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Lebanon's 2013 Elections

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Lebanon's 2013 Elections issue number 122 |September 2012 VOTER REGISTRATION TRANSFER PRI- OR TO PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 2011 REPORT OF THE CIVIL SERVICE BOARD “the monthLy” interVIEWS FATIMA www.iimonthly.com • Published by Information International sal SHARAFEDDINE Lebanon’s 2013 eLECTIONS DRAFT LAW AND ELECTIONS IN LIMBO Lebanon 5,000LL | Saudi Arabia 15SR | UAE 15DHR | Jordan 2JD| Syria 75SYP | Iraq 3,500IQD | Kuwait 1.5KD | Qatar 15QR | Bahrain 2BD | Oman 2OR | Yemen 15YRI | Egypt 10EP | Europe 5Euros September INDEX 2012 4 Lebanon’S 2013 ELECTIONS: DRAFT LAW AND ELECTIONS IN LIMBO 9 VOTER REGISTRATION TRANSFER PRIOR TO PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 11 2011 REPORT OF THE CIVIL SERVICE BOARD 15 PHONE BILLS WORTH LBP 16 BILLION DUE ON THE SYRIAN FORCES IN LEBANON 16 THE 1972 LEBANESE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS (3) 18 LEBANESE NATIONAL LOTTERY P: 39 P: 22 19 SCREENING FOR CANCER: DR. HANNA SAADAH 20 PRE-WEDDING ANXIETY: DR. MICHEL NAWFAL 21 THE STATUS OF Lebanon’s rule from 1861 UNTIL 2012 (2): SAID CHAAYA 22 INTERVIEW: FATIMA SHARAFEDDINE P: 45 24 WHERE DO WE GO NOW? 25 NOBEL PRIZES IN LITERATURE (1) 39 AdMINISTRATIVE DECENTRALIZATION 28 CARITAS LEBANON 41 JULY 2012 HIGHLIGHTS 30 POPULAR CULTURE 45 LIBYa’s ELECTIONS 31 dEBUNKING MYTH #61: EXERCISE AND PHYSICAL ACTIVITY REAL ESTATE PRICES IN LEBANON - JULY MUST-READ BOOKS: WEAPONIZING 47 32 2012 ANTHROPOLOGY 48 FOOD PRICES - JULY 2012 33 MUST-READ CHILDren’s bOOK: I AM NOT SLEEPY AND I WILL NOT GO TO BED 50 THE JEWISH DEMOGRAPHY AROUND THE WORLD 34 LEBANON FAMILIES: HASHISHO FAMILIES BEIRUT RAFIC HARIRI INTERNATIONAL DISCOVER LEBANON: AMMATOUR 50 35 AIRPORT - JULY 2012 CIVIL STRIFE INTRO (7) 36 51 LEBANON STATS 4 | LEADER LEBANON’s 2013 ELECTIONS DRAFT LAW AND eleCTIONS in liMBO PROPORTIONAliTY, WOMen’S QUOTA And 14 DISTRICTS The Lebanese Cabinet approved during the session held in the Presidential Palace on Tuesday, August 7, 2012 a draft law for the parliamentary elections due in the spring of 2013. After 11 months of discussions in the Cabinet, the draft electoral law has finally emerged amid the opposition by the three ministers of the Democratic Gathering Bloc. However, the final outcome remains tied to the stance of Parliament where the majority of members are against this draft law. What’s in the draft law? The current draft electoral law has introduced numerous Sectarianism was emphasized in the draft electoral law matters that have never been adopted in any of its through the domination of certain sects over certain predecessors since the 1943 independence. Of those electoral districts, instead of working towards the we mention: creation of sectarian balance. The 4 districts of Beirut Adopting a proportionality-based voting system 2, Western Beqa’a and Rashayya, Tripoli and Akkar- whereby each list (or candidate) obtains a Mennieh-Dennieh, which have a Sunni majority, were proportional number of seats unlike the plurality given 34 seats while 33 seats were allocated to the 2 system, which grants all the seats assigned for each South districts and the Baalbeck-Hermel district, where district to the list that gathers the largest bulk of the Shia’a form a majority. The 3 Maronite districts of votes even if it was ahead of counter lists by only a Bsharri-Batroun-Koura-Zgharta, Jbeil-Kessrouan, and dozens of votes. Matn-Baabda included 32 seats while 16 seats went to Beirut 1 and Zahle and 13 to the Druze district of Aley- Entitling voters to cast two preferential votes to Chouf. single out the most popular candidates in the lists Preparing the ballot papers for the elections in Should any of those expat seats fall advance so as to curb bribes and electoral pressures vacant“ for any reason (e. g residence, Adding a new electoral district for the Lebanese death, resignation), no elections living abroad. This district is entitled to 6 seats shall occur and the President of the distributed equally between Muslims and Christians without determining the sects, which might cause Republic retains the right to appoint an alteration in the sectarian structure of Parliament. a successor to fill the vacancy Should any of those expat seats fall vacant for any reason (e. g residence, death, resignation), “ no elections shall occur and the President of the The unequal distribution of deputies for each district Republic retains the right to appoint a successor to has furthered the imbalance, especially that some fill the vacancy, which causes an encroachment of districts included 7 seats while others were given 14. the executive power on the legislative power. The Christians have always complained that only 33 Using an electoral gender quota to ensure the Christian deputies used to win by the Christian vote presence of at least one woman in every list. This according to the previous electoral laws, but the new quota is restricted to only candidacy and there is no law is likely to raise this number to 48, i.e. up by 15 guarantee that women will necessarily win. seats. issue 122 | The Monthly is published by Information International s.a.l. LEADER | 5 All the stances challenging or massive political and parliamentary opposition of this “supporting this draft law, for they proposal. Chances are we might even go back to the all stem from calculations of victory 1960s’electoral law if we ran out of time, which would yield the same results and thrust us once again in a phase and defeat, not from a fair and of a majority-minority conflict, unless we witnessed square representation a compromise similar to the quadripartite electoral alliance forged in 2005 between Hezbollah, the Future “ and Amal movements and the PSP or the 2008 Doha Prospective results agreement, which yielded the 2009 electoral law and Should we accept the assumption that the results of the the national unity government away from the majority- plurality-based 2009 elections can be applied to the minority intricacies. current proportional system with its different districts (albeit this might not be scientifically correct), March The elections would take place only in case of 8 Forces would be the winner with a majority of 68 agreement over the proposed electoral law. Otherwise, seats against 60 for the March 14 Forces, contrary to we will be expecting either an extension of the current the 2009 elections, when March 14 Forces dominated Parliament’s term, which is an unlikely occurrence, or 71 seats against 57 for their rivals according to the a lapse into a political dilemma that might cripple the following table. country and prevent the presidential elections in 2014. Only then, the compromise would become a must and Hereby, we can understand all the stances challenging all the parties would realize that Lebanon can only be or supporting this draft law, for they all stem from ruled by agreement and harmony. calculations of victory and defeat, not from a fair and square representation. The draft law has passed in the Cabinet but a rocky road still lays ahead of it in The Minister of Social Affairs, Parliament where the majority opposes its ratification. “Wael Bou Faour, described it best The Minister of Social Affairs, Wael Bou Faour, described it best when he said: “the draft electoral law when he said: “the draft electoral will have to navigate risky waters before it reaches law will have to navigate risky waters the shore” and Hariri’s prompt and final rejection of before it reaches the shore“ this draft law was just another proof attesting to the “ issue 122 | September 2012 6 | LEADER Electoral districts, number of seats and voters by sect and prospective results according to proportionality Table 1 # of Prospective # of March 14 March 8 # of Sectarian distribution Sectarian distribution actual outcome based District eligible Forces Forces seats of seats of voters (%) voters in on the 2009 voters votes votes 2009 results Armenian Orthodox: 21.1 Armenian Orthodox:3 Ashrafieh- Maronite: 10 March 14 Armenian Catholic: 1 Rmeil- Greek Orthodox: 13.7 Forces: 5 seats Maronite: 1 Mdawwar- Greek Catholic:7.3 9 Greek Orthodox: 1 195,428 65,071 34,216 30,217 Marfaa- Armenian Catholic:4.2 March 8 Forces: Greek Catholic:1 Saifi- Evangelical: 1.7 4 seats Sunni: 1 Bachoura Minorities: 8.3 Shia’a: 1 Sunni: 18.7 Shia’a: 15 Ras Beirut- Dar Sunni: 5 Sunni: 65 Mreisseh- Shia’a: 1 Shia’a: 14 March 14 Minaa Druze: 1 Druze: 1.5 Forces: 8 Hosn- 10 Evangelical: 1 255,407 Greek Orthodox: 7 103,243 76,600 21,386 March 8 Forces: Zqaq Greek Orthodox: 1 Evangelical: 1.2 2 el-Blat- Christian minorities: Minorities: 9.5 Mazraa- 1 Israeli: 1.8 Msaytbeh Saida- Shia’a: 6 Shia’a: 60 March 14 Sour- Maronite: 2 Maronite: 8.2 Forces: 2 12 364,182 193,672 35,660 140,865 Jezzine- Sunni: 2 Sunni: 17 March 8 Forces: Zahrani Greek Catholic: 2 Christians:1.7 10 Shia’a: 80 Sunni: 7.1 Bint Jbeil- Shia’a: 8 March 14 Maronite: 5.3 Marjeyoun- Druze: 1 Forces: 2 11 392,170 Druze: 3.2 186,194 15,536 156,357 Hasbayya- Greek Orthodox: 1 March 8 Forces: Greek Orthodox: 2.1 Nabatieh Sunni: 1 9 Greek Catholic: 0.5 Christians: 1.8 Greek Catholic: 21 Greek Catholic: 2 Maronite: 17 Sunni: 1 Greek Orthodox: 10 Shia’a: 1 March 14 Sunni: 24 Greek Orthodox: 1 Forces: 7 Zahle 7 159,341 Shia’a: 13 93,376 48,688 41,380 Maronite: 1 March 8 Forces: Armenian Orthodox: 6 Armenian Orthodox: 3 Syrian Orthodox: 3 1 Evangelical: 1 Christian minorities: 5 issue 122 | The Monthly is published by Information International s.a.l. LEADER | 7 Electoral districts, number of seats and voters by sect and prospective results according to proportionality Table 1 # of Prospective # of March 14 March 8 # of Sectarian distribution
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