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Naver(035420.Ks) NAVER (035420.KS) 전 사업부문 높은 매출 성장세 지속 Company Comment │ 2021. 4. 30 광고, 커머스, 콘텐츠, 핀테크, 클라우드 등 주요 사업의 높은 성장세는 ※ESG Index/Event는 3페이지 참조 2021년에도 부각될 전망 Buy (유지) 목표주가 550,000원 (유지) 매출 성장 먼저, 다음엔 영업이익 성장 현재가 (’21/04/29) 366,500원 네이버에 대한 투자의견 Buy 및 목표주가 550,000원 유지. 광고, 커머스, 업종 인터넷 KOSPI / KOSDAQ 3,174.07 / 990.69 콘텐츠, 핀테크 등 전 사업 부문 고른 매출 성장이 2021년에도 두드러질 시가총액(보통주) 60,202.5십억원 전망. 다만, 스톡옵션 관련 비용 증가에 따라 영업이익률 둔화가 우려되나, 발행주식수(보통주) 164.3백만주 매출의 고성장으로 2022년 이후 영업이익은 회복세를 보일 것 52주 최고가(’21/03/18) 403,500원 최저가(’20/04/29) 197,500원 평균거래대금 일 십억원 커머스는 스마트스토어의 1분기 거래대금이 53% y-y 성장하며 이커머스 (60 ) 343.5 배당수익률(2021E) 0.10% 시장을 주도하고 있는 가운데, 8월 중 이마트와의 장보기 서비스가 확대되 외국인지분율 56.9% 고, 브랜드스토어와 라이브커머스의 성과로 거래대금 성장 지속될 전망. 상 주요주주 반기 중 일본 내 스마트스토어 진출로 글로벌 성과도 기대 국민연금공단 10.0% BlackRock Fund Advisors 외 13 5.0% 인 서치플랫폼은 지난해 상반기 코로나19 영향으로 부진했던 광고 시장이 회 주가상승률 3개월 6개월 12개월 복되고 있고 기저효과에 따른 성장세가 두드러짐. 성과형 광고가 고성장하 절대수익률 (%) 6.9 22.8 85.6 고 있는 가운데, 2분기 중 온라인에도 이를 도입할 예정 상대수익률 (%p) 0.2 -10.0 13.9 2020 2021E 2022F 2023F 웹툰은 5월 중 왓패드 인수를 마무리짓고 하반기 중 의미있는 성장을 보일 매출액 5,304 6,683 7,793 8,739 증감률 -19.6 26.0 16.6 12.1 전망. 아직 비즈니스모델이 많지 않은 왓패드를 통해 수익성 확보가 기대 영업이익 1,215 1,304 1,599 1,872 됨. 지난해 소폭 주춤했던 일본 라인망가 역시 리뉴얼과 연재형 콘텐츠 추 증감률 71.1 7.3 22.6 17.1 가로 하반기부터는 의미있는 매출 성장 기대 영업이익률 22.9 19.5 20.5 21.4 (지배지분)순이익 1,002 16,342 1,653 1,926 EPS 6,097 99,486 10,063 11,722 증감률 기대치를 충족한 1분기 실적 기록 72.3 1,531.7 -89.9 16.5 PER 48.0 3.7 36.4 31.3 네이버는 1분기 매출액 1.499조원(+29.8% y-y, -0.9% q-q), 영업이익 PBR 6.5 2.6 2.4 2.3 2,888억원(-1.0% y-y, -10.8% q-q)을 기록해, 영업이익 당사 추정치 EV/EBITDA 27.9 32.5 27.2 23.5 ROE 15.2 107.0 6.9 7.5 2,811억원 및 컨센서스 2,949억원을 충족. 광고, 커머스, 웹툰, 클라우드 부채비율 106.1 34.1 35.1 35.5 등 주요 사업의 매출 성장은 양호한 반면, 임직원 대상으로 부여한 스톡옵 순차입금 -1,166 -2,603 -2,738 -3,191 션 관련 비용이 증가하며 영업이익은 전년동기대비 역성장을 기록. 2분기 단위: 십억원, %, 원, 배 주: EPS, PER, PBR, ROE는 지배지분 기준 이후에도 관련 비용은 계속적으로 증가하여 영업이익률은 둔화될 전망 자료: NH투자증권 리서치본부 전망 NAVER 1분기 실적 Review(K-IFRS 연결) (단위: 십억원, %) 1Q21P 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 2Q21F 발표치 y-y q-q 당사추정 컨센서스 매출액 1,155 1,276 1,361 1,513 1,499 29.8 -0.9 1,468 1,487 1,619 영업이익 291.8 308.1 291.7 323.8 288.8 -1.0 -10.8 281.1 294.9 306.7 영업이익률 25.3 24.1 21.4 21.4 19.3 - - 19.2 19.8 18.9 Analyst 안재민 세전이익 420.1 289.3 361.6 550.4 16,540 3,837 2,905 399.0 1,055 418.1 02)768-7647, [email protected] (지배)순이익 184.8 147.3 245.5 415.7 15,310 8,185 3,583 281.6 709.2 309.2 주: LINE이 연결 기준에서 제외된 실적으로 2020년 1분기 이후 소급 적용, IFRS 연결기준 자료: FnGuide, NH투자증권 리서치본부 전망 NAVER www.nhqv.com Summary 네이버는 1999년 6월 설립되어 2008년 6월 코스피에 상장된 온라인 광고 및 콘텐츠 사업자. 2020년 매출액은 5조 3,041억원(+21.8% y-y)이며 매출 비중은 서치플랫폼 약 52.8%, 커머스 약 20.5%, 핀테크 12.8%, 콘텐츠 및 기타 약 13.9% 등으로 구성. 핀테크 및 콘텐츠 영역에서 공격적인 사업 확장 통한 외형 성장 진행 중 Share price drivers/Earnings Momentum Downside Risk 높은 검색광고 점유율 기반으로 한 쇼핑 및 페이와의 상대적으로 광고 경기에 덜 민감한 편이나, 경기 둔화 사업 시너지 영향을 받을 수밖에 없음 네이버파이낸셜을 통한 핀테크 사업 확대 미국의 반독점법 통과 가능성 및 한국의 온라인 플랫폼에 대한 규제 네이버웹툰의 성공적인 글로벌 확장에 따른 매출 성장 Cross valuations (단위: 배, %) Historical valuations (단위: 배, %) PER PBR ROE Company Valuations 2019 2020 2021E 2022F 2023F 2021E 2022F 2021E 2022F 2021E 2022F Alphabet 28.5 26.0 6.2 5.2 23.0 21.1 PER 52.7 48.0 3.7 36.4 31.3 Facebook 25.1 21.3 5.7 4.4 24.8 22.7 PBR 5.3 6.5 2.6 2.4 2.3 Amazon 71.6 51.6 12.7 9.7 24.3 25.0 PSR 4.7 9.1 9.0 7.7 6.9 Tencent 34.4 27.9 6.1 5.0 19.2 19.2 ROE 10.6 15.2 107.0 6.9 7.5 Baidu 27.9 21.7 2.3 2.0 10.0 10.9 ROIC 24.7 52.5 47.2 59.7 65.3 자료: Bloomberg, NH투자증권 리서치본부 자료: Bloomberg, NH투자증권 리서치본부 Historical Key financials (단위: 십억원, %) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 매출액 1,799 2,312 2,758 3,254 4,023 4,678 5,587 6,593 5,304 영업이익 521 524 758 830 1,102 1,179 943 710 1,215 영업이익률(%) 29.0 22.7 27.5 25.5 27.4 25.2 16.9 10.8 22.9 세전이익 549 457 659 823 1,132 1,196 1,112 867 1,634 순이익 544 1,895 452 517 759 770 628 397 845 지배지분순이익 546 1,897 454 519 749 773 649 583 1,002 EBITDA 628 656 902 986 1,265 1,385 1,204 1,208 1,711 CAPEX 280 380 271 121 154 472 535 436 759 Free Cash Flow 315 248 565 731 1,010 468 438 921 688 EPS(원) 2,269 9,085 2,757 3,147 4,546 4,689 3,937 3,538 6,097 BPS(원) 7,881 8,927 10,897 12,890 21,811 28,895 31,795 35,223 44,850 DPS(원) 123 147 156 220 226 289 314 376 402 순차입금 -1,060 -626 -1,008 -1,392 -3,017 -3,186 -2,614 -2,696 -1,166 ROE(%) 57.6 112.7 27.8 26.5 26.2 18.5 13.0 10.6 15.2 ROIC(%) 111.7 49.7 73.7 82.9 164.0 145.3 52.9 24.7 52.5 배당성향(%) 4.9 1.2 5.1 6.2 4.3 5.5 7.1 9.4 5.9 배당수익률(%) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 순차입금 비율(%) -55.7 -42.4 -56.1 -61.3 -73.1 -60.1 -43.9 -41.5 -14.1 주: 2020년은 LINE 사업 제외를 반영한 수치임 자료: NAVER, NH투자증권 리서치본부 2 NAVER www.nhqv.com ESG Index & Event 본 ESG 분석부분은 유료 리서치 서비스 계약을 통해 제공될 예정으로 전체 내용이 공개되지 않음을 알려드립니다. 당사 고객은 홈페이지(www.nhqv.com)에서 본 조사분석자료의 전체 내용을 열람하실 수 있습니다. 3 NAVER www.nhqv.com 낮아진 기대치를 네이버는 1분기 매출액 1.499조원(+29.8% y-y, -0.9% q-q), 영업이익 2,888억원 충족한 1분기 실적 (-1.0% y-y, -10.8% q-q)을 기록해, 영업이익 당사 추정치 2,811억원 및 컨센서 스 2,949억원을 충족하였다. 광고, 커머스, 웹툰, 클라우드 등 주요 사업의 매출 성 장은 양호한 반면, 임직원 대상으로 부여한 스톡옵션 관련 비용이 증가하며 영업이 익은 전년동기대비 감소하였다. 디스플레이광고 매출은 1,830억원(+46.4% y-y, -10.6% q-q)으로 성과형 광고인 스마트채널의 광고 매출이 성장하고 있고, 지난해 상반기 코로나19로 인한 광고 둔 화 영향에 따른 기저효과로 큰 폭으로 성장하였다. 지난해 2.6% 성장에 그친 검색 광고도 1분기 매출액 5,697억원으로 전년동기대비 9.6% 성장하며 커머스 사업 성 장과 검색 광고 개편 효과가 맞물리며 다시 성장세로 돌아섰다. 커머스 매출은 3,244억원(+40.3% y-y, +2.4% q-q)으로 1분기가 온라인 쇼핑 비 수기임에도 불구하고 높은 성장세를 보였으며, 2020년 영업흑자로 전환한 핀테크 사업은 2,095억원(+52.2% y-y, +4.2% q-q)을 기록하였다. 네이버 쇼핑 결제대금 뿐만 아니라, 외부 제휴 사이트의 결제 비중이 지속적으로 성장하고 있어 긍정적이 다. 콘텐츠 매출은 1,308억원(+40.0% y-y, -5.9% q-q)을 기록하였다. 5월 중 왓패드 인수가 마무리되면 하반기 중 연결 기준 실적에 편입될 예정이며 거래대금 및 매출 액 성장이 나타날 것으로 기대한다. 일본도 라인망가의 리뉴얼과 연재형 콘텐츠 확 대로 실적 성장률이 회복 구간에 진입할 것으로 전망한다. 영업이익은 2,888억원으로 영업이익률 19.3%로 부진하였는데 인건비와 마케팅 비 용 증가 때문이다. 네이버는 지난해부터 임직원들에 대한 보상의 일환으로 스톡옵 션을 부여하였는데 2021년에도 111.4만주(4,039억원)를 부여하였고, 올해 7월에는 3년간 1천만원 상당의 자사주를 지급하는 스톡그랜트 프로그램을 도입하기로 결정 하였다. 이로 인한 인건비 증가가 당분간 불가피할 것으로 판단한다. 1분기 중 발생 한 주식보상비용은 709억원이며, 2020년 814억원에서 2021년 2,987억원으로 증 가할 것으로 추정한다. 마케팅 비용은 1,710억원(+86.1% y-y, -6.9% q-q)을 기록 하였다. 당기순이익은 15.3조원을 기록하였는데, LINE의 경영통합이 마무리되면서 네이버 가 보유한 A Holdings의 지분가치가 17.9조원으로 산정되었고 이와 관련된 영업외 수익이 14.9조원이 반영되었으나 이는 현금 유출입이 없는 일회성 수익이며 이를 제외하면 4,100억원 수준이다.
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