Natural Hazards 2009 Natural Hazards 2009 A review of New Zealand’s major hazard events of 2009, and the work of NIWA, GNS Science, and other organisations in their efforts to reduce the risks, and mitigate the effects, of natural hazards in New Zealand.

They thought ‘it won’t happen here’, but it did Many New Zealanders were directly and tragically affected by the Samoan earthquake and subsequent tsunami on 29 September 2009, which killed 226 people. It took only 10 to 20 minutes for the waves to reach the Samoan coast. Filomena Nelson, Principal Disaster Manager in Apia, Samoa, describes that terrible day (p 16, 17). She tells of how villagers who had taken heed of drills and warnings felt that their lives had been saved as a result; those who thought ‘it won’t happen here’ may have been slower to react. Closer to home, New Zealanders were lucky that the massive (magnitude 7.8) Fiordland earthquake in July 2009 was so remote. This earthquake was the biggest to strike New Zealand since the 1931 Hawke’s Bay quake, when 256 people were killed. These events remind us of how vulnerable we are to natural hazards, and how important it is to be prepared. The better we understand why and how natural hazards happen, the better we can forecast them and the safer we will be. That’s where science is so critical. The new Natural Hazards Research Platform (p18) is a bold initiative, introducing a more stable, long-term, and productive research structure. Natural hazards researchers have long been recognised as a cohesive group, with strong links to end users, including the civil defence and emergency management community, the Earthquake Commission, policy makers, planners and engineers. The Platform will encourage collaboration, rather than competition, between those scientists and end users to the benefit of all New Zealanders. The need for a stable, long-term research environment is a recurring plea from scientists, so it’s no surprise that the value of accurate long-term data sets is a theme of a number of the articles in this fourth Natural Hazards Review. All this data collection is not an ‘academic’ exercise; it’s fundamental to reducing property damage and saving lives. By looking back we can look forward, and begin to predict the impacts of long-term environmental changes on hazard probability and scope. NIWA’s new and growing Snow and Ice Monitoring Network is a good example of an innovative data-collection system which will increase understanding of alpine hazards and could ultimately save lives. Congratulations again to NIWA and GNS Science for bringing together Natural Hazards 2009, and to the Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management, the Earthquake Commission, and the Insurance Council for working closely with scientists. It’s a valuable reference, outlining the great work researchers and end users do together.

Hon John Carter Minister of Civil Defence Contents Hazard summary 2009 4-12 Earthquakes 4 Tsunami 4 Focus on … the Samoan tsunami 5 Landslides 6 Heavy rain & floods 6 Focus on … Waihi landslides 7 Snow, hail, & electrical storms 8 Temperature 8 Focus on … avalanches 9 Wind & tornadoes 10 Drought 10 Focus on … tornadoes 11 Volcanic activity 12 Coastal hazards 12 Insurance, EQC, and civil defence in 2009 13–15 A benign year for natural disaster claims (Insurance Council) 13 The Earthquake Commission in 2009 (EQC) 14 Hazard notifications & the National Warning System (MCDEM) 15 The deadly day of the tsunami 16–17 A new structure for natural hazards research 18 Encapsulating historic weather events 19 Research in 2009 20–25 The value of sustained observations in hazard forecasting 20 Geological hazards and society 22 RiskScape – putting science into practice 24 Communicating and applying our science 26–29 Research publications 26 Popular articles 27 Hazard studies 28 Contributors 30 Acknowledgments 31 Australasian natural hazards conference 31

The Steaming Cliffs above Waihi village, Hipaua geothermal area. Photo: Graham Hancox, GNS Science Earthquakes On 15 July the largest earthquake since the 1931 Napier earthquake struck remote Dusky Sound in Fiordland. The magnitude 7.8 earthquake was felt throughout the South Island and mainly on the western side of the lower North Island. Luckily damage was limited. The largest aftershock was magnitude 6.1 and occurred 20 minutes after the main shock. Two deep earthquakes of magnitude 6.1 were the other largest earthquakes of the year. The first was on 21 March at a depth of 160 km and centred 30 km northwest of Whakatane; the second, on 1 September, was at a depth 280 km and centred

Hazards summary Hazards 120 km north of Whakatane. On 27 June, two shallow earthquakes (magnitude 4.3 and 4.4) centred about 5 km northwest of Turangi were felt at the southern end of Lake Taupo. These were the largest of a swarm of several hundred earthquakes that commenced in late May; Waihi village was evacuated because of landslide risk. Five earthquakes outside the New Zealand region were felt. On 20 March a shallow magnitude 7.6 quake centred in the Tonga Islands, about 2000 km northeast of Auckland, was felt on the eastern side of the North Island and in Nelson. The magnitude 8.1 Samoan earthquake on 30 September was not felt here. In 2009, a total of 42 earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or greater occurred. 392 earthquakes were reported felt on the GeoNet website. Apart from the Dusky Sound earthquake and its aftershocks, this was a relatively quiet year for earthquakes in New Zealand.

Source: GNS Science

Tsunami Four tsunamis were recorded by coastal sea-level gauges around New Zealand in 2009, but no reported damage occurred. In order of wave-height size in New Zealand these tsunamis were: 1. On 15 July a tsunami originated from Dusky Sound in Fiordland, the result of a magnitude 7.8 earthquake. The highest wave was 0.97 m, recorded at Jackson Bay 2.5 hours after the earthquake. A wave of 0.5 m was recorded at Charleston. Fortunately the largest waves occurred soon after low tide. 2. On 30 September (29 September local Samoan time) a magnitude 8.1 earthquake to the south of Samoa caused the devastating Samoan tsunami. The first waves reached the Chatham Islands and the North Island (East Cape) at 4.2 and 5 hours after the earthquake respectively. The largest wave recorded here was 0.9 m at Kaingaroa (Chatham Islands), nearly 2 hours after the first wave. Wave heights over 0.5 m were recorded at East Cape, Mt Maunganui and Timaru and on the west coast at Jackson Bay and Charleston. Peak waves at Christchurch (Sumner) and Port Taranaki occurred more than 12–13 hours after the first waves. 3. On 8 October a magnitude 7.3 earthquake in northern Vanuatu caused a small tsunami that was recorded at four sites on the west coast from New Plymouth to Jackson Bay and on the Chatham Islands. 4. On 20 March a magnitude 7.3 earthquake south of Tonga caused a small tsunami that was directed mainly eastwards and Sources: NIWA, PrimePort Timaru, Environment Waikato, Northland Regional Council, Port Taranaki Ltd., Lyttelton Port Co. Ltd., GeoNet/LINZ,

Natural Hazards 2009 Natural Hazards sideswiped the Chatham Islands (peak wave height of around 0.2 m, 9 hours after the first waves arrived). Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

4 • Buildingsare lesslikelytobedestroyed ordamagedifthey: Key lessonsforPacific Islandcommunities of over1.5metresorhigher. were essentiallytotallydestroyedataninundationdepth damage tobuildings.Traditionallighttimberbuildings and foundsomeconsistentfactorsaffectingthelevelof homes andtourism-basedbuildingstraditionalfales, We surveyedover150damagedbuildings,including to buildings Factors affecting the level of damage some ofNewZealand’smostpopulatedcoastalareas. level: thesearetheestimated500-yearwaveheightsfor in theorderofbetweenthreetofivemetresabovesea are common.Mostshorelinetsunamiwaveheightswere timber-framed andmasonryorconcrete-blockbuildings to alesserextent,Samoa,issimilarNewZealand,as buildings. BuildingconstructioninAmericanSamoaand, human sufferingandobjectivelyassessdamageto One ofourroleswastolookbeyondtheimmediate Looking beyondthehumansuffering Islands becomebetterprepared forfuture tsunami. Science teamwasdeployedtobringlonger-term lessonshometohelpNewZealandandotherPacific metres insomeplaces.ThePacificcommunity responded immediatelywithaid;ajointNIWA/GNS to three wavesofuptofivemetres highsweptin from thePacific. Watertravelledinlandforover500 Tonga.hit Samoa,Americanandnorthern Two hundred andtwentysixpeoplediedastwo On 29September2009ashallowmagnitude8.1earthquakecausedcatastrophic tsunamiwhich The Samoantsunami–whatcanwelearn? increasing itsresilience tothewaves. were shieldedbyit.Thechurch alsohashighfoundations, large whitechurch are totallydestroyed exceptthetwothat buildings remained intactornot.Here, buildingsaround the  Distancefrom theshore andshieldingbothaffected whether - are shielded from incomingwaves. - are well-constructedandbuiltaccording tobuildingcodes - havereinforced concrete orcore-filled concrete blockwalls - haveelevatedandsoundfoundations - are elevatedorawayfrom theshore Photo: NZ Defence Force. Photo: Stefan Reese, NIWA resistant todamage. such asconcrete columns,were alsosignificantlymore same inundationdepth.Buildingswithminimalreinforcement, (bottom) sustainedsevere damageorwere destroyed atthe doors, whereas nearbytimber-framed orbrickbuildings suffered onlyminordamage,suchasbroken windowsand Reinforced concrete buildings,suchasthechurch (top)  butdidn’t. evident inmanybuildingsthatshouldhavesurvivedthetsunami building materials,orfailure tofollowbuildingcodeswere were underminedbythewater. Poorworkmanship,poorquality The poorly-constructedconcrete foundationsofthisbuilding lower wavedepthssosustainedlessdamage. energy, andareaswithextensivereefsseemedtohave degree ofdamage;widerreefsreducedwaveheightor size influencedtheflowdepthandconsequently affected thedamagewroughtbytsunami.Coral-reef topography, andtheexistenceofoffshoreislandsalso coastal reef morphology, as such factors, physical Natural and structuresintheirpath. tanks whichbecamemissilesandweresweptintopeople collapsed buildingsorobjectssuchasunanchoredwater natural environment,butmoredamagingwerepartsof was muchworse.Somedebrisoriginatedfromthe shielding or‘protection’itselfbecamedebris,damage reducing theenergyofincomingwaves.Butwhen Trees ordensevegetationaffordedsomeprotectionby

Photo: Stefan Reese, NIWA Photo:Photo: NZ Stefan Defence Reese, Force NIWA 5

Natural Hazards 2009 Focus on the Samoan tsunami Landslides GNS Science recorded over 317 significant landslides in 2009. These occurred throughout New Zealand, although the majority (at least 240) were triggered by the magnitude 7.8 Dusky Sound earthquake on 15 July. The others were mostly triggered by rainfall. Of note this year were a number of fatalities related to mass movement phenomena. In January two visitors to Fox Glacier were killed by an icefall at the terminal face, and a possum trapper died after a rock fell on him near Omarama Station, North Otago.

Hazards summary Hazards The most significant rainstorm-triggering landslides occurred on 30 June 2009 when northern Hawke’s Bay and the Gisborne region were affected. Several roads were closed by slips between Gisborne and Tolaga Bay. Thirty slips were reported on SH2 between Napier and Wairoa. Another rainstorm caused major disruption to travel in and around Wellington on 23 July. Slips closed the Wairarapa railway line near Upper Hutt and the North Island main trunk line near Tawa. Trains hit both slips, with a major derailment occurring on the Upper Hutt line, stranding 300 passengers inside the Mangaroa tunnel for more than two hours. State Highway 1 was blocked by a slip near Pukerua Bay and slips also blocked SH58 between Pauatahanui and Haywards and the Paekakariki Hill Road. This left the Akatarawa Road and SH2 over the Rimutaka Hill as the only overland transport routes out of Wellington.

Source: GNS Science

Heavy rain & floods There were numerous heavy rainfall events during 2009, about fifteen of which produced significant flooding. Mt Cook received the three highest one-day rainfalls of 2009, with 341 mm on 27 April (its highest April one-day total since records began in 1928), 321 mm on 16 May, and 295 mm on 26 April. Torrential rain also occurred in Greymouth on 27 April, and roads became impassable. At least nine homes were evacuated. Flooding also forced the closure of SH6 at Punakaiki, and between Haast and Makarora. On 17 May SH1 south of Ashburton was closed after the Rangitata River burst its banks. The main railway line between Rangitata River and Temuka was also closed by flooding. Inland, 33 people were evacuated in Omarama, as water was up to 1 m deep in places after a stopbank designed to cope with a 100-year flood was overtopped. A major slip closed SH8, on the Omarama side of the Lindis Pass. On 18 May farmers near Balclutha used boats to rescue sheep stranded by the flooded Clutha River. The Skippers Road in Queenstown was closed after slips and washouts. On 29 June heavy rain caused slips and the closure of SH4 between Raetihi and Wanganui. SH57 between Palmerston North and Linton was flooded, and slips occurred in the Manawatu Gorge. On 30 June, the residents of the small settlement of Mangatuna near Gisborne were evacuated following heavy rainfall. Many

Natural Hazards 2009 Natural Hazards slips affected the Napier-Taupo Road, and SH2 between Napier and Wairoa, although both remained open. Source: NIWA National Climate Centre 6 defence emergencywasdeclared. evacuation on29June,SH41wasclosed,andacivil very real.TaupoDistrictCouncilannouncedanofficial In 2009,theperceivedthreatofalargelandslidewas villagers. with threehistoriclandslidesresultinginthedeathsof The surroundingareaissynonymouswithlandslides, Waihi’s deadlylandslides escarpment, partofthehighly-activeHipauageothermalfield,betterknownas‘TheSteamingCliffs’. numerous nearbyearthquakesinthepreceding days. ThevillagesitsatthefootofWaihi Fault endofLakeTaupo.the southern Around 35villageresidents hadself-evacuatedon29Junefollowing On 30June2009theGeoNetlandslideresponse teamattendedapotentiallandslideatWaihi village,at Monitoring thelandslidethreat atWaihi visibility tofacilitate GPSsurveys. as closetothe cliff edgeaspossiblein areas withacceptablesky placed alongthe scarpabovethebankof Waimatai stream the Hipauathermalarea. Nineteengalvanisedtubeshave been  Surveymarktomonitorthestability oftheground above also shown. Some potentialsource areas (psa)offuture largelandslidesare village islocatedoutside(north)ofthe1910landslidezone. debris, basedonahistoricalphoto.Themainarea ofWaihi 1846, and1910),theestimatedextentof1910landslide shown includethesource areas ofthree historicalfailures (1780, Waihi landslidearea aboveWaihi village.Themainfeatures  AnnotatedGoogleEarthimage(20March 2007)showingthe • • • village wasrelocatedfromitsoriginalsite. 1910: onepersondied.Followingthislandslide,the Te HeuHeu. 1846: 64peopledied,includingparamountchief 1780: around150liveswerelostasapawasburied.

Photo: Dick Beetham, GNS Science Why theself-evacuation? under wayincludes: field arelikelytobehaveinthefuture.Workalready understand howtheslopesinHipauageothermal recommendations forresearchneededtohelpbetter monitored network.Theteamalsomadeanumberof potential landslidesources.Thesenowformaclosely of therisksassociatedwiththeirenvironment. alteration oftherock–andlocalpeoplearewell-aware steep slopesandmaterialsweakenedbyhydrothermal of theuniquegeologicalconditionsfoundinarea– Past landslidesaroundWaihihaveoccurredbecause developing whileexistingspringsdriedup. for example,birdsdisappearing,andnewhotsprings April 2009.Localsalsoreportedanecdotalchanges– earthquakes hadoccurredintheareaaroundWaihisince In addition,severalhundredsmallermagnitude over theweekendof27–28Juneshookvillage. after twonearbyshallowmagnitude4earthquakes Villagers becamenervousaboutthethreatofalandslide • • • nz/resources/landslide/landslide-reports.html http://www.geonet.org. GNS Sciencereport 2009/34,availableat: of potentiallandslidesignsandtheir triggers. Waihi community,meanwhile,continues tobevigilantandaware being evaluatedbyTaupoDistrict Council andotheragencies.The Our reportoftheeventanditsrecommendations arecurrently incipient landsliding. any changesinthetopographywhichcouldindicate after the27–28Juneearthquakestoseeifthereare comparison ofLiDARdatacollectedbothbeforeand preceding the27–28Juneearthquakes, to seeifmovementhadoccurredintheweeks acquisition ofsatellite-basedradarimages(InSAR) over time, to monitorgroundmovement(orlackofmovement) installation ofeightadditionalgroundsurveymarks acquisition ofground-basedsurveydata,including Fault escarpmentinandaround along theridgelineofWaihi The teaminstalled11surveymarks 3 July. villagers returnedtotheirhomeson landslide activitywasfound,and No evidenceofrecentlarge-scale and theWaihiFaultescarpment. village, theHipauageothermalarea, of keylocationsaroundWaihi They thenmadefieldinspections the lasttenyears)landslideactivity. look forsignsof‘recent’(within an aerialinspectionoftheareato GeoNet scientistsinitiallyundertook The response from scientists 7

Natural Hazards 2009 Focus on Waihi landslides Snow, hail, & electrical storms It was a snowy year, with many snowfalls across New Zealand. Significant snowfalls, which were widespread and to low levels, occurred on 31 May, 16 June, 2–5 July, and 4–6 October. On 31 May snow and slips closed the highway between Opotiki and Gisborne. Snow fell to sea level along Wellington’s south coast and from Southland to Kaikoura, and blanketed high- country passes. Heavy snow on 2–3 July closed the Desert Road and also the Haast Pass. Cromwell was cut off, and schools in the area were closed. In July and August two skiers were killed by separate Hazards summary Hazards avalanches in the Ragged Range of mid-Canterbury, and a snowboarder was killed by an avalanche near Coronet Peak, Queenstown. A series of avalanches on 1–2 August blocked the only road access to Milford Sound for 10 days, as both ends of the Homer Tunnel were buried in more than 100,000 tonnes of debris. Snow on 4–6 October in Hawke’s Bay and the central North Island was exceptionally late and very heavy. Hundreds of travellers were stranded as numerous roads were closed, and there were heavy lambing losses. A local state of emergency was declared. Snow also fell in Taranaki, Waikato and Rotorua on 6 October (for the first time in about 30 years around Rotorua). On 3 January, thunder and hail caused disruption in Christchurch; on 18 January hail hit Ashburton for half an hour, and vegetable crops were ruined. Thunderstorms brought heavy rain and lightning to Taranaki, Auckland and the western Bay of Plenty on 26–31 August. Source: NIWA National Climate Centre

Temperature New Zealand’s climate for 2009 was characterised by frequent see-saws in temperature, but for the year as a whole the national average temperature was 12.3 °C, 0.2 °C below the long-term normal. The highest annual average temperature was 15.8 °C at Whangarei. New records for temperature extremes were set during the February 2009 heat wave, especially in the east of the North Island. It was also the warmest August since records began 155 years ago. The highest recorded extreme temperature of the year (38.0 °C) occurred in Culverden on 8 February. It was the highest February maximum temperature ever recorded at this location. The second highest temperature for the year was 37.8 °C in Cheviot on 8 February and the third highest was 37.3 °C in Wairoa (East Cape) recorded on 1 February. Kaitaia, Warkworth, Dannevirke, and Le Bons Bay had their coolest year on record. The lowest extreme air temperature for the year was –11.7 ºC at Middlemarch on 19 July, followed by –11.0 °C at Lake Tekapo and –10.4 °C at Tara Hills (both on 14 July). It was a sunny year overall – sunshine hours were above normal in Northland, central areas of the North Island, East Cape, southern Hawke’s Bay, West Coast, Canterbury and southeast Otago. Kaitaia, Tauranga, Taumarunui, and Greymouth all experienced their sunniest year on record. The sunniest centre in 2009 was Nelson, recording 2571 hours.

Natural Hazards 2009 Natural Hazards Source: NIWA National Climate Centre

8 Southern Alps. scientists calculate changesinglaciermass inthe change impacts inNewZealand.Itwillalso help of seasonalsnow,avalanches, snowmeltandclimate- computer models,willimprove scientificunderstanding Data fromthenetwork,combined withadvanced The primaryaimsofthenetworkaretwo-fold: across NewZealand’salpineareas. 12 high-techsnowandicemonitoringstationsspread Snow andIceMonitoringNetwork–anetworkofupto this goal,in2006NIWAbegandevelopingtheNational processes andalpinemeteorology.Asasteptowards avalanches requiresabetterunderstandingofsnow Improving ourknowledgeandabilitytopredict NIWA’s SnowandIceMonitoringNetwork How doavalancheshappen? longer thananticipated. snowpack remainedactiveinmanyplacesformuch been consideredsafesufferedfromavalanches,andthe and inareasunstable.Somethathadalways between thislayerandthesnowaboveremainedweak icy layerwassubsequentlyburied;howeverthebond created asmooth,icylayerlowinthesnowpack.This early intheseason,whenrain,snowmelt,andrefreeze This year’sdangeroussnowpacksituationwasinitiated What causedthisyear’s avalanches? areas. locals andtouristswork,play,travelthroughthese people donotgenerallyliveinavalanche-proneregions, killed byavalancheseachyear.InNewZealand,while worldwide. InNorthAmericaanaverageof42peopleare Avalanches areadangeroushazardinmountainousareas destroyed inaseasonthatsawwidespread andpersistent avalancheconditions. Alps.Threethe Southern peoplewere killed,manyotherswere injured, andseveralbuildingswere The 2009winterbrought numerous seriousavalanches toNewZealand’s mountains,especially Avalanches prove deadlyin2009 (ii) (i) Source: WSDOT, NorthwestWeather andAvalanche Center. Slab avalanchesare generallythemostdangerous. snow coverbreak away, leavingawell-definedfracture line. B) Slab:Weak layerdeeperinthesnowpack:solidchunksof of loosesnowtoslidedownhill. A) Loose:Weak layerofsnownearsurface:causesacascade There are twotypesofavalanches: A ice. to assesstheimpactofclimate changeonsnowand resource andahazard, to gainabetterunderstandingofsnowandiceas layer weak shallow B layer weak deep line fracture live, work,andplayinalpineregions. communicating therisksmoreeffectivelytopeoplewho understanding ofthenatureavalanches,andthen and damageisthroughusingsciencetoimproveour the world.Thebestwaytomitigateavalanchefatalities New Zealandandbetransferabletoelsewherearound This willgreatlyimprovesafetyinavalancheterrain likely toavalancheinsomeplacesratherthanothers. snowpack spatialvariability–whatmakessnowmore avalanches willimprove,asourunderstandingof As thescienceatNIWAprogresses,ourabilitytoforecast ability toforecastavalanchesforaregion. avalanche forecasters,andaregreatlyimprovingtheir The stationsareprovidingnear-real-timedatatolocal sensor, alongwithotherstandardclimateparameters. sites. Thesemeasuresnowdepthusinganultrasonic So farNIWAhasinstalledninesnowandicemonitoring current network forthislocation. fatality locationandisthemostrepresentative siteinour siteisapproximatelyAlbert Burn 60kmnorthoftheavalanche of the mechanismswhichcanincrease avalancherisk.The siteinlessthanfourdays. Heavysnowfallisone Albert Burn locations, withmore than50cmofsnowrecorded atthe Note thesharpincrease ofsnowdepthatthetwomonitoring also shown. Alps.Theavalanchefatalityon2August2009is the Southern Snow depthsattwoofNIWA’s snowandicemonitoringsitesin Photo: Jordy Hendrikx,NIWA Installing asnowand icemonitoringstation,MtPotts.

Snow depthSnow depth (m) (m) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.4 0 1 1-Jan

Murchison Mountains 9-Jan 18-Jan 27-Jan 5-Feb 13-Feb 22-Feb 2-Mar 11-Mar 19-Mar 28-Mar 6-Apr 15-Apr 23-Apr 2-May AlbertBurn 11-May 20-May 28-May 6-Jun Date 15-Jun Date 24-Jun 2-Jul 11-Jul 20-Jul 29-Jul 6-Aug 15-Aug 24-Aug

Avalanche Death 2-Sep 10-Sep 19-Sep 28-Sep 7-Oct 15-Oct 24-Oct 2-Nov 11-Nov 19-Nov 28-Nov 7-Dec 16-Dec 9

Natural Hazards 2009 Focus on avalanches Wind & tornadoes It was a very windy year and, in addition, at least eight tornadoes were recorded. The highest recorded wind gust for the year was 184 km/h at Southwest Cape, Stewart Island, on 4 November. Gale force winds on 3 January caused havoc in Canterbury, with more than 10 000 homes left without power. On 23–24 May, southerly gales hammered Wellington, causing damage and disruption. Cook Strait ferries were cancelled, and flights were disrupted.

Hazards summary Hazards On 11 July a person was killed in Northland when a tree was blown onto the caravan she occupied. On 14 September record high wind gusts were experienced over the southern South Island. One person was killed when a tree fell onto a vehicle. Other damage included felled power lines and lifted roofs. On 4–5 October high winds and heavy snow brought down trees and power poles across the central North Island, leaving 1300 people without power, some for four days. New Plymouth airport closed for 20 hours, and falling trees cut power to 1000 Taranaki properties. On 8 January a tornado ripped the roof off the Bannockburn Hotel in Cromwell and dumped it onto near-by power lines. On 11 and 17 May Warkworth and Taranaki respectively were hit by tornadoes, and property and trees were damaged. On 2 September a 10 m twister caused havoc near Invercargill, and on 28 September a tornado in Ramarama, near Auckland, damaged properties and uprooted trees. Source: NIWA National Climate Centre

Low rainfall & drought Rainfall during the year was below normal (50 to 80 percent of normal) in parts of Auckland, central North Island, northern Hawkes Bay, southern Wairarapa, North Canterbury, inland South Canterbury and Central Otago. Taupo had its driest year since records began. Other areas received near-normal rainfall. Ranfurly in Central Otago was the driest of the sites where NIWA records rainfall, with 263 mm of rain for the year (62 percent of normal), followed by Clyde with 299 mm (72 percent of normal), and Middlemarch with 365 mm (70 percent of normal). It was an extremely dry spring in eastern parts of Northland, Auckland, and Coromandel (rainfall below 75 percent of normal). Spring rainfall was also well below normal over much of the South Island. Arthurs Pass, Lake Tekapo, Ranfurly, and Lumsden all had their driest spring since records began. Soil moisture levels were below normal in many regions by the end of the year, with significant deficits (greater than 130 mm) in Northland, eastern Bay of Plenty, and inland Otago.

Natural Hazards 2009 Natural Hazards Source: NIWA National Climate Centre

10 produce numerousfalsealarms. measure calledtheEnergyHelicityIndex(EHI),tendto Even thebestpredictionsatthisresolution,usinga which havearesolution(gridspacing)ofaround12km. tornadoes, orusingnumericalweatherpredictionmodels identify existingsevereweathersystemsknowntospawn forecasters usingsatelliteorradarobservationsto Current methodsofforecastingtornadoesrelyon several kilometres. but thethunderstormsthatdrivethemoccuronscalesof Tornado vorticesoccuronscalesofafewtensmetres, sizes, butalwaysforminassociationwiththunderstorms. Tornadoes arecomplex,andcomeinmanyshapes Tornado forecasts athighresolution andultimatelyimproveto gainabetterunderstandingofthedynamicstornadoes, forecasts. forecast thelargerotatingOuraimis thunderstormcomplexes (mesocyclones)thatspawntornadoes. at theabilityofahighresolution versionofNIWA’s powerfulweather-prediction model,NZLAM,to eachyear.New Zealandhas,onaverage,sevendamagingtornadoes NIWA scientistsare looking Improving forecasts tornado dollars worthofdamagebutnofatalities. damaged over60propertiesandcausedsevenmillion which waspartofalargetornadooutbreakinTaranaki killed twopeople;inJuly2007Oakuraatornado near WaitarainTaranakidestroyedafarmhouseand highly variable.Forexample,inAugust2004atornado Fatalities andpropertydamagecausedbytornadoesare cold outflow N inflow andcoldoutflow Boundary betweenthewarm Wind direction relative tothestorm Downdrafts (DD) Main thunderstormupdraft(UD) warm inflow

storm motion T UD

T T coastline Taranaki thunderstorm Extent ofradarecho Likely locationoftornadoes boundary Rising airalongthefrontal with aleadtimeofninehours. reproducing potentialtornado-producingmesocyclones suggest thata2-kmresolutionmodelwascapableof prior thatevent)ofthe2007Taranakitornadoes.Results (a forecastofapasteventusingonlydataavailableto We havebeenusingNZLAM-2toproduceahindcast Testing forecasts withhindcasts warnings. leading tofewerfalsealarmsandmoredetailed timing, location,growth,andseverityofthunderstorms, model. Thisshouldresultinamuchbetterpictureofthe observations ofexistingsevereweathersystemsintothe weather systems.Wecanalsoinputahigherdensityof the physicalprocessesoccurringwithinsevere gives ustheopportunitytorepresentmoreaccurately Using NZLAM-2(NZLAM*witharesolutionof2km) Some ofthequestionswehopetoanswerinclude: the updraftsanddowndrafts–knowntocausetornadoes. representation ofthephysicalconditions–forexample, used forhazardforecasting.Thiswillmeanmoreaccurate 2010, willenableanevenhigher-resolutionmodeltobe NIWA’s newsupercomputer,duetobecommissionedin Our forecasting capability willimprove further * NZLAM-New ZealandLimitedAreaModel precautions whentheseare warranted. too manyfalsealarms–sothey cantakenecessary greater detailaboutthepossibility oftornadoes–without Ultimately wewanttobeable toforewarnpeoplewith • • • 5 July2007,aroundstruck. thetimethattornadoes movements off theTaranaki coast,6:30pmand 7:00pm, NZLAM-2 forecasts showingfieldsofstrong verticalair would usingaveryhighresolutionversionof generate theTaranakitornadoes? time forNZLAM-2toforecastconditionslikely what wouldhavebeenthelongestpossiblelead-in New Zealand? simulate themesocycloneswhichspawntornadoesin what istheminimumresolutionneededtoadequately to estimatetheEHIreducefalsealarmrates?

NZLAM

11

Natural Hazards 2009 Focus on tornadoes Volcanic activity 2009 was a quiet year for New Zealand’s volcanoes, with no eruptions onshore, but several short-lived periods of activity at Monowai submarine volcano in the Kermadec Islands. Monowai lies about 1450 km NNE of Auckland (380 km north of Raoul Island) in the northern Kermadecs. The summit of the active cone lies at depths of between about 70 m and 130 m. White Island’s crater lake rose to about 8 metres below overflow in 2009 and stabilised. Changes continued in an area of high temperature (100–120 °C) steam vents on the southern side of the main crater floor. In May the vents became more

Hazards summary Hazards active and small amounts of mud spatter and acid emissions occurred during the rest of 2009. White Island remained at Volcanic Alert Level 1. Ruapehu experienced elevated lake temperatures (33–36°C), slightly elevated sulphur dioxide and carbon dioxide gas emissions, and volcanic tremor, in January. The lake temperature then declined to reach a low of 18 °C by May before starting to reheat in June. Volcanic earthquakes on 14 July produced a small overflow from the lake, but no eruptions. Ruapehu remained at Volcanic Alert Level 1 throughout 2009. Ngauruhoe’s Volcanic Alert Level was raised to Level 1 in 2006, then lowered to Level 0 in 2008. Earthquake activity recommenced in late December 2008 and continued until June 2009, but as the activity was relatively minor the Volcanic Alert Level remained at Level 0.

Source: GNS Science

Coastal hazards In 2009, most locations recorded their highest storm tides on 23 July. The cause was a broad depression over New Zealand with strong westerlies impinging on western coasts, coinciding with a high perigean-spring tide – i.e., spring tide coinciding with the closest pass (perigee) in 2009 of the Moon in its 27.5- day orbit around the Earth. The highest storm-tide above the local Mean High Water Perigean-Spring mark was on 23 July at Raglan (0.74 m) and just under 0.5 m at Kaikoura and Kapiti Island; also on 10 February at Sumner Head. Most of these storm tides coincided with perigean-spring tides. Each year, dates for these tides (known as ‘red-alert’ days) are listed in advance on the NIWA website. In the winter, Hawke’s Bay received a battering from frequent swell events from May to July. This exacerbated erosion of the foreshore at Westshore and along vulnerable Haumoana to Clifton coastal sites. Winter storms undermined defences protecting the access road to Clifton Motor Camp causing partial loss of the road. A house at Haumoana was finally lost to the winter swells. Large pine trees were killed by inundation from winter storms in south Westland. A sealed car park has been abandoned at Tahunanui Back beach in Nelson. The highest waves at any of the monitored sites were recorded during one of these winter storms, with significant wave height at Baring Head reaching 7.35 m on 23 May. www.niwa.co.nz/our-science/coasts/tools-and-resouces/tides/ dates Source: NIWA National Climate Centre; NIWA Sea-Level Monitoring Network Natural Hazards 2009 Natural Hazards

12 Hail coats a Mt Manganui road, 11 May 2009. (Photo: Brent Sheriff. NZPA)

$millions$millions The costofthedamagewas$75,000. hospital andabout17residentialpropertiesinKaitaia. On 4Julyasmalltornadocauseddamagetolocal hail. Thehailstormcostinsurers$2.3million. extensive roofandwaterdamageduetotheweightof buildings. TheBayfairshoppingcentreatAratakisuffered kiwifruit orchards,residentialproperties,andcommercial and PapamoaBeach.Therewassignificantdamageto intense hailstormhitareasbetweenTePuke,Tauranga The mostexpensiveeventoccurredon11May,whenan in 2008,so2009willgodownasaquietyearnaturaldisasterterms. costing insurers atotal$6.75million.Thiscompares withnaturaldisasterclaimstotaling$86.27million The InsuranceCouncilrecorded fourweather- andoneearthquake-related claimseventsin2009, A benignyearfornaturaldisasterclaims 100 150 200 250 300 350 • • • • • Tornado –Taranaki, 21July2009 • • • • • Earthquake –Fiordland, 15July2009 • • • • • • Storms –NorthIsland,11–12July2009 • • • • • Tornado –Kaitaia,4July2009 • • • • • Hailstorm –BayofPlenty, 11May2009 and earthquakeclaims Summary of 2009’s largest weather 50 0 Motor vehicleclaims,$300 Commercial claims,$43,500 Residential homeandcontentsclaims,$321,500 Total payoutbyinsurers, $500,000 29 claimslodged Motor vehicleclaims,$3,500 Commercial claims,$979,500 Residential homeandcontentsclaims,$496,500 Total payoutbyinsurers, $1.5million 188 claimslodged Marine claims,$259,500 Motor vehicleclaims,$58,500 Commercial claims,$480,000 Residential homeandcontentsclaims,$824,000 Total payoutbyinsurers, $1.7million 681 claimslodged Motor vehicles,$5,000 Commercial claims,$49,000 Residential homeandcontentsclaims,$17,500 Total payoutbyinsurers, $75,000 12 claimslodged Motor vehicles,$331,000 Commercial claims,$290,500 Residential homeandcontentsclaims,$1,642,500 Total payoutbyinsurers, $2.3million 1200 claimslodged. million), the 1999Queenstown floods($46 million)andthe 2004lowerNorth Islandfloods, whichcostinsurers $112 million. Since thenthere havebeenanumberof significantlosses,themostcostly ofwhichincludethe1987 BayofPlentyearthquake($357 The InsuranceCouncil hasmaintainedaninsurance hazard lossregister since1968,whentheWahine sank in Wellington Harbour. 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

1984 Insurance industrypayoutsfornaturalhazard events insurers considerinthenot-too-distantfuture. mapping inNewZealand;however,itcouldbesomething There isnocurrentplantointroduceinsurer-basedflood map offlood-riskareasinalltownsandcitiesAustralia. This providesinsurersandlocalauthoritieswithadetailed Information Database,inpartnershipwithstategovernments. Australian insurershaverecentlydevelopedaNationalFlood future. coastal developmentsmaybecomemoredifficulttoinsurein areas thataresusceptibletofloodingandstormsurge.New in coastalareasofNewZealand,especiallylow-lying Insurers arenowlookingverycloselyattheriskstheyinsure Insurers look hard at coastal properties present, reducingthedisruptiontofamiliesandbusinesses. customers’ damagedpropertiesmuchmorequicklythanat should beabletoobtainbuildingconsentsforrepairstheir group. Bythemiddleof2010,allInsuranceCouncilmembers Significant progresshasbeenmadebythejointworking property damage. consents, forbusinessesandhomeownersthathavesuffered Authorities todevelopafast-tracksystemforbuilding Council wasworkingwithAucklandBuildingConsent In NaturalHazards2008wereportedthattheInsurance Fast-track claimssystemupdate 1985 1986 1987 amounting to$500,000. number ofhousesweredamaged.Insurerspaidclaims On 21JulyatornadohitOpunake,Taranaki,where property damageamountedtoalmost$1million. from InvercargilltoQueenstown.Claimsforcommercial The Fiordlandearthquakeon15Julycauseddamage property. Insurerspaidclaimsof$1.7million. of thedamagewasminorfloodingandwindto and WaikatothroughtoAucklandNorthland.Most of theNorthIslandfromGisbornetoBayPlenty On 11–12Julyheavyrainanddamagingwindshitareas 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 13

Natural Hazards 2009 Insurance Council The Earthquake Commission in 2009 EQC’s principal role is to manage the insurance of residential property (buildings, contents, and land) against damage by specified natural perils. EQC also manages the Natural Disaster Fund and oversees arrangements for deploying financial assistance as quickly as possible following a major EQC event. In addition, EQC funds research into geological hazards and risk mitigation, and informs New Zealanders about how they can make their homes safer from the effects of natural disasters. Investment in research in 2009 Some examples of recent EQC-funded research GNS Science In 2009 EQC’s research-related investments approached • Acceptable interstorey drifts at ultimate limit state $10 million. Included were: • Quake to crater: magma’s ultimate race • support for technologies and expertise in geophysical • Continued development of the New Zealand earthquake forecast data collection and management testing centre • faculty positions at four New Zealand universities • Improving the identification of volcanic deformation in GPS arrays • Scaling law and repeat times for Ruapehu volcanic eruptive events • grants for research by experienced and emerging • The New Zealand earthquake forecast testing centre: prospective researchers testing phase 1

• a variety of sponsorship arrangements to facilitate University of Canterbury technical meetings and wider dissemination of knowledge resulting from EQC-funded research. • Building regularity for simplified modelling • Modelling of reinforced soil walls under seismic loading • Characterisation of the undrained behaviour of Christchurch soils Major EQC research programmes University of Auckland

EQC is funding four major long-term research • Automatic identification of phase-timing, magnitude estimation and programmes: earthquake detection using neural networks and novel wavelets • Its Our Fault – understanding Wellington’s seismic risk • Forced dynamic testing of full-scale buildings • • Determining Volcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA) Seismic damage-resistant system for modular steel structures • Science to Practice - drawing together EQC’s University of Otago investment in capability at several research • Geophysical characterisation of the Alpine Fault within the Haast Valley organisations to strengthen links with stakeholders, • Seismic risk and disaster readiness in the NZ tourism industry – risk including engineering lifelines groups, local preparedness, strategy and communication government, consulting firms, and Standards NZ Victoria University of Wellington • Research on time-varying hazards - linking physical • A grid-based facility for large-scale cross-correlation of continuous and statistical modelling to build understanding of seismic data the timing variability among earthquake and volcanic • Clarifying why people take fewer mitigating actions than survival actions hazards. • Retrofitting house foundations to resist earthquakes Massey University

• Building a geochemically constrained time-varying eruption hazard EQC claims in 2009 forecasting model for Mt Taranaki Earthquakes • Understanding disaster preparedness and effective post-disaster recovery among older adults living in the community Landslip/Storm/Flood Opus International Consulting

• Parapet damage in the 2007 Gisborne earthquake

GeoNet – bigger and better in 2009 EQC and Land Information NZ (LINZ) are the major funders of GeoNet, New Zealand’s geological hazard monitoring system. Now in its ninth year, GeoNet continues to work towards its target of comprehensive national coverage and the capacity to support scientific and engineering research on geological hazard and risk. Raoul Island was the focus of a major project in 2009. Volcano monitoring instruments, a tsunami detection sensor, and a GPS monument to track earth movements were installed, all of which contribute to Pacific and global networks. The Fiordland magnitude 7.8 earthquake in July was a good test of GeoNet’s capabilities; the network performed Number Total cost better than ever, delivering high-quality data and of claims ($ million) information to those who needed it. In 2009, GeoNet also Earthquakes total* 6764 7.8 became connected to ‘Twitter’, enabling people to receive *inc. Fiordland earthquake 5219 6.1 free texts with the latest earthquake information, news, and volcanic alerts. Landslip, storm, & flood 1087 11.5 Natural Hazards 2009 Natural Hazards

14 broadcast ofan emergencyannouncement, areissued. accompanied by mediareleasesorrequests forthe meets hazardthresholds,then advisoriesorwarnings, the informationitreceives, and iftheinformation a 24/7basisfromtheseagencies. Theteamassesses has adutyteamthatreceives hazardnotificationson warnings forthesehazards at thenationallevel.MCDEM specific hazardsandissuing, orsupportingtheissue,of A numberofagenciesareentrustedwithmonitoring and televisionstations. of nationalagencies,lifelineutilities,andvariousradio groups andtheirmembers(alllocalauthorities),arange consists ofemail,fax,andSMSmessagessenttoCDEM these viaitsNationalWarningSystem(NWS).TheNWS warnings toagenciesandcentralgovernment.Itissues from hazards,MCDEMisresponsibleforissuingofficial When thereisanimminentthreattolifeorproperty The NationalWarning System area duetoheavysnow. landslides, andtheotheron5OctoberforTaupo one on29JuneforWaihivillageduetothethreatof Two statesoflocalemergencyweredeclaredin2009, activated inresponsetothreeearthquakes2009: The NationalCrisisManagementCentre(NCMC)was oradvisoriesviatheNationalWarning consequences, soMCDEMissuedwarnings System. andnotificationsofeventsdidpointtomore action wasneeded.Ahandfulofwarnings serious There wasnoimminentthreat tolifeorproperty formostofthesenotificationssonofurther and geologicalnotificationseventsin2009.Asistypical,earthquakesheavyraindominated. The MinistryofCivilDefence&EmergencyManagement(MCDEM)monitored 731severe weather Hazard notifications&theNational System Warning • • • potential tsunamithreat. the 8OctoberVanuatuIslandsearthquakeand Samoa, andTonga resulted inthetsunamithataffectedAmerican the 30SeptemberSamoanearthquake,which the 15JulyFiordlandearthquake

Number of events 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Recorded warnings and hazard 50 events bytype,2008and2009 0

Earthquakes

Tsunami bulletins

Volcanic bulletins

Heavy rain warnings

Strong wind warnings

Heavy snow warnings

Sea swell warnings

Tornadoes 2008 2009 register withMCDEM. meet requiredparticipationstandardsandthencan than localauthoritiesandemergencyservices),must Any agenciesthatwishtoreceiveNWSwarnings(other affected areas. by providingassessmentsofthelikelyimpactonany we aimtoinformtheemergencyresponseandpublic events, likeearthquakes,wherewarningisnotpossible, volcanic eruption)asquicklypracticable.Forsudden events withalead-intime(forexample,tsunamiand injury, anddamage.Weaimtoprovidewarningsabout general cantakeactiontopreventandreducelossoflife, local authorities,respondingagencies,andpeoplein MCDEM’s aimistoissuewarningsoradvisoriessothat Who issuesnationalwarnings? atqaeGSSineMCDEM,MinistryofHealth,CDEM GNSScience Earthquake Hazard Volcanic snm MCDEM Tsunami eruption weather Warning Systemforanytypeofhazard. N.B. Nationalwarningscanbeissuedviathe unrest/ Severe BROADCAST PUBLIC PUBLIC BROADCAST INFORMATION TV/radio MEDIA MetService Pacfific Tsunami Warning Center GNS Science (GeoNet) Other (GeoNet) Science GNS Center Warning Tsunami Pacfific MetService Responsible N cec MCDEM,MinistryofHealth,CDEM GNS Science eSrieMCDEM,MinistryofHealth,CDEM MetService agency NATIONAL WARNINGMESSAGE NATIONAL WARNINGSYSTEM: ALERT NOTIFICATION SYSTEMS NOTIFICATION ALERT ENVIRONMENT COMMUNITIES FOLLOW UP AND TERMINATION AND UP FOLLOW MONITORING AND DETECTIO AND MONITORING ANALYSE AND DECIDE AND ANALYSE ALERT NOTIFICATION ALERT MCDEM ANALYSE Support agencyoragencies groups, Police, Fire Service,and groups, Police,Fire Service,and groups, Police,andFire Service groups, Police,andFire Service Ministry ofHealth,CDEM nominated radio andTV nominated radioandTV N ANALYSE AND DECIDE AND ANALYSE L LOCAL WARNING LOCAL govt. departments OCAL WARNING WARNING OCAL / lifelineutilities CDEM Groups CDEM RESPONSE SYSTEMS:

15

Natural Hazards 2009 MCDEM Broadcast public information eSrie aicTuaiWrigCnr GSSine(eNt Other GNSScience(GeoNet) Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre MetService ALERT NOTIFICATION SYSTEMS: NATIONAL WA National Warning Message Fo Monitoring anddetection ENVIRONMENT llow upandtermination Analyse anddecide Alert notification MCDEM Analyse RNING SYSTEM: govt LOCAL WARNING SYSTEMS: . . departments /lifelineutilities Analyse anddecide CDEM Groups Local Response Wa rning Filomena Nelson is Principal Disaster Management Officer, Disaster Management Office, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Apia, Samoa. This is her experience of the 29 September and following days.

6.48 Samoan time (17:48 UTC): tsunami generated by a Mw 8.1 earthquake, approximately 195 km south of Apia, Samoa, 18 km deep.

6:48 Contacted officer on duty to send tsunami warning, contacted Fire Service to activate siren system, and on the way to evacuate town. “I knew from the time I felt the earthquake that a tsunami would be generated because this one was so different from earthquakes we had experienced before. I called the office to send the warning straight away. I was nervous but I tried to calm myself for the sake of the survivors.” 6:58 – 7:08 approx: waves hit Samoa. Waves reach eastern Samoa only 10 minutes after the earthquake. Villages in the Aleipata region worst affected.

7:00 Instructed my staff to activate National Emergency Operation Center. 7.11 Evacuated whole town of Apia; already on my way to the east coast to check for casualties and make a quick assessment of the areas affected. On the phone coordinating response agencies – Fire Service and Police to begin search and rescue, Red Cross for first aid, hospitals to send medical teams to the nearest district hospitals. Also directing my staff to contact road contractors to clear the roads, and making arrangements for food and water for the victims.

9.30 Going through all the worst-affected areas of Aleipata: ensuring that response agencies were on the ground. “I did my best to hold my tears when I arrived at the first worst-affected village [Saleapaga] where myself and a police officer identified the first victim. The sad thing about this victim was that her son was sitting next to her. I think he was about nine to ten years old.”

11.30 Back to Apia town to refuel vehicle. 14.00 Briefing with our CEO who is also Chairman of the Disaster Advisory Committee. First meeting of the National Disaster Council. Continued working in east coast areas. 16.00 On the way to distribute food and water to Aleipata area. 18.00 and into the night Relief distribution continued until two o’clock on Wednesday morning. Photos: Tsunami devastation in Samoa and American Samoa. (Photo: NZ Defence Force, GNS Science, NIWA) devastation in Samoa and American Samoa. (Photo: NZ Defence Force, Photos: Tsunami

16 How did the next couple of days unfold? "Over the next two days I had little more than an hour’s sleep. It was hectic: my office is the core coordinating body for response and relief, people needed food, water, shelter, and so forth. The assistance from within Samoa as well as abroad was overwhelming; there was so much to do to ensure that aid was sorted and distributed to the affected communities. At the same time we had to assess the priorities for relief, and the damage in the affected areas. Lifeline services such as electricity, water, and telecommunication were already being reconnected. The roads were cleared and connected on the day of the tsunami. We also had to submit reports on a daily basis to our Disaster Advisory Committee (DAC) and National Disaster Council (NDC)." In what jobs were you involved in the days after the tsunami? "Response and relief coordination from the national emergency operation center, reporting to the DAC and NDC, liaising with international humanitarian organisations regarding the needs of the affected communities, preparation of media releases and situation reports, preparation of the national funeral service, collaborating with agencies and international agencies in formulating the recovery framework which now guides the recovery and rehabilitation programmes for this tsunami." What were the worst and best aspects of the whole disaster? "The worst is that we lost so many people. The best is that it made everyone realise that despite the technology that we have, awareness plays a key role in reducing the loss of life, in reducing the risks of disasters, in preparing for disasters as well as responding to disasters. Most people that I met on that day told me that most of the villages that were affected did not take our drills seriously as they thought it would never happen. The people that participated in the tsunami drills and did take heed of our awareness ads on TV thanked me for the programmes, which really helped in saving their lives." What have you learnt about yourself, and your colleagues? "About myself? Well I’ve learned that I couldn’t handle everything, I needed more staff. To resolve this we need to have roster in place. It was hard though as not many people are familiar with the National Disaster Management Plan. We need more people who can make quick operational decisions." What will change for Samoan people as a result of the tsunami? "We will never forget this dreadful event and that natural disasters such as these can happen any time, any day, any place....and that we have to be prepared. A lot of people have relocated inland and that’s one of the biggest changes in history." 17 A new structure for natural hazards research Mt Ruapehu erupting, 18 June 1996. Photo: GNS Science. A new structure to manage natural hazards research in New Zealand, the Natural Hazards Research Platform, has been introduced. The Platform provides a stable, long-term research environment for scientists, with decreased competition for funding and an Natural Hazrads Research Platform Natural Hazrads Research emphasis on researcher and end-user consensus on research priorities. Inaugural Platform manager is Kelvin Berryman, who is stepping back from his research-leader role at GNS Science to independently direct the Platform’s projects and relationships. Kelvin Berryman and Bronwyn Davies, Platform Manager and Coordinator. “The new structure will mean we can get the best people together to carry out research, wherever they work,” out by GNS Science, NIWA, and other organisations says Kelvin. “The about-turn from a competitive to a will continue unchanged. The existing five research collaborative environment is an exciting step, and is themes – geological hazards, weather-related hazards, going to require some new thinking from all of us.” risk, engineering, and social science and planning – Features of the new structure were reviewed very favourably recently, and they are delivering good results. The Natural Hazards Research Platform is new and About $2 million of new funding has arrived with the different! initiation of the platform. Compliance costs associated The Platform is managed by the research providers with competitive tendering will be reduced, freeing – its Management Group, led by GNS Science and up more money and time for research. It is anticipated NIWA, includes representatives from agencies currently that the new structure will bring more opportunities for holding natural hazards research contracts (Auckland, co-funding from outside partners who want to support Canterbury, and Massey universities, and Opus operational activities. FRST will continue to fund under- International Ltd. pinning research, and 10 percent of these funds will be open to the wider research community via a contestable Research funds, from the Foundation for Research, process. Science and Technology (FRST), will be allocated via a negotiated process, with research priorities being The first research platform decided by the research leaders, Management Group, and Strategic Advisory Group. Natural hazards research has a long and impressive track record in New Zealand. This, together with its close links The structure is in place for an initial period of ten years, to end users, is why it has been chosen to pilot the first with a review after four years. research platform. Associated administration is undertaken by the Platform, “Natural hazards research in New Zealand has proven rather than FRST. GNS Science is hosting the Platform itself to be cohesive and well organised,” says Kelvin. office; Kelvin Berryman is assisted by Bronwyn Davies, “We have an end-to-end system, where scientists Platform Coordinator. are closely linked to end users, including the civil What are the Platform’s priorities? defence and emergency management community, the Earthquake Commission, policy makers, planners, and The first year is going to be one of ‘bedding in’, the construction industry. The fact that the Government according to Kelvin. The Platform’s Management Group is trusting us to manage ourselves is a great opportunity: will undertake a review of strategic research priorities; we will work hard to disseminate the results of our work Natural Hazards 2009 Natural Hazards meanwhile the natural hazards research being carried for the benefit of all New Zealanders.”

18 website earlyin2011. The will database be to available the public on the NIWA related toweatherevents. authorities tounderstandand analyserespectiverisks Regional dataprovidesavaluable toolforthelocal implications ofdifferenttypesweather-relatedhazards. any trendsorcharacteristicsfound,andassessthe The hazarddataallowsustoidentifyandcompare versus Whanganuioveracertaintime-period. the numberofevacueesduetofloodsinWellington (iii) acombinationoftheabove–e.g.,tofinddataabout caused byextremeweathereventsinAuckland (ii) regionalbasis–e.g.,tofindoutaboutcasualties flooding againstthosefromhighwindsorhail (i) hazardtypes–e.g.,tocomparedamagecostsfrom be searchedunderdifferentparameters: perspectives: hazardtypesandregions.Thedatabasecan damages, andphysicalcharacteristics,fromtwo of historicalweathereventsintermstheirimpacts, Users willbeabletomakeacomprehensiveanalysis Searching thedatabase information wasavailable. losses, andagriculturalimpacts,wheneverthistypeof also indirectlossessuchassocialdisruption,business related hazardsintermsofdirectdamageandlosses; We nowhaveafactualhistoriccontextforweather- most accuraterecordsavailable. lost inanecdotalre-telling:ourdatabaseisbasedonthe events havelongbeenforgotten,orthetruefactsperhaps Alexander Turnbulllibrarycollections.Manyofthe historic publicationsofweather-relatedevents,andthe sources, includingnewspapers,regionalcouncilrecords, To buildthedatabase,wesearchedmanydifferent Database Building the Historic Weather Events needed toreducerisks. planning responsesandinvestments will helpinformdistrictorcity hazards, basedonhistoricrecords, Knowing therelativerisksbetween and vulnerabletonaturalhazards. telecommunications –areexposed railways, airtransport,power,and engineering lifelines–roads, prone land.Alsomanyofour are ever-expandingonhazard- Our citiesandcommunities management groups toassesstheirregional risk tonaturalhazards. RiskScape project (p24,25).RiskScape’s mainaimistoenablelocalauthoritiesandemergency major weather-related hazard eventsfrom theearly1800s.Thedatabaseisacomponentof NIWA isdevelopingtheHistoricWeather Events Database–aweb-basedrecord ofNewZealand’s Encapsulating historicweatherevents submerged asaresultoftheflooding. sheep andcattleweredrownedthousandsofacres in bothHawke’sBayandPovertyBay.Thousandsof The Kopuawharadisasterwasassociatedwithflooding swept awaybythetorrents. All 47huts,includingthecookhouse,wereeventually on topofalargetruckwhichwassweptdownstream. refuge 11 mentook and waters, the rising to escape huts woman drowned.Menwereforcedontotheroofsof the singlemen’ssleepingquarters,and20menone of waterhittheNo.4camp.Thewaterssweptthrough downstream. Accountsindicatethatafive-metrewall Construction CampNo.4andalsoNo.2 a ragingtorrentofwater.ItengulfedPublicWorks February 1938turnedtheKopuawharaStreaminto northern Hawke’sBayataround3.00amon19 A cloudburstinthebackcountryofGisborneand – longforgotten? A 1938 flood disaster in Hawke’s Bay Camp No.4before andaftertheflood.

Ref: PAColl-4431-01, Alexander Turnbull Library, Wellington, New Zealand. 19

Natural Hazards 2009 The value of sustained observations in hazard forecasting Is coastal erosion speeding up? Are storms becoming more frequent or intense? And how do we know whether our predictions of the future magnitude of hazardous events are reliable? Accurate,

Research long-term observations of environmental variables are vital to scientists developing tools to understand why environmental changes have happened in the past, and to make credible forecasts of future climate-related hazards.

Detecting real change amid natural the models. For river and coastal models, we collect data including river hydrographs for selected catchments, sea environmental variability level at around 20 locations around the coast, and wave characteristics measured by buoys deployed offshore. To answer questions about environmental change, we need to meet three criteria: Collecting and utilising marine data 1. the current state of the environment must be assessed In the marine realm, NIWA, together with a number of 2. natural variability at various time scales must be partners including local authorities and port companies, understood and quantified maintains a network of gauges measuring sea level, wave conditions, and sea-surface temperature. 3. the environment and ecosystem must be monitored for trends or changes in physical characteristics or ecosystem From the data collected by these various coastal behaviour. observation stations, we learn more about conditions in our coastal waters and the hazards faced by coastal Monitoring programmes must be designed to allow communities. Longer datasets allow us to detect trends the signal of interest, for example long-term change, and long-term time scales of variability. Climate change to be detected amid the noise and natural variability poses threats of warmer temperatures and increased inherent in environmental observations. For that, we storminess, and the ensuing effects on sea levels, need to observe relevant environmental parameters storm surge, and wave conditions. Maintaining these over sufficient time scales to detect change. Sustained observational networks into the future is therefore of observations provide valuable information and a better paramount importance. understanding of natural processes in their own right, and also play a key role in improving our ability to NIWA also uses data from satellites to understand predict future change. how ocean properties vary spatially. Remotely-sensed data for some of these parameters, such as sea-surface temperature, have now been collected for two decades, and the data may be analysed to determine long-term trends. However, satellite-borne sensors only measure properties at the surface of the ocean, and measurements are still required both to ground-truth the satellite data and to peer into the ocean interior.

An example of sustained monitoring: a 35-year time series of annual-mean sea level at Moturiki and Auckland.

Our computer models of regional climate, river basin, and ocean environments need to be extensively tested before we can use them confidently to provide forecasts. NIWA’s operational system, EcoConnect, has been developed to forecast hazards arising from weather, river flooding, wave conditions, and extreme sea-level events. At the heart of the system is the NZLAM weather Networks of coastal prediction model, which drives the flood, wave, and observation stations around storm surge models. Underpinning all aspects of the New Zealand, measuring sea forecast system are NIWA’s data-collection programmes level, wave conditions, sea- used to develop, calibrate, and test the component surface temperature (SST), models and to assimilate into the day-to-day operation of water quality parameters, and Natural Hazards 2009 Natural Hazards dissolved carbon dioxide.

20 wave dynamics andtheinteractionbetween thetwo. and understandlong-termchanges tobeachmorphology, and playthere.Thecameras offerthepotentialtorecord including rips,increasingsafety forthepeoplewholive and forecastingofwave-related hazardsatthecoast, morphology. Ouraimisto improve understanding dynamics onbeachesandto monitorchangesinbeach controlled videocamerastobetterunderstandwave exploring noveltechniquessuchastheuseofcomputer- As wellasstandardoceansensors,NIWAscientistsare understand wave-related hazards Using novel observations to into numericalmodelforecastingsystems. assimilation methodsthatblendincomingdatastreams the spatialresolutionofourmodels,andadoptingdata representing therelevantphysicalprocesses,increasing sea level,andriverfloods.Wewilldothisbybetter improve theaccuracyofforecastsseastate(waves), We intend,overthecomingyears,tocontinue unfolds. forecasts tokeepthemontrackastherealsituation conditions arealsoregularlyblendedintothemodel and thoserecentdailyobservationsofmeteorological we continuouslytestforecastsagainstthelatestdata, events. Inouroperationalweatherforecastingsystems, comparing modelpredictionswithdatafrompast Testing ourforecastingmodelsinvolvesroutinely Looking backtoforecast thefuture the diagonalline. with thatoftheobservations;aperfectmatchwouldlieon the distributionsofmodelpredictions forbothvariables or stormsurgeonly. Thequantile-quantileplotscompare (SSH), whichincludestidalandstormsurgefluctuations, The modelcanpredict eithertotalseasurfaceheight modelled stormsurgeheightforKapitiIslandduring2000. The topgraphshowsacomparisonbetweenobservedand improve themodelperformance. performance ofthemodel,helpingustoidentifyflawsand data. Thedataare usedtoquantitativelyassessthe predictions ofstormsurgeatKapitiIslandwithobserved The graphs(above)showacomparisonbetweenmodel changing environment. of coastalhazards,whichiscrucialinacapriciousand analysis allowsNIWAtocontinuallyrefinepredictions measures. Thiscycleofsustainedobservationsand to betterinundationwarningsandcoastalprotection and theimplicationsofsea-levelrise,whichinturnleads understanding ofthehazardstsunamis,stormsurges, changes fromminutestodecades.Thisleadsabetter Sustained nationwideobservationstellushowsealevel of sea-levelriseisanon-goingscientificeffortforNIWA. Reducing theriskofcoastalinundationandeffects coastal hazards The life-cycle of scientific knowledge: observations. modelling restsfirmlyonafoundationofsustained lakes, andriversinasustainablemanner.Improved for NewZealandifwearetoutiliseourcoasts,oceans, develop anaccurateforecastingcapability–essential parameters thataremeasured.Thiswillenableusto both intermsofspatialcoverageandtheocean the networkbesustained,developed,andextended, in ourcoastsandoceans.Infuture,itisimperativethat gauges, sensors,andcamerasthatmonitorconditions NIWA andourpartnerscurrentlymaintainanetworkof Summary Contact: MichaelUddstrom [email protected] Funders: FoundationforResearch, Science&Technology Leader: NIWA Programme name:Reducingtheimpactofweather-related hazards continues. hazards require on-goingdatacollection,andthecycle areas andinformhazard response (bottomleft).Sustained (bottom right),whichare thenusedtoidentifyat-risk knowledge isusedtobuildmodelsofstormsurgeheight showhowsealevelvariesovertime(topright).This turn Sea surfaceheightsare collected(topleft),whichin

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Natural Hazards 2009 Research Geological hazards and society New Zealand sits on the boundary between two of the fastest-moving major crustal plates of the Earth. As a consequence, many earth processes occur at a rate that poses considerable hazard to society. New Zealanders have built a significant level of resilience to the impacts of these processes, such that the impacts of frequent small earthquakes, rainstorms, or slope instability become an

Research accepted part of day-to-day life. But the threat of natural hazards is ever-present, and increasing our understanding and safety is just part of the research undertaken at GNS Science.

Increasing our understanding of large, deep, slow-moving landslides At GNS Science we are researching what controls the We are undertaking temporal and spatial high-resolution movement patterns of large, deep-seated, and slow- monitoring, especially of the Taihape and Utiku moving landslides. These landslides typically: landslides. This is providing a better understanding • are greater than one million cubic metres in volume of the relationships between landslide movement • are more than ten metres in depth patterns and the variables that control them – primarily • move less than two metres per year. rainfall-induced changes in pore pressures and changes There are over 7000 mapped large landslides in in material strength. By linking periods of landslide New Zealand, the most infamous of which is the movement to their triggering factors, we have defined Abbotsford, Dunedin, landslide. This landslide slowly thresholds which trigger movement, such as rainfall accelerated from rest to fail rapidly on 8 August 1979, intensity and duration, and ground water pressures. causing severe damage and emergencies. These thresholds are being used to provide warning of landslide movement, and form part of the comprehensive Current research focuses on three large landslides in risk-management strategies adopted to safeguard the Tertiary-age materials: the West Taihape, the Utiku, various assets at risk. and the Waikorora landslides. The landslides have long histories of monitoring (1930 to present) and continue Our research aims to develop better monitoring to damage infrastructure and residential property. This technology and systems, and continue to improve our damage provides good commercial incentive to invest capability to model and predict the behaviour of New substantial resources into detailed investigations of these Zealand’s large, slow-moving landslides. landslides; resources that are not commonly available for academic research. Programme name: Geological hazards and society Leader: GNS Science Funders: Foundation for Research, Science & Technology Contact: Stuart Read [email protected]

The aftermath of the Abbotsford landslide. Photo: GNS Science

Increasing safety on Mt Ruapehu – detecting volcanic eruptions

Over the past 8 years, the GeoNet project has been The Ruapehu Eruption Detection System responsible for volcano monitoring on Mt Ruapehu. Can we use the volcano monitoring systems to warn The monitoring systems continue to be expanded and mountain users that an eruption has occurred? Yes, we upgraded, in close collaboration with the Department of can, and this is the aim of the Eruption Detection System Conservation (DOC). DOC manages Tongariro National (EDS) on Ruapehu, managed by DOC. The science Park, and public safety is a major concern. Monitoring behind the detection of volcanic eruptions has been Ruapehu is especially important since there are three ski developed by GNS Science. fields on the flanks of the volcano. EDS uses a combination of seismic and acoustic signals One of the key volcanic hazards on Ruapehu is lahars: recorded at sites around the mountain to detect an even a moderate eruption can eject Crater Lake water explosion. It was first implemented after the 1995–96 onto the flanks of the volcano and generate rivers of eruptions. Volcanic earthquakes occur frequently rock, mud, snow, ice, and water flowing down through on Ruapehu, but not all of the earthquakes produce valleys on Whakapapa ski field. The other ski areas are explosion eruptions and many earthquakes are not more likely to be affected by tephra (sand-sized rock associated with the volcano at all. Volcanic earthquakes Natural Hazards 2009 Natural Hazards particles up to small rocks) following a volcanic eruption. can be detected by the frequency of the earthquake - 22 located righton theflanksofvolcano. is veryimportant: theseismicandacoustic sensorsareall message andmoveashortdistance outofvalleys.Time 30 seconds,allowingpeople atleastaminutetohearthe the skifield.Thuswarning hastobetriggeredwithin only 90secondsbeforealahar maypassthroughpartof Once aneruptionhasoccurred, thereisatimedelayof to warnpeople. system sendsamessagetoloudspeakersontheskifield If bothoftheseconditionsaremet,themonitoring whether apressurewaveintheairhasbeengenerated. around themountainarethenassessedtodecide the surface,acousticdatafromanarrayofmicrophones whether theearthquakehasresultedinanexplosionat frequencies between1and10Hz.Inordertodetermine volcanic earthquakestendtohavepredominantlylow research onplatelockingandslowslipeventsisbeing such astheBoxingDay2004Indonesiantsunami.Our Subduction interfaceearthquakescancausetsunami, earthquakes inthefuture. the subductioninterfacefaultmayexperiencemajor and canhelpustobetterdefinewhichportionsof the stronglylockedregionofsubductioninterface, earthquake hazardbecausetheyoccurontheedgesof slip eventsarekeytoourunderstandingofsubduction slow slipeventsinvariouspartsoftheNorthIsland.Slow monitor them.Since2002wehavedetectedatleastten running GPSisthebestwaywehavetodetectand events cantakedaystoyearsoccur.Continuously subduction interfacefault.Unlikeearthquakes,slowslip result ofslipbetweentherocksontwosides ‘slow slipevents’.Similartoearthquakes,thesearethe detection ofanewlydiscoveredphenomenoncalled Continuously runningGPSsiteshavealsoenabledthe regions furthernorth. major (magnitude>8.0)subductionearthquakesthan that thelowerNorthIslandismorelikelytoexperience suggests This offshore. mostly occurs and weaker is much north, intheHawke’sBayandGisborneregions,locking beneath mostofthesouthernNorthIsland,whilefurther discovered thattheplateboundaryisstronglylocked network ofGPSsitesintheNorthIsland.Wehave have beenmeasuringthisdistortionusinganextensive above thelockedregions.ScientistsatGNSScience between theseearthquakes,theEarth’ssurfacedistorts allows thetwoplatestoslidepasteachother.Intime together, eventuallyleadingtoalargeearthquakewhich pressure buildswherethetectonicplatesarestuck locked totheoverridingAustralianPlate.Overtime, the NorthIslanditcansometimesbecome‘stuck’or When thePacificPlatedivesdownor‘subducts’beneath North IslandbythesubductingPacificPlate. our understandingoftheearthquakehazardposedto for morethanjustnavigation–ithasalsorevolutionised Global PositioningSystem(GPS)technologycanbeused Using GPStohelpunderstandNewZealand’s subductionearthquakehazards planning forcoastallanddevelopment. and theyshouldalsobeanimportantconsiderationin the futuredevelopmentoftsunamiwarningsystems, models areoneofmanyinputsthatwillberequiredfor interface earthquakesbeneaththeNorthIsland.Such New Zealandregionthatmightoccurduetosubduction used todevelopmodelsoftsunamiwaveheightsinthe Contact: [email protected] Funders: FoundationforResearch, Science&Technology Leader: GNSScience Contact: LauraWallace [email protected] Funders: FoundationforResearch, Science&Technology Leader: GNSScience Programme name:Geologicalhazards andsociety Programme name:Geologicalhazards and society

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Natural Hazards 2009 Research RiskScape – putting science into practice RiskScape is a natural hazards risk assessment and decision support tool being developed jointly by NIWA and GNS Science. Its purpose is to help predict the regional consequences, in both human and economic terms, of different natural hazards. These predictions can help authorities prepare for natural hazards, and respond quickly and efficiently to minimise disruption if a hazard does occur. RiskScape RiskScape is moving from single event scenarios to The table below is for a notional South Island town probabilistic risk assessment. This introduces parameters where volcano or tsunami risks are neglible, storm risk is relating how often events of a given magnitude occur modest, but flood and landslide risks are significant, and at specified locations. We will be able to compare risk long-term earthquake risks are high. to communities from different perils: this will provide a basis for risk managers to assess the effectiveness of Likely losses from natural hazards ($m) alternative mitigation measures – in other words, where it will be best to invest in mitigation to Frequent Rare Extremely Rare losses likely to loss with a 1/100 loss with a 1/1000 maximise community risk reduction. occur about every probability of probability of 10 years or so occurring in any occurring in any one It is tricky to compare the impact from different one year year hazards, some of which have truly regional impacts Earthquake 0 10 100 (e.g., earthquake and volcano) with others which Flood 0 20 50 have more intense impacts but less geographic Storm 1 5 15 spread (e.g., floods and storms). We are working on Volcano 0 0 0 assessing the likely cost of damage from each of the Tsunami 0 0 0 hazards relevant to a town or district, and presenting Landslide 1 30 50 the results in a user-friendly way.

Determining landslide hazard and risk

Rainfall-induced landslide model outputs after 100 mm of rainfall, Port Hills, Canterbury. The black dots on (a) indicate the modelled landslide sources; the yellow areas on (b) show areas affected by landslides.

We are also developing a probabilistic landslide risk Next we determine the risk to assets and people within model. This combines the probability of a rainfall- the grid by combining the landslide hazard probability induced landslide occurring at a site with information with inventory and vulnerability data for buildings, about assets and people likely to be affected. infrastructure, and people. Fortunately extensive historical data is available on landslide losses, particularly Our method first determines the probability that, for a for domestic housing in New Zealand (EQC claims given rainfall intensity, a landslide will start at a certain data), and fatalities (GNS Science databases), enabling point within a grid. This point depends on local geology a comparison of model outputs against actual data. This and slope. Second, we determine the probability that the enables us to verify the landslide risk model and establish ‘runout’ of such a landslide runs into an adjacent grid. levels of uncertainty associated with it. The model is being calibrated using historical landslide event datasets.

Using RiskScape to evaluate climate change impacts We are adapting RiskScape to determine losses and long-term impact periods for the studies are 2020, impacts from weather-related impacts associated 2050, and 2100 respectively. We are incorporating both with climate change as part of a FRST-funded project, future urban growth projections, and changes in the 'Reducing the impacts of climate change on the urban magnitude and frequency of natural hazards expected as and built environment'. a result of climate change. One case study considers the effect of flooding in and around the Heathcote Estuary, This involves case studies to demonstrate how climate Christchurch; the second looks at weather-induced change impacts can be incorporated into long-term Natural Hazards 2009 Natural Hazards landslide projections around Wellington City. hazard mitigation strategies. The short, medium, and 24 Examples ofRiskScapeoutputsforthisWestport 500-yearreturnfloodscenario: bearers including thesmallbusinesssector; thecorporate Economic Development, andMinistryof Health; risk as MCDEM,Ministryforthe Environment,Ministryfor including emergencymanagers andriskplannerssuch fit theirneeds.Potentialusers include:policymakers, with us,andsuggesthowwe candevelopRiskScapeto is notacaseof‘onesizefits all’.Weneeduserstowork software. Wehaveadiverse rangeofendusers,sothis a widevarietyofuserneedswiththecapability The RiskScapeteam’sbiggestchallengeistotryalign feedback onuserrequirements. of thetool,buildcommunicationlinks,andencourage about RiskScapetopotentialendusersraiseawareness a pilotgroupofusers.Wealsopresentedinformation In 2009,wereleasedthefirstRiskScapeprototypeto RiskScape –user-based development displaced peopleintheaftermathofanaturaldisaster– can estimatehousingdamageandthenumberof accommodation. UsingRiskScape,emergencyplanners affects aresidentialarea,peoplewillneedtemporary when thingsturnbad.Forexample,ifflooding the disaster,orthattheycanbeobtainedpromptly that resourcesandinformationareinplacepriorto Zealand; preparednessforfloodsisaboutensuring Floods arethemostcommonnaturalhazardinNew – areal-life scenario Using RiskScapeforfloodplanning Level ofbuildingdamage Extent anddepthofa500-yearreturnflood ´ 0 ´ Le 0 250 Inundati ve ! ! ! ! ( ! 250 l of of l 0 ,0 1,500 1,000 500 Collaps Se Mo Ligh Insign 0 ,0 1,500 1,000 500 > > 3.0 - 2.5 2.5 - 2.0 2.0 - 1.5 1.5 - 1.0 1.0 - 0.5 0.5 - 0.1 < bu Affe bui 3. 0. ve de on il t 0 0 1 re di lding damag lding ra cted if dept m m ng ican e te s m m m m m m

t h Me te Me rs te e rs or asrelativelevelofdamage. percentage damage(damageratio) $63 milliondollars-worth), (in thisscenario,approximately expressed eitherinfinancialterms habitable. Buildingdamagecanbe and howsoonitcouldbemade a buildingisinhabitableornot, important indeterminingwhether sustain insuchaflood,whichis damage affectedbuildingsmight RiskScape canestimatethelevelof Level of building damage businesses Employees offlooded Residents directly affected - commercial/industrial/other - residential buildings buildings damaged Total numberof people affected Buildings damagedand Westport of a 500-year return flood in The likely extent and depth a major(500-yearreturnperiod)floodinWestport. temporary accommodationandhousingafter to knowhowmanypeoplewouldrequireemergency disaster responseandcontingencyplanningwants In thisscenario,BullerDistrictCouncilisupdatingtheir communities. with populationdataandknowledgeaboutvulnerable in thiscaseaflood–bycombiningthescenario over thenextfewyears. valuable, andwillhelpguide RiskScapedevelopments The feedbackwehavereceived sofarisextremely proving veryhardtoobtain. databases fromutilitiescompanies.Someofthisdatais function optimally–forexample,geo-referenced We alsoneedcomplexdatasetsforRiskScapeto insurance companiesandfinancialinstitutions. water andpower);risktransfersectors,including sector; organisationsinchargeoflifelineutilities(e.g., Contact: [email protected] Funders: Foundation forResearch, Science &Technology Leader: NIWA &GNSScience(50:50jointventure) Programme name:TheRegionalRiskScapeModel 1900 950 675 750 75 temporary housingneeds. and henceestimatesdifferent building willbeuninhabitable, approximate lengthoftimea RiskScape calculatesthe Based onthelevelofdamage, displaced people Accommodation needed by Collapsed Severe damage Moderate damage Light damage Insignificant damage Level ofbuildingdamage housing. provision ofsomeorallthis develop contingencyplansforthe now decidewhetherornotto Buller DistrictCouncilcan (severalmonths) Temporary housing (up toonemonth) Temporary accommodation (up tooneweek) Emergency shelter needed Type ofaccommodation buildings Number of people Number of 1120 179 434 112 350 430 22 2

25

Natural Hazards 2009 RiskScape Communicating our science

Peer-reviewed articles 2009 and image processing techniques for mapping natural hazards Begg, J.G.; Mouslopoulou, V. (2009). Analysis of late Holocene faulting and disasters. Progress in physical geography 33(2): 183–207; within an active rift using lidar, Taupo Rift, New Zealand. Journal of doi:10.1177/0309133309339563. volcanology and geothermal research, Online first: doi:10.1016/j. Kench, P.S.; O’Callaghan, J. (2009). Seasonal variations in wave jvolgeores.2009.06.001. characteristics around a coral reef island, South Maalhosmadulu Clark, M.P.; Rupp, D.E.; Woods, R.A.; Tromp-van Meerveld, H.J.; atoll, Maldives. Marine geology 262(1–4): 116–129. Peters, N.E.; Freer, J. (2009). Consistency between hydrological Kilgour, G.N.; Manville, V.R.; Della-Pasqua, F.N.; Graettinger, A.; models and field observations: Linking processes at the Hodgson, K.A.; Jolly, G. (2009) The 25 September 2007 eruption hillslope scale to hydrological responses at the watershed scale. of Mount Ruapehu, New Zealand: directed ballistics, surtseyan Hydrological processes 23: 311–319. jets, and ice-slurry lahars. Journal of volcanology and geothermal Cole, S.E.; Cronin, S.J.; Sherburn, S.; Manville, V.R. (2009). Seismic research, Online first: doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2009.10. signals of snow-slurry lahars in motion: 25 September 2007, Mt Lane, E.M.; Walters, R.A.; Gillibrand, P.A.; Uddstrom, M.J. (2009). Ruapehu, New Zealand. Geophysical research letters 36: L09405, Operational forecasting of sea level height using an unstructured grid doi:10.1029/2009GL038030. ocean model. Ocean modelling 28 (1-3): 88–96. http://dx.doi.org/ Cole, J.W.; Spinks, K.D.; Deering, C.D.; Nairn, I.A.; Leonard, G.S. doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2008.11.004. (2009). Volcanic and structural evolution of the Okataina Volcanic Lindsay, J.; Marzocchi, W.; Jolly, G.; Constantinescu, R.; Selva, Centre: dominantly silicic volcanism associated with the Taupo Rift, J.; Sandri, L. (2009). Towards real-time eruption forecasting in New Zealand. Journal of volcanology and geothermal research, the Auckland Volcanic Field: application of BET_EF during the

Selected research publications Selected research Online first: doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2009.08.011. New Zealand national disaster exercise ‘Ruaumoko’. Bulletin of Cox, S.C.; Allen, S.K. (2009). Vampire rock avalanches of January 2008 volcanology, Online first: doi:10.1007/s00445-009-0311-9. and 2003, Southern Alps, New Zealand. Landslides, 6(2): 161–166; Little, T.A.; Van Dissen, R.J.; Schermer, E.; Carne, R. (2009). Late doi:10.1007/s10346-009-0149-4. Holocene surface ruptures on the southern Wairarapa fault, New Davies, T.R.H.; McSaveney, M.J. (2009). The role of rock Zealand: link between earthquakes and the uplifting of beach ridges fragmentation in the motion of large landslides. Engineering on a rocky coast. Lithosphere 1(1): 4–28; doi:10.1130/L7.1. geology 109(1/2): 67–79; doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2008.11.004. Massey, C.I.; Manville, V.R.; Hancox, G.T.; Keys, H.J.; Lawrence, de Terte, I.; Becker, J.S.; Stephens, C. (2009). An integrated model C.; McSaveney, M.J. (2009). Out-burst flood (lahar) triggered by for understanding and developing resilience in the face of adverse retrogressive landsliding, 18 March 2007 at Mt Ruapehu, New events. Journal of Pacific Rim psychology 3(1): 20–26. Zealand: a successful early warning. Landslides, Online first: Delahaye, E.J.; Townend, J.; Reyners, M.E.; Rogers, G. (2009). doi:10.1007/s10346-009-0180-5. Microseismicity but no tremor accompanying slow slip in the Mountjoy, J.J.; Barnes, P.B.; Pettinga, J.R. (2009). Morphostructure Hikurangi subduction zone, New Zealand. Earth and planetary and evolution of submarine canyons across an active margin: Cook science letters 277(1/2): 21–28; doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2008.09.038. Strait sector of the Hikurangi Margin, New Zealand. Marine geology Destegul, U.; Dellow, G.D.; Heron, D.W. (2009). A ground shaking 260(1-4): 45–68. amplification map for New Zealand. Bulletin of the New Zealand Mouslopoulou, V.; Nicol, A.; Little, T.A.; Begg, J.G. (2009). Society for Earthquake Engineering 42(2): 122–128. Palaeoearthquake surface rupture in a transition zone from strike-slip Dickson, M.E.; Bristow, C.S.; Hicks, D.M.; Jol, H.; Stapleton, J.; to oblique-normal slip and its implications to seismic hazard, North Todd, D. (2009). Beach volume on an eroding sand-gravel coast Island Fault System, New Zealand. p. 269–292 In: Reicherter, K.; determined using ground penetrating radar. Journal of coastal Michetti, A.M.; Silva, P.G. (eds.) Palaeoseismology: historical and research 25(5): 1149–1159. http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.2112/08- prehistorical records of earthquake ground effects for seismic hazard 1137.1. assessment. Geological Society special publication 316, London: Geological Society. Fagereng, A.; Ellis, S.M. (2009). On factors controlling the depth of interseismic coupling on the Hikurangi subduction interface, New Murray, A.B.; Lazarus, E.; Ashton, A.; Baas, A.; Coco, G.; Coulthard, Zealand. Earth and planetary science letters 278(1/2): 120–130; T.; Fonstad, M.; Haff, P.; McNamara, D.; Paola, C.; Pelletier, J.; doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2008.11.033. Reinhardt, L. (2009). Geomorphology, complexity, and the emerging science of the Earth’s surface. Geomorphology 103(3): 496–505. Gallop, S.L.; Bryan, K.R.; Coco, G. (2009). Video observations of rip currents on an embayed beach. Journal of coastal research special Page, M.J.; Trustrum, N.A.; Orpin, A.R.; Carter, L.; Gomez, B.; issue 56: 49–53; http://dx.doi.org/doi:10. Cochran, U.A.; Mildenhall, D.C.; Rogers, K.M.; Brackley, H.L.; Palmer, A.S.; Northcote, L. (2009). Storm frequency and magnitude Garside, R.; Johnston, D.M.; Saunders, W.S.A.; Leonard, G.S. (2009). in response to Holocene climate variability, Lake Tutira, north- Planning for tsunami evacuations: the case of the Marine Education eastern New Zealand. Marine geology, Online first: doi:10.1016/j. Centre, Wellington, New Zealand. Australian journal of emergency margeo.2009.10.019. management 24(3): 28–31. Paquet, F.; Proust, J.N.; Barnes, P.B.; Pettinga, J.R. (2009). Inner- Goff, J.R.; Lane, E.M.; Arnold, J. (2009). The tsunami geomorphology forearc sequence architecture in response to climatic and tectonic of coastal dunes. Natural hazards and earth system sciences 9(3): forcing since 150 ka: Hawke’s Bay, New Zealand. Journal of 847–854. sedimentary research 79(3): 97–124. Griffiths, G.A.; Pearson, C.P.; McKercher, A.I. (2009). Climate Peltier, A.; Hurst, A.W.; Scott, B.J.; Cayol, V. (2009). Structures variability and the design flood problem. Journal of hydrology (NZ) involved in the vertical deformation at Lake Taupo (New Zealand) 48(1): 29–38. between 1979 and 2007: new insights from numerical modelling. Hendrikx, J.; Birkeland, K.; Clark, M.P. (2009). Assessing changes Journal of volcanology and geothermal research 181(3/4): 173–184; in the spatial variability of the snowpack fracture propagation doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2009.01.017. propensity over time. Cold regions science and technology 56(2-3): Power, W.L.; Downes, G.L. (2009). Tsunami hazard assessment. p. 276- 152–160; http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1016/j.coldregions.2008.12.001. 306 In: Connor, C.B.; Chapman, N.A.; Connor, L.J. (eds.) Volcanic Hill, G.J.; Caldwell, T.G.; Heise, W.; Chertkoff, D.G.; Bibby, H.M.; and tectonic hazard assessment for nuclear facilities. Cambridge Burgess, M.K.; Cull, J.P.; Cas, R.A.F. (2009). Distribution of University Press, Cambridge. melt beneath Mount St Helens and Mount Adams inferred Renwick, J.A.; Mullan, A.B.; Porteous, A. (2009). Statistical from magnetotelluric data. Nature geoscience 2(11): 785–789; downscaling of New Zealand climate. Weather and climate 29: doi:10.1038/NGEO661. 24–44. Joyce, K.E.; Belliss, S.E.; Samsonov, S.; McNeill, S.J.; Glassey, P.J. (2009). A review of the status of satellite remote sensing Natural Hazards 2009 Natural Hazards

26 Renwick, J.A.; Mullan, A.B.; Thompson, C.S.; Porteous, A. (2009). Downscaling 15-day ensemble weather forecasts and extension to short-term climate outlooks. Weather and climate 29: 45–69. Reyners, M.E.; Eberhart-Phillips, D. (2009). Small earthquakes provide insight into plate coupling and fluid distribution in the Hikurangi subduction zone, New Zealand. Earth and planetary Selected popular articles science letters 282: 299–305; doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2009.03.034. Rhoades, D.A.; Gerstenberger, M.C. (2009) Mixture models Bell, R.G. (2009). Scientific data confirms tsunami public for improved short-term earthquake forecasting. Bulletin messages. Ministry of Civil Defence & Emergency of the Seismological Society of America 99(2A): 636–646; Management E-Bulletin, October 2009, Wellington. doi:10.1785/0120080063. Clark, M.; Uddstrom, M. (2009). Flood forecasting: watching Ristau, J. (2009). Comparison of magnitude estimates for New Zealand the water. New Zealand local government 45(6): 16–17. earthquakes: moment magnitude, local magnitude, and teleseismic body-wave magnitude. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of Daly, M.; Becker, J.S.; Parkes, B.; Johnston, D.M.; Paton, America 99(3): 1841–1852; doi:10.1785/0120080237. D. (2009). Defining and measuring community resilience Ronan, K.R.; Crellin, K.; Johnston, D.M. (2009). Correlates of hazards to natural disasters: a case study from Auckland. Tephra education for youth: a replication study. Natural hazards, Online 22: 15–20. first: doi:10.1007/s11069-009-9444-6. Dellow, G.D.; Allen, S.; Cox, S.C.; Ferris, B.G.; Hancox, G.T.;

Saunders, W.S.A.; Glassey, P.J. (2009). Taking a risk-based approach McColl, S.; Nelis, S.; Palmer, N.G.; Perrin, N.D. (2009). Selected popular articles for landslide planning: an outline of the New Zealand landslide Landslides in 2008. New Zealand geomechanics news 77: guidelines. Australian journal of emergency management 24(1): 57–60. 32–38. Seebeck, H.; Nicol, A.; Stern, T.A.; Bibby, H.M.; Stagpoole, V.M. Hendrikx, J.; Birkeland, K. (2009). Spatial variability and the (2009). Fault controls on the geometry and location of the Extended Column Test (ECT): results from Mt Hutt. The Okataina Caldera, Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand. Journal of Crystal Ball 18(3): 17–20. New Zealand Mountain Safety volcanology and geothermal research, Online first: doi:10.1016/j. Council avalanche newsletter, December 2009, Wellington. jvolgeores.2009.04.011. Jolly, A.D. (ed.) (2009). Ruapehu Day: a workshop to discuss Stirling, M.W.; Berryman, K.R.; Wallace, L.M.; Litchfield, N.J.; scientific advances at Ruapehu volcano, Wairakei Beavan, R.J.; Smith, W.D. (2009). Multi-disciplinary probabilistic Research Centre, 15 October 2008: abstracts. Lower Hutt: tectonic hazard analysis. p. 257–275 In: Connor, C.B.; Chapman, GNS Science. GNS Science miscellaneous series 20. 9 p. N.A.; Connor, L.J. (eds.) Volcanic and tectonic hazard assessment Lewthwaite, E.; Salinger, J. (2009). Access to Pacific Islands for nuclear facilities. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. meteorological data in the New Zealand National Climate Tait, A.; Liley, B. (2009). Interpolation of daily solar radiation for New Database. The Island Climate Update 99: 6. Zealand using a satellite data-derived cloud cover surface. Weather and climate 29: 70–88. Mortimer, N.; Te Hikoi Southern Journey Heritage Museum Titzschkau, T.; Savage, M.; Hurst, A.W. (2009) Changes in attenuation (2009). A guide to the geology of the Riverton-Aparima related to eruptions of Mt Ruapehu Volcano, New Zealand. Journal district. Lower Hutt: GNS Science. GNS Science of volcanology and geothermal research, Online first: doi:10.1016/j. miscellaneous series 26. Brochure. jvolgeores.2009.07.012. Petersen, T.; Ristau, J.; Beavan, R.J.; Denys, P.; Denham, Van Dissen, R.J.; Nicol, A. (2009). Mid-Late Holocene paleoseismicity M.; Field, B.J.; Holden, C.; McCaffrey, R.; Palmer, N.G.; of the eastern Clarence Fault, Marlborough, New Zealand. New Reyners, M.E.; Samsonov, S.; GeoNet team (2009). Zealand journal of geology and geophysics 52(3): 195–208. The Mw 6.7 George Sound earthquake of October 15, van Gaalen, J.F.; Kruse, S.E.; Burroughs, S.M.; Coco, G. (2009). 2007: response and preliminary results. Bulletin of the Time-Frequency Methods for Characterizing Cuspate Landforms in New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering 42(2): Lidar Data, Journal of coastal research 25(5): 1143–1148. 129–141. Wallace, L.M.; Barnes, P.M.; Reyners, M. (2009). Characterizing the Renwick, J.A.; Srinivasan, M.; Ibbitt, R.P.; Mullan, A.B. seismogenic zone of a major plate boundary subduction thrust: (2008). Climate prediction, water resources, and irrigation Hikurangi Margin, New Zealand. Geochemistry, geophysics, in Canterbury, New Zealand: climate change and the geosystems 10: Q10006. future of Waimakariri Irrigation Scheme. APEC Climate Wallace, L.M.; Reyners, M.E.; Cochran, U.A.; Bannister, S.C.; Center APCC newsletter 4(2) (June 2009): 3–4. Barnes, P.M.; Berryman, K.R.; Downes, G.L.; Eberhart-Phillips, D.; Fagereng, A.; Ellis, S.M.; Nicol, A.; McCaffrey, R.; Beavan, Reyners, M.E. (2009). Large subduction thrust earthquake R.J.; Henrys, S.A.; Sutherland, R.; Barker, D.H.N.; Litchfield, shakes southern New Zealand. Eos 90(33): 282. N.J.; Townend, J.; Robinson, R.; Bell, R.E.; Wilson, K.J.; Rowe, G.; Bell, R.G. (2009). National Report of New Zealand: Power, W.L. (2009). Characterizing the seismogenic zone of a sea-level monitoring. Prepared for GLOSS Experts XI major plate boundary subduction thrust: Hikurangi Margin, New Meeting, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, Zealand. Geochemistry, geophysics, geosystems 10(10): Q10006, Paris, May 2009. doi:10.1029/2009GC002610. Saunders, W.S.A.; Glavovic, B. (2009) Opportunities for Wannamaker, P.E.; Caldwell, T.G.; Jiracek, G.R.; Maris, V.; Hill, natural hazard risk reduction: perspectives from the state, G.J.; Ogawa, Y.; Bibby, H.M.; Bennie, S.L.; Heise, W. (2009). market, and civil society. Tephra 22: 42–48. Fluid and deformation regime of an advancing subduction system at Marlborough, New Zealand. Nature 460(7256): 733–737; Wright, K.C.; Becker, J.S.; Saunders, W.S.A. (2009). Pre- doi:10.1038/nature08204. event recovery planning for natural hazards. Tephra 22: Woods, R.A. (2009). Analytical Model of Seasonal Climate Impacts 49–54. on Snow Hydrology: Continuous Snowpacks. Advances in water resources, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2009.06.011. Zhao, J.X.; Rhoades, D.A.; McVerry, G.H.; Somerville, P.G. (2009). Inhibition of very strong ground motion in response spectral attenuation models and effects of site class and tectonic category. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 99(3): 1487–1501; doi:10.1785/0120080279. Natural Hazards 2009 Natural Hazards

27 Applying our science Selected hazard studies

National/multi-regional Auckland Buergelt, P.T.; Paton, D.; Johnston, D.M. (2009). Factors and processes Griffiths, G.; Mullan, B.; Clark, A.; Sturman, J.; Fortuin, S.; de Vos, R. (2009). influencing individual and community preparedness for a pandemic Manukau City – Towards 2060: Basis Climate and Energy Information. outbreak in New Zealand. Lower Hutt: GNS Science. GNS Science report NIWA Client Report AKL2009-042. 2009/09. 16 p. Clark, A.; Sturman, J. (2009). Recent trends in frost risk for New Zealand. NIWA Client Report WLG2009-16. Central North Island Cousins, W.J.; Smith, W.D.; King, A.B.; Uma, S.R.; Bradley, B.; Perrin, N.D. Cole-Baker, J.; Britten, K.; Mazot, A. (2009). Soil gas and ground temperature (2009). Earthquake risk assessment for selected District Health Boards. survey Lake House Tavern site, 41–45 Lake Road, Ohinemutu. GNS GNS Science consultancy report 2009/144. 30 p. Science consultancy report 2009/349. 19 p. Gerstenberger, M.C.; Rhoades, D.A.; Stirling, M.W.; Brownrigg, R.; Graham, D.J.; Scott, B.J. (2009). Rotorua geothermal system: measurements Christophersen, A. (2009). Continued development of the New Zealand and observations, May 2009. GNS Science consultancy report Earthquake Forecast Testing Centre. GNS Science consultancy report 2009/143LR. 6 p. 2009/182. 42 p. Jolly, A.D.; Sherburn, S. (2009). EQC-TVH 2-8 scaling law and repeat times for Hancox, G.T.; Nelis, S. (2009). Landslides caused by the June-August 2008 Selected hazard studies Selected hazard Ruapehu volcanic events. GNS Science consultancy report 2009/20. 14 p. rainfall in Auckland and Wellington, New Zealand. Lower Hutt: GNS Kilgour, G.N.; Della-Pasqua, F.N.; Jolly, G. (2009). Magma ascent during Science. GNS Science report 2009/04. 25 p. eruptions at Mt Ngauruhoe: insights from xenolith fluid inclusions. GNS Hendrikx, J. (2009). Snow storm data collection: Mobilisation in August 2008. Science consultancy report 2009/168. 16 p. NIWA Client Report CHC2009-048. 13 p. Massey, C.I.; Beetham, R.D.; Severne, C.; Archibald, G.; Hancox, G.T.; Hendrikx, J.; Hreinsson, E.Ö.; Mullan, A.B. (2009). Projected climate data for Power W.L. (2009). Field investigations at Waihi Landslide, Taupo, 30 June three future scenarios for 2030-2049 for use in lamb survival modelling. & 1 July 2009. Lower Hutt: GNS Science. GNS Science report 2009/34. NIWA Client Report CHC2009-097. 23p. Johnston, D.M.; Dolan, L.; Saunders, W.S.A.; van Schalkwyk, R.; Killeen, Miller, C.A.; Archibald, G.; Palmer, N.G. (2009). Repeat Mt Ruapehu central C.; Cousins, W.J.; Glavovic, B.; Brown, C.; McIntyre, I. (2009). Disposal crater topographic survey, April 2009. GNS Science consultancy report of debris following urban earthquakes: guiding the development of 2009/120. 7 p. + CD. comprehensive pre-event plans. Lower Hutt: GNS Science. GNS Science Sherburn, S.; Townend, J.; Arnold, R.; Woods, L. (2009). EQC Project 08/550: report 2009/33. 27 p. establishing a spatiotemporal benchmark for ongoing crustal stress King, A.B.; Bell, R.; Heron, D.W.; Matcham, I.; Schmidt, J.; Cousins, W.J.; monitoring in the southern Taupo Volcanic Zone. GNS Science consultancy Reese, S.; Wilson, T.; Johnston, D.M.; Henderson, R.; Smart, G.; Goff, report 2009/185. 38 p. J.; Reid, S.; Turner, R.; Wright, K.C.; Smith, W.D. (2009). RiskScape Project: 2004–2008. GNS Science consultancy report 2009/247. 153 p. Bay of Plenty Leonard, G.S.; Power, W.L.; Lukovic, B.; Smith, W.D.; Langridge, R.M.; Johnston, D.M.; Downes, G.L. (2009). Interim tsunami evacuation Miller, C.A.; Werner, C. (2009). Validation of wind measurements for use in a planning zone boundary mapping for the Wellington and Horizons regions scanning DOAS system at White Island, New Zealand. Lower Hutt: GNS defined by a GIS-calculated attenuation rule. Lower Hutt: GNS Science. Science. GNS Science report 2009/12. 16 p. GNS Science report 2008/30. 18 p. Litchfield, N.J.; Smith, W.D.; Berryman, K.R. (2009). Return times for high Gisborne levels of ground-shaking (≥ MM7) in the Waipaoa and Waitaki River Wang, X.; Prasetya, G.; Power, W.L.; Lukovic, B.; Brackley, H.L.; Berryman, catchments. Lower Hutt: GNS Science. GNS Science report 2009/03. 87 p. K.R. (2009). Gisborne District Council tsunami inundation study. GNS Massey, C.I. (2009). Assessment of landslide and other erosion hazards along Science consultancy report 2009/233. 117 p. the natural gas pipeline alignment: Palmerston North to Hastings. GNS Science consultancy report 2009/14. 19 p. Waikato Rhoades, D.A.; Somerville, P.G.; Dimer de Oliveira, F.; Thio, H.K. (2009). Woods, R.A.; Schmidt, J.; Collins, D. (2009). Estimating the potential effect of Enhancement of the EEPAS model for long-range earthquake forecasting. land use change on Waikato tributary floods – TopNet model development. GNS Science consultancy report 2009/153. 41 p. NIWA Client Report CHC2009-155. 70 p. Robinson, R.; Rhoades, D.A.; Gerstenberger, M.C. (2009). Understanding a promising earthquake forecasting tool by computer modelling of seismicity. Hawke’s Bay GNS Science consultancy report 2009/342. 24 p. Beavan, R.J.; Litchfield, N.J. (2009). Sea level rise projections adjusted for Smith, W.D.; Cousins, W.J. (2009). Potential losses from earthquakes for vertical tectonic land movement along the Hawke’s Bay coastline. GNS buildings owned by Housing New Zealand Corporation. GNS Science Science consultancy report 2009/128. 37 p. consultancy report 2009/113. 28 p. Cousins, W.J. (2009). RiskScape: development of a default assets model for Tait, A.; Mullan, B. (2009). Climate change and emission scenarios literature Hawke’s Bay. Lower Hutt: GNS Science. GNS Science report 2009/50. 29 review. NIWA Client Report WLG2009-66. p. Uma, S.R.; King, A.B.; Holden, T.J.; Bell, D.K. (2009). Acceptable inter-storey Gorman, R.M.; Gillibrand, P.A.; Stephens, S.A. et al. (2009). Inundation due to drift limits for buildings at ultimate limit states. GNS Science consultancy combined storm surge, tides and waves in Hawke Bay. NIWA Client Report report 2009/16. 33 p. HAM2009-020. Willsman, A.P.; Chinn, T.; Hendrikx, J.; et al. (2009). Glacier snowline survey 2009. NIWA Client Report CHC2009-152. Wilson, T.M.; Stewart, C.; Cole, J.W.; Johnston, D.M.; Cronin, S.J. (2009). Taranaki Vulnerability of farm water supplies to volcanic ash. Lower Hutt: GNS Perrin, N.D. (2009). Assessment of landslide and other erosion hazards along Science. GNS Science report 2009/01. 113 p. the Kapuni and Maui pipeline alignments: Urenui to Otorohanga. GNS Woods, R.A.; Mullan, A.B.; Smart, G.M.; Rouse, H.; Hollis, M.; McKerchar, Science consultancy report 2009/157. 29 p. A.I.; Ibbitt, R.P.; Dean, S.; Collins, D. (2009). Tools for estimating the Sherburn, S.; Scott, B.J.; Miller, C.A. (2009). Taranaki seismicity, July 2008 to effects of climate change on flood flow. NIWA Client Report CHC2008-110. June 2009. GNS Science consultancy report 2009/205. 16 p. + CD. 93 p. Zhang, J.; McVerry, G.H. (2009). Accelerogram-scaling procedures for near- Manawatu-Wanganui fault motions. GNS Science consultancy report 2009/26. 64 p. Massey, C.I.; McSaveney, M.J.; Williams, K. (2009). The West Taihape landslide: review of slope stability hazards. GNS Science consultancy Northland report 2009/142. McKerchar, A.I.; Ibbitt, R.P. (2009). Review of flooding in the Kerikeri area. NIWA Client Report CHC2009-012. Natural Hazards 2009 Natural Hazards

28 ett Mead, NZPA)

Wellington West Coast Selected hazard studies Selected hazard Cousins, W.J.; Hancox, G.T.; Perrin, N.D.; Lukovic, B.; King, A.B.; Smith, Coomer, M.A.; Johnston, D.M.; Wilson, T.; Becker, J.S.; Orchiston, C.; W.D. (2009). Post-earthquake restoration of the Wellington area bulk water Page, S. (2009). West Coast ShakeOut exercise September 18th 2009: supply. GNS Science consultancy report 2009/11. 62 p. observation of the exercise on the West Coast, South Island, New Zealand. Langridge, R.M.; Van Dissen, R.J.; Villamor, P.; Little, T.A. (2009). It’s Our Lower Hutt: GNS Science. GNS Science report 2009/65. 10 p. Fault: Wellington Fault paleo-earthquake investigations: final report. GNS McKerchar, A.I. (2009). Flow hydrology of the Amethyst River. NIWA Client Science consultancy report 2008/344. 45 p. Report CHC2009-001.

Heavy snowfall at Matawai, East Cape, 4 October 2009. (Photo: Br McKerchar, A.I. (2009). Review of flood hydrology for the Waikanae and Otaki McKerchar, A.I.; Griffiths G.A. (2009). Review of the Hokitika River flood Rivers. NIWA Client Report CHC2008-158. frequency at Kaniere Bridge. NIWA Client Report CHC2009-185. Revell, M. (2009). Expected sea level variation at Queens Wharf sites. NIWA Client Report WLG2009-28. Otago Robinson, R.; Van Dissen, R.J.; Litchfield, N.J. (2009). It’s Our Fault: synthetic Barrell, D.J.A.; Cox, S.C.; Greene, S.; Townsend, D. (2009). Otago Alluvial seismicity of the Wellington region: final report. GNS Science consultancy Fans Project: supplementary maps and information on fans in selected report 2009/192. 36 p. areas of Otago. GNS Science consultancy report 2009/052. Stephens, S.; Reeve, G.; Bell, R. (2009). Modelling of the 2 February 1936 Stirling, M.W.; Zondervan, A.; Norris, R.; Ninis, D. (2009). Age constraints storm tide in Wellington harbour. NIWA Client Report HAM2009-014. on unstable landforms at a near-fault site in Central Otago, New Zealand: Thompson, C.; Sansom, J.; Sturman, J.; et al. (2009). High intensity rainfall groundwork for validation of seismic hazard models. GNS Science and potential impacts of climate change in the Waiohine Catchment. NIWA consultancy report 2009/74. 16 p. Client Report WLG2009-5. Thomas, J.S.; Cox, S.C. (2009). 42 years evolution of Slip Stream landslide Zhao, J.X.; McVerry, G.H. (2009). Recommended spectra for SH2/SH58 and fan, Dart River, New Zealand. Lower Hutt: GNS Science. GNS Science interchange at Haywards. GNS Science consultancy report 2009/303. 23 p. report 2009/43. 32 p. Nelson / Marlborough & Tasman Southland Gorman, R. (2009). Estimated wave climate in Waitata Reach, Marlborough Wilson, K.J.; Litchfield, N.J.; Turnbull, I.M. (2009). Coastal deformation Sounds. NIWA Client Report HAM2009-07. and tsunami deposit observations following the July 15, 2009, Mw 7.8 Stephens, S.; Bell, R.G. (2009). Review of Nelson City minimum ground level Dusky Sound earthquake. Lower Hutt: GNS Science. GNS Science report requirements in relation to coastal inundation and sea-level rise. NIWA 2009/46. 61 p. Client Report HAM2009-124. International Canterbury Becker, J.S. (2009). Observations from the Great Southern California Barrell, D.J.A.; Strong, D.T. (2009). General distribution and characteristics Earthquake ShakeOut. Lower Hutt: GNS Science. GNS Science report of active faults and folds in the Ashburton district, mid-Canterbury. GNS 2009/31. 20 p. Science consultancy report 2009/227; Environment Canterbury report Johnston, D.M.; Leonard, G.S.; Becker, J.S.; Saunders, W.S.A.; Gowan, M.E. R09/72. 17 p. + CD. (2009) Evaluating warning and disaster response capacity in the tourism Bell, R.G. (2009). Sumner Head Sea-level Station: Annual Report for 2008. sector in Long Beach and Ocean Shores, Washington, USA. Lower Hutt: NIWA Client Report HAM2009-147, prepared for Environment Canterbury. GNS Science. GNS Science report 2009/10. 9 p. 28 p. Mullan, B.; Carey-Smith, T.; Clark, A.; Dean, S.; Yang, E.; Wratt, D.; Sturman, Griffiths G.A.; Pearson, C.P.; McKerchar, A.I. (2009). Review of frequency of J. (2009). Study on the effects and impacts of global climate change on high intensity rainfalls in Christchurch. NIWA Client Report CHC2009-139. Singapore: Temperature and Wind, Progress Report – Quarter 8, June Hicks, D.M.; Henderson, R.D.; Diettrich, J. (2009). Effects of MTAD on flood 2009, 169 p. flows, bedload transport, bed mobility, and channel morphology in the Prasetya, G.; Power, W.L.; Berryman, K.R. (2009). History of tsunamigenic Lower Waiau River. NIWA Client Report CHC2008-060. events and tsunami observations for the San Juan-Marcona region. GNS Tait, A. (2009). Climate conditions from January to June 2006 in the region of Science consultancy report 2009/134LR. 17 p. “Annandale” located near Waiau, North Canterbury. NIWA Client Report Scott, B.J.; Jolly, A.D. (2009). Response to Gaua eruptive activity, Vanuatu, 24 WLG2009-37. November - 2 December 2009. GNS Science consultancy report 2009/346. Walsh, J.M. (2009). Steep Head directional wave buoy annual report - January 18 p. 2006 to December 2008. NIWA Client Report CHC2009-028. Trustrum, N.A.; Stirling, M.W.; Gledhill, K.R.; Webb, T.H.; Berryman, K.R.; Walsh, J.M. (2009). Variation 43 - Heathcote River Flood Modelling Study. King, A.B.; Power, W.L.; Lukovic, B.; Prasetya, G.; Xiaoming, W.; NIWA Client Report CHC2009-039. Destegul, U.; Wallace, L.M.; Cousins, W.J.; Smith, W.D.; Heron, D.W. Wilson, T.M.; Johnston, D.M.; Paton, D.; Houghton, R. (2009). Impacts (2009). Asia Development Assistance Facility (ADAF) tsunami hazard, risk and emergency response to the 12 June 2006 South Island snowstorm: and preparedness for Vietnam: reports 1-8. GNS Science consultancy tabulated results of a survey of responding organisations in the Canterbury report 2009/184. region. Lower Hutt: GNS Science. GNS Science report 2008/40. 63 p. Wilson, K.J.; Power, W.L.; Nishimura, Y.; ‘Atelea Kautoke, R. et al. (in press). Post-tsunami survey of Niuatoputapu Island, Tonga, following the 29th September, 2009, South Pacific tsunami. Lower Hutt: GNS Science. GNS Science report 2009/71.

Most of the reports here are prepared under contract for commercial clients. Contact the authors for more details of report availability. Natural Hazards 2009 Natural Hazards

29 Contributors

Dr Jordy Hendrikx Wendy Saunders Dr Rob Bell Dr Kelvin Berryman Andrew King Chris Massey

Dr Murray Poulter Dr Stefan Reese Dr Richard Turner Dr Michael Uddstrom Dr Shona van Zijll de Jong Dr Terry Webb Dr Jordy Hendrikx Andrew King Richard Turner Snow & Ice Research Scientist, NIWA Section Manager, Active Landscapes, GNS Scientist, Mesoscale Meteorology, NIWA Jordy has a background in snow avalanche Science, and Co-Leader, RiskScape New Richard has recently worked on damage surveys forecasting and hazard management. He is in Zealand joint venture and modelling of the 2007 Taranaki tornadoes, charge of the design and implementation of Andrew manages the Geohazards Solutions the modelling of local terrain effects on surface NIWA’s snow and ice monitoring network, and is section of GNS Science. He is a civil engineer winds, calculating extreme wind estimates for also leading a project on the impacts of climate with specialist knowledge in structural power pylons, creating synthetic wind datasets change on snow, ice, and river flows in New engineering, especially the response of the for wind-farms, and the modelling of the aerial Zealand. Jordy coordinated the production of built environment to earthquakes. Andrew dispersal of foot-and-mouth virus. this annual review in conjunction with Wendy coordinates the RiskScape research programme Dr Michael Uddstrom Saunders. together with Stefan Reese. Principal Scientist, Environmental Forecasting, Wendy Saunders Chris Massey and Programme Leader, Reducing the Impact of Natural Hazards Planner, GNS Science Engineering Geologist, GNS Science Weather-Related Hazards, NIWA Wendy is involved in researching policy and Chris’s research and professional background Michael’s research interest is in the use of planning for natural hazard risk reduction, which is in Engineering Geology. Chris has 14 years satellite observations to improve the accuracy has included compiling landslide guidelines of research and consultancy experience in the of weather forecasts, and hence the entire for consent and policy planners. Wendy investigation and analysis of complex geological downstream modelling system. coordinated the production of this annual review and geotechnical data, particularly in the area Dr Shona van Zijll de Jong in conjunction with Jordy Hendrikx. of geohazard assessments for landslides. He Environmental economist, NIWA Dr Rob Bell has applied these skills to hazard assessments, Shona specialises in macro- and micro- Principal Scientist, Natural Hazards, NIWA highway, town planning, oil and pipeline and economic analysis of social, cultural, and Rob is a Principal Scientist for natural hazards mining engineering projects in Bhutan, Nepal, environmental impact of natural hazards and research and consultancy work. His specialities Ethiopia, Russia (Sakhalin Island), Tajikistan, climate change. Shona was part of the NIWA/ are coastal hazards and the effect of climate Hong Kong, Australia, Europe, UK, and New GNS research team which was deployed change. Rob is part of the management group Zealand. to affected Pacific islands following the 29 for NIWA’s centres on Coasts and Natural Dr Murray Poulter September tsunami. She led the socio-economic Hazards and coordinates a national network of Chief Scientist, Atmosphere, Natural Hazards, & impact assessment team in Samoa, specialising sea-level gauges. Energy, NIWA in intangible and indirect losses. Dr Kelvin Berryman Murray leads NIWA’s atmosphere research and Dr Terry Webb Natural Hazards Research Platform Manager, consulting portfolio, which includes natural General Manager, Natural Hazards, GNS GNS Science hazards, atmospheric pollutants, and renewable Science Kelvin leads the new Natural Hazards Research energy. Within the natural hazards area this Terry manages the Natural Hazards Group at Platform, which is hosted by GNS Science. covers weather, flooding, and coastal-related GNS Science, and is thus responsible for the Kelvin’s role includes managing funding, hazards, the impact of climate change on Group’s research and consultancy services in research priorities, and reporting among these hazards, and development of forecasting the areas of geological hazards (earthquakes, GNS Science; NIWA; Auckland, Canterbury systems. volcanoes, landslides, and tsunami) and and Massey universities; and Opus (as Dr Stefan Reese geological mapping. Management of the EQC- platform partners). Kelvin leads the Platform Risk Engineer, NIWA, and Co-leader, RiskScape funded GeoNet project also comes within his Management Group, and liaises with the New Zealand joint venture remit. Strategic Advisory Group, and the Foundation Stefan specialises in the physical and socio- for Research, Science and Technology. economic impacts of different types of hazards. Other research interests are climate change impacts, social vulnerability, risk perception, and planning for natural hazard risk reduction. Stefan was part of the NIWA/GNS research team which was deployed to affected Pacific islands following the 29 September tsunami. He coordinates the RiskScape research programme together with Andrew King. Natural Hazards 2009 Natural Hazards

30 Train derailed by landslide, Upper Hutt, 25 July 2009. (Photo: Andrew Labett, NZPA) Production was by Harriet Palmer (NIWA), and Kitty Higbee and Eileen McSaveney (GNS Science). (EQC), and Richard Smith (MCDEM). We are also grateful for contributions from our external collaborators, including: John Lucas (Insurance Council), Hugh Cowan Grant Dellow,DrGillJolly,MargaretLow,LauraWallace(GNSScience). Gillibrand, Dr Richard Gorman, Kathryn Julian, Kevin McGill, Dr Alistair McKerchar, Alan Porteous, James Sturman (NIWA); and A number ofotherpeopleprovidedvaluablecontributionstoNaturalHazards2009,including:DrDanielCollins,Philip Publication ofNaturalHazards2009wasfundedbyNIWAandGNSScience. Acknowledgments Management Conference 2010 4th AustralasianHazards www.hazards-education.org/ahmc/2010 Contact: [email protected] scientists. managers, naturalhazards researchers and planners, riskassessors,assetandutility Our target audienceis:emergency managers, effective riskmanagement,including: the integrationofhazard informationinto The conference willprovide aforumtodiscuss Optional workshops10&13August2010 11–12 August2010 Te Papa,Wellington, NewZealand

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Photo: Wellington fault - likely fault rupture hazard zone, GNS Science Photo Library 31

Natural Hazards 2009 The Natural Hazards Centre The Natural Hazards Centre was established in 2002 by NIWA and GNS Science, New Zealand’s leading hazard Crown Research Institutes. Its role is to provide New Zealanders with a single point of contact for the latest research, resources, and scientific expertise. Its strength lies in multidisciplinary skills, all-hazard coverage, and resources for delivering world-class research to emergency and resource managers, the science community, planners, and policy makers. www.naturalhazards.net.nz

A joint publication by NIWA and GNS Science

Communications & Marketing, NIWA Communications Manager, GNS Science Private Bag 14901, Kilbirnie, Wellington 6241 PO Box 30368, Lower Hutt 5040 NIWA Information Series No. 74 GNS Science Miscellaneous Series 29 ISSN 1174-264X ISSN 1177-2441 www.niwa.co.nz www.gns.cri.nz

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Cover: Children walk amidst the ruins of the tsunami-devastated village of Tula, American Samoa. Back cover: The Litia Sini Beach Resort lies in ruins in the tsunami-devastated village of Lalomanu, Samoa. Photos: Torsten Blackwood/AFP/Getty Images