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Precious Metal Weekly – 15 January 2009

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Precious Metal Weekly – 15 January 2009 Precious Metals Weekly 15 January 2009 Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach - +49 (0) 61 81 35 50 01 Highlights • Precious metals suffer losses again – Earlier recovery was only temporary, uncertainty about economy, weak oil and strong US-dollar adds pressure. • Gold falls from nearly $ 900 to almost $ 800 – Early gains due to new index adjustment? Physi- cal demand continues – in form of ETFs as well as bars. • Silver highly volatile – However still tending to hang onto gold. Mines report increasing production and higher costs. Apex Silver files for creditor protection. • Platinum temporarily over $ 1,000 – And thereby at a 4 month high. Asian demand driving force. Then again significant losses. Impala withdraws Northam bid. • Palladium spikes over $ 200 – But later books significant losses in light of the international auto- mobile industry misery. • Rhodium falls to $ 1,000 – Two-way interest at this level. Ruthenium weakness continues with practically no buying interest around. Iridium unchanged. Page 2 Precious Metals Weekly Platinum All prices for the period from 2 Januay to 15 January Platinum, at least at the beginning of this Europe new registrations fell by 7.8 per cent PT US$/oz €/oz €/gram reporting period, managed to perform sur- in 2008 – to 14.7 million (from 2007’s almost prisingly well in the current economical cli- 16 million); in December alone West Europe High 1003.00 748.00 24.05 mate. On Wednesday previous week the recorded a minus of almost 20 per cent. metal was at times trading at $ 1,003 an Given this negative dynamic, support for Low 900.00 665.00 21.38 ounce; again in four digits. Traders pointed to platinum metals prices from its most impor- increased demand from the Far East, which tant demand sector is foreseeable going to Latest 920.00 700.00 22.51 was also reflected by an increase in the be missing this year. Shanghai Gold Exchange turnover, as the Despite this we do not expect a complete Daily QXPT= [Line] [Professional] 19/12/2007 - 23/01/2009 (GMT) main cause for this. With the Chinese New Price collapse in the platinum-metals prices; as we USD Year around the corner, the jewellery indus- Ozs have been seeing for some months now, new 2000 try was seen as being behind this demand. production is going to slow down as well. 1800 However things changed during the course of In the past few days there were a series of 1600 this week. Continual bad news from the 1400 announcements from the mining industry: global automobile industry, a significantly Northam, the 4th largest South African pro- 1200 stronger US-dollar, a massively falling oil ducer, said the profit-per-share in the last half 1000 price and consequently falling gold prices year could have almost halved. Higher costs 800 lead to platinum also going down hill again. Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan as well as a capital increase were cited as 2008 This morning the metal was trading at a mere main reasons. $ 907 an ounce in Asia; almost 10 per cent off its last weeks highs. The downward move Impala, the second largest platinum metal was most likely accelerated by the price producer globally, withdrew in the meantime breaking through the important chart support its bid for Northam and its majority share- of $ 930 an ounce. The next strong support is holder Mvelaphanda. Impala said that the at $ 880 an ounce, though $ 900 an ounce three firms could not agree on the “Value mark should be building an important psy- Proposition” for the tie in light of the present chologically barrier. At the other end of the economic environment. trading range testing $ 1,000 an ounce in the Regarding their own production, and contrary next days should not be on the cards any- to their earlier projected increase of 5 per more. cent in 2008/2009, Impala now foresees pro- Medium term it will be critical to see how duction to go down; but for the moment they industrial demand develops. In that respect, could not say by how much. Also for the fi- the recent automobile sales figures from nancial year 2007/2008 Impala already re- China were anything but promising. In De- ported a production minus of 6 per cent. cember the sales figures fell by almost 8 per cent compared to the same period of previ- ous year. For the full year the Chinese Asso- ciation of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) reported an overall plus of 6.7 per cent. In comparison, 2007 growth rate was about 22 per cent. For 2009 CAAM expects sales to rise by about 5 per cent. Considerably worse off are the USA. After registering 13.2 million new cars in 2008 (and 16.1 million in 2007), many analysts expect 2009 US automobile sales figures in the vicinity of 10.5 million. In PD US$/oz €/oz €/gram High 205.00 149.00 4.79 Palladium Low 174.00 131.00 4.21 With no impulses of its own palladium took cling) is likely to fall further. Should the price its cue in the last ten days once again from in the foreseeable future fall to $ 165 an Latest 175.00 134.00 4.31 platinum. It first moved up with its sister ounce, industrial end users should think of metal to $ 204.50 an ounce; its highest since covering (at least) some of their require- Daily QXPD= [Line] [Professional] 19/12/2007 - 23/01/2009 (GMT) middle November. The coupling to platinum ments; e.g. by placing purchase orders at Price USD Ozs was also very much there in the other direc- $ 160 and $ 150 an ounce levels. 500 tion too and with platinum coming off mas- 450 sively, palladium lost ground by this morning 400 to a low of $ 173.50 an ounce. 350 After this weeks disappointing developments 300 and given the dismal economic environment 250 it is highly unlikely that the metal can recon- 200 quer the 200-mark in the near future. On the Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan 2008 other hand potential for further losses is also limited as new production (and also recy- 15 January 2009 Page 3 Daily QRHOD-LON [Line] Rhodium, Ruthenium, Iridium [Professional] 17/12/2007 - 22/01/2009 (GMT) Price USD Ozs At the start of this reporting period rhodium an ounce but with no serious demand back- 8000 came under pressure, however at current ing it; offer is at around $ 80 an ounce. 7000 levels of $ 950 - $ 1,050 an ounce there is Iridium remains unchanged at $ 370 - $ 420 6000 5000 good two way business. As buyers it is pri- an ounce. marily Asian addresses, traders being the 4000 main sellers. 3000 2000 Ruthenium has been cheerless with little or 1000 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan no buying interest. Presently it is bid at $ 40 2008 Gold AU US$/oz €/oz €/gram The last upward move of late December and portant level of $ 800 an ounce, and this is early January, according to analysts, was supported by private investor interest which High 884.00 644.00 20.71 perhaps on the account of an increased though is no longer at record levels, but still weightage of gold in important commodity very much evident. Low 806.00 608.00 19.50 indexes starting 1st January and as such Delivery periods for investment bars vary; Latest 812.00 616.00 19.80 had to be bought up to adjust to this. casted bars (100 g – 1 kilo) are available im- With the start of the New Year this phase mediately, minted ones (1 g – 100 g) still with Daily QXAU= [Line] [Professional] 19/12/2007 - 23/01/2009 (GMT) was over then and the easing oil price as certain delays. Price USD well as a stronger US-dollar again gained Even though the next important chart support Ozs the upper hand again, having a negative 960 level is only at $ 765 an ounce, we do not 920 effect on the price of gold. Also the break of expect the yellow metal to fall down so low in two support chart points - $ 830 and $ 815 880 the short term. The intact popularity of the 840 an ounce – put further pressure on gold as metal with investors should be adequate to this was seen by speculative oriented mar- 800 help stabilise the price at or at least just under 760 ket participants as sell signals. the $ 800 mark. 720 So far the yellow metal has at least man- 680 aged to stay above the psychologically im- JanMarMayJulSepNovJan 2008 Silver In the past few days silver price has by and Silver producers are also not being spared AG US$/oz €/oz €/Kilo€/Kilo large moved with gold and has been trading by the global crisis: Even though the com- between $ 10.30 and $ 11.71 an ounce; a pany had a record production in 2008 (18.7 High 11.71 8.60 276.50276.50 trading range of “only” $ 1.41 an ounce. This million ounces; 9 per cent more than 2007), Low 10.30 7.76 249.50249.50 does not however allow one to draw conclu- Pan American Silver ( PAS) last week gave sions about how severe at times the single a profit warning due to falling revenues. Latest 10.48 7.94 255.30255.30 moves in the reporting period have been. For 2009 the Canadian miner plans to in- Daily QXAG= [Line] [Professional] 19/12/2007 - 23/01/2009 (GMT) Almost every single day in the last two Price crease production even further to 21.5 million USD weeks has seen price-movements of over ounces.
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