OSSERVATORIO N.6 | Jun

OSSERVATORIO N.6 | Jun. 2019 Trend · Politics · Economics

TREND POLITICS ECONOMICS European vote increases Inverted equilibria in the GDP returns to grow in first Lega’s weight changing the majority jeopardises the quarter but pace remains close scenarios for future majorities. Government and the PoR to zero. keeps open chances of an early vote.

1 This issue of Osservatorio was closed on June 3rd, 2019 . Next issue: July 4th, 2019 Cover photo: © CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri EDITORIAL European elections: new equilibria, old instability

The results of the European elections outline a clear reversal in the power relations between the Lega and the Movimento 5 Stelle within the majority parties. The vast success of Matteo Salvini, who was also able to wear out the Movimen- to’s leverage in the Southern Regions, redefines the Government agenda rein- forcing the Lega’s priorities.

The symmetrical dualism with Luigi Di Maio comes to a close and Di Maio’s favourable numbers in the Cabinet will not be enough to slow down his ally’s surge. The stability of the Contract for Government will no longer depend on the balance of the Government’s approved measures, but rather on the Movimento 5 Stel- le’s ability to follow a political line which can accommodate the Lega’s requests without being completely out of touch with its base.

The one just described is a difficult compromise to strike, especially when considering that conceding greater leeway to Salvini could result in losing more voters. In fact, the scenario of a Government crisis is still very much on the table for the President of the Republic, who is worried that conflict within Palazzo Chigi will continue should the Lega’s pressure be non-negotiable for the other majority party.

The time frame for this scenario – which could see a centre-right coalition winning, based on the results of the Europen elections – is bound by the economic timeline: a general election would need to be held by the end of September for the budget act to be produced by a new Government in office. This step is key to manage the European Union’s apprehension regarding the stability of the Ita- lian public finances. The paradoxical result of the last elections clearly emerges from the role of Italy in Europe: the Lega, a predominant force at the national level, will not be part of the majority who will have the power to influence the appointments of the major political offices within the European institutions. Coming out of a mandate where it held the presidency of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Parliament, Italy is now risking to stand on the sidelines if the Government fails to mitigate the internal sovereigntists pressures with the positions of Christian-democrats, socialists and liberals.

3 INDEX

TREND

5 What would have happened if on May 26th the country voted for the general elections?

POLITICS

8 The Movimento 5 Stelle is going through a reform

9 The Government Lega-led “Phase 2”

10 The President of the Republic’s red lines for a Government crisis

11 The European implications of the Italian vote

ECONOMICS

12 Matteo Salvini’s €30bn fiscal act

13 GDP slowing down, latest ISTAT estimates

14 Markets reaction and Europe’s possible stance

INTERVIEW

15 Marco Zatterin: which future for the European Union?

© CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri © CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri © CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri OSSERVATORIO - Trend · Politics · Economics

Trend

What would have happened if on May 26th the country voted for the general elections?

he European elections on the 26th May YouTrend tried to answer this question with si- drastically changed the power relations mulations based on four different scenarios Twithin the Italian political landscape. This and carried out for Cattaneo Zanetto & Co. It is not news; it is in fact a regular occurrence is important to note that these are simulations which has been happening consistently since and not an exact reflection of reality: even if 2013. A series of “electoral revolutions” sharing new elections were to take place in the next few one constant: voters always reward the political months, it goes without saying that there are force which best embodies the willingness to clear differences between a European vote and change the status quo. This happened in 2013 a national one. and 2018 with the Movimento 5 Stelle, in the 2014 European elections with Matteo Renzi’s These speculations are naturally destined to be- Partito Democratico and in 2019 with Salvini’s come obsolete, “overrun” by subsequent even- Lega. ts. More specifically, the distribution of public consensus could be affected by the European The distribution of public consensus emerging elections results in multiple ways: it could trig- from European elections carries substantial po- ger a “bandwagon effect” that brings more and litical consequences, irrespective of what the more votes to Matteo Salvini’s party or, on the future of the Government may be: even if the contrary, it could bring voters closer to its oppo- ECONOMICS majority carries on as is, the internal power re- sition. For the time being, it’s impossible to pre- lations are now vastly different, as it has been dict in which direction we are headed, but the chronicled in the past few days. Should there polls in the next few weeks will realistically pro- be new elections, what would the Parliament vide useful clues. composition look like if Italians distributed their votes among the various parties like they did on latest election?

INTERVIEW

5 © CC-BY-NC-SA Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri OSSERVATORIO - Trend · Politics · Economics

scenario 1 - centre-right coalition

The first scenario sees identical coalitions to the ones in effect in 2018. Results are clear-cut: a centre-right coalition formed by the Lega, Forza Italia and Fratelli d’Italia would win a majority just short of two thirds in the Chamber of Deputies (402 seats out of 618) and of exact- ly two thirds in the Senate (206 out of 309).

402 78

134

scenario 2 - lega only

What would happen if the Lega decided to stand alone in the next elections? Our simula- tion portrays a state of affairs whereby the Lega would win 262 seats in the Chamber and 124 in the Senate: substantial numbers but still considerably short of what is needed for Matteo Salvini to win a majority.

70 116 262

166

6 OSSERVATORIO - Trend · Politics · Economics

scenario 3 - fdi+lega

The most interesting result is possibly the one ari- sing from the third scenario, whereby we specula- ted about an “all-sovereignist” coalition between the Lega and Fratelli d’Italia. With a 40.8% share of the vote, this coalition would win the majority in both Houses (328 seats in the Chamber of Depu- ties and 162 in the Senate) without having to extend the coalition to Berlusconi nor the the Movimento 5 Stelle.

36 101 328

149

scenario 4 - fi+centre-left coalition

If the scenario just described were to become a reality, we could speculate that the divorce between Silvio Berlusconi and his historical allies would lead to crucial consequences. It might even lead to the emergence of an “anti-sovereignist” and pro-Eu- ropean line-up formed by the centre-left but also Forza Italia itself. If the numbers were the same as the European elections, this line-up would still not have enough consensus to win against the sovereignist coalition, but it would prevent them from winning the absolute majority in Parliament.

86 293 235

6 7 OSSERVATORIO - Trend · Politics · Economics

Politics

The Movimento 5 Stelle is going through a reform

nalysis of the defe- in 2018; on the other hand, it is various strands coexisting wi- at”, “a showdown”: possibly even more important thin the party, whose synthesis these expressions, to identify an organisational is now key to avoid jeopardising “ “A commonly used by the media structure which can put an end the majority in Parliament as for the losing parties in the after- to the Movimento’s subordina- a result of the loss of consen- math of an election, seem to be tion to the Lega. sus in the European elections. now very apt for the Movimento A possible way forward is to 5 Stelle for the very first time. The Rather than a pure headcount, establish a top-down hierar- immediate effect of the Europe- the Movimento is looking for an chical structure where Luigi Di an elections is noticeable within identity that is pragmatic but Maio becomes the voice of the the Movimento led by Luigi Di does not err on the side of flexi- five stratified strands, which Maio and the future equilibria bility. In other words, it is looking can be, in theory, traced back of the Government will largely to define a clear red-line on the to Roberto Fico, Beppe Grillo, depend on the outcome of the themes and policies which need Alessandro Di Battista, Davide internal discussions that Movi- to be negotiated with the Lega, Casaleggio and Di Maio himself. mento’s leadership will have. with the ultimate aim of coun- The other option entails a more terbalancing its growing power drastic choice of allegiances, The current situation of the in the political arena instead of which oscillates between the Movimento is reminiscent of a battling only on communica- moderate “leftist” side close to difficult juncture experienced tion style, where Salvini showed Fico and the more radical and in the aftermath of the 2019 re- a considerable edge. “grass-roots” one embodied by gional elections, when a central Di Battista. The former is onto- and regional “organisational re- The case at hand cannot be sol- logically too far from the Lega’s structure” was announced, whi- ved by simply legitimising Luigi stance on themes such as im- ch appears to have now exacer- Di Maio as a political leader, who migration and civil rights, while bated as it questions the very was in fact reaffirmed by the the latter was already publicly leadership role of Di Mario. On vote of the Rousseau platform’s disqualified from a possible col- the one hand, it is necessary to user base as well as a disputed laboration by Salvini himself. hold accountable those respon- parliamentary assembly. sible for the loss of almost half The main challenge for the Mo- of the party’s base, hard-earned vimento is now recognising the

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now holding the upper hand in in hand upper the holding now sion of more politically sensitive sensitive politically more of sion - increa Lega’s the of measure

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diate by-product of the vote, vote, the of by-product diate Construction Sites” Decree for for Decree Sites” Construction newing a “tax amnesty”. These These amnesty”. “tax a newing

- imme an as envisioned Maio flat tax flat amendment to the “Unlocking “Unlocking the to amendment - re and families to the

tract for Government, which Di Di which Government, for tract the vote, based on extending extending on based vote, the an issuing by with dealt already

- Con the of 2” “Phase U-turn. in chronological order and was was and order chronological in Salvini announced right after after right announced Salvini

seems to have made a radical radical a made have to seems boost businesses was the first first the was businesses boost part of the €30bn tax policy that that policy tax €30bn the of part

post-26th May state of affairs affairs of state May post-26th Public Procurement Code Procurement Public The last two key chapters are are chapters key two last The to

ly Government collapse, the the collapse, Government ly temporary suspension of the the of suspension temporary

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more and more displeased with with displeased more and more sensibly skewed towards the Le the towards skewed sensibly - sen more party Salvini’s make -

were characterised by a Lega Lega a by characterised were for Government, despite being being despite Government, for in the Southern Regions could could Regions Southern the in W

European elections elections European the boundaries of the Contract Contract the of boundaries the Lega’s ever-increasing success success ever-increasing Lega’s

leading up to the the to up leading these priorities remain within within remain priorities these Emilia-Romagna, even if the the if even Emilia-Romagna,

hile the months months the hile tion to to date. As stated by Salvini, Salvini, by stated As date. to to for Lombardy, Veneto and and Veneto Lombardy, for

- devolu regional the on debate antagonised by the Movimen the by antagonised -

policy dossiers most strongly strongly most dossiers policy equilibria should also unlock the the unlock also should equilibria “Phase 2” “Phase

focused on fast-tracking those those fast-tracking on focused red a vast consensus. The new new The consensus. vast a red

Lega-led Lega-led

relevant and the Lega is now now is Lega the and relevant - secu Cirio Alberto candidate

ach a breaking point is no longer longer no is point breaking a ach elections where centre-right centre-right where elections

The Government Government The

the election-induced lure to re to lure election-induced the result of Piedmont’s regional regional Piedmont’s of result -

Fi Il Sole 24 Ore 24 Sole Il Source : :

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The balance of power in the M5S the in power of balance The

OSSERVATORIO - Trend · Politics · Economics · Politics · Trend -

W Government crisis red linesfor a of the Republic’s The President lity of an early vote, which the Unable to exclude the possibi Italy’s publicdebt. ding breaking the rules over sion sounded the alarm regar where the European Commis followed the receipt of a letter the State’s intervention closely conflicts. In fact, the Head of the economic agenda without rity to meet the deadlines of the ability of the current majo to Conte himself and related to cated by President Mattarella the apprehensions communi Adding to these unknowns are vernment’s long-term goals. and proving loyalty to the Go to end internal confrontations a press conference on June 3rd seppe Conte held by Prime Minister Giu solidity of the light of the new equilibria, is the requests. Still to be clarified, in to compromise Movimento 5 Stelle is end is the extent to which the lihood of a Government’s early riable at play to assess the like eds oftheelectorate. an obstacle to the wants and ne if needed, publicly pointed at as gely weakened and can also be, sensus of an ally who is now lar keep on eroding the public con party totive, enabling Salvini’s mento 5 Stelle stay in the posi Government with the Movi boundaries of the Contract for OSSERVATORIO OSSERVATORIO majority, the key va reversal within the ith a de facto role , who demaded in mediation role on the Lega’s -Trend ·Politics ·Economics -Trend ·Politics ·Economics willing ------I en Christian-Democrats and will enable a coalition betwe whereby liberals and greens much pro-Europe majority, The establishment of a very parties. current rise of were in fact contained by a con in Poland, the nationalist forces the Law and Justice (PiS) party of Viktor Urban in Hungary and the exception of the instances vigorous than expected. With fairness, turned out to be less sovereignist wave which, in sents the highest peak of the proving thebudgetact. and to be in the position of ap to the European Commission ne to submit the budgetary plan meet the 15th October deadli quickly elected Government to This timeline would enable a options before the end of 2019. cond half of September as viable narios see the vote in the se mid-June – the most likely sce solution of the Parliament by – which would require a dis point of no return is reached as an“extrema ratio” in case a Considering an August election ger befeasible. to 5 Stelle coexistence no lon act, should the Lega-Movimen election before the next budget so as to be able to call a general ment sooner rather than later actual solidity of this Govern to be keen to substantiate the the President therefore seems yet another sign of uncertainty, market would definitely see as the Italian vote implications of The European tion of Salvini’s Lega repre tion of Salvini’s symbolic power, the valida n terms of numerical and liberal and green 10 ------

Matteo Salvini started dealings ople’s Party (EPP)– with which – still part of the European Pe States, even Orban’s Hungary to coalesce with other Member ropean Parliament and chance ve of numbers within the Eu weak both from the perspecti The starting point seems to be having anincreasingrole. socialist Premier Pedro Sanchez ris-Berlin axis, with Spain and its decided once again on the Pa appointments are likely to be gotiations clearly show how the gn Affairs – and the initial ne High Representative for Forei President of the ECB and the and Parliament – as well as the European Commission, Council ment of the Presidents of the who gets to decide the appoint In fact, it will be the new majority and Brussels. tiating leverage in Strasbourg tory will not lead to more nego likely means that the Lega’s vic surpass the required threshold, not able socialiststo otherwise dissolution oftheHouses reporting ofvoters from days beforethev days beforethevote: indiction ofelectoral days betweenthe and electionday 60 45 70 caucuses abroad ote: ------

Fi in the past few months and that Zatterin in his interview with there is the European executi- nonetheless denied possible Osservatorio – the grounds for ve which will have to wait until collaborations with the Lega. negotiation/clash with Europe November 1st to have a new bo- will also feature another heated ard of commissioners in office. Awaiting to identify the consor- debate around the flexibility Hence it could have to buy time tium which Italy will put forward of budget parameters started before making radical and bin- to defend the appointment of from the European Commis- ding decisions for the member the Italian member of the Eu- sion letter on the Italian public States, such as requesting a cor- ropean Commission – true key debt. On one side there are the rective manoeuvre to get back office in this round of appoint- more intense tones announces within the public debt red lines. ments, as explained by Marco by Salvini himself, on the other

Early voting options, and the budget law’s path

dates for voting before the budget law from

july september september september february 7th 15th 22nd 29th 15th dissolution of dissolution of dissolution of dissolution of dissolution of Parliament Parliament Parliament Parliament Parliament from within between between between January 1st 2020 June 13th July 7th - July 14th - July 21st - onwards August 1st August 8th August 15st

budget law timeline

september 27th Submission to the Parliament of the Update Note to the Document of Economy and Finance (UNDEF) october 10th deadline for Parliamentary approval of UNDEF resolution i F

october 15th Deadline to submit the Budget Plan to the EU

october 20th Submission of Budget Act to the Parliament

november 30th Deadline for European Commission’s feedback on budget plan december 31st Deadline for final Parliamentary approval and formal issue on Official Journal of the Republic

10 11 OSSERVATORIO - Trend · Politics · Economics

Economics

Matteo Salvini’s €30bn fiscal act

osts of the next budget In terms of financial cover, declared, applying a lump-sum Law could rise to €50bn, experts are looking carefully at payment of 20%. Cshould the feasibility of the one corresponding to the the €30bn fiscal plan proposed reduction in tax expenditure by the Lega in the aftermath of of upper-middle incomes who the vote be confirmed in the sign up for the favourable tax next few months. In addition to regime. Some estimates seem the €23bn required to block the to indicate savings of €8bn VAT safeguard clause, the 2020 obtained by crossing out tax Budget Law should therefore discounts for incomes higher cover a number of tax relief in- than €80k. Vice-Minister Gara- terventions in favour of families vaglia also implied that an initial and enterprises which will, once version of the flat tax could be again, be centred around the feasible with a financial cover flat tax.. in the range of €10bn to €12bn, which could also be sourced by 50bn Key Lega executives in the Tre- reviewing or rescinding the €80 required to asury, Vice-Minister Massimo income tax relief introduced by implement the Garavaglia and undersecretary Renzi’s Government. Massimo Bitonci, are working Lega’s fiscal plan to define a framework which, The other key passage of the and to block the VAT as it appears from the latest re- Lega’s plan would involve a new safeguard clauses in leases, should apply a fixed rate phase of the tax amnesty, which the next budget law of 15% for families whose inco- would allow for the declaration me is below €50k and making of previously undeclared inco- signing up to a flat rate for up- mes up to €100k, however not© CC-BY-NC-SA Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri per-middle incomes optional. higher than 30% of what already

12 OSSERVATORIO - Trend · Politics · Economics

GDP slowing down, latest ISTAT estimates

he ISTAT (Italy’s National Instititute of Statistics) has now certified a downward cor- rection of the preliminary estimates provided on April 30th. During the first quarter of T2019, GDP only grew by 0.1% with respect to the previous quarter, instead of the predicted 0.2%. With respect to the first quarter of 2018 the growth is actually negative, with a -0.1% instead of the predicted +0.1%. On the basis of this performance, the expected growth over the full year would confirm a “zero growth” hypothesis. A potentially worse figure than what the ISTAT itself had anticipated in its forecasts on May 22nd, where it had outlined a predicted 2019 growth of 0.3% boosted only by an increase, albeit small, in domestic demand in the face of zero contribution from foreign demand.

The quarterly estimate, despite weak main aggregates, nonetheless confirms the end of the ‘technical’ recession phase and shows positive numbers for the individual components: domestic consumption (+0.2%), fixed investments (+0.6%), export (+0.2%). Sharp drop in im- port (-1.5%). Particularly positive is the increase in value-added from agriculture and indu- stry which show a +2.9% and +0.9% respectively.

These last figures seem to be reflected in the most recent estimates of consumers’ and enterprises’ confidence in May. Both indices are in an upward trajectory, with the first one jumping © CC-BY-NC-SA Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri from 110.6 to 111.8 and the second from 98.8 to 100.2. This is the first positive result after three months of negative figures. In terms of enterprises, the manufacturing sector is showing the most positive signs, with the index jumping from 100.2 to 102 thanks to an increase in orders and expected output.

Gross Domestic Product, quarterly percentage change

0.8

0.4

-0.4

-0.8

-1.2 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

12 13 OSSERVATORIO - Trend · Politics · Economics

Markets reaction and Europe’s possible stance 233 The 10-yr BTP/ he first reaction of the financial markets to the BUND spread’s six- Italian vote and the change in equilibria of the months low Tpolitical agenda signals uncertainty. The move towards a Lega’s centre of gravity coincided with an (march 2019) increase in spread, surpassing the threshold of 290 BPS. Noteworthy is how the last few days’ increase marks the peak of a trajectory which began right after having hit a 6-month minimum in March (233 BPS), which saw the index oscillating around 270 BPS in the two weeks leading up to the vote.

Exacerbating the market apprehensions are not only Salvini’s statements on the fiscal act, but also the com- munications of the European Commision around not 290 meeting the requirements for public debt reduction The 10-yr BTP/ in 2018. A performance which only partly reflects the BUND spread’s responsibilities of the current Government but redu- ces the available room for the majority to meet the tar- highs after the gets of the economic policy with deficit financing. European Elections

The 10-yr BTP/bund spread in the last six months

325

300

275

250

225

200 July September November January March May 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019

Source: Il Sole 24 Ore

14 OSSERVATORIO - Trend · Politics · Economics

Interview

The soveregnist wave was try to interpret in that light what nished, but not the psychologi- probably less vigorous than happened in Belgium, where cal one. This is why I believe it’s expected. What is worth there was a considerable shift important to wait and see how more, the seats won in the to the right, but this is actually the traditional parties will re- European Parliament or the less related to European matters act. If they are able to come to symbolic power of the suc- and more to the fact the coun- an agreement between them- cesses in France and Italy? try does not seem to be able to selves to reach a majority stake, find unity since 1830. If we look it being three or four parties, Much depends on the reaction at Hungary instead, it has always maintaining a constructive atti- of the political forces which are been a Eurosceptic country, tude, then they’ll manage to de- working to build a major inte- even though Orban manages fuse even the strongest protests gration in Europe. As an exam- things with much craftiness. in the next five years. If tensions ple, let’s look at the results in I find hard to believe that the and clashes came to life inste- France: it’s impressive to see Hungarian Prime Minister might ad, with those parties not being Marine Le Pen’s Rassemble- want to leave the European Pe- able to form a solid coalition, we ment National being the top ople’s Party (EPP) to join Salvini. will likely see an even stronger party. Although if we count rise of Eurosceptic and soverei- votes, we notice that they are, Altogether, the sovereignist or gnist parties at the next Europe- considering turnout figures, Eurosceptic parties in Europe an elections. the same as the Presidential won about 36 more seats. This is elections. Hence, in reality, the assuming that Kaczynski’s party The validation of Salvini and situation in terms of Le Pen’s in Poland is happy to be in the the Lega might have a dimi- consensus hasn’t changed. same coalition as Le Pen, con- shed impact given that they Italy is the only country which sidering its positioning on clear might find themselves outside distinctly chose a sovereign- anti-Russian sentiments. Then the European majority. How tists, populist and unsympa- there is also the Movimento 5 does Italy come out of these thetic towards Europe side. Stelle: do we really believe they European elections? Instance which is even more can be part of this type of coali- unique when considering tion? I must admit that, personally, I that it comes from a founding feel sorry about having to notice member. We could probably The impact, therefore, is dimi- how Italy will stand on the side-

15 OSSERVATORIO - Trend · Politics · Economics

lines of Europe in the next few and Italy will be cut out. It’s a Also, let’s be clear. The problem years, because I’m convinced pity, because even if you don’t is not what Europe will dictate that around the country there believe in Europe – actually, if we break the rules. It’s more is still a majority of people rea- even more so in this case – you the cost of financing our pu- dy to believe in the European should want to be inside Euro- blic debt, which will sensibly project. pe’s inner workings to try and fix go up as a result of an increase them. Based on the information in spread or interest rates. We The fact that the Government, at hand and the current state of already spend between 4 and particularly Salvini, chose to be affairs, it seems we are laying 5 percentage points of GDP antagonistic toward Brussels the groundwork to be margina- each year on this financing. In will lead to an equally antago- lised for the next five years. this scenario we’ll end up spen- nistic reaction of the European ding several billions of euros on parties. On their part, this is not First action on Salvini’s to- interest payments, spoiling all mere touchiness instigated by do list is the feud over public the efforts made to free those the daily criticism received by accounts with the European billions and invest them in the the Lega’s leader, but rather Commission: is the Lega’s le- economy. Let’s say it is not con- an intention to show that who- ader actually in a bargaining venient, to say the least. ever is against them cannot sit position to negotiate a loose- at their table for any reason. ning of budget constraints? Let’s look at the EU appoint- The consequence is natural: ments: what should and must the next few months will see a A hardball negotiation has clo- Italy realistically aim at? Is it number of key appointments to se to zero chances of success. possible to side with at least European offices being made, Matteo Salvini is not in a posi- part of the EPP, like the part tion of strength on the matter: represented by Orban and the even the States that are most Polish Law and Justice (PiS)? “The fact sovereigntist or most critical towards the EU, in particular the NWe start from a position un- that the Nordic ones, are characterised fortunately advantageous. Hol- by being “rigorists”. They belie- ding both the ECB with Draghi Government, ve they need to closely control and the European Parliament and manage public finances. with Tajani, we can already be particularly Hence, it’s highly unlikely that sure that neither of those two Baltic and Nordic countries, will be Italian again, while the Salvini, the Netherlands, Germany, will Commission and the Cabinet be happy with Italy breaking will be split among the winning chose to be the rules. Even Greece, Spain coalitions, that is Christian-de- antagonistic and Portugal could be against mocrats, socialists and liberals. Italy on this issue, as they had toward to endure tough consolidation We’ll definitely have a European paths. Commissioner and we’ll have to Brussels try to gain one with a good bud- If the Government were able to get. I’m thinking Economic and will lead to propose a realistic plan instead, Financial Affairs, Competition, even suggesting to tempora- Environment, Trade. There’s an equally rily or partially exceed the pu- also the High Representati- blic budget, then maybe the ve, but much like in previous antagonistic outcome could be different. I example this is also precluded fear though that our bargaining to us given that we’ve just held reaction of power will be extremely low it. The Government therefore given that, even before the re- has to identify a good candida- the European ceipt of a simple interrogation te, neutral, credible, considered letter, a negative response from a subject-matter expert, and parties” Italy’s end was announced. much will depend on our ne-

16 gotiating style: we have to con- and social context too different ce. Even if he came second, the vince European parties and fa- from ours? What role will they French leader will get to nego- milies – which our Government have in the appointment of the tiate with Merkel and other Eu- criticises on a daily basis – that new Commission? ropean leaders, hence having Italy is qualified and has merit to direct impact on the key ap- sit at the table with them in an I personally hope that Euro- pointments of the Commission. leading role. pe will see a four-party majority. However, regarding the I want to reiterate one thing It will not be an easy negotiation, appointments, I don’t see the though: I believe that the but I hope Italy will get a strong Greens to be in an optimal po- four parties will have a duty to Commissioner. This is because sition. There aren’t many green establish a peaceful and colla- a country like ours – founding ministers and, more importantly, borative environment, to build member, pro-European tradi- it’s the government leaders who a different Europe – because it tion, 60 million people and the get to decide in the European is necessary to build a different second or third strongest eco- Council, therefore the Greens Europe. In which case even the nomy in the Continent – deser- have no chance to play a key Italian electorate might see that ves a Commissioner with a big role in the appointments’ nego- Europe is not a distant entity, budget. tiations. It’s important though but rather a place where also to consider that in Parliament, our representatives get to deci- Lastly, a look at the other so as to signal a strong majority, de what a bright future for all of pro-European forces surging Commissioners and President us looks like. in these elections, Liberals and will need the Greens’ support to Greens. These are foreces that be appointed. Liberals will play can gain traction in Italy as well a bigger role instead, mostly or are they born in a political because of Macron’s presen-

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