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David H. Romer and Justin Wolfers, Editors Br ooki ng s Brookings Papers Pape ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY rs F ALL 2015 ON ECONOMI LOONEY and YANNELIS C AC on Student Loan Defaults TI ELMENDORF VI on Dynamic Scoring TY KUMAR, AFROUZI, COIBION, and GORODNICHENKO on Inflation Targeting and Inflation Expectations BPEA F ALL in New Zealand 2 015 BOLDIN and WRIGHT on Weather-Adjusting Economic Data SYMPOSIUM on the Greek Debt Crisis HAUSMAN and WIELAND on Abenomics in Its Third Year REIS www.brookings.edu on Portugal and the Euro Crisis Adjustment Programs Brookings Papers ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY FALL 2015 DAVID H. ROMER JUSTIN WOLFERS Editors BROOKINGS INSTITUTION PRESS Washington, D.C. Copyright © 2016 by THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 ISSN 0007-2303 ISBN: Print 978-0-8157-2870-2; epub: 978-0-8157-2871-9 Authorization to photocopy items for internal or personal use or the internal or personal use of specific clients is granted by the Brookings Institution for libraries and other users registered with the Copyright Clearance Center Transactional Reporting Service, provided that the basic fee is paid to the Copyright Clearance Center, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923. For more information, please contact CCC at (508) 750-8400. This authorization does not extend to other kinds of copying, such as copying for general distribution, for creating new collective works, or for sale. Specific written permission for such copying must be obtained from the Per- missions Department, Brookings Institution Press, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20036; FAX (202) 536-3623; E-mail [email protected]. Brookings Papers ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY FALL 2015 Editors’ Introduction vii ADAM LOONEY and CONSTANTINE YANNELIS A Crisis in Student Loans? How Changes in the Characteristics of Borrowers and in the Institutions They Attended Contributed to Rising Loan Defaults 1 Comments by Caroline Hoxby and Karen Pence 69 General Discussion 86 DOUGLAS W. ELMENDORF “Dynamic Scoring”: Why and How to Include Macroeconomic Effects in Budget Estimates for Legislative Proposals 91 Comments by Glenn Hubbard and Donald Marron 134 General Discussion 143 SATEN KUMAR, HASSAN AFROUZI, OLIVIER COIBION, and YURIY GORODNICHENKO Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand 151 Comments by Alan S. Blinder and Lars E. O. Svensson 209 General Discussion 219 MICHAEL BOLDIN and JONATHAN H. WRIGHT Weather-Adjusting Economic Data 227 Comments by Katharine Abraham and Claudia Sahm 261 General Discussion 274 SYMPOSIUM on the GREEK DEBT CRISIS JULIAN SCHUMACHER and BEATRICE WEDER DI MAURO Greek Debt Sustainability and Official Crisis Lending 279 CARMEN M. REINHART and CHRISTOPH TREBESCH The Pitfalls of External Dependence: Greece, 1829–2015 307 CHRISTOPHER L. HOUSE and LINDA L. TESAR Greek Budget Realities: No Easy Option 329 YANNIS M. IOANNIDES and CHRISTOPHER A. PISSARIDES Is the Greek Crisis One of Supply or Demand? 349 General Discussion 374 JOSHUA K. HAUSMAN and JOHANNES F. WIELAND Overcoming the Lost Decades? Abenomics after Three Years 385 Comment by Adam Posen 414 General Discussion 426 RICARDO REIS Looking for a Success in the Euro Crisis Adjustment Programs: The Case of Portugal 433 Comment by Kevin H. O’Rourke 448 General Discussion 455 PURPOSE The Brookings Papers on Economic Activity publishes research on current issues in macroeconomics, broadly defined. The journal emphasizes innovative analysis that has an empirical orientation, takes real-world institutions seriously, and is relevant to economic policy. Papers are presented and discussed at conferences held twice each year, and the papers and discussant remarks from each conference are published in the journal several months later. Research findings are described in a clear and accessible style to maximize their impact on economic understanding and economic policymak- ing; the intended audience includes analysts from universities, governments, and businesses. Topics covered by the journal include fiscal and monetary pol- icy, consumption and saving behavior, business investment, housing, asset pric- ing, labor markets, wage- and price-setting, business cycles, long-run economic growth, the distribution of income and wealth, international capital flows and exchange rates, international trade and development, and the macroeconomic implications of health costs, energy supply and demand, environmental issues, and the education system. The conference and the journal are based upon the work partially supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 1459089. The papers and discussant remarks reflect the views of the authors and not necessarily the views of the funding organizations or the staff members, officers, or trustees of the Brookings Institution. CALL FOR Most papers that appear in the Brookings Papers on Economic PAPERS Activity are solicited by the editors, but the editors also con- sider submitted proposals. Editorial decisions are generally made about a year in advance of each conference. Therefore, proposals should be received by September 1 for the following fall conference and by April 1 for the follow- ing spring conference. Proposals should be no more than three double-spaced pages and should be sent to [email protected] or to Sarah Holmes, Brook- ings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20036. ACCESSING For information about previous issues of the journal, partici- THE JOURNAL pants in this conference, and agendas for upcoming confer- ences, visit www.brookings.edu/about/projects/bpea. To purchase subscriptions or single copies, visit www.brookings.edu/press, or contact the Brookings Institution Press at 866-698-0010 or P.O. Box 465, Hanover, PA 17331-0465. Brookings periodicals are available online through both the Online Computer Library Center (contact OCLC subscription department at 800-848-5878) and Project Muse (http://muse.jhu.edu). Archived issues of the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity are available through JSTOR (www.jstor.org). v EDITORS, Henry Aaron Brookings Institution Andrew Abel University of Pennsylvania AUTHORS, Katharine Abraham University of Maryland DISCUSSANTS, Hassan Afrouzi University of Texas, Austin PANEL ADVISERS, Elizabeth Akers Brookings Institution AND STAFF Martin Baily Brookings Institution FOR THE Sandra Black Council of Economic Advisers Alan S. Blinder Princeton University ONE-HUNDREDTH Michael Boldin Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia CONFERENCE William Brainard Yale University Christopher Carroll Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Gerald Cohen U.S. Department of the Treasury Olivier Coibion University of Texas, Austin Richard Cooper Harvard University Steven Davis University of Chicago J. Bradford DeLong University of California, Berkeley Jane Dokko Brookings Institution Jennifer Doleac Brookings Institution John C. Driscoll Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Karen Dynan U.S. Department of the Treasury Janice Eberly Northwestern University Wendy Edelberg Congressional Budget Office Douglas J. Elliott Brookings Institution Douglas W. Elmendorf Brookings Institution William B. English Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Bruce Fallick Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Martin Feldstein Harvard University Jason Furman Council of Economic Advisers Joseph E. Gagnon Peterson Institute for International Economics William G. Gale Brookings Institution Ted Gayer Brookings Institution Sarena F. Goodman Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Robert Gordon Northwestern University Tracy Gordon Urban Institute Yuriy Gorodnichenko University of California, Berkeley Joshua Gotbaum Brookings Institution Carol Graham Brookings Institution Mark Griffiths International Monetary Fund Erica Groshen U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Simona M. Hannon Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Joshua K. Hausman University of Michigan Christopher L. House University of Michigan Caroline Hoxby Stanford University Glenn Hubbard Columbia University Yannis Ioannides Tufts University Michael Kiley Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Jeffrey R. Kling Congressional Budget Office Donald Kohn Brookings Institution Saten Kumar Auckland University of Technology John Lipsky Johns Hopkins University Adam Looney U.S. Department of the Treasury Annamaria Lusardi George Washington University N. Gregory Mankiw Harvard University Donald Marron Urban Institute Alvaro A. Mezza Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Frederic Mishkin Columbia University Adele Morris Brookings Institution Christopher J. Nekarda U.S. Department of the Treasury Kevin H. O’Rourke University of Oxford Maurice Obstfeld International Monetary Fund Peter Orszag Brookings Institution Karen Pence Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System George Perry Brookings Institution Christopher Pissarides London School of Economics Adam Posen Peterson Institute for International Economics Valerie Ramey University of California, San Diego Carmen Reinhart Harvard University Ricardo Reis London School of Economics Alice Rivlin Brookings Institution Liliana Rojas-Suarez Center for Global Development David H. Romer University of California, Berkeley John Sabelhaus Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Claudia Sahm Council of Economic Advisers Diane Schanzenbach Brookings Institution Julian Schumacher Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz Brian M. Scholl Senate Budget Committee Jay Shambaugh Council of Economic Advisers Louise
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