El Puerto De Liverpool S.A.B. De C.V
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El Puerto de Liverpool José Cebeira | Sr. Analyst Discretionary Consumption S.A.B. de C.V. [email protected] Ext. 1394 Historical News Jerónimo Cobián | Analyst [email protected] Actinver: (55) 1103 6600 Last updated on July 20, 2020 LIVEPOL (Mkt. Perform ) 2Q20 Earnings Conference Call Highlights The company has implemented several strategies to face the current challenging environment under the Covid-19 pandemic. Some examples are: i) 50% reduction in Capex in 2020, ii) no additional stores opening during the next six months, iii) the repurchase share program has been put on-hold, iv) the company expects to place a P$3.5 Bn bond briefly with a 10-year maturity, v) the cash from the bond will not be used to repay the P$3.5 Bn credit loan contracted during the 1H20. Full report here July 17, 2020 LIVEPOL (Mkt. Perform ) Negative 2Q20 Report, Below Expectations LIVEPOL filed a negative 2Q20 report, below our and consensus' expectations. After fine-tuning our earnings model, we have decided to leave unchanged our Mkt. Perform rating, despite the challenging environment that the company will continue to face in the 2H20. We forecast a slower recovery than we were expecting for LIVEPOL stores, mainly in the Suburbia format. Full report here July 14, 2020 Consumption Sector: ANTAD—SSS Declined 17.9% In June The National Association of Self-Service & Department Stores (ANTAD, acronym in Spanish) released its official results of June 2020; at the consolidated, total sales (TS) and same-store sales (SSS) decreased YoY by 15.3% and 17.9%, respectively. Note that, reported results were above expectations and continue to show a sequential recovery since April, which reflected for the first time the full impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Mexican department and specialized stores. Furthermore, self-service stores filled their lowest growth rates since the contingency began, however, results keep being healthy at the same time the industry will continue to show a high defensive profile throughout the sanitary crisis. June 3, 2020 LIVEPOL (Mkt. Perform): Reopened Stores in Mexico The company re-opened stores in Chihuahua and Nuevo León with rigorous protocols. The openings have been with the government’s approval. We see this news as positive for Liverpool. Although the limited amount of Liverpool stores Disclaimer: https://goo.gl/6b8m3o www.actinverresearch.com opened. The re-opening has been before expectations as even the most optimistic view aimed for mid-September. April 29, 2020 LIVEPOL (Mkt. Perform): Negative 1Q20 Report, Below Expectations Livepol posted figures below consensus expectations as a result of a weak month of March. The department stores will face a challenging environment even though Livepol has different virtual platforms. We expect the company to sell approximately 15% of the anticipated sales through the platforms. The 2Q20 will be tougher for Liverpool, considering the local confinement measures that will bring along a sharper deterioration of the Mexican economy & personal income, which ultimately will have an impact on consumer discretionary spending. A recovery in the company’s top line would come until 3Q20 & it is expected to be gradual. We are downgrading our rating from “Outperform” to “Mkt. Perform”. Worth pointing out the company’s sound balance sheet to face the Covid-19 crisis for at least 6 months with store restrictions. Full report here April 1, 2020 LIVEPOL (Outperform) COVID-19 strategy Sanitary Measures. In response to the declaration of a public health emergency caused by the COVID-19 pandemic announced by the Mexican government on March 30, the company has decided to close all of the Liverpool stores, Suburbia stores, Galerías shopping centers, and boutiques nationwide from March 31 until April 30. The company is committed to guaranteeing the jobs of its employees and, to the extent of its possibilities, to continue paying their full wages and benefits, among other economic support measures. Livepol has activated the continuity plan, and most of its administrative employees are working from home. The company has the digital and logistical infrastructure necessary to continue serving clients throughout various platforms available such as Liverpool, Suburbia, Williams Sonoma, Boutiques, and Marketplace. They are taking the sanitary measures needed to fill and deliver all these orders. It is important to mention that the Click & Collect service will not be available in the next month. For that reason, the company is offering home delivery. The areas for receiving and dispatching merchandise from the warehouses, as well as the distribution centers, will be operating with a reduced staff. All employees are allowed to stay home if they are ill or feel vulnerable to contagion, with full payment. In general terms, the components of the supply chain continue to 2 Disclaimer: https://goo.gl/6b8m3o www.actinverresearch.com operate normally. Financial Measures. The company’s current financial position is solid, with available cash balance to pay all the obligations in the months also includes credit lines with several banking institutions. The total amount of the US dollar-denominated debt (US$1.05 Bn) is fully hedged in pesos and fixed rates. Additionally, all the debt is at fixed rates. The LIVEPOL 10 and LIVEPOL 10U bonds, totaling P$3.0 Bn, which expire this May, were pre-funded last November. The next debt maturity is until 2022. The foreign-exchange hedges relating to merchandise Spring- Summer season is mostly covered, while the Autumn- Winter season is partially hedged at the moment. It is essential to mention that the current public health emergency has already resulted in a substantial reduction in traffic in department stores, stores, boutiques, and shopping centers since mid-March. To reduce the decline in revenues and preserve the liquidity levels, the company is implementing an emergency plan to reduce operating expenses and CapEx such as: i) above all, preserve Group liquidity; ii) rigorously reduce the budget for capital expenditures. Halted projects that had not begun or were still in the early stages; iii) Livepol has restricted operating expenses to the minimum necessary; iv) also, they have introduced credit solutions to benefit current customers to retain them and enable them to continue using their credit cards and responsibly avoid higher loan delinquency ratios. Digital channels for receiving credit card payments continue to function normally; v) inventory levels and purchase plans are being handled with caution. February 26, 2019 LIVEPOL (Outperform, PT P$131.11) Positive 4Q19 Report, above expectations; significant improvements in margins Liverpool filed a positive 4Q19 report that came in above our and consensus expectations. After fine-tuning our earnings model, we are leaving unchanged our Outperform rating and P$131.11/ share PT YE2020E. Excluding the IFRS-16 effect, the company reported sales growing 5.2% YoY, EBITDA increasing 14.9% YoY, and net income up by 11.0% YoY. Through IFRS 16, Liverpool posted EBITDA increasing by 17.9% YoY and net income climbing 7.2% YoY. These results were –2%, +11.5%, and +15.2% relative to our estimates, respectively. Full report here 3 Disclaimer: https://goo.gl/6b8m3o www.actinverresearch.com October 23, 2019 LIVEPOL (Outperform, PT P$131.11) Neutral 3Q19 report, despite limited sales growth. Liverpool’s figures were negatively impacted by Suburbia Liverpool filed a neutral 3Q19 report that came in in-line with our and consensus expectations. After fine-tuning our earnings model, we leave unchanged our Outperform rating and P$131.11 PT YE-2020. Under IFRS 16, the company reported sales growing a limited 3.1% YoY, EBITDA increasing 14.0% YoY, and net income declining 1.5% YoY. In a comparable base (ex- IFRS16), Liverpool posted EBITDA increasing 1.0% YoY and net income climbing 1.9% YoY. These results were – 1%, +0.2%, and +40.1% relative to our estimates (on a comparable basis), respectively. Full report here October 15, 2019 Previews Food & Beverage Low expectations for the 3Q Earnings Results. Partially offset by USD appreciation vs. MXN During the 1H19 of the year, the industry performed below expectations in the majority of the cases. For the 2H19, the trend continues almost on the same path, as the consumer remains cautious given uncertainty from the new administration’s policies. We expected a weak earnings quarter as a result of low single-digit growth, on the back of higher prices rather than volume. We only expect a couple of names to surpass market expectations, such as AC, ALSEA, BACHOCO, and SPORTS. Although the sales growth is not expected to be significant, we forecast a higher growth rate (at least high single-digits) at the EBITDA and EPS level. We expect weak results for companies such as KOF, BIMBO, and CUERVO. Even though the companies are going to report a low sales growth figure, we are going to see a limited improvement, at the EBITDA level. Even though Cuervo is facing an easy 4 Disclaimer: https://goo.gl/6b8m3o www.actinverresearch.com comparable base at the EBITDA level, we do not foresee any improvement due to higher prices in raw material and the USD appreciation vs. the MXN. Full report here July 24, 2019 LIVEPOL (BUY, PT P$125.0) 2Q19 Results - Positive report, larger promotion activity impacted the company’s margins The company posted strong top-line results, even considering that profitability was affected by a higher promotional activity than last year given one less weekend; EBITDA margin (excluding IFRS) contracted from 14.9% to 14.6% as a result. On the positive side the delinquency rate continues its downtrend from 5.7% to 5.6%. Sales reported a 9.3% YoY increase, supported by 8.2% and 11.7% sales growth in Liverpool and Suburbia, respectively.