ReportNo. 6509-BAR Barbados EconomicMemorandum Public Disclosure Authorized

December16, 1986 LatinAmerica and the CaribbeanRegional Office FOR OFFICIALUSE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized

Documentof the WorldBank

Thisdocument has a restricteddistribution and may be used by recipients onlyin the performanceof theirofficial duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosedwithout World Bank authorization. CURkENCY EQUIVALENTS

Currency Unit: Until November 1973 Eastern Caribbean Dollar (EC$) Since December 1973 : Barbados Dollar (BDSS)

December 1971

USO1.00 - ECA1.975 EC$1.00 US$0.506

Since July 1975

US$1.00 BD$2.OU BOS$1.0U = US$0.50

ABBREVIATIONSAND ACRONYMS

BDB - Barbados Development Bank BIDC - Barbados Industrial Development Corporation BMC - Barbados Marketing Corporation BNB - Barbados National Bank BSIL - Barbados Sugar Industries Limited CARICUM - Caribbean Community CATCO - Caribbean Agricultural TradinLgCompany CBB - Central Bank of Barbados CFC - Caribbean Food Corporation EDF - European Development Fund EEC - European Economic Community FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization IDB - Inter-AmericanDevelopment bank 140FP - Ministry of Finance and Planning USAID - United States Agency for InternationalDevelopment

GOVERNMNTOF BARBADOS FISCAL YEAR

April 1 - March 31 FOROMCIAL USEONLY

TITLE BAkBADOS- ECONOtilICtEiOiANDUM

COUNTRY: BARBADOS

REGION : LATIN AKERICAAND THE CARIBBEAN

SECTOR : COUNTRYECONOMIC

REPORT : TYPE CLASSIF NUMBER LANGUAGES

CEM Restricted 6509-BAR English

PUBDATE : December16, 1986

ABSTRACT : The reportreviews the performanceof Barbados'economy over the past five years-a periodcharacterised by economicstag- nationsince 1980 and risingunemployment owing to external and internalfactors. The reportprese;ts some preliminary views on the new Government'spolicy initiatives to stimulate economicgrowth and it identifiesmacroeconomic as well as sectoralissues that need to be addressedin order to achieve the expectedgrowth performance. Macroeconomic issues and recommendationsrelate to: considerationsof an exchangerate adjustmentto improveinternational competitiveness; and fiscal measuresto raise publicsavings. Sectoralissues and recommendationsfor improvedperformance mainly relateto: marketing,management, finance and labor costs in the key sectors,i.e., tourism,manufacturing and agriculture.The reportalso reviewsthe proposedpublic investment program, its financingrequirements and medium-termprospects for the economy.

This documenthas a restricteddistribution and maybe usedby recipients only in the performance of their offlcialduties Its contentsmay not otheerisebe disclosd withoutWorld Bank authorization. This reportis based on the work of a World bank economuicmission to Marbadosin September196b. The missioncomprised: kiilarianCodippily (IBRD),Chief of Mission,Arturo Vera (IDB);Caroline Doggart (Consultant); and Joan Curry (Consultant). BhR

ucoQIic

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page No. COUNTRYDATA

SUMMARYAND CONCLUSIONS (i) - (v)

I. RECENT ECONOMICPERPORMANCE 1

Introduction 1 Economic Growth 1 Public Sector Finances 3 Money and Credit 4 Prices and Wages 4 Balance of Payments and External Debt 5 Internal and External Balances 6

II. GOVERNMENT POLICY AND MAJOR ISSUES 7

Government Policy 7 Macroeconomic Issues 7 International Competitiveness 7 Fiscal Policy 9 Macroeconomic Data Base 9 Selected Sectoral Issues 10 Tourism 10 Manufacturing 11 Agriculture 14

III. PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENTPROGRAM 15

Progress on Public Investment 15 The Medium-Term Program 15 Financing Public Sector Investment 17 External Financing Requirements 18

IV. MEDIUK-TERSPROSPECTS 19

Economic Outlook 19 Medium-Term Scenarios 19 Balance of Payments Implications 20 Creditworthiness 20

ANNEX I: GOVERNMENT'S PROJECT AND TECHNICALASSISTANCE LISTS 22

STATISTICAL APPENDIX 26

MAP (IBRD 20365) Page t ci 2

COUNTRYOAtA - *ARSAOO6

ARgA POPULATION ett? 431-2 0.233 .IIlo 0 (014-i1s1) sj7 Per Rate t Ofotht 0.3 (from 19711-tO416 pot ke et *tr.*l l1ead

POPULATIONC4ARACttRISTIC6 (1SS51 NIALTit Od4i girth Rete (per 1,000) 16.6 Popelatllepot Pt"et"'la 41963) 1,240.6 Crude 0e0d Rate (per 1.000) 6.4 Paputillee ger Neepitel hi (1163) tie., iaftatMertailty (per 1,000 live birtsa)a/ 5.0

INCO6 Ol4tRIIUTION (1S701 01 1tRISUtiN1Of LAItO OUR6iNIP (1170) S Nfatloal tacome.iltent 0uletilc 44.0 S "ada by Tep 10A1of Beaca 77.0 LoWve Quintile 16.6 S owed* by Sellcat 101 .f oSucr O.S

ACCESSTO PIPCO VATgR(1971) ACCC2STO tI.OTRICITt (19SO) I at Papulatlon- Urban 100.0 S of Papulatlen - Urbe 6.0 -Rral 100.0 * Rerel 90.0

NUItITRIT0(1863) eOUCATION Calorie latekaas S at Raquiarceata 136.0 Adult Literaey Rete S (I171) 02.0 Per ropita Prtalen Ilatae S6.0 Prlacty ftbed Lareilecatt 41163) 110.0

OUPPER CAPITA *196 1,SUSt4. U0

ORCUeNATIONAL PROUCT IN 1961S ANNUALRAt O OROWYN41. ca14tant W4l4c

use Nil. 5 1162-04 1661

aoPat market Prices 1,220.8 100.0 -0.3 0.3 Geoss Ooastlo lavetnsat IS5.S IS.2 -0.6 2.S Brea. 0oretle Savlaga 114.4 1.S .. CurreatAcceeat Wlean 17.2 1.4 -. exparte at Goads. 1PS 72S.? 18.4 7.1 12.5 impartsat Goads. "FS 717.2 S6.7 7.6 14.0

OUTPUT.LA3oR FORCEAlto PROOUCTIVITYIN 11S5 Veto* Added e.ploya.ot V. A. Per Watrbt US$ Nil. S Tb*a4sad s Us a 9

AglcIulture 60.1 7.3 7.6 6.' 10'26""1.6 84adutryan4 1iolagn 137.S 12.1 t2.0 13.0 11,4S2 15.0 Setvle.t $66.6 $0.2 72.3 16.1 12,266 102.2

Total/Average 1104.8 100.0 12.1 100.0 11t16 100.0

4OVERNMENTPINACEU

GeonealOeaerament Ceatral9*avwsemt

(so$0 " .) a *ofogpb 1 (0 aIl.) s af 40/ 111/6 116/*66 1161/6 161/656

Currant ReeIpts 766.0 31.6 641.5 26.4 Current Esponditare 702.4 2S.6 624.6 21.6 Curreat Seuplus 7S.6 3.1 20.1 0.6 Capital Expenditurea 142.7 S.6 142.5 11. Estreafl Aseleteane(not) 39.9 1.6 51.1 1.6

" Atlas matbadalogy. b/ GOP used forea4ld4at loer1965.

.. *ot avaIlable . Nat appliceble 00I1T5 OtAA - SeAsOOS

wNSv,aslott. set allos ttOs ltet Iea tCea 1*t4 tLees rtoil-em oS* 0eouler lt)

Mccoy add suost iMsey 49.s 71.e SA.) 100.s1 161.2 te4s took Credit to tuobilato80m 0.2 t o.B 144.1 @5u.6 t0.e t7.S leek Croilt to Private, 41eo 11.0M 721.1 772.0 5I1.e deli es2

MMp 0 ova$$stN asc Se of O0N 5t.6 5)4 45.1 42.6 42.) 44.0 Oeweer PIces ted.x(Morot. lICOutOOS 1911.8 tt0.6 150.5 II?.? 144.i t55.7 Aecvel borOetoIoo ce let rIis coaetal prie lodes 14 ts.* tO.: s.s s.c s.* Usk credit to Petlit Sector -1. iot.a 42.6 -29.s 26.5 -17.1 le,k Creitt to trivte Sector It. 21. 5.c It.4 2.c 9.1

S1LAlKbl OP PATNUTS ttIC4tMOSIMtX£190T1 (AWIVIg tO114-84

191t 1155 1181 4t us4 Nil. u

aporte of Ocedo, WS 651.6 770.0 725.7 Usa... 2*.9 1. luperto1 40.04s,lips 711.1 710. 117.2 Molaweo 5.0 1.1 -Roecuro.eGP (etoilt * -) *e.5 7.4 45. OttiePrlmery 1.1 1.0 Ron 5.5 1.1 Istoroetcc Pultits. l* -17.1 -15.5 le.f cSeloolt 11.7 4.3 Other teeter Ppsymtes sk0 5.5 4.7 1.s Cleottie 27.5 to.) 4erroa tressfor.(set) 20.7 20.7 10.1 Ileetriecl Ce"apoeak 100.0 $1.2 loleme cs CUre*tAccoet -S1.1 .17.1 -17.2 Ail Other C .od.ltee 20.3 10.6 Total b/ 270.1 100.0 not Public Olobutroreste 59.1 24.1 U6.9 (ore**eOl.eur.omeset (1.1) 140.91 (72.1) (Leertlactie.) (11.o1 (12.) (21.2) 1171XsgKM.01T, 0201551 3si tots oto. capiet -Id St.6 -$.S PtbliteC.tk eel. Ohereto 3S1.1 CeeSge tos eervoe -7.1 10.0 -14.4 1e6a-toreatowdPrivt Dbt.e TkeOl Out.eodig A 0liburswi.

05071t2Svtct RATIO FDA iloss c

Pubile Cebt, liel. cerosktetd 6.0 Nem-CuereeteodPrlvet. Det* Totes Outeteadlg Oleburee*

RATS Of 9CHAM10 11W/iS0A LIENoICO (etrtuey 2t, 1105)(MIlilee us.)

USl .00 * SC4S n.1 S 01St *.00 Outoteudieg S Otebetsed 2.0 VedlObureod 23.3 Oettedleg lest.Ugitbure 52.2

Si".. July 107s uMl.00 * ^ua2.00 506*1.00 * Ut0.S0

st Preialeory ektimtst . b Ocecetle *goutto. S/ Ratio of debt service ht sporto of o.e4d cod trtvol rc..ipk".

noet evollble SUMMARYAND CONCLUSIONS i. The new Governmentof Barbados,elected in May 1986,has reaffirmeda commitmentto an economicstrategy based on export-ledgrowth and a greaterrole for the privatesector, with the publicsector playing a supportiverole. This strategyis essentialconsidering the poor perform- ance of the economyover the past five years,in markedcontrast to its performanceduring the previousdecades. ii. The economyof Barbadosperformed impressively during the 1960s and 1970sdespite its limitednatural resources and high population density. Economicgrowth averaged 5t per year in real terms,living standardsrose and low populationgrowth permitted per capitaincome to advanceto US$4b80in 1985. Meanwhile,the economydiverstfied away from sugar dependentagriculture to one featuringstrong tourism and manufactur- ing sectors. This transformationis largelyattributable to the country's socialand politicalstability, an outward-lookingstrategy in trade, relianceon marketsand a judiciousbalance between the rolesof the Governmentand privateenterprise. iii. Duringthe 1980s,however, Barbados suffered severe external shocksfrom the 1981-83world recessionand from trade restrictionsin the CARICOMmarket. These factorscaused sharp downswingsin tourism,manufac- turingand agricultureleading to negativeGDP growthin 1981 and 1982 and uneven growthsince then. GDP grovthslowed down considerablyto 0.3% in 1985,compared with 3.5% attainedin 1984,and cumulativelythe economyhas not grown in real terms since 1980. Meanwhile,unemployment has increased steadilyfrom 12.3% in 1980 to 18.6X in 1985. Lack of growthin the economyis also reflectedin the sluggishgrowth in imports. The conse- quent narrowingin the trade gap combinedwith increasednon-factor servicesled to a currentaccount surplus equivalent to 1.4% of GDP in 1985. This positiveexternal balance, however, has resultedat the cost of a structuralimbalance, as discussedin the report. The country's productivecapacity remains underutilized. iv. Notwithstandingthe slowdownin the economy,central government currentrevenues increased significantly during the 1980s. In 1985/86,the increasewas primarilydue to increasedstamp duties and improvedtax collections.These gains,however, were erodedby steepincreases in wages, salariesand transferpayments. Consequently,the central governmentcurrent account surplus narrowed from the equivalentof 2.3% of GOP in 1980 to 0.8% of GOP in 1985. The publicsector current surplus also narrowedconsiderably in 1985,and the share of domesticfinancing of publicinvestment declined from 68/ in 1984 to 61% in 1985. v. The new Governmenthas presentedthrough its July 1986 budget proposals,a wide range of tax concessionsto stimulategrowth in the economy. loreemphasis is being placedon exportmarketing and on stimul- ating domesticinvestment via tax concessions.The publicsector is expectedto play a supportiverole and to attainhigher levelsof - ii - operationalefficiency. There are, however,a numberof issuesthat need to be addressed in order to achieve the growth performance expected by the Government.

Major Issues vi. Macroeconomicissues: Economicrecovery will cruciallydepend on improvingthe competitivenessof Barbados'exports and therebycreating a climatefor profitableinvestments in the economy. Publicinvestment will also form an integralpart of this scenario,in supportingprivate invest- ment. Thus, two areas which warranturgent attentionrelate to improving Barbados'international competitiveness and raisingthe level of public savingsthrough fiscal policy measures. vii. While the recentdecline of the US4, to which the bDS$ is pegged, has broughtabout some improvement,Barbados remains relatively costly as a destinationfor tourismand as a sourceof manufactures.Cumulatively, the real effectiveexchange rate had appreciatedby about 32% in 1985, and by about 21% as of June 1986,in relationto the 1980 base. The exchangerate appreciationtogether with recentwage increasesbeyond productivity gains, have severelyeroded Barbados' international competitiveness. Restoration of Barbados'international competitiveness is thus an urgentand important objective. The Governmenthas attachedhigh priorityto this objectiveand has chosenthe approachof cost reductionthrough a combinationof fiscal, monetaryand incomespolicies. Nevertheless,the Governmentshould assess the lmplicat(insof an appropriateadjustment of the exchangerate, supportedby sectoralprograms and fiscaland monetarypolicy measures. An exchangerate adjustmentwould simultaneouslyact on boostingexports, improvingallocative efficiency of imports,helping the fiscalrevenues via trade taxes and on reducingreal wage rates--allof which are needed to stimulateeconomic growth and employment. viii. In regardto fiscalpolicy, the urgent task beforethe Government is to restorebalance in its centralgovernment current account. The tax concessionsoffered by the July 1986 budgetare likelyto resultin a significantrevenue loss in the short term. This loss needs to be compensatedby revenueincreases, possibly through taxes on consumption, and by currentexpenditure controls. Unless this is done, domestic resourcemobilization efforts will falterand thus adverselyaffect the financingof publicinvestment. Foreignborrowing in the contextof a centralgovernment current account deficit would also adverselyaffect the country'screditworthiness. Concurrently, the speedyimplementation of the Government'sproposals to privatizeselected loss makingpublic enterprises engagedin non-strategicactivities could improvethe fiscalsituation. ix. SelectedSectoral Issues: The tourismsector is the biggest employerand prime generatorof foreignexchange earnings. It also has a bettergrowth potentialthan any other sectorof the economy. But it has seriousproblems which will have to be faced soon, and more resolutelythan has been the case so far. Occupancyrates remainlow as the average - iii - visitorspent fewer days in Barbados. This, combinedwith competitiveroom rate cuttingamong operators,has causeda fall in hotel revenues. The qualityof the iadustry'sassets (buildings,fixtures and fittings)has deterioratedand debts to the banks have grown. The numberof delinquent loans to tourism,particularly from the Government-ownedBarbados DevelopmentBank (ADS),and the numberof loans at risk, have given rise to seriousconcern in both tourismand bankingcircles. It has also inhibited new lendingto financeessential refurbishing investments in the sectoras a whole. x. Diagnosticstudies of the industryhave isolatedmarketing and managementas the most importantareas in need of correctiveaction. Marketingefforts by the hotel operatorsand by the Board of Tourism,have been both inadequateand underfinanced.Therefore, there is a need for closercooperation among the hoteliersin sellinghotel and apartmentspace and for more flexibletargeting to those marketswhere an exchangerate advantageis perceived,however temporary, as in the case of Europeduring 1986. Attractingthe high spendingup-market segments of tourismwill also call for a substantiallyupgraded tourist product through refurbishing and renovation.The tourismsector will also benefitfrom a numberof tax cuts introducedin the new Government'sfirst budget. The reductionin property taxes will benefitall the hotel and apartmentoperations, while the cut in the corporationtax rate will help profitableenterprises. The reduction in the hotel sales tax, may also give hoteliersan opportunityto stabilize prices. Where managementis concearned,there is a particularneed to increaseawareness and controlof overheadcosts and to exercisewage restraint. A uniformsystem of accountinghas been preparedfor the use of tne many hotel and apartmentoperations, but needs to be adoptedwidely.

xi. The manufacturingsector suffered from a severerecession which continuedunabated in 1985, and was mainlyresponsible for the poor performanceof the economyas a whole. While demandfrom the local market held up reasonablywell, demandwithin the CARICOMmarket, particularly Trinidadand Tobago,contracted sharply. Extra-regionaldemand for the main Barbadianexport products, electronic components and clothing,also declined. In these circumstancesmore effortsshould be made to widen the range of productsassembled in Barbados,intensify marketing efforts abroad and to encouragejoint venturesas a means of securinggreater access to marketsabroad and upgradingtechnology.

xii. The offshoreassembly sector also needs to diversifyto protect itselffrom fluctuationsin demandfor individualproduct groups, which causedplant closuresand big job lossesin 1985 and 1986. Export-oriented serviceindustries (e.g., offshore finance and data processing),have proved to have growthpotential which shouldbe encouraged.L4eanwhile, there are furtheropportunities for encouragingentrepreneurship and strengtheningsector performance in areas of managementskills and financialcontrol. The internationalcompetitiveness of the sectoras a whole would benefitfrom wage restraint;the substitutionof employmentand wage incomeobjectives for the traditionalwage rate objectiveshould be encouraged. - iv - xiii. In agriculture,the major issuesrelate to the rationalizationof the sugar industryand to the expansionand diversificationof non-sugar agriculture.Profitability in the sugar subsectorhas steadilydeclined owing to both externaland internalfactors. The world price oZ sugar declinedin recentyears and the preferentialprice offeredby the EEC (aroundUS cents 18/lb.)is now below the cost of sugarproduction in Barbados(around US cents 28/lb.). The main factorscontributing to the high cost of productionare the high cost of labor,overheads and management.While wage restraintis calledfor, in this subsectoras well, there is some scope to improveproduction efficiency. The latterincludes (a) measuresto releasemarginal lands for pasttlreor other crops and (b) incentivesfor furtherreduction of extraneousmatter in sugardelivered. xiv. As regardsnon-dugar agriculture, Barbados is seekingto increase the varietyof crops and to raise production,both by expandingthe area plantedand by increasingyields. It is focusingon crops such as cotton, vegetablesand flowersfor which exportmarkets may be found, wlmortsub- stitutioncrops such as onions and peanuts,and on livestockand fisheries for the domesticmarkets, but, is constrainedby productionand marketing problems. The diversificationeffort calls for: (a) a major improvement in input supplies(particularly seed materials);(b) promotionof private sectorleadership in findingnew marketsin Europeand North America;(c) the formulationof an insurancescheme for new crops; (d) specialassist- ance schemesfor livestockand fisheries;and (e) educationand trainingof entrepreneursengaged in agriculture.The proposedagricultural develop- ment projectto be financedby the World Bank (see Annex I) seeks to assist this diversificationeffort.

PublicSector InvestmentProgram (PSIk) i986-1988 xv. In view of the financialconstraints likely to prevailduring the next two years,the publicsector investment program (PSIP) has been signi- ficantlyreduced. This reductionis beingcarried out principallythrough a re-phasingof implementationschedules of projects(mainly locally funded)over longertime periodsand by moving out of physicalinfrastruc- tures (roads,ports) to more directlyproductive areas of activityas reflectedin the technicalassistance requested. The PSIP for 1986-88 (bothon-going and new projects)amounts to US$207.1million, of which US$102.3million represents the externalfinancing requirements. Disburse- ments from existingcommitments would amountto about US$84.3million, leavinga financinggap of about US$18million. xvi. Externalfinancing requirements for balanceof payments/budgetary supportare estimatedto increasesignificantly in the short term, owing to increasingfiscal deficits, partly as a resultof the wide range of tax concessionsoffered by the July 1986 budget- Externalassistance for balanceof payments/budgetarysupport for the period 1986-88is estimated at aroundUS$100 million. Of this,US$70 million has been identifiedfor 1986 and 1987,leaving a gap of US$30 millionfor 1988. This financing gap, however,should be consideredas tentativesiDce the extentof externalborrowing for the budgetcould diminishconsiderably depending on new revenuemeasures in 1988 and currentexpenditure controls. -v -

Medium Term Prospects xvii. The short-and medium-termoutlook for Barbadosi'economy is governedby many factors. Apart from externalfactors and unpredictable weather,the evolutionof the economywould largelydepend on several factorssuch as the privatesector responses to the tax incentivesoffered, recoveryfrom recentplant closures,the upgradingand marketingof the touristproduct and the size, compositionand new directionsof public investment. Thus, projectionsof key economicvariables must be regarded as tentative. Subjectto this caveat,the economicoutlook in the short- and medium-termmay be sketchedas follows. xviii. Based on January-June1986 performance,economic growth is likely to averagearound 3% in 19M6, but turn negativeto -1.5% in 1987 owing to the downturnin manufacturing.Thereafter, GDP growthcould recoverand range betweenabout 2% and 4% per yeat over the medium-term,depending on the degreeof responseby the privatesector to the privatetax incentives, an adjustmentof the exchangerate, implementationof other measuresto restoreinternational competitiyeness and on tourismgrowth in responseto improvedmarketing. The externalcurrent account is likelyto turn negativein 1987, largelyowing to the projecteddrop in electronics exports. Thereafter,the currentaccount is projectedto improvegradually to reach a positivebalance on the order of 1% of GDP in 1991. The debt serviceratio is likelyto rise from 8% in 1985 to a peak of about 17% to 1d% in 1991 beforefalling off and pointsto the importanceof a cautious borrowingstrategy. Externalfinancing should be soughtonly for projects with significantgains in outputand exportearnings. xix. The Governmentis well aware of the measuresthat need to be taken to stimulategrowth and exportsand it is evidentthat prudent economicmanagement, as in the past, would continue. Barbadosis consideredto be creditworthy,as in the past, for Bank lending. I* RECENTECONOMIC PERFORNANCE

Introduction

1.01 Barbadoshas enjoyedpolitical and socialstability over the past severaldecades, with changesin governmentthrough a strong democratictradition. The May 1986 generalelections - anothermilestone in this tradition- returnedto power the DemocraticLabor Party (DLP) after a period of ten years. The new governmenthas emphasizedits commit- ment to an economicstrategy based on export-ledgrowth and a greaterrole for the privatesector, with the publicsector playing a supportiverole. One of the objectivesof this reportis to presenta preliminaryassessment of the Government'spolicy posture.

1.02 A changein economicstrategy is not only timelybut also essen- tial, consideringthe challengesfacing the country. As the analysisin this chapterwould indicatecumulatively the economyhas not grown in real terms since 1980 owing to a numberof externalas well as internal factors. Meanwhile,unemployment has increasedsteadily from 12.3 percent in 1980 to 18.6 percentin 1985. Lack of growth in the economyis also reflectedin the sluggishgrowth in imports. The consequentnarrowing in the trade gap combinedwith increasednon-factor services led to a current accountsurplus equivalent to 1.4% of GDP in 1985. This positiveexternal balance,however, has resultedat the cost of a structuralimbalance, as discussedbelow; the country'sproductive capacity remains underutilized. To correctthis structuralimbalance via sustainedgrowth, to which the Governmentis committed,a numberof macroeconomicas well as sectoral issuesneed to be addressed. The analysisin this reportwill seek to elucidatethese issuesand formulatesome recommendations.The reportwill also reviewrecent economic performance and the proposedpublic investment programand assessmedium-term financing requirements.

EconomicGrowth

1,03 The economyof Barbadosperformed itpressively during the 1960s and 1970s,despite its limitednatural resources and a high population density.l/ Economicgrowth averaged 5% per year, livingstandards rose and low growthof a populationestimated at around253,000 as of end 1985 permittedper capitaincome to advanceto US$4680in that year. Meanwhile, the economicbase diversifiedaway from a sugar-dependentagriculture to one featuringstrong tourism and manufacturingsectors. These developments are largelyattributable to the country'soutward-looking strategy, relianceon markets,a judiciousbalance between the roles of Government and privateenterprise and the country'ssocial and politicalstability.

1.04 Barbadossuffered its most severeexternal shock in recenttimes duringthe 1981-83world recession. Activityin the sensitivetourism sector,the largestexport earner, dropped a cumulative21% over the two years 1981 and 1982. This decline,combined with poor sugar harvestsowing to bad weatherand weakeningcommodity prices in the same years,caused the

1/ World Bank publication,Barbados, Development Challenges, April 1985 (ReportNo. 5604-BAR),Washington, D.C. - 2 -

balanceof paymentsand publicfinances to deterioratesharply during 1981-83. The authoritiesadopted a programof fiscaland monetary austeritysupported by an IMF Stand-by,and by the end of 1983,the deteriorationin the public financesand balanceof paymentswas con- tained. But, the economyemerged from the 1981-1983period with its economicstructure severely weakened. Both the tourismand sugar sectors encounteredsevere financial difficulties in thoseyears that continued into 1984. The manufacturingsector meanwhile was sustainedby strong growthin the enclaveelectronics subsector whose performancemore than outweighedthe declinesin the rest of manufacturing.

1.05 After two years of negativegrowth during the 1981-83world recession,the economyrecovered mildly in 1983 and recordeda growthrate of 3.5% in 1984. But GDP growthslowed down significantlyto 0.3% in 1985 owing to poor performancein tourismand manufacturingwhich declinedby 3% arid9.5% respectively(Table 1). Havingrecovered in 1984,tourism suffereda setbackin 1985;stay-over tourist arrivals declined owing to sharpdrops in arrivalsfrom Trinidadand Tobagoand from the United Kingdom.2/ The averagelength of stay also declinedreflecting an increasingshift towardstourists from the UnitedStates. The resultant declinein touristdays, however, was partiallyoffset by increasedtourist expenditureper day. The manufacturingsector which had recoveredin 1983 and 1984 also suffereda setbackin 1985,following continued trade restrictionsin the CARICOMmarket and the consequentclosure of several export-orientedplants. The world-widesemi-conductor production glut also beganto dampenthe enclaveelectronics industry which had accountedfor over 40% of merchandiseexports in 1984.

1.06 In contrast,the declinein agricultureduring 1985 was marginal. While sugarproduction stagnated at around 100,000tons, non- sugaragriculture declined by 1% mainlyowing to a declinein vegetable production. Lossesin thesekey sectorswere, however,offset by growthin mining,quarrying, construction and servicesectors in 1985,to yield the marginallypositive GDP growthrate referredto above.

1.07 A more worrisometrend in the economyis the steadilydeclining levelof gross investment.As Table 1 indicates,total investmenthas declineddramatically from an avetageof 25% of GDP duringthe threeyears ending 1982 to 15.2%of GDP in 1985. This downswingin investmentmay be largelyattributable to privateinvestors' perceptions of considerably reducedbusiness opportunities following the 1981-83world recessionand restrictionsin CARICORtrade.

1.08 Economicstagnation since 1981 has pushedup unemploymentas shown in Table 1. The rapidirzrease in unemploymentis mainlyattribut- able to job lossesin the manufacturingsector following a numberof plant closures. Unemploymentis likelyto increasefurther following recent closuresby two major foreignfirms - Intel,engaged in the assemblyof semi-conductors,employing over 900, and Playtexgarments, employing over 300 - owing to problemsof over capacityin their respectiveindustries, world-wide.

2/ StatisticalAppendix, Tables 9.1 and 9.2. - 3 -

Table 1: GDP Growth and Investment,1980-1985

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

GOP Growth (% p.a.) 4.4 -1.9 -4.9 0.4 3.5 0.3 Agriculture(% p.a.) 5.5 -17.2 -2.7 3.9 9.5 0.5 Manufacturing(% p.a.) 2.2 -3.6 -5.4 2.5 1.9 -9.5 Tourism(X p.a.) 3.7 -6.7 -14.0 -2.0 7.0 -3.0

Investment(Z of GD?) 25.3 27.6 22.6 19.9 16.2 15.2 Unemployment(A of labor force) 12.3 10.7 13.7 14.5 17.1 18.6

Source: StatisticalAppendix Tables 1.2, 2.2 and 2.3.

PublicSector Finances

1.09 Notwithstaudingthe slowdownin the economy,public sector revenuesincreased rapidly during the years 1983 to 1985 (Table2). A major share of this increasecame from centralgovernment revenues follow- ing improvedtax collectionsand increasedstamp duties(other taxes). Revenuesof non-financialpublic enterprises also increasedrapidly during the same periodwith major contributionscoming from the BarbadosWater Authority,and the BarbadosNational Oil Company. These significantgains, however,were eroded by sharp increasesin wages, salariesand transfer payments. Duringthe three fiscalyears ending 1985/86,central government wages increasedby about 32%, mainly owing to a wage settlementfor Governmentemployees amounting to 12.5% for 1984/85and 5% for 1985/86, Wage settlementsin the statutoryboards were also of similarmagnitudes. Consequently,public sectoras well as centralgovernment current surplus narrowedconsiderably in 1985 (Table2). In turn, the share of domestic financingof publicinvestment from public savingshas declinedin recent years.

1.10 A significantdevelopment in fiscalpolicy during the past six monthswas the wide range of tax concessionsoffered by the July 1986 budgetto stimulategrowth in the economy. These tax concessionsincluded: (a) the reductionof the maximumrate of corporationtax from 45% to 35%; (b) a reductionof land taxes payableby hotelsand apartmenthotels by 50%; (c) a reductionof the hotel and restaurantsales tax from 8% to 5%; and (d) personalincome tax reductionsthrough the raisingof the income tax exemptionlimit to BDS$15,000per year, wideningof the tax bands and limitingthe maximumrate on taxableincome to 50%. the economicimplica- tions of these tax concessionswill be discussedin ChapterII. - 4 -

Table 2: Public Sectorfinances, 1980-1985 (Z of GDP at Market Prices)

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

Revenues 32.1 32.1 35.7 37.8 38.1 38.4 CurrentExpend. 27.6 28.9 32.0 32.5 33.2 34.1 Pub. Sect. Current Surplus 4.5 3.2 3.7 5.3 4.9 4.3 Cen. Govt. Current Surplus 2.3 1.3 0.8 1.9 1.1 0.8

Source: StatisticalAppendix Tables 2.3 and 5.6

Money and Credit

1.11 Broad money (X2) consistingof currencyand demand,savings and time deposits,grew at 12.8% in 1985 comparedwith 8.2Z during the previous year, and in excessof the 6% nominal GDP growthrate in 1985. The demand for money, on the other hand, remainedlow during 1985,owing to the slowdownin economicactivity and in the level of investment.While net borrowingby the Governmentfrom the bankingsystem declined in 1985, the demandfor creditfrom the tourismand manufacturingsectors was considerablyweaker than in 1984. Also, despiteinitiatives by the Governmentto increasethe availabilityof mortgagefunds at a lower cost, total lendingby mortgageinstitutions fell in 1985. However,consumer credit,particularly for the purchaseof cars and home improvements increasedin 1985 relativeto 1984. In addition,bank creditfor trans- portation,utilities and distributionrose in 1985. These increaseswere insufficientto forestalla massivebuild-up of liquidityin the banking system,significantly above the reserverequirements. With a view to reducingthis level of liquiditythe authoritiestook steps duringmid-1986 to increasethe reserverequirement from 27% to 30% and to lower the interestrates on savingsaccounts.

Pricesand Wages

1.12 The rate of domesticinflation, as measuredby the averageretail price index,slowed down to 3.9% in 1985 as comparedwith 4.2% during 1984. The low rate of inflationreflected declines in the fuel and light index,and the medicalan4 personalcare index and a small increasein the index for education,recreation and miscellanousitems. Wage increases,on the other hand, averaged5.8% during 1985 comparedwith 11.3% for 1984. Wage increaseswere highestin the electricty,gas and water sub-sector (11.7%),followed by commerce(11.2%) and lowestin the manufacturingsub- sector (4.0) The implicationsof these wage increasesbeyond the rate of inflationand of real wage increasesin excessof GDP growthwill be dis- cussedin Chapter LI. -5-

Balanceof Paymentsand ExternalDebt

1.13 The value uf merchandiseexports fell by about US$39 milliomin 1985 relativeto the 1984 level,largely owing to the recessionin the regionalmarkets and trade restrictionsimposed by Trinidadand Tobago. The value of imports,on the other hand, fell by US$53 millionin 1985 relativeto the 1984 level,mainly owing to a drop in capitalgoods imports and consequentlythe trade gap narrowedin 1985. This combinedwith increasedearnings from tourismled to a currentaccount surplus equivalent to 1.4% of GDP in 1985, comparedwith 1.6% of GDP in 1984.

1.14 Althoughgross externalborrowing declined marginally, net externalborrowing fell significantlyowing to increasedamortization pay- ments. A major share of the gross externalborrowing came from commercial banks (US$somillion of a total of US$69.3million) and was intendedto strengthenthe country'sexternal reserve position. ExcludingBarbados' illiquidclaims of USS$60million against the CaribbeanMultilateral Clear- ing Facility(CMCF), the country'sgross internationalreserves stood at the equivalentof 1.7 months of importcover as of end 1985. Increased borrowingin recent years raised Barbados'Government and Government guaranteed debt (medium- and long-term) to the equivalent of US$352 million as of end-1985. The debt service ratio reached 8% of domestic exports and touristreceipts compared wth 5.8% in 1984.

Table 3: Key MacroeconomicBalances, 1980-85

(S of GDP at Market Prices)

1989 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

Ext. Cur. Act. Bal. -4.5 -9.0 -4.2 -4.8 1.6 1.4 Exp. of Goods & non-factorservices 66.2 59.4 61.7 62.6 b7.7 59.4 Importsof Goods & non-factorservices -73.8 -71.2 -67.7 -68.3 -67.0 -58.6 Net factorservices 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -1.1 -0.9 -0.9 Privatetransfers 2.8 2.8 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.5

equals

Public SectorGap -3.4 -5.7 -5.2 -2.4 -2.3 -2.7 Revenues 32.1 32.1 35.7 37.8 38.1 38.4 CurrentExpend. 27.6 :18.9 32.0 32.5 33.2 34.1 CapitalExpend. 7.9 8.9 8.9 7.7 7.2 7.0

plus

PrivateSector Bal. 1.1 -3.3 1.0 -2.4 3.9 4.1 PrivateInvestment 17.4 18.7 13.7 12.2 9.0 8.2 PrivateSavings 18.5 15.4 14.7 9.8 12.9 12.3

Source: StatisticalAppendix Tables 2.3, 3.1 and 5.6. - 6-

Internal and kxternal balances

1.15 The links between some ot the key macroeconomic aggregates dis- cussed above could be usefully seen In terms of a national income framework which expresses the external balance in terms of internal oalances. The external current account balance is in fact equal to the overall public sector investment-savingsgap and the private investment-savingsgap, as Table 3 would indicate. This framework shows that the external current account balance in 19i5 mainly reflects the sb4rp fall in private invest- ment from 16.7% of GOP in 1981 to s.Z%of GOP in 19b5, owing to reasons noted earlier (paras. 1.05 and 1.07), and a smaller decline in public investment, both expressed as percentages of GOP. Declining investment caused capital goods imports to fall significantly from the equivalent of 14.b% of GDP in 1981 to about 9X of Ube in 1965 (see statist'cal Appendix Table 3.3). un the other hand, if Barbados' exports had remained competitive, as discussed later in Chapter II, the higher volure of exports would have generated a demand for'profitableinvestments by the private sector. tigher private sector investment would have led not only to increased levels of output and employment as a result of increased expenditure, but also would have formed permanent increases in the country's competitive capital stock. In the absence of this volume of i"vestment and of a satisfactory growth rate in the economy a positive external oalance nas resulted at the cost of under-utilizationof the country's productive potential. The attainment of a satisfactory growth rate whilst maintaining sustainable internal and external balances is by no means easy and would depend on effective measures to raise the level of domestic investment and to reach extra-regionalmarkets. as Chapter II of tnis report indicates, this calls for the addressing of several macroeconomic as well as sectoral issues through the use of a number of policy instruments. II. GOVERNMENTPOLICY AND MAJOR ISSUES

GovernmentPolicy

2.01 Shortlyafter assumingoffice, the new Governmentproposed a fiscalpolicy reform package aimed at economicrecovery, employment creationand improvingliving standards of the population. Its objectives were: to stimulatedomestic demand through higher disposable incomes resultingfrom tax cuts; to stimulateinvestment through reduced taxes on businesses;and to achievebalance, equity and efficiencyin the tax sys;em. These proposalswere translatedinto a set of tax concessionsand presentedthrough the zecentBudget of July 1986 (para.1.10). Duringthe past few months,the Governmenthas emphasizedits commitmentto an economicstrategy based on export-ledgrowth and a greaterrole for the privatesector, with the publicsector playing a supportiverole. In this respect,a few loss makingpublic enterprises engaged in non-strategiccom- mercialactivity are to be privatizea. The Governmenthas also appointeda Task Force to formulatespecific proposals for stimulatingemployment.

2.02 The above proposalsare some steps in the right directionfor augmentingeconomic recovery. The responseof the economyto these initia- tiveswill take time and it is prematureat this stage to assessthe probablesize of the response. There are, however,several macroeconomic and sectoralissues that need to be addressedif the desiredresponse is to be realized. A greaterdegree of cautionin furtherpolicy action is all-the-morenecessary, given the worrisomeeconomic trends in recent years.

MacroeconomicIssues

2.03 Export-ledgrowth, to which the governmentis committedwill cruciallydepend on improvingthe competitivenessof Barbados'exports and tourism. The volumeof exportand tourismactivity so generatedwill then createthe demandfor more investment. Thus, new investments,if they are profitable,would be the result,rather than the causeof increasedexports and tourismactivity. Such investmentsmay mainly take the form of improvementsor extensionsof existingcapacity (e.g., hotel renovation technologyupgrading, minor capitaladditions). It is in such a scenario that tax concessionsreferrred to earlierwould be more meaningfullymade use of by the privatesector. Publicsector investment will also form an integralpart of this scenarioin its supportiverole to the private sector. Since the recenttax concessionshave been designedto stimulate privatesavings and investment,emphasis must now fall on raisingpublic savingsvia two policy instruments,namely new revenuemeasures and expend- iture controls. Thus, two macroeconomicareas which warranturgent atten- tion relateto internationalcompetitiveness and fiscalpolicy.

2.04 InternationalCompetitiveness: While the recentdecline of the U1$, to which the BDS$ is pegged,has broughtabout some improvement, Barbados'main competitors,including Jamaica and Trinidadand Tobago,have had sharp devaluationsover the past 18 months,leaving Barbados as a relativelycostly destination for tourismand manufacturing.Cumulatively, the real effectiveexchange rate had appreciatedby about 32% in 1985,in relationto the 1980 base. As of June 1986,however, the extentof -8 - appreciationstood at about 21%. While real wage rates in tourismand manufacturinghave increasedin recentyears, value added in both sectors have declinedin relationto the 1980 base (See StatisticalAnnex Table 2.2). Nor has there been an increasein the value added per worker commensuratewith real wage increasesduring the last few years. Thus, the exchangerate appreciation,together with recentwage increasesin these sectorsbeyond productivity gains, have eroded Barbados'international competitiveness(see Table 4).

Table 4: Indicatorsof Competitiveness

Indicator 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

Real Effect. Exch. Rate (Avg.) 100.0 106.0 112.1 118.6 118.7 131.8 Wage Rate Index (Hotels) 100.0 136.0 134.0 146.0 151.8 161.7 Wage Rate Index (Manuf.) 100.0 115.8 129.1 140.4 144.6 151.0 RetailPrice Index (Avg.) 100.0 114.6 126.4 133.0 139.2 144.6 RelativeWage Rate Indexa/ 100.0 103.5 110.4 115.6 114.6 115.4 a/ Barbadoswage rate index (manuf.)divided by US wage rate index (manuf.)

Source: StatisticalAppendix Tables 7.1, 7.2 and IMF.

2.05 Restorationof Barbados'international competitiveness is thus an urgent and importantobjective. The Governmenthas attachedhigh priority to this objective,and has chosenthe approachof cost reductionthrough a combinationof fiscal,monetary and incomespolicies. Nevertheless,the Governmentshould assess the implicationsof an appropriateadjustment of the exchangerate, supportedby solutionsto a number of sectoralproblems, principallyin marketing,finance and managementdiscussed below (para. 2.08 onwards). The main advantageof the exchangerate instrumentis its simultaneousimpact on severaltarget areas. First,it would generatean increaseddemand for Barbadianmerchandise exports and tourismvia more competitiveprices, provide incentives in the form of highermargins to entrepreneursin local currencyterms and help promoteemployment. Second, it would improvethe allocativeefficiency of importsthrough a higherand a more realisticprice. While these two effectswill help the external current account, a more favorable exchange rate would also marginally help the external capital account by way of disincentives for capital flight. Third,it would automaticallyreduce real wages and thus help control domesticproduction costs, provided that wage restraintis exercised(in nominal terms) to ensure that wages do not rise in proportion to prices. Fourth, central government finances would benefitvia increasedtrade taxes. Currentexpenditures, dominated by wages, is not likelyto rise by as much as revenues,provided wage restraintis exercised. The efficacyof an exchangerate adjustmentwill, however,crucially depend on controlling money supplyto ensure that expansionof credit is in line with planned nominalGDP growthand on containingthe fiscaldeficit within manageable limits. -9-

2.06 Fiscal Policy: One of the immediateconsequences of the tax concessionsoffered by the July 1986 budget is a revenueloss of about BDS$12 millionin 1986/87compared to the previousyear's revenueof about BDS$646million. In relationto the originalbudget estimate of BDS$705 million (presentedin Aarch 1986),the revenue 1o0s is estimatedat around BDS$67 million. On the basis of recenttrends in tax collections,the Governmentexpects a higher volumeof corporatetaxes from increased economicactivity to offset the loss of personalincome taxes during the next fiscalyear 1987/88. Even so, the currentaccount deficit is estimatedat around BDS$26million or 1% of GDP. This fiscalimbalance needs to be addressedfirst throughnew revenuemeasures, preferably in the form of increasedtaxes on consumption. Their negativeeffects on private savings,if at all, are likelyto be much smallerthan the increasein public savings. Second,concerted efforts have to be made to controlthe growth of currentexpenditure, mainly throughrestraints on its largest component,i.e., the wage bill. The increasein disposableincomes followingthe recenttax concessionsconsiderably reduces the justification for wage increases. While efficiencyimprovements in publicenterprises will also help increasenon-tax revenues,a speedy implementationof the Government'sproposal to privatizeselected loss making enterprises(e.g. Arawak Cement),will also reduce the fiscal burden. Unless steps along these lines are taken,public savingsto financepublic investmentwill be greatlyreduced, leading inevitably to increasedforeign borrowing. Such foreignborrowing in the contextof a centralgovernment current account deficitwould cause the country'sdebt burden and debt servicingto rise further,and adverselyaffect the country'screditworthiness.

2.07 t4acroeconomicData Base: The adverseeconomic trends noted in Chapteri underlinethe importanceof macroeconomicmanagement. The emergingmacroeconomic situation needs to be closelyand more frequently monitoredin terms of key indicatorsrelating to tourism,manufacturing output,agriculture, exports, imports, public finances,money supply, employment,wages and prices. The efficacyof macroeconomicmanagement will largelydepend on reliableand up-to-dateinformation. But, the data base for macroeconomic management remains weak, with a number of inconsistencies in national income data (e.g., between real and nominal GDP), delays in compilationof key macroeconomic aggregates and the lack of estimatesof key indicators(e.g., the export volumeand price indices). These weaknessesstem from inadequatecoordination amongst agencies involved,delays in compilingdata and estimatingmacroeconomic aggregates, staff shortagesat the professionallevel (e.g., the BarbadosStatistical Service)and the lack of computerfacilities. Data base developmentis clearlyan area which calls for more technicalassistance. The immediate task would be to implement the main recommendations made by the IMF mission of April 1985 regardingtrade, tourism,production and nationalaccounts statistics. Anotherarea which could benefitfrom technicalassistance is macroeconomicmodelling. Althoughthe Central Bank staff has made significantstrides in developingshort-term forecasting models, much remainsto be done in formulatingsuitable medium- and long-term forecastingmodels. A set of key macroeconomicindicators based on an improveddata base togetherwith short-and medium-termforecasts would help strengthenmacroeconomic monitoring on a frequentbasis by senior policy makers. - 10 -

SelectedSectoral Issues

Tourism

2.08 The tourismsector, includingaccommodation and the main linkage servicessuch as bars and restaurants,sporting and transportactivities accountsfor about 10 of GDP and is the biggestemployer and the prime generatorof foreignexchange. It also has a bettergrowth potential than any other major area of economicactivity. Market factorsincluding higher growth rate in the US and West Germany,and the likelihoodthat more North Americanswill prefer to spend holidaysclose to home due to securityfears elsewhere,and the continuingstrength of most Europeancurrencies, are reasonsto expectan upturn in demandfor Barbados'tourism services. However,the quality of the industry'sassets, building, fixtures and fittings,for example,has deteriorazed. Debts to the banks,particularly the BDB, have grown. Althoughtourist arrival statisticsshow an improvementsince 1982, the more indicativefigures, for bednightssold, show a continuingdecline. With the consequentfall in revenuesto hotel and apartmentowners, the number of unprofitableenterprises has grown. The problemareas which fall into four major categories,viz, marketing, management,finance (includingrising labor costs)and the institutional framework,are discussedin detail below.

2.09 Marketing: The generalview within the industryis that market- ing effortsby hotel operatorsand by the Board of Tourismhave beeu both inadequateand underfinanced. Hoteliers'marketing efforts have taken the form of sharp rate cuts and increasesin commissionpayments. These have benefittedtour operatorswithout generating the necessaryincreases in occupancylevels and the expectedgrowth in revenues. Variousstudies 3/ have shown that the cost of accommodationin Barbadosis not significantly out of line with costs in competingdestinations (other than Jamaicaand Mexico followingrecent devaluations)such as Antiguaand Barbudaor St. Lucia. In addition,demand in both North Americanand Europeanmarkets for holidaysin the Caribbeangenerally, and Barbadosin particular,have been demonstratedto be far more sensitiveto changesin disposableincome, exchangerates and particularlyair fares, than to changesin room rates which tend to be absorbedin tour operators'margins.

2.10 This suggeststhat hoteliers'would benefitfirst, from closer cooperationin marketing;second, from flexibletargeting to those markets where an exchangerate advantageis perceived(as with Europeduring the 1986 declinein the value of the US dollar);third, by keepingup the pressureon airlinesto organizefavorable fare deals; and fourth,to supportand encouragethe TourismBoard in marketingBarbados as a destina- tion for the up-marketor high-classtourism in exclusiveresorts as well as for more down-marketspecial interest tourism and specialaffinity groups. More importantly,reaching the up-marketsegment of tourismcalls for an upgradedtourist product and highlightsthe importanceof hotel refurbishingand renovation.

2.11 Management: The currentrecession has broughtmanagement weak- nesses to the fore as a major problemin the country. In particular,the awarenessand controlof overheadcosts and qualitycontrols remain weak. A uniform systemof accountingfor the use of the many hotel and apartment operators

3/ Governmentof Barbados,Comparative Tourism Pricing Study, May 1984. - 11 - who need to upgrade (or install)basic managementtools is among the proposedsolutions. The BDB also plans to appointan accountantto promote hotel financialmanagement, particularly among its clients. It also may be possibleto provideadditional technical assistance by financinga manage- ment consultancyprogram to work with the varioushotels, apartment hotels and other touristaccommodation enterprises.

2.12 Finance: Closelyrelated to management,the financialsituation of all but a few hotel and apartmentoperations has been seriouslyunder- mined by the tourismrecession. The sellers'market of the 1970sobscured the financialweaknesses of many tourismoperations then, and the buyers' marketof the of the late 1980s has made them only too apparent. The basic marketingstrategy recently has been to lower room rates in order to improveoccupancy rates. This did not succeedand there was a generalfall in revenueswhile labor costs rose. Losses incurredcaused substantial erosionof both the workingcapital and equity. Debts were not being servicedand had to be rescheduled,which has made it even more difficult to raise funds for the considerablerefurbishment program needed. At presentthere is no clear solutionfor the industry'sfinancial problems in sight, other than the long-termbenefits to be derivedfrom bettermanage- ment practicesand the short-termprobability of an improvementin revenues,starting with the 1986/87winter season.

2.13 The InstitutionalFramework: This includesthe whole area of public sectorinvolvement in tourismoperations. At present,the Government-financedBarbados Board of Tourism,does not appearto satisfy the tourismoperators in its effortsto marketBarbados as a favorite holidaydestination. Board spendingon administrationand managementis very high comparedto spendingon marketingand promotion. Therefore,the possibilityof allocatinga proportionof tourismrevenues to financethe Board shouldbe considered. The futureof the Government'sown tourism assets,the Hiltonhotel and Heywood'sresort, should also be settledas soon as possible. Recently,the Government'spolicy statement and budget- ary proposalsimplied that the need for public sectorsavings would include the possibledivestment of loss makinghotel propertiescurrently held throughthe BarbadosTourism Investment Corporation. However, there appearsto be a good case, at least in the short term, for the Government to hold on to some of these assetsas a sign of confidencein the country's main growthindustry at a time when the local market in hotel propertiesis depressed.

Manufacturing

2.14 There are some 200 mainly small-scale, locally-owned and managed manufacturing enterprisesin Barbados. Manufacturingaccounts for about 10X of GDP and 13% of total employment. In terms of value of sales,its most importantsub-sectors are food products,beverages and tobacco, garments,chemicals (soaps and detergents,insecticides, paints, etc.) and metal products(building materials and hardware). A number of offshore assemblyoperations, mainly US-owned and managed,have been set up. They assembleresistors, semi-conductors and other intermediategoods for the electronicsindustry, gloves and garmentsfor re-exportto the US. As noted earlier,the severe setbackexperienced in 1985 by the manufacturing enterprisescontributed to the disappointingperformance of the economyas a whole. While demandfrom the domesticmarket held up reasonablywell, the reductionin export ordersfrom regionalmarket, principally from - 12 -

Trinidadand Tobagoand Jamaica,caused widespread production cuts and a sharp fall in the sector'sexport earnings. The electronicsindustry, which is whollyexport-oriented, was hit even harderby the world-wide semi-conductorproduction glut. This was the prime reasonfor closureof the BarbadosIntel plant which had employedover 900 workers- the largest privateindustrial employer. The weak entrepreneurialdrive was another factor that contributedto the less than satisfactoryperformance of the manufacturingsector. The lack of administrativeand financialcontrol demonstratedby the small owner-managedenterprises has now resultedin a reluctanceby banks to financenew investmentprojects, Althoughrecent studiesbave shown that labor costs are not an overridingfactor where companieshave decidedto close or relocate,or where an alternative locationto Barbadoswas chosen,these costs are on the high side for the Caribbeanand will need to be more closelywatched. Apart from the funda- mentalquestion of what line of developmentstrategy the industrialsector shouldpursue, there is concernabout the problemsof marketing,the lack of entrepreneurialdrive, management skills, financial control, employment, labor costs,and variousaspects of the institutionalframework. These issutes,which have a dominantinfluence on the manufacturingsector in Barbados,are examinedin detail below.

2.15 Marketing: In 1985, Barbadosmoved from 25th to 18th place among the countriesexporting offshore assembly goods to the US under special trade regimes. Among the Caribbeanislands, Barbados came third in terms of assemblyexports after the DominicanRepublic and Haiti,and has the highestper capitaassembly export earnings. For Barbados,concessions under Article807 of the US Tariff Schedulehave been most consistently useful,while openingsprovided under the CaribbeanBasin Initiative(CBI) remainedunexploited. However, due to a generaldecline of the US market, the 1985 exportswere far below the 1984 total. Barbadoswas successfulin attractinga numberof isolatedassembly plants geared entirely to export marketsbut when these marketscnanged or foldeddue to circumstances whollybeyond Barbadian control, the operationshad to retrenchor close.

2.16 In spite of this, more effortsshould be made to widen the range of productsassembled in Barbados. The developmentstrategy pursued by BIDC will help promoteindustrial diversification among a selectionof industries,mainly in the US, potentiallyinterested in productionsharing operationsin Barbados. This should be complementedby the BDB programto find partnersfor, and to finance,joint venturesbetween local and foreign investors. The obviousadvantage of the joint ventureapproach to market- ing is that the foreignpartner has greateraccess to marketsabroad and newer technologieswhile the local partnerhas greaterexpertise in mobilizingdomestic resources. A combinationof these areas of expertise via a suitableequity participation generally produces a greaterimpact on exportsthan foreignand local firms operatingseparately. However, the developmentof the joint ventureapproach requires major effortsin terms of organizinginvestment seminars abroad to bring foreignand local part- ners together,more intensiveadvertising, compiling registers and profiles of local firms and streamliningthe investmentapproval process. Although it is not strictlyspeaking a part of manufacturingsector strategy, every encouragementshould also be given to furtherdiversification and expansion effortsfor existingexport-oriented service industries. This includes offshorebanking, US ForeignSales Corporations,insurance and trading companies,and data and word processingoperations. EnhancingBarbados' - 13 - marketingcapability is clearlyan area which calls for an expandedprogram of technicalassistance.

2.17 Entrepreneurship:Despite the many incentivesprovided by the BIOC, the commercialbanks and BDB, there has been littlegrowth of new domesticinvestment in industry,and littlesuccess in exportdevelopment on the part of domesticand CARICOM-orientedmanufacturing enterprises. The discouragingeffect of failures,or part-failures,such as the experiencesof the FurnitureTrading Company (FTC) have causeda negative attitudetowards new investments.This negativedemonstration effect has meant that interestin the manufacturingsector for exporthas mainlycome from outside. The demand for Bank creditby small-scalemanufacturing enterpriseshas also slowed,indicating a retrenchmentin what is consideredto be the seed-bedfor tomorrow'sindustry growth. But a key to industrygrowth is entrepreneurdevelopment. Following examples in other countries,as for example,the EntrepreneurshipDevelopment Institute of India,entrepreneurship could be fosteredthrough workshops, training programs,and financialincentives such as 100 loan financingof highly viableprojects. In the contextof effortscurrently being made to strengthenthe BDB loan portfoliomanagement, it might be possibleto providemore technicalassistance for projectpreparation pu-poses. Meanwhile,the Government'sindustrial investment assistance program should put more emphasison the promotionof enterpriseswith forwardand backward linkagessuch as agro-industries(e.g., food processing,Sea IslandCotton) and buildingmaterials (e.g., clay tiles,coral limestoneblocks).

2.18 ManagementSkills and FinancialControl: In terms of numbers, the industrialsector is dominatedby small owner-managedenterprises. The majoritylack administrativeand financialcontrol skills. The situation is not helped by the fact that many of them fall outsidethe corporation tax networkso that there is no perceivedneed for detailedaccounting practices. BIXAP is doing its best to disseminatemanagement techniques, and help variousother organizations,including BOB, organizeseminars. However,until there is a more generalawareness of the benefitsto be derivedfrom planningand financialcontrol of businessoperations, there is littlehope of improvementin the short term. One indirectway of forcingmanufacturers into betteraccounting and stock-keepingpractices would be to tightenincome tax collectionpractices. High administrative costsalso suggestthat there is room here for futureproduction cost controls.

2.19 LaborCosts: In manufacturing,as in the tourismsector, recent studiesshow that labor costs in Barbados,although high by CARICOM standards,were not the overridingfactors that influenceddecisions made to withdrawmanufacturing operations. However,if Barbadosis to be com- petitivein terms of export manufacturingand tourism,wage restraintwill be essential. Since the labor force is highlyunionized and the Barbados WorkersUnion has a long historyof collectivebargaining, it might be possibleto set up tripartitenegotiations between the Government,the unionsand employersin which wage adjustmentswould be agreedwith full knowledgeof all the politicaland economicimplications. The overallaim would be to substituteemployment and wage incomeobjectives for the tradi- tionalwage rate objective.

2.20 The IncentiveSystem: Investorshave hithertoperceived the stabilityin the levelof industrialincentives as a main advantagein planningof new ventures. It is, however,not clearwhether the structure - 14 - of industrialincentives is strongenough to addressspecific needs such as encouragingmanaufactured exports for extra-regionalmarkets, promoting agro-industryand helpingexpansion, restructuring, or technological improvementsin existingprivate sector enterprises. The Governmentshould thereforeconsider the need for a study of the overallsystem of incentives.Also, since other countriesin the CARICOMregion are intendingto initiatenegotiations on reformsof the CARICOMtariff and incentivesystem, it is timely that Barbadostakes steps to re-examineits tariffand incentivesystem.

Ariculture

2.21 Agricultureand fishingaccount for about 7% of GDP and for about 9% of employment.Within agriculture,sugar accountsfor about 44% of agriculturalvalue added. The major issuesin agriculturerelate to the rationalizationof the sugar industryand to the expansionand diversifica- tion of non-sugaragriculture. The sugar subsectorremains vital to Barbados'economy in the medium term, more so in the absenceof an alterna- tive large-scalecrop suitedto the local climate,soils and topography. But profitabilityin this subsectorhas steadilydeclined owing to both externaland internalfactors. The world price of sugar has declinedin recentyears to about US cents 5 per pound in 1985. The preferentialprice offeredby EEC (aroundUS cents 18 per pound) is now below the cost of sugar productionestimated at US cents 28 per pound. And internally,the main factorscontributing to the high cost of productionare the high cost of labor,overheads and management. While wage restraintis calledfor in this subsectoras well, there is some scope to improveproduction efficiency. The latterincludes (a) measuresto releasemarginal (low productivity)lands for pastureor other crops and (b) incentivesfor furtherreduction of extraneousmatter in sugar delivered,following the successachieved during the last two years,and for safeguardsagainst cane fires.

2.22 As regardsnon-sugar agriculture, Barbados is seekingto increase the varietyof crops and to raise production,both by expandingthe area plantedand by increasingyields. It is focusingon crops such as cotton, vegetables(e.g., tanju melon,green peppers,egg plant)and flowersfor which exportmarkets may be found and for which air cargo spaceis currentlyavailable. The developmentof importsubstitution crops such as onionsand peanuts,and of livestockand fisheriesfor the domesticmarkets is also being pursued. But, diversificationefforts have to overcomeboth productionand marketingconstraints. Natural constraints on production includeBarbados' poor and erosion-pronesoil and unevenlydistributed rainfall,while technicalconstraints include diseases problems in crops such as cotton,onions and white potatoes. Marketingwithin the countryis constrained by the fragmentednature of the marketingsystem and the recurring shortages and gluts in the market. Thus, the diversification effort calls for: (a) a major improvement in input supplies(particularly seed materials); (b) increased promotion of private sector leadershipin finding new markets in Europe and North America; (c) the formulation of an insurancescheme for new crops; (d) specialassistance schemes for live- stock and fisheries;and (e) educationand trainingof entrepreneurs engagedin agriculture.The proposedagricultural development project to be financedby the World Bank (see Annex I) seeks to assist this diversificationeffort. - 15 -

III. PUBLICSECTOR INVESTMENTPROGRAM

Pr?1resson PublicInvestment

3.01 Publicsector investment increased marginally to the equivalent of about 7% of GDP in 1985/86mainly as a resultof increasedactivity on on-goingexternally financed projects and the completionof a numberof projects. New projectssuffered delayed start-ups and thereforehad no major impacton capitalexpenditure. Within the last 18 months,eight projectsor about half of the major externallyfinanced projects in execu- tion were completedor were nearlycompleted. Severalprojects under the schoolbuilding program of the first World Bank educationloan were com- pleted. The HeywoodHoliday Village complex, also supportedby the World Bank, was finishedand it startedcommercial operations later in the year. Due to the importanceof tourismin the Barbadianeconomy, the runway rehabilitationof the internationalairport was executedearlier than scheduled. The third phase of water developmentwas also completed.

3.02 Severalimplementation problems continued to hamperprogress, particularlyin agriculture.Implementation of the IntegratedRural DevelopmentProject and the ScotlandDistrict Soil conservationproject, both with financialassistance from IB, have been affectedby the lack of trainedstaff and a slow decision-makingprocess. The recessionaffecting the manufacturingsector was also responsiblefor the slow executionof the third phase of the IndustrialEstates project and the low disbursementon the industrialcredit project. Sluggishdemand also dampenedexpansion of factoryspace. Similarly,financial problems of the touristsector inhibitednew lendingto financerefurbishing and consequentlyretarded progressin the GlobalCredit Program IV (AnnexI).

3.03 Delayedcompliance of conditionsfor disbursementsas well as specifictasks in the processof initiatingexternally financed projects were the main reasonsfor start-updelays in new projects. However,the BridgetownFishing Harbour's preliminary works were completedand the airport-westcoast highwaystarted.

The Medium-TermProgram

3.04 In view of the financialconstraints likely to prevailduring the next two years, the publicsector investment program (PSIP) has been signi- ficantlyreduced. The Government'sstrategy focuses on the completionof on-goingpriority projects, which have reacheda stage where they cannot vC halted becauseof their sunk costs and high cost of cancellation,and on the rephasingof implementationschedules over longertime periods. Over the medium-term,the PSIP would move out of physicalinfrastructure to more directlyproductive projects as reflectedin the technicalassistance shown in Annex I. The aim is to desiguprojects which will augmentand support the privatesector effort. But the scope and natureof the projectsneed to be carefullydefined in the projectpreparation process.

3.05 The PSIP for FY 1986/87and 1987/88therefore must be regardedas an interiminvestment program since a new 1988-93development plan is being preparedwith a well definedpublic investment program and its financing - 16 - requirements.Meanwhile, a numberof priorityprojects have been tenta- tivelyidentified subject to udjustmentsat a later date when the reassess- ment of prioritiesand externalfinancing requirements are to be finalized. These circumstancespreclude a properassessment of the PSIP. However,some observationscould be made on its size, compositionand its main thrust.

3.06 The sectoraldistribution of both on-goingand new projectsfor FY 1986/87- 1987/88is as follows.

Table 5: ExternallyFinanced Program, 1986/87 - 1987/88

BDS$ Million I

Economic Infrastructure Transportation 94.6 35.7 Coastal Conservation 1.0 0.4 Port 12.5 4.7

Social Infrastructure Health 36.7 13.9 Education 24.5 9.3 Housing 2.8

Directly Productive Agricultureand Fisheries 45.1 17.0 Energy 8.4 3.2

Other (Mostlycredit for industry and tourism) 34.5 13.0

TOTAL 264.6 100.0

Source: StatisticalAppendix, Table 5.7.

3.07 This sectoralallocation of investmentreflects the Government's strategyto concentrateon the executionof on-goingprojects. It also shows that the s4 ze of the investmentprogram has been reducedin tandem witt.the flow of externalproject-related financing. Ouring the current fiscalyear, centralgovernment capital expenditure has been cut from some B0$195million to about BUS$155million. Thereafterthe capitalexpendi- ture is to be reducedfurther to about BDS$120million with increasesof 10 per cent at most, duringsubsequent years. This is an area whichwarrants considerablecaution; if the privatesector investment response is slow, cuts in public investment in the short-term are likely to exacerbate an already contractionary situation.

3.08 As in previous years upgrading of infrastructure has received the highestpriority. The largestallocation has been made to the transportationsector. The constructionof the Airport- West Coast - 17 - highway, financed by IDB0,will provide a link-up of the major industrial estates with the airport. Highway maintenance and rehabilitation of primary roads will continue with the World Bank financing and a second phase will also be considered by this institution. IDB provided technical cooperation for the feasibility study of traffic managemnt in Bridgetown and for the pro-feasibility study of the coastal conservations, the former designed to alleviate the congested metropolitan area and the latter to halt and prevent erosion in the beaches. Both studies were completed and financingfor the projects is being sought.

3.09 The program also contains a set of projects designed to diversify productive activities and to help the balance of payments. Although the bulk of investment is concentrated in agriculture, manufacturing and tourism would also benefit through credit programs sought as part of the Government's incentive program to the private sector. Emphasis on agricul- tural diversification would take the form of further expansion of fisheries and vegetable production and livestock development. Success in these ventures would largely depend on addressing the sector issues discussed in Chapter II.

3.10 To complement human resource development, the Government is currently involved in the implementation of a program designed to enhance primaryas well as secondary education including vocational training and expansion of training facilities. Health care has also been a concern of the Government of Barbados. In addition to the upgrading and expansion of the queen Elizabeth Hospital and the Glebe Polyclinics, the investment program contains provisions for special health care facilities. Support to complement the sewerage facilities is also requested. The detailed drawings for the first phase of the South and West Coast, and the Greater Bridgetown sewerage system is scheduled to start in 1987. Adequate low-income housing is also to be developed.

Financing Public Sector Investment

3.11 The share of domestic financing of public investment averaged about 60 percent during the three years ending 1985/86. Given the tax-concessions provided by the recent budget, public savings are likely to be negative in the short term, in the absence of strong compensatory measures. The Government therefore, as noted earlier, would need to devise new revenue measures through taxes on consumption and strictly control current expenditure if balance is to be restored. Unless the overall fiscal deficit is kept within manageable limits, the claims for domestic financing (once the current state of liquidity tapers off) could pre-empt private investment, to which much importance is attached. The Government intends to restore fiscal balance in the short term.

3.12 Projections of public sector finances have been made on the assumption that measures to raise new revenues and to control expenditures would be implemented. Central Government current expenditures would then grow at a rate somewhat slower than that of current revenues. Expenditures and revenues are projected to grow at average annual rates of 2 percent and 3 percent, respectively, after 1987/88. The public sector deficit is thus projected to decline to about 1.0 percent of GDP in 1988/89. - 18 -

Table o: ConsolidatedPublic Sector Savingsand Irvestment (Z of GDP)

Budget Projections 1986/87 1987/86 1988/89

PublicSector Savings -2.0 -2.1 -1.0 General Government -1.9 -1.3 -0.3 of which: CentralGovernment -3.0 -1.2 -0.1 Non-FinancialPublic Enterprises -0.1 -0.8 -0.7

PublicSector Capital Expenditure 7.4 5.9 5.8

OverallDeficit -9.4 -8.0 -6.8

External Financing Requirements

3.13 Externalfinancing requirements have been projectedon the basis of existingcommitments for on-goingexternally financed projects and com- mitmentsfor the set of new projectscontained in the PSIP presentedin this report. The PSIP for 1986/88then amountsto $207.1million, of which $102.3million represents the externalfinancing requirements. Disburse- ments from existingcommitments would amountto about $84.3 million, leavinga financinggap of about $18 million.

3.14 Externalfinancing requirements for budgetarysupport are estimatedto increasesignificantly in the short term, owing to increasing fiscaldeficits, principally as a resultof the wide rangeof tax con- cessionsoffered by the July 1986 budget. Externalassistance for balance of payments/budgetarysupport for the period 1986/88is estimatedat around $100 million. Of this, $70 millionhas been identifiedfor 1986 and 1987, leavinga gap of $30 millionfor 1988. This financinggap, however,should be consideredas tentativesince the extentof externalborrowing for the budgetwould largelydepend on new revenuemeasures in 1988 and current expenditurecontrols.

Table 7: PublicSector Investment and Financing (US$ million)

1986 1987 1988 Total

1. PublicSector Investment 77.8 64.3 65.0 207.1 2. Local Contribution 43.3 30.0 31.5 104.8 3. External Financial Requirements 34.5 34.3 33.5 102.3 4. Disbursementsfrom Existing Commitments 31.5 26.8 26.0 84.3 5. FinancingGap (3 minus 4) 3.0 7.5 7.5 18.0 6. Balanceof Payments/Bud0et 44.0 26.0 30.0 100.0 7. Of which Unidentified - - 30.0 30.0 8. Total ExternalFinancing Gap (5 plus 7) 3.0 7.5 37.5 48.0 - 19 -

IV. MEDIUM-TERMPROSPECTS

EconomicOutlook

4.01 The short-and medium-termoutlook for Barbados'economy is governedby many factors. Apart from externalfactors and unpredictable weather,the evolutionof the economywould largelydepend on several factorssuch as the privatesector response to the presenttax incentives, recoveryfrom recentplant closures,the upgradingand marketingof the touristproduct and the size, compositionand new directionsof public inve-tment.Thus, projectionsof key economicvariables must be regarded as tentative. Subjectto this caveat,the economicoutlook in the short- and medium-termmay be sketchedas follows.

4.02 Based on January-June1986 performance,economic growth is likely to averagearound 3% in 1986, but turn negativeto around -1.5% in 1987 owing to the downturnin manufacturing.Thereafter, GDP growth could recoverover the medium-term,provided that: privatesector investment respondsfavorably to the tax incentivesoffered; measures to restore internationalcompetitiveness (discussed above) are implemented;and tourismgrows moderatelyin responseto improvedmarketing. The l1kely range of growthpossibilities are discussedbelow in terms of alternative growthscenarios.

Medium-TermScenarios

4.03 Two growth scenariosare presentedin this chapterto illustrate how the Barbadianeconomy might evolveover the next five years. The two scenariosdo not representeconomic forecasts, but ratherquantitative indicationsof the range withinwhich key economicvariables will probably lie, dependingupon the extentand speed with which the recommendationsin the previouschapter are adopted. The first scenario,i.e., ScenarioA, representsa recoveryfrom the presantslowdown and a weak responseto some of the policyinitiatives made by the Government. It is by no means a ofworstcase" scenario;external shocks or a poorerresponse to incentives or a combinationof these could well lead to an outcomeworse than that projectedby ScenarioA. In this scenarioGDP growthis projectedto recoverfrom -1.5% in 1987 to about 2% in per year from 1988 to 1991. The main underlyingassumptions here are (a) a weak responsein investment, risingfrom about 15.2% of GDP in 1985 to about 16.0.0of GOP in 1991; (b) slow recoveryin manufacturing;(c) slow progresson agriculturaldiversi- fication;and (d) growthin tourismaveraging about 2% per year from 1987.

4.04 ScenarioB, on the other hand, is a sowewhatmore optimisticone in which GDP growthwould recoverto about 3% per year in 1988 and 1989 and increasegradually to about 4% in 1991. The main policyassumptions are that:

(a) internationalcompetitiveness will be restoredvia measures to stimulateexport growth and investmentfor export production(para. 2.05); - 20 -

(b) the centralgovernment current account deficit will be eliminatedwithin the next two years so as to raise public savingsfor financingpublic investment; and that

(c) the key sectorissues highlighted in ChapterII will be addressedin the short-and medium-term.

In responseto these policyinitiatives, this scenarioassumes: a rise in investmentfrom 15.2%of GOP in 1985 to 18X of GDP in 1991;a faster recoveryin manufacturing;improved progress on agriculturaldiversifica- tion; and a moderate(2.5%) growth in tourism.

Balanceof PaymentsImplications

4.05 In ScenarioA, domesticexports are projectedto declineby about 12% in 1987 and recoverat around3% per year from 1988 to 1991. Tourism earningsare expectedto increaseat the rate of about 2% per year from 1987 to 1991. These increasescombined with low growthof imports(in line with low GDP growth)would help yield a small currentaccount surplus equivalentto about 1% of GDP in 1991. In ScenarioB, exportgrowth is projectedat around4.3% from 1988 to 1991, leadingto a currentaccount surplusequivalent to about 1.4% of GDP in 1991. Table 8 below sets out the main differencesbetween the two scenarios.

Table 8: SummaryBalance of PaymentsProjections (US$ million)

Projections Estim. ScenarioA ScenarioB 1986 1987 1991 1987 1991

DomesticExports INFS 605.4 612.7 807.3 612.7 840.3 RetainedImports INFS 660.4 643.2 792.8 643.2 816.5 CurrentAccount Balance -53.6 -29.0 22.1 -29.0 32.2 Net PublicCapital 64.4 56.6 -22.1 56.6 -32.2 ProJect-related(Gross) 24.7 30.7 35.4 30.7 35.4 of which:Uncommitted - 2.5 23.8 2.5 23.8 Other FinancingReq. 78.7 69.4 25.2 69.4 15.8 Amortization 39.0 43.4 82.8 43.4 83.4 ReserveChange -15.8 -32.6 -15.0 -32.6 -15.0

Source: StatisticalAppendix Table 3.8

Creditworthiness

4.06 Barbadoshas been a conservativeborrower hitherto, keeping foreignborrowing to a minimumand debt serviceratios in the range of 4% to 7% of exportearnings. But the debt servicopicture has begun to change rapidlyas a resultof a few large commercialloans contractedin recent years,up to end of 1985. - 21 -

4.07 In both scenarios,the debt serviceratio is projectedto rise very rapidlyfrom its 1985 base value of 8% to more than double this value in 1990. In Scenario A, it rises to a rate of 18% and in ScenarioB to 172, and declines thereafter. The peaks in debt service reflect the amortizationof the JapaneseYen Bond in 1990/91 and increased repayments in settlementof the recentlynegotiated Euro-dollar loan for balanceof payments/budgetarysupport. The debt to GDP ratio on the other hand peaks at around 27% in 1987 reflectingthe recentloan commitmentsup to that year. The risingdebt burdenalso points to the importanceof followinga more cautiousborrowing strategy in the short- and medium-term.External financingshould be channeledonly to projectswith significantgains in output and exportearnings. From a longer-termperspective, however, the debt serviceburden is projectedto be within manageablelimits and there is evidenceat presentthat the authoritieswill pursuea strategyto accelerateoutput and exports. In these circumstances,Barbados can be consideredcreditworthy for Bank lending. - 22 -

Annex I Page 1 of 4

BARBADOS

GOVERNHENT'SPROJECT AND TECHNICALASSISTANCE LISTS

This reportcontains a list of major ongoingprojects, a list of projectsfor which externalfinancing will be soughtduring the period 1986-68,and individualproject descriptions. The two lists containthe name of the project,the expectedlender(s), if any, the total cost, the externalfinancing required and the counterpartcontribution. Estimated costs are to be regardedas indicative. A list of requiredtechnical assistanceis also presented.

Data for these projectlists, which will be presentedat the CaribbeanGroup for Cooperationin EconomicDevelopment Meeting scheduled for January 1987,were providedby the BarbadosGovernment. Annex I - 23 - Page 2 of 4 BARBADOs MjZor Prolootn wlh Financing

Int. Amorti- Grace Counterpart total Eatornal Financing Rate zation Poriod Financing Projects Cost Amount Source S (years) (years) Amount S

Agriculture Springhall Land Lease 2.25 0.800 Coo 4 15 S 1.45 64 Scotand District Soil Conservation 5.80 4.50 Ice 9.25 20 4 1.30 22 Bridgetown Fishing Port 12.30 8.00 10B 4.501 2 15.5 8.5 4.30 35 Poultry Production (Broilor/Breeder) 3.82 2.60 EOF S 5 4 1.30 34 Back River 1.25 1.05 EOF 1 40 10 0.20 16

Industry industrial Credit 12.50 IO.SO IBRO 8.25 12 3 2.00 16 Global Credit IV 10.00 6.00 IOB VerIable 15 4 4.00 40

Transport Airport West Coast Hwy. 44.50 24.50 IDB 9.25 15 4 20.00 45 Access Road to Cement Plant 15.00 9.00 CDB 10.25 15 5 6.00 40 Road Maintonanco and Rehabilitation 20.23 11.00 IBRO Variable 12 3 9.23 46

Energy Petroleum Exploration & Osvelopment I (BNOC) 36.00 13.80 CIDA, Von. 0; 2 40; 13 10; 5 22.20 62

Port Contalner Crane 7.50 3.75 EOF 5.6 15 4 3.75 50

Edusation Student Revolving Fund 1i 3,00 2.00 IDB 2 25 9.5 1.00 33 Education Project 11 45.80 10.00 IBRO Varlable 15 3 16.8 37 19.00 lOB Variable 25 5

Housing Housing Guaranteo Prog. 10.00 10.00 USAIO 11.65 25 5 0.00 0

Health Queen Elizabeth Hosp. 18.00 11.70 10B Varlable;2 36; 26 9;5 6.30 35 Expanslon and Globe Polyclinic

Source: Economic Affairs Division and Mission Estimates. -24 - Annex I Page 3 of 4 BARBADOS:Lajor Projectsfor which Financing is Keguirea, 1700I -1/IlS (US4 million)

Counter- Total £xt. Finan. part Finan. Project Cost Amount Source Amount

Agriculture Water ResourcesDevelopment for Irrigation 5.00 3.50 IDS 1.50 30 IntegratedLivestock Production 4.50 3.U0 IDB 1.50 33 CentralAgronomic Research Lab. 3.00 1.95 SDF 1.05 35 AgricultureDevelopment Credit b.00 4.00 IBKD *U.O 30

Industry IndusitriialCredit II 12.00 10.00 IBKD 2.00 17 IndustrialStates 10.82 b.49 IDB 4.33 40

Tourism CoastalConservation 35.00 21.00 IDB 14.00 40

Energy NaturalGas Pipeline 4.50 3.75 CIDA 0.75 17

Transportation BridgetownRoad Improvement and TrafficManagement 40.UO 24.0U 1DB 1b.00 40 Improvementof PublicTransp. 5.00 3.00 Unknown 2.00 40

Health South,West Coast Sewerage 24.70 16.80 IDB 7.90 32 New PsychiatricHospital b.50 b.00 Unknown 3.50 29 New GeriatricHospital 3.50 2.25 Unknown 1.50 36

tousing Urban Low IncomeMousing 12.20 7.20 IuR0 5.00 41 Redevelopmentof GraemeHall Area 5.00 3.25 Unknown 1.75 35

Source: EconomicAffairs Division and MissionEstimates. -25 Annex I Page 4 of 4

BKMARAOS

Technical Assistance Requirements for Major Projects

The following projects require technical assistance for preparation of project documentation and/or feasibility studies:

Estimated Cost (US$sUUs)

Agriculture Diversification Development Credit 3,000.0 Water Resources Development for Irrigation ib*U Municipal Solid Waste 50.0 Scotland District Roads Development 50.U Road Maintenance and Rehabilitation II 50*0 Multipurpose Food Processing Plant b3.0

The following non-project specific technical assistance schemes are also required:

Potato Development and Research 228.0 StrengtheningFishing Cooperatives Capability and Training 150.0 Fisheries Development (Skeete's bay and Consett hay) 1,235.8 Production and Exportation of Cut Flowers and Foliage / W0.0 Development of Small Livestock Production Systems b5.0 Agricultural Marketing 317.7 Export Promotion 750.0 Irrigation Engineering iUU.0 Investigation and Resuscitation of the Sea Egg Fishery 45.5 Food Technology 152.5 Improved Production Techniques for Garment Industry 49.0 Establishing an Industrial Repair and Maintenance Unit 968.0 Updating of Barbados Tourism Development Plan 105.5 Manpower Planning Information bb.7 Strengthening of Statistical Services 64.0 National Role of the Service Sector in the Economic Development of Barbados 140.0 Postal Services and Telecommunications 180.0 Establi6hment of Securities Exchange Systems 75!.U Family Life Education and Family Planning Services 205.0 Upgrading the Technical Capabilities for Environment in the Ministry of Health b5.0 Social Services Textbook 113.4 Improvement of the National Library 76.9 Production Workshop for the Disabled b1.6 Correcting of Reading Difficulties 51.0 Creation and Creativity and Teaching of Science & Technology 125.0 Transfer and Adaptation of Technological Development 24.7 Upgrading the Operations of the Government Printing Department b7.0 Management and Development of the Graeme hall a1.

Source: Economic Affairs Division and Mission Estimates. - 26 - STATISTICALAPPENDIX

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Table

I. POPULATIONAND LABOR FORCE

1.1 PopulationTrends, 1976-85 1.2 Labor Force,Employment and Unemployment,1976-85 1.3 EmployedLabor Force by Industry,April-June 1984 and 1985

II. NATIONALACCOUNTS

2.1 SectoralOrigin of Gross DomesticProduct at CurrentPrices, 1976-85 2.2 SectoralOrigin of Gross DomesticProduct at ConstantPrices, 1974-85 2.3 Expenditureon Gross DomesticProduct at CurrentPrices, 1976-85 2.4 Actualand ProjectedResources and Use of Resources, 1985-90

I1, BALANCEOF PAYMENTS

3.1 Balanceof Payments,1976-85 3.2 MerchandiseExports (f.o.b.) by Major Commodities,1976-85 3.3 MerchandiseImports (c.i.f.) by End Use Category,1976-85 3.4 Directionof Trade, 1976-85 3.5 MerchandiseExports (f.o.b.) to CARICOMand Other Commonwealth CaribbeanCountries, 1976-85 3.6 MeichandiseImports (c.i.f.) from CARICOMand Other Commonwealth CaribbeanCountries, 1976-85 3.7 OfficialInternational Reserves, 1976-85 3.8 Actual and ProjectedBalance of Payments,1985-90

IV. EXTERNALDEBT

4.1 ExternalPublic Debt Operations,1979-85

V. PUBLICFINANCES

5.1 CentralGovernment Finances, 1977/78-1985/86 5.2 CentralGovernment Revenues, 1977/78-1985/86 5.3 CentralGovernment Expenditures by EconomicClassifications, 1977/78-1985/86 - 27 -

STATISTICAL APPkNDIX

TA1LJ,OF CONTENTS (Continued)

Table

V. PUBLIC FINAiCLS (Continued)

5.4 Central Government Capital Expenditures by hconomic Classifications, 1977/77-19b5/bb j.5 Central uovernment Transfers, 1977/70-1965/8b 5.6 Consolidated Public Sector Finnancee, 1977/76-1985-bb 5.7 Public Sector Investment Program, kxternally Financed Projects, 1964/85-1967/66 -b.b Public Sector Investment and Financing, 19b4/b)-19b7/8b

Vi. 3Aq&1h1bbYSThM h.1 St2mary Accounts of tne banking System, 1Y70-85 b.2 bummary Accounts of tne Monetary Authorities, 197b-85 b.3 Summary Accounts of the Commercial banks, 197b=65 b.4 Detailed Accounts of the Trust Companies, 197b-65 t.5 Commercial banKs Selected Interest Rates, 1966-d!)

Vii. kKib^cS

7.1 Ketail Price Index, 1979-05 7.2 Wage Kates in belected Sectors, i977-bJ

VlIl. SEkCTi)U SECTUIAL STATISTICS

-b.1 Production of Selected Agricultural Commodities, 1977-b!5 s^2 Sugar Statistics, 1977-b5 b.3 Production of Selected Manufactured Goods, i977-85 b.4 Manufacturing Production Indices, 1975-b6 ts.5 belected Industrial kxports by uestination, Y1bi-b3 ts.b Water Services, 1977-85 b.7 Trade Data for dUb/8U7/USP/C8ITransactions with U.b.A.

IX. TOURISM

9.1 Tourism Statistics, 1979-b5 9.2 Visitor Arrivals by Country of Residence, 1977-d5 9.3 Average Length of stay of (iuestsby Type of Accommodation, 1977-85 9.4 Percentage bed Uccupancy by Type of Accommodation, 197b-b$5 - 28 -

Table 1.1 BARBADOS- POPULATIONTRENDS, 1977 - 05

1977 1970 1979 1900 1901 1962 1993 1984 1985

(in thousands)

Population(beg. of period)*I 244.7 247.5 248.2 248.3 249.4 250.4 251.2 252.0 252.5 Naturalincrease 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.2 Births 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.3 Deaths 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.1 Not migration -1.4 -1.5 -1.4 -1.53 1.3 -1.9 -1.* -1.9 -1.7 Population (end of period) 247.5 240.2 240.0 249.4 250.4 251.2 252.0 252.5 253.0

(as X of populationat the beginningof the year) Rate of natural increase 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 Birth rate 1.7 t.7 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 l.a 1.7 1.7 Death rate 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.0 0.9 0.8 Rate of not uigration -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.0 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7

Rate of population increase 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 (end of year)

ft ------aa…a…------ft ------a/ Estimated population in census of May 12,1990 was 249,042. Sources Barbados Statistical Service. - 29 -

Table 1.21 BARBADOS- LABORFORCE, ENPLOYHENT, ND UNEMPLOYNENT,1976-B5a/ (in thousands)

1976 1977 1918 1979 1980 1981 1902 1983 1984 1985 AdultPopulation b/ 163.5 166.0 167.9 170.5 172.4 173.6 174.7 175.9 176.9 177.7 Hale 74.9 76.2 77.3 79.7 79.7 80.3 80.8 81.3 81.0 82.2 Female 99.6 09.8 90.6 91.8 92.7 93.3 93.9 94.6 95.1 95.5 Labor Force 104.0 103.4 101.3 100.8 113.3 112.2 112.7 113.5 112.3 113.2 lale 57.6 57.7 57.1 59.5 61.4 61.9 61.3 61.4 61.1 60.5 Female 46.4 45.7 44.2 49.3 51.9 50.3 51.4 52.1 51.2 52.7

Total Employed 87.7 87.2 97.5 94.8 99.4 100.2 97.3 97.0 93.1 92.1 "al, 50.6 51.6 50.7 54.4 56.2 57.4 55.1 54.6 53.2 52.0 Fesale 37.1 35.6 36.9 40.4 43.2 42.0 42.2 42.4 39.9 40.1

Total Unemployed 16.3 16.2 13.8 14.0 13.9 12.0 15.4 16.5 19.2 21.1 Hale 7.0 6.1 6.4 5.1 5.2 4.5 6.2 6.8 7.9 8.6 Female 9.3 10.1 7.4 9.9 8.7 7.5 9.2 9.8 11.3 12.6

(as % of adult population) LaborForce cl 63.6 62.3 60.3 63.9 65.7 64.6 64.5 64.5 63.5 63.7 Hale 35.2 34.8 34.0 34.9 35.6 35.7 35.1 34.9 34.5 34.0 Feoale 28.4 27.5 26.3 29.9 30.1 29.0 29.4 29.6 29.9 29.7

(as% of labor force) Unemploymentd/ 15.7 15.7 13.6 12.9 12.3 10.7 13.7 14.5 17.1 18.6 "ale 6.7 5.9 6.3 4.7 4.6 4.0 5.5 6.0 7.0 7.6 Female 8.9 9.8 7.3 8.2 7.7 6.7 9.2 0.6 10.1 11.1 ------…---- a/BOsed on the 1990population cesus and quarterlyor half yearlylabor force survey estimates.Results of the 1980 censusare used to estimatethe proportionof adult populationin inter-censusyears. bl Persons15 yearsof age and over. c/ In relationto the adultpopulation. d/ In relationto the laborforcel unemployed persons comprise those actively seeking work withina throe-monthperiod prior to the date of interview. n/ Firstquarter data.

SourcetBarbados Statistical Service. - 30 -

Table 1.31 BARBADOS- EMPLOYEDLABOUR FORCE BY INDUSTRY,1984 and 1965*I _,_____.__ ('000 Persons) ------.------.------.--.---.-..- ,.------__------__------,------BOTHSEXES MALE FEMALE

1964 1985 1984 1985 1984 1995 _____------______Jan.-Apr.- Jan.- Apr.- Jan.- Apr.- Jan.- Apr.- Jan.- Apr.- Jan.- Apr.- March June March June March June March June March Jun2 March June

Agriculture& Fishing 10.1 8.6 8.8 9.4 6.0 5.3 5.0 5.8 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.6

Manufacturing 13.0 11.9 13.0 11.3 5.2 5.5 6.4 5.4 7.8 6.4 6.6 5.9

Electricity,Bas & Water 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.8 2.0 t 9 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1

Construction& Quarrying 6.2 8.1 6.5 7.4 5.8 0.0 6.3 7.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1

DistributiveTrades, Restaurants& Hotels 20.1 19.2 22.5 19.5 9.6 9.7 10.6 8.7 10.5 9.5 11.9 10.8

Transport& Comeunication5.2 4.6 4.6 5.3 4.0 3.6 3.4 4.2 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.1 FinancialInstitutions & Insurance 3.8 2.7 4.0 2.6 1.8 1.1 1.7 1.2 2.0 1.6 2.3 1.4

Servicesb/ 35.0 33.9 33.9 31.5 19.4 17.2 16.9 15.7 15.6 16.6 17.0 15.8

TOTALEMPLOYED 95.4 90.9 95.5 89.0 54.3 52.2 53.1 50.2 41.1 36.6 42.4 39.8 a/ Based on the continuoushousehold sample survey. b/ Includesgovernment and others.

Sources BarbadosStatistical Service. - 31 -

Table2.1. BARBADOS - SECTORALORIGIN OF 8ROB8DONESTIC PRODUCT AT CURRENTPRICES, 1976-35 (00Ssillion) ------_------_.------._------__------._-_------Revitsed------Prol. 1976 1977 1970 1979 1980 1981 1982 1993 t984 1985 ------.-- _-_------_------_--_------___-__----__-_------__ Sugar 40.1 54.7 51.7 64.0 96.0 69.9 56.2 57.0 59.0 70.3

Other Agric. and Fishing 28.7 37.1 40.0 45.9 56.2 59.1 65.8 76.6 80.2 89.3

Miningand Quarrying 2.3 4.4 6.9 9.3 11.5 13.1 16.1 16.3 29.4 44.0 Manufacturing 94.8 102.6 112.4 136.4 169.0 189.7 205.5 238.7 264.1 231.7 Electricityand Water 11.2 14.1 15.7 19.3 33.1 38.6 44.7 52.9 69.0 74.7 Construction 55.6 60.1 75.1 98.1 119.2 138.3 122.1 132.5 130.0 117.9 Wholesaleand RetailTrade 165.2 192.0 204.8 259.4 319.0 369.8 398.0 379.5 412.3 451.0

Touriss 65.5 87.7 109.7 144.0 182.9 206.5 181.1 196.5 206.8 214.0 Transport,Storage and Communications 55.9 60.1 64.2 70.1 86.9 113.0 134.8 154.1 171.0 185.0 Business& GeneralService 142.9 145.1 153.4 101.1 192.7 279.6 326.9 339.8 356.6 387.4 SovernsentServices 127.9 142.2 150.6 179.6 218.2 229.7 233.0 264.3 295.5 344.0 GDP at FactorCost 789.0 890.1 984.51196.1 1493.9 1706.2 1784.2 1898.9 2072.8 2209.9 Net IndirectTax** 95.4 103.5 127.6 152.2 194.7 199.4 205.8 213.7 228.2 232.0 SDP at MarketPrices 973.4 993.61112.1 1349.4 1679.5 1904.6 1990.0 2112.7 2301.0 2441.8

SourcessBarbados Statistical Service; Central Bank. - 32 -

Table 2.2s SARBADO9- SECTORALORI8IN OF GROSS DONESTICPRODUCT AT CON9TANTPRICEB, 1974-85

(1974 8Dt million) --. _------,.------__.--_------__------.------Rovised------Prol. 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1961 1992 1963 1984 1985 ------,------__------__------.---_--- Sugar 43.6 51.1 43.0 46.5 57.6 41*6 38.0 36.3 42.6 42.5

Other Agric. and Fishing 27.1 21.3 29.4 29.8 25.0 24.8 29.9 33.1 33.4 33.1

Mining and Quarrying 2.8 2.4 3.5 3.6 4.3 3.9 4.0 4.9 6.9 7.5

Nanufacturing 91.0 79.5 81.4 92.8 94.6 91.4 86.5 99.7 90.4 61.8

Electricity and Water 10.6 12.3 14.2 15.9 16.9 16.5 16.8 19.5 20.4 21.4

Construction 49.9 43.1 46.3 52.7 56.4 59.1 51.7 51.2 51.7 53.3

Wholesale and Retail Trade 122.2 124.6 129.5 142.0 156.6 153.2 145.5 141.2 146U. 151.2

Tourism 57.9 77.1 96.3 107.0 111.0 103.6 69.1 67.3 93.4 90.6

Transport, Storage & cosou 44.4 45.5 46.6 49.3 49.7 51.9 53.5 54.3 55.4 56.0

Business and Seneral 6ervi 119.3 121.3 123.0 126.1 126.1 130.3 133.5 134.1 135.4 137.1

Government Services 97.2 101.1 109.2 102.0 102.0 104.0 100.6 100.8 101.3 105.4

9DP at factor cost 655.4 679.3 712.4 769.6 902.3 796.9 749.2 751.4 777.6 779.9

Net Indirect Tanes 71.0 79.0 92.3 97.9 105.3 91.5 86.3 84.6 85.6 81.9

GOP at Narket Prices 726.4 758.3 804.7 966.4 907.6 976.4 934.5 936.0 963.2 861.8

Real Sroeth 4.4 3.6 4.9 7.9 4.4 -1.9 -4.9 0.4 3.5 0.3 SOP Deflator (1974a 100) 120.2 131.0 138.2 155.6 184.9 216.9 239.5 252.7 266.6 293.3

Sourcesi Barbados Statistical Servicel Central Bank. - 33 -

Table 2.3i BARBADOS- EXPENDITUREON GROSS DONESTICPRODUCT AT CURRENTPRICES, 1976-85

(BBS million)

------Revised------Prel. 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1993 1984 1985 a______-______a__ ------a------a------a------a-- __ ------a------Consumption 771.4 892.9 916.5 1113.81381.4 1605.8 1657.7 1812.1 1912.3 2053.0 Private 620.0 720.8 726.8 903.5 1089.01284.6 1328.71466.0 1520.9 1623.0 Bovernment 151.4 172.1 199.7 210.3 292.4 321.2 329.0 346.1 391.4 430.0 Gross fixed capital formation 235.9 194.1 254.5 317.2 424.3 525.0 450.5 421.2 373.9 371.8

ResourceBalance -133.9 -93.4 -59.9 -82.7 -127.2-226.2 -118.2 -120.6 14.9 17.0 Exports,SNFS 425.0 556.0 674.5 915.1 1112.51130.8 1221.3 1317.61556.0 1451.4 Imports,8NFS 558.9 649.4 733.4 997.8 1239.71357.0 1339.5 1438.2 1541.2 1434.4

SDP at M.p. 973.4 993.6 1112.1 1349.4 1678.5 1904.6 1990.0 2112.7 2301.0 2441.8 ______a------a------Net Factor Income 4.4 -3.7 3.3 -3.1 4.7 0.0 -5.2 -23.4 -21.2 -20.4

GNP at m.p. 877.8 999.9 1115.41345.3 1683.2 1904.6 1984.9 2089.3 2279.8 2421.4

DomesticSavings 102.0 100.7 195.6 234.6 297.1 298.8 332.3 300.6 398.7 389.8

Net Factor Income 4.4 -3.7 3.3 -3.1 4.7 0.0 -5.2 -23.4 -21.2 -20.4 PrivateTransfers 25.6 28.5 32.8 37.9 47.7 54.1 40.9 41.4 41.4 37.9

NationalSavings 132.0 125.6 231.6 269.3 349.5 352.9 367.9 318.6 408.9 406.2

(as % of GDP)

Consumption 89.3 89.9 82.4 82.6 82.3 84.3 93.3 85.8 93.1 84.1 Private 71.0 72.5 65.4 67.0 64.9 67.4 66.0 69.4 66.1 66.5 Sovernment 17.3 17.3 17.1 15.6 17.4 16.9 16.5 16.4 17.0 17.6

Gross fixed capital formation 27.0 19.b 22.9 23.5 25.3 27.6 22.6 19.9 16.2 15.2

ResourceBalance 48.7 56.0 60.6 67.9 66.3 59.4 61.4 62.4 67.6 59.4 Exports,6NFS Imports,BNFS 64.0 65.4 65.9 74.0 73.9 71.2 67.3 68.1 67.0 58.7

GDP at M.p. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 ______a _____ a_____a______------

a------__------__------SourcesiBarbados Statistical Bervicel Central Bank and missionestimates. - 34 -

Table 2.4a BARBADOS- ACTUALAND PROJECTEDUSE OF RESOURCES(CASE A), 1994-91 (BDSSmillion at 1985 prices)

Prel. P R O J E C T E D

1985 1986 1997 1988 1989 1990 1991

GDP at marketpricee 2442 .2515 2477 2527 2577 2629 2662 Terms of Trade Adjustment 0 1 53 85 140 176 214 230 6AY at sarketprices 2442 2569 2563 2666 2753 2843 2912

ResourceBalance -1; 99 53 10 -19 -38 -23 Imports,9NFS 1223 1185 1122 1161 1202 1240 1290 Exports(capacity to import) -1240 -1086 -1069 -1152 -1220 -1278 -1304

Total Resources 2425 2666 2616 2676 2735 2805 2888

Fixed investment 385 377 396 404 425 434 456 Public 116 113 119 121 128 130 137 Private 269 264 277 293 298 304 319

Consumption 2040 2289 2220 2272 2309 2371 2432

(as X of 6DP)

GDP at marketprices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Terms of Trade Adjustment 0.0 2.1 3.4 5.5 6.8 8.1 8.6 ODY at marketprices 100.0 102.1 103.4 105.5 106.8 108.1 108.6

ResourceBalance -0.7 3.9 2.1 0.4 -0.7 -1.4 -0.9 Imports,GNFS 50.1 47.1 45.3 46.0 46.6 47.2 47.7 Exports(capacity to import) -50.8 -43.2 -43.2 -45.6 -47.3 -48.6 -48.6

Total Resources 99.3 106.0 105.6 105.9 106.1 106.7 107.7

Fixed investment 15.8 15.0 16.0 16.0 16.5 16.5 17.0 Public 4.7 4.5 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.1 Private 11.0 10.5 11.2 11.2 11.6 11.6 11.9

Consumption 83.5 91.0 89.6 89.9 99.6 90.2 90.7 memo items:

Exportprice index 100.00 117.14 124.56 132.17 137.54 143.31 150.40 Importprice index 100.00 111.46 114.61 116.15 117.73 119.36 123.86 Teros of trade index 100.00 105.10 108.68 113.79 116.93 120.07 121.43

6DP growth . 3.00 -1.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00

SourcesiBarbados Statistical Service; and missionestimates. - 35 -

Table 2.4: BARBADOS - ACTUAL AND PROJECTED USE OF RESOURCES (CASE B), 1984-91

(BDSS million at 1985 prices)

Prel. P R O J E C T E D

1985 1996 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991

6DP at market prices 2442 2515 2477 2552 2628 2720 2829 Teres of Trade Adjustment 0 53 85 131 180 221 242 BDY at market prices 2442 2568 2563 2682 2808 2942 3071

Resource Balance -17 99 53 25 -27 -51 -39 Imports, ONFS 1223 1185 ;122 1168 1215 1264 1319 Exports (capacityto import) -1240 -1086 -1069 -1143 -1242 -1315 -1357

Total Resources 2425 2666 2616 2707 2781 2890 3032

Fixed investment 385 377 396 434 447 476 495 Public 116 113 119 130 134 143 149 Private 269 264 277 304 313 333 347

Consumption 2040 2289 2220 2273 2334 2414 2537

(as X of 6DP)

GOP at market prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Terms of Trade Adjustment 0.0 2.1 3.4 5.1 6.8 8.1 8.5 SOY at market prices 100.0 102.1 103.4 105.1 106.8 108.1 108.5

Resource Balance -0.7 3.9 2.1 1.0 -1.0 -1.9 -1.4 Imports, GNFS 50.1 47.1 45.3 45.8 46.2 46.5 46.6 Exports (capacity to import) -50.8 -43.2 -43.2 -44.8 -47.3 -48.4 -48.0

Total Resources 99.3 106.0 105.6 106.1 105.8 106.3 107.2

Fixed investment 15.8 15.0 16.0 17.0 17.0 17.5 17.5 Public 4.7 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.3 Private 11.0 10.5 11.2 11.9 11.9 12.3 12.3

Consumption 83.5 91.0 89.6 89.1 88.8 88.8 69.7

Memo itemss

Export price index 100.00 117.14 124.56 131.15 137.66 143.50 150.69 Import price index 100.00 111.46 114.61 116.15 117.73 119.35 123.84 Terms of trade index 100.00 105.10 108.68 112.91 116.93 120.24 121.69

GOP growth . 3.00 -1.50 3.00 3.00 3.50 4.00

Sources: Barbados Statistical Servicel an.'mission estimates. - 36 -

Table 3.1i BARBADOS- BALANCEOF PAYNENT8,1976 - 85 (UBSGillion) ------C------Revised----- Prel. 1976 1977 1978 1979 1990 1981 1902 1983 1984 1905 ----- _------_------__------_------_____-----__------_-- Exportsof Goods and NFS 212.5 276.0 337.2 457.6 554.2 565.4 410.4 450.6 770.0 725.7 Goods 84.7 109.9 124.0 155.9 229.6 193.0 250.2 322.1 393.2 353.9 Sugar and molass*s 28.1 28.2 24.9 32.5 40.7 29.9 34.4 22.4 32.0 28.9 Other dosesticexports 39.6 47.3 46.3 03.0 107.9 110.6 151.9 232.0 259.0 219.3 DOP adjustmenta/ 2.9 7.9 1.0 4.0 1.2 -2.5 -0.5 -1.0 -0.4 0.1 Re-exports 17.1 24.5 31.8 35.4 59.0 47.0 72.4 67.9 101.8 105.6 Nonfactorservices 125.9 149.1 211.2 301.4 327.4 372.4 352.4 334.7 394.8 371.9 Travel (gross) 83.4 111.5 138.4 207.9 253.7 244.1 254.0 254.9 287.6 275.8 Other 42.5 54.4 72.6 93.7 73.7 109.3 97.4 01.8 97.2 96.0

Importsof Goods and NFS 279.5 324.7 344.7 498.9 619.9 679.5 449.8 719.1 770.6 717.2 Goods 236.7 278.1 309.9 425.4 524.4 575.5 553.7 624.6 442.2 610.9 Retained 219.6 251.6 277.0 309.8 445.5 528.5 401.3 554.7 540.4 507.8 For re-exports 17.1 24.5 31.9 35.4 59.0 47.0 72.4 67.9 101.9 105.4 Nonfactorservices 42.8 44.4 57.9 73.5 95.3 103.0 116.0 94.5 IOC.4 104.3

ResourceBalance -67.0 -44.7 -29.4 -41.3 -43.4 -113.1 -59.1 -40.3 7.4 0.5 ------…______------__. _ ------

Net Factorservices 2.2 -1.8 1.4 -1.4 2.3 0.0 -2.4 -11.7 -10.4 -10.2 Intereston NLT publicdebt -2.0 -2.0 -3.2 -5.0 -6.4 -9.7 -14.3 -17.1 -15.3 -19.7 Other factorservices 4.2 0.2 4.9 3.4 8.7 9.7 11.7 5.4 4.7 9.5

CurrentTransfers 12.8 14.3 14.4 18.9 23.9 27.1 20.4 20.7 20.7 19.9

CurrentAccount Balance -52.0 -34.3 -11.4 -24.0 -37.4 -94.0 -41.3 -51.3 17.5 17.2

Net PublicCapital 5.9 19.4 16.5 9.8 9.3 50.0 30.9 59.9 24.1 36.9

Gross disbursementsb/ 7.8 24.0 19.7 12.9 19.3 45.3 33.9 49.5 40.9 72.1 Project-related 7.9 24.8 9.5 12.1 17.2 37.9 19.2 56.1 32.0 51.0 CDF type 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 2.1 .. 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other c/ 0.0 0.0 10.0 - - 27.4 11.7 13.4 9.9 21.1 Grants 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.9 1.3 Officialtransfers (not) -0.1 1.4 0.4 3.1 -2.3 -9.0 2.8 0.2 -4.0 -13.3 Amortization 1.0 7.1 4.4 4.9 9.7 7.4 7.2 11.0 12.6 23.2

SDR Allocations 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PrivateCapital (net) d/ 29.1 5.4 17.2 21.4 45.7 9.4 2.0 -1.1 -51.6 -39.7 Not ForeignAssets Change 18.0 9.1 -22.3 -9.6 -19.9 24.1 4.3 -7.5 10.0 -14.4 1- a increase)

NemorandumItem

INF Drawings(not) - 7.6 - - -5.5 -2.1 25.2 15.7 7.6 0.3 …------__------__------a/ Sugarvaluation adjustment and other balanceof paymentsadjustments. b/ IncludesCentral Bank medium-termborrowing. c/ 1979 data representsBOP supportloans obtained from privatefinancial institutions. d/ Includeserrors and omissions.

SourcestBarbados Statistical Officel Central Bankl Ministryof Financeland missionestimates. - 37 -

Table 3.2i BARBADOS- MERCHANDISEEXPORTS (F.O.3.) BY MAJORCONNODITIES, 1976 - 95 (DSD.illion) …---_------_------_------.------_------_--__------_----__-----.------1976 1977 1978 1979 1900 1981 1982 1983 1984 1905 …-----,---_------_---__------_------A. Total Domestic Exports a/ 133.4 151.0 186.6 235.4 337.2 297.0 372.5 510.4 593.7 496.5

Primary Products 63.4 67.4 U6.4 78.9 135.4 79.3 94.3 62.2 92.2 74.0

Sugar 46.9 50.4 47.0 58.0 109.4 51.5 61.9 37.6 57.3 50.3 Molasses 9.3 5.8 6.7 6.9 11.9 9.3 6.9 7.1 8.4 7.6 Other 7.2 11.0 12.7 14.0 14.1 19.5 15.5 17.5 16.5 16.1

ManufacturedProducts 70.0 83.6 120.2 156.5 201.8 219.7 289.2 448.2 501.5 422.5

Rum 4.4 5.7 6.0 2.6 3.5 4.1 5.5 5.0 6.5 8.0 Clothing 30.6 37.2 40.6 45.9 49.1 52.2 65.6 70.4 64.0 45.1 Choeicals 5.9 5.6 9.3 15.2 21.7 24.2 26.3 27.2 25.9 21.1 ElectricalComponents 13.8 19.3 37.9 45.1 63.3 77.3 121.7 266.3 335.9 304.2 Margarineand Lard 3.1 3.7 5.4 4.3 6.1 4.5 3.9 4.1 4.6 2.8 SportsEquipment - - 1.9 8.3 10.3 9.2 0.3 - 0.2 0.2 Others 12.2 13.1 19.1 35.1 47.8 49.2 65.0 75.2 63.6 41.1

D. Re-exports 40.1 53.0 63.6 71.3 119.1 94.0 144.9 135.0 203.7 211.3

Petroloum& Productsb/ 21.5 35.9 38.7 26.7 54.1 46.5 94.8 94.4 146.0 169.7 Other 19.6 17.1 24.9 44.6 64.0 47.5 50.1 41.4 57.7 42.6

C. TotalExports 173.5 204.0 250.2 306.7 455.3 391.0 517.4 646.2 787.4 707.9

a/ Visibletrade. b/ 1977 and 1978 differsfrom officialfigures due to a tieingadjustment of 90*11.1million of storesand bunkersre-exported in 1977,but reportedin 1978.

SourcesiAnnual Overseas Trade Reports;Statistical Service. - 38 -

Table3.3: BARBADOS- MERCHANDISEIMPORTS (C.t.F.) BY END USE CATESORY,1976 - 85 (DD$ million) ------,------_-.__------,-__------Prol. 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1901 1982 1983 1984 1985

ConsuserGoods 199.5 212.3 243.3 299.9 365.7 372.8 326.8 359.4 351.0 353.8

Non-durable 144.3 161.1 188.3 223.3 261.2 271.4 255.4 263.4 285.8 259.1 Food and beverages 99.2 104.8 124.9 140.3 168.2 179.2 161.6 156.4 160.4 155.2 Others 45.1 56.3 63.4 83.0 93.0 92.2 93.0 107.0 103.4 103.4 Durables 23.4 25.5 24.7 36.7 46.9 50.4 33.0 56.2 45.7 50.7 Motor cars 10.9 10.9 8.6 14.2 20.1 25.4 15.0 31.0 23.4 27.4 Others 12.5 14.6 16.1 22.5 26.7 25.0 19.0 25.2 22.4 24.4 Other ofd. consumergoods 21.9 25.7 30.3 39.9 57.7 51.0 39.4 39.6 19.5 44.0

IntermediateGo0do 139.7 161.1 150.0 279.0 309.7 402.2 356.2 499.6 509.4 413.4

Fuels 30.1 35.6 6.3 86.8 89.6 143.6 84.9 59.4 68.2 53.0 Chemicals 22.1 24.5 29.8 41.6 52.5 51.4 43.6 50.4 44.4 47.2 Textiles 25.2 26.2 27.3 38.1 40.0 43.4 33.8 41.0 27.0 24.6 Feeds,fats & crude material 19.3 22.4 22.4 27.4 27.1 30.0 27.4 29.4 36.6 20.6 Other mfd.goods 43.0 52.4 64.2 94.1 101.5 133.8 166.6 319.4 333.2 260.0

Capital Goods 93.0 111.6 140.4 184.7 238.8 279.2 272.8 254.2 244.1 220.1

Machinery 60.9 76.9 100.9 129.9 159.6 194.2 185.9 179.3 175.8 161.3 Construction materials 32.2 34.7 39.5 54.8 90.2 85.0 9,1.9 74.9 68.3 58.8

UnclassifiedGoods 17.0 18.2 20.3 16.9 16.8 2.8 6.8 0.2 16.3 28.3

Total RetainedImports 439.2 503.2 554.0 779.5 931.0 1057.0 962.6 1113.41120.9 1015.6

March.loports (c.i.f.) a/ 473.3 556.2 617.6 850.9 1049.1 1151.1 1107.51249.2 1324.4 1221.8 a/ Visibletrade.

MemorandumItem:

Consumergoodst Food a SITC 0,1 (excluling08) Other a 9ITC 54, 55,83,84and 85 Motor cars a SITC 781 Otherdurables * SITC 71, 625, 741.5,761, 762, 775.2,795.1-3, 92, 86, 898.3, 8(residual)less 821.1-3 Raw materialsand intersediategoods: Fuols and lubricants* SITC 3 Textiles* SITC 65 Choeicalsa SITC 5 (residual) Others* 8ITC 6 (residual) Fats and crude materialsa SITC 08, 2 (residual)and 4 Capitalgoods: Buildingmaterials a SITC 24, 634, 635, 641.6,661.1-2, 67, 691, 694, 921.1-3 Machineryand transport- SITC 7 (residual) Others: SITC 9

Sources.Central Bank; BarbadosStatistical Servicel and BarbadosOverseas Trade Annuals. - 39 -

Table 3.4: BARBADOS- DIRECTIONOF TRADE,1976 - 85

(ODS million) ------_------__------__------1976 1977 1978 1979 1990 1981 1992 1993 1994 1985 ------__------__------Imports(c.i.f.) 473.3 556.2 617.6 850.8 1049.1 1151.11107.5 1249.2 1324.4 1221.8

EEC a/ 123.8 141.9 167.8 202.6 213.2 195.4 158.2 193.0 166.7 190.9 (UnitedKingdom) 98.5 103.0 115.6 130.3 157.3 140.3 99.5 112.4 100.0 111.1 us 10i.9 133.2 175.4 269.8 356.0 398.4 396.4 578.7 632.7 500.0 CARICON 92.2 90.7 92.0 136.8 199.5 193.2 144.1 150.3 154.7 180.2 Canada 40.7 38.9 46.2 64.3 76.8 98.2 63.7 68.0 74.9 62.2 Other 117.7 153.6 136.2 178.3 212.9 275.9 345.1 259.2 295.4 299.5

Exports (f.o.b.)b/ 173.5 204.0 250.2 306.7 455.3 391.0 517.4 646.2 797.4 707.8

EEC A/ 5.9 39.7 49.4 60.1 70.7 42.4 69.7 35.9 63.4 49.8 (UnitedKingdom) 5.6 15.7 32.5 38.6 29.9 26.9 47.0 29.3 54.4 40.7 Us 52.3 61.7 65.6 110.9 165.1 143.0 152.7 241.7 217.2 130.2 CARICON 45.8 46.6 64.1 76.2 126.7 i2l.1 141.3 139.0 175.9 160.5 Canada 12.2 10.7 12.1 16.0 18.3 18.2 10.7 9.8 12.6 9.9 Other 57.3 45.3 60.0 43.5 74.5 66.3 144.0 219.9 318.3 358.4

------__------__------aB Delgium-Luxembourg,Denmark, France, Germany FR, Ireland,Italy, Netherlands, UK and Greece (since1981). b/ Includesre-exports.

Sources OverseasTrade reports;Barbados Statistical Service. - 40 -

Table3.5i BARBADOS- NERCHANDISEEXPORTS (F.0.3.) TO CARICONAND OTHERCONNONNEALTH ------CARIBBEANCOUNTRIES 1976 - 85

(BD$ '000)

1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1961 1992 1983 1984 1985 ------__------__------GuyanaA/ 5056 3490 3002 3086 2113 2384 2037 2993 52791 71769

Trinidad and Tobago 17949 21108 31276 37281 52414 59476 86826 84236 74693 40478

Jamaica 7236 4694 7540 5245 13644 21676 18221 19813 10186 8735

Dominica 1606 1921 2893 4657 6273 3763 3398 3500 3691 3328

Brenada 2318 3039 3992 4861 5452 5156 5316 4997 5810 7778

St. Vincentb/ 2903 3052 3817 6494 9501 7966 6651 6256 7090 6601

St. Lucia 4593 5191 5929 8223 12313 11558 9916 8870 11027 11120

Montserrat 646 478 710 738 1064 955 894 870 856 1376

Antigua 1801 2228 2772 3703 2607 4595 4774 4148 6379 5083 St. Kitts-Nevis 1679 1551 2173 2293 3189 3036 3120 3208 3335 4212

Belize 8 42 38 114 70 78 108 95 19 50

Other c/ 760 752 1696 1829 1955 1428 1829 1000 3439 4600

Total 46555 47446 65918 78524 110595122071 143090 139994 179306 165130 Susan musan. Suaurna museum gasumen usages assess Sunmmn a.unas surnas Susummu *--X--s--*--" --- "----.------*----- *----*----*------a/ 1984 figureincludes transshipment of fuel. b/ Includingthe Brenadines. c/ Bahamas,Bermuda and BritishVirgin Islands.

SourcessAnnual Overseas Trade Yearbook;Barbados Statistical Service. - 41 -

Table 3.6. BARBADOS- MERCHANDISEINPORTS (F.O.B.) TO CARICONAND OTHER CONNONNEALTH ------CARIBBEANCOUNTRIES, 1976 - 85

(9D$ '000)

1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1992 1 983 1984 1985 6uyana 9709 10430 9255 8602 9801 8496 5734 4639 6412 5521

Trinidadand Tobago 53065 54379 54633 69645 146516132695 105340 111835 113172 125946

Jamaica 13771 15890 14994 25415 21185 29173 23023 22447 23635 37629

Dominica 1062 1319 1714 969 1443 1218 790 1367 1532 2284

Grenada 66 66 209 591 627 1073 832 496 557 497

St. Vincenta/ 748 937 2362 3216 2610 3486 3144 2290 2106 1268

St. L'cia 28690 4456 4947 3656 3899 5120 4247 4445 4524 4695

Nonteerrat 12 14 29 20 86 391 177 223 60 121

Antigua 515 517 1199 1641 2207 1680 1179 2241 2115 1679

St. Kitts-Nevis 220 259 241 679 606 422 117 126 495 570

Belize 106 480 332 2123 1594 455 495 241 105 13

Otherb/ 48 63 45 34 103 53 141 190 97 799

Total 02202 89981092039 136791189676 193262 145218 150540 154810 181022 unman engage Oswegoenguaugesason usgauges sauinas *uugau msunag mangsm Sousse ------"------*"------Y----

a/ Includesthe Grenadines. b/ Bahamas,Bermuda and BritishVirgin Islands.

SourcessAnnual Overseas Trade Yearbook;Barbados Statistical Service. - 42 -

Table 3.7. BARBADOS- OFFICIALINTERNATIONAL RESERVES, 1976 - 85

(Us$ million) December31

1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1991 1982 1983 1984 1985 Net International Reserves 29.3 19.2 41.5 51.2 71.1 67.5 75.7 84.3 73.6 89.0 __-___------____.. ... _ __-----...______v ...___o_^ __ __

Central Dank (net) 20.1 11.5 31.4 39.2 56.0 51.5 57.5 63.1 52.3 65.0

Assets 20.1 29.4 49.9 55.8 64.8 87.4 107.6 110.5 107.6 122.5

Liabilities - 17.9 18.5 16.6 8.9 35.9 50.1 47.4 55.5 56.7

(o.w. medium-term liab.l 4-) (10.0) (10.0) (6.0) (6.0) (7.3) (9.2) (9.3) (9.2) (9.2) IMF (CFF) - 7.9 8.5 8.6 2.9 0.9 14.0 12.4 11.5 12.9 Standby ------10.*6 25.4 31.4 35.2 Trinidad and Tob;go a/ - 10.0 10.0 9.0 6.0 6.0 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 VenezuelaInvestment Fund - - - - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 IDB - - - - 0.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 CommercialBanks - - - - - 29.0 19.0 5.0 9.0 4.0 CNCF - - - - - 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

GovernmentAssets 9.2 7.7 10.1 12.0 15.2 16.0 10,2 21.2 21.3 22.2

SinkingFund 5.3 6.9 9.1 11.2 13.8 14.8 16.6 19.5 20.4 19.2 Other 2.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.7 0.9 3.0

NemorandusItems

Bross OfficialReserves 28.3 37.1 60.0 67.8 80.0 103.4 125.7 131.7 129.1 144.1

------_-----__------__------a/ IncludesTrinidad .-d Tobagodeposits and oil fatility.

SourcessCentral Bank of Barbadosand IMF. - 43 -

Table 3.8i BARBADOS- ACTUALAND PROJECTEDBALANCE OF PAYMENTS(CASE A), 1984-91

(USSmillion)

Prel. P R OJ E C T E D

1985 1986 1987 1980 1989 1990 1991

DomesticExports, GNFS 620.03 605.44 612.72 668.93 718.37 762.68 907.29

Soods 248.23 236.89 221.06 242.81 267.78 268.22 311.61 NFS 371.80 368.56 391.67 426.02 450.60 474.46 495.68 (of whichttravel) 275.80 309.34 336.40 365.32 383.65 402.40 417.78

RetainedImports, GNFS 611.50 660.36 643.20 674.40 707.47 740.26 792.78

Goods 505.20 545.01 550.66 556.80 584.54 612.11 655.91 NFS 106.30 115.35 112.54 117.60 122.93 128.14 136.87

ResourceGap 8.53 -54.93 -30.48 -5.57 10.91 22.42 14.52

Net Factor Services -10.20 -19.99 -22.49 -25.45 -26.29 -25.89 -24.60 Interest -19.70 -25.99 -28.49 -31.45 -32.29 -31.99 -30.60 Other 9.50 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00

CurrentTransfers (net) 18.90 21.36 23.92 26.31 28.42 30.69 32.22

CurrentAccount Balance 17.23 -53.56 -29.04 -4.71 13.04 27.22 22.14

DirectForeign Investment -66.00 5.00 5.00 10.00 10.00 15.00 15.00

Net PublicCapital 48.90 64.36 56.64 9.71 -8.04 -27.22 -22.14 Project-related 72.10 24.72 30.68 29.97 27.75 39.70 35.39 (of which uncommitted) 0.00 2.46 4.79 6.40 25.20 23.75 Other 79.67 69.37 25.33 16.99 22.91 25.24 Amortization 23.20 39.03 43.40 44.59 52.78 89.83 82.77

Errors& omissions -25.03 ------

Changein Reserves 24.90 -15.80 -32.60 -15.00 -15.00 -15.00 -15.00 (- x increase) nemo items:

Debt serviceratio (X) 9.19 11.90 12.90 12.50 13.06 17.63 15.54 (as percentof Exports)al Reservelevel as numberof monthsof imports 2.80 2.88 3.56 3.66 3.75 3.82 3.80 a/ Boodsplus tourism only.

Sources: Central Bank of Barbados; and mission estimates. - 44 -

table 3.8 BARBADOS- ACTUALAND PROJECTEDBALANCE OF PAYIENTS(CASE B), 1984-91 4US$million)

Prel. P R 0 J E C T E D

1995 1986 1987 1998 1989 1990 1991

DomesticExports, SNFS 620.03 605.44 612.72 663.68 731.03 784.97 940.33

Goods 248.23 236.88 221.06 242.81 270.62 294.75 322.62 NFS 371.80 368.56 391.67 420.88 460.42 490.22 517.71 (of whichttravel) 275.80 309.34 336.40 360.18 392.77 416.54 437.06

RetainedImports, GNFS 611.50 660.36 643.20 678.17 715.27 754.41 916.45 __ _ __ …_… ------Goods 505.20 545.01 530.66 559.91 590.98 623.80 675.47 NFS 106.30 115.35 112.54 118.25 124.29 130.60 140.99

ResourceGap 8.53 -54.93 -30.48 -14.48 15.77 30.57 23.88 ______- ___ …__ ------Net FactorServices -10.20 -19.99 -22.49 -25.45 -26.59 -25.83 -23.88 Interest -19.70 -25.99 -29.49 -31.45 -32.59 -31.83 -29.88 Other , 9.50 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00

CurrentTransfers (net) 18.90 21.36 23.92 26.31 28.42 30.69 32.22

CurrentAccount Balance 17.23 -53.56 -29.04 -13.62 17.60 35.43 32.23 ------…__… ------

DirectForeign Investment -66.00 ;5.00 5.00 10.00 10.00 15.00 15.00

Net PublicCapital 48.90 64.36 56.64 18.62 -12.60 -35.43 -32.23 Project-related 72.10 24.72 30.68 28.97 27.75 39.70 35.39 (of which uncossitted) 0.00 2.46 4.79 6.40 25.20 23.75 Other 78.67 69.37 34.25 12.43 15.33 15.78 Amortization 23.20 39.03 43.40 44.59 52.78 90.46 83.39 Errors& omissions -25.03 ------

Changein Reserves 24.90 -15.80 -32.60 -15.00 -15.00 -15.00 -15.00 (- * increase)

Memo items:

Debt serviceratio (X) 9.19 11.90 12.90 12.61 12.87 17.19 14.91 (as percentof Exports)a/ Reservelevel as numberof monthsof imports 2.80 2.88 3.56 3.64 3.71 3.75 3.69 …------__------_ ------a/ Goods plus tourismonly.

SourcestCentral Bank of Barbados;and missionestieates. Table 4.1 8ARBADOS

EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC 31. 1985 INCLUDES ONLV DEBT COMMITTED 000000 - DEC 31. 1985 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) D E B T O U T S T A N D I N G I N A R R E A R S DISBURSED s UNDISBURSED : TOTAL PRINCIPAL : INTEREST

CREDITOR TYPE a SUPPLIERS CREDITS IRELAND 1.013 1.229 2.242 - UNITED KINGDOM 10 - 160 _ TOTAL SUPPLIERS CREDITS 1.173 1.229 2.402 - CREDITOR TYPE s FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AUSTRIA 38.932 - 38,932 - CANADA 8.782 - 8,782 - KINGDOM 82,979 14.744 97,723 - 324 UNITED - UNITED STATES 8.416 - 8,416 - 324 TOTAL FINANCIAL INSTtTUTIONS 139,109 14,744 153,853 -

CREDITOR TVPE . BONDS JAPAN 24,940 - 24,940 -- TRINIDAD & TOBAGO 11,111 - 11,111 -

TOTAL BONDS 36,051 - 36,051 - CREDITOR TYPE MULTILATERAL LOANS CARI8BEAN DEV. BANK 20.748 10.207 30.955 - EUROPEAN DEV.FUND 1 043 712 1.755 - EUROPEAN INVEST BANK 7.921 6,123 14.044 - IBRo 28.901 23,324 52,225 - 45,590 39,362 84,952 - IDB _ OPEC SPECIAL FUND 3,749 - 3,749 TOTAL MULTILATERAL LOANS 107,952 79.728 187.680 - CREDITOR TYPE : BILATERAL LOANS 23,144 1.987 25,131 - - CANADA 480 TRINIDAD & TOBAGO 9,223 - 9.223 5,000 3.068 55 3.123 - - UNITED KINGDOM - UNITED STATES 17.000 - 17,000 - VENEZUELA 15,223 1,784 17,007 1.972 374 TOTAL BILATERAL LOANS 67.858 3.826 71.484 6,972 854

NOTESs (1) ONLV DEBTS WITH AN ORIGINAL OR EXTENDED MATURITV OF OVER ONE VEAR ARE INCLUDED IN THIS TABLE. (2) DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDES PRINCIPAL IN ARREARS BUT EXCLUDES INTEREST IN ARREARS Table 4. 1 8RBADOS

EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC 31. 198S INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED 000000 - DEC 31. 1985 DEBT REPAVABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCV AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)

D E B T O U T S T A N D I N G : I N A R R E A R S DISBURSED : UNDISBURSED : TOTAL : 'RINCIPAL : INTEREST ------2------

SUPPLIERS CREDITS 1,173 1.229 2.402 - - FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 139.109 14,744 153,853 - 324 BONDS 36,051 - 36,051 - - MULTILATERAL LOANS 107.952 79.728 187,680 - - BILATERAL LOANS 67,658 3.826 71.484 6.972 854 TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT 351,943 99.527 451,470 6.972 1.178

0%

NOTES: (1) ONLY DEBTS WITH AN ORIGINAL OR EXTENDED MATURITV OF OVER ONE YEAR ARE INCLUDED IN THIS TABLE. (2) DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDES PRINCIPAL IN ARREARS BUT EXCLUDES INTEREST IN ARREARS Table 4.2

BARBADOS SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL P OEBT PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISSURSED AS OF DEC 31. 1985 INCLUDES ONLY DEST COMMITTED 000000 - 198512 DEBT REPAYABLE tN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S DOLLARS) * * * TABLE TOTAL * * * DATE DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I OD OTHER CHANGES END OF PERIOD

: DISBURSED: INCLUDING COMMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- : ADJUST- ONLY :UNDtS8URSED : MENTS : MENTS :------T:------:------LATIONS * : ENT * : PRINCtPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL : (1) : (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (6) (9) 197512 26,S85 54,935 1S,038 1,446 t.681 2.378 4.059 87 - 197612 31.171 63.859 11t000 6.779 1,951 1.981 3.932 - -125 197712 49.450 81.131 26.100 26.1t5 7.039 1.730 8.769 105 -1.684 197812 64.213 t04.252 28.t39 19.430 4.393 3.443 7.836 1 -624 1979t2 70.413 125,270 25.585 10.674 6.850 5.259 12.109 65 2.348 198012 97.794 176.200 61.869 38.352 8.66S 5.807 14.475 17 -2.274 198112 175.532 327.495 t63.654 87.094 7.387 8.835 16.222 229 -4.743 196212 222.514 330.667 16.048 56,907 7,173 15.747 22,920 651 -5.052 198312 278.838 377.228 61.632 69.278 11.023 17.055 28.078 287 -3.761 198412 301.813 419.398 65.645 40.886 12.563 15.264 27,827 - -10.912 198512 351.943 451,470 52.682 72,140 23.22i 19.692 42.920 299 2.917

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTEDO *

196612 327.41i 405.473 - 21,465 39.026 25.864 64.890 - -6.971 198712 306.776 362.172 - 21.668 43.300 24.322 67,622 - -1 1988t2 283.893 322.657 - 17.632 39.513 22.228 61.741 - -2 196912 260.639 284.606 - 14.800 38.054 20.379 58 -3 - a 199012 200.328 214.841 - 9.453 69.765 17.142 86.907 - 199112 176.308 184.235 - 6.587 30,607 13,066 43.673 - I 199212 154.562 157.806 - 4.683 26.430 11.203 37.633 - I 199312 137.635 138.404 - 2.474 19.399 9.S41 28.940 - -3 109412 119.S68 119.573 - 764 18.832 8.217 27.049 i9o%12 t;2.2t7 102.222 1I - - 17.352 6.898 24.250 - I iII61^ s87yT S8-T756 - - t4.466 5.669 20,135 - 199712 75.938 75.942 - - 11.812 4.729 16.541 - -2 19612 64.690 64,894 - - 11,247 3.929 1S,176 - - 199912 54.747 54,751 - - 9,946 3.181 13.127 - 3 200012 46.118 46.122 - - 8.630 2.567 1,.197 - I

* PROJECTED AMOUNTS IN THIS COLUNN ARE AMOUNTS EXCLUDED FROM PRrJECTIONS BECAUSE OF UNKNOW TERNS. e* THIS COLUMN SHOWS TH AMOUNT OF ARZTNETIC ZINALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLVDING UWIS8URSED FRDM ONE PERIOD TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COWMN CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFERS OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER tN THE TABLE. Table 4.2

BARBAOOS SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS* DISWBRSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL P DEBT PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC 31. 196S INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED 000000 - 198S12 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) CREDITOR TYPE SUPPLlERS CREDITS * * * TOTAL * * * DATE DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I O D OTHER 0'1ANGES END OF PERIOD

: DISBURSED : INCLUDING CONMIT- :DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- : ADJUST- : ONLY : UNDISSURSED RENTS NENTS ------:------:------LATIONS * : ENT ** PRINCIPAL : INTEREST TOTAL : (1} :) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

197512 1,280 1,837 558 916 217 105 322 -- 197612 1.224 *.224 - 496 339 t10 440 - -274 197712 9S6 956 - - 379 45 424 - 11 197812 593 593 - - 404 45 449 - 41 197912 336 336 - - 298 23 321 - 41 198012 70 70 - - 284 24 308 - i8 198112 - - - - 59 - 59 - -i 198212 376 733 763 376 - 21 21 - -30 198312 540 540 - 335 t58 44 202 - -35 198412 1.460 2.444 2.472 1.335 184 63 247 - -384 198S12 1,173 2,402 - - S72 154 726 - 530

e * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * 0

199612 1.t50 1.778 - 601 624 169 793 - 198712 963 t.154 - 438 624 146 770 - 198812 560 S60 - 191 593 102 69S - - 198912 - - - - 560 43 603 - 199012 - - - - _ _ _ _ 199112 199212 199312 199412 199"12 199612 199712 199812 199912 200012

* PROJECTED AMOUNTS IN THIS COLUMN ARE ANOUNTS EXCLUWED FROM PROJECTtONS BECAUSE OF UW(OMN TERMS.

THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBUQSED FROM ONE PERIOD TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMONCAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFERS OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. Table 4.2

BARBADOS SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTSOF EXTERNAL P DEBT PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC 31, 1985 INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED 000000 - 198912 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) CREDITOR TYPE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS * * * TOTAL * * * DATE DEST OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I O : OTHER CHANGES END OF PERIOD

: DISBURSED: INCLUDING COMMIT-: DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- : AODUST- : ONLY : UNDISBURSED MENTS : MENTS :------:------:------LATIONS * : MT ** : PRINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL : (t) : (2) : () : (4) : (5) : (6) : (7) : 8 : (9

197512 16.505 - 1iS.5S - 1.464 1.8t1 3.345 - 197612 16.041 16.541 1.500 1,000 1.464 1,324 2.784 197712 18.543 18.760 5.700 5.983 3.481 1.000 4.481 - 197812 25,025 25.036 10.000 10.205 3.723 1.652 5.375 1 - 197912 22,473 22,073 600 11 4.262 2.980 7.242 - 1.69 196012 20.503 28.113 11.9t7 5.0S0 5,434 3.162 8.596 - -1.443 198112 64,883 *39.702 i19g.41 60,685 5.207 3,W04 9,011 - -2.845 198212 88,331 t32,468 - 28,656 4.132 8.184 t2.316 -3.102 198312 t1.205 147.528 22.143 29.031 5.34S 6,293 13.638 - -1.738 198412 *19.585 140.207 2.673 17,t40 6,485 5.965 t2.450 - -3.909 196512 139.109 153.853 25.000 31.944 14.846 9.578 24.424 - 3.492 1

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * 1961t2 116.614 i27.909 - 5.451 25.945 12.1t1 38.o6 -t 198712 95.149 100.704 - 3.739 27.206 10,169 37.374 - 198812 76.682 78.831 - 3.406 21.873 6.064 29.937 - 198912 56.312 56.312 - 2,151 22,521 0.414 28.935 - 2 199012 38.227 38.227 - - 18.065 4.449 22.534 - 199112 23.829 23.829 - - t4.398 2.835 17.233 - 199212 12.976 12.976 - - 10.853 1.703 12.M55 - 199312 9.268 9.268 - - 3.706 919 4,627 199412 5.560 5S560 - - 3.708 636 4.344 - 1995S2 1.852 - 1.852 - 3.708 353 4.061 - 199612 - - - - 1.S52 71 1,923 - 199712 ------199812 ------199912 - - - - _ _ _ _ 200012 ------

* PROJECTED AMOUNTS IN THIS COLUtN ARE AMOUNTSEXCLUDED FROM PROJECTIONS SECAUSE OF UNKNOWN TERMS.

THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDIN UNDtISBURSED FROM ONE PERIOD TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMONCAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFERS OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. Table 4.2

BARBADOS SERVICE PAYMENTS.COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDINGAMOUNTS OF EXTERNALP DERT PROJECTIONSBASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDINGINCLUDING UNDISBURSEDAS OF DEC 31. 1985 INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMtTTED 000000 - 198512 DEBT REPAYABLEIN FOREIGN CURRENCYAD GOODS (IN THOUSANDSOF U.S. DOLLARS) CREDITOR TYPE : BONDS * * * TOTAL * * * DATE DEST OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E RI OD OTHER CHANGES : END OF PERIOD

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y N E N T S : CANCEL- : ADJUST- : ONLY : UNDIS8URSED : NENTS : MENTS :------:------:------: LATIONS * :N_T *N : PRINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL : (1) (2) (3) : (4) (5) (6) (7) (B) (9)

197512 3.580 3.580 - - - 231 231 - - 197612 3.578 3.578 - - - 231 231 - -2 197712 - - - - 2,953 141 3.094 - -625 1978s2 ------197912 ------_ _ _ 198012 16.667 16,6a7 16.658 16.658 - - - - 9 198112 16.667 .67 - - - 1.417 1.417 - - 198212 16.667 t6.667 - - - 1,417 1.417 - - 198312 16,067 t6.667 - - - 1.417 1.417 - - 198412 16,667 t6.667 - - - 1.417 1.4t7 - - 198512 36.051 36.051 21.120 21.120 - 1.397 1.397 - -1.736

* * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * *

198612 36.051 36,01 - - - 2.859 2.859 198712 36.051 36.051 - - - 2.859 2.859 198812 36.051 36,051 - - - 2.859 2.859 198912 36.051 36.051 - - - 2.859 2.859 199012 - - - - 36.051 t.902 37.953 199112 ------199212 ------199312 ------199412 ------199512 - - - - _ _ 199612 - - - - _ _ 199712 - - - - _ _ 199812 ------199912 - - _ _ _ _ 200012 ------

* PROJECTED AMOUNTS IN THIS COLUMN ARE AMOUNTS EXCLUDED FROM PROJECTIONS BECAUSE OF UNKNOWNTERMS.

** THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISSURSED FROM ONE PERIOD TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFERS OF DEBTS FROMONE CATEGORYTO ANOTHERIN THE TABLE. Table 4.1

BARBADOS SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL P DEBT PROdECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC 31, 1985 INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED 000000 - 198512 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GMOOS (IN THOUSANDSOF U.S. DOLLARS) CREDITOR TYPE MULTILATERAL LOANS * * * TOTAL * * * DATE DEST OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I : OTHER CHANGES : END OF PERIOD

: DISBURSED: INCLUDING COMNIT- : DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y E N T S : CANCEL- : ADJUST- : ONLY UNDISURSED : MENTS : MENTS :------:------:------LATIONS * : LENt * : PRINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL : (1) (2) (3) (4) : (5) (6) : (7) : (8) (9) 197512 416 13.995 10.282 SS - 89 89 87 - 197612 2.875 23.478 9.500 2.487 28 60 t88 - It 197712 10.609 34.019 10.400 7.422 S8 341 39 tO0 304 197812 15.812 S1.044 16.507 4.686 58 880 938 - 576 197912 22.487 70.035 18.930 6.566 87 1,205 1.292 54 202 198012 33.739 100.437 31.615 12.292 565 1.559 2.124 - -f64 198112 55.446 120.228 21.718 22.677 562 1.999 2.561 229 -t.136 198212 74.878 129.018 11.626 21.214 1.530 3.372 4.902 5j -6655 196312 89.690 138,010 13.,00 18.198 2.895 3.921 6.816 287 -1.326 198412 99.584 186.776 54. 500 15.135 4.351 4.691 9.042 - -1.383 198512 107.952 t87.680 6.562 14.224 6.289 5,974 12.263 279 9tO

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * *

198612 113.323 179.853 - 13,197 7.827 7.359 15.186 - - 198712 118.820 169.010 - 16.340 10.841 8.022 18.663 - -2 198812 120.590 157.089 - 13,691 11.921 8.305 20.226 - - 198912 120,842 144.778 - 12.564 12.3t2 8.463 20.775 - i 199012 117,371 131.873 - 9.434 12,906 8.3S3 21.259 - I 199112 110.464 118.389 - 6,578 13.483 7.965 21,448 - -1 199212 101.910 1061S52 - 4,683 13,236 7.392 20.628 - -1 199312 91.367 92,134 - 2.474 13.016 6.655 19.671 - -2 199412 79.832 79.835 - 764 12,299 S.766 t8.065 - - 199512 69,013 69 016 - - .40.j9 . 4,881 tL-lQ - - YRP - N5.266 - - 9.810 4,085 13.895 - - t99712 49.713 49.71S - - 9,490 3.360 12.850 - -t 199812 40.716 40.718 - - 8.996 2.669 11,665 - -1 199912 33.021 33.023 - - 7.695 2.027 9.722 - - 200012 26,590 26.592 - - 6.430 1.520 7.950 - -1

* PROJECTED A4MUNTS IN THIS COLUMN ARE AMOUNTS EXCLUDED FROM PROJECTIONS BECAUSE OF UNKNOWNTERMS.

** THIS COLUMN SHOVS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FRWM ONE PERIOD TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMONCAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFERS OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. Table 4.2

BARBADOS SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OWTSTANOING ANOUNTS OF EXTERNAL P DEBT PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEST OUTSTANDING INCLUDtNC UNDISBURSEO AS OF DEC 31, tiSS INCLUDES ONLY DEST COMMITTED 000000 - 198512 DEST REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCYAND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) CREDITOR TYPE * ItLATERAL LOANS * * * TOTAL * * ^ DATE DEBT OUTSTANDIN AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I O D OTHER CHANGES END DF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- :OISBURSE- S E R V t C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- : ADJUST- ONLY UNDISBURSED NEWTS : NEWS ------LATIONS * : MENT ** PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL (1) (2) (3) (4) (S) (6) (7) (6) (9)

1975t2 4.804 19.0t8 4.198 475 - 72 72 -- 197612 7.453 19.038 - 2.796 120 165 2S5 - 140 197712 19.342 27.396 10,000 12,710 168 203 371 -1.474 197812 22.783 27.579 e.C32 4.5"9 208 866 t.074 - -1.241 197912 25.117 '1.6826 6o55 4.297 2.203 1.051 3.254 It 406 19802 26.61t5 20.913 I099 4.252 2.385 1.062 3.447 17 -210 1981t2 38.53# 50.896 22,295 13.732 *.559 1.615 .174 - 5s 196212 42.262 st.78 3,659 6.659 t.511 2.752 4.264 - -. 265 198312 60.736 74.463 25,969 21.714 2.625 3.380 6.005 _ -662 198412 64,517 73304 6W000 7.276 1,543 3.128 4.671 - -5.63 19512 67.636 71.464 _ 4.652 .521 2.549 4.tt0 20 -279

* * * * ** THE FOLLOWING FIG0RES ARE PROJECTED * **

196612 56.273 59.682 - 2.216 4.630 3.216 7.946 -6.972 198712 54.793 56.253 - 1.tS 4C6O0 3.126 7.75 - t 198612 50.010 50.126 - 344 5.126 2.896 .024 - -1 19912 47.424 47.46 - 8S 2.966 2.600 S.261 -- 196012 44.730 44.741 -I 2.723 2.430 5.161 - - 199112 42.01S 42.017 - 9 2.726 2.266 4.992 - 2 199212 9.676 39.676 - - 2.341 2.106 4.449 - 2 199312 37.000 37.002 - - 2.67, 1.967 4.642 -1 19912 34.176 34.17 - - 2,825 1.15 4.640 - 1 199512 31.32 31.354 - - 2.82S 1.64 4.469 - t 199612 26.S46 26.850 - - 2. 04 1.513 4.317 - 199712 26.225 26.227 - - 2.322 1.369 3.91 - - 99612 23.974 23.976 - - 2.25t 1.260 .1S -- 19912 21.726 21.728 - - 2.251 1.154 3.405 - 3 200012 19.528 19.530 - - 2.200 1.047 3.247 - 2

PROJECTED AMOUNTS IN THIS COLUMN ARE AMOUNTS EXCLUDED FROM PROJECTIONS BECAUSE OF UNtNOWN TERMS.

THIS COLUWSSHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITFlETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSEO FROM ONE PERIOD TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMONCAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFERS OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. - 53 -

Table5.1: DARDADOS- CENTRAL MOVERUNENOT FINANCES, 1977/78 - 1995/86

90$ mdllion)

1977/781979179 1979100 1990181 1981/02 1982/83 1993/84 1984/95 1905/96

CurrentRevenues 237.1 296.9 342.4 425.6 453.1 492.1 538.0 570.8 645.5 CurrentExpenditures 232.2 256.0 304.2 387.1 433.7 476.9 489.6 554.5 624.6

CurrentSurplus/Deficit (-1 4.9 40.9 39.2 39.5 19.4 15.2 49.4 16.3 20.9

CapitalRevenue 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CapitalExpenditure &Net Lending 95.9 72.2 05.8 141.8 173.3 141.2 129.3 131.9 142.5

OverallSurplus/Deficit H-) -79.1 -31.4 -47.6-103.3 -153.9 -126.0 -79.9-115.6 -121.6

Financing 79.1 31.4 47.6 103.3 153.9 126.0 79.9 115.6 121.6

Brossexternal borrowing 34.3 36.4 21.1 09.6 104.3 71.2 49.7 73.8 69.3 Trinidad&Tobago 0.0 0.0 0.0 51.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CIDA 6.9 9.4 2.9 0.3 1.5 0.2 0.4 4.4 0.0 USAIDA/ 0.0 0.0 0.0 h/ 10.6 8.4 19.0 16.0 0.0 UK 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 IORD 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 3.6 17.5 12.6 S.5 10.3 CDs 2.1 1.4 3.6 7.4 2.6 2.3 6.3 1.6 0.6 IDB 13.3 6.6 11.2 11.2 14.6 7.2 8.0 6.6 4.3 Commercialbanks 12.0 20.0 0.0 11.7 68.9 32.6 1.2 3.6 50.0 OPEC 0.0 0.0 1.5 4.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 EF 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Japan 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.6 0.0 OtherscJ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5.5 3.2 Grants 0.9 1.9 0.8 2.2 0.9 1.9 2.9 4.0 1.3 Amortization 6.9 7.9 9.0 10.9 13.9 14.6 26.9 23.5 30.7 Netexternal borrowing 28.2 30.3 12.9 90.9 91.3 50.4 24.7 54.3 39.9

Netbanking systes 29.5 19.4 31.5 23.6 45.7 12.5 6.0 -22.5 22.6 CentralBank d/ 7.3 14.6 24.3 19.2 27.6 7.1 -10.2 -70.5 0.0 Comercialbanks 21.2 3.9 7.2 4.4 18.1 5.4 16.2 49.0 21.9 others 22.4 -17.3 3.2 -1.2 16.9 55.1 49.2 83.8 59.1 Trustcompanies 0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.9 1.0 Specialfunds -0.7 -0.4 0.4 -0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 2.9 -3.3 NationalInsurance Fund 9.9 3.2 2.3 0.6 24.1 41.7 37.6 36.9 27.1 Insurancecompanies 3.9 0.9 0.7 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other(residual) 9.2 -20.7 -0.4 -4.2 -7.3 13.7 12.7 43.2 34.3 Netdomestic financing 50.9 1.1 34.7 22.4 62.6 67.6 55.2 61.3 91.7

a/ RepresentsCDF and Basic Human Needs financing channeled thru CDB,except for 3D97million in 193/04. b/ Includedin COD. c/ IncludesVenezuelan Investmnt Fund loan in the amountof 90515.5million in 1994/95and BUS$2.0 sillion in 198596. d/ IncludesUSAID Rediscount ccount of 9D04.6million in 1995/96.

Sources:Ninistry of Financeand Planning; Akcountant Genral's Office; and mision estimate. - 54 -

PageI of 2 Table5.2: BARBADOS - CENTRAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES 1977/78 - 1996/87

(Bt$Billion)

Budget 1977/781978/79 1979190 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1993194 1994/85 1995/86 1986/t7

Taxeson Net Income and Profits 105.6 132.4 138.4 159.9 175.2 190.9 191.6 185.0 200.4 168.0 Companies 34.6 44.2 47.4 64.7 66.9 68.4 61.2 50.7 56.0 49.0 Individuals 66.0 92.2 95.6 89.0 99.6 113.2 120.0 125.2 134.5 110.0 Othars 5.0 6.0 5.4 6.1 8.7 9.2 10.4 9.1 9.1 9.0 EmploymentLevy 0.0 6.1 4.1 4.2 -3.9 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 HealthLevy 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 13.3 16.2 8.4 14.0 TransportLevy 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 10.0 10.5 12.3 12.1 12.0 TrainingLevy 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.7 2.3 2.4 Taxeson Property 11.5 13.0 17.8 21.6 27.5 26.4 28.1 29.3 34.7 31.1 Landtax 7.2 9.0 11.7 11.5 15.8 19.8 21.9 22.9 26.0 24.5 Estate& Succession Duties 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.6 3.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 PropertyTransfers Tax& Others 2.1 2.9 4.1 7.5 8.7 5.9 5.7 5.0 9.2 6.1 Taxon Domestic Goods & Services 54.2 66.3 79.8 109.2 121.0 127.9 152.2 166.4 175.4 195.0 BankAssets Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 ConsueptionTax 17.2 19.2 23.6 51.4 56.4 80.3 95.0 95.9 99.9 115.5 ExciseDuties 4.7 5.2 5.5 4.9 5.3 4.3 4.6 5.0 5.0 5.2 Taxeson Motor spirits,Diesel Oil & AviationFuel 12.7 15.2 17.8 19.2 23.2 3.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 NotorVehicle Licenses 2.5 3.4 4.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hotel& Restaurant Tax 7.2 10.3 13.4 14.7 14.6 12.4 14.3 14.6 17.3 15.4 MotorVehicle Duty (Nighway Rev.) 2.9 4.2 4.2 4.7 5.5 6.7 8.3 12.4 13.0 14.0 Business& Professional Licenses 1.5 2.2 1.7 2.0 1.7 3.6 3.6 4.1 5.3 6.0 Taxon Insurance Premiums 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.2 1.4 2.1 2.3 2.5 3.0 3.2 AirportService Charge 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 2.7 3.9 5.5 5.7 5.6 TravelTax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.4 3.6 4.0 Other 5.5 6.6 9.0 9.7 9.9 10.8 15.0 19.7 19.0 12.3 Taxeson International Trade 48.1 54.9 74.4 99.9 99.6 74.7 89.7 84.1 96.9 103.0 ImportDuties 48.1 54.9 74.4 89.9 89.6 74.7 B9.7 84.1 96.9 103.0 OtherTaxes (Stamp duties) 2.2 3.0 3.9 5.0 5.4 17.5 25.9 46.7 74.5 86.5

TotalTax Revenue 221.6 275.7 318.4 398.6 417.6 456.9 512.1 540.7 604.7 602.0

- -_ ------_ - 55 -

Page2 of 2 Table5.2 IAIROADOS- CENTRAL 9OVERNElNT REVENUES 1977178 - 196/117

(ODSmillion)

Budget 19771781979/79 1979/80 1980181 1991192 1982/93 1993/94 19U4/85 195/86 1986/97

PropertyIncose 4.5 6.9 9.1 13.9 13.4 15.8 8.9 13.3 14.5 14.7 Rents,Royalties, Dividends 2.2 3.9 3.8 4.6 4.7 4.2 5.5 8.5 9.5 9.2 Interest 1.4 1.2 1.8 2.7 2.2 3.2 2.0 2.7 2.6 3.7 CentralBank & ExchangeProfits 0.9 1.8 3.5 6.5 6.5 8.4 1.4 2.1 2.4 1.9 AdeinistrativeFees, FinesI Others 11.0 14t 14.9 23.2 22.1 19.4 17.0 16.0 26.3 19.0

TotalNon-tax Revenue 15.5 21.1 24.0 37.0 35.5 35.2 25.9 30.1 40.9 32.7

TotalCurrent Revenue 237.1 296.8 342.4 425.6 453.1 492.1 538.0 570.9 645.5 634.7 :2::ss2:33a:ua22:aa; zt:a UUUUOU u::SS: a5U55 =ma:5 22SZU UESUtU ar52x a"aut came=

NotesCurrent revenue totals arearrived at by the followingmethod: Examples 1991/921982/83 1993/84 1984185 1995/86 1996187

Currentrevenue (actual or Budet) 469.4 496.9 541.2 574.3 648.1 704.6 1992/83includes DD$20 ln, wage ad;. ADD: TrainingLevy 0.3 0.9 0.9 1.7 2.3 2.4 TransportLevy 2.4 10.0 10.5 12.3 12.1 12.0

DEDUCT:Civil Aviation 9.3 9.9 10.9 11.0 9.7 12.0 Excl. xpenditureof CentralAdin. NateruorksDepartment 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PrintingDepartment 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 Loansand Advances 1.7 1.6 1.9 3.3 4.9 7.4 Reimbursementof Central Thegov't estimates include the 6overnuent'sEmployees to euployeetscontrib. as anexpenditure. Nat'l Insurancecontrib. 6.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Reimbursementof salaries Thegovt estimatesinclude this as an of the employeesof the expenditure.The IIF reimbursethe Nat'lInsurance Fund 1.6 2.0 1.5 2.8 1.9 2.5 CSat the endof thecalendar year. 1986/97Tax Revisions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -61.9 Includesrevnue loss of 12and 49 million in corporationand iqcome taxe and 5.5eillion net increasein consumptiontax.

AdjustedCurrent Revenue 453.1 492.1 538.0 570.8 645.5 634.7

Sources:Ministry of Fianaceand Planning, Accountant Weneral and mission estimates. - 56 - Table 5.31 MO8AND0S- CENWTAl SOVERIUENT EIPENIOTUAES n ECONOMiC CLASSIFICA?iONS, 1971178 - 1905/86 18 million)

1977/781978/79 1979/80 I980/81 1991162 1982/93 1983/04 1984/95 1985/86

Bondsand Services 135.0 148.1 169.2 217.1 233.2 262.7 267.5 305.6 335.7

Wagesand salaries 101.3 112.3 126.7 171.7 170.7 195.7 207.2 236.2 259.0 Other 33.9 35.8 42.5 45.4 62.5 67.0 60.3 69.4 76.7

Interest 18.4 22.8 29.4 29.9 52.4 71.1 62.5 64.4 69.6

Domostic 15.4 17.2 18.5 20.2 37.4 50.6 47.1 39.6 34.8 External 3.0 5.6 9.9 9.7 15.0 20.5 15.4 24.9 34.9 OperatingDeficit ofDepartoental

EnturprisesIPrinting Department) 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.5

OtherOooestic Transfers 75.7 82.3 102.7 136.6 143.8 138.2 154.0 178.7 212.8

NationalInsurance contributions 1.9 3.4 3.3 7.6 2.4 9.5 12.2 13.3 15.9 Mon-financialpublic enterprises 10.6 11.5 16.2 27.7 28.5 21.5 19.0 17.4 19.9 Pensions 12.9 14.7 16.7 19.7 22.3 26.3 29.9 33.9 35.5 Non-profitinstitutions 1.2 1.3 1.6 3.9 1.5 1.8 2.1 5.7 6.1 Othertransfers 19.1 19.9 23.5 26.7 28.1 13.0 7.5 12.3 22.9 Otherpublic institutions 30.0 31.5 41.4 51.0 61.0 66.1 84.3 96.1 112.5

Regional& International Agencies 2.3 2.0 2.9 2.4 2.9 3.5 3.3 4.2 5.0

TOTALCURRENT EXPENDITURES 232.2 256.0 304.2 387.1 433.7 476.9 480.6 554.5 624.6 ======_ _===______.______s a_ _ua_== _ _ _asn _sz_

NotetCurrent expenditure totals arearrived at bythe folowingmethods Examples 1980/811981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1965/96

Currentexpenditure 426.3 473.4 536.2 518.8 595.4 663.1 AMD: TrainingLevy 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.7 2.3 PrintinqDepartment deficit 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.5 atertworksDept.deficit 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TrnsportFund 7.3 0.0 4.5 10.6 8.4 12.5

DEDUCTsPrinting Department 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.0 Civil Aviation 7.2 8.0 7.9 7.9 10.8 11.9 WaterworksDepartment 16.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U.0 Loansand advancn 1.9 1.8 26.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 AortizationL sinkingfund 22.2 21.5 24.7 30.0 35.0 37.1 Employee'sNat' Insurance contribution 4.2 6.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 NIFeployees sailaies 1.4 1.7 2.1 1.5 2.8 1.9 HealthLevy - employees' contribution 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 TransportLevy - employees' contribution 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.6

AdjustedCurrent Expenditure W.1 433.7 476.9 418.6 554.5 624.6

SouressMinistry of Financeand Planningl Acointt Bentral andmission estimts. - 57 -

Table5.4: BARBADOS- CENTRAL BOVERlNIT CAPITAL EIPENDITURES BYECONONIC CLASSIFICATIONS, 1977/78- 1985/66

(9DfmllIon)

19771781978/79 1979/801980/18 1981192 1992/83 1983/84 1994/85 1985/86

.conoticClassification

AcquisitionofAssets 2.9 2.7 0.0 2.0 4.3 4.7 7.0 7.5 5.1

Capital Formation 37.8 27.4 50.1 90.7 113.9 68.7 58.0 54.6 83.3

Transfers 29.6 34.5 35.3 44.0 40.3 27.8 34.9 34.6 33.9

Non-financialPublicEnterprisus 26.3 30.4 31.0 33.4 31.2 25.3 27.6 29.0 29.2

PublicFinancial Institutions 2.5 2.2 1.6 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5

Abroad 0.0 1.3 1.2 7.1 5.7 1.7 6.0 3.4 1.2

OtherPublic Institutions 0.8 0.6 1.5 2.5 1.9 0.3 0.8 0.7 1.0

NetLending 15.7 7.6 0.4 5.1 14.8 40.0 29.4 35.2 20.2

EquityContributions 12.6 5.2 0.2 4.5 14.7 14.8 25.7 20.8 19.6

Loansand advances a/ 3.1 2.4 0.2 0.6 0.1 25.2 3.7 14.4 0.6

Total CapitalExpenditure &Net

Lendingb/ 65.9 72.2 95.8 141.8 173.3 141.2 129.3 131.9 142.5

a/Includes BS24 dillionloan to the Petrolum Company in1992/83. bJ 1982/83-83/84includes axpenditures of tht Trnsport LevyFund.

Sources:Ninistry of Financeand Planing; ccountAntenral and aission estimates. - 58 - Table5.5, MDOS - CENTRALBOVERIUENT TRANSFERS, 1917178 - I984/85

(IDOmillion)

1977/781978/79 1979/S0 1980/81 1991/82 1902/P 1993/04 1984/05 1985/06

CurrentTransfers 78.8 35.1 106.6 140.1 148.1 143.1 150.6 184.5 219.3

Nor-financialPublic Enterprises 10.6 11.5 16.2 27.7 29.5 21.5 18.0 17.4 19.9 NationalHousing Corporation 1.7 2.6 3.3 3.9 4.9 2.9 2.8 3.2 2.7 NateruorksDeparteent 2.7 2.7 3.2 7.3 5.4 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Postoffice 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 B'dosIndustrial Dev. Corp. 1.2 1.2 1.7 2.9 3.0 2.5 2.2 3.1 3.0 TransportBoard 4.6 4.5 7.6 11.9 15.0 14.5 13.0 10.8 14.0 O dosWarketing Corporation 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 O.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Operotingdeficit of Departmental Enterprise(Printing Office) 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.5 OtherPublic Institutions 30.0 31.5 41.4 51.0 61.0 66.1 04.3 96.1 112.5 BarbadosDefense Force 0.9 1.3 2.1 5.1 7.5 9.7 11.9 15.5 16.7 Schools,colleges I universities 14.9 15.1 21.4 22.0 25.7 25.3 38.2 37.2 50.2 Tourisnpromotion 3.9 4.2 5.3 6.3 7.5 10.2 11.5 15.4 16.5 Sanitationservices 5.0 5.2 6.2 8.1 9.2 8.9 11.2 10.9 10.5 Parksand beaches 1.8 2.3 2.3 3.3 4.1 3.4 3.0 6.6 5.7 Exportpromotion 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.6 1.9 CavesAuthority 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Welfareagencies 2.1 2.7 3.0 4.3 5.4 6.6 6.9 7.7 9.0 Other 1.2 0.5 0.8 1.5 0.6 1.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 NationalInsurance Board 1.9 3.4 3.3 7.6 2.4 9.5 12.2 13.3 15.9 Non-profitInstitutions 1.2 1.3 1.6 3.9 1.5 1.8 2.1 5.7 6.1 Pensions 12.9 14.7 16.7 19.7 22.3 26.3 29.9 33.9 35.5 OtherTransfers to Individuals 19.1 i9.9 23.5 26.7 28.1 13.0 7.5 12.3 12.9 Welfaregrants 17.1 16.4 19.4 21.5 22.4 9.6 4.1 5.8 6.2 Scholarshipsand bursaries 0.5 1.8 2.2 3.0 3.2 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.3 Schoolbus fares 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.4 0.5 0.0 2.4 2.2 Other 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Contributionto Regionaland InternationalOrganizations 2.3 2.0 2.9 2.4 2.9 3.5 3.3 4.2 5.0 OtherTransfers a/ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0

CapitalTransfers 29.6 34.5 35.3 44.0 40.3 27.8 34.9 34.6 33.9

Non-financialPublic Enterprises 26.3 30.4 31.0 33.4 31.2 25.3 27.6 29.0 29.2 NationalHousing Corporation 3.7 4.3 6.6 8.3 6.0 6.0 3.6 5.6 12.9 B'dosAgric. 0ev. Corp. b/ 0.5 3.8 0.2 0.8 5.1 3.1 4.2 2.8 2.8 Civil Aviation 9.3 11.5 10.1 3.6 2.4 0.2 0.0 2.5 6.5 VaterworksDeparteent 3.2 3.1 4.0 4.9 3.7 3.0 2.1 1.1 0.0 PostOffice 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.4 4.0 1.5 3.7 4.7 2.1 B'dosIndustrial Oev. Corp. 3.6 4.1 5.7 6.7 5.8 5.5 7.3 4.4 2.9 TransportBoard c/ 4.5 1.2 2.0 2.5 4.1 6.0 6.7 7.9 1.0 B'dosNarketing Corporation 1.5 2.4 0.4 2.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 OtherInstitutions 0.8 0.6 1.5 2.5 1.9 0.3 0.8 0.7 1.0 CavesAuthority 0.5 0.2 0.6 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Parksand beaches 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.8 0.7 1.0 PublicFinancial Institutions dl 2.5 2.2 1.6 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 TransfersAbroad 0.0 1.3 1.2 7.1 5.7 1.7 6.0 3.4 1.2 a/ Subsidyto thesugar industry in 1985116. bl 1990/81-82/B3includes expenditur on tle IntegratedRural Denlopment and Spring HNll Land Lea Schm. c/ Includestransfers from the transport fund. dl 1977/78includes transfers abroad.

Sources:linistry of Financeand Planning and mission etimate. - 59 -

PageI of 3 Table5.6s BARBADOS- CONSOLIDATE0 PUBLIC SECTOR, 1977/78 - 1985/06

(0B$d llion)

1977/78 1978/79 1979180 19801811901182 1982183 1993/84 1984/85 1985/86

CONSOLIDATEDPUBLICSECTOR

Currentrevenue 317.0 397.9 467.9 563.3 627.0 738.7 815.1 881.6 940.9 Currentexpenditure 287.2 323.9 389.3 487.2 572.1 659.2 695.8 790.6 846.9

Currentsurplus/deWiit 1-) 29.8 74.0 78.6 76.2 54.9 79.4 119.3 91.0 94.0

Capitalrevenue 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.6 0.5 2.2 14.9 9.0 Capitalexpenditure 87.2 72.9 95.0 144.2 178.4 177.5 158.0 168.4 172.7

Overallsurplus/deficit (-) -57.4 1.6 -15.9 -68.0-122.9 -97.6 -36.5 -62.5 -69.7

Financing(net) 57.4 -1.6 15.9 68.0 122.9 97.6 36.5 62.5 69.7

External 28.2 30.3 12.9 80.4 91.2 58.4 27.2 54.3 42.9 DkJestic 29.2 -31.9 3.0 -12.4 31.7 39.2 9.3 8.2 26.8

'MNERALBOVERNHENT

Currentrevenue 266.) ... 0 386.2 471.5 515.8 599.1 657.0 704.6 178.0 FromNFPEs 1.3 1.1 1.8 2.2 2.1 1.9 2.7 2.1 2.4 Current;xpenditure 241.2 266.8 317.6 401.2 465.0 534.5 555.4 639.7 702.4 ToNFPEs 10.6 11.5 16.2 27.7 28.5 21.5 18.0 17.4 19.9

Currentsurplus/deficit 1-) 25.5 69.2 68.6 70.3 50.9 64.6 10i.6 64.9 75.6

Capitalexpenditure &net lending 89.0 73.1 89.0 139.3 174.1 142.4 129.7 132.2 142.7 ToNFPEs 26.3 30.4 31.0 33.4 31.2 25.3 27.6 29.0 29.2

Overallsurplus/deficit (-) -62.5 -3.9 -19.4 -69.0 -123.3 -77.9 -28.1 -67.3 -67.1

Financing(net) 62.5 3.9 19.4 69.0 123.3 77.8 21.1 67.3 67.1

External 28.2 30.3 12.9 80.4 91.2 58.4 24.7 54.3 39.9 Domestic 34.3 -26.4 6.5 -11.4 32.1 19.4 3.4 13.0 27.2 - 60 -

Page2 of 3 Table5.6: BARBADOS- CONSCLIDATED PUILICSECTOR, 1977/78 - 1985/86

(B0$million)

1977/781978/79 1979/80 1980/811981/82 1992/93 1993/84 198495 1995U/l …------…------…------… --- Ia. CENTRALADNINISTRATION a/

Currentrevenue 260.6 330.2 379.9 465.7 511.0 595.1 655.1 694.7 771.3 FromNFPEs 1.3 1.1 1.8 2.2 2.1 1.9 2.7 2.1 2.4 Currentexpenditure 239.5 264.5 315.9 396.8 462.4 532.2 552.5 634.5 697.5 ToNFPEs 10.6 11.5 16.2 27.7 28.5 21.5 19.0 17.4 19.9

Currentsurplus/deficit (-) 21.1 65.7 63.9 66.9 48.6 62.9 102.6 60.2 73.8 _ ------_._ - - --- _-__-__-__-___-_

Capitalrevenue 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capitalexpenditure I netlending 95.9 72.2 85.9 141.9 173.4 142.4 129.5 132.2 142.7 ToNFPEs 26.3 30.4 31.0 33.4 31.2 25.3 27.6 29.0 29.2

Overallsurplus/deficit H-) -62.9 -6.5 -22.0 -75.0-124.8 -79.5 -26.9 -72.0 -69.9

Financing(net) 62.9 6.5 22.0 75.0 124.8 79.5 26.9 72.0 69.9

External 28.2 30.3 12.9 80.4 91.2 58.4 24.7 54.3 39.9 Domestic 34.7 -23.8 9.1 -5.4 33.6 21.1 2.2 17.7 29.0

lb. CENTRALSOVELNNEET

Currentrevenue 237.1 296.8 342.4 425.6 453.1 492.1 538.0 570.8 645.5 FrooNFPEs 1.3 1.1 1.8 2.2 2.1 1.9 2.7 2.1 2.4 Currentexpenditure 232.2 256.0 304.2 387.1 433.7 476.9 488.6 554.5 624.6 ToNFPEs 10.6 11.5 16.2 27.7 28.5 21.5 18.0 17.4 19.9 Toother Central Adnin. 1.9 3.4 3.3 7.6 2.4 9.5 12.2 13.3 15.9

Currentsurplus/deficit I-) 4.9 40. 39.2 38.5 19.4 15.2 49.4 16.3 20.9

Capitaltransfers fr.other gov't 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capitalexpenditure &net lending 85.9 72.2 95.8 141.9 173.3 141.2 129.3 131.9 142.5 ToNFPEs 26.3 30.4 31.0 33.4 31.2 25.3 27.6 29.0 29.2

Overallsurplus/deficit 1-) -79.1 -31.4 -47.6-103.3 -153.9 -126.0 -79.9 -115.6 -121.6

Financing(net) 79.1 31.4 47.6 103.3 153.9 126.0 79.9 115.6 121.6

External 28.2 30.3 12.9. 80.9 91.3 58.4 24.7 54.3 39.9 Domestic 50.9 1.1 34.7 22.4 62.6 67.6 55.2 61.3 81.7 - 61 -

Page3 of3 Table5.6: BARBADOS- CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SECTOR, 1977/78 - 1985/86

(MDDillion)

1977/781978/79 1979/80 1980/91 1981/82 1982/93 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86

II. CONSOLIDATEDNON-FINANCIAL PU8LIC ENTERPRISES

Currentrevenue 62.1 74.5 99.7 121.7 141.8 162.9 178.7 196.5 185.2 Froegeneral government 10.6 11.5 16.2 27.7 28.5 21.5 18.0 17.4 19.9 Currentexpenditure 57.8 69.6 89.6 115.9 137.7 149.1 161.0 170.4 166.9 ToCentral government 1.3 1.1 1.8 2.2 2.1 1.9 2.7 2.1 2.4

Currentsurplus/deficit (-) 4.3 4.8 10.0 5.9 4.1 14.8 17.7 26.1 18.4

Capitalrevenue 26.3 30.8 31.5 33.4 31.8 25.8 29.8 43.9 38.2 FromCentral governsent 26.3 30.4 31.0 33.4 31.2 25.3 27.6 29.0 29.2 Capitalexpenditure 25.6 30.2 38.0 38.3 35.5 60.4 55.9 65.2 59.2

Overallsurplus/deficit 5.0 5.5 3.5 1.0 0.4 -19.8 -8.4 4.9 -2.6

NetFinancing -5.0 -5.5 -3.5 -1.0 -0.4 19.8 8.4 -4.8 2.6

External(net) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 3.0 Doeestic(net) -5.0 -5.5 -3.5 -1.0 -0.4 19.8 5.9 -4.8 -0.4

… ______------…_ - __ _ _ a/Includes CentralGovernment, National Insurance Fund and Transport Fund.

Source:Ninistry of Financeand Planning, National Insurance Board, accounts of public enterprisesand *ission estimates. - 62 -

Sb 5.7s NAM. *cbk Swtw lzmmut Pra, hawUy, T~ced- PmrOjt*, 196u/85-1967/8 (3$ mW

AkoA ProJected 1994/85 1985/86 1985/8 - 1987/89 obtal Totald ternal Total htentml Jbtal Towernal Totall External ftL1ec-t WithVhumom

4.53 3.35 2.88 1.82 16.22 9.26 20.87 9.34 44.50 23.77 SprivvaUlLand Lam Project 0.54 0.32 0.21 0.13 0.48 .02 2.27 0.36 3.50 0.83 ScotlaudDistrlct Soll Caservation 3.87 2.32 0.92 0.55 2.61 0.80 2.16 0.60 9.56 4.27 rlidsom Fghtins Port - - 1.60 0.99 8.00 5.58 14.20 6.90 23.80 13.47 Poultry Production (roilor/Breedu) 0.12 0.71 0.15 0.15 5.13 2.86 2.24 1.48 7.64 5.20

Ehw 20.90 9.50 18.70 4.90 4.40 - "44.0 14.40

Petwol.. hpIomtin a&- lPINNOtI (llC) 20.90 9.50 18.70 4.90 4.40 - - - 44.00 14.40

2.00 1.35 10.60 6.57 44.30 24.06 42.96 24.01 99.86 55.99

Airport-Wst Comt lWy 1.27 0.80 2.43 1.46 25.38 12.80 21.19 10.41 50.27 25.47 " usIiod to CUeotPlat 0.13 0.45 0.17 0.11 12.00 7.00 9.35 5.50 21.65 13.06 Road M _ntuumead Pajbblitatim 0.60 0.10 8.00 5.00 6.92 4.26 12.42 8.10 27.94 17.46

Plrt - - 2.51 2.51 12.49 5.00 - - 15.00 7.51 omitaiurane - - 2.51 2.51 12.49 5.00 - - 15.00 7.51

Fh.atitm 0.88 - 1.0 0.50 9.00 6.92 15.48 10.72 26.36 18.14

!acatimi Poject II 0.88 - 1.00 0.50 9.00 6.92 15.48 10.72 26.36 18.14

Haatli 2.25 1.35 3.86 1.61 19.78 12.01 5.30 4.27 31.19 19.24

Q ELzabethEm 1pin aod GlebePolyclinic 2.25 1.35 3.86 1.61 19.78 12.01 5.30 4.27 31.19 19.24 lTtal B Projdct 30.56 15.55 39.55 17.91 106.19 57.25 84.61 48.34 260.91 139.05

Credits 11.41 9.15 14.81 12.73 17.56 14.34 12.91 7.09 56.69 43.31

Izhtra Credit Project (CBI) 5.65 5.65 9.70 9.70 9.65 9.65 - - 25.00 25.00 Swdmt RvlvingFund II (me) 1.16 0.70 0.21 0.13 1.32 0.19 1.81 1.09 4.50 2.11 Huin G0iuut Procp 4.60 2.80 4.90 2.90 3.59 2.10 8.10 3.60 21.19 11.40 nebol Credit iV(CB) - - - - 3.00 2.40 3.00 2.40 6.00 4.80 - 63 -

Table 5.7* 9MS. tlik strSe ,w_wt Prapm, .tatiuly. ThimaProjaa,- 1964/-1987/M ) m~

Actual f~c 1984/85 6 1S/87 _ -- ¶tal Total Ttabi l i hta2nalSta1 ll D*.lactel 0da

Projects for itch F1zt1zf

Agdi.- _0.50 - 1.50 1.00 6.48 4.09 8.48 5.09

Iqaegted L*veatock Prfttm o- - - - 1.50 1.00 - - 1.50 1.00 Ceralel danc Paeasrc laborary - - 0.50 - - - 3.00 2.00 3.50 2.00 grikulbral Dselout - - 3.48 2.09 3.48 2.09

Twurim - - - 1.00 1.00 - - 1.0 1.0

CoastalCiavatin - - - - 1.00 1.00 - - 1.OO 1.00

_tm - - - - 1.90 1.30 2.10 1.50 4.00 2.80

Natural Gas Pipullzi- - - - 1.90 1.30 2.10 1.50 4.00 2.80

BridptowmPRod l_wit and - - 0.90 0.82 1.29 0.74 6.08 3.64 8.27 5.20 Traffic l_met - - . i i0. 25 0.12 4.00 2.40 5.15 3.34 _Wont of Public pmwtuis - - - - 1.04 0.62 2.08 1.24 3.12 1.86

eailth 0.59 _ 3.69 2.30 2.00 1.65 9.62 7.00 15.90 10.95

Smuth%wt Coast Smeap 0.48 - 3.60 2.30 2.00 1.65 2.62 2.10 8.70 6.05 Ne Pydiiatrk lrpital 0.11 - 0.04 - - - 4.M0 2.80 4.15 2.80 Gerlatrfrlipital - - 0.05 - - - 3.00 2.10 3.05 2.10

_ - - - 0.80 0.50 6.50 4.02 7.30 4.52

Uzbintaw I1ca Howig - _ _ - 0.80 0.50 4.00 2.40 4.80 2.90 Wbelopt of Gram Hll Area ------2.50 1.62 2.50 1.62

Total NOWPio.tctS 0.59 0.00 5.09 3.12 8.49 6.19 30.78 20.25 44.95 29.56

oed-ts - 4.00) 3.20 4.00 3.20 idustra Cft (Ce*rl BDw& ------4.00 3.20 4.00 3.20

Total 31.15 15.55 44.64 21.03 114.68 63.44 115.39 68.59 305.86 168.61

bwing 30.56 15.55 39.55 17.91 106.19 57.25 84.61 48.34 260.91 139.05 New 0.59 0.00 5.09 3.12 8.49 6.19 30.78 20.25 44.95 29.56

Source: Ewawdc Affatto Divisui ad mlaiim estiastes. - 64 -

Tablo 6.1t BAROADOS- SUMNARYACCOUNTS OF THE BANKINGSYSTEN, 1980-65

(BD$ million)

------aain n-Docsmbor31------1960 1991 1962 1983 1984 1965

Not InternationalReserves a/ 151.0 111.0 142.0 157.4 164.0 229.0

CentralBank (net) 146.3 135.1 151.4 169.6 147.0 176.0 Assets 164.1 206.9 251.6 263.1 258.0 269.4 Liabilities 17.6 71.8 100.2 94.5 111.0 113.4 ComeorcialBanks (not) 4.7 -24.1 -9.4 -11.2 17.0 53.0

Net Overseas Operations -3q.4 -44.6 -49.3 -52.8 -52.6 -53.5

Not DomesticAssets 686.4 696.6 938.4 1016.5 1096.6 1179.9 n aaaaafann____----- __ __------______Net Claimson PublicSector 50.2 103.0 146.9 103.6 130.9 107.5 Not CentralSovernment b/ 205.4 246.4 308.1 262.7 319.4 277.4 Not Other SeneralSovernment -37.2 -33.6 -43.4 -48.6 -50.5 -52.3 Net OtherDecentralized Agencies -22.4 -22.7 -16.2 -29.0 -25.7 -20.6 Net SocialSecurity Fund -95.6 -89.1 -99.6 -102.5 -112.5 -96.8 OfficialCapital and Surplus -20.0 -20.0 -20.0 -20.0 -20.) -20.0 Creditto Rest of FianancialSystes 47.4 63.3 64.8 64.9 119.7 112.2 Creditto PrivateSector 593.0 723.1 772.6 661.0 603.5 926.6 ExportCredit Suarantee -3.7 -5.7 -6.6 -8.3 -3.6 -2.8 NonsonetaryInter'l Organizations -2.6 -1.6 -1.0 -2.2 -2.0 -1.7 Not UnclassifiedAssets -5.4 -10.7 -65.6 -23.8 -40.1 47.6 Met InterbankFloat 27.5 27.4 27.1 21.3 30.2 8.5

CounterpartUnrequited Foreign ,______Excharje 16.2 1868 17.6 16.9 15.9 17.8

MWLT ForeignLiabilities c/ 29.6 77.7 60.4 117.4 109.9 134.3

Liabilitiesto Rest of Financial

System 41.1 58.3 62.6 79.2 92.9 68.5

Liabilitiesto PrivateSector 711.1 610.4 670.1 907.6 991.1 1114.8

Currencyoutside Banks 99.1 111.3 110.6 114.1 116.1 123.5 DesandDeposits 126.3 118.5 117.0 132.9 136.9 167.4 Ouasi-liquidLiabilities 472.1 567.2 629.5 653.6 714.3 802.3 Private and CapitalSurplus 12.6 13.4 13.0 7.1 21.9 21.6 a/ Includesmodium-tere foreign liabilities of the ContralBank of Barbados. b/ Loans in foreigncurrency to the Governmentby the FirstNational Bank of Chicago,"hose branchoffice in Barbadosclosed in 1976,are treatedas foreignborrowing throughout. c/ Includes counterpart depositsof the Bovernsent'sforoign assets.

Sourcesa Central Bank of Barbados; IMF. - 65 -

Table 6.2, BARDADOS- SUNNARYACCOUNTS OF THE NONETARYAUTHORITIES, 1990-985 (35Omilion) ------Dec----b------Deceber31…------1990 1981 1962 1993 1994 1965 Not International Reserves 146.3 135.1 151.4 166.6 147.0 176.0

Assets 164.1 206.9 251.6 263.1 256.0 299.4 Liabilitiesa/ 17.6 71.8 100.2 94.5 111.0 113.4

Net DooesticAssets 51.9 124.8 113.4 122.3 144.2 127.9

Not Claioson PublicSector 38.5 66.4 93.6 64.1 60.9 6.6 Net CentralGovernment 73.2 100.2 133.5 110.0 107.3 55.9 Asets b/ 87.4 120.6 134.0 129.6 121.4 127.5 Liabilities 14.2 26.6 0.5 19.8 14.1 71.6 Net Other SoneralGovernment -30.3 -32.0 -36.3 -42.4 -42.5 -44.3 Net Other DecentralizedAgencies -2.4 -1.0 -1.8 -2.4 -2.4 -3.3 Not SocialRecurity Fund -2.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.5 -1.5 OfficialCapital and Surplus -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 Creditto ComeorcialBanks 1.2 7.5 17.9 22.1 17.9 1.9 Creditto Rest of FinancialSystem 23.6 49.1 42.8 37.4 63.4 55.6 BarbadosDevelopment Bank shares 0.0 2.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 ExportCredit Guarantee -3.7 -5.7 -6.6 -9.3 -3.6 -2.8 NonmonetaryInter'l Organizations -2.6 -1.6 -1.0 -2.2 -2.0 -1.7 Net UnclassifiedAssets 6.7 19.1 -26.3 15.2 12.6 73.0

SDR Allocation 16.2 16.8 17.8 16.9 15.9 17.8

N< ForeignLiabilities 18.0 62.1 59.9 71.5 64.3 57.3 Liabilitiesto CS(USAIDSOP loan)a/ 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 2.5 2.5 ------

Liab. to rost of Financialsystem 65.9 67.7 76.5 91.4 90.4 102.7

CommercialBanks 59.6 66.8 75.5 79.9 87.3 97.9 Rest of BankingSystem 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rest of FinancialInstitutions 2.6 0.9 1.0 1.5 3.1 4.9

Liabilitiesto PrivateSector 96.1 111.3 110.6 114.1 118.1 123.5 ______------Currencyin Circulation 98.1 111.3 110.6 114.1 118.1 123.5

e______e______e______-__- ______a/ Includesmodium-tore foreign liabilities of the CentralBank of Barbados. b/ 1960 includesCentral Dank subscriptionto Trinidadand Tobagodollar loan.

SourcesaCentral Bank of BarbadosiINF. - 66 -

Table6.3a BARBADOS- SUNNARYACCOUNTS OF THE CONMERCIALBANKS, 1980-65 (IDSmillion)

_eeee----_ e e_-. ceember 31…- 1980 1981 1902 1983 1984 1965

Not InternationalReserves 4.7 -24.1 -9.4 -li.2 17.0 53.0 Assets 47.7 43.9 46.4 46.5 60.0 67.8 Liabilitiesa/ 43.0 67.9 55.6 57.7 63.0 34.6

Net OverseasOperations -39.4 -44.6 -49.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.5 Assets 5.1 6.8 6.4 7.1 12.7 13.1 Liabilities 44.5 51.4 55.7 59.9 65.5 66.6 Monet.Reserves & CurrencyHoldings 62.9 67.2. 76.0 01.6 93.1 89.5

Net DomesticAssets 565.0 709.1 755.4 934.9 680.0 964.1

Not Claimson PublicSector 30.8 60.4 83.5 66.4 96.8 122.0 Net CentralGovernment 131.7 147.4 174.1 172.6 211.3 220.0 Assets 142.6 161.0 197.9 186.4 233.0 240.5 Liabilities 11.1 13.6 13.8 15.8 21.7 20.5 Net OtherGeneral Sovernment -6.9 -1.6 -7.1 -6.2 -9.0 -8.0 Net OtherDecentralized Agencies -20.0 -20.9 -16.4 -25.6 -23.3 -17.5 Net SocialSecurity Fund -74.0 -64.5 -67.1 -74.4 -63.2 -72.5 OfficialCapital and Surplus -9.0 -9.0 -8.0 -8.0 -8.0 -8.0 Creditto Rest Of BankingSystem 1.6 5.0 646 5.6 0.4 1.1 Creditto Rest of FinancialSystom 23.6 34.2 42.0 47.5 56.3 56.6 PublicInstitutions 15.6 17.9 19.4 23.0 35.2 41.2 PrivateInstitutions 9.0 16.3 23.6 24.5 21.1 15.4 Creditto PrivateSector 521.4 618.0 645.0 729.8 741.9 769.4 Not UnclassifiedAssets -9.6 -21.2 -31.2 -30.8 -41.7 -2.5 Net InterbankFloat 24.2 20.7 17.5 24.4 26.3 25.5

M< ForeignLiabilities a/ 9.8 13.3 19.7 45.1 44.9 76.2

Liabilities to Monetary Authorities 1.2 5.4 16.2 26.1 24.3 15.1 Liab. to Rest of FinancialSystem 40.2 59.8 68.4 69.7 106.5 98.6

Trust Companies 1.9 1.4 6.6 11.0 16.7 15.0 PublicNon-bank Institutions 6.2 14.9 20.0 19.7 22.5 29.0 PrivateNon-bank Institutions 32.1 42.5 41.8 59.0 67.3 54.6

Liabilitiesto PrivateSector 562.0 630.1 666.4 692.9 761.7 963.2

DeOand Deposits 126.3 119.5 117.0 132.9 136.6 167.4 Time,Savings & Foreign Currency Deposits 421.6 498.9 541.1 554.9 605.7 676.9 PrivateCapital and Surplus 11.9 12.7 10.3 5.1 19.2 18.9 a/ Loansin foreigncurrenct to tho Boverneent by the First National Dank of Chicago, whose branchoffice in Barbadosclosed in 1979,are treatedas foreignborrowing throughout.

SourcesiCentral Bank of BarbadoslIMF. - 67 -

Table6.4a BARBADOS- DETAILEDACCOUNTS OF THE TRUSTCOMPANIES, 1990-85

(ID$ million) ------_------_------__------__-----_--_------e------December31------1980 1991 1992 1993 1994 1985 Onetary Reserves & Currency --- _---_------_ Holdings 3.5 2.2 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

Oet DomesticAssets 50.9 74.1 96.1 107.1 120.5 130.0

Not Claims on Public Sector -19.1 -23.9 -30.2 -26.9 -26.8 -21.3 Not CentralGovernment 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.0 1.5 Net SocialSecurity Fund -19.6 -24.6 -30.7 -27.0 -27.8 -22.8 Creditto Commercialfanks 1.9 1.4 6.6 11.0 16.7 15.0 Creditto PrivatoSector 71.6 105.1 127.8 131.2 141.6 159.2 MortgageLoans (private) 57.9 72.2 79.8 79.1 86.8 94.4 NortgagoLoans (other) 4.7 5.5 5.1 4.9 4.3 4.0 MortgageLoans (industrialand commercial) 8.1 9.9 11.7 15.6 19.2 19.4 OtherLoans 0.9 17.5 32.2 31.6 32.3 41.4 Not UnclassifiedAssets -3.5 -8.6 -8.1 -9.2 -11.0 -22.9

N<Foreign Liabilities 1.6 2.3 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8

Liabilitiesto ComoorcialBanks 1.6 5.0 6.6 5.6 8.4 1.1 ______n______------__- ___

Liabilitiesto PrivateSector 51.0 69.0 91.1 100.7 111.3 128.1

Time Deposits 50.3 69.3 89.4 99.7 109.6 125.4 PrivateCapital and Surplus 0.7 0.7 2.7 2.0 2.7 2.7

SourcessCentral Bank of Barbados;IMF. - 68 -

Table6.Si BARBADOS - CONNERCIALBANKS SELECTED INTEREST RATES, 1960-95 (Percentage per Annum) Period Prime Ended Savings 3 months 6 months 12 months Lending …______1968 4.0 4.0 4.5 4.5 8.0 1949 4.5 6.0 6.5 6.5 9.5 1970 4.5 6.5 6.75 6.75 8.5 1971 4.5 6.25 6.5 6.5 8.5 1972 3.5 5.5 6.0 6.0 8.5 1973 3.5-6.0 7.0-10.0 7.0-10.0 7.0-10.0 10.0-11.0 1974 4.5-9.0 7.5-10.0 7.5-10.0 7.5-10.0 10.0-12.0 1975 3.0-7.0 3.5-6.5 4.5-6.5 5.0-7.0 9.0-10.0 1976 2.5-7.0 3.5-4.5 4.0-5.0 4.25-5.0 7.5-9.5 1977 2 5-5.0 3.5-5.0 4.0-5.0 3.75-5.0 7.5-9.0 1978 3.0-5.0 3.5-5.0 4.0-5.0 3.75-6.0 8.0-8.5 1979 3.0-5.0 3.5-4.5 4.0-5.0 3.75-5.5 9.0-8.5 1980 5.0-5.25 5.0-5.5 5.25-6.0 5.5-6.5 9.0-9.5 1991 8.0 8.5-9.5 7.0-9.0 7.8-9.3 13.0-14.0 1992 6.0 6.5-9.5 6.5-10.0 7.0-10.0 10.0-13.5 1983 5.0-5.5 5.5-7.5 6.0-8.0 6.0-8.0 10.0-11.0 1994 5.0-5.5 5.0-7.0 6.0-7.0 6.0-7.5 10.5-11.5 1985 4.0-4.5 4.0-5.5 4.25-5.5 4.5-5.5 8.75-9.5

…------____------…---______Sources. East Caribbean Currency Authorityl Central Dank of - 69 -

Table7.1 IRAUAO- RETAIL PRICE INIEI, ;ANY 1979- IECD 16

---- -. -----. -. ------_ - -....-- ...... _ _ .... _...... _...__ Alcoholic Nhuseold hldical Education, 0everages Fuel OperationsClothingi I PEs Retreatios& Al Food& TobaccoIlsiui Lilt I Supplies Footwaroil ct Transpwtation Niscellanous Itm

hights 43.2 9.4 3.1 4.2 9.6 5.t 4.0 4.6 3.9 100.0

AnnualAvrep

1960 103.9 104.6 102.0 10.9 103.0 105.? 103.0 103.0 102.0 103.5 1981 119.3 114.9 124.9 107.9 114.4 124.2 115.9 117.1 115.2 119.4 1982 128.0 130.4 154.0 110.7 123.2 129.4 134.6 139.0 121.5 130.8 1993 131.4 144.2 168.3 119.1 127.4 132.3 144.8 147.0 129.3 137.7 1994 136.6 153.2 182.6 122.2 125.4 131.4 141.7 154.8 135.8 144.1 195 143.7 156.1 191.7 120.9 123.2 130.2 16.3 159.5 137.9 149.7

Endof Period

1979 98.4 96.3 91.9 93.7 98.5 97.7 99.2 94.2 98.3 97.9 1980 110.4 112.9 122.1 107.7 100.2 115.8 106.4 105.4 107.3 111.6 1991 124.5 115.9 148.6 105.4 111.6 130.5 125.8 123.8 122.3 125.3 1982 127.6 135.8 163.6 119.8 126.3 128.5 142.2 144.8 123.9 133.9 9983 134.6 147.9 110.5 122.7 127.9 133.1 146.5 148.6 134.6 141.2 1984 142.0 152.0 194.4 125.0 124.1 132.7 163.6 157.0 135.5 148.4 1985 148 155.5 200.1 119.0 124.0 128.9 165.4 170.1 138.5 151.9

. Cefse. ----.… a e ee e ee e e. .e...------Sources:Bwbados Statistical Service. - 70 -

Table 7.2: BARBADOS- WASE INDEX,1977-85 a/

(1980* 100)

1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1903 1984 1985 e------_------__------_------__------__------All Sectors 70.0 77.5 83.2 100.0 110.5 123.0 130.1 142.0 148.9

Hotels 75.0 80.0 98.0 100.0 134.0 134.0 146.0 151.8 161.7 Distribution 76.0 76.0 76.0 100.0 100.0 138.0 139.0 164.1 164.1 Sugar 65.0 79.0 79.0 100.0 100.0 107.2 120.0 135.1 135.1 Transport 79.0 00.0 100.0 100.0 133.0 137.0 157.0 156.6 170.4 Bovernment 64.0 76.9 77.0 100.0 100.0 111.0 113.0 126.6 133.0 Construction 63.0 74.0 74.0 100.0 119.0 119.0 118.0 127.9 143.2 Telephone 60.0 74.0 74.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 120.0 126.6 153.2 Electricity 79.0 79.0 100.0 100.0 129.9 129.9 156.0 156.3 171.9 Longshoremen 62.0 77.0 77.0 100.0 100.0 119.0 119.0 137.5 137.5 Manufacturing 74.4 79.0 99.9 100.0 113.8 129.1 140.4 144.6 151.0 Sargents 64.0 77.0 77.0 100.0 100.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 137.8 Beverages 76.0 80.0 100.0 100.0 137.7 137.7 163.0 169.4 169.4 Food 77.0 90.0 97.0 100.0 137.0 137.0 156.0 159.0 171.1 Chemicals 59.0 69.0 76.0 100.0 105.0 129.0 134.0 155.2 158.7 Electronicsb/ 89.0 83.0 101.0 100.0 110.0 120.0 136.0 141.2 146.3 …------_-----_------__------__----- / The index for each sector is based on a sisple average of wages in representativejob categories. Sectorweights are based on share in total employmentwhen available,and on share in contributionto GDP when not. Includesonly wages negotiatedthrough collective bargaining except for the electronicsindustry. bI Based on a surveyconducted by the CentralBank of th4 five largestestablishments.

Sources:IMFP Ministryof Labor. - 71 -

Table*.ol 9ARBDAW - PRODUCTIONOF SELECTEDAGRICULTURAL CONNODITIES, 1977-95

Units ('000) 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1904 1985 …ae______------Exportagriculture -______Sugarcane(a) NT 1045 995 1052 1204 962 766 705 813 794 Onions(b) Kg. 474 743 545 472 396 432 764 549 776 Peanuts(c) Kg. 37 51 ...... - 60 19 32 52 Cotton(d) Kg. 27 16 17 12 - - - 7 37 Domesticfood crops ______Yams Kg. 4995 9528 8315 7817 4064 4500 2300 3195 2943 Sweetpotatoes Kg. 1074 4990 2255 4705 3048 3700 2800 1957 2066 Beets Kg. 382 394 931 354 507 480 387 230 350 Pumpkins Kg. 67 283 135 - 527 493 576 209 362 Carrots Kg. 497 1914 2143 2395 2145 2416 1940 1099 844 Stringbeans Kg. 179 191 296 521 510 509 226 394 384 Tomatoes Kg. 122 720 702 1636 1055 1209 297 496 372 Cucumbers Kg. 590 1755 966 - 1909 1701 167 307 321 Cabbage Kg. 260 916 1130 1717 1399 1577 531 1074 767 Livestockproducts

Pigs (c) Kg. 454 1336 902 919 942 1300 713 755 938 Cows& calves(c) Kg. 150 249 324 414 396 362 326 273 245 Soats& sheep (c) Kg. 34 21 60 59 50 21 30 21 22 Poultry(c) Kg. 3719 4274 5273 5248 4000 6700 6133 6550 6257 Eggs (c) Kg. 1701 1814 1600 1040 1350 1047 1890 1990 1297 milk (e) Kg. 2641 2993 7463 7500 7146 7014 7758 9730 9331

------_------_------,------__------__------Notes Due to a revisionof the domesticfood crops based on sore extensivesample surveys, the series beginning in 1983 is not comparable to earlieryears. Figure not available.

Sources: (a) Ministry of AgriculturelSugar Producers association. (b) Ministry of Agiculturel Barbados Agricultural Society. (c) Ministryof Agiculturel Central Bank estimates (Dead weight for pigs,cows, calves,goats, sheep and poultry). (d) AgriculturalDevelopeent Corporation. (t)Annual reports, Barbados DairyIndustries Ltd. - 72 -

Table9.2t BARBADOS- SUGARSTATISTICS$ 1977-85

1977 1976 1979 1980 1961 1992 1983 1984 1985 ______…______.______..______.______Areaof canesreaped ('000hoctares) 15.9 15.6 15.9 16.1 15.8 15.9 14.1 14.3 13.9 Tons of cane. milled('000) 895 895 1052 1204 962 766 705 613 792 Tonneyield (Ton*can/hectare reaped) 56.6 56.6 66.2 74.8 60.9 46.5 50.0 56.9 57.3 Rainfall(inches) 45.4 54.5 66.8 52.5 66.5 47.1 49.0 59.5 54.5

Sugarproduction ('000 tons-raw value)124.1 104.1 110.5 136.6 97.5 99.1 85.6 100.4100.3

Sugaryield (tonscane/tons sugar) 7.2 9.6 8.9 B.8 9.9 6.4 8.5 8.1 7.9 Numberof factoriesin operation a 9 6 a 7 6 6 6 6 Exports('000 tons-white value b/) 99.5 77.8 83.0 113.0 58.6 69.5 67.3 79.9 77.6 ----- …______------__ -______- to EEC 62.5 59.8 40.0 56.1 44.0 49.3 48.4 .

- to US 37.0 16.5 34.6 55.0 14.4 16.0 13.8

- to others 0.0 1.5 0.4 1.9 0.2 3.2 5.1 a/ Preliminary. b/ Sugarwhite value is about93X of sugarraw value. Sources:Barbados Sugar Producers' Associationl and AnnualOverisas Trade Yearbooks. - 73 -

Table 9.3: BARBADOS- PRODUCTIONOF SELECTEDNANUFACTURED 8OODS, 1977-65

1977 1979 1979 1980 1961 1902 1983 1994 1965

Food Products & Beverages('000 units) ------Lard (pounds) 2733 3264 2775 3204 4864 3328 3151 2464 2233 Margarine (Pounds) 4333 5205 4574 4933 6999 5787 .7693 6120 5696 Biscuits (pounds) 8475 8213 8108 8444 7602 7412 7131 6441 4449 Hacaroni (pounds) 2247 2419 3224 3931 4279 3999 3645 3401 3333 Animal Feeds (pounds) 84524 79004 97240 87501 99714 109346 95404 94329 99047 Nilk Products (pounds) 21337 21441 21703 21944 20573 18917 19275 19047 20400 Rua (gallons) 2344 2350 1440 2237 1511 1239 1289 1244 1818 Beer (gallons) 1406 1990 1423 1807 2029 1939 1962 1526 1444 Halt Beverages (gallons) 493 953 641 726 812 793 904 773 729 CarbonatedBeverages (gals.) 3875 4047 4129 4103 4312 3401 3572 3412 3210 Cigarettes (pounds) 418 505 507 494 573 597 531 524 430

Chemicals,Metal & ElectricalProducts ('000) ------..------oxygen (cubicfeet) 3107 3299 3391 4009 4393 4520 4782 4709 4517 Acetylene(cubic feet) 745 764 762 958 1023 1147 1157 1111 1077 CarbonDioxide (pounds) 676 850 759 090 655 513 614 705 710 Paints(gallons) 272 303 331 415 364 401 372 418 330 Nails (pounds) 201 329 375 293 423 320 352 150 320 BarbedWire (pounds) 131 140 136 179 490 419 168 454 300 StorageBatteries (number) 11343 13856 15675 20861 20902 20502 16754 14121 11515

PetroleumProd. ('000gal.) 48998 49856 54544 56910 56044 59734 54458 58996 42548

Gasoline 13763 13979 14424 14554 15441 14906 15446 14940 15556 Diesel 9946 10400 11301 13117 13260 12830 12742 12113 10369 Gas Oil 704 714 642 329 149 104 5 14 1 Fuel Oil 21739 20852 24163 25464 26191 28089 25400 29173 33846 Kerosene 2594 2514 2490 2033 1933 1690 1592 1544 1541 Asphalt 1252 1199 1302 1420 1073 1115 1273 1082 1233

Electricity(million kwh) 244 269 296 310 327 330 354 360 364

NaturalGas (mln.cubic ft.) 166 339 412 469 284 309 387 688 697

CrudeOil ('000barrels) 124 274 284 305 211 259 402 435 679 ------e______------

…______-______-______a/ Freshmilk equivalent. Source:Barbados Statistical Service. - 74 -

Table 9.4: BARBADOS- MANUFACTURINSPRODUCTION INDICES, 1975-86

(Average 1982 * 100)

July 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 ------1985 1986 …------__------_ Total Industries 103.7 100.0 104.4 108.2 104.6 101.8 117.9 ------…______------Mining and Quarrying 100.1 100.0 118.5 161.6 174.0 180.1 163.9 Electricityand Gas 98.3 100.0 116.1 121.7 130.2 132.4 140.3 Manufacturing 104.6 100.0 102.1 103.2 97.2 93.2 112.3 Food 116.0 100.0 99.3 99.7 101.3 95.6 109.1 Beveragesand Tobacco 109.9 100.0 98.2 90.4 90.9 96.5 123.5 WearingApparel 102.9 100.0 106.2 110.7 93.4 82.2 90.0 Nooden Furniture 124.5 100.0 116.8 115.9 101.5 111.0 96.4 Chemicals 107.2 100.0 97.2 83.9 74.6 60.1 117.3 PetroleumProducts 100.0 100.0 97.5 99.5 103.7 115.7 123.7 Other Non-metallic MineralProducts 134.2 100.0 84.3 77.8 87.2 110.6 155.2 ElectronicComponents 69.0 100.0 108.2 141.0 133.3 109.0 142.8 Other 108.9 100.0 102.8 95.2 97.0 88.5 100.9 …______-______SourcetBarbados Statistical Service. - 75 -

Table 8.5I DARBADOS- SELECTEDINDUSTRIAL EXPORTS BY DESTINATION,1981-03

(DDS*illion)

Trinidad Other Total All & Tobago CARICONCARICON U.G.A U.K. Other Total

Electrical & Telecom 1981 0.2 0.5 0.7 78.8 0.6 3.7 83.6 1982 1.0 0.5 1.5 81.5 0.5 50.1 133.6 1983 0.9 0.4 1.3 127.3 0.4 160.7 309.7

Engineering Products 1981 7.4 10.3 17.7 5.2 0.4 2.3 25.6 1982 8.1 11.8 19.9 9.9 0.3 14.2 46.3 1983 7.3 10.9 18.2 16.8 0.3 1.3 34.6

Transport equipment 1981 1.2 1.5 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.0 4.8 1982 0.7 1.4 2.1 0.3 0.3 1.3 4.0 1983 0.7 1.0 1.7 1.4 0.1 1.0 4.2 Equipmentfor data processing and officemachines 1981 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 1982 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 1983 0.0 0.6 0.6 35.1 0.0 0.3 36.0

Scientificequipment 1981 0.1 0.4 0.5 6.4 0.0 0.3 7.2 1992 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 1983 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.0 2.1

Chesicals (excl. medicinals, cons. pharm.) 1981 4.2 7.6 11.8 0.1 0.0 4.2 16.1 1982 4.1 3.8 7.9 0.0 0.0 9.9 17.8 1983 5.8 7.1 12.9 0.0 0.0 4.8 17.7

Synthetictextiles 1981 2.7 0.2 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.1 1982 3.7 0.1 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 1983 3.6 0.2 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6

Total 1981 15.8 21.3 37.1 92.1 1.6 10.7 141.5 1982 18.2 19.1 37.3 91.9 1.1 77.9 209.2 1983 18.7 20.5 39.2 181.0 0.6 189.1 410.1

Notes In 1982, there was a large increase in exports of electricalproducts to PuertoRico from 30D1.5million to 3D$45.1million.

SourcesBarbados Statistical Servicel and IndustrialDevelopment Corporation. - 76 -

Table8.6: AR 5 - TERS^RICE9 1977-fl

fit. 1977 1978 1979 198 1931 192 1983 194 1985 ------b------l f Materconsue (in. liters) 3445 39741 3864 0107 40 320 440 42220 42380

Meteredwrvicn 742 12115 77l 8240 615 736 3870 900 9740 Domstic& standpost vastag 27103 26926 31013 31667 3205 30641 3760 32120 32640

Iater sles (I0O00) 3681 456 5297 7680 1t571 17100 21949 20 29434

Fixedrate 2361 2533 2989 4824 5271 9500 92 11273 11415 etere supply 1200 1821 219 2849 5300 7600 12972 16459 17592 toerrent 120 182 109 7 0 0 0 0 0 other 0 0 0 0 0 0 205 520 427

Investaet (BtI'000) 3200 3100 4000 4900 3700 3000 2943 4547 13041

e-.=_- - _------_ too not available

SourcessBarbados Mater Authority (formerly Water Wowks Departuut) arbaos Statistical Service. - 77 -

TableS.7 O S 1TOMWTA MPR40S/80//1 TRSACIS VAINTI US

(US '0O0)

US 1916 1892 1OU 1914 1N iqiort Dutiable US Outiable US Dutiable US Dutiable US utiable US Systn Volvo Volue Value Value Valu Valw Valuv Valu Value Vat

t'lty

Bwrtwrs, su_pewers, bd suporting prants 807 3784 4955 4353 53 4618 5870 22 3716 697 09 Oftlee machIne 807 1125 all 202 1319 3287 2220 28 2147 3118 2314 aeraters, autora, trner fermars,rctfilers CBI ------25 - Capacitors C81 ------S5o - 729 - bItdt., relays, fuses 8 844 70 29 514 172 227 152 164 1t 37 eoults, trmninal$ 0 411 - 1175 - 25749 - 3755 - 1472 SB _ - - . - - 645 - 144 Rwaltore 807 75 1781 3274 1150 2011 so 245 105 45 13 Si - - - - - 4055 - W5 - Autovoitge reglatore 807 40 24 95 62 271 189 218 130 140 91 SI _ _ - - - iIS Electra I latea, tran stoe o"1.moductors J01 42 178 11316 40246 18107 89051 3085 12 640/ 21220 Inwulate ondeutors, 807 65 27 291 122 446 2ai 40 422 192 53 wirlngsets SBi - - - - 9 - Electical articles 07 2164 147 3755 1041 55CQ 1657 2433 65 472 201 I1SFP CP 7 - 316 - 31 - 2312 - 110S - Glow 807 1460 2106 S85 1095 1413 17S9 197 2a 2303 J Mswrlag, testing, W0 902 - 107 - 108 - 1688 - 1480 - cotrollIng lntrwats Cal ------24 Fisbhngt"is 7 - - - - - 3 - Jewelry drelated rtleis 0w 251 102 - 56 - S - 11 -

807 Total 801 A1863 83 30113 55900 4327 111529 44118 15197 5163 4369 0 Total 0w 15074 - * 8680 - 35059 - 47742 - 15#S -

Si Total aU ------1311 - 11382 -

OREL TOTAL 3140 32500 373 55900 T1M6 111529 104171 1197 501S6 45

Metes Articles 806/87 prOvide tIt gods my be not abrad for usably ad return to th US (Including Purto Rice) aud that tiI value of am US good esxported stall be sutracted trw thmvala of tt returning assold prodwut In amsieng dty to be paid.

Y8 SbrtIng April 1895, certain saul-cooductors frw Mot Fvod Nlationl (Including Barbedos)ww* mqttd frailS iet dotlee. Dats awaIlable relate only to Jairy-breb 19. Total US orts of mi-oo.dutors from BarbadosIn 1915 _bd to U1812omIlISO of whlab a ostlated U9 mIIIIcn would av ben dutiable value addsd Lnt exports trw Barbados).

smu TheFlgstaff t ntItute Jornel, July 1965. - 78 -

Table9.1. BARBADOS- TOURISMSTATISTICS, 1979 - 65

1979 1980 1981 1962 1903 1904 1985

Total tourist days ('000)a/ 3471 3930 3486 2632 2430 2710 2375 Stnyover arrivals ('000) 370.9 349.9 352.4 303.0 329.3 367.7 359.1 Cruise-shiparrivals ('000) 110.1 156 1.35.6 110.8 102.5 99.2 112.2 Averagelength of stay (days)b/ 9.4 10.2 9.5 6.3 7.7 7.1 4.3 Total bad capacitV ('000) 11.6 13.4 14.1 14.1 14.3 14.1 14.0 led occupancyrates, ll establisheents(2) 74.4 45.3 54.0 45.5 46.7 45.1 39.5 Touristexpenditure/head/day (US$) 54.9 43.9 75.1 95.4 95.7 103.5 114.1

Total touristexpenditure (U8$ million) 201.5 251.0 241.9 251.1 251.6 200.4 275.8

(Annualpercentage change)

Totaltourist days 27.3 7.1 -11.3 -24.5 -0.1 3.0 -12.4 Stayovervisitors 17.1 -0.3 -4.7 -13.8 6.1 12.0 -2.3 Cruise-shippassengers -12.4 42.4 -13.4 -16.4 -7.5 -3.3 13.1 Touristexpenditures 49.3 24.4 4.3 -4.1 0.2 11.4 -1.4 Daily expenditure/head 17.2 14.4 17.* 27.0 0.3 6.2 12.2

(As percentageof SOP)

Total tourist*xpenditure 29.9 29.9 27.5 25.2 23.3 24.4 22.3

(As percentof total visitorarrivelsi

By countryof residence UnitedStates 24.6 23.2 21.1 24.9 34.7 38.1 41.2 Canada 25.0 23.0 19.6 19.4 14.2 10.3 19.7 CARICON 20.5 22.6 24.4 27.0 25.6 22.9 20.0 UnitedKingdom 13.3 15.2 20.4 14.8 14.5 12.4 10.8 Other 14.4 15.9 14.0 11.7 9.0 3.1 8.3

By intendedlength of stay I - 7 days 47.6 47.9 45.1 49.5 53.4 56.5 58.3 C - 14 days 29.6 30.4 32.1 31.2 28.3 24.3 27.4 15 - 30 days 19.3 17.5 13.9 15.4 14.7 11.7 10.9 Over30 days 1.7 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.5 3.5 3.4 Unspocifled 1.4 2.3 1.4 1.0 1.0 0C0 0.0 a/ Stayoverarrivals multiplied by averagelength of stay plus cruiso-shippassengers. assumesaverage longht of stay of touristsin establishoentssbich are not surveyedis the sass as that for surveyedestablishments. b/ Applies to touristsstaying in surveyedestablitshents only. Ta*ists stayingin establishmentsthat are not surveyedrepresent about one third 0 total stayoverarrivals. cl Beginning in 1984,the '15 - 30 days'category becomes '15 - 23 days, *Over30 days' represents'29 - 132 days* and the 'Unspecified'catogory is eliminated.

Bources.Barbados Statistical Servicel Central lank of uarbodos;and missionestimates. - 79 -

Table 9.2: BARBADOS- VISITORARRIVALS BY COUNTRYOF RESIDENCE,1977-85

Countryof Residence 1977 1978 1979 1900 1981 1982 1993 1994 1995

USA 70389 85473 91354 95971 74472 75511 113989 140202148093

Canada 83740 90992 92745 84934 69897 59619 53198 67307 70573

UK 25841 36342 49430 56226 72090 51145 47662 46274 38822

ContinentalE 22870 30915 41031 38354 29621 21588 17334 17234 16668

Trinidad 22902 25189 39279 45114 43839 45046 47662 43023 32526

Guyana 4552 6048 10147 10833 12247 10164 11159 12899 12364

Leeward& Vin 19450 22040 23443 26435 29802 23372 22228 24751 23307

Jamaica 2442 2268 3098 3026 3247 3138 3569 3784 3566

Venezuela 5914 6438 6515 5411 4754 3909 2339 1503 1271

Others 11574 11179 13975 13611 13622 10403 9186 10685 11945

Total 269674 316883370916 369915 352591 303795 328325 367652 359135

(In Percent)

USA 26.1 27.0 24.6 23.2 21.1 24.9 34.7 38.1 41.2

Canada 31.1 28.7 25.0 23.0 19.9 19.6 16.2 18.3 19.7

UK 9.6 11.5 13.3 15.2 20.4 16.8 14.5 12.6 10.8

ContinentalE 8.5 9.8 11.1 10.4 9.4 7.1 5.3 4.7 4.6

Trinidad 9.5 7.9 10.6 12.2 12.4 14.8 14.5 11.7 9.1

Guyana 1.7 1.9 2.7 2.9 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.4

Leeward& Win 7.2 7.0 6.3 7.1 8.2 7.7 6.8 6.7 6.5

Jamaica 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0

Venezuela 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.4

Others 4.3 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.4 2.9 2.9 3.3

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 _e___ ------

…------__------Source,Ministry of Tourismand the Environment(formerly Hinistry of Civil - 80 -

Table 9.3u BARBADOS- AVERAGELENOTH OF STAY OF GUESTSBY TYPE OF ACCOMMODATION

Hotel Category ------Guest Apartment Apart- All Year I II III Houses Hotels ments Establishments …------__------__ 1977 7.5 7.2 5.6 3.3 10.3 11.7 9.0

1978 7.4 6.2 3.9 4.3 10.6 13.2 9.1

1979 6.8 6.7 4.7 4.2 10.5 16.9 9.9

1980 7.2 5.6 5.9 4.7 9.7 15.0 9.8

1981 7.0 6.9 7.0 3.7 11.6 13.1 9.6

1982 6.6 6.0 6.7 3.0 10.7 9.7 8.3

1983 5.9 3.8 5.7 3.8 10.3 9.7 7.7

1984 5.6 5.8 5.0 3.8 7.9 9.6 7.1

1985 5.6 5.5 4.7 4.0 6.8 7.6 6.3

------r---e------Barbados------Statistical------S----rvice.----__ 80urcte BarbadosStatistical Service. 81 - Tableq.4i JTMI oWN 1 T? 0?WC TION,1974-O

All - - t Apartut PeriodEstdlishuts. Or" I rse It rp IIIt Xmss Hutel Apatmts

1974 44.7 5.8 36.1 22.1 19.4 50.4 45.9

1977 54.1 U1.3 40.4 0.7 25.4 53 4 55.1

1916 59.3 71.5 36.0 4.3 24.4 44.7 40.3

1979 76.4 72.5 46.3 44.4 32.1 70.9 84.3

1930 45.3 49.4 44.5 44.1 27.5 49.6 44.2

1981 54.0 52.1 35.4 43.7 21.3 66.0 58.6

6m 45.5 47.2 34.5 29.4 18.5 45.9 41.5

19 46.1 57.4 32.4 31.0 14.0 51.5 37.8

1 45.1 51.0 42.3 22.5 24.7 55.1 34.8

1935 39.5 52.0 50.9 20.2 22.0 34.1 30.0 ovrce larbas StatisticalSrvice. IBRD20365 cK tlO 7t0

North Port Tt A CTLNANrlc 's., 0o 400

CRABHILL- C 0 400 0, -20..4 fs.,,4)~~~sRe -20-hQDOMINICAN MILES 201 PIeCORNER 2 HAITI RE PUERTORiCO ST. L UC Y PI JAMAICA

*' ) // , _-- -> Caribbean Seo BARBADOS

CLINKETTS PANAMA

'> , _ t ! ~~~~~~SOUTHAMERICA

SPEIGHTS- PETEREST MILLa LEPLAINE MWVN *W Wsof TM IO Ste S;AMPS}~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1,0 &WMftAWOO &WWo 11 110 tl.ooSo :~~~~~~~~~~~)01*1010~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.l _-- I -t Ws# VW. ftomp1.ooofo

i-NW 71* 0 w181-Z Om

01w w'40.V I'11* W \ t ° 2 HILLA8YJz6CA~~ttLE 5 BATHSHEBA° ^

q - /{ S -' STt~~~5JOSEH

- HOLETOWN \ ST. THO A ' / /e

STLAWRENCE 5 1 ALRE MAY

ci I v 7 KMANSR RAA@\ / S +X>\ITJ AGRICULTURALANDUS.TEP LAG EK % / \ AS s 7 / ELE,s N.S{ 5.

ea D6SoWatT \Mr_#\ aor b l a fo m n Ctt u a THECRANE

BRIDGETOWN< a ~~~CHRIST B HASTINGS / /AMP=Q ST LAW4RENCE -

BARBADOS Sot olnt| |AVG-'RICULTURALMAD USE PlAN

Arable land suitablefor mechonicolcultivotion O Sugor foctornes Arable lond unsuitoble for mechanicolcultivation Beoches Pastureland with limited Irrigation - Irrigation boundories Market gordening with limited irrigotion Mojor roods Gulliesand steep land suitoble for forest, fruit, Porish boundories citrus and bononos, windbreak trees Main built-up areos A Zonescopoble of approximotely equal sugor International boundaries yields (not defined) 0 2 3 4 5 I I ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I MILES

DECEMBER1086