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Kotak Mahindra Bank Strong Fundamentals, Positive Performance

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Kotak Mahindra Bank Strong Fundamentals, Positive Performance Kotak Mahindra Bank Strong fundamentals, Positive performance Powered by the Sharekhan 3R Research Philosophy Banks & Finance Sharekhan code: KOTAKBANK Result Update Update Stock 3R MATRIX + = - Summary Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB) posted positive results for Q4FY2021, where while the Right Sector (RS) ü core operational performance was largely in-line, asset-quality performance was positive. Right Quality (RQ) ü Asset quality improved as KMB saw sequentially lower GNPA/NNPAs for Q4FY2021 at 3.25%/1.21% in Q4FY2021 as compared to 3.27%/1.24% levels in Q3FY2021 Right Valuation (RV) ü (proforma basis), with a q-o-q decline in SMA-2 accounts. The bank’s management commentary was positive, which is encouraging. KMB is + Positive = Neutral - Negative well capitalised, with low drag from NPAs and strong leadership, which we believe allows the right mix to the bank. What has changed in 3R MATRIX We maintain Buy on the stock with our SOTP-based PT of Rs. 2,130. Old New Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB) posted positive results for Q4FY2021. The bank’s core operational performance was largely inline. Asset-quality performance enthused for the RS quarter. NII came at Rs. 3,842 crore, up 8% y-o-y and nearly flat on a q-o-q comparison, which was below expectations. PPOP stood at Rs. 3,407 crore, up 25% y-o-y and 17.4% q-o-q, which RQ was mainly helped by strong other income growth as the bank saw fee income to grow to Rs. 1,378 crore for Q4FY2021, up 8.5% y-o-y but up by ~23% q-o-q. Due to higher provisions, RV PAT came at Rs. 1682.4 crore, up 32.8% y-o-y but down 8% q-o-q. Asset quality improved as KMB saw sequentially lower GNPA/NNPAs for Q4FY2021 at 3.25%/1.21% as compared Reco/View Change to 3.27%/1.24% levels in Q3FY2021 (proforma basis). The Special Mention Accounts (SMA2) outstanding stand at Rs. 110 crore (5 bps of Net Advances), improving from Rs. 654 crore (31 Reco: Buy bps of net advances), which not only improved significantly on a q-o-q basis but are also at very manageable levels. Total restructuring implemented has been only Rs. 435 crore CMP: Rs. 1,724 (0.19% of net advances), which is insignificant. Credit cost excluding COVID-19 provisioning Price Target: Rs. 2,130 for FY2021 stood at 84 bps of net advances. The bank did not dip into its COVID-19 provision (of Rs. 1,279 crore) during Q4FY2021. Total provisions (including specific, standard, COVID-19 á Upgrade Maintain â Downgrade related, etc.) held as of March 31, 2021, are Rs. 7,021 crore, which is 95% of GNPA and, hence, provide a cushion against asset-quality surprise. Strength in the liability profile indicates Company details that the margin outlook is likely to be stable (with a positive bias) for the medium term. Management commentary is more positive on growth, which is encouraging. The bank is Market cap: Rs. 3,41,728 cr well capitalised, with low drag from NPAs and strong leadership, which we believe allows 52-week high/low: Rs. 2,049 / 1,110 the right mix to the bank. The bank has strong capitalisation, low-cost liability base, and has ample dry powder to rev up growth as and when the situation normalises. We maintain Buy NSE volume: on the stock with our SOTP-based price target (PT) of Rs. 2,130. 50.4 lakh (No of shares) Key positives BSE code: 500247 Reported GNPA/NNPA at 3.25%/1.21%, down from (proforma) GNPA/NNPA of 3.27%/1.24% in December 2020. NSE code: KOTAKBANK During Q2FY2020, the bank’s CASA ratio improved to 60.4% (of total deposits) from 58.9% Free float: (increasing by 150 bps sequentially), taking it to the best-ever CASA ratio yet again. 146.5 cr (No of shares) Key negatives Slow advances growth, with advances growing tepidly by 1.8% y-o-y and 4.5% q-o-q to Rs. Shareholding (%) 223,689 crore. Our Call Promoters 26.0 We value KMB on a standalone basis at ~4.5x its FY2023E book value and its subsidiaries at FII 48.9 ~Rs. 490 per share. The bank’s strong operating metrics, prudent and agile leadership team, well-capitalised balance sheet, as well as quality of its subsidiaries (formidable players in their DII 12.9 own segments) provide long-term value to franchises. The stock is available at 4.8x/4.3x its FY2022E/FY2023E BVPS. With the recent QIP and capital issue, the bank is placed comfortably Others 12.2 with tier-1 capital of 23.6% (standalone) and has the wherewithal for capitalising on opportunities. We recommend Buy on the stock with an SOTP-based PT of Rs. 2,130. Price chart Key Risks 2200 Any delay in economic pickup may elongate the recovery trajectory, resulting in consequent 1900 rise in risk of NPAs affecting profitability. 1600 Valuation Rs cr Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E 1300 NII 11,259 13,500 15,340 17,417 20,439 1000 PPoP 8,348 10,021 12,215 12,621 14,834 21 20 20 20 - - - - Apr Sep PAT 4,865 5,947 6,965 8,319 9,660 Dec May EPS (Rs.) 25.5 30.9 36.6 43.7 50.7 Price performance BVPS (Rs.) 224.7 256.2 334.6 373.6 422.3 (%) 1m 3m 6m 12m PE (x) 67.6 55.8 47.1 39.5 34.0 Absolute -2.0 -5.6 13.4 41.8 PBV (x) 7.7 6.7 5.2 4.6 4.1 Relative to RoE (%) 11.3 12.1 10.9 11.7 12.0 -1.1 -2.6 -10.2 -15.0 Sensex RoA (%) 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 Sharekhan Research, Bloomberg Source: Company; Sharekhan estimates May 03, 2021 1 Powered by the Sharekhan 3R Research Philosophy Update Stock Concall Key Highlights COVID-19 update: The bank has witnessed the loss of many lives and, hence, it has taken the call to save the lives of each employee. Management has decided that for the next one week, no person will venture out of home unless legally required to step out. Branches are expected to work with three out of normally 8-10 employee strength. Management strategy going forward: View is that proper underwriting and right segment will be continue to be the focus areas. Segments where KMB had earlier been cautious have served the bank well. Unsecured book: Total unsecured retail lending, which was 7.5% in FY2020, is now 5.8% in FY2021 of the total balance sheet. The bank is ready to grow in these segments and hopes the COVID-19 curve will come down in June-July 2021. RBI regulation on leadership transition: The bank has time till December 2023. The bank and the board are well aware and would like to assure that the bank will be taking steps to ensure continuity in shareholder value and business. Promoters are committed to maintain their stake in the bank. Low-cost liability franchise: Healthy low-cost liability base allows the bank to do more of the cards business as well as mortgage business, which will help the bank offer not only healthy returns but will also be acting as future channels for business growth. Growth outlook: The bank is looking to grow and does not see its strategy too much changing due to COVID-19 resurgence. That said, the bank is considering all probabilities and possibilities in its strategy to chart out an optimal course. Business mix: The mix at this stage shows that there has been a larger proportion of secured loans for KMB. The bank sees opportunities to gain market share in the secured business. Management has also been seeing opportunities in unsecured book too, but growth there will be backed by its conservative underwriting. The bank does not see long-term structural risk to growth from the pandemic, but medium- term challenges will persist. Slippages: Slippages were Rs. 5,400 crore for FY2021 and was Rs. 3,400 crore for FY2020. In H2FY2021, slippages were Rs. 4,400 crore. Write-offs were H2FY2021 at Rs. 530 crore. Write-offs include treasury MTM and security receipts (SRs). Stress: Bulk of the credit cost has come in Q4, since moratorium period weaker accounts have became NPAs Q3FY2021. However, the bank has aggressively provided (between 90-180 days of falling overdue), which resulted in higher credit cost in Q4FY2021. For Q3FY2021 provision for advances stood at Rs. 461 crore, which came higher in Q4 FY2021 at around Rs. 700 crore. Having capital on book is positive, and restructuring of loans needs to be based on account requirement instead of external reasons such as regulatory dispensation etc. ECLGS book has done well. Since the incremental part is guaranteed by Government of India (GOI) and, hence, the bank has confidence on the book. Leadership transition plans: Both Mr. Deepak Gupta and Uday Kotak’s current tenure is till December 2023. The bank believes it has ample time and will be able to chart out the succession plan before the time frame ends. Profitability of mortgage product: Mortgage rates may be low and margin dilutive but KMB has its own strengths, which make it believe that the mortgage business will be margin accretive and value addition for KMB. The bank sees mortgage business is the entry product for customer relations. Low-cost liability is key: COVID-19 has transformed the form and proposition for customers.
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