Gatwick Limited

London Airport Summary of Air Quality Assessments of Proposals for a Third at Heathrow

AQ/LHR

Issue | 28 May 2015

This report takes into account the particular instructions and requirements of our client. It is not intended for and should not be relied upon by any third party and no responsibility is undertaken to any third party.

Job number 235135-00

Ove Arup & Partners Ltd 13 Fitzroy Street W1T 4BQ www.arup.com

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AQ/LHR | Issue | 28 May 2015 J:\235000\235135 - AIR QUALITY SUPPORT\4 INTERNAL PROJECT DATA\4-05 ARUP REPORTS\LHR SUMMARY OF ASSESSMENTS\_ISSUED\LHR SUMMARY ISSUE 150528 V2.DOCX

Gatwick Airport Limited London Heathrow Airport Summary of Air Quality Assessments of Proposals for a Third Runway at Heathrow

Contents

Page

1 Introduction 1

2 Construction Assessment 2 2.1 Construction 2025 2 2.2 Construction 2029 3

3 Operational Assessment 4 3.1 Operation 2025 5 3.2 Operation 2029 5

4 Conclusions 7

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Gatwick Airport Limited London Heathrow Airport Summary of Air Quality Assessments of Proposals for a Third Runway at Heathrow

1 Introduction

Ove Arup and Partners Ltd (Arup) has been commissioned by Gatwick Airport Ltd to carry out a series of air quality assessments for the construction and operational phases of the proposed development of a third runway at Heathrow Airport. Various assessments of air quality impacts have been undertaken both during construction and operation of the North West Runway (NWR) scheme, assuming different opening years and air traffic and passenger growth forecasts. A list of the assessments undertaken and report references is detailed below. Construction assessment:  2025 opening year (AQ/LHR-CON/04)  2029 opening year (AQ/LHR-CON/ADD-01) Operational assessment:  HAL growth forecasts, 2025 opening year (AQ/LHR-OP/03)  HAL growth forecasts, 2029 opening year (AQ/LHR-OP/ADD-01)  Commission growth forecasts, 2025 and 2029 opening years (AQ/LHR-OP/09) This report summarises the outcomes of these assessments.

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Gatwick Airport Limited London Heathrow Airport Summary of Air Quality Assessments of Proposals for a Third Runway at Heathrow

2 Construction Assessment

Air quality impacts during construction of the scheme arise principally as a result of changes in traffic flows on the local road network and temporary road diversions. The likely construction activities required and the consequent traffic changes were determined by Arup. The effects of these changes were assessed using the ADMS- Roads atmospheric dispersion model. A high-level baseline assessment of the area covered by roads where construction was expected to lead to significant change in traffic flows was undertaken. The results of this assessment was used to identify areas of existing poor air quality where detailed air quality modelling was undertaken. Pollutant concentrations were forecast at selected sensitive receptors within these study areas. To account for uncertainty in future emissions and background concentrations, the Highways Long Term Trends (LTT) method has been used alongside the “standard” Defra predictions for future pollutant emission rates and background concentrations. The Defra predictions are generally considered to be optimistic as they assume that future emission controls will work well. This has not been the case with some of the more recent emission control requirements which have been found to be ineffective in “on the road” driving conditions. The assessment scenarios are summarised as follows: a. current baseline scenario; b. projected baseline scenario using the current baseline traffic data with future emissions and background concentrations; c. future year ‘without construction’ scenario, including committed schemes; and d. future year ‘with construction’ scenario, including committed schemes and the NWR scheme.

2.1 Construction 2025 This air quality assessment examined the impact of construction traffic assuming an opening year of 2025 for the NWR scheme. The following scenarios were included in the assessment:  Peak construction year 2025; and  Early construction year 2020. The results of the assessment demonstrate that there would be significant increases in NO2 concentrations as a result of the construction activities for the NWR scheme. In many study areas NO2 concentrations are predicted to exceed the air quality standard in both the 2020 and 2025 assessment years even when the more optimistic Defra method is used. Using the more pessimistic Highways England approach, NO2 concentrations are predicted to be nearly double the air quality standard in some locations. Approximately 16% to 66% of the assessed receptors have been

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Gatwick Airport Limited London Heathrow Airport Summary of Air Quality Assessments of Proposals for a Third Runway at Heathrow

predicted to exceed the air quality standard using the Defra and Highways England approaches respectively.

2.2 Construction 2029 This air quality assessment examined the impact of construction traffic assuming an opening year of 2029 for the NWR scheme. The results of the assessment demonstrate that there would be significant increases in NO2 concentrations as a result of the construction activities for the NWR scheme. In many study areas NO2 concentrations are predicted to exceed the air quality standard in 2026 even when the more optimistic Defra method is used. Using the more pessimistic Highways England approach, NO2 concentrations are predicted to be nearly double the air quality standard in some locations. Approximately 14% to 61% of the assessed receptors have been predicted to exceed the air quality standard using the Defra and Highways England approaches respectively.

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Gatwick Airport Limited London Heathrow Airport Summary of Air Quality Assessments of Proposals for a Third Runway at Heathrow

3 Operational Assessment

Operational air quality impacts from the scheme arise principally as a result of increased aircraft traffic and changes in road traffic on the local network. The effects of this increase in aircraft and road traffic were assessed using the ADMS atmospheric dispersion model. A study area of ‘hot spots’ around the airport was used in the assessment and relevant sensitive receptors were identified in each of these ‘hot spot’ areas. Pollutant concentrations were forecast at the selected receptors and at a detailed grid around the airport. An inventory of annual emissions was built for the following pollution sources:  Aircraft main engines in the landing and take-off (LTO) cycle;  Aircraft auxiliary power units (APUs);  Ground support equipment (GSE), namely vehicles within the airport site which are associated with the aircraft turn-around and the runway maintenance;  Other airport sources, including the airport heating plant; and  Road vehicles on the local road network around the airport. To account for uncertainty in future emissions and background concentrations, two approaches have been used in the assessment, alongside the “standard” method that assumes both emissions and background concentrations reduce in the future in line with expectations. The first approach used background concentrations from earlier years than the year of assessment. This results in higher predicted concentrations as background concentrations are expected to reduce in future years. The second approach used the long term trends method developed by Highways England (previously the Highways Agency), which uses predicted concentrations for a projected base year and Defra’s projection factors for annual mean NO2 concentrations to derive a suitable adjustment factor for the future assessment years. Further to the above sensitivity tests, Defra recently published a list of the 50 worst roads and the predicted NO2 concentrations using the Pollution Climate Mapping (PCM) model used by the Government when reporting to the European Commission on compliance with the EU Directive. Comparison of the results from modelling undertaken by Arup and the PCM model for 2025 and 2030 shows that the PCM model predicts concentrations that are some 25% higher. If the results of the assessments were scaled up to account for this underestimate, more exceedances of the limit value would be identified.

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Gatwick Airport Limited London Heathrow Airport Summary of Air Quality Assessments of Proposals for a Third Runway at Heathrow

3.1 Operation 2025 HAL’s growth forecasts This air quality assessment assumed an opening year of 2025 for the NWR scheme with a passenger throughput of 81mppa and approximately 532k ATMs as per HAL’s growth forecasts. The following scenarios were included in the assessment:  Defra method using 2025 background concentrations; and  Defra method using 2017 background concentrations. The results of the assessment demonstrate that there would be exceedances of the air quality standard for NO2 concentrations within the modelling area, except in the optimistic case that assumes that background concentrations reduce fully in line with Defra expectations by 2025. ’s growth forecasts This air quality assessment assumed an opening year of 2025 for the NWR scheme with a passenger through of 98mppa and approximately 564k ATMs as per Airports Commission’s ‘Low Cost is King’ growth forecasts. The following scenarios were included in the assessment:  Defra method using 2025 background concentrations;  Defra method using 2017 background concentrations; and  Highways England long term trends method. The results of the assessment demonstrate that there are predicted exceedances of the air quality standard for NO2 concentrations for all scenarios tested at the and study area and for some scenarios at other locations. In addition, predicted concentrations for some locations are very close to the limit value (being within less than 1μg/m3 from the limit value) particularly when using the Highways England long term trends approach.

3.2 Operation 2029 HAL’s growth forecasts This air quality assessment assumed an opening year of 2029 for the NWR scheme with a passenger throughput of 85mppa and approximately 548k ATMs as per HAL’s growth forecasts. The following scenarios were included in the assessment:  Defra method using 2029 background concentrations;  Defra method using 2021 background concentrations;  Defra method using 2019 background concentrations; and  Defra method using 2017 background concentrations. The results of the assessment demonstrate that there would be exceedances of the air quality standard for NO2 concentrations within the modelling area, except in the

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Gatwick Airport Limited London Heathrow Airport Summary of Air Quality Assessments of Proposals for a Third Runway at Heathrow

optimistic case where the background concentrations reduce fully in line with Defra expectations by 2029. Airports Commission’s growth forecasts This air quality assessment assumed an opening year of 2029 for the NWR scheme with a passenger through of 102mppa and approximately 588k ATMs as per Airports Commission’s ‘Low Cost is King’ growth forecasts. The following scenarios were included in the assessment:  Defra method using 2029 background concentrations;  Defra method using 2021 background concentrations;  Defra method using 2017 background concentrations; and  Highways England long term trends method. The results of the assessment demonstrate that there are predicted exceedances of the air quality standard for NO2 concentrations for all scenarios tested at the West Drayton and Harmondsworth study area. In addition, predicted concentrations for some locations are very close to the limit value particularly when using the Highways England long term trends approach.

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Gatwick Airport Limited London Heathrow Airport Summary of Air Quality Assessments of Proposals for a Third Runway at Heathrow

4 Conclusions

Table 1 presents a summary of all the assessment and where exceedances of the air quality standard have been predicted for each scenario. It can be observed that exceedances have been predicted at all assessed scenarios, except in the 2025 and 2029 HAL growth forecasts operation scenarios undertaken and when it is assumed that background concentrations reduce fully in line with the optimistic Defra expectations by 2025 and 2029. However even in these cases, concentrations have been predicted very close to the air quality standard, in some cases within 1μg/m3 of the standard at some locations indicating they are at risk of an exceedance. Overall, the assessments demonstrate that there is a high risk of an exceedance of the limit value for both the construction and operation of a third runway at Heathrow. Table 1 Summary of assessments

Scenario Outcome Construction Assessment 2025 opening year Predicted exceedance of limit value/objective  2029 opening year Predicted exceedance of limit value/objective  Operational Assessment (2025 Opening) HAL growth forecasts (assuming No predicted exceedance of limit value/objective 2025 background concentrations)  HAL growth forecasts (assuming Predicted exceedance of limit value/objective 2017 background concentrations)  AC growth forecasts (assuming Predicted exceedance of limit value/objective 2025 background concentrations)  AC growth forecasts (assuming Predicted exceedance of limit value/objective 2017 background concentrations)  AC growth forecasts (Highways Predicted exceedance of limit value/objective England methodology)  Operational Assessment (2029 Opening) HAL growth forecasts (assuming No predicted exceedance of limit value/objective 2029 background concentrations)  HAL growth forecasts (assuming Predicted exceedance of limit value/objective 2021 background concentrations)  HAL growth forecasts (assuming Predicted exceedance of limit value/objective 2019 background concentrations)  HAL growth forecasts (assuming Predicted exceedance of limit value/objective 2017 background concentrations)  AC growth forecasts (assuming Predicted exceedance of limit value/objective 2029 background concentrations)  AC growth forecasts (assuming Predicted exceedance of limit value/objective 2021 background concentrations)  AC growth forecasts (assuming Predicted exceedance of limit value/objective 2017 background concentrations)  AC growth forecasts (Highways Predicted exceedance of limit value/objective England methodology) 

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