Global Economic Conditions Charts

GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS Updated July 2021

Globalization Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Table of Contents Special Section: COVID-19 Average Daily Percent Change in the Google Mobility Index in 4. Public Finances Major Advanced Economies Chart 18. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing in Major Oxford Stringency Index in Major Advanced Economies Advanced Economies COVID-19 Deaths Per Million in Major Advanced Economies Chart 19. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing in Major COVID-19 Tests Per Case in Major Advanced Economies Emerging Economies Chart 20. General Government Gross Debt in Major Advanced 1. Indicators of Real Activity Economies Chart 1. Global GDP Growth Chart 21. General Government Gross Debt in Major Emerging Chart 2. OECD Industrial Production Economies Chart 3. Global Purchasing Managers Index 5. Monetary Policy Chart 4. Unemployment in Major Advanced Economies Chart 22. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major Advanced Chart 5. Unemployment in OECD Economies Economies Chart 6. Volume of World Merchandise Trade Chart 23. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major Emerging Chart 7. Volume of World Merchandise Trade Economies Chart 8. Baltic Dry Index Chart 24. Money Supply Growth in Major Advanced Economies Chart 25. Money Supply Growth in Major Emerging Economies 2. Inflation Indicators Chart 9. Commodity Prices 6. U.S. External Accounts Chart 10. Inflation in OECD Economies (CPI) Chart 26. U.S. Terms of Trade Chart 11. Global Inflation (Headline CPI) Chart 27. U.S. Nominal Trade Balance, Customs Value Chart 12. Inflation in Major Advanced Economies (Headline CPI) Chart 28. U.S. Current Account Balance Chart 13. Inflation in Major Emerging Economies (Headline CPI) Chart 29. Nominal Value of the U.S. Dollar Chart 30. Real Value of the U.S. Dollar 3. Money and Capital Markets Chart 14. Money Market Spreads 7. Current Analysis Chart 15. 10-Year Government Bond Yields in Major Advanced Chart 31. Global Current Account Balances Economies Chart 32. Bond Spreads for Select Euro Area Economies Chart 16. Stock Market Indexes in Major Advanced Economies Chart 17. Stock Market Indexes in Major Emerging Economies Special Section: COVID-19

Globalization Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 7-Day Moving Average of the Google Mobility Index in Percent Major Advanced Economies 10

-10

-20

-30

-40 U.S. -50 Euro Area -60 Japan U.K. -70 Canada -80 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July

NOTES: Categories from the Google Mobility Index included in the 7-day simple average are retail & recreation, grocery & pharmacy, transit stations, and workplaces. Data last updated July 21, 2021.

Globalization Institute SOURCE: Google Mobility Index, https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Oxford Stringency Index in Major Advanced Economies

U.S. Euro Area Japan U.K. Canada

100

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July

SOURCE: Hale, Thomas, Sam Webster, Anna Petherick, Toby Phillips, and Beatriz Kira (2020). Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Blavatnik School of Government. Data use policy: Creative Globalization Institute Commons Attribution CC BY standard. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas COVID-19 Cumulative Deaths Per Million in Major Advanced Economies 2500 U.S.

Germany 2000 Japan

U.K.

1500 Canada

1000

500

0 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July

Globalization Institute SOURCES: Haver, John Hopkins. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas COVID-19 Tests Per Case in Major Advanced Economies 600

500 U.S. Euro Area 400 Japan U.K. Canada 300

200

100

0 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July NOTES: Data last updated July 21, 2021. COVID-19 tests per case is equal to the 7-day moving average of the number of tests divided by the number of cases per day.

Globalization Institute SOURCE: Our World in Data (OWID). Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Indicators of Real Activity

Globalization Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 1. Global GDP Growth Percent, Year/Year 14

-2

World (2021 Q2 = 1.95) -6 Advanced Economies (ex. U.S.) (2021 Q1 = -1.4)

-10 Emerging Economies (2021 Q2 = 3.8) U.S. (2021 Q1 = 0.4) -14 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 NOTE: The advanced economies (ex. U.S.) aggregate includes the Euro Area, Japan, the U.K., Canada, Australia, South Korea, Switzerland and Sweden. The emerging economies aggregate includes China, Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey, Argentina, South Africa and Colombia. The world aggregate includes these countries, which make up approximately 80 percent of world GDP computed using purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted GDP weights.

Globalization Institute SOURCES: National Statistical Offices, International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 2. OECD Industrial Production Index, 2005 = 100 120 Last Observation: Apr = 113.4 115

110

105

100

80 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

NOTE: Countries included in the industrial production index are all members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD (Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom and United States).

Globalization Institute SOURCES: OECD; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 3. Global Purchasing Managers Index

Index 65

30 Manufacturing (Jun = 55.5) Services (Jun = 57.5) 25 Composite (Jun = 56.6)

20 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

NOTE: This index measures purchasing managers' perspectives of current business conditions. An index value greater than 50 indicates economic expansion from the previous month, while a value below 50 indicates contraction.

Globalization Institute SOURCES: JPMorgan; Bloomberg Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 4. Unemployment in Major Advanced Economies Percent 16 U.S. (Jun = 5.9) Euro Area (May = 7.9) 14 Japan (May = 3.0) U.K. (Apr = 4.8) 12 Canada (Jun = 7.8)

0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

NOTE: The chart plots harmonized unemployment data for the U.K.

Globalization Institute SOURCES: National Statistical Offices, EUROSTAT; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 5. Unemployment in OECD Economies

Percent 9 Last Observation: May = 6.7 8

0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Globalization Institute SOURCES: OECD; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 6. Volume of World Merchandise Trade Index, 2000 = 100 220

200

180

160

140

120

100

60 Last Observation: Apr = 195.2

40 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

NOTE: This series includes data from 23 industrialized and 60 emerging market economies and covers approximately 97 percent of total world trade. Trade volume is calculated as the arithmetic average of world export volumes and world import volumes.

Globalization Institute SOURCES: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 7. Volume of World Merchandise Trade

Imports Exports Index, 2000 = 100 320

280

240

200

160

120

World (Apr = 195.0) World (Apr = 195.4) 40 Advanced Economies (Apr = 161.2) Advanced Economies (Apr = 170.2) Emerging Economies (Apr = 345.0) Emerging Economies (Apr = 268.3) 0 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 NOTE: Import and export series include data from 23 industrialized and 60 emerging market economies and cover approximately 97 percent of total world trade.

Globalization Institute SOURCES: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 8. Baltic Dry Index Index, 1/4/1985 = 1,000 14,000 Last Observation: July 12 = 3300

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 NOTE: The Baltic Dry Index is a maritime shipping index that measures charter rates for shipping dry bulk commodities such as coal, grain and iron ore.

Globalization Institute SOURCES: Baltic Exchange; Bloomberg Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Inflation Indicators

Globalization Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 9. Commodity Prices Index, Jan. 2007 = 100

350 Precious Metals (Jul 19 = 271.4) Agriculture and Livestock (Jul 19 = 146.0) Energy (Jul 19 = 105.5) 300 Industrial Metals (Jul 19 = 103.5)

250

200

150

100

0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Globalization Institute SOURCES: Goldman Sachs; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 10. Inflation in OECD Economies (CPI) Percent, Year/Year 8 Headline Inflation (May = 3.3) 7 Core Inflation (May = 2.3)

-1

-2 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

NOTE: The headline consumer price index (CPI) is the broadest measure of price changes consumers face in their day-to- day living expenses. The core CPI excludes energy and food prices.

Globalization Institute SOURCES: OECD; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 11. Global Inflation (Headline CPI) Percent, Year/Year 16 World (May = 3.3) 14 Advanced Economies (May = 2.3) Emerging Economies (May = 4.5) 12

-2 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

NOTES: Calculations are based on a representative sample of 40 countries. Aggregated using U.S. trade weights. Shaded bars indicate global recessions (Grossman, Mack and Martínez-García (2015): "A Contribution to the Chronology of Turning Points in Global Economic Activity (1980-2012)," Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 46, pp. 170-185). Globalization Institute SOURCES: Database of Global Economic Indicators; Haver Analytics. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 12. Inflation in Major Advanced Economies (Headline CPI) Percent, Year/Year 6

-2 U.S. (Jun = 5.3) Euro Area (Jun = 2.0) -4 Japan (May = 0.0) U.K. (Jun = 2.5) Canada (May = 3.5) -6 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Globalization Institute SOURCES: National Statistical Offices, European Central Bank; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 13. Inflation in Major Emerging Economies (Headline CPI)

Percent, Year/Year 20 Brazil (Jun = 9.2) Russia (Jun = 6.5) India (May = 5.3) Indonesia (Jun = 1.3) 15 China (Jun = 1.1) South Africa (May = 5.2)

-5 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Globalization Institute SOURCES: National Statistical Offices; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Money and Capital Markets

Globalization Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 14. Money Market Spreads Basis Points 400 U.S. Dollar (Jul 16 = 14) 350 Euro (Jul 16 = -4.8) Japanese Yen (Jul 16 = -5) 300 U.K. Pound Sterling (Jul 16 = 4)

250

200

150

100

0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 -50

NOTE: The chart plots the spread, or difference, between 3-month interbank offered rates (Libor for the dollar, yen and pound sterling; Euribor for the euro) and the overnight index swap rate for each currency.

Globalization Institute SOURCES: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 15. 10-Year Government Bond Yields in Major Advanced Economies

Percent U.S. (Jul 16 = 1.3) 6 Euro Area (Jul 16 = -0.4) Japan (Jul 16 = 0.0) 5 U.K. (Jul 15 = 0.8) Canada (Jul 16 = 1.2) 4

-1

-2 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Globalization Institute SOURCES: Financial Times, Reuters, Bank of Canada; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 16. Stock Market Indexes in Major Advanced Economies

Index, Jan. 2007 = 100 300 U.S. (Jul 16 = 279) Euro Area (Jul 16 = 98) Japan (Jul 19 = 160) 250 U.K. (Jul 16 = 113) Canada (Jul 16 = 160) 200

150

100

0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

NOTE: Stock market indexes are the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index for the U.S, the EURO STOXX 50 Price Index for the Euro Area, the Nikkei 225 Average Index for Japan, the FTSE 100 Index for the U.K. and the S&P/TSX Composite Index for Canada.

Globalization Institute SOURCES: Financial Times, Wall Street Journal; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 17. Stock Market Indexes in Major Emerging Economies Brazil (Jul 16 = 300) Russia (Jul 16 = 89) Index, Jan. 2007 = 100 India (Jul 19 = 387) Indonesia (Jul 19 = 338) 400 China (Jul 19 = 124) South Africa (Jul 16 = 271) 350

300

250

200

150

100

0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

NOTE: Stock market indexes are the Bovespa Index for Brazil, the RTS Index for Russia, the Bombay SENSEX for India, the Jakarta Composite for Indonesia, the New Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index for China and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange Top 40 Index for South Africa.

Globalization Institute SOURCES: Financial Times, Wall Street Journal; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Public Finances

Globalization Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 18. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing Percent of GDP 4

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10 U.S. (2021 = -15.0) -12 Euro Area (2021 = -6.7) Japan (2021 = -9.4) -14 U.K. (2021 = -11.8) -16 Canada (2021 = -7.8)

-18 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

NOTES: Data for U.S., Euro Area, and Japan for 2020 are estimates. Data for 2021 are estimates. Globalization Institute SOURCES: International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 19a. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing

Brazil (2021 = -8.3) Russia (2021 = -0.8) Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 0 12 -4 8 4 -8 0 -12 -4 -16 -8 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

India (2021 = -10.0) Indonesia (2021 = -6.1)

Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 0 2

-4 0 -2 -8 -4 -12 -6 -16 -8 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 NOTES: Data for 2021 are estimates. Russia data for 2020 is an estimate. Globalization Institute SOURCES: International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 19b. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing

China (2021 = -9.6) South Africa (2021 = -10.6) Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 4 4 0 0 -4 -4 -8 -8 -12 -12 -16 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

NOTE: Data for 2021 are estimates. China data for 2020 is an estimate. Globalization Institute SOURCES: International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 20. General Government Gross Debt Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 140 300

120 250

100 200

80 150 60

100 40 US (2021 = 132.8) Euro Area (2021 = 98.2) 50 20 UK (2021 = 107.1) Canada (2021 = 116.3) Japan (2021 = 256.5) 0 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 NOTES: Data for U.S., Euro Area, and Japan for 2020 are estimates. Data for 2021 are estimates Globalization Institute SOURCES: International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 21a. General Government Gross Debt Brazil (2021 = 98.4) Russia (2021 = 18.1) Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 105 60 95 50 40 85 30 75 20 65 10 55 0 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

India (2021 = 86.6) Indonesia (2021 = 41.4) Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 95 60

85 40 75 20 65

55 0 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

NOTES: Data for 2021 are estimates. Russia data for 2020 is an estimate. Globalization Institute SOURCES: International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 21b. General Government Gross Debt

China (2021 = 69.6) South Africa (2021 = 80.8) Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 80 85 70 75 60 65 50 55 40 45 30 35 20 25 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

NOTES: Data for 2021 are estimates. China data for 2020 is an estimate. Globalization Institute SOURCES: International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Monetary Policy

Globalization Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 22. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major Advanced Economies

Percent 7 U.S. (Jul 16 = 0.125)

6 Euro Area (Jul 19 = 0.00) Japan (Jul 19 = -0.10) 5 U.K. (Jul 19 = 0.10) 4 Canada (Jul 19 = 0.25)

-1 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 NOTES: The chart plots the federal funds rate for the U.S., the main refinancing operation rate for the Euro Area, the base rate for the U.K., the overnight target rate for Canada and the uncollateralized overnight call rate for Japan applied until April 3, 2013, before the main operating policy target changed to expanding the monetary base. On February 16, 2016, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) adopted negative interest rates applied to excess reserves that financial institutions hold at the BoJ. The Bank also introduced an interest rate target of around 0 percent for its 10-year government bond yields in September 2016. Globalization Institute SOURCES: National Central Banks; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 23a. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major Emerging Economies Brazil Russia Percent Percent 25 Overnight SELIC Target Rate (Jul 19 = 4.25)25 Bank of Russia Key Rate (Jul 19 = 5.50) 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 India Indonesia Percent Percent 10 Repo Rate (Jul 19 = 4.00) 14 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate (Jul 19 = 3.50) 8 12 10 6 8 4 6 2 4 Reverse Repo Rate (Jul 19 = 3.35) 2 Bank of Indonesia Rate (Aug 2016 = 6.50) 0 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

NOTE: The Reserve Bank of India utilizes the repo rate to inject liquidity into the monetary system and the reverse repo rate to remove liquidity. On August 19, 2016, the Bank of Indonesia changed its policy rate from the BI rate to the 7-day reverse repo rate. Globalization Institute SOURCES: National Central Banks; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 23b. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major Emerging Economies

China South Africa Percent Percent 10 Central Bank Policy Rate (Jul 12 = 3.85) 14 8 12 10 6 8 4 6 4 2 2 1-Year Deposit Rate (Jul 19 = 1.50) Average Repo Rate (Jul 19 = 3.50) 0 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Globalization Institute SOURCES: National Central Banks; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 24. Money Supply Growth in Major Advanced Economies Percent, Year/Year 30 U.S. (May = 13.8) Euro Area (May = 7.5) 25 Japan (Jun = 5.9) U.K. (May = 7.3) 20 Canada (Apr = 13.5)

-5

-10 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

NOTE: The chart plots M2 in the Euro Area, U.S., Japan and Canada and M4 in the U.K. Globalization Institute SOURCES: National Central Banks; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 25. Money Supply Growth in Major Emerging Economies

Percent, Year/Year 70 Brazil (May = 11.3) Russia (May = 11.5) 60 India (Jun = 14.9) Indonesia (May = 8.1) 50 China (Jun = 8.6) 40 South Africa (May = 3.7)

-10

-20

-30 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

NOTE: The chart plots M2 for each country. Globalization Institute SOURCES: National Central Banks; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas U.S. External Accounts

Globalization Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 26. U.S. Terms of Trade

Index, Jan. 1990 = 100

125 Terms of Trade (Jun = 102.5) Terms of Trade (Excluding Oil) (Jun = 88.8) 120

115

110

105

100

80 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

NOTE: U.S. terms of trade are calculated as the import price index/export price index.

Globalization Institute SOURCES: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 27. U.S. Nominal Trade Balance, Customs Value

Bil. U.S. Dollars 0 Last Observation: May = -88.2 -10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

-70

-80

-90

-100 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

NOTE: The chart plots the nominal trade balance in goods.

Globalization Institute SOURCES: Census Bureau; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 28. U.S. Current Account Balance

Percent of GDP 0 Last Observation: 2021 Q1 = -3.6 -1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-6

-7 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

NOTE: All values are nominal.

Globalization Institute SOURCES: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 29. Nominal Value of the U.S. Dollar

Index, Jan. 2000 = 100 150

140

130

120

110

100

70 Nominal Exchange Value of the U.S. Dollar (Jun = 106.3)

60 U.S. Dollar vs. Major Currencies (Jun = 89.9) U.S. Dollar vs. Other Important Trading Partners (Jun = 131.9) 50 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

NOTE: Countries or regions whose currencies are included in the major currencies index are the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia and Sweden. Countries included in the other important trading partners index are Mexico, China, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile and Colombia. An increase in each index represents an appreciation of the U.S. dollar and a decrease represents a depreciation. Globalization Institute SOURCES: Federal Reserve Board; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 30. Real Value of the U.S. Dollar

Index, Jan. 2000 = 100 120

110

100

80 Real Exchange Value of the U.S. Dollar (Jun = 101.2) 70 U.S.Dollar vs. Major Currencies (Jun = 104.2) U.S.Dollar vs. Other Important Trading Partners (Jun = 100.1) 60 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Globalization Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 31. Global Current Account Balances

US Bil. U.S. Dollars China 1500 Japan Others 1000 Oil Exporters Germany

500

-500

-1000

-1500 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 NOTE: Oil exporting countries are Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. The remaining countries not already listed for which there is data comprise "Others". Striped columns denote forecasts. Globalization Institute SOURCES: International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chart 32. Bond Spreads for Select Euro Area Economies

Basis Points 4000 Greece (Jul 16 = 103) Ireland (Jul 16 = 39) 3500 Portugal (Jul 16 = 63) Spain (Jul 16 = 71) 3000 Italy (Jul 16 = 107)

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

NOTE: The chart shows the spread, or difference, in interest rates between 10-year government bonds for various countries and German 10-year government bonds.

Globalization Institute SOURCES: Reuters; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas