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Trading at Cheap Multiples, Initiate 股 票 研 [Table_Title] Peter Shao 邵俊樨 Company Report: China Risun Group (01907 HK) 究 (852) 2509 5464 Equity Research 公司报告： 中国旭阳集团 (01907 HK) [email protected] 2 August 2019 [Table_Summary] Trading at Cheap Multiples, Initiate "Buy" 估值较低，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级 公 Solid prospects thanks to policy-driven industry consolidation. Riding [Table_Rank] 司 on the tide of industry consolidation driven by China’s tightened Rating: Buy Initial environmental protection policies, Risun aims to expand its market share via 报 its operation management and technology output services (OMTOS), which 评级： 买入 (首次覆盖) 告 serves as an asset-light way to take in and transform outdated production Company Report capacity within the industry. We expect the OMTOS to be a major growth catalyst between 2019 and 2021. 6[Table_Price]-18m TP 目标价 : HK$3.58 We expect Risun’s refined chemicals segment to deliver sustainable growth. Risun plans to increase production in high value-added refined Share price 股价: HK$2.880 chemicals, which have robust demand and vast market potential. We expect 告 Risun’s refined chemicals segment to deliver a CAGR of 13.1% in revenue 证 Stock performance 报 growth from 2018 to 2021, and forecast the segment’s revenue contribution to 券 total sales to increase from 39.6% in 2018 to 48.1% in 2021. 股价表现 究 [Table_QuotePic15 % change ] 研 We forecast 2019-2021 EPS of RMB0.630, RMB0.684, and RMB0.699, 研 respectively, reflecting a CAGR of 3.3%. Our projected growth is based on 10 究 the expectation of stable coal-coke price spread, continued policy-driven 5 券 报 industry consolidation, and increased profitability from Risun’s refined 0 告 证 chemical segment during the forecast period. (5) Equity Research Report We initiate coverage with "Buy" rating and a TP of HK$3.58. Risun is (10) currently trading at 4.0x 2019 P/E, which we believe does not fully reflect its prospects and business scale. Our TP corresponds to 5.0x/ 4.6x/ 4.5x 2019/ (15) 2020/ 2021 PER, and represents a 38.3% discount to our DCF derived NAV [Tab (20) per share of HK$5.80. Key downside risks include a narrowed coal-coke price le_I HSI China Risun Group spread and a slower-than-expected growth in the Company’s OMTOS. nfo1 政策推动下的行业整合为公司提供良好前景。在国内环保政策收紧而推动行业整合的背景 ] 下，旭阳计划利用其运营管理及技术输出服务（OMTOS），以轻资产模式吸收并升级行 Change[Table_PriceChange] in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 石 业内落后产能，实现市场扩张。我们预计 OMTOS 将会是 2019-2021 年重要的增长催化剂。 股价变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年 Abs. % 1.8 (4.0) n.a. 化 我们预计旭阳精细化工分部将实现可持续增长。鉴于强劲的需求和广阔的市场空间，旭阳 绝对变动 % Rel. % to HS Index 5.2 3.2 n.a. 行 计划增产附加值较高的精细化工产品。我们预计旭阳的精细化工分部将于 2018-2021 年实 相对恒指变动 % Avg. Share price(HK$) 业 现 13.1%的年复合增长率，且其收入占比将由 2018 年的 39.6%增至 2021 年的 48.1%。 2.7 2.7 n.a. 平均股价（港元） 我们预计 2019-2021 年每股净利分别为人民币 0.630 元、人民币 0.684 元和人民币 0.699 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 元，对应 3.3%的年复合增长率。我们的增长预测是建立在预测期内煤炭—焦炭价差将保 Petrochemicals Sector 持稳定、行业将持续受政策推动而整合，及旭阳精细化工分部盈利性将会提升的判断上。 我们首予“买入”评级，目标价 3.58 港元。旭阳股价目前对应 4.0 倍 2019 年市盈率，我 们认为该市盈率未充分体现公司成长前景及商业规模。我们的目标价分别对应 5.0 倍/4.6 倍/4.5 倍 2019-2021 市盈率，且较我们用折现现金流方法得出的每股估值（5.80 港元）有 38.3%的折让。主要下行风险包括煤炭—焦炭价差收窄和 OMTOS 业务增速不及预期。 [Tab le_I [Table_ Year End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE nfo2 年结Profit] 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 ] 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△ %) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 中 2017A 18,658 755 0.240 100.0 10.0 0.968 2.5 0.000 0.0 26.3 国 2018A 20,583 2,089 0.634 164.3 4.0 1.398 1.8 0.030 1.2 54.4 旭 2019F 22,686 2,451 0.630 (0.7) 4.0 2.078 1.2 0.153 6.0 37.5 阳 2020F 23,556 2,798 0.684 8.6 3.7 2.365 1.1 0.180 7.1 30.8 2021F 24,479 2,859 0.699 2.2 3.6 2.858 0.9 0.205 8.1 26.7 集 团 [Table_BaseData]Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 4,090.0 Major shareholder 大股东 Yang Xuegang 76.2% Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 11,779.2 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 11.7 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 1,920.3 FY19 Net gearing (%) FY19 净负债/股东资金 (%) 62.9 China Group (01907 Risun HK) 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 (HK$) 3.800 / 2.590 FY19 Est. NAV (HK$) FY19 每股估值（港元） 5.8 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 12 [Table_PageHeader]China Risun Group (01907 HK) Industry Analysis ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ China Risun Group Limited ("Risun" or "the Company") operates in the coal chemical industry, which sits in the midstream of the coal value chain. The coal chemical industry is highly susceptible to its upstream and downstream industries, which are largely exposed to macroeconomic cycles. Therefore, analysing the coal chemical industry entails identifying the current macroeconomic trend as well as examining the industry’s upstream and downstream sectors. Fixed Asset Investment 2 August 2019 Urban fixed asset investment (FAI) in China grew at a CAGR of 12.9% between 2010 and 2018, and is expected to grow at no less than 6.0% per annum in 2019 and 2020. Being one of the key drivers of economic growth, FAI in China has grown sharply in recent years and is expected to continue the growth momentum over the next few years. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, urban FAI in China increased from approximately RMB24.1 trillion in 2011 to RMB63.6 trillion in 2018, representing a CAGR of 12.9%. Most recently in 6M2019, urban FAI in China rose 5.8% yoy to RMB 29.9 trillion. We estimate China’s FAI growth to relatively speed up in the second half of 2019 as a result of loosened credit policy for large infrastructure projects nationwide and a favorable market environment for the real estate sector in China. We expect domestic FAI to increase by no less than 6.0% per annum in both 2019 and 2020 despite uncertainties resulting from US-China trade ] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ tension and rising risk of a slowdown in the domestic market. Figure-1: Historical FAI Investments in China Figure-2: Historical Steel Prices in China Wire Rod (RMB/Tonne) Hot Rolled (RMB /Tonne) FAI YoY growth % 70,000 30 Cold Rolled (RMB/Tonne) 20mm Medium Plate (RMB/Tonne) 63,168 63,564 59,650 8,000 60,000 24.5 23.8 55,159 25 7,000 20.6 50,201 50,000 19.6 20 6,000 43,653 40,000 36,484 15.7 5,000 (01907 HK) 15 30,240 29,910 RMB bn RMB 30,000 24,143 10.0 GrowthYoY 4,000 8.1 10 20,000 7.2 3,000 5.9 5.8 5 10,000 2,000 中国旭阳集团 1,000 - 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 6M2019 Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Guotai Junan International. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Guotai Junan International. The Iron and Steel Industry China Risun Group Steel production in China grew at a CAGR of 5.0% from 2010 to 2018 and is expected to rise by 9.8% in 2019 driven by strong domestic demand. As nationwide crude steel production capacity stayed at around 1,000 million tons on average between 2016 and 2018, crude steel output increased substantially, especially in 2017 and 2018. Following strong yoy growth of 11.6% in steel output last year according to Mysteel, we expect nationwide steel output to grow 9.8% yoy in 2019. The massive government spending scheme on large infrastructure projects and a loosened credit environment for infrastructure projects are supportive to our assumption for 2019. In light of the slowdown in steel exports over the last 2 years, we have seen strong crude steel consumption in China in 2017 and 2018, more than making up the loss in overseas demand. Crude steel consumption in the domestic market grew 7.9% yoy and 13.3% yoy in 2017 and 2018, respectively, and we expect the growth rate to be 10.9% in 2019. Domestic crude steel consumption in the first 6 months of 2019 reached 463.6 million tons, up 9.8% yoy. Furthermore, we have noticed that prices of Chinese steel products (except for the medium plate) have been close to the lowest in the world; we expect that exports of steel products may rise again in the future should protectionism be eased and anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel products be lifted in key offshore markets. Steel price in China has remained strong in the first 7 months of 2019. With a sanguine outlook on growth in infrastructure and property investment in China, we expect steel Report prices to stay high throughout 2019 and remain strong in 2020. Company See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 12 [Table_PageHeader]China Risun Group (01907 HK) Table-1: Historical Steel Capacity, Production Output and Consumption in China ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ (Mn ton) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E Crude steel capacity, Year End 800 916 1,014 1,105 1,130 1,105 1,051 1,022 1,012 1,035 Crude steel output (volume) 627 683 717 779 823 804 808 832 928 1,019 Output yoy growth 9% 5% 9% 6% -2% 1% 3% 12% 10% Utilization rate 78% 75% 71% 71% 73% 73% 77% 81% 92% 98% Steel exports 43 49 56 62 94 112 108 75 69 65 Steel imports 16 16 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 Net import / (export) -26 -33 -42 -48 -79 -100 -95 -62 -56 -52 Implied crude steel consumption 601 650 674 731 743 704 713 770 872 967 Consumption yoy growth 8% 4% 8% 2% -5% 1% 8% 13% 11% 2 August 2019 Source: Mysteel, Guotai Junan International.
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