A SCAN OF IMPACTS ON

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Eva Ligeti, Executive Director, Clean Air Partnership

RESEARCHERS AND AUTHORS: Ireen Wieditz, Researcher, Clean Air Partnership Jennifer Penney, Director of Research, Clean Air Partnership

COLLABORATORS: Ian Burton, Scientist Emeritus, Meteorological Service of Monica Campbell, Manager, Environmental Protection Office, Priscilla Cranley, Consultant, Strategic & Corporate Policy/Healthy City Office, City Manager’s Office Martin Herzog, Senior Corporate Management and Policy Consultant, Strategic & Corporate Policy/Healthy City Office, City Manager’s Office Christopher Morgan, Senior Specialist, Air Quality Improvement, Works and Emergency Services, City of Toronto

OUR THANKS TO THE FOLLOWING, WHO CONTRIBUTED TO THE INFORMATION INCLUDED IN THIS REPORT:

City of Toronto: Dylan Aster, Ted Bowering, Nazzareno Capano, Patrick Chessie, Joe D’Abramo, Shelley Grice, Dean Hart, Jim Kamstra, Warren Leonard, Mary MacDonald, Jonathan P’ng, Chris Ruhig, Elaine Smyer, Vesna Stevanovic-Briatico, Rob Taverner, Richard Ubbens, Jane Welsh, Jane Weninger Clean Air Partnership: Michael Canzi Environment Canada: Chad Shouquan Cheng, David Fay, Andrea Hebb, Grace Koshida, Qian Li, Don MacIver, Abdel Maarouf, Brian Mills Public Health Agency of Canada: Dominique Charron Toronto Hydro: Joyce McLean

We would like to extend special thanks to Joan Klaassen, Environment Canada who provided invaluable information, comments and suggestions to the authors.

Although many people contributed to the preparation of this document, the authors bear sole responsibility for the contents and for any errors or omissions.

© 2006 Clean Air Partnership

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT: Clean Air Partnership 75 Elizabeth Street Toronto, M5G 1P4 Tel. 416-392-6672 [email protected]

This report was made possible with the financial support of the ’s Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program and the Toronto Atmospheric Fund.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

i Foreword iii Executive Summary

1 Introduction

2 Global Climate Trends

4 Canadian Climate Trends

5 Toronto’s Changing Climate

7 Toronto’s Future Climate

10 How are Various Sectors in Toronto Affected?

10 Water and Wastewater 13 Health 19 Energy/ 23 Transportation 27 Buildings 29 Urban Ecosystem 32 Vulnerable Populations 32 Tourism and Recreation 33 Economy

38 Conclusions

41 References FOREWORD

This impacts scan is the first step of a four part project, Adapting to Climate Change in Toronto, undertaken by the Clean Air Partnership (CAP) in collaboration with the City of Toronto. CAP is working with the City to incorporate climate change into program planning and implementation to reduce the vulnerability of the city and its inhabitants to the impacts of climate change. This project will roll out in four phases:

PHASE 1: IMPACTS SCAN This scan outlines the expected impacts of climate change on various sectors in Toronto, highlighting changes that are already underway.

PHASE 2: LEARNING FROM OTHER CITIES This report will review what several other cities are doing to tackle expected climate change impacts, and will identify strategies that appear promising for Toronto. An overview of City activities that already work to reduce Toronto’s vulnerability to climate change will be included.

PHASE 3: DECISION-MAKERS WORKSHOP A workshop with Toronto decision-makers will be held in June 2006 to discuss and prioritize sectors that would benefit from the development and implementation of adaptation strategies.

PHASE 4: ADAPTATION STRATEGIES A menu of adaptation options for two strategic areas will be developed in collaboration with the City of Toronto.

i

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

According to NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies, 2005 was the warmest year on record. This coincided with the most active hurricane season since record keeping began and was the costliest year ever for the insurance industry. Many scientists link the global rise in weather-related disasters to climate change – a phenomenon brought about by the gradual warming of the earth’s surface temperatures. This warming destabilizes weather patterns, increasing the frequency and intensity of heat waves, storms and and leading to floods, blackouts, forest fires and other weather-related disasters.

Toronto is seeing its share of changes. The summer of 2005 was the hottest and smoggiest summer to date, with 37 days over 30°C and 48 smog days. A storm on August 19, 2005 flooded hundreds of basements, washed out a portion of Finch Avenue and has been singled out by the insurance industry as the most expensive natural disaster in Ontario’s history. This type of event is expected to become more frequent in the next 50 years. Toronto’s high density of property, people, and services make the city particularly vulnerable when extreme weather or natural disasters strike.

FINANCIAL BURDEN ON MUNICIPALITIES Extreme weather and natural disasters can place a huge financial burden on municipalities. Costly repairs to infrastructure or clean up efforts will become more common. The August 19, 2005 rainstorm cost Parks & Recreation $12.5 million alone. Urban Forestry Services spent $600,000 on the clean up of fallen trees and Transportation Services spent at least $5 million on the repair of Finch Avenue.

WATER Toronto’s water quality, water supply and wastewater infrastructure are likely to be affected by climate change. Heavy downpours cause combined sewer overflows, damage infrastructure, erode stream and river banks, and flush polluted substances such as oil, lawn , and animal into waterways. Warmer water temperatures in may allow new waterborne pathogens to move northward or existing ones to flourish. Demand for water will increase during summer months, particularly during heat waves as people try to stay cool and watering needs for lawns and gardens increase.

iii HEALTH The health of Toronto residents is already affected by warmer summers and increasing levels of air pollution. An increase in heat will exacerbate air pollution, particularly ground-level ozone, which is the primary ingredient in smog. Each year, an estimated 1,700 people die prematurely due to short- and long-term exposure to polluted air. It is estimated that by 2080, heat-related deaths will triple and air pollution-related deaths will increase by 25%. A warmer climate will also spread vectorborne disease as the northern limit of many disease carriers is controlled by temperature. West Nile virus, for instance, was not present in Toronto in early 2000, but since 2003 there have been 4 deaths and 88 cases reported to the City. Warmer weather is also expected to increase the risk of water- and foodborne diseases.

ENERGY Energy, especially electricity, will be affected in three main areas: generation and production; transmission and distribution; and energy demand. Hydroelectric production will perhaps be the most affected as an expected drop in lake water levels will decrease electrical output. The capacity of nuclear and coal generating stations is also expected to decrease as warmer water temperatures reduce the efficiency of condensers. Transmission lines are at risk from ice storms as seen in the dramatic storm of 1998. Energy demand is expected to increase as summer temperatures soar, putting the entire system under greater strain and leading to brownouts and blackouts.

TRANSPORTATION All forms of mobility are already subject to weather-related service disruptions, which threaten to become more frequent as weather patterns become more erratic and severe. TTC operations are most vulnerable to blackouts, which leaves electricity-dependent trains and streetcars stranded. Road travel is also affected by the loss of power to traffic lights. Weather extremes also damage road and rail infrastructure. Shipping activity at the Port of Toronto will face significant costs if water levels in the Basin drop. While outflow out of Lake Ontario is regulated, lakes further upstream are not, meaning ships will have to reduce their loads to be able to navigate shallower channels. Flights out of Pearson Airport are already afflicted by periodic delays and cancellations, which could become more common as the incidence of extreme weather increases.

iv BUILDINGS Buildings are susceptible to storm damage, particularly during heavy rainfalls that overwhelm stormwater systems, causing sewers to back up and basements to flood. Winds are another concern as a small increase in wind intensity can lead to disproportionate building damage. Milder winters are already proving troublesome by bringing more freeze-thaw cycles, which wear away at building materials.

URBAN ECOSYSTEM Toronto’s natural ecosystem already faces pressure from urban growth, heat stress, and air and water pollution. Climate change will exacerbate these stressors. The urban forest will suffer from the increase in severity and duration of heat waves. The composition of plant and animal species in wetlands will likely change, with native species disappearing and more moving in. Hotter summers will lead to greater surface water evaporation and may lead to significantly lower water levels in the Don, Humber, and Rouge valleys.

SOCIO-ECONOMIC Currently one-quarter of Toronto’s households live below the poverty line and more than 32,000 people depend on shelters. These individuals and households have fewer resources to protect themselves from extreme weather or natural disasters. Recovery from disaster is also more difficult for low-income households that have limited or no insurance coverage or savings.

TOURISM & RECREATION Toronto receives approximately 18.5 million visitors each year, and benefits substantially from the revenue tourism generates. Poorer air quality or the threat of infectious diseases could reduce the number of tourists that visit Toronto. Low lakes levels that result in reduced access to docks and marinas will also impact this sector.

ECONOMY Climate change and extreme weather will have both direct and indirect impacts on economic activity within the city. Blackouts brought on by storms or by excessive demand on the electrical system will disrupt the economy and reduce productivity. An increase in extreme weather will also damage property and infrastructure, and place a significant financial burden on the City

v government. Insurance premiums are expected to rise, increasing the cost of doing business.

Climate change is among the most serious threats facing humanity today. With a high proportion of people, infrastructure, and economic activity, cities in particular are highly vulnerable to extreme weather and natural disasters. Decision-makers in both the public and private realms will need to assess the risks associated with climate change and take appropriate action to better adapt to the changes ahead.

vi INTRODUCTION

Climate change is one of the most serious threats facing humankind. Rapidly mounting scientific evidence has established that climate change is not a theoretical problem but is already underway. Each new study reinforces the urgency of the issue and the need for swift and immediate action. Signs of change are visible worldwide: rising temperatures; melting glaciers; thawing permafrost; expansion in the range of cold-sensitive pests; and the increasing severity of storms are all manifestations of a climate in flux.

Climate change is the result of the earth’s warming, caused largely by human activities that emit carbon dioxide and other heat- trapping gases. The main culprit is the burning of fossil fuels. Coal- fired generating stations, motor vehicles, and buildings heated with oil or all release these gases into the atmosphere. Deforestation, extensive livestock operations, nitrogen fertilizers and urban sprawl also contribute to climate change.

The impacts of climate change are being felt at global, regional, and local levels and are expected to increase in severity as emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise. Even if emissions were to cease tomorrow, our climate would continue to change as greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere for decades or even centuries. THE EXTENT OF THE GREENLAND ICESHEET IN 1992 AND IN 2002. MELTING WAS 10 TIMES FASTER IN 2004 THAN IN 2000. Global climate change is manifested on a local level by more variable Source: Arctic Climate Impact weather patterns and extreme weather events, including hotter Assessment/ Clifford Grabhorn 2004 summers, warmer winters, and intense rainfall and storm events. The negative impacts of these changes reverberate through the physical landscape, and have the potential to overwhelm the capacities of our social, environmental, and economic systems.

Cities such as Toronto are especially vulnerable to extreme weather events given their concentration of people, property, wealth, and aging infrastructure. On August 19, 2005, for instance, Toronto was subjected to an extreme rainfall event that the insurance industry is calling the most expensive natural disaster in Ontario’s history. With the incidence of extreme weather events expected to rise in the 21st century, our need to take stock of and adapt to our changing climate becomes ever more urgent.

1 GLOBAL CLIMATE TRENDS

According to NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies, 2005 was the warmest year on record. The magnitude of warming during the 20th century is the greatest experienced in the past 1,000 years. The rate of warming anticipated for the 21st century is likely to be the most rapid change ever in recorded history. Global surface temperatures have increased about 0.6°C on average since the beginning of the 20th century, with nighttime minimums increasing more than daytime maximums. These changes may seem small, but the average temperatures in the last ice age were only 5°C cooler than they are today.

CHANGES IN CARBON EMISSIONS, CO2 CONCENTRATIONS, AND TEMPERATURE OVER THE LAST 1,000 YEARS.

Source: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 2004

This gradual warming of the earth has far greater implications than simply warmer summers and milder winters. Observed global trends include:

MELTING GLACIERS There has been a widespread retreat of mountain glaciers. The extent of northern hemisphere sea-ice has also decreased 10 to 15% since the

2 1950s and Arctic summer sea-ice thickness has decreased by 40% (Union of Concerned Scientists 2005).

PRECIPITATION CHANGES Rainfall has increased in the mid and high latitudes but decreased in the subtropics and tropics (Union of Concerned Scientists 2005).

SEA LEVEL RISE Global sea levels have risen between 10 to 25 centimetres largely due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and to a lesser extent due to the melting of glaciers (Union of Concerned Scientists 2005).

EXTREME EVENTS Extreme weather events, such as prolonged heat waves and periods of are intensifying (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2001). A recent study has linked the earth’s warming to an expected future increase in the intensity of hurricanes (Knutson and Tuleya 2004).

GLOBAL DISASTERS FROM 1900 TO 2004.

NOTICE HOW HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISASTERS (IE. FLOODS, STORMS) HAVE INCREASED IN COMPARISON TO GEO-PHYSICAL DISASTERS (I.E. EARTHQUAKES).

Source: International Strategy for Disaster Reduction 2005

SLOWING OF THE THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION This ocean “conveyor belt”, which originates in the Gulf of Mexico, brings warm water and weather to northwestern Europe. With glaciers and ice caps melting, flows of freshwater to the North Atlantic Ocean have increased, slowing the thermohaline circulation by 30% from 1957 to 2004. Disruption to this ocean current could result in the cooling of northwestern Europe by several degrees (Union of Concerned Scientists 2005; Bryden et al. 2005).

3 CANADIAN CLIMATE TRENDS

Climate change in Canada is not uniform. Northern regions of the country are feeling the most severe impacts, with warmer temperatures melting permafrost, changing the distribution of plant and animal life, and melting sea-ice. These changes seriously threaten the livelihoods of many northern communities. Canada’s coastal communities, forests, agriculture, and fisheries are also at risk from climate change (Lemmen and Warren 2004). You can see from the map below that the trend of rapid warming in the Arctic and sub- Arctic regions of Canada is expected to continue.

PROJECTED CHANGE IN MEAN SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE (°C) IN CANADA IN 2041-2060 RELATIVE TO 1941-1960. THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE OVER TORONTO IS PROJECTED TO BE 3-3.5°C, BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE GREATER DUE TO THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT.

(This is 1of 2 models on the CCCM website. Both show increased warming. Model: CGCM3/T47; Scenario: SRES A1B)

Source: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling 2005

In southern Canada, warming has been less pronounced but has still led to the following observed changes:

TEMPERATURES Surface temperatures have warmed by 0.5 to 1.5°C in southern Canada during the past century (Meteorological Service of Canada 2005a).

PRECIPITATION Precipitation on average has increased in Canada by about 12% (5 to 35% in southern Canada) during the period 1950-1998 (Meteorological Service of Canada 2005a). Annual snowfall has been significantly decreasing over southern Canada since 1950, although

4 in Ontario during this same period, the trends have not been as clear (Vincent and Mekis 2006).

DROUGHT Despite overall increases in annual precipitation, six widespread and severe droughts occurred over southern Ontario were experienced between 1936 and 1998. The droughts of 1988 and 1998 were both consistent with climate change scenarios for the that predict greater variability in climate patterns (Koshida et al. 1999).

GROWING SEASON The number of growing days - consecutive days when average temperatures are more than 5°C - is increasing. Southern Canada is experiencing fewer extreme low temperatures and longer frost free periods, thereby lengthening the growing season (Meteorological Service of Canada 2005a).

TORONTO’S CHANGING CLIMATE

Since the late 1800s, Toronto has experienced an average temperature increase of 2.7°C. This is much higher than surrounding rural sites due to the urban heat island effect1. Climate change in combination with the heat island, will sustain Toronto’s profound warming trend.

AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURES IN TORONTO HAVE BEEN RISING CONSISTENTLY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN MORE THAN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. THE EXTENT OF WARMING IN TORONTO IS PARTIALLY DUE TO THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT.

Source: Environment Canada 2006a

1 Heat islands develop in cities as naturally vegetated surfaces are replaced with asphalt, concrete, rooftops and other manufactured materials. The artificial materials store much of the sunʹs energy, which is later released as heat.

5

Average annual precipitation has changed relatively little in Toronto since the late 1800s, however, average yearly amounts do not tell the whole story. More precipitation is arriving in heavy rainfall events that can overwhelm stormwater systems and cause flash flooding.

The design storm2 for Toronto’s sewer system is based on the 2-year storm. While developments since the mid-70s are designed to handle a 100-year storm via overland flow, older parts of the city have no surface drainage design and are subject to flooding (Bowering 2006). Despite the 100-year storm drainage capacity in the northern part of the city, the storm on August 19, 2005 in the Yonge and Steeles area flooded numerous roadways. Rainfall of up to 103 mm (4.1 inches) in one hour was recorded. By comparison, brought 53 mm (2.1 inches) in one hour. These types of heavy downpours are expected to become more common under climate change.

AVERAGE ANNUAL PRECIPITATION IN TORONTO HAS NOT SHOWN ANY Toronto Annual Precipitation SIGNIFICANT TREND CHANGES. HOWEVER, TORONTO HAS (1895-2002) RECENTLY EXPERIENCED RAINS MORE INTENSE THAN THOSE DURING 1400 HURRICAN HAZEL OVER SHORT DURATIONS (1 HOUR). HOW WILL THE CITY FARE IF SUCH RAINFALL 1200 EVENTS BECOME THE NORM?

Source: Environment Canada 2006b 1000

800 Pr eci pi t at i on ( mm) 600 1895 1915 1935 1955 1975 1995 Year

2 A design storm is a rainfall event of specified size and expected return frequency which is used to calculate runoff volume. Decisions about how large to make storm sewers are based on the volume of water that would have to be drained during a design storm.

6 TORONTO’S FUTURE CLIMATE

HOTTER SUMMERS/MILDER WINTERS Summers in Toronto are heating up and getting more smoggy. The summer of 2005 began with the warmest June on record, with the warmth continuing into July, August and September. There were 37 days with maxiumum temperatures greater than 30°C compared to an average of 13 (1971-2000 normal) most years. Humidex values soared, reaching 35 more than 44 times, and a record number of 48 smog days occurred. As shown in the graph below, this trend of oppressive summer heat is expected to continue and increase in severity.

THE NUMBER OF HOT DAYS IN Impact of Climate Change on Number of Hot Days in Toronto TORONTO ARE ON THE RISE AND (Source: Environment Canada, Science & Impacts of Climate Change: Presentation Graphics , WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. 2002)

60 Source: Environment Canada, Science & Impacts of Climate Change 2002 50 Days with temperature above 30 degrees 40

Days with temperature 30 above 32 degrees Days

20 Days with temperature above 35 degrees

10

0 1961-90 2020s 2050s 2080s

MORE FREQUENT AND INTENSE PRECIPITATION Climate models provide less certainty about future precipitation changes than about temperature change. Canadian climate scientists anticipate average annual precipitation to increase anywhere between 0.5% and 14% in southern Ontario (Meteorological Service of Canada 2005a). However, climate scientists do expect that more precipitation will occur in heavy rain or snowfalls. Warmer air is able to hold more moisture, one of the conditions needed to increase the probability of intense rain events, like the August 19, 2005 storm mentioned earlier, a downpour in North Toronto of greater magnitude than is expected once in every 100 years. The graph below

7 shows how a rainfall event that occurs once every 40 years, may occur once every 20 years by 2090. This is in keeping with the estimate by Kharin and Zwiers (2004) that the “probability of precipitation events that are considered extreme in the year 2000 is increased by a factor of 2 by the end of the 21st century.”

THE CANADIAN CLIMATE MODEL PROJECTS THAT THE INTENSITY OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS MAY INCREASE BY AN AVERAGE 10 MM ACROSS CANADA.

Source: Environment Canada 2005

MORE EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS As the earth’s temperature rises, so does the amount of energy driving weather systems. While the International Panel on Climate Change (2001) states that there is insufficient data to assess how regional extremes will change, they do say it is very likely we will see an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, and freezing rain events. A study recently completed by Environment Canada, suggests an increased risk of ice storms in Toronto in the future (Cheng 2006). The graph below illustrates how weather-related disasters such as storms, wind, freezing rain etc., have increased in Canada over the past 100 years, while the number of geophysical disasters (earthquakes and landslides) has remained fairly constant. These changes are consistent with the projections of climate models.

8 NATURAL DISASTERS IN CANADA 1900-2000

18 NATURAL DISASTERS IN 16 CANADA 1900-2002

14 WEATHER-RELATED NATURAL DISASTERS (I.E. FLOODING, STORMS) ARE ON THE RISE, 12 WHILE GEOPHYSICAL DIASTERS (I.E. EARTHQUAKES) 10 REMAIN CONSTANT

Source: Dore 2003 NUMBER 8

6

4

2

0

0 9 8 7 6 5 8 4 7 6 5 4 3 0 06 0 15 1 24 2 33 3 4 4 5 5 63 6 72 7 81 8 90 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 19 1903 1 19 1912 1 1 1921 1 1 1930 1 1 1939 1942 1 19 1951 1 19 1960 1 19 1969 1 1 1978 1 19 1987 1 1 1996 1999 YEAR

GEOPHYSICAL DISASTER HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISASTER

WATER LEVEL DROP IN THE GREAT LAKES BASIN Warmer air temperatures increase surface water evaporation, decrease surface runoff, reduce groundwater recharge, decrease stream flow, and reduce ice cover formation (Croley 2003; International Joint Commission 2003). Consequently, as climate change proceeds, lake water levels are expected to drop throughout the Great Lakes Basin. Climate models project that Lake Ontario water levels could drop 8 to 47 cm (approximately 3 to 21 inches) by 2050 (Mortsch et al. 2006). The Ontario drought of 1998/99 gave us a taste of what is likely to come. During this drought, water levels decreased on average by 100 cm in Lakes Michigan, Huron and Erie, the lowest levels in 30 years (Bruce et al. 2000). The drop was not as pronounced in Lakes Ontario and Superior because water levels are regulated. The 1998/99 drought was also notable for the speed with which lake water levels dropped and it was also the largest single- year drop in over 150 years of record keeping. The primary driver for the decline in lake levels was the record high air temperatures of 1998, rather than low levels of precipitation (Assel et al. 2004). The graph above demonstrates the water level response of Lake Ontario to four different climate change scenarios. It is interesting to note that each future climate scenario predicts that water levels will drop.

9

WATER LEVEL SCENARIOS FOR LAKE 76.0 ONTARIO COMPARED TO THE HISTORICAL MAXIMUM, MINIMUM, AND MEAN. THE WARM & DRY CLIMATE SCENARIO (RED LINE) 75.5 RESULTS IN THE GREATEST DROP (47

CM).

Source: Mortsch et al. 2006 75.0

BASIS OF COMPARISON MEAN

Water Level (m, asl) (m, Level Water 74.5 MAXIMUM MINIMUM CLIMATE CHANGE 74.0 NOT AS WARM&WET

NOT AS WARM&DRY 73.5 WARM&WET JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC WARM&DRY

HOW ARE VARIOUS SECTORS IN TORONTO AFFECTED?

Toronto’s infrastructure systems – water supply, transportation of people and goods, health services and energy supply – are essential to the health and safety of its residents. Because these systems are so critical to the city, they are also points of vulnerability to climate change. Interruption of these services by natural disasters and inclement weather not only disrupts business, social activities and strains resources, it can also threaten lives. Like other cities, Toronto’s high density of buildings and people can increase the impact of natural disasters. And with climate change expected to increase the severity and frequency of extreme weather events, many of Toronto’s critical services are at risk.

WATER AND WASTEWATER

Climate change is likely to affect water quality, water supply, and wastewater infrastructure in Toronto. Intense rainfall events and

10 other storms, more frequent and intense drought as well as warmer summers and milder winters are expected to impact these areas.

WATER QUALITY Water quality is already negatively affected by urbanization, population growth, industrial discharges and agricultural runoff. Intense rainfall events aggravate water quality problems. Heavy rainfalls wash pollutants such as animal and bird droppings, heavy metals, oil and grease from parking lots, agricultural waste and chemicals into storm sewers which discharge stormwater into the Don and Humber Rivers, Lake Ontario and other receiving waters. Intense rainfall also contributes to the erosion of stream and AUGUST STORM BLASTS SOUTHERN riverbanks, washing soil into streams and causing water turbidity ONTARIO (Watt et al. 2003). Dozens of thunderstorms racked Southern Ontario on August 19, Warmer summers and winters will bring about an increase in lake spawning two F2 tornadoes with gusts reaching 250 km/h. The water temperature, which provides more favourable conditions for twisters wreaked havoc on the landscape, uprooting trees and the growth of bacteria and algae. Ships import many foreign turning over . At one farm organisms into the Great Lakes that normally struggle to survive the winds drove a ballpoint pen 7 cm deep into a tree, splitting Canadian winters. A greater number of these organisms may be able the trunk. to overwinter or survive long enough to become a nuisance as the The storm brought heavy rains, temperature of the Great Lakes increases (Maarouf 1999). Warmer quarter- to golf ball-sized hail, water temperatures already contribute to an increase in algae, which straight-line winds, and flash flooding. More than 1,400 leaves drinking water with a bad taste and odour. Toronto lightning strikes per minute were experienced significant episodes in 1994, 1996, 1998, and 1999 recorded at its height, and as much as 103 mm of rain fell in (Rudnickas 2006) with noticeable taste and odour issues in 2003 and one hour. 2004 as well (City of Toronto 2003a; 2004). These types of episodes, Source: Meteorological Service along with an increase in bacterial growth, are expected to become of Canada 2005b more common with climate change and will lead to the need for increased chemical treatment (Moraru et al. 1999).

Higher water temperatures result in lower oxygen levels, which in turn increases the mobilization of nutrients and contaminants such as phosphorus and mercury from lake-bed sediments. Other contaminants, such as heavy metals are also likely to increase in concentration as oxygen levels go down. Oxygen binds these elements to form insoluble compounds that sink to the lakebed, so lower oxygen levels will leave more heavy metals available for uptake by aquatic organisms (Kling et al. 2003; Croley 2003).

Water quality in Lake Ontario may also be compromised when lower water levels require the dredging of navigation routes. Dredging has the potential to re-suspend polluted sediment such as mercury, PCBs

11 and heavy metals from past industrial activities (Quinn 2002; Carter 2000).

In areas of the city that have combined sanitary and storm sewers, heavy downpours can overwhelm sewage treatment systems, resulting in sewage bypass of certain steps in the treatment process. This in combination with combined sewer overflows (ranging from 50 small to 1-2 large per year) leads to the contamination of Toronto’s beaches.

WATER SUPPLY Toronto gets its water from Lake Ontario, with intake pipes located 2 to 3 kilometres from shore, 15 metres below the surface. Each spring Lake Ontario is dammed to keep water levels fairly constant. Staff at estimate that it would take a drop of 10 to 12 metres in the water level for water supply operations to be affected (Moraru et al. 1999). Nonetheless, during a summer drought in 1988, demand was such that northern Metro Toronto experienced difficulties in sustaining adequate water pressure and refilling reservoirs due to extreme heat (Koshida et al. 1999). Problems such as these are likely to be repeated as summers get hotter, and possibly drier.

When summer temperatures soar, demand for water increases as people use water to stay cool and watering needs for gardens, parks and lawns increase. With Toronto’s population projected to increase to 3.1 million by 2031 (Ontario Ministry of Finance 2005) and heat waves expected to increase in frequency and duration, demand for water will increase.

Many communities around Toronto that depend on ground and river BEATING THE HEAT WHEN SUMMER water may find their water supplies diminishing in a warmer climate TEMPERATURES SOAR. (Kreutzwiser et al. 2003). This could lead to demands for water

Source: diversions or intra-basin transfers, putting more pressure on www.sarahjanesemrad.com Toronto’s water supply (Koshida et al. 2005). With competition for

water from the Great Lakes increasing, and concerns over use and consumption rising, it should not be assumed that past reliability of water translates into future security (International Joint Commission 2000).

WASTEWATER INFRASTRUCTURE The City of Toronto maintains 487 kilometers of massive trunk mains, 9,977 kilometers of local sewers, and 463,300 sewer connections. It also operates 45 pumping stations and five storage

12 and detention tanks. While climate change is expected to bring about heavy rains and floods that could overwhelm operations from time to time, it could also damage sewer infrastructure leading to costly repairs and environmental damage. Currently 20% of Toronto’s sewer system is older than 80 years (D’Andrea 2005) – this aging infrastructure will be at particular risk. The August 19, 2005 storm, caused extremely high flows in Highland Creek resulting in severe erosion of the stream bank. This led to the collapse of a trunk sanitary sewer and raw sewage being spilled into the creek. Both the REPLACING THE DAMAGED TRUNK Humber and Highland Creek wastewater treatment plants sustained SEWER IN HIGHLAND CREEK. flooding damage. At the Highland Creek plant 30% of electrical Source: Snodgrass 2005 equipment was damaged necessitating replacement of pump motors, electric panels, instrumentation and more. Repairs to the trunk sewer and treatment plant totaled over $1 million (City of Toronto 2006).

HEALTH

Changes in weather patterns and their effects on our natural and built environments can have profound impacts on our health and EUROPEAN HEATWAVE KILLS well-being. Effects on our health can be direct or indirect. Illness, 35,000 IN 2003 injuries or deaths can result directly from heat waves or tornados, for The heat wave that hit Europe example. Indirect effects might include diseases that are spread as a in 2003 began in June and result of changes to ecological or social systems (Clarke 2005). lasted until mid-August. Temperatures were 20 to 30% higher than normal, reaching The health impacts of climate change could be substantial in urban extreme maximums of 35 to areas already subject to heat stress and poor air quality. Urban areas 45°C. also have a high concentration of marginalized people, who often do The fatalities were reported as not have access to the resources needed to protect themselves from follows: the elements. France 14,802 Germany 7,000 DIRECT EFFECTS Spain 4,200 Italy 4,000 UK 2,045 HEAT WAVES: PREMATURE DEATHS, ILLNESS, AND VIOLENCE Netherlands 1,400 Climate change is projected to bring hotter summers to Toronto. Portugal 1,300 Adding to the urban heat island effect, this will result in more Belgium 150 frequent and more intense heat waves, subjecting Toronto residents Source: De Bono et al. 2004 to a variety of health risks. The graph below demonstrates the high number of heat alerts in Toronto in 2005 compared to the previous four years.

13 THIS GRAPH DEMONSTRATES THE HIGH Heat Alerts 2001-05 NUMBER OF HEAT ALERTS DURING THE SUMMER OF 2005. THERE WERE 37 DAYS WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER 30

30°C. NORMALLY THERE ARE ONLY 25 18 ABOUT 13 EACH SUMMER. 20 Extreme heat alert 15 Source: Toronto Public Health 2005a 2 Heat alert 10 3 14 5 3 8

Number of Days of Number 6 3 2 0 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year

Exposure to extreme heat can result in dehydration, heatstroke, heat cramps, heat exhaustion and fainting in healthy populations (Carty et al. 2004). It can also worsen existing medical conditions such as cardiovascular illness, diabetes, and respiratory disease (Clarke 2005).

Hot summer temperatures have also been linked to increased violence and homicide. Researchers in Montreal have established that the crime rate increases as daily temperature rises (Anderson 2001).

Certain sectors of the population are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat. Low-income persons, for instance, may be living in poor housing and are less able to afford air conditioning. The elderly are also at heightened risk as their bodies have more difficulty thermo-regulating and they may lack access to air conditioning or a means of getting to a cooler location (Kinney et al. in Press). The vulnerability of the elderly was demonstrated in France during the heat wave of 2003, where 70% of the 14,802 deaths occurred in people over 75 years of age (Pirard et al. 2005). In Toronto, the percentage of individuals over 65 years of age is projected to rise from 13% in 2006 to 19% in 2031 (Ontario Ministry of Finance 2005) and a quarter of Toronto’s population is considered low-income (City of Toronto 2006). This means a significant portion of Toronto’s population is becoming more vulnerable to climate change.

A study released by Toronto Public Health in 2005 provided insight into the toll future summers in Toronto will have on population health. According to the report, heat-related mortality is projected to double by 2050, and triple by 2080 (from 120 to 360 deaths per year)

14 if current air pollution emissions remain constant (Toronto Public Health 2005b).

Cold-related deaths, on the other hand, are expected to decrease due to milder winter temperatures. It is estimated that by 2080, winter deaths in Toronto will have decreased from 105 to 35 per year (Toronto Public Health 2005b).

EXTREME WEATHER: TRAUMATIC INJURIES AND STRESS As anomalous weather increases in severity, so will the injuries and deaths associated with their occurrence. The 1998 ice storm in eastern Ontario, for instance, caused the death of 28 people and injuries to a further 945 (Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada 2005).

Severe weather and natural disasters also result in psychological stress (Hutton 2005). In a survey of survivors, David et al. (1996) found that 36% were suffering from post traumatic stress disorder. A study of communities affected by the 1997 Red River flood in , reported that 70% of respondents3 experienced difficulty in coping with life, problems sleeping, high stress and depression (Morris-Oswald and Simonovic 1997).

INDIRECT EFFECTS

AIR POLLUTION: RESPIRATORY ILLNESS AND PREMATURE DEATH Air pollution is already a serious problem in Toronto. Each year an estimated 1,700 people die prematurely from acute and chronic exposure to polluted air and 6,000 more are hospitalized (Toronto Public Health 2004). Climate change increases air pollution levels in several ways. Hotter summers and prolonged heat waves mean that more people turn to air conditioning for comfort, which increases energy consumption and releases more pollutants from electricity generation. Higher air temperatures speed up the chemical reaction between nitrogen oxides (NOX) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to form ground-level ozone (O3), which is the primary ingredient in smog4 (Nugent 2004)5. Numerous studies link

3 Fifty-four interviews were conducted in urban, suburban, rural and farming communities to determine the social impacts of the flood on households. 4 Smog is a mixture of various air pollutants, which occurs as a result of chemical reactions in heat and sunlight. Components of smog include particulate matter (PM), ground-level ozone (O3), nitrogen oxides (NOX), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), sulphur dioxide (SO2), and carbon monoxide (CO). It has many adverse impacts on our health. 5 Increased use of renewable energy sources would combat this effect.

15 short-term ozone exposure to an increased risk of death (Bell et al. 2005; Levy et al. 2005; Ito et al. 2005; Bates 2005; Goodman 2005).

Air pollution contributes to reduced lung function, acute and chronic bronchitis and asthma attacks (Tager et al. 2005; Gauderman 2004; Triche et al. 2005). Air pollution has also been linked to lung cancer, heart arrhythmias, heart attacks, strokes, and high blood pressure (Rich et al. 2006; Ruidavets et al. 2005; Toronto Public Health 2004).

High levels of air pollution also increase disability days6 (Stieb et al. 2002), emergency room visits, and hospitalization for cardiac and respiratory disease. The Ontario Medical Association (2005) estimated that in Ontario, 17,000 hospital admissions and 60,000 emergency room visits were attributable to air pollution in 2005 alone. In 2026, these numbers are expected to increase to 25,000 and 88,000 respectively.

People with asthma are particularly vulnerable to air pollution as it can aggravate the condition enough to require hospitalization. Rates of asthma in Ontario have been increasing. In 1983, 2.5% of children under the age of 14 suffered from asthma – in 1995 this number had increased to 11.2% (Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care 2000).

Deaths from exposure to air pollution in Toronto are expected to increase with the onset of hotter summers. Because heat exacerbates air pollution, pollution-related deaths in Toronto are projected to increase 20% by 2050, and 25% by 2080 (from 822 to 1070 per year in COPING WITH ASTHMA. 2080). This will bring the projected estimate of net number of deaths from air pollution and extreme hot and cold weather in Toronto to Source: www.aklung.org/asthma 1,465 per year in 2080 (Toronto Public Health 2005b).

ELEVATED CO2: INCREASE IN ALLERGIES AND ASTHMA An increase in atmospheric CO2 has been linked to an increase in plant pollen and fungi. Ragweed grown in an environment with double the CO2 has been shown to produce 60% more pollen. Elevated CO2 also stimulates the growth of certain soil fungi and encourages trees such as maple, birch and poplar to produce more pollen (Epstein and Mills 2005; Epstein and Rogers 2004; Greifenhagen and Noland 2003).

6 Disability days are defined as days spent in bed and days where usual activities are reduced.

16 WARMER CLIMATE: SPREAD OF VECTOR-BORNE DISEASE As climate zones shift northward under a changing climate, more favourable conditions are created for vector-borne diseases in new areas. As winters become warmer, insect vectors will have higher rates of survival (Greifenhagen and Noland 2003). A concern for Toronto and other regions of southern Ontario is the spread of . The black-legged tick, which carries the disease, is already present in isolated pockets in natural areas of Toronto (brought in by migratory birds). An established tick population in the Don or Humber Valley would put a large number of people at risk (Charron 2005).

THE RANGE OF THE BLACK-LEGGED TICK IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH CLIMATE CHANGE

Source: Ogden et al. 2005

West Nile Virus in Ontario in 2000: Density of Infected Dead Birds

The black-legged tick is also the vector for human granulocytic ehrlichiosis and Rocky Mountain spotted fever, both of which have been detected in southern Ontario and could become a greater risk as the range of the tick expands northward (Charron et al. 2003). West Nile Virus in Ontario in 2004: Density of Infected Dead Birds West Nile virus is another disease of concern. The bird-mosquito cycle of West Nile virus is driven by summer heat waves, warm winters, and spring droughts (the mosquitoes thrive in shallow pools in city drains during droughts). The first human fatality due to West Nile in Ontario occurred in 2002 (Chiotti et al. 2002). However, the rapid expansion of West Nile has resulted in 88 cases and 4 deaths in Toronto since 2003 (Toronto Public Health 2005c). The graphs to the left demonstrate how quickly the virus has spread among birds.

THE MAPS ABOVE SHOW HOW Other infectious diseases with the possibility of spreading include QUICKLY WEST NILE VIRUS HAS SPREAD AMONGST BIRDS IN ONTARIO. malaria, dengue fever, and the hantavirus (Chiotti et al. 2002), eastern equine encephalitis, and St. Louis encephalitis (Charron et al. 2003). Source: Fenech and Chiotti (2004)

17 WARM WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL: WATER- AND FOOD-BORNE ILLNESS Warmer weather and intense rainfall have both been linked to the increased risk of disease outbreak (Charron and Sockett 2005; Thomas et al. 2006). More than half of waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States between 1948 and 1994 were preceded by extreme precipitation either during the month of or the month previous to the outbreak (Curriero et al. 2001). The Walkerton E. coli outbreak, during which hundreds of people became ill and several died, was preceded by a significant accumulation of rainfall over a few days (Auld et al. 2004). The graph below illustrates the increased risk of disease outbreak associated with heavy rainfall.

AS THE INTENSITY OF RAINFALL INCREASES, SO DOES THE RISK OF DISEASE OUTBREAK.

Source: Thomas et al. 2006

Foodborne illness typically peaks in the summer when warm temperatures promote pathogen growth in food. A recent Canadian study that examined the relationship between temperature and foodborne disease revealed that the number of outbreaks increased as ambient air temperatures rose (Fleury et al. 2006). Other studies have linked foodborne illness to higher temperatures that occurred two to five weeks earlier, which suggests that food contamination could occur at any point in the food chain (D’Souza et al. 2004; Bentham and Langford 2001). With hotter summers already upon us, we can expect to see a rise in the incidence of food poisoning.

18 ENERGY/ELECTRICITY

Like other cities, Toronto is increasingly dependent on a reliable and uninterrupted supply of electricity. Current methods of producing and distributing energy are already vulnerable to heat waves and severe storms. Climate change will place even greater strain on our energy system by altering demand patterns (particularly peak demand in the summer) and threatening distribution networks. The impacts of climate change on the energy sector can be grouped into three main areas: generation and production; transmission and distribution, and energy demand. YONGE STREET DURING THE AUGUST 2003 BLACKOUT

GENERATION AND PRODUCTION Source: Javanrouh 2006 The generating capacity of hydro, nuclear and coal plants will all be affected by climate change. With water levels in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Basin projected to drop, hydroelectric generation capacity will be reduced. The potential for this problem was illustrated in 1998 – the hottest year on record prior to 2005 – when reported a 12% decrease in hydroelectric generating capacity due to low water levels (Ontario Power Generation 2000).

In a recent study, the worst case scenario for the 2050s has estimated that hydro generation capacity could be decreased by as much as 54%, resulting in a loss of $530 million to Great Lakes hydro- electricity producers (Buttle et al. 2004). In 1964, low water levels in the Great Lakes resulted in hydroelectric power output reductions of 25% and 18% respectively from Ontario Hydro installations at Niagara Falls and Cornwall (Smith et. al. 1998). When Ontario’s hydro production is reduced, electricity from coal-fired generating stations is imported from the United States. This increases emissions in a potentially vicious cycle. In 1964 Ontario Hydro needed 1.4 million tons of coal to compensate for the loss of hydropower at a cost of $82.5 million (1994 value) (Smith et. al. 1998).

Nuclear and coal generated electricity production are likely to be adversely affected by warmer water temperatures, which reduce the efficiency of condensers. Warmer ambient air temperatures are also expected to affect the efficiency of draft fans. This could lead to a loss of 1 to 3% in production capacity (Chiotti 2001; Power 1997; Mirza 2004).

19 The generation of power from alternative sources could also be impacted, although such impacts are not well documented. Wind turbines are at risk from extreme weather events such as ice storms and high winds (MacIver 2005; UKCIP 2003). could be affected by changes in cloud cover, although because it is still unclear exactly how cloud cover will change, further study is warranted.

TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION The vulnerability of the electricity grid to extreme weather was demonstrated during the January 1998 ice storm, which left 1.5 million people in eastern Ontario without power (Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada 2005). Although not as well publicized, the distribution of natural gas was also affected by this event as pumping equipment is powered by electricity (Chiotti 2001). Natural gas transport was also impacted by the August 19 storm in Toronto, where the collapse of a section of Finch Avenue destroyed natural gas pipe lines and other infrastructure. Higher temperatures can reduce the efficiency of transmission lines by 3 to 5%, and in TRANSMISSION TOWERS ARE TOPPLED BY A TORNADO. DISTRIBUTION TOWERS combination with increased demand can cause sagging transmission AND LINES CAN ALSO BE DAMAGED BY lines, transformer failure and underground distribution systems to FALLING TREES AND BRANCHES. overheat (Chiotti 2001; Colombo et al. 1999). Ontario power lines are Source: www.photo.accuweather.com particularly vulnerable to tornadoes as the lines run north-south,

while tornadoes tend to run east-west. Damage to towers and poles from extreme weather between 1988 and 1998 cost Ontario Hydro $11.62 million (Etkin et. al. 2001). This could increase with climate change.

ENERGY DEMAND Urban growth and intensification and an increasing reliance on electronics and electrically powered appliances contribute to Toronto’s increasing energy demand and put considerable pressure on the City’s electrical distribution system.

These pressures are exacerbated in hot weather when electricity demand soars for air conditioning. The graph below demonstrates how electricity use drops as mean daily air temperatures rise - until the temperatures become uncomfortably hot – at which point electricity use climbs again as demand for air conditioning increases.

20

ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN ONTARIO DECREASES AS MEAN DAILY TEMPERATURES RISE UNTIL THE POINT AT WHICH AIR CONDITIONERS KICK IN, WHICH INCREASES ELECTRICITY DEMANDS AGAIN (BASED ON DATA FROM 1994-2000)

Source: Liu 2003

Mean DailyTemperature Temperature (°C) (°C)

As climate change progresses, weather variability may also make energy demand forecasting and planning more difficult. The warm fall weather experienced in the city over the past few years, for instance, has required more energy for air conditioning than expected.

The graph to the right shows how peak hourly summer demand in Ontario has risen from 1994 through 2002. Prolonged heat waves are leading to increased use of air conditioners that can overwhelm the capacity of the electricity system and lead to neighbourhood or city- wide blackouts. Air conditioning discharges hot air outside, contributing to the urban heat island effect and furthering the need for cooling – a vicious cycle that makes the electrical system highly vulnerable. Hot weather and higher air conditioning demands contributed to the transboundary blackout in August 2003, shutting down some city operations for nearly 3 days (US-Canada Power System Outage Task Force 2004). This event put vulnerable persons such as the elderly, young mothers and children in shelters, and MAXIMUM HOURLY PEAK DEMAND persons in palliative care units at greater risk (Smyer 2006). DURING THE SUMMER (1994-2002)

Source: Liu 2003 The graph below illustrates how the monthly mean electricity demand is projected to increase in Ontario over the next 75 years. It also demonstrates how electricity use will increase in the summer and decline in the winter. Electricity demand in Ontario shows a

21 seasonal cycle reaching a minimum in spring and fall as mean daily temperatures decrease. Winter and summer demand is driven by demand for heating and cooling respectively. Monthly electricity demand is highest during the winter, but under climate change the maximum demand for any month will shift to the summer.

x 104

INCREASE IN MONTHLY MEAN 2080 ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN ONTARIO UNDER ONE CLIMATE WARMING SCENARIO. ELECTRICITY DEMAND , WHICH SHOWS A SEASONAL CYLCE, WILL SHIFT FROM A WINTER PEAK TO A SUMMER PEAK. THE BASE YEAR (CURRENT) REFERS TO THE MEAN TEMPERATURE FROM 1994 TO 2000.

Source: Liu 2003

CURRENT

The increase in energy demand during the summer may be slightly offset by a decrease in demand over the winter due to milder temperatures, although heating and cooling are provided mainly by different energy delivery systems. Annual heating degree days7 have decreased in Ontario between 1953 and 2003 as shown in the graph below. The least number of heating degree days occurred in 1998, the warmest year on record during the course of the study (Klaassen 2003).

7 Heating Degree Days (HDD) are a measure of the amount of heat energy which is required to maintain a residence or building at a comfortable temperature of approximately 18°C. The HDD for a particular day is computed as the difference between 18°C and the daily mean outdoor air temperature, when the outdoor temperature is less than 18°C.

22 HEATING DEGREE DAYS IN TORONTO ARE DECREASING. AS WINTER TEMPERATURES WARM IN A CHANGING CLIMATE, THIS TREND TOWARDS LOWER HEATING DEGREE DAYS IS PROJECTED TO CONTINUE. THIS MEANS THAT LESS ENERGY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR HEATING. THESE SAVINGS, HOWEVER, WILL BE OFFSET BY THE INCREASED DEMAND FOR COOLING IN SUMMER MONTHS.

Source: Klaassen 2003

While a decrease in heating degree days means that less energy is used for heating in the winter, it should be noted that a 1°C increase in summer temperature has a much greater effect on energy use (4 to 5 times) than a 1°C drop in temperature in the winter (Chiotti 2001).

TRANSPORTATION

Weather and climate change will affect transportation infrastructure and the mobility of people and goods. Infrastructure such as roads, airport runways, railways, shipping terminals, canals and bridges may require repairs or premature replacement due to extreme weather. All forms of transportation are subject to weather-related service disruptions, most commonly in the winter.

In Canada, weather contributes to approximately 10 train derailments, 10 to 15 aircraft accidents, over 100 shipping accidents DAMAGE TO MILITARY TRAIL AT and tens of thousands of road collisions every year (Mills and ELLESMERE ROAD AFTER THE AUGUST 19, Andrey 2002). With extreme weather events expected to increase, 2005 STORM. these numbers could drastically rise. Source: Snodgrass 2005

23 PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION OPERATIONS Power outages brought on by peak energy demand will halt the operations of subways, streetcars, and trains, stranding passengers as was demonstrated by the blackout in the summer of 2003. These problems are not limited to the TTC. GO trains were also halted by computer failures during the blackout. The TTC and GO transit are also affected by extreme weather, mostly in the winter when heavy snowfalls or freezing rain hampers rail, bus and streetcar service. Overhead streetcar wires are prone to damage from wind and ice storms. Tracks can buckle in extreme heat. This is thought to be a contributing factor in an Amtrak derailment near Washington that TTC STREETCAR STRANDED DURING injured 101 people in July 2002 (Mills and Andrey 2002). THE AUGUST 2003 BLACKOUT.

Source: www.wikipedia.org ROAD TRAVEL In addition to impacts on public transit, an increase in extreme weather events will disrupt the movement of goods and people by road. Extreme weather puts people at risk from traffic accidents and also impacts business, especially industries that depend on just-in- time delivery. The growing number of vehicles on the road further increases the risk of weather-related accident and injury. In 1989 there were approximately 5.75 million vehicles registered in Ontario – by 2005 there were almost 9.5 million (Kishan et al. 2005: Statistics Canada 2005).

Roadways are vulnerable to extremes of intense heat, which accelerates rutting and to freeze-thaw cycles which result in more potholes (Mills and Andrey 2002; Transport Canada 2003). Low-lying VEHICLES STRANDED DURING THE roadways, such as the Don Valley Parkway are at risk of flooding AUGUST 19, 2005 STORM IN NORTH TORONTO. from intense rainfall events. Road wash outs – like the one which occurred on Finch Avenue as a result of intense rainfall on August Source: www.ctvnews.ca 19, 2005 – are another concern. Toronto has 34 culverts and 70 bridges that may be vulnerable.

Power outages that shut down traffic and street lights can also disrupt road travel. Toronto has approximately 1,990 traffic lights that can be affected during blackouts. The blackout in August 2003 not only caused chaos on Toronto’s streets, but resulted in gridlock on the Highway 407 toll road when larger numbers of motorists entered the roadway hoping to get a free ride (Wikipedia 2005).

24 SHIPPING Lower water levels in the Great Lakes Basin will affect operations at the Port of Toronto. While the outflow of Lakes Ontario and Superior are regulated, flows out of Lakes Michigan, Huron and Erie are not, rendering these lakes more susceptible to changes in water levels. With Lake Ontario located at the end of the series of lakes, low water levels in the unregulated water bodies may prevent ships and cargo from reaching the Port of Toronto. This would add to the issues of growing competition, declining tonnage and aging infrastructure already challenging the Great Lakes shipping industry and Toronto’s port operations.

LOW WATER LEVELS IN THE UNREGULATED LAKES OF MICHIGAN, HURON, AND ERIE WILL AFFECT SHIPPING OPERATIONS AT THE PORT OF TORONTO

Source: The St. Lawrence Seaway Management Corporation 2003

The expected drop in water levels will lead to reduced drafts8 in shipping channels, extended waits at docks, and increased costs for dredging. Reduced drafts mean that more trips will be required to deliver the same amount of cargo, even with a longer ice-free season (Mills and Andrey 2002). Millerd (in press) estimated that shipping costs could increase by as much as 29% if the atmospheric concentration of CO2 doubles. Another scenario which assumed a more moderate increase in greenhouse gas emissions9 projected that costs could increase by 13% by 2050. As shown in the chart on the following page, ships are the most energy efficient way to move goods. Consequently, a shift to road or to avoid increased shipping costs, will potentially lead to an increase in fuel

8 In nautical parlance, draft is the depth below waterʹs surface of the lowest part of a ship or boat. Draft is usually determined for a fully-laden vessel. It determines the minimum depth of water that the vessel may pass through. 9 Greenhouse gases increase at past rates up to the present and then are increased by 1% a year until 2100. The cooling effects of sulphate aerosols are included.

25 consumption, and air pollution (Torrie 2005).

SHIPPING BY WATER REQUIRES ONLY 10% TO 20% OF THE ENERGY REQUIRED BY ROAD. SHIPS EMIT ⅟10 OF THE GREENHOUSE GASES RELEASED BY AND ½ OF THAT RELEASED BY TRAINS

Source: The St. Lawrence Seaway Management Corporation 2000

AIR TRAVEL – PEARSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT More extreme and unpredictable weather patterns will have serious implications for air travel, hampering movement in and out of Pearson Airport. While current winter weather conditions are already a common cause for flight delay, a more volatile climate could make summer air travel less predictable as well. In 2003, for instance, passenger volumes were significantly down (4.6% from 2002) due in part to extreme weather conditions (heavy snow falls and an April ice storm) and the August blackout (Greater Toronto Airport Authority 2003; 2004a). Climate change will make such situations increasingly common.

TRANSPORTATION MODAL SHIFT Although not well documented, transportation modes may shift as a result of climate change as certain types of travel become more convenient or more affordable. For instance, if gasoline prices soar due to hurricanes or storms in the US south, we may see more people in Toronto shift from the automobile to public transit, cycling and walking. On the other hand, we may also see the use of personal vehicles increase on extreme heat days to take advantage of air conditioning.

With low water levels in the Great Lakes projected to drive up shipping costs, there may also be a shift of freight from marine to road or rail (Transport Canada 2003). Climate change is also bringing

26 about stricter emission regulations, which may result in compliance costs being passed on to consumers. This will make environmentally- friendly forms of transportation more affordable and desirable (Mills et al. 2005).

BUILDINGS

Buildings are typically constructed to last 50 to 60 years. However, with weather patterns changing, buildings constructed in the past may not stand up to the current climate for the same length of time. Climate change can lead to structural damage of buildings from severe storms and inclement weather. It is also likely to affect the performance of buildings, making them very uncomfortable – and occasionally deadly – for occupants.

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE While structural damage to buildings from storm surges and inclement weather is not a new phenomenon, the increasing frequency and intensity of storms can result in greater damage to buildings, necessitating expensive and unexpected repairs.

Heavy rainfall can lead to flash flooding and sewer backups, damaging buildings and homes as occurred during the Peterborough flood in July 2004 as well as the Toronto and southern Ontario storm of August 19, 2005. In addition to short-term water damage, long- term problems with moulds and mildew could develop, especially if average annual temperatures and precipitation amounts rise.

Heavy snowfalls expected as a result of climate change can lead to the collapse of building roofs, especially wide-span roofs, when weight exceeds design snow loads. In 2000, for instance, heavy snowfall led to the collapse of a mall roof in Sarnia killing one woman and injuring several others (CNN 2000; Klaassen 2001).

Extreme snowfall can also lead to costly and destructive “ice- damming.” Following the January 1999 snowstorm in Toronto and southern Ontario, the insurance industry fielded damage claims worth $50 million. The majority of the damage resulted from ice- damming, which occurs when ice building up in eavestroughs causes melting snow to back up under shingles and into the attic (Building Envelope News 2001).

27 Freeze-thaw cycles are a common occurrence in southern Ontario, and will likely increase in frequency as winters become milder (Auld 2001). The cycle of freezing and thawing subjects building materials to continual expansion and contraction (UKCIP 2003). This continual wear and tear leaves buildings more susceptible to damage from weather extremes (Auld and MacIver 2005). Freeze-thaws are also the leading cause of ice-damming.

Damage from extreme wind is another threat, especially as storms are expected to occur with greater intensity. While studies at Environment Canada have not found any consistent trends in wind speeds across Ontario, a review of newspaper archives in Dufferin County revealed an increased frequency of damaging winds (MacIver 2005). Small increases in wind speed can result in a disproportionate rise in losses as is illustrated in the graph below. A 25% increase in peak wind speed can generate a 650% increase in building damages (Coleman 2002). Poorly maintained or lower quality will be particularly vulnerable to an increase in wind velocity (Auld and MacIver 2005).

SMALL INCREASES IN WIND SPEED CAN RESULT IN DISPROPORTIONATELY LARGE INCREASES IN BUILDING DAMAGE.

Source: Coleman 2002

BUILDING PERFORMANCE Higher summer temperatures lead to increased thermal discomfort, which affects the health, productivity and general comfort of occupants (UKCIP 2003). During the summer of 2005, six deaths occurred in Toronto rooming houses and shelters as a result of extreme heat (McKeown 2006), where a lack of air conditioning, and

28 fire codes that required doors to remain shut raised the temperature inside these buildings to intolerable levels (Smyer 2006).

URBAN ECOSYSTEM

A healthy natural environment is an important component of a healthy city. Toronto has more than 1,500 parks and parkettes, and half a million street trees, providing about 17% of canopy coverage for the city (Ubbens 2006). These urban green spaces and trees absorb rain water and reduce runoff, absorb air pollutants and CO2, provide shade, reduce ambient temperatures in summer, and serve as habitat for wildlife. However, vast expanses of concrete and asphalt, compacted soils, fragmentation of natural environments, pollution and the urban heat island effect place Toronto’s urban ecosystem under stress. Changing weather patterns under climate change are expected to place Toronto’s natural areas under even greater stress, affecting tree health, wildlife habitat, plant communities, , and water quality.

URBAN FORESTS AND OTHER VEGETATION Toronto’s Urban Forestry Services are committed to doubling the City’s tree canopy to 30-40%, in order to provide more shade, reduce the urban heat island effect and improve aesthetics (Hart 2006). Although expanding the canopy would help reduce the impact of climate change on the City, it is made more difficult by the changes that are already underway.

Heat stress is a major problem, particularly for newly planted trees, which require regular watering to survive. Heat stress is typically at its worst during the day, but can also affect plants at night, which is a critical time for many plant growth mechanisms (Coder 1996). The extreme heat and drought during the summer of 2005 placed significant stress on Toronto’s trees. The full impact of these conditions will not be seen for a few years, but is expected to reduce HIGH WINDS AND STORMS CAN DAMAGE OR UPROOT TREES. survival (Ubbens 2006). Source: www.barron.palo- alto.ca.us Hotter summers also lead to a greater concentration of ground-level ozone, which can be detrimental to plant growth. Elevated concentrations can damage tree leaves and slow down growth. Ozone in combination with extreme heat and drought leaves plants more vulnerable to pathogenic fungi and pests such as the Asian- longhorned beetle and the emerald ash borer (Ubbens 2006; Kling et

29 al. 2003). Increased ice storms and high winds will also damage trees, taking down branches or entire trees altogether.

As the climate gradually warms and the growing season gets longer, plants are likely to move northward. In the Toronto area, this means we will likely see more southern species move in and indigenous species moving north to cooler climates. However, because vegetation cannot migrate quickly, the change in climate is more likely to result in stressed plants, vegetation dieback, and loss of native biodiversity (MacIver 2005). The Association for Canadian Educational Resources (ACER), the Humber Arboretum Arborvitae, and the Meteorological Service of Canada have established an MILDER WINTERS WILL INCREASE experimental site at the Toronto Humber Arboretum to monitor the SURVIVAL RATE AND POPULATIONS impacts of warmer temperatures on urban forest biodiversity OF SOME NUISANCE SPECIES. (Casselman and Karsh 2006). Results from this study will be available Source: www.1kai.dokkyomed.ac soon and will provide valuable insight for future planting.

URBAN WILDLIFE A warmer climate will allow birds such as cardinals and chickadees to breed earlier and raise more broods. Bigger resident bird populations, however, could reduce the food available for migratory songbirds. Migratory birds (which begin migration in response to day length) may also find themselves without a food source in our forest corridors, as their primary food source, often caterpillars that feed on tree buds, will emerge earlier in response to warmer temperatures (Kling et al. 2003). Other urban wildlife such as raccoons, skunks and rats may also benefit from warmer winters, allowing a greater rate of survival, thereby creating greater populations of nuisance species (Mortsch 2005). Survival rates for destructive insect species such as the Asian long-horned beetle are also expected to increase as a result of milder winter temperatures.

WETLANDS AND SHOREBIRDS More than 80% of southern Ontario’s original wetlands have already

THE BLACK TERN (TOP) AND THE disappeared (Ross et al. 2003). The City and many citizens’ LEAST BITTERN, BOTH FOUND IN organizations have undertaken projects to protect and restore a GREAT LAKES WETLANDS, ARE THREATENED BY CLIMATE CHANGE. number of Toronto’s wetlands, in recognition of their importance in providing habitat for shorebirds, amphibians and fish, and in Source: www.grandriver.ca (top) Robert McCaw (bottom) slowing and filtering stormwater runoff.

Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns are leading to earlier spring runoff and lower summer water levels, while intense rain events can result in more flooding. Such disturbances can reduce

30 the flood-absorbing capacities of floodplains and wetlands, resulting in more erosion, additional water pollution and delayed recovery from acid rain.

Changes in the timing and severity of floods will reduce the number of safe breeding sites for shorebirds, amphibians, and waterfowl and may cause migratory species to seek wintering sites further north. Midsummer floods from intense rain events can inundate low-lying bird nests and attract predators. Increased evaporation will shrink wetland habitat, however, existing wetlands may shift or new wetlands may develop along lake edges as water levels drop (Mortsch 2006; Kling et al. 2003). Great Lakes wetlands are home to many rare, endangered, and unique plant and animal species, many of which will not be able to adapt to a changing climate given their specific habitat needs (International Joint Commission 2003; Mortsch 1998).

AQUATIC SPECIES Aquatic species will differ in their response to changing water temperature and hydrology. Cold water species such as brook trout, lake trout, and whitefish are likely to decline whereas cool water species such as walleye and muskie and warm water species such as smallmouth bass will expand their ranges northward. These changes will likely be accompanied by an increase in invasions of non-native organisms such as zebra mussels and the common carp, dramatically altering native fish communities (Kling et al. 2003).

Summer stratification10 in lakes will likely increase, resulting in oxygen depletion and the formation of “dead zones” for aquatic species. Persistent dead zones can cause massive fish kills, toxic algal THE BROOK TROUT, FOUND IN LAKES MICHIGAN, HURON, ONTARIO AND blooms, and foul-smelling, musty-tasting drinking water (Kling et al. SUPERIOR, IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE IN 2003). NUMBERS AS CLIMATE CHANGE LEADS TO CHANGES IN WATER TEMPERATURE AND HYDROLOGY. Reduced ice cover on the Great Lakes renders the eggs of certain fish Source: www.montana- species more vulnerable to storm disturbance. Winterkill, however, riverboats.com will likely decrease as a result of warmer water temperatures (Kling et al. 2003; International Joint Commission 2003).

10 When water is “stratified” it becomes layered, meaning that warmer water sits on top of cooler water. The warmer water acts as a lid, preventing the water below from mixing with air. Each spring, lake water mixes completely saturating the water with oxygen. Soon after, the sun warms the surface water and stratification sets in.

31 RIVERS AND STREAMS Toronto’s watersheds provide habitat for a variety of plants and animal species that could be adversely affected as a result of climate change. Warmer air temperatures and a longer ice-free season will result in greater evaporation of water from rivers and streams and a general drying of watersheds. A dryer watershed can lead to depleted oxygen, higher concentrations of pollutants as water levels decline, reduced transport of organic matter and nutrients, and the disruption of food webs (Kling et al. 2003).

VULNERABLE POPULATIONS

Low-income individuals and households are more vulnerable to extreme weather and natural disasters due to greater exposure (i.e homelessness, outdoor manual labour) and lack of resources (i.e. households unable to afford air conditioning; living in older housing stock). Low-income individuals and households are also slower to recover from weather-related and other disasters because of less savings and insurance coverage, greater unemployment, and less access to vital information and communication channels (Erskine 2004).

Hurricane Katrina provided a stark example of the vulnerability of low-income people to natural disasters. Before Katrina, 25% of the population of New Orleans did not own a motor vehicle and 18.4% were living in poverty (The Observer 2005). Many of these people were unable to evacuate the city and are now facing great difficulty in rebuilding their lives.

Currently in Toronto there are 552,300 people living below the poverty line, 65,246 households on the waiting list for affordable housing, and 32,700 homeless individuals (including 4,600 children) that depend on shelters (Lo 2006; Vaughan 2006). Extreme heat, winter storms, cold snaps or other inclement weather will have a LESS FORTUNATE RESIDENTS OF NEW ORLEANS COPING WITH HURRICANE significant impact on these people. KATRINA.

Source: www.katrinapictures.blogspot.com TOURISM AND RECREATION

Toronto received 18.5 million visitors in 2004 and is Canada’s prime tourist destination (Tourism Toronto 2005). Toronto’s warmer summers may extend the prime tourist season and provide a longer season for outdoor recreational activities such as running, biking,

32 and swimming. However, these benefits could be offset by increases in heat waves, smog days, heavy downpours, and increased risk (or perception of risk) from insect and waterborne disease (Kling et al. 2003) as seen in the 2003 SARS11 scare.

As discussed earlier, warmer water temperatures create better conditions for the growth of bacteria and algae. Increased bacterial growth, particularly from E. coli, can result in unsafe swimming conditions and beach closures (City of Toronto 2005b).

Other recreational activities such as bird watching and fishing will also be affected by climate change. Loss of habitat, range shift, and declining population size will make a favourite bird sighting or preferred catch more difficult to obtain (Kling et al. 2003). Source: City of Toronto 2005

Lower lake water levels will impede access to docks, marinas, launching ramps, and boat storage facilities (Armstrong 2005; Logfren 2002). Cruises through Toronto’s harbour may be affected by lower water levels or even water quality if unpleasant odours occur.

ECONOMY

Toronto serves as Canada’s hub for finance, industry and commerce and accounts for one-fifth of Canada’s (Drummond 2004). As a result, business continuity within Toronto is important not only to the city, but also to the nation as a whole.

Toronto’s largest industry is the banking and financial services sector. The headquarters of three of the six major Canadian banks are located in the city, as is the . Other major industries include tourism, , communications, film, and exports (Toronto Tourism 2005; Brean 2004).

Climate change and extreme weather have the potential to seriously hamper economic activity in the city. The 2000 Toronto Competes report states that “quality of life” is an increasingly important factor in keeping Toronto competitive, and warns that the increase in the number and duration of smog days seriously threatens quality of life in Toronto (Egan 2000).

11 While SARS was not related to climate change, it is a good example of what can happen during a disease outbreak.

33 Extreme weather such as ice storms, high winds, heavy snowfalls and extreme heat can result in power blackouts, which means more than just a loss of electricity. With a large portion of the economy dependent on electricity even a temporary loss of power can have a significant and lasting impact on business operations. Operating within an increasingly global economy, even if a business is not directly affected, its customers, suppliers, vendors, and/or employees might be, which can impact sales and operations. Once a business’s operations are finally up and running, it is faced with the task of filing insurance claims for any losses that were incurred as a result of the disruption (assuming that the business has insurance and damages are covered).The power outage in August 2003, for instance, and the ensuing week of energy use restrictions, caused a substantial economic blow to Toronto’s third quarter performance (Drummond 2004). The City of Toronto suffered approximately $200 million in losses, grocery stores lost about $10 million in perishable food, and restaurants destroyed about $6 million worth of perishable food (City of Toronto 2003b). The blackout was a stark demonstration of Toronto’s vulnerability to power loss.

In addition to revenue losses, extreme weather events will also result in municipalities, individuals, insurers and other businesses having to deal with substantial unexpected costs for repair and recovery. The insurance and reinsurance industries in particular, bear huge costs during natural disasters and as a result have been tracking extreme weather and its associated costs. Worldwide trends show that extreme weather events are on the rise and the financial losses associated with these have been increasing dramatically. Costs associated with global natural disasters have been doubling every ten years since the 1960s (Association of British Insurers 2005). The graph below illustrates the increase in disasters, both natural and human- made, from 1970 to 2004.

34

The August 19, 2005 storm that hit southern Ontario cost the insurance industry $500 million for all storms, including two tornadoes. The bulk of the costs were due to flooding in Toronto (Meteorological Service of Canada 2005b).

FINANCIAL BURDEN ON MUNICIPALITIES Extreme weather events can place a significant financial burden on municipalities for emergency services, repairs and replacement of infrastructure, and clean up efforts. For departments without contingency funds, resources have to be diverted from capital projects and can set back workplans by weeks or months. The storm on August 19, 2005, for example, damaged numerous roadways, damaged sewer and gas lines, uprooted numerous trees, and damaged various park facilities. Damages to the City’s Parks department alone, totaled $12.5 million including damage to 75 bridges (5 of which need to be completely replaced), repair to 17 ROAD WASHOUT ON FINCH AVENUE ON sections of pathways in parks, and $3 million in damages to the AUGUST 19, 2005. THE CULVERT BENEATH THE ROAD COULD NO LONGER Morningside Parks facility and its equipment (Watson 2006). CONTAIN THE FLOW OF BLACK CREEK.

Source: www.yudc.ca Further costs to the City for repairs and clean up following the storm include:

• Finch Avenue West road repair - $5 million • Steeles Avenue West road repair - $10,000 - $20,000 • Steeles Avenue East road repair - $20,000 • Military Trail road repair – $100,000

35 • Highland Creek wastewater treatment plant (equipment replacement and repair) and trunk sewer repair –- over $1 million • Clean up of fallen trees and branches - $600,000

(City of Toronto 2005; Ubbens 2006)

The series of snowstorms in early January 1999 also demonstrates the costs of extreme weather. The City paid $70 million in snow clearing (more than twice its annual budget) and lost $2 million in parking ticket revenue (Meteorological Service of Canada 1999).

With extreme weather events predicted to increase in both frequency and intensity, the City of Toronto will face growing and unpredictable costs to deal with disasters, which may require diversion of funds from capital projects. As past weather patterns become less valid as predictors of the future, financial forecasting could prove to be a difficult task.

INCREASE IN INSURANCE PREMIUMS Climate change and increasingly variable weather are likely to lead to more insurance claims and increased insurance costs. This in turn will lead to higher premiums and deductibles, lower limits on payouts, and broader coverage restrictions. These costs will be compounded by the fact that people are constructing more complex and expensive buildings, and by our increasing reliance on electricity and technology.

The United States shows examples of this trend. In Florida, insurance rates rose substantially after a string of hurricanes in 2004, and in Texas insurers pulled out of the housing market altogether when claims for water and mould damage skyrocketed in 2001 (Mills et al. 2005).

Reduced access to insurance that is affordable will have a profound impact on consumers and businesses, and may result in increasing WHEN SEVERE HURRICANES OR STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN US financial and social responsibilities for municipalities in the event of KNOCK OUT OIL REFINERIES, a natural disaster (Mills et al. 2005). PIPELINES OR PORT FACILITIES, IT NOT ONLY DRIVES UP GASOLINE PRICES IN THE UNITED STATES, BUT IN CANADA AS WELL. RISE IN ENERGY COSTS Energy costs are likely to rise as weather patterns become more Source: www.katrinapictures.blogspot.com volatile. The price of natural gas, for instance, rose across North America in the fall of 2005 due to devastating hurricanes in the southern United States, which resulted in reduced supplies and fears

36 of shortages over the winter (CBC News 2005a; 2005b). Gasoline prices also soared across Canada, hitting a high of $1.39 per litre (CBC News 2005c). These costs will increase expenses for municipalities, businesses, and households. In addition, regulation of CO2 emissions from the energy sector, may result in the upfront compliance costs being passed on to energy consumers (Mills et al. 2005).

INCREASING SOCIAL COSTS Extreme heat, air pollution, and extreme weather events, all of which will very likely worsen under climate change, have negative social impacts. The full costs of these impacts include health care costs, lost productivity, and a decline in social well-being due to pain, suffering, and death.

An estimate of the health care costs of air pollution for Ontario was released in a report by the Ontario Medical Association in 2005. According to this study, the costs of air pollution in 2005 totaled over $7 billion (this includes lost productivity, healthcare costs, pain and suffering, and loss of life). By 2026, this figure is expected to reach almost $13 billion (Ontario Medical Association 2005).

On a more local level, air pollution costs Toronto $118 million in health care each year, and costs the economy $81 million in lost productivity (Ontario Medical Association 2005). And with climate change increasing summer temperatures and exacerbating air pollution, these costs can be expected to rise.

Other social costs will result from extreme weather such as heat waves, cold snaps and storms. These weather events place vulnerable populations such as low-income and homeless people at great risk as they are more likely to be unable to afford protective measures such as air conditioning and shelter from storms. Very intense storms or natural disasters, such as the ice storm in 1998, will place large demands on the city’s emergency response services.

Toronto’s size and availability of resources makes it a logical destination to temporarily house people affected by extreme weather or disasters in surrounding areas. Likewise, Toronto can also expect to be called upon for financial assistance or supplies to aid neighbouring communities (Smyer 2006).

37 INCREASE IN TRANSPORTATION COSTS While the cost of climate change on road and air transport has not been well studied, the anticipated increase in frequency and intensity of storms will delay and/or inhibit the movement of people and goods, resulting in economic losses to a variety of sectors ranging from transportation service operators themselves to the businesses they serve.

The movement of people and goods in and out of Pearson Airport, for instance, is estimated to have generated $14 billion in revenue for local businesses and $2.8 billion in tax revenue in 2001 (Greater Toronto Airport Authority 2004b). Service disruption to air travel due to extreme weather will significantly impact businesses that depend on efficient and timely airport operations. The August 2003 blackout, for instance, shut down ’s operations control centre in Toronto. As a result, the airline was forced to cancel 500 of its 700 scheduled flights on Friday, stranding 500,000 passengers and incurring losses of approximately $20 million (City of Toronto 2003b).

Shipping costs in the Great Lakes are expected to rise because of a projected drop in water levels in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Seaway. Reduced water depths will force vessels to lighten cargo loads thereby necessitating more trips to transport the same amount of goods. It is estimated that a 1 metre drop in Lake Ontario, would cost each vessel $100,000 due to reduced cargo loads (Armstrong 2006). In 1964, low water levels caused a $35 million loss for Great Lakes shipping and hydropower (Environment Canada 2006c). In a recent study, Millerd (in press) estimated that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 could increase shipping costs in the Great Lakes by as much as 29%. Another scenario using a more moderate increase in greenhouse gas emissions projected that costs would increase by 13% by 2050, recognizing that shipping costs will vary by commodity and route.

CONCLUSIONS

Climate change is a serious issue that warrants further attention from decision-makers in both the public and private sectors in Toronto. Significant changes in weather patterns are already underway and extreme weather events are expected to become much more common. These will impact important systems in the city, including

38 health, ecosystems, water supply, and energy demand. Toronto’s high density of people, buildings, infrastructure, and essential services make it particularly vulnerable to extreme weather and natural disasters. The trend towards inner city intensification and urban growth increases these risks.

The City needs to investigate in more depth how expected changes in weather and climate are likely to affect its operations, and to begin planning to reduce the vulnerability of Toronto’s inhabitants and critical infrastructure. While certain initiatives – such as Toronto’s Heat-Health Alert System – that respond to a changing climate are already underway, more action will need to be taken in other sectors of the City’s operations. These initiatives can range from new design standards for critical infrastructure to better withstand storms to planting of trees and shrubs more tolerant of temperature extremes to the implementation of distributed and renewable energy systems to reduce vulnerability to blackouts.

Phase two of this project will look at initiatives other cities are undertaking to adapt to climate change and will highlight strategies that appear promising for Toronto. By examining the strengths and weakness of adaptation actions taken by other cities and regions, we can make better recommendations about how Toronto can reduce its vulnerability and take advantage of opportunities.

Effective action on climate change addresses the need to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (mitigation) as well as strategies to cope with changes to climate that are already underway (adaptation). Even if all emissions were to cease today, some climate change would still be inevitable due to the level of greenhouse gases already present in the atmosphere. By improving our prediction, prevention, design and operational capacities we can build more resilient communities that are better able to adapt to a changing climate.

39

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