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Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Project. Support for Grid Integrated Renewable Energy

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WORLD BANK Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Project. Support for Grid Integrated Renewable Energy Generation LEAST COST RENEWABLE ENERGY MIX FINAL REPORT REF: WB7035-06/19, P143055 November 2020, V1.0 Support for Grid Integrated Renewable Energy Generation (WB7035-06/19) Least cost RE mix - Final Report ABBREVIATIONS AL Albania BAU Business as Usual COD Date of Commissioning DEM Digital Elevation Model ERO Energy Regulatory Office FOR Forced Outage Rate ME Montenegro MK North Macedonia MOR Maintenance Outage Rate NECP National Energy and Climate Plan NPV Net Present Value NREAP National Renewable Energy Action Plan PV Photovoltaic RS Serbia O&M Operation and Maintenance PEMMDB Pan-European Market Modelling Data Base PS Pumped Storage SEE South East Europe SHPP Small Hydropower Plant SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission TPP Thermal Power Plant TYNDP Ten Year Network Development Plan WB World Bank XK Kosovo EXERGIA S.A. – EIHP – Alb-Architect 2 Support for Grid Integrated Renewable Energy Generation (WB7035-06/19) Least cost RE mix - Final Report TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS........................................................................................................................ 2 TABLES ....................................................................................................................................... 5 FIGURES .................................................................................................................................... 8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ 11 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 23 1.1 Project aim and objectives .......................................................................................... 23 1.1.1 Task 1 ................................................................................................................ 23 1.2 Current demand-supply balance of Kosovo ............................................................... 24 1.3 Renewable energy targets .......................................................................................... 27 2 ASSESSMENT OF RE POTENTIAL IN KOSOVO ................................................................ 31 2.1 Solar energy ................................................................................................................. 31 2.2 Wind energy ................................................................................................................. 37 2.3 Hydro energy .............................................................................................................. 50 3 ASSESSMENT OF THE COSTS .......................................................................................... 58 4 ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECASTS ............................................................................... 65 4.1 Assessment of existing demand forecasts ............................................................... 65 4.1.1 Energy Strategy 2017-2026 ............................................................................. 65 4.1.2 Long-Term Energy Balance of the Republic of Kosovo 2017-2026 ............... 65 4.1.3 Transmission Development Plan 2018-2027 .................................................. 66 4.1.4 Generation Adequacy Plan 2019-2028 ........................................................... 66 4.2 Projections of the future electricity demand .............................................................67 5 POWER SYSTEM PLANNING TO DETERMINE THE OPTIMAL RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION FOR KOSOVO’S POWER SYSTEM ................................................................. 70 5.1 Methodological approach ...........................................................................................70 5.2 Input data and assumptions ....................................................................................... 72 5.2.1 General assumptions ....................................................................................... 72 5.2.2 RES-E target ..................................................................................................... 72 5.2.3 Electricity demand ........................................................................................... 73 5.2.4 Generation capacities ...................................................................................... 75 5.2.5 Fuel and CO2 prices ..........................................................................................78 5.2.6 Simplified network model ...............................................................................79 5.2.7 External electricity markets ............................................................................ 82 EXERGIA S.A. – EIHP – Alb-Architect 3 Support for Grid Integrated Renewable Energy Generation (WB7035-06/19) Least cost RE mix - Final Report 5.2.8 Battery energy storage system ..................................................................... 83 5.2.9 Other constraints and assumptions .............................................................. 84 5.3 Scenarios definition .................................................................................................... 86 5.4 Optimization results ................................................................................................... 88 5.4.1 ‘BaU’ scenario ................................................................................................. 88 5.4.2 ‘BaU without TPP Kosova e Re’ scenario ....................................................... 92 5.4.3 ‘Base with TPP Kosova e Re’ scenario (S5) ................................................... 96 5.4.4 ‘High with TPP Kosova e Re’ scenario (S6) ................................................... 99 5.4.5 ‘Base without TPP Kosova e Re’ scenario (S7) ............................................ 103 5.4.6 ‘High without TPP Kosova e Re’ scenario (S8) ............................................ 107 5.4.7 Common insights for all scenarios ................................................................. 110 5.5 Economic costs of analyzed scenarios ...................................................................... 112 5.5.1 Kosovo power system costs .......................................................................... 112 5.5.2 Net present value of costs ............................................................................. 116 5.6 Sensitivity analysis ..................................................................................................... 120 5.6.1 PS HPP Zhur .................................................................................................... 121 5.6.2 Utility-scale PV park ....................................................................................... 123 5.7 Additional analysis in S5 scenario ............................................................................. 128 5.7.1 Assumptions .................................................................................................. 128 5.7.2 Optimization results ...................................................................................... 129 5.7.3 Net present value of costs ............................................................................ 134 6 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................. 137 EXERGIA S.A. – EIHP – Alb-Architect 4 Support for Grid Integrated Renewable Energy Generation (WB7035-06/19) Least cost RE mix - Final Report TABLES TABLE 0-1 FINAL SET OF SCENARIOS FOR ANALYSIS IN PLEXOS .................................................. 17 TABLE 0-2 TOTAL NET PRESENT VALUE OF COSTS (EUR MILLION) ................................................ 20 TABLE 0-3 MAIN ASSUMPTIONS IN ADDITIONAL SCENARIOS BASED ON THE S5 SCENARIO ............... 21 TABLE 1-1 POWER GENERATION CAPACITY IN KOSOVO ................................................................ 25 TABLE 1-2 ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION IN POWER PLANTS, IMPORT AND EXPORT OF ELECTRICITY IN 2019 ................................................................................................................................. 26 TABLE 1-3 ESTIMATION OF THE RES-E POTENTIAL IN KOSOVO, 2009-2020, GWH ....................... 28 TABLE 1-4 ESTIMATED RES POTENTIAL AND REALISED ACHIEVEMENTS ........................................ 29 TABLE 2-1 MONTHLY AND ANNUAL IRRADIATION ON HORIZONTAL PLANE (KWH//M2) ....................... 32 TABLE 2-2 MONTHLY AND ANNUAL IRRADIATION – OPTIMUM ANGLE (KWH//M2) .............................. 33 TABLE 2-3 ESTIMATION OF TECHNICAL POTENTIAL FOR PV ........................................................... 36 TABLE 2-4 AREAS WITH WIND SPEED RANGES .............................................................................. 42 TABLE 2-5 WIND SPEED AND CONSEQUENT PROBABILITY FOR CONSTRUCTING A WINDFARM ........... 44 TABLE 2-6 LAND COVERS AND CONSEQUENT PROBABILITY FOR CONSTRUCTING A WINDFARM ......... 45 TABLE 2-7 DISTRIBUTION AREA (KM2) BASED ON WIND SPEED AND LAND COVER; RED COLOUR REFERS TO BIGGER AREAS AND GREEN TO SMALLER AREAS .............................................................. 46 TABLE 2-8 IDEAL WIND POWER THEORETICAL POTENTIAL (MW) BASED ON WIND SPEED AND LAND COVER; RED COLOUR REFERS TO THE HIGHER INSTALLED CAPACITY AND THE GREEN TO THE LOWER INSTALLED CAPACITY .............................................................................................
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