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Counterfactual History and Bosnia-Herzegovina Stian Nordengen Christensen Is a Doc- Tor of History and Philosophy, and Master Stian Nordengen Christensen of Law Stian Nordengen Christensen Stian Nordengen Publication Series No. 30 (2018): Author of this volume: Counterfactual History and Bosnia-Herzegovina Stian Nordengen Christensen is a doc- tor of history and philosophy, and master Stian Nordengen Christensen of law. He has worked as a diplomat for the Norwegian Foreign Service since 2005. The Our understanding of history shapes our planning for the future. Assessment of what book is written in his personal academic ca- could have been done in past crises is important to judge fairly the responsibility of pacity and does not necessarily refl ect views individual agents, but is also often used to formulate new rules, regimes and poli- of the Norwegian Government. cies. Analyses of past options are counterfactual thought-experiments: Could those responsible have made different decisions, and what would the consequences have been? Despite the centrality of such analyses, there is only a limited literature on The Torkel Opsahl Academic EPublisher their scientifi c foundation. This book proposes criteria for validity and plausibility of Counterfactual History and Bosnia-Herzegovina (TOAEP) furthers the objective of excellence counterfactual analyses of historical cases. in research, scholarship and education by pub- lishing worldwide in print and through the The armed confl icts in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the 1990s were critical for Internet. As a non-profi t publisher, it is fi rmly the formation of key international legal rules and regimes, as well as for our think- committed to open access publishing. ing on possible diplomatic and military responses to subsequent armed confl icts. TOAEP is named after late Professor The second part of the book discusses three counterfactual hypotheses about how Torkel Opsahl (1931–1993), a leading interna- the confl icts could have been stopped, by a) increased diplomatic pressure, b) use tional and constitutional law expert in Europe of ground troops to implement a peace agreement in 1993, and c) use of early in the period from the mid-1960s until his air strikes to enforce peace. In assessing these hypotheses, the book attempts to untimely passing in 1993. He was one of the shed light both on the course of the confl icts, and on the general possibilities and early pillars of the human rights systems of the limitations of using historical experience to draw lessons for the present or future. United Nations and the Council of Europe. ISBNs: 978-82-8348-102-0 (print) and 978-82-8348-103-7 (e-book). Above: Painting of Professor Torkel Opsahl by Counterfactual History and Bosnia-Herzegovina Front cover: Detail of the rain drainage sys- the Italian artist Roberto Caruso. tem in front of Palazzo Pitti in Florence. The drain- Stian Nordengen Christensen age is carved into local stone, coming towards us Back cover: Detail of the fl oor next to the from above and making a sharp turn to follow the tomb of Catherine of Bosnia (1424/25–1478) – square which slopes down to the left. Counterfac- the last Queen of Bosnia and Herzegovina – in tual history is a thought-experiment, where we, to Basilica di Santa Maria in Aracoeli al Campidoglio, use the image, go upstream and try to analyse on the highest summit of the Capitol in Rome. the consequences if the course of the drainage had been altered. Photograph: © CILRAP 2018. Photograph: © CILRAP 2018. Torkel Opsahl Academic EPublisher E-mail: [email protected] URL: www.toaep.org Dust jacket designed by LIAO Wan-Ting. Counterfactual History and Bosnia-Herzegovina Stian Nordengen Christensen 2018 Torkel Opsahl Academic EPublisher Brussels This and other publications in the Publication Series may be openly accessed and downloaded through the web site http://www.toaep.org/ which uses Persistent URLs for all publications it makes available (such PURLs will not be changed). This publi- cation was published on 11 July 2018. © Torkel Opsahl Academic EPublisher, 2018 All rights are reserved. You may read, print or download this publication or any part of it from http://www.toaep.org/ for personal use, but you may not in any way charge for its use by others, directly or by reproducing it, storing it in a retrieval system, transmitting it, or utilising it in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, in whole or in part, without the prior permission in writing of the copyright holder. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the copyright holder. You must not circulate this publication in any other cover and you must impose the same condition on any acquirer. You must not make this publication or any part of it available on the Internet by any other URL than that on http://www.toaep.org/, without permission of the publisher. ISBNs: 978-82-8348-102-0 (print) and 978-82-8348-103-7 (e-book). For my wife FOREWORD The experiences from large-scale armed conflicts shape our thinking about how we should respond in the future, in terms both of international law and international politics. This is certainly true for the armed conflicts in Bosnia and Herzegovina (hereinafter ‘Bosnia-Herzegovina’) in the 1990s, which were critical for the development of international law and institutions, and for diplomatic and military planning, in the subsequent decades. Many of these developments stem from the notion of historical possibilities: That international armed conflicts could have been prevented or at least that the suffering could have been reduced. If so, then we can prepare better for the future. It is therefore essential that we have a clear understanding of histori- cal possibilities. Despite this, there is a clear and persistent reluctance among professional historians to consider counterfactual possibilities from a scientific point of view. This book suggests how to increase the under- standing of past possibilities in large-scale armed conflicts, though coun- terfactual analysis. Hopefully, this can lead to more informed decisions on future law and policy options. This book is based on my doctoral dissertation, completed in 2011. There are several persons deserving of thanks for helping me in this work. First among them is Professor Tor Egil Førland, who guided me through the final stages of writing and provided feedback and suggestions that have led to a significantly improved product. I am also indebted to Professor Øystein Sørensen, Professor Ottar Dahl, Professor Knut Kjeldstadli, Marius Søberg, Kai Yamaguchi, Bård Frydenlund and Nils August Andresen, who all read through the dissertation at various stages and provided suggestions and insights that have doubtlessly improved the quality of the work. I would also like to thank the members of the Ph.D. commission and the independ- ent experts who evaluated this dissertation and provided me with helpful and insightful feedback, namely Finn Erhard Johannesen, Aviezer Tucker, Sabrina P. Ramet, Arne Johan Vetlesen and Susan L. Woodward. I thank Stig Oppedal for his proof-reading and useful suggestions re- garding language and clarity. Staff members at the Department of Archae- i ology, Conservation and History at the University of Oslo, the Nobel Insti- tute in Oslo, and the Archives of the Royal Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs also deserve credit for their service and assistance. I also thank the Torkel Opsahl Academic EPublisher for its highly professional work in get- ting the manuscript ready for publication, in particular SIN Ngok Shek and Manek Minhas. Finally, let me thank my wife, Kristine, for all her love and support, and for her understanding when I have worked with the dissertation through many weekends and evenings. I am incredibly fortunate to have her as my wife. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword .......................................................................................................... i Abbreviations .................................................................................................. xi PART I INTRODUCTION 1. Introduction .......................................................................................... 1 1.1. General Introduction ....................................................................... 1 1.1.1. Aims of this Book ................................................................ 1 1.1.2. Definition of a Counterfactual Hypothesis .......................... 1 1.1.3. Establishing Relevance: The Munich Counterfactual .......... 3 1.2. Previous Research on Counterfactuals ............................................ 6 1.2.1. Counterfactuals in the Philosophy of Science ...................... 6 1.2.2. Counterfactuals in Social Science ........................................ 7 1.2.3. Counterfactuals in the Philosophy of History ...................... 8 1.2.4. A Note on Theories of Scientific Explanations and Demarcation................................................................. 12 1.2.5. Remaining Dilemmas and Shortcomings in the Existing Literature...............................................................13 1.2.6. Objections to Counterfactual History..................................16 1.3. The Case: Historiography of the War in Bosnia-Herzegovina in 1993.......................................................... 17 1.3.1. Relevance: Why Bosnia-Herzegovina? .............................. 17 1.3.2. Previous Literature on the War in Bosnia-Herzegovina ........................................................... 19 1.3.3. Sources and Methodological Approach ............................. 23 1.4. The Contents of this Book ............................................................
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