Stress Testing Pakistani Federalism Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic Response
Centre for Governance Systems
Stress Testing Pakistani Federalism Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic Response Bismillah irr Rahman irr Rahim
This material has been funded by UK aid from the UK government; however, the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official policies.
Stress Testing Pakistani Federalism: Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic Response
Nazish Brohi, Danyal Adam Khan & Mosharraf Zaidi
Tabadlab Working Paper 06 ISBN 978-969-7911-09-07
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For more information on Tabadlab’s CGS, please email us at [email protected] iv Executive Summary ...... 7
1. Introduction & Context 11 of Table 1.1 Methodology ...... 12
1.2 Context: Politics in the Time of Covid-19 ...... 12 Contents
2. Coordination for the First Wave 15 2.1 Multifarious Institutional Responses to Covid-19 ...... 15 2.1.1 The NDMA as Lead Procurement Agent ...... 15 2.1.2 The Parliamentary Committee on Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) . . . . . 17 2.1.3 The National Command & Operation Centre (NCOC) ...... 17 2.2 Establishing a Coordinated Flow of Data ...... 18 2.3 A Critique of the Institutional Response ...... 19
3. Crisis Communications During the Pandemic 23 3.1 Conflicting Signals and Mixed Messaging ...... 24 3.2 Impact of Mixed Messaging ...... 25
4. Local Decisions, Governance & Operations 29 4.1 The pre-Covid-19 Local Government Context ...... 29 4.2 Filling the LG Vacuum: District Administration to Tiger Force ...... 32
5. Social Protection & Basic Income 35 5.1 Federal v. Provincial Social Protection Programmes ...... 35 5.2 Leveraging BISP for Ehsaas and Ehsaas for EEC ...... 37
6. Conclusions and Lessons 43 6.1 Covid-19 as a Driver for Data Transparency ...... 44 6.2 Missing: Administrative and Normative Coherence ...... 44
6.3 Strengthening the MIPC and Enhancing the CCI ...... 46 6.4 Urgent Need to Bridge the Local Governance Gap ...... 47 6.5 Understanding Power of Effective Delivery Mechanisms ...... 47 6.6 Politics Matters: Conflict & Consensus ...... 48 6.7 Public Trust and Need for Reliable Communications ...... 48 Annex 1: List of Formal Interviews Conducted 49 Endnotes ...... 51
v vi Executive Summary
ederalism is the defining protection and cash grants to structural and normative mitigate the economic impact of F framework for how the pandemic. Pakistan is governed. Despite In coordinating a “national” repeated political consensus on response to the pandemic, neither this governance system, it is the parliamentary committee on also contentious and questioned Covid-19, nor the National Disaster constantly. A global and national Management Authority (NDMA) crisis is the ultimate stress test - one a representative body, of a governance system. This and the other, a statutory body working paper attempts to with the legal mandate to lead examine Pakistani federalism (the the response - had the requisite constitutionally mandated system authority or capability to mobilise of governance in the country) a whole-of-government, national during the first wave of the coordination effort. The resulting ongoing Covid-19 crisis. establishment of the National In light of the tensions in Command and Operation Centre centre-province relations, (NCOC) was a distinct and unique both historically, and during experiment in governance. It was the pandemic, we examine the immensely successful in collating Covid-19 response through and cohering information, four distinct but interrelated data flows and generating real- lenses, namely, coordination time feedback on Covid-19 for the pandemic response, related decisions. However, this crisis and behavioural change success was not rooted in the communications, local level constitutional mechanism for decision making, governance “national” responses, (i.e. the CCI), and operations, and finally, social nor in the administrative home for
7 Stress Testing Pakistani Federalism - Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic Response
such interventions within the federal and participatory means of engagement government, namely the Ministry of between state and citizen at the local Inter Provincial Coordination. level.
Pakistan’s crisis communications, at the Finally, Pakistan’s long-standing outset of the Covid-19 pandemic and success in establishing and sustaining through the first wave suffered from a national social protection and cash mixed messaging between key leaders, grants instrument — the BISP / Ehsaas and between the federal government programme, proved a vital tool in the and some provincial governments. pandemic response. Despite the political The lack of aligned messaging was not stakes and the mixed mandate, from a only a product of contested political federalism perspective, the success of space and party loyalties. It was also the Ehsaas Emergency Cash programme a product of genuine philosophical is a symbol of the power of good service differences on the lives vs. livelihoods delivery and design as being capable debate. Despite contestation and of overcoming normative and political mixed messaging, several examples challenges. of coherent and effective behaviour Federalism in Pakistan is evolving change communications were also and must continue to evolve. Lessons manifest as the NCOC helped cohere for federal design from the Covid-19 a national response — proving the response include: system’s capacity to generate the correct response to a crisis. The immense potential of robust and real-time data for the public sector. The adoption of local level lockdowns, Crises create opportunity. The Covid-19 and the need for enhanced information pandemic has created a major opportunity and intelligence about how the to deepen and expand the scope of open disease spreads within communities and transparent data and information necessitated a robust set of tools for for the public good that will forge a more local level decision making, operations perfect union, and more robust federal and governance. The absence of structure. This opportunity requires a meaningful and empowered local sustained follow-up. governments in Pakistan resulted in a gap between the speed and efficiency of The limitations of short-term fixes. The policies that the federal and provincial expediency of solving an operational governments, as well as the military problem without the underlying were able to generate through the institutional and legislative work, NCOC, and the effectiveness of those creates administrative gaps, and policies at the grassroots. Exceptions institutional overlap (and even, potential due to high-performance bureaucrats conflict). The government’s plans to posted as district administrators further terminate the NCOC upon the end of underscore the need for representative the Covid-19 pandemic crisis should
8 Executive Summary
be informed by an effort to invest more incentivises increased centralisation of robustly in existing mechanisms for power. national action — namely the CCI and the The state-building and service MIPC. More political and legislative work delivery value of effective public sector before the next crisis may help evolve organisations. Building long term, the state’s ability to convene powerful durable and effective organisations in fora, under the authority of the CCI, and the public sector, through legislation aligned with the relevant administrative that protects the structures from the arrangements, such as the MIPC. The temporal whims of politics and the strengths of the NCOC must be captured public discourse, is at the heart of state in a functional assessment of the key resilience and capacity. Effective public benefits the structure offered, and then sector organisations like BISP, and integrated into all future government the Ehsaas programme reinforce and policy and actions that merit national strengthen federal coherence — even if urgency. they may seem to undercut subnational The value of investing in normatively autonomy at times. and legislatively robust “national” Politics as usual does not always need mechanisms for governance. Process to come at the cost of effectiveness and due diligence matter. The primary and efficiency. Ultimately in a crisis, all federal body, the MIPC, was excluded political differences are suspended so in the formation of the NCOC, and that the system can focus on getting whilst the apex statutory forum, the things done. No greater proof than the CCI, had been relatively dormant in NCOC is needed that Pakistan’s many the months leading up to the Covid-19 run-of-the-mill crises all require the pandemic. This represents an object political, military and economic elites lesson in the importance of frequent and to be prompted to come together for regular procedural due diligence and a response. When push came to shove, constitutional adherence. Pakistan’s federal system was able to The urgent need for more effective respond to the crisis. This means that local governments. Absent serious federalism has the latent power to tackle investments in representative local much more than it does. government, with adequate powers over Clear and coherent public core local functions, and the ability to communications can alter outcomes for raise and spend their own revenue, the the better. Routine political contestations next crisis will also exact the same heavy must not be allowed to supersede core cost on district administrators that federalist principles and communication the Covid-19 pandemic has. Weak local channels require strengthening to ensure governance hollows out the spirit and individual or party posturing does not effectiveness of a federal system, and derail governance.
9 10 01
A crisis is ultimately a test of All Covid-19 indicators so far organisational and operational show significantly less damage design. Crises, therefore, represent in Pakistan than anticipated – potent moments to understand the especially during the first wave of design of systems. A crisis offers a the pandemic. Fatalities are below unique lens into the social, political, what was estimated, the economy economic and cultural reflexes and seems to have rebounded faster than responses of governance systems. expected, and normalcy – despite a & Context The design of government systems lack of clarity about vaccinations – must, therefore, reflect the capacity seems to have returned. Something of a state to respond to a crisis. has clearly worked, and the Introduction This working paper attempts to authorities seem to have performed examine Pakistani federalism (the well. Yet there is not enough robust constitutionally mandated system of data to establish causality between governance in the country) during policy and outcome. the ongoing Coronavirus crisis. It This working paper does not seeks to increase our understanding attempt to evaluate Pakistan’s of decision-making, prioritisation, Covid-19 response or the success apportionment and representation or failure of federal and provincial during the Covid-19 pandemic. governments in terms of their We try to assess the Covid-19 impact on either citizens’ lives response in Pakistan as a lens and welfare, or on the economy. to analyse how federalism – as a Instead, it attempts to understand governance system – has served the processes involved in the the Pakistani people, how it has response to the Covid-19 crisis. It is evolved in the face of a crisis, and an effort to draw attention towards what pressures and implications decision-making institutions and its evolution has for the future mechanisms. It seeks to examine of governance in the country. An the extent to which federalism and assessment of the official Covid-19 democratic structures helped in pandemic response in Pakistan will seeking better outcomes. This paper help bring into focus governance hopes to contribute to discussions procedures and decision-making on democratic governance and processes that often get blurred out provide insights to build further and foregrounded by the outcomes, on the principles of devolution and consequences and shortfalls of steer future decision-making during governance. crises.
11 Stress Testing Pakistani Federalism - Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic Response
1.1 Methodology wider context and history of centralisation in Pakistan. The methodology adopted for this working paper combines both primary and Covid-19 struck Pakistan at a time when secondary data. Data gathering required the ruling party had been in power for 18 a reliance on remote working, given the months — its first time in control of the challenges of in-person and face-to-face federal government. Its populist rhetoric interviews and meetings during the before and after an acrimonious election pandemic. Secondary data was based process, and the controversy over electoral on a desk review of official documents, results, initially impeded the collaborative notifications, research and journal papers, work that the complexity and seriousness analytical reports and news stories. These of the Covid-19 pandemic has demanded. were supplemented with key informant In the first online meeting of the political interviews with experts and notable leadership across all parties, opposition commentators on federalism and Covid-19, leaders felt slighted by the prime minister, including those holding public office. after he signed out of the meeting upon completing his address.1 A special session The main themes for data gathering of Parliament was convened to develop a were federalism, devolution and national strategy to deal with the outbreak. decentralisation, representation, efficacy There too, the prime minister chose not of pandemic response and the response to attend, leading to further critique from architecture, social welfare initiatives, and his political opponents.2 The opposition crisis communications. parties then held their own All Parties’ Conference and, in protest, did not invite 1.2 Context: Politics in the the government.3 Time of Covid-19 In normal times, these would have To examine how federalism shaped been run-of-the-mill political standoffs. Pakistan’s Covid-19 response, it is However, during the Covid-19 pandemic important to assess political contestation – and with the importance of the issues during the pandemic. One of the primary involved – they have acquired an urgency frictions or contests that defined the early of their own. Instead of calmly leading the stage of the crisis were tensions between people during a frightening emergency, the Sindh and federal governments. politicians were seen as furthering their The importance of that dynamic is not agendas, creating rifts in the public trust a function of the wider severity of the and escalating political polarisation. The contest. Indeed, the foundations of impact of such bitterness in the public Pakistani federalism were neither shaken discourse is devastating for a crisis nor stirred by it. Rather, the Sindh and response, weakening already feeble public federal government tensions during the trust. The resulting low compliance Covid-19 pandemic offer a unique window and dismissiveness toward laws and into federal design in Pakistan, given the regulations, the contempt for official SOPs,
12 Introduction & Context
the adoption of conspiracy theories, and However, in the midst of the pandemic the difficulty in achieving even basic levels in June 2020, the federal government of consensus required to confront the allocated funds for the three hospitals and crisis, are all rooted in a fragmented and announced it would take them over and divisive public discourse.4 run them itself.7 The Sindh government stated that it had been investing billions Some long-standing or pre-existing in the hospitals as their flagship health issues also re-emerged. The Sindh facilities and filed for a review of the government was particularly sensitive Supreme Court decision while also to any criticism of its health response allocating money to run them in its own because of a centre-province standoff provincial annual budget.8 Currently the that had been shaping up in recent years. hospitals have dual budgetary allocations After the 2010 devolution, all provinces and are awaiting judicial review. increased allocations to their health budgets substantially. However, among Health is a natural arena for centre- the issues that arose after devolution were province competition. Though it is three federally-run hospitals in Karachi. a devolved area, many public health Taken together, the case of these hospitals initiatives were retained as national provides an illustration of how prior programmes, due to issues of programme conditions shaped the crisis response. The standardisation, vaccine procurement and Sindh government had been demanding wider global commitments. The National their transfer to the provincial authority Programme on Malaria, Tuberculosis for a decade and the federal government (TB), and Acquired Immunodeficiency had been resisting it. Syndrome (AIDS) and the Extended Programme of Immunization (EPI) to fight In 2019, the Supreme Court ruled against diseases like polio, for example, continue the Sindh government, stating that the to be run from Islamabad. federal government was within its right to set up and run hospitals in the province Despite some debate about the mechanics even if it was a devolved concern, since of how vertical programmes such as the “health is a basic human right”.5 After EPI may be devolved to the provinces, protest by the Sindh government that the Council of Common Interests (CCI) the judgement was akin to a rollback of decided in a meeting in April 2011 that the principles of devolution, the federal vertical programmes such as the EPI government announced that it would would continue to be financed by the hand over the hospitals to them as a federal government until the next NFC confidence-building measure.6 Naturally, Award.9 The EPI therefore continues to the Sindh government welcomed the be coordinated at the national level under gesture. For once, it seemed that the spirit the Ministry of National Health Services of federalism would help engender more, Regulation and Coordination (NHSR&C) rather than less, unity between province and is financed by the federal PDSP at the and centre. same financial levels as 2010-11. Whilst
13 Stress Testing Pakistani Federalism - Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic Response
provinces, districts and union councils are instrumental in the coordination and delivery of the anti-polio campaigns run by the EPI programme, the EPI continues to be vertical — owned, funded and governed by the federal government.
Pakistan’s previous successful dealing with national disasters was due to political stability; the authorities in question responded to flooding, earthquakes and dengue outbreaks by leveraging their control over provincial administrations they had presided over for successive terms. It found that many of these measures “generally tended to rely on executive fiat rather than concrete legislative and institutional reforms.”10 In the ongoing pandemic response, while the federal government has not acquired administrative longevity, the penchant for relying on executive fiat has remained the definitive trend.
In light of the historical and recent tensions in centre-province relations, we now examine the pandemic response through four distinct but interrelated lenses (namely, coordination, communication, local government and social protection). Using these lenses, we seek to explicate how unresolved or lingering issues in Pakistani federalism rise to the surface and obstruct collaborative and integrated governance, especially in times of crisis.
14 02
The first known cases of Covid-19 perennial challenge faced by nearly in Pakistan were reported on all federal systems: the ability to February 26, 2020. On March 13, ensure coherent, robust, fast and the National Security Committee joint decision-making.11 In short: (NSC) held a meeting chaired by the how to coordinate crisis response in prime minister, bringing together a federal system?12 the Cabinet, chief ministers, chief secretaries and health ministers 2.1 Multifarious of all provinces as well as the top Institutional military hierarchy, including the Responses to Covid-19 chiefs of all services: Army, Air Force and Navy. Coordination for how 2.1.1 The NDMA as Lead the country would tackle the virus Procurement Agent was at the top of the agenda. It was the First Wave at this meeting that the National At the March 13 meeting of NSC, Coordination Committee (NCC) – the NDMA was anointed as “the lead operational agency” for the Coordination for Coordination the apex national body for Covid-19 decision-making – was formed. Covid-19 pandemic.13 Pandemic- related procurement was deemed This meeting generated two to be a central function, delegated concrete takeaways that would to the NDMA, which then fulfilled shape how Pakistan would respond the procurement and delivery of to the virus. First, the undoubted vital personal protective equipment need for an operational platform and hospital machinery across which would coordinate the Covid-19 the country, utilising the various response across the federation, and corps headquarters of the armed second, the urgent need for the forces.14 The NDMA continues to procurement of medical supplies, oversee the full spectrum of this protective equipment and healthcare procurement process from supply machinery. chain management to accounting and audits. The authority has been The creation of the National led by a senior army official (with a Command and Operation Centre change of command in December (NCOC) and the use of the National 2020, upon the superannuation Disaster Management Authority of the incumbent), and allowed a (NDMA) as a centralised instrument carte blanche for procurement and for procurement were both a clearances.15 16 direct result of the imperative to address these needs. At the heart of The NDMA’s original mandate these needs was the universal and
15 Stress Testing Pakistani Federalism - Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic Response
Cases, Deaths and Recoveries in Pakistan
Cases Recoveries
Ramadan id l-Fitr id l- dha sh ra 1
1
ctive Cases eaths pr May un ul ug Sep Oct Nov Dec an Feb
Chart Ta adla Created ith ata rapper
Figure 01: Tabadlab’s Covid-19 Tracker17
was17 to manage national disasters, not public sector at large. Since the start of just the procurement related to a disaster. the current government’s tenure, the Many observers have asked why the opposition has consistently claimed that NDMA was not empowered to serve as the the anti-corruption agency, the National clearinghouse mechanism and coordination Accountability Bureau (NAB) has been used body for the entire Covid-19 response. In as a tool for political victimisation. Indeed, short, critics of the pandemic response several officials, including civil servants, express scepticism about the need for that were seen to be associated with past the NCOC, given that the NDMA had the administrations have been arrested and mandate to perform disaster management incarcerated without trial or conviction. As at the national scale. Instead, the NDMA recently as May 2020, in the midst of the was reduced to a procurement arm during first wave of the pandemic, representatives the pandemic and has remained largely of the ruling party were accusing the disconnected from its provincial sub-units, provincial government of corruption in the PDMAs.18 pandemic spending, demanding an audit and threatening legal action.19 One important aspect of the tense political environment within which the The fear and trepidation caused by this pandemic response was shaped is the environment is one of the major drivers allegations of corruption that plague the of a slowdown in public procurement
16 Coordination for the First Wave
and public sector project execution — to review, monitor and oversee issues predating the Covid-19 pandemic. Civil related to Covid-19, particularly the servants and the wider executive branch economy.22 While members of the are reluctant to sign off on projects Parliamentary Committee on Coronavirus that involve public expenditure for fear Disease specifically asked to be allowed of undue scrutiny, harassment and oversight of the activities of the NDMA, reputational abuse. At the early stages the committee has largely been at the of the pandemic response, this inertia receiving end of information, rather than quickly became a vital obstruction to the providing supervision.23 Widening rifts government’s desire to act quickly and between the government and opposition efficiently. Indeed, the NDMA’s specific since March 2020 have contributed to the role as an instrument of procurement is dormancy of the committee and left it all seen to have been rooted in this complex but redundant.24 challenge. The NDMA’s designation as a clearinghouse for procurement likely 2.1.3 The National Command & served as a vital catalyst for the Pakistani Operation Centre (NCOC) state’s ability to fulfil procurement of On March 28, 2020, the federal life-saving medicines and equipment, government announced the creation especially during the early stages of of the National Command & Operation the pandemic. All this was despite the Centre (NCOC) — a forum to ensure relaxation of public procurement rules coordination for the Covid-19 response during emergencies, that has been and between the federal government, remains codified in Pakistani law.20 provincial governments and the armed One novel approach to the threat of forces. Visualised as a “nerve centre accusations of corruption and fraud to synergise and articulate the unified was adopted by the Sindh government national effort against Covid-19”, the as it appointed a committee to oversee NCOC was set up as the implementation spending of the Coronavirus Emergency arm of the NCC. Chaired by the Federal Fund (CEF) with private sector Minister for Planning, the NCOC representation and technical experts, constitutes the four provinces, Gilgit- along with setting up a portal with access Baltistan, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and to a detailed breakdown of all Covid-19 the Islamabad Capital Territory. It is the related income and expense.21 Covid-19 response mechanism that was convened to ensure that the Pakistani 2.1.2 The Parliamentary Committee public policy response to Covid-19 on Coronavirus Disease was truly “national” in character and (Covid-19) representative of the input and, ideally, consensus between the provinces, the A bipartisan parliamentary committee regions, and the federal government, as was constituted on March 26, 2020 well as the full spectrum of the executive
17 Stress Testing Pakistani Federalism - Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic Response
Federal Government Science, Analytics
Military Provincial Governments Support, Facilitation Authority, Coordination
District Level Implementation, Data Collection
Figure 02: Structural Response to Covid-19
arm of the state (including the armed Meanwhile, the NCOC was also aimed forces). at closing a widening political chasm which greatly impacted the coordination The NCOC collates and analyses data of Covid-19 efforts in its early stages. from across the country and makes Federalism has since resurged as a hotly- recommendations to the NCC. Upon contested topic and a polarising debate has approval of the NCC, the NCOC is also raged over the role of the 18th Amendment tasked with ensuring implementation. and the long-overdue National Finance It has taken valuable steps to increase Commission Award. A turf war between coordination for Covid-19 efforts by the Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI) at the utilising this data and employing centre and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) in technological solutions. Some examples Sindh threatened to escalate into a crisis of this include its Resource Management of the federation, until it was eventually System which maps health resources mitigated by the institutional stability that such as doctors and hospitals in order to the NCOC helped forge. facilitate needs assessments and decision- making. This is further linked to an app 2.2 Establishing a Coordinated called Pak Neghayban which provides Flow of Data updates to users on nearby hospitals and facilities such as the number of available Having access to reliable data is beds and ventilators, and the status of a prerequisite to building robust Covid-19 isolation wards. countermeasures to disease outbreaks. The absence of data in Pakistan was one of
18 Coordination for the First Wave
the major challenges to decision-makers critical for managing such vital tasks, are in the country in the initial weeks of not functional in any part of this country. the pandemic. From provincial health This has meant that the lowest unit of authorities to district administration, the information collection is the district level, information pouring in was fragmented, which is still too aggregated, particularly unreliable and non-granular. in rural areas. What makes this dilemma a little easier, though, is that Covid-19 The collection, processing and analysis of has been more of an urban phenomenon data became one of the NCOC’s primary in Pakistan, making it comparatively tasks. Fortunately for policymakers, the simpler to create information collection country already has a solid framework for mechanisms. data collection and management available due to its long battle with another Many have argued that a complete unrelenting virus: polio. The Integrated picture is still not available, even if they Disease Information Management System concede that there is enough to make (IDIMS) was created in 2015 – itself the decisions with. Reports and accusations product of a centralised response to a of misreporting the numbers have been health crisis, it must be noted – as one rampant since the pandemic broke out consolidated mechanism in which real- in Pakistan.27 Despite all that could have time data from regional, provincial and been done better, though, the collection national levels could be accessed in one and processing of data has been an area of place.25 Having a platform to store data cooperation rather than conflict between which has been gathered from ground centre and provinces. Data seems to have level and is analysed at the top has proven made its place as a politically-neutral invaluable in the struggle against polio essential — the gathering and collation over the past few years. of which has been recognised as being a vital element of the Covid-19 response The IDIMS was quickly adapted to for all parties involved. Both the federal Covid-19 needs. It allowed for high-level and provincial governments have set data analytics which enabled policymakers an example, through the NCOC, of the at NCOC and in the provinces to map benefits of a coordinated effort to reach disease projections and take decisions policy decisions. over “smart” lockdowns. IDIMS is also the skeleton behind the detailed and regularly 2.3 A Critique of the updated Covid-19 dashboard set up by the Institutional Response federal government.26 There is little doubt that the Covid-19 However, any information management response has been clearer and better system is only as good as the data fed into coordinated since the NCOC was formed. it. The lowest, most localised tier for state Over the many months since the NCOC outreach is missing. Local governments,
19 Stress Testing Pakistani Federalism - Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic Response
began operations, coordination has whether disparagingly or admiringly, smoothed and there is, broadly speaking, the NCOC as a “hybrid” institution, genuine institutional stability and i.e. comprising both civil and military ownership of national decisions related to leadership. Starting with the chief Covid-19. coordinator at the top, there are at least 70 army officers working at the NCOC.28 However, the initial discord between the Senior-most officials like the Chief of centre and at least one of its federating Army Staff, the Chief of General Staff, units sharply contrasted with its reliance and the Director General of Military on executive institutions such as the NCOC Operations have also been occasionally and NDMA. It also throws up important involved in the NCOC’s functioning, questions regarding why disaster while the Inter-Services Public Relations management authorities in Pakistan have (ISPR) continues to play an important role almost exclusively been chaired by military in public communications around the personnel. Up until the retirement of pandemic. According to NCOC insiders, the military official leading the NDMA in however, there is no doubt that the December 2020, he was heading both the civilian chairperson of the unit, the federal NDMA and Earthquake Reconstruction Minister for Planning, is firmly in charge of and Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA) calling the shots. simultaneously. In its current disposition though, there Several commentators have identified, is no agreed methodology nor formula
1 NE P , COAS, federal ministers, P A and 23 DEC 15 M RC 22 PRIL 27 L chief ministers attend COC informs of Government COAS visits COC session COC meeting to 3 NO government s announces COC Discussion held in discuss strategy CC commitment to formation of held on national Peshawar to rules out early availability of CC on strategy for test, discuss complete Covid 1 vaccine Covid 1 trace and coordination loc down uarantine 2 NE between COC team provinces and 1 DEC visits federal capital 2 M RC 31 May NCOC finalises hospitals in all COC is formed COC releases a vaccine procurement provinces to to unify national esource recommendations assess 13 OCT effort against anagement medical COC issues new guidelines Covid 1 and System spanning situation on public gatherings to be , hospitals implement CC implemented in all provinces decisions
Figure 03: Timeline of the NCOC
20 Coordination for the First Wave
about the NCOC’s decision-making. Is outside the realms of any legislation, NCOC a consultative or a prescriptive constitutional mandate or parliamentary forum? What is the delineation of the purview. Unlike, for instance, the NDMA manner in which decisions are made? which has legislative cover, the NCOC is How is decision-making distributed currently an extra-legal body, ostensibly between civil and military leaders? How meant to exist as long as Covid-19 does.29 does provincial representation figure into This means that the federal government NCOC decisions? Are decisions based must ultimately determine the future of on unanimity, majority, or a show of the NCOC and how to utilise this platform hands? The NCOC makes life and death for coordination once the pandemic is decisions that affect over 220 million behind us. At the moment, at least, the people, yet the mechanisms that shape its government intention seems to be clear: decision-making are relatively abstract the NCOC is a temporary unit and will be and yet to be codified. Federal government wound up as soon as the pandemic is over. representatives associated with the NCOC The vision behind creating a body such claim that no decision has been taken as the NCOC to coordinate a response without the consent of all provinces and across the federation was a necessary first that any apparent friction stems purely step. In order to build on this platform, it from political posturing on part of the falls on its constituents to have concrete opposition. answers to these questions and concerns Experts have also raised questions — in particular regarding the future of regarding the process of establishing the the NCOC and how any such platforms NCOC. Notwithstanding its functioning can be made even more consultative going or efficiency, it has been created via an forward. ad hoc arrangement which is effectively
21 Stress Testing Pakistani Federalism - Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic Response
Table 01: Risks & Challenges
Time Risk Factor Nature of Risk Explanation Mitigation Frame
The administrative efficiency Retaining key required in dealing with a positions with civilian Enhanced pandemic cannot come at leadership role of Long- the cost of hard-fought military in key Democratic term civilian space. The marked Identifying specific government increase in military presence areas where military institutions in the government may have assistance is most long-run ramifications. required
Recognising provinces as the A top-down approach taken primary decision- by the NCOC can place making tier further strain on federal Centralised Federal harmony in the country. Redirecting all efforts Medium- decision- Health is a devolved subject to support provinces term making powers Political and presuming to override in ways they require the federal structure in the interest of expediency may Developing a have political costs. consultative approach instead of a directive one
The on-ground Covid-19 realities and requirements Empowering local Disconnect in Pakistan are as governments and between top- geographically diverse Short- administration to level policy Administrative as the state itself. In the term make and implement and on-ground absence of robust local policies in line with reality governments, there is a risk their realities of using a one-size-fits-all approach.
At the moment, there is still no verifiable proof that it is Facilitating an the decisions taken by the independent No linkage Strategic Short to NCOC which have averted research into the between policy medium- the Covid-19 crisis. It is causes of Covid-19 and outcome Policy term not necessary that future containment in decision-making based on Pakistan and learning the same model will deliver from this analysis similar results.
22 03
The Covid-19 pandemic is as much Communication tactics for the of an “information crisis” as it is a Covid-19 response that have been public health crisis. Governments adopted by Pakistani authorities around the world continue to include press briefings, press struggle to make decisions with releases, policy statements, public limited data and constantly service messages and celebrity evolving information. They are or thought leader endorsements. also consistently having to battle The means used included both disinformation, mistrust and the traditional media such as print seemingly endless proliferation and radio, new media through of conspiracy theories that Twitter, Facebook and TikTok, invalidate and challenge science and television advertisements, news medicine. Majoritarian and populist talk shows and discussions, and instincts among political leaders, pre-recorded telephone messages public figures, and leading media and caller tones. Official outreach personalities also tend to diminish messages were communicated in the capacity of governments to five different Pakistani languages. communicate about the pandemic The content of the messaging with consistency and on the back of focused on awareness about and evidence. the importance of complying with
During the Pandemic Standard Operating Procedures Like everywhere else, officials in or SOPs for the pandemic, such as Pakistan have also had to contend frequent handwashing, the use of Crisis Communications with an incomplete understanding masks, physical distancing, and of the disease, whilst being beset by urging people to take ownership an economic crisis that predated and responsibility for infection the virus’ arrival. With public health prevention. being a devolved subject, it took time and political contestation before an Like other aspects of the Covid-19 integrated national response was response, the overall public possible. In the ensuing vacuum, a communications strategy for number of significant challenges the pandemic was complicated for public communication about by political competitiveness Covid-19, its risks, necessary and contested public narratives precautions, and most recently, about the disease. It is important, vaccination, have emerged. hence, to have a close look at the implications of the federal structure
23 Stress Testing Pakistani Federalism - Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic Response
of Pakistani governance for Covid-19 crisis prime minister underplayed the public communications. health impact of the pandemic, other leaders, including chief ministers of other 3.1 Conflicting Signals and provinces, and some from within his own Mixed Messaging party, offered stark warnings.31
The first wave of Covid-19 in Pakistan In several public statements, the prime witnessed a competitive dynamic minister declared the option of a wholesale between the federal government and the lockdown to be anti-poor, and an idea provincial government in Sindh. The Sindh that was being propagated by the elite government focused on the urgency of to insulate themselves.32 The Sindh immediate action, following the global government asserted that saving lives was urging to ‘flatten the curve’ and locking more important than the economy, since down till the medical infrastructure was the former could not be revived whereas in place to cope with increasing cases. the latter could. The public debate was The prime minister, on the other hand, cast as a simplistic ‘lives vs. livelihoods’ focused on the economic vulnerability standoff. This was eventually resolved of the poor in the case of a protracted through the notion of “smart lockdowns”, lockdown, opposing it as the de facto or in which data analytics would be devised to immediate response. Resultantly, there was identify Covid-19 hotspots. Once identified, substantial public debate both on whether these areas would be isolated whilst others a lockdown was required or not, and on – especially commercial areas – would whether – once it was announced – there be allowed to continue functioning. The was really any need to abide by it. prime minister approved of the “smart lockdowns” idea, and was also credited Different and divergent messages about by his supporters for having conceived it. the need for a lockdown likely had a In this way, the binary nature of the lives substantial negative impact on the vs. livelihoods debate was at least partly enforceability of the lockdowns, and addressed. anecdotal evidence suggests that public officials, including police and district Concurrent to the emergence of this administrators, faced higher than debate, the Supreme Court took suo motu usual resistance to the enforcement of notice of the efforts to restrict business as precautionary actions such as physical usual and issued directives in May 2020 for distancing and masking — in part due markets across the country to be reopened. to mixed messaging. In the early days of The court’s declaration of market closures the pandemic, many communications as a violation of fundamental rights was experts deemed the overall approach to unhelpful to the evidence-based approach crisis communications for Covid-19 to that was being adopted through smart have been an utter failure.30 Whereas the lockdowns. Critics of the decision say it
24 Crisis Communications During the Pandemic
interfered with executive agency at both to minimise congregational prayers by federal and provincial levels, undoing adopting a campaign under the slogan their freedom to make decisions based of “every home is a mosque”. The idea on merits and demerits. Indeed, after the was to discourage large gatherings and Supreme Court’s instructions on markets, encourage “stay at home” approaches to even the NCOC had to adopt a careful worship and religious social interactions. approach to framing the closure of shops Yet when religious leaders protested and malls. Although the Supreme Court the government’s attempts to minimise later walked back the vociferousness of crowding at mosques, markets and other its earlier statements, yet another signal social venues, the authorities were unable of mixed messages and unclear public to resist. The demand that mosques be communications had been delivered to the exempted was agreed to. The die had been people. cast, and other religious congregations, To minimise the communication crisis, such as the annual Tableeghi Jamaat a task force on Risk Communication and conference at Raiwind was also exempted. Community Engagement was formed More than 70,000 devotees congregated under the Ministry of National Health for that conference during the height of Services with representatives from other the first wave of Covid-19 in Pakistan.33 ministries and development partners. The Public censure drove the government to military’s media wing, ISPR, assisted the revoke the permission and the organisers federal government in strategising for were asked to wrap up earlier than increasing outreach. anticipated — but the damage had been done. Other groups, including traders, 3.2 Impact of Mixed private school owners and businesses Messaging catering to low-income groups were all given the tools to argue that they too Tensions between various state deserved exemptions from lockdowns. The organisations and authorities were Council of Islamic Ideology, upon a request initially exacerbated due to political for input by the Lahore High Court, rivalries, past propensities such as that of advised the government to discontinue the a populist, interventionist court, and news use of its central slogan, “Don’t be afraid media personalities who pushed whichever of Covid-19, fight it” as it was deemed un- side of the debate they identified with, Islamic.34 instead of nurturing dialogue. This inconsistency also spilled over to how Such convoluted and mixed messaging, the state engaged with religious groups. and reversals of decisions resulted in a During the holy month of Ramadan, and deepening politicisation and polarisation on Eid ul Fitr, the government sought of public health issues during the pandemic. The initial conflicting messages
25 Stress Testing Pakistani Federalism - Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic Response
emanating from authorities led to people Perhaps consequently, as many as underplaying the importance – initially 37 percent of the population claimed that of the lockdown – and eventually of the they would refuse vaccination for Covid- pandemic itself. When one group was 19.36 afforded permission for one kind of Citizens’ trust in public officials is shaken, congregation, local authorities had trouble though it cannot be causally attributed only arguing with other groups demanding to the Covid-19 response. In a Gallup poll, similar exceptional treatment. Like all when asked whose advice people trusted other countries in which politics has the most regarding the Coronavirus, 68 trumped public safety, polls in Pakistan percent said they trust doctors the most, also show that many citizens simply followed by 11 percent who said they trust do not believe in the existence of the religious leaders and only 5 percent said novel Coronavirus. A survey by Gallup they trust politicians.37 Experts have noted Pakistan on public perceptions, attitudes the corrosive effect political distrust has and behaviours around the pandemic on democratic politics, its association with conducted in June 2020 found that 55 lower compliance, higher enforcement percent of people in Pakistan believe the costs and its manifestation of the problems threat of Covid-19 had been exaggerated.35 of representation.38 They point out that
2014
arch arch pril 1 892 cases 1,000 Cases 4,074 Cases Federal government Federal government s P n a government e tends lockdo n co ntr - ide lockdo n anno ces lockdo n t o eeks is anno nced ntil th pril
Sindh government alochistan anno nces lockdo n government anno nces ntil th pril lockdo n ntil th pril
h er Pakht nkh a ilgit- altistan government anno nces government anno nces partial lockdo n ntil lockdo n ntil th pril th arch
a 9 pril pril 1 l 1 29,465 Cases 11,940 Cases 5,985 Cases 279,146 Federal government Federal government Federal government Cases lockdo n ends in e tends lockdo n e tends lockdo n Pakistan t o eeks t o eeks
Figure 04: Timeline of lockdown strategies
26 Crisis Communications During the Pandemic
Impact on Mixed Impact on Public Governance Messaging
Friction et een e ate on lives vs centres of governance livelihoods
ndermined provincial Lo er levels of risk decision-making perception
Lack of instit tional on-compliance tr st et een ith S Ps government tiers
Figure 05: The Impacts of Mixed Messaging allowing distrust to fester piles on social The already tense relationship between and political costs, inhibiting the basic the Sindh government and federal levels of consensus a political entity government risks becoming even more needs for the smooth operations of key complicated by such issues, especially governance functions.39 during the efforts to contain the damage from the pandemic. Similar conflicting decisions and uncertainties dogged the debate on the Despite all these challenges, there is closure and re-opening of schools. This also evidence that coordinated public issue in particular stumped governments communications efforts were attempted all over the world, given the high in some cases, and these have generated opportunity costs of both opening and successful outcomes. One example closing educational institutes, with was the speed with which both the no global consensus. In Pakistan the federal government and the provincial contesting viewpoints have again been government in Punjab launched television- exacerbated by concurring issues. In based fora for digital and long-distance the midst of the pandemic and school learning during school closures. The closures, the National Curriculum Council TeleSchool and Taleem Ghar applications adopted the Single National Curriculum were both organised in record time, and (SNC). Since education is a devolved on extremely small budgets, immediately subject, many experts worry that even after the Covid-19 crisis emerged. These with provincial participation and approval, television channels cater to over 27 million the methodology and process by which students across the country.40 There are the SNC has been adopted merits revision. other powerful examples of important
27 Stress Testing Pakistani Federalism - Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic Response
public communications efforts that were and outcome-focused communication made in the early days of the pandemic, channels were created and deployed. The that benefitted from the coherence, data NCOC’s role as a data clearinghouse for the and learning that the NCOC made possible. pandemic response may have played a vital Behavioural science was used, for example, role in improved public communications. to sharpen and improve the public service The need to institutionalise lessons will messages that were added to the caller be critical for reinforcing confidence in tunes. To draw more robust conclusions equitable centre-province relations and in about the impact of these messages shoring up public trust to help counter the requires greater investment in research next major crisis that the country faces. on behavioural aspects of the Covid-19 response.
The initial frictions and confusion during the pandemic were eased once inclusive
28 04
One of the key operational MNA hired trucks with loudspeakers challenges that the government mounted on them, and got the faced, especially once the policy local mosque leaders to accompany coordination and procurement the trucks as they drove through challenges had been addressed via neighbourhoods with public service the NCOC and NDMA respectively, announcements about the need for was how decisions agreed upon physical distancing and staying at the NCOC would be executed at home. In Sindh, MPAs became on-ground. Conversely, one of the involved in local service delivery, key questions that faced both the especially the delivery of food and provincial governments in their basic needs. Ad hoc expressions of autonomous capacity, and the NCOC elected representatives becoming as a collective forum, was how data, involved in Covid-19 relief efforts information and insights from the were manifest in all provinces. grassroots would reach decision- However, the formal mechanisms makers in provincial capitals and for such participation were limited. Local Decisions,Local in Islamabad. Among the many This was primarily because local innovations that were adopted to governments in all four provinces address the accurate and timely are largely either non-functional, or flow of information and decision- extremely limited in their role, scope making from bottom to top and top and operations.42 to bottom, was the deployment of army officers to collate and report 4.1 The pre-Covid-19 data on the status of large public Local Government hospitals in the early days of the first Context wave of the pandemic. Concurrently, many decisions that needed local Since 2010, the Constitution has execution were communicated by devolved the responsibility for legislating and establishing local Governance & Operations Governance provincial authorities to district administrators, with no element of governments to the provinces. The representation or participation at provinces have been slow to respond the local level.41 to this opportunity, with reluctance driven by a lack of trust in local Conscious of the absence of governments, a lack of political will local ownership over several to devolve power further, and a lack Covid-19 related decisions, of provincial capacity. Nevertheless, many parliamentarians have all four federating units in independently created avenues to Pakistan have managed to pass engage the people. In Peshawar, one their respective local government
29 Stress Testing Pakistani Federalism - Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic Response
Table 02: Interprovincial Comparison of Local Governments 41 42
Length of Tiers/Classes of Local Notes on autonomy and service Province Term Government delivery
2 tiers (Tehsil and Village Only 8 subjects remain in the purview Khyber Council) 4 years of local governments, as opposed to a Pakhtunkhwa District level tier abolished by historical 24 under the KPLGA 2013 KPLGA 2019
2 tiers in rural areas Similar to other provinces, there is considerable provincial oversight and Balochistan 4 years 1 tier with 3 non-hierarchical classes of local governments control over functions that typically fall in urban areas under the purview of local governments
Overriding influence of provincial 5 non-hierarchical classes of government in all functions of local local governments government and HR management Punjab 5 years District level tier abolished by District Health Authority, set up by PLGA PLGA 2019 2013 abolished and health as a subject returned to provincial government
3 tiers in Karachi
Either 2 tiers or 1 tier in other urban areas depending on population size. Each local Local bodies such as Karachi Metropolitan body class differws based on Corporation do not have control over typical Sindh 4 years population size. LG functions. 2 tiers in rural areas Basic municipal functions have been held by the provincial assembly District councils and union councils retained; intermediary taluka council removed
30 Local Decisions, Governance & Operations
acts (LGA). The LGA provisions within district levels, respectively. Perhaps the provincial laws have also changed several weakest local governments in Pakistan times over the last decade, creating a lack are in Balochistan, where invalid ballots, of stability and continuity in the wake of low voter turnout and constantly eroding constantly changing rules of the game. legitimacy has rendered the role played by the third tier of government severely The legislation and structure of local limited.46 governments varies greatly between the provinces, but seems to represent a hybrid In line with a Supreme Court order, between two local government regimes all provinces completed their local enacted by military dictators — one by government election process in 2015. General Zia ul Haq in 1979, and the other Of these, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and by General Pervez Musharraf in 2001. They Balochistan’s local governments completed borrow from the three-tiered system built their terms in 2019, and Punjab’s local around districts, tehsils and union councils bodies were dissolved when the PLGA but differ in terms of the number of 2019 was passed.47 While Azad Jammu subjects devolved to the district level, the and Kashmir (AJK) and Gilgit Baltistan length of their respective terms, defining (GB) are special cases, a similar neglect the basic unit of government and the regarding local governance has prevailed number of tiers in the local government in these regions as well. The last local body structure among others. elections in AJK were held in 1991, and in GB in 2004.48 The level of empowerment invested by the provinces in each of these local When the Covid-19 pandemic arrived in government systems seems to be Pakistan, only Sindh had functioning local decreasing. By removing the district tier governments — though their functioning and revoking most of the 24 subjects in was nominal, at best. In January 2020, its purview, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa the PTI had proposed a bill in the Sindh government has effectively rendered Assembly to make amendments to the the tehsil and village council tiers Sindh LGA of 2013, arguing for a more subservient to the unelected district robust set of powers for the third tier of administration.43 44 In Punjab, district government and a change in the structure health authorities have been returned of Sindh’s local bodies.49 In July 2020, to the provincial government’s domain, the Supreme Court held a hearing for the which has also reserved the right to block PTI’s petition against the Sindh LGA of any local government decision it deems 2013.50 At the end of August 2020, as they prejudicial to the public interest.45 The completed their four-year term, all local Sindh government reserves a similar bodies in Sindh stood dissolved. right, made all the more intense by the At present, the Election Commission of political rivalry between the PPP and Pakistan (ECP) is unable to hold the next MQM which dominate the provincial and round of elections due to a delay in the
31 Stress Testing Pakistani Federalism - Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic Response
delimitation of constituencies, which can representative is a shortcut worth only be done when data from the sixth taking. However, many decades of population census is made available. experimentation with such structures During this time, local government reveals that the performance of such powers have either been revoked by a system varies significantly across provincial governments or the district jurisdictions, and not every officer is as administration has stepped in to oversee efficient as the best among them. critical social and municipal services. This Local governments could have made a has led to several observers noting the lack qualitative difference in the collection of legitimacy that infects decision-making of data from neighbourhood, street and and service delivery, as unelected officials household levels for which there can be no or district administrators dominate better source than elected representatives grassroots and local level decisions, who are also residents of the area. Elected governance and operations. local representatives would also manifest 4.2 Filling the LG Vacuum: the widest and deepest stock of social and political capital to support vaccination District Administration to efforts and to counter false and malicious Tiger Force information about the virus. Local The absence of clear insights, actionable government officials as elected community data and implementable instructions representatives would also have enabled for local level actors accentuated the policy implementation and enforcement, governance challenges faced by the given how unsustainable and ineffective country in the initial Covid-19 response. In attempts at forcible adherence to SOPs effect, district administrators (especially has been all around the world. District Commissioners, or DCs and An apt example from Islamabad is Assistant Commissioners, or ACs) and a long-standing tussle between the the wider elite bureaucratic machinery, unelected Capital Development Authority led by the Pakistan Administrative (CDA) and the elected Metropolitan Service, exercise nearly total and absolute Corporation Islamabad (MCI). The CDA control of managing the pandemic was meant to serve as the implementation response at the ground level. The allure arm of the MCI, but has continued to of this model is obvious. PAS officers are retain its bureaucratic independence. generalists that are trained to mobilise The federal government, on the other and deliver results on short budgets and hand, also took several key directorates minimal instructions. For many that from the city government, causing seek technocratic solutions to political the first elected mayor to tender his problems, an all-powerful administrator resignation.51 The entire Covid-19 rather than an “unqualified” public response, as a result, has been solely the
32 Local Decisions, Governance & Operations
Poor Data Collection
Absence of Local Government
indrances Lack of Public To Policy Representation Implementation
Figure 06: Impacts of Missing Local Governments domain of the district commissioner, comprised of young volunteers would be or DC Islamabad. By happenstance, the created to assist the government with its incumbent DC Islamabad is perhaps the efforts. The Sindh government opted out most social media savvy public servant of the effort. The CRTF was constituted in the country, and has adroitly managed to help out in ration distribution, both the administrative and the public monitoring the implementation of communications aspects of the pandemic. guidelines regarding social distancing and But Islamabad is one of over 130 districts, market timings, and generating Covid-19 and there are few examples of the same ilk. awareness.
Conscious of the absence of local level Critics of the ruling party had already ownership of decisions and the obvious begun to term it as an unnecessary potential challenge of enforcement, the “parallel force” with no legal cover, when government decided to establish the the scope of the CRTF was increased to Corona Relief Tiger Force (CRTF) — a also include price inspections, supervising nationwide collective of ruling party utility stores, checking hoarding and members who would voluntarily serve helping with tree plantations.52 Despite to implement and help enforce Covid-19 the initial noise surrounding the CRTF, SOPs. In March 2020, the prime minister few if any districts have seen any kind of announced that a one-million-strong force sustained engagement of the CRTF in the
33 Stress Testing Pakistani Federalism - Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic Response
functions it was conceived for. Anecdotally, is currently built upon any number of many of the gaps in local enforcement stopgap arrangements, all of which are or implementation are left for district predestined to be unable to serve as a administrators to plug — mostly without substitute for elected, representative and the adequate resources needed for such robust local governments. The success plugging. of the NCOC in coordinating, or the NDMA in procuring, or individual cases The outsourcing of such primary of DCs responding to Covid-19 does not functions to unelected officials or undermine one of the most foundational volunteer forces is a further indication lessons from the pandemic: local decisions, of the void left by local governments. At local governance, local operations of the the most substantive level of engagement state all require urgent attention. between citizen and state, the federation
34 05
On March 24, 2020 Prime Minister pandemic, the government had Imran Khan announced an economic already allocated in its FY19-20 stimulus package to mitigate the budget PKR 190.5 billion for cash fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic. transfers to the poor.56 According Amidst a host of measures was a to Ehsaas, this amount constituted special provision for the poorest about 93 percent of the EEC and most vulnerable, including payments.57 The federal government daily wage labourers across the mobilised an additional PKR 4.88 country.53 This funding was billion specifically from the Prime channelled to citizens through Minister’s Covid Relief Fund. the Ehsaas programme, which The ability of the government to operates under the mandate of repurpose an existing national the federal government’s social programme that is run by the protection arm, the Benazir Income federal government for income Support Programme (BISP). The support during Covid-19 was one government’s flagship Covid-19
& Basic Income of the most important mitigating relief initiative, the Ehsaas factors in how Pakistan dealt Emergency Cash (EEC) programme Social Protection with the pandemic. The Ehsaas was launched on April 1, 2020, “to programme and BISP infrastructure help them buy rations so they don’t that enabled it offer a useful go hungry”.54 The EEC was designed case study of how, within federal to support more than 16 million structures, national programmes households through a one-time can be deployed for citizen well- PKR 12,000 cash grant. Originally being in emergencies. with a total budget of PKR 203 billion, nearly PKR 180 billion had been distributed to over 15 million 5.1 Federal v. Provincial households across the country.55 Social Protection Programmes The government benefited from having much of the BISP and The experience with social security Ehsaas infrastructure, as well as and social protection in Pakistan the funding for the cash transfer, dates back to the 1970s, when the already in place. Cash grants would government set up the Workers’ have been made to a portion of Welfare Fund and the Employees’ EEC beneficiaries, irrespective of Old-Age Benefits Institute (EOBI). the outbreak — but the pandemic In the 1980s, the first generic social significantly altered both the assistance programme, the Zakat timelines and the quantum of Fund, was introduced. This was the cash grant. Predating the followed by the Pakistan Baitul
35 Stress Testing Pakistani Federalism - Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic Response
Maal Fund (PBM) in the early 1990s. These mention social protection as a service schemes were self-financing by way of delivery function, however, the Ministry taxes and levies, however, the PBM was of Social Welfare and Special Education more inclusive in its scope compared to and the Ministry of Zakat and Ushr – the Zakat Fund, which was restricted to both related to social protection – were destitute and widowed Muslims.58 abolished at the federal level during the retrenchment process initiated by It was not until 2007 when the government the devolution resulting from the 18th introduced a National Social Protection Amendment. Many have interpreted this Strategy (NSPS), that set out a more process as indicative of the implication comprehensive approach to social that social protection, like education and protection for the country, with a specific health, was devolved to the provinces. focus on social safety nets. In order to However, the BISP Act was approved by respond to the challenges identified in the same Parliament that legislated the the NSPS, the coalition government that 18th Amendment, during the same year. formed after the 2008 elections established It seems unlikely that BISP was intended the Benazir Income Support Programme to be devolved to the provinces, given (BISP). BISP has been managed entirely that Parliament had ample opportunity to by the federal government since its articulate such an intent through not one, inception. Provincial roles are limited to but two legislative processes. some administrative and coordination capacities, while the centre runs the As the largest social protection and income programme, funds it entirely with support programme of its time, BISP has federal money, makes all decisions about been widely lauded as a successful model allocations, and manages its monitoring with millions of beneficiaries in the poorest and evaluation. Funding support for segments of the Pakistani population.59 BISP and Ehsaas includes contributions Despite its success, such a structure does from bilateral aid programmes, as well generate overlaps in the role of federal as loans from the World Bank — but the and provincial governments in social overwhelming majority of Ehsaas and protection, as well as possible duplication BISP programme funding is through the of resources. This is manifested in the federal government’s own resources. social protection programmes that have The identification of beneficiaries was been initiated and that are now operating originally made on the basis of submissions at the provincial level, though the scope from elected representatives, but this was of activities of these programmes varies replaced with a national database linked across provinces. poverty scorecard. At the provincial level, the Punjab The Constitution does not specifically government has the most comprehensive
36 Social Protection & Basic Income
set of programmes — consolidated with budget and it was recognised that poverty the launch of the Punjab Social Protection reduction would remain subdued in the Authority in 2015. This was done on near future. The Asian Development Bank recommendation of the World Bank to (ADB) stated, “cash transfers under the consolidate social protection initiatives BISP can and should be quickly stepped up undertaken by the various government to mitigate adverse social consequences”.60 departments and agencies in Punjab, In this context, the May 2019 agreement through which a cumulative expenditure between the IMF and the Government of PKR 60 billion was expected to be of Pakistan for the 39-month Extended incurred in 2013. In continuation of its Fund Arrangement (EFA) included own rebranding of social protection, the certain qualifications. After fears that Government of Punjab is also launching social protection would be scaled back to Ehsaas-Punjab, built on the model of create fiscal space, the IMF emphasised the national Ehsaas programme, which in a subsequent press release that it had will focus on cash grants for the elderly, advised that any cost cutting should widows and orphans, transgenders and be “accompanied by prudent spending PWDs. growth aimed at preserving essential Other provincial governments also have development spending, scaling up BISP social welfare departments set up under and improving targeted subsidies, with the explicit mandate of the two devolved the goal of protecting the most vulnerable ministries at the federal level, though the segments of society under the umbrella of scope of these varies across provinces. For the government’s new Ehsaas Programme instance, the Balochistan Welfare Services (including BISP).”61 62 are mostly focused on shelter homes, relief The institutional arrangement for centres and literacy-related projects. BISP and the financial allocation 5.2 Leveraging BISP for Ehsaas were, therefore, in place and could be disbursed almost immediately. However, and Ehsaas for EEC the government was able to start the The need for further scaling up a disbursements only in May 2020, after programme such as BISP was widely the lockdown had been lifted. This was agreed upon even prior to the pandemic, because it needed to scale up the number owing to the threat of growing poverty of recipients for the cash transfer from 4.6 and the precarious nature of livelihoods million BISP recipients to 12 million (and for the poor and vulnerable. Prior to later 16 million) EEC qualified recipients. Covid-19, a 17.5 percent cut in development The expanded scope of beneficiaries to spending had been announced in the those beyond the previous catchment to include ‘the new poor’ posed a challenge,
37 Stress Testing Pakistani Federalism - Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic Response
given the inadequacy of the database of web portal. This was the only category poor and vulnerable citizens, additional for which the Prime Minister’s Covid-19 means of identification would be required. Relief Fund was utilised and there was The Division of Poverty Alleviation and no pre-existing fiscal allocation. Social Safety created five categories of recipients.63 5. Spill-over list of other categories, adding up to 2.45 million beneficiaries. 1. The existing, identified 5 million In contrast to the pandemic politics in BISP women beneficiaries, now called much of the developed world, there was Ehsaas Kafaalat.64 no political opposition to the idea of 2. The 4 million ‘new poor’ drawn from immediate cash transfers to the poor and the existing database from an income vulnerable. The federal government, in fact, band previously not labelled as the was urged to give more; to not limit it to a ‘poorest people’, i.e. beneficiaries one-time payment and that repeated such self-identified through SMS, cross- payments would be required. checked with national identity card Categories 1 and 2 of beneficiaries (totalling (NIC) numbers.65 The division of nine million people) were consistent with beneficiaries was consistent with the systematically developed National provincial population shares as per the Socio Economic Registry (NSER), the 2017 census. poverty database and registry. The latter three categories were created under time 3. Another 4.2 million ‘new poor’ constraints and in urgency. The need to identified at the district level. Category establish three new categories is a product 3A was introduced for any province of the long delay in updating the NSER — a wanting to increase provincial longstanding issue that predates Covid-19. beneficiaries by allocating additional In category 3, the mechanism used provincial budgets. emanated from the NCOC, which directed the chief secretaries of all provinces 4. 1.26 million individuals who applied to ensure the executive heads of each through a web-based portal hosted on district in provinces, the DCs, made lists the prime minister’s website. This was of deserving beneficiaries. The provinces meant specifically for labourers and were also involved, since secretaries are wage earners who suffered livelihood employees of provincial governments, but losses, on the assumption that daily the mechanism circumvented participation wage labourers would be aware of this of elected officials by functioning entirely initiative, will be able to access the through the bureaucracy. Category 3A internet and fill out applications on a allowed provincial governments to add
38 Social Protection & Basic Income
their own beneficiaries with 1.69% 0.75% 0.49% the condition that those cash ad ammu Gilgit Baltistan Islamabad transfers would be paid for by & ashmir the provincial governments 43.18 % themselves. 4.94 Pun ab Balochistan Only the Punjab government exercised this option. MPA 17.93% Sanaullah Baloch from hyber Balochistan pointed out that Pakhtunkh a provincial governments were impeded in their ability for doing so, since the federal government does not release provincial budgetary allocations 31.04% Sindh in time and staggers payments to shore up their own accounts — leaving provinces strapped Figure 07: Provincial Share in Ehsaas Cash for cash despite allocated shares. Through the pandemic, provincial governments mostly seemed to let the federal government lead on
Category cash transfers and focused their 2,450,000 Category I own resources on trying to shore 5,000,000 up their health infrastructure, facilities and supply lines.
In category 4 and 5, there were Category I no provincial quotas and no data 1,260,000 has been officially released of how many people were selected, and from where specifically. Experts have expressed some reservations about the mechanism of using Category III a web portal for outreach to 4,200,000 Category II daily wage labourers, given 4,000,000 their general lack of literacy and internet access and inability to navigate online forums. However, Figure 08: Number of Beneficiaries by Ehsaas Categories there has been no outreach
39 Stress Testing Pakistani Federalism - Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic Response
evaluation yet to decisively state whether it rural and remote areas, and has far more worked for the majority or not. rural beneficiaries than urban.
These reservations are about the efficacy The challenge remains that the Covid-19 of targeting, not fraud, corruption or the pandemic has affected urban and peri- absence of disbursements. The coordinator urban areas more than rural areas. If the for social protection for the Chief Minister emergency cash transfer was intended to of Sindh, Haris Gazdar observes that unlike help people cope with the pandemic and the usual procedure of laborious screening lockdown, then it was mistargeted since and bureaucratic delays for transfers, there there was effectively no lockdown and very was an opposite push during the pandemic: limited virus outbreaks in rural Pakistan. to quickly identify and transfer amounts in However, he points out that economic a rush. Economist Asad Sayeed points out conditions have been so dire, even prior to that BISP targeted the poorest of the poor, the economic impact of Covid-19, that the hence was more skewed towards those in rural poor are needy and deserving of the
Table 03: Provincial Breakdown of Ehsaas Emergency Cash Beneficiaries66
Number of eligible Population % % share in Ehsaas Cash beneficiaries (2017 census)
Punjab 7,003,260 43.18 51.57
Sindh 5,034,275 31.04 22.45
KP 2,908,352 17.93 16.65
Balochistan 800,803 4.94 5.79
AJK 273,653 1.69 1.90
GB 121,072 0.75 0.70
Islamabad 79,151 0.49 0.94
Total 16,220,566 100 100
This table does not include Category III A, which is funded by the provincial government of Punjab
40 Social Protection & Basic Income
amounts in any case. Job losses in urban The broad political consensus favouring areas also struck daily wage earners who, the rapid expansion and immediate in a number of cases, travel to the cities for deployment of public funds for cash work from rural settlements. grants through the federal government indicates the enormous potential of a Current MNA and Punjab’s former federalist spirit, in which the question of Minister of Finance, Dr. Aisha Ghaus agency and the importance of control take Pasha points out that provincial labour a back seat to rapid and effective delivery. departments could have been involved for The greatest endorsement of the Ehsaas effective targeting since they have some Emergency Cash – regardless of whatever level of information on daily labourers and limitations it may have had technically wage earners in the province, however – is its almost universal acceptance as cursory or rudimentary a form it may an important means of mitigating the be in. The labour departments, however, impact of a crisis on poor and vulnerable were not involved in the identification Pakistanis. For sceptics of both the extent process and instead, phone-ins, self-sent of Pakistani federalism, and its limitations, SMS messages and web-based applications the EEC is a vital and instructive symbol of were used. its potency.
41 42 06
As with almost all large-scale crises, political parties to perhaps examine the nature and scale of the Covid-19 their stance on American federalism pandemic warranted a “national” more carefully. response — not just a federal or In Pakistan, Covid-19 struck at a provincial one. Disaster responses, peculiar political and historical however, do not occur in a political juncture. The ruling party forms the vacuum; they are shaped by the federal government and a majority interface between the nature of or coalition government in three calamity, the people’s experience of & Lessons of the four provinces. The party it, the political negotiations between with the second-largest majority those who make and implement the – holding the office of Leader of Conclusions response strategy, and the dynamics Opposition – on the other hand, did of past interfaces. not have a provincial government Across the globe, the pandemic and hence sat out the subsequent has brought the federalism debate political battles. The only province to the centre of governance, given where a political party not aligned to concerns over decision-making and the one ruling at the centre is Sindh. power-sharing dynamics. In order to One of the primary motifs in the better contextualise the challenges analysis in this paper is the initial of Pakistani federalism, this section standoff over the Covid-19 response briefly reflects on three other between the federal government countries and their positioning in Islamabad and the provincial on the centralisation-devolution government in Sindh — even spectrum. though they managed to eventually The overall impact of the pandemic work together through the NCOC. has varied significantly. In India, it Otherwise routine political contests has created an impetus to further between a ruling party and an centralise governance and limit opposition party escalated into states’ autonomy in key areas. On a federational challenge. They the other hand, in Malaysia, it has could have metastasised further. enabled a precedence for states to The NCOC and NDMA’s success, challenge the overarching executive the vitality of the EEC, and the authority of the federal government. lower-than-expected burden of Meanwhile, the lack of federal infections and fatalities in both the leadership in the United States has first and the ongoing second wave uncovered partisan bias among of Covid-19, all contributed to the states — leading both its main mitigation of political contestation
43 Stress Testing Pakistani Federalism - Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic Response
around the pandemic response. ¡ the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government took steps for public disclosure for Blaming the 18th Amendment and its budget utilisation and financial the federal structure for impeding the management reforms; government’s ability to respond to the pandemic helped stoke the fears of ¡ the Sindh government set up a website, majoritarian centralisation among political tracking donations raised and what power brokers in Sindh and amongst so- they were spent on; called “peripheral” political forces. This ¡ the Ehsaas database tracked, in real prompted opposition parties and other time, cash transfers to and withdrawals civil society actors to revitalise the issue of by beneficiaries; provincial autonomy, especially in the early ¡ the NDMA maintained public, online days of the pandemic. records of their purchases, acquisitions The 18th Amendment was seen as being and their provincial allotments; and under threat, even though the current ¡ the NCOC uploaded daily situation government has explicitly expressed its reports on their website. alignment with the legislation, and simply These concrete steps testify to a does not have the numbers to overturn substantial increase in transparency in it. In any case, the federal government terms of material resources, outputs and was not actively seeking to subvert outcomes. provincial decision-making and has been more concerned with finding avenues for Lesson: Crises create opportunity. The expanding the funds available to itself. Covid-19 pandemic has created a major Instead of a national conversation on how opportunity to deepen and expand the scope best to free up resources to deal with an of open and transparent data and information unforeseen calamity, the debate became for the public good that will forge a more about the 18th Amendment itself. perfect union, and more robust federal structure. This opportunity requires sustained 6.1 Covid-19 as a Driver for and vigorous follow-up. Data Transparency 6.2 Missing: Administrative All response institutions in Pakistan seemed to have made a significant effort in and Normative Coherence increasing transparency in the wake of the There is a lag, however, between the pandemic. transparency of processes and decision- ¡ The Covid-19 statistics are shared by making that has yet to be overcome. In part the federal government and publicly this is because the mechanisms through updated around the clock; which decision-making takes place at
44 Conclusions and Lessons
the NCOC have not been formalised, nor The NCOC was created as an urgent and published. The NCOC was established by temporary response to the pandemic. the National Coordination Committee It remained the pivotal platform for (NCC) without the scrutiny and debate planning, coordinating and integrating which precedes legislative measures that state response to Covid-19. While establish similar bodies or fora. Unlike the assessments of the quality and efficacy NDMA, the NCOC does not have the legal of the response may differ, policymakers mandate of an act of Parliament. will need to reckon with the structure itself. The NCOC is an ad hoc body with Perhaps more importantly, the NCOC no constitutional mandate, parliamentary represents an aberration on two critical oversight or legally established fronts. First, the issues that NCOC was procedures. designed to tackle – national coordination in a time of Covid-19 – are supposed The current thinking in the government, to be dealt with by the Ministry of as shared by the Minister of Planning Interprovincial Coordination. Second, and Development, is that the NCOC will if the political or provincial-federal be wound up after Covid-19 and an exit disagreement on the issues surrounding strategy has been prepared, through the NCOC were so stark that the MIPC which future disaster management was unable to take them on, then the responsibilities will be shouldered by the constitutionally-mandated forum for the NDMA, while the CCI is strengthened to resolution of this challenge is the CCI. provide oversight.
While the NCOC has representation of Lesson: The expediency of solving an all the provinces, and includes elected operational problem without the underlying officials, bureaucrats and the military, institutional and legislative work, creates neither was it created at or housed administrative gaps and institutional under the Ministry of Inter Provincial overlap (and even, potential conflict). The Coordination (MIPC), nor did the Council government’s plans to terminate the NCOC of Common Interest (CCI) discuss or upon the end of the Covid-19 pandemic crisis endorse its establishment. The absence should be informed by an effort to invest in of rules of business, regulations or other existing mechanisms for national action — formal guidelines for how the NCOC namely the CCI and the MIPC. More robust will work are thus a natural point of political and legislative work before the next contention and curiosity. While its crisis may help evolve the state’s ability decisions are communicated, how those to convene powerful fora aligned with the decisions are arrived at, has not been relevant administrative arrangements. The established. In such a vacuum, executive strengths of the NCOC must be captured in fiat dominates in the long run. an accurate functional assessment of the
45 Stress Testing Pakistani Federalism - Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic Response
key benefits the structure offered, and then given to it is understood to be directly integrated into all future government policy proportional to the importance attached to and actions that merit national urgency. consensus-building.
6.3 Strengthening the MIPC Constitutionally, the CCI must gather every 90 days. However, it first met six months and Enhancing the CCI into the pandemic and has convened on The current federal ruling political party only one other occasion since. At neither (the PTI) also governs three of the four meeting was the Covid-19 pandemic the provinces. This should have ensured primary focus of the discussion. Prior minimal friction between the centre to the pandemic, a CCI meeting was and provinces during the Covid-19 called in December 2019, a full year after pandemic response. However, even its previous assembly. The lack of CCI with only one province (Sindh) being meetings through the pandemic and it governed by a different party (PPP), a being bypassed for decision-making has system-wide disarray seemed to define been noted by political observers. Many are the initial response. Political contestation concerned that the MIPC and the CCI, both is a normal and healthy component of risk being made defunct if key decisions democratic, and especially federal systems. are made absent their engagement. The administrative and institutional The creation of a dedicated coordination mechanisms that are designed to body for pandemic response may ensure equity, inclusion, ownership and signal a clarity of purpose and singular coordination between the centre and the commitment to the issue, however, it provinces must, therefore, be pursued and also signals a collective disinclination adhered to with great rigour. of institutions, governing politicians During the Covid-19 response, the NCOC and key bureaucrats to utilise existing was an extremely effective decision- administrative and normative tools — making body for coordination, data and instead choosing the path of capacity insights. However, it was not a product of substitution and institutional bypass. the existing administrative or institutional Lesson: Process and due diligence matter. mechanisms for centre-province and/or The primary federal body, the MIPC, was province-province issues. The CCI is the excluded in the formation of the NCOC, very apex of the federalism platform in and the apex statutory forum, the CCI, has Pakistan, with a specific constitutional remained relatively dormant since before mandate to enhance inter-provincial the Covid-19 pandemic. This represents an harmony and coordinate on matters that object lesson in the importance of frequent, impact all federating units. Since 1973, regular and robust procedural due diligence and particularly since 2010, the weightage
46 Conclusions and Lessons
and constitutional adherence. For federalist implementation must be shouldered principles to persevere, the CCI must be by provincial governments — with the strengthened and given due importance for federal government providing oversight, it to remain catalytic in times of governance facilitation, guidance and back-up disquiet and standoffs. Equally, or perhaps financing where required. The likelihood even more importantly, the existence and that local governance can be managed by role of the MIPC – which is where a body like individual superstar executives assumes the NCOC should have been conceived and that every bureaucrat has the same housed – must be revisited. capacity and willingness to work as the most famed and prominent ones. 6.4 Urgent Need to Bridge the Lesson: Absent serious investments in Local Governance Gap representative local government, with The delivery of basic public services adequate powers over core local functions is indisputably connected to the and the ability to raise and spend their own empowerment of local governments, and revenue, the next crisis will also exact the their institutionalisation is an urgent, same heavy cost on district administrators critical requirement across all of Pakistan. that the Covid-19 pandemic has. Weak local governance hollows out the spirit The absence or frailty of local and effectiveness of a federal system, and governments created a vacuum acutely incentivises increased centralisation of felt during the Covid-19 response, power. requiring the executive branch to step in instead of public representatives. It falls 6.5 Understanding Power on the provinces to speed up the process of Effective Delivery of devolving powers to districts, towns/ Mechanisms tehsils, union councils, village councils, neighbourhood councils and panchayats The efficacy of crisis response depends, — with the same vigour with which to a large degree, on pre-existing they have demanded decentralisation institutional arrangements. It is far for themselves. Pakistan must take this easier to reorient present systems to opportunity to rapidly develop a local respond to disasters rather than to government system as the first line of create new ones from scratch. The BISP defence against any such future crises. and NSER database for instance, could be deployed for cash transfers almost There is near unanimous support for immediately. The Integrated Disease deepening devolution in manifestos of all Information Management System (IDIMS) political parties. Extending the principle of created for polio has been improvised decentralisation to the Covid-19 response,
47 Stress Testing Pakistani Federalism - Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic Response
for high-level data analytics for Covid-19. Lesson: Ultimately, in a crisis, all political NDMA’s streamlined purchase and supply differences are suspended so that the lines were steered for pandemic relief. system can focus on getting things done. No In the absence of local governments, greater proof than the NCOC is needed that the DC system was enabled as ground- Pakistan’s many run-of-the-mill crises all level responders. The existence of these require the political, military and economic institutions enabled a quick response elites to be prompted to come together and illustrates the need for investing in for a response. When push came to shove, institution-building and outreach systems, Pakistan’s federal system was able to respond as well as for mining improvisation to the crisis. This means that federalism has capacities. the latent power to tackle much more than it does and is a system that must be invested in Lesson: Building long-term, durable accordingly. and effective organisations in the public sector, through legislation that protects 6.7 Public Trust and Need for the structures from the temporal whims of Reliable Communications politics and public discourse, is at the heart of state resilience and capacity. Effective Governments cannot function effectively public sector organisations like BISP and the during crises without public trust. Ehsaas programme reinforce and strengthen Crises will not enable trust in the face of federalist coherence. prevailing distrust; therefore, honest and coherent communication is critical. People 6.6 Politics Matters: Conflict & have access to many, often contradictory, Consensus sources of information. Government authorities should present a clear, sincere Existing issues intensify during crises. source of guidance and when there are Countering the assumption that people low levels of information, it is better to are able to put their conflicts aside and openly acknowledge it rather than giving work collectively for the greater good, incorrect, conflicting information to it has been evident that the inverse can appease the public. also occur. Crises are also the least likely time for redress of entrenched grievances. Lesson: Routine political contestations must Prior conflicts can shape and determine not be allowed to supersede core federalist current responses, hence, all investments principles. Communication channels require for addressing festering issues through strengthening to ensure individual or party consensus-building in times of relative posturing does not derail governance. normalcy can yield substantial benefits during crises.
48 List of Formal Annex 1 Annex Interviews Conducted
¡ Dr. Zafar Mirza, Former Special ¡ Taimur Jhagra, Minister for Assistant to the Prime Minister Finance, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on Health ¡ Nargis Sethi, Chairperson, Pay ¡ Fasi Zaka, Political Commentator and Pension Commission ¡ Colonel Muhammad Shafiq ¡ Rafiullah Kakar, Director, Malik, Assistant Director Strategic Planning and Reforms Domestic Media, ISPR Cell, Govt. of Balochistan
¡ Dr. Kaiser Bengali, Economist ¡ Lieutenant General (retired) and Analyst Khalid Naeem Lodhi, Former Defence Secretary and Interim ¡ Asad Sayeed, Economist and Member, 10th National Financial Minister of Defence Commission ¡ Asad Umar, Federal Minister for Planning and Chairman NCOC ¡ Sanaullah Baloch, Member, Provincial Assembly of ¡ Shandana Gulzar Khan, Member, Balochistan National Assembly of Pakistan
¡ Zamir Ghumro, Barrister ¡ Syma Nadeem, Parliamentary Secretary, Inter Provincial ¡ Dr. Aisha Ghaus Pasha, Economist and Member, National Coordination Division Assembly of Pakistan ¡ Sajid Turi, Member, National Assembly of Pakistan ¡ Haris Gazdar, Researcher, Collective for Social Science ¡ Afrasiab Khattak, Political Research Activist and former Senator
¡ Nauman Wazir Khattak, Member, ¡ Ahsan Iqbal, Member, National Senate of Pakistan Assembly of Pakistan and former Minister for Interior
49 ¡ Mushtaq Ahmad Khan, Member, Senate of Pakistan
¡ Shahnaz Wazir Ali, President SZABIST and former Member of National Assembly
¡ Dr. Miftah Ismail, Former Federal Minister for Finance
¡ Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, Former Prime Minister of Pakistan
¡ Fawad Chaudhry, Minister for Science and Technology
¡ Dr. Nafisa Shah, Member, National Assembly of Pakistan
¡ Faisal Subzwari, Former Leader of the Opposition in the Sindh Assembly
50 Endnotes International. https://www.thenews. 1 Wasim, A. (2020, Mar 26). “PM Imran com.pk/print/671744-centre-allocates- ready to get input of parties to fight rs14-18bn-to-run-three-karachi- Covid-19”. Dawn. https://www.dawn. hospitals com/news/1543804 8 Tunio, H. (2019, Jun 16). “Despite 2 The News International. (2020, May Centre’s takeover, Sindh allocates 16). “PPP says Imran has failed as Rs15b for JPMC, NICVD, NICH”. The PM”. https://www.thenews.com.pk/ Express Tribune. https://tribune.com.
Endnotes print/659424-ppp-says-imran-has- pk/story/1993475/sindh-govt-allocates- failed-as-pm rs15b-jpmc-nicvd-nich
3 Dawn. (2020, May 12). “’Who is running 9 “Expanded Programme on the country?’: Sherry blasts PM for Immunization,” Government of absence from Senate session on Pakistan. http://www.epi.gov.pk/ Covid-19”. https://www.dawn.com/ news/1556570 10 Javid, H., Ali, S. M. & Javed, U. (2020, Apr 3). “Factional Federalism, State 4 Brohi, N. (2020, Aug). “Changed by Capacity, and Fiscal Constraints: a Virus? The Medium and Long- Pakistan’s COVID-19 Challenges”. range Impact of the Corona Crises in LSE Blogs. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/ Pakistan”. Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, p. southasia/2020/04/03/factional- 34. http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/ federalism-state-capacity-and-fiscal- pakistan/16577.pdf constraints-pakistans-covid-19- challenges/ 5 Khan, K. (2019, Jul 6). “Federal govt decides not to take control of three 11 Rozell, M. J. & Wicox C. (2020). major Karachi hospitals”. Geo News. “Federalism in a Time of Plague: https://www.geo.tv/latest/242373- How Federal Systems Cope with federal-government-to-return- Pandemic”. American Review of Public ownership-of-three-major-karachi- Administration, vol. 50(6-7), p. 519-525. hospitals-to-sindh https://journals.sagepub.com
6 Bhatti, M. W. (2019, Jul 6). “Federal 12 UNDP. (2020, Jun 18). “UNDP Pakistan’s govt decides to return control of three Covid-19 Pakistan’s Socio Economic Karachi hospitals to Sindh govt”. The Impact Assessment and Response Plan”. News International. https://www. https://www.undp.org/content/undp/ thenews.com.pk/latest/494627-federal- en/home/news-centre/news/2020/ govt-decides-to-return-control-of- Pakistan_pandemic_could_push_ three-karachi-hospitals-to-sindh-govt millions_into_poverty.html
7 Bhatti, M. W. (2020, Jun 13). 13 Prime Minister’s Office. (2020, Mar “Centre allocates Rs14.18bn to run 13). “PM chaired the National Security three Karachi hospitals”. The News Committee meeting, especially called
51 Stress Testing Pakistani Federalism - Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic Response
to review the current status of and Pakistan’s 23 Wasim, A. (2020, Apr 9). “Parliamentary panel response to the Coronavirus”. https://pmo.gov.pk/ seeks to oversee NDMA’s activities”. Dawn. news_details.php?news_id=1066 https://www.dawn.com/news/1547698
14 Raza, S.I. (2020, May 14). “Transparency ensured 24 Geo News. (2020, Nov 25). “Opposition skips in procurement of PPE: NDMA Chief”. Dawn. parliamentary committee on coronavirus”. https:// https://www.dawn.com/news/1556932 www.geo.tv/latest/320463
15 The Nation. (2020, Dec 15). “Govt appoints Lt Gen 25 ReliefWeb. (2019, Sep 18). “The behind-the- Akhtar Nawaz as NDMA chief”. https://nation. scene heroes against Polio in Pakistan”. https:// com.pk/15-Dec-2020/govt-appoints-lt-gen- reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/behind-scene- akhtar-nawaz-as-ndma-chief heroes-against-polio-pakistan
16 Dawn. (2020, Mar 24). “Aiming to acquire 26 Government of Pakistan. (2021). “Pakistan Cases 10,000 ventilators to increase Pakistan’s Details”. https://covid.gov.pk/stats/pakistan capacity, says NDMA chairperson”. https:// 27 The News International. (2020, Jun 20). “Covid-19 www.dawn.com/news/1543410 deaths, patients grossly under-reported in 17 Tabadlab. (2021). “Virus by the Numbers,” https:// Pakistan”. https://www.thenews.com.pk/ www.tabadlab.com/covid-19-response-data/ print/675167
18 Ahmed, Z. (2013, Jun). “Disaster risks and disaster 28 Husain, F. (2020, Jul 11). “Command & Control management policies and practices in Pakistan: Governance”. Dawn. https://www.dawn.com/ A critical analysis of Disaster Management news/1568272 Act 2010 of Pakistan”. International Journal of 29 The NDMA was created via a presidential Disaster Risk Reduction, vol. 4, p. 15-20. https:// ordinance in 2006, however, after the 2010 www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/ floods was converted into a permanent authority S2212420913000186 through an act of Parliament.
19 Dawn. (2020, May 12). “PTI seeks audit of funds 30 Gul, S. (2020 May 28). “How our government’s released by Sindh govt to fight Covid-19”. https:// communication on Covid-19 has done more www.dawn.com/news/1556394 harm than good”. Dawn. https://www.dawn.com/ 20 Public Procurement Regulatory Authority. (2004, news/1559699 Jun 9). “Public Procurement Rules 2004”. https:// 31 Rehmat, A. (2020, Apr 19). “Muddled Messaging”. www.ppra.org.pk/Rules.asp The News International. https://www.thenews. 21 Government of Sindh. (2021). “Coronavirus com.pk/tns/detail/645714-muddled-messaging Emergency Fund”. https://fd.sindh.gov.pk/covid-19 32 International Crisis Group. (2020, Aug 6). 22 National Assembly of Pakistan. (2020, Mar 26). “Pakistan’s COVID-19 Crisis”. https://www. “Secretariat Notification”. http://www.na.gov.pk/ crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/pakistan/b162- uploads/1585996862_227.pdf pakistans-covid-19-crisis
52 Endnotes
33 Chaudhry, A. (2020, Apr 8). “Tableeghi Jamaat in en_2016-03-10.pdf hot water in Pakistan too for Covid-19 spread”. Dawn. https://www.dawn.com/news/1547354 43 Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. (2021). “Local Government, Elections and Rural 34 Bilal, R. (2020, Oct 28). “‘Can’t fight God’s will’: CII Development Department”. asked govt not to use anti-Covid tag line, Lahore High Court told”. Dawn. https://www.dawn.com/ 44 Shah, W. A. (2019, Sep 30). “View from the news/1587470 Courtroom: Amendments in LG law still face legal challenges”. Dawn. https://www.dawn.com/ 35 The News International. (2020, Jun 22). “55% news/1508099 Pakistanis believe threat of coronavirus is exaggerated: survey”. https://www.thenews.com. 45 Rana, A. & Malik, N. (2019, Aug 20). “The History pk/print/676087 of Local Governance in Pakistan: What lessons to learn?”. Journal of International Politics, vol. 36 The News International. (2020, Dec 9). “COVID 1 (3), p. 26-35. https://minerva-access.unimelb. vaccine drive needs antidote to conspiracy edu.au/bitstream/handle/11343/227163/The%20 theories”. https://www.thenews.com.pk/ Histor%20of%20Local%20Governance%20in%20 print/756039 Pakistan.pdf
37 Gallup Pakistan. (2021, Feb 24). “Gallup Poll”. 46 Smoke, P. (2015, Oct). “Decentralization in https://gallup.com.pk/68-pakistanis-consider-a- Pakistan”. The European Union’s ADM Multi doctors-advice-most-trustworthy-with-regards- Programme. https://webcache.googleusercontent. toinformation-on-coronavirus-only-5-say- com/search?q=cache:MidFlPyRdxAJ:https:// politicians/ europa.eu/capacity4dev/file/29019/ 38 Brohi, N. (2020, Aug). “Changed by a Virus? The download%3Ftoken%3D-Xa9s7e7+&cd=1&hl=en& Medium and Long-range Impact of the Corona ct=clnk&gl=om Crises in Pakistan”. Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, 47 Khan, I. A. (2020, Oct 4). “ECP in legal quandary p. 34. http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/ pakistan/16577.pdf over holding of local govt polls”. Dawn. https:// www.dawn.com/news/1583178 39 Ibid. 48 Dawn. (2018, Jan 19). “AJK govt fails to give final 40 Ahmad, B. (2020, Jul 12). “Learning Loss”. The date for LB elections in court”. https://www.dawn. News International. https://www.thenews.com. com/news/1383872 pk/print/685344 49 Khan, S. (2020, Jan 18). “PTI wants to revamp 41 PILDAT. (2019, Mar). “Comparative Analysis of Sindh’s local government system”. SAMAA. Local Government Laws in Pakistan”. https:// https://www.samaa.tv/news/2020/01/pti-wants- pildat.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/ to-revamp-sindhs-local-government-system/ ComparativeAnalysisof LocalGovernmentLawsin Pakistan.pdf 50 The Nation. (2020, Jul 18). “SC to listen PTI offer 42 Democracy Reporting International. (2016, Jan). against Sindh Local Government Act”. The Nation. “Sindh Local Government Elections Assessment”. https://nation.com.pk/18-Jul-2020/sc-to-listen- http://democracy-reporting.org/wp-content/ pti-offer-against-sindh-local-government-act uploads/2016/05/dri-pk_eam_si_report_v1_
53 Stress Testing Pakistani Federalism - Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic Response
51 Abbasi, K. (2020, Oct 7). “Islamabad’s first mayor 59 Imran, M. (2016, Dec 20). “DFID lauds BISP announces surprise resignation”. Dawn. https:// performance by giving it overall ‘A’ rating”. The www.dawn.com/news/1583687 News International. https://www.thenews.com.pk/ print/173127 52 Dawn. (2020, Oct 14). “Tigers Unleashed”. https:// www.dawn.com/news/1584954 60 Asian Development Bank. (2020). “Detailed Sector Assessment: BISP and Pakistan’s Social Protection 53 Dawn. (2020, Mar 24). “PM Imran announces Agenda”. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/ financial stimulus package to mitigate economic linked-documents/45233-006-sd-01.pdf fallout from Covid-19 outbreak”. https://www. dawn.com/news/1543411 61 The IMF detailed the means of assuring BISP allocations remained intact through the paring of 54 Poverty Alleviation and Social Safety Division, government expenditure: BISP was moved from Government of Pakistan. (2020). “Ehsaas the ‘Other Development Expenditure’ category Emergency Cash”. https://www.pass.gov.pk/ to ‘Current Expenditure’ in the FY 2019–2020 Detailf90ce1f7-083a-4d85-b3e8-60f75ba0d788 budget 55 Government of Pakistan. (2020, Oct). “Ehsaas 62 Asian Development Bank. (2020). “Detailed Sector Emergency Cash: A digital solution to protect Assessment: BISP and Pakistan’s Social Protection the vulnerable in Pakistan during the COVID-19 Agenda”, Section 1.1.2. https://www.adb.org/sites/ crisis”, pg. 19. https://www.pass.gov.pk/userfiles1/ default/files/linked-documents/45233-006-sd-01. files/Ehsaas%20Emergency%20Cash%20 pdf Report_17dec2020.pdf 63 Government of Pakistan. (2020, Oct). “Ehsaas 56 Finance Division, Government of Pakistan. (2019, Emergency Cash: A digital solution to protect Jun 11). “Budget in Brief”, pg. 33. https://www.pass. the vulnerable in Pakistan during the COVID-19 gov.pk/userfiles1/files/Ehsaas%20Emergency%20 crisis”, pg. 9. https://www.pass.gov.pk/userfiles1/ Cash%20Report_17dec2020.pdf files/Ehsaas%20Emergency%20Cash%20 57 Government of Pakistan. (2020, Oct). “Ehsaas Report_17dec2020.pdf Emergency Cash: A digital solution to protect 64 with a Proxy Means Test (PMT) score of the vulnerable in Pakistan during the COVID-19 0-16.17/100 in the NSER crisis”, pg. 19. https://www.pass.gov.pk/userfiles1/ files/Ehsaas%20Emergency%20Cash%20 65 within the PMT scoring band of 16.18 to 38 in the Report_17dec2020.pdf NSER
58 Sayeed, A. (2004, Feb). “Social Protection in 66 Government of Pakistan. (2020, Oct). “Ehsaas Pakistan: Concept, Situation Analysis and the Way Emergency Cash: A digital solution to protect Forward”. Collective for Social Science Research. the vulnerable in Pakistan during the COVID-19 http://www.researchcollective.org/Documents/ crisis”. https://www.pass.gov.pk/userfiles1/ Social_Protection_Way_Forward.pdf files/Ehsaas%20Emergency%20Cash%20 Report_17dec2020.pdf
54