DOCSLIB.ORG

LONG WAVES, DEPIEZSSION, LND INNOVATION: Nrplicatioks for NATIONAL and Etzcional ECONOIDC POLICY

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
LONG WAVES, DEPIEZSSION, LND INNOVATION: Nrplicatioks for NATIONAL and Etzcional ECONOIDC POLICY SO? FOR QC'OTATIOS WT3IOl.T PERESXOY OF Td ALTOR LONG WAVES, DEPIEZSSION, LND INNOVATION: nrPLICATIOKS FOR NATIONAL AND EtZCIONAL ECONOIDC POLICY GiPliano EIAVCIII Gerh~rtS~U~\T Jos DELBZE Tibor VASXO Editors Cbkboruttve hpwsrepor? work which has not been performed solely at the International Institute for Applied System Analysis and which has received only llmlted revlew. Views or opinions erp~cssedherein do not necessarily represent those of the M- tute, its .National Member Orgmkatians, or other orgauk~tions sa;?pof.hg the work. The opening sentences in the IIASA Charter speak about the problems gen- erated by industrialization. Therefore industry, technology, and the economy have been implicitly or explicitly embodied in most of the Institute's projects. The first big IIASA research program, on energy, naturally entailed studying the impacts and dynamics of technology diffusion. This was the first research at the Institute to touch on the possible causes of long-term economic growth. Later studies of the management of innovation acknowledged the need to understand the interaction of technological with economic (and social) development beyond the frame of classical and neoclassical economics. One particular question reflected that need: How could cyclical influences be distinguished from structural ones? We tried to gain a better view by doing some case studies, which only increased our conviction that examination of these issues promised to be rewarding. The small meeting on long waves that we started to arrange eventually developed into a conference. The way the conference was organized and the cooperation it engendered further demonstrated that studies of these issues are timely. The problem that the organizers had to face was how to make maximum use of all the creative potential of the participants. It was therefore decided to arrange the conference in the following way: Ful! papers describing results of research on long waves were distri- buted before the conference and not read to the audience. Position papers on particular topics were selected before the confer- ence so as to focus attention on the most important issues; the ensuing discussions and comments captured interesting views and ideas, reflect- ing the creative atmosphere of the meeting. This proceedings volume is structured accordingly: Parts I and I1 consist of a selection of the papers and comments on the five topics, and Part I11 includes further discussion by various participants. Part I starts with J. Delbeke's, paper which gives an overview of the conference. This paper is particularly useful for those who are making a first acquaintance with this topic. We were also fortunate that several complete models or position papers on different long-wave schools were submitted to us. To keep the proceedings volume to a manageable and economic length, we were obliged to publish several of the papers submitted (by A. Piatier, A. Kleinknecht, 3. Sterman, and J. Delbeke) separately as IIASA Collabora- tive Papers. We feel that this strikes a sensible middle course between the need to document the conference's work and the dictates of size and finance. The presence of leading representatives of different theories of long waves made it possible to gain first-hand insight into the state of the art, as well as to hear about the more promising directions for further research. Most meetings on long waves tend to be exclusively economy oriented, but the SienaRlorence meeting was rather different. Consistent with IIASA's interdisci- plinary role, representatives of other disciplines were present and it is worth recording that researchers working in biology, demography and sociology hinted, in their contributions, at mechanisms studied in their own disciplines that could also lead to long-wave phenomena. In spite of the fact that many economists do not accept the existence of long waves as proven, the majority of scientists at the meeting did not question the existence or relevance of long-wave phenomena, irrespective of their cause. Nevertheless, it is extremely difficult to identify long-wave phenomena and several participants mentioned the problems to be expected in such investigations. IIASA and IRPET both focus on policy orientation and policy instruments. Pro- ponents of a!! the theories represented were united in the idea that numerous phenomena could be better understood by applying long-wave theories. This understanding is essential for the design of optimal policies; therefore it appears that future research into long-wave issues is both desirable and necessary. We were very fortunate to have the support of our Italian hosts at an early stage in the development, preparation and organization the Conference. It is also to their credit that the meeting surpassed al! expectations as far as scientific cov- erage of the topics and international representation was concerned, and we owe them our thanks for their warmth and generosity. Finally, the meeting in Siena and Florence was exceptional, both in that its scope was wide and that it integrated the work of researchers from East and West. The publication of this proceedings volume was fraught with more than the usual amount of difficulties and changes of plan. Our thanks are due to many IIASA staff members without whose perseverance and hard work we would have been unable to bring the volume to a successful conclusion. Tibor Vasko Gerhart Bruckmann The Conference which led to these proceedings would not have taken place without the generous support of Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Regione Toscana, Comune di Firenze. Giuliano BIANCHI Thomas H. LEE Director Director IRPET IIASA CONTENTS THE FIVE TOPICS 1 VIDEO MESSAGE 3 Jan Rnbergen PART I - PAPERS ON TOPICS 1-5 Long-Wave Research: The State of the Art, Anno 1983 7 Jos DeLbeke The Long Wave as a Metaphor: Suggestions from Ecology 29 hul Craig and Kenneth Watt The Interaction of Investment and Debt in the Long Wave 45 Jos DeLbeke and Erik Schokkaert Disequilibrium, Innovation, and Periodicity in Economic Development 65 Sam1 Islam On Theory Integration: Toward Economies of Scope 69 Gerhard Mensch On Long Waves in the Economy 75 S. Menshikou and L. Klimenko Toward a Comprehensive Theory of Long Waves 103 CurLota Perez-Perez Elastic Mechanisms of Intercountry Attraction of Logistic Industrial Growth 109 Roberto Vacca The Macroeconomic Potential 113 Gunter Haag Long Waves in a Larger Context 129 Johann MLLendover On the Statistical Identification of Long Waves 149 Herman Wold Some Obser-vations on the Limits of Industrial Policy 153 Gerhard Rosegger Italian Multiregional Development: Long Waves and Regional Take-Off s. Preliminary Findings 155 QiuLiano Bianchi, Stcfano Cusini-&nuenuti, and Giovanni Maltinti Long-Term Economic Fluctuations: A Spatial View 173 Bter Nijkamp vii PART I1 - COMMENTS ON TOPICS 1-5 Topic 1: Theories of the Long Wave Jacob J. van Dui jn 193 Revold M. Entov 199 Jay W. Forrester, Alan K. Graham, Peter M. Senge, and John D. Sterman. An Integrated Approach to the Economic Long-Wave 203 Christopher Freeman and Luc Soete 211 Hans H. Glismann 215 Topic 2: Identification of Long Waves Jay W. Forrester, Alan K. Graham, Peter M. Senge, and John D. Sterman 223 Hans H. Glismann 229 Topic 3: Theory Testing and Integration Jay W. Forrester, Alan K. Graham, Peter M. Senge, and John D. Sterman 233 Topic 4: Possibilities for Influencing Long-Wave Behavior Jay W. Forrester, Alan K. Graham, Peter M. Senge, and John D. Sterman 237 Christopher Freeman and Luc Soete 243 Tomrnaso Sinibaldi 247 Topic 5: National and Regional Aspects Jacob J. van Duijn 249 Jay W. Forrester, Alan K. Graham, Peter M. Senge, and John D. Sterman 255 Christopher Freeman and Luc Soete 261 PART III - ORAL COKMENTS/DISCUSSIONS Hans H. Glismann 267 Richard M. Goodwin 271 Gerald Silverberg 273 Roberto Vacca 277 BPPENDICES Consensus of Participants 281 List of Participants and Observers 283 THE FIYE TOPICS TOPIC 1: Theories of the Long Wave What are the basic alternative theories of the long-wave? To what extent are they competing or complementary? What is the most meaningful taxonomy of long-wave theories? TOPIC 2: Identification of Long Waves To what extent can the long wave be clearly distinguished empirically from busi- ness and Ktmets cycles? What are the specific problems and ambiguities in attempting to identify historid long waves? To what extent aar~ the uausal mechanisms underlying different cycles be distinguished? Is it possible for a sin- gle, all-enaompassing model to represent the diverse mechanisms underlying the different cycles? Topic 3: Theory Testing and Integration What is the range of appropriate tests for alternative theories of the long-wave? Are conventional econometric methods appropriate? What can computer simulation contribute to testing theories of the long-wave? Is it possible to develop valid tests given the paucity of long-term time series data? How close are we to an integrated theory of the long wave? What specific methodologies exist to integrate theories and test their relative explanatory power? TOPIC 4: Possibilities for Influencing Long-Wave Behavior To what extent can the long wave be Mluenaed by economic policy? What funcla- mental parsmeters and structures seem most important for determining the period of the long wave? How do the policy options that can potentially influenoe long- wave behavior vary from the expansion phase to the downturn phase? If advanced economies are in the downturn phase of the long wave, what meaningful policy options currently exist
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Long Waves in the Pre- Industrial Period: a Time Series Analysis of Soviet Researchers' Data
    Arthur Mustafin LONG WAVES IN THE PRE- INDUSTRIAL PERIOD: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF SOVIET RESEARCHERS’ DATA BASIC RESEARCH PROGRAM WORKING PAPERS SERIES: HUMANITIES WP BRP 177/HUM/2019 This Working Paper is an output of a research project implemented within NRU HSE’s Annual Thematic Plan for Basic and Applied Research. Any opinions or claims contained in this Working Paper do not necessarily reflect the views of HSE. Arthur Mustafin1 LONG WAVES IN THE PRE-INDUSTRIAL PERIOD: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF SOVIET RESEARCHERS’ DATA2 Kondratiev long cycle is generally treated as a phenomenon of a modern world economy. However, the existence of major cycles before the Industrial Revolution does not contradict the theoretical views of Kondratiev, the founder of the long-waves theory. We have discovered Kondratiev’s documents, which show him going farther back in history. The key question we are trying to answer is why are major cycles not associated with a pre-industrial economy? We also have at our disposal a number of unknown and little-known historiographical sources, which indicate that Soviet researchers cared about the existence of long cycles in the pre- industrial period. At the same time, Soviet scientists had done a tremendous amount of work to construct the time series on historical data of Russia. Using this data, we concluded that the existence of Kondratiev waves in the Russian Empire was very probable. Keywords: long waves, Kondratiev cycles, pre-industrial economy, grain prices, time series analysis. JEL Classification: Z. 1Arthur Mustafin, National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE), Moscow, Russia.
    [Show full text]
  • From Long Waves to Great Surges: Continuing in the Direction of Chris Freeman's 1997 Lecture on Schumpeter's Business Cycles
    From long waves to great surges: continuing in the direction of Chris Freeman's 1997 lecture on Schumpeter's Business Cycles Carlota Perez1 Published in EJESS (European Journal of Economic and Social Systems) Vol. 27 No. 1-2/2015 pp. 69-80 From individual innovations and systems to technological revolutions ............................. 1 Abandoning 'Kondratiev long waves' for 'great surges' ..................................................... 3 The research consequences of the shift of focus ............................................................. 3 Re-examining the historical record ................................................................................... 5 Patterns of recurrence and policy implications ................................................................. 7 By the time Chris Freeman was preparing his La Tuscia lecture in the late 1990s, the impact of ICT was already massive and the use of the term ‘revolution’ to refer to it had become commonplace. The need to follow Schumpeter's lead in reaching a deeper understanding of technological revolutions and their relationship to business cycles seemed crucial; all the more so as we suspected that the key to economic upswings and downswings was the shift from mismatch to match between each revolution and the socio-institutional framework. Confirming this would have important policy implications. A few years later the results of our efforts appeared in print: As Time Goes By: From the Industrial Revolutions to the Information Revolution (Freeman and Louça 2001; henceforth referred to as ATGB) and Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: the Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages (Perez 2002; referred to as TRFC). Both books continued in the direction that Chris had signaled at the end of his lecture: namely, "overcoming some of the weaknesses in Schumpeter's pioneering formulation" as being "the best tribute to the spirit of his work".
    [Show full text]
  • Chapter 1 a Look Inside the Economic Growth Engine
    Chapter 1 A Look Inside the Economic Growth Engine Economic growth has been a powerful force for reduc- This opening chapter takes a look inside the economic ing poverty, creating jobs and improving general living growth engine. It starts by establishing key stylized standards. However, it cannot be taken for granted. facts about economic growth throughout history (sec- Before the 18th century the world economy saw little tion 1.1). It then explores the channels through which in- growth. Poverty was widespread and any substantial novation drives long-term growth (section 1.2). Against improvement in living standards for more than the this background, the chapter takes a closer look at the privileged few was beyond imagining. Since then, the innovation process, exploring how frontier innovations world economy has grown at an unprecedented pace come about and how they disseminate within and – greatly improving the quality of life and generating across economies (section 1.3). With these building widespread material prosperity. Even so, some na- blocks laid, the discussion moves on to consider the tional economies have seen faster and more sustained various ways in which different IP rights affect innova- growth than others, leaving wide disparities in the tion and knowledge diffusion outcomes (section 1.4). prosperity of nations today. The final section ponders what growth prospects the future may hold in the wake of the recent financial What explains the variations in growth observed crisis (section 1.5). throughout history? Scholars have long puzzled over this. The onset of gradually faster growth in the sec- ond half of the 18th century prompted the first theories 1.1 – Economic growth of economic growth – as proposed, for example, by throughout history Adam Smith, David Ricardo, Thomas Robert Malthus and John Stuart Mill.1 Important insights have emerged For much of human history, economic growth was sim- since then.
    [Show full text]
  • The Theory of Long Waves and Institutional Сhanges
    PRACE NAUKOWE UNIWERSYTETU EKONOMICZNEGO WE WROCŁAWIU RESEARCH PAPERS OF WROCŁAW UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS nr 509 ● 2018 ISSN 1899-3192 e-ISSN 2392-0041 Anna Horodecka SGH Warsaw School of Economics e-mail: [email protected] Liudmyla Vozna Independent researcher e-mail: [email protected] THE THEORY OF LONG WAVES AND INSTITUTIONAL СHANGES: THE MEMORY OF GENERATIONS HYPOTHESIS TEORIA DŁUGICH FAL I ZMIANY INSTYTUCJONALNE: HIPOTEZA O PAMIĘCI POKOLEŃ DOI: 10.15611/pn.2018.509.08 JEL Classification: D02; D7; E02; E32; Z13 Summary: The article regards the main conceptions of the long Kondratiev wave and pro- poses the hypothesis that connects the length of the K-wave with change of generations. Ac- cording to the article’s hypothesis, a major historical event (e.g. a war or a deep economic recession) that happens in a society at a given time t causes the creation of some institutions designed to mitigate the consequences of this event and avoid its recurrence in the future. With a change of generations, the historical memory about the t-event is weakening, and this leads to the erosion of mentioned institutions increasing risks of the emergence of similar events. So the article attempts to demonstrate that some problems faced by modern Western society can also be associated with the cycle described in the article. Keywords: long Kondratiev wave, social upheaval, change of generations, erasure of histori- cal memory, erosion of institutions. Streszczenie: Artykuł dotyczy głównych koncepcji długich fal Kondratiewa i stawia się w nim hipotezę o związku długości fal K ze zmianą pokoleń. Zgodnie z hipotezami zaproponowanymi w artykule, ważne wydarzenia społeczne i polityczne, zachodzące w społeczeństwie w danym czasie t, powodują powstanie instytucji mających złagodzić skutki tego wydarzenia i uniknąć jego powtórzenia się w przyszłości.
    [Show full text]
  • The Run of Gold During the Great Recession
    The Run of Gold during the Great Recession The study of the behavior of gold during periods of recessions has been one of the most favorite studies, especially for gold bugs. As the economy slows, the recessionary pressures usually lead to expansionary monetary policies from the central banks, leading to higher gold prices during such periods, or so goes the theory. Gold, which has been considered as a safe haven since the decoupling with currencies is still considered by many to be the currency in its purest form. There are arguments both for and against the current monetary policies being followed by central banks. Critics are often quick to point out that the current era of fiat money is well overdue its expiration time. Be that as it may, gold which doesn’t yield anything often outperforms during periods of economic, monetary and political uncertainty. This is even more evident during recessions. However, although this theory seems to be straightforward on paper, there have been many research papers published which interestingly tie the growth rate of GDP to gold prices. The reasoning behind this being that when the consumer incomes rises, it puts more money in the hands of consumers, which ultimately creates demand for gold and thus moves gold higher. This is in stark opposite to widely accepted convention that gold performs better as a safe haven during periods of economic contractions. According to a report by the World Gold Council, the paper found that during rising GDP, demand for gold actually falls, but shows a small increase largely from demand for jewelry consumption.
    [Show full text]
  • Determinants of the Sustainable Development of the Modern World
    Novi Ekonomist Submitted: 24.05.2019. Vol 13(1), Year XIII, Issue 25, january - june 2019. Accepted: 13.06.2019. ISSN 1840-2313 (Print) 2566-333X (Online) Review DOI: 10.7251/NOE1925045M UDK: 316.334.5:502.131.1 DETERMINANTS OF THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODERN WORLD Ivan Mirović University of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Business Economics Bijeljina, Republic of Srpska, BIH [email protected] Paper presented at the 7th International Scientific Symposium „EkonBiz: Modern business in the function of the development of the national economy“, Bijeljina, 20-21nd June 2019. Abstract: Paradigm of sustainable development is 8. Dignified work and economic growth not a stationary state but a global resolution of 9. Industry, innovation and infrastructure problem in a peacefully manner across the 10. Reducing inequality planetary boundaries. It is a normative (ethical) 11. Sustainable cities and communities concept, an analytical concept, the science about 12. Responsible Consumption and Production complex systems, and at the same time a saving 13. Preserving the climate formula of the global survival of the world and the 14. Preservation of life below water most complex human challenge in the 21st century. 15. Preserving life on earth As an ideal this is a utopian concept, there are no 16. Peace, justice and strong institutions reliable scientific arguments in support of its 17. Partnerships for the goals. realisation and predictable time proximity. As an idea, it is a call to mobilizs the whole of mankind. The stated goals are in the function of social The basic thesis and problem, whether and to what mobilization, mobilization of the "knowledge extent sustainable development is achievable or if community", direction of action and positive it remains a fiction and a real danger of excessive pressure on the actors in achieving the goals.
    [Show full text]
  • Heseltine Institute Working Paper
    Heseltine Institute Working Paper Universal Basic Income as emergency measure and enduring reform Dr Matthew Thompson Leverhulme Trust Early Career Fellow Heseltine Institute for Public Policy, Practice and Place May 2020 Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................. 2 An emergency response to crisis ............................................................................................................ 4 Plugging the gaps in welfare ........................................................................................................... 5 Revaluing and transforming work ................................................................................................... 6 Helicopter money to the rescue? ................................................................................................... 6 A modern debt jubilee .................................................................................................................... 7 So what’s the big idea? ........................................................................................................................... 9 The Automation theorists ............................................................................................................... 9 The Egalitarian mainstream ............................................................................................................ 9 Neoliberal ‘negative income tax’ .................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • The Unintended Consequences of Government Intrusion Into the Economy Kevin Sigler, Phd1
    Business Management Dynamics Vol.6, No.9, Mar 2017, pp.07-11 The Unintended Consequences of Government Intrusion into the Economy Kevin Sigler, PhD1 Abstract Key words: bubble, The government’s intrusion into the private sector to save companies and Quantitative Easing, Federal stimulate the economy during hard times has played a major role in causing the Reserve Bank, bail out next set of problems for the economy. Many think that the bank failures of 2008 were fueled by government actions beginning in 2001 when the Federal Reserve Bank began printing money as well as slashing its main interest rate to combat an economic slowdown resulting from the tech bubble popping. The Fed’s intervention produced the housing bubble crash of 2008. The government responded to the housing crash by bailing out many of the failing institutions Available online using taxpayer money. It also created a Quantitative Easing (QE) program to www.bmdynamics.com keep banks solvent and stimulate the economy through the Fed printing up ISSN: 2047-7031 trillions of dollars and buying treasury bonds and mortgage backed securities with it. This created liquidity for banks and reduced interest rates to near zero. The low rates and liquidity provided by the QE program have fueled a stock market bubble that may pop and cause numerous dislocations in the population that may surpass the Great Depression in severity. It appears that in this century when the government steps in to save companies and help revive the economy it ends up costing the tax-payers money and creates an environment to facilitate the next economic disaster.
    [Show full text]
  • Uva-DARE (Digital Academic Repository)
    UvA-DARE (Digital Academic Repository) Essays on globalization: a journey to a possibly new stage of capitalism Went, R.C.P.M. Publication date 2001 Link to publication Citation for published version (APA): Went, R. C. P. M. (2001). Essays on globalization: a journey to a possibly new stage of capitalism. UvA. General rights It is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), other than for strictly personal, individual use, unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons). Disclaimer/Complaints regulations If you believe that digital publication of certain material infringes any of your rights or (privacy) interests, please let the Library know, stating your reasons. In case of a legitimate complaint, the Library will make the material inaccessible and/or remove it from the website. Please Ask the Library: https://uba.uva.nl/en/contact, or a letter to: Library of the University of Amsterdam, Secretariat, Singel 425, 1012 WP Amsterdam, The Netherlands. You will be contacted as soon as possible. UvA-DARE is a service provided by the library of the University of Amsterdam (https://dare.uva.nl) Download date:07 Oct 2021 55 Capitalism and stages of accumulation Thiss chapter proposes an approach to distinguishing different periods in thee history of capitalism. While periodization is alien to conventional economicc theory, non-mainstream economics has provided three theoreticall frameworks: the Regulation approach, the Social Structure of Accumulationn approach, and a variant of long wave theories.
    [Show full text]
  • The Big Picture with Kondratiev and Kardashev
    Trim Size: 8.5in x 10.87in k DeBrouwer - 08/26/2020 1:14pm Page 3 ♣ 1 ♣ The Big Picture with Kondratiev and Kardashev You have certainly heard the words: “data is the new oil,” and you probably wondered “are we indeedonthevergeofaneweraofinnovationandwealthcreationor...isthisjusthypeandwill it blow over soon enough?” Since our ancestors left the trees about 6 million years ago, we roamed the African steppes and we evolved a more upright position and limbs better suited for walking than climbing. However, for about 4 million years physiological changes did not include a larger brain. It is only in the last million years that we gradually evolved a more potent frontal lobe capable of abstract and logical thinking. The first good evidence of abstract thinking is the Makapansgat pebble, a jasperite cobble– k k roughly 260 g and 5 by 8 cm – that by geological tear and wear shows a few holes and lines that vaguely resemble (to us) a human face. About 2.5 million years ago one of our australopithecine ancestors not only realized this resemblance but also deemed it interesting enough to pick up the pebble, keep it, and finally leave it in a cave miles from the river where it was found. This development of abstract thinking that goes beyond vague resemblance was a major mile- stone. As history unfolded, it became clear that this was only the first of many steps that would lead us to the era of data and knowledge that we live in today. Many more steps towards more abstract thinking complex and abstract thinking, gene mutations and innovation would be needed.
    [Show full text]
  • Critical Analyses of Economic Cycles Theories Критичний Аналіз Теорій
    10 Класичний приватний університет UDC 330.33/330.83(043.3)(100) Gaidey D.A. Assistant of the International Economics Department, Donetsk National University CRITICAL ANALYSES OF ECONOMIC CYCLES THEORIES КРИТИЧНИЙ АНАЛІЗ ТЕОРІЙ ЕКОНОМІЧНИХ ЦИКЛІВ ANNOTATION Statement of the problem. The increas- This paper provides analyses of economic cycles ing frequency and severity of financial theories. It examines into economic cycles according to and economic crises over the past three their periodicity, explores the theoretical background and formulates the basics of the mechanism of the Kitchin decades have raised important questions inventory cycles of 3-5 years, the Juglar fixed investment about background of such emergencies. cycles of 7-11 years, the Kuznets infrastructural invest- Explanation the externalities of upturns ment cycles of 15-25 years), the Kondratiev long tech- and downturns in world economy could be nological cycles of 45-60 years. It studies different clas- provided with understanding the nature sifications of economic cycles and covers main causes, of cyclic economic transformations. Rep- which drive periodical fluctuations in business activity. Keywords: the Kitchin inventory cycle, the Juglar resentation the mechanism of cyclic fluc- fixed investment cycle, the Kuznets infrastructural in- tuation of economy is important tool for vestment cycle , the Kondratiev wave or long technolog- effective economic policy, which enables ical cycle, expansion, stagnation, recession, economic government to forecast possible scenarios
    [Show full text]
  • For Publication / Submission
    Munich Personal RePEc Archive On the mathematic prediction of economic and social crises: toward a harmonic interpretation of the Kondratiev wave Albers, Scott and Albers, Andrew L. Attorney-at-Law, University of Missouri- Columbia, School of Law 30 March 2012 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37771/ MPRA Paper No. 37771, posted 31 Mar 2012 22:34 UTC On the Mathematic Prediction of Economic and Social Crises: Toward a Harmonic Interpretation of the Kondratiev Wave By Scott A. Albers and Andrew L. Albers Abstract: In Part One of this paper we use the harmonic analogy of a musical octave to analyze mathematic ratios of U.S. real GNP. These ratios are generated by bringing together figures for U.S. real GNP over intervals of time – “spreads of years” – as numerator and denominator in a single fraction. Using a range of 7-year to 18-year “spreads,” we find that this approach provides strong evidence that American economic history is composed of four 14- year quarter-cycles within a 56 year circuit in the real GNP of the United States, 1869-2007. These periods correlate closely with analysis by Nickolai Kondratiev and provide a framework for predicting an annual steady state rate of growth for the United States falling between 3.4969% and 3.4995% per year. In Part Two of this paper we provide three postscripts including: (1) correlations / speculations on the political and social consequences of this model, (2) simplification / expansion of the geometries implied and (3) analysis / prediction based upon this approach, as concluded by a brief afterword.
    [Show full text]