Elucidating Stakeholder Perspectives with Regards to Scenario Design and Formulating Agent Decision Rules: Methodologies and Results

ELUCIDATING STAKEHOLDER PERSPECTIVES WITH REGARDS TO SCENARIO DESIGN AND FORMULATING AGENT DECISION RULES: METHODOLOGIES AND RESULTS. VOLUME 1: MAIN REPORT

Deliverable no. D2.2

Partners: UNEW, IAMO,UZEI, UNWE, AFSZ, Cemagref

Submission date: 8-Feb-10 Final version: 28-Jan-11

Seventh Framework Programme Theme 6 (ENV-2007-1)

Environment (including climate change)

Collaborative project (Small or medium-scale focused research project) Grant agreement no. : 212345 Project duration: November 2008 - - November 2011 Contract no. 212345 | Deliverable no. D2.2 | 28/01/11

PRIMA aims to develop a method for scaling down the analysis of policy impacts on multifunctional land uses and on the economic activities. The scoped policies will include the cohesion policy (ERDF, ESF, CF), the enlargement process (IPA) & the rural development policy (EAFRD) of the European Commission, with a special focus on agriculture, forestry, tourism, and eco- system services. The approach will: rely on micro-simulation and multi- agents models, designed and validated at municipality level, using input from stakeholders; address the structural evolution of the populations (appear- ance, disappearance and change of agents) depending on the local conditions for applying the structural policies on a set of municipality case studies. In- volving eleven partners, the project is coordinated by Cemagref.

Email: [email protected] & [email protected]

Internet: https://prima.cemagref.fr

Authors of this report and contact details

Name: Marian Raley Partner acronym: UNEW Address: Centre for Rural Economy School of Agriculture Food and Rural development, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom, NE1 7RU E-mail: [email protected]

Name: Plamen Mishev Partner acronym: UNWE Address: Business Faculty Department Natural Resources Economics Student Town “Hristo Botev” Sofia 1700, Bulgaria E-mail: [email protected]

Name: Ramona Franić Partner acronym: AFSZ Address: University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology. Svetosimunska c. 25. Zagreb, Croatia. E-mail: [email protected]

Name: Milos Delín Partner acronym: UZEI Address: Ústav zemědělské ekonomiky a informací Oddělení lidských zdrojů na venkově Kotlářská 53 602 00 BRNO E-mail: [email protected]

Elucidating stakeholder perspectives with regards to scenario design and formulating agent decision rules: methodologies and results. Volume 1: main report 2/137 Contract no. 212345 | Deliverable no. D2.2 | 28/01/11

Names: Amanda Sahrbacher, Arlette Ostermeyer, Agata Dobruchowski Partner acronym: IAMO Address: Theodor-Lieser-Str. 2 06120 Halle/Saale Germany E-mail: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]

Name: Nadine Turpin Partner acronym: Cemagref Address: UMR 1273 Métafort, 24 Avenue des Landais, BP 50085 F-63172 AUBIERE Cedex, France E-mail: [email protected]

If you want to cite a Public Deliverable that originally was meant for use within the project only, please make sure you are allowed to disseminate or cite this report. If so, please cite as follows:

Marian Raley, Amanda Sahrbacher, Arlette Ostermeyer, Agata Dobruchowski, Plamen Mishev, Hristina Harizanova, Zornitza Stoyanova, Ramona Franić, Mario Njavro, Marija Romic, Miloš Delín, Marta Konecna, Jean-Paul Bousset, Olivier Aznar, Myriam Gomez, Eric Perret, Nadine Turpin 2011. Elucidating stakeholder perspectives with regards to scenario design and formulating agent decision rules: methodologies and results. Volume 1: main report PD no. D2.2 PRIMA collaborative project, EU 7th Framework Programme, contract no. 212345, https://prima.cemagref.fr, 137 p.

DISCLAIMER

“This publication has been funded under the PRIMA collaborative project, EU 7th Framework Programme, Theme 6 (ENV 2007-1) Environment (including climate change) European Commission, DG Research, contract no. 212345. Its content does not represent the official position of the European Commission and is entirely under the responsibility of the authors.”

“The information in this document is provided as is and no guarantee or war- ranty is given that the information is fit for any particular purpose. The user thereof uses the information at its sole risk and liability.”

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive summary ...... 12

1 Introduction ...... 13

1.1 Objectives, and relationship to the Description of Work (DoW) ...... 13

1.2 Introduction to Scenario Design ...... 13

1.3 Developing scenarios ...... 16

1.4 Scenario design in PRIMA ...... 18

2 BULGARIAN PILOT CASE STUDY AREA ...... 23

2.1 Description of the Bulgarian case study area ...... 23

2.2 Developing the BG questionnaire ...... 23

2.3 Results of the BG interviews: Introductory questions ...... 28

2.4 Importance of policy outcomes ...... 29

2.5 Environmental policy goals ...... 31

2.6 Social policy goals ...... 35

2.7 Economic policy goals ...... 38

2.8 Conclusions for the BG study area...... 41

3 CROATIAN PILOT CASE STUDY AREA ...... 45

3.1 Description of the Croatian case study area ...... 45

3.2 The Croatian Questionnaire ...... 46

3.3 Results of the Croatian interviews: introductory questions ...... 48

3.4 Importance of policy outcomes in the Croatian case ...... 48

3.5 Current policy measures for delivering the most important outcomes 50

3.6 Conclusions for the Croatian study area ...... 52

4 CZECH REPUBLIC PILOT CASE STUDY AREA ...... 58

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4.1 Description of the CZ case study area ...... 58

4.2 The CZ Questionnaire ...... 60

4.3 Results of the CZ interviews: Introductory questions ...... 62

4.4 Importance of policy outcomes ...... 64

4.5 Environmental policy goals ...... 67

4.6 Social policy goals ...... 68

4.7 Economic policy goals ...... 70

4.8 Conclusions for CZ case study area ...... 73

5 GERMAN PILOT CASE STUDY AREA ...... 77

5.1 Description of the German case study area ...... 77

5.2 The Altmark Questionnaire ...... 79

5.3 Results of the Altmark interviews: Introductory questions...... 82

5.4 Importance of policy outcomes ...... 86

5.5 Competitiveness in agriculture and forestry ...... 88

5.6 Environment and landscapes ...... 91

5.7 Conclusions for the Altmark case study area ...... 98

5.8 Annex to Chapter 5: Policy documents...... 102

6 UNITED KINGDOM PILOT CASE STUDY AREA ...... 103

6.1 Description of the UK case study area ...... 103

6.2 The UK Questionnaire ...... 104

6.3 Results of the UK interviews: Introductory questions ...... 105

6.4 Environmental policy goals ...... 109

6.5 Social policy goals ...... 112

6.6 Economic policy goals ...... 113

6.7 Conclusions for UK study area ...... 115

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6.8 Annexes for chapter 6 ...... 118

7 FRENCH PILOT CASE STUDY AREA ...... 123

7.1 Description of the French case study area ...... 103

7.2 The French Questionnaires ...... 104

7.3 Results of the French interviews: introductory questions ...... 103

7.4 Importance of policy outcomes ...... 104

7.5 Capacity of measures to deliver policy outcomes ...... 103

7.6 Economic policy goals ...... 104

7.7 Environmental policy goals ...... 103

7.8 Social policy goals ...... 104

7.9 Conclusions for the French study area ...... 103

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1 | Scenario development combining participatory methods and computer modelling ...... 20

Fig. 2 | Main causes and implications of development in case study municipalities ...... 64

Figure 3 | Boxplot of the cluster group 3 (DE) ...... 79

Figure 4 | cluster analysis of the municipalities in Auvergne ...... 79

Figure 5 | selected groups of municipalities for interviews in Auvergne ...... 79

Fig. 6 | Degree of interest versus degree of influence of surveyed stakeholders in Auvergne ...... 79

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1 | List of goals and measures ...... 24

Table 2 | Interviewees in the Svishtov municipality (BG) ...... 27

Table 3 | Interviewees in the Elena municipality (BG) ...... 27

Table 4 | Rating of policy goals in the BG case study area ...... 30

Table 5 | Perceived capacity of environmental measures to deliver policy goals in the BG Case study area ...... 31

Table 6 | Perceived capacity of social measures to deliver policy goals in the BG Case study area ...... 36

Table 7 | Perceived capacity of economic measures to deliver policy goals in the BG Case study area ...... 38

Table 8 | Policy measures able to deliver policy goals, Bulgaria Case study area .. 41

Table 9 | Rating of policy goals in the Croatian case study area ...... 49

Table 10 | Policy outcomes and supporting policy measures ...... 50

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Table 11 | Perceived capability of measures to deliver policy goals in the Croatian study area ...... 51

Table 12 | Interviewees in the CZ case study area ...... 61

Table 13 | Rating of policy goals in the CZ case study area ...... 65

Table 14 | Perceived capacity of environmental measures to deliver policy goals in the CZ case study area ...... 67

Table 15 | Perceived capacity of social measures to deliver policy goals in the CZ case study area ...... 69

Table 16 | Perceived capacity of economic measures to deliver policy goals in the CZ case study area ...... 71

Table 17 | Policy measures able to deliver policy goals, CZ case study area ...... 75

Table 18 | Summary statistics on Cluster 3 ...... 78

Table 19 | Objectives defined at the German level for rural development...... 81

Table 20 | Interviewees in the Altmark case study area ...... 82

Table 21 | Mean ratings of policy goals in the Altmark ...... 87

Table 22 | Perceived capacity of measures to achieve more competitiveness in agriculture and forestry in the Altmark ...... 89

Table 23 | Perceived capacity of measures to achieve the improvement of environment and landscapes in the Altmark ...... 92

Table 24 | Perceived capacity of measures to improve quality of life in rural areas and provide possibilities for diversification the Altmark ...... 95

Table 25 | Policy measures able to deliver policy goals, German Case study area 98

Table 26 | Interviewees in the UK Case study area ...... 105

Table 27 | Rating of the importance of policy goals in the UK Case study area ..108

Table 28 | Perceived capability of environmental measures to deliver policy goals in the UK Case study area ...... 110

Table 29 | Perceived capacity of social measures to deliver policy goals in the UK Case study area ...... 112

Table 30 | Perceived capacity of economic measures to deliver policy goals in the UK Case study area ...... 113

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Table 31 | Policy measures able to deliver environmental policy goals, UK Case study area ...... 116

Table 32 | Policy measures able to deliver social policy goals, UK Case study area ...... 117

Table 33 | Policy measures able to deliver economic policy goals, UK Case study area ...... 117

Table 34 | Interviewees in the French case study area ...... 98

Table 35 | Rating of the importance of the policy goals in the Auvergne case study ...... 116

Table 36 | Perceived capability of measures to deliver policy goals in the Auvergne case study – balanced land management ...... 117

Table 37 | Perceived capability of economic measures to deliver policy goals in the Auvergne case study ...... 117

Table 38 | Perceived capability of environmental measures to deliver policy goals in the Auvergne case stud ...... 98

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General information

Task(s) code(s): D2.2

Input from (Task codes): D2.3, D3.3, Task 2.2.1, Task 2.2.2

Output to (Task codes): D2.3, D3.3

Related milestones: M2.1.4; M2.2.1

CONTACTS

Marian Raley UNEW Centre for Rural Economy, School of Agriculture, Food and Rural Develop- ment, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK [email protected]

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A scenario may be defined as:

„a description of how the future may unfold based on ‟if-then‟ propositions, and typically consists of a representation of an initial situation and a description of the key driving forces and changes that lead to a particular future state‟ (Alcamo and Henrichs, 2008).

Scenarios may be expressed qualitatively, by means of a narrative or storyline, or quantitatively, commonly making use of modelling outputs. Alterna- tively, as will be the case for PRIMA, they may be a hybrid of both approaches producing a final scenario which consists of a step-by-step storyline and quantification of the resulting changes.

This deliverable sets out a generic method for scenario development which follows several stages: identification of a focal issue for study; defining the system in which the issue exists, including its driving forces; identifying possible evolutions of the system; building scenarios or dynamic stories describing the evolutions; testing the scenarios, in particular their plausibility; and policy screening by which policies are tested, analysed and created. There is increasing acceptance that stakeholders can improve scenario development with respect to scenario relevance, credibility and legitimacy and consequently stakeholder inputs will be sought at several stages.

At the pre-modelling stage, stakeholder interviews were conducted early in 2010 in one case study area (municipality) per participating member state. This identified driving forces, relevant policy areas and, by considering the successful working (or otherwise) of policy measures, gained an insight into agent behaviour. This information will allow researchers to develop narratives, with agent decisions explicitly included, which will be validated with stakeholders prior to quantification.

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1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Objectives, and relationship to the Description of Work (DoW)

This deliverable considers stakeholder engagement in the pre-modelling stage of PRIMA corresponding to Step 2 of Work Package 2 (WP2) objectives. That is:

‘Pre-model engagement with stakeholders in terms of scenario design and formulating agent decision rules for agent-based models’ (DOW, p34)

D2.1 addressed the wide-ranging Task 2.1.2 (DOW, p35), specifically to

‘Identify role of stakeholders regarding scenario design in terms of the nature and extent of input they can have into this process’

And to: ‘Identify role of stakeholders in terms of formulating agent decision rules’. D2.2 contributes to the achievement of Task 2.2.1:

‘ Determine the most appropriate ethnographic approach(es) to elucidate stakeholder perspectives with regards to scenario design and formulating agent decision rules and the procedures that should underpin such approaches like grounded theory’. and contributes to Task 2.2.2: „Interact with stakeholders using the approach(es) selected in T2.2.1.’ Moreover D2.2 anticipates Step 3 of WP2 objectives, namely: ‘On-model engagement with stakeholders mirroring agent- based models’

D2.2 provides an overview of scenario characteristics and typologies, including the distinction between qualitative, quantitative and hybrid scenarios. It then considers a generic method for scenario design and the possible contri- butions of stakeholders. It goes on to set out a hybrid approach for use in PRIMA whereby stakeholder perceptions are used in the creation (by researchers) of „storylines‟ and agent decision rules, and their subsequent improvement and validation.

1.2 Introduction to Scenario Design

1.2.1 What is a scenario?

Scenario design is a key component of scenario analysis, a tool developed to deal with uncontrollable uncertainty in strategic decision-making. Scenario analysis originated in US military planning during World War 2, and was

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adapted as a business planning tool by Herman Kahn in the 1960s. (Mah- moud et al, 2009). More recently its scope has widened and it has been used for examining environmental problems (IUCC), biological conservation planning (Peterson et al, 2003), land use change (Alcamo et al, 2006; Kok, 2006) and sustainable development (Rotmans et al, 2000). As well as dealing with uncertainty, scenario analysis provides a means for dealing with complex, multi-faceted problems such as those crossing social, economic, environmental and institutional dimensions.

Definitions of „scenario‟ frequently are centred on the description of possible future states as, for example, that used by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):

„A scenario is a coherent, internally consistent and plausible description of a possible future state of the world. It is not a forecast; rather it is one alternative image of how the future can unfold‟ (cited in Mahmoud et al, 2009).

Similarly, Godet (2006) proposes:

„A scenario is simply a means to represent a future reality in order to shed light on current action in view of possible and desirable futures‟.

However, other definitions focus on the description of developments rather than the end-state (Börjeson et al, 2006). For example:

„Scenarios are hypothetical sequences of events, constructed for the purpose of focusing attention on causal processes and decision points‟ (Rotmans et al, 2000, after Kahn, 1967).

Alcamo and Henrichs (2008) propose the following working definition:

„A scenario is a description of how the future may unfold based on ‟if-then‟ propositions and typically consists of a representation of an initial situation and a description of the key driving forces and changes that lead to a particular future state‟.

Scenarios are developed for a range of purposes. Scenario planning is most commonly driven by decision-makers (both in business and public policy) with a particular set of concerns and objectives in mind (Mahmoud et al, 2009). They commonly aim to better understand and manage risks. A scenario can be „a testbed through which an area of policy is considered and judged‟ (van der Heide, 2006), from which more resilient policies may emerge, which are less susceptible to failure in the event of surprises or local variation (Peterson et al, 2003).

The scenario development process does not always aim to produce consensus or robust policy. It provides a means of knowledge generation through the articulation of the knowledge and concerns of people from a range of back- grounds (Fuller-Love et al, 2006). Moreover, participative techniques can lead to awareness- raising for an issue (Carlsson-Kanyama et al, 2008).

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1.2.2 Characteristics of scenarios

Scenarios possess several basic characteristics (Rotmans et al, 2000; Alcamo, 2001). Scenarios are:

Hypothetical Describe dynamic processes in a series of step-wise changes Consist of states, driving forces, events, consequences and actions which are causally related. These are frequently expressed as a storyline, or narrative description which highlights the relationships between the scenario‟s driving forces and its main features. Start from an initial state or base year (usually the present), depicting a final state at a fixed time horizon.

1.2.3 Types of scenario

In distinguishing between scenario types, a key determinant is the degree of change (from the present) which is encompassed . Broadly, „business as usual‟ scenarios extrapolate current trends forward, whereas „alternative‟ scenarios „stretch‟ thinking, challenge assumptions, and raise awareness of new or uncertain issues (van Notten et al, 2003).

Various rather similar typologies of scenarios exist, including probable, possible and preferable (Carlsson-Kanyama et al, 2008), predictive, exploratory, and normative (Borjeson et al, 2006), exploratory and anticipatory (Alcamo, 2001; Mahmoud et al, 2009) and descriptive and normative (Rotmans et al, 2000).

Probable (or predictive) scenarios ask the question „What will happen?‟ and often apply predictive methodologies such as trend extrapolations and fore- casting models. Possible (or explorative) scenarios seek to answer the question „What could happen?‟ They may encompass both changes in the underlying assumptions about the system in question, and consider the future if certain events or activities were to take place.

Preferable (or normative) futures are considered using normative approaches, and ask „What will the solution to the problem look like?‟ They focus on a particular desired future and commonly use the technique of back- casting to identify the means (which include technology and policy measures) by which it might be attained, starting from the present (Carlsson-Kanyama et al, 2008).

Quantitative and qualitative scenarios

Qualitative scenarios are those describing possible futures in words or images rather than numerically, commonly as narratives (or „storylines‟) or as end- stage descriptions. Well-written storylines are interesting and easily understood by a wide audience. They are commonly produced using participative techniques, can be produced in the absence of suitable data, can be very wide-ranging and encompass the views of many different experts (or stake-

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holders) at the same time (Alcamo, 2006). However, qualitative scenarios represent the mental maps of individuals and may lack transparency as underlying assumptions, judgements and preferences may not be made explicitly.

Quantitative scenarios, often based on computer models, have the advantages of generating quantitative information, often based on robust scientific knowledge. They are relatively transparent in that the assumptions made by modellers are stated explicitly, or implicitly, in the model equations (Alcamo et al, 2006). However the view of the future presented can be narrow and will omit any processes which cannot be modelled. They may be difficult for the non-technically minded to understand, and the use of numbers can give a misleading impression of their precision.

The distinction between the two is not clear-cut. Qualitative scenarios can be derived by formalised almost quantitative methods (as expounded by Michel Godet), while quantitative scenarios can be developed using imprecise numbers, gained for example from the numerical estimates of experts and fuzzy- set theory (Alcamo, 2008).

Since both methods offer benefits, they are often combined (e.g. Carlsson- Kanyama et al, 2008). Such techniques include the Story and Simula- tion(SAS) approach of Alcamo (2008).

1.3 Developing scenarios

1.3.1 A generic method

Peterson et al, 2003 provide a step-by-step account of scenario devel0pment which is summarised thus:

Step 1: Identify a focal issue for study.

Step 2: Define the system in which the issue exists, including (where appropriate) the environmental, social, economic, technological and institutional domains. It is necessary to identify both the variables which represent these elements and the drivers of change and their relationships with the system elements.1 Clear documentation of assumptions, internal structure and driving forces should be produced. (Alcamo, p155 not 2008)

1 The factor-actor-sector framework may help to identify a short list of variables for inclu- sion or themes for structuring scenarios (Rotmans et al, 2000). For PRIMA, sectors might include agriculture, forestry, transport and tourism; factors could include employment, environmental quality and equity; actors could be government bodies, businesses, land managers and non governmental organisations

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Mahmoud et al (2009) identify the following as important components in system definition:

a. the pre-determined elements (causal relationships or external conditions) that can be depended upon b. critical uncertainties in how the future unfolds c. key assumptions about how the system works d. the variables and situations which are important e. the spatial and temporal scales necessary for decision purposes.

Step 3: Identify alternative ways that the system could plausibly evolve, as a result of existing dynamics, uncertain driving forces, and possible future events. These alternatives provide the framework around which scenarios can be constructed.

Step 4: Building scenarios. At this stage the key alternatives are fleshed out into dynamic stories which can be clearly communicated and which link the present with hypothetical future events. Detailed quantitative and/or qualitative information reflecting the ultimate scenario outcomes is incorporated. Actor responses are hypothesised and key indicator variables are tracked.

Step 5: Testing scenarios for consistency. While simulation models can be used to test the dynamics of a scenario, examining the plausibility of the hypothesised behaviour of actors the most important test.

Step 6: Policy screening. Once the scenarios are created they can be used to test, analyse and create policies. The impacts of different policies on each scenario can be examined.

1.3.2 Stakeholder perspectives and scenario design.

Generating techniques will have an integral part in scenario development for generating and collecting ideas, knowledge, and views regarding some part of the future, and also in examining model structures, assumptions and results (Borjeson et al,2006). Clearly they will enhance all 6 stages identified in the previous section. Techniques include workshops, surveys, think tanks (expert panels) and the Delphi method , and the outputs may be described as participatory or expert scenarios (Rotmans et al, 2000). Expert scenarios are developed by a small group of technical experts, whereas participatory scenarios are developed using inputs from stakeholders, typically non-scientists, such as decision-makers, business people, and lay people.

There is broad agreement that there is increasing use of participatory methods for designing scenarios; that such methods enhance the breadth and richness of scenarios, and capture the full complexity of the system studied, thereby enhancing credibility amongst stakeholders for the scenarios.

Alcamo and Henrichs (2008) identify 4 main criteria for evaluating the quality of (environmental) scenarios: relevance; credibility; legitimacy, and creativity. Stakeholders can play a key role in establishing whether these criteria have been satisfied. By confirming that scenarios address the concerns and

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needs of targeted users, they establish their relevance. Credibility is established if the scenarios are deemed to be plausible, capture the full complexity of the system, are internally consistent, and have underlying assumptions of causality which are compatible with current understanding. Legitimate scenarios are fair and unbiased, and the scenario-building process will include appropriate inputs from relevant stakeholders, experts and scientific information, and avoid excluding voices which should be heard. Creativity is especially important if policymakers are considering „the big picture‟, and far- reaching, imaginative scenarios are necessary, rather than „business as usual‟.

An established approach in scenario studies was developed by the Shell oil company, an important practitioner of scenario planning for 3 decades. To explore developments external to itself it has developed a methodology whereby, through workshops, it involves stakeholders in idea generation and scenario building by brainstorming and then clustering ideas (Carlsson- Kanyama et al, (2008). Project researchers then conduct back-office work to develop scenarios along the main dimensions identified in the workshops. They also make quantitative estimates of key variables under the scenarios. A further participative workshop allows stakeholders to assess the scenarios and to discuss the policy measures which might be used to promote the desired development.

An approach which explicitly combines qualitative and quantitative techniques is the SAS (story-and simulation). Key parts of this approach include:

the development of qualitative storylines by a group of stakeholders and experts (the „scenario panel‟) the use of models to quantify the storylines interaction between stakeholders, scenario writers, modellers and other experts to refine the scenarios (Alcamo, 2001).

The availability of resources (time and money) will be important considera- tions in the choice of methodology. Repeated workshops, for example, are both costly and time-consuming to arrange.

1.4 Scenario design in PRIMA

In PRIMA, scenarios developed using stakeholder inputs will play an important role in model development and testing. As outlined in D3.3, past scenarios will be used for model calibration purposes. Future scenarios will provide a framework to investigate, develop and validate the model.

The scenarios will be developed at the geographical scale of the municipality, and relate to specific case study areas. They will consider the impacts of a policy intervention on a system. Such policies will emphasise either the environment, rural development, or infrastructure and competitiveness, these being the broad categories of scenario developed in D1.3. Scenarios will include both quantitative and qualitative elements. The proposed method sys- tematically follows 7 main steps.

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1. Identify factors which shape the place including its endowments (e.g. land quality, accessibility, population size, planning constraints) and drivers of change. Also gain insight into agent behaviour (possible response to policy) to help design hypothetical policies.

2. Identify the focal issues which are perceived to be of greatest importance in the area and which future policy might address and have a measurable impact upon. In the context of PRIMA, only the impact of various EU policies is under consideration.

3. Identify a hypothetical policy response to reach a desired end point and appropriate measures.

4. Develop at least 2 storylines describing the future (future without policy change; future with hypothesised policy change) and one scenario which is a past storyline. Agent behaviour will be included explicitly. Identify corresponding elements (variables, relationships) in the quantitative model and any underlying assumptions.

5. Validation of the storyline, for example by checking the plausibility of assumptions, actor behaviour and the outcome with stakeholders.

6. Final scenario consisting of a storyline and quantitative outputs from the modelling process.

7. Validation of the scenario (both quantitative and qualitative elements)

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Figure 1 | Scenario development combining participatory methods and computer modelling

Source: adapted from Verburg et al (2006)

Figure illustrates the position of these activities in relation to the overall scenario development process. Stakeholder engagement will occur at several steps. Following collection of contextual information from stakeholders (steps 1 to 3), PRIMA researchers will conduct „back office‟ work to produce storylines (step 4). These will be presented to stakeholders for validation (Step 5). Clearly, progress to stages 6 and 7 is dependent on the running of a satisfactory model. Figure 1 also captures the iterative nature of the process. For example adjustments to storylines, policy response and assumptions about agent behaviour may all be occur in the light of stakeholder criticism.

1.5 Pre-modelling questionnaire

In practice, these steps will be accomplished using two separate interactions with stakeholders. This section outlines the methodology which was adopted in pursuit of Steps 1 to 3 in advance of the on-model interactions. A generic questionnaire was developed and then adapted by project partners for their

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own pilot case study area. Guidance on questionnaire development and con- ducting the fieldwork was supplied and appears as Appendix 3 in a separate volume. The questionnaire‟s purpose was to gain insight into the underlying structure, drivers of change, focal issues, pertinent policies and likely effectiveness of policy measures in the area. A central part of the questionnaire was to elicit interviewees‟ perceptions of what policy objectives are relevant for the area. This was achieved by compiling a summary of current EU policy goals for the area from policy documents such as ERDF, ESF and EAFRD implementation plans, and asking respondents to score them for relevance. Such information will subsequently be used by „back office‟ PRIMA researchers to generate draft storylines prior to discussion with stakeholders and possible further development.

Interviews were conducted in one case study area per member state in early 2010. Two groups of stakeholders were identified:

GROUP A („policy officials‟): people who form the link between the municipality and the funding sources such as representatives of the institutions with responsibility for implementing local strategic plans or allocating funds, and other organisations with an overview such as officials of the forestry service, or the farmers union.

GROUP B (local informants‟): people who live in the municipality and have a „local‟ view of what is desirable for the area, such as elected local representatives, land-managers and others with a commercial interest such as hotel owners.

As a guide it was suggested that 3 members of each group were interviewed using face-to-face interviews for local informants and telephone or face-to- face interviews for policy officials.

The following outputs were expected from the interviews:

1. A description of the main processes and events which have occurred in the last 20 years (approximately) and which have shaped the municipality as it is today. These will inform the past scenarios whose purpose is described in D3.3.

2. A list of Policy Outcomes, with scores allocated by respondents to show their perceived desirability for the case study area (priorities) and contextual information to help explain these responses.

3. For the high priority outcomes, a table showing the current measures available under EU funding streams, and the perceptions of interviewees as to whether these measures have the capacity to deliver the desired outcomes in the case study area.

4. Where measures have been found inadequate, the reasons for expected failure.

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5. Proposals for changes to existing measures, or proposals for new measures which are expected to achieve the Policy Outcome.

6. A comparison of the perceptions of the 2 stakeholder groups: do „institutional‟ people have a different perception of the priorities and the likely effectiveness of policies from „local‟ people?

7. A list of current policy measures which a) contribute to the delivery of the desired policy outcomes; and b) are thought to be effective; and also a list of „improved‟ and new policy measures suggested by interviewees. This list will form the starting point for the development of a draft storyline, including policy response and hypothesised agent behaviour, which will subsequently be modified in the light of discussions with stakeholders.

The following chapters contain results from the individual project partners. Final questionnaires are provided in Appendices 1 to 6, along, and descriptive material relating to the Bulgarian case study area.

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2 BULGARIAN PILOT CASE STUDY AREA

2.1 Description of the Bulgarian case study area

The North-Central Planning Region is situated in the central part of Northern Bulgaria. It borders the Danube to the north, which marks the Bulgarian bor- der with Romania, the Iskar River to the west, the river of Rusenski Lom to the east and the Balkan Mountains to the south. It borders with all planning regions of the country: the Northeastern to the west, the Southwestern, the South-Central and the Southeastern to the south, and to the east with the Northerneastern Planning Region. The North-Central region consists of 5 districts: Veliko Turnovo, Gabrovo, Lovech, Pleven, Rousse. Detailed descriptions of the two case study sites is given in D2.2, Appendices.

2.2 Developing the BG questionnaire

The main policy goals are presented in the following strategic and planning documents:

Regional Development Plan of North Central Planning Region

Strategy for development of Veliko Tarnovo Re- gion (2007 -2013) Regional Strategic and Planning Documents Plan for development of Municipality of Svishtov (2007 – 2013)

Plan for development of Municipality of Elena (2007 – 2013)

Operational Programme “Environment”

Operational Programme “Development of Com- petitiveness of Bulgarian Economy 2007 -2013”

Operational Programme “Human Resources De- velopment”

Operational Programme “Transport” National Strategic and Operational Programme “Regional Develop- Planning Documents ment”

Rural Development Programme 2007- 2013

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The list of general objectives and measures listed in these documents was simplified regarding objectives and priorities on a regional and local level, and is shown in Table 1.

Table 1 | List of goals and measures Policy goals and related measures

Environmental Policy

Improving forest biodiversity through upgrading skills of employees in the sector

First forestation of non- agricultural lands Safeguard and improve biodiversity Restoring forestry potential and introducing preventive activities

Stimulation for farmers and those employed in forestry for conservation and preservation of habitats

First forestation of non- agricultural lands, safeguard/ creation of natural bush fence

Safeguard and improve landscape Preservation and protection of natural landscapes, game farms, natural parks, protected areas

Stimulations for farmers targeted to organic farming

Support for renewable energy generation (solar, wind, anaerobic digestion; growing biomass, woodfuel etc)

Assistance to SMEs in all sectors to encourage environmentally-friendly production e.g. adopting renewable energy, cleaner Reducing the causes and im- technology; establish environmental man- pacts of climate change agement systems

Help businesses to enter markets to recover energy from waste, or recycle it.

Promote business activities using energy produced from waste management and use of recycled materials and packaging

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Raising awareness of municipalities and local population for NATURA 2000

Sustainable use of resources in protected Water and soil conservation areas and protected zones

Construction of sewage treatment plants and landfills

Training of residents in rural areas on how to store and protect water and soil resources

Social Policy

Help to get economically inactive and unemployed people into own business, thereby reducing social exclusion.

Improve skills of employed people in rural areas (especially low paid) thereby increasing earning power and adaptability. Enhance opportunity in rural areas Support of business activities in rural regions to help expansion of existing enterprises/ farmers and increasing employment, or help to launch new ones

Improving of life style in rural regions/ construction of road network, social, educational and etc. structures

Renovation and rehabilitation of villages (renovation of public buildings)

Rehabilitation of public green areas (parks, gardens, playgrounds, etc.).

Improving living conditions in rural areas by Enhance quality of life in ru- improving the mobility of labour resources, ral areas. increasing the attractiveness for business development, improving infrastructure, access to services, etc.).

Protection and preservation of cultural and historical monuments (the construction of appropriate infrastructure to access them)

Economic Policy

Improve economy by im- Farm diversification into non-agricultural proving the competitiveness activities

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of farming, forestry and horticultural businesses Diversify of agricultural activities

Adding value to agricultural or forestry products. Developing new products

Support groups of Organization of producers

Support to lunch and develop of micro enterprises- possessing and marketing of agricultural products

Encouragement of tourists activities

Encouragement of local hand craft

Producing and change of Renewable energy

Improve productivity and adaptability by improving of employees in agriculture, forestry and tourism by skills and qualification

Support for SMES to increase innovation, access to knowledgment, expertise, business Improve economy by im- network and business incubators proving the competitiveness of businesses in other sectors Improve resilience and adaptation of firms by improving resource efficiency ( increase of their energy efficiency)

Improve skills of managers and owners in small businesses

Support for farm diversification

Support to create and grow micro- enterprises in manufacturing, tourism, services, trade Increase diversity of rural economy Modernization of agricultural holdings

Encouragement of tourism activities in rural areas (creation of new/ rebuild of existing building infrastructure, service marketing end etc.

The final questionnaire appears as Appendix 1.1.

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2.2.1 Questionnaire administration

A series of interviews were conducted with respect to the Elena and Svishtov study area in February- March2 2010, and resulted in a total of 20 completed questionnaires. Thirteen interviews were conducted with local residents, and seven with policy and other officials. All questionnaires were administered face-to-face, although the methodology allows for telephone interviews with policy officials.

Local informant interviewees were selected directly from the register of agricultural producers and lists of members of the farmers, tourism and forestry organisations in the study area. Policy officials were identified as staff members of the local authority and institutions who are professionally involved with the case study area.

Table 2 | Interviewees in the Svishtov municipality (BG) Interviewee type Description

1. Local resident Representative of Farmers organisation

2. Local resident Farmer

3. Local resident Tourism advisory representative

4. Local resident Representative of farmers branch organisation

5. Local resident Farmer

6. Local resident Tourism representative

7. Local resident Farmer/Tourism representative

8. Official Deputy mayor of Municipality

9. Policy Official Local SFA3 representative

10. Policy Official Forestry representative

Table 3 | Interviewees in the Elena municipality (BG) Interviewee type Description

1. Local resident Farmer

2. Local resident Farmer

3. Local resident Farmer

2 Because of bad weather condition the survey was prolonged. It started in January 2010 and continued in March 2010. 3 SFA=State Fund Agriculture

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4. Local resident Representative of Farmers Organisation

5. Local resident Tourism representative

6. Official Deputy mayor of Municipality

7. Policy Official Local SFA representative

8. Policy Official Representative of the tourism association

9. Official Forestry representative

10.Local Resident Farmer

2.3 Results of the BG interviews: Introductory questions

Over the last 20 years significant political, socio-economic and cultural changes appeared in Bulgaria. They had significant influence over regional development and people‟s behaviour. The society, both in urban and rural areas, faced new challenges – partly related to new economic conditions, and partly linked to individual characteristics as of necessity to acquire new skills and experience. During the last two decades two important reforms were completed – agrarian reform and structural reform in industry. They were pursued together with financial and trade reform, as well as social reform. New institutions appeared such as a labour market, land market, and capital market. The outputs of the reforms resulted in reinstatement of private ownership over land, forests and other assets, liquidation of socialist production structures in agriculture, privatization of structures in industry and other sectors, establishment of new structures in all sectors of economy. The reforms heavily influenced human capital. Due to privatization, restructuring and liquidation of enterprises a lot of employees become unemployed. In some places the unemployment rate reached 25-30 % without actual opportunities for jobs. The economic reforms sped up the migration processes. These processes were relevant for all regions but with differing impact.

2.3.1 Elena

Over the period 2004-2007 great progress in the municipality was observed. Public services have improved, and the effectiveness of the capacity of the municipality has increased. However, there was a lack of livelihoods for the welfare of the population. This is due to the factory closures in the municipality. According to respondents there is greater differentiation of the people's incomes than before 2000.

Reasons for changes in Elena municipality can be summarized as follows: new legislation (harmonisation to the EU); investments from national and European funds. Respondents see the current measures as the explanation for the positive and negative process in the Municipality of Elena. Last but not least, the processes in the Municipality are driven by demographic processes including declining birth rate, ageing of population and migration.

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2.3.2 Svishtov

Restructuring of the economy is a key issue in the municipality during the last 2o years. The economy is fragmented and dominated mostly by small companies. Some respondents believe that land ownership is not reconstructed in the best way. Some of the respondents still kept nostalgia to “old socialist times” and old style production structures. The market economy requires adaptiveness and entrepreneurship from individuals. For the ageing population to fulfil these requirements is difficult. Thus the cooperative farms are still the main production unit in the municipality. They are active in investment and, using opportunities of EU pre-accession funds and the ongoing Programme for Rural Development, they invest in new technology and equipment.

An increasing trend in unemployment is observed, mainly in the age group 20 – 40 years. This trend is interrupted in the period 2006-2009. In 2010, with another crisis in our country, processes of increasing unemployment are seen, as businesses in the municipality suspend their activities or reduce their production to a minimum. Another problem for the Municipality is population aging. The lack of people in the settlements resulted in a reduced number of educational centres and access to health care.

Monitor and improvement processes in the municipality‟s main city Svishtov show good urban infrastructure and access to services developing. At the same time, smaller and more remote villages are with poor infrastructure, which is expressed mainly in poor drainage systems and poor road networks. The main reasons for the situation of the municipality are due to the overall state of confusion during transition, and after it. In recent years the lack of clear government support for local businesses, not sufficiently effective reforms in education and social policy have lead to many problems in the Svishtov Municipality.

2.4 Importance of policy outcomes

Question 2.1 of the BG questionnaire asks respondents to rate the importance of key policy outcomes for the case study area. Table 4 shows the average scores given by each of the two target groups (policy officials and local residents) for each policy goal4

4 Scores denote the following: 1= In this area, this goal is of no importance 2=slightly important 3=quite important 4= definitely important 5= very important

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Table 4 | Rating of policy goals in the BG case study area

Local residents Policy officials

Policy goal Mean score Mean score Elena Svish- Aver- Elena Svish- Average 5 tov age tov Environment Safeguard and im- 4 4 4 5 5 5 prove biodiversity Safeguard and im- 4 3 5 5 5 5 prove landscape Reducing the causes 3 4 3 2 5 3 and impacts of climate change Water and soil con- 3 4 3 2 4 3 servation Social Enhance opportunity 5 4 5 5 4 4 in rural areas Enhance quality of life 5 4 4 4 4 4 in rural areas Economic Improve economy by 5 4 5 5 5 5 improving the competitiveness of land- based businesses Improve economy by 4 4 4 5 4 4 improving the competitiveness of businesses in other sectors Increase the diversity 3 4 3 4 3 3 of the rural economy

2.4.1 Elena municipality

According to the target group - policy official in Elena municipality all outcomes from policy goals are important. According to them the municipality hasn‟t enough investment opportunities and EU funds provide needed funding. One of the respondents believes that the most important are natural resources in the area and they must be preserved and stored. Respondents

5 Values are the average of all data collected by the respondents. The average is rounded to whole number.

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from the target group - local residents also believe that the desired outcomes of policies at regional level are important because they are priority.

2.4.2 Svishtov municipality

Most respondents in both target groups in the municipality of Svishtov gave high scores for the results of policies in ecological aspect at the regional level. This can be explained with the answers of respondents that the region has the capacity to achieve success in all environmental areas (biodiversity, water, soil, climate), such as presence of big river, the diversity of endangered plant and animal species. A large area with arable land is a prerequisite for development of this capacity. The high importance of goals related to the environment, according to respondents views, comes from the fact that biodiversity and conservation of natural resources are important for future genera- tions. For example, reducing the impact of climate change is of particular importance because of extreme seasonal climatic differences and frequent failures (cold, heat, high water of the Danube, heavy snow and rain). One of the respondents from the target group of policy officials believes that these results are important, because the municipality is rich with the presence of large areas of fertile agricultural land and this municipality‟s potential can be maximized by applying EU policies.

Respondents in Svishtov municipality rated highly the goals connected with the social sphere, because they are in opinion that the trend of population in rural areas is decreasing and there is a risk of depopulation, which requires access to more services.

Most of the respondents from target group – local residents valued highly economic policy goals, because the municipality has a potential for development. This would create financial resources and would reduce unemployment and improve the social environment and living standard of people.

Both target groups – local residents and policy officials in Elena municipality and in Svishtov municipality rate policy goals highly. Average rate is between 3 and 5.

2.5 Environmental policy goals

Table 5 displays the possible effectiveness of the measures which are available to support the policy goals shown in Table 1.

Table 5 | Perceived capacity of environmental measures to deliver policy goals in the BG Case study area

Policy goal and related meas- Capability6 Capability ures

6 1=not capable etc 2=mm 3=mm 4=mm 5=mm

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Mean score, Mean score, policy local residents official outcome = Safeguard and im- E7 S A E S A prove biodiversity

Improving forest biodiversity 4 3 4 5 2 3 through upgrading skills of employees in the sector

First forestation of non- agricultural 4 2 3 4 4 4 lands

Restoring forestry potential and 4 2 3 5 4 4 introducing preventive activities

Stimulations for farmers and those 4 3 4 5 3 4 employed in forestry for conservation and preservation of habitats outcome = Safeguard and improve landscape

First forestation of non- agricultural 3 2 3 2 2 2 lands, safeguard/ creation of natural bush fence

Preservation and protection of natu- 3 3 3 5 5 5 ral landscapes, game farms, natural parks, protected areas

Stimulations for farmers targeted to 4 4 4 5 5 5 organic farming outcome = Reducing the causes and impacts of climate change

Support for renewable energy gen- 4 4 4 4 4 4 eration (solar, wind, anaerobic digestion; growing biomass, woodfuel etc)

Assistance to SMEs in all sectors to 4 3 4 4 5 4 encourage environmentally-friendly production e.g. adopting renewable energy, cleaner technology; establish environmental management systems

7 E-Elena municipality, S – Svishtov municipality, A- Average

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Help businesses to enter markets to 4 4 4 5 5 5 recover energy from waste, or recycle it.

Promote business activities using 4 4 4 5 5 5 energy produced from waste management and use of recycled materials and packaging outcome = Water and soil conservation(3.3a)

Raising awareness of municipalities 4 2 3 4 3 3 and local population for NATURA 2000

Sustainable use of resources in pro- 4 4 4 5 3 4 tected areas and protected zones

Construction of sewage treatment 4 5 4 5 5 5 plants and landfills

Training of residents in rural areas 4 4 4 5 3 4 on how to store and protect water and soil resources

Some of the available measures were viewed by respondents as being unlikely to make any difference to the achievement of the policy goals, or of being inappropriate for the case study area, and are discussed further in Sections 1.5.1 to 1.5.4.

2.5.1 Safeguarding and improving biodiversity

Elena municipality

All the respondents in the Elena municipality give high rates for the measures connected with „Safeguard and improve biodiversity‟.

Svishtov municipality

With regard to the measure “Improving forest biodiversity through upgrading skills”, all respondents from both target groups give relatively low ratings, because they mean that there aren't very large forests. The measure “First forestation of non-agricultural lands” achieved low valuations because, according to respondent's opinion, there aren't such kind of lands in the municipality that can be first forest. One of the respondents believes that new measures are needed. Measure "Stimulations for farmers and those employed in forestry for conservation and preservation of habitats" receives high rates from the respondents from the target group – policy officials and they mean

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that much of the valuable species and communities fall in or may be influenced by private land users or private forest owners.

2.5.2 Safeguard and improve landscape

Elena municipality

The measure „Stimulation for farmers targeted to organic farming‟ receives high rates from both target groups. Some of the respondents explain that this is important because it leads to protecting of natural resources.

Svishtov municipality

The measure “First forestation of non- agricultural lands, safeguard/ creation of natural bush fence” is estimated low by respondents. They believe that fertile agricultural land is a wealth for the municipality and it is difficult to transform it to forests. Non-agricultural land is insufficient, fragmented and it is difficult to be afforested. The measure “Preservation and protection of natural sights, game farms, natural parks, protected areas” is important, because there are important assets to Europe in the region, such as nature landscapes, natural parks, protected areas of Natura 2000, especially around the village Vardim. The measure “Stimulations for farmers targeted to organic farming” is defined as important because on the one hand it would lead to improving the environment, and on the other hand it would lead to export production and economic revenue for local people. At the same time agriculture is the main livelihood of farmers.

2.5.3 Reducing the causes and impacts of climate change

Elena municipality

Respondents from both target groups in the Elena municipality rate highly the measures connected with the outcome „Reducing the causes and impact of climate change‟. Some of them explain the high rates for the measure „Support for renewable energy generation‟ with the decreasing dependance on petrol. They rate highly the measure „Help business activities using energy produced from waste, or recycle it‟ because they mean that this is a responsibility of the state and municipality, but these activities should be supported from European funds too.

Respondents from the first target group - policy officials - score highly the measure ”Support for renewable energy generation”.

Svishtov municipality

Respondents from the first target group - policy officials - highly rate the measure “Support for renewable energy generation”, because they believe that it should permanently reduce pollution and mainly carbon emissions. At the same time they are of the opinion that the municipality has the conditions to implement this measure. Both target groups give an average valuation for

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the measure “Assistance to SME in all sectors to encourage environmentally- friendly production”. They believe that the municipality has the human resource capacity of to implement this measure. The need for sustainable development and improving the social and environmental side are reasons for giving high rates to the measure “Help business to enter markets to recover energy from waste”. Some of them believe that this measure is important because the existing landfill is depleted. Respondents give a high valuation to the measure “Promote business activities using energy produced from waste management and use of recycled materials and packaging”.

2.5.4 Water and soil conservation

Elena municipality

High scores are given to the measures connected with the policy goal “Water and soil conservation”. Both target groups in Elena municipality are of the opinion that these measures are important. The measure “Raising awareness of municipalities and local population for NATURA 2000” is important because, according to respondents the information is a very important factor. The measure “Training of residents in rural areas on how to store and protect soil resources” receives high rates, because this leads to increasing the population‟s responsibility.

Svishtov municipality

Both groups of respondents give low estimates to the measure “Raising awareness of municipalities and local population for NATURA 2000” because, according to some of the respondents, the municipality does not fall within the Natura 2000, and protected areas are small. The measure "Sus- tainable use of resources in protected areas and protected zones" has high evaluations, because this is part of the nature of protected areas and Euro- pean policy. Measure "Construction of sewage treatment plants and landfills" gets high valuation, because without that measure the conservation of soil and water resources is impossible. It is important also because the municipality needs two treatment plants for waste water and for drinking water. The high valuation of the measure “Training of residents in rural areas on how to store and protect water and soil resources” can be explained with the replies of the respondents that without study of population, conservation of soil and water resources is impossible.

Both target groups in Elena municipality and in Svishtov municipality give high ratings to the environmental policy goals and connected measures. Most of the scores are between 3–5. Only the measure “First forestation of non-agricultural lands, safeguard/ creation of natural bush fence” achieves low average rates.

2.6 Social policy goals

Table 6 shows that, in the social domain, both policy outcomes have been identified by respondents as of great importance for Svishtov Municipality. It

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displays the possible effectiveness of the measures which are available in support of these policy goals. In the table are given average scores of the two groups of respondents in the two Municipalities.

Table 6 | Perceived capacity of social measures to deliver policy goals in the BG Case study area local residents policy officials

Policy goal and related

measures

ity ity ity ity

l l l l

tov tov

age age age

h h

r r

Capabi Svis Capabi Elena Ave Capabi Svis Capabi Elena Ave

outcome = Enhance opportunity in rural areas Help to get economically 3 4 4 2 4 4 inactive and unemployed people into own business, thereby reducing social exclusion. Improve skills of employed 3 4 4 3 4 3 people in rural areas (especially low paid) thereby increasing earning power and adaptability. Support of business activities 4 4 4 4 4 4 in rural regions help increasing of existing enterprises/ farmers and increasing employments or help to launch new ones Improving of lifestyle in 4 5 5 2 5 3 rural regions/ construction of road network, social, educational and etc. structures outcome = Enhance quality of life in rural areas. Renovation and rehabilita- 4 4 4 2 4 4 tion of villages (renovation of public buildings) Rehabilitation of public 3 5 4 3 5 4 green areas (parks, gardens, playgrounds, etc.). Improving living conditions 4 5 4 4 4 3 in rural areas by improving the mobility of labour resources, increasing the attractiveness for business development, improving infrastructure, access to services, etc.). Protection and preservation 3 5 4 3 5 4 of cultural and historical monuments (the construc-

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tion of appropriate infrastructure to access them)

2.6.1 Enhancing opportunity in rural areas

Elena

The outcome „Enhance opportunity in rural areas‟ is very important for Elena Municipality. Of the utmost importance to achieve results is to improve the lifestyle is by improving infrastructure. Both groups of respondents gave the maximum score, 5. The remaining 4 measures are also highly rated and received an average score of 4. Some of the respondents also had the opinion that those measures are quite well adapted in the Municipality, but the results will be delayed, especially because of the financial crisis in EU and in Bulgaria.

Svishtov

The outcome „Enhance opportunity in rural areas‟ is very important for all respondents. There is some differences only in how to help to get economically inactive and unemployed people into own business, thereby reducing social exclusion. While the policy officials believe that this measure would not lead to the desired result, the local residents say the opposite.

The overall assessment (Help to get economically inactive and unemployed people into own business, thereby reducing social exclusion) is that this measures would help to overcome unemployment, especially among young people. There was concern that the measure‟s impact might be overesti- mated, and that it couldn‟t be implemented to achieve the quality desired result. Respondents' concerns are based on the poor economic environment, particularly in villages. Two of the respondents believe that this measure can be changed, as people should first be trained in educational and training courses.

„Improve skills of employed people in rural areas (especially low paid) thereby increasing earning power and adaptability‟: this measure would also help to reduce unemployment and to preserve existing jobs. A major problem with this measure is that often, after training and retraining of workers by the employer, employees leave the current employment to find a more highly paid or prestigious jobs. This measure is good for workers, but not for employers.

The other 2 measures received 4 mean scores, and they are rated high and expect to bring the desired outcome in the area.

Both target groups – local residents and policy officials in Elena municipality and in Svishtov municipality rate high policy goals. Average rate is between 4 and 5.

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2.6.2 Enhance quality of life in rural areas

Elena

In Elena municipality almost all measures received maximum score, and show that those measures are adequate for the type of municipality and will bring the desired outcomes.

Svishtov

The desired outcome = Enhance quality of life in rural areas is also very important according to respondents answers. If we compare the two groups, there is almost no difference between the answers. The exception is that the policy officials believe that „Renovation and rehabilitation of villages‟ is not important to develop the outcomes.

All other measures are rated as important, but it was considered that alloca- tions are insufficient, both for renovation of villages and parks. While the local residents in Svishtov Municipality gave almost the maximum rate of the measure for renovation of public building, the policy officials think that this measure should be modified.

„Improving living conditions in rural areas by improving the mobility of labour resources, increasing the attractiveness for business development, improving infrastructure, access to services, etc.‟ is the most important measure but, if they are not able to implement it, the villages will be depopulated. All measures should be modified according to the villages‟ lifestyles.

Both target groups – local residents and policy officials in Elena municipality and in Svishtov municipality rate high policy goals. Average rate is between 3 and 5.

2.7 Economic policy goals

The economic domain is also identified by the respondents as important for Svishtov and Elena Municipalities (Table 2). Table 7 displays the possible effectiveness of the measures which are available in support of these policy goals. Both groups of respondents pointed out that „Encouragement of tourist activities‟ is an important outcome to improve economy, the competitiveness and to develop business activities. Policy officials also awarded a high score to two more outcomes: „Encouragement of local handcraft‟ and „Producing and change of Renewable energy‟.

Table 7 | Perceived capacity of economic measures to deliver policy goals in the BG Case study area local residents policy officials Policy goal and re- Capa- Capa- Aver- Capa- Capa- Aver- lated measures bility bility age bility bility age

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Svish- Elena Svish- Elena tov tov outcome = Improve economy by improving the competitiveness of farming, forestry and horticultural businesses Farm diversification into 3 4 3.5 2 4 3 non-agricultural activities Diversify of agricultural 4 4 4 3 4 3.5 activities Adding value to agricultural 3 4 3.5 3 4 3.5 or forestry products. Devel- oping new products Support groups of Organi- 4 4 4 4 5 4.5 zation of producers Support to launch and 3 4 3.5 4 4 4 develop micro enterprises- possessing and marketing of agricultural products Encouragement of tourist 3 5 4 5 5 5 activities Encouragement of local 2 5 4 5 5 5 hand craft Producing and change of 2 4 3 5 4 4.5 Renewable energy outcome = Improve economy by improving the competitiveness of businesses in other sectors Improve productivity and 3 5 4 2 5 3.5 adaptability by improving of employees in agriculture, forestry and tourism by skills and qualification Support for SMES to in- 4 4 4 3 5 4 crease innovation, access to knowledgment, expertise, business network and business incubators Improve resilience and 4 5 4.5 3 4 3.5 adaptation of firms by improving resource efficiency ( increase of their energy efficiency) Improve skills of managers 4 5 4.5 4 5 4.5 and owners in small businesses outcome = Increase diversity of rural economy Support for farm diversifi- 3 2 3 2 4 3 cation Support to create and grow 5 4 4.5 3 5 4 micro-enterprises in manufacturing, tourism, services,

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trade Modernization of agricul- 5 3 4 4 5 4.5 tural holdings Encouragement of tourism 5 5 5 5 5 5 activities in rural areas (creation of new/ rebuild of existing building infrastructure, service marketing end etc.

Improve economy by improving the competitiveness of farming, forestry and horticultural businesses

Elena

The types of measures shown are important for the development of Elena municipality. Most of the measures are scored on average with 4.

Svishtov

The outcome „Improve economy by improving the competitiveness of farming, forestry and horticultural businesses‟ is very important for the development of the surveyed areas. The measures „Encouragement of tourists activities‟, „Encouragement of local hand craft‟ and „Producing and change of Re- newable energy‟ are rated by policy officers as they lead to greatest change, but the local residents, are of the opposite opinion, and the change is too small.

The measures are important because they encourage alternative activities. It is possible to expand the market and to diversify production. Support for the creation and development of micro enterprises is important because it produces a social impact on local populations. By changing the Renewable energy, would also be improved and the environment.

Both target groups – local residents and policy officials in Elena municipality and in Svishtov municipality rate these policy goals with a high score. It is observed great difference only in „Encour- agement of local handcrafts‟. This measure is rated higher in Elena, while in Svishtov it is not important. This can be explained by the differences in the 2 municipalities.

2.7.1 Improve economy by improving the competitiveness of businesses in other sectors.

Those types of measures are more important and will contribute to reaching the desired outcomes in both Elena and Svishtov Municipality.

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For the outcome it is necessary to implement innovations. Access to knowledge is also required to enhance the level of effectiveness of small enterprises. That purpose is to achieve long-term and sustainable practices for small business owners.

2.7.2 Increase diversity of rural economy

Elena

Encouragement of tourism activities in rural areas (creation of new/ rebuild of existing building infrastructure, service marketing end etc. received maximum score by local residents and policy officials. The development of the tourism is very important for the wellbeing of the Municipality. Elena has a good opportunity to become a better place for tourism than it is today.

Svishtov

Support for farm diversification should diversify and expand existing activities, enhance the sustainability of farms and fully exploit the resources. Sup- port to create and grow micro-enterprises in manufacturing, tourism, services, trade has an important social effect to the Svishtov Municipality. This measure has a highest score by local officers, but 3 from local residents. The measure is important especially because implanting it will have a social effect by creating a new opportunity for employment.

Support for farm diversification is rated low in the two Munici- palities, and this means that the desired outcome will be not reached according to the answers.

In both municipalities, it was noted that the measures associated with the development of tourism have a positive impact and are highly rated.

2.8 Conclusions for the BG study area.

From the interviews it is possible to identify current EU policy goals which are perceived as important for the case study area, as well as the likely effectiveness of related policy measures. A comparison between perceptions of the two different stakeholder groups was made.

A set of policy measures has been constructed which a) contribute to the delivery of the desired policy outcomes; and b) are thought to be effective. This set, presented in Table 8, consists of existing measures, „improved‟ measures, and new policy measures suggested by interviewees.

Table 8 | Policy measures able to deliver policy goals, Bulgaria Case study area Policy goal and related measures Derivation of measure

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Environment outcome = Safeguard and improve biodiversity

Improving forest biodiversity through upgrading skills New measure of employees in the sector

First forestation of non- agricultural lands New measure

Stimulations for farmers and those employed in for- Current measure estry for conservation and preservation of habitats outcome = Safeguard and improve landscape

First forestation of non- agricultural lands, safeguard/ New measure creation of natural bush fence

Preservation and protection of natural sights, game Current measure farms, natural parks, protected areas

Stimulations for farmers targeted to organic farming Current measure outcome = Reducing the causes and impacts of climate change

Assistance to SMEs in all sectors to encourage envi- Current measure ronmentally-friendly production e.g. adopting renewable energy, cleaner technology; establish environmental management systems

Help businesses to enter markets to recover energy Current measure from waste, or recycle it.

Promote business activities using energy produced Current measure from waste management and use of recycled materials and packaging outcome = Water and soil conservation

Sustainable use of resources in protected areas and Current measure protected zones

Construction of sewage treatment plants and landfills Current measure

Training of residents in rural areas on how to store and Current measure protect water and soil resources

Social outcome = Enhance opportunity in rural areas

Help to get economically inactive and unemployed Current measure people into own business, thereby reducing social exclusion.

Improve skills of employed people in rural areas (espe- Current measure cially low paid) thereby increasing earning power and adaptability.

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Support of business activities in rural regions help in- Current measure creasing of existing enterprises/ farmers and increasing employments or help to lunch a new ones

Improving of life style in rural regions/ construction of Current measure road network, social, educational and etc. structures outcome = Enhance quality of life in rural areas.

Renovation and rehabilitation of villages (renovation Modified measure of public buildings)

Rehabilitation of public green areas (parks, gardens, Modified measure playgrounds, etc.).

Improving living conditions in rural areas by improv- Modified measure ing the mobility of labour resources, increasing the attractiveness for business development, improving infrastructure, access to services, etc.).

Protection and preservation of cultural and historical Modified measure monuments (the construction of appropriate infrastructure to access them)

Economic outcome = Improve economy by improving the competitiveness of farming, forestry and horticultural businesses

Farm diversification into non-agricultural activities Current measure

Diversify of agricultural activities Current measure

Adding value to agricultural or forestry products. De- Current measure veloping new products

Support groups of Organization of producers Modified measure

Support to lunch and develop of micro enterprises- Modified measure possessing and marketing of agricultural products

Encouragement of tourists activities New measure

Encouragement of local hand craft Modified measure

Producing and change of Renewable energy Modified measure outcome = Improve economy by improving the competitiveness of businesses in other sectors Improve productivity and adaptability by improving of Current measure employees in agriculture, forestry and tourism by skills and qualification Support for SMES to increase innovation, access to Current measure knowledgment, expertise, business network and business incubators

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Improve resilience and adaptation of firms by improv- Current measure ing resource efficiency ( increase of their energy efficiency) Improve skills of managers and owners in small busi- Modified measure nesses outcome = Increase diversity of rural economy Support for farm diversification Current measure Support to create and grow micro-enterprises in Current measure manu-facturing, tourism, services, trade Modernization of agricultural holdings Current measure Encouragement of tourism activities in rural areas Modified measure (creation of new/ rebuild of existing building infrastructure, service marketing end etc.

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3 CROATIAN PILOT CASE STUDY AREA

3.1 Description of the Croatian case study area

The Istrian Region includes a large part of Istria peninsula. Istrian County covers 2,822 square kilometres, which is 4.98% of the entire surface of the Republic of Croatia. The length of the Istrian coast, along with islands and islets is 539 kilometres. The west coast of Istria is more indented, and, together with islands, it is 327 kilometres long. East coast, together with islets, is 212 kilometres long. Istria County borders with Slovenia and Italy and in Croatia with Primorsko-Goranska County.

The County of Istria is divided into 10 towns and 31 municipalities where, according to the 2001 Census, live 206,344 residents or 4.65% of the population of the Republic of Croatia. About 66% of the total area of Istria County are under municipalities and 34% of area are in towns. By contrast, 29% of 206,344 residents lives in municipalities and 71% in towns. The Census 2001 shows the number of men in 2001 as 99,969 or 48.45% of the population and women 106,375 or 51.55%. The average age was 40.2 years. Average population densities were 73 inhabitants per square kilometre.

Istria County possesses natural qualities that make it a very attractive place to live and develop a number of sectors ranging from agriculture, livestock, fisheries, aquaculture, manufacturing, mining, shipbuilding to the tourism and hospitality industry.

According to data from the Central Bureau of Statistics in December 2008 in the County of Istria were registered 20,481 legal entities. According to data from FINA (Financial Agency), in September 2008 the average net salary in the Istrian County was 4,805 kuna8. Istrian economy is achieved in the period from January to December 2008 the 1.34 billion USD of exports, which makes 9.52% of total exports of Croatian and imported 1.58 billion USD, or 5.14% of Croatian imports. Coverage of imports by exports for the Republic of Croatia in 2008 amounted 46% and 85% of the County of Istria. (www.istra- istria.hr)

Natural conditions and developed tourist activity in the region opens up the possibility of production of various agricultural products. In the County of

8 Exchange rate HRK:Euro= 7.3:1

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Istria especially important agricultural industries are viticulture, wine production and olive growing.

Istria County is one of the most developed tourist regions in Croatia and traditionally the most visited tourist region. In the period from January to De- cember 2008 Istria County visited 2,729,618 tourists, which makes 24.24% of total visits to Croatia, and achieved the 17,965,984 or 31.46% of all tourist nights in Croatian.

Forests in Istria County covered about 146,021 ha and about 55% were private forest and 45% were owned and managed by the state, whereas nationally about 22% of forest in the Republic of Croatia are in private ownership.

Environmental condition for the entire Istrian County, according to the content of pollutants and other pressures on the environment, are on a satisfactory level for all components of the environment - water, sea, ground, air and biodiversity. Areas under various regimes of protection of natural cover a total of 56,070 ha.

Selection of municipalities (cluster analysis)

The basic criteria used in selection of municipalities were:

to comprise spatially the entire area of Istrian county, meaning that Cluster 1 comprises coastal area, and Cluster 2 the interior of Istrian county (for Cluster 1: western and eastern coast and for Cluster 2: inland municipalities from north to the south of the county); to select municipalities which, by the chosen criteria, are the most representative for the cluster.

On the basis of population density and employment in agriculture and tourism ratio the municipalities were scaled in comparison with the cluster average. Interviews were conducted with the municipality representatives (stakeholders from the Agency for rural development and County office). Municipalities were chosen if we found co-operative representatives and if active participation in the county development projects is evident.

3.2 The Croatian Questionnaire

3.2.1 Developing the Croatian questionnaire

Since Croatia is not yet an EU member, and still not the beneficiary of the main European funding streams (Structural, Funds, Social Fund, EAFRD), we have adjusted the proposed methodology of analysing relevant policy documents. Besides the usual pre-accession programmes (SAPARD, IPARD), the majority of current national agricultural and rural policy documents created in the process of EU adjustment have been taken into analysis. All together, eight strategic documents at national level have been taken into con-

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sideration, including the Strategy of Rural Development, Strategy of Envi- ronmental Protection, Strategy of Croatian Tourism etc., but also the Law on State Support in Agriculture and Rural Development, because of its great importance for people in rural areas (see Table 3.1).

Additionally, the most important local (Istrian county) policy documents have been analysed. These were prepared to make it easier for local people to adjust to the European standards of production and financing in rural areas (see Table 3.1). Seven Istrian strategic and operational programmes have been searched to identify the most important policy objectives and associated measures.

The analysed documents showed a broad spectrum of policy „desires‟ rather than exact policy priorities, goals and objectives, and also a great variety of possibilities for the rather small Croatian (also Istrian) territory. However, three broader areas of policy action were identified, in line with sustainable development principles: economic, environmental and social. In each of these areas greater emphasis was placed on certain policy objectives, so we have identified three policy objectives/outcomes per area, or nine in total, with 13 associated policy measures mostly used to achieve these objectives (one to three per policy objective/outcome – see Table 3.1). The final questionnaire for Croatia appears as Appendix 1.2.

3.2.2 Questionnaire administration

Stakeholders

According to the Work Programme for WP29, the interviewed stakeholders were representatives of two suggested groups:

- Group A stakeholders, representatives from the county level: (1) representative from the Istrian County administrative office, Department for agriculture; (2) representative from the Istrian Agency for Rural Development and (3) representative of the Istrian office of the Croatian Extension Service.

- Group B stakeholders were people from different municipalities, directly involved in activities of great importance for rural and the overall economic development of the particular municipality, namely: (1) state office in Buzet, (2) forestry service Poreč, (3) Institute for Agriculture and Tourism in Poreč, (4) Liburna Association Raša, (5) Ruralis Co-operative, Gračišće, (6) Nursery Longo, Rovinj, (7) Agritourism Family Farm Bažon, Gračišće and (8) Agrola- guna Poreč.

Interviews were conducted in the period January-March 2010, carried out „face-to-face‟ with all persons included; average duration of the interview was 90 minutes.

9 Prepared by Marian Raley, November 2009

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3.3 Results of the Croatian interviews: introductory questions

Interviews were conducted in the period January-March 2010, carried out "face-to-face" with all persons included; average duration of the interview was 90 minutes.

As suggested, the interviews started with several informative questions, trying to identify the main processes and events during the last 15-20 years that caused the greatest changes and shaped the municipality/county.

Some of the most important events and consequences identified by all interviewees were:

attaining independence, with great effect in political and economic life of the entire state, also of the Istrian county; privatisation and transition from a centrally planned to a market system. The loss of former firms and jobs forced people to change their economic activities; a great number of them re- oriented themselves to agriculture and other rural activities; Croatian War of Independence – caused big economic and demographic changes; great migration processes changed the demographic picture of the county; long-term withdrawal from agriculture – rural areas are abandoned and devastated; rapid (un)sustainable building – with mixed consequences (good when some important infrastructural capacities were built, bad in cases of uncontrolled building, especially in rural areas) etc.

3.4 Importance of policy outcomes in the Croatian case

Table 9 shows responses to the question concerning the importance of specific policy outcomes for particular municipality (or for the entire county, in the case of Group A stakeholders, represented in this table with numbers 9-11).

The responses show the rather balanced importance of all three areas of policy outcomes. However, the „Istrian identity‟ (shown as Soc. 3 policy outcome, with an average grade 4.5) was recognised as the most important policy outcome, necessary as a framework for all other outcomes.

Although close to other outcomes, „biodiversity‟ as an outcome has the lowest average grade, estimated as less important. This is explained by the current unfavourable economic situation and consequently priority to improve economic activities and income from all rural activities („biodiversity has sense if it's economically justified‟).

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A similar perception existed regarding the importance of „co-operation of local actors‟ as a precondition (assumed behaviour) for implementation of European funds. Besides the rather low score, this outcome (necessary precondition) is one with the highest differences in perception of our examinees. Not surprising, the highest grades for social outcomes were generally given from the Group A stakeholders who have a broader perspective of the necessity for balanced and sustainable development of the entire community.

Table 9 | Rating of policy goals in the Croatian case study area Local informants (1 to 8) Policy officials Domain St. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Avrg. dev.

Economic

Ecc. 1 - higher agricultural income 3 3 3 3 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 4.1 0.944 Ecc 2 - competitive rural economy 4 2 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 4.1 0.944 Ecc 3 - market efficiency 5 3 4 1 5 2 4 5 4 5 5 3.9 1.38 Environment Env. 1 - preserved natural resources 5 4 2 5 3 5 3 4 5 5 4 4.1 1.04 Env. 2 - sustainable development 5 3 3 5 3 3 4 4 5 5 4 4.0 0.894 Env. 3 - biodiversity 5 3 2 5 3 1 4 4 4 5 5 3.7 1.35 Social Soc. 1 - human resources development 5 4 3 2 5 5 3 5 5 5 5 4.3 1.10 Soc. 2 - local actors' co-operation 5 3 3 4 5 1 4 2 5 5 5 3.8 1.40 Soc. 3. - strengthening of local identity 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 2 5 5 5 4.5 0.934

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3.5 Current policy measures for delivering the most important outcomes

Measures commonly used to achieve the previously mentioned outcomes are listed in Table 10.

Table 10 | Policy outcomes and supporting policy measures

Type of Policy Outcome - De- Measures Applied PO scription Ecc. Improve farm income direct payments incentives in diversification of rural activities (agritourism) Ecc. Competitive rural econ- investments in farms omy support to business zones support to new production standards Ecc. Market efficiency investments in processing and marketing of products

Env. Preserved natural re- improvement of monitoring sources and information system

Env. Sustainable development incentives for renewable resources Env. Biodiversity incentives for original breeds

Soc. Human resources devel- improvements in education opment system Soc. Stakeholders' cooperation development of civil society

Soc. Strength local identity promotion (of Istria) investments into cultural heritage preservation and restoration (buildings, products etc.)

Interviewees were rather critical towards the success of measures applied to achieve economic outcomes (agricultural income, rural competitiveness, market efficiency) (Cf. Table 11) The majority of them give a low grade to the

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measure „investments in farms‟, explaining the failure of this measure by lack of strict criteria for financing and lack of control in spending these funds. The highest grades in this domain were registered for „support to implementation of new production standards‟, showing considerable improvements in production standards in viticulture and wine production, olive oil production and original cattle breeds production.

Environmental outcomes are estimated as important, but measures used so far showed different success. While the majority of interviewees recognise the importance and practical benefits of "improved monitoring and information system" in natural resource preservation, "investments in renewable energy resources" is estimated as measure that has no visible results so far (it's still in its initial phase).

Table 11 | Perceived capability of measures to deliver policy goals in the Croa- tian study area Local informants Policy officials St. Measure/examinee 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Avrg. dev.

Ecc. 1 - M1 - investments in agricultural production 3 2 2 3 1 2 4 3 5 5 3 3.0 1.26 Ecc. 2 - M2 - investments in diversification 3 2 3 4 2 4 2 4 4 3 2 3.0 0.894

Ecc. 2 - M1 - investments in farms 3 - 3 1 2 2 3 3 4 3 3 2.7 0.823 Ecc. 2 - M2 - support to building business zones 5 - 3 5 5 1 2 3 2 4 4 3.4 1.43 Ecc. 2 - M3 - support to implementation of new production standards 2 - 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3.9 0.994

Ecc. 3 - M1 - investments in processing and marketing of goods 2 3 4 - 5 - 4 3 5 3 3 3.6 1.01

Env. 1 - M1 - improvements in monitoring and information system 4 3 - 5 5 4 3 3 4 3 4 3.8 0.789

Env. 2 - M1 - investments in renewable energy resources 1 3 3 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 1.8 0.751

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Env. 3 - M1 - investments in original breeds and cultivars 2 3 - 1 3 - 4 4 5 3 3 3.1 1.17

Soc. 1 - M1 - improvements in education system 2 1 2 - 5 4 3 2 5 5 3 3.2 1.48

Soc. 2 - M1 - civil society development 1 2 3 4 1 - 3 - 4 4 4 2.9 1.27

Soc. 3 - M1 - promotion of Istria 5 4 3 5 5 5 4 - 4 5 5 4.5 0.707 Soc. 3 - M2 - investments in cultural heritage preservation and renewal 4 4 4 1 5 4 5 - 4 5 5 4.1 1.20

The greatest, and a very interesting, disaccord is evident in opinions about improvements in the education system. While the part of the interviewees (mostly from the Group A, the Policy Officials group) see positive results of their own engagement in expanding educational activities (through informal educational activities – courses, lectures and presentations for farmers and other stakeholders in rural areas), others criticize outdated programmes in schools, inadequate for the current needs of the economy and global development.

However, the lowest average grade in social area of policy outcomes, but also with a high level of disagreement, is the measure „civil society development‟. Here also the representatives of the Group A explain positive effects of NGOs and other forms of civil associations' influence. However, the Group B stakeholders (local informants) stress the inefficiency of civil organizations because of a prevailing mentality of distrustfulness, unwillingness to undertake voluntary work, or be actively engaged, or take the initiative.

On the other side, in achieving the most important outcome according to the opinion of our examinees – „strengthening local identity‟ – promotion of the Istrian county is shown as the most successful measure for the majority of examinees.

3.6 Conclusions for the Croatian study area

First insight into the survey results shows basic expectations of agricultural and rural policy on Istrian territory. Although this evaluation is made according to current national and available European programmes, it's reasonable to believe that the stakeholders won't change their priorities rapidly when Croatia becomes a member of the EU.

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Briefly, economic outcomes have still great importance: income, competitiveness, market efficiency, reflecting the still unsatisfactory economic situation in the region. Classic measures of income incentives are still welcome, but at the same time with rising consciousness of necessity for improving production standards and market efficiency.

Although awareness of environmental issues and sustainable development is increasing, it is still under the influence of the need for economic prosperity. Measures such as investments in renewable resources are recognised, but are still without adequate (practical) support in strategic documents and local actions.

The perception of civil society‟s impact in economic and particularly rural development is still doubtful. There is a common belief that improvements have to be made in formal government organization and activities, rather than in informal forms of action (such as NGOs).

The promotion of Istria is seen as very successful measure not only in achieving a stronger local identity, but also as a measure of ensuring better market prospects, inter-regional and international co-operation.

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Annex to Chapter 3: analysis of current policy documents

1/2 – National

Policy docu- Type of Objective - description Measure ment objective SAPARD Ecc. Development of rural econ- Investments in farms omy Ecc. Market accessibility Investments into processing capacities in agriculture and fishery Env. Improvement of living condi- Investments into rural infrastructure Soc. tions (areas with high forest fires risk) IPARD 2007- Ecc. Market efficiency Investments in farms 2013 Env. Preparation for Agro- Activities for environment and landscape environmental Program improvements Creation and implementation of local rural development strategies Ecc. Development of rural econ- Diversification of rural activities omy Strategy of Ecc. Competitiveness of agricul- Improvements in quality and marketing Rural Devel- ture and forestry of products opment of the Support to innovations and communica- Republic of tion technology Croatia 2008- Improvement of know-how 2013 Env. Preservation, protection and Sustainable use of agricultural and forest Soc. sustainable use of environ- land ment, landscape, natural and Preservation and renewal of cultural cultural heritage heritage and traditional values Ecc. Improvement of life quality in Production diversification rural areas – income Ecc. Improvement of institutional Support to economic activities Soc. environment Activities for increasing motivation and consciousness of local communities Law on State Ecc. Income in rural areas Direct payments in agriculture Support in Support for diversification of rural econ- Agriculture omy (non-agricultural activities) and Rural

Development Ecc. Competitiveness Education, structural support measures (retirement, micro-enterprises, touristic activities) Env. Environmental preservation Support for LFAs and protection – sustainable Agro-environmental programs land use, biodiversity Animal welfare Original breeds, genetic resources Soc. Living standard in rural areas Improvement of basic economic services in rural areas Preservation and improvement of rural heritage Local development strategies, LAGs

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1/2 – General – cont.

Strategy for En- Env. Natural resources quality ? vironmental Pro- improvement tection Env. Preservation of current bio- ? diversity Env. Preservation of special natu- ? ral values Strategy and Env. Sustain biodiversity ? Action Plan for Env. Legislative harmonization to ? Protection of the EU stands and interna- Biodiversity and tional agreements Landscape Diver- sity Strategy of Env. Preservation of landscape Physical Plan- and environment ning Soc. Renewal and development of Investments into settlements and areas devastated by war and infrastructure renewal endangered areas Soc. Building international cooperation in program preparation Strategy of Croa- Ecc. Arrangement of ownership Arrangement of trading terms tian Tourism relationships and finalisation Promotion of privatisation process Ecc. Competitiveness of Croatian Ensuring legal framework to tourism on international investments capital market Direct investments in tourism Tax reliefs Promotion and protection Public-private partnerships Ecc. Developing integral offer of Support and promotion to diver- touristic destination sification of touristic offer Ecc. Increased quality of tourist products and adjustment to international standards Soc. Building traffic infrastruc- Building quality roadways Ecc. ture Investments in river, marine and Better links between conti- air traffic nent and islands Env. Respecting high ecological standards and sustainable development Soc. Educated management in Investments in education tourism Employment of highly educated, young staff Introducing tourist modules in elementary school programmes Strategy of sustain- Ecc. able development Env. Since 2009 – irrelevant for the research area Soc.

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2/2 - Istria

Policy docu- Type of objec- Objective - descrip- Measure ment tive tion Strategic Pro- Ecc. Competitiveness of Investments into farm modernisation gram for Rural economic sector Implementation of new production standards Development Diversification of economic activities of Istrian County 2007- Enabling favourable credit terms 2013 Promotional and extension activities Env. Sustainable use of Introducing new production technologies natural resources, Implementation of measures for biodiversity preserva- environment preservation in all activities of spatial management tion and protection Support to development of renewable resources use Soc. Building institutional Investments into rural infrastructure (traffic, social, environment – im- cultural) provement living conditions in rural areas Soc. Preservation of cul- Incentives to renewal of buildings and areas of histori- tural heritage cal, cultural and traditional importance Promotion of quality original and traditional farm and craft products Soc. Cooperation of stake- Organization of LAGs holders Preparation and implementation of local development strategies Regional Op- Ecc. Competitive economy Development of favourable financial environment erational Pro- Investments into entrepreneurial infrastructure gramme of Development of business zones Istrian County 2006-2010 Implementation of knowledge and innovations Development of information system of public services and institutions Investments in tourism development Promotion of Istria, development and improvement of touristic products and services Investments into agricultural and fishery development Env. Harmonized and sus- Improvements in environment protection monitoring tainable development system Establishing environment information system Development of waste and water management system Incentives in renewable resources Incentives to projects for inland development and protection of coastal urban area Education Soc. Human resources de- Investments into employment, health protection, edu- velopment cation Demographic incentives Civil society development Soc. Development of Istrian Investments into landscape diversity, institutional and identity cultural heritage Education, improvement of institutional work

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2/2 – Istria - cont.

Interreg III Ecc. Competitiveness of fish- Diversification of activities in ery sector fishery Promotion of SMEs in fishery sector Ecc. Sustainable fishery sector Foundation of observatory for Env. analysis of socio-economic issues in fishery sector Soc. Promotion of spatial planning development Agriculture Ecc. Improvement of agricul- Investments into ... Development tural production Fund Ecc. Improvement of hunting Investments into ... and hunting tourism Tourism Master Env. Clear environment Plan Ecc. Diversified touristic offer (supply) Ecc. Attracting capital investments Ecc. High employment and Soc. living standard growth Soc. Preservation of local identity Programme of Ecc. Diversification of touristic Building 20 golf courses on the Golf Develop- offer (supply) territory of Istrian county ment as an Element of Croatian Tour- ism Develop- ment Strategy, 1999 Decision(s) on Soc. Preservation of architec- ? Bringing Spa- ture, cultural and ethno- tial Plans for graphic heritage Protected Areas Env. Preservation of ecological ? (National Park stability Brijuni, Park of Nature Učka, Env. Preservation of biodiver- ? Protected Area sity Donji Kamen- Env. Preservation of Karsts ? jak and Me- and subterranean areas dulin Archipel- ago Ecc. Protection and manage- ? Env. ment of forests, hunting and hunting tourism Ecc. Tourism development Zoning, detailed plan of spatial management and infrastructure

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4 CZECH REPUBLIC PILOT CASE STUDY AREA

4.1 Description of the CZ case study area

South Moravia region (SMR) is one of the 14 “NUTS 3” regions in the Czech Republic and part of the “NUTS2” – South East region. This region consists of 7 districts (Blansko, Brno-město, Brno-venkov, Břeclav, Hodonín, Vyškov and Znojmo) and it includes 673 municipalities. The area of this region is 719,555 ha (c. 9.1 % of CZ) and the population 1,14, 534 places SMR as the 4th largest region in the Czech Republic, but from the point of density, which is 158.4 inh./km2, it is in 3rd place.

Three basic clusters in South Moravia region were identified (see Czech report of D1.4 Report on selection of representative municipalities in the South Moravia region). Following this, interviews were conducted with local and policy officials in all of them. Their main characteristics of these clusters are described below. For each cluster one municipality was chosen.

In relative terms agriculture in SMR is still important sector. Around 60 % of the area is made up of agricultural land, of which 84 % is arable land (i.e. 49.7%, whilst the country‟s average is 33.5%). Totalling 362,937 ha the UAA of SMR accounts for 10.3% of UAA of CZ. The total number of agricultural holdings in SMR is 8 522.

In regional comparisons the highest number of agricultural holdings is situated in Břeclav district, the majority smaller than 5 ha. The highest utilized UAA (total in ha) was in the Znojmo district (102 936 ha), and is almost double that of the second largest UAA in the region (found in district Brno- venkov, 62,002 ha).

Cluster 1 includes the following districts: Břeclav, Hodonín and Znojmo. The share of forests is low and land use is characterized by a relatively high share of vineyards and intensive orchards as well as arable land. The second cluster consists of Blansko and Brno-venkov districts i.e. north west of the region, significantly elevated area with a high share of forests. The third cluster consists of only the district of Vyškov. This North-east sub-region lies between the other 2 clusters in terms of nature conditions – half of the region (the west part) is a forested hilly area while the east part are lowlands with intensive agriculture. That is not enough evidence to classify districts only according to forest.

4.1.1 Cluster I

Districts in this cluster are the farthest from Brno city and are situated at the borderline of the Czech Republic. According to the other variables chosen for

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LAU1 analysis there is low population density, low population growth as far as decrease of population (mainly in district Hodonin), the highest unemployment rate, the lowest average wages and the lowest aged dependency ratio.

According to the variables at the municipality level, the cluster‟s average population density of 75 inh./km2 represents 83% of the regional average. The population has been stable for the last 15 years (1992-2007). The average village has 60 % of arable area, 18% of forest and 12% is protected by NATU- RA 2000.

The character of this cluster is mainly agricultural. There are located 84% of the Czech Republic‟s vineyards. The main area is under the protection of NATURA 2000 or other type of national reserve. Many greenways offer nice opportunities to discover the value of local nature.

4.1.2 Cluster II

Districts from this cluster are the closest to Brno (the central city of South Moravian region) and are situated in upcountry of the Czech Republic. There is the highest population growth (mainly due to process of suburbanization) and at the same time there is the highest population density. There is high average wages and low unemployment rate. This is thanks to short distance from Brno, so there are a lot of well-paid work opportunities. This cluster has the highest aged dependency ratio. Only a small share of land is under the NATURA 2000.

Measured at the municipality level the cluster has high population density (103 inh./km2) and population growth (6%) as mentioned above. The average village has 45 % of its area covered by arable area, 32% by forest and 3% under the NATURA 2000.

The cluster is significantly influenced by Brno city in many ways: o Population - suburbanization process o Industry – there are several industry zones o Tourism – attractive nature and short distance from centre of region makes this area very inviting for short recreation visits.

4.1.3 Cluster III

This cluster is formed only from one district, because it is different from other districts with respect to the chosen clustering variables. This district lies mid-distance from Brno, has a low population density (second lowest from all districts), high population growth (second from all districts), low unemployment rate, the largest NATURA 2000 area, medium aged dependency ratio and the highest average wages.

At the municipality level the average demographic structure of this cluster is almost the same as the combined average of the all sample municipalities.

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The average village in this cluster has 67% of arable area, 16% of forest and only 1 % under the protection of NATURA 2000.

The main part of the district Vyškov is registered as the army area and covers 158 km2 (i.e. 18% of the district area).

4.2 The CZ Questionnaire

4.2.1 Developing the CZ questionnaire

The main goals for the questionnaire were outlined from the strategic documents at the national, regional and municipalities‟ level. Specifically:

The Sustainable Development Strategy of the CR. The Regional Development Strategy The National Strategic Reference Framework of the Czech Republic 2007–2013 National Strategic Plan for Rural Development of the Czech Republic for 2007–2013 Regional Operational Programme NUTS 2 South-East for 2007-2013 Development Strategy for the South Moravian Region (for period 2006-2016) Programme of Development of the South Moravian region (for period 2006-2009) Strategy of Development of Microregion Rakovec (note: Microregion Rakovec including the municipality Rousinov) Strategy of Microregion Straznicko (note: microregion including the municipality Tvarozna Lhota)

All indicated goals were written down and sorted into the three sections (economic, environmental and social). The goals in each section were further sorted according to the frequency and the emphasis in the documents (the main impact was placed on the goals from the regional documents). Finally the following goals were chosen:

- For the economic outcomes: Tourism development, Infrastructure development, improving of new entrepreneurial activities in municipalities (support for small and middle size firms). Support of the economic activities was stressed in all documents as the main condition and basis for any further development of region. - For the environmental outcomes: Preservation and maintenance of the rural landscape, Groundwater and surface water protection, Usage of renewable resources. Despite the declaration that the environment and its protection is a very important strategic aim, it could be perceived that the social and especially the economic outcomes are emphasised more strongly. - For the social outcomes: Support of cooperation, Workers flexibility in relation to changes in labour market, Sustainment of population size in rural areas. The social goals were mainly targeted at the

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establishment of networks, involvement of the all social groups (especially any handicapped ones) and their further development to achieve stable and increasing human and social potential in the region.

The final questionnaire appears as Appendix A1.3

4.2.2 Questionnaire administration

Fourteen interviews were conducted in South Moravia region between Janu- ary and June 2010. Ten of them were conducted face-to-face, one of the officials was interviewed via electronic means (questionnaire sent and answered by email) and two interviews were conducted via phone call. Researchers interviewed six local informants and eight policy officials (see Table 12).

Local informants were selected according to their occupational role in the study area. An important determinant in selection was their experienced gained with European and national funds. Among these local informants dominated municipality mayors (3), enterprise managers (2) and one representative of Local action group (LAG) established in LEADER program. Offi- cial bodies from which policy officials were selected were those responsible for administration or preparation of respective strategies.

Table 12 | Interviewees in the CZ case study area Interviewee type Description

1. Local resident Cooperative farm/Councilperson

2. Local resident/Official Mayor, Černá Hora

3. Local resident/Official Mayor, Rousínov

4. Local resident/Official Mayor, Tvarožná Lhota

5. Local resident Bakery Director

6. Local resident/Official LAG Manager/Councilperson

Officer of Regional Council of the Co- 7. Policy Official hesion Region South-East, Brno Officer of Regional Council South Mo- 8. Policy Official ravia (Department of Environment), Brno Officer of Regional Council South Mo- 9. Policy Official ravia (Department of Regional Devel- opment), Brno Officer of Regional Council South Mo- 10. Policy Official ravia (Department of Agriculture and Rural Areas), Brno Officer of Regional Council South Mo- 11. Policy Official ravia (Department of Strategic Plan- ning), Brno

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Officer of Ministry of Industry and Trade of Czech republic (Department 12. Policy Official of Implementation of Structural Funds), Prag Officer of Ministry of the Environment 13. Policy Official of the Czech republic (Department of EU Funds), Prag

Officer of Ministry of Agriculture (De- 14. Policy Official partment of Rural Development), Prag

4.3 Results of the CZ interviews: Introductory questions

4.3.1 Perceived changes in the case study area

Local stakeholder interviews suggest separating the general development of the last 20 years into two phases. That is motivated by different conditions and changes in the country since 1989 that determined social, economic and political development.

The following list of changes is not exhaustive but shows the most relevant identified by experts interviewed.

1989-2000

Political changes. The first period, since 1990 till 2000, is characterized by fundamental socio-economic and political changes: starting from the state centrally planed economy to a free market economy, restitution of ownership rights (land and some other assets), privatization of state owned companies, transformation of agricultural cooperatives and related institutional and legislative changes. Although the majority of ownership rights were settled, a few unresolved cases persisted (e.g. in agriculture some transformation debts of former joint stock companies were not settled yet, sometimes it causes a kind of tension between cooperative – debtor and transformation - clai- mants).

Structures in agriculture. Before transition agriculture was dominated by large hierarchical structures (state farms and cooperatives). Following the restitution and transformation process in agriculture several restituents be- gan running their business. Due to several factors (difficult access to capital, land, weak competitiveness…) some of them shortly after that gave land back to transformed cooperative farms or were taken over by another growing individual farm.

Land usage and ownership. Land previously cultivated by state farms was restituted while state land is being privatized. Historically, and partially due to these processes, the land ownership became fragmented (many owners with only small land size, less than 1 ha). Notably, the inheritance law does

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allow land fragmentation into an unlimited number of heirs. This is in contrast to usage structure dominated by large companies and blocks. The countryside around most of the municipalities analyzed remained in the stewardship of one large company (cooperative or partnership) plus a few individual farms (notably, it is not exception that a large company may operate on several cadastres or municipalities).

Employment. Since 1990 there has been a gradually change in employment structure. Agriculture faced a significant drop, and redundant labour was absorbed by industry and the tertiary sector. The collapse of traditional job providers resulted in reduced provision of some services (e.g. shops). It has also changed social patterns of labour, as a result increasing labour commuting. Rural settlements started to suffer from depopulation.

In the Czech Republic there is not a strong trend to sell the house when in the situation of looking and finding a new work position. A small municipality does not offer the occasions for work in the place, where people lives. As we could see in our case study municipalities, although the role of new services connected with tourism are increasing, the total amount of people receiving their incomes from these services, as well as the general importance of this economic activity in rural areas, are still not so big.

2000 onward

Land use changes. The second period, since 2000, can be characterized by a significant appropriation of agricultural land for residential building and construction of industrial zones. A negative tendency is that the most valuable land is withdrawn fastest. Obviously, connection to infrastructure is of high importance as well.

Though land consolidations - aimed at improving ownership structure and access to land – had already started in 1991, they have received more attention as far as recently (up to now only 15% or territory has been finished). That is to say land consolidations have the potential to break down some barriers existing on the land market.

Restoring rural areas. The period can be characterized by increasing population in rural settlements, particularly those with over 2000 inhabitants and nearby the centres (service and job opportunities). Significant investment into infrastructure linked with environment preservation has happened. The environment got more attention: sewerage plants are compulsory for municipalities over 2000 inhabitants; municipalities and private economics sub- jects are now much interested in flood and anti-erosion soil protection. Due to CAP, land operation is much refocused on land conservation.

4.3.2 Underlying causes of any changes

The following flowchart describes the main causes identified during interviews; however it is not a complete specification of all causes and outcomes. It summarizes the main causes relevant for all municipalities and policy responses. Three main driving forces each resulted in several issues. These

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called for specific responds/solution (i.e. infrastructure building and maintenance).

Figure 2 | Main causes and implications of development in case study municipalities

Collapse of traditional New market opportunities Perception of quality of life in structures in terms of -Manufacturing, services, -Primary sectors agriculture -living, lesure, environment

-Related services

ECON DRIVING F. DRIVING ECON -

New demand for

New demand for SOCIO Production living Unemployment Migration lesure capacities Depopulation Job New demand for (young) opportunities environment

Suffering social ISSUES relationships

Needs to attract Needs to strengthen Needs for rearranging spatial plannig, -residents social involvement appropriate Infrastructure and its maintaining - newcomers

NEEDS LOCAL

Local partnerships Tourism Residential (LAG) Industrial zones zones infrastructure Roads

Public services … RESPONDS

Examples of socio-economic and institutional impediments in the interviewed municipalities:

One municipality representative stated there was often dispute over agricultural land withdrawal for non-agriculture utilization. This is mainly between municipality council and agriculturists. It is not exception the role of these stakeholders often overlaps. Newly emerged individual farms with potential growth are newly impeded by large-scale enterprises with large fields cultivated. New residential zones attracts mainly younger families; yet these incomers are often using homes as dormitory for city commuting without being involved in public affairs. Their participation in discussion and municipality issues is missing.

4.4 Importance of policy outcomes

Part 1 of the Czech questionnaire asked respondents to rate the importance of EU policies for municipality development. Table 13 shows the average score given by local informants and policy officials for each policy goal10. It is

10 Scores denote the following: 1= In this area, this goal is of no importance 2=slightly important 3=quite important 4= definitely important 5= very important

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worth saying that in this first part of questioning there was high ability of respondents to evaluate each of policy goals. (All local informants were able to evaluate all goals and seven of policy officials answered all questions). Contrary to that, the ability to evaluate each of individual measures was lower; it showed that not all of respondents knew about specific measure or they had insufficient experience with them.

Table 13 provides scores of both groups of evaluators: notably the mean scores do not differ significantly. The same mean score appeared once per each group of policy outcomes. From the point view of local informants, the highest importance was given to the environmental outcomes; from the point of view of policy officials the most important were ranked economic outcomes. Local informants and policy officials evaluated environmental and social outcomes similarly. A small discrepancy between the two groups of evaluators appeared in economic outcomes: total rate of local informants was 11 against policy officials having 13. The disproportion of general evaluation was registered in case of economic sphere (sum for all of goals): importance for local informant gave 11, for policy officials the value reached 13. Overall, the lowest ratings of all goals were given to usage of renewable resources and to support of cooperation.

Table 13 | Rating of policy goals in the CZ case study area Local informants Policy officials Policy goal Mean score Mean score

Economic

Tourism development 3 4

Infrastructure development 4 5

Improving of new entrepreneur activities in municipalities (sup- 4 4 port for small and middle size firms) Environmental Preservation and maintenance of 5 4 the rural landscape Groundwater and surface water 4 5 protection Usage of renewable resources 3 3

Social

Support of cooperation 3 3

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Workers flexibility in relation to 3 4 changes in labour market Sustainment of population size 5 4 in rural areas

Local informants view „infrastructure development‟ and „improving of new entrepreneur activities in municipalities‟ as the most important goals in the economic domain. They point out the linkages between infrastructure and „tourism development‟: without well-prepared infrastructure and base services, it is, according to local informants, very difficult to offer the locality to tourists. The policy officials see ‟ infrastructure development‟ as important as well, but they differ in tourist development evaluation. They perceive it as a possibility for new work positions and competitiveness of the region. They have experiences that it is one way to maintain the population in rural areas and increase the quality of life for municipality residents. Moreover, both groups interviewed see promising potential for tourism development in the case study region.

Interestingly, the environmental outcomes got the highest ranking from local informants, as well as from policy officials. As mentioned above, the most important for local informants is „preservation and maintenance of the rural landscape‟ and „water protection‟. That is probably related to persisting flood problems that are severe in the study region. (For policy officials groundwater and surface water protection are even more important than for the other group.). As mentioned in interviews with policy officials, the case study region has small resources of high quality water, and statistics shows the region is going to be increasingly dry. „Usage of renewable resources‟ has got relatively smaller rankings from both sides (although some segments of renewable energy production face very fast growth, e.g. photovoltaics or biogas sta- tions). Arguments often mentioned by local informants were insufficient market stability, and unstable prices for energy given by the energy companies. Furthermore they argue about the difficulties to get in to the system, the energy companies often wanting some benefit for connection to the grid. Also worth pointing out is that some policy officials mentioned, that using and concentrating only on renewable resources could have a negative effect on environment in the long term view; two officials added, it could be better for a region to concentrate on nuclear energy.

Social outcomes got the smallest average rating from both groups. It concerns mainly the „Support of co-operation goal‟; local informants were either without or had insufficient experience with this goal to make a reliable judg- ment. If evaluated, the evaluation was rather that it is not needed. Although policy officials expressed the same evaluation in numbers, they saw the goal as important because of the possibility to substitute the insufficient role of official state and regional institutions. The most important goal in the social domain was evaluated „Sustainment of population size in rural areas‟. It is not surprising that local informants see this outcome as the most important and crucial (they marked this goal with a 5). They often link the population maintenance with the existence of services. The policy officials mentioned in this sense that there is still increasing phenomena of building settlements in suburban areas, often on a newly established residential zones. For the quality of life in municipalities in rural areas, for sustainment of population size they

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view as of high importance good connections to the centres that serve in some localities.

4.5 Environmental policy goals

Table 13 showed that, in the environmental domain, respondents evaluated three policy outcomes as of importance for the South Moravia region. Table 14 displays the possible effectiveness of the measures that are available in support of these policy goals.

Table 14 | Perceived capacity of environmental measures to deliver policy goals in the CZ case study area Capability11 Capability Policy goal and related measures Mean score, Mean score, local informant policy official outcome = preservation and maintenance of the rural landscape

1. Modernization of agriculture holdings 4 4

2. Agro–environmental measures 3 3

3. Diversification into non–agricultural 2 3 activities 4. Development and stabilization of rural 4 4 area outcome = groundwater and surface water protection

1. Sub–measure “landscape management“ 4 4 2. The improvement of waste manage- 4 5 ment 3. The rehabilitation of old ecological bur- 4 4 dens outcome = usage of renewable resources 1. The construction of new facilities and the modernisation of the existing facilities with the aim of increasing the use of renewable energy sources for heat genera- 4 3 tion, electric energy generation and for combined heat and electric energy generation 2. The realisation of energy savings and the use of waste heat in the non–business 4 4 carrying sector

11 1 = I expect the measure will have no effect; 5 = I expect the measure will have crucial effect

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3. Saving of energy and renewable re- 3 3 sources

Some of the available measures were viewed by respondents as being unlikely to make any difference to the achievement of the policy goals, or of being inappropriate for the case study area. The following sections report why the measures were considered deficient and also, where possible, propose improvements and/or new measures.

4.5.1 Preservation and maintenance of the rural landscape

Local informants reported one of the most important issues in the case of modernization of agricultural holdings as the administration of applications – e.g. the necessity to document a detailed history of the holding. According to this remark, the improvement of this measure would result from more flexible criteria for applicants. The measure of „Diversification into non- agricultural activities‟ was seen that it is solely focused on agricultural producers. The diversification is, as mentioned by informants, usually into activities which are not linked with agriculture, so this measure should be reallo- cated into different part of the rural development plan. That could help in better understanding of the goal of this measure.

4.5.2 Groundwater and surface water protection

Informants perceived this measure as very important and well prepared, so there were no comments. Only one of the policy officials mentioned the administrative cost for subsidy receiving. In case study municipalities there were no problems with old ecological burdens and municipalities have prop- erly working waste management systems.

4.5.3 Usage of renewable resources

In the case of „Construction of new facilities and the modernisation of the existing facilities with the aim to increase the use of renewable energy sources for heat generation, electric energy generation and for combined heat and electric energy generation‟, the perceived problem by local informant was with distributors. Policy officers pointed out on relatively high transaction costs (ex-ante) on project preparation (often external advisors have to be engaged). Another comment was given to the low efficiency linked with high costs. In this case the measure is, as mentioned by policy official, important but not well prepared.

4.6 Social policy goals

Table 15 shows that, in the social domain, 3 policy outcomes have been identified as of importance for South Moravia region. Table 2.5 displays the possible effectiveness of the measures that are available in support of these policy goals.

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Table 15 | Perceived capacity of social measures to deliver policy goals in the CZ case study area Capability12 Capability Mean Policy goal and related Mean score, score, measures local informants policy officials outcome = support of cooperation

1. Platforms for cooperation 4 4

2. Implementing local develop- 3 4 ment strategy outcome = workers flexibility in relation to changes in labour market

1. Further education 4 4

2. System framework of lifelong 3 5 learning 3. Increasing employee adaptability and enterprise competi- 3 4 tiveness

4. Training and information 2 2 outcome = sustainment of population size in rural areas

1. Village renewal and development, public amenities and 4 4 services 2. Support of social integration 4 5 and social services 3. Infrastructure of education and development of human 3 3 resources

4. Initial education 4 4

Some of the available measures were viewed by respondents as being unlikely to make any difference to the achievement of the policy goals, or of being inappropriate for the case study area. The following sections report why the measures were considered deficient and also, where possible, to propose improvements and/or new measures

12 1 = I expect the measure will have no effect; 5 = I expect the measure will have crucial effect

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4.6.1 Support of cooperation

In connection with measures for supporting of cooperation, informants mentioned problems with high demands for administration and bureaucracy. One policy officer mentioned that the measure is mainly focused on bigger companies with expert knowledge and that is why this measure has only a small impact in rural areas. Another policy official said, that this measure does not work, people are not ready for this kind of work and that finance reserved for this measure should be relocated to some other measure. From the point of view of local informants this measure is important, but as observed in the case study municipalities, because of the structure of companies in rural areas, this mechanism works in more informal ways.

4.6.2 Workers flexibility in relation to changes in labour market

The claim that there are only slight differences in the views of measures by both of respondent groups s are not sustained in the case of the lifelong learning measure. From the point of view of local informants, the practical knowledge, so important for work, is possible to obtain from everyday experiences and there is than no need for special measures subsidised by state or European Union. Informants stated that it could be called schooling for schooling‟s sake and not for practical and logical reasons. By contrast, from the point of policy official‟s view, the need exists and is really important. Fur- ther, the measure devoted to „Training and information‟ is seen by both of groups as not needed. The local informants mentioned that this measure is only for spending money; the policy officials were not so strict in putting this measure aside, but they said that the measure is not attractive for people, they do not want to attend the courses, and there is no interest for this. It was mentioned that the courses are not based on retraining scheme, but rather are mainly informative. The beneficiary of this measure should only be the person who is attending some course, not the agencies that prepare the courses.

4.6.3 Sustainment of population size in rural areas

This goal was, generally speaking, marked with high importance by local and policy interviewees. Only the measure „Infrastructure of education and development of human resources‟ was seen as less important. The local informants were mostly not able to comment on this measure. Policy officials mentioned, that this measure is expensive, should be replaced by education prepared by employers, and that there is the possibility to substitute this measure with another one from structural funds. The general claim made by policy officials was that people are not using this measure.

4.7 Economic policy goals

Table 16 shows that, in the economic domain, three policy outcomes have been identified as of importance for the South Moravia region. It also displays the possible effectiveness of the measures that are available in support of these policy goals.

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Table 16 | Perceived capacity of economic measures to deliver policy goals in the CZ case study area Capability13 Capability Policy goal and related measures Mean score, Mean score, local informants policy officials Outcome = tourism development

1. Encouragement of tourism activities 3 4 2. Development of infrastructure for 3 3 tourism 3. Conservation and upgrading of the 3 3 rural cultural heritage Outcome = infrastructure development 1. Upgrading of class I roads outside of 3 4 TEN–T 2. Transport infrastructure develop- 3 5 ment in the cohesion region 3. Encouragement of tourism activities 3 3

4. Village renewal and development 3 4 outcome = improving of new entrepreneur activities in municipalities (support for small and middle size firms) 1. Support for business creation and 2 3 development 2. Infrastructure for enterprise 3 3 3. Bank tools for support of small and 4 3 middle enterprises 4. Land consolidation 4 3

Some of the available measures were viewed by respondents as being unlikely to make any difference to the achievement of the policy goals, or of being inappropriate for the case study area. The following sections report why the measures were considered deficient and also, where possible, to propose improvements and/or new measures

4.7.1 Tourism development

According to the policy official‟s view, the measure „Encouragment of tourism activities‟ is well prepared, but there is problem with the amount of money available. In the Czech landscape there is so many examples of cultural heritage and the problem is which projects to choose to be most attractive to

13 1 = I expect the measure will have no effect; 5 = I expect the measure will have crucial effect

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tourists. From the point of view of tourist accommodation, the policy officers suggest subsidizing small family hotels and small projects in more municipalities rather than a smaller number of bigger projects. The local informants commented on this measure similarly, as well prepared, but with a lack of money. In case of „Development of infrastructure for tourism‟ the local informants made the same comment („lack of money‟ as a dominant problem). Policy officials answered the same, and similarly to the previous measure, they concluded that megalomaniac projects are subsidized to the prejudice of smaller ones. The last measure, which was implemented into this goal, was commented on similarly. According to local informants, there is so many cultural heritage, so there is enormous responsibility by the local government which individual heritage will be selected for reconstruction and included into tourism attraction of the region. The policy officials saw the problem of this measure in it not being focused on the small projects, especially on small family hotels with small rooms. The measure should be focused on the future additional using of reconstructed objects, and the subsidies should be 100 % of needed amount of money. Interestingly, responses did not give promi- nence to the economy connected with the commodification of local identity.

4.7.2 Infrastructure development

Upgrading of class I roads outside of TEN–T is basically focused on the higher level than small rural municipalities. That is why policy officials, as well as local informants suggest linking this measure with higher levels of government, especially on the regional level. The improvement of the trans- portation system was connected mainly with development of personal trans- portation. The local informants linked this measure generally with development of bicycle roads for commuting to work, school and for services (for smaller projects). The policy officials see the roads of II. and III. level as crucial for commuting in a similar way to local informants who reported on bicycle roads. In the case of „Encouragement of tourism activities‟, in one of the selected municipalities the local stakeholder made a comment, that the rules for this measure privileged some of municipalities according to their population size. The perceived problem is that the rules are made in so rigid a way and do not consider that bigger municipalities provide the public services to the smallest municipalities in their surroundings. There is perceive in the design of the measure. The last measure, focused on „Village renewal and development,‟ has from the view of local people, the main problem in activity of municipality residents. This measure, included in Rural Development Pro- gram of the Czech Republic, is similarly restricted only for villages of specified population size (no more than 500 inhabitants). It is a handicap for some municipalities (500-2000 inhabitants). The policy officials mentioned in their perception, that the measure is in these days focused on and used basically for the reconstruction of walkways and safety of residents living in municipalities.

Improving of new entrepreneur activities in municipalities (support for small and middle size firms)

From the point of view of local informants the issue of the „Support for business creation and development‟ measure is in unclear rules. The agricultural firms have insufficient potential and there are poorly prepared options for

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obtaining subsidies. The local informants who commented on this measure focused on the necessity to document the history of the firm, which is sometimes “nonsense”. Another point mentioned was that in this measure it is usually crucial to have a really good prepared project, and much better than for other measures. So the ability to obtain subsidies is much lower. The measure focused on infrastructure is, according to local informants, linked with excess demand. Policy officials were not able to give any suggestion for improvement of this measure. Only in one case was mentioned the possibility to enlarge the measure over bathhouses and tourism. Local informants see bank tools, the next measure, as of medium importance in the scale. As they mentioned, and similarly with policy officials, there is a problem with obtaining the money, the measure is complicated and is linked with social capital and acquaintances. Policy officials mentioned financial health as a require- ment for getting money. This could be again problem for smaller firms to document. Finally „Land consolidation‟, was seen as very important from the municipality point of view, but mainly near the centre of the municipality. Policy officials saw the importance mainly for the agricultural firms, but this feeling was not the same from the agricultural manager‟s point of view. Ac- cording to her, the land consolidation has importance only from the short term point of view and that is why this measure is generally not important.

4.8 Conclusions for CZ case study area

From the interview information it has been possible to identify the current EU policy goals that are perceived as important for the case study area, and the likely effectiveness of related policy measures. A comparison was made of the perceptions of the 2 different stakeholder groups. The main differences were perceived generally in the economic sphere. The sum difference in cal- culating of all the measures is five points (the policy officials give higher importance to the measures). Next one is the environmental sphere, where the difference is four points (again higher importance perceived by policy officials), in social sphere the rate is similar (difference of only one point). In all spheres the perceived importance is higher for policy officials than for local informants (This was calculated as the mean, so the number of informants in each of spheres does not influence the results). In close investigation of the measures, the highest inequality in perceived importance was expressed in the case of „Transport infrastructure development‟ in the cohesion region measure (economics sphere), where local informants awarded an average importance of three, while policy officials gave five. The same situation is present in the measure „System framework of lifelong learnin‟g (social sphere).

A set of policy measures has been constructed which a) contribute to the delivery of the desired policy outcomes; and b) are thought to be effective. This set, presented in

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Table 17 consists of existing measures, „improved‟ measures, and new policy measures suggested by interviewees.

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Table 17 | Policy measures able to deliver policy goals, CZ case study area Derivation of Policy goal and related measures measure

Environment outcome = preservation and maintenance of the rural landscape

1. Modernization of agriculture holdings Modify measure

2. Agro–environmental measures Modify measure

3. Diversification into non–agricultural activities New measure

4. Development and stabilization of rural area Modify measure outcome = groundwater and surface water protection

1. Sub–measure “landscape management“ Current measure

2. The improvement of waste management Current measure

3. The rehabilitation of old ecological burdens Current measure outcome = usage of renewable resources

1. The construction of new facilities and the modernisation of the existing facilities with the aim to increase the use of renewable energy sources for heat Modify measure generation, electric energy generation and for combined heat and electric energy generation 2. The realisation of energy savings and the use of Modify measure waste heat in the non–business carrying sector

3. Saving of energy and renewable resources New measure

Social outcome = support of cooperation

1. Platforms for cooperation Modify measure

2. Implementing local development strategy Current measure outcome = workers flexibility in relation to changes in labour market 1. Further education Modify measure

2. System framework of lifelong learning Modify measure

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3. Increasing employee adaptability and enterprise New measure competitiveness 4. Training and information New measure outcome = sustainment of population size in rural areas 1. Village renewal and development, public amenities Modify measure and services 2. Support of social integration and social services Current measure 3. Infrastructure of education and development of New measure human resources 4. Initial education Modify measure

Economic outcome = tourism development

1. Encouragement of tourism activities Modify measure

2. Development of infrastructure for tourism Modify measure 3. Conservation and upgrading of the rural cultural Modify measure heritage outcome = infrastructure development

1. Upgrading of class I roads outside of TEN–T Modify measure 2. Transport infrastructure development in the cohe- Modify measure sion region 3. Encouragement of tourism activities Modify measure

4. Village renewal and development Modify measure outcome = improving of new entrepreneur activities in municipalities (support for small and middle size firms)

1. Support for business creation and development New measure

2. Infrastructure for enterprise Modify measure 3. Bank tools for support of small and middle enter- Modify measure prises 4. Land consolidation Modify measure

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5 GERMAN PILOT CASE STUDY AREA

5.1 Description of the German case study area

The Altmark region is located in the North of Sachsen-Anhalt and shares borders with the federal state Niedersachsen and Brandenburg. Its area is 4,715.5 ha (ca. 1.3% of whole Germany) and the population of 220,787 inhabitants places the Altmark as one of the most sparsely populated regions in Germany. There is no specific natural centre in the Altmark. The two largest cities are Stendal (East) and Salzwedel (Northwest) in which a quarter of the Altmark population lives. Stendal is a city surrounded by rural areas and located near the River Elbe. Therefore mainly companies oriented towards food production and processing as well as vehicle construction settled in the district of Stendal. The existence of a university of applied science with ca. 1,700 students offers to companies the possibility to hire high educated resources. The whole Altmark is rather agriculturally-oriented. Because of the poor soils the main farm type to be found is livestock farming, especially dairy production. The region has a relatively high percentage of grassland (ca. 26 %) com- pared to the rest of Saxony-Anhalt. Protected areas in the Altmark cover approx. 90,000 ha; a share of ca. 20 % of the Altmark territory is protected. The region consists of 15 districts (Verwaltungsgemeinschaften and Stadtverwaltungen) subdivided into 224 municipalities. The Altmark un- derwent an administrative reform completed on the 1st of January 2010. Broadly the objective of this reform is to rebuild administrative units into larger units in order to save money. The reform consists in merging very small villages/administrative units together around a focal village/town, and to merging these newly created small units within bigger administrative con- sortia around a focal point, mostly a town, able to deliver a complete panel of services to surrounding citizens. Therefore the objective displayed by regional planners is rather to strengthen focal centres rather than providing similar chances to all municipalities among the whole Altmark territory. Among the ex-GDR Federal States, Sachsen-Anhalt had to face the strongest decrease in population since 1989 due to net emigration rates rather than higher mortality. Migration flows take the direction of the Western Federal States of Niedersachsen, Nordrhein-Westfalen, Bayern and Baden- Württemberg. The majority of emigrants are women. Generally people under 25 years of age are the ones who migrate in the direction of Western Federal States while the older migrants (older than 65 years of age) leave in a somewhat moderate manner. While the population throughout Germany decreased in the last four years by a marginal 0.4 %, the Altmark was facing a decline in population of 5.6 %. In recent years, two facts are to be highlighted: the ageing of the population and the decreasing proportion of children. In 2007 the share of children was 11% in the Altmark (in Germany 13,8 %), the share of inhabitants of working age was of 67 % (in Germany 66%) and the number of inhabitants older than 65 year was of 21% (in Germany 20%). Based on projections, the population of Sachsen-Anhalt should shrink by one fifth of its current size by 2025; most of inhabitants will be constituted

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of elderly people. This has already had, and will have in the future, consequences in all fields of regional development, from infrastructure planning to school policy, as well as administration costs and natural resource management.

Among the municipalities kept in the Altmark for cluster analysis, five main groups have been defined. Among them, the first pilot municipality chosen for calibration in the PRIMA model is Hohenberg-Krusemark and belongs to cluster group 3.

Cluster group 3 shows a positive population growth and is apart from that quite different from the two first cluster groups (see report on cluster analy- ses delivered in WP1 and Erreur ! Source du renvoi introuvable.). In Cluster 3 there are on average fewer elderly people and a lower unemployment rate in comparison to the other clusters. In this cluster group Garlipp and Hohenberg-Krusemark were suggested for study by our regional partners and are typical for this cluster. In Hohenberg-Krusemark and Garlipp around 85 % of the area is Utilized Agricultural Area (UAA), only 7 % is forestry area. In Hohenberg-Krusemark more than 10 % are nature protected areas.

Table 18 | Summary statistics on Cluster 3 Share Pop of Unem- Share Share Pop. Pop. Natura age>6 ployed UAA forest growth density 2000 5

Mean 0.138 0.730 0.193 0.023 0.106 0.064 0.187 Standard deviation 0.049 0.095 0.097 0.053 0.116 0.027 0.042 Min 0.060 0.530 0.040 0.000 -0.060 0.028 0.120 Max 0.310 0.900 0.420 0.230 0.440 0.191 0.280 25th percentile 0.105 0.660 0.080 0.000 0.025 0.050 0.155 50th percentile 0.130 0.700 0.225 0.000 0.075 0.059 0.190 75th percentile 0.150 0.840 0.260 0.015 0.165 0.072 0.215 Interquar tile 0.045 0.180 0.180 0.015 0.140 0.022 0.060

Outliers can be observed as regards the share of Natura 2000 area, population growth and unemployment rate (Figure :. Pretzier and Lagendorf in particular present an enormous population growth from 1990 to 2006 (40-45 %). Besides a lot of municipalities with a high share of UAA, there are 16 municipalities with more than 25 % of forests.

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Box plot of cluster group 3 1

-.5

%unemployed Share UAA Share forests Share Natura 2000 Pop growth 90-06 Pop density (Stendal=1) Pop of age>65

Figure 3 | Boxplot of the cluster group 3 (DE)

Due to the recent administrative reform the village Hohenberg-Krusemark has newly expanded. On top of the historical settlements Hohenberg- Krusemark, Groß Ellingen and Klein Ellingen, Hindenburg joined the municipality on the 31st of December 2009 and Altenzaun (directly by the Elbe River) followed on the 1st of January 2010. In the future the municipality of Schwarzholz, currently denying the fusion with Hohenberg-Krusemark as planned by the administrative reform, should nevertheless have to join the community of municipalities in the next months.

5.2 The Altmark Questionnaire

5.2.1 Developing the Altmark questionnaire

At the EU level, the European Regional Development Plan (ERDF), the European Structural Fund (ESF) as well as the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) are all relevant and used as funding sources in Sachsen-Anhalt. The Federal State‟s main objective to be realised in the use of EU Funds consists in convergence achieved by sustainable development, in particular through the support of growth and the improvement of employment perspectives. Each EU Fund somewhat helps to reach this main objective in addition to transversal objectives defined for each Fund. For instance in the ERDP14 adapted to Sachsen-Anhalt,

14 European Rural Development Plan

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1) protection of nature and the environment and risk prevention, 2) equality of chances by contributing to the attainment of strategic issues like i) research, development and innovation, ii) education and iii) investment support and dismantling financial obstacles especially to SMEs. All these objectives and strategic issues are defined against a common background, namely the demographic development (to be understood in the context of overall decrease in population) and its consequences.

As regards rural areas, strategies, objectives and operational measures had been harmonised with those already existing at the national and regional levels. The German national legislative framework for rural development15, translating and integrating ERDP features at the national level in order to harmonize it with the regional programmes of German Federal States, based on measures in the common task “Improvement of agricultural structures and coastal protection” (so-called GAK in German for Gemeinschaftsaufgabe “Verbesserung der Agrarstruktur und der Küstenschutzes”) contained some objectives defined at the national level in which ERDP measures could fit and/or complete already existing measures in place in Germany. Those objectives are listed below and have been used for the elaboration of the Altmark questionnaire.

15 Nationale Rahmenregelung der Bundesrepublik Deutschland für die Entwicklung ländli- cher Räume nach Artikel 15 Absatz 3 der Verordnung (EG) Nr. 1698/2005 über die Förde- rung der Entwicklung des ländlichen Raums (ELER) mit gemeinsamen Bestandteilen der regionalen Programme der deutschen Bundesländer auf der Grundlage von Maßnahmen der Gemeinschaftsaufgabe „Verbesserung der Agrarstruktur und des Küstenschutzes“ (GAK).

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Table 19 | Objectives defined at the German level for rural development 1 Improvement of competitiveness in agriculture and forestry 1.1 Improvement of productivity/profitability in agriculture and forestry 1.2 Improvement of trade opportunities and of market structure 1.3 Improvement of product quality 1.4 Improvement of the protection of environment, flora and fauna 1.5 Improvement of the protection of coasts and protection against floods 2 Improvement of the environment and landscapes 2.1 Ensuring/Improvement of the state / diversity of natural / protected areas and local fauna and flora 2.2 Prevention and reduction of emissions and flows of pollutants in/from soils, water and air through adapted management measures 2.3 Maintaining land for agriculture and promoting sustainable agriculture 2.4 Elaboration of an environmentally and diversity friendly livestock husbandry 2.5 Enhancement of stable and natural forests 3 Quality of life in rural areas and diversification of rural economy 3.1 Ensuring incomes and creation of jobs 3.2 Improvement of life quality and ensuring of perspectives for the future 3.3 Preservation resp. creation of minimal provision of goods and services 3.4 Preservation or re-creation of rural natural and cultural heritage 3.5 Preservation and improvement of leisure and resting places in rural areas

Source: German RDP, reprising goals as defined in the German national strategy for rural areas (Bund-Länder-Gemeinschaftsaufgabe „Verbesserung der Agrarstruktur und des Küstenschutzes“ (GAK)).

Policy documents at the Sachsen-Anhalt level, reporting use and objectives of each European Fund, explicitly mention whether there are more oriented towards rural or urban areas. Whereas ESF and EFRD preferentially target towns and urban zones as well as long term or huge projects at the regional or inter-regional levels, EAFRD targets rural areas in all relevant fields, from nature protection to investments in infrastructures. As the agricultural sector and/or the forestry sector are the main economic sectors in the Altmark, objectives as defined in Table 19 will serve as the basis for communication with regional stakeholders and local actors (mostly farmers and people employed in the agricultural sector). Moreover, the provision at the Altmark level of an Integrated Rural Development Concept (or “ILEK”) aims at identifying specific Altmark issues to be tackled by EU Funds, especially from EAFRD. The three following objectives have been defined for the Altmark: 1) creation and protection of job opportunities and incomes, 2) protection of services for the public through adaptation to demographic change and, 3) protection of the environment and sustainable development of natural areas and cultural landscapes. Specific fields of action should help achieve those objectives, namely: 1) support of competitiveness, innovation and employment, 2) development

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of regional infrastructures, 3) protection and improvement of nature and the environment and, 4) support of collective actions and marketing initiatives.

Without having directly been used for the elaboration of our questionnaire, which has mostly benefited from EAFRD objectives as defined for Sachsen- Anhalt, those Altmark objectives are however consistent with those finally used with regional stakeholders. The final questionnaire for the Altmark appears as Appendix 1.4

5.2.2 Questionnaire administration

A series of interviews were conducted with respect to the Altmark study area in February-March 2010, and resulted in a total of 4 completed questionnaires. Two interviews were with local informants, and two with policy officials. All questionnaires were administered face-to-face. There were oriented towards the development of Hohenberg-Krusemark in the last years as well as in the Altmark as a whole. Results were triangulated with the insights gained from a series of exploratory interviews conducted in mid-2009.

Local informant interviewees were selected by snowballing from contacts made in July 2009 during a first complete round of interviews.

Table 20 | Interviewees in the Altmark case study area Interviewee type Description 1. Local resident Farmer 2. Local resident Farmer 3. Official District official, Federal State official and mayor 4. Policy Official Office for Agriculture, Land consolidation and Forestry

5.3 Results of the Altmark interviews: Introductory questions

5.3.1 Perceived changes in the case study area: village of Hohenberg-Krusemark

Thinking back over the last 20 years approximately, what are the main changes which have occurred Hohenberg-Krusemark (H-K)? Please specify the year (or time period) when each of these changes occurred.

- ca. 1,200 inhabitants, since 01.2009 two more municipalities (Hin- denburg was incorporated on 01.01.2009 and Altenzaun on 31.12.2008), Schwarzholz does not want to be incorporated (forced incorporation will follow soon)

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no changes for the administration because they were already conflated changes in this municipality have continuously occurred.

- Former mayors: o Mr. T. (90-94) . Has initiated a lot of enthusiasm . Has fetched a lot of public funds (LEADER; EU funds) . Population has increased (up to 700 inhabitants) o Mr. G. (94-2001)  vet o Mr. B. (since 2001)

- Impact of Stendal (commuters because of work) but property prices have not risen - In the past there was a nuclear power plant, now this is an industrial area.

Employment, Industry

- The decreasing population makes it difficult for the industry to employ people at all (example: paper factory) - Wages increase the further you go to the west of the Altmark - In Osterburg there is a glass factory which has also locations in Ba- varia and other countries, but none of the workers from Bavaria or other countries want to move to Osterburg because they are afraid that they have to stay there whole life at this place - Industrial area with the pulp factory (Arneburg) and paper factory (400 employees), have hardly any positive effect for H-K: the pulp factory has ca. 250 employees… among which only one lives in H-K. - In H-K there is a police station, a fire department, a hair cutter, a restaurant, a kindergarten and a primary school (4 teachers). - Biogas plants (could bring 0.5 to 1 jobs per plant) - Chicken fattening farm is planned.

Population

- A lot of young and dynamic people came to H-K during the period of Mr. T.‟s office (1990-1994) - According to a study about the Prignitz region (Eastern part beyond the Elbe plus some parts in Brandenburg) the number of inhabitants is supposed to shrink in Stendal district from 120,000 to 90,000 people: how will the countryside look then? - Especially the migration of young women to bigger cities such as Leipzig is a serious problem, lonely and low educated men are lag- ging behind - In Altenzaun the population decreased by 50% (on average it is the oldest village in Saxony-Anhalt (by inhabitants‟ age)) - Danger of politically right-wing extreme groups out of unemployed young men - Very few foreigners, not seen as welcome - The region Uckermark (in Brandenburg) is comparable to the Altmark regarding demographic change Dr. Weiß‟s statement: „The demographicl change starts in the Altmark, extends over Saxony-Anhalt and then over whole Germany“

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- An idea to keep people in the Altmark (or even to bring them): old people could pass on their houses for low prices or even for free to younger people at their death.

Housing situation:

- houses: little vacancy, new one-family houses (increased population from 620 to 700 in H-K) but now again 630 inhabitants - new housing blocks: in the past originally for agricultural employees (in the 1960s) - EU funds are intended for investments in old buildings (roofs, fa- cades) - Funds from village renewal are regularly claimed  great interest but particularly those owners of buildings which needed it most do not participate in the programme.

Major construction projects

- Between Tangermünde and Wittenberge: no bridge over the river Elbe but two ferries - A coal-fired power plant is planned (in the industrial area). The population is strongly opposed to it. - A new biogas plant will be built, next to it a chicken fattening farm (eventually) planned

Supply of services and public services

- schools: for 100 years there has been a primary school in H-K, and there is a kindergarten - English-lessons in the kindergarten, integrative care (max. 3 men- tally disabled children or children with conspicuous habits, since 2006) - Competence centre for childhood development (0-3 years) is supported - 7 schools in the Verwaltungsgemeinschaft (administrative partnership), 6 schools with more than 40 pupils per class. - According to a projection for 2025 the number of pupils will shrink to 25 per class - H-K „belongs“ to Osterburg, not Stendal. School bus: 40 minutes are necessary - Secondary school in Arneburg was closed 4 years ago, from now on pupils have to go to Stendal

Environmental quality:

- Sewage plant next to Goldbeck - Removal of sludge from ponds - population sees the coal-fired power plant as an environmental threat, odour nuisance - long distances to provide the pulp factory with wood mean an environmental burden  too far from larger forests

Miscellaneous

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- Tourism: on the river Elbe (now perhaps in Altenzaun which is located on the Elbe?) - There is an Altmark branch, e.g. asparagus from Bertkow, and Altmark cheese, but it is not so famous that producers can obtain a much higher price - Cycle paths and other paths were renewed - There is a riding club in H-K, it is famous for military riding

5.3.2 Underlying causes of any changes

Why do you think these changes have occurred? Have there been any particular events

„Natural‟ tendencies

- According to a study about the Prignitz the number of inhabitants is supposed to shrink in Stendal district from 120,000 to 90,000 people: how will the countryside then look like? - Living in the country will get more expensive (for example because of sewage infrastructure) - Faces of child poverty in the country side is not comparable to urban child poverty: in the country exclusion of opportunities to have access to cultural services - Goal for Federal State officials: strengthen centres

Changes in neighbouring municipalities or in the region

- Few centres are planned - Arneburg should remain a centre, and the strengthening of centres is important for maintaining the region, and not letting buildings and villages decay, it is also important to prevent people from moving away - New factories (paper, pulp): exploitation of the low population density and the low wage level do not make sense for the population because in relation to the enormous investments costs only few jobs are created.

Infrastructure (Investments, Disinvestments)

- Dismantling rather than creation

Political development

- 740 million Euros additional debts in one year in Saxony-Anhalt

Technological Changes

Miscellaneous

- If you are thinking ahead, one should think of dismantling!

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5.4 Importance of policy outcomes

Question 2.1 of the questionnaire asks respondents to rate the importance of key policy outcomes for the case study area. Erreur ! Source du renvoi introuvable. shows the average scores given by each of the two groups (policy officials and local residents) for each policy goal16.

Some additional issues not specifically considered in the questionnaire were mentioned by regional partners. For instance, the specific issue related to transports and infrastructures in the Altmark have been evoked. For instance, the future prolongation of the highway A14 from Magdeburg to the Baltic Sea could prevent people from leaving the region. In like manner, maintaining national roads and agricultural paths in a good state is important level both to permit a faster circulation from main towns to others but as well to better connect villages between each others. Another type of communication path, namely internet, is considered as an important issue to be tackled in rural areas.

Finally, the issue of governance and control of regional planning has been evoked as well. The sometimes very top-down specification of measures and credits and the relative division of tasks among different ministers in Sach- sen-Anhalt may not necessarily help a harmonious organisation of regional planning goals.

16 Scores denote the following: 1= In this area, this goal is of no importance 2=slightly important 3=quite important 4= definitely important 5= very important

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Table 21 | Mean ratings of policy goals in the Altmark Local Policy Policy goal residents officials 1 Competitiveness in agriculture and forestry 1.1 Productivity in agriculture and forestry 5 5 1.2 Trade opportunities and market structure 2 3.5 1.3 Product quality 2 3 1.4 Protection of environment, flora and fauna 4 3.5 1.5 Protection of coasts and against floods 2.5 4.5 2 Environment and landscapes 2.1 Condition/diversity of natural and protected 3 4 areas, local fauna and flora 2.2 Reduction of emissions and flows of pollutants 2.5 4 2.3 Maintaining land for agric and promoting sus- 5 4 tainable agriculture 2.4 Environmentally and biodiversity friendly live- 3.5 3 stock husbandry 2.5 Stable and natural forests 4 3 3 Quality of life and diversification of rural economy 3.1 Incomes and creation of jobs 4.5 5 3.2 Life quality and perspectives for the future 4.5 5 3.3 Minimum provision of goods and services 3.5 5 3.4 Rural natural and cultural heritage 1.5 4.5 3.5 Leisure and resting places in rural areas 3.5 4.5

There was a fairly close consensus between the 2 groups. The most important main goals for the region were related to issues of quality of life and diversification of the rural economy in general, as well as issues related to competitiveness in agriculture and forestry. Issues related to environment and landscapes only gained relatively low ratings except regarding natural and protected areas as well as maintaining the agricultural area and sustainable agriculture.

Regarding competitiveness in agriculture and forestry, respondents were unanimous regarding the necessity to improve productivity and profitability in agriculture and forestry. In particular, in the field of milk production which is a traditional production sector in the Altmark, there should be some means found to gain in productivity in order to face the possibility of low and/or varying milk prices in the future. The current situation of low milk prices and the feeling of farmers of not really being helped by any policy measure make it clear for them that 1) many of them are unfortunately not competitive and 2) political institutions appear not to be averse to structural

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change and the exit from the sector of the least competitive farms. Invest- ments in technologies should therefore help to increase labour productivity and indirectly farm efficiency; this is a meaningful and important regional issue. Regarding the protection of environment, flora and fauna, this is an important issue for some respondents as long as it helps maintain Altmark‟s typical character. To this extent, product quality has not been qualified as necessarily important for the region as it is either already considered as very high among the respondents, or because the Altmark is already benefiting from a specific seal for some products (asparagus and cheese for instance). For other respondents vertical integration in supply chains should be the answer towards a higher product quality as well as providing trade opportunities and improving market structure; at the same time it could help give Altmark products some more resonance.

The listed goals related to the improvement of the environment and landscapes were perceived as relatively important especially the ensuring and improvement of the state and diversity of natural and protected areas and local fauna and flora on the one hand, and the preservation of the agricultural area and sustainable agriculture on the other. The preservation of typical landscapes is an issue which has been evoked as important at the local level.

At last, issues related to quality of life in rural areas as well as to the diversification of rural economy have been for most of them rated very high. In a region where demographic change has rather to be understood as decrease in population, regional planning issues are of utmost importance for future development in the region. As perspectives offered on the job market are quite low and most of opportunities offered in the agricultural sector, respondents expressed some doubt on the usefulness of measures encouraging diversification at any price, or if then, it should be supplemented by measures supplying better infrastructures including the provision of internet and better transport alternatives.

5.5 Competitiveness in agriculture and forestry

Table 21 shows that, in the environmental domain, two policy outcomes have been identified by respondents as of importance for the Altmark. Table 22 displays the possible effectiveness of the measures which are available in support of these policy goals.

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Table 22 | Perceived capacity of measures to achieve more competitiveness in agriculture and forestry in the Altmark Policy goal and related measures Capability17 Capability

Mean score, Mean score, local informant policy official outcome = Productivity in agriculture and forestry 111. Vocational training and information 2 5 114. Advisory services for farmers and for- 2 3 esters 121-1 Promotion of on-farm investment 5 5 (AFP) 121-2 Innovative investments (formerly fund 1 4-5 for credit for investments) 125-1 Land consolidation 1 4 125-2 Construction of agricultural paths 5 5 outcome = Trade opportunities and Not relevant Not relevant market structure 123 Adding value to agricultural and for- - - estry products 124 Cooperation for development of new - - products, processes and technologies 125-1 Land consolidation - - 125-2 Construction of agricultural paths - - outcome = Improvement of product Not relevant Not relevant quality 111. Vocational training and information - - 114. Advisory services for farmers and for- - - esters 123 Adding value to agricultural and for- - - estry products 124 Cooperation for development of new - - products, processes and technologies outcome = Protection of environment, Not relevant flora and fauna 111. Vocational training and information 2 - 114. Advisory services for farmers and for- 2 - esters 121-1 Promotion of on-farm investment 4 - (AFP) 121-2 Innovative investments (formerly fund 1 -

17 1=not capable/measure does not exist/measure unknown ; 2=hardly capable ; 3=moderately capable ; 4=pretty capable; 5=very capable

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for credit for investments) outcome = Protection of coasts and Not relevant against floods 125-3 Improvement and extension of for- - 2 estry infrastructure 126 Restoring agricultural production poten- - 2 tial damaged by natural disasters

Some of the available measures were viewed by respondents as being unlikely to make any difference to the achievement of the policy goals, or of being inappropriate for the case study area. The following sections report why the measures were considered deficient and also, where possible, to propose improvements and/or new measures

5.5.1 Productivity in agriculture and forestry

Respondents were unanimous regarding the positive impact of measures encouraging on-farm investment (covering parts of investments in stable or machinery) to help improving productivity and solvability in agriculture and forestry. Similarly, the construction of agricultural paths (which typically are dirt tracks, one vehicle wide, created and maintained by landowners) not only benefits the farmers (for them to more easily participate to meetings or discussions outside their farm) but the whole local population as well; the only problem is that the maintenance has to be performed by landowners, which may not always be a trivial task. Measures related to vocational training and advisory service are either considered not efficient because of the already high level of qualification of farmers in the region, or could be efficient if those individuals needing it could be more easily targeted in the region. It seems difficult to design a really efficient measure to bring people together to exchange ideas and information. Land consolidation is combined with infrastructures measures which cover 5% of expenses; water issues (irri- gation, retention) have to be considered as well though. Conflicts around pieces of land are however unavoidable.

5.5.2 Trade opportunities and market structure and Product quality

The necessity to improve product quality, market structure and to provide trade opportunities is not considered as a relevant goal for the region because, for instance, product quality is already considered as quite high by respondents (good technologies and severe regulations). Bad quality may therefore be due to bad management. Although there are advisory services and opportunities to get information to improve product quality (in which sense measures related to these issues would improve this quality) it seems difficult to get the two parties in contact. On the one hand time is short for the farm manager and on the other hand it is difficult to know which would need some advice. Measures to encourage cooperation to develop new products (including vertical coordination in the milk sector) could be a good thing but, unfortunately, how to implement such a measure? The one listed here is not taking place in the region.

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5.5.3 Protection of environment, flora and fauna

The success of on-farm investment measures to improve and protect environment, flora and fauna is conditioned by sufficient credits to reach the goal and by the presence and the help of an advisor to help the manager to do the right things in this field. It recalls again the problem of bad communication between managers and advisors who should be able to find each other and to work more closely together, not only in nature protected areas. One should pay attention at the relevance and feasibility of environmentally friendly initiatives to guarantee responsiveness and acceptance at the local level.

5.5.4 Protection of coasts and against floods

There are two aspects to consider here: prevention of floods and management of crises. As regards prevention (including the protection of coasts), the task is rather devoted to the district and the regional level. One respondent emphasized the role of retention systems to prevent from future droughts; but at the same time waters do not seem to be very well controlled in the Altmark as required by the Water Directive. However, the two measures listed did not seem to be able to reach their goal in particular regarding the proper management of crises. For instance, in 2002 during the last big flood, both competence and coordination problems appeared. Locals were not con- sulted for anything before it happened and afterwards, making it unavoidable for overwhelmed municipalities to call for the army to help manage the crisis.

5.6 Environment and landscapes

Table 23 shows that, in the environmental and landscape domains, two to three policy outcomes have been identified by respondents as of importance for the Altmark. It displays the possible effectiveness of the measures which are available in support of these policy goals.

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Table 23 | Perceived capacity of measures to achieve the improvement of environment and landscapes in the Altmark Policy goal and related measures Capability18 Capability

Mean score, Mean score, local informant policy official outcome = Condition/diversity of natural and protected areas, local fauna and Not relevant flora 214-2. Voluntary environmental protection - 1 programmes 214-3. Conservation of genetic resources - 3 outcome = Reduction of emissions and Not relevant flows of pollutants 213 Natura 2000 payments (Directive - 3-4 2000/60/EC) 214-1 Support for a local and market adapted - 2-3 agriculture (MSL) 214-2. Voluntary environmental protection - 1 programmes outcome = Area covering and sustainable agriculture 212 Payments to farmers in areas with handi- 3 5 caps, other than mountain areas 214-1 Support for a local and market adapted 4 4 agriculture (MSL) 214-2 Voluntary environmental protection 1 1 programmes outcome = Environmentally and diversity friendly livestock husbandry 214-1 Support for a local and market adapted 4 1 agriculture (MSL) 214-3. Conservation of genetic resources 2 1 outcome = Stable and natural forests 221 First afforestation of agricultural land 4 3-4 223 First afforestation of non-agricultural land 4 3-4 224 Natura 2000 payments 1 1 225 Forest environment payments 1 1 227 Support for non-productive investments 1 1

18 1=not capable/measure does not exist/measure unknown ; 2=hardly capable ; 3=moderately capable ; 4=pretty capable; 5=very capable

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Some of the available measures were viewed by respondents as being unlikely to make any difference for the achievement of the policy goals, or as being inappropriate for the case study area. The following sections report why the measures were considered deficient and also, where possible, to propose improvements and/or new measures

5.6.1 Condition/diversity of natural and protected areas, local fauna and flora

Respondents considered it important to keep natural and protected areas as well as flora and fauna in their current state, without finding it necessary to introduce new species. However, if the two measures thought to reach this goal were not considered as capable of reaching this goal it is either because money would be lacking or because the economic attractiveness of such measure would not be decisive. They are rather used by hobby farmers who for instance decide to keep very rare animal specie, this not being a general rule in the Altmark. A respondent stressed that deciding upon such measure from outside the region at a high level may not necessarily fulfil local needs, as benefiting from nature and local fauna and flora implies to live near or in the region.

5.6.2 Reduction of emissions and flows of pollutants

Regarding this issue, local informants did not consider it as relevant because standards would already be high enough in the region not to induce any increase in pollutants and emissions. However they regretted the lack of support regarding the MSL measures in Sachsen-Anhalt. Similarly, policy officials regretted the discrepancy between the design of some of these measures and the real local issues which should be closely defined and discussed with local farmers. This would have probably reduced operating expenses from the administration side and permitted farmers to help design meaningful measures corresponding to local issues. It is to be noted that the voluntary basis contained in one of the measures (214-2) appears to be without any effect towards reaching the goal set here.

5.6.3 Area covering and sustainable agriculture

Although this issue is considered as very relevant from both sides (policy officials and local farmers), local informants regretted the lack of support regarding the MSL measures in Sachsen-Anhalt (for instance the possibility to re-introduce a 5-years crop rotation which would help reintroducing local leguminous plants in the rotation and therefore decrease the regional de- pendence to external proteins to feed dairy cows; extensive grassland management as a measure would further make sense in the Altmark as well) or the strengthening of rules (as regards limiting livestock units per hectare) which prevents further participation in the measure. Locals specified they were not located in a handicapped area; however such measures would make sense according to policy officials to guarantee the coverage of areas by a sustainable agriculture.

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5.6.4 Environmentally and diversity friendly livestock husbandry

Although this goal is considered as important by respondents both measures are considered as inefficient (policy officials) because standard rules are already severe enough, or because money would anyway be lacking to do anything to try to reach the goal.

5.6.5 Stable and natural forests

Afforestation measures on both agricultural and non agricultural land are considered as capable of enhancing stable and natural forests. However, attention should be paid to the correct mixture of tree species and not introduce species like oaks which are inappropriate on most Altmark soils except where soils are good enough for them. It is curious that support is only provided when planting deciduous trees where other species would be more suitable for the region (for instance pines). Again, locals fear a lack of money if a highly suitable measure was introduced in the region. Other measures are otherwise either too short-term to allow anything sustainable (measure 224) or do not exist/are not implemented at all in Sachsen-Anhalt/should be managed at the Federal State or the national level and reimburse local owners for keeping trees on their land.

Quality of life in rural areas and diversification of rural Table 24 shows that, in the economic domain, 3 policy outcomes have unanimously been identified by respondents as of importance for the Altmark. It displays the possible effectiveness of the measures which are available in support of these policy goals. Some of these measures are rather targeted towards municipalities (measures 321-1 to 321-6 and 322).

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Table 24 | Perceived capacity of measures to improve quality of life in rural areas and provide possibilities for diversification the Altmark Policy goal and related measures Capability19 Capability Mean score, Mean score, local informant policy official outcome = Incomes and creation of jobs 311 Diversification into non-agricultural 1 5 activities 312 Support for the creation and develop- 1 1 ment of micro-enterprises 321-5 Support of the provision of bio ener- 5 5 gies through the construction of distribution networks (biogas and heating conducts) 321-6 Provision of DSL in rural areas 1 4-5 341 Skills acquisition and animation for 1 3 the creation of a local development strategy outcome = Life quality and perspectives for the future 311 Diversification into non-agricultural 1 4 activities 312 Support for the creation and develop- 1 4 ment of micro-enterprises 321-1 Infrastructures in the field of water 3 3 disposal 321-2 Infrastructures in the field of potable 3 3 water 321-3 Infrastructures in the field of invest- 3 5 ments in small schools 321-4 Infrastructures in the field of invest- 3 5 ments in kindergartens 321-5 Support of the provision of bio ener- 5 4 gies through the construction of distribution networks (biogas and heating conducts) 321-6 Provision of DSL in rural areas 3 5 322 Village renewal and development 5 5

19 1=not capable/measure does not exist/measure unknown ; 2=hardly capable ; 3=moderately capable ; 4=pretty capable; 5=very capable

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341 Skills acquisition and animation for 1 1 the creation of a local development strategy outcome = Minimal provision of goods and services 321-1 Infrastructures in the field of water 4 4 disposal 321-2 Infrastructures in the field of potable 4 4 water 321-3 Infrastructures in the field of invest- 4 5 ments in small schools 321-4 Infrastructures in the field of invest- 4 5 ments in kindergartens 321-5 Support of the provision of bio ener- 5 4 gies through the construction of distribution networks (biogas and heating conducts) 321-6 Provision of DSL in rural areas 4 5 341 Skills acquisition and animation for 1 1 the creation of a local development strategy outcome = Rural natural and cultural Not relevant heritage 311 Diversification into non-agricultural - 4 activities 321-1 Infrastructures in the field of water - 5 disposal 321-2 Infrastructures in the field of potable - 4 water 321-3 Infrastructures in the field of invest- - 4 ments in small schools 321-4 Infrastructures in the field of invest- - 5 ments in kindergartens 322 Village renewal and development - ? 341 Skills acquisition and animation for - 1 the creation of a local development strategy outcome = Leisure and resting places in rural areas 311 Diversification into non-agricultural 1 5 activities 313 Encouragement of tourism activities 1 4 321-5 Support of the provision of bio ener- 2 1

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gies through the construction of distribution networks (biogas and heating conducts) 321-6 Provision of DSL in rural areas 4 5 322 Village renewal and development 4 5 341 Skills acquisition and animation for 1 1 the creation of a local development strategy

5.6.6 Incomes and creation of jobs

Regarding this issue, considered as very important by all respondents, locals differ from policy officials regarding measures encouraging diversification to non agricultural activities. Locals consider there is not much alternative in rural areas outside agriculture in the Altmark. They rather consider alternatives to get income in addition to agriculture as a sort of “insurance” (for instance in the biogas production field) as more relevant. Policy officials consider infrastructure (transport, internet) as important milestones towards ensuring employment in the region. They regret the practical absence of support for microenterprises (measure 312) whereas it would make sense for the region. Village renewal measures are unanimously considered as relevant for ensuring jobs and incomes in the region.

5.6.7 Life quality and perspectives for the future

Again, village renewal measures definitely help to reach the present goal. All other goals especially those related to investments in infrastructures at the municipality level (measures 321-1 to 321-6) are relevant as well. Regarding schools, policy officials regret that there is a minimal number of pupils set at the Federal State level to keep classes open (minimum 40 pupils), which will be less and less attainable in the Altmark in the future. This absolutely does not take constraints in rural areas into account where depopulation is strongest.

5.6.8 Minimum provision of goods and services

Here respondents recall the importance of infrastructures (roads and internet) to provide local population with minimum services.

5.6.9 Rural natural and cultural heritage

Local informants did not consider the goal as relevant for the region in contrast to policy officials. Whereas they put the impact of the measure for raising environmental awareness of population into question, they consider here the village renewal measures as very relevant to reach to goal of conservation of rural natural and cultural heritage. This, however, does not work without participation of locals.

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5.6.10 Leisure and resting places in rural areas

Measures related to village renewal and to the provision of DSL are, in particular, considered as having a positive impact on the reaching of the present goal.

5.7 Conclusions for the Altmark case study area

From the interview information it has been possible to identify the current EU policy goals which are perceived as important for the case study area, and the likely effectiveness of related policy measures. A comparison was made of the perceptions of the 2 different stakeholders groups. In Table 25 those outcomes considered as important by only one of the two groups have been marked (LI for outcomes important only to local informants; PO for those important only to policy officials). As regards measures able to deliver the corresponding outcome, all measures which on average reached a score of 3 among all respondents are indicated in the following table, therefore ignoring perception differences between groups and respondents.

There has been a general consensus observed between local informants and policy officials as regards economic and social goals. However, the main difference was the importance devoted to environmental outcomes. Whereas policy officials rated two outcomes as being important for the region for the improvement of the environment and landscapes, local informants only considered those related to agricultural activities as really relevant (protection of environment, flora and fauna for the improvement of competitiveness in agriculture and forestry) and particularly well supported by the promotion of on-farm investment. Their argument mainly lay in the already high product quality delivered in the Altmark due to high standards established in the sector.

Table 25 | Policy measures able to deliver policy goals, German Case study area Policy goal and related measures Derivation of measure Improvement of competitiveness in agriculture and forestry outcome = Productivity in agriculture and forestry 111. Vocational training and information Current measure 121-1 Promotion of on-farm investment (AFP) Current measure 121-2 Innovative investments (formerly fund for credit for Current measure investments) 125-1 Land consolidation Current measure 125-2 Construction of agricultural paths Current measure outcome = Protection of environment, flora and fauna (LI)

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121-1 Promotion of on-farm investment (AFP) Current measure outcome = Protection of coasts and against floods ? New measure(s) to create Improvement of the environment and landscapes outcome = Condition/diversity of natural and protected areas, local fauna and flora (PO) 214-3. Conservation of genetic resources Current measure outcome = Reduction of emissions and flows of pollutants (PO) 213 Natura 2000 payments (Directive 2000/60/EC) Current measure outcome = Maintaining agricultural area and promoting sustainable agriculture 212 Payments to farmers in areas with handicaps, other Current measure than mountain areas 214-1 Support for a local and market adapted agriculture Current measure (MSL) outcome = Environmentally and diversity friendly livestock husbandry 214-1 Support for a local and market adapted agriculture Current measure (MSL) outcome = Stable and natural forests 221 First afforestation of agricultural land Current measure 223 First afforestation of non-agricultural land Current measure Quality of life in rural areas and diversification of rural economy outcome = Incomes and creation of jobs 311 Diversification into non-agricultural activities Current measure 321-5 Support of the provision of bio energies through Current measure the construction of distribution networks (biogas and heating conducts) 321-6 Provision of DSL in rural areas Current measure outcome = Life quality and perspectives for the future 311 Diversification into non-agricultural activities Current measure 312 Support for the creation and development of micro- Current measure enterprises 321-1 Infrastructures in the field of water disposal Current measure 321-2 Infrastructures in the field of potable water Current measure 321-3 Infrastructures in the field of investments in small Current measure

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schools 321-4 Infrastructures in the field of investments in kin- Current measure dergartens 321-5 Support of the provision of bio energies through Current measure the construction of distribution networks (biogas and heating conducts) 321-6 Provision of DSL in rural areas Current measure 322 Village renewal and development Current measure outcome = Minimal provision of goods and services 321-1 Infrastructures in the field of water disposal Current measure 321-2 Infrastructures in the field of potable water Current measure 321-3 Infrastructures in the field of investments in small Current measure schools 321-4 Infrastructures in the field of investments in kin- Current measure dergartens 321-5 Support of the provision of bio energies through Current measure the construction of distribution networks (biogas and heating conducts) 321-6 Provision of DSL in rural areas Current measure outcome = Rural natural and cultural heritage (PO) 311 Diversification into non-agricultural activities Current measure 321-1 Infrastructures in the field of water disposal Current measure 321-2 Infrastructures in the field of potable water Current measure 321-3 Infrastructures in the field of investments in small Current measure schools 321-4 Infrastructures in the field of investments in kin- Current measure dergartens outcome = Leisure and resting places in rural areas 311 Diversification into non-agricultural activities Current measure 313 Encouragement of tourism activities Current measure 321-6 Provision of DSL in rural areas Current measure 322 Village renewal and development Current measure

Mainly existing policy measures were considered able to reach selected outcomes, with some limitations though:

- Lack of money: believing local informants some meaningful measures such as for the support of a local and market oriented agriculture (MSL), in other words for agri-environmental measures able to

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better utilize the “overwhelming” area in grasslands typical for the Altmark region or to reintroduce leguminous plants in crop rotation; voluntary scheme, if relevant for the region, would certainly suffer from the same problem believing the respondents, - Poorly designed measures: those related to the protection of coasts and against floods have been considered for instance as not able to reach this outcome without a better repartition at municipality, district and Federal State levels in terms of competence and financial capabilities.

However, measures such as the support for the promotion of on-farm investments, for village renewal and those related to rural infrastructure (measures 321-1 to 321-6) were unanimously recognized as contributing to the delivery of corresponding outcomes, sometimes beyond the than only one most relevant for respondents.

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5.8 Annex to Chapter 5: Policy documents

Bericht über die demographische Entwicklung Sachsen-Anhalts 1990 bis 2007, Ministerium für Landesentwicklung und Verkehr, Anlage 1, 2009.

Bericht zur Stadtentwicklung und zum Stadtumbau Ost sowie zur Mieten- und Wohnungsmarktentwicklung im Land Sachsen-Anhalt. Berichtsjahre 2006 und 2007. Ministerium für Landesentwicklung und Verkehr und Inves- titionsbank in Kooperation mit dem Institut für Strukturpolitik und Wirt- schaftsförderung gemeinnützige GmbH (isw Institut), 20.10.2006.

Der demographische Wandel und die Tourismuswirtschaft in Sachsen- Anhalt. Eine Studie der Hochschule Harz im Auftrag des Ministeriums für Landesentwicklung und Verkehr des Landes Sachsen-Anhalt in Kooperation mit dem Ministerium für Wirtschaft und Arbeit des Landes Sachsen-Anhalt. Stand: 31.12. 2007, mit Überarbeitungen, Stand 30. Mai 2008.

Entwicklungsprogramm für den ländlichen Raum des Landes Sachsen- Anhalt (EPLR), Förderzeitraum 2007 bis 2013, Stand 16.07.2009, Staatkanz- lei des Landes Sachsen-Anhalt, Ministerium für Landwirtschaft und Umwelt, Landesanstalt für Landwirtschaft, Forsten und Gartenbau.

Gericke, T., Karig, U. (1996): Projekt „Mobilität junger Erwachsener des Frei- staates Sachsen“. Abschlussbericht. Leipzig.

Integriertes Ländliches Entwicklungskonzept (ILEK), Strategie einer nach- haltigen Entwicklung in der Region Altmark (Aktualisierung), Landkreise Altmarkkreis Salzwedel und Stendal, am 23. Nov. 2006 vom Kreistag des Landkreises Stendal beschlossen.

Nationale Rahmenregelung der Bundesrepublik Deutschland für die Ent- wicklung ländlicher Räume nach Artikel 15 Absatz 3 der Verordnung (EG) Nr. 1698/2005 über die Förderung der Entwicklung des ländlichen Raums (ELER) mit gemeinsamen Bestandteilen der regionalen Programme der deutschen Bundesländer auf der Grundlage von Maßnahmen der Gemein- schaftsaufgabe „Verbesserung der Agrarstruktur und des Küstenschutzes“ (GAK), Konsolidierte Fassung, Bundesministerium für Ernährung, Land- wirtschaft und Verbraucherschutz.

Operationelles Programm EFRE Sachsen-Anhalt 2007–2013 vom 24. Sep- tember 2007 , CCI 2007 DE 16 1 PO 007, Entscheidung der Kommission vom 22.10.2007 K(2007)5254

Operationelles Programm ESF Sachsen-Anhalt 2007 – 2013 vom 7. Novem- ber 2007, CCI 2007 DE 051 PO 005, Entscheidung der Kommission vom 22.11.2007 K(2007)5810.

Regionales Entwicklungskonzept Altmark [REK II]. Leitziel und Leitbilder für die regionale Entwicklung der Altmark. Regionalmanagement Altmark [RemA], Dr. Ulf Schmidt. Stendal/Salzwedel, Oktober/November 2003.

Zukunftschancen junger Frauen in Sachsen-Anhalt - Zukunftschancen junger Familien in Sachsen-Anhalt, FH Magdeburg-Stendal im Auftrag des Landes- regierung Sachsen-Anhalt, Ministerium für Bau und Verkehr, Ministerium für Gesundheit und Soziales, Abschlussbericht, 30. November 2004.

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6 UNITED KINGDOM PILOT CASE STUDY AREA

6.1 Description of the UK case study area

Cluster analysis identified the LAU2 area, Bradwell ward, as central to its cluster. Bradwell ward, located in Derbyshire Dales District, occupies 2,400 Marian Raley hectares and has a few minor settlements scattered through it and one larger Guy Garrod settlement (Bradwell). The total population is approximately 1500.

This cluster may be characterised as having a low population density (0.78 people per ha in Bradwell), modest positive change in population size between the 1991 and 2001 Censuses, and above average employment in agriculture, the hospitality sector and mining/quarrying.

Agricultural Census boundaries do not coincide with ward (LAU2) boundaries. However, it appears that the Bradwell area has only 7 farms of 50 ha or above. To improve agricultural coverage, it was decided to include the adja- cent LAU2 area of Hope Valley which covers 19,000 hectares, and has approximately 40 farms of 50 ha or above, and has a population of 3800 in 2 main settlements (Castleton and Hope). Population density in Hope Valley is 0.2 people per ha. Although having similar population characteristics, the ward also includes a large Natura 2000 area, on account of its gritstone moorland habitats. The area received agri-environment payments at a relatively early, following designation as the North Peak Environmentally Sensi- tive Area in 1988. These wards lie in a LEADER approach area.

Together, the 2 wards comprise an area of very high landscape quality which lies in the Peak District National Park (PDNK), a designation which confers the highest level of landscape protection in England. It is an upland area, designated as a Severely Disadvantaged Area, whose dominant land use is extensive livestock farming. There are extensive tracts of heather moorland, much of it designated under Natura 2000. Part of Hope Valley ward forms an important water catchment.

Due to its National Park status, built development is very strictly controlled, and in general little new build is allowed, although rules for agriculture are more lenient. In conflict with the ethos of landscape protection is the activity of limestone quarrying, and the existence in Hope village of a cement works with a tall and highly visible chimney. This development, and some quarry permissions, pre-date National Park status, designated in 1951. The cement works, together with a medium sized manufacturing firm in Bradwell (Neu- berg), are the two largest single employers in the case study area.

Although having a remote „feel‟, the railway line between the two cities of Manchester and Sheffield runs through the Hope Valley, making it an attrac-

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tive location for commuting. In fact, there is commuting in both directions, with some jobs at the cement works filled by city-dwellers. On account of its high scenic quality and range of activities on offer (walking, hang-gliding, cave exploration), and fairly easy road access, very large numbers of recrea- tional day visits and a smaller number of overnight visits to take place, especially in the Hope Valley.

6.2 The UK Questionnaire

6.2.1 Developing the UK questionnaire

To construct the questionnaire, policy documents for the main European funding streams which are currently operational in the relevant NUTS 1 area (East Midland Government Office Region) were obtained. These relate to the EFRD, Social Fund (ESF) and EAFRD. For each funding stream, a list of simplified policy objectives and simplified associated measures was compiled and is presented as Annex 1 to this chapter. A list of the policy documents used in constructing the questionnaire is presented in Section 6.8.

Examination of policy goals reveals that LEADER offers some scope for community projects. Other than that, coverage of social and cultural goals is very limited. ESF policy measures are narrowly targeted at overcoming dis- advantage by improving employment prospects, and core social goals such as access to services or community cohesion are ignored. There is also an urban focus. While a few rural LAU2 areas in the East Midlands perform badly with respect to deprivation indicators, the majority of disadvantaged areas lie in towns and cities. ERDF is almost exclusively aimed at improving business performance, and several of the economic goals under ERDF (e.g. related to innovation and designated priority sectors) evidently are directed at the larger firms in urban areas.

Support to rural areas is instead provided in the RDPE. However, apart from a few LEADER measures, it is almost entirely directed at land-based businesses, where diversification of the rural economy is to be achieved only by diversification of farm and forestry businesses.

The final questionnaire appears as Appendix A1.5

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6.2.2 Questionnaire administration

A series of 7 face-to-face interviews were conducted with respect to the Bradwell and Hope Valley study area in February and March 2010. Four interviews were with local informants, and three with policy officials.

In practice it was found that some participants were not confident to answer questions across all areas covered by the questionnaire, in particular questions relating to the competitiveness of firms in the land-based or other sectors, and to policies affecting water and soil quality. Therefore a sample of only 2 completed the farm business section, although both of them were well- qualified to do so being farmers and farm advisors. To strengthen the responses relating to the competitiveness of the non land-based sector, a spe- cialist business advisor was questioned on that topic.

Local informant interviewees were selected by 2 means: directly from the lists of members of the Parish Councils in the study area; and by snowballing from contacts. Policy officials were identified as staff members of the local authority, the Peak District National Park and the public business support agency which is called Business Link who are professionally involved with the case study area.

Table 26 | Interviewees in the UK Case study area Interviewee type Description 1. Local resident Parish Councillor, Bradwell 2. Local resident Parish Councillor, Hope Valley 3. Local resident Parish Councillor, Hope Valley 4. Local resident Farmer/agri-environment officer 5. Policy Official Farmer/farm business adviser 6. Policy Official Peak District National Park officer 7. Policy Official Economic Development officer, Local Authority 8. Official (partial interview) Business adviser employed by Busi- ness Link in rural areas

6.3 Results of the UK interviews: Introductory questions

6.3.1 Perceived changes in the case study area

There have been marked changes in agriculture in the last 20 years in the Hope Valley area. The most obvious has been the loss of dairy farms, falling from 38 to 3 dairy farms, with farmers switching to beef and sheep. During this time farm incomes have fallen leading to increased flock and herd sizes made possible by renting land in the lowlands and leading to many more stock movements. The number employed in farming has decreased, with

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greater reliance on non-farming sources of income which are perceived as more reliable than farming. Agri-environment schemes also provide a means of diversifying and stabilising farm income. Initiatives to promote good moorland management and restoration of moorland vegetation have led to (as yet) modest environmental improvements.

In general, the study area has experienced relatively few marked changes within the last 20 years. This may be partly attributed to the severe restrictions on built development (both housing and industrial development) existing within the National Park. Furthermore, some of the changes identified by respondents which had occurred within the last 20 years, will reflect wider (national) trends.

A single development outside the area which may make a small difference is the opening of a higher education institution in Buxton. It is a campus of the University of Derby and specialises in the catering/tourism sector. (More needed). Otherwise, respondents could not identify other exogenous changes.

There was concern about losses in traditional local jobs. Manufacturing and quarrying have both experienced steady falls in labour as productivity has increased due to mechanisation.

The age structure of the population in Hope and Castleton (though not Brad- well) was steadily changing to contain an increasing proportion of old people. There are also substantial numbers of incomers (people who grew up elsewhere) including retired professionals. The relative price of housing has increased and it is increasingly difficult for people born locally in non- profesisonal occupations to afford to live locally.

Although the total population shows a modest increase, it was generally believed that the number of children has decreased. Although primary schools remain, they are smaller than formerly and their continuation is perceived as threatened. Access to basic services for local people has diminished. The number of food shops has fallen, and in Castleton have been almost entirely replaced by tourist shops. A small number of shops catering for locals remain in Hope and Bradwell. The story for healthcare is more optimistic with a strengthening of local provision in recent years due to national policies on healthcare organisation.

Much increased volumes of traffic and tourists were also reported.

6.3.2 Underlying causes of changes

A number of factors were proposed as underlying the changes in agriculture. Prior to the 1994 the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) paid farmers per head of beef and sheep. Although supporting farm incomes, the headage payments led to overgrazing, and was damaging to moorland vegetation. Fol- lowing the MacSharry Reform of the CAP (implemented in 1994) there was a change from headage to area payments which had a sharp downward effect on farm incomes. The dairy sector experienced the restructuring of the dairy supply chain when the Milk Marketing Board (MMB) was dismantled. The

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MMB ensured farmers received a minimum price for milk regardless of their location. With lower product prices, the prevalent herd size of 70 to 90 cows was no longer viable.

Two further blows to farm incomes came through animal disease: Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) in the mid-1980s and Foot and Mouth disease in 2000 to 2001. To survive, farms reduced labour, became part-time holdings with off-farm work of increasing importantce, diversified, or expanded the herd/flock size buy acquiring land in the lowlands.

Policy has explicitly supported environmental management. The Northern Peak Area was one of the second tranche of Environmentally Sensitive Areas to be designated in 1988. More recently, a long term restoration project is addressing the poor state of heather moorland in the Dark Peak area, although progress is necessarily slow.

The lack of affordable housing arises from the very strict enforcement of planning policies in the National Park and the near-fixed housing stock. This is a very attractive place to live, which is also commutable to Manchester and Sheffield, and attracts in-migration. Indeed, the Hope Valley line (running from Sheffield to Manchester with a spur to Buxton) is the last remaining line in the Peak District, following the closure of the Longdendale line in the 1970 and is thus the only option for rail commuting or day visits by rail.

Consequently there is upward pressure on house prices. Together with a lack of affordable housing, it is relatively difficult for young people to set up home in the area, especially those with low incomes. This, and a national trend of ageing in the population, has contributed to an ageing community. There has also been a change in the employment structure with fewer jobs in the primary sector, and greater numbers of self-employed professionals. Planning control probably limits the stock of jobs since many proposed business prem- ises will be incompatible with National Park designation on account of their size, or activity, or because extra costs are incurred in meeting design standards.

In common with many rural places, greater personal mobility (car ownership) has improved residents‟ access to larger shops in nearby towns and the availability of local shops has consequently diminshed. By contrast, improvements in local healthcare have emerged through a national restructuring of delivery and a pro-active approach by local healthcare professionals who seized the opportunity to improve provision.

Greater affluence, mobility and leisure time are likely to have led to substantially increased numbers of leisure day visits. Traffic from the Lafarge cement works has decreased substantially due to a large expansion in railway infrastructure associated with the cement works.

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Importance of policy outcomes

Respondents were asked to rate the importance of key policy outcomes for the case study area. Table 27 shows the average scores given by each of the two groups (policy officials and local informants) for each policy goal20. Most goals were judged to be at least „quite important‟ (scoring 3 or greater). There was a fairly close consensus between the 2 groups.

Table 27 | Rating of the importance of policy goals in the UK Case study area Number Mean score Local informants Policy officials

N= Mean N= Mean Policy goal score score Environment Safeguard and improve 4 2.3 3 4.3 biodiversity Safeguard and improve 4 4.5 3 4.3 landscape Reducing the causes and 4 2.5 3 3.3 impacts of climate change Water and soil conservation 4 3.5 3 4.3 (including peat) Social Enhance opportunity for 4 3.8 3 4.3 employment and training in rural areas Enhance quality of life in 4 3.8 3 3.6 rural areas Economic Improve economy by im- 4 4.5 3 4.7 proving the competitiveness of land-based businesses Improve economy by im- 4 3.5 3 4 proving the competitiveness of businesses in other sectors Increase the diversity of the 4 3.8 3 4.3 rural economy

Two themes emerged very strongly from discussions. Firstly, responses are strongly influenced by the context of being in an area of very high landscape

20 Scores denote the following: 1= In this area, this goal is of no importance 2=slightly important 3=quite important 4= definitely important 5= very important

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value which is regarded as fundamental to the character of the area. To this end it is essential to maintain farming and suitable farming practices. Fur- thermore, restrictions on built development limit the size and types of other economic activities and the provision of new housing. Planning policy thus shapes the future development of the area by restricting the range and number of jobs and also population growth.

Secondly, within the constraints imposed by National Park status, it was important to have a buoyant local economy. The provision of jobs would also be an important factor in maintaining quality of life. Although farming is essential to maintain the landscape, and tourism brings in wealth, it was accepted that it was necessary to have other types of business to provide a resilient local economy. (In 2000 and 2001 both these sectors were devastated by an outbreak of food and mouth disease in cattle and sheep.) The wider area has seen a range of in-migrant professionals setting up businesses, many home- based, and some taking on staff, made possible by the internet and proximity to the cities of Sheffield and Manchester. There was general recognition that the long-standing activities of quarrying and the Hope cement works, though compromising landscape quality, provide valuable jobs.

Social conditions were regarded as already generally high so further en- hancements should not be a top priority. However certain groups faced difficulties which policy might address (e.g. difficulties in getting a job for young people without access to a car). A social issue of very high importance to respondents but not addressed by European policy is the lack of affordable housing and its implication for retaining young people in the area.

The only goals of low importance related to biodiversity and climate change, as perceived by residents. It appears that the concept of Biodiversity may not hold a great deal of meaning. Furthermore it is difficult to relate the processes of climate change (a highly complex subject) to management of resources in the local area. Three features of the area appear especially relevant to the climate change debate: the presence of large areas of peat by which carbon is locked up, currently in poor condition but for which a restoration programme has begun; the Hope cement works which apparently produces large amounts of carbon dioxide; and the predominance of livestock farming.

6.4 Environmental policy goals

Respondents who identified a particular policy goal as important (scoring 3 or higher) were asked to judge policy measures in support of it. The goals and associated measures are listed in Table 28. In the environmental domain, all 4 policy goals were identified by at least 1 respondent as desirable for the study area.

Respondents were asked to judge whether the policy measures available would be capable of achieving the desired policy outcomes in the study area. If measures were considered likely to have little impact, then respondents were asked to suggest reasons for poor performance, and to propose improvements. For example, measures might be irrelevant for the case study

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area, or the design of the policy might be inappropriate with low expected take-up. Table 28 displays the possible effectiveness of the measures, expressed as a capability score. There are small numbers of respondents for some policy goals due to their low perceived importance (Table 8.2) and the interview consequently seeking no further information.

Table 28 | Perceived capability of environmental measures to deliver policy goals in the UK Case study area Policy goal and related measures Capability21 Capability Mean score, Mean score, local informant policy official outcome = Safeguard and improve (n=1) (n=3) biodiversity 1. Grants for woodland management to im- 2 2.5 prove biodiversity 2. Substantial incentives to farmers/foresters for very high standards of en- 3 4.5 vironmental management, in targeted areas or habitats 3. Smaller incentives aimed at achieving modest impacts on biodiversity. Requires a smaller environmental management effort 4 4 than under Measure 2. Available in all areas, not just ‘special’ areas outcome = Safeguard and improve (n=3) (n=3) landscape Incentives to farmers to protect/restore 4.7 4.7 characteristic features Incentives to maintain farm trees/woodland 3 2.7 in good condition Incentives to farmers to use farming meth- 4.7 4.7 ods which maintain a diverse landscape outcome = Reducing the causes and (n=1) (n=1) impacts of climate change Missing =1 Support for renewable energy generation (solar, wind, anaerobic digestion; growing 2 2 biomass, woodfuel etc)

Assistance to firms in all sectors to encour- 5 4 age environmentally-friendly production

21 1=expects the measure to make no difference 2=expects a small difference 3=expects a moderate difference over the whole municipality OR a large difference over parts of the municipality 4=expects quite a lot of difference 5=expects a lot of difference

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e.g. adopting renewable energy, cleaner technology; establish environmental management systems Encourage businesses to recycle and recover 4 2 energy from waste. outcome = Water and soil conserva- (n=1) (n=1) tion Missing =1 Missing=2 Incentives to farmers for measures to reduce 1 5 soil erosion & run-off Capital grants to modernise livestock enter- 3 5 prises Buffer strips for on-farm watercourses (pro- 5 5 tection from spraying, livestock) Training for water management 1 5

Some of the available measures were viewed by respondents as being unlikely to make any difference to the achievement of the policy goals. The following sections report why the measures were considered deficient and also, where possible, to propose improvements and/or new measures

6.4.1 Low impact measures in the environmental domain

Three measures were identified as likely to have little impact on the policy goals. There is a relatively small area of woodland in the municipality, and consequently the availability of grants for woodland management, (for biodiversity improvement or landscape improvement), was considered by most respondents to be an inappropriate measure. It was commented that individual trees and small copses are intrinsic components of the farmed landscape.

Policy support for renewable energy generation was considered likely to be ineffective. As already explained, there is a lack of a source of woodfuel. Pro- jects for wind turbines, solar panels and anaerobic digesters would be likely to fail due to strict planning control. Nevertheless considerable interest was expressed in whether an anaerobic digester proposed at nearby Youlgrave would receive planning permission.

It was commented that the uptake of low intensity farm management might be limited by the need to maintain a reasonable level of income. Low productivity farming, as demanded under higher level agri-environment contracts, is very hard to sustain as it produces a poor return on labour and its time demands are similar but stocking rates are lower. An alternative approach might be to allow intensification on part of the farm.

The farming expert and informed local resident produced diverging scores for „Water and soil conservation‟.

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6.5 Social policy goals

Table 6.1 shows that, in the social domain, 2 policy outcomes have been identified by respondents as of importance for the study area. Table 29 displays respondents‟ opinions as to the possible effectiveness of the measures which are available in support of these policy goals.

Table 29 | Perceived capacity of social measures to deliver policy goals in the UK Case study area Policy goal and related measures Capability Capability Mean score, Mean score, local infor- policy officials mants outcome = Enhance opportunity in N=3 N=2 rural areas Help to get economically inactive and unemployed people into work, thereby 2 2 reducing social exclusion. Improve skills of employed people in rural areas (especially low paid) thereby 3 4.5 increasing earning power and adaptability. Help to overcome barriers to employ- 4 3 ment faced by rural residents Business support for start-ups and existing enterprises to expand the number 5 4.3 and range of jobs. outcome = Enhance quality of life N=3 N=2 in rural areas. Protect cultural assets by encouraging farmers to protect archaeological fea- 4.3 2.8 tures on their land Positive management of historic build- 3.7 3.5 ings Support for community businesses and social enterprises to provide key rural 4.7 3.5 services

6.5.1 Comments on measures in the social domain

One measure was judged unlikely to contribute to achieving policy goals. The impact of a measure to help disadvantaged people currently marginal to the labour market into work was considered likely to be small since there are so few such people resident in the area. It was not a matter of unemployability but of lack of jobs, and hence the business support measure would have a substantial impact.

Whereas traditionally men have had permanent jobs, earning reasonable pay rates at the cement works, no comparable work for women exists. It was

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commented that many tourism jobs are seasonal and low paid. Thus local informants were unconvinced that improving qualification levels would increase earnings unless appropriate jobs exist. The main barrier to work for local people was the lack of transport. Although people might commute by rail for better paid jobs, it might be infeasible for lower paid work. Bus connections are limited, and there appears to be a particular problem for young people who have no access to a car.

Interviewees‟ perceptions of quality of life were related to having reasonable prosperity and access to housing and services, and a sense of community. These are only indirectly tackled (if at all) by the policy measures.

It was commented that enhancing cultural assets not only improves the living environment and contributes to tourism spending, but may also be valuable as social „glue‟. It was acknowledged that access to services make an important contribution to quality of life, and that a small number of community initiatives exist, such as a volunteer transport service for hospital appoint- ments. However, further projects would depend on capturing the interest of residents willing to be involved. Several commented that schemes in the past had had project workers assistance.

6.6 Economic policy goals

Table 27 shows that, in the economic domain, all 3 of the available policy outcomes have been identified by respondents as of importance for the study area. Respondents experienced difficulty in answering Parts 1 and 2 of this section because of insufficient technical knowledge, especially concerning farm businesses. Therefore 2 officials only commented on farming.

Table 30 displays the possible effectiveness of the measures which are available in support of these policy goals. The scores reflect both the relevance to the area‟s „problems‟ and also the likelihood that it is correctly designed (appropriate) and would therefore be expected to have an impact.

Table 30 | Perceived capacity of economic measures to deliver policy goals in the UK Case study area Policy goal and related measures Capability Capability Mean score, Mean score, local infor- policy officials mants outcome = Improve economy by improving the competitiveness of N=0 N=2 farming, forestry and horticultural businesses Farm diversification into non-agricultural 2 activities or novel crops Adding value to agricultural or forestry products. Developing new products, 2 processes, markets

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Support groups of businesses to develop 2.3 new techniques, processes or products Training, support for technical and busi- 2.3 ness skills Modernising livestock enterprises (e.g 3 animal welfare, waste management) Improve economic value of forests 1.5 Support for Renewable energy 2 outcome = Improve economy by improving the competitiveness of N=2 N=4 businesses in other sectors Improve the skills of the workforce 4.5 2.8 Help firms to develop new processes, products and markets (e.g. to produce 4.5 3.5 higher value goods) Improve firms‟ access to knowledge, expertise and facilities needed for innova- 4 3 tion. Improve resource efficiency of firms 5 3 Improve skills of managers and owners in 5 4 small businesses Business support for firms in priority sec- 5 3.3 tors outcome = Increase diversity of ru- N=4 N=3 ral economy Support for farm diversification 4 3.3 Support to create and grow micro- enterprises especially those developing 4.8 4.2 local products or services Help businesses to enter markets to re- 3 2.5 cover energy from waste, or recycle it. Encouragement of tourism activities 1.5 3.3

6.6.1 Improve economy by improving the competitiveness of businesses in the land-based sector

Both respondents believed that there was relatively little further scope for diversification. Upland farms, especially in the Dark Peak area, have con- tended with poor incomes for a long time, so there is already a long history of diversification suggesting few market opportunities remain. Furthermore after many years of low incomes there is a lack of capital and labour in farm businesses. For similar reasons the capacity of farms to develop new products is also limited.

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Considerable scope would be offered by capital grants to modernise farms and improve labour productivity. However the current schemes were inap- propriately designed: grants are not available for mainstream agricultural activities (which are poorly defined), and the minimum spend is too high to enable beef and sheep farms to benefit.

Collaboration between farmers is generally considered as weak. The application process for the current measures (under the Rural Development Pro- gramme for England) is very complicated for a single farm, and will be worse for a collective application. The current LEADER round has failed to bring forth such projects.

6.6.2 Improve economy by improving the competitiveness of businesses in other sectors

The policy official‟ relatively poor rating for training reflects the difficulty under present policies of delivering such support in rural areas. The agenda is seen as focused more on the needs of urban areas. Business support is target driven, and it is easier to reach targets in urban areas where there are larger firms and a greater density of firms. Likewise there is an urban focus to innovation: for example supporting food exporting firms but not local food supply chains.

There was broad agreement among policy officials that the application process for the Rural Development Programme for England (CAP Pillar 2), including LEADER approach and farm schemes, was very difficult, time- consuming, and uncertain, and deterred potential applicants.

6.6.3 Increase the diversity of the rural economy

The greatest divergence between the 2 groups was in relation to tourism. Lo- cal residents perceived that there was already saturation in the market and too many buildings (shops and homes) were given over to tourism. Policy officials thought there was scope for expansion in certain areas, notably to increase the number of visitors staying overnight, improving quality, and the development of niche products (e.g. accommodation linked to a particular activity).

There was felt to be a lack of critical mass to enable energy recovery businesses to thrive.

6.7 Conclusions for UK study area

Clearly from the small sample size involved, it is not possible to claim that the information obtained from the round of interviews is conclusive. Neverthe- less, the interviewees were well informed and provided useful insights.

Information obtained from interviews suggests many of the policy goals selected from the RDPE, EU Structural Fund, and EU Social Fund documents are relevant to the Bradwell and Hope Valley study area. However, the appli-

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cability of some of the related policy measures is questionable, and the design for the delivery of some of them is imperfect.

A set of policy measures has been constructed which a) contribute to the delivery of the desired policy outcomes; and b) are thought to be effective. This set, presented in Table 31Table 32Table 33, consists of existing measures, „improved‟ measures, and new policy measures suggested by interviewees.

Table 31 | Policy measures able to deliver environmental policy goals, UK Case study area Policy goal and related measures Derivation of measure outcome = Safeguard and improve biodiversity 1. Substantial incentives to farmers/foresters for very high Improved standards of environmental management, in targeted areas or measure habitats. Allow small intensified areas on otherwise exten- sively managed farms 2. Smaller incentives aimed at achieving modest impacts on Current biodiversity. Requires a smaller environmental management measure effort than under Measure 2. Available in all areas, not just ‘special’ areas outcome = Safeguard and improve landscape Incentives to farmers to protect/restore characteristic features Current measure Incentives to farmers to use farming methods which maintain Current a diverse landscape measure outcome = Reducing the causes and impacts of climate change Assistance to firms in all sectors to encourage environmen- Current tally-friendly production measure Encourage businesses to recycle and recover energy from Current waste. measure outcome = Water and soil conservation Incentives to farmers for measures to reduce soil erosion & Current run-off measure Capital grants to modernise livestock enterprises Current measure Buffer strips for on-farm watercourses (protection from Current spraying, livestock) measure Training for water management Current measure

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Table 32 | Policy measures able to deliver social policy goals, UK Case study area Policy goal and related measures Derivation of measure outcome = Enhance opportunity in rural areas Improve skills of employed people in rural areas (especially Current measure low paid) thereby increasing earning power and adaptability. Help to overcome barriers to employment faced by rural Current measure residents Business support for start-ups and existing enterprises to Current measure expand the number and range of jobs. outcome = Enhance quality of life in rural areas. Protect cultural assets by encouraging farmers to protect ar- Current measure chaeological features on their land Positive management of historic buildings Current measure Support for community businesses and social enterprises to Current measure provide key rural services

Table 33 | Policy measures able to deliver economic policy goals, UK Case study area Policy goal and related measures Derivation of measure outcome = Improve economy by improving the competitiveness of farming, forestry and horticultural businesses Modernising livestock enterprises: specification changed to better Improved reflect the needs of upland farms measure outcome = Improve economy by improving the competitiveness of businesses in other sectors Improve the skills of the workforce. Improved delivery for rural Improved areas measure Help firms to develop new processes, products and markets. Im- Improved prove assistance for micro and small businesses measure Improve firms‟ access to knowledge, expertise and facilities Improved needed for innovation. Improve assistance for micro and small measure businesses. Improve resource efficiency of firms Current measure Improve skills of managers and owners in small businesses Current measure Business support for firms in priority sectors. Improve assistance Improved for micro and small businesses. measure outcome = Increase diversity of rural economy Support for farm diversification. Reduction of minimum grant size Improved measure Support to create and grow micro-enterprises especially those de- Improved veloping local products or services. Increase budget and simplify measure application procedure

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6.8 Annexes for chapter 6

6.8.1 Annex1: Main policy objectives and supporting measures in the UK East Midlands region

Broad objec- Measures Policy tive En- Grants to bring woodland (esp Ancient) into Woodland hance/protect good management biodiversity Woodland creation grants Woodland Reconnection of fragments of habitats Woodland Protect ancient woodland features, and trees Woodland Incentives to farmers for: low intensity grassland management Axis 2 arable - refuge areas, beetle banks Axis 2 habitat creation, restoration; protect trees, Axis 2 hedges Reverse decline in farmland birds (arable and Axis 2 wet grassland species) Secure recovery of Nationally Important species Axis 2 (bees, arable plant assemblages) Location-specific priorities under HLS Axis 2 Traditional methods - hay-making, winter stub- Axis 2 ble, cattle grazing on moorland Maintain moorland habitats Axis 2

Landscape - Grants to bring woodland (or on-farm trees) into Woodland improve or good management protect New planting Woodland

Incentives to farmers for: protecting/restoring landscape features (hedges, Axis 2 walls, farm buildings low intensity grassland management Axis 2 Maintain moorland habitats Axis 2

Sustainable Incentives to reduce soil erosion and run-off - Axis 2 natural re- overwinter cover, grassy areas sources Buffer strips for watercourses Axis 2 Water resource management Axis 1 Climate change Promote policies for creating woodland and Woodland mitigation other habitats in flood plains, in catchment management plans A primary objective – no measures specified Axis 2 Energy crops scheme Axis 2

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Renewable energy Axis 1 Help for businesses to enter markets incl waste, ERDF, PA2 renewable energy, resource efficiency Sustainable Woodland creation grants (increase output) Woodland businesses & enterprise Support for collaborative activity, wood produc- Woodland ers, contractors

Making agricul- Training in woodland management/business Woodland ture/forestry skills more competitive Improve returns to growers through supply chain Woodland dev, market research, new technologies, processes Support for market development for woodfuel Woodland Support for firms engaged in high value added Woodland craft production Adding value to agric, hort and forestry products Axis 1 Promoting collaboration to gain efficiency, dev of Axis 1 new products and processes Diversify rural economy Axis 1 Renewable energy Axis 1 Improving economic value of woodland Axis 1 Infrastructure related to dev and adaptation of Axis 1 agric and forestry - Water resources Vocational training Axis 1 Training in support of diversification, renewable Axis 1 energy, adding value, improving forests, water management Modernise holdings Axis 1 Diversification out of agric Axis 3/LEADER Support to dev/create micro-enterprises Axis (LEADER only) 3/LEADER

Improving Skills development for land-based businesses Axis 1 skills Upskilling of employed people ESF,P2 Upskilling of managers and business owners ESF,P2

Economic de- Improve physical environment in degraded areas Woodland, velopment e.g. woodland creation ERDF Increase number of people who are employed ESF, P1 (reduce unempl, reduce inactivity) Improve skills and adaptability of the workforce. ESF,P2 Reduce number without basic skills ESF,P2 Increase number with GCSE/A level or equiva- ESF,P2 lent Help to SMEs in priority sectors ESF,P2 Help to firms likely to attract inward investment ESF,P2 More apprenticeships, including adults ESF,P2

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Develop staff and managers in micro and small ESF,P2 firms Increase com- Increase innovation in technology, processes, ERDF, PA1 petitiveness developing new products Increase pro- Improve resource efficiency by adopt new tech- ERDF, PA1 ductivity nology, processes, products etc Development and adoption of renewable energy ERDF, PA1 technology Enterprise support in disadvantaged communi- ERDF, PA2 ties Improve capacity of local businesses (disad ar- ERDF, PA2 eas) through coaching etc

Priority sectors Transport equipment, Food & drink, Construc- ERDF, ESF tion, Healthcare, Logistics, Engineering manu- facture, Tourism, leisure and hospitality, Health and social care, Clothing and textiles, Creative industries

Housing Improve physical environment in degraded areas Woodland e.g. woodland creation

Community Improve physical environment in degraded areas Woodland development e.g. woodland creation Improved access to woodland for recreation, Woodland close to home Improve Quality of Life LEADER Improve physical environment and attractive- ERDF, PA2 ness of disadvantaged areas Assistance for social enterprises LEADER

Social cohe- Help unemployed and economically inactive into ESF, P1 sion/inclusivity work Tackle barriers to employment faced by disad- ESF, P1 vantaged people Tackle barriers to employment faced by remote ESF, P1 rural areas Reduce number of NEETs ESF, P1 Improve employability and skills of unemployed ESF, P1 and economically inactive. Community projects to help socially-excluded ESF, P1 people Increase size and diversity of enterprise base in ERDF, PA2 disadvantaged areas Improve access to employment in disadvantaged ERDF, PA2 areas Start-up help in disadvantaged areas ERDF, PA2

Health im- Improved woodland access provision Woodland provements

Tourism devel- Improve marketing of woodland attractions and Woodland opment 'natural env' tourism offer Assistance Axis 3/LEADER

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Cul- Reduce cultivation at archaeological sites Axis 2 tural/historic assets Positive management of historic buildings Axis 2 Secure old farm buildings Axis 2 Manage scrub, grassland on archaeological fea- Axis 2 tures Conservation and upgrading of rural heritage Axis 3/LEADER

Access to coun- Provide oppportunities Axis 2 tryside

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6.8.2 Annex 2: Policy documents, UK case study area

EMDA (undated) East Midlands 2007-13 ERDF Competitiveness Operational Programme. On-line at: http://www.eastmidlandserdf.org.uk/index.php?option=com_docman&task =cat_view&gid=57&Itemid=57

EMDA (2008a) East Midlands 2007-13 ERDF Investment Framework V5. On-line at: http://www.eastmidlandserdf.org.uk/index.php?option=com_docman&task =cat_view&gid=45&Itemid=57

EMDA (2008b) RDPE, East Midlands Regional Implementation Plan 2007- 2013. On-line at: http://www.gos.gov.uk/goem/env-rural/reg- rural/ruralprog0713/

EMDA (2008c) Rural Development Programme for England (RDPE) 2007- 13. LEADER approach in the East Midlands Region Round 2. Nottingham, East Midlands Development Agency.

ESP, undated. European Social Fund 2007-2013 A Framework for the East Midlands January 2008 - March 2011. Employment Skills and Productivity Partnership

F.C (2005) space4trees. The Regional Forestry Framework for the East Mid- lands. Forestry Commission. On-line at: http://www.forestry.gov.uk/pdf/space4trees_stage3_doc.pdf/$FILE/space4 trees_stage3_doc.pdf

F.C (2007) English Woodland Grant Scheme Prospectus 2007. Forestry Commission. On-line at: http://www.forestry.gov.uk/pdf/prospectus- england-2007.pdf/$FILE/prospectus-england-2007.pdf

F.C (2008) England's Trees, Woods and Forests - Delivery Plan 2008-2012. Forestry Commission. On-line at: http://www.forestry.gov.uk/etwf

Natural England (2008) East Midlands: Higher Level Stewardship Theme Statement. On-line at: http://www.naturalengland.org.uk/images/hlstargeting/East_Midlands.pdf

Natural England (2009) Environmental Stewardship Update. On-line at: http://www.naturalengland.org.uk/ourwork/farming/funding/es/default.as px

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7 FRENCH PILOT CASE STUDY AREA 7.1 Description of the French case study area 7.1.1 Clusters of municipalities

The clustering process (see M1.4) demonstrated that municipalities fall down Jean-Paul Bousset, Olivier in two main groups (A and B). Group A gathers municipalities sparcely frag- Aznar, Myriam Gomez, Eric ile (high density population, positive natural balance and Change in popula- Perret, Nadine Turpin tion), with a potential relationship (low Distance Between pole to pole and access time). The group is constituted of clusters 4.1, 4.2, 1.1, 1.2 and 3 in the analysis. Group B municipalities belong to clusters 2.2, 2.1, and 2.3: they have more complex dynamics, ranging from ageing and highly forested to ageing but creating new dynamics towards valorisation of natural endowments.

Figure 4: cluster analysis of the municipalities in Auvergne

The clusters are the following:

- 2.2 ageing and highly forested - 2.1 intermediate (ageing, forested and agricultural – old fashioned production systems) - 2.3 aged, but creating new dynamics (valorisation of natural endowments like natura2000 by tourism) - 4.1 high agricultural potential but can evolve towards periurbanisation - 4.2 agricultural potential, attractive but a bit further than 4.1 - 3 medium land potential, but accessible, valorisation of natural en- dowment by tourism - 1.1 dynamic because of accessibility (periurbanisation) note: on ne peut pas dire "stagnating", le taux de croissance de la populatione st le même que le cluster 3 - 1.2 urban

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7.1.2 Governance of the EU funds

In France, the Pays are territories freely chosen and proposed by local actors based on a "geographic, economic, cultural or social focus, " and expressing a community of interests, projects in the context of sustainable development. They are not new administrative levels, but they are places of action that brings together municipalities, associations of municipalities, socio- professional organizations, businesses, associations around a development project.

This new mode of territorial organization aims to promote sustainable development policies in areas, more closely associating cities and rural areas, and facilitate, by contract, the alignment of public policies and their adaptation to local contexts.

Missions: a project in a Pays must establish guidelines for the medium and long term based on the identification of public policies, and implement actions to support individuals or groups. It must therefore prioritize public intervention in the territory and draw a stable frame of reference for implementing effective and consistent policies that contribute to management and development planning.

Recognition: The recognition of a Pays is governed by the terms of Act No. 2003-590 of 2 July 2003 Planning and habitat. Municipalities and associations of municipalities approve the charter of the Pays' development they provide to (x) Prefect (s) Region (s) concerned which, in view of the project and the views of councils and regional councils concerned, shall publish the perimeter by decree.

7.1.3 Selected groups of muncipalities for the interviews

Since Auvergne regional fund governance is such that the Pays is the decision unit, we initially selected two broad areas with different combinations of municipalities:

- From Group A, we selected the Pays Jeune Loire et ses rivières, well connected to an employment pole (St Etienne), with both periurban and touristic development issues, and from group B, the Pays Saint Flour Haute Auvergne, with ageing and population decrease issues. - The second Pays is located in the Regional Natural Park of the Vol- cans d'Auvergne. The Regional Park promotes sustainable development strategies for its municipalities, but brings very little money: it acts more as a governance and facilitation structure than as a subsidy provider.

In each selected area, we first met the stakeholders involved at the Pays level, interviewed them, and ask them to help us identify relevant municipalities. Then, we choose a set of municipalities for surveys, with contrasted trajecto- ries for the Pays Jeune Loire et ses rivières, and a set of connected munici- palites around a town center for the Pays Saint flour Haute Auvergne.

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Figure 5: selected groups of municipalities for interviews in Auvergne

7.2 The French questionnaires 7.2.1 Development of the questionnaires

First, policy documents for the main EU funding streams have been re- viewed, along with local development documents (Pays charters, regional funding documents). For each funding stream, a simplified list of policy objectives and associated measures was compiled.

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The questionnaires have been adapted to each area. They first present the objectives of the PRIMA project. Then they focus on the past stories for the areas, the main point of interest for development issues, the main funding streams, and then concentrated on development objectives and main measures mobilised.

Several interviewees did not mobilise EU related measures directly, thus we broadened the list of measures.

7.2.2 Interviews

A series of interview was conducted in the Auvergne case study in January 2010, then in May 2010, and completed during summer 2010. Regional elec- tions occurred in between, forcing us to interrupt the survey because the local stakeholders were too busy to answer us. All questionnaires were administered by face to face, except for two telephone interviews.

Local informant interviewees were selected directly from the list of local mayors in the area, and by snowballing from contacts from the two "Pays" managers.

Tab. 34| Interviewees in the French case study area interviewee description localisation number of type interviews policy offi- regional payment region 1 cial agency policy offi- Regional Direction of region 1 cial Agriculture Pays Jeune Loire local official Pays level 2 et ses rivières directors of communau- Pays Jeune Loire local official 5 tés de communes et ses rivières mayor or municipality Pays Jeune Loire local official 6 elected people et ses rivières mayor or municipality Pays Sant Flour local official 6 elected people Haute Auvergne local resi- farmer/business advi- Pays Jeune Loire 4 dent sor et ses rivières

These stakeholders have been mapped according to the method described in D2.1, on a two axis graph depicting their degree of interest vs. their degree of influence (Figure ). This map highlights four main groups of stakeholders:

- stakeholders having low degrees of interest and influence on the policies; they are mainly located in small municipalities in the Pays de Saint Flour. These low degrees reflect the fact that they represent too small groups to be able to apply to structural funds, that they have difficulties in grouping together for that purpose, and that their own development objective differ from those highlighted by the EU.

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- stakeholders having a medium degree of interest are mainly located in medium size municipalities or groups of municipalities in the Pays de la Jeune Loire. They are aware of the existence of the funding schemes, and can mobilise some, but most often the local development objectives are too far away from the funding schemes. - the group of stakeholders having a high interest for EU funding schemes can be split in two, those who are in charge of implementing them (who also have an influence on the design of local schemes), and those who represent large groups such as communau- tés de communes, but who may have difficulties to mobilise the EU funding for their communities.

It is worth noting that 3 interviewees, though declaring being not or little interested by EU schemes, do apply to them and use the funds for their development purposes.

Figure 6: Degree of interest versus degree of influence of surveyed stakeholders in Auvergne

Influence

Interest

7.3 Results of the French interviews: introductory questions 7.3.1 Perceived changes in the case study area

The two areas are very different. The municipalities in the Pays de la Jeune Loire are located in a predominantly urban area (urban, periurban and mul- tipolarised municipalities), while those of the Pays de Saint Flour are in a predominantly rural area.

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7.3.1.1 Jeune Loire

Despite the „predominantly urban‟ classification, during the interviews performed in the Pays de la Jeune Loire, all the mayors considered their municipalities as well located in rural areas. They stress the fact of the importance to preserve the rural characteristics, and the identity of the territories (relative to the city). Belonging to a rural area is also an argument, a criterion of attractiveness for population seeking to live near a big city. This is the main strength of these municipalities, which are mainly residential.

Nevertheless, these municipalities do not show the desire to attract more people and grow too quickly. This increase should be gradual and controlled to preserve the living environment in rural areas. This preservation of the openess is necessary for Saint Férréol d'Auroure, in particular since it reflects the willingness to accept a certain category of people such as managers or avoid as possible the arrival of people less "wealthy".

Moreover, the population increased only about 5% since 1999 in the towns closest to St-Etienne: Saint Férréol d'Auroure and St-Just-Malmont. Before the 80s, the growth was stronger. This reflects the strong pressure on land with prices around 100 € / m2 or more. The Séauve sur Semène has seen its population rise quite significantly since 1999 (13%). The town is a little further away from St-Etienne but the proximity to the N88 facilitates commuting. For this municipality, the extension is still limited because of its location in the valley bottom.

For these municipalities, the return of certain values such as rurality was an important driver that reversed the trend: incoming people look for the lure of country living while enjoying the proximity of the city.

Since the 90s, many residential areas have grown, thus the municipalities are paying attention to infrastructure. Indeed, a growing population creates a need for additional equipment (such as a multipurpose room), that it is sometimes difficult to handle. These municipalities also have some difficulties to raise funds which are essential to achieving their goals. They report it is either difficult to find the right person from the communauté de communes or in the Conseil général, or the granting of EU structural funds ERDF in this case is denied, because the project does not fit the funding scheme objectives. The interviewees reflected some confusion because there is a real willingness of municipalities to adapt the infrastructure or the housing needs of the population, but some constraints (including administrative) are a hindrance to development. For habitation structure for example, the municipalities are gravitating towards individual housing while the SCOT includes group housing.

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7.3.1.2 Saint Flour

The living area of Condat (Pays de Saint Flour) is located in a predominantly rural area. It consists of 6 municipalities that revolve around a town-centre, the city Condat.

Condat, its town-centre having about 1,000 inhabitants, is surrounded by small rural communities populated by some fifty people to about 550 inhabitants. These municipalities are characterized by an aging and more or less gradual decrease of the population. There are variations depending on the municipalities. While Montboudif lost just over 10% of inhabitants since 1990, other municipalities such as Chanterelle and Condat have decreased by 20-25%. Lugarde lost 33% of its population and Marcenat still more: over 50% mainly during the period 1990-1999. St-Bonnet-de-Condat is the municipality whose population declined most sharply, almost 76% less during most of the period 1990-1999. Montgreleix had two development periods, an increase of 17.5% from 1990 to 1999 and a decrease of 19.5% of its population until 2006.

Besides the town-centre, economic activity in other municipalities revolves around agriculture, with quite a number of farmers therefore, given the general decline. This is also a concern to municipalities because if they decline, the economic fabric will weaken and what will be their future?

The lack of industry appears to be quite evident in these small rural communities, except for Montgreleix which hosts a business building and public works employing a dozen employees, and belonging to the mayor. Little re- mains of merchants and craftsmen in these communities of less than 500 inhabitants, but it seems difficult to maintain services and shops in towns with population decline. The ability to find a buyer in this sector is essential but it is very difficult. Marcenat is the only municipality "satellite" which takes its name, with just over 500 inhabitants. It has a fairly large number of traders, craftsmen and services available to the population. Marcenat also maintains a nursery and primary school. School consolidation elsewhere seems to work well and promotes the social adhesion of municipalities and population.

Condat being a town-centre is differentiated from other municipalities. The number of farmers is proportionally lower than in neighbouring municipalities. The economic tissue is composed of two industrial enterprises (about 70 jobs) and many artisans and shopkeepers (some fifty jobs). Services to the population are also well represented. Condat possesses a certain autonomy.

7.3.2 Underlying causes of any changes 7.3.2.1 Jeune Loire

In the Pays de la Jeune Loire, several interviewees use the term "dormitory town" because, even if the town does not lack activities, the majority of the population will work outside, in Firminy St. Etienne or more broadly in the Valley Ondaine. Thus, the links are very close to the Loire department because of geographical proximity as well as road infrastructure. The creation

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of the N88 (2x2) in the 80's has facilitated trade and commuting causing a consequent demand for land.

While these appear to be predominantly residential, the economy is fairly developed in various forms. Trade, craft or personal services are well represented, meeting the needs of the population. Indeed, the craftsmen have a fairly large radius for their travels, extending well beyond the town. Indus- trial employment is mainly the Séauve sur Semène and St-Just-Malmont. Moreover, Saint Férréol d'Auroure deplores the lack of industry on its territory, a more limited municipal budget, and the absence of business tax. However, the ongoing construction of an Industrial Zone through the Com- munauté de communes is expected to boost the town, shops and services.

On the Séauve municipality, there are about 150 jobs in industry, plus merchants and craftsmen, while St-Just-Malmont totals more than 1,000 jobs in all sectors of activity together with about 800 for industrial use (small fab- rics). Agricultural employment is present to a lesser extent, and is always quoted after the other sectors.

The main advantages of these municipalities in a suburban area - their landscape asset, quality of life, proximity to St-Etienne and its employment pool - appear to be crucial in their territorial development.

The reduction of subsidies and the difficulty of finding and obtaining financing are the major weak points. The most common industry are also worried by the decline in industrial employment.

7.3.2.2 Saint Flour

For local interviewees, the fate of Condat requires maintaining a certain level of population, around 1000. Hence they raised the need to consider bringing ina new population - why not the pensioners who live in suburban areas and are looking for a new life style? This is an idea on which the mayor is working. The neighbouring mayors don't always have the same opinion, in fact, for some, it is sometimes difficult for an outsider to adapt and acclimatize. The main quoted issues are the harsh climate and the need for a "special disposi- tion" to be able to live in this mountainous area. The main concern is to "hook" people and make them live here. Moreover, maintaining existing services and businesses often requires a certain willingness that newcomers do not always have.

Given the declining population, there are very few new houses on Marcenat. A holding of 10 houses is still being finalized. Development projects are difficult to implement, they are carried by the communauté de communes as the building of a health house Condat demonstrates. The communauté de communes of Cézallier holds the competence of health, and the town of Condat has acquired the property. The imminent opening of a business park at Con- dat should enable the installation of industrial, commercial and crafts and participate in economic growth. Other projects with the communauté de commune exist, for instance in Montgreleix with the restoration of the municipal inn and the creation of holiday cottages.

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The few remaining jobs in and around Condat provide an incentive for young people to leave the area. The main concern is the declining number of farms and the question is how to preserve farming. It is still the main feature of these rural communities and therefore it will be difficult to maintain services and shops where rural depopulation is increasing. For some interviewees, the reduction of subsidies to municipalities is also a real threat, and small rural communities may be doomed to be attached to the town centre. Nevertheless, they are tied to their identity.

These weaknesses should not mask the benefits of this territory, the environment for living rated "outstanding", leading to a significant number of tourists. The cultural character is quite marked for a municipality of this size, you can visit museums, whether in Condat Montboudif which is the home- town of President Georges Pompidou, or Marcenat. For local people, Condat is to be considered as the Center of Auvergne and a town of museums. All interviewed municipalities have holiday cottages, being on family, private or communal status. Tourism is also an additional resource for farming with farm shops for selling cheese. It is a human scale and friendly tourism, atten- dance is not as important as the nearest ski station, the Super-Besse and its surrounding. The main features of the area are quietness and preservation of nature which both attract tourists.

7.4 Importance of policy outcomes 7.4.1 Jeune Loire

At the territorial level, the Pays de la Jeune Loire has four objectives:

- a balanced development relying on a multi-frame city network, because the area is liable to host many incomings in a near future and the interviewees are vigilant towards a balanced development - preserve a dynamic economy - promote an environmentally friendly development - promote qualitative development and consider social issues.

The objectives of the territory, in the Pays de la Jeune Loire, make sense to the surveyed stakeholders. These objectives are more or less integrated into the Municipal Development Projects. However, because of the multilevel governance for development, the individual objectives set for individual municipalities may differ widely.

The Séauve sur Semène invests primarily around the quality of development that respects the landscape and environment, to preserve nature, and around the development of suitable habitat and habitat diversity. Retournac's objective are quite similar: the municipality wants to improve the attractiveness for young households.

St-Just-Malmont is more oriented towards the economic development strategy. Chambon sur Lignon's objective are close: the municipality wants to control the development of economic activities, especially on the land-base aspect.

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St. Férréol Auroure is trying to get involved in both the qualitative development and economic dynamism, including the maintenance of agricultural fabric, even very small ones.

Last, Saint Bonnet le Froid orientates its objectives mainly towards tourism, strongly arguing that the economic activity triggers attractiveness.

7.4.2 Saint Flour

The surveyed municipalities have different opinions about their ability to design development objectives. Some do consider they don't have the means to influence development issues, nor EU policies; others argue that at least providing services to their inhabitants falls into their duty.

One point that is common to almost all elected officials is encountered in the adaptation of agricultural practices to the reality of space (Natura 2000 ...). Indeed, they do not consider this target as a priority, and would prefer not to impose too much constraint. The conservation of biodiversity should be measured and not to the detriment of man; it is necessary to keep individuals and business in first place.

7.4.3 Policy outcomes

As we surveyed very different stakeholders, we split them into three sets; one composed of policy officials at the regional level (the set does not include people who are directly involved in the implementation of EU policies such as FEADER); the others formed of local informants on each of the two surveyed area. Each set contains 6 people.

Balancing the land use management between the different sub-areas in a territory is a very important objective for local informants in both places, but less important for regional people.

The objective which interviewees have for economic development strongly depends on the assets in the area. Saint flour area considers that increasing the population is by far the more important objective, and thus developing services and economic activities is much more important than enhancing tourism. The policy official whose opinions we report here are not directly involved in increasing the competitiveness of agriculture, so this objective is not quoted. (The policy official directly involved in this area highlights this objective only.)

Environment goals are much more varied: some objectives are quoted by a relatively small number of stakeholders, but with very high scores. It is more the combination of environmental objectives that enables a picture of a given area to be drawn: the Pays de la Jeune Loire, which has a relatively high population density and many activities, focuses on risk exposure, noise, and water protection. These issues are not mentioned in the Pays de Saint Flour,

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where the focus is more on preservation of biodiversity, landscapes and biodiversity.

On the social side, the differences between the two areas are quite small: the densely populated area focuses on balancing the development between several places, whereas the lower density area is more orientated towards the provision of services to its population. It is really interesting to see that despite their differences, cultural and heritage issues are rated at the same level in the two areas.

Tab. 35| Rating of the importance of the policy goals in the Au- vergne case study local informants local informants Policy goal policy officials Jeune Loire Saint Flour Times Times Times score score score cited cited cited Part 1: A balanced land based on a multi-frame Preserve the balances and land 5 4,4 5 2,8 6 2,9 management of the territory Master real estate and housing 2 5,0 6 3,5 6 3,6 growth Adapt equipment supply 4 4,3 6 3,6 0 - Transport issues 2 5,0 5 2,8 4 3,0 Part 2: The conditions of maintaining a dynamic economy Improve economy by increasing the competitiveness of local 5 5,0 6 4,0 5 2,5 businesses Favour tourism development 4 3,1 6 3,1 0 - Improve farming and forest 0 - 6 3,5 6 2,9 competitiveness Part 3: Promoting an environmentally friendly development Forest management in a multi- 0 - 5 2,8 6 3,2 functional way Water protection 3 5,0 6 3,2 0 Biodiversity issues 0 0 6 2,7 Landscapes as a development 2 5,0 6 2,5 5 4,2 tool Other issues (noise, risk exposure, waste management, bio 4 5,0 5 3,3 0 - safety, energy consumption) Part 4: Promote quality and innovative development A balanced urban frame 5 5,0 6 1,8 0 - Heritage and cultural issues 4 5,0 6 2,8 5 2,8 Ensure services to populations 0 - 0 - 6 4,4 and businesses

7.5 Capacity of measures to deliver policy outcomes

At the local level, respondents who scored a given policy goal as important were asked to judge the policy measures that support it. The first goals set is a balanced development of the area. This goal is quoted at the official policy level as very important (they are in charge of it), and less important at the municipality level (they participate in the management, but bear rather than have the capacity to manage it). However, the few who quoted measures to reach this goal find them very efficient.

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Tab. 36| Perceived capability of measures to deliver policy goals in the Auvergne case study – balanced land management

policy goal and related measures number capability of times (mean score cited when cited) Outcome : a balanced land based on a multi-frame Preserve the balances and land management of the territory various subsidies from FEADER axis 3 to improve life quality in 3 5 rural areas Master real estate and housing growth no measures quoted - - Adapt equipment supply various subsidies from FEADER axis 3 to improve quality of life 1 5 in rural areas various subsidies from FEDER axis 4: accessibility and attractiv- 1 5 ity (NTICS mainly) Transport issues subsidies from LEADER to create a co-driving area 2 4 Preserve the balances and land management of the territory no measures quoted - -

7.6 Economic policy goals 7.6.1 Improving farming and forest competitivity

Most of the interviewees find the FEADER measures (axis1, improve competitiveness, axis2, agri-environmental measures) very relevant to improving farming and forestry competitiveness. But they consider that they are han- dled at the state level, so themselves have little to do to implement them.

The rare interviewees who quoted measures that they could implement at the municipality level to increase farming and forestry competitiveness quote FEADER axis1, and find it efficient (For example they got subsidies to improve the dairy industry).

Tab. 37| Perceived capability of economic measures to deliver policy goals in the Auvergne case study

policy goal and related measures number of capability times (mean score cited when cited) Outcome : the conditions of maintaining a dynamic economy Improve economy by increasing the competitivity of local businesses various subsidies from FEADER axis2 to improve attractiveness 3 5 various subsidies from FEADER axis3 to help create new busi- 1 5 nesses Favour tourism development various subsidies from FEADER axis3 to promote tourist activi- 3 5 ties various subsidies axis2 to improve attractiveness of the territory 1 5 Improve farming and forest competitiveness various subsidies from FEADER axis 1 to develop renewable 1 5

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energy various subsidies from FEADER axis 1 to help investment in 2 4 agro-food industry various subsidies from FEADER axis 1 to create now food proc- 1 3 esses agri-environmental measures (natura 2000) 4 1

At the opposite, many interviewees in the Pays de Saint Flour consider that FEADER axis2 measures to develop natura2000 areas are liable to impede the farming competitiveness in the area.

Measures related to tourism development are quoted as efficient at delivering the policy outcome, and many interviewees believe that there should be more measures and more money devoted to this policy goal. The potential subsidies to improve attractiveness and help creat new businesses are less often cited. In most cases, interviewees just do not know they exist, or consider themselves as non relevant to activate the measures. Those who cite them find them efficient in delivering the policy outcome.

7.7 Environmental policy goals

Tab. 38| Perceived capability of environmental measures to deliver policy goals in the Auvergne case study

policy goal and related measures number capability of times (mean score cited when cited) Outcome : Promoting an environmentally friendly development Forest management in a multifunctional way no measure quoted - - Water protection subsides from FEDER axis5 to improve water quality 1 5 Biodiversity issues agri-environnemental measures (FEADER axis2, Natura 2000) 1 5 subsidies from FEADER axis3 to animate natura 2000 areas 2 5 subsidies from FEADER axis 3 to help investments linked to 1 5 natura 2000 areas creation subsidies from FEDER axis 5 to improve knowledge on natural 1 5 resources Landscapes as a development mean various subsidies from FEADER axis3 to improve life quality in 4 4,5 rural areas subsidies from FEADER axis 5 to restore landscape assets 1 5 Other issues (noise, risk exposure, waste management, bio safety, energy consumption) FEDER axis3 : promote energy saving 1 5 FEDER axis 3 : develop renewable energies 2 5 measures form the local plan to minimise noise issues 1 1

Tab 7.5 show that the interviewees who already know which means are available managed to activate them and find them relevant (with the exception of the local plan against noise issues), but most of the interviewees simply have

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no idea on which measures are available and how to get the subsidy. There is an obvious transaction costs issue in small rural municipalities, where mayors simply don't know they could get money to help develop their own projects.

Moreover, in the places where measures are in place, there is a good com- plementation between FEADER and FEDER subsidies.

7.8 Social policy goals

Tab. 7.6| Perceived capability of social measures to deliver policy goals in the Auvergne case study

policy goal and related measures number capability of times (mean score cited when cited) Outcome : Promote quality and innovative development A balanced urban frame no measures quoted Heritage and cultural issues subsidies from FEDER axis1: enforce partnerships 1 5 various subsidies from FEDER axis 2 : enforce attractiveness 1 5 various subsidies form FEADER axis3 : improve local heritage 2 4 Ensure services to populations and businesses various subsidies from FEADER axis3 to develop basic services to 2 5 rural population various subsidies from FEADER axis3 to diversify the economy 2 5 various subsidies from FEDER axis 3 to develop renew- 1 1 able energies various subsidies from FEDER collected through the 1 1 regional cultural organisation

The balance of urban frame is managed through urbanism documents, and interviewees do not consider the policy goal in the field of EU measures.

Similar to environmental issues, the interviewees lack information to collect the subsidies related to social issues. It is interesting to note that funds are not used in their primary purpose, for example the municipality has a (social) development project, tries to gather money and finally obtains some for designing a low energy building, for example.

7.9 Conclusion for the French study area

We interviewed several stakeholders involved in the development of rural municipalities in two varied areas. Clearly the multilevel governance and the multiplication of relevant interlocutors impede local mayors in benefitting from funding for the main development investments they would like to build.

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In some cases stakeholders do not know who, or which service, to contact to apply to a fund, nor the application conditions. In other cases, they design their own project and try to catch some funding from EU schemes to complete the financing of the investment, and more often their current funding partners orientate them towards EU funds. In all cases, networking and social relationships are of the utmost importance for local stakeholders to catch subsidies.

Nevertheless, the survey enabled us to design sets of measures that do contribute to the policy objectives and are implemented or close to be implemented in the various areas:

- preservation of mountain farming, local breeds, improvement of local products, connection between farms and the markets (local, direct selling or distribution). - preservation of biodiversity (Natura2000 measures when implemented in a bottom up way). - promotion of touristic activities. - development of renewable energy (wood especially). - improvement of cultural assets.

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