WORKING PAPER NO. 05-3 CAN THE STANDARD INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CYCLE MODEL EXPLAIN THE RELATION BETWEEN TRADE AND COMOVEMENT? M. Ayhan Kose International Monetary Fund and Kei-Mu Yi* Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia November 2002 This version: January 2005 Can the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation Between Trade and Comovement? M. Ayhan Kose and Kei-Mu Yi1 November 2002 This version: January 2005 1 The previous version of this paper circulated under the title “The Trade-Comovement Problem in Inter- national Macroeconomics.” We thank two anonymous referees for extremely helpful comments that greatly improved the paper. We also thank Julian de Giovanni, Tim Kehoe, Narayana Kocherlakota, Michael Kouparitsas, Paolo Mauro, Fabrizio Perri, Linda Tesar, Eric van Wincoop, Christian Zimmermann, and participants at the 2002 Growth and Business Cycle Theory Conference, the Spring 2002 Midwest Interna- tional Economics Meetings, and at the IMF Research Department brown bag for useful comments. Mychal Campos, Matthew Kondratowicz, Edith Ostapik, and Kulaya Tantitemit provided excellent research assis- tance. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect views of the International Monetary Fund, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, or the Federal Reserve System. Kose: International Monetary Fund, 700 19th St., N.W., Washington, D.C., 20431;
[email protected]. Yi: Re- search Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, 10 Independence Mall, Philadelphia, PA, 19106;
[email protected]. Abstract Recent empirical research finds that pairs of countries with stronger trade linkages tend to have more highly correlated business cycles. We assess whether the standard international business cycle framework can replicate this intuitive result.