International Criminal Law and Tribunals

Pablo Bal´an

GOV 1740, April 10 2020

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 1 / 33 Menu

I Discuss readings

I Presentation: Geneva Convention (Katie and Hannah)

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 2 / 33 Upcoming presentations

I Week 12: USMCA (Jeannie and Julio)

I Week 13: EU Parliament (Annie and Jack) and EU Council (Hugo)

I Week 14: JCPOA (Carlos and Martino) and Non-Proliferation Treaty (Dash and Oliver)

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 3 / 33 Weekly Zoom Meme

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 4 / 33 Key questions

1. Is there a case of international criminal tribunals? 2. Does the ICC work? 3. What determines support for international legal action?

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 5 / 33 TF ACCOUNTABILITY

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 6 / 33 TF Accountability: Pace

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 7 / 33 TF Accountability: Difficulty

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 8 / 33 TF Accountability: Learning

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 9 / 33 TF Accountability: Amusement

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 10 / 33 TF Accountability: Clarity

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 11 / 33 TF Accountability: The Best

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 12 / 33 TF Accountability: The Worst

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 13 / 33 TF Accountability: Improve

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 14 / 33 TF Accountability: Remote

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 15 / 33 TF Accountability: OH

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 16 / 33 BASS

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 17 / 33 Why realism fails

1. War crimes tribunals entail a distinctive legalism that is different from disguised purges. 2. Some norms of domestic politics occasionally spill over into the international realm 3. Sometimes states pursue justice for victims who are not citizens of the victor states 4. War crimes tribunals are not just conducted after victory 5. Not all victors’ justice is the same: Had he Nazis won WWII, they would not have set up a bona fide war crimes tribunal

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 18 / 33 Luis Moreno Ocampo

I Assistant prosecutor in the trial against the Argentine military junta I Indicted Omar Al-Bashir, Uhuru Kenyatta, Gaddafi, Gaddafi’s son I Kenya: electoral violence in 2007. Opponents joined forces in 2013 election, ran a campaign on an anti-ICC platform

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 19 / 33 Bolton’s speech

1. ICC vests power in a supranational body without the consent of either nation-states or the individuals over which it exercises jurisdiction. Melds judicial and executive branches 2. ICC has jurisdiction over crimes with disputed and ambiguous definitions (especially aggression) 3. ICC has been ineffective at deterring and punishing atrocity crimes 4. ICC is superfluous, because US has domestic judicial system with highest legal standards 5. ICC’s authority has been sharply criticized and rejected by most of the world

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 20 / 33 JO AND SIMMONS

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 21 / 33 Jo and Simmons: Argument

I Research question: Does the ICC deter governments and rebels from killing civilians? I Assumption: The propensity to commit a crime is a function of the likelihood of getting caught and the cost of punishment (Becker 1964) I Argument: The effects of the ICC vary depending on state leaders’ and rebels’ exposure to the risk of prosecution and the importance they attach to the social costs of criminal law violation

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 22 / 33 Simmons: Results

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 23 / 33 Social Deterrence: HR Mobilization (H2B)

I For ratifiers, an increase in the number of HROs has a negative effect on the number of civilian killings (consistent with H2B)

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 24 / 33 Social Deterrence: Aid Pressure (H2A)

I For ratifiers, an increase in aid pressure has a negative effect on the number of civilian killings (consistent with H2A)

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 25 / 33 Effect on Government vs. Rebel Killings

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 26 / 33 CHAPMAN AND CHAUDOIN

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 27 / 33 Argument and research design

I Research Question: What determines citizens’ support for international legal actions?

I Research design: Survey experiment

I Control:“ Some people have suggested that the International Criminal Court should investigate the violence that occurred in other countries”

I Treatment:“ Some people have suggested that the International Criminal Court should investigate the violence that occurred in the Southern part of Kyrgyzstan in 2010”

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 28 / 33 Results

I Approval for the investigations is approximately 83% in the control group I Treatment lowers approval for the investigation by approximately 10%

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 29 / 33 Results by proximity

I In the Osh regions, treatment lowers approval by approximately 16% I In the non-Osh regions, treatment lowers approval of the investigation by approximately 8%

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 30 / 33 Results by group

I Treatment effects are stronger for Uzbek respondents I The more victimized of the two populations shows a greater reticence for ICC investigations Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 31 / 33 I Interpretation: Fear that external investigations may threaten post-violence peace What have we learned?

I Concepts: Legalism, does the ICC work, varieties of deterrence, what determines domestic support for the ICC

I Tooklit: Interaction effects, survey experiments

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 32 / 33 Have a nice weekend

Pablo Bal´an Section 8 GOV 1740, April 10 2020 33 / 33