Post Conference Report

A Report of the Fifth National Conference on Science, Policy and the Environment

February 3-4, 2005 • Washington, DC

Craig M. Schiffries, Editor he National Council for Science and the Environment (NCSE) has been working since 1990 to improve the scientific Tbasis of environmental decisionmaking and has earned an impressive reputation for objectivity, responsibility, and achievement. The Council envisions a society where environmental decisions are based on an accurate understanding of the underlying environmental science, its meaning, and its limitations. In such a society, citizens and decisionmakers receive accurate, understandable, and integrated science-based information. They understand the risks, uncertainties, and potential consequences of their action or inaction. Endorsed by more than 500 academic, scientific, environmental, and business organizations, and federal, state, and local government, NCSE works closely with the many communities that create and use environmental knowledge to shape environmental decisions.

The Council conducts a range of innovative activities in the following areas:

Promoting Science for the Environment The Council played an instrumental role in stimulating the National Science Foundation initiative to triple its annual budget for environmental research, education, and scientific assessment. The Council presents expert testimony to Congressional committees, consults regularly with key decisionmakers in government, and works to promote funding for environmental research and education at numerous federal agencies.

Enhancing Programs at Academic Institutions NCSE brings members of the academic community together to help them improve their environmental programs and increase their value to society. The University Affiliate Program, the Council of Environmental Deans and Directors, and the Minority Programs Office are three NCSE programs designed to serve this purpose.

Catalyzing and Advancing Ideas from Diverse Communities The Council advances science to inform environmental decisionmaking through conferences, workshops, and partnerships, including the annual National Conference on Science, Policy and the Environment, and the annual John H. Chafee Memorial Lecture on Science and the Environment.

Communicating Science-Based Information to Society NCSE is committed to communicating understandable, comprehensive, science-based information to decisionmakers and the general public. The widely-acclaimed online National Library for the Environment (NLE) includes Congressional Research Service reports, directories of foundations and academic programs, job opportunities, environmental news sources, laws, treaties, and much more. NCSE is currently working with partners to develop a comprehensive online environmental information resource called the Earth Portal. When fully developed, the Earth Portal will present authoritative, science-based information on thousands of environmental topics, combining new and existing resources to guide the non-expert to a science-based understanding of environmental issues. NCSE publishes the annual Handbook of Federal Funding for Environmental R&D for members of the University Affiliate Program. The Council sends science policy updates to more than 15,000 interested individuals worldwide.

Developing Science Solutions for Environmental Challenges The Council brings stakeholders together through its Center for Science Solutions to develop and implement science-based solutions to specific environmental problems. The first program under the Center, the National Commission on Science for Sustainable Forestry, supports research to develop a better scientific foundation for assessing and improving forest management practices. ForeENVIRONMENTALcasting CHANGES

A Report of the Fifth National Conference on Science, Policy and the Environment

February 3-4, 2005 • Washington, DC

ISBN 0-9710439-9-X

Forecasting Environmental Changes: A Report of the Fifth National Conference on Science, Policy and the Environment February 3-4, 2005 Washington, DC

For citation purposes, please use: National Council for Science and the Environment, 2005, Forecasting Environmental Changes: A Report of the Fifth National Conference on Science, Policy and the Environment. Craig M. Schiffries, Ed. Washington, D.C.

Additional comments and requests for information may be addressed to:

Craig M. Schiffries, 5th National Conference Chair National Council for Science and the Environment 1707 H Street, NW, Suite 200 Washington, DC 20006-3918 Phone: 202-530-5810 Fax: 202-628-4311 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.NCSEonline.org

Report design and production: Cecil Editorial ([email protected]).

All photos courtesy NASA except where noted below. Cover photo bar, right to left: Phytoplankton bloom in Malvinas Current, South Atlantic Ocean | Super flare combo | Clouds © Crista Renouard | Antarctic ice | Tsunami strikes Sri Lanka | Cloud whirlpool over the Alboran Sea. Cover background: Typhoon Mawar with Tropical Cyclone Guchol. Inside photos: same as cover, except page 23, Anak Krakatau. Photos of NCSE conference courtesy Erin Dey, except page 18 courtesy NCSE.

Printed on recycled paper with soy inks.

Manufactured in the United States of America.

ii Sponsorship

The National Council for Science and the Environment is grateful to the following sponsors for making possible the Fifth National Conference on Science, Policy and the Environment

Sponsors

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration U.S. Environmental Protection Agency U.S. Geological Survey

Partner Humane Society International/EarthVoice

Patrons

3M The Dow Chemical Company NASA National Center for Caribbean Coral Reef Research, University of Miami - RSMAS National Park Service USDA Forest Service USDA UV-B Monitoring and Research Program, Colorado State University

Supporters

Disney’s Animal Kingdom Water Environment Federation

Additional Support from

NCSE President’s Circle Members NCSE University Affiliate Members

iii “We live in a country where the scientific content of public policy issues is increasing sharply. It follows that scientific literacy is essential to sustaining our democracy. We must therefore work to ensure that NCSE and others that share its goals grow in strength and influence.”

JAMES GUSTAVE SPETH Dean, Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies Former Administrator, United Nations Development Programme Founder and Former President, World Resources Institute

“Our topic—forecasting environmental changes—ranks as one of the grand challenges facing scientists, engineers, policymakers and concerned citizens in our time. Fundamental research on the environment has great promise to contribute in myriad ways to our nation and our world.”

ARDEN L. BEMENT, JR. Director, National Science Foundation

iv Contents

Executive Summary...... vi Sessions on Connecting Institutions 6. Integrating U.S. efforts with international initiatives ...... 52 1 Introduction...... 1 7. Linking levels of government: Federal-state-local...... 52 8. Cross-sectoral connections: Engaging the Plenary Lectures and Awards...... 5 2 private sector as a government partner...... 53 Selected Plenary Lectures James Gustave Speth, Some Say by Fire: Forecasting, Sessions on Scientific and Technological Connections Climate Change, and What We Can Do as Americans...... 6 9. Linking ocean, atmospheric, and terrestrial Arden L. Bement, Jr., From New Sight to Foresight: observation and forecasting systems...... 55 The Long View on the Environment ...... 13 10. Integrating economic, social, and Jack Dangermond, Building a Digital environmental forecasting...... 56 Abstraction of the Earth...... 18 11. Working across spatial scales: From molecular to global ...... 57 Lifetime Achievement Award 12. Forecasting environmental change William D. Ruckelshaus, Choosing Our of the landscape at a regional scale...... 58 Common Future: Democracy’s True Test...... 20 13. Working across temporal scales—Integrating 3 Roundtable Discussions...... 23 short-term and long-term approaches ...... 59 Lessons Learned from Successful 14. Facilitating the development of Environmental Forecasting Approaches...... 24 environmental sensors and sensor networks...... 60 Designing Ecological Forecasting Systems ...... 28 15. Fusion and integration of satellite Applying Environmental Forecasting to remote-sensing and ground-based observations Environmental Decisionmaking...... 32 and presentation for environmental policy ...... 60 16. Examining the role of eco-informatics 4 Symposia ...... 37 in environmental decisionmaking ...... 61 Creating a Global Earth Observation System of Systems 17. Cyberinfrastructure for all: Connectivity, (GEOSS): Benefits for Environmental Forecasting...... 38 content, and collaboration...... 62 Creating a National Ecological Observatory 18. Linking environmental indicators with forecasting...... 62 Network (NEON): Developing the Capacity 19. Moving from observation to forecasting for Ecological Forecasting ...... 41 systems: Linking characterization, process Environmental Change: An Interactive Discussion research, modeling, prediction and delivery...... 64 About the Future...... 43 Engaging Users in Environmental Forecasting...... 45 6 Conclusion: Primary Recommendations ...... 67 5 Targeted Recommendations...... 47 Sessions on Linking Systems and Users 7 Appendices...... 73 1. Connecting forecasts with policymakers...... 48 Appendix A: Agenda ...... 74 2. Improving the usefulness of environmental Appendix B: Breakout Sessions...... 78 information for personal decisionmaking ...... 48 Appendix C: Poster Presentations...... 82 3. Sharing forecasting information with users...... 50 Appendix D: Exhibitors...... 84 4. Improving academic programs to prepare Appendix E: Sponsors...... 85 the next generation of forecasters...... 50 Appendix F: NCSE University Affiliates...... 86 5. Providing real time forecasts— Appendix G: Conference Participants ...... 88 How to assess and meet user needs...... 51

v Executive Summary

he devastating tsunami in the Indian Ocean on For example, former NSF Director Rita Colwell highlight- December 26, 2004, focused global attention ed opportunities for improving human health. Gen. John on the need to improve environmental fore- Kelly, Deputy Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and casting and decisionmaking. The 5th National Conference Atmosphere, described economic benefits of weather fore- Ton Science, Policy and the Environment: Forecasting casts. Ann Bartuska, Deputy Chief for Research and Environmental Changes served as a forum to connect Development of the U.S. Forest Service, discussed oppor- researchers who study environmental conditions and tunities for improving land management decisions. Many trends with decisionmakers who need that information. speakers focused on opportunities for reducing loss of life More than 850 leading researchers, policymakers, gov- and property from natural disasters. ernment officials, business executives, educators, and stu- “All the technology in the world doesn’t do a lot of dents from 46 states participated in this multi-stakeholder good if you can’t get the word out,” said Charles Groat, conference. They assessed our ability to understand and Director of the U.S. Geological Survey. In the case of the forecast environmental changes, identified opportunities Indian Ocean tsunami, the entire warning chain was weak. for improving these capabilities, and articulated user needs The monitoring system in the Indian Ocean was inade- for achieving specific societal benefits of environmental quate; communication channels to local authorities were forecasting systems. insufficient; and public education was lacking. The conference was designed to provide input into Establishing a network of sensors in the Indian Ocean is major environmental forecasting systems under develop- easy in comparison with establishing lines of communica- ment, such as the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and the National Eco- logical Observatory Network (NEON). It also explored opportunities for building capacity and improving coordination among the many institutions, programs, activities, and individuals engaged in environmental forecasting. Participants applied lessons learned from successful environmental forecasting approaches— including examples from meteorology, oceanography, and geology—to help design new systems for forecasting ecological changes. They also addressed how improvements in environmental forecasting will foster improvements in environmental James Gustave Speth, Dean of the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, decisionmaking and promote a delivers the opening keynote address at NCSE’s 5th National Conference on Science, broad range of societal benefits. Policy and the Environment: Forecasting Environmental Changes.

vi er. Society will use continuous awareness to adaptively manage its environment and to promote a more unified global view of the problems that confront us in this century. Jack Dangermond, Founder and Chairman of ESRI, said geography provides a framework for understanding patterns, relationships, and processes at all scales, not just the whole globe but also neighborhoods, watersheds, cities, states, and nations. Geography provides a framework for modeling the future and for visualizing, integrating, and referencing what we know. Geographic Information Participants attend a luncheon during the conference. Systems, the language of geography, can be used for forecasting environ- tion to local authorities and educating local populations mental changes, improving environmental decisionmak- how to respond. D. James Baker, President of the Academy ing, and making the world a better place. of Natural Sciences, emphasized that better policy choices Walter Reid, Director of the Millennium Ecosystem are also a key part of reducing loss of life and property. Assessment, demonstrated how scenarios and science National Science Foundation Director Arden Bement assessments can be applied to environmental forecasting said that forecasting environmental changes ranks as one and decisionmaking. He described the Millennium of the grand challenges facing scientists, engineers, policy- Ecosystem Assessment as an international program makers, and concerned citizens in our time. Fundamental designed to meet the needs of decisionmakers and the research on the environment has great promise to con- public for scientific information concerning the conse- tribute in myriad ways to our nation and our world. He quences of ecosystem change for human well-being and emphasized that the National Science Foundation options for responding to those changes. embraces three aspects of environment: the natural, social, James Gustave Speth, Dean of the Yale School of and constructed environments. Insights into all three com- Forestry and Environmental Studies, focused on climate prise our ability to perceive, and to provide for, our future. disruption, which he believes is the single biggest threat Charles Kennel, Director of the Scripps Institution of facing society today. Speth offered a 10-point plan of action Oceanography, expressed a vision of the future in which that builds on the many positive, encouraging initiatives the advent of “nanonets” (systems of networked nanosen- already under way. He addressed opportunities for the sors) will herald a state of continuous awareness of the United States to assert a leadership role in global environ- operation of the Earth’s systems. That continuous aware- mental issues and change the way we understand the ness will lead to new scientific insights as information and future of our planet. understanding from disparate areas will be brought togeth- William D. Ruckelshaus, First and Fifth

vii Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection of environmental forecasting systems. Agency, addressed collaborative approaches to environ- 2. Build strong partnerships to facilitate environmental mental decisionmaking that have risen spontaneously forecasting. and in increasing numbers throughout the country since 3. Improve data and information management systems for the early 1980s. His lecture, Choosing Our Common environmental forecasting. Future: Democracy’s True Test, harkened back to his role as 4. Advance interdisciplinary research on environmental the U.S. representative to the Brundtland Commission, forecasting. which drafted the landmark report Our Common Future 5. Develop and deploy innovative technologies for envi- (1987) and led to one of the largest gatherings of world ronmental forecasting. leaders in history at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro 6. Improve education, outreach, and communications to in 1992. increase the societal benefits of environmental forecasts. This report contains the recommendations of the con- 7. Implement an integrated environmental forecasting ference participants—researchers, government officials, system. educators, business executives, civil society representatives, and decisionmakers from international, national, A coherent vision for environmental forecasting has state, and local organizations—who provided diverse per- been articulated by leading scientists and policy makers. spectives on forecasting environmental changes. Specific societal benefits and user requirements have been Conference attendees participated in one of 19 simulta- identified. While national and international bodies have neous breakout sessions organized along three themes: link- endorsed strategic plans and implementation plans, it is ing systems and users; connecting institutions; and scientif- now essential to move from planning to action. The final ic and technological connections. Participants in each ses- recommendation of the 5th National Conference on Science, sion developed targeted recommendations addressing a par- Policy and the Environment: Forecasting Environmental ticular aspect of environmental forecasting. A set of seven Changes is a call for action. Now is the time to fully imple- primary recommendations was drawn from a synthesis of ment an integrated environmental forecasting system that the targeted recommendations. The primary recommenda- will take the pulse of the planet, revolutionize our under- tions are as follows: standing of the Earth and its biosphere, and provide a 1. Engage users in the design, development, and operation broad range of societal and environmental benefits.

viii Chapter 1

INTRODUCTION

he National Conference on Science, Policy and the Environment is built on the idea that stakeholder- informed science is a powerful tool for building consensus necessary to solve the serious environmental problems we Tface. The 1st National Conference, held in December 2000, introduced the concept of sustainability science, which is a synthetic, interdisciplinary approach used to understand the complex interactions between society and nature. The 2nd National Conference focused on the role of science in achieving sustainable communities. The 3rd National Conference addressed education for a sustainable and secure future. The 4th National Conference explored the role of science in achieving sustainable relationships among water, people, and the environment. Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES INTRODUCTION

The devastating tsunami in the Indian Ocean on 2. Improving the usefulness of environmental informa- December 26, 2004, focused global attention on the need tion for personal decisionmaking to improve environmental forecasting and decisionmak- 3. Sharing forecasting information with users ing. The 5th National Conference on Science, Policy and 4. Improving academic programs to prepare the next the Environment: Forecasting Environmental Changes generation of forecasters served as a forum to connect researchers who study envi- 5. Providing real-time forecasts—How to assess and ronmental conditions and trends with decisionmakers meet user needs who need that information. The 5th National Conference engaged more than Connecting Institutions 850 participants from 46 states. This multi-stakeholder 6. Integrating U.S. efforts with international initiatives meeting brought together leaders from academic institu- 7. Linking levels of government: Federal-state-local tions, business, government, and non-profit organiza- 8. Cross-sectoral connections: Engaging the private sec- tions. It included elected and appointed officials at local, tor as a partner state, and national levels of government, as well as leaders of international organizations and civil society. Scientific and Technological Connections The conference included plenary sessions, sym- 9. Linking ocean, atmospheric and terrestrial observa- posia, and breakout sessions (see agenda, Appendix A). tion and forecasting systems The plenary sessions set the context of the major topics 10. Integrating economic, social, and environmental and provided an opportunity to learn from leading sci- forecasting entists and policymakers, including Yale Dean James 11. Working across spatial scales: From molecular to Gustave Speth, ESRI Founder and CEO Jack Dangermond, global and National Science Foundation Director Arden Bement. 12. Forecasting environmental change of the landscape The symposia addressed four crosscutting themes and at a regional scale included presentations and discussions from balanced 13. Working across temporal scales—Short-term and panels of experts. The breakout sessions generated rec- long-term approaches ommendations on specific topics. Speakers provided 14. Facilitating the development of environmental sen- diverse perspectives on environmental forecasting, and sors and sensor networks their remarks establish a solid body of background 15. Fusion and integration of satellite remote-sensing information. and ground-based observations and presentation for The conference was designed to provide input into environmental policy major environmental forecasting systems under develop- 16. Examining the role of eco-informatics in environment, such as the Global Earth Observation System of mental decisionmaking Systems (GEOSS) and the National Ecological 17. Cyberinfrastructure for all: Connectivity, content, Observatory Network (NEON). It also explored oppor- and collaboration tunities for building capacity and improving coordina- 18. Linking environmental indicators with forecasting tion among the many institutions, programs, activities, 19. Moving from observation to forecasting systems: and individuals engaged in environmental forecasting. Linking characterization, process research, model- Building connections among these forecasting elements ing, prediction, and delivery was the focus of 19 concurrent interactive breakout sessions organized along three themes: Four concurrent symposia examined major projects and issues that cut across the themes: Linking Systems and Users 1. Connecting forecasts with policymakers 1. Creating a Global Earth Observation System of Systems

2 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES INTRODUCTION

(GEOSS): Benefits for Environmental Forecasting Science and the Environment. 2. Creating a National Ecological Observatory Network Chapter 2 of this report contains the text of selected (NEON): Developing the Capacity for Ecological plenary lectures. Chapters 3 and 4 contain summaries of Forecasting plenary roundtable sessions and the four simultaneous 3. Environmental Change: An Interactive Discussion symposia. Chapter 5 contains recommendations generat- About the Future ed by participants in the 19 breakout sessions. Several 4. Engaging Users in Environmental Forecasting overarching recommendations emerged from these diverse sessions; these have been synthesized into a set of William D. Ruckelshaus, First and Fifth Administra- general conference recommendations in Chapter 6. tor of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, deliv- The need to improve environmental forecasting and ered the Fifth Annual John H. Chafee Memorial Lecture decisionmaking will present serious challenges for at NCSE’s 2005 National Conference. His lecture, researchers and policymakers in the future. The stake- Choosing Our Common Future: Democracy’s True Test, holders gathered at this conference made it clear that harkened back to his role as the U.S. representative on many individuals and institutions are striving to meet the Brundtland Commission that drafted the landmark these challenges. We hope that connections made and report Our Common Future (1987), which led to one of information shared at the 5th National Conference on the largest gatherings of world leaders in history at the Science, Policy and the Environment will catalyze new Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. NCSE has pub- ideas and partnerships needed to forecast environmental lished the text of Ruckelshaus’ lecture in a separate changes—for the people and ecosystems of today, and for report, which is the fifth in a series of books document- generations to come. ing the annual John H. Chafee Memorial Lecture on

Chapter 2

PLENARY ADDRESSES AND AWARDS

PLENARY ADDRESSES

James Gustave Speth, Some Say by Fire: Forecasting, Climate Change, and What We Can Do as Americans

Arden L. Bement, Jr., From New Sight to Foresight: The Long View on the Environment

Jack Dangermond, Building a Digital Abstraction of the Earth

LIFETIME ACHIEVEMENT AWARD

William D. Ruckelshaus, Choosing Our Common Future: Democracy’s True Test Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES PLENARY ADDRESSES AND AWARDS

Some Say by Fire: Forecasting, Climate Change, and What We Can Do as Americans James Gustave Speth Dean, Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies Former Administrator, United Nations Development Programme Founder and Former President, World Resources Institute

I must begin by say- My story begins when I was chair of the president’s ing how genuinely Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ). I was impressed I am by the approached by Gordon MacDonald, a top environmental rapid emergence of scientist, and Rafe Pomerance, then president of Friends our host, NCSE, to a of the Earth. They were seeking my help in calling wide position of true lead- attention to the climate change threat. I promised to take ership in environ- the matter to the president if they would prepare a sci- mental research, in entifically credible memorandum on the problem. It was environmental educa- not long before the report was on my desk, signed by tion, and in linking four distinguished American scientists—David Keeling, good science to envi- Roger Revelle, and George Woodwell, in addition to ronmental decision- MacDonald. Its contents were alarming. The report pre- making. We live in a dicted “a warming that will probably be conspicuous country where the within the next twenty years,” and it called for early scientific content of action: “Enlightened policies in the management of fos- public policy issues is sil fuels and forests can delay or avoid these changes, but increasing sharply. It follows that scientific literacy is the time for implementing the policies is fast passing.” essential to sustaining our democracy. We must therefore The year was 1979—a quarter of a century ago. work to ensure that NCSE and others that share its goals I presented the report to President Carter and oth- grow in strength and influence. ers in his administration. The administration responded I also commend the work you will be doing here to by asking the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) to design an integrated, science-based capacity for environ- assess the scientific basis for concern about man-made mental forecasting. I hope that work goes well. My talk climate change. Massachusetts Institute of Technology will focus on the morning after the forecast—what hap- scientist Jule Charney led the NAS review, and the pens to forecasts after they are offered. This is where my “Charney Report” was published in late 1979. Its find- bit of expertise lies, and I also believe that is where much ings supported those in the report I had received at of the problem lies in our country today. And I want to CEQ. The chair of the NAS’s Climate Research Board focus on climate change because I believe that climate summarized them: “The conclusions of this brief but change—or better, climate disruption—is the single intense investigation may be ... disturbing to policy- biggest threat societies face today. makers. If carbon dioxide continues to increase, the

6 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES PLENARY ADDRESSES AND AWARDS

study group finds no reason to doubt that climate has proceeded apace, climate change has begun in changes will result and no reason to believe that these earnest, and even optimistic projections forecast a lot changes will be negligible... A wait-and-see policy may more and a lot worse. mean waiting until it is too late.” One of the most comprehensive studies ever of the Of course, since these early beginnings, forecasting impact of climate change on a particular region is the climate change, as well as efforts to influence policy with 2005 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), spon- the results, have grown into a huge international enter- sored by the eight countries bordering the Arctic region prise, probably the largest ever such effort in the envi- and carried out by an international team of three hun- ronmental field. The Intergovernmental Panel on dred scientists. The report makes disturbing reading. Climate Change has been at the center of the activity, Here are some of the findings: and many of our federal agencies, our National Academy • The Arctic is warming much more rapidly than previ- of Sciences, and innumerable U.S. academic institutions ously known, at nearly twice the rate as the rest of the and research centers have been deeply involved. globe, and increasing greenhouse gases from human All this effort is at last yielding some significant, if activities are projected to make it warmer still. seriously belated, responses. The Kyoto Protocol goes • In Alaska, western Canada, and eastern Russia, average into effect this month thanks to the Russian ratification. winter temperatures have increased as much as 3oC to Most significant are the actions being taken by European 4oC in the past 50 years and are projected to rise 4oC governments, both through the European Union and to 7oC over the next 100 years. individually. • Arctic summer sea ice is projected to decline by at least A remarkable plan has been developed by the gov- 50 percent by the end of this century with some mod- ernment of Prime Minister Tony Blair in the United els showing near-complete disappearance of summer Kingdom, for example. The Blair government is commit- sea ice. This is very likely to have devastating conse- ted to a 60 percent reduction in U.K. greenhouse gas quences for some Arctic animal species such as ice-liv- (GHG) emissions by around 2050, has developed a plan ing seals and for local people for whom these animals of action to back it up, and estimates that the costs are a primary food source. would be “very small—equivalent in 2050 to just a small • Warming over Greenland is projected to lead to sub- fraction (0.5 to 2 percent) of the nation’s wealth, as stantial melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, con- measured by GDP, which by then will have tripled as tributing to global sea-level rise at increasing rates. compared to now.” Over the long term, Greenland contains enough melt One can only be encouraged by these developments water to eventually raise sea level by about 7 meters in Europe. Significant steps are also being taken by a (about 23 feet). number of major corporations and a fair portion of U.S. states. I will discuss these positive developments shortly. The report points out that Arctic developments They are contributing to a momentum that is building could affect societies far away from the region by con- and that offers hope. But if we are honest, I believe the tributing to sea level rise, adding to positive feedbacks only conclusion we can draw is that scientific efforts to that accelerate warming, and disrupting ocean currents. influence policy action and public opinion on climate Looking ahead, among the most widely accepted change have not had anything like the impact they projections of future fossil fuel use are those provided by should have had. the International Energy Agency (IEA). Its 2004 “refer- I say this for several reasons. First, despite the fact ence scenario,” a business-as-usual projection, has total that there have been credible forecasts and serious warn- world carbon dioxide emissions climbing by 62 percent ings from the scientific community for the better part of by 2030. This is about three times what we should toler- three decades, the buildup of GHG in the atmosphere ate if we want to protect climate.

7 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES PLENARY ADDRESSES AND AWARDS

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has ly and in the United States I think we must acknowledge developed a similar business-as-usual scenario for the that for decades we have thrown outstanding science, United States, looking ahead to 2025. It has both coal attractive policy analysis and prescriptions, innumerable use and CO2 emissions increasing in the United States warnings, and abundant data at a set of extremely seri- by about 42 percent between 2002 and 2025. Of course, ous global-scale environmental problems, with limited we should be reducing our emissions during this period, response. I think it is time to assess why this “rational- not increasing them. ist,” forever hopeful approach is not working better. I It would be one thing if, despite our failure to curb think we need to peel back the onion for deeper and emissions, we had in fact put in place adequate measures deeper understanding of the causes of this non-benign to reduce GHG emissions rapidly, starting soon. But alas, neglect. I suspect we will not like what we find. we have not done that either. The many inadequacies of Something is terribly, tragically wrong with the way the Kyoto Protocol are well known, and at the recent cli- the system works—doesn’t work—today. Let me take a mate negotiations, efforts to move the discussion beyond crack at some of what I think is wrong. It is an inade- Kyoto got nowhere. quate and incomplete analysis, but it is a start. Finally, there is the situation here in the United • First, the climate issue, like most global-scale environ- States. mental concerns, is very hard to communicate—it is The current administration has opposed the Kyoto technical, longterm, and chronic rather than acute. Protocol and refused to work with the international • Second, the results of scientific research and forecasts community within the framework of the U.N. climate on climate generally reach an exceedingly small audi- treaty. It had opposed the McCain-Lieberman climate bill ence. I read Science and Nature every week, and for as well as efforts to treat carbon dioxide as a pollutant years now there has been an outpouring of newswor- under the Clean Air Act and to strengthen vehicle thy results regarding climate. But these results—often mileage standards, and it has pursued an anti-climate startling in their significance—rarely if ever make it energy strategy while resisting international efforts to beyond Science and Nature. We simply lack the frame renewable energy goals. And this is also true: the arrangements needed to ensure that good climate sci- Clinton Administration did surprisingly little on the cli- ence gets to the public. Related to this problem is the mate issue in its eight years in office. well-known reluctance of scientists to speak out and Almost as distressing is the state of U.S. public opin- get engaged in policy and public debates. I know that ion on climate change. In 2003, Gallup reported that many scientists believe they have spoken up and even global warming was “a bit of a yawn” to most Americans. spoken out, but I would argue that the scientific voice Last year it reported that the public is “practically doz- has been exceedingly modest compared to both the ing.” The percentage of Americans who worry “a great potential and the need. And then there is the dis- deal” or a “fair amount” about the “greenhouse effect” or turbingly low environmental and energy literacy of the global warming slipped seven points between 2003 and public, as measured, for example, by the repeated sur- 2004, from 58 percent to 51 percent. Nearly as many veys of the National Environmental Education and Americans (47 percent) now say they worry “only a lit- Testing Foundation. tle” or “not at all” about the issue. As a result, global • Next, the natural carriers of science’s messages to the warming ranks near the bottom of the list of specific public and into the policy process—the NGOs and the environmental issues for which Gallup measured public media—have not given the climate issue the urgent opinion. priority that it deserves. For many environmental In short, it would seem that some of the best scien- groups it is one priority on a long list; for some it is not tific and policy analysis ever done on any subject has a priority at all. Meanwhile the media, when it gets failed to generate sufficient response both international- around to the climate story at all, is afflicted with bal-

8 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES PLENARY ADDRESSES AND AWARDS

ance-itis—striving to give equal treatment to the other ronment must recognize that we are in a struggle over side of the story when in fact it may deserve little or no our core values as Americans and over our vision for the attention. International comparisons of the media have future. We’ve got to communicate in ways that appeal to shown that U.S. news reports on climate tend to treat the heart as well as the head and speak to peoples’ values the issue as more uncertain, controversial, and theo- and aspirations as well as their intellects. In other words, retical than coverage in other countries. if we want people to listen to the science, we’ve got to • Fourth, even when the first three hurtles are crossed, approach them in a very different way. there is the skilled opposition from various economic Another issue gaining prominence—actually it is a and ideological interests. This ranges all the way from very old issue—is religion trumping science. The ways charlatans claiming that climate change is a hoax to religion impacts receptivity to science-based forecasts is traditional energy industry lobbying—which is going complex and cannot be quickly described, certainly not on at least three climate fronts in the Congress today. by me. Religious organizations have been at the forefront Along the way, the energy industry and others have of environmental causes in America for a long time. orchestrated skillful media advertising campaigns such One of the most powerful statements supporting as the one against the Kyoto Protocol and the more action on climate, “Earth’s Climate Embraces Us All,” recent one promoting coal. was organized by the National Religious Partnership for the Environment and signed by leaders of most religions These factors might be thought of as the conven- and Christian denominations, including the National tional reasons why good science is not heard and heed- Association of Evangelicals. Evangelicals for the ed. But beyond these barriers to action lie some newer Environment is an important source of leadership on cli- and less conventional ones. For example, the environ- mate and other issues. So we must be cautious about mental community is being charged with not treating the generalizations and oversimplifying complex phenome- climate issue in the right way. The authors of The Death na. But there is another side. Many among the one-third of Environmentalism put it this way: of Americans that are evangelical Christians perceive lib- erals and scientists as contemptuous of their beliefs. Over the last 15 years environmental foun- Some see science as a threat or at least as a challenge. The dations and organizations have invested hun- New York Times reported in 2003 that “Americans are dreds of million of dollars into combating three times as likely to believe in the Virgin Birth of Jesus global warming. We have strikingly little to (83 percent) as in evolution (28 percent).” Some show for it... Christian fundamentalists believe—as did former [Environmental leaders are not] articulating Interior Secretary James Watt—that we are living in the a vision of the future commensurate with the End Time, so that the long-term environmental future of magnitude of the crisis. Instead they are pro- the planet as we know it is not a concern. Politically moting technical policy fixes like pollution active groups associated with the Christian Right sup- controls and higher vehicle mileage stan- port a good many Washington political figures who have dards—proposals that provide neither the pop- very low ratings from the League of Conservation Voters. ular inspiration nor the political alliances the All of this suggests that good environmental sci- community needs to deal with the problem. ence and forecasting are absolutely necessary but far, far from sufficient. If we want forecasting to affect real- I worry that these criticisms get close to blaming the world events, we need strategies to address the issues victim. The part of this argument to which I subscribe is I have just catalogued, and probably others. I think that sound science and rational analysis are not enough such strategies can be identified, and we should get to carry the day, and that all of us concerned about envi- busy with this task soon. Perhaps that can be the next

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NCSE project. There is much to be done: A serious 2. Carrots and sticks with business. effort at environmental education in America. A major The good news here is that many corporations are media-based public education effort like those on not waiting on federal action on climate and are taking smoking, AIDS, drugs, and drunk driving. A science- significant, voluntary initiatives to reduce their GHG led organization devoted exclusively to using all tools emissions. They are doing it because the anticipate they available to get climate science before the public. The will be regulated one day, because of shareholder pres- creation of a bipartisan national commission to make sure, because of public image campaigns and consumer recommendations for U.S. policy on global-scale envi- pressure, because of lawsuits or the threat of liability for ronmental challenges. Let’s build this agenda and damages, because of pressure from insurers and lenders, move it forward. and in many cases because they know it is the responsi- In the meanwhile, we Americans have a job to do. ble thing to do. We are tragically late in addressing climate change; These factors have combined to bring forth some irreparable damage will unfold in the decades ahead due impressive action by leading companies. Our strategy to our past negligence. Our responsibility now is to pre- regarding business should be to escalate on all those vent the situation from deteriorating further. That, at fronts that recognize and reward positive performance least, we owe our children and grandchildren. by business as well as those that put serious pressure on Fortunately, the outlines of a climate strategy are vis- business to reduce emissions. ible, in part because of the good efforts already being made to move our country in the right directions. What 3. Greening the financial sector. follows is a ten-point plan of action that builds on the The financial and insurance sectors are waking up to many positive, encouraging initiatives already under way. climate risks. It is estimated that socially responsible investment portfolios in the United States now exceed $2 1. State and local action. trillion. Institutional investors, large lenders, and insur- With the path forward blocked in Washington, ers are becoming increasingly sensitized to financial states and localities across the country have moved to fill risks (and opportunities) presented by climate change. the breach. Twenty-eight states have developed or are Investors large and small should use shareholder res- developing action plans to reduce greenhouse gas olutions and negotiations to pressure companies to (GHG) emissions. Many of these, such as the programs improve climate-risk disclosure and to take risk-reducing in Massachusetts and Oregon, focus on reducing GHG actions. The Securities and Exchange Commission emissions from power plants. Other states, such as should require companies to disclose fully the financial Connecticut and New Jersey, have more ambitious legis- risks of global warming. Mutual fund managers and other lation that seeks to reduce overall emissions in the state. investment managers should be pressed to develop cli- New York aims to have 25 percent of its power from mate-risk competence and to support climate-risk disclo- renewables by 2013. California has taken the lead in reg- sure and action at companies in which they are investing. ulating GHGs from vehicles. Our goal in the years immediately ahead should be 4. A sensible national energy strategy. to strengthen and deepen state and local commitments National energy legislation will be on the congres- and actions. We should work to get every state to adopt sional agenda in the period immediately ahead. It is an overall GHG reduction plan, a renewable energy port- essential that the results move us strongly into a low-car- folio standard, the California plan for vehicles, and an bon future. energy efficiency program that covers everything from It is now customary for pro-business publications much tighter building codes to transportation and land- like the Economist and Business Week to urge adoption of use planning. sensible energy policies for the United States. In August

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2004, they were joined by Fortune, which suggested four 7. Climate-friendly cooperation U.S. initiatives: (1) improve fuel economy through sub- with developing countries. sidizing hybrids, cutting oil and gas subsidies, and With China’s emissions now already half of the applying the gas-guzzler tax to SUVs; (2) ramp up United States’ and Asian emissions almost equal to ours, spending on alternative fuels, including hydrogen and future agreements under the climate treaty should pro- biofuels, (3) redouble our commitment to energy effi- vide for developing country commitments on climate ciency, taking advantage of our position as the Saudi and GHGs. Such agreements need not seek (yet) actual Arabia of energy waste to wring more and more produc- reduction in GHG emissions from the developing world tion out of each unit of energy; and (4) get serious about as a whole. They should, however, vigorously promote solar and wind power. We must hope the U.S. business measures to achieve rapid decreases in developing-coun- community is listening to its own best thinkers. try GHG releases per unit of GDP or, as it is sometimes Our goal in this area must be national energy legis- put, reductions in the carbon intensity of production. lation that moves strongly forward along these lines, To support these efforts, the international communi- putting the United States squarely on the road to a low- ty, including the World Bank and others, should launch carbon economy. major new programs. Such programs should include large-scale capacity building assistance, urgent transfer 5. Enact McCain-Lieberman. of green technology, programs to link access to low-cost The McCain-Lieberman bill is modest by interna- capital to climate-friendly investments, expanded incen- tional standards, seeking only to cut U.S. greenhouse gas tives to encourage international investment in climate- emissions to 2000 levels by 2010, but it is the best hope supporting projects, country-specific North-South com- of getting the United States on the path to emissions pacts to reverse tropical deforestation, and lighter tariffs reduction. The bill garnered 43 votes in the Senate in and improved economic access to countries complying 2003, and Senators McCain and Lieberman are deter- with climate agreements, as the European Union has mined to keep pushing. proposed. Our goal here must be to build broader public support—from business, universities, religious organiza- 8. Climate-friendly consumers tions, the conservation community, and elsewhere—to and institutions. get McCain-Lieberman passed into law, and the sooner Mahatma Gandhi told us to “Be the change you want the better. to see in the world.” We can each do our part to reduce our own carbon emissions. Individually, it is satisfying; 6. Hands across the seas. collectively, if a lot of us get moving, it’s significant. The signers of the Kyoto Protocol, now including We can each do our part every day as climate-con- Russia, represent an international coalition that can press scious consumers, and we can urge the adoption of the United States to start a credible program of GHG tougher building codes, appliance efficiency standards, emissions reduction and join the climate treaty process and mileage standards; better mass transit; and much with other nations. European advocates of trade sanc- else. Also, we need a clear, accurate system of “climate- tions and other measures aimed at the United States are friendly” labeling. Some have proposed the idea of a cer- not going away. The European Union could also invite tification program for “climate-neutral products.” U.S. states to participate in its cap-and-trade GHG mar- What if all American colleges and universities joined ket. If it is too late for the United States to comply strict- in a commitment to reduce their GHG emissions impres- ly with the Kyoto Protocol, it is certainly not too late for sively below 1990 levels by 2015 or 2020? What if all us to begin rapidly down that path and catch up during U.S. religious organizations made a similar commit- the more ambitious post-2012 phase of GHG reductions. ment? And all fraternal organizations? And all environ-

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mental, consumer, civil rights, and other organizations ments and corporations, and taking steps as consumers with commitments to the public interest such as private and communities to realize sustainability in everyday foundations? All hospitals? life. There is much to be done to increase public aware- We can make a big difference by getting the institu- ness and build such a movement. I hope some of the tions with which we are associated to take climate action, grassroots networks that grew in the election campaign starting locally, then expanding regionally and nationally. of 2004 will turn their attention to building awareness and action on climate. Religious organizations have a big 9. Limits on coal. role here, too, as the National Religious Partnership for In November 2004 The New York Times reported the Environment is already proving. The entertainment that plans were being laid to construct 118 coal-fired industry and the media need to do far more. power plants in 36 U.S. states. American coal use is pro- Scientists can no longer content themselves with jected to go up by more than 40 percent over the next publishing and lecturing. Only the scientific community twenty years. has the credibility to take the climate issue to the public A measure of the wastefulness of U.S. electricity and to the politicians, but with some notable exceptions, consumption is that, while the United States consumes it has not been as outspoken as it should be. That must about 45 percent more energy and electricity than the change. Otherwise, I do not see how we can convince European Union, our GDP is only about 5 percent high- enough people. The various intellectual and policy com- er than the European Union’s, measured by purchasing munities—such as the foreign policy, consumer, and power. The capacity for the United States to grow by social policy communities—should come out of their using existing energy inputs more efficiently is huge. Yet, silos (we’re all in silos) and take up this cause. instead of moving in that direction, plans are being laid Climate disruption is too important to be left only to to do the worst possible thing we could do climate- the environmentalists. If the environmental community wise—launch a new generation of more than a hundred could have won this fight without you, it would have coal-fired power plants without plans for capturing and done so already. And someone should build an initiative storing the carbon. among those who voted for President Bush to communi- We will need a combination of national, state, and cate to the president that they did not vote for his ener- local efforts to ensure that climate and other environ- gy or climate policies. mental risks are taken into account in decisions regard- We need to build the movement. If we do, we will ing new coal plants. National, state, and local environ- not fail. Changing U.S. energy and climate policies has mental and public health groups can collaborate in such proven extremely difficult in the face of powerful indus- a strategy. In Congress, the prospect of all these coal try opposition. That is why a powerful popular move- plants should spur (with enough local backing) the so- ment for change is so essential. I am reminded in this called four-pollutants bill, which would regulate not context of Teddy Roosevelt’s words: only sulfur, nitrogen, and mercury from power plants but also carbon dioxide. “Here is your country— Do not let anyone take it or its glory away from you 10. A movement of concerned citizens. Do not let selfish men or greedy interests skim More than anything else we need a new movement Your country of its beauty, its riches or its romance. bringing together a wide array of civic, scientific, envi- The world and the future and your very children shall ronmental, religious, student, and other organizations Judge you according as you deal with this sacred trust.” with enlightened business leaders, concerned families, and engaged communities, networked together, protest- I thank you. ing, demanding action and accountability from govern-

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From New Sight to Foresight: The Long View on the Environment Arden L. Bement, Jr. Director, National Science Foundation

I would like to thank role in environmental research and education. James Renick, Chan- At NSF we embrace three aspects of environment: cellor of North Caro- the natural, social, and constructed environments. lina A&T State Univer- Insights into all three comprise our ability to perceive, sity, for introducing and to provide for, our future. me today. I know Dr. I have also mentioned “new sight”—by which I Renick as a visionary mean the expanded vision bestowed by vast observa- leader who has worked tional networks and breakthroughs in sensors. to enhance his univer- Development of these tools is part and parcel of our abil- sity in multiple ways, ity to foresee. whether through elec- Then there is the “long view.” Some of you will be tronic infrastructure, familiar with NSF’s Long-Term Ecological Research new facilities, or the Program (LTER), now celebrating its 25th anniversary. interdisciplinary cur- But how many have heard of the Long-Term Ecological riculum. He has also Reflection Program? A participant in this Oregon State been a visionary in University venture, essayist Robert Michael Pyle, con- providing leadership among a cluster of research templated beauty and decomposition at an LTER site HBCUs—Historically Black Colleges and Universities— deep in a forest of the Pacific Northwest. Musing over to build capacity in graduate research. the unhurried pace of decay and regeneration in the for- It is my privilege to address the National Council for est, he observed that “Most of us take the short-term Science and the Environment and all participants here view, most of the time.” today. Our topic—forecasting environmental changes— The long view, Pyle noted, “requires faith in the ranks as one of the grand challenges facing scientists, future—even if you won’t be there to see it for yourself.” engineers, policymakers and concerned citizens in our In NSF’s approach to the environment, we are constant- time. Fundamental research on the environment has ly stretching that view, across disciplines, across time great promise to contribute in myriad ways to our nation and across space. and our world. For almost two decades, NSF has supported major, The title of my talk is From New Sight to Foresight: cross-disciplinary efforts on the environment, ranging The Long View on the Environment. This sums up our from global change—initially focused on physical sci- evolving vision of environmental research and engineer- ence—to biocomplexity in the environment, grounded ing at the National Science Foundation. in biological science but involving all disciplines. Foresight means the “perception of the significance Today we look at the grand challenges in environ- and nature of events before they have occurred.” Another mental sciences posed by the National Research Council, definition is “care in providing for the future; prudence.” and we all involve people. This is a bellwether, a recog- Both definitions inform the National Science Foundation’s nition that the environment has a human dimension,

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and it is critical. Today the biggest challenge in taking minutes of the earthquake, data flashed via satellite and the long view is to integrate the social sciences into envi- the Internet to the GSN Data Center and beyond. ronmental investigations. The Incorporated Research Institutions for In the early days of Earth observation from the air, a Seismology (IRIS)—the GSN’s parent body—has pro- camera aboard a balloon captured images of San moted a policy of international openness about seismo- Francisco, devastated by the 1906 earthquake. New esti- logical data. NSF has supported the GSN for 20 years— mates of lives lost there have expanded from the tradi- and this singular earthquake was the “canonical event” it tional toll of a few hundred to at least 3,000, because was set up to record. many single women and immigrants who died were not Geophysicists will be making discoveries based on counted. The official count was kept low so as not to these recordings for some time. At the same time, the slow the pace of rebuilding. GSN could serve as part of the foundation to expand our It is chilling how much old images of the 1906 San capability for tsunami warning in many areas of the Francisco earthquake resemble recent images of the world. Such systems also vitally need social and organi- destruction wrought by the Sumatra earthquake and zational components, linking geophysics with social sci- tsunami of December 26, 2004. Turning to this recent ence to benefit society. event, one of the most lethal environmental disasters What about the “constructed” dimension of envi- in human history, of almost Biblical proportions, I ronment? The Network for Earthquake Engineering would like to outline how NSF views its environmen- Simulation (NEES) is dedicated to the grand challenge of tal portfolio. preventing earthquake disasters. NEES facilities will The earthquake and tsunami have heightened simulate earthquakes and study how infrastructure and awareness in the engineering and science research com- materials perform during seismic events. munities of their responsibility to create new knowledge Cyber-tools, such as the Web and grid computing, about our human and organizational institutions, eco- will enable unprecedented real-time, virtual and tele- logical systems, the constructed environment, and about presence collaboration. One network node, Oregon State our vulnerability in the face of natural catastrophes. University’s tsunami research facility, is the largest such Much attention is being paid by the media and else- facility in the world. where—and rightfully so—to the need for improved Natural hazards researchers traveled to Sumatra warning-buoy systems in the oceans. within weeks of the disaster before cleanup and recon- The undersea earthquake that set off the tsunami struction could obliterate vital data. Information on has gotten less attention. Yet this rare magnitude 9 earth- physical damage, and on how people responded, helps quake was the largest since the Alaskan earthquake of us to improve not just the stability of buildings and 1964. The Sumatran earthquake released approximately infrastructure, but also the capabilities of communities as much energy as all global earthquakes in the period to protect themselves. Engineers are working alongside from 1976 to 2004 combined. The earthquake set the social scientists to assess physical damage as well as the Earth ringing like a bell—an oscillation that will contin- social and economic impacts. ue for a month, at least. In fact, NSF has over 30 years of experience in pro- NSF’s vision of environmental research is a troika of viding research support for quick-response studies fol- investigations into the natural, constructed, and social lowing disasters. environments. In the first realm, the Global Seismo- The devastation in Sumatra and Sri Lanka only rein- graphic Network (GSN) is the primary international forces the need to take the long view on environmental source of data for locating earthquakes and warning of research. The transformation in scientific tools is helping tsunamis. The GSN is funded by the National Science us to do this—to obtain observations across the disci- Foundation and the U.S. Geological Survey. Within eight plines that are unprecedented in quality, detail, and scope.

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Evolving in concert with the new tools are different Modeling is the flipside of observation—also essen- ways of doing science, such as collaboration across large, tial for environmental forecasting. One model of the car- multidisciplinary, often multinational teams. These new bon cycle for North America predicts that a warming cli- modes of working are the only way to meet the scientif- mate will enhance photosynthesis and production of car- ic challenges of our era. bon dioxide. The “carbon-only dynamics” indicates that The “collaboratories” employ embedded sensors in the ecosystem will store less carbon in that scenario. large grids, synthesis of massive datasets, and computa- That is the prevailing wisdom, anyway. tional models of complex behavior. We see these pat- However, preliminary results indicate that once the terns whether the topic of investigation is earthquakes, nitrogen-cycle model is integrated along with the carbon ecological systems, oceans, or even gravitational waves. model, North America shifts from adding carbon to Although observational capability for human activi- absorbing it. ty has been more limited, we are looking to identify new In any case, we do not currently have the computing ways to integrate such variables as population distribu- capability to run this model. Forecasting calls for having tions, utilities, transportation flows, and risk perception. observations, models, and the right processes plugged Planning is under way for ocean observatories. They into in the model. will take targeted samples and measure multiple factors In the polar regions, a major global investigation over space and time. For example, it will be possible to will take place during the International Polar Year (IPY) have instruments take samples automatically when trig- of 2007-2008. A U.S. facility already in place at the gered by actual events. North Pole exemplifies how we are seeking to character- A number of institutions are banding together to ize the environment at the extremes of the planet. This create a prototype grid of wireless and optical networks facility is exploring the little-known Arctic Ocean. to link oceanographers to ocean observatories off the A research camp on the sea ice at the North Pole has coasts of Mexico, the United States, and Canada. an oceanographic mooring beneath. The mooring Another example from the geosciences is a compo- stretches more than 2.5 miles down and is anchored to nent of the EarthScope program. An observatory, newly the sea floor beneath the ice. It is hung with instruments installed three kilometers down in California’s San tracking ocean parameters to create a benchmark to Andreas Fault, is now probing one of the world’s most track fast-moving Arctic change. Unlike in Antarctica, active faults. A drill has burrowed down through the which has no native peoples, human populations in the granite beneath Parkfield, California—puncturing the Arctic are already grappling with this rapid change. fault like a soda straw. Sensors lining the tunnel will be The polar regions comprise about a third of the able to search—for the first time—for signals that could Earth’s surface—and they influence what happens every- alert us to a major earthquake. where else. Some potential focus areas for NSF during Ecology is another discipline developing a blueprint the IPY are: for a network that will span the continent and beyond. • Arctic climate change research, including building an We know that biodiversity is changing across the United Arctic Observation System that involves the Arctic States. We know that human activities are changing the peoples; geographic distribution of some basic elements of life, • Ice sheet dynamics; and such as nitrogen and phosphorous. We’ve seen an infec- • Studies of life in the cold and dark. tious disease like West Nile Virus emerge locally and We are looking for ways to link U.S. scientists with then spread across the entire country. counterparts in other nations for collaborative IPY The National Ecological Observatory Network efforts, and planning is underway around the world. (NEON) will support fundamental biological research We have seen examples of observatories now being into such questions on a continent-wide scale. planned or under construction. Longstanding sites in our

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Long-Term Ecological Research program provide case ing a typhoon—a quick, episodic event— would have examples of how environmental research has evolved at been missed without the autonomous sensors in place. NSF. This program supports scientists and students Before the typhoon, the lake waters were well-strat- studying processes over long periods and across broad ified by temperature. When the typhoon hit, the waters, scales. It now extends to marine sites, the Antarctic, nutrients and plankton communities essentially “mixed” urban areas, and even to agricultural ecosystems. or turned over. A day-and-a-half later, the waters were It wasn’t always that way. The LTER network was stratified again. If sensors had not been in place to cap- first conceived as a research program at isolated, pristine ture this turnover, its occurrence would never have been sites. Now we recognize that all ecosystems lie on a gra- known. Even though physical access to remote sites is dient from “near-pristine” to “highly engineered,” or limited, sensors can still record key events. even “constructed.” Being able to observe at different scales—because Today, an LTER site in the City of Baltimore investi- environmental processes operate differently at various gates an urban ecosystem, and studies include social and levels—is also critical for forecasting. The grid scale economic factors. “For ecologists this is really a new needed to answer regional to continental questions is not thing,” says Grace Brush, one of the participating ecolo- currently possible with today’s cyberinfrastructure. gists. “Humans were something to be avoided. For me, at As we develop observation systems, environmental least, it has changed my thinking—to look at humans as and cyber-scientists must closely integrate efforts. As part of the natural system.” LTER scientist Tim Kratz of the University of Wisconsin LTER scientists are now working on creating a true comments, “We need to develop scalable infrastructure network. They are beginning to probe overarching ques- that allows easy inclusion of additional sites—and ways tions that draw upon a number of sites. Eventually the of handling data on that scale as well.” LTER network will be connected to the other networks I On Panama’s Barro Colorado Island, advanced ani- have mentioned. mal sensing is being used to explore the ecosystem. An The sites are evolving from a local focus to an ori- antenna tower picks up signals from wild animals wear- entation toward national research priorities and shared ing radio collars. The networked towers send data resources. One prime aim has become to enable ecologi- directly to the Internet. A motion-sensitive camera in cal forecasting. LTER scientists are recognizing that they the forest recorded an ocelot preying upon a rodent, can pursue very fundamental environmental and ecolog- called an agouti. As the camera captured the culprit, the ical research—and make valuable contributions to soci- radio-signal from the agouti’s collar showed the time of ety by doing so. death. Biotelemetry, in fact, is now letting us track ani- The LTER program has also cultivated a strong syn- mals down to the size of large insects on scales of hun- ergy between research and education. Scientists, teachers dreds of miles. and students at the Niwot Ridge site in Colorado pro- Nature offers plenty of cues to improving how—and duced a book entitled My Water Comes From the what—we sense. Wasps, for example, are extremely sensi- Mountains. This book explores the water source for the tive and can detect a wide variety of odors. Wasps have city of Boulder and features brilliant watercolors by been trained to be attracted to a compound produced by a third-graders. fungus that infects plants. The wasps are under study as Our tools and methodologies often change our per- models to detect environmental stress. One potential ception of what we are studying. A revolution in envi- application might be in agriculture. A farmer might ronmental sensors is already underway. Researchers at release them in a field to detect a fungal infection in crops. one LTER site—a Wisconsin lake—have teamed up with As we consider how to make a compelling case for counterparts at a lake in Taiwan. Both lakes are fitted how fundamental research on the environment meets crit- with sensors. The metabolism of the Taiwanese lake dur- ical national needs, incorporating the human scale is the

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latest challenge. NSF programs like Coupled Human and ronment” in this part of the world. We see the stark Natural Systems, and Human and Social Dynamics, are truth: Where there is water, there is life. ways to explore and expand that different sort of “long I spoke at the beginning about taking the long view view.” NSF’s advisory committee for the environment has on the environment, exploring from the nano- to the created a blueprint, Complex Environmental Systems, pro- global-scale. The ultimate goal for all of the observation viding the outlines of our environmental directions. The systems—stemming from different disciplines, crossing committee also continues to define new, unifying areas of a breadth of scales, based on the revolution in sensing— focus for research and education, such as water. is to link up these systems with cyberinfrastructure. Social science provides insights on how people per- Our nation is strongly committed to developing an ceive problems as they interact with the natural environ- integrated and sustainable Global Earth Observation ment. Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University System of Systems—an important U.S. administration observed that concerns about storm damage are far more priority, and an effort including 55 nations thus far. The important to coastal dwellers than are long-term sea- United States has developed a strategic plan for our level rises associated with climate change. Substantial nation’s contribution. early damage from large, infrequent storms generally dis- A saying, purportedly from a Swedish army manual, couraged rebuilding in vulnerable areas. However, more comes to mind: “If the terrain and the map do not agree, frequent storms causing minor damage tended not to follow the terrain.” With global observation capability, discourage homeowners from repairing property—even with cyberinfrastructure, with contributions from across though damage over the long run often exceeded the the disciplines, and with our national needs as a frame- value of the property. work, we are indeed poised to follow the terrain. Speaking of water and human settlement, satellite Fundamental research to chart the environment of this images of the most ancient area of human civilization, planet shared by all nations contributes to the security of the Nile Valley, show a thin ribbon of inhabitable green us all. running through the desert below the Aswan Dam and Lake Nasser, exemplifying how the natural, the con- Thank you. structed, and the social systems truly encompass “envi-

17 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES PLENARY ADDRESSES AND AWARDS

Building a Digital Abstraction of the Earth Jack Dangermond Founder and President, ESRI

The vision of building modeling; and geoprocessing. These are all making a digital abstraction of advances, not just in geography but in all sciences. the Earth involves the GIS is also being used as a framework and process to creation of an evolving apply geospatial information to a host of applications. system for measuring, This framework allows us to observe, measure, and ana- monitoring, modeling, lyze, then plan and take action. As a result, GIS is help- planning, and managing us create the future by integrating information from ing the planet. Such an many sources. abstraction would sup- Geography is increasingly being seen as a frame- port science and work for understanding patterns, relationships, and improve our ability to processes at all scales, not just the whole globe but also forecast environmental our neighborhoods, watersheds, cities, states, and changes. More impor- nations. It is a framework for thinking about things, tantly—by linking sci- modeling the future, visualizing, and integrating and ref- ence with planning and action—it would affect the plan- erencing what we know. et’s evolution. Geography is very broadly defined to include social, In building a digital Earth, it is useful to consider cultural, economic, political, physical, and biological Geographic Information Systems (GIS) as an emerging subjects. Over the years, geographers have developed language for abstracting and communicating many formal concepts and principles that build on the geography—the content and processes of the Earth. concept of place and are used to create geographic Perhaps this language could be thought about as creating knowledge. These include a number of formal concepts, a conversation about our future. theories, and methods. GIS has embodied many of these We use many languages to describe our world. They principles and concepts into its fundamental technology, reflect our experiences. They include written, visual, and and as a result, GIS has become an instrument for software languages; mathematics; statistics; music; art; extending and applying geographic knowledge. and others. These formal languages also help us organize GIS as a language integrates information. It also how we see the world. We use them to record and integrates our work, organizations, and disciplines and is describe what we know. They support our thinking and a crosscutting tool to help us make decisions. The GIS conceptualization. They help us communicate ideas, and language is helping us build geographic knowledge. It is in so doing, they also help us collaborate. Languages are a system for connecting things, communicating, and col- also living—evolving and expanding in response to a laborating—the very things I believe the world needs. changing world. Over the years, there has been a steady advancement Geography is the science of our world. GIS intro- in GIS technology (e.g., data modeling, spatial analysis, duces new concepts and methods to geography—con- data management, cartography, and visualization). This cepts of complex data modeling, interactive mapping, evolution has been associated with advances in comput- and integrating data and spatial analysis; visualization; ing technology, improvements in spatial measurement

18 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES PLENARY ADDRESSES AND AWARDS

(e.g., remote sensing and GPS), growth in geographic ability to easily abstract and share process models, work information science, and the invention and enhance- flows, and related scripts. These abstractions are compa- ments of GIS software technology. rable to weeks, months, and even years of valuable per- GIS builds on the two fundamental parts of geogra- sonal knowledge about GIS and geography. phy: the descriptive content and process. We use GIS to Sharing models not only saves time but also allows describe geography with data sets, data models, and us to share knowledge across disciplines and among dif- maps. Process geography is described with models of ferent organizations. GIS professionals are increasingly how geography changes (e.g., models of erosion, flood- able to leverage one another’s knowledge in a crosscut- ing, vegetation growth and change, and urbanization). ting and collaborative environment. Yet, organizing this In the early years, GIS focused primarily on content geographic knowledge is only in its beginning stages. automation with simple geographic methods of area Technological advances in Web services, GIS portals, and measurement, numeric and statistical processing of data, mobile computing are providing a platform for dissemi- and mapping. As technology advanced, GIS incorporat- nating geographic knowledge to a much wider audience. ed many concepts of spatial analysis and modeling that GIS technology will ultimately expand to be a fundamen- have enabled new science, thinking, and applications to tal way of exchanging our geographic experiences and emerge—creating new knowledge. Today, it is safe to say, knowledge among all levels of society and in all fields. the science of geography and GIS technology are coe- Recent advances in GIS are providing a systematic volving and synergistic. framework for organizing, sharing, and combining many It is also important to note that GIS technology has different types of geographic knowledge. Just as words spread geographic principles far beyond geography. GIS can make sentences that can be organized into para- is now used in virtually all sciences that use spatial loca- graphs that tell stories, the basic GIS building blocks of tion as a factor in their discipline. GIS has also provided data, data models, process and work flow models, maps a framework for applying geographic thinking into many and globes, and metadata are being assembled and used fields, including almost every aspect of government, to describe our past and the present, as well as to help us business, and education. create the future condition of our planet. Also, GIS technology has led to much sharing of geo- As important as it is to describe the actual world graphic data and related knowledge between and among using GIS and geography, I think it’s far more important disciplines and application areas. In geographic problem to use GIS to imagine a better world. Languages help us solving, GIS is providing a common language for collabo- define what’s possible. ration. Examples of applications include weather forecast- GIS is a new language. It encompasses many oppor- ing, hydrological modeling and flood analysis, coastal tunities for us to advance science, design with nature in mapping, marine ecosystem monitoring, web publishing mind, make communities livable, increase efficiency, of the National Map, ground water modeling, water secu- support economic development, improve human health, rity plans, disaster modeling and response, emergency and mitigate conflicts. environmental response, forest management, land use GIS is especially well designed and suited for imagin- change, urban systems modeling, habitat modeling and ing our future. Actually, I think it’s essential. Empowering restoration, analyzing human health and the environment, geography with a language—GIS—will help us create a global food forecasting, improving agricultural productivi- better future. GIS is becoming intelligent and collaborative. ty, social analysis and poverty, and nature conservation. Connecting GIS into the societal infrastructure of the Web Initially, GIS has allowed sharing of basic data sets will lead to widespread collaboration, will bring about a among and between GIS professionals and applications. better understanding, and will allow us to create a better As GIS has become more intelligent, we introduced the future. The vision of creating a digital abstraction of the concept of model encapsulation. This allows users the Earth must be supported if we are to survive as a society.

19 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES PLENARY ADDRESSES AND AWARDS

NCSE LIFETIME ACHIEVEMENT AWARD PRESENTED TO: William D. Ruckelshaus First and Fifth Administrator U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

From introduction by H. Jeffrey Leonard, President and CEO, Global Environment Fund

With diplomatic skill, strong commitment to democratic process, and more than a little wit and charm, Bill has over many decades been at the forefront of efforts, at home and abroad, to bring rational, science-based thinking to the task of addressing difficult environmental challenges. Ladies and gentlemen, it is a great honor for me to present to Bill Ruckelshaus the 2005 NCSE Lifetime Achievement Award for his distinguished career, in both the public and private sectors, as a tireless advocate for balanced, pragmatic, broadly supported, and sustainable solutions to vital environmental and conservation issues facing this country and, indeed, this planet.

The following remarks are excerpts from the Fifth Annual John H. Chafee Memorial Lecture on Science and the Environment delivered by William D. Ruckelshaus on February 3, 2005. NCSE has published the complete text of Ruckelshaus’ lecture in a separate report, which is the fifth in a series of books documenting the annual John H. Chafee Memorial Lecture on Science and the Environment. Choosing Our Common Future: Democracy’s True Test

When the first wave of environmental concern swept America in the late 1960s and early 1970s under a Republican President and Democratic Congress, we passed massive laws controlling air pollution, water pollution, pesticides, radiation, toxic substances, and even solid waste—some 10 laws during the 1970s. We put in place a national system of restraints controlling the unwanted actions and substances. Yes, I said a system of restraints— laws, rules, regulations, even cultural restraints. Proper restraints voted on by freely elected officials are the

20 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES PLENARY ADDRESSES AND AWARDS

essence of freedom. Let me quote from a speech deliv- cides and toxic substances that were largely uncon- ered forty years ago by Chief Judge Barett Prettyman of trolled prior to the 1970s. the U.S. Court of Appeals at the Pentagon in honor of Of course our work is not complete. Protecting the Law Day: environment is not like building a highway or painting a In an ordered society of mankind there is building. You can’t do it and walk away from further no such thing as unlicensed liberty, either work. You must stay everlastingly at it, or things begin to of nations or individuals. Liberty itself is slide. By any measure, we have made enormous progress, inherently a composite of restraints. It and that should give us hope as we tackle the next set of dies when restraints are withdrawn. issues. However, having responded to the first set of Restraints are the substance without environmental concerns—the smell, touch, and feel which liberty does not exist. They are the kinds of problems—that gave rise to the first wave of essence of liberty... public outcry, we have been facing a second set of issues In one sense, freedom is the absence of governmen- where our “system of restraints” and our “essence of tal restraint—unwarranted governmental restraints freedom” have not been nearly as successful.... such as inhibitions of free speech, or the right to wor- Increasingly for many of our environment and natu- ship or to a jury trial for the accused. Those individual ral resource problems, we are seeking to resolve them by freedoms and many more are granted to us under the the use of collaborative processes. Bill of Rights. Since the early 1980s, collaborative decisionmaking The freedom our environmental laws are addressing processes have risen spontaneously and in increasing is reflected in our collective obligation to order our activ- numbers throughout the country. In some cases, the goal ities so that our society will flourish—so that it will work. was to bypass longstanding deadlocks. People, it seems, We collectively, through our Congress, placed restraints want their environmental problems solved and not mere- on individual, corporate, and government action so it ly massaged by government officials, and perpetual liti- didn’t threaten our health or our environment. gation seems to have limited appeal as a spectator sport. This is the system of restraints to which Judge The American West seems to have specialized in this sort Prettyman referred. Without this ordering of our con- of process, probably because it is in the small timber, duct, things begin to break down and our society and ranching, and mining communities of the West that the ultimately freedom itself are threatened. The system of conflicts between livelihood and environmental protec- restraints is simply the “rule of law” so often cited as tion seem particularly sharp. necessary for an ordered and free society. Thomas Jefferson once pointed out that if the peo- What we fashioned by our environmental laws was ple appeared not enlightened enough to exercise their a top-down, command-and-control system of restraints. control of government, the solution was not to take In spite of some skeptics, this system worked pret- away the control but to “inform their discretion by edu- ty well. Our air and water are appreciably cleaner than cation.” The collaborative processes that are springing when we started over thirty years ago. This is particu- up around the country are doing just that, giving to larly apparent if we imagine where we would be today large numbers of citizens a new comprehension of the had we done nothing. Large point sources of pollution complexity involved in government decisions, out of such as power plants or industrial emitters are permit- which has got to come a heightened appreciation of, and ted by government agencies and largely under social tolerance for, the necessary work of government. If control. In addition, automobiles emit far less carbon these processes work, if they spread, if they become an monoxide, ozone, or nitrogen oxides than before con- indispensable part of government at all levels, it will trols were put in place. We have identified and elimi- hold out hope that, once again, America will be ready nated, or greatly mitigated, the effects of many pesti- for self-government and we will continue to show the

21 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES PLENARY ADDRESSES AND AWARDS

way for a world desperately in need of democracy’s Chairman of the Washington State Salmon Recovery blessings. Funding Board since 1999 and has been instrumental in William D. Ruckelshaus served as Administrator of the efforts to recover endangered salmon species in the region. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) from its Ruckelshaus is the immediate past Chairman of the inception in December 1970 until April 1973. A decade World Resources Institute Board of Directors. He is also later he was asked by President Ronald Reagan to return to Chairman Emeritus of the University of Wyoming the agency’s helm, where he served as the fifth Ruckelshaus Institute for Environment and Natural Administrator until 1985. While the challenges of adminis- Resources, Chairman of the Meridian Institute, and he tering the EPA evolved as the agency matured, Ruckelshaus serves on the board of several other nonprofit organizations. consistently sought balanced, durable, and widely-support- Currently, Ruckelshaus is a Strategic Director in the ed approaches to environmental and conservation issues. Madrona Venture Fund and a principal in the Madrona Ruckelshaus was the U.S. representative to the United Investment Group, L.L.C., a Seattle based investment com- Nations World Commission on Environment and pany. He is the director of several corporations, including Development (commonly known as the Brundtland Cummins Engine Company, Pharmacia Corporation, Commission) from 1983 to 1987. The Commission’s 1987 Solutia, Inc., Coinstar, Inc., Nordstrom, Inc., and report on sustainable development, “Our Common Future,” Weyerhaeuser Company. led to the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, which was Born in Indianapolis on July 24, 1932, Ruckelshaus one of the largest gatherings of world leaders in history. graduated cum laude from Princeton University in 1957 Ruckelshaus was appointed by President George W. with a Bachelor of Arts degree and obtained his law degree Bush to serve on the U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy. The from Harvard University in 1960. He was a member of the Commission issued its final report in September 2004, mak- Indiana House of Representatives and its majority leader ing recommendations to the President and Congress for a from 1967 to 1969. In addition to his service as coordinated and comprehensive national ocean policy. Administrator of the EPA, Ruckelshaus has held other lead- Previously, Ruckelshaus was appointed by President Bill ership positions in the federal government including Acting Clinton in 1997 to serve as the U.S. envoy addressing issues Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Deputy relating to the Pacific Salmon Treaty. He has served as Attorney General of the United States.

22 Chapter 3

ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSIONS

ROUNDTABLES

Lessons Learned from Successful Environmental Forecasting Approaches

Designing Ecological Forecasting Systems

Applying Environmental Forecasting to Environmental Decisionmaking Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSIONS

Plenary Roundtable Lessons Learned from Successful Environmental Forecasting Approaches

PANEL DISCUSSION

D. James Baker, President and CEO, Academy of Natural Sciences; Former Administrator, NOAA Charles Groat, Director, U.S. Geological Survey Charles Kennel, Director, Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Former Associate Administrator, Mission to Planet Earth, NASA Margaret Leinen, Assistant Director, Geosciences, National Science Foundation

MODERATED BY

Mohamed El-Ashry, Former President and CEO, Global Environment Facility

Panel members (from left) Mohamed El-Ashry, James Baker, Charles Groat, Charles Kennel, and Margaret Leinen.

24 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSIONS

The devastating earthquake and tsunami in the enable us to broadcast warnings of severe weather that Indian Ocean on December 26, 2004, demonstrated the save thousands of lives every year. But even with a vital importance of improving and integrating our envi- warning, it is still not possible to get an adequate ronmental forecasting systems and decisionmaking response in many developing countries. The communi- capabilities. In order to achieve that goal, Mohamed El- cation system is inadequate and most of the public does Ashry said it is important to draw upon many lessons not know what to do. For the ocean, we can only issue that can be gleaned from successful environmental fore- warnings in certain parts of the world because our casting systems that are already in existence. measurement and communication systems are not ade- El-Ashry said the tsunami is a reminder of the vul- quate. Even the developed world is at risk for tsunamis, nerability of developing countries to natural disasters. which require underwater sensors. All parts of the sys- Experts from around the world agree that thousands of tem, including public education, are inadequate. Baker lives could have been saved if an effective tsunami fore- said we need more instruments on land and on satel- casting and warning system had been in place in the lites, a better communications network, and an educat- Indian Ocean. Shortly after the tsunami, an internation- ed public. al agreement was reached to create such a system. Recent Baker said better policy choices are also needed. For natural disasters demonstrate that we are really dealing example, the sustained scientific management of forest- with global issues and global challenges that will require ed watersheds can reduce flooding and pollution, even global cooperation. El-Ashry said that U.S. leadership, in coastal zones that are far away from inland water- knowledge, and experience can come into play in sheds. Paved surfaces in urbanizing watersheds exacer- addressing these global challenges. bate flooding. Unfortunate government policies provide The tsunami disaster highlighted the need for better insurance for people to build in flood-prone areas. Baker communication and education. “All the technology in emphasized that education and better policy choices are the world doesn’t do a lot of good if you can’t get the a key part of reducing loss of life and property, and for word out,” said Charles Groat. In the case of the Indian making life on Earth more sustainable. It is important for Ocean tsunami, the entire warning chain was weak. The us to understand how our planet works in order to do monitoring system in the Indian Ocean was weak; the this. A key lesson is that technology is essential, but it is communications infrastructure to local authorities was not enough. weak; and public education was weak. Establishing a Major environmental forecasting initiatives such as tsunami warning system is easy in comparison to estab- the Global Earth Observation System of Systems lishing lines of communication to local authorities and (GEOSS) and the National Ecological Observatory educating local populations how to respond. Network (NEON) are being designed to achieve specific D. James Baker provided a historical perspective on societal benefits and address the needs of both scientists natural disasters. In September 1900, the Galveston and non-scientists, including policy makers, natural Hurricane killed at least 8,000 people. In October 1998, resource managers, and natural hazards planners. almost 100 years later, Hurricane Mitch killed about Charles Kennel said that GEOSS is science serving 11,000 people in Central America. In 1883, the Krakatoa society. As described in Chapter 4, GEOSS is a transfor- tsunami killed more than 36,000 people in Indonesia mative initiative that would “take the pulse of the plan- alone. At the end of 2004, the Indian Ocean tsunamis et,” revolutionize our understanding of the Earth, and killed more than 150,000 people. achieve societal benefits in nine areas. The environmen- Baker said our ability to issue warning has tal-forecasting community should make its data as com- improved, but we only do well for certain types of haz- pelling and well publicized as the Mars Rover photo- ards in certain parts of the world. In most of the devel- graphs, Kennel implored. “How come the Earth doesn’t oped world, forecasting and communications systems get any respect?” he asked.

25 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSIONS

Human architecture should precede system architec- The third phase of this system will occur when there ture in designing an observing system, Kennel empha- is broad access by unsophisticated users who can devel- sized. The most important part of the human architec- op their own useful products. Kennel thinks it is time to ture is the network of understanding that develops at least enable the beginnings of this development by among the data providers, the scientists and the technol- creating internet portals for high-level products, media ogists, and the users of the information. A clear vision adopted imagery, algorithms for submitting volunteer for what must be done results from a dialogue between observations, simple decision support tools, and basic capability and need. analytic tools and programs. Kennel said the building blocks of GEOSS will The science of the Earth will evolve to a new phase include satellites, aircraft, unpiloted automated vehicles, when this occurs. We have gone beyond identifying and distributed sensor nets on land, in ice, in the ocean, and understanding the basic processes that govern the Earth’s on the ocean bottom, moorings, robotic ocean floats, systems, and we are moving to a state of continuous ships, and so on. The sensors will be both active and pas- awareness of their operation. That continuous awareness sive. The essential new element that makes it all possible will lead to new scientific insights as information and is that this entire observing infrastructure will be coupled understanding from disparate areas are brought together. to a comprehensive cyber infrastructure using optical, But society will use continuous awareness to adaptively wireless, and satellite communications with real time manage its environment and to promote a more unified data assimilation into diagnostic and predictive models, global view of the problems that confront us in this cen- all connected. “This is the vision. This system will self- tury, Kennel concluded. assemble from such building blocks,” Kennel said. Drawing upon examples from meteorology, The evolution of GEOSS has intriguing possibilities. oceanography, geology, and biology, Margaret Leinen Today’s sensors and platforms are large and expensive identified several lessons that can be applied to new and many will stay that way, Kennel said. And the major environmental forecasting systems. In the aftermath of backbone for the global Earth observing enterprise will the tsunami disaster, many people have focused on the continue to be sustained by government. But sensor nets need to expand networks of ocean buoys that can sense will evolve rapidly, Kennel suggested. Eventually there the waves associated with a tsunami and on the need to may be hundreds of billions of sensors distributed improve transmission mechanisms for informing people around the surface of the Earth. Nanosensors could com- about a tsunami forecast or warning. Observations and municate via cell phone and emerging technologies. He transmission mechanisms are necessary components of suggested the term “nanonet” to describe a system of environmental forecasting systems, but they are not suf- networked nanosensors. ficient. Leinen said additional research on environmen- Drawing an analogy with the development of the tal processes and models is also essential for improving internet, Kennel noted that billions of unsophisticated environmental forecasting systems. We need to improve users created products that none of the designers of the our fundamental understanding of processes that drive internet or any of the funders or any of the initial users environmental changes and to improve mathematical could ever imagine. This occurred shortly after the first models that have the capacity to forecast future environ- peer-to-peer use of the internet in which the network mental changes. For example, fundamental research on itself was supported by the government, but the uses of meteorological processes and models can lead to more it were determined by the users. If we imagine that the accurate forecasts and earlier warnings of major storms, Global Earth Observation System of Systems will follow even in the absence of additional data or improved a similar path, Kennel thinks that we have gone beyond observation systems. the first phase of a government directed program and Leinen stressed the importance of working at multi- into the second phase of initial peer-to-peer interactions. ple spatial and temporal scales in order to improve our

26 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSIONS

ability to forecast environmental changes. To illustrate by retrofitting highly vulnerable structures in areas that this point, she discussed research on wildfires that was have a high likelihood of strong shaking. The Federal supported through NSF’s Long Term Ecological Research Emergency Management Agency has joined with the (LTER) program. One of the important lessons is that National Science Foundation, the U.S. Geological the processes taking place in a wildfire depend on the Survey, and other agencies interested in mitigating the scale of the system. In the initial stage of development, a potential effects of earthquakes and preventing natural wildfire is controlled by the amount and availability of hazards from becoming natural disasters. An important combustible material. As the fire spreads and reaches a lesson is that our ability to develop a deep understand- larger size, the connectivity of the combustible material ing of processes and comprehensive models of what will controls the spread and intensity of the fire. Once the fire happen is of great value because this enables us to pre- assumed a certain size, it generates its own weather. The pare in advance for a catastrophic natural hazard even if processes controlling the predictability of the fire are we do not know when it will occur. largely dependent on the scale of the system. As we Changing directions, Groat said that we can use our attempt to forecast more environmental phenomenon— understanding of environmental processes and our abil- such as wildfires, desertification, and precipitation asso- ity to forecast environmental changes to manage certain ciated with climate change—it is becoming increasingly variables and achieve desired outcomes. Adaptive man- clear that scientists need to understand processes oper- agement approaches can be used for this purpose. ating at multiple scales. Drawing on an experiment with adaptive management in Margaret Lenin and Charles Groat demonstrated the the Grand Canyon below the Glen Canyon Dam, Groat utility of improving our ability to forecast what will hap- described a collaborative process for manipulating envi- pen even if it remains difficult to forecast when an event ronmental variables that affected precious resources— will occur. For example, an active area of research con- including critical ecosystems, habitats, and popula- cerns what will happen in Los Angeles as a result of a tions—to the satisfaction of stakeholders with different major earthquake in that area. An important component interests. A key lesson is that the development of rigor- of this research is the development of quantitative mod- ous and comprehensive environmental management sys- els that are based on a deep understanding of processes tems based on environmental observations, understand- that operate at different scales. The models show how an ing, models, and forecasts is a complex process that earthquake on different parts of the San Andreas Fault involves a long-term commitment and multi-stakehold- system will propagate, what kind of shaking will take er engagement. This is usually an expensive process. A place, and even more importantly, how the shaking will daunting challenge is to apply this approach to manag- affect different kinds of buildings and the geospatial dis- ing natural hazards, such as wildfires, where key vari- tribution of the effects. We can maximize the societal ables are controlled by both humans and nature. benefits of forecasts and minimize the cost of mitigation

27 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSIONS

Plenary Roundtable Designing Ecological Forecasting Systems

PANEL DISCUSSION

Ann Bartuska, Deputy Chief for Research and Development, U.S. Forest Service; Former President, Ecological Society of America Gary Foley, Director, National Exposure Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Bruce Hayden, Professor, University of Virginia; Co-Director, National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) Project Office Thomas Lovejoy, President, The H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment; Former President, American Institute of Biological Sciences Steven Stanley, Professor of Paleobiology, Johns Hopkins University; Former President, American Geological Institute

MODERATED BY

Ronald Pulliam, Regents Professor, University of Georgia; Former Director, National Biological Service; Former President, Ecological Society of America

Panel members (from left) Ann Bartuska, Gary Foley, Bruce Hayden, Thomas Lovejoy, and Steven Stanley.

28 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSIONS

Building on the first plenary roundtable discussion, systems. In some cases, forest supervisors are given Ronald Pulliam said the design of new ecological fore- information about the effect of climate change on fire casting systems will benefit from lessons learned from behavior over the next fifty years. They may not know other environmental forecasting systems. He highlighted what to do with this information if they have a one- two major challenges that should be addressed when year budget cycle and a five-year planning cycle. They designing new ecological forecasting systems, such as need guidance in order to make decisions based on this the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). information. One is to design systems that are relevant to decision- Bartuska emphasized that progress can be achieved making. The other is to link local ecological studies with through partnerships among federal, state, private, and those at regional, national, and global scales. However, academic institutions, as well as citizen scientists and Pulliam said the technical challenges of designing eco- volunteer monitors. logical forecasting systems may not be as difficult as Gary Foley said the international Group on Earth challenges of communicating the science and building Observations and the U.S Interagency Working Group bridges to decisionmakers. on Earth Observations have produced plans and back- As the U.S. Forest Service celebrates its 100th ground documents that provide valuable guidance for anniversary, the agency is focusing on how the past is ecological forecasting. A goal of these initiatives is to informing the future and how it can make better deci- provide better data for decisionmaking and better decisions. Toward that end, the agency’s Ann Bartuska sion support tools in order to achieve societal benefits addressed desirable attributes of an ecological forecast- from improved ecological forecasting. To achieve this ing system from the perspective of a land management goal, it is important to understand the needs of the user agency: community. It is also useful to ask users what data and • First, it is important to match the scale of the informa- decision support tools that are using now, Foley added. tion with the scale of the decision. For example, the Many environmental decisionmakers are not aware of information needed to address forest fires at a site-spe- existing data and decision support tools. cific scale is different from the information needed to Foley outlined the large constituency of decision- address forest fires at an ecosystem scale or for the makers that would benefit from ecological forecasting. entire western United States. For example, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency • Second, forecasting systems should be practical and has four regulatory offices and 10 regional offices as well practicable. Forecasting systems will be supported in as contacts with 100 state environmental agencies and the long run if people can put them into practice and councils, 600 tribal organizations, and numerous local use them. They need to go beyond theory and organizations. Existing channels of communication, grandiose science in order to provide added value to including television and newspapers, can be used to land managers. improve outreach and education for the large communi- • Third, ecological forecasting systems should be flexi- ty of environmental decisionmakers. It would be useful, ble and dynamic so that they can meet future needs for example, if ecological indicators and forecasts were that are not anticipated at the time they are designed. included in weather reports, news broadcasts, and news- A system should have an intrinsic ability to be adapt- papers. This would enable decisionmakers and other able as new needs emerge. In many cases, it is possible users to become familiar with this information and use it to use the basic framework and adjust it to do some- in both institutional and personal decisionmaking. thing different in the future. Beyond the technical challenges of improving environ- • Fourth, land managers should be able to make deci- mental observations, science, and models, it is important sions and take actions based on ecological forecasting to improve our ability to engage the user community,

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including people who may not recognize that they are NEON planning documents. This participation is criti- members of the user community. cal to the success of NEON. Bruce Hayden said nearly 200 people are actively Thomas Lovejoy discussed the relationship of the engaged in planning and designing the National Heinz Center’s study on The State of the Nation’s Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). As described Ecosystems to the question of ecological forecasting. The in Chapter 4, NEON is envisioned as an unprecedented State of the Nation’s Ecosystems lays out a blueprint for platform that will transform ecological research, address periodic reporting on the condition and use of ecosys- grand challenges in ecology and the environmental sci- tems in the United States. Developed by experts from ences, and achieve credible ecological forecasting and businesses, environmental organizations, universities, prediction. NEON will be designed to provide ecological and federal, state, and local government agencies, it is forecasts that will benefit society over a period of designed to provide policymakers and the general public decades. Before focusing on the science, it is important with a succinct and comprehensive—yet scientifically to identify what types of forecasts will help achieve the sound and nonpartisan—view of “how we are doing.” intended societal benefits. The study identifies the major characteristics of ecosys- Providing an historical perspective, Hayden dis- tems that should be tracked through time to provide this cussed an environmental observing system proposed by view, and, where possible, provides information on both Thomas Jefferson. It took more than 100 years before current conditions and historic trends. It also highlights Jefferson’s vision of a system for measuring meteorologi- key gaps—situations where data do not exist or have not cal variables in each county was established. It is now been assembled to support national reporting. more than 200 years since Thomas Jefferson conducted One of the most surprising results, Lovejoy said, is his own biodiversity survey of Virginia, and we still do that for half of the indicators there are not adequate data not have the ability to measure biodiversity in all coun- for a national report. The candor of saying that we do not ties across the nation. NEON may not be able to achieve know is making a big impact on how people might pur- that goal, but it can provide information on the status of sue similar exercises in other countries. The State of the ecological systems on a national scale. Nation’s Ecosystems only provides data up to the present Communications and education are important com- day. Nevertheless, the study is important for forecasting ponents of NEON. Drawing on examples from weather ecological changes. For example, the data can be used to forecasting, Hayden said that map displays and nowcast- populate forecasting models, to determine if past predic- ing could be applied to ecological forecasting. People are tions were accurate, and to model how various decisions interested in ecological conditions in their community. might affect the trends. They could be encouraged to work with scientists to set Lovejoy emphasized the relationship between cli- up local networks in their community. mate change and the state of the nation’s ecosystems. He Hayden emphasized that NEON cannot be all recommends turning the debate around so that we can things to all people. We have to control the expectations avoid problems. Rather than asking what levels of green- of our colleagues, he said. In planning NEON, house gases are unsafe and what levels of interference researchers should look beyond their personal research with the climate system are unsafe, he recommends ask- interests. They need to adopt a 50-year perspective, ing what levels of greenhouse gases are safe and what including the needs of several generations of students. levels of interference with the climate system are safe. In What critical forecasts do we need to make 10, 20, 30, addition to addressing the science of climate change we and 40 years out? What science do we need to accom- need to consider the context in which it is used. plish that particular end? Once we answer those ques- Steven Stanley said that we need to understand the tions, we will have a more focused scientific agenda, deep geological past in order to understand the future. Hayden said. He encouraged people to read and vet the The geological record of past ecological changes is con-

30 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSIONS

tained in rocks, fossils, soft sediments, deep sea cores, ice Based on his ideas about why the modern ice age cores from glaciers, and other sources. Stanley identified began, Stanley thinks we can come out of it very quick- two classes of phenomena in the geological record. First, ly, even on a human time scale. Before the Earth moved the record reveals major changes in global ecosystems, into the ice age, there were forests in the Arctic, and some of which have happened on shockingly rapid scales there was an absence of tundra. We have to be concerned of decades or even a few years. Second, the record reveals about future shifts from tundra to evergreen forests, whole states of the global ecosystem that are not at all like which could encroach on the Arctic Ocean. Once the the present ecosystem. If scientists want to model the tundra begins to melt, there is a feedback loop in which present ecosystem, we need to model these past states or more heat is trapped as a result of the decrease in albe- else something in the model is deficient. do, or surface reflectivity. There may also be a loss of One example is from the Eocene (40 million years methane from tundra as it melts, and the methane could ago), which is not very long ago from a geological per- contribute to greenhouse warming. Likewise, the melt- spective. At that time, alligators were living in the Arctic ing of sea ice and the warming of ocean water can cause Circle and palm trees were living in Wyoming. The cli- further changes in climate systems and ecosystems. mate of southeast England was like that of modern Stanley said it is important to recognize key indica- Malaysia. Atmospheric scientists have not successfully tors, feedback loops, thresholds, and chain reactions in modeled these climatic states. Another example is based climate systems and ecosystems. It is possible to move to on evidence from a Greenland ice core. As the Earth was a different ecological state from which it is difficult to emerging from the last period of glacial expansion a few move quickly back to the previous ecological state. Based thousand years ago, there was a change in mean annual on his knowledge of the geological past, Stanley said, temperature in Greenland of approximately 10oF in just future climate change may be worse than envisioned. a few years.

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Plenary Roundtable Applying Environmental Forecasting to Environmental Decisionmaking

PANEL DISCUSSION

Ray Anderson, Founder and Chairman, Interface, Inc.; Former Co-chair, President’s Council on Sustainable Development Rita Colwell, Distinguished University Professor, University of Maryland and the Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health; Chairman; Canon U.S. Life Sciences, Inc.; Director Emeritus, National Science Foundation Brigadier General John J. Kelly, Jr., Deputy Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere Walter Reid, Director, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

MODERATED BY

Dave Jones, President and CEO, StormCenter Communications, Inc.

Panel members (from left) Dave Jones, Ray Anderson, Rita Colwell, Gen. John Kelly, and Walter Reid.

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Water Reid discussed the role of scenarios and inter- contributions to growing inequities and disparities. national science assessments in applying environmental The harmful consequences of ecosystem changes forecasting to environmental decisionmaking. He said could grow significantly worse during the first half of the that scenarios are important and underutilized tools for century. However, three of the four Millennium Ecosystem communicating long-range forecasting information to Assessment scenarios show that significant changes in pol- decisionmakers. Scenarios provide a valuable means of icy can mitigate many of the negative consequences of engaging decisionmakers, but there are still major hur- growing pressures on ecosystems, although the changes dles in building ecology into global scenarios. required are large and not currently underway. Scenarios are structured accounts of possible futures Major barriers still exist in developing global ecosys- that often combine quantitative modeling with qualita- tem service scenarios, including the paucity of global tive analysis. They are not forecasts or predictions but ecological forecasting models, the difficulty of linking make use of many forecasting methods and models. models, and the difficulty of incorporating surprise Scenarios can be used in decisionmaking to allow explo- events that result from thresholds and discontinuities. ration of the consequences of decisions made today on Global scientific assessments can be powerful mech- future outcomes, to widen perspectives, for public edu- anisms for bringing forecasting information to bear on cation, to allow testing of strategies and plans under dif- decision needs, Reid said. Such assessments are most ferent “futures,” and to provide an unmatched opportu- effective when the process allows dialogue between sci- nity to directly engage decisionmakers in discussion and entists and users. They are intended to establish areas of consideration of scientific findings. scientific consensus, but they present all credible points Reid described the Millennium Ecosystem of view or scientific results and identify areas of scientif- Assessment as an international program designed to ic disagreement. They also identify where insufficient meet the needs of decisionmakers and the public for sci- knowledge exists to answer a policy-relevant question. entific information concerning the consequences of Scientific assessments apply the judgment of scientists ecosystem change for human well-being and options for but explicitly state the level of certainty concerning con- responding to those changes. It focuses on ecosystem clusions. They are policy relevant but not policy pre- services (the benefits people obtain from ecosystems), scriptive. how changes in ecosystem services have affected human Jack Kelly provided an international, national, and well-being, how ecosystem changes may affect people in NOAA outlook on Earth observations. Less than one future decades, and response options that might be month after the Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami of adopted at local, national, or global scales to improve December 2004, the United States announced an initia- ecosystem management and thereby contribute to tive to provide the nation with a nearly 100 percent human well-being and poverty alleviation. detection capability for a U.S. coastal tsunami and a Over the past 50 years, humans have changed response time within minutes. The initiative will also ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than at any expand monitoring capabilities in the Pacific and time in human history, Reid said. The changes made to Caribbean basins, providing tsunami warnings for ecosystems have contributed to substantial net gains in regions bordering half of the world’s oceans. This initia- human well-being and economic development, but these tive is part of a global tsunami warning system and a gains are being achieved at growing costs in the form of: future global observation system. • Degradation and unsustainable use of ecosystem serv- Kelly said the Global Earth Observation System of ices. Systems (GEOSS) will enable the collection and distri- • Increased likelihood of large magnitude, non-linear bution of accurate, reliable Earth observation data, infor- and potentially abrupt changes in ecosystems. mation, products, and services in an end-to-end process. • Exacerbation of poverty for some groups of people and It will be a distributed system of systems built on current

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international cooperation among existing Earth observ- tions for disaster warnings, and a comprehensive and ing and data management systems. sustained land observation system. Kelly noted the nine societal benefit areas of GEOSS Rita Colwell provided an integrated synthesis of (see Chapter 4) and focused on the ocean as an example. multidisciplinary scientific advances related to global Better observations—from tide gauges, buoys, and sen- infectious diseases, water, and human health. With the sors—will allow us to forecast with more accuracy and rapid increase in international air travel, she said that provide our coastal communities more effective warn- bacteria and viruses travel almost as fast as money. ings. This is important because more than half the Colwell emphasized that infectious disease is a moving world’s population lives within 60 km of the shoreline, target. She presented examples involving the mosquito and this could rise to three-fourths by the year 2020. W. smithii; hantavirus incidence in the southwestern Approximately 25 percent of Earth’s biological produc- United States; campylobacter incidence in Britain and tivity and an estimated 80 to 90 percent of global com- Wales; tularemia incidence in Jamtland, Central Sweden; mercial fish catch is concentrated in coastal zones. and cholera on the coast of Peru. Drawing on these and Worldwide agricultural benefits of better El Niño fore- other examples, Colwell concluded that in a world of casts are conservatively estimated at $450 to $550 mil- ever-more-rapid-change, patterns of disease expand lion per year. More than 90 percent of natural disaster- across scales, and explanations must draw from biologi- related deaths occur in developing countries, especially cal, physical, and social science. in coastal areas. Understanding environmental factors affecting Kelly described the rapid progress of the interna- human health and well-being is one of the nine societal tional Group on Earth Observations. At the first Earth benefit areas of the Global Earth Observation System of Observation Summit in Washington, D.C., on July 31, Systems. Colwell demonstrated that there is tremendous 2003, 33 nations and the European Commission adopt- potential for advances in this area. By examining rela- ed a declaration that signifies the political commitment tionships among such factors as weather, biology, and to move toward development of a comprehensive, coor- human interactions with the environment, Colwell dinated, and sustained Earth observation system. At the demonstrated solutions that have been successful in Second Earth Observation Summit in Tokyo on April 25, reducing disease incidence. A new form of epidemiology 2004, 43 nations and the European Commission adopt- may emerge from the integration of such factors. ed a Framework that defines the intent and scope of the Ray Anderson addressed the subject of environmen- Global Earth Observation System of Systems. At the tal forecasting from the perspective of a self-described third Earth Observation Summit in Brussels on February “industrialist.” He said that ecology tells us we are part 16, 2005, 55 nations and the European Commission of nature, not above or outside it; it also tells us that were expected to endorse a 10-year implementation plan what we do to the web of life we do to ourselves. for GEOSS. Industrial ecology tells us the industrial system, as it In addition to the international GEOSS plan of operates today, simply cannot go on if it abuses the web implementation, Kelly discussed the Strategic Plan for of life. The industrial system takes too much, extracting the U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System (2005), too much of Earth’s natural capital, Anderson said. which outlines the U.S. contribution to GEOSS. The The rate of material throughput—the metabolism of vision of the U.S. plan is to “enable a healthy public, the system—is now endangering our prosperity, rather economy, and planet through an integrated, comprehen- than enhancing it, and also endangering the biosphere sive, and sustained Earth observation system.” The U.S. and human health, he continued. strategic plan contains several near-term opportunities, Anderson said a sustainable society depends totally including a comprehensive and integrated data manage- and absolutely on a mind shift— one mind at a time, one ment and communications strategy, improved observa- organization at a time, one building, one company, one

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community, one region, one industry at a time, until the help the media, government agencies, emergency man- entire industrial system has been transformed into a sus- agers and others better understand environmental issues tainable system living ethically, in balance with Earth’s and to enable the media and educators to increase pub- natural systems. lic awareness. It provides environmental content that is Dave Jones formed StormCenter Communications, easy to understand, scientifically accurate, and personal- Inc., to provide global environmental information prod- ly relevant. It adds value by making the content relevant ucts to media partners. Operating at the interface and understandable to the general public and decision- between environmental forecasting and communica- makers, which is an essential step in applying environ- tions, his company provides monitoring and visuals to mental forecasting to environmental decisionmaking.

35 36 Chapter 4

SYMPOSIA

Creating a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS): Benefits for Environmental Forecasting

Creating a National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON): Developing the Capacity for Ecological Forecasting

Environmental Change: An Interactive Discussion About the Future

Engaging Users in Environmental Forecasting Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES SYMPOSIA

Symposium Creating a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS): Benefits for Environmental Forecasting

PANELISTS

Charles Groat (Chair), Director U.S. Geological Survey; Alternate U.S. Representative to the Group on Earth Observations Roberta Balstad, President, Center for International Earth Science Information Network Rosalind Helz, Associate Program Coordinator, Volcano Hazards Program, U.S. Geological Survey K. Bruce Jones, Senior Scientist, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Greg Withee, Assistant Administrator for Satellite and Information Services, NOAA; Co-Chair, Interagency Working Group on Earth Observations

The Global Earth Observation System of Systems quake and tsunami in the Indian Ocean, the internation- (GEOSS) is a transformative initiative that would “take al community is working to develop a global tsunami the pulse of the planet” and revolutionize our under- monitoring system and to improve the capacity to deliv- standing of the Earth. It is an initiative endorsed by 55 er timely warnings that can avert disasters. nations to achieve comprehensive, coordinated, and sus- Groat provided an overview of GEOSS. As described tained observations of the planet’s natural systems. in the GEOSS 10-Year Implementation Plan (2005), GEOSS is being explicitly designed to inform envi- GEOSS would build on and add value to existing Earth ronmental decisionmaking and achieve specific societal observation systems by coordinating their efforts, benefits (Boxes 4.1 and 4.2). A global system of Earth addressing critical gaps, supporting their interoperabili- observations “would transform the way we relate and ty, sharing information, reaching a common understand- react to our environment, providing significant societal ing of user requirements and improving delivery of benefits through improved human health and well- information to users. In addition to facilitating the pre- being, environmental management, and economic diction, mitigation, and response to catastrophic natural growth,” according to the Strategic Plan for the U.S. hazards, GEOSS is being designed to address a wide Integrated Earth Observation System (2005), which out- range of other challenges (Box 4.2). lines the U.S. contribution to GEOSS. Greg Withee said that more than $3 trillion of the In order to maximize the benefits to society, Charles U.S. economy is affected by the environment, including Groat emphasized the need to consider carefully the such sectors as agriculture, energy, transportation, and needs of end users when designing the system. He also water. In a statement to the 2003 Earth Observation stressed the importance of making data available to the Summit, President George Bush noted that an integrated scientific community on a timely basis and of improving Earth observation system would benefit people around the delivery of warnings and other critical information to the world, particularly those in the Southern Hemi- users. In the aftermath of the December 26, 2004, earth- sphere, by allowing us to make better informed decisions

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affecting our environment and economies. Bush said, understand and eventually forecast short- and long-term “Our cooperation will enable us to develop the capacity ecological changes. Some ecological threats, such as for- to predict droughts, prepare for weather emergencies, est fires, can benefit from relatively short-term forecasts. plan and protect crops, manage coastal areas and fish- Enhanced forest fire vulnerability assessments can eries, and monitor air quality.” reduce the cost and improve the effectiveness of efforts Withee focused on the need to transform Earth to manage the nation’s forests. Longer-term forecasts observation data into an Earth information system that based on specific trends and management scenarios has the potential to improve significantly our under- must be developed to address issues such as global cli- standing of Earth processes and our ability to forecast mate change and urban sprawl. Decisionmakers must be future changes to the Earth’s systems. Withee noted the equipped with forecasting tools to develop effective difficulty of transcending disciplinary, institutional, and management strategies to prevent or reverse ecological geographic boundaries within the United States. degradation and to avoid catastrophic losses of valuable Coalescing interoperable, transparent data international- ecological services. ly poses an even greater challenge. However, the politi- Roberta Balstad said that socioeconomic data should cal will to make GEOSS a reality is strong in the United be integrated into GEOSS in order to achieve the expect- States and the recent series of Earth Observation ed societal benefits. Balstad cited the recent tsunami as Summits has demonstrated the global interest and com- an example where socioeconomic data became vital in mitment necessary to succeed. aiding immediate response, short-term relief, and recon- Bruce Jones focused on the need to build capacity to struction efforts. By combining population density data with topography and bathymetry, the United Nations anticipated where to expect the highest level of human Box 4.1 GEOSS Vision and Purpose devastation. Understanding where populations live, their livelihoods, and levels of malnourishment will greatly “The vision for GEOSS is to realize a future aid in addressing near- and long-term recovery from nat- wherein decisions and actions for the benefit of ural disasters. Socioeconomic data are crucial to efforts humankind are informed by coordinated, com- such as mitigating and adapting to climate change, prehensive and sustained Earth observations and assessing the demand for water resources, developing information.” sustainable agriculture and forestry policies, and com- “The purpose of GEOSS is to achieve combating land degradation and desertification. prehensive, coordinated, and sustained observa- Rosalind Helz illustrated the essential role of com- tions of the Earth system, in order to improve munication networks and public education in prevent- monitoring of the state of the Earth, increase ing natural hazards from becoming devastating natural understanding of Earth processes, and enhance disasters. Helz discussed the danger of volcanic ash prediction of the behavior of the Earth system. plumes to aircraft and the successful global advisory net- GEOSS will meet the need for timely, quality work that was developed to address this hazard. Invisible long-term global information as a basis for sound clouds of volcanic ash can destroy an airplane engine decision making...” hundreds of miles away from a volcanic eruption. Since 1980, nearly 100 commercial jets have inadvertently Source: The Global Earth Observation System of Systems 10-Year flown into volcanic ash plumes, including a 747 jumbo Implementation Plan, final version endorsed by the participants jet that temporarily lost power in all four engines. To of the Third Earth Observation Summit held in Brussels, improve air traffic safety, a global network of Volcanic Belgium, on February 16, 2005. Ash Advisory Centers was established to serve as a valuable intermediary among volcano observatories, meteor-

39 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES SYMPOSIA

Box 4.2 Earth Observation System—Societal Benefits

GEOSS Implementation Plan— U.S. Strategic Plan—Societal Benefit Areas Societal Benefit Areas 1. Improve weather forecasting. GEOSS will enhance delivery of benefits to society 2. Reduce loss of life and property from disasters. in the following initial areas: 3. Protect and monitor our ocean resource. 1. Reducing loss of life and property from natural 4. Understand, assess, predict, mitigate, and adapt and human-induced disasters. to climate variability and change. 2. Understanding environmental factors affecting 5. Support sustainable agriculture and forestry, and human health and well-being. combat land degradation. 3. Improving management of energy resources. 6. Understand the effect of environmental factors on 4. Understanding, assessing, predicting, mitigating, human health and well-being. and adapting to climate variability and change. 7. Develop the capacity to make ecological fore- 5. Improving water resource management through casts. better understanding of the water cycle. 8. Protect and monitor water resources. 6. Improving weather information, forecasting, and 9. Monitor and manage energy resources. warning. 7. Improving the management and protection of ter- Source: Strategic Plan for the U.S. Integrated Earth Observation restrial, coastal, and marine ecosystems. System, as released by the U.S. Interagency Working Group on Earth Observations. 8. Supporting sustainable agriculture and combating desertification. 9. Understanding, monitoring, and conserving biodiversity.

Source: The Global Earth Observation System of Systems 10-Year Implementation Plan, final version endorsed by the participants of the Third Earth Observation Summit held in Brussels, Belgium, on February 16, 2005.

ological agencies, air traffic control centers, and pilots. Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers by incorporating educa- The location and projected path of volcanic ash plumes tion and communication as key elements of hazard mit- is relayed through the advisory network to pilots flying igation. This could greatly improve the effectiveness of near the affected area in time to avoid the hazard. The new and existing warning systems. design of GEOSS can benefit from the success of the

40 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES SYMPOSIA

Symposium Creating a National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON): Developing the Capacity for Ecological Forecasting

PANELISTS

Bruce Hayden (Chair), Professor, University of Virginia; Co-Director, NEON Project Office Jeffrey Goldman, NEON Project Manager Pauline Luther, Education Director, Environmental Distance Learning William Michener, Co-Director, NEON Project Office Ronald Pulliam, Regents Professor, University of Georgia; Former Director, National Biological Service; Former President, Ecological Society of America

The National Ecological Observatory Network ing and will maintain a special category for emerging (NEON) is envisioned as an unprecedented platform ecological issues. that will transform ecological research, address grand William Michener discussed NEON’s place within challenges in ecology and the environmental sciences, the context of other major initiatives supported by the and achieve credible ecological forecasting and predic- National Science Foundation. Implementation of NEON tion (Box 4.3). would be funded through the NFS’s Major Research Bruce Hayden outlined the history and mission of Equipment and Facilities Construction account, which NEON and provided an overview of the current status supports transformative “big science projects” that of the planning and design. In September 2004, the require massive infrastructure and involve large teams of National Science Foundation (NSF) made a two-year, scientists. In addition to developing a blueprint for $6 million award to the American Institute for Bio- NEON that will transform ecological science, the NEON logical Sciences to set up a NEON Design Consortium Design Consortium is satisfying institutional priorities to develop a blueprint for the network and a plan for set by NSF as well as national priorities set by Congress. its implementation. Pending the availability of funds, Michener said the NEON Design Consortium con- construction of NEON is being planned for 2006 sists of the project leadership and the committees and through 2011. subcommittees that will design every facet of NEON, Hayden said NEON will focus on the six core from the questions that will be addressed and that will research areas identified in a 2003 National Research guide the design of the research and education platform Council report, NEON: Addressing the Nation’s Environ- to the creation of the community-based legal entity that mental Challenges. These research challenges include the will own and run NEON. A national network design ecological aspects of biological diversity, biogeochemical committee is charged with synthesizing the plans of all cycles, climate change, infectious diseases, invasive other committees into a final reference design for species, and land use and habitat alteration. The NEON NEON. It will make the final decisions on prioritizing design team also plans to focus on hydrological forecast- candidate NEON science missions and observatory func-

41 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES SYMPOSIA

tionalities, geographic distribution of observatories, and be possible to identify the infrastructure needed to con- the scheduling plan for NEON implementation. It will duct the necessary research. ensure that NEON is not built as one observatory at a Pauline Luther discussed the educational compo- time, but as a national network from the beginning. The nent of NEON and provided a set of criteria for design- NEON Design Consortium will also develop a budget for ing successful K-12 environmental distance learning full implementation of NEON. programs. New education tools should comply with Jeffrey Goldman discussed plans for improving our existing educational standards and should be tied to cur- ecological forecasting capacity in the decades ahead. It is ricula that teachers are required to cover in their classes, necessary to understand user needs in order to provide she said. In order to document that teachers and stu- the most valuable ecological forecasts, he emphasized. dents satisfy state educational standards, education pro- The NEON design team is asking broad constituencies grams should generate reliable data and facilitate what they will need to forecast, what science should be accountability. To ensure that the tools will be useful, undertaken to make those forecasts, and what kinds of Luther said, it is important to involve K-12 teachers in decisions will be made based upon these forecasts. building education programs from the beginning of the Examples of possible forecasting needs include: which process. Distance learning programs should be available organisms might become health risks or transmit at no cost and should be easy to use, versatile and acces- pathogens, which ecosystems are at greatest risk for sible. Many teachers are working with old computers, invasion by non-native species, and what are the effects she noted, and they will need educational software that of interactions between land change and biodiversity in is compatible with their hardware. Environmental dis- coupled human-environmental systems. Once the scien- tance learning education should include partnerships tific questions have been identified, Goldman said it will with aquariums, zoos, and museums. Environmental

Box 4.3 NEON Mission and Vision

“NEON will be the first national ecological measurement and observation system designed both to answer regional- to continental-scale scientific questions and to have the interdisciplinary participation necessary to achieve credible ecological forecasting and prediction. As such, NEON will transform the way we conduct science by enabling the integration of research and education from natural to human systems, and from genomes to the biosphere. Social scientists and educators will join ecologists and physical scientists in NEON planning and design and participate as observatory users, recognizing that we live on landscapes that are, to varying degrees, human-dominated ecosystems” (source: www.NEONinc.org). NEON is envisioned as “a continental-scale research instrument consisting of geographically distributed infrastructure, networked via state-of-the-art communications. Cutting-edge lab and field instrumentation, site- based experimental infrastructure, natural history archive facilities, and/or computational, analytical, and modeling capabilities, linked via a computational network, will comprise NEON. NEON will transform ecological research by enabling studies on major environmental challenges at regional to continental scales. Scientists and engineers will use NEON to conduct real-time ecological studies spanning all levels of biological organization and temporal and geographical scales. NSF disciplinary and multidisciplinary programs will support NEON research projects and educational activities. Data from standard measurements made using NEON will be pub- licly available” (source: NSF 04549, 2004).

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learning should focus on the students’ local environment succeed as a collaborative multi-decadal initiative, the in order to make the experience more concrete. next generation of investigators should be engaged in Ronald Pulliam emphasized out that the National the planning and research, and we need to provide Ecological Observatory Network is intended to operate resources for them to participate. over a period of approximately thirty years. In order to

Symposium Environmental Change: An Interactive Discussion About the Future

PANELISTS

Michael Brody (Co-Chair), Office of the Chief Financial Officer, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Robert Olson (Co-Chair), Institute of Alternative Futures Skip Laitner, Office of Air and Radiation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency David Rejeski, Foresight and Governance Program, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Terry Welch, Director, Environmental Technology Center, Dow Chemical

This symposium session explored environmental Well-Known Environmental Concerns. When asked challenges that may emerge between now and 2025. The what well-known environmental concerns could have speakers stimulated the discussion by identifying several the largest environmental impacts between now and environmental and technological issues that they believe 2025, participants most frequently mentioned climate will come to the fore over the generation ahead—issues change, energy (availability, impacts of production, and so significant that they will force major changes in our use), water (availability and quality), and loss of biodi- approach to environmental protection. Then all atten- versity. Other concerns shared by many participants dees at the session (approximately 125 people), working include global air pollution, toxic chemicals, soil ero- in small groups of about 10 to 12 people, had an oppor- sion, environmental impacts of demographic change, tunity to share their own forecasts, views, and critical and emergent infectious diseases. uncertainties for emerging challenges that are not yet “on the radar screen” because of disconnects within and Potential Surprises. Participants identified synergistic among institutions—and disconnects among fields of sci- interactions among environmental problems as an area ence, technology, and policy. This summary also builds where emerging challenges could have surprisingly upon the results of NCSE’s online solicitation of views of large impacts. For example, climate change, habitat the future as part of the conference registration process. destruction, water quality deterioration, the spread of

43 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES SYMPOSIA

invasive species, and biodiversity loss could have mutu- loss of cultural diversity as standardized media and tech- ally amplifying impacts, causing general ecosystem nologies spread worldwide. deterioration and loss of critical ecosystem services. Other potential surprises include sudden climate Environmental Benefits from New Technology. change, conflicts over oil and water, unexpected Participants identified renewable energy and energy effi- impacts of developments in nanotechnology and ciency technologies as the emerging technologies that biotechnology, environmental terrorism, and larger than could do the most to reduce environmental impacts over expected effects of ocean pollution. the generation ahead. Sustainable design practices including zero waste industrial technologies and green Emerging Environmental Opportunities. Participants buildings were seen as important, as were transporta- identified energy efficiency, alternative energy technolo- tion-related changes such as clean vehicles and better gies, and cradle-to-cradle industrial design as the three public transit (complemented by smart growth). most important areas of environmental opportunity not Advances in information technology (monitoring and yet receiving enough attention. Other areas viewed as sensing, mapping, and visualization) and in bioremedia- important include improved testing of chemicals (fast tion could create new capabilities for improving envi- and inexpensive), the growth of corporate sustainability, ronmental protection. positive applications of nanotechnology and biotechnology, and the potential to help developing countries Improving Environmental Forecasting Models. leapfrog environmentally damaging technologies. Participants identified factors missing from current environmental forecasting models that, if included, might Risks from Emerging Technology. Participants high- significantly alter the forecasts they produce. Key factors lighted risks associated with emerging developments in include human behavior (value systems, environmental biotechnology and nanotechnology, rising e-waste, the literacy, risk perception, etc.), insufficient attention to combined effects of new chemicals introduced into the communicating model results to the public, limitations environment, and transportation technology (especially on the completeness and quality of data, political and growing global auto use). Alternative energy technolo- socioeconomic factors, and catastrophic events. gies like nuclear energy, clean coal, and hydrogen could have unintended consequences. Key Choices Needed Over the Next 10 Years. In light of the challenges and opportunities they see ahead, par- Risks from Technology Associated Behaviors. ticipants identified key choices and initiatives needed Participants identified many risks from behavior related over the next 10 years: increasing press coverage and to technological development or the misuse of technolo- education on environmental issues and science; finding gies. Examples include: inadequate assessment of poten- ways to motivate corporate change toward more sustain- tial impacts of new technologies, addiction to media and able practices and individual change toward sustainable technology and disconnection from nature, an over- purchasing choices; moving beyond political barriers in reliance on technological fixes with little attention to energy policy; enhancing the U.S. role in environmental other options, a loss of individual liberties resulting from protection internationally; and creating larger financial unwise applications of information technology, and a incentives for environmental protection.

44 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES SYMPOSIA

Symposium Engaging Users in Environmental Forecasting

PANELISTS

Nathalie Valette-Silver (Chair), Coordinator, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Ecological Forecasting Activities, National Ocean Service, NOAA Otto Doering, Professor of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University; on sabbatical at USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service Ann Fisher, Professor of Agricultural and Environmental Economics, Pennsylvania State University Gregory Hernandez, NOAA Spokesman and Online Editor; former journalist, ABC Radio News Robert Lempert, Senior Physical Scientist, RAND Pardee Center Gary C. Matlock, Director, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, NOAA

The effectiveness of an environmental forecast holder involvement include aiding in the identification depends upon its value and accessibility to the user com- of important questions of study, enhancing the technical munity, according to Nathalie Valette-Silver. Improve- quality of the product and the technical capacity of the ments in user engagement can increase the societal ben- users, sharing ideas, legitimizing the process, adding efits of environmental forecasts. This symposium credence to the results when they are released, dissemi- explored opportunities for building user engagement nating the findings, and increasing the potential for across a wide range of scales, contexts, and perspectives. implementation. Fisher said that stakeholder groups Using the Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assess- have a shared desire to make uncertainty as explicit as ment (CARA) as a case study, Ann Fisher provided insights possible in the analysis and communication of results. about engaging stakeholders in projecting and communi- Otto Doering discussed the challenges of engaging cating potential environmental futures. CARA is a consor- users in a scientific assessment in an adversarial climate. tium of higher education institutions that provides scien- Drawing upon his experience with the National Hypoxia tific information and tools that stakeholders can use to Assessment, he said it can be very difficult to work with support decisions regarding potential changes in climate users in a situation in which tensions are flared and bat- and land cover in the Atlantic region from Virginia to tle lines are drawn from the start. Hypoxia occurs when Massachusetts. A goal of the consortium is to identify dissolved oxygen concentrations in water are below actions that can reduce vulnerability to environmental those necessary to sustain most aquatic species, causing changes. CARA also provides resources that decisionmak- seasonal “dead zones” (such as in the Gulf of Mexico). ers can use to develop and evaluate options for adaptation The National Hypoxia Assessment was undertaken in to environmental changes at local and regional scales. the late 1990’s after environmental advocacy groups Fisher said that a significant outcome of CARA was alleged that the federal government was mismanaging the establishment of an actively engaged regional stake- the nation’s waters. The assessment was intended to pro- holder network. She noted that engaging the user com- vide scientific information as a basis for an action plan, munity from the outset of a study leads to a sense of but it was not intended to make recommendations for ownership among stakeholders. Specific goals for stake- action nor was it the only source of information consid-

45 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES SYMPOSIA

ered in developing the action plan. By drawing affected Robert Lempert portrayed the challenges of effec- parties and local experts into the process from the start, tively engaging decisionmakers when forecasts are Doering said participants are more likely to develop a uncertain. The traditional view has been that good sci- sense of ownership, which tends to breed cooperation. ence leads to good forecasts, which lead to good policy. Doering stressed that establishing an action plan was a However, we are now realizing that good science does political activity, but the policy decisions in the action not necessarily produce reliable forecasts—especially plan were based on scientific forecasting and assessment. when situations are deeply uncertain or there are com- Therefore, carrying over participants from the assess- peting factors based on differing assumptions. The man- ment process to the development of an action plan was ner in which scientists portray uncertainty can compli- critical to successfully reducing, mitigating, and control- cate the engagement of decisionmakers. While proba- ling hypoxia. bilistic forecasts may successfully describe well-charac- Gregory Hernandez discussed the role of scientists terized risks, unexpected outcomes may still arise. in communicating environmental forecasts during sig- Decisionmakers tend to remember the “misses” of fore- nificant media events, such as natural disasters. casts more than the “hits.” Therefore, providing diverse Reporters prefer going straight to the source for focused sets of scenarios, rather than one “mainstream” projec- expertise. They recognize that scientists are key tion, can help transform conversations with decision- providers of accurate and timely information. Although makers—leading to the identification of robust, adap- reporters often have a set of preferred scientists, on any tive strategies. given day circumstances may require them to contact a Gary Matlock summarized the key recommenda- new expert with little notice. In the midst of chaotic tions for engaging users in environmental forecasting: events, it may be difficult for a large organization to identify the goals for the forecast at the beginning of the coordinate a consistent message to the media. In select- process; identify stakeholders and nurture their partici- ing a ‘media-worthy’ scientist, a large organization pation; develop specific processes for interactions should consider experts who have experience with the among scientists, decisionmakers, and other stakehold- media, have been briefed on all aspects of the story, have ers; solicit and incorporate stakeholder feedback at mul- communicated with the organization’s public affairs tiple points in the process; provide regular summaries staff, and have authority to speak on behalf of the organ- and ongoing education to interested parties; adapt to ization. Hernandez provided guidelines for scientists in forecast “hits” and “misses”; and provide decisionmak- speaking with the media, such as remaining calm, being ers with ensembles of forecasts—explicitly stating the aware of leading questions, providing short, declarative role of uncertainty when communicating the results—in statements, avoiding expressing personal opinions, and order to allow decisionmakers to plan for the most like- leaving scientific jargon behind. He added that the ly outcome while remaining flexible to respond to phrase “no comment” may be the most honest and expected outcomes. appropriate response to a question.

46 Chapter 5

TARGETED RECOMMENDATIONS

ttendees at the 5th National Conference on Science, Policy and the Environment, Forecasting Environ- mental Changes, engaged in one of 19 simultaneous breakout sessions, each addressing a different aspect of envi- Aronmental forecasting. Conferees generated a set of science- based recommendations for each topic. The recommendations are grouped under three major themes: Linking Systems and Users; Connecting Institutions; and Scientific and Technological Connections. Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES TARGETED RECOMMENDATIONS

ment of Science (AAAS) should be expanded with an SESSIONS ON LINKING SYSTEMS AND USERS eventual goal of placing Congressional Fellows on the staff of every Representative and Senator who 1. Connecting forecasts with desires them. policymakers ■ Mechanisms analogous to the AAAS Fellowship Program should be created to provide more scientific Environmental forecasts can help policymakers and the input at the state and local level. public understand the implications of current trends and ■ Forecasters should use visualization tools, interactive the potential implications of alternative policy choices. systems, and other new capabilities to help make fore- But the information needs of different policymakers casts more accessible to policymakers. often vary widely. How can scientists provide forecasts ■ Forecasters should characterize uncertainty in fore- that policymakers find useful, timely, and credible? How casts in ways that help decisionmakers reduce risks. can information from forecasts best be incorporated into environmental law and policy? How should scientists characterize the uncertainty inherent in many forecasts? SESSIONS ON LINKING SYSTEMS AND USERS How can decision support systems and other tools be used and configured to more effectively provide infor- 2. Improving the usefulness mation to policymakers? of environmental information for personal decisionmaking Targeted Recommendations Members of the public are looking for information they ■ Skilled translators are needed to communicate among can use in their daily lives. At the same time, they feel over- policymakers, the business community, nongovern- whelmed by the vast quantity and often unhelpful presen- mental organizations, the public, and researchers. tation of information available. They need the right infor- ■ The National Council for Science and the Environ- mation in formats they can use. Government agencies and ment and other organizations should create more ven- other information providers need to understand the infor- ues for researchers, policymakers, and the media to mation needs of diverse potential users in order to design connect. systems and products that are relevant and valuable. ■ Colleges and universities, scientific and professional The process of information generation and dissemi- organizations, and other groups should train more nation involves multiple stages that may not be shared scientists to communicate effectively with decision- by all of the target organizations. Thus the process has makers. been divided into the component stages and detailed rec- ■ Colleges, universities, and other organizations should ommendations are provided for each stage. create new incentives for researchers to communicate science-based forecasts to decisionmakers and society Targeted Recommendations at large. ■ Educators should make innovative use of technologies Data Collection and Processing to help make environmental issues understandable to ■ Public organizations should involve representatives of students from K-12 through post-graduate levels. public user sectors in data collection. Government ■ Colleges, universities, and funding agencies should pro- agencies should provide repositories for scientific data vide incentives for interdisciplinary training of students. collected by citizens. ■ The Science and Technology Policy Fellowship Pro- ■ Government agencies and other organizations should gram of the American Association for the Advance-

48 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES TARGETED RECOMMENDATIONS

move toward distributed, interoperable data collection ■ Websites should provide information about subjects at and dissemination systems. several levels of complexity (e.g., information on ■ Data providers should consider the needs of the infor- drinking water quality should provide explanations mation consumers. and definitions of contaminant risk and criteria). ■ Information providers should strive for simplicity, Content and Interpretation using extensive visual and graphical content and ■ Providers of environmental information should ana- avoiding complex presentation of data. lyze their audience—its level of knowledge and information needs—before selecting content and methods Use for interpretation. ■ Providers of environmental information should focus ■ Environmental information intended to help with on enhancing its usefulness for personal decisions or public decisionmaking should be integrated with both actions. social and economic data to provide a holistic view. ■ Providers of environmental information should ■ Government agencies and partner organizations develop dissemination approaches for a variety of should work toward standardization of key environ- audiences. mental indicators for use in interpreting environmen- ■ Providers of environmental information should devel- tal data and for assessing environmental changes. The op content that can be used by students and educators suite of major economic indicators may serve as a to explore the analysis and interpretation of the data. model. ■ Environmental information providers should coordi- ■ Websites with environmental information should nate their efforts to provide specialized information for include simplified datasets so that science teachers, different uses and different user groups. students, and others can do their own calculations. ■ Conclusions about environmental data should be Marketing accompanied by sufficient data for citizens to perform ■ Providers of environmental information should better their own analyses. analyze audience characteristics and needs of various ■ The content and interpretation of environmental customer groups to increase success in generating information should provide a coherent story that is of interest and affecting personal decisionmaking. interest to non-scientists and assists in personal deci- ■ Distributors of environmental information should rec- sionmaking. ognize differences among users, meet the needs of different users for differing types of information, and use Presentation the most appropriate technology to deliver informa- ■ Presentation is key to the acceptance of environmental tion to each group. information. The choice of technology for information ■ Organizations that provide information to the public dissemination should be based on a focused analysis of should build alliances with the media, while recogniz- the intended audience and the needs of information ing potential conflicts between news and entertain- consumers. In some cases, print media is more appro- ment. priate than a website. ■ The impact of environmental information can be ■ Environmental information should be provided at increased if the message is delivered by a credible spatial and temporal scales of interest to the con- spokesperson with high public recognition. sumer. Information providers should include a local perspective whenever possible. Information should be presented at multiple spatial and temporal scales if appropriate.

49 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES TARGETED RECOMMENDATIONS

● Using current events as learning opportunities. SESSIONS ON LINKING SYSTEMS AND USERS ● Linking information for K-12 educators to national and state standards. 3. Sharing forecasting ■ The media and universities, with help from scientists information with users and feedback from the public, should foster the professional development of journalists who cover science. Scientists and non-scientists need to work together to ■ The White House Office of Science and Technology design environmental forecasting networks and public Policy should establish an interagency committee to interfaces that foster public interest and meet public coordinate the public outreach and educational com- needs. Society benefits when people think ahead and ponents of the Global Earth Observation System of know what environmental issues to watch out for. How Systems (GEOSS) and other environmental forecasting can both long- and short-term environmental forecasts programs. Such a committee should: contribute to public understanding and action? What ● Provide feedback to scientists and engineers tools are needed to allow citizens to use the environmen- who are analyzing forecasting data. tal forecasting data and networks? What do recent natu- ● Identify and collaborate with programs for ral disasters (e.g., Indian Ocean tsunami and California communicating environmental forecasting to floods) teach about environmental forecasting? the public. ■ NCSE should, in collaboration with conference partic- Targeted Recommendations ipants, undertake a marketing study to: ● Discover the public’s needs for scientific infor- ■ The media, educators, and scientists should work mation. together to help the public personalize environmental ● Discover the public’s sense of environmental issues. Environmental information should be made place, values, and use. clear and relevant to people and offer solutions or ● Investigate whether public needs match those actions. assumed by scientists. ■ Science communicators should work with the media ● Discover what motivates and empowers the on education and outreach campaigns including: public to use environmental forecasting data. ■ ● Packaging information for media outlets. NCSE and related organizations should identify and ● Working with practitioners to develop unified disseminate a small number of fundamental concepts messages. in environmental science that can help elevate scien- ● Working with educators to transfer knowl- tific literacy. These concepts can become a platform for edge in appropriate formats. future understanding. ● Incorporating positive messages instead of negative, fear-inducing messages. ■ Science communicators should provide a context for SESSIONS ON LINKING SYSTEMS AND USERS scientific information that allows the public to under- 4. Improving academic programs stand how science is conducted, including: ● Opportunities for hands-on and curiosity- to prepare the next generation based learning. of forecasters ● Incorporating hands-on learning using real- time data and predictions. Environmental forecasting includes a variety of activities ● Improving the visualization of science, ideas, from the creation and use of technologies for collecting and concepts.

50 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES TARGETED RECOMMENDATIONS

data to the transformation of data into useful informa- ing, math, and writing units. tion to its communication to the public and decision- ● Improving enrichment outreach programs makers. Although individuals may specialize in a single (e.g., summer camps and after-school pro- activity, they should have some understanding of the grams) by recruiting subject-matter experts overall process and the roles of others in the process. (university faculty, graduate students, and What skills should forecasters of various types have? practicing professionals). What kinds of education and training should colleges ● Informing students about career opportunities and universities provide? What preparation is useful at and career paths in environmental forecasting the pre-college and post-graduate levels? and decisionmaking. ● Encouraging the adoption of state-level man- Targeted Recommendations dates to teach concepts of environmental science and environmental change forecasting. ■ Institutions of higher education should overcome dis- ● Incorporating instruction on probability and ciplinary barriers to effective instruction by: uncertainty as well as change across temporal ● Creating incentives for hiring and promoting and spatial scales. interdisciplinary faculty. ■ Higher educational institutions should strengthen the ● Developing interdisciplinary courses and sem- link between researchers and policy officials through inars. communication and political strategies. ● Promoting interdisciplinary research. ■ The environmental science community should utilize ● Facilitating inter-college collaboration (espe- backcasting, nowcasting, and forecasting as an alterna- cially for education and science faculty). tive means to visualize the future over various tempo- ● Establishing curricula that incorporate prob- ral and spatial scales. lem-based learning. ■ NCSE’s Council of Environmental Deans and Directors ● Incorporating concepts of probability, uncer- should establish and maintain a clearinghouse of edu- tainty, and temporal/spatial change into envi- cational exemplars and best practices for educational ronmental curricula. instruction. ● Encouraging internships and fieldwork aimed at solving environmental problems in partnership with private and public sector SESSIONS ON LINKING SYSTEMS AND USERS organizations. 5. Providing real-time ● Infusing general education curricula with environmental examples, forecasting con- forecasts—How to assess cepts, and data use. and meet user needs ● Building leadership, teamwork, and communication skills among faculty and students. Real-time forecasts are special cases where short-term ● Providing professional development opportu- needs of users must be met. Real-time forecasts can lit- nities to infuse interdisciplinary approaches erally save lives or cost lives depending upon the effec- into K-12 curricula. tiveness of communicating an accurate, timely, and ● Preparing forecasters to integrate relevant dis- understandable forecast to the users. What can be ciplinary insights into their forecasts. learned from successful real-time forecasting programs? ■ Schools and others involved in K-12 education should How can these lessons be applied in other situations? increase environmental science literacy by: ● Integrating environmental science into read-

51 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES TARGETED RECOMMENDATIONS

Targeted Recommendations and maintain appropriate forecasting technologies and ensure the delivery of appropriate information prod- ■ The private sector should initiate partnerships to ucts for decisionmaking. help identify user communities and their technical ■ The U.S. government, in cooperation with interna- and functional requirements for receiving real-time tional partners, should ensure that key information, forecasts. such as forecasts and warnings, is delivered to local ■ The private sector should establish an iterative stakeholders. approach to balance the immediate needs of users with ■ U.S. organizations should ensure that their in-country limitations of current technologies and approaches; it partners have capacities (e.g., training, infrastructure, should facilitate the development of new technologies fundraising capability) that facilitate the long-term and approaches to meet user needs. sustainability of their joint initiatives. ■ The research community, government agencies, and ■ Data providers should ensure that data are fully docu- the private sector should collaborate with users to mented in order to be applicable to multiple current develop “intelligent” indices of change that would and future uses. synthesize and evaluate inputs of multiple types and ■ The U.S. government, academia, nongovernmental sources of data to provide relevant information for organizations, and other institutions should recognize individual and organizational decisionmaking. and support international efforts to bridge the gap between research and decisionmaking. ■ The U.S. government should continue to encourage SESSIONS ON CONNECTING INSTITUTIONS reciprocal “free and open” data policy as a basis for promoting science for societal benefit. 6. Integrating U.S. efforts ■ The U.S. government should support the United with international initiatives Nations and its agencies to implement international projects for environmental forecasting. The United States has extensive experience integrating ■ The U.S. government should act to allow passage of environmental science efforts with international initia- appropriate scientific instrumentation across inter- tives. The success of the Global Earth Observation national borders without delay or confiscation of System of Systems (GEOSS) will depend on the leader- materials. ship of the United States and other nations in creating ■ U.S. organizations should promote international envi- transparent global systems with maximum sharing of ronmental education programs as a way to secure data. The following recommendations are designed to future scientific capacity necessary for forecasting improve environmental forecasting through improved environmental changes. integration of U.S. efforts with international initiatives.

Targeted Recommendations SESSIONS ON CONNECTING INSTITUTIONS 7. Linking levels of government: ■ U.S. organizations embarking on international environmental forecasting projects should build on exist- Federal-state-local ing in-country science programs, utilize and expand local forecasting capacity, and respect indigenous envi- Successful environmental forecasting requires strong ronmental knowledge. collaboration within and across federal, state, and local ■ The U.S. government and the scientific community, in governments. Invasive species, water pollution, and air cooperation with international partners, should design pollution are examples of environmental changes that

52 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES TARGETED RECOMMENDATIONS

readily cross political boundaries using air currents, ■ National councils and interagency bodies should work water flow, and other means of dispersal. In some cases, with state and regional government councils and gov- environmental forecasting and intergovernmental col- ernmental associations, such as the National Associa- laboration can foster preventative measures that limit the tion of Counties (NACo) and the Environmental spread of environmental problems. Council of the States (ECOS), to enhance horizontal Different levels of government collect environmen- and vertical communication. tal data for a variety of uses, including forecasting. ■ A single baseline standard should be established for Although government agencies have different uses for collecting and reporting metadata (the data that data of different types, quality, and applications, there is describe the data), leveraging existing efforts, and pro- great value in sharing data and information within and viding financial incentives to ensure participation. across levels of government. The National Environ- ■ Universities should convene local conferences—mod- mental Exchange Network (NEEN), a data-sharing part- eled after NCSE’s national conference, the extension nership that links state and federal environmental agen- network of the National Sea Grant College Program, or cies, provides a model for collaboration. Successful col- similar activities—to create bridges with their commu- laboration requires understanding the characteristics nities at the state and local levels. and needs of the partnering organizations, engaging ■ Environmental forecasters should explore opportuni- partners at the beginning to build systems of mutual util- ties for expanded uses of technologies like GIS by ity, and providing incentives for participation. decisionmakers at all levels of government. ■ A federal-state-local governmental partnership should Targeted Recommendations create a clearinghouse of environmental forecasting data and provide public access to the data in ways that ■ Governments at all levels (federal, state, and local) do not require advanced technical knowledge. should refine environmental data exchange networks through continual, cross-disciplinary, cross-community dialogue. This will educate and encourage contrib- SESSIONS ON CONNECTING INSTITUTIONS utors, decisionmakers, and other users of the network. It will also help develop standards and a common lan- 8. Cross-sectoral connections: guage to better ensure the accuracy, reliability, and Engaging the private sector as a integrity of the network data. ■ Through cross-community dialogue, governments partner with the government should identify and develop incentives to aid in the The private sector has the potential to become an equal nationwide acceptance and use of environmental partner with government agencies in creating environ- exchange networks. mental forecasting systems. However, a variety of struc- ■ Developers of environmental forecasting systems tural, financial, cultural, and knowledge barriers are cur- should involve users from the beginning of the design rently limiting partnerships with the private sector. process, ensuring that such systems will meet user Concerted efforts by educators, researchers, policymak- needs and provide direct societal benefits. ers, government managers, and industry leaders are need- ■ A cross-disciplinary and cross-media intergovernmen- ed to improve the situation. What are successful exam- tal framework should be established to promote an ples within the United States? What lessons can be open and ongoing dialogue between scientists and learned from them? How should they be applied in other decisionmakers to determine what data are needed for situations? reliable environmental forecasting and to set priorities for data needs.

53 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES TARGETED RECOMMENDATIONS

Targeted Recommendations agencies about the value and outcomes of the public investment. ■ Congress should place environmental observing sys- ■ Business and management schools should develop tems on the list of critical infrastructure of national courses and curricula to train the next generation of importance. Environmental observing systems provide business leaders to use forecasts in their business deci- information needed to safeguard the nation’s environ- sions and planning. This education will help to ensure mental resources and economic infrastructure, such as continued business applications of environmental the power grid, water systems, and transport corri- forecasting information. dors. The critical infrastructure designation will facili- ■ Government agencies should support the develop- tate funding for the full deployment and long-term ment of sector-specific, decision-support systems. This operation of an integrated environmental forecasting will help to create demand for environmental forecast- system. The NOAA NEDSIS satellites have already ing information from the business community. been placed on the critical infrastructure list. ■ A partnership development entity or “Council of Coun- ■ Guidance documents should be prepared to inform cils” should be established to develop protocols and national, state, and local governments how to incor- processes for complex, multi-sectoral, multi-stakehold- porate environmental forecasting information into er partnerships. The Council of Councils would provide useful products for achieving their development goals a high-level systems view with multidisciplinary input (e.g.,. Millennium Development Goals of nations and in development of guidance and procedures for part- economic goals of states). Such documentation would nership development and operation. enhance support from international, national, state ■ University business and management faculty should and local interests for funding of observing systems. conduct research to develop optimal strategies for the ■ A long-term financial investment strategy and timeline formation and maintenance of cross-sectoral global should be developed to demonstrate the changing partnerships for environmental forecasting. nature of the funding sources as environmental ■ Congress or the Department of Commerce should cre- observing and forecasting systems transition from ate an award analogous to the Malcolm Baldridge research to operations. This timeline could be based National Quality Award that would recognize success- on an accepted “commercialization strategy.” All ful public/private partnerships in environmental fore- potential funding partners (federal, state, local, and casting. business) should be at the table in the initial stages to ■ Groups involved in environmental forecasting should plan their investment. The funding strategy should be work with business associations (e.g., Business Round based on realistic cost analyses. Tables, World Business Council on Sustainable ■ All stakeholders in public/private partnerships should Development, and international, national, state, and be involved early in the design phase. This will ensure local chambers of commerce) to educate their member- that the development of environmental information ship about the relevance of environmental forecasting. and forecasting systems is based on user requirements ■ The federal government should provide short- and and user concepts of operations, scale, and format. long-term incentives for businesses to participate in ■ Developers of forecasting systems should place greater environmental forecasting partnerships. emphasis on developing economic performance met- ■ The federal government should create a program mod- rics, success stories, and other means of demonstrat- eled after the Small Business Incentives for Research ing economic value and social performance to users program to provide transitional funding for commer- and partners. Such information can help to educate cialization of large-scale forecasting systems. the business community about the utility of environ- ■ Congress should support pilot projects such as model- mental forecast information and inform government ing test beds for the design and development of envi-

54 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES TARGETED RECOMMENDATIONS

ronmental forecasting systems prior to funding large- observations and indicators for documenting and fore- scale operational projects. casting/predicting environmental conditions and ■ Government agencies should examine the structural trends. arrangements in projects and programs involving pub- ■ The federal government should ensure that long-term, lic/private partnerships to foster equal partnerships. institutionalized homes for critical datasets are sus- ■ Business should present sector-specific business plans tained. This need should be recognized in any future addressing environmental forecasting for economic planning for observational and forecasting systems. development to Congress, the Organization for ■ A public dialogue is needed to develop a system of Economic Development and Cooperation, and other indicators of environmental conditions that is analo- relevant organizations. gous to the commonly used economic indicators. Such a system is feasible, but it is clearly a research and development task at this time. SESSIONS ON SCIENTIFIC AND ■ A national clearinghouse for environmental data TECHNOLOGICAL CONNECTIONS should be established within an institutional framework that provides appropriate expertise and inde- 9. Linking ocean, atmospheric, pendence from political influence. The clearinghouse and terrestrial observation would provide objective, unbiased information (including a system of indicators of environmental and forecasting systems conditions) for use by any interested party in ways that they specify. Many oceanic, atmospheric, and terrestrial observation ■ Additional research and development are needed to systems exist. However, few of these systems are inter- provide the cyberinfrastructure necessary to support a operable. There are major opportunities for system inte- system (or systems) for environmental observations gration but major challenges in achieving it. How can and forecasting. the infrastructure be more compatible? What efficiencies ■ Organizations involved in environmental observation and economies of scale exist? What cyberinfrastructure and forecasting systems should work with users in a components can be shared and what aspects require cus- coordinated effort to educate Congress about the soci- tomization or unique solutions? Can members of the etal benefits of these forecasting systems and the need Interagency Working Group on Earth Observations for sufficient and sustained investment. (IWGEO) obtain the data they need by coordinating ■ The development of any environmental observation existing environmental observatories and long-term data and forecasting system—including those that would streams (from USGS, USDA, NOAA, and other agencies) be built on existing networks—needs case studies, or do they need new platforms that could be implement- demonstration studies, and experiments to determine ed through the National Ecological Observatory what is feasible and to identify the limiting factors for Network or the ocean observing platforms that are under further expansion. development? What other systems are needed? Can global observation systems be built by accretion, and can they become more than the sums of their parts?

Targeted Recommendations

■ A national, multi-stakeholder dialogue should be established to discuss a system of environmental

55 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES TARGETED RECOMMENDATIONS

● The media should play a greater role in com- SESSIONS ON SCIENTIFIC AND municating information about environmental TECHNOLOGICAL CONNECTIONS conditions and forecasts. ● NCSE and other non-governmental organiza- 10. Integrating economic, social, tions should educate Members of Congress and environmental forecasting about the state of knowledge on the environment (e.g., global change) and the applicabil- One of the biggest challenges in the environmental field ity and usefulness of forecasts. Explanations is to effectively engage social scientists in areas that have of environmental change or impacts should be been traditionally dominated by natural scientists. A first provided in economic terms and quantified at step is to recognize existing economic and social fore- the local level. casting systems and demonstrate that our ability to fore- ■ Organizations should work together to develop met- cast the conditions of humanity and the planet will be rics of sustainability that could be used to evaluate a improved when these forecasting systems are integrated wide range of products. These metrics should integrate with forecasting systems for the natural environment. social and environmental factors, building on the Where has this integration been done effectively? What USDA’s organic food certification program and other are the barriers and how can they be overcome? What examples. lessons can be applied to future collaboration? ■ The National Science Foundation should further recognize the value of interdisciplinary environmental Targeted Recommendations research and increase funding for research on complex environmental systems, including NSF’s priority area Group A Recommendations: on biocomplexity in the environment. NOAA and ■ Universities should alter their reward systems in order other mission agencies should increase investments in to facilitate integration among disciplines. The and support for interdisciplinary environmental National Science Foundation should expand and research. ■ increase support for programs that foster collaborative A high-level interagency initiative should be estab- interdisciplinary integration, such as the Integrated lished to explore connections between homeland secu- Graduate Education, Research and Training (IGERT) rity and environmental forecasting, including agricul- program. The National Academy of Sciences should ture, development, and environmental health. ■ foster additional collaborative, interdisciplinary envi- The social sciences should play a role from the outset ronmental research and elect more members who con- in merging variables of complex natural and social sys- duct this type of research. These changes should be tems; this requires disciplinary depth and interdisci- spearheaded by leaders of these institutions and by plinary integration. ■ individuals involved in the collaborations. Universities should become more engaged in integrat- ■ Improvements in communications are needed to ed environmental, social, and economic forecasting in achieve better integration of social and environmental the regions in which they are located. ■ forecasting: Researchers involved in environmental forecasting ● Funding agencies should develop simple visual- should understand the role of national and local polit- ization tools that clearly communicate the state ical systems as barriers to, or supporters of, effective of science and levels of risk with respect to par- environmental management. The role of the social sci- ticular issues. Visualization tools are likely to ences in achieving this understanding should be aid in the discovery of new knowledge in addi- defined clearly. ■ tion to conveying information to the public. NASA, USGS, NSF, and NOAA should study how envi-

56 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES TARGETED RECOMMENDATIONS

ronmental information at multiple spatial and temporal sustainability (including resource consump- scales is communicated at various institutional levels. tion), and ecology. ■ Government agencies should expand their efforts to ● College and university presidents, deans, and evaluate the societal impacts of environmental appropriate governing associations should changes. For example, NOAA should increase its encourage faculty, students, and administra- efforts to explain the impacts of events such as coastal tors of interdisciplinary programs to collabo- storm surges. NIH should further examine the costs of rate in developing and applying relevant increases in childhood asthma by region under differ- coursework, content, and research. ent scenarios of environmental change. ■ Researchers should engage local communities in the processes of gathering biological information that Group B Recommendations: indicates climate and environmental changes as well as ■ Federal agencies should allocate significant funding for related health risk factors and translating and sharing interdisciplinary environmental research that incorpo- that information for local, regional, and global use. rates physical and social sciences and local knowledge in ways that build local capacity to better manage local resources. This research should be used to understand SESSIONS ON SCIENTIFIC AND broader geographic impacts and to develop or support TECHNOLOGICAL CONNECTIONS public education campaigns. For example: ● Science agencies should increase investments 11. Working across spatial in research that identifies meaningful indica- scales: From molecular to global tors of human health, animal health, and environmental change that can be useful on a local Environmental forecasting will benefit from an extraor- level and that may have global implications. dinary variety of new molecular techniques that have ● Science agencies should increase investments become available in recent years and additional tech- in research that identifies alternative solutions niques that will become available soon. These tech- and incentives as substitutes for practices that niques provide opportunities for connecting researchers are hazardous to human health and the envi- working at the molecular level and the plot level, along ronment. with others who are bringing together work at the plot ● Science agencies should increase investments level and the landscape/regional level. How can we over- in social science research to better understand come the challenges of linking environmental models decisionmaking processes related to the envi- and forecasts across a broad range of spatial scales? ronment. ● The environmental education community Targeted Recommendations should assess, update, and develop environmental education expectations and stan- ■ The federal government should create a national cen- dards—at all levels—to build and increase ter for studying spatial scaling across molecular, land- common knowledge. scape, regional, and global levels of environmental ● The U.S. Department of Education and other forecasting. education agencies should support interdisci- ■ Government agencies should support workshops to plinary studies (integrating natural and social develop connections among ecological data from dif- sciences) at the primary and secondary educa- ferent scales: tion levels. Relevant fields of study include ● The National Science Foundation should sup- human and physical geography, biogeography, port post-doctoral fellowships and sabbatical

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leave opportunities to define scaling needs in diverse databases with regional climate change model environmental forecasting. simulations can provide a powerful forecasting tool for ● Government agencies should improve connec- communities, businesses, state and federal government tions among scientists in different fields who planners, and policy makers. are working on environmental forecasting. ■ The scientific community should determine which Targeted Recommendations large-scale environmental questions are amenable to molecular approaches: ■ Federal science agencies should support research and ● Federal agencies should support workshops tools that improve our ability to incorporate nonlin- to address this issue. earity, feedback, and threshold changes in regional ● Federal agencies should support research to environmental forecasting. identify important knowledge gaps in envi- ■ To improve environmental forecasting at regional ronmental forecasting based on molecular scales, federal science agencies and universities should processes. increase support for interdisciplinary environmental ■ Federal agencies should increase support for bioinfor- research and education. matics research on gene-environment interactions: ■ Federal science agencies should be encouraged to con- ● An interagency initiative should be estab- vene interdisciplinary peer review panels to evaluate lished to explore variations in gene expression interdisciplinary research proposals (especially region- and other molecular processes across the al scale projects). Disciplinary peer review panels may environmental range of an important species. not be able to provide adequate reviews of interdisci- ■ Universities should strengthen multidisciplinary envi- plinary proposals. ronmental training by exposing students to multiple ■ New ways of visualizing regional forecasts are needed fields, rewarding faculty for conducting interdiscipli- to improve communication with decisionmakers and nary research, building on the success of NSF’s the public. Integrated Graduate Education, Research and Training ■ Decisionmakers should be educated about decision (IGERT) program, and other mechanisms. analysis models and encouraged to use appropriate models to explore regional forecasting scenarios. ■ Improvements in data collection and data manage- SESSIONS ON SCIENTIFIC AND ment are needed to improve regional environmental TECHNOLOGICAL CONNECTIONS forecasting: ● Researchers should develop data sets for 12. Forecasting environmental working across scales and for validating change of the landscape results. ● Researchers should develop tools to extrapo- at a regional scale late from existing data sets and to integrate disparate data sets. Modeling climate, environmental, and landscape change ● Science agencies should provide incentives to at regional scales can provide the high spatial resolution improve data sharing and data management. forecasts needed for many decisionmaking activities. A ● Decisionmakers should work with researchers wealth of regional data on vegetation, wildlife, surface to assess acceptable levels of uncertainty in and ground water hydrology, human activities, and other forecasts that serve as the basis for decisions natural resources is available in government, state, non- or warnings and to determine the quality and profit, and university databases. Integration of these quantity of data required for such forecasts.

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■ Federal science agencies should support multi-scale incorporated into long-term, large-scale observation approaches to regional environmental forecasting, and forecasting systems? How can long-term data sets including: and time-series analyses provide information for short- ● Multiple spatial and temporal scales. term needs? ● Multiple levels of biological organization (e.g., species and ecosystems). Targeted Recommendations ● Interactions across scales. ● Interactions across disciplines (e.g., physical, ■ Organizations engaged in ecological forecasting biological, and social sciences). should consider temporal and spatial scales in an inte- ■ Federal science agencies should support multi-scale grated fashion when developing models and monitor- approaches in order to understand system dynamics ing systems. that emerge at different scales. ■ The White House Office of Science and Technology ■ Scientists should help conservation and natural Policy (OSTP) should adopt the 1997 report, Integrat- resources managers adopt multi-scale approaches. ing the Nation’s Environmental Monitoring and Research ■ To improve the use and effectiveness of regional scale Networks and Programs: A Proposed Framework, by the environmental forecasts: Environmental Monitoring Team of the Committee on ● A diverse range of stakeholders (e.g., public, Environment and Natural Resources of the National private, and business) should be involved in Science and Technology Council. All federal agencies the forecasting process from the outset. should describe their environmental monitoring activ- ● Researchers and decisionmakers should agree ities within that framework. at the outset to define safe ranges for systems ■ OSTP should summarize the monitoring efforts of all parameters within which there is an acceptable federal agencies and describe the type of monitoring, likelihood of safety, such as resilience to cli- the tools used, and the participants in various levels of mate change or natural hazards. decisionmaking. ■ Federal and state agencies using adaptive management approaches should include both monitoring and eco- SESSIONS ON SCIENTIFIC AND logical forecasting as part of adaptive management. TECHNOLOGICAL CONNECTIONS ■ Federal and state agencies should accelerate implementation of systems approaches in ecological moni- 13. Working across temporal toring and forecasting. scales—Integrating short-term ■ Practitioners in ecological forecasting should involve stakeholders in setting explicit timeframes for the and long-term approaches forecasts. ■ The National Science Foundation should support The users of environmental forecasts vary with the tem- social science research on the perceived value of poral and spatial scale of the conclusions. Community ecosystem services to various societal components as planners and businesses may be interested primarily in well as the factors that affect the credibility of an eco- forecasts at local spatial scales and at time scales that logical forecast. range from several seasons to several years into the ■ NCSE should work to bring together representatives of future. Government policy makers may be interested in businesses that are utilizing ecological forecasts in forecasts over a broad range of scales of time and space. their business decisions in order to determine their How can the needs of various users efficiently be met? forecasting needs. How can measurements of short-term or local change be

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izen science and to build understanding and support SESSIONS ON SCIENTIFIC AND for initiatives utilizing environmental sensor net- TECHNOLOGICAL CONNECTIONS works. ■ Researchers should communicate the value of new 14. Facilitating the development environmental sensor networks to the economic, secu- of environmental sensors and rity, and environmental interests of the nation. ■ Researchers should be careful to recognize and address sensor networks challenges in the broad deployment of sensors and sensor networks that would provide data for funda- Sensors are important components of environmental mental research, modeling, forecasting, and decision- forecasting systems. Deployment of evolving sensor net- making. Challenges include capturing adequately the works will provide the varied data necessary to develop spatial and temporal variability of the environment, models that will apply across multiple scales. Achieving consistent measurements across various media (e.g., the necessary sensors will require multidisciplinary col- nitrate in water, soils, and air), long-term continuity, laboration among engineers, natural and social scien- sensor comparability, and system and sensor integrity tists, and computer scientists. (e.g., biofouling or failure). ■ Fundamental research is needed to achieve robust coupling of sensors, modeling, and forecasting. Advances Targeted Recommendations in cyberinfrastructure are needed to effectively capture data from sensors and incorporate data into models. ■ New partnerships should be fostered to optimize the Tools need to be developed to better simulate, visual- evolution of sensor technologies for environmental ize, and make predictions and communicate results to forecasting. Creative partnerships with the biomedical the full range of users. field, the commercial sector (e.g., forestry, energy, and ■ Additional environmental synthesis centers should be fisheries), and government agencies should be devel- established. One such center should focus on assess- oped to leverage emerging and existing innovations in ing and synthesizing data from diverse sensors, net- sensor technology and to exploit unanticipated oppor- works, and observing systems. tunities. ■ Environmental sensors and sensor networks should be recognized as critical tools enabling environmental SESSIONS ON SCIENTIFIC AND managers and decisionmakers in the private and pub- TECHNOLOGICAL CONNECTIONS lic sectors to make informed decisions critical to the economic, security, and environmental interests of the 15. Fusion and integration nation. of satellite remote-sensing ■ Decisionmakers and other stakeholders should be engaged in the design and deployment of environmen- and ground-based observations tal sensors and sensor networks to maximize their and presentation for value to users and the general public. The needs and capabilities of data users and decisionmakers should environmental policy be recognized and addressed as central to the value of sensors and sensor networks. Satellite remote sensing represents a tremendous ■ Local community groups and educators should be resource for monitoring and forecasting environmental engaged, where possible, to advance education and cit- change, but these complex datasets often need to be inte-

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grated with ground-based data that have direct relevance makers. These techniques and templates should be to policy, the environment, and human health. Data from distributed widely. satellite sensors often exist in formats that are difficult ■ The public and private sectors should develop on-line for scientists from other fields and the public to use and systems to enable remote sensing data streams to be understand, even though their application has been used by a wide range of end users. demonstrated for problems as diverse as air and water ■ The White House and Congress should issue a chal- pollution, desertification, habitat destruction, ocean lenge and provide funding to create a complete, inte- dead zones, and climate change, among many others. grated, Earth-system model (including oceans, atmosphere, biosphere, and land). Targeted Recommendations

■ Collectors of ground-based data should ensure that SESSIONS ON SCIENTIFIC AND their data are high quality, standardized, geo-refer- TECHNOLOGICAL CONNECTIONS enced, and distributed in a timely way to users. Ade- quate data continuity and funding for collection and 16. Examining the role of distribution of key ground-based datasets also needs to eco-informatics in be ensured. ■ Data providers—including such agencies as NASA, environmental decisionmaking NOAA, and USGS—should better serve end-users and operational communities in addition to research com- Environmental decisionmakers at all levels of govern- munities. Data providers should develop more prod- ment (local, state, national, and international) seek to ucts that meet end user needs by using both remote integrate ecological and environmental information sensing and ground-based data streams. (eco-informatics) into resource management, oversight, ■ The Group on Earth Observations and the world com- and policy decisions. While decisionmakers may explore munity should develop products and services to a wide variety of information sources through informa- demonstrate the status and trends of the health of var- tion providers and data managers, they are faced (often ious environmental media (air, land, and water) and indirectly) with many information challenges, including environmental goods and services for decisionmaking data gaps, data integration, data presentation, and how and policy development. These products and services to use or create appropriate indicators. should be usable by and useful for the entire world community. Targeted Recommendations ■ Data providers should meet the needs of end users who rely on consistent and continuous time series ■ The federal government should increase its investment data for policy-based environmental monitoring and in interagency collaboration and partnerships involv- decisionmaking. ing eco-informatics tools to improve applications for ■ The natural resource research, management, and regu- environmental forecasting and decisionmaking. latory communities should place greater emphasis on ■ Government agencies engaging in joint environmental the generation, interpretation, and integration of geo- research projects should use appropriate eco-informat- botanical remote sensing and ground-based data for ics tools. use by environmental decisionmakers. ■ Researchers should take a more collaborative approach ■ Researchers should develop data visualization tech- to their forecasting research and planning to ensure niques for presentation of integrated satellite remote that the resulting information is meaningful to a broad sensing and ground-based data to high-level decision- range of decisionmakers and the general public. The

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involvement of broad user groups is critical from the Targeted Recommendations onset and throughout the collaborative process. ■ To improve environmental forecasting capabilities, ■ A multi-stakeholder working group should be estab- U.S. agencies should foster closer eco-informatics col- lished to define the role of cyberinfrastructure in envi- laborations with international environmental organi- ronmental forecasting. zations, particularly in areas that impact health, trade, ■ A university mentoring and exchange program should and economics. be established between domestic and international ■ U.S. science agencies should work more closely with higher education institutions to address common academia to create and sustain a viable national forum goals in environmental forecasting. on the nexus between research and innovation in the ■ A multi-organization initiative should be created, per- area of eco-informatics and forecasting. haps through the Global Earth Observation System of ■ In order to facilitate the transition from research to Systems, to document the development of each operations, researchers engaged in eco-informatics nation’s CI, identify obstacles for advancement, and applications for environmental forecasting should be provide constructive suggestions for future develop- encouraged to collaborate with potential users who ment and applications for environmental forecasting. have a stake in supporting implementation beyond the ■ The Institute for Higher Education Policy should research and prototype phases. establish a working group to explore the opportunity for tribal colleges to play a larger role in developing international CI applications of environmental fore- SESSIONS ON SCIENTIFIC AND casting, both because of their cultural connection to TECHNOLOGICAL CONNECTIONS the environment and recent examples of success in this area. 17. Cyberinfrastructure for all: ■ An organization such as the Environmental Infor- Connectivity, content, mation Coalition should develop an online database of environmental data sets in order to promote greater and collaboration awareness and use of existing information.

The emerging cyberinfrastructure (CI) will be an integrated system of computation, communication, and SESSIONS ON SCIENTIFIC AND information elements that supports a range of applica- TECHNOLOGICAL CONNECTIONS tions such as data sharing, remote operation of scientific instruments, and high-performance computing. 18. Linking environmental Cyberinfrastucture will make e-science possible by tying together researchers, educators, and students from indicators with forecasting around the globe. Cyberinfrastructure will create major opportunities and challenges for environmental forecast- There are an enormous number of environmental indi- ing. In order to achieve the CI vision, those involved cators. Many of them are indicators of process rather must identify and overcome barriers in resources or than indicators of outcome. Environmental indicators knowledge that might hinder the development or use of can play an important role in environmental assess- CI in some settings. Developers of CI need to take ments, models, forecasts, and decisions. To be useful in advantage of the opportunities that CI presents to enable forecasting, indicators should be presented in usable broader participation in cutting edge education and forms for the public. research activities.

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Targeted Recommendations ● Be linked to issues of public concern and interest. Communication ● Be robust, measurable, repeatable, and quan- ■ Organizations should use the most effective mecha- tifiable. nisms to communicate about indicators, using simple ● Be sensitive to change over time. and clear language. ● Be easy to communicate and understand. ■ Organizations using indicators should clearly identify and understand their target audiences. Aggregation of Indicators ■ Communication on indicators should involve discus- ■ Organizations that aggregate indicators should strive sion among researchers, policymakers, and the public. to develop models that: ■ Universities should teach communication skills about ● Integrate ecological, social, economic, and indicators as part of the curriculum. human health issues. ■ Organizations should develop communication strate- ● Borrow from other types of data modeling. gies for indicators that focus on popular topics—such ● Are transparent in how data are aggregated, as air, water, and birds—in order to capture the public and list assumptions. imagination and generate enthusiasm about indica- ● Recognize synergistic relationships. tors. Forecasting Models Leadership and Coordination ■ Organizations developing forecasting models should ■ A clearinghouse or series of clearinghouses on indica- strive to develop models that: tors should be established. Clearinghouses should be ● Incorporate historical context into their recognized as neutral entities that involve multiple models. organizations and enable broad comparability across a ● Fully reflect the complexity of systems. wide array of data sets. ● Account for non-linear patterns, processes, ■ A multi-stakeholder group should consolidate the and pathways. wide spectrum of indicators into a smaller set of core ● Establish benchmarks and baselines to enable indicators that drive improved environmental policy, accurate forecasting. planning, and management. ● Use the full range of forecasting tools, includ- ■ A multi-stakeholder group should develop a common ing risk assessment, vulnerability analyses, language and approach for indicators. This would enable and predictive analyses. crosscutting analyses of a wide range of indicators. Decision Support Systems and Tools Attributes of Effective Indicators ■ Organizations using and developing indicators should ■ Government agencies and other organizations and strive to develop effective decision-support tools and agencies should strive for robust, efficient, and effec- systems that use the indicators to tell a story. Such tive environmental indicators. Environmental indica- decision support systems should: tors should be: ● Enable adaptive management. ● Grounded in sound science. ● Meet user needs. ● Have a clear rationale. ● Enable performance measurement (e.g., score- ● Be temporally and spatially explicit. cards). ● Have clear thresholds that are linked to eco- ● Enable target setting. logical thresholds. ● Prioritize data and information according to the ● Drive improved behavior. end use.

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● Incorporate cost-benefit analyses. ■ Indicator development is emerging as an important ● Consider using “trend” and “key” indicators area of research in itself. Academic institutions should as one way of ensuring efficient and timely actively foster research related to the development and decisions. use of indications (e.g., choosing key indicators and aggregating multiple data). Scale ■ Agencies that support environmental observations and ■ Organizations developing and using indicators should forecasting should ensure that the time horizons for ensure that the indicators are matched to the appro- funding are sufficient to match the time horizons of priate scale of the issue. For example, different audi- long-term monitoring and indicator projects. ences will be interested in environmental indicators at Institutionalization of key indicators may be beneficial different spatial scales, such as neighborhood, city, to developers and users of the indicators. county, state, national, and continental levels. Organizations should seek whenever possible to link indicators across appropriate scales (e.g., linking local SESSIONS ON SCIENTIFIC AND riparian condition indicators to watershed-scale water TECHNOLOGICAL CONNECTIONS quality indicators). 19. Moving from observation Appropriate Indicators to forecasting systems: ■ Since many issues are intertwined, organizations developing indicators should strive to consider link- Linking characterization, ages among ecological, social, economic, and human process research, modeling, health issues. An example of such linkages can be found in private companies that have adopted a “triple prediction, and delivery bottom line” indicator system that takes into account financial, environmental, and social considerations. There are often major disconnections among the differ- ■ Where possible, organizations should seek to develop ent elements necessary for environmental forecasting. indicators that cut across multiple issues, such as For example, the types of data needed to develop mod- water quality. els may differ from the types needed to provide a fore- ■ Academic institutions should conduct research on cast. Earth observatory platforms designed by basic how to choose effective indicators. researchers may not incorporate environmental forecast- ■ Organizations focusing on ecological indicators ing tools that are appropriate to the needs of policymak- should not shy away from complex data, but they ers. Some platforms should be designed to answer spe- should strive to develop indicators that effectively cific research questions and others to gather “baseline” reduce this complexity. data that are usable by many communities. There is much important research to be done using long-term Continuity of Data and Indicators data sets of all types. Long-term data sets can be used to ■ Academic institutions and other organizations that address more complex research questions through mod- collect and manage environmental data should ensure ern integration and synthesis of data. There are examples long-term data continuity in order to facilitate long- of successful approaches that address all the needs for term studies. useful forecasting. Designers of forecasting systems need ■ Organizations that develop and use indicators should to learn from previous efforts and move to a more uni- strive to use the same indicators over time in order to fied approach. detect trends.

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Targeted Recommendations ● Drawing in social scientists to help forecasters think in interdisciplinary terms. ■ Environmental forecasters should improve messaging ● Including caveats and/or probabilities where capabilities by: appropriate in environmental forecasts. ● Enhancing public environmental literacy. ■ Environmental forecasters should build modeling ● Better “packaging” and communicating the frameworks that can accommodate change and evolu- value of forecasting. tion of environmental forecasts. ● Seeking diverse, non-traditional partners. ■ Environmental forecasters should support reim- ● Improving quality and timeliness of informa- bursable funding projects to better engage local com- tion transfer to media. munities. ● Targeting messages to a K-12 audience and to ■ Environmental forecasters should use separate data a 6th grade literacy level. sets for model development and for model evaluation. ● Identifying and developing the most popular ■ Environmental forecasters should ensure that different indicators for stakeholders. modeling systems and data inputs are interoperable ● Focusing on user-based, bottom-up approaches. across different scales and linkable across platforms.

Chapter 6

CONCLUSION: PRIMARY RECOMMENDATIONS

he 5th National Conference on Science, Policy and the Environment: Forecasting Environmental Changes has resulted in a call for action: Now is the time to Tfully implement an integrated environmental forecasting system that will take the pulse of the planet, revolutionize our understanding of the Earth and its biosphere, and provide a broad range of societal and environmental benefits. Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES PRIMARY RECOMMENDATIONS

The general recommendations in this chapter have been drawn from a synthesis of the targeted recommen- RECOMMENDATION 2 dations in the previous chapter, focusing on the theme of making connections and improving integration. Build Strong Partnerships to Several crosscutting recommendations emerged from Facilitate Environmental the conference, including the need to engage user communities in environmental forecasting; to strengthen Forecasting partnerships among multiple stakeholders; to develop Strong partnerships among multiple stakeholders are data and information management systems to meet the necessary for building and sustaining environmental needs of diverse user communities; to advance multi- forecasting systems. disciplinary research on complex environmental processes, to develop innovative technologies for envi- ■ Strong partnerships across sectors—including govern- ronmental forecasting, and to improve education and ment, business, academia, and civil society—are need- outreach in order to achieve the intended societal bene- ed to optimize the design, development, operation, fits of the observing systems. and impact of environmental forecasting systems. ■ Strong partnerships across levels of government— local, state, and national—are needed to maximize the RECOMMENDATION 1 societal benefits of environmental forecasting systems. ■ Partnerships among U.S. federal agencies should be Engage Users in the Design, expanded and strengthened to achieve the goals of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Integrated Earth Observation Development, and Operation of System (2005) and related planning documents. Environmental Forecasting ■ Building on the rapid success of the Group on Earth Observations, international partnerships should be Systems expanded and strengthened to achieve the goals of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems 10-Year Effective user engagement is essential to the success Implementation Plan (2005) and related international of environmental forecasting systems. initiatives. ■ Incentives are needed to facilitate partnerships: ■ Engaging users in the design, development, and oper- ● The federal government should provide short- and ation of environmental forecasting systems is essential long-term incentives for businesses to participate for meeting user needs and achieving the intended in environmental forecasting partnerships. societal benefits. ● Science agencies and institutions of higher educa- ■ A diverse range of stakeholders from the public sector, tion should provide incentives to overcome barri- private sector, academic institutions, civil society, and ers to interdisciplinary research and education. community groups should be involved from the outset in identifying user requirements for environmental forecasting systems. ■ Ongoing user involvement is essential because user needs and forecasting capabilities will evolve over time.

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RECOMMENDATION 3 RECOMMENDATION 4 Improve Data and Information Advance Interdisciplinary Management Systems for Research on Environmental Environmental Forecasting Forecasting

Environmental forecasting systems will produce Improvements in environmental forecasting depend unprecedented quantities of data and information. on advances in fundamental scientific research. Managing and integrating this data and information to meet the needs of diverse user communities will ■ New resources, incentives, and institutional structures present enormous technical, financial, and manage- are needed to improve the integration of the social and ment challenges. natural sciences in forecasting environmental changes and in addressing the impacts of environmental ■ Environmental forecasting systems should integrate changes on humans. data across a wide variety of observing systems, disci- ■ Science agencies should support additional research on plines, institutions, spatial and temporal scales, and linkages across scales, disciplines, and media, including: levels of biological organization. ● Multiple spatial scales (e.g., molecular to global). ■ Large and sustained investments in data and informa- ● Multiple temporal scales (e.g., short- to long-term) tion systems are needed to ensure data continuity and ● Multiple levels of biological organization (e.g., stability, data access and integration, data and metada- species and ecosystems). ta standards, coordination of data providers, and inter- ● Interactions across scales. pretation of data for policymakers, educators, and ● Interactions across disciplines (e.g., physical, bio- other non-technical users. logical, Earth, and social sciences). ■ The federal government should ensure that long- ● Interactions across media (e.g., land, water, and air). term, institutionalized repositories for critical ● Fusion of ground-based observations with satel- datasets are sustained. This need should be recog- lite remote-sensing observations. nized in any future planning for observational and ■ Additional research is needed to improve our funda- forecasting systems. mental understanding of processes that cause environ- ■ A national clearinghouse for environmental data mental changes. Improvements in environmental fore- should be established within an institutional frame- casting are driven by advances in our fundamental work that provides appropriate expertise and inde- understanding of environmental processes. pendence from political influence. The clearinghouse ■ Additional research is needed to build robust models would provide objective, unbiased information— that have the capacity to forecast environmental including a system of indicators of environmental con- changes. Process studies should be incorporated into ditions—for use by any interested party in ways that environmental forecasting models. they specify. ■ Federal science agencies should increase their invest- ■ Government agencies and other organizations should ments in the interdisciplinary environmental research move toward distributed, interoperable data collection that forms the foundation for environmental forecasting. and dissemination systems. ● Additional research and tools are needed to improve our ability to incorporate nonlinearity, feedback, and thresholds in models of complex environmental systems.

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RECOMMENDATION 5 RECOMMENDATION 6 Develop and Deploy Innovative Improve Education, Outreach Technologies for Environmental and Communications to Forecasting Increase the Societal Benefits of Environmental Forecasts Recent and planned environmental observing systems will involve the design and deployment of new tech- Effective communication and education are essential nologies. for achieving the intended societal benefits of environmental forecasting systems. ■ Cyberinfrastructure will create major opportunities and challenges for environmental forecasting. A multi- ■ A forecast is not complete until it has been communi- stakeholder working group should be established to cated effectively to the user communities. Enormous define the role of cyberinfrastructure in environmental efforts are needed to improve the communication of forecasting. warnings and environmental forecasts to local popula- ■ Sensors and sensor networks are important compo- tions and to educate local populations how to respond nents of environmental forecasting systems. Rapid to warnings and forecasts. Improvements in commu- development and deployment of evolving sensor net- nication and education are necessary for achieving the works, including nanonets, are needed to provide the expected societal benefits of environmental forecasting data essential to capture the temporal and spatial vari- systems. ability necessary to develop models that will allow sci- ■ Researchers should explain how environmental fore- entists to answer questions across multiple scales. casting systems will benefit the economic, health, ■ Developing the necessary sensors will require multi- security, and environmental interests of the nation. disciplinary collaboration among engineers, natural ■ New ways of visualizing environmental forecasts are and social scientists, biomedical researchers, and com- needed to improve communication with decision puter scientists. makers and the public. ■ Additional fundamental research is needed to achieve ■ Domestic and international multidisciplinary environ- robust coupling of sensors, cyberinfrastructure, mod- mental education and outreach programs should be eling, process studies, and forecasting. expanded as a way to secure future scientific capacity ■ New molecular techniques have tremendous potential necessary for forecasting environmental changes and for facilitating integration across spatial scales and for to improve personal decisionmaking. improving environmental forecasts. The scientific ■ Greater emphasis should be placed on developing per- community should determine which large-scale envi- formance metrics and other means of evaluating the ronmental questions are amenable to molecular economic value and societal benefits of environmental approaches. forecasting systems. ■ Environmental forecasters should communicate information about the uncertainty of their forecasts as well as limitations of the data, models, and interpretations.

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RECOMMENDATION 7 Implement an Integrated Environmental Forecasting System

A coherent vision for environmental forecasting has been articulated by leading scientists and policy makers. Specific societal benefits and user requirements have been identified. While national and international bodies have endorsed strategic plans and implementation plans, it is now essential to move from planning to action.

■ Now is the time to fully implement an integrated environmental forecasting system that will take the pulse of the planet, revolutionize our understanding of the Earth and its biosphere, and provide a broad range of societal and environmental benefits. It should be a seamless system that integrates: ● Observations, characterization, process research, and model development. ● Forecasts, predictions, decision support tools, education, and communication. ● Policy and management decisions. ■ An integrated environmental forecasting system should evolve over time in response to advances in science and technology and changes in societal needs.

Chapter 7

APPENDICES

Appendix A: Agenda

Appendix B: Breakout Sessions

Appendix C: Poster Presentations

Appendix D: Exhibitors

Appendix E: Sponsors

Appendix F: NCSE University Affiliate Members

Appendix G: Conference Participants Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES APPENDIX A

Appendix A Agenda Forecasting Environmental Changes Fifth National Conference on Science, Policy and the Environment February 3-4, 2005, Washington, DC

D. James Baker,President and CEO, Academy of THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 3, 2005 Natural Sciences; Former Administrator, NOAA Charles Groat,Director, U.S. Geological Survey 8:00 AM Charles Kennel,Director, Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Former Associate Administrator, REGISTRATION & CONTINENTAL Mission to Planet Earth, NASA BREAKFAST Margaret Leinen, Assistant Director, Geosciences, National Science Foundation

9:00 AM WELCOME 11:00 AM Craig Schiffries, Conference Chair, National Council PLENARY ROUNDTABLE — DESIGNING for Science and the Environment ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING SYSTEMS Amb. Richard Benedick,President, National Council for Science and the Environment Ronald Pulliam (Moderator), Regents Professor, University of Georgia; Former Director, National 9:15 AM Biological Service; Former President, Ecological KEYNOTE ADDRESS Society of America Ann Bartuska, Deputy Chief for Research and James Gustave Speth,Dean, Yale School of Forestry & Development, U.S. Forest Service; Former President, Environmental Studies; Former Chair, White House Ecological Society of America Council on Environmental Quality; Recipient, Blue Gary Foley,Director, National Exposure Laboratory, Planet Prize U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Bruce Hayden,Professor, University of Virginia; Co- Director, National Ecological Observatory Network 10:00 AM (NEON) Project Office PLENARY ROUNDTABLE — LESSONS Thomas Lovejoy, President, The H. John Heinz III LEARNED FROM SUCCESSFUL ENVIRONMENTAL Center for Science, Economics, and the FORECASTING APPROACHES Environment; Former President, American Institute of Biological Sciences Steven Stanley,Professor of Paleobiology, Johns Mohamed El-Ashry (Moderator), Former President Hopkins University; Former President, and CEO, Global Environment Facility American Geological Institute

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12:15 PM —LUNCH 17. Cyberinfrastructure for All: Connectivity, Content, and Collaboration 18. Linking Environmental Indicators with Forecasting 1:30 PM 19. Moving From Observation to Forecasting Systems: BREAKOUT SESSIONS — 19 CONCURRENT Linking Characterization, Process Research, SESSIONS (SEE APPENDIX B FOR CHAIRS AND Modeling, Prediction and Delivery SPEAKERS) 5:30 PM Sessions on Linking Systems and Users 1. Connecting Forecasts with Policymakers RECEPTION AND POSTER SESSION 2. Improving the Usefulness of Environmental Information for Personal Decisionmaking: EPA’s 7:00 PM Public Report on the Environment, the Earth Portal, and More FIFTH JOHN H. CHAFEE MEMORIAL 3. Sharing Forecasting Information with Users LECTURE ON SCIENCE AND THE 4. Improving Academic Programs to Prepare the Next ENVIRONMENT Generation of Forecasters INTRODUCTION 5. Providing Real Time Forecasts - How to Assess and Jeffrey Leonard,President and CEO, Global Meet User Needs Environment Fund

Sessions on Connecting Institutions LECTURE 6. Integrating U.S. Efforts with International Initiatives Choosing Our Common Future: 7. Linking Levels of Government: Federal-State-Local Democracy’s True Test 8. Cross-Sectoral Connections: Engaging the Private William D. Ruckelshaus, First and Fifth Administrator, Sector as a Partner with the Government U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Chairman Emeritus, World Resources Institute; Sessions on Scientific and Technological Connections Chairman, Meridian Institute 9. Linking Ocean, Atmospheric and Terrestrial Observation and Forecasting Systems 10. Integrating Economic, Social and Environmental Forecasting FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 4, 2005 11. Working Across Spatial Scales - From Molecular to Global 9:00 AM 12. Forecasting Environmental Change of the Landscape at a Regional Scale PLENARY ADDRESS 13. Working Across Temporal Scales - Integrating Short-term and Long-term Approaches 14. Facilitating the Development of Environmental INTRODUCTIONS Randy Johnson, Chair, Board of Commissioners, Sensors and Sensor Networks Hennepin County, Minnesota 15. Fusion and Integration of Satellite Remote-Sensing Rita Colwell, Distinguished University Professor, and Ground-Based Observations and Presentation University of Maryland and the Johns Hopkins for Environmental Policy University Bloomberg School of Public Health; 16. Examining the Role of Eco-Informatics in Chairman, Canon U.S. Life Sciences, Inc.; Director Environmental Decisionmaking Emeritus, National Science Foundation

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LECTURE Terry Welch, Director, Environmental Technology Jack Dangermond, Founder and President, ESRI Center, Dow Chemical

Engaging Users in Environmental Forecasting 10:00 AM Nathalie Valette-Silver (Chair), NOAA National Ocean Service, Coordinator, the National Centers SYMPOSIA — 4 CONCURRENT SESSIONS for Coastal Ocean Science Ecological Forecasting Creating a Global Earth Observation Activities System of Systems (GEOSS): Otto Doering, Purdue University; on sabbatical at Benefits for Environmental Forecasting USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service Charles Groat (Chair), Director, U.S. Geological Ann Fisher, Department of Agricultural Economics & Survey; Alternate U.S. Representative to GEO Rural Sociology, Pennsylvania State University Roberta Balstad, President, Center for International Gregory Hernandez, NOAA Public Affairs, previously Earth Science Information Network a journalist with ABC News Rosalind Helz, Associate Program Coordinator, Robert Lempert, Senior Physical Scientist, RAND Volcano Hazards Program, U.S. Geological Survey Pardee Center K. Bruce Jones, Senior Scientist, U.S. Environmental Gary C. Matlock, NOAA, Director of the National Protection Agency Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Greg Withee, Assistant Administrator for Satellite and Information Services, NOAA; Co-Chair, Interagency Working Group on Earth Observations 12:00 PM BUFFET LUNCH Creating a National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON): Developing the Capacity for Ecological Forecasting 1:30 PM Bruce Hayden (Chair), Professor, University of Virginia, Co-Director NEON Project Office PLENARY ADDRESS Jeff Goldman, NEON Project Manager INTRODUCTION Pauline Luther,Education Director, Environmental James C. Renick, Chancellor, North Carolina A&T Distance Learning State University William Michener, Co-Director, NEON Project Office Ron Pulliam,Professor, University of Georgia LECTURE Arden Bement Jr.,Director, National Science Environmental Change: An Interactive Foundation Discussion About the Future Michael Brody (Co-Chair), Office of the Chief Financial Officer, U.S. Environmental Protection 2:00 PM Agency SIGNING CEREMONY Robert Olson (Co-Chair), Institute of Alternative Futures NOAA - USGS Joint Memorandum of Understanding Skip Laitner, Office of Air and Radiation, U.S. Charles Groat, Director, U.S. Geological Survey Environmental Protection Agency Brigadier General John J. Kelly, Jr., Deputy David Rejeski, Foresight and Governance Program, Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Atmosphere

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2:15 PM 3:30 PM PLENARY ROUNDTABLE—APPLYING CLOSING REMARKS ENVIRONMENTAL FORECASTING TO Ambassador Richard Benedick,President, National ENVIRONMENTAL DECISIONMAKING Council for Science and the Environment

Dave Jones (Moderator), President and CEO, ADJOURN StormCenter Communications, Inc. Ray Anderson, Founder and Chairman, Interface, Inc.; Former Co-chair, President’s Council on Sustainable Development Rita Colwell, Distinguished University Professor, University of Maryland and the Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health; Chairman, Canon U.S. Life Sciences, Inc.; Director Emeritus, National Science Foundation Brigadier General John J. Kelly, Jr., Deputy Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere Walter Reid,Director, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

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Appendix B Breakout Sessions

3. Sharing forecasting SESSIONS ON LINKING SYSTEMS AND USERS information with users

1. Connecting forecasts Session Chair with policymakers Elaine Hoagland, National Council for Science and the Environment Session Chair Robert Lempert, Senior Scientist, RAND Frederick S. Discussants Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Kevin Coyle, President, National Environment Future Human Condition Education and Training Foundation Dave Jones, President and CEO, StormCenter Discussants Communications, Inc. Mark Schaefer, President and CEO, NatureServe Leigh Welling, Director, Crown of the Continent Nancy J. Wheatley,Water Resources Strategies Research Learning Center, Glacier National Park

2. Improving the usefulness of 4. Improving academic environmental information for per- programs to prepare the sonal decisionmaking: EPA’s Public next generation of forecasters Report on the Environment, the Earth Portal, and more Session Chair Will Focht, Director, Environmental Institute, Oklahoma State University; Co-Chair, Council of Session Chair and Discussant Environmental Deans and Directors (CEDD) Jim Lester, Environment Group Director, Houston Curriculum Committee Advanced Research Center; Chair, NCSE Earth Portal Stewardship Committee Discussants Ronald Baird, Director, SeaGrant Program Discussants Sandra Henderson, GLOBE Chief Educator, University Bruce Stein, Vice President for Programs, NatureServe; Corporation for Atmospheric Research Representative, Office of Environmental Information, Sonia Ortega, Education and Human Resources U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Directorate, National Science Foundation Nancy Wentworth, Director, Environmental Analysis Division, Office of Information Analysis and Access, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

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5. Providing real-time forecasts— Discussants How to assess and meet user needs Kevin Neimond, GIS Program, National Association of Counties Session Chair Molly O’Neill, State Director, Network Steering Board, Environmental Council of the States Denice Shaw, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 8. Cross-sectoral connections: Discussants John E. White, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Engaging the private sector as Chris Owen, Apprise Technology a partner with the government Pauline Luther, Director, Environmental Distance Learning Session Chair Mary G. Altalo, Corporate Vice President, Science Applications International Corp. SESSIONS ON CONNECTING INSTITUTIONS Discussants James Cooper, Earth Satelite Corporation 6. Integrating U.S. efforts Steve Hauser, Director, Gridwise Alliance with international initiatives

Session Chair SESSIONS ON SCIENTIFIC AND Nancy Colleton, President, Institute for Global TECHNOLOGICAL CONNECTIONS Environmental Strategies; Co-Founder, The Alliance for Earth Observations. 9. Linking ocean, atmospheric, Discussants and terrestrial observation Eliot Christian, U.S. Geological Survey Fernando R. Echavarria, Bureau of Oceans, and forecasting systems International Environmental and Science Affairs, U.S. State Department Session Chair Teresa Kennedy, Director of International and U.S. Anthony Janetos, Vice President, H. John Heinz III Partnerships, GLOBE Program Center for Science, Economics and the Environment D. Brent Smith, Chief, International and Interagency Affairs, NOAA Discussants Ronald Birk, Program Director, Applied Sciences Program, NASA 7. Linking levels of government: John Orcutt, Deputy Director, Scripps Institution of Federal-state-local Oceanography; President, American Geophysical Union

Session Chair Randy Johnson, Chair, Hennepin County (MN) Board of Commissioners

79 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES APPENDIX B

10. Integrating economic, social, 13. Working across temporal and environmental forecasting scales: Integrating short-term Session Chair and long-term approaches Caitlin Simpson, Office of Global Programs, NOAA Session Chair Discussants Sue Haseltine, Associate Director for Biology, William Karesh, Director, Field Veterinary Program, U.S. Geological Survey Wildlife Conservation Society Dan Osgood, Economist, International Research Discussants Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia University Ann Bartuska, Deputy Chief for Research and Development, USDA Forest Service Jim Nichols, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, 11. Working across spatial scales: U.S. Geological Survey From molecular to global

Session Co-Chairs 14. Facilitating the development Jeff Amthor, Program Manager, U.S. Department of of environmental sensors Energy Office of Science, Climate Change Research and sensor networks Division Woody Turner, Program Scientist, Office of Earth Session Chair and Discussant Science, NASA Elizabeth Blood, Program Officer, Division of Biological Infrastructure, National Science Foundation Discussants Gary Jacobs, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Presentation John Paul, Professor of Marine Science, the University Peter Arzberger, University of California, San Diego, of South Florida “Sensors for Environmental Observing: Highlights and Stan Wullschleger, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Key Observations from an NSF Funded Workshop”

Discussants 12. Forecasting environmental Pat Brezonik, Henry Gholz, Alex Isern, Doug James change of the landscape and Steve Meacham, National Science Foundation at a regional scale

Session Chair 15. Fusion and integration of Sarah Shafer, Earth Surface Processes Team, U.S. satellite remote-sensing and Geological Survey ground-based observations and Discussants presentation for environmental policy Thomas Crow, National Program Leader, Ecological Research, Wildlife, Fish, Water, and Air Research, Session Chair Jill Engel-Cox USDA , Senior Research Scientist, Battelle John Wiens, Chief Scientist, The Nature Conservancy Memorial Institute

80 Forecasting E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGES APPENDIX B

Discussants 18. Linking environmental Ashbindu Singh, Regional Coordinator, Division of indicators with forecasting Early Warning & Assessment—North America, United Nations Environment Programme Session Chair Lawrence Friedl, Program Manager, National Brenda Groskinsky, ORD Science Liaison for Region Applications, Sun-Earth Systems Division, NASA 7, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Alan Rush, Policy Analyst, Office of Air Quality Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Presentations Rick Linthurst, Office of the Inspector General, U.S. 16. Examining the role Environmental Protection Agency Chase Huntley, Senior Analyst, National Resources of eco-informatics in and Environment Department, U.S. General Accounting environmental decisionmaking Office

Session Co-Chairs Discussants Mike Frame and Tyrone Wilson, National Biological Jamison Ervin, Ecoregional Measures Manager, The Information Infrastructure, U.S. Geological Survey Nature Conservancy H. Theordore Heintz, Jr., White House Council for Discussant Environmental Quality John Schnase, Lead, Information Sciences & Bruce Jones, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Technology Research, NASA Goddard Space Flight Environmental Protection Agency Center Douglas M. Muchoney, Program Coordinator, Geographic Analysis and Monitoring, U.S. Geological Survey 17. Cyberinfrastructure for all: Connectivity, 19. Moving from observation to content, and collaboration forecasting systems: Linking Session Chair characterization, process research, Ann Zimmerman, Research Fellow, University of modeling, prediction, and delivery Michigan Session Chair Discussants Gary Foley, Director, National Exposure Laboratory, James Gosz, Professor, University of New Mexico; Office of R&D, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Director for the New Mexico Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research Discussants Arnold Kee, Director of Programs, Institute for Higher Michele Aston, National Exposure Research Education Policy Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Lori Perine, Executive Director, Agenda 2020 Mathew Sobel, Professor, Weatherhead School of Technology Alliance, American Forest and Paper Management Case Western Reserve University Association Dorsey Worthy, National Exposure Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

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Appendix C Poster Presentations

Ashby, Steven; Barko, John and Dave Richards. U.S. Fisher, Ann and Rachael Dempsey. Penn State University. Army Corps of Engineers. Environmental Forecasting Improve Local and Regional Decisions with Pro- and Decision Making in Comprehensive Water jections and Tools About Climate and Land Use: The Resource Management. Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment (CARA).

Bell, J. Bruce; and Stuart L. Pimm. Duke University. Gray, Stephen T. and Julio L. Betancourt. U.S. Geological Predicting Tropical Deforestation from Road Survey—Desert Laboratory. Assessing the Importance of Proximity and Land Cover History in the Amazon Decadal-to-Multidecadal (D2M) Climate Variability in Basin. Forecasting Ecological and Hydrologic Change Across the Interior West. Billett, Clare1 and Robert Cheetham.21Natural Lands Trust; 2Avencia, Inc. Smart Conservation: Prioritization Gross, Thomas1; Brown, Christopher2; Hood, Raleigh3; Program. Ramers, Douglas4; Tango, Peter5; Michael, Bruce5 and Alexey Voinov.61Chesapeake Research Consortium; Clagett, Peter1; Reilly, James2; Jantz, Claire3 and Scott 2National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Goetz.31USGS; 2Maryland Department of Planning; 3University of Maryland Center for Environmental 3Woods Hole Research Center. Urban Growth Modeling Science, Horn Point Laboratory; 4University of North in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Carolina, Charlotte; 5Maryland Department of Natural Resources; 6University of Vermont. Integrating Environ- Diane Debinski. Iowa State University. Using Remotely mental Models to Predict Spatial Distribution of Sensed Habitat Classification and Species Distri- Harmful Algal Bloom Occurrence. bution Patterns to Define Ecological Indicators of Climate Change. Heyck-Williams, Shannon and Jacob Scherr. Natural Resources Defense Council. Connecting Policy Makers Dierauf, Leslie A.; Meteyer, Carol U.; Slota, Paul and F. with Environmental Knowledge: The Earth Legacy Joshua Dein. USGS, Biological Resources Discipline— Commission on U.S. Leadership in the Global National Wildlife Health Center. Thirty Years of Data Environment. Demonstrating Changes in Wildlife Health—U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) National Wildlife Health Ierardi, Michael and Toni M. Johnson. U.S. Geological Center, Madison, WI. Survey. The National Water Quality Monitoring Council. Efroymson, Rebecca1; Virginia H. Dale1; Latha M. Baskaran1; Matthew Aldridge2; Michael Berry2; Michael Jenicek, Elisabeth1; Gorgan, William1; Fournier, Donald2 and Chang3; Catherine Stewart4 and Robert A. Washington- Natalie Downs.31U.S. Army, Engineering Research Allen.11Oak Ridge National Laboratory; 2 University of Development Center; 2University of Illinois; 3PERTAN Tennessee; 3Georgia Institute of Technology; 4Aberdeen Associates. Strategic Sustainability Assessment Regional Proving Ground. RSim: A Simulation Model to Evaluation. Explore Impacts of Resource Use and Constraints on Military Installations and in Surrounding Regions.

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Kavanagh, Kathleen1; Link, Tim 1; Marshall, John D.1; Rabinowitz, Peter1; F Joshua Dein2; Zimra Gordon1 and Braatne, Jeff1; Han, Han-Sap1; Cundy, Terry 2; Daley- Lynda Odofin.11Yale University School of Medicine; Laursen, Steven 1 and Woodam Chung.31University of 2USGS National Wildlife Health Center. Animals as Idaho; 2Potlatch Corporation; 3University of Montana. Sentinels of Human Environmental Health Hazards. Collaborative Watershed Studies of Ecosystem Responses to Current Forest Harvest Practices in the Smith, Richard; Alexander, Richard B.; Schwarz, Gregory Rocky Mountains, USA. E. and Michael C. Ierardi. U.S. Geological Survey. Effects of Structural Changes in U.S. Animal Agriculture on Khan, Mohammed; Ahmad, S.A.; Erogbogbo, U. and J. Fecal Coliform Contamination of Streams. Kyle. University of Illinois at Chicago and City Colleges of Chicago. Global Warming and Survival of Aquatic Harold Stone. East Carolina University. A Graphic Model Animals in Toxic Environments. to Aid Sustainable Decision Making in Environmental Policy. Kuby, Lauren; Redman, Charles, L.; Buizer, James and Brenda Shears. Arizona State University. Arizona State Takle, Eugene S.; King, Catherine L.; CRUSE, Rick; University’s International Institute for Sustainability: Arritt, Raymond W.; Gassman, Phil; Gutowski, Jr., Research with a Purpose. William J.; Asbjornsen, Heidi; Debinski, Diane; Jha, Manoj; and Mahesh Sahu. Iowa State University. Basing Lucy Bennison Laffitte. North Carolina State University. Policy on Sound Science: Using Human Behavior What Does Environmental Sustainability Have in Models Coupled with Physically Based Models. Common with Homeland Security? Deep Pockets of Social Capital. Valette-Silver, Nathalie J. and Gary C. Matlock. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The Integra- McManus, John W.; Gayanilo, Felimon; Hazra, Amit; tion of Science and Management. Kool, Johnathan; Langdon, Chris; Yñiguez, Aletta; Brandt, Marilyn; and Wade Cooper. University of D. Rick Van Schoik. Southwest Consortium for Environ- Miami—National Center for Caribbean Coral Reef mental Research and Policy. Eventualities in the US- Research (NCORE). The Challenge of Building Mexican Border Region: Harbinger for the Nation? Forecasting into the New Online Data Navigator for South Florida. Waggett, Caryl E.1; Waggett, James A.2; Wilmore, Seth B.1 and Robert S. Lane31Allegheny College; 2IEEE; 3University Mubenga, Kamonayi1; Jordan, Nikisa1; Engel-Cox, Jill2; of California, Berkeley. Assessing Risk of Lyme Disease Raymond Hoff1; Kevin McCann1 and Ray Rogers.1 Using Satellite Imagery in Northern California: Effi- 1University of Maryland Baltimore County; 2UMBC— cacy of Predicting Disease Risk in an Era of Land Use Battelle Memorial Institute. Blogging Smog: The U.S. Changes. Air Quality Weblog. Welling, Leigh1; Thomas, Julie2; Fagre, Dan3 and Karen Nemani, Ramakrishna1; Golden, Keith 1; Votava, Petr2; Scott.41National Park Service, Glacier National Park; 2Air Michaelis, Andy 2; White, Michael3; Melton, Forrest2; Resources Liaison; 3USGS, Rocky Mountain Research Glymour, Clark4; Running, Steve5; Myneni, Ranga6 and Station, Glacier Field Station; 4Environmental Protection Joseph Coughlan.11NASA Ames Research Center; 2CSU Agency—Office of Air & Radiation, Climate Change Monterey Bay; 3Utah State University; 4Carnegie Mellon Division. Climate Change in National Parks: Moving University; 5University of Montana; 6Boston University. from Knowledge to Action. Biospheric Monitoring and Forecasting Using Ecosystem Modeling and Satellite Data.

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Appendix D Exhibitors The following organizations exhibited their educational programs and products at the conference.

Department of Defense

ESRI

Humane Society International/Earth Voice

Island Press

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

National Academies Press

National Center for Caribbean Coral Reef Research

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Park Service

USDA Forest Service

USDA UV-B Monitoring and Research Program, Colorado State University

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development

U.S. Geological Survey

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Appendix E Sponsors

The generous support of these companies, organizations, and agencies helped make the conference a success.