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CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS Volume 16 Issue 3-4 2015 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS Journal of Social and Political Studies Published since 2000 Volume 16 Issue 3-4 2015 CA&CC Press® SWEDEN 1 Volume 16 FOUNDEDIssue 3-4 2015 AND PUBLISHEDCENTRAL ASIA AND THEBY CAUCASUS INSTITUTE INSTITUTE OF FOR CENTRAL ASIAN AND STRATEGIC STUDIES OF CAUCASIAN STUDIES THE CAUCASUS Registration number: 620720-0459 Registration number: M-770 State Administration for Ministry of Justice of Patents and Registration of Sweden Azerbaijan Republic PUBLISHING HOUSE CA&CC Press®. SWEDEN Registration number: 556699-5964 Journal registration number: 23 614 State Administration for Patents and Registration of Sweden E d i t o r i a l C o u n c i l Eldar Chairman of the Editorial Council ISMAILOV Tel./fax: (994 - 12) 497 12 22; E-mail: [email protected] Murad ESENOV Editor-in-Chief Tel./fax: (46) 70 232 16 55; E-mail: [email protected] Vladimer PAPAVA Deputy Editor-in-Chief Tel./fax: (995 - 32) 24 35 55; E-mail: [email protected] Jannatkhan Deputy Editor-in-Chief EYVAZOV Tel./fax: (994 - 12) 596 11 73; E-mail: [email protected] Kalamkas represents the journal in Kazakhstan (Astana) YESSIMOVA Tel./fax: (7 - 701) 7408600; E-mail: [email protected] Ainura represents the journal in Kyrgyzstan (Bishkek) ELEBAEVA Tel./fax: (996 - 312) 61 30 36; E-mail: [email protected] Saodat OLIMOVA represents the journal in Tajikistan (Dushanbe) Tel.: (992 372) 21 89 95; E-mail: [email protected] Farkhad represents the journal in Uzbekistan (Tashkent) TOLIPOV Tel.: (9987 - 1) 225 43 22; E-mail: [email protected] Ziya KENGERLI represents the journal in Azerbaijan (Baku) Tel.: (+994 - 50) 3006694; E-mail: [email protected] David represents the journal in Armenia (Erevan) PETROSYAN Tel.: (374 - 10) 56 88 10; E-mail: [email protected] Kakhaber ERADZE represents the journal in Georgia (Tbilisi) Tel.: (+995 - 95) 45 82 88; E-mail: [email protected] Sun ZHUANGZHI represents the journal in China (Beijing) Tel.: (86) 10-64039088; E-mail: [email protected] Konrad SCHÄFFLER represents the journal in Germany (Munich) Tel.: (49 - 89) 3003132; E-mail: [email protected] Vladimir MESAMED represents the journal in the Middle East (Jerusalem) Tel.: (972 - 2) 5882332; E-mail: [email protected] Irina EGOROVA represents the journal in the Russian Federation (Moscow) Tel.: (7 - 495) 3163146; E-mail: [email protected] Robert represents the journal in the U.S. (Buffalo, NY) GUANG TIAN Tel: (716) 880-2104; E-mail: [email protected] Rustem represents the journal in Ukraine (Kiev) ZHANGUZHIN Tel.: (380 - 44) 524-79-13; E-mail: [email protected] 2 CENTRAL ASIA AND THEE CAUCASUSD I T O R I A L B O A R DVolume 16 Issue 3-4 2015 Akif ABDULLAEV Ph.D. (Economy), Senior Research Fellow, Institute of Strategic Studies of the Caucasus (Azerbaijan) Bülent ARAS Doctor, Chair, Department of International Relations, Fatih University (Turkey) Mariam ARUNOVA Ph.D. (History), leading research associate, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences (Russia) Garnik ASATRIAN D.Sc. (Philology), Professor, Head of the Department of Iranian Studies, Erevan State University (Armenia) Mustafa AYDIN Rector of Kadir Has University (Turkey) Svante E. CORNELL Professor, Research Director, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Silk Road Studies Program, Johns Hopkins University-SAIS (U.S.A.) William FIERMAN D.Sc. (Political Science), Professor of Indiana University (U.S.A.) Paul GOBLE Senior Advisor, Voice of America (U.S.A.) Sergey GRETSKY Doctor, Chair of Central Asian Studies, Foreign Service Institute, U.S. Department of State (U.S.A.) Xing GUANGCHENG D.Sc. (Political Science), Professor, Deputy Director of the Institute for East European, Russian and Central Asian Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (China) Alexander IGNATENKO President, Institute of Religion and Politics, Doctor of Philosophy, specialist in Islamic studies, leading expert of the Institute of Social Systems, Moscow State University, member of the Council for Cooperation with Religious Associations under the Russian Federation President (Russia) Ashurboi IMOMOV Ph.D. (Law), Assistant Professor, Head of the Department of Constitutional Law, Tajik National University (Tajikistan) Stephen F. JONES Professor, Russian and Eurasian Studies, Mount Holyoke College (U.S.A.) Lena JONSON Doctor, senior researcher, Swedish Institute of International Affairs (Sweden) Klara KHAFIZOVA D.Sc. (History), Director, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Professor at the International Relations and Foreign Policy Department, Kainar University (Kazakhstan) Zaynidin KURMANOV D.Sc. (History), Professor, Head of the Chair of International Relations, the Kyrgyz-Russian University (Kyrgyzstan) Jacob M. LANDAU Professor of Political Science, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (Israel) S. Neil MACFARLANE Professor, Director, Center for International Studies, The University of Oxford (Great Britain) Alexei MALASHENKO D.Sc. (History), Professor, Scholar-in-Residence, Ethnicity and Nation-Building Program Co-Chair, The Carnegie Moscow Center (Russia) Abbas MALEKI Doctor, Director General, International Institute for Caspian Studies (Iran) Akira MATSUNAGA Doctor, History of Central Asia and the Caucasus, Program Officer, The Sasakawa Peace Foundation (Japan) Roger N. McDERMOTT Affiliated Senior Analyst, Danish Institute for International Studies, Copenhagen (Denmark) Roin METREVELI D.Sc. (History), Professor, Academician of the Georgian National Academy of Sciences, President of the National Committee of Georgian Historians (Georgia) Nazim MUZAFFARLI D.Sc. (Economy), Professor, Director, Institute of Economy, Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences (Azerbaijan) Vitaly NAUMKIN D.Sc. (History), Professor, Director, Center for Strategic and International Studies of RF (Russia) Yerengaip OMAROV Professor, Rector of Kainar University, President of the Academy of Natural Sciences, Republic of Kazakhstan (Kazakhstan) Avtandil SILAGADZE D.Sc. (Economy), Professor, Tbilisi University of International Relations, Full Member of the Georgian National Academy of Sciences (Georgia) S. Frederick STARR Professor, Chairman, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, The Johns Hopkins University (U.S.A.) James V. WERTSCH Professor, Director of the International and Regional Studies Program, Washington University in St. Louis (U.S.A.) Alla YAZKOVA D.Sc. (History), Professor, head of the Mediterranean-Black Sea Center, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences (Russia) Stanislav ZHUKOV D.Sc. (Economy), Senior Researcher, Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Russia) The materials that appear in the journal do not necessarily reflect the Editorial Board and the Editors’ opinion Editorial Office: CA&CC Press AB, Hubertusstigen 9. 97455 Luleå, SWEDEN WEB ADDRESS: http://www.ca-c.org © Central Asia and the Caucasus, 2015 © CA&CC Press®, 2015 3 Volume 16 Issue 3-4 2015 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS Journal of Social and Political Studies Volume 16 Issue 3-4 2015 IN THIS ISSUE: NATION-BUILDING Nikolay POTENTIALS AND LIMITS OF POLITICAL COMPETITION: Borisov. INSTITUTIONAL TRANSFORMATIONS IN GEORGIA AND ARMENIA IN THE 2000S .................................. 7 Ali POLITICAL ELITES IN THE CONTEXT OF Salgiriev. THE ETHNOPOLITICAL PROCESSES IN THE NORTHERN CAUCASUS ................................................. 25 Kenan THE NATIONAL IDEA AND NATIONAL IDEOLOGY Allahverdiev. IN THE SUSTAINABILITY OF ETHNOCULTURAL IDENTITY ...... 32 Beka THE GEORGIAN POLITICAL ELITE: Chedia. MAIN TRENDS OF ITS CIRCULATION ........................................ 42 Asyl POLITICAL CLANS OF KYRGYZSTAN: Bolponova. PAST AND PRESENT ................................................................... 50 ENERGY POLICY AND ENERGY PROJECTS Sergey THE GREAT OIL AND GAS ROAD: Zhiltsov. FIRST RESULTS AND PROSPECTS ............................................ 63 Valeria “THE GAS PIPELINE WAR”: Gandzhumian. ON SEVERAL GEOPOLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE TANAP AND TURKISH STREAM PROJECTS ...................... 73 4 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS Volume 16 Issue 3-4 2015 REGIONAL INTEGRATION Chinara Esengul, Sheradil Baktygulov, Asel Doolotkeldieva, PROSPECTS FOR REGIONAL COOPERATION Bermet Imanalieva. IN CENTRAL ASIA AS SEEN TODAY ........................................... 82 Rashid TAJIKISTAN-CHINA: Abdullo. TWENTY-FIVE YEARS OF DIRECT RELATIONS ........................ 93 GEOPOLITICS AND REGIONAL SECURITY Parviz THE “RUSSIAN IDEA” VS. THE “AMERICAN DREAM”: Mullojanov. “SOFT ARM WRESTLING” IN THE CIS ..................................... 108 Rouben THE DIPLOMACY OF QUALIFYING INDUSTRIAL ZONES. Shougarian. An Alternative Scenario of American Brokerage between Armenia and Turkey ...................................................... 116 Fareed THE EVER-CHANGING DYNAMIC OF CONFLICTS Shafee. IN GEORGIA: THE INTERPLAY BETWEEN INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL FACTORS ....................................................... 127 REGIONAL ECONOMIES Ilkin GOVERNMENT BUDGET REVENUES IN AZERBAIJAN: Aslanov. THE TAX BURDEN AND THE ROLE OF THE OIL FACTOR ...... 137 Vakhtang GEORGIA: PROBLEMS OF Burduli. INCREASING NATIONAL ECONOMIC SELF-SUFFICIENCY (Sectoral-Structure Aspect) .......................................................... 155 Vladimir Paramonov, CHINA IN THE OIL AND Alexei Strokov. GAS BRANCH OF TURKMENISTAN .......................................... 176 RELIGION IN SOCIETY Nurgul KYRGYZSTAN’S ISLAMIC REFERENCE
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  • Elections in the Eastern Neighbourhood After the Renewed European Neighbourhood Policy

    Elections in the Eastern Neighbourhood After the Renewed European Neighbourhood Policy

    193 EU-RUSSIA PAPER • MARCHJUNE 2014 2012 ElectionsFrom Separate in the PoliciesEastern Neighbourhoodto Dialogue? Natural after Gas, theOil andrenewed Electricity European on Neighbourhoodthe Future Agenda Policy of MailiEU-Russia VILSON Energy Relations Pami AALTO CEURUS Doctoral Fellow CentreJean Monnet for EU-Russia Professor, Studies Director, Jean UniversityMonnet Centre of Tartu of Excellence on European Politics and European-Russian Relations, University of Tampere The Centre for EU-Russia Studies (CEURUS) is a multidisciplinary centre for research and teaching at the University of Tartu, Estonia. It serves as a contact point for scholars, students and experts who share an interest in the evolving relationship between the European Union and the Russian Federation. CEURUS coordinates and sponsors a variety of activities related to research, teaching and public out- reach in the area of EU-Russia relations. For more information, see http://ceurus.ut.ee The Centre for EU-Russia Studies undertakes quality control in editing its publica- tions. However, the opinions expressed in the Centre’s publications are those of the authors and contributors, and do not necessarily refl ect those of CEURUS, the University of Tartu or the organization to which the authors are affi liated. Published articles may be works in progress and CEURUS will not prevent their subsequent publication in an academic journal or a book. Suggested format for citing this paper: Vilson, M. (2014), ‘Elections in the Eastern Neighbourhood after the renewed European Neighbourhood Policy’, CEURUS EU-Russia Papers, No. 19. Centre for EU-Russia Studies, University of Tartu http://ceurus.ut.ee Editor: Martin Mölder Cover design: Kalle Paalits Layout: Tiia Ilus Copyright: authors, University of Tartu, 2014 ISSN 2228-1282 University of Tartu Press www.tyk.ee ELECTIONS IN THE EASTERN NEIGHBOURHOOD AFTER THE RENEWED EUROPEAN NEIGHBOURHOOD POLICY ABSTRACT In 2012, parliamentary elections took place in four out of six Eastern neighbourhood countries.