The Polish debate on the White Paper about the future of Europe. What are the scenarios for the ?

2017 The future of the EU Introduction

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Europe Direct is a service that will help you find answers to your questions about the European Union. Since 2008, the European Union has been operat- Marek Prawda, Ph.D. The number of the free hotline (*): ing in a crisis management mode – from the finan- Director of the 00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 cial and debt crises, through the Ukrainian crisis, to (*) information is provided free of charge, most calls are also free Representation the refugee crisis. Overcoming, or significantly re- (some operators, hotels or public telephones may charge you). of the European ducing, the symptoms of these crises has enabled Commission the European Union to think about moving from in crisis management mode, from the logic of fires More information on the European Union fighting, to that of managing future challenges can be found on Europa (http://europa.eu). and renewing the EU itself. In the crisis-manage- Representation of the European Commission in Poland ment phase, the issue of Member States was the ul. Jasna 14/16a | 00-041 first to emerge and now the time has come to im- tel. (+48) 22 556 89 89 | faks (+48) 22 556 89 98 e-mail [email protected] prove the functioning of the EU as a whole, set out Twitter @EUinPL new goals and strengthen crisis prevention tools. Facebook www.facebook.com/komisjaeuropejska/ The time has also come for a more active role for ISBN: 978-92-79-81026-8 the European Commission. Its chairman Jean- doi: 10.2775/85829 Claude Juncker has formulated five scenarios for European integration in the coming years. The sce- © European Union, 2017 narios set out in March 2017 in the White Paper on Reproduction is allowed provided their source is acknowledged. the Future of Europe have become the basis for Printed in Poland discussions on the development of the EU.

1 ”Every good project This debate was held in election year in several tion is a review and summary of the opinions. the EU, as well convincing a smaller group who looks to the future important EU countries: the Netherlands, Thanks to it, we also learned more about our- think it won’t work. The President of the Com- (...) The founding France and , as well as in the shadow selves, about how we perceive the integration mission, however, wanted to do everything to fathers had of terrorist attacks and other dramatic events project thirteen years after joining the EU. The prevent the latter opinion from happening a clear awareness prompting European public opinion to recog- culmination of the pan-European debate, in and therefore proposed entering a path of of being part of nise security as an important aspect in its eval- which Poles had a visible participation, under- completing large integration projects, such as a collective project uation of this essentially inclusive project. pinned the proposals set out by Jean-Claude the Schengen Area, economic and monetary that transcended Fears also appeared that politics might be- Juncker, Chairman of the Commission, which union, banking union and the development of the boundaries of come dominated by populist anti-European- he presented in his Address on the State of the new initiatives in the field of European de- not only states, ism. At the end of 2017, one could already say Union on 13 September 2017. fence. He argued that if we manage to get eve- but also times, to that although populism had not overturned ryone on this road, then a multi-speed Europe bring together the European political order, it had become a per- Juncker’s offer was addressed to all member will become an irrelevance over time. generations, all manent element of the political scene. states and represents a new, sixth, scenario for equally involved in development of the EU, supplementing and An alternative to Juncker’s offer would be the building a shared On the other hand, we have been observing developing those presented in March 2017. vision of variegated integration rings, separat- home” . a kind of pro-European awakening, mobilisa- Juncker drew conclusions from improve- ed from each other, as well as from the EU pe- Pope Francis tion of societies worried about a scenario in ments in the economic situation and an- riphery. But this is a false alternative based on Rome, on the 60th Anniversary of the signing which we could throw away the EU’s integra- nounced the crisis had ended. He appealed exclusion and not on the European principles of the Treaty of Rome. tional achievements. for optimism and announced the strengthen- of community commitments and inclusion. ing of instruments enabling us to better pro- Juncker made an attempt to bridge the di- Both tendencies provide the background and tect the achievements of interdependence vide between real and exaggerated differ- are an indispensable point of reference for re- and openness. He advocated a stance that is ences. His offer focused on what connects flections on the future of the EU. It should be free of what he called ‘ideological corsets,’ Europe, while maintaining the maximum 2012 taken into account that a growing number of seeking a synthesis of liberal and social solu- flexibility that takes into account many views The date the European Union was awarded citizens will be assessing the EU today in terms tions. He said he wanted to consolidate on issues such as the final date of accession of the Nobel Peace Prize of its ability to protect them from the negative a broad camp of supporters of openness and a given country to the eurozone. What unites for its role in uniting the effects of processes which it itself once initiat- cooperation: on the left and right of the po- us should be emphasised and that which di- Old Continent, in the ed (globalisation and free trade, openness and litical scene. vides us placed in the right proportions so as process of its reconstruction diversity). not to deepen such divisions. after the Second World War and the introduction At the same time, Juncker realised that there of changes in the Eastern A discussion devoted to the evolution of the are many supporters of deepening integra- bloc countries after the EU was also held in Poland and this publica- tion, and thus improving the functioning of collapse of the USSR.

2 3 Table of White Paper on the future of Europe content Scenarios

White Paper on the future of Europe – scenarios 5 On 1 March 2017, the European 3rd scenario: Commission published a White Paper Those who want more, do more 6th scenario “Catching wind in the sails” 6 on the future of Europe,* containing Some EU countries create “coalitions of the – Jean-Claude Juncker five scenarios. It also prepared willing” to intensify the coordination of activi- additional documents on exploiting ties in some areas (e.g. defence, internal secu- Europe – it’s complicated 8 the opportunities arising from rity, taxation), including special legal and Common values 10 globalisation, deepening economic budget arrangements, as is the case with the and monetary union, the future Schengen Area or the eurozone. The status of Economy and market 14 of European defence, EU nation states other states remains unchanged and eventu- European Union – map 18 and the social dimension. ally those who do more are able to join in.

Internal security and migrations 20 1st scenario: 4th scenario: Continuation Do less together, but more efficiently Europe and the world 24 The EU-27 deals with implementation of the The EU-27 decides to concentrate its atten- Shape of the EU 28 current reform programme. Priorities are reg- tion and limited resources on a smaller num- ularly updated and problems resolved on a reg- ber of areas. As a result, it is able to act faster Conclusions and recommendations 32 ular basis. The pace of decision-making pro- and more decisively in selected priority areas. cesses depends on overcoming differences in views. 5th scenario: Do much more together 2nd scenario: Member States decide to share more powers, We limit ourselves to the market resources and decisions in all areas. Coopera- PUBLICATION prepared for the Representation of the European Commission in Poland. The EU focuses on deepening key aspects of tion goes much deeper. the single market. There is no common deci-

Text: dr Małgorzata Bonikowska sion to cooperate in areas such as migration, Cooperation: Agnieszka Ostrowska security or defence. Common policies are Design and composition: Katarzyna Zbytniewska gradually reduced and cooperation on new Translation: Jo Harper issues is based primarily on bilateral contacts. Printing: BETAGRAF Photos: Representation of the European Commission in Poland, Małgorzata Bonikowska, archives of the events analysed in this publication

*https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/white_paper_on_the_future_of_europe_en.pdf

4 5 6th scenario “Catching wind in the sails”

“In Europe, the force In the annual State of the Union  We have strengthened the of law has replaced Communication on September 13, 2017, foundations of Economic and the law of force (...) the President of the European Commission, Monetary Union to be able to defend The EU is not a state, Jean-Claude Juncker, described his vision our common currency, in both good but a community for the future of Europe. and bad times and we do not have of laws” . to ask for outside help; Jean-Claude Juncker In his opinion, the worst has passed, and thus President of the European Commission we should use the economic recovery to “catch  The single market to be fairer the wind in our sails” and go forward at a new for employees, both from speed. The EU is there to protect, strengthen the East and the West; and defend us, he said. The creation of an en- “Europe must ergy union, a security union, a union of capital  We manage to reach an agreement breathe with markets, a banking union and a single market on strong social standards; both lungs. for digital content must be completed, as well “Europe is only Otherwise, as a consensus on reforming the common asy-  Profits taxed where they moving forward there will be lum system and strengthening the provisions have been earned; when it is brave no air” . for movement of workers. enough”  Terrorists do not have any . Jean-Claude Juncker The regulation cannot decide on the future of legal loopholes to use; Jean-Claude Juncker President of the European President of the European Commission Europe. This must be the result of a democrat- Commission ic debate and, ultimately, a broad consensus.  We agree on the creation of Juncker’s scenario assumes that the European a genuine European Defence Union; people will wake up in an EU in which we are all faithful to our values, namely:  One Chairman, elected in a democratic all-European electoral campaign, to manage the work  All Member States strictly respect of the Commission the rule of law; and the European Council.

 Full membership in the eurozone,

banking union and the Schengen Area * http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release is the norm for all Member States; _SPEECH-17-3165_en.htm

6 7 Europe Complex interdependencies

NATO

Canada United States European Union of America (USA)

Council of Europe Polish Debates Eurozone EFTA (European Free Trade Association) • Common values, roots Schengen Area austria Belgium estonia finland Czech Republic lichtenstein Switzerland Armenia and identities of Europe • Economy and market France Germany Greece Italy Denmark Norway Azerbaijan • Migration and internal

Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg malta Hungary Iceland Bosnia and Herzegovina security • Europe and the world Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Poland Georgia • The shape of the EU Spain Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Cyprus Ireland Russia Moldova The European Economic Area Economic European The

Bulgaria Croatia Romania United Kingdom (UK) serbia Montenegro

albania Ukraine European Andorra monaco san marino Turkey Custom Union

8 9 Common values Europe’s roots and identities

Public opinion polls show that Polish Back to roots At the same time, the process of decolonisa- society is deeply rooted in Europe and tied tion was taking place, which contributed to an to the most important values of the West. The Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netan- increase in migration of people from other cul- When asked what is more important, yahu, in a meeting with the prime ministers of tural backgrounds. As a result, the old EU (the democracy or prosperity, 59 percent the Visegrad Group in Budapest, said that Eu- West) ceased to be clear, underwent excessive said the former and 40 percent the latter. rope must decide whether to live and develop political correctness, moved in a direction of 2 Over half of the respondents see further, or wither and disappear . Similar opin- over-tolerance and finally began to glorify the The Warsaw Global Forum the West as a source of values, culture ions can also be heard in Warsaw. According to behaviour it had once fought against. By enter- and intellectual development the right, Europe is in an historical corner and ing the EU, Poland thus began to distance itself and 79 percent are against the policy of cannot get out of it without returning to its from its own identify. The pro-Western elite of President Vladimir Putin’s administration. roots and values. The Western world has found the Third Republic of Poland, composed most- “EU standards in the As much as 83 percent support EU itself on the brink of collapse and the main rea- ly of people from the new (post-communist) field of subsidiarity, membership and 81 percent son lies in the loss of a “civilisational spine” - system, imposed on Poles their own narrative greater social are in favour of maintaining Christian morality and soft and hard power. and perception of the world, in awe of cosmo- participation and a close relationship Europeans are no longer ready to fight for politan attitudes, which weakened the civic administrative with the US1. their civilisation or die for it. sense of connection with their own nation and culture have led its history. to a situation where Right-wing circles in Poland see the EU as even in matters The substantive debate about the future of Eu- a source of threat rather than opportunities As a result, Europe is unable today to formulate of planning rope in Poland is, however, strongly shaped by today. This induces them to redefine the role a proper development strategy or defend her- or implementing two polarised groups - supporters and oppo- of the organisation in shaping the future of self against other civilisations. But Old Europe local strategies, nents of the ruling camp - which has imposed Poland. They believe that Western Europe can draw on new energy to fight for its future local governments its own political narrative. For each of the par- has evolved in the opposite direction to and the principle of survival from the New Eu- work differently” . ties, the point of reference is the current situa- those intended by the founders of European rope – the countries of Central and Eastern Eu- Adam Jarubas tion in Europe and activities of EU institutions communities from the centre-right group- rope that preserved old European values dur- Marshal of the Świętokrzyskie province on the key issues for the EU as well as current ings (Robert Schuman, Konrad Adenauer, Al- ing the Cold War. The remedy, according to the [a statement made during tensions in Brussels-Warsaw relations. Al- cide de Gasperi). Over time, civilisation, based Polish right is, therefore, a return to Christian the Conference on Poland’s Development Challenges though both sides have a different vision of the on Christian social morals – and Europe under roots and the construction of a “non-liberal de- in Europe. The future future of the EU, they agree that the basis for its the influence of France - adopted a secular- mocracy.” of the European Union, development should be values. liberal direction, opening up to ‘Otherness.’ in ].

10 11 ”The economic crisis, distrust of elites and migration have A similar position is represented by the Polish could form the union of our dreams and be rope. An EU of different speeds would only meant a wave Church. It stresses that separating politics one of its most important members. For the deepen distrust and make reform difficult. This of populism and from values has created an ideological vacu- first time in centuries we can have a significant was clearly expressed by President Andrzej nationalism flooding um in Europe. impact on the fate of the West, taking part in Duda: ‘If Europe is formally divided into better not only Europe. decisions concerning Poland as well. We are and worse countries, it will lose much of its at- This is evidence Europe as a value therefore wasting an historic opportunity.” tractiveness in the opinion of members con- that the economic sidered to belong to the second category.’3 and social model “Opposition circles as opposed to the govern- “Europe was shaped by Christianity, but also has been somewhat ment see the question of European values dif- by the Reformation, Enlightenment and the The key to maintaining European unity is to lacking. Our task is ferently. French Revolution. There would be no Euro- find a common basis for all member states to to defend European In their opinion, it is Western civilisation that pean communities without the idea of the make decisions. Currently, they carry ”different values and the Poland has been a part of for a thousand years, rule of law and civil rights. We should there- weight” and not every voice is listened to just achievements of best expressing Polish values and political and fore establish the core of the EU, which every- as carefully. recent decades” socio-cultural affiliation. Despite crises, Eu- one must accept. It is enshrined in art. 2 of the . rope is still the best place to live, as evidenced Treaty of Lisbon and the Charter of Funda- Dr Henryka Bochniarz President of the Lewiatan by the wave of migration from Africa and Asia. mental Rights (Article 6), but diluted by popu- confederation Poland, with its potential, could join in shaping lists and radicals. This means the observance [statement made during the European Forum its fate along with other Western countries. of a common political order based on democ- of New Ideas in Sopot] racy, the rule of law, independence of the “In assessing this environment, Poland, thanks courts and separation of powers, the primacy to an integrating Western Europe, has had of secular and ecclesiastical law, civil liberties a clear reference point and a political goal for and human rights. In other areas, it can be de- two decades. The EU has given us capital (hu- rived flexibly through continuous civic dia- man, financial and institutional) that enabled logue with all social groups, including the a quick exit from socialism and the building of most extreme ones. There should also be a free market economy and parliamentary de- space for national debates, for example about 1 An IPSOS survey conducted in the V4 countries mocracy. We changed political course, just social norms, education or internal security.” in March 2017 for the International Republican Institute (IRI) on a sample of 1020 people. 83 percent when the EU entered a key moment in its his- 2 “Europe has to decide whether it wants to live and The percentage of Poles tory, which will determine relations within the The key is unity thrive or it wants to shrivel and disappear,” a statement who support the country’s EU and the situation on the continent for years from 17 July 2017. membership of the EU. 3 Speech by the President of the Republic of Poland to come. If we were now moving onto the side “Regardless of political divisions, Poles agree Source: IPSOS survey conducted Andrzej Duda to the Warsaw Global Forum, in the V4 countries in March 2017 of Germany and other Western partners, we that unity should be the basic value for Eu- 6 July 2017. for the Republican Institute (IRI).

12 13 Economy and market Four freedoms and common policies

“Capitalism Europe is strongly connected by common late our national interest and buy back some of must be prosocial trade and customs policy and a single those sold key enterprises as soon as possible. capitalism, market. Poles agree that this is one Hence the stiffening of our position towards the but creating of the greatest achievements of the largest EU countries (especially Germany and the best conditions European communities. It can further France) and the pursuit of diversification of en- for living, strengthen the unity of the EU ergy suppliers and trade partners, since almost for entrepreneurs” . if it is truly homogeneous 80 percent of Polish exports go to EU countries Mateusz Morawiecki, for all members. today. Intensification of relations with the coun- Prime Minister of the Republic of Poland tries of the so-called EU’s hard core (Great Brit- [a statement At the same time, Poles remain strong sup- ain, the Visegrad Group and the Three Sea coun- at the Second Congress porters of globalisation4 and Polish compa- tries), searching for new alliances (China, Israel) in Rzeszów]. nies are now more and more boldly going and strengthening old ones (USA). “Together, let us beyond the boundaries of the European mar- face the external and ket. In their opinion, this does not have to be The ruling party in Poland is also quite negative economic challenges. related to the single currency. The economic about the quality of the Western economic sys- The EU is the most crisis has led to a significant decline in Poles’ tem, which has led to enormous dispropor- powerful common perceptions of the euro. In 2004, most people tions between the incomes of the majority and market in the world. identified with EU entry, while today only 22 the enormous wealth of a few and which could The EU – not individual percent want to give up the zloty5. also lead to another global crisis. Poland wants countries. (...) to fight the pathologies of the European econ- If we want to build Market equality omy that undermine the principle of free trade prosperity. it’s only and the provision of services. It expects to within the EU” . According to the Polish right, Poland - wanting maintain the integrity of the single market and to find itself“ on the Western side” of the conti- EU institutions, because it sees the danger of Elżbieta Bieńkowska European Commissioner nent - went too far. The sense of the country be- disintegration resulting from the protectionist for Internal Market ing taken over by the Old Union has also approach of some of the old EU countries, such 512 million and Services, Industry, Entrepreneurship touched economic issues. In the opinion of cur- as France, in for example its antipathy towards The number of consumers and Small and Medium rent Polish leaders, the “family silver,” that is, the Polish plumbers and now Polish drivers. In the in the EU single market. Enterprises Source: Eurostat 2017 [a statement made during most valuable companies, was taken over by opinion of the current government, it is Central the European Forum foreign interests using bullying and exploiting and Eastern Europe that today defends the of New Ideas in Sopot]. submissiveness. Meanwhile, “capital has a na- unity of the EU more than the West, which tionality,” which is why we must clearly articu- leads to divisions.

14 15 Opposition circles see things differently. In and stress in the zone resulting from the after- tries and enable us to be in the mainstream of their opinion, close economic cooperation effects of the financial crisis and the lack of caus- decision-making. Differences in expert opinions with the major European partners, especially al connection between single currency mem- concern the timing when it would be most prof- Germany (which takes over 27 percent of Pol- bership and an improved political position itable to join. ish exports), strengthens Poland’s position in within the EU. It is noted that Greece and Portu- Europe, which is best evidenced by economic gal (which have the euro) are not at the core of The common currency means no exchange performance: stable growth even during times decision-making in the EU, while Sweden and rate differences and protection against of crisis, the development of entrepreneurship the UK (before Brexit) use their own currencies, threats from foreign currency markets. In their Economic Forum, and increasing the quality of Polish products yet have considerable influence. It is also re- opinion, after the adoption of the euro, the Pol- Krynica-Zdrój and services that are successfully competing called that not using the common currency ena- ish economy may increase by 1.5 percent in the on European and international markets. bled Poland to get through the after-effects of short term and that GDP would continue to the crisis in 2008. grow thanks to new investments. If there was the Both sides, however, agree that any scenario possibility of borrowing or conducting trade in that limits the future of the EU only to market Opponents of the rapid introduction of the euro euros on the Polish market it would be possible forces is not good, because it would mean the in Poland cite statistics showing that the top five to avoid the problem of loans in Swiss francs and withdrawal of many processes beneficial to all fastest growing EU countries have their own na- the decline in exports resulting from speculation Member States. At the same time, attention is tional currencies. They also point out that the on the zloty. drawn to the relationship with the United common currency condemns countries with Kingdom, which, despite Brexit, remains one weaker economies to recession and more bor- The debates have drawn attention to the need of the most important countries in Europe. rowing, and that Greece would not have to rationalise discussion about the euro-zone in Poles are of the opinion that we must strive to reached such a deep crisis if it were not for the terms of real consequences and real forecasts. maintain close economic ties with the United euro. However, they note that stabilising the eu- Even experts have insufficient knowledge about Kingdom, all the more so today given that it is rozone is in Poland’s interest, because all EU the balance of profit and loss from participation Poland’s third largest trade partner and the countries, including those without the single in monetary union. There were many myths place of work and the life of over 1 million of currency, are tied into it. around the common currency and at the same our compatriots. time society has not been presented with a pre- In the opinion of opposition circles, the euro is cise diagnosis of the effects of being or not being Common currency? not only an economic but also a political weap- in the eurozone. Political forces should conduct a on. It is the most advanced stage of the integra- dialogue with the public on this. The current government in Poland does not tion process and will continue to be the axis of 4 IPSOS survey, March 2017, op. cit. plan to enter the eurozone in the near future, this process. That is why Poland should join 5 CBOS, April 2017, http: // election. pl / 7,75398,21703900, nor is it conducting a public debate on the sub- monetary union - which will brings us into the new- probas-cbos-polacy-chca- ject. The main reason is the persistent instability circle of the most-developed European coun- uni-european-but-not-euro.html.

16 17 European Union good to know

EU share of global GDP (%) 2015 2016 ISLANDIA USA 24 25 Cities in which EU institutions, EU-27 22 22 bodies and agencies are based Japan 6 7 United Kingdom 4 4 1995 Brussels Parma FINLAND China 15 15 Luxembourg Dublin Canada 2 2 Strasbourg Prague NORWAY 1995 Mexico 2 1 Frankfurt Frankfurt am Main SWEDEN ESTONIA 2004 RUSSIA Brazil 2 2 Warsaw Vilnius India 3 3 London Budapest LATVIA 1973 Amsterdam Lisbon 2004 The rest of the 21 20 DENMARK world Turin The Hague LITHUANIA 2004 Ljubljana Paris 1973 Source: International Monetary Fund IRELAND 1951/1957 Vienna UNITED NETHERLANDS Angers KINGDOM UK 2004 BELARUS Bilbao Tallinn 1973 POLAND Solna (Sweden) Heraklion 1951/1957 BELGIUM 1951/1957 Cologne Valenciennes GERMANY UKRAINE Alicante 1951/1957 Thessaloniki LUXEMBOURG 2004 CZECH REPUBLIC Helsinki Barcelona SLOVAKIA 2004 1951/1957 Copenhagen Riga LICHTENSTEIN MOŁDAWIA FRANCE AUSTRIA 150 mld euro Vigo SWITZERLAND 1995 HUNGARY 2007 Approximately the size of SLOVENIA 2004 ROMANIA 1951/1957 2004 the EU budget (combined ITALY CROATIA SERBIA about 997 ban euros 2013 BOSNIA AND MONAKO HERZEGOVINA in 2014-2020).

1986 2007 Map based one: https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_pl ANDORRA KOSOVO * Source: European Commission EU members. PORTUGAL SPAIN MONTENEGRO BULGARIA VATICAN CITY 1986 FYROM** ALBANIA Countries that are candidates TURKEY and potential candidates to the EU. 1981 GREECE

Countries that are * The use of this name does not affect the position on the status not members of the EU. 2004 of Kosovo and is consistent with UN Security Council CYPRUS Resolution 1244 (1999) and the International Court of Justice’s opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence. 2004 MALTA ** Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

18 19 Internal security and migration

The migration crisis, intensively reported find a consensus on the issue of relocation of the letter as giving him unneeded lessons. He in the Polish media and used in political refugees to suit all Member States. This atti- declared that he did not accept “instructions disputes, has changed the attitudes of tude was perceived as arrogance and “deaf- or threats” and that he had the right to “de- many Poles towards foreigners. Like many ness” on the part of the large countries of the mand solidarity.” other Europeans, today we see migration “Old Union” and proof that in practice they are and terrorism as the most important already implementing the third scenario of Help or defend yourself? 6 threats for Europe . the White Book (“those who want to do more, The 10th European do more”). So the EU has many speeds and The issue of immigrants in Poland is the sub- Economic Forum, Łódź, There are hardly any ethnic or religious mi- basically two rings: the centre and the periph- ject of widespread social debate. Despite the 16–17 October 2017 norities in Poland and the fear of inflows of ery. Warsaw is not reconciled to such develop- attitude of Pope Francis, who encourages foreigners is growing. As much as 70 percent ments. It is involved in the prevention of the Catholics to give shelter to refugees, the Polish of Polish society is opposed to accepting refu- migration crisis in Europe, but wants to do it in Church is partially distancing itself from this. It gees from Muslim countries7 and the reloca- a different way. This focuses on securing ex- understands the ethical dilemma between the tion of immigrants has become one of the ternal borders, cooperation agreements with need to help the needy and fear for the home- hottest disputes in Warsaw-Brussels relations. neighbouring countries (such as Turkey), re- land, but is searching for solutions that put “We believe that, In the opinion of the Polish government, the admissions and increasing funds for refugee more emphasis on security and the defence of Poland should be West did not take seriously into account the camps outside the EU. the values of our civilisation. open to further risks that were pointed out by the countries of widening Central and Eastern Europe and imposed a so- An example of disregarding the sensitivities Government supporters see the policy of an of the EU and NATO. lution preferred by countries directly affected of the Central and Eastern Europe countries is open door for immigrants introduced by Ger- This increases the by the crisis (Germany, Greece, Italy). On the the Visegrad Group – Italy dispute. In a joint many as blindness, which should be cured as human potential other hand, the opposition to the current letter, the six V4 countries stipulated that they quickly as possible – all the more so because of the EU. The EU government also saw migration as erroneous, rejected the mechanism of relocation and the churches are empty in Europe and the should correct its despite the previous government agreeing to forced and automatic redistribution. “We be- mosques are full. The huge influx of people internal policy, accept the number of refugees allocated by lieve that persons who actually apply for asy- into Europe from other cultural backgrounds, becoming a a Union the EU to Poland, respecting the principle of lum should be identified before entering the especially Muslims, is perceived as one of the of equal states solidarity. European Union. Our external borders must most serious challenges that the Old Conti- and free nations” . be protected. The EU and its Member States nent cannot cope with without changing its dr Andrzej Duda Allocation disputes should mobilise financial and other resources approach and showing decisiveness instead of President of Poland [a part of a speech given at to create safe and humane conditions at hot- compassion. This is a fundamental threat, the Economic Forum According to the camp currently ruling Po- spots or reception centres (migrants) outside evoking the history of the Western Roman Em- in Krynica-Zdroj] land, the EU did not try sufficiently hard to the EU8. The Italian Prime Minister described pire, which fell under the pressure of the bar-

20 21 “Seeing empty barians. One of the PiS deputies presented this of the EU, because the influx of hundreds of are also afraid of terrorist attacks, often associ- churches in a figurative way: if we allow the waves of thousands of people into Europe also has pos- ated with immigrants, especially Muslims. You and full mosques, migrants to flow into Europe, we will end up itive results. On the one hand, increasing inter- need to give them a sense of security. and the fertility like the Aborigines in Australia - in some time nal multiculturalism is connected with the of these people we will have to be protected as a minority in need to find a way to effectively integrate new Opposition circles emphasise that Europe can- I am afraid of this our own continent9. citizens and eliminate potential social prob- not close under the pressure of fear. Building wave of refugees. lems, but on the other, it can be a remedy for walls, using tear gas or barbed wire are con- I know that Europe The Polish right points out that the cause of low birth rates and the ageing of European trary to European humanistic values and soli- will change” . modern migration is great social inequalities societies. darity, which have made Europe what it is to- Macin Mamoń that will not disappear quickly. This is a kind of day. At the same time, they admit that thinking Maker of documentary films [statement during the modern migration of peoples. Also in the de- The opposition sees the necessity of greater about a Europe of open borders in times of one conference “The role bates, NATO reports estimate that in the com- cooperation of EU states also in protecting the million migrations from neighbouring conti- of the Catholic Church ing years about 60 million people will try to get external border of the Schengen area. The mi- nents is political naivety, because it leads to an in the process of European integration,” Krakow] into Europe. This means that we are not at the gration crisis has developed mainly because increase in support for populists and radicals. end, but at the beginning of the migration cri- “frontier” countries, such as Greece and Italy, Not only Poles, but also Western European so- sis, and the fight is a task for several genera- did not respect the Dublin conventions (which ciety are afraid of immigrants. They want them tions. The effective integration of such a high ruled that the host country should hold the to stay in the EU for a limited time and return to number of foreigners is not possible, so one refugees while carrying out a full asylum pro- their countries when the situation allows. The must introduce other solutions than a policy of cedure and then either return them or give vast majority think that the capacity of their open doors, even if it raises moral doubts in us. them the right to stay) and let refugees travel countries to receive refugees is already ex- If not, Europe will ultimately lose its identity. north. When the policy of an open door from hausted. Germany was superimposed on it, the situa- Opposition circles think differently. In their tion got out of hand. There was a lack of coor- opinion, the migration crisis is a challenge for dination and cooperation. all EU members, which results from the princi- 1 million ple of solidarity, and which Poles should not This is an example that confirms the thesis that the number of immigrants who crossed the EU border need to learn. It is therefore necessary to par- were should be more cooperation between 6 IPSOS, research V4, March 2017. illegally in 2015. This was ticipate in joint initiatives aimed at reducing Member States of the European Union and 7 CBOS poll, May 2017. 10 times more than in the scale of migration and providing shelter not less. This is also the key to preserving the 8 A letter by the Prime Ministers of the Visegrad Group previous years. In 2017, the and assistance. The proper response to the fur- Schengen Area, which is a great value for the countries to the Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni, on July 19, 2017. migration was limited to around 300,000 people. ther migrations awaiting us is well dealt with EU. Poles, who have been in the area since 9 A statement during the Economic Forum in Krynica, by the common asylum and migration policy 2007, do not want to go back to borders, but 6 September 2017. source: Frontex.

22 23 Europe and the world Will we be a leader or a statistic?

Polish elites (governmental and A European common front Republic, we must be sure that it will be deliv- opposition) agree that progressive ered to us in the era of armed conflict - and not change in the balance of forces The Polish government, but also the opposi- be forfeited, for example, as a result of Russian is happening during a period of increasing tion, understands the importance of a more blackmail. It is no wonder that those who de- instability. We are mostly afraid today evenly distributed burden (also financial) be- cide about defence prefer to maintain a na- of international terrorism and threats tween the member countries of NATO and ap- tional arms industry. 10 to the security of the country . preciates the role of stability in financing, Warsaw Security Forum We also observe that the well-known which is why today it fulfils its duty of spend- At the same time, Poland emphasises the im- challenges stemming from geopolitics ing 2 percent of its GDP on defence. At the portance of maintaining close cooperation have begun to be accompanied by new same time, it supports the strengthening of with the United Kingdom after Brexit - above ones: energy blackmail, cyber attacks the EU security and defence policy in a way all in the area of security and defence. It also and disinformation activities. that allows real and effective opportunities draws attention to the uneven distribution of (PESCO)12. However, it also stresses the danger emphasis on the affairs of the East and the In the opinion of Prime Minister Mateusz of duplication of actions undertaken by NATO, South. As a border country, guarding the east- Morawiecki, the world is entering a new bipo- since 22 EU countries are also its members. ern flank of the EU and NATO, it expects greater lar system in which China is taking the place of symmetry and joint dismantling of threats. “Chancellor Russia. Moscow, however, has not accepted The Polish debate on European security focus- Bismarck used to the change of status and perception from be- es on new threats: energy, digital and informa- Europe and abroad say that Poles are ing a global to a regional power, therefore it tion, which are still perceived as having a lower political poets and may behave irrationally, which is typical for rank than areas providing “hard power.” Ex- Polish political scientists analyse the role the politicians in poetry. countries that are weakening11. perts and politicians believe, however, that the EU plays in the world. The dominant role has Today, we leave greatest challenge for European foreign and been that of a normative civilian actor. Today, poetry to one side According to both the government and the security policy is the lack of readiness to fully this can be questioned due to the lack of EU- and stick to the old opposition, the greatest challenge for Poland’s cooperate with member states due to their di- wide consequences in international relations Roman principle: security is therefore Russia – due to the offen- vergent interests. This is clearly seen in the ex- (with China, but also with countries covered by if you want to have sive nature of its actions aimed at the North ample of intervention missions, which are ef- the European Neighbourhood Policy or en- peace, get ready Atlantic Alliance, of which Poland is a member, fective when one of the countries assumes full largement). At the same time, the prospect of for war ” . the ease of undertaking military interventions responsibility. Some Polish experts doubt the joining the EU is not as attractive as it was a few Mateusz Morawiecki (Georgia, Ukraine), and generating hybrid possibility of developing a common EU geo- years ago. Even for countries benefiting from Prime Minister of the Republic of Poland threats. In this context, NATO’s strategic adap- politics due to the limited trust between na- development support, the Old Continent has [statement at the Warsaw tation to the changed international situation tions. If we agree that the ammunition for our ceased to be the most important point of refer- Security Forum]. has become a key issue for Poland. tanks be produced, for example, in the Czech ence, because similar support opportunities

24 25 “The more integrated Central Europe is, the larger the are offered by China, without expecting de- membership in the EU is gone. Thus, the EU Global strategy Central European mocratisation of the political system or chang- began to look for elements that would ensure market, the more es in values in return. the security of its borders in the East and In discussing the global strategy of the EU, we mobile and connected South. It focused on strengthening its “hard see the confusion of Europe and the search for infrastructure, It is widely seen in Poland that the EU is slowly power” and developing an individual ap- a response to its new position in the world. If the better it contributes being reduced to the role of a normal interna- proach to each of the neighbours. From press- the world becomes bipolar, the EU will have to to the common tional actor, which means giving up values as ing for democratisation, it has moved to choose between the US and China. Experts European interest” . the main basis for international action in ex- pressing for securitisation (security). Pragma- note that China is trying to consistently Dr hab. Krzysztof Szczerski change for realism as to its own potential. As tism has won out, in turn leading to a decline strengthen its position on the Old Continent State secretary, head of the office of the President a result, Europe wants to launch a wider range in the credibility of the EU, which is trapped in through bilateral talks, telling each state that it of the Republic of Poland of foreign policy instruments (not only soft a dilemma as to which is more important: val- is a “gateway to Europe,” offering loans and in- [statement during the II Congress 590 power, but also hard power). A lower willing- ues or interests. There is also a new category, vestments. At present, Europeans are compet- in Rzeszów] ness to democratise other countries and pro- “resistance,” understood as the ability to face ing over China, but are strategically connected papate its own values, especially that they are external and internal dangers. with the USA, while the optimal solution would not always well received. be to set themselves between the two powers, Transatlantic relations without advancing on either side. This would “Globalisation Neighbourhood policy give Europe the opportunity to build alter- and the diversity In the Polish debate on the future of the EU nate alliances depending on the given situa- involved must Much attention in the Polish debate on the there is no lack of anxiety about transatlantic tion, without giving up its own identity. be promoted. future of the EU has been devoted to the Eu- relations. For half a century, they were the po- Our task is to educate ropean Neighbourhood Policy. Experts note litical and economic driving force of the West the public and show that the EU – 14 years after formulating its first - today their quality has become an accidental that it is integration assumptions – has fallen into lethargy and is result of the current situation in Europe and that will bring trapped between lofty ambitions and reality. America. While it is difficult to imagine the everyone the The dissonance between the goals set and breakup of this relationship, it is evident that 10 Some 37% respectively and 33% of respondents. greatest benefit” Eurobarometer “Future of Europe,” November 2017. . the results achieved has brought European it has entered a cooler phase. For the first time 11 Address inaugurating the Warsaw Security Forum, politicians back to political realism – they since the end of World War II, Europe does not Dr Jacek Krawczyk November 8, 2017. European Economic have changed their approach and instru- know how to deal with the US. The White 12 PESCO – the “permanent structural cooperation” and Social Committee, ments. It was found that the standard catch House also does not give a clear answer as it – of EU member states in the field of defence. chairman of the employers’ 25 countries joined it, including Poland. group [statement during words from recent years, including “More for eyes America’s role in a new global order in Those that decided not to join: the European Forum more,” do not work - also because the big re- which China is increasingly replacing Russia. Great Britain, Denmark, Malta. of New Ideas in Sopot] ward that enlargement policy once given by

26 27 The shape of the Union More or less Europe?

Poles are still optimistic about the future so years of “great expansion” the West should Opposing circles to the government see the of the European Union (69 percent), but understand that Poland is today an equal EU situation of the EU differently – as a source of this percentage is falling. They are equally member alongside France or Italy, and the opportunities, not threats. It is here – and not divided in their feelings – 44 percent trusts Czech Republic and Slovakia, or the Nether- to Russia or China – that hundreds of thou- in it and the same percentage doesn’t13. lands or Belgium. However, this is not hap- sands of migrants are hoping for a better life. However, they are not agreed on what to pening. The Polish right wing sees a lack of This is the second, after the United States, do. Some 59 percent want more stability acknowledgement of the countries of the most successful political integration project European Forum and 33 percent want deeper changes14. “Old EU” and the sensitivities of the countries and it is seen in the world as a “success story” for New Ideas, Sopot of Central and Eastern Europe that want to whose “soft power” is not weakening. Despite There is no lack of voices in the discussion that have a full and equal voice in the discussion internal crises and unfavourable changes in a new approach is necessary and this is also on the future of the EU. All the more so be- the external environment, it is still possible to being driven by the changed international sit- cause they have good economic results and preserve EU unity in many matters, e.g. a com- uation and broadly understood new times have not been affected by recent crises. mon front in Brexit negotiations, which sur- (“It’s the 21st century, stupid!”)15. The main prises London, or maintaining sanctions question the EU should ask itself today, is “what The Polish right sees the key to maintaining against Russia, which surprises the Kremlin. do we want to do together and why?” the unity of Europe in terms of a more effective “Talking about “management of the difference of opinions” According to supporters of the opposition, the the nation state is Managing differences of opinion among the 27 states and translating into po- future of Poland is clearly on the Western side, important today, litical practice the maxim “unity in diversity.” If and the creation of alternatives and buffers especially in a period Right-wing circles perceive the EU as an inef- Europe does not find a way to equalise the in- does not serve European integration. We need when certain rules fective organism requiring deep reforms and ternal balance of power, it is threatened by to develop close cooperation with other mem- and mechanisms it is not known whether they can be carried progressive fragmentation. Such a perspective ber states, especially in the format of the Wei- of European out at all. The biggest obstacle in their opinion leads to the building of a kind of “buffer” be- mar Triangle of Germany-France-Poland. An integration have is the arrogance of the elites of the “Old EU,” tween the “sinking West” and unpredictable additional impulse in this direction is Brexit, either collapsed the unwillingness to listen to younger coun- Russia, while maintaining strong “strength an- pushing London away from Paris and Berlin. or just about tries and the inability to “manage differences chors” in the form of the USA and China. For Poland could use this to strengthen its posi- survived intact” . tion in the EU alongside Germany and France, of opinion,” as defined by the Polish Minister the right, the need to build up Poland’s posi- Prof. Konstanty of European Affairs Konrad Szymański. This tion in the EU is recognised in the context of which would mean entering the European first A. Wojtaszczyk inequality of treatment irritates members of the overall CEE region (especially the Visegrad league. Constructive proposals coming from Warsaw University [speech during the second the Polish ruling party, in turn encouraging it Group) and the desire to conduct a self-refer- Warsaw to help create a European agenda and European Congress to oppose and fight its corner. In the opinion ential bilateral policy and create own initiatives build a new shape for the EU would give Po- in Szczecin] of the ruling camp in Poland, after a dozen or (including the Three Seas Initiative). land a chance to significantly influence not

28 29 “Your stronger only its own future, but also the fate of the also noted, i.e. there are such large divisions curity. In order to maintain the equivalence of ones do not like whole West. between particular groups of member states internal relations, it is necessary to strengthen multilateralism, that it will be difficult to talk about the integ- the rank of EU leaders, which the world barely they prefer – like Both sides note that the EU needs a new form rity of integration processes. They see the hy- notices, because the leaders of the strongest the US – to operate of management, more relevant to current and brid nature of the EU as something between member states dominate. bilaterally. future challenges. This stems not only from an international organisation and asymmetric So Germany, from changes in the external environment, but also conflict, in which the interests of states still Opponents of deepening integration refer to the point of view from the consequences of recent EU enlarge- dominate over the community interest. the achievements of individual states. They do of its interests should ments and the need to cooperate in such not understand why – with the current state of not be in the EU, a large group of members. The decision-mak- Advocates of deeper integration consider it mind and depth of problems that our conti- because it is strong ing process and way of working of EU institu- a paradox that 60 years after signing the Trea- nent is experiencing – the answer should be enough to do things tions must be adapted to this. It is necessary to ty of Rome we are still looking for national re- “more Europe.” Especially given the increase of on its own. Integration overcome the current high tensions between sponses to non-national challenges. Only na- uncertainty and unpredictability in the world, gives added value the institutions of nation states and the EU in- tional states and politicians - and not from the the probability of a lack of EU effectiveness in- in that there are stitutions and to control the various “speeds” of EU – still have effective tools for managing creases. Several years ago, it seemed the best more restrictions the EU, which are a fact. Such multi-level gov- crises and responding to key social problems, response to the various problems facing Eu- for strong countries, ernance will only be effective if it is based on such as poverty or lack of work. If the EU rope. Today it is not so, because the crises have so smaller states intuitive and broad debate, including the voice wants to maintain unity, it has to be changed. weakened its credibility both in the eyes of feel safe and can of all countries. All the more so given that many of the trou- European and external observers. develop better” . bles that it is going through today are due to Professor Dariusz Rosati The shape of the EU the lack of effective cooperation of all coun- Taking a step back, finding fewer topics that A Member of the European Parliament [a statement tries (migration, the eurozone). In any case, all countries could work on would lead to a new made during the Second Theoretically, Europeans know that “unity is Europe will not cope with global competition, quality of European policy and would restore European Congress in strength,” however, in the societies of the it will cease to be one of the main actors and mutual trust and integration between mem- Szczecin] member states there is a lot of resistance to will become an official. Deeper integration ber countries. the unification of states into one organism. means greater constraints for large and strong This is also the case in Poland. The image Poles states, which already have a strong position in have as to the target shape of the EU is varied bilateral relations and could deal with matters 13 Eurobarometer, August 2017. – from a “Europe of homelands,” with a strong independently. Multilateralism is the most ad- 14 IPSOS, March 2017. role for national parliaments, to a federation, vantageous for the smaller and weaker, be- 15 Paraphrasing the slogan “It’s the economy, stupid!” with a common currency, president and gov- cause it gives them greater strength and scale used by Bill Clinton, US presidential candidate from the Democratic Party, in his electoral ernment. The possibility of fragmentation is of action, and at the same time a sense of se- campaign in 1996.

30 31

Conclusions Events covered and recommendations by monitoring

EVENT DATE LOCATION ORGANISER During the debate on the White Paper on the ment law, separation of powers, democracy, Future of Europe and the statement on the EU openness, political pluralism, solidarity, free- Kongres 590 16–17.11 Rzeszów The S. Skrzypek Foundation 2017, Jean-Claude Juncker confirmed that the dom), high level of institutional culture (great- and Partners scenarios proposed by the European Commis- er social participation, efficiency of adminis- sion are not generally perceived as having tration, strategic planning), giving Poland the Think global, 9–10.11 Kraków Polish Association been exhausted. At the same time, despite the feeling of being part of the West, introducing act regional of International Studies deep divisions, Poles prefer scenario 4 (to do local government reform based on the EU Warsaw Security Forum 8–9.11 Warszawa The K. Pułaski Foundation less together, but more efficiently) as the most subsidiarity principle. and Partners realistic one. Among the weaknesses of the EU, The most important achievements of noticed by Poles, the most important are: The role of the Church in the 27–28.10 Kraków The Papal University European communities from a Polish process of European in Cracow perspective:  The lack of a narrative and the lack of an integration ultimate goal: one must recreate the sense The 10th European 16–17.10 Łódź Lodz Regional Development  Peace and freedom: of community, find a strong, collective emo- Economic Forum Agency and Partners Providing Europe with peace after devastating tion that would move people and allow them wars, freedom of movement of EU citizens to shape the “European spirit.” The European Forum 27–29.09 Sopot The Lewiatan Confederation around Europe (without visas) and the world of New Ideas and Partners (fewer visas) and abolition of broadly defined  Stagnation of the West and deviation barriers between countries on the continent from its values: It is worth reaching back to The second congress of 26–28.09 Szczecin The Political Science and European (e.g. roaming). the idea that the founding fathers of the Eu- Eurooeanists in EU states Studies Instituteof the University of Szczecin ropean communities had when building Eu-  Economic development: ropean identity and strengthening the sense Economic Forum 5–8.09 Krynica Zdrój The “Eastern Institute” and Partners Reconstruction of the continent, stable GDP of community, because without it there will growth, providing people with prosperity, the be no solidarity. Global Forum 6.07 Warszawa Atlantic Council and PISM development of entrepreneurialism and inno- vativeness, common high standards for the  Facing up to internal and external Quo Vadis, Europo? Debate 22.06 Warszawa The International Relations Institute quality of products and services, enabling es- threats: change in the balance of power in on the White Book about of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation the Future of Europe pecially spectacular development and catch- the world, but also our own problems have ing up after being “behind the Iron Curtain” weakened Europe. In seeking answers, the EU Development challenges 30.05 Kielce The Law, Administration and during the Cold War. should take into account the sensitivity of the for Poland in Europe. Management Faculty of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, The future if the EU J.Kochanowski University,  Civilisation standards: which do not want to be treated as members Information Point for Europe Direct. A sense of belonging to a broader community of a second category. of states and people based on values (govern- Europe with a view 26.05 Gdańsk The European Solidarity Centre to the future 32 Eriti sum quam vemono ntiore disquide volu partic JJ-02-18-396-EN-N

The Polish debate on the White Paper about the future of Europe 2017

ISBN: 978-92-79-81026-8 doi:10.2775/85829