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Britain After Brexit Old Friendships and New Opportunities in the Middle East

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Britain After Brexit Old Friendships and New Opportunities in the Middle East Middle East Council Britain after Brexit Old friendships and new opportunities in the Middle East Crispin Blunt MP Mark Littlewood Kwasi Kwarteng MP General Sir Graeme Lamb Shashank Joshi December 2016 Conservative Middle East Council BRITAIN AFTER BREXIT CONTENTS FOREWORD 2 BY THE RT HON SIR HUGO SWIRE KCMG MP BRITAIN & OUR MIDDLE EAST ALLIES IN THE 3 POST BREXIT ERA BY CRISPIN BLUNT MP THE DEFENCE AND SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF BREXIT 6 BY SHASHANK JOSHI BREXIT AND GLOBAL TRADE OPPORTUNITIES 10 BY KWASI KWARTENG MP BREXIT AND OUR ARMED FORCES 14 BY GENERAL SIR GRAEME LAMB KBE, CMG, DSO BREXIT, BRITAIN, THE MIDDLE EAST AND 17 ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY BY MARK LITTLEWOOD 1 Conservative Middle East Council BRITAIN AFTER BREXIT FOREWORD BRITAIN AFTER BREXIT The Referendum result has changed everything in British politics the effects of which are being felt across the world. Brexit raises many fundamental questions and until the negotiations are completed a degree of uncertainty is inevitable. But on one thing we can count and that is that the United Kingdom will want to continue to trade with the world. Indeed, it may very well be that we will end up rediscovering that buccaneering spirit which saw British companies establishing trading links and pursuing business opportunities in the far flung corners of the globe. In a world where more countries are talking the language of protectionism the U.K. needs to argue for the exact opposite. We need both to increase productivity levels and our exports. Both are achievable. Britain will still want to maintain ties with the EU as we begin to lift or ease the constraints of its many legislative and bureaucratic constraints. The EU leadership is instinctively against this, as it fears contagion amongst member states. Hence there is a punitive element in some of its rhetoric. This will be a huge mistake on their part, punishing us will not resolve anything. By the same token we also need to compromise; we must not reject co-operation outright. After all a disintegrating Europe is not to anyone’s advantage. A special relationship must continue for the Atlantic world to navigate the present crisis - the Atlantic partnership is one of the greatest achievements of the past century and Britain, whatever the outcome of its negotiations, is an essential element of that design. Equally important for our country is our relationships across the Middle East – and it is these old friendships that we must now build-upon to achieve greater bi-lateral co-operation and trade. Many doors are open. The Gulf Cooperation Council has been fruitlessly trying to negotiate a trade deal with the EU for decades and now is the time for us to deal directly with our allies across the region to pursue the host of new opportunities that bi-lateral diplomacy presents. The task is huge. But our history as a globalised trading nation shows this country is more than equal to the challenge. I am very grateful to the authors of this publication who have, over the following pages, explained and anticipated with great skill, some of the most important themes of this new political era and what lies in store for Britain after Brexit. The Rt Hon Sir Hugo Swire KCMG MP Chairman Conservative Middle East Council 2 Conservative Middle East Council BRITAIN AFTER BREXIT BRITAIN & OUR MIDDLE EAST ALLIES IN THE POST BREXIT ERA Crispin Blunt MP Crispin Blunt was elected Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee in June 2015, and since 1997 has sat as MP for Reigate. Prior to entering Parliament, Crispin served in the British Army from 1979 to 1990. Crispin considers, in his piece, the close relationship between Britain and our allies in the Arab world in the post Brexit era. The challenges of the Middle East will not wait for Brexit. Arabic media has quite enough apocalyptic doom of concurrent existential crises to detain it. So it was no surprise that the Middle East press’ post- referendum interest in Britain dissipated rather faster than elsewhere. Britain’s task in reconfiguring its relations with the institutions of the European Union bares little relation to the life and death issues that plague millions of Arabs. Our priorities around Brexit bear no relation to the civilians trapped in the conflicts of Syria, Yemen, and Libya. Laying the groundwork for long term solutions for Syrian refugees and their host communities in Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey has already taken too long. Every additional Israeli settlement in the West Bank places the prospects of an equitable resolution to the conflict another step away. Yet challenging radicalisation and violent extremism and improving the stability and security of the region remain central UK interests. Delivering these and the associated mutually beneficial economic development continues to require high priority. Maintaining full engagement on these issues will be a short term challenge posed by Brexit. It is for this reason that the Foreign Affairs Select Committee recommended that in the event of Brexit the Government should respond by committing to a substantial increase in the funding available to the FCO. This is not only necessary to deal with the increased workload of the task ahead, but it is also required to reverse the cuts of the last six years which have gone too close to the bone. In the last Parliament the Foreign Affairs Select Committee found a wealth of evidence to demonstrate that the FCO’s capability to undertake core work had dipped in recent years. The list of eminent diplomats who have been warning of the dangers of an underfunded FCO has been growing ever since. Government ministers now appear to have their concerns, with Rory Stewart MP, the new Minister of State at the Department for International Development, recently arguing for a doubling of the FCO’s budget in order to ensure that we have the capacity to carry out major operations abroad and to stave off parochialism. 3 Conservative Middle East Council BRITAIN AFTER BREXIT Hopefully the Government will have the sense not to attempt to fund the upcoming Brexit efforts through reprioritising resources within the existing FCO settlement. The Chilcot report detailed the problems that such an approach caused for the funding of civilian programmes in Iraq, with the FCO finding it ‘particularly difficult to identify funding for new activities’, leading to ‘a number of civilian activities that Ministers had identified as a high priority… [being] funded late, and only in part’. There was also ‘no indication that the Government questioned the balance of funding… or considered what the most effective balance of effort might be to achieve the UK’s strategic objectives’. It would be a bitter irony if our efforts in the Middle East were now downgraded in order to fund our upcoming diplomatic challenges in Europe, despite our ongoing strategic objectives in the Arab world. However, we should do more than merely keep our head above water. Whilst the Government has a responsibility to adequately address the upcoming challenges, it should also position itself so that it is ready to seize on the opportunities that Brexit present. First and foremost, a realignment of our trade policy in the British and free trade interest and liberated from European partners lobbying in defence of prized national sectors, Italian tomato producers comes to mind, is a great long-term opportunity to be realised. Secondly, the United Kingdom should strive to develop a more equitable immigration system that levels the playing field for non-EU citizens, with obvious benefits for developing the people-to-people bonds through business and culture that underpin our political relations with the Arab world. The apprehension amongst our Arab allies that the referendum result meant that Britain was withdrawing from the world must be addressed. In the immediate aftermath of the result, our friends in region saw for themselves the unguarded glee of mid-ranking officials in both Iran and Russia. Moscow’s mayor delighted at the assumption that “Without the UK in the EU there won’t be anyone to so zealously defend the sanctions against us”, while a senior aide to Iranian president Hassan Rouhani tweeted that “Stars in the flag of unity are falling in Europe; Britain’s exit from the EU is an historic opportunity for Iran”. However, such optimism from those who seek to gain from the disunity of Europe should prove misplaced. Provided that the Government makes the appropriate commitments to properly fund our Foreign Office, Brexit’s impact on British efforts on the issues that touch the lives of Arabs should be relatively minimal. Our commitment to stand with our allies in the causes which we hold dear should go unaltered. The UK should enhance its role as a leading liberal internationalist force, persistent in its pursuit of good governance and respect for human rights across the region. Theresa May has got off to a sure footed start establishing her commitment to a positive, international role for Britain in the world. This has been reinforced by her appointment of her FCO team. The ex-Mayor of London Boris Johnson and CMEC's former Chairman Sir Alan Duncan are ministers we can have every confidence in to champion a confident and assertive vision going forward. Tobias Elwood MP, growing his reputation as he continues in his post as Minister for the Middle East, will find his brief enhanced by the outlook and knowledge of the Foreign Secretary and his deputy. 4 Conservative Middle East Council BRITAIN AFTER BREXIT The core pillars of our engagement with the Arab world will be unchanged as our pledges to spend 2% of GDP on defence and 0.7% on international aid stand strong; as we remain a leading member of NATO and a nuclear power; as we retain our veto on the United Nations Security Council; and as we continue to be a world leader in soft power through our excellent universities, the BBC, the British Council, and a language that has become the world’s lingua franca.
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