Global Conflict Threats Unrest Continues in Nicaragua

WTPVBRIEFING WAR, TERROR & POLITICAL VIOLENCE LATIN AMERICA

JULY 2018

UNREST CONTINUES IN NICARAGUA

IN DEPTH: MAIN GLOBAL CONFLICT THREATS INDEX

Lead article: Protests in Nicaragua continue 2

Recent events 3

In depth: Main global conflict threats 4-5

Global incidents 6-9

NICARAGUA: UNREST CONTINUES

The Nicaragua Association for Human Rights (ANPDH) on 15 July announced that ten people had been killed in Monimbo (Masaya department). According to local media reports, the violence in Monimbo was perpetrated by the National Police (PN) and paramilitaries as part of a broader security offensive in Masaya, known as “Operation Clean-up”. This was an effort by the regime to “retake control” of Masaya, including by removing street barricades and roadblocks. Despite this, Masaya will continue to be one of the principal hotspots of protest action against the regime going forward. The fatalities point to the continued use of paramilitaries by the government of President Daniel Ortega to repress protest action against it. Protests and violence related to the crisis will continue to pose heightened operational and security threats to foreign companies and their personnel. The Catholic Church on 14 July had secured the release of dozens of students who had spent a night inside a church located next to the campus of the National Autonomous University (UNAN) in the capital Managua. The students had been besieged by paramilitaries who subjected them to sustained gunfire, which resulted in at least one fatality. In another development, paramilitaries on 15 July attacked the vehicle in which Aberlardo Mata, the Bishop of Estelí department, was travelling. This was the latest in a wave of attacks against the Catholic Church, which is mediating a National Dialogue between the regime and the Civic Alliance for Justice and Democracy. The violence brings into sharper focus the continued disproportionate response by the regime, which has included extrajudicial killings – including the shooting of participants in protest marches by snipers – and the deployment of “shock forces” (grupos de choque) armed with high-calibre weapons. International human rights NGO Amnesty International on 9 July publicly criticised the regime’s conduct, declaring that “state repression has reached deplorable levels”. According to Amnesty International, “the message sent” by the leading officials within the regime “is that they are willing to do anything to silence the voice of those who demonstrate against this violent repression”. The regime claims that the violence is by no means “one- sided” and that the security forces have come under attack by protesters armed with homemade mortars. According to local media reports, several PN officers have been killed over the last three months. The notable escalation came amid the build-up to the 39th anniversary on 19 July of the overthrow of the US-backed Somoza Dynasty (1936-79) by Ortega’s Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN). Government paramilitaries in Monimbo, July 2018

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Violent demonstrations escalated after the central government on 6 July announced an increase in fuel prices and transport fees. Anti-government demonstrations will continue for a few weeks despite the measure’s cancellation following an upsurge of violent protests. Political stability is likely to be affected in the medium term as President Jovenel Moïse’s legitimacy continues to decrease. While unlikely to be directly targeted by protesters, the operations of private enterprises are likely to be affected by blockades and telecommunications disruptions. In line with a recommendation by the IMF to increase revenue and balance the country’s budget, the government on 6 July announced that an increase (between 38% and 51%) on fixed fuel prices would be implemented on 7 July. As a consequence of the move, public transport fees across the country would increase as well. However, the announcement caused outrage from locals, who responded by setting up road blockades along major highways, looting businesses, vandalising infrastructure, and setting buildings and offices on fire in the capital Port-au-Prince, and other cities including Cap-Haïtien. The protests lasted for three days and resulted in the deaths of at least four people. Most of the country on 9 July was paralysed as public transport drivers began a strike and several businesses were closed. The demonstrations will persist in the following weeks as social discontent will remain high. Prime Minister Jack Guy Lafontant on 8 July announced that the decision to increase fuel prices had been reversed and that the government had no intention of implementing it in the following months. Moïse urged citizens to remain calm and pleaded with them to stop vandalism during protests. Several political and business groups have demanded that Lafontant and Moïse step down as the government’s leadership is weak and has not been able to tackle the country’s problems, such as low economic growth and high crime rates. Meanwhile, hundreds of local residents have demanded Moïse step down – confidence in the leader has decreased significantly, partly in relation to allegations that several residences on 4 July were demolished without a court order because they were too close to the president’s residence. Although foreign companies are less likely to be targeted than small businesses during protests, their operations are likely to be disrupted in the short term as demonstrators block major roads; the infrastructure of secondary roads is deficient. The restoration of telecommunications networks, which were severely damaged by protesters, is likely to be lengthy as the government’s capability is limited. Companies using airports, ports, and other border crossing points are likely to face delays in the coming days. Nevertheless, it is expected that these offices will close once again if violent protests take place.

Cars set alight in Port-au-Prince during protests, July 2018

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The Institute for Economics and Peace on 6 June released its annual Global Peace Index (GPI), highlighting a continuing trend in reduced global peacefulness. Internal conflict and terrorism are likely to remain the main sources of reduced global peacefulness over the next year. Rising nationalism, sharpening regional competition and a more confrontational US foreign policy all increase the threat of certain major conflict scenarios, though major interstate conflicts remain unlikely. Accidents or miscalculations involving militaries operating in close proximity remain a trigger for conflict escalation, and correspondingly a global security concern.

2018 GLOBALPEACE INDEX

The 2018 GPI ranks the peacefulness of 163 countries and territories. The index is based on 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators across three areas: ongoing domestic and international conflict; societal safety and security; and militarisation. The 2018 index found that global peace levels fell for the fourth consecutive year, by 0.27%. This was driven by deterioration in the peacefulness in 92 countries covered, and across six of the nine regions assessed. Gambia, Liberia, Iraq, Burundi and Senegal all registered improvements from the previous year, while the five most notable drops in peacefulness were recorded in Qatar, Congo (DRC), Togo, Spain and Myanmar. • Qatar on 5 June marked one year since Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt cut off diplomatic ties with the Gulf country and imposed restrictions on the movement of goods and people between Qatar and themselves. • In Congo (DRC), increasing insecurity in several provinces and a highly volatile political transition have contributed to the change in rank. • Togo since August 2017 has experienced a political deadlock and continued protests calling for the end of President Faure Gnassingbé’s rule. • Spain has seen growing political instability on the back of the Catalonia independence referendum in October 2017, while terrorism concerns are rising following the August 2017 vehicle ramming attacks in Barcelona and Cambrils. • In Myanmar, the violent crackdown against the Rohingya Muslim minority in Rakhine state, and intensifying clashes in northern Myanmar were the key drivers for the drop in rank.

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Historic data analysed by the IEP also show that war risks have changed over the past century, and have gradually shifted from interstate to internal conflict and terrorism. This is consistent with Control Risks’ view that the likelihood of major interstate conflict remains low over the next year despite coming under pressure from rising nationalism, sharpening regional competition and a more confrontational US foreign policy under President Donald Trump. These factors all increase the risk of certain major conflict scenarios, particularly between the US and North Korea; the US and China in the South China Sea; the US and Iran; Saudi Arabia and Iran; and Russia and NATO. However, in each of these theatres, the obstacles and constraints on major conflict continue to outweigh the known incentives and objectives of major powers. Nonetheless, accidents or miscalculations involving militaries operating in close proximity with heightened sensitivity in each of these areas remain a trigger for conflict escalation, and correspondingly a global security concern. Neither Israel nor Hizbullah can justify a full-scale conflict with the other. The Shia movement is unlikely to initiate such a conflict while it seeks to consolidate its political position in Lebanon. Attacks by Israel on Hizbullah in Lebanon would almost certainly provoke a military response from the movement. The prospects for war would increase: if Hizbullah significantly increased its weapons manufacturing programmes in Lebanon; if it brought significant numbers of fighters back to Lebanon from Syria; or if it retaliated against Israeli airstrikes in Syria. Israel would make no distinction between Hizbullah and Lebanon and would target the entire country. This might also prompt retaliation from Lebanon’s army and other Shia militant groups operating in Syria.

Displaced Syrians return home, July 2018

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. GERMANY A 29-year-old man was arrested on 12 June during a raid on a residence in the Chorweiler area of Cologne (North Rhine-Westphalia state). The suspect has been charged with producing a biological weapon after a quantity of the toxin ricin was found during the operation. No details of any intended target were released at the time. Although the suspect had expressed support online for IS, no direct militant links had been established.

UNITED STATES The US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) on 13 June arrested a woman – an Israeli citizen and Wisconsin (US) resident – on charges of attempting to provide material support to Islamic State (IS). She allegedly promoted the group’s agenda, facilitated recruitment and maintained instructions on how to make bombs, biological weapons, poisons and suicide vests to assist IS supporters with planning attacks.

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Note: Hiscox Syndicates and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach will lead to removal from the distribution list IRAN The authorities on 11 June said that they had detained 27 members of a terrorist network that was planning attacks in the capital Tehran and in other major cities during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, which ended on 14 June. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps on 10 June said it had fought off three attempts by militants to infiltrate Iran from Iraq over the previous days, and that 13 militants had been killed during these operations.

THAILAND The military on 20 June killed Sulaiman Muhama – a leading member of a Narathiwat-based insurgent group – in Kapho district (Pattani province). Muhama had been wanted on a court warrant for a security case. Separately, police on 21 June found 41 pipe bombs, communication radios, and other equipment on a truck driven by Sarnusee Yatae. Yatae in 2011 was imprisoned for four years for possessing firearms; he was released in 2015. The army said that he was involved in several high-profile attacks, including a military outpost siege in 2011; Narathiwat’s Cho-Airong Hospital in 2016; and a co-ordinated bombings across four provinces on 20 May. Bomb assembly materials were also found in Yatae’s home.

KENYA Local residents in Lokichar (Turkana county) on 29 June blocked oil production sites, demanding increased security in the county and greater participation in the oil industry. They also blocked the Lokichar-Kitale highway, which is the primary transport route for trucks carrying crude oil from Turkana county to the port of Mombasa for export. Protesters stated that they were demonstrating against high levels of insecurity in Turkana and West Pokot counties. They claimed that the safety of oil trucks was being prioritised over that of local residents.

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AFRICA

South President Salva Kiir and rebel leader Riek Machar on 27 June signed a permanent ceasefire agreement Sudan during talks in Khartoum (Sudan). Around 40 people were injured on 26 and 27 June during community protests around a gold mining site in Siguiri Guinea (Kankan region) against power outages. The protesters erected barricades to block the company’s activities until back- up generators were restored. During skirmishes with the public security forces, several local buildings were vandalised. The police used tear gas on 22 June to disperse a demonstration against a late July constitutional referendum in the Comoros capital Moroni; unconfirmed reports said the security forces also used live ammunition to break up demonstrations in both Moroni and Mutsamudu. The Electoral Commission headquarters in Moroni were set alight overnight on 6-7 June. Protesters on 11 June clashed with security forces and set fire to public buildings during a riot in the mining town of Kéniéba (Kayes region). The protest was caused by a dispute between the Gounkoto gold mine and Mali local residents of Kéniéba, with youths accusing the company of favouring hires from the capital Bamako for employment opportunities. One protester was killed in subsequent clashes with the security forces. Nine people were killed and nearly 40 injured on 4 June in three co-ordinated suicide bombings by Niger suspected Islamist militants in the Koura district of regional capital Diffa (Diffa region), close to the border with Nigeria. Boko Haram was suspected of responsibility.

AMERICAS

Students on 14 June attempted to enter Plaza Murillo in the capital La Paz and hurled stones and Molotov cocktails at Bolivia the police who responded with tear gas and water cannon; five officers were injured. Protests began after a student from the Public University of El Alto in late May was killed by a police projectile during a demonstration in El Alto. Students and staff from the University of El Salvador protested in mid-June in the capital San Salvador. El According to local sources, demonstrators blocked lanes with burning tyres. The security forces responded Salvador with tear gas. There were unconfirmed reports of some injuries. Unidentified assailants overnight on 1-2 June shot dead a US-Ecuadorian expatriate in the capital Managua; the Nicaragua expatriate was apparently trying to assist an injured friend. The incident occurred in the vicinity of the Polytechnic University of Nicaragua (UPOLI) campus. There are no indications the victim was specifically targeted as a foreigner. At least eight people died in two attacks in Managua on 16 June, which were apparently related to the political crisis. In the first attack, unidentified armed assailants threw Molotov cocktails into a house in the Carlos Marx neighbourhood, killing six members of the same family. Local residents and civil society groups blamed pro- Nicaragua regime paramilitaries, while the National Police (PN) stated that the attackers were members of a criminal gang. Separately, masked men attacked local residents and municipal government workers clearing a street barricade in the 8 de Marzo neighbourhood. At least one person was killed.

ASIA

Free Papua Organisation (OPM) fighters on 25 June attacked a plane at an airstrip in Nduga regency, Papua province, injuring five police officers and killing three civilians. The police officers were assigned to Indonesia provide security during regional elections on 27 June. The attack was also the second to target a plane in three days. Domestic media outlets reported on 25 June that the Taliban had seized control of nearly 16 checkpoints along Afghanistan the portion of the Kabul-Kandahar highway that runs through Maidan Wardak, which lies to the south-west of the capital. The group that day had reportedly killed around 15 soldiers during clashes after seizing the checkpoints. Thousands of protesters on 10 June demonstrated against a controversial draft regulation that would give investors extended land rights in new special economic zones. Protests broke out in the capital Hanoi, the commercial hub Ho Chi Minh City, the coastal resort city of Nha Trang (south Vietnam) and Nghe An province (north Vietnam). The Vietnam biggest and most violent protests reportedly occurred in Binh Thuan province (south-east Vietnam), where hundreds of demonstrators gathered outside the People’s Committee headquarters in the provincial capital Phan Thiet, throwing rocks and petrol bombs at the office. Clashes were reported between the police and protesters; authorities arrested more than 100 demonstrators across the country. Police counter-terrorism unit Densus 88 on 2 June foiled a plot to attack the national parliament in Jakarta and the Riau parliament by raiding the Riau University campus in Pekanbaru city and arresting three individuals. The main suspect is Indonesia reportedly affiliated to pro-IS domestic militant group Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD), whose members have been linked to attacks across Indonesia over the past two years. The authorities seized four high-explosive devices including pipe bombs.

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Minor scuffles between police and protesters occurred on 20 June in the capital Bucharest, as several thousand Romania people demonstrated against a new criminal procedure code. Traffic was also temporarily disrupted during the event. Several people were detained, including a foreign journalist who was documenting the event. Several dozen members of environmental NGOs and the public on 8 June protested in front of parliament against a bill Croatia on the construction of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal on the Adriatic island of Krk. Interior Minister Gérard Collomb on 24 June stated that police had arrested ten right-wing extremists who were reportedly planning to attack Muslims. The ten members of the radical right-wing Action of Operative Forces (AFO) were reportedly France aiming to stage attacks targeting previously identified radical imams (preachers), released Islamist extremist prisoners, or veiled women chosen at random in public spaces. The suspects are being investigated on terrorism charges. Raids of the suspects’ houses resulted in the discovery of several firearms, grenades and explosives. The National Security Committee on 25 June arrested eight people in the western city of Uralsk on suspicion of planning terrorist Kazakhstan attacks. The eight members of a radical religious group were detained on suspicion of planning terrorist acts, promoting terrorism and engaging in other crimes. Firearms, ammunition and religious material were also seized. Protests against a proposed new country name broke out on 17 June in Skopje after an agreement on the name was Macedonia signed with Greece. Clashes occurred between demonstrators and the police in the vicinity of parliament.

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

Protests over fuel and electricity price hikes and a proposed income tax law began in late May. A demonstration Jordan overnight on 2-3 June near the capital Amman’s Fourth Circle became disruptive when the security forces used tear gas to disperse crowds before they could reach the prime minister’s office. Forces loyal to the internationally recognised government, supported by the Saudi-led coalition, on 13 June launched an Yemen offensive on the Yemeni port city of Hodeidah. Armed clashes on 16 June in the village of Saraain El Faouqa (Baalbek-Hermel governorate). The violence was started by Lebanon renewed conflict between local families; two people were killed. Security forces arrested four suspects and seized weapons. The Saudi air defence system on 24 June intercepted two missiles launched by Yemen’s Houthi rebels over the capital Riyadh. Reuters reported that at least six loud explosions were heard in Riyadh and bright flashes were seen in the sky. Fragments of the Saudi missile were found on a street in the diplomatic quarter, where foreign embassies are located. The Saudi air defence system on Arabia 4 June intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile over Yanbu (Medina province) fired from Yemen by Houthi rebels. Yanbu has been the farthest point from the border with Yemen – nearly 580 miles (930 km) – that Houthi missiles have reached. This is the second time the rebels have targeted Yanbu with a missile (the first took place in July 2017). An Israeli woman on 11 June was injured in an attack in Afula (Northern district). Reports indicate a Palestinian man stabbed the Israel victim at a bus stop on Arlozorov Street; the suspected perpetrator was shot by the police and arrested around an hour later. The authorities described the incident as an “act of terror”, though there was no evidence of direct involvement by a militant group.

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