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The Global Risks Report 2016 Strategic Partner of the Global Risks Report 2016 Insight Report The Global Risks Report 2016 11th Edition The Global Risks Report 2016, 11th Edition is published by the World Economic Forum within the framework of The Global Competitiveness and Risks Team. The information in this report, or on which this report is based, has been obtained from sources that the authors believe to be reliable and accurate. However, it has not been independently verified and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any information obtained from third parties. In addition, the statements in this report may provide current expectations of future events based on certain assumptions and include any statement that does not directly relate to a historical fact or a current fact. These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which are not exhaustive. The companies contributing to this report operate in a continually changing environment and new risks emerge continually. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these statements. The companies contributing to this report undertake no obligation to publicly revise or update any statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise and they shall in no event be liable for any loss or damage arising in connection with the use of the information in this report. World Economic Forum Geneva World Economic Forum® © 2016 – All rights reserved. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, or otherwise without the prior permission of the World Economic Forum. REF: 080116 The report and an interactive data platform are available at http://wef.ch/risks2016 World Economic Forum 91-93 route de la Capite CH-1223 Cologny/Geneva Switzerland Tel.: +41 (0) 22 869 1212 Fax: +41 (0) 22 786 2744 [email protected] www.weforum.org Figure 1: The Global Risks Landscape 2016 Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation Weapons of mass destruction Energy price shock Water crises Large-scale involuntary migration Biodiversity loss and Fiscal crises ecosystem collapse Profound social instability 5.0 Spread of infectious diseases Asset bubble Cyberattacks Food crises Unemployment or Interstate conflict underemployment Critical information infrastructure breakdown Terrorist attacks 4.76 Failure of financial average mechanism or institution Extreme weather events Deflation Adverse consequences of Data fraud 4.5 technological advances Natural catastrophes or theft Failure of State collapse or crisis national governance Unmanageable inflation Man-made environmental catastrophes Illicit trade Failure of critical infrastructure 4.0 Failure of urban planning 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 4.87 average Source: Global Risks Perception Survey 2015. Note: Survey respondents were asked to assess the likelihood and impact of the individual risks on a scale of 1 to 7, 1 representing a risk that is not likely to happen or have impact, and 7 a risk that is very likely to occur and have massive and devastating impacts. See Appendix B for more details. To ensure legibility, the names of the global risks are abbreviated; see Appendix A for the full name and description. Figure 2: The Global Risks Interconnections Map 2016 Natural catastrophes Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse Food crises Extreme weather events Spread of infectious diseases Man-made environmental catastrophes Water crises Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation Failure of critical infrastructure Failure of urban planning Profound social instability Energy price shock State collapse or crisis Large-scale Critical information involuntary migration infrastructure breakdown Unmanageable inflation Adverse consequences of technological advances Failure of national governance Interstate conflict Fiscal crises Asset bubble Weapons of mass destruction Unemployment or underemployment Cyberattacks Deflation Terrorist attacks Illicit trade Data fraud or theft Failure of financial mechanism or institution Source: Global Risks Perception Survey 2015. Note: Survey respondents were asked to identify between three and six pairs of global risks they believe to be most interconnected. See Appendix B for more details. To ensure legibility, the names of the global risks are abbreviated; see Appendix A for the full name and description. Table A: Global Risks 2016 World Economic Forum Global Risk Report Graphics World Economic Forum Global Risk Report Graphics World Economic Forum Global Risk Report Graphics 1. Economic 1. Economic 2. Environmental 3. GeoPolitical 4. Societal Asset bubble in a major Extreme weather events World Economic Forum Global Risk Report Graphics Failure of urban planning World Economic Forum Global Risk Report Graphics World Economic Forum Global Risk Report Graphics 4. Societal 1.1 1.2economy1.3. 1.4. 1.9. 2.1. 2.2.(e.g. floods,2.3. storms, etc.) 3.3. 3.4. 3.5. 4.1. Risk: Asset bubble in a major Risk: Deflation in a major Risk: Failure of a major financial Risk: Failure/shortfall of critical Risk: Unmanageable inflation Risk: Extreme weather events Risk: Failure of climate-change Risk: Major biodiversity loss Risk: Large-scale terrorist attacks Risk: State collapse or crisis (e.g. Risk: Weapons of mass Risk: Failure of urban planning economy economy mechanism or institution infrastructure (e.g. floods, storms, etc.) mitigation and adaptation and ecosystem collapse (land civil conflict, military coup, failed destruction Unmanageable increase in the general Individuals or non-state groups with Poorly planned cities, urban sprawl and 1. Economic or ocean) states, etc.) Unsustainably overpriced assets such as Prolonged ultra-low inflation or deflation Collapse of a financial institution and/ Failure to adequately invest in, upgrade price level of goods and services in Major property, infrastructure and Governments and businesses fail to political or religious goals successfully Nuclear, chemical, biological and associated infrastructure create social, 1. Economic 2.key Enveconomies.ironme ntal commodities, housing, shares, etc. in a in a major economy or region. or malfunctioning of a financial system and secure infrastructure networks environmental damage as well as human Irreversible consequences for the inflict large-scale human or material State collapse of geopolitical importance radiological technologies and materials environmental and health challenges. major economy or region. impacts the global economy. (e.g. energy, transportation and loss caused by extreme weather events. to mitigate climate change, protect environment, resulting in severely damage. due to internal violence, regional or global are deployed creating international crises World Economic Forum Global Risk Report Graphics communications) leads to pressure or a populations and help businesses depleted resources for humankind as instability, military coup, civil conflict, failed and potential for significant destruction. Food crises breakdown with system-wide implications. impacted by climate change to adapt. well as industries. states, etc. IDEA IDEA IDEA IDEA IDEA IDEA IDEA IDEA IDEA IDEA IDEA IDEA • House icons, which could also be interpreted as an • DeflationGraph displaying a decrease, to signify deflation • Bank icon with broken pilinlars, to suggest collapse a • Broken train trackmajor to suggest breakdown • Price tag featuring multiple dollar symbols to • Tornado • GlobFailuree with thermometer, representing the • Upside-dowofn fish with crossesclimate-change for eyes, • Building in target sight • Burning flag • Mushroom cloud, to represent nuclear/chemical 4.2.• Collection of urban buildings to represent an 4.3. 4.4. 4.5. upwards arrow. The house represents the asset, of financial institution of transportation networks represent high prices world climate representing environmental consequences 4.weapons Societal urban area whilst the arrow signifies the inflated price Risk: Food crises Risk: Large-scale involuntary Risk: Profound social instability Risk: Rapid and massive spread migration of infectious diseases Access to appropriate quantities and Major social movements or protests (e.g. quality of food and nutrition becomes Large-scale involuntary migration induced street riots, social unrest, etc.) disrupt Bacteria, viruses, parasites or fungi World Economic Forum Global Risk Report Graphics 1.1 1.2 1.3. 1.4. by conflict, disasters, environmental or political or social stability, negatively cause uncontrolled spread of infectious economy 1.9. 2.1. 2.2. 2.3. mitigation and adaptation a major scale. impacting populations and economic Risk: Asset bubble in a major Risk: Deflation in a major Risk: Failure of a major financial Risk: Failure/shortfall of critical economic reasons. diseases (for instance due to resistance to activity. antibiotics, antivirals and other treatments) economy economy mechanism or institution infrastructure World Economic Forum Global Risk Report Graphics Risk: Unmanageable inflation Risk: Extreme weather events Risk: Failure of climate-change Risk: Major biodiversity loss Large-scale involuntary leading to widespread fatalities and (e.g. floods, storms, etc.) mitigation and adaptation and ecosystem collapse (land Unsustainably overpriced assets such as Prolonged ultra-low inflation or deflation Collapse of a financial institution and/ Failure to adequately invest in, upgrade Unmanageable increase in the general economic disruption.
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