ISSUE BRIEF 11.04.19 Unilateral Annexation by : A Hazardous Voyage

Gilead Sher, Isaac and Mildred Brochstein Fellow in Peace and Security in Honor of Daniel Cohen, Intern, Center for the Middle East

The two-state-for-two-people vision for two distinct political entities. Among other Israel and has long been proposed things, it suggests drawing a provisional as a partition of the area between the border that would encompass the large River and the Mediterranean Sea blocks of settlements comprising ~75% of into two nation-states: Israel, on roughly settlers without annexing any West Bank 78% of the land, and a Palestinian state on territory until a final agreement is attained. the West Bank and , comprising Rather than moving toward a two- 22% of the land.1 Today, this vision seems state vision, however, recent legislative increasingly distant, as the way forward efforts and public discourse in Israel have has become muddled by incremental de increasingly trended toward unilateral facto Israeli annexation in the West Bank, annexation of West Bank territory. West outbreaks of Palestinian terror and violence, Bank annexation threatens a dangerous and a complete breakdown of trust on both Israeli decline into a disastrous reality of one sides. Yet a two-state reality is essential for state, which will either comprise a non- attaining a democratic Jewish national home Jewish majority or will be non-democratic in Eretz Yisrael2 within secure and recognized and lacking equality between its inhabitants; boundaries. The Zionist enterprise never it would perpetually be on the verge of civil endeavored to rule over another people, let war. Such a process will have pernicious alone for more than half a century. and lasting consequences, leading Israel to More than ever, drawing a border an unprecedented crisis of delegitimization, The Zionist enterprise between two nation-states, even a enhanced demonization, and isolation. never endeavored provisional one, is an urgent priority— Annexation could come in many forms: especially for preserving the progress of annexing only the largest “consensus” to rule over another the negotiations. The Oslo process settlement blocs (Gush Etzion, Ma’ale people, let alone resulted in two significant milestones: Adumim, Givat Ze’ev, the Jordan Valley, etc.), for more than mutual recognition between Israel and the most or all of the Jewish settlements and half a century. Palestine Liberation Organization in 1993 outposts in , all of Area C, or even the (the ), and an interim self- entire West Bank.4 No matter the geographic government agreement signed in 1995 extent, annexation will initiate a perilous and (the Oslo II Accord) that established the nearly irreversible process, endangering Israel Palestinian Authority and the division of the on numerous fronts. The country will face West Bank into Areas A, B, and C. The Tel international reprisals, a cooling of diplomatic Aviv Institute for National Security Studies relations with global and regional allies, and has a comprehensive political and military a diminished economic outlook. The inroads plan3 for embarking toward a reality of of Oslo will be all but undone, undermining RICE UNIVERSITY’S BAKER INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY // ISSUE BRIEF // 11.04.19

the territorial viability of a future Palestinian .8 According to the law, any Israeli state and jeopardizing the security and civil government seeking to remove Israeli coordination with the Palestinian Authority. jurisdiction from territory in which it President Donald Trump has upended already applies—such as the Golan Heights decades of U.S. foreign policy, which or annexed West Bank territory—must previously sought a solution of two states receive the approval of at least 80 of 120 for two peoples through a process compliant Knesset members or, alternatively, 61 with UN Security Resolutions 242 and 338 members of the Knesset and 50% public and based on a “land for peace” principle. support by way of a general referendum. Thus, Israeli protagonists of annexation Thus, any annexed territory will be It will be nearly have sensed a historic opportunity. Trump’s extremely difficult to reverse, given the high threshold of legislative and public impossible to turn back 2018 relocation of the U.S. embassy in Israel from to and his 2019 support required. once the process of proclamation recognizing Israeli sovereignty There are also significant international annexation begins. over the Golan Heights have both signaled and diplomatic risks of annexing West Bank strong support for Israel. In addition, the U.S. territory, especially for Israel’s regional ambassador to Israel, David Friedman, has ties. Regarding Jordan and , the only commented that Israel has the right to “retain two Arab nations with which Israel has a parts of the West Bank.”5 The White House is peace agreement, annexation will greatly further indifferent to Prime Minister Benjamin challenge normalized relations, especially Netanyahu's campaign commitment to annex with Jordan. Annexation will increase the the Jordan Valley after the last Israeli elections, Hashemite Kingdom’s fears of becoming a while the Trump administration has also taken de jure or, ultimately, de facto “Palestinian drastic diplomatic and financial measures vis- state.”9 As public and political pressure à-vis the Palestinian Authority. In that context, intensifies in Jordan to terminate the the “political” portion of Trump’s “Deal of the 1994 Israel-Jordan peace accord, Israeli Century”—a long-awaited deal for Israeli- annexation will only increase chances for Palestinian peace about which little is known— a collapse of the treaty, particularly in the is unlikely to gain traction once released.6 wake of King Abdullah II’s 2018 decision Nevertheless, while a supportive Trump not to renew a 25-year-old land use administration might empower Israel to agreement that was established as part of begin enacting annexationist policies, it may the accord.10 not remain comfortably allied with Israel as Israel’s growing relationship with the fallout ensues. It is unlikely that the U.S. many Sunni Arab states will also diminish must choose will condone applying Israeli sovereignty in the event of West Bank annexation. to either disengage over all Jewish settlements in the West Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, or fully integrate Bank, as Netanyahu has suggested.7 There and other Gulf states have been discreetly with the . also remains the looming danger that any strengthening security ties to Israel, insofar future Democratic U.S. leadership, which as their strategic interests align regarding Annexation is not a will almost certainly support a two-state the Iranian threat. Nevertheless, Sunni valid alternative. vision, will reject Israeli sovereignty over Arab leaders remain beholden to the the West Bank (except for an equal swap of sentiments of their political bases, and lands and within the context of a negotiated Israel should expect a chilly reception if the agreement)—and perhaps reverse Trump’s Palestinian conflict remains relevant. In Golan Heights decision. Thus, any Israeli recent years, many Arab states have been action undertaken with Trump’s assurances less eager to issue Palestinian rallying cries, will be under question, and Israel could find but steps toward Israeli annexation of West itself facing international hostility without Bank territory will prompt Sunni Arabs to American support. flock to the cause once again. Moreover, it will be nearly impossible Naturally, the Palestinians will react to turn back once the process of most harshly to any Israeli overtures annexation begins, due to the 2014 “Basic toward annexation. Unilaterally asserting Law: Referendum,” passed by the Israeli sovereignty in parts of the West Bank will 2 UNILATERAL WEST BANK ANNEXATION BY ISRAEL: A HAZARDOUS VOYAGE

likely prove a lethal blow to hopes for an org/research/repercussions-partial-or-full- eventual two-state solution, as well as any west-bank-annexation-israel/. power vested in the Palestinian Authority. 2. “The Land of Israel” in Hebrew. The prospect of Palestinian uprisings in 3. Amos Yadlin, Udi Dekel, and Kim Gaza and the West Bank without the benefit Lavi, “A Strategic Framework for the Israeli- of Palestinian Authority security forces Palestinian Arena,” Institute for National will require the to Security Studies, March 2019, https:// further deploy military forces in the West www.inss.org.il/publication/strategic- Bank, perhaps even doubling its presence.11 framework-israeli-palestinian-arena/. A resurgence of Palestinian violence will 4. The Israeli-Palestinian Interim Self- also demand further security checkpoints Government Agreement signed in 1995 and roadblocks, and perhaps eventually (the Oslo II Accord) established, inter alia, a even reinstating a military administration plan to create the Palestinian Authority. It in Areas A and B, creating constant and also divided the West Bank into Areas A, B, unsustainable friction in the freshly annexed and C, with Area A under full Palestinian territory. Since the from control, and Area B under Palestinian civil 2000-2005, Israel has contended with control and an overriding security authority pockets of violent terror, but annexation for Israel. Together, these areas made may incite a sustained and widely up roughly 40% of the West Bank, with coordinated Palestinian uprising. Israel-controlled Area C accounting for the A healthy in this reality is remaining 60%. This arrangement was inconceivable. Unless Israel were to offer meant to last for a maximum 5 years, during citizenship including, inter alia, voting rights which time the two sides would negotiate a to every Palestinian under its jurisdiction, final agreement. any extension of sovereignty or control 5. David M. Halbfinger, “U.S. Ambassador will lead to an apartheid-like system that Says Israel Has Right to Annex Parts of West tears at the moral fabric of the Jewish Bank,” The New York Times, June 8, 2019, state. Palestinians and the international https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/08/ community will soon come to realize that world/middleeast/israel-west-bank-david- annexation is a permanent reality, and they friedman.html. will most probably demand that Israel either 6. Michael J. Koplow, “The Deal of return the land in a negotiated agreement or the Century’s Audacious Bets,” Israel offer full rights to all its citizens. Policy Forum, May 23, 2019, https:// Compromising Israel’s Jewish- israelpolicyforum.org/2019/05/23/the- democratic character by jeopardizing the deal-of-the-centurys-audacious-bets/. Jewish majority encompassed within the 7. David M. Halbfinger, “Netanyahu country’s borders is unacceptable to most Vows to Start Annexing West Bank, in Bid Jewish Israelis, but so is controlling the daily to Rally the Right,” The New York Times, lives of the Palestinians without equal rights. April 6, 2019, https://www.nytimes. Israelis must choose to either disengage com/2019/04/06/world/middleeast/ or fully integrate with the Palestinians. netanyahu-annex-west-bank.html. Annexation is not a valid alternative. 8. Joel Singer, “Trump’s Recognition of Israeli Sovereignty in the Golan Heights and Netanyahu’s Promise to Annex the Jewish ENDNOTES Settlements in the West Bank – Poison Pills to Middle East Peace,” Joel Singer, May 16, 1. This issue brief is based on a previous 2019, https://www.joelsinger.org/trumps- report: Gilead Sher and Daniel Cohen, The recognition-of-israeli-sovereignty-in-the- Repercussions of Partial or Full West golan-heights-and-netanyahus-promise-to- Bank Annexation by Israel (Houston: Rice annex-the-jewish-settlements-in-the-west- University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, bank-poison-pills-to-middle-east-peace/. September 2019), https://www.bakerinstitute.

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9. Curtis Ryan, “Jordanians Worry That the ‘Deal of the Century’ Will Come at Their Expense,” Washington Post, June 1, 2019, https://beta.washingtonpost.com/ politics/2019/06/01/jordanians-worry- that-deal-century-will-come-their- expense/. 10. Gilead Sher and Mor Ben-Kalifa, “Challenge to the Israel-Jordan Peace Treaty,” Institute for National Security Studies, October 29, 2018, https://www.inss.org.il/ publication/challenge-israel-jordan-peace- treaty/. 11. Commanders for Israel’s Security, Ramifications of West Bank Annexation: Security and Beyond (Commanders for Israel’s Security and Israel Policy Forum, 2018), 19, https://israelpolicyforum.org/ annexation/.

AUTHOR

Gilead Sher is the Isaac and Mildred Brochstein Fellow in Middle East Peace and See more issue briefs at: Security in Honor of Yitzhak Rabin at the www.bakerinstitute.org/issue-briefs Baker Institute. He is also a senior researcher

This publication was written by a at the Tel Aviv Institute for National Security researcher (or researchers) who Studies, where he heads the Center for participated in a Baker Institute project. Applied Negotiations. Wherever feasible, this research is reviewed by outside experts before it is Daniel Cohen is a research intern in the released. However, the views expressed Baker Institute Center for the Middle East. herein are those of the individual author(s), and do not necessarily He is an undergraduate at Rice University represent the views of Rice University’s studying linguistics and Jewish studies, with Baker Institute for Public Policy. a concentration in Arabic and Islamic texts.

© 2019 Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy

This material may be quoted or reproduced without prior permission, provided appropriate credit is given to the author and Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.

Cite as: Sher, Gilead, and Daniel Cohen. 2019. Unilateral West Bank Annexation by Israel: A Hazardous Voyage. Baker Institute Report no. 11.04.19. Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, Houston, Texas. https://doi.org/10.25613/WB6P-4809

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