The England & Wales Wildfire Forum (EWWF) and the Scottish Wildfire Forum (SWF) – Written evidence (RSK0039)

Introduction

The Wildfire Forums represent a wide range of public, private and third-sector stakeholders and have strong links to the international wildfire community. The Forums address all issues associated with wildfire in all parts of the UK. Northern Ireland does not have a wildfire forum but representatives contributes to both the EWWF and SWF; the biennial UK wildfire conference is due to be held in Belfast in November 2021.

The websites of both forums1 provide more specific details about membership, the terms of reference and the issues they are dealing with.

The 12 questions posed by the Call for Evidence are addressed below from a wildfire risk perspective.

Summary

This document has attracted input from a range of wildfire specialists across the UK, and this demonstrates the enthusiasm for the issues associated with wildfire. As a result, the length of the document has increased to cover a range of important issues, and as it covers more than six pages, as requested, a short summary is provided of the key issues.

1 The wildfire threat should be taken more seriously. Wildfire has the potential to have a high impact on people in urban areas as well as habitats in remote rural areas. An overall wildfire strategy is required that will fully integrate wildfire into land management and resilience planning.

2 Planning and preparation to mitigate the wildfire threat, including the preparation of wildfire risk assessments and response plans, must take place in advance of high wildfire risk periods. A reactive approach is not adequate.

3 Better coordination between government departments, particularly in England, is required and this must provide better integration of wildfire into the national risk assessment process.

4 More wildfire research is required to increase the evidence base to support long-term planning and short-term operational response. A fire danger rating system is required and data should be collected to allow the overall cost of wildfire incidents to be assessed; this should include the value of environmental and health impacts.

1 England & Wales Wildfire Forum: https://www.northumberland.gov.uk/Fire/Wildfire.aspx Scottish Wildfire Forum – draft website: https://www.scottishwildfireforum.co.uk

1 Response to Questions

1 What are the most significant extreme risks that the UK faces? Are these kinds of risks discrete, linked or systemic? What do you understand the term ‘extreme risk’ to mean?

1.1 Wildfire must be considered as a significant risk in the UK.

1.1.1 In England alone, it is estimated that approximately 45,000 hectares of land has been burnt over ten years (2009/10 to 2018/19)2. 1.1.2 In the last three years, many of the wildfires became major incidents. For example, the wildfires at: Saddleworth Moor (Greater Manchester) and Winter Hill (Lancashire), in 2018; Pauls Hill Windfarm (Morayshire), in 2019; and Wareham Forest (Dorset) and Chobham Common (Surrey), in 2020.

1.2 Wildfire can have a significant, and possibly an extreme, impact on human health (smoke reducing air quality), the economy (business interruption), the environment (loss of habitat, loss of carbon storage and carbon emissions) and critical infrastructure (direct impact on cables, aerials, powerlines, gas mains, water supplies).

1.3 The risk from wildfire can be discrete but often several, or many, wildfires occur at the same time. The conditions required for wildfire to occur often cover a wide area of the UK at the same time, and in extreme cases the same conditions can cover the whole of the UK (as in Spring 2011). If the Fire and Rescue Services (FRS) are called on to fight a large number of wildfires across the country, at the same time, this has a severe impact on their ability to respond to other incidents.

1.4 Extreme risk from wildfire occurs when fire intensity (kW/m of the fireline) grows higher than the “threshold of control”.

1.4.1 This happens most frequently under the same conditions that support multiple wildfires occurring over wide areas. 1.4.2 In many parts of the UK uplands, increasing fuel loads are creating the potential for landscape scale, very high fire intensity, extreme risk wildfires. 1.4.3 In other countries, wildfires of this nature are known to cause multiple fatalities, along with massive property and environmental losses. This situation will only get worse with the combination of increasing fuel loads and climate change.

2 Forestry Commission England Wildfire Statistics for England: https://bit.ly/3a7EiUN

2 2 Are there types of risks to which the UK is particularly vulnerable or for which it is poorly prepared? What are the reasons for this?

2.1 The wildfire risk will be increased by climate change and is forecast to increase by 30% to 50% by 2080 compared to 1980s3. Changing land use patterns are also a factor.

2.2 Historically, the wildfire threat has been perceived as low and a reactive approach has been sufficient. In the face of the increasing threat, resilience planning for preparedness and prevention of wildfire must be improved. This applies beyond the FRS to all who have an involvement with the management of the land.

2.3 In England, there is no national wildfire strategy.

2.3.1 The EWWF has made recommendations that a strategy be developed to The Home Office, which has been the Lead Government Department for Severe Wildfire, since 2016. 2.3.2 Without a national overview of the wildfire risk, set out in a wildfire strategy, there is a danger that the impact of Severe Wildfire will be undervalued in future reviews of the National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA). 2.3.3 Severe Wildfire (H58) entered the National Risk Register in 20134. 2.3.4 In 2019, Severe Wildfire in the NSRA was made a sub- variation of Major Fire and not linked to Natural and Environment Hazards with which there is a strong interdependency (e.g. heatwaves and drought hazards).

2.4 The response capability from the Fire and Rescue Services has improved significantly in the last 15 years, however engagement and interoperability with the forestry and land management sector is limited to local agreements and arrangements. Greater engagement and encouragement to establish interoperability at a national level would help to improve wildfire risk mitigation and wildfire prevention.

3 How could the Government’s approach to risk assessment be strengthened to ensure that it is rigorous, wide-ranging and consistent? Your answer could refer to any aspect of the risk assessment process including, for example, its governance, the evidence base, or the degree to which it is open to scrutiny and the input of experts.

3.1 It should be noted that in the UK policies related to fire and land use are devolved matters.

3.2 In Scotland, wildfire has been placed on the Scottish Risk Register after input from independent wildfire experts and the Scottish Fire

3 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 Evidence Report: https://bit.ly/2KTacf9 4 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rstb.2015.0341

3 and Rescue Service, with review by Scottish Government resilience officers and stakeholders in the Scottish Wildfire Forum.

3.3 In England, improvements should start at government department level. The EWWF has recommended that better coordination is required between: The Home Office (Lead Government Department for Severe Wildfire, with responsibility for the Fire and Rescue Services), Defra (forestry and open habitat regulation, incentives and management) and Cabinet Office (resilience and communities)5. Due to the simpler government structure in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, these problems do not occur.

3.4 The risk assessment approach at the national level should be integrated and coordinated between Home Office, Defra, Cabinet Office and other relevant government departments (to address infrastructure, property and transport risks).

3.5 At the local level, single or multiple Fire and Rescue Services, depending on the landscape scale, should undertake risk assessment with land managers, forestry and open habitat departments and agencies.

3.6 The EWWF assisted with the development of the risk assessment guidance issued by the Uplands Management Group in June 2019 “Moorland Wildfire Risk Assessment and Management Planning”6, which was based on the guidance published by Forestry Commission (FC) in 2014 “Building Wildfire Resilience in Forest Management Planning”7. Both approaches are not yet connected to wider resilience planning.

3.7 It should be noted that the risk assessment approach can be applied to all types of land in the UK, not just moorland and forestry, and it should be adopted for land management planning and wildfire prevention by all authorities and agencies.

3.8 To allow improvements to be made to operational planning and provide accurate statistics to aid strategic decision making, better evidence is required to support improvements to wildfire prevention, planning and response.

3.8.1 Two research projects are currently developing the research base for tailored fire danger rating systems in the UK8.

5 See section 4 of the Wildfire Statement submitted to the Home Office and Defra in May 2020: https://bit.ly/2Y0dIHE 6 Moorland Wildfire Risk Assessment and Management Planning https://bit.ly/36f65l6 7 https://www.forestresearch.gov.uk/research/building-wildfire-resilience-into-forest- management-planning/ 8 University of Manchester led ‘Toward a UK Fire Danger Rating System’ (www.ukfdrs.com) [funded by NERC] and James Hutton Institute led ‘Scottish Fire Danger Rating System’ (https://www.scottishfiredangerratingsystem.co.uk/) [funded by Scottish government]

4 3.8.2 Other wildfire-related research is being carried out by the Universities of Edinburgh, Manchester, Birmingham, Swansea, London and Exeter, and the James Hutton Institute in Scotland. 3.8.3 At present, wildfire statistics are only analysed by FC and the coverage is limited to England9.

3.9 The National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA) has several weaknesses that were set out in Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology (POST). 2019. POSTbrief 31: Evaluating UK natural hazards: the national risk assessment”10

3.9.1 Risk Assessment in NSRA. Wildfire risks are assessed by unstructured expert consultation in NRA (NSRA) rather than using a more integrated approach. 3.9.2 Multiple Hazards, either direct or indirect. Wildfire has links to other NSRA hazards, which can significantly increase impacts. This should be recognised in the assessment of risk. Examples of hazards are:  Direct hazards: heatwave, high spring and summer temperatures, strong winds, or  Indirect: severe wildfires during the COVID-19 pandemic in spring and summer 2020 causing capacity issues to Fire and Rescue Services. 3.9.3 Comparing risk. Wildfire and other under-represented risks, identified in the Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA), are not effectively addressed by the NSRA; Risk Assessment Steering Group, Expert Challenge Groups, Government Chief Scientific Advisors network etc. 3.9.4 Addressing Long-term trends.  The NSRA has a short-term vision, which severely restricts the ability to address risks that develop over a longer-term.  Climate Change adaptation risks are independently and separately covered in CCRA.  CCRA and NSRA risks are not integrated, so the movement from short-term to long-term, in terms of preparedness and prevention, is severely restricted or not valued at the national level.  This may in turn also be responsible for restricting preparedness at local level.  This is a critical weakness given the medium to long term planning required for land management activities, including forestry. 3.9.5 Planning in NSRA.  Short-term planning is not suitable for adaptation timescales.  Long-term risk, such as wildfire, will only be addressed once they reach a ‘cliff edge’, when it is too late for

9 Forestry Commission England Wildfire Statistics for England: https://bit.ly/3a7EiUN 10 https://post.parliament.uk/research-briefings/post-pb-0031/

5 mitigation or adaptation measures to have a corrective effect.  The cross-cutting nature of wildfire means the NRSA restricts the provision of guidance for agri-environment grant schemes.

3.10 Valuing Natural Capital and the Environment

3.10.1Natural Capital11 services, such as: carbon capture and storage, agricultural biomass (crops and grass), air pollution removal, urban cooling, timber, water abstraction and recreation, are critical to the provision of basic human raw materials. However, the value provided by these services, which has been estimated at nearly £1Tn, is not taken into account within the NSRA. Wildfire can and has had significant negative effects on all these services and this can result in a weakening of future resilience. 3.10.2The present approach to addressing environmental impact within the NRSA is extremely limited and therefore significantly restricts the value given to wildfire impact or damage. This reduces the emphasis that should be placed on prevention activities. 3.10.3Including both of these environmental values in the NRSA will be critical to incorporating wildfire resilience in the future England Peatland Strategy and England Tree Planting Programme.

4 Given the range of possible national risks, and the need to achieve a balance between efficiency and resilience, what level of assurance should the Government be seeking on the UK’s resilience to hazards? What would effective national risk management achieve, and how could its success be measured?

4.1 Effective fire prevention and risk management would reduce the risk of damage from wildfire to the issues identified at 1.2. A measuring of success could be the area of land having a wildfire risk assessment in place and/or the number of fires started accidentally by members of the public.

4.2 If the risks associated with wildfire are not reduced, it will jeopardise the achievement of the government targets set out in the 25 Year Environment Plan for England and the UK Net Zero initiative for carbon emissions.

5 How can the Government ensure that it identifies and considers as wide a range of risks as possible? What risks does the inclusion criteria for the National Security Risk Assessment exclude and what effect does this have on long-term resilience?

11 UK Natural Capital Accounts 2019: https://bit.ly/3iSzC9c

6 5.1 As a result of the impact across a large and diverse number of sectors, wildfire should be reinstated as a separate risk on the National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA). Currently, wildfire is listed incorrectly, as sub-variation of Major Fire 12. Also see para: 2.4.4.

5.2 The criteria are set largely for urban areas, but the risks of wildfire occur largely in rural areas. The nature of the ecosystem services and capital assets in rural areas, for example clean drinking water and windfarms, do not feature in the criteria.

6 How effectively do current ways of characterising risks (for example, the use of a five-point scoring system of a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’) support evidence-based policy decisions? What other information would be useful?

6.1 The Wildfire Risk Assessment approach, referred to in para 3.6 above, should be more widely adapted and applied. This approach has received wide support but it needs to be more widely promoted to become a standard part of land management planning.

6.2 More effort should be applied to collecting and collating all types of wildfire data. Some additional resource is required to allow this to happen so that real-time information is available to coordinate the response to wildfire incidents, and to allow evidenced-based strategic decision making to take place in advance of a wildfire risk period.

7 How effectively do Departments mitigate risks? Does the Risk Assessment process and the Civil Contingencies Secretariat adequately support Government departments to address risks within their remits? Is further oversight or accountability required, and if so, what form should that take?

7.1 In England, there is a need for better coordination between the relevant Government departments – see para 3.3.

7.2 The need for planning and preparing for wildfire incidents should be promoted to the national, regional or large landscape scale level and local resilience organisations.

7.3 The regional and local wildfire / fire groups have access to a large amount of specialist knowledge, including experienced land managers. These groups could help with the planning and preparation process, but currently, there are no resources to sustain and promote their resilience work, no formal national coordination and little or no communication taking place.

12 Wildfire is referred to in chapter 4 of The National Risk Register (the public-facing version of the NSRA): https://bit.ly/3sNjkTF

7 8 How well are national contingency plans communicated to and understood by those at a local level, including emergency responders? What could be changed to increase the capability of local responders to effectively plan for and respond to emergencies?

8.1 Replacing severe wildfire as a standalone risk on the NSRA, would raise its profile and provide encouragement for regional and local resilience organisations to consider it as a significant threat. Currently, wildfire risk is not being considered by the resilience organisations.

8.2 Also, this would justify the inclusion of wildfire resilience within the funding options available through agri-environment schemes, in forestry and open habitats.

8.3 The regional and local wildfire / fire groups that exist in some parts of the country have been established in response to local demand; they aim to improve communication between wildfire interests, emergency responders, local land managers and local communities. There are significant benefits from this approach, including the development of best practice, and the wildfire forums seek to expand this network.

9 What is the role of the individual in relation to national crises? Are there potential benefits in increasing public involvement and transparency in emergency planning? What limitations are there to this? What lessons have been learnt or should have been learnt about the approach taken to risk assessment and risk planning in this country from the COVID-19 pandemic?

9.1 Increasing individual and sector engagement with natural hazards, such as wildfires, will be critical in ensuring future resilience. Examples in New Zealand and Australia highlight that the provision of formal structures, and national standards and training, can significantly increase local resilience. These measures can also develop a culture of understanding and knowledge within organisations to ensure long-term resilience is planned, implemented and maintained.

9.2 It is recognised that most wildfires are started by humans (accidentally or on purpose) and therefore public engagement and education are important mechanisms to increase resilience.

9.3 Individual land managers have a role to play in planning for wildfire by applying the risk assessment approach. A ‘when’ not ‘if’ approach should be adopted.

9.4 A clear lesson from the COVID-19 pandemic, is that planning needs to take place for low frequency, high impact events. This is directly relevant to wildfire; in any particular location, the frequency of wildfires may be low, but when a fire does occur, the impact can be significant and highly disruptive to the emergency services and communities.

8 9.5 Planning for wildfire should be incorporated into standard management planning on all land types. Areas of open, agricultural, crofting or common land, community forest and parkland, which can be close to centres of population and critical national infrastructure, are just as at risk from wildfire, as land in remote rural areas.

9.6 Awareness raising and some training of the Government officials who have responsibility for land and wildfire policy is likely to be beneficial.

10 What challenges are there in developing resilience capability? Your answer could refer to critical infrastructure, but also to systems and networks beyond those elements. What is the role of exercising to test risk preparedness, and are these methods utilised effectively in risk assessment and risk planning in this country?

10.1 Over the last 15 years, the profile of the wildfire threat has been raised within the Fire and Rescue Services, the forestry departments and conservation agencies. However, this has occurred without national leadership from government.

10.2 In response to the increasing wildfire threat, more wildfire specialists, planners, researchers and firefighting resources are required.

10.3 Some of the wildfire / fire groups hold cross-sector exercises and the lessons learned from these exercises inform the development of their organisations. Encouragement for exercises of this type in other areas is required.

10.4 Mechanisms to aid the mobilisation of significant resources in the land management sectors, for fire prevention, response and ultimately resilience, would be beneficial.

10.5 Development of a national capability for the deployment of aerial assets, to include funding and a mobilisation strategy, would allow a fast response to wildfire incidents and reduce the risk of damage.

10.6 The design of critical infrastructure (cables, aerials, telecommunication installations, gas mains, powerlines, water supplies) must protect equipment and systems during wildfire incidents.

11 What can be learnt from local or corporate risk management processes, or those of other countries? Are there any specific examples of practices, processes or considerations which could improve the UK’s national risk resilience? How could businesses and civil society more effectively support national resilience preparation?

11.1 The wildfire forums have established strong international links. As a result of the higher risk of damage, in countries such as Portugal, Spain, Greece, Australia and the USA, the UK has much to learn from international collaboration. The long periods of high wildfire

9 risk experienced in Mediterranean countries are predicted to become a feature in the UK more often.

11.2 Some joint training exercises have taken place and the sharing of knowledge has proved to be extremely valuable in developing the UK’s wildfire knowledge and preparation.

11.3 Biennial wildfire conferences, with international contributions, have been held since 2003, and since 2015, these have been run by the Wildfire Forums. The conferences have become an invaluable way for the UK to contribute to the international debate about wildfire and thus identify and work to reduce wildfire risks. The 2019 conference was held in Cardiff13 and a Book of Extracts from the conference is available14.

11.4 The wildfire conferences provide an opportunity to engage with the wildfire support industry and encourage the development of research, new equipment and wildfire fighting techniques.

12 What individual or economic behaviours would strengthen national resilience against hazards, and what mechanisms are open to the Government or society to incentivise these behaviours? How should we prioritise any changes required in approach, process or policy needed to improve risk mitigation and strengthen the UK’s resilience to extreme risks and emergencies?

12.1 Wildfire prevention strategies should be funded by the devolved administrations. Wildfire prevention activities should be eligible for funding through agri-environment schemes or land management contracts.

12.2 It is important to recognise that fires during wildfire incidents can quickly exceed the FRS threshold of control, and that the engagement of the land management sector, before, during and after wildfires is crucial to successful mitigation of this threat.

12.3 Land management planning and prevention measures can help reduce wildfire risk in advance of wildfire incidents and can mitigate and adapt wildfire risk to ensure that wildfires that do occur are maintained within the threshold of control of Fire and Rescue Services.

12.4 There must be an acceptance that some land management for wildfire prevention such as fuel load reduction through prescribed burning under moderate conditions may cause short-term superficial disruption to the environment, but the work can secure long-term resilience and security.

Simon Thorp

13 Programme for the Wildfire Conference 2019: https://bit.ly/3qVtdNu 14 Book of Extracts https://bit.ly/3co6xBD

10 Chairman England & Wales Wildfire Forum

27 January 2021

11