Eicher Motors (EICMOT)

CMP: | 2,700 Target: | 2,970 (10%) Target Period: 12 months HOLD

May 28, 2021 Steady performance, product excitement stands out…

Eicher Motors (EML) reported a steady Q4FY21 performance. Consolidated revenues for Q4FY21 were at | 2,940 crore, up 4% QoQ. ASPs for Royal Particulars Enfield (RE) in Q4FY21 were at ~| 1.43 lakh/unit, up 2.1% QoQ amid sales volumes of ~2.05 lakh units (up 2.5% QoQ). EBITDA for Q4FY21 was at Particular ₹ crore | 634 crore with attendant EBITDA margins at 21.6%, down 219 bps QoQ. Market Capitalization 73,602 Adjusting for one-off impact of ~| 50 crore in other expenses, EBITDA Total Debt (FY21P) 157 margins were at 23.3% (down 50 bps QoQ). Consequent consolidated PAT Cash & Investments (FY21P) 7,806 EV (FY20P) (₹ crore) 65,953 was at | 526 crore. EML’s share of profits from VECV JV was at | 69 crore.

52 week H/L (₹) 3036 / 1,508 Update Result Covid resurgence to elongate demand recovery in 2-W, CV Equity capital ₹ 27.3 Crore Face value ₹ 1 The ongoing pandemic second wave has taken a heavy toll on industry in Price Performance Q1FY22E. However, demand is expected to bounce back strongly once economic activity is allowed to resume with RE volume trajectory over the 3500 20,000 medium term expected to be aided by intact brand pull, continuance of good 2800 15,000 2100 10,000 response to the new Meteor and expansion of distribution footprint both in 1400 and overseas. On the new product development front, the company 700 5,000 has guided for an exciting year up ahead and would continue to introduce a 0 0

new model every quarter. We build 16.5% RE volume CAGR in FY21-23E.

Nov-19 Nov-20

With the domestic CV space having turned a corner in late CY20 and Nov-18

May-19 May-20 May-21 May-18 systemic tailwinds (government’s infra push, pickup in mining and road EML (LHS) Nifty (RHS)

construction activities, introduction of scrappage policy) in place, VECV is

seen continuing to outperform peers with volume CAGR over FY21-23E at Key Highlights 30%. Improving product mix, cost saving initiatives & operating leverage  Q4FY21 revenues up 4% QoQ with benefits are seen leading to 23.4% EBITDA margins in FY23E. 2.1% QoQ rise in ASPs. Adjusted EBITDA margins for the quarter Q4FY21 earnings conference call – highlights & key takeaways were at 23.3%, down 50 bps QoQ EML said (1) underlying demand remains healthy but the combined effect of  Supply chain constraints (domestic supply constraints (localised lockdowns, semiconductor shortage) is seen as well as global) persist amid robust order backlog leading to a soft Q1FY22E with improvement expected from Q2FY22E; (2)

the company would be able to sustain >80,000/month production run rate

Risks to our call Research Equity Retail once supply constraints ease; (3) it has taken 3-8% price hike in CY21, with increase in costs of ~| 12,000/unit at the absolute level having been passed  Higher than anticipated pent up – demand in the domestic market on; (4) for RE, rhodium content is ~30-35% higher than lower cc post state specific unlocking , the price of which has risen ~10x over the past year. However,  Pressure on gross margins amid EML has been able to achieve 66% reduction in rhodium usage via value unabated move in key metal prices engineering initiatives, the benefits of which will flow, going forward; (5) amid calibrated price hikes consolidated other expense run rate, going forward, would be ~| 290 crore/quarter; (6) FY22E will be the best ever year for new model launches; Research Analyst (7) share of online bookings have gone up 5x post lockdown; (8) Meteor Securities ICICI Shashank Kanodia, CFA production has been ramped up to ~15,000 units/month. [email protected]

Valuation & Outlook Jaimin Desai [email protected] For EML, we factor in 19%, 33.1% sales, PAT CAGR, respectively, in FY21- 23E. The company is seen delivering healthy double-digit volume growth in RE along with continued VECV outperformance, with margins undergoing a sedate recovery. We maintain HOLD and value EML at | 2,970 on SOTP basis

(34x FY23E EPS to RE; 25x FY23E EPS to VECV; earlier TP | 3,050). Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21P FY22E FY23E CAGR (FY21P-23E) Net Sales 9,797.1 9,153.6 8,720.4 10,539.1 12,355.4 19.0% EBITDA 2,903.1 2,180.3 1,781.3 2,264.9 2,892.2 27.4% EBITDA Margins (%) 29.6 23.8 20.4 21.5 23.4 Net Profit 2,202.8 1,827.5 1,346.9 1,823.1 2,387.8 33.1% EPS (₹) 80.8 67.0 49.3 66.7 87.4 P/E 33.4 40.3 54.8 40.5 30.9 RoNW (%) 24.8 18.3 11.8 14.3 16.6

RoCE(%) 27.8 17.3 11.3 13.5 15.8

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Result Update | Eicher Motors ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 1: Variance Analysis Q4FY21 Q4FY21E Q4FY20 YoY (%) Q3FY21 QoQ (%) Comments Total Operating Income 2940 2951 2208 33.2 2828 4.0 Topline broadly in line with our estimates Raw Material Expenses 1654 1717 1176 40.6 1565 5.7 Purchase of traded goods 85 59 68 26.5 85 0.2 Employee Expenses 225 234 214 5.5 234 -3.5 Employee costs came in a tad lower than our Other expenses include an one-off amounting to ~| Other expenses 341 293 319 7.2 272 25.4 50 crore for the quarter EBITDA 634 649 432 46.8 672 -5.6 Adjusted EBITDA margins for the quarter was at EBITDA Margin (%) 21.6 22.0 19.6 200 bps 23.8 -219 bps 23.3%, ahead of our estimates of 22% due to lower than anticipated deterioration in gross margins Other Income 114 118 143 -20.4 125 -8.9 Depreciation 125 131 109 14.6 123 1.5 Depreciation was a tad lower than our estimates Interest 4 3 6 -28.8 4 9.4 Total Tax 162 159 142 14.0 169 -4.1 PAT 526 526 304 72.8 533 -1.2 PAT broadly in line with our estimates Key Metrics ASPs at | 1.43 lakh/unit were up 2.1% QoQ vs. our ASP(|) 142,559 143,077 132,864 7.3 139,588 2.1 expectation of 2.5% QoQ increase VECV ASP (| lakhs) 19.8 21.4 18.1 9.6 20.9 -5.3 VECV ASPs for the quarter came in at | 19.8 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 2: Change in estimates FY22E FY23E Comments (| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Marginally revise downward our sales estimates for FY22-23E Revenue 10,978 10,539 -4.0 12,673 12,355 -2.5 tracking Covid resurgence domestically. We expect sales to grow at a CAGR of 19% in FY21-23E EBITDA 2,495 2,265 -9.2 3,047 2,892 -5.1 EBITDA Revise downward our margin estimates tracking steep rise in 22.7 21.5 -124 bps 24.0 23.4 -63 bps Margin (%) key commodity prices primarily metals PAT 1,999 1,823 -8.8 2,569 2,388 -7.1 Downward revision in sales and margin estimates leads to EPS (|) 73 67 -8.8 94 87 -7.1 downward revision in earnings. We expect PAT to grow at a CAGR of 33.1% over FY21-23E Source: ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 3: Assumptions Current Earlier Comments FY19 FY20 FY21P FY22E FY23E FY22E FY23E Royal Enfield Going forward, we expect RE volumes to grow at a 826,098 695,839 612,060 722,054 830,118 753,486 852,641 volumes CAGR of 16.5% over FY21-23E Royal Enfield Revise upward our assumption on ASPs, tracking 117,603 129,465 140,044 144,802 147,658 144,538 147,451 ASP/unit (|) increase in RM costs CV volumes at VECV seen growing at CAGR of VECV volumes 72,860 48,786 41,265 55,727 69,650 51,852 62,222 ~30% over FY21-23E

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2 Result Update | Eicher Motors ICICI Direct Research

Financial story in charts

Exhibit 4: Topline and EBITDA margins trend 14,000 35.0

12,000 29.6 30.0

10,000 25.0 23.8 23.4 21.5 We expect sales to grow at a CAGR of 19% over 8,000 20.4 20.0

crore FY21-23E on the back of 16.5% CAGR in volume

% ₹ 6,000 15.0 growth at RE, during this period. EBITDA margins are seen improving to 23.4% by FY23E 4,000 10.0

2,000 5.0

9,797 9,797 8,720 9,154 9,154

10,539 10,539 12,355 12,355 - - FY19 FY20 FY21P FY22E FY23E Net Sales EBITDA margin RHS)

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 5: PAT & EPS trend 3,000 100 90 87 2,500 81 80 70 2,000 67 67 60 PAT is expected to grow at a CAGR of 33.1% over

crore FY21-23E to | 2,388 crore in FY23E, building in 300 ₹ 1,500 49 50

per per share bps improvement in margins in the aforesaid period

40 ₹ 1,000 30 20 500

10

2,203 2,203 1,347 1,823 2,388 1,828 1,828 - - FY19 FY20 FY21P FY22E FY23E

PAT EPS (RHS)

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 6: Return ratio profile 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0

60.0 Eicher Motors expected to continue to clock healthy % 50.0 return ratios; with RoE-RoCE inching towards ~16-

40.0 87.2 17% mark by FY23E. RoIC is expected to be >50% 27.8 27.8

70.2 70.2 by that time period courtesy high cash & cash

30.0 24.8

55.2 55.2 18.3 18.3

17.3 17.3 equivalents in the B/S as a% of networth

16.6 16.6

15.7 15.7

50.1 50.1

14.3 14.3 13.5 13.5

20.0 11.8

11.3 11.3 36.0 36.0 10.0 - FY19 FY20 FY21P FY22E FY23E RoE RoCE RoIC

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 3 Result Update | Eicher Motors ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 7: Segment-wise, model-wise FY21 volumes at EML Dom estic Exports Total % of sales m ix Dom estic Particulars F Y20 F Y21 YoY % F Y20 F Y21 YoY % F Y20 F Y21 YoY % F Y20 F Y21 MS % Motorcycles 6,56,651 5,73,438 (12.7) 39,188 38,622 (1.4) 6,95,839 6,12,060 (12.0) 100.0 100.0 3.8 250-350 cc 6,14,626 5,49,620 (10.6) 5,305 8,328 57.0 6,19,931 5,57,948 (10.0) 89.1 91.2 B ullet 350 1,30,752 98,008 (25.0) 49 - (100.0) 1,30,801 98,008 (25.1) 18.8 16.0 Bullet E lectra Twinspark 45,545 50,579 11.1 111 39 (64.9) 45,656 50,618 10.9 6.6 8.3 Classic 350 3,98,144 3,61,140 (9.3) 4,800 6,190 29.0 4,02,944 3,67,330 (8.8) 57.9 60.0 Meteor 350 - 39,893 NA - 2,039 NA - 41,932 NA - 6.9 Thunderbird 350 40,185 - (100.0) 345 60 (82.6) 40,530 60 (99.9) 5.8 0.0 350-500 cc 21,837 13,562 (37.9) 14,286 15,954 11.7 36,123 29,516 (18.3) 5.2 4.8 B ullet 500 786 - (100.0) 1,927 303 (84.3) 2,713 303 (88.8) 0.4 0.0 Classic 500 4,925 - (100.0) 4,695 4,113 (12.4) 9,620 4,113 (57.2) 1.4 0.7 Himalayan 15,302 13,562 (11.4) 7,664 11,538 50.5 22,966 25,100 9.3 3.3 4.1 Thunderbird 500 824 - (100.0) - - NA 824 - (100.0) 0.1 - 500-800 cc 20,188 10,256 (49.2) 19,597 14,340 (26.8) 39,785 24,596 (38.2) 5.7 4.0 650 T win 20,188 10,256 (49.2) 19,597 14,340 (26.8) 39,785 24,596 (38.2) 5.7 4.0 A. Total Royal Enfield 6,56,651 5,73,438 (12.7) 39,188 38,622 (1.4) 6,95,839 6,12,060 (12.0) 100.0 100.0 3.8 I. M&HCV 28,789 25,375 (11.9) 3,645 3,521 (3.4) 32,434 28,896 (10.9) 68.1 71.9 II. L CV 14,257 9,788 (31.3) 923 1,504 62.9 15,180 11,292 (25.6) 31.9 28.1 B. Total VECV - Eicher (I + II) 43,046 35,163 (18.3) 4,568 5,025 10.0 47,614 40,188 (15.6) 100.0 100.0 6.2 C. Total VECV - 1,107 1,062 (4.1) - - NA 1,107 1,062 (4.1) 100.0 100.0 0.2 D. Total sales (A + B + C) 7,00,804 6,09,663 (13.0) 43,756 43,647 (0.2) 7,44,560 6,53,310 (12.3)

Source: SIAM, ICICI Direct Research; Note – MS% = market share %

Exhibit 8: SOTP valuation Amount Remarks Two-wheeler business-Royal Enfield FY23E EPS (₹) 82 Target PE multiple(x) 34.0 Valued RE business at 34x P/E Per share value (₹) 2,780 Target market cap (₹ crore) 75,786 CV business-VECV FY23E PAT (₹ crore) 383 Target PE multiple(x) 25.0 Valued VECV business at 25x P/E Target market cap (₹ crore) 9,563 Contribution towards EML 0.54 EML has 54.4% stake in VECV Target market cap towards EML (₹ crore) 5,202 Per share value-VECV Eicher (₹) 190 Total target market cap (₹ crore) 80,988 Per share value (₹ ) 2,970 Source: ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 9: Valuation Summary Net Sales Growth EPS Growth PE EV/EBITDA RoNW RoCE (₹ cr) (%) (₹) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%) FY18 8,965.0 27.5 71.9 17.3 37.6 24.5 29.9 35.3 FY19 9,797.1 9.28 80.8 12.4 33.4 23.4 24.8 27.8 FY20 9,153.6 (6.6) 67.0 (17.0) 40.3 30.7 18.3 17.3 FY21P 8,720.4 (4.7) 49.3 (26.5) 54.8 37.0 11.8 11.3 FY22E 10,539.1 20.9 66.7 35.4 40.5 28.4 14.3 13.5 FY23E 12,355.4 17.2 87.4 31.0 30.9 21.6 16.6 15.8

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 10: Shareholding pattern Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Promoters 49.3 49.3 49.3 49.2 49.2 FII 27.7 27.0 28.2 28.9 29.1 DII 11.1 11.9 9.9 9.4 9.1

Others 11.9 11.8 12.6 12.6 12.7 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 4 Result Update | Eicher Motors ICICI Direct Research

Financial Summary

Exhibit 11: Profit and loss statement | crore Exhibit 12: Cash flow statement | crore (Year-end March) FY20 FY21P FY22E FY23E (Year-end March) FY20 FY21P FY22E FY23E Total operating Income 9,153.6 8,720.4 10,539.1 12,355.4 Profit after Tax 1,827.5 1,346.9 1,823.1 2,388.0 Growth (%) -6.6 -4.7 20.9 17.2 Add: Depreciation 381.5 450.7 500.6 556.0 Raw Material Expenses 4,770.9 4,846.7 6,047.2 7,039.2 (Inc)/dec in Current Assets 64.7 -990.5 157.0 -300.7 Employee Expenses 795.8 843.3 893.6 949.0 Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions -12.5 597.2 78.8 439.5 Other Expenses 1,181.5 983.1 1,093.0 1,193.1 CF from operating activities 1718.0 951.1 2045.9 2491.3 Total Operating Expenditure 6,973.3 6,939.1 8,274.3 9,463.2 (Inc)/dec in Investments -878.1 1,880.8 -1,800.0 -1,800.0 EBITDA 2180.3 1781.3 2264.9 2892.2 (Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets -746.9 -508.7 -450.0 -450.0 Growth (%) -24.9 -18.3 27.2 27.7 Others 700.0 433.2 509.8 587.5 Depreciation 381.5 450.7 500.6 556.0 CF from investing activities -925.0 1805.3 -1740.2 -1662.5 Interest 18.9 16.5 14.8 13.3 Issue/(Buy back) of Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Income 543.3 453.2 513.7 591.4 Inc/(dec) in loan funds -42.3 13.0 -50.0 -10.0 PBT 2,323.2 1,767.3 2,263.1 2,914.3 Dividend paid & dividend tax -410.3 -463.4 -545.2 -681.5 Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Others -355.1 573.7 0.0 0.0 Total Tax 527.4 451.5 570.3 734.4 CF from financing activities -807.7 123.3 -595.2 -691.5 PAT 1827.5 1346.9 1823.1 2388.0 Net Cash flow -14.7 2,879.7 -289.5 137.3 Growth (%) -17.0 -26.3 35.4 31.0 Opening Cash 2,965.2 2,950.5 5,830.2 5,540.7 EPS (₹) 67.0 49.3 66.7 87.4 Closing Cash 2950.5 5830.2 5540.7 5678.0 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 13: Balance Sheet | crore Exhibit 14: Key ratios (Year-end March) FY20 FY21P FY22E FY23E (Year-end March) FY20 FY21P FY22E FY23E Liabilities Per share data (₹) Equity Capital 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 EPS 67.0 49.3 66.7 87.4 Reserve and Surplus 9,953.6 11,410.8 12,688.7 14,395.2 Cash EPS 81.0 65.9 85.2 108.0 Total Shareholders funds 9980.9 11438.1 12716.0 14422.5 BV 366.1 419.6 466.5 529.1 Total Debt 144.4 157.4 107.4 97.4 DPS 12.5 17.0 20.0 25.0 Deferred Tax Liability 252.2 221.5 267.7 313.8 Cash Per Share 249.7 286.4 341.8 412.8 Others 198.1 270.2 274.9 279.6 Operating Ratios (%) Total Liabilities 10575.5 12087.2 13366.1 15113.4 EBITDA Margin 23.8 20.4 21.5 23.4 Assets PBT / Net sales 19.7 15.3 16.7 18.9 Gross Block 3,669.7 4,176.2 4,690.5 5,140.5 PAT Margin 20.0 15.4 17.3 19.3 Less: Acc Depreciation 1,292.2 1,742.9 2,243.5 2,799.5 Inventory days 22.8 36.6 30.0 30.0 Net Block 2377.5 2433.3 2447.0 2341.0 Debtor days 3.5 6.6 5.0 5.0 Capital WIP 312.2 314.3 250.0 250.0 Creditor days 40.2 64.3 50.0 50.0 Total Fixed Assets 2,689.7 2,747.6 2,697.0 2,591.0 Return Ratios (%) Investments 5,748.8 3,902.2 5,752.2 7,602.2 RoE 18.3 11.8 14.3 16.6 Inventory 572.4 874.6 866.2 1,015.5 RoCE 17.3 11.3 13.5 15.7 Debtors 86.8 158.2 144.4 169.3 RoIC 55.2 36.0 50.1 70.2 Others 252.4 869.3 734.4 861.0 Valuation Ratios (x) Cash 2950.5 5830.2 5540.7 5678.0 P/E 40.3 54.6 40.4 30.8 Total Current Assets 3,862.0 7,732.2 7,285.7 7,723.8 EV / EBITDA 30.7 37.0 28.4 21.6 Creditors 1,007.8 1,535.8 1,443.7 1,692.5 EV / Net Sales 7.3 7.6 6.1 5.1 Provisions 73.7 90.2 84.8 99.4 Market Cap / Sales 8.0 8.4 7.0 6.0 Others 792.7 845.4 1021.7 1197.8 Price to Book Value 7.4 6.4 5.8 5.1 Total Current Liabilities 1,874.2 2,471.4 2,550.2 2,989.7 Solvency Ratios Net Current Assets 1987.9 5260.8 4735.5 4734.1 Debt/Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Non current asset 149.2 176.5 181.3 186.0 Current Ratio 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 Application of Funds 10575.5 12087.2 13366.1 15113.4 Quick Ratio 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 5 Result Update | Eicher Motors ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 15: ICICI Direct Research universe (Auto & Auto Ancillary) Sector / Company CMP TP M Cap EPS (₹) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoCE (%) RoE (%) (₹) (₹) Rating (₹ Cr) FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E Apollo Tyre (APOTYR) 225 260 BUY 14,289 5.5 9.9 16.2 40.8 22.8 13.9 6.8 7.0 5.1 7.6 6.1 9.1 6.4 5.3 8.2 (ASHLEY) 125 150 Buy 36,589 -1.7 1.4 4.6 -72.7 89.8 27.5 124.5 25.7 13.9 -3.6 6.1 16.4 -6.9 5.9 17.5 (BAAUTO) 4,220 4,500 BUY 1,22,114 157.4 183.5 210.0 26.8 23.0 20.1 20.3 16.7 14.2 18.2 21.9 25.2 18.1 20.6 23.1 Balkrishna Ind. (BALIND) 2,180 2,250 Buy 42,143 59.8 68.2 80.5 36.5 32.0 27.1 23.9 20.5 17.4 19.3 20.4 21.6 19.2 19.0 19.4 (BHAFOR) 690 670 Hold 32,124 -5.2 11.8 19.1 NM 58.7 36.2 47.5 25.4 18.4 1.2 7.1 11.1 3.7 10.2 14.9 Eicher Motors (EICMOT) 2,700 2,970 Hold 73,602 49.3 66.7 87.4 54.8 40.5 30.9 37.0 28.4 21.6 11.3 13.5 15.8 11.8 14.3 16.6 Escorts (ESCORT) 1,165 1,140 Hold 14,281 71.2 62.0 76.9 16.4 18.8 15.1 10.0 11.5 9.0 18.7 13.8 14.8 16.2 12.6 13.7 (EXIIND) 190 200 Hold 16,150 8.9 9.3 11.0 16.2 15.6 13.1 11.2 10.7 9.2 14.0 13.8 15.1 11.0 10.5 11.5 Hero Moto (HERHON) 3,000 3,440 Buy 59,910 148.4 170.8 196.5 20.2 17.6 15.3 12.9 10.9 9.4 20.8 23.1 24.5 19.5 20.7 21.7 M&M (MAHMAH) 820 1,000 Buy 1,01,942 10.8 36.0 44.8 75.8 22.8 18.3 15.7 14.2 11.5 9.6 9.6 11.4 7.7 11.1 12.5 Maruti (MARUTI) 7,000 6,080 Reduce 2,11,456 140.0 172.9 225.1 50.0 40.5 31.1 31.4 23.4 17.4 4.3 6.6 9.1 8.2 9.5 11.4 Minda Industries (MININD) 570 625 Buy 15,499 5.8 11.6 17.9 97.9 49.0 31.9 23.9 16.6 13.0 8.7 14.2 19.1 8.7 15.9 19.5 Motherson (MOTSUM) 240 225 Hold 75,790 2.5 6.7 8.1 NM 36.0 29.7 17.6 10.2 8.7 6.0 16.3 18.9 7.1 16.1 17.4 (TATMOT) 320 400 Buy 1,15,126 -35.0 17.6 38.3 NM 18.2 8.3 5.1 4.2 2.9 6.4 9.7 14.3 -23.6 10.6 18.8

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 6 Result Update | Eicher Motors ICICI Direct Research

RATING RATIONALE ICICI Direct endeavors to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock

Buy: >15% Hold: -5% to 15%; Reduce: -15% to -5%; Sell: <-15%

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICI Direct Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 [email protected]

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 7 Result Update | Eicher Motors ICICI Direct Research

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets) and Jaimin Desai, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc. as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research.

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co- managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

Since associates of ICICI Securities and ICICI Securities as a entity are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.

ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.

We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 8