Global Economic Conditions Charts
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GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS Updated July 2021 Globalization Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Table of Contents Special Section: COVID-19 Average Daily Percent Change in the Google Mobility Index in 4. Public Finances Major Advanced Economies Chart 18. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing in Major Oxford Stringency Index in Major Advanced Economies Advanced Economies COVID-19 Deaths Per Million in Major Advanced Economies Chart 19. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing in Major COVID-19 Tests Per Case in Major Advanced Economies Emerging Economies Chart 20. General Government Gross Debt in Major Advanced 1. Indicators of Real Activity Economies Chart 1. Global GDP Growth Chart 21. General Government Gross Debt in Major Emerging Chart 2. OECD Industrial Production Economies Chart 3. Global Purchasing Managers Index 5. Monetary Policy Chart 4. Unemployment in Major Advanced Economies Chart 22. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major Advanced Chart 5. Unemployment in OECD Economies Economies Chart 6. Volume of World Merchandise Trade Chart 23. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major Emerging Chart 7. Volume of World Merchandise Trade Economies Chart 8. Baltic Dry Index Chart 24. Money Supply Growth in Major Advanced Economies Chart 25. Money Supply Growth in Major Emerging Economies 2. Inflation Indicators Chart 9. Commodity Prices 6. U.S. External Accounts Chart 10. Inflation in OECD Economies (CPI) Chart 26. U.S. Terms of Trade Chart 11. Global Inflation (Headline CPI) Chart 27. U.S. Nominal Trade Balance, Customs Value Chart 12. Inflation in Major Advanced Economies (Headline CPI) Chart 28. U.S. Current Account Balance Chart 13. Inflation in Major Emerging Economies (Headline CPI) Chart 29. Nominal Value of the U.S. Dollar Chart 30. Real Value of the U.S. Dollar 3. Money and Capital Markets Chart 14. Money Market Spreads 7. Current Analysis Chart 15. 10-Year Government Bond Yields in Major Advanced Chart 31. Global Current Account Balances Economies Chart 32. Bond Spreads for Select Euro Area Economies Chart 16. Stock Market Indexes in Major Advanced Economies Chart 17. Stock Market Indexes in Major Emerging Economies Special Section: COVID-19 Globalization Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 7-Day Moving Average of the Google Mobility Index in Percent Major Advanced Economies 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 U.S. -50 Euro Area -60 Japan U.K. -70 Canada -80 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July NOTES: Categories from the Google Mobility Index included in the 7-day simple average are retail & recreation, grocery & pharmacy, transit stations, and workplaces. Data last updated July 21, 2021. Globalization Institute SOURCE: Google Mobility Index, https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Oxford Stringency Index in Major Advanced Economies U.S. Euro Area Japan U.K. Canada 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July SOURCE: Hale, Thomas, Sam Webster, Anna Petherick, Toby Phillips, and Beatriz Kira (2020). Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Blavatnik School of Government. Data use policy: Creative Globalization Institute Commons Attribution CC BY standard. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas COVID-19 Cumulative Deaths Per Million in Major Advanced Economies 2500 U.S. Germany 2000 Japan U.K. 1500 Canada 1000 500 0 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Globalization Institute SOURCES: Haver, John Hopkins. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas COVID-19 Tests Per Case in Major Advanced Economies 600 500 U.S. Euro Area 400 Japan U.K. Canada 300 200 100 0 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July NOTES: Data last updated July 21, 2021. COVID-19 tests per case is equal to the 7-day moving average of the number of tests divided by the number of cases per day. Globalization Institute SOURCE: Our World in Data (OWID). Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Indicators of Real Activity Globalization Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 1. Global GDP Growth Percent, Year/Year 14 10 6 2 -2 World (2021 Q2 = 1.95) -6 Advanced Economies (ex. U.S.) (2021 Q1 = -1.4) -10 Emerging Economies (2021 Q2 = 3.8) U.S. (2021 Q1 = 0.4) -14 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 NOTE: The advanced economies (ex. U.S.) aggregate includes the Euro Area, Japan, the U.K., Canada, Australia, South Korea, Switzerland and Sweden. The emerging economies aggregate includes China, Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey, Argentina, South Africa and Colombia. The world aggregate includes these countries, which make up approximately 80 percent of world GDP computed using purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted GDP weights. Globalization Institute SOURCES: National Statistical Offices, International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 2. OECD Industrial Production Index, 2005 = 100 120 Last Observation: Apr = 113.4 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 NOTE: Countries included in the industrial production index are all members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD (Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom and United States). Globalization Institute SOURCES: OECD; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 3. Global Purchasing Managers Index Index 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 Manufacturing (Jun = 55.5) Services (Jun = 57.5) 25 Composite (Jun = 56.6) 20 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 NOTE: This index measures purchasing managers' perspectives of current business conditions. An index value greater than 50 indicates economic expansion from the previous month, while a value below 50 indicates contraction. Globalization Institute SOURCES: JPMorgan; Bloomberg Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 4. Unemployment in Major Advanced Economies Percent 16 U.S. (Jun = 5.9) Euro Area (May = 7.9) 14 Japan (May = 3.0) U.K. (Apr = 4.8) 12 Canada (Jun = 7.8) 10 8 6 4 2 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 NOTE: The chart plots harmonized unemployment data for the U.K. Globalization Institute SOURCES: National Statistical Offices, EUROSTAT; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 5. Unemployment in OECD Economies Percent 9 Last Observation: May = 6.7 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Globalization Institute SOURCES: OECD; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 6. Volume of World Merchandise Trade Index, 2000 = 100 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 Last Observation: Apr = 195.2 40 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 NOTE: This series includes data from 23 industrialized and 60 emerging market economies and covers approximately 97 percent of total world trade. Trade volume is calculated as the arithmetic average of world export volumes and world import volumes. Globalization Institute SOURCES: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 7. Volume of World Merchandise Trade Imports Exports Index, 2000 = 100 320 280 240 200 160 120 80 World (Apr = 195.0) World (Apr = 195.4) 40 Advanced Economies (Apr = 161.2) Advanced Economies (Apr = 170.2) Emerging Economies (Apr = 345.0) Emerging Economies (Apr = 268.3) 0 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 NOTE: Import and export series include data from 23 industrialized and 60 emerging market economies and cover approximately 97 percent of total world trade. Globalization Institute SOURCES: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 8. Baltic Dry Index Index, 1/4/1985 = 1,000 14,000 Last Observation: July 12 = 3300 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 NOTE: The Baltic Dry Index is a maritime shipping index that measures charter rates for shipping dry bulk commodities such as coal, grain and iron ore. Globalization Institute SOURCES: Baltic Exchange; Bloomberg Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Inflation Indicators Globalization Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 9. Commodity Prices Index, Jan. 2007 = 100 350 Precious Metals (Jul 19 = 271.4) Agriculture and Livestock (Jul 19 = 146.0) Energy (Jul 19 = 105.5) 300 Industrial Metals (Jul 19 = 103.5) 250 200 150 100 50 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Globalization Institute SOURCES: Goldman Sachs; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 10. Inflation in OECD Economies (CPI) Percent, Year/Year 8 Headline Inflation (May = 3.3) 7 Core Inflation (May = 2.3) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 NOTE: The headline consumer price index (CPI) is the broadest measure of price changes consumers face in their day-to- day living expenses. The core CPI excludes energy and food prices. Globalization Institute SOURCES: OECD; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 11. Global Inflation (Headline CPI) Percent, Year/Year 16 World (May = 3.3) 14 Advanced Economies (May = 2.3) Emerging Economies (May = 4.5) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 NOTES: Calculations are based on a representative sample of 40 countries. Aggregated using U.S.