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Meralco’S Franchise Area of Phl Gdp Investment Highlights

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Meralco’S Franchise Area of Phl Gdp Investment Highlights ` MANILA ELECTRIC COMPANY PSE: MER . UNIVERSITY OF THE PHILIPPINES MANILA ELECTRIC COMPANY LARGEST 55% POWER of PHL Retail DISTRIBUTION COMPANY Energy Sales MANILA ELECTRIC COMPANY LARGEST 55% POWER of PHL Retail DISTRIBUTION COMPANY Energy Sales PRODUCED IN 46% MERALCO’S FRANCHISE AREA OF PHL GDP INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS PHP 397.40 ONE-YEAR TARGET PRICE BUY RECOMMENDATION 43% Highly Defensive Core Distribution Business UPSIDE Promising Investments in Power Generation PHP 278.00 Solid Company 29 NOVEMBER ‘13 PRICE Financials PHILIPPINE POWER INDUSTRY EPIRA ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY REFORM ACT Resources Consumers Generation Transmission Supply Distribution PHILIPPINE POWER INDUSTRY EPIRA ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY REFORM ACT Generation Transmission Supply Distribution OPEN AND COMPETITIVE PHILIPPINE POWER INDUSTRY EPIRA ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY REFORM ACT GenerationTransmission Supply Distribution REGULATED AND AWARDED THROUGH CONGRESSIONAL FRANCHISE PHILIPPINE POWER INDUSTRY EPIRA ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY REFORM ACT Generation Transmission Supply Distribution NOT ALLOWED TO ENGAGE IN OTHER SECTORS OF THE POWER INDUSTRY PHILIPPINE POWER INDUSTRY EPIRA ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY REFORM ACT Generation Transmission Supply Distribution ALLOWED TO ENGAGE IN SUPPLY AND POWER GENERATION PHILIPPINE POWER INDUSTRY EPIRA ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY REFORM ACT Generation Transmission Supply Distribution MERALCO’S CORE BUSINESS Highly Defensive Core Promising Investments in Solid Company Risk Reward Analysis Distribution Business Power Generation Financials CORE DISTRIBUTION BUSINESS HIGHLY DEFENSIVE BUSINESS DISTRIBUTION WHEELING REVENUE VOLUME PRICE Virtual monopoly in Metro Maximum Average Price (MAP) Manila and parts of Luzon via Performance-Based Regulation (PBR) Recovery of capital expenditures Luzon Recovery of operating expenses Return on capital Adjusted annually for inflation and foreign currency fluctuation Visayas Source: Meralco 2012 Annual Report Source: Rules for Setting Distribution Wheeling Rates, 2006 Highly Defensive Core Promising Investments in Solid Company Risk Reward Analysis Distribution Business Power Generation Financials CORE DISTRIBUTION BUSINESS STRONG OPERATING RESULTS Distribution Wheeling Revenue 60 Solid Topline 22% CAGR Growth 50 40 illions 30 PHP B PHP 20 10 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Company data Highly Defensive Core Promising Investments in Solid Company Risk Reward Analysis Distribution Business Power Generation Financials CORE DISTRIBUTION BUSINESS STRONG OPERATING RESULTS Operating Income 60 Solid Topline 36% CAGR Growth 50 Growing Profitability 40 and Cash Flows illions 30 PHP B PHP 20 10 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Company data Highly Defensive Core Promising Investments in Solid Company Risk Reward Analysis Distribution Business Power Generation Financials CORE DISTRIBUTION BUSINESS STRONG OPERATING RESULTS Operating Cash Flows 60 Solid Topline Growth 50 Growing Profitability 40 PHP 36 B and Cash Flows illions 30 PHP B PHP 20 10 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Company data Highly Defensive Core Promising Investments in Solid Company Risk Reward Analysis Distribution Business Power Generation Financials CORE DISTRIBUTION BUSINESS STRONG OPERATING RESULTS Current Ratio 1.8 Solid Topline 1.55 Growth 1.6 Growing Profitability 1.4 and Cash Flows 1.2 Improving Times 1.03 Liquidity 1.0 0.8 0.6 2009 2010 2011 2012 Highly Defensive Core Promising Investments in Solid Company Risk Reward Analysis Distribution Business Power Generation Financials CORE DISTRIBUTION BUSINESS STRONG OPERATING RESULTS Debt to Equity Ratio 1.0 Solid Topline Growth 0.8 Growing Profitability and Cash Flows 0.6 Improving Times 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 Liquidity 0.3 Low Reliance 0.2 On Debt 0.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 Highly Defensive Core Promising Investments in Solid Company Risk Reward Analysis Distribution Business Power Generation Financials CORE DISTRIBUTION BUSINESS STRONG OPERATING RESULTS Solid Topline Growth Growing Profitability and Cash Flows FLEXIBILITY Improving Liquidity TO FINANCE GROWTH Low Reliance On Debt Highly Defensive Core Promising Investments in Solid Company Risk Reward Analysis Distribution Business Power Generation Financials CORE DISTRIBUTION BUSINESS POSITIVE OUTLOOK IN CORE DISTRIBUTION GDP Growth 15% Continuing Trend for GDP Growth 12% China 9% PHL 7.2% 6% 3% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: World Bank Highly Defensive Core Promising Investments in Solid Company Risk Reward Analysis Distribution Business Power Generation Financials CORE DISTRIBUTION BUSINESS POSITIVE OUTLOOK IN CORE DISTRIBUTION Energy Sales Volume 50 Continuing Trend for 4% CAGR GDP Growth 40 Increasing Energy Sales Volume 30 ousands h T 20 Wh M 10 0 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F Highly Defensive Core Promising Investments in Solid Company Risk Reward Analysis Distribution Business Power Generation Financials CORE DISTRIBUTION BUSINESS POSITIVE OUTLOOK IN CORE DISTRIBUTION 4th Regulatory Period Building Blocks (PHP Billions) 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F Return on Capital 20.7 23.9 24.2 24.6 24.9 Continuing Trend for Operating Expenses 16.7 17.2 17.8 18.4 18.9 GDP Growth Regulatory Depreciation 6.3 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.6 Corporate Income Tax ----- Increasing Energy Sales Volume Other Taxes 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Prior Period Recoveries 6.3 - - - - Tariff Rates: MAP Gtd. Service Level 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Forecast Total ARR 50.5 52.2 53.5 54.8 56.3 Demand Forecast (GWh) 30.9 38.4 40.1 41.9 43.8 Raw MAP (PHP/kWh) 1.63 1.39 1.37 1.34 1.32 Adjusted MAP (PHP/kWh) 1.63 1.30 1.37 1.43 1.50 Highly Defensive Core Promising Investments in Solid Company Risk Reward Analysis Distribution Business Power Generation Financials CORE DISTRIBUTION BUSINESS POSITIVE OUTLOOK IN CORE DISTRIBUTION Operating Cash Flows 45 PHP 39 B Continuing Trend for 40 GDP Growth 35 Increasing Energy 30 Sales Volume illions 25 Tariff Rates: MAP 20 Forecast B PHP 15 10 5 0 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F Highly Defensive Core Promising Investments in Solid Company Risk Reward Analysis Distribution Business Power Generation Financials CORE DISTRIBUTION BUSINESS HIGHLY DEFENSIVE BUSINESS STRONG OPERATING CASH FLOWS POSITIVE OUTLOOK IN CORE DISTRIBUTION Discounted Free Cash Flow PHP 299.20 WACC of 10.8% ONE-YEAR TARGET PRICE Core Distribution Business Highly Defensive Core Promising Investments in Solid Company Risk Reward Analysis Distribution Business Power Generation Financials PHILIPPINE POWER INDUSTRY Generation Transmission Supply Distribution MERALCO’S CORE BUSINESS Highly Defensive Core Promising Investments in Solid Company Risk Reward Analysis Distribution Business Power Generation Financials PHILIPPINE POWER INDUSTRY Generation Transmission Supply Distribution TO STRENGTHEN THE CORE DISTRIBUTION Highly Defensive Core Promising Investments in Solid Company Risk Reward Analysis Distribution Business Power Generation Financials RETAIL BUSINESS STRENGTHENING THE CORE DISTRIBUTION Retail Profits PHP 299.20 1.2 ONE-YEAR TARGET PRICE PHP 1 B Core Distribution Business 1.0 0.8 illions 0.6 PHP B PHP 0.4 0.2 0.0 Highly Defensive Core Promising Investments in Solid Company Risk Reward Analysis Distribution Business Power Generation Financials RETAIL BUSINESS STRENGTHENING THE CORE DISTRIBUTION Retail Profits PHP 299.20 1.2 ONE-YEAR TARGET PRICE PHP 1 B Core Distribution Business 1.0 PHP 7.80 0.8 ONE-YEAR TARGET PRICE Retail Business illions 0.6 PHP B PHP 0.4 0.2 0.0 Highly Defensive Core Promising Investments in Solid Company Risk Reward Analysis Distribution Business Power Generation Financials RETAIL BUSINESS STRENGTHENING THE CORE DISTRIBUTION Retail Profits PHP 299.20 1.2 ONE-YEAR TARGET PRICE PHP 1 B Core Distribution Business 1.0 PHP 7.80 0.8 ONE-YEAR TARGET PRICE Retail Business illions 0.6 PHP B PHP 0.4 PHP 307.00 ONE-YEAR TARGET PRICE 0.2 Distribution Business 0.0 Highly Defensive Core Promising Investments in Solid Company Risk Reward Analysis Distribution Business Power Generation Financials PHILIPPINE POWER INDUSTRY Generation Transmission Supply Distribution PHP 307.00 ONE-YEAR TARGET PRICE Distribution Business Highly Defensive Core Promising Investments in Solid Company Risk Reward Analysis Distribution Business Power Generation Financials PHILIPPINE POWER INDUSTRY Generation Transmission Supply Distribution OPPORTUNITIES PHP 307.00 Meet market demand ONE-YEAR TARGET PRICE Minimize supplier dependence Distribution Business Enhance growth and profitability Highly Defensive Core Promising Investments in Solid Company Risk Reward Analysis Distribution Business Power Generation Financials GENERATION BUSINESS LOOMING POWER DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP Power Demand-Supply Forecast 30 Forecast Period 4.4%CAGR 25 Demand 20 Gap begins in 2016 ousands h 15 T Supply W M 10 5 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Source: Department of Energy Power Development Plan, last updated 2012 Highly Defensive Core Promising Investments in Solid Company Risk Reward Analysis Distribution Business Power Generation Financials GENERATION BUSINESS LOOMING POWER DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP 2019 Power Supply-Demand Gap 14 Demand: 12.0 Luzon 12 Supply: 10.7 10 Only 88% of demand 8 in Luzon is met ousands h T 6 W M 4 2 0 Luzon Visayas Mindanao Source: Department of Energy Power Development Plan, last updated 2013 Highly Defensive Core Promising Investments in Solid Company Risk Reward Analysis Distribution Business Power Generation Financials GENERATION BUSINESS TIMELY ENTRY INTO POWER GENERATION 3000 MW Wholly-Owned Subsidiary In Luzon by 2020 Redondo Peninsula Energy (RP) 600 MW, Coal,
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