www.africa-confidential.com 27 June 2003 Vol 44 No 13 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL SUDAN 2 SUDAN Getting away with it The National Islamic Front ‘Oppressive and totalitarian’ government is expert at double- The government threatens the Machakos peace process by holding speak but it is easier to persuade on to its Islamist state the outside world than the ‘Khartoum will never go back to being a secular capital and what forced us to execute the 30 June 1989 Sudanese. As the Machakos peace talks stumble, the strains coup was the conspiracy against Sharia and the attempt to abrogate it’. Thus, on 18 June, President Omer are showing. Hassan Ahmed el Beshir admitted for the first time why the National Islamic Front had made its coup d’état when it did. That ‘conspiracy’ was in fact a peace process so advanced that the whole Sudan was anxiously awaiting a meeting between Premier El Sadig Sadeeg el Mahdi and the Sudan People’s LIBERIA 3 Liberation Army/Movement leader, John Garang de Mabior. This peace process was very different Weird scenes inside from the current one under Western auspices at Machakos, Kenya. It involved all northern Sudanese parties (except the NIF, which opposed it), had no foreign mediators and envisaged the constitutional the gold-mine separation of state and religion. President Charles Taylor vowed to The Machakos talks were in trouble before Lieutenant General Omer’s address to the Popular fight on as LURD rebels were once Organisation for Defending the Faith and the Homeland. There has been theoretical agreement on again heading for Monrovia’s city holding a referendum on self-determination in the south but Khartoum is also saying it won’t allow centre and the Executive Mansion. secession. There is even less agreement on power-sharing, oil-revenue-sharing, the ‘marginalised areas’ Unless an exit can be negotiated, Taylor faces a choice between between south and north (Abyei, Nuba Mountains, Southern Blue Nile) and security (one army or two? fighting to the death and fleeing to AC Vol 44 No 12). One participant said it was ‘a bizarre experience’ to witness the SPLM negotiating the bush. with the mediators while the NIF sat in silence, monitoring. In the last round, which collapsed in May, there were no face-to-face meetings and minimal delegations. LIBERIA 4 Earlier this year, the NIF was talking as if peace were just around the corner, and discussing mechanisms and modalities. There was no sense though that wrongs were being righted or profound How the talks issues discussed. The make-or-break issue looks like being the relationship between state and religion: the NIF insists on its version of Sharia constitutional and criminal law but southerners of all parties will stalled never accept national unity in an ‘Islamic’ state. Omer’s address fuelled the fire. ‘We want a banner that The peace-brokering efforts of says this war is against Sharia and we will all come out for Jihad so that I can cleanse the misdeeds I ’s former military leader, committed in this life against myself and others and meet my God as a martyr’. He described some General Abdulsalami Abubakar at misdeeds: ‘We were oppressive and totalitarian and we used to arrest, flog and gaol people’, blaming them the Liberia talks in Accra were edging towards success but have on Hassan Abdullah el Turabi (then at the apex of his power) and his followers – most of whom are still been sidelined by renewed fighting in power, including Omer and the then security boss, Nafi’e Ali Nafi’e, now Federal Affairs Minister. in Monrovia. Now oppositionists are accusing their Ghanaian hosts The perils of secularist chatter of bias – for being too cosy with It did not sound as though the President’s priority was a peace deal. Indeed, he said war was preferable President Taylor’s officials. to renouncing Sharia. Omer is famous for his outbursts and the NIF is a master of uncertainty and contradiction; some apparent gaffes have later looked like decisive moves. He repeated his key points CONGO-KINSHASA 5 several times, suggesting he meant them: that the Machakos Protocol signed in August 2002 had completely resolved the issue of whether Khartoum was to be a secular capital and that Colonel Garang Nobody’s moving was trying to abort Machakos by raising the Sharia question. The constitution in fact opens anyone who The UN Security Council has discusses secularism to the charge of Ridda (apostasy), which carries the death sentence. ordered the political factions to The President also attacked political leaders: El Turabi (whose faction, now calling itself the Popular agree on a power-sharing Congress, renewed its pact with the SPLA/M on 3 June); Umma Party leader El Sadig el Mahdi (whom government in Kinshasa by 30 the NIF overthrew as Premier in its 1989 coup); and Mohamed Osman el Mirghani, leader of the June. Some Council members are also backing a bigger UN Democratic Unionist Party and Chairperson of the opposition National Democratic Alliance. On 24 May peacekeeping force in eastern El Sadig and Mohamed Osman, a lead figure in the 1988-89 peace process, and Garang signed the Cairo Congo, an arms embargo and the Declaration, which calls for national unity and a national capital treating ‘all religions and beliefs as prosecution of war criminals. equal’ (the nearest the two ‘sectarian leaders’ get to saying secular law). Secularism may be the issue on which Machakos fails or succeeds. POINTERS 8 In its 1995 Asmara Declaration, the NDA committed itself to the separation of religion and politics in the whole country, i.e. a secular constitution. The Cairo Declaration is the first public and united stirring Nigeria, Nigeria & of the leaders of the Islamic DUP and Umma (and of the northern part of the NDA) since the Machakos United Nations/Africa talks began in June 2002. Till now, NDA leaders, like the SPLM’s, have been afraid to criticise the peace talks for fear of being accused of war-mongering. The new declaration is a sign of the politicians’ hope 27 June 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 13 Getting away with it The National Islamic Front knows that, if it plays its cards right, the ● convincing outsiders it alone represents Sudan, Sudanese and Islam; parameters set at Machakos will continue. Few now question the ● convincing people its ‘project’ has failed, so peace is inevitable; government’s legitimacy; few now mention the Declaration of Principles ● convincing Westerners and Arabs that what Hassan el Turabi stands that it signed up to in 1997 under the Inter-Governmental Authority on for is no longer NIF policy; Development peace process, whose forgotten pillar was the separation of ● making people forget it that it had offered the south self-determination state and religion. Soon, it hopes, nobody will talk about democracy or (even secession: infisal) in 1989 and the 1997 Khartoum Peace Accord (in human rights. February 2003, Britain’s then Development Secretary, Clare Short, When asked about democracy, British Special Representative Alan called it a ‘breakthrough’); Fletcher Goulty said: ‘You have to make sacrifices to get peace’. ● transforming the debate about secular Sudan into one about the capital It is almost as if the NIF had a check-list of points to settle. Since the or part of it; Machakos talks began in June 2002, it has got away with: ● establishing moral equivalence at Machakos with the far less powerful ● presenting the war as the only issue; Sudan People’s Liberation Army/Movement; ● making people think a lasting peace can be established without ● taking over the economy in the guise of privatisation: we hear hundreds democracy or human rights; of NIF companies are moving to Indonesia and Malaysia; ● massacring civilians to clear oil areas in Upper Nile; ● convincing the International Monetary Fund and World Bank it’s ● air bombardment of civilians in Darfur; broke when it has the oil-money it needs for military expenditure; the ● getting rid of the effective United Nations Human Rights Special Bank’s Ishaq Diwan enthuses about a post-war ‘quick impact programme’; Rapporteur, Gerhart Baum; ● giving the impression it was reluctant host to Usama bin Laden and ● building the Western Upper Nile oil road it had agreed under Machakos Al Qaida, not part of the same Islamist strategy; to halt; ● making gestures of anti-terrorist cooperation; ● convincing foreigners it wants only power and money, not an Islamist ● confirming Egypt’s belief that an independent south threatens the Nile; revolution; ● convincing the Arab world the Sudan war is against Arabism and Islam.

that Machakos could bring down the NIF. One scenario envisages nudging the NIF, which has ruled through Sadig returned to Sudan in 2000 after an agreement with Omer in terror for 14 years, back into polite pluralistic society. This ignores November 1999, which triggered Sadig’s split from the NDA. He now three fundamental points. Firstly, it is hard to imagine a Sudanese distances himself in turn from both government and opposition, public, after those 14 years, accepting the NIF as just another party all earning criticism from his own party and losing a faction of it to the over again. Secondly, international acceptance of the NIF would (and NIF. His cousin Mubarek Abdullahi el Fadl el Mahdi is now already does) send a brutal message when war criminals and torturers Assistant to the President. Sadig’s traditional and religious Ansar are being tried from Arusha to the Hague and international impunity followers unexpectedly attacked the NIF on 20 June; that was widely is slowly crumbling. Sudan’s torturers may yet face justice at home understood as support for a secular capital, which they prefer to the or abroad. However, the SPLM does not insist on any accountability country’s disintegration. mechanism at Machakos and its Spokesperson Samson Kwaje has said healing was needed and there would be no Truth and Reconciliation Fury over Sharia Commission (the NIF has refused a TRC). The international mediators For the first time since the mid-1990s, the NIF is under attack from all at Machakos have failed to use the threat of indictment to bring sides. It has reacted with fury over Sharia but knows that at Machakos, pressure upon the NIF. Thirdly, it assumes the NIF is only reacting and taking a hard line, then softening it, is seen as progress. Meanwhile, has no plan up its sleeve. it feeds the ambiguities. Sadig has shown he is ready to work with the powers that be and even the SPLA/M talks of sitting down with the NIF Torture and bombing in Darfur as part of the democratic process that Machakos is supposed to install. In northern Sudan, the NIF has reverted to what the Sudanese ‘We are ready to recognise the NIF as a party and share government Organisation Against Torture calls the ‘the dark era of the early with them. They have to agree the ground should be level’, Mansour nineties’, with widespread use of torture and, in Northern Darfur, Khalid, Political Advisor to John Garang and once President Ja’afar aerial bombing of civilians. On 21-23 June, many died or were injured Mohamed Nimeiri’s Foreign Minister, told Africa Confidential. in Kornoy, Um Boro, Um Haras and Abu Gamarah. The Inter- Turabi’s PC complicates matters, as many believe it’s meant to do. Governmental Authority on Development’s chief mediator, Kenyan Turabi was moved sideways in December 1999 and gaoled (now former security chief General Lazaro Sumbeiywo, aroused disbelief converted to house arrest) in February 2001 when his faction, then on 5 June by declaring that the war in the west would encourage called the Popular National Congress, signed a Memorandum of Khartoum to sign Machakos. The government may hope to free troops Understanding with the SPLM. The latest MoU was signed by Garang for battle elsewhere but that is a poor basis for lasting peace. Bombing and PC boss Ali el Haj Mohamed in what was once Tiny Rowland’s from aircraft and ground attacks have continued in Western and Metropole Hotel in London on 3 June. Mansour of the SPLM, who is Eastern Upper Nile, too, with hundreds of deaths. The Swiss-based also a member of the NDA Leadership Council, told us: ‘We want them Global Internally Displaced Persons Project says that more than half to go back to the position before the coup. They realise they can’t rule a million people, mainly from the oil-producing areas of Upper Nile, alone. The outside world can’t accept it’. (Ali el Haj was also seen have been forced to flee in the year since Machakos began. There is meeting ex-Vice-President Joseph Lagu Yanga: in the days after the a deafening silence from the mediators, who argue that ‘hostile 1989 coup, the pair went round Britain trying to reassure Sudanese propaganda’ endangers the peace process. this was a respectable coup; Lagu then became a Roving Ambassador On 22 May, British Trade Minister Elizabeth Symons told for the NIF.) parliament her government was ‘enormously concerned’ about the 2 27 June 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 13 way human rights ‘are abused with little regard to the background of though, by the huge quantities, and by the behaviour of the Ukrainian the people involved’. Yet the NIF’s attacks are surgically targeted. As and Azerbaijani crew, who sailed the vessel around for six weeks, and three ‘marginalised areas’ of the north-south buffer zone became an of the NIF, which claimed the cargo for a company named Integrated issue of controversy at Machakos, Khartoum began harassing specific Chemicals and Development, headed by one Isam Bakri el Khalifa. people there. A seminar on Blue Nile was cancelled after its main Mustafa angrily declared that all documents regarding the shipment organiser, Hussein Ibrahim Gindeel, was detained. Women travelling had been approved by his Ministry – not normally a Foreign Ministry to Kauda for a Nuba conference on Machakos were held back in task. The ship reportedly belonged to a company controlled by two Irish Khartoum. Even the United States Agency for International citizens and registered in the Marshall Islands (until recently a US Development’s Assistant Administrator for Democracy, Conflict and dependency), and was itself registered in Comoros, a country whose Humanitarian Assistance, Roger Winter, was prevented from attending Sudanese connection began when Sudan Airways began flying there a tribal reconciliation meeting in Abyei, Southern Kordofan. after the NIF seized power. Security forces have broken up opposition meetings. At a private In late May, Sudan deported 17 alleged Saudi Arabian terrorists to house on 18 June, veteran politicians such as El Haj Warrag of the Saudi, after the government suddenly discovered their ‘terrorist training (secularist) HAQ group and Sid Ahmed el Hussein, DUP former camp’ (which it must have known of) near Lagowa, S. Kordofan. On Interior Minister, were arrested while discussing Machakos. The 8 June, Mr Smile noted that the ‘international anti-terrorism campaign’ media, some of which struggles to be independent, has been told not must resolve conflicts and neutralise hotspots ‘so that they would not to cross a ‘red line’ by speaking of abductions (i.e. slavery), the create conditions conducive to terrorism’. If charm is one prong of the security forces, the PC and Turabi, the Darfur conflict, arrests of NIF offensive, the other is to be true to itself. politicians or human rights activists, sexual health (female genital mutilation or HIV/AIDS) and, amazingly, the peace process. On 20 June, Amnesty International identified ‘clear signs that the Sudanese LIBERIA government is intent on denying the Northern civil society the right to prepare for a sustainable peace’. The barring of Winter was noticed in Washington, where success Weird scenes inside the for Machakos has been increasingly predicted. President George W. Bush’s government is under two kinds of Sudan pressure: from the gold-mine broad human rights/anti-slavery/black/Christian lobbies and from those fighting the ‘war on terrorism’ (AC Vol 44 No 11). The first Taylor has nowhere to run but the West hasn’t group largely explains Machakos. The second seems burdened by its got a plan yet desire to gather intelligence, seen as a form of ‘containment’ of Liberia’s latest ceasefire lasted barely a week. President Charles Islamist terrorism. Khartoum has drenched Washington in documents Taylor vowed to fight on as the rebels advanced through Bushrod Island and sacrificed some minor players for the greater cause. Senior US and headed for Monrovia’s city centre and the Executive Mansion. sources admit that since the mid-1990s, they suffered ‘an intel deficit’ With supplies, Taylor could hold out for weeks. Rebels have entered the in North and North-East Africa, now being steadily remedied but with city centre before and fought back and forth through the downtown a long way to go. The NIF well knows this and while it indeed fears district for weeks on end without achieving much. There are signs that US attack, it must find the US-UK failure to find weapons of mass Taylor’s forces got some new guns before pushing the rebel Liberians destruction in Iraq, let alone ex-President Saddam Hussein, deeply United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD) back last time. comforting. US sources say they don’t for one moment believe the The Mansion’s hilltop site is relatively easy to defend and Spriggs NIF has changed but their calculation is to ‘change the terrain’. Iraq Payne airfield is close enough to fly in supplies. Unless an exile deal can suggests this may not be easy. be negotiated – difficult with the indictment from the Special Court on Sierra Leone hanging over him – Taylor faces a choice between Mr Smile uses ESPAC fighting to the death and fleeing to the bush. On a visit to London in early June, Garang made it clear the only Fortunately for Taylor, talks between Britain, France and the United guarantees he envisaged at Machakos were not from external powers States on what to do are also at an early stage – though they are at least but from his own armed forces. Internal factors are now exposing the working together. US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs NIF’s weaknesses. The friendly face of the NIF charm offensive is Walter J. Kansteiner III attended a meeting at the Foreign and Foreign Minister Mustafa Osman Ismael, known as Mr Smile. When Commonwealth Office on 20 June but working out twin political and he visited Washington in late May, he was said to be upset not to have military strategies could take weeks. While Kansteiner is confident that been invited to meet Ted Dagne, the veteran Horn of Africa specialist Taylor can be removed, National Security Council Director for African at the Congressional Research Service. Within days, the Sudan Affairs Jendayi Frazier is firmly against intervention and is telling her government lobbyist David Hoile (who used to advocate hanging boss, Condoleezza Rice, that it would be a disaster. Nelson Mandela) had issued against Dagne one of his habitual Kansteiner would like the USA to back an intervention led by the vitriolic attacks via his ‘European Sudanese Public Affairs Council’. Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) to support a We hear that Hoile accompanied Mustafa Osman to some DC meetings. monitored, swift transition of power. At the moment, the process Mr Smile also popped up in the mysterious case of the skulking ship, appears, crucially, to lack a leader. The United Nations passed up the the Baltic Sky, boarded by Greek special forces on 22 June after a tip- opportunity to tackle the regional conflict as a whole when it renewed off from North Atlantic Treaty Organisation monitors in the sanctions on Taylor in May (AC Vol 44 No 10). A UN Security Council Mediterranean. The ship was loaded in Tunisia with some 680 tonnes mission postponed from last month was due to leave New York on 25 of explosives and 8,000 detonators: Sudan insists this is ammonium June for , with an itinerary that still included Monrovia, and nitrate, Athens that it is trinitrotoluene (TNT). Both can have legitimate will make recommendations that will buy time for both Taylor and the civilian uses plus artillery shell manufacture. Suspicion was aroused, UN. It is led by Sir Jeremy Greenstock, a heavyweight who is due to

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move from his job as Britain’s UN Ambassador to replace Sir John Sawers as British representative in Iraq. How the Ghana talks stalled With this many international initiatives, someone ought to have a General Abdulsalami Abubakar appeared to have won the trust of all plan; Liberia presents nothing like the complexities of regime change sides at the peace talks in Ghana. The Nigerian former ruler was on the in Baghdad. The International Contact Group of the UN, African verge of getting an agreement on a comprehensive peace framework and Union, Ecowas, Ghana, Morocco, Nigeria, European Union, France, had set an end-June deadline for proposals for a transitional government. UK and USA was set up in September 2002. The UN has been tracking The military/security committee agreed a ceasefire on 17 June, but the Taylor’s misdeeds through a Panel of Experts since 2001 but has failed deployment of a joint verification team comprising the warring parties and to stop sanctions busting and has become little more than a means for officials from the United Nations, African Union, Economic Community signalling the desire for a change of government. Ecowas is leading of West African States (Ecowas) and the International Contact Group was the latest round of peace talks in Ghana with Nigerian former leader held up by the failure of the rebel Liberians United for Reconciliation and Abdulsalami Abubakar as facilitator. The US Embassy, the main Democracy (LURD) to provide two representatives. Western presence in Monrovia, is down to a skeleton staff, but Ghana’s Foreign Minister Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo scorned Ambassador John Blaney is still there and the USS Kearsarge is suggestions that Ghana might deliver President Charles Taylor to the standing by offshore. Sierra Leone Special Court, and pronounced the indictment announcement Taylor has been furiously trying to raise money from timber sales as the talks opened an ‘embarrassment’. Many Taylor aides have homes and the like but has apparently failed to re-arm and controls little more in Ghana, including his cousin and Foreign Minister Monie Captan, than Greater Monrovia. His adversaries in the Liberians United for married to the daughter of Grace Minor. Acting Senate President Minor, Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD) are deeply divided and include regarded by some as unofficial prime minister, has been a staunch Taylor some fighters whose record of active service goes back to the presidency ally since his days as boss of the General Services Agency in the 1980s, of Samuel Kanyon Doe. Taylor’s international pariah status was when he was charged with embezzling over US$900,000 before escaping underlined by the Swiss decision on 24 June to freeze all Liberian from gaol to the United States. Minor raised funds for Taylor at the start offshore bank accounts. Unusual numbers of Liberian central bank of his rebellion, and was with him in the bush during the 1989-97 conflict. officials have been sighted in Accra in recent days. In the 1980s National Bank Governor Elie Saleeby worked at the World Taylor had hoped to cut a deal with Ecowas, a hope dashed by the Bank office in Accra and is said to have married a Ghanaian air hostess. 4 June announcement of his indictment by the Special Court on Sierra Taylor has delegated Defence Minister Daniel Chea as chief government Leone. This gesture by the Court’s US Prosecutor David Crane negotiator, backed by National Intelligence Agency boss Lewis G. Brown, served only to embarrass Ghana, whose guest Taylor was when the National Patriotic Party (NPP) Secretary General John Whitfield, NPP announcement came. While Ecowas leaders are as keen as anyone to Chairman Cyril Allen, and Economic Planning Minister Samuel Jackson. see Taylor arrested, they might have preferred at least to be consulted. Taylor’s opponents accuse Ecowas Executive Secretary Mohamed ibn Two other figures indicted by the Special Court, rebel Revolutionary Chambas of allowing the Liberian government to vet political party United Front Commander Sam Bockarie and 1997 coup leader representatives, and of failing to invite heavyweights like former interim Johnny Paul Koroma, have both been reported killed since their President Amos Sawyer, and George Boley, whose National Democratic indictments were announced. Party of Liberia is one of ten parties supporting Taylor’s NPP. On 24 June, the LURD suspended its participation in the peace Chambas has dismissed the LURD accusations of bias as ‘ridiculous’, process, complaining that Ecowas Executive Secretary Mohamed but LURD Chairman Sekou Konneh, military adviser Joe Wylie and ibn Chambas, a veteran of Liberian peace processes in the 1990s, was spokesman Kabineh Janneh have used the tactic to stall the peace process making no attempt to enforce an agreement for Taylor to step down. at critical moments, backed by Movement for Democracy in Liberia The Akosombo ceasefire agreement gave rebels and government 30 (Model) leader Tiah J.D. Slanger, Chairman Eugene Wilson, and days to establish an interim authority that excluded Taylor. military commander Gen. Boi Bleaju Boi, whose brother and fellow rebel While the LURD is resuming its offensive on the outskirts of Harrison Smith was killed during the recent fighting. Monrovia, the mainly Krahn Movement for Democracy in Liberia Veteran politician Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, Senator Charles Brumskine (Model) in the south-east is showing signs of strain. Côte d’Ivoire and Togba-Nah Tipoteh have emerged as leading spokespeople for the appears to be reining in its support under pressure from France, which eight opposition parties. Gabriel Bacchus Matthews was replaced by has 3,500 troops in Liberia’s eastern neighbour. Wesley Johnson as leader of the United Peoples Party after proposing an alliance with the NPP. Civil society and women’s groups based at President Blah perhaps Ghana’s Buduburam refugee camp complain that three seats for non- According to the constitution, if Taylor leaves office, he should hand political groups are inadequate, given the size of the Liberian diaspora in over to Vice-President Moses Blah, who would complete Taylor’s the USA. One suggested that peace might come quicker if the negotiators term, while interested governments would set up a transitional were not housed in Accra’s plush M Plaza hotel. government of national unity to run Liberia from January. Advocacy groups say swift military intervention is essential to contain Taylor if Tipoteh and Boima Fahnbulleh, also have the distinction of being a transition is to be successful. Yet the civil war and Taylor’s cited by Taylor at the opening of the talks as impediments to peace. presidency have left a deeply traumatised state, with little in the way Still, there is no shortage of former warlords who would like another of civil society that could take over. chance of entering the Executive Mansion. Senator Charles Brumskine of the Liberia Unification Party sees Taylor is determined not to face the Special Court and may consider himself as heir apparent. Other civilian figures who could potentially a last stand preferable to ignominious surrender. History seems to play a role include Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, who came second to Taylor repeat itself more in Liberia than elsewhere and there are real fears of in the 1997 elections, and Amos Sawyer, head of the 1990-94 interim a replay of 1990. Then rival ethnic factions moved into Monrovia after government, whose influence did not extend far outside Monrovia. Doe’s removal and the interim government and Ecowas peacekeepers Two other exiled civilian politicians who ran in 1997, Togba-Nah were powerless to stop the years of bloodshed that followed.

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CENTRAL AFRICAN REP. SUDAN mu ui Bo g n CONGO-KINSHASA CAMEROON a b HQ of French-led u Uele

O international intervention force Congo Orientale UN forward base Bundu Nobody’s moving Lake Équateur Kisangani Albert Mbandaka UGAN. A temporary calm in Ituri does not mean GABON CONGO Nord- DEMOCRATIC Kivu a Goma m progress towards national peace i e RW. REP. OF n a Bukavu Kindu M Congo-Kinshasa has briefly diverted the attention of the United UN headquarters Bandundu CONGO Sud- BUR. K Kasai Kivu as Nations Security Council from its altercations over Iraq. Spurred into ai Oriental UN forward base Cabinda KINSHASA action by the stark contrast in kill rates – more than three million (Ang.) Kasai TANZ. Bas-Congo Bandundu Occidental Matadi people over the past five years in Congo’s war and, by rough estimates, Kananga Mbuji- Kalémié Lake Mayi K Tanganyika around 200,000 by ex-President Saddam Hussein’s regime in the w a n a g b o la same period – the 15 UNSC Ambassadors flew into Kinshasa on 7 a u June to instruct political factions to set up a power-sharing government L Katanga L. Mweru by 30 June. There is almost no chance that this will happen and so the (Shaba) ANGOLA

hopes for pacifying eastern Congo on the back of a new national Ocean Atlantic zi Lubumbashi be government and security force look forlorn in the near future. m a Meanwhile, the Council has authorised a French-led intervention 800 kilometres Z ZAMBIA force to go into the north-eastern Ituri Province to break the bloody 400 miles cycle of violence there (AC Vol 44 Nos 11 & 12). The European Union’s Special Envoy for the Great Lakes Region, Roger Lumbala’s RCD-National and by civil society groups. Neither Aldo Ajello, reckons that France’s Opération Artémis in Bunia will be the government nor the RCD-Goma have published their lists, though. at best a temporary fix without a political agreement at the centre. All Western diplomats say Kabila fears a revolt in government ranks if he the groups negotiating in Kinshasa – President Joseph Kabila’s sacks 80 per cent of his ministers to make way for appointees from the government, armed and non-armed opposition groups and their sponsors opposition factions. in Rwanda and Uganda – have a stake in the fighting in eastern Congo. The most optimistic interpretation of the latest round of The national army crunch fighting in Ituri and the Kivu provinces is that this is last-minute The government candidates are competing fiercely, especially positioning on behalf of negotiating parties in Kinshasa. Yet it also has Augustin Katumba Mwanke from Katanga (former Minister for the much to do with long-running rivalries over land rights, strategic trade Presidency) and Mwenze Kongolo (former Security Minister). Both routes and exploiting the region’s natural riches – all of which would had their ministerial jobs suspended in October 2002, after they were have to be addressed in a political settlement. named in a UN report on resource exploitation in Congo (AC Vol 43 Initially, Opération Artémis has had some success, at least in No 21). Kabila is also under pressure to accommodate the heads of the heading off another escalation of the fighting. Previously, units of people’s power committees set up by his father, President Laurent- Kinshasa’s Forces Armées Congolaises (FAC) had already been sent Désiré Kabila, who lost their sinecures when the committees were to Beni, where the Rassemblement Congolais pour la Démocratie- dissolved in April. Mouvement de Libération (RCD-ML) has its headquarters. They were Yet there is agreement of sorts on the four vice-presidents who are preparing to advance on Bunia and help the Lendu militias to retake to understudy Kabila: Yerodia Abdoulaye Ndombasi Tumba Futa control of the town from the Union des Patriotes Congolais (UPC), the Bingolo (government); Jean-Pierre Bemba (Mouvement pour la Hema militia led by Thomas Lubanga. This advance could have Libération du Congo); Azarias Ruberwa (RCD-Goma); Arthur completely disrupted the peace process. Ajello explains: ‘If the Zahidi N’Goma (non-armed opposition). Yerodia’s appointment national army had become engaged, the Rassemblement Congolais sparked immediate protests because of his indictment (now withdrawn) pour la Démocratie (RCD-Goma), supported by Rwanda and allied to by Belgium for hate-speech against Tutsi. Opposition to N’Goma’s the UPC, would have reacted and we would have witnessed a direct emergence as Vice-President representing the non-armed opposition confrontation between Ugandan troops wanting to keep the RCD out has been more sustained, with fierce protests from the Lumumbist of Ituri and Rwanda’. factions grouped under Antoine Gizenga’s Parti Lumumbiste Unifié (Palu) and Etienne Tshisekedi wa Malumba’s Union pour la Lubanga’s reign of terror Démocratie et le Progrès Social. Tshisekedi, the protesters’ preferred Bunia remains volatile and dangerous. Lubanga is accused of organising candidate, is a cantankerous opposition veteran who has strongly a reign of terror. Night-time murders and abductions are running at opposed the Mobutu Sese Seko and Kabila regimes but has bizarrely more than 30 a week. Lubanga’s militia fighters are changing out of allied himself with the Rwandan-based RCD-Goma. The under- their Rwandan-supplied uniforms into civilian clothes. Further on, representation of Congo’s talented civic activists and non-armed everyone fears that when the mandate of Artémis expires on 1 oppositionists and the preponderance of militia leaders in the political September, Bunia could sink back into the abyss as rival militias talks is a major weakness and another victory for ‘men with guns’. exploit the power vacuum. The real crunch is in talks on forming a new national army which Progress in the Kinshasa talks is shakier still. On 17 June, a could tackle the crisis in the east. The UN Secretary General’s military commission representing the parties to the inter-Congolese dialogue, advisor, Maurice Baril, a Canadian general, arrived in Kinshasa on chaired by Kabila himself, approved lists of members of parliament 19 June to sit in on the political and military subcommittee of the body and senators submitted by Enoch Mbusa Nyamwisi’s RCD-ML, by overseeing the transition, the Comité International d’Accompagnement

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à la Transition (CIAT). The only progress he observed was the official in charge of the peace process, Vital Kamerhe, accused the naming of an ad hoc committee (including CIAT personnel) intended RCD-Goma of wanting ‘to continue behaving like a rebel movement, to promote agreement between the parties. Agreement on the big setting up bases in government-controlled territory while behaving issues will be hard to reach; nevertheless, Baril and the UN Special also like a political party’; he demanded that the RCD-Goma seek Envoy, Moustapha Niasse, along with a South African technical recognition as a party from Kabila’s Interior Ministry and complained committee have made some progress on issues such as cooperation on that the ‘peace caravan’ organised by the civil society movement had personnel, intelligence organisation, training and logistics. not been admitted to rebel-held territory. Then on 4 June, Foreign Affairs Minister Leonard She Okitundu The climate was embittered by the arrest, in mid-June, of RCD- repeated that the President would not hand command of the army to Goma activists who had opened party offices in Matadi and Mbuji- the RCD-Goma. Jean-Pierre Ondekane of RCD-Goma has been Mayi. Both the government and RCD-Goma want to delay national nominated as Defence Minister and his movement objects to the reunification: the government fears handing power to its adversaries; government’s plan to keep all the top posts in the army, navy and air the RCD-Goma is obstructing travel, fearing that applause for force, as well as the military command in six of the ten provinces; delegations from Kinshasa would expose its own unpopularity. instead, it wants command of logistics in the general staff and second- in-command of the navy. FAC commanders say they wouldn’t accept North Kivu offensive orders from rebel groups. Further east, fighting has begun again in North Kivu where the Kigali- More positively, on 18 June the UN Mission, the Mission des friendly Governor, Eugène Serufuli, holds sway. On 19 June, RCD- Nations Unies en République Démocratique du Congo (Monuc), Goma troops took Lubero town from the RCD-ML. The Bishop of announced that 700 of its forces would help with security in Kinshasa, Butembo, Melchisedech Sikuli, says that the RCD-Goma troops were ahead of the arrival of 470 Ghanaian and 250 Tunisian UN troops. supported in their preliminary assaults by three Rwandan helicopters This is to protect the transitional government and reassure the rebels. armed with flame-throwers. The RCD-Goma claims it was merely But these numbers are far below the 3,000 soldiers requested by RCD-Goma. reacting to a counter-offensive backed by government troops, which it Monuc forces are stretched to the limit: it has under 5,000 troops wants withdrawn from the whole region. In the end, the UN and CIAT in Congo and an annual budget of some US$500 million. Although the brokered a cease-fire agreement, signed in Bujumbura by the UNSC agreed to expand it to 8,700 troops last December, Council government and the RCD’s two conflicting wings. members have failed to offer the extra troops or persuade their allies CIAT ordered the RCD-Goma to stop its North Kivu offensive at to do so. Opinion on the UNSC is divided about further expansion: the once and withdraw its troops. UN sources report that RCD-Goma has UN Assistant Secretary General in charge of Peacekeeping, Jean- redeployed eleven of its twelve brigades away from their agreed Marie Guéhenno, and Secretary General Kofi Annan have called for positions on the disengagement line to start offensives in the Kivus and a further expansion to 10,200 soldiers but the United States Maniema Province. Fighting continues and RCD-Goma had made its Ambassador to the UN, John Negroponte, is wary: ‘The Congo is too withdrawal conditional upon that of the government troops and on big a country for a foreign intervention, even a large one, to make a disarmament of the ‘negative forces’ backed by the government, long-term difference’. Negroponte argues that without political meaning soldiers of the former Rwandan army (Forces Armées agreement, expanding Monuc is pointless; others argue an expanded Rwandaises) and Rwandan Interahamwé militiamen. The RCD’s Monuc is essential to underpin any political agreement. spokesperson in Bujumbura, Joseph Mudumbi, said his troops had captured three government soldiers at Lubero. Security Council stalls Some senior UN figures, frustrated by years of Security Council Kampala warns stalling on the Congo crisis, say the Council’s ‘permanent five’ will In Kampala on 12 June, the Ugandan army spokesman, Major Shaban be squarely blamed if a breakdown in talks leads to another horrendous Bantariza, threatened to retaliate against the advance of RCD-Goma round of bloodletting. They insist that if Monuc forces are to take over soldiers into the area hitherto controlled by Uganda’s RCD-ML allies. from the French-led force in Ituri, they need a mandate under Chapter The Kinshasa government claims that the RCD-Goma offensive was Seven of the UN Charter, authorising the use of force for peacemaking. supported by Rwandan troops, which raises the possibility of a direct The needs are vast: disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration of confrontation between them and Ugandan forces, 2,000 of whom are fighters, support for Congolese government agencies (including the still on the slopes of the Ruwenzori mountains. Ituri Pacification Commission) and the distribution of a ‘peace Amid the general mistrust, Kinshasa’s allies are now levelling bitter dividend’ in the form of water, power, security, health, education and accusations against the troops lent to Monuc by Pretoria, whose initial transport. role was to replace the Uruguayan contingent in Ituri. The RCD-ML As Monuc’s neutral force was starting work in Kinshasa, relations accuses them of abandoning a stock of weapons, including light between Kabila’s government and the two main rebel movements armoured vehicles, which (they say) were taken over by the advancing were worse than ever. On 19 June, MLC President Bemba recalled RCD-Goma. In early June at Kindu, in Maniema, the MaiMai ‘for consultation’ his main negotiators, Olivier Kamitatu, MLC commander Lambert Konga Kanape accused the South African Secretary General and nominee for the presidency of the future troops of secretly bringing containers of weapons into the town, along National Assembly, and Antoine Ghonda. This was a protest against with about 150 mercenaries to fight with RCD-Goma. what Bemba said was his exclusion from Kinshasa the week before, All sides are recruiting. Monuc has denounced forced recruiting by when UNSC representatives had asked to see him there. Bemba the RCD-Goma in Bukavu; the UDPS accuses the government of claims Kabila told him the visit was not opportune. snatching young people in Mbuji-Mayi and sending them to do police Government relations with the RCD-Goma are even worse. In mid- work in Bunia or Beni. When 600 government police arrived in Bunia June, Azarias Ruberwa, formerly its Secretary General, took over as in May, they promptly sold their weapons and uniforms to Lendu its President, replacing Adolphe Onusumba Yemba. On top of the militiamen. Even after the multinational force was deployed at Bunia, disagreement over senior military appointments, the government we hear that the government continued its efforts to weaken Lubanga’s

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Lubanga’s fighters are also wary because the French troops at the The Ituri militias airport have to work alongside policemen from Kinshasa; the UPC suspects French officers of lingering sympathies with the old Rwandan ● Union des Patriotes Congolais (UPC): Gegere Hema, from north, led regime and its Congolese allies. by Thomas Lubanga who controlled Bunia, captured on 6 May as Opération Artémis began; Artemis under fire ● Parti pour l’Unité et la Sauvegarde de l’Intégrité du Congo (PUSIC): On 17 June, a French army helicopter, en route from Entebbe near Gegere Hema, led by Chief Yves Kahwa Panga Mandro, Lubanga’s Kampala to Bunia, turned back after it was shot at with light weapons rival; just after crossing the frontier. The previous day, two Hema militiamen ● A third Hema militia led by Shalinguza, operates south of Bunia; had fired on a French patrol, which returned fire and killed them. ● Front des Nationalistes et Intégrationnistes (FNI), led by Floribert Bunia town was formerly home to some 300,000 people and Njabu, northern Lendu; humanitarian agencies fear it may be overwhelmed by people seeking ● Forces de Résistance Patriotiques en Ituri (FRPI): Lendu militia; safety and rations. The intervention force’s mandate is restricted to ● Forces Populaires pour la Démocratie au Congo (FPDC): led by Bunia town and airport, and there are fears that the killing fields will Thomas Unen-Chan, an Alur leader, in Mahagi area along Lake Albert; move up-country nearer to the seat of Ituri’s mineral riches; in recent ● Forces Armées pour le Congo (FAPC): UPC splinter group, led by days, there have been clashes in Aru and Mahagi about 50 kilometres Commander Jérôme Kakawaku Bakonde, a Munyamulenge, fights north of Bunia. While the militias fight, the gold shipments continue. around Aru and Mahagi; clashes in late May when some fighters tried to To tackle security in the rest of Ituri, the intervention force would have overthrow Kakawaku. to double its size at least. In February, an inter-ethnic coalition was formed in Kampala, Uganda, More immediately, the only political institution with legitimacy – called the Front pour l’Intégration et la Paix en Ituri (FIPI), grouping the Ituri Pacification Commission – desperately needs effective security, PUSIC, FNI and FPDC. It aimed to disarm Lubanga but has itself office equipment and communications to build a working agreement splintered since Kahwa fears the Lendus may turn against him if the UPC among the rival factions. Led by the impressive former journalist is defeated. Pétronille Vaweka, the IPC is now recognised by all the militias and Ituri region has about 3.5 million inhabitants, comprising the following civic activists, and was fulsomely praised by the visiting Security ethnic groups: Lendu, Hema (Hema-Gegere from the north and Hema- Council Ambassadors. However, they have been less successful in Nyoro from the south), Alur, Bira, Nyari, Mambisa, Ndo-Okebo, persuading their governments to finance the IPC. A promised start-up Lugbwara, Kakwa, Logo, Lese and Ngiti (also known as Lendu-Bindi). fund of US$400,000 from the USA and the EU still hasn’t been paid None forms a majority, though the Hema and Lendu are the most and many IPC staff sleep under tables in a tented city behind the UN powerful. These groups are called ‘originaires’ (indigenous) and share base in Bunia. the territory with others, especially in towns and notably the Nandés, Another task for the French-led intervention force, or its successor, originating from Nord-Kivu. would be to impose an arms embargo on all routes into Ituri. That has The Lendus came from Sudan centuries ago and claim they were the been made easier by the force setting up radar and monitoring region’s first inhabitants, having been joined later by the Hemas, a equipment covering most of the airstrips in the province. Equally, Nilotic people which moved from what is now Uganda in successive Ajello (a veteran of the Mozambique peace process) and the Security waves after around 1600. Another Nilotic tribe, the Alurs, settled around Council ambassadors argue for bigger and better monitoring of the Lake Albert, from where they are said to have driven out the Lendus. armed groups with the aim of prosecuting those leaders and commanders The Kinshasa human rights group, the Association Africaine des responsible for massacres and other abuses. Droits de l’Homme (Asadho), says the Lendus were not the first Already some detailed testimony and documentary evidence has inhabitants. As they migrated, they are said to have occupied the land of been made available to UN agencies. As before, the permanent five the Leses and Nyaris, who themselves had driven out the Bambuti give rhetorical backing to such worthy aims but generally fail to pygmies. Exacerbated by competition for land, ethnic conflict thus took provide the finance, technical expertise or equipment to fulfill them. root early on in Ituri. Pressure will be growing on the Council and on the French-led force in Bunia to show that the world’s most powerful states can focus on UPC by despatching a supplementary force of 112 men. some measures to stop the killing in Congo. Bunia is now the key test of political will on all sides. Does the French-led Artémis have the resolve to face down both Lubanga’s Visit our website at: www.africa-confidential.com UPC and the government allied Lendu militias? The legacy of hatred Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at 73 Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, England. between the more prosperous Hema minority and the poorer but larger Tel: +44 20-7831 3511. Fax: +44 20-7831 6778. Lendu group is deep and needs astute diplomatic handling if the Copyright reserved. Editor: Patrick Smith. Deputy Editors: Gillian Lusk intervention force is to maintain a neutral stance. and Thalia Griffiths. Administration: Clare Tauben and Juliet Amissah. Annual subscriptions including postage, cheques payable to Africa Lubanga’s overtures to the intervention force have been rejected, Confidential in advance: and Monuc does not recognise the Mayor of Bunia, appointed by the Institutions: Africa £328 – UK/Europe £385 – USA $970 – ROW £502 UPC on 19 June. Equally, the force is holding no brief for the Lendu Corporates: Africa £424 – UK/Europe £472 – USA $1093 – ROW £589 militias trying to regain a military foothold in Bunia. The political and Students (with proof): Africa/UK/Europe/ROW £91 or USA $131 African Studies Assoc. members: UK/Europe £70 – Americas $102 – ROW £70 military subcommittee intervention force has no mandate to disarm All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. We accept the militias but its operational commander, General Jean-Paul American Express, Mastercard and Visa credit cards. Thonier, has forbidden the carrying of weapons inside (but not Subscription enquiries to: Africa Confidential, PO Box 1354, 9600 outside) the town; the UPC, though, started armed ‘military police’ Garsington Road, Oxford OX4 2XG England. Tel: 44 (0)1865 778315 and Fax: 44 (0)1865 471775 patrols on 17 June. If the Hema militias are disarmed, the Lendu could Printed in England by Duncan Print and Packaging Ltd, Herts, UK. start killing again and the intervention force would be blamed. ISSN 0044-6483

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runs a successful financial ratings agency; Pat Leone. Pointers Utomi, head of Lagos Business School, as well as This may presage a more activist Nigerian being Chairman of both Platinum Bank and stance in the region’s war zones; military watchers Business Day; and Isaac Aluko-Olokun, currently had argued that after the sacking of West African NIGERIA I point-man on Nigeria’s role in the New Partnership peacekeeping commander Gen. Victor Malu for Africa’s Development and formerly a close midway through Obasanjo’s first term, government associate of when he ran United interest in using Nigerian troops in regional Atlantic crossing Africa Company. operations such as Côte d’Ivoire and Sierra Leone Promising that his second-term government would These lists of nominees were produced by a six- declined sharply. Currently, Nigerian commanders be based on merit not party allegiance, President man search team set up by the President, headed are negotiating positions in a West African said the focus would be on by senior mandarin Ahmed Joda (a super- intervention force for Liberia, where Nigeria economic growth and job creation as details about permanent secretary in the 1960s); Francesca played the lead role in the West African his cabinet trickle out. Obasanjo remains haunted Emmanuel, a former permanent secretary and peacekeeping force in 1990-97. by Nigerians’ long-standing antipathy to the World opera singer; , former The Chief of Air Staff remains Air Marshal Bank and International Monetary Fund, which Governor of Kwara State; Professor Emmanuel Jonah Wuyep and Chief of Naval Staff, Vice- have a veto on Nigeria’s chances of debt reduction Edozien (economist) and Oladipo Akinkugbe Admiral Samuel Afolayan. Defence Intelligence and new development finance. The IMF broke off (professor of medicine); Adams Oshiomhole, remains under the directorship of Rear Admiral negotiations with the Obasanjo government a year President of the Nigeria Labour Congress and a Gabriel Ajayi; a former High Commissioner to or so ago after failing to agree on public spending former Ambassador to the United Nations, B. London under Gen. ’s regime, Uche priorities and accountability. Akporode Clark, who is tipped to become foreign Okeke, returns to his career path as Director of the Now Obasanjo is promising a new anti- minister. Brother of playwright John Pepper, National Intelligence Agency dealing with corruption drive and has appointed the World Clark hails from one of the most important political domestic surveillance. Bank Vice-President, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, as Ijaw/Urhobo families of the Niger Delta. Minister of Finance and Economy. Two problems Other big changes are mooted in the oil sector. UNITED NATIONS/AFRICA emerged immediately. Prior to any official Obasanjo’s Petroleum Affairs Advisor, Rilwanu announcement that Obasanjo was going to appoint Lukman, is tipped as Ambassador to the United Okonjo-Iweala (in any case all ministerial States, to be replaced by Funsho Kupolokun; the Breaching the peace appointments have to be vetted by the National Managing Director of the Nigerian National There is growing acrimony over the management Assembly), Bank President Jim Wolfensohn Petroleum Corporation, Gaius Obaseki, is of the United Nations peacekeeping operations in asserted that she would ‘make a pivotal expected go some time in the next year and has Africa. The test case is Congo-Kinshasa where contribution’ when the country is ‘at a critical finally agreed to back another candidate from Edo UN Secretary General Kofi Annan’s special envoy juncture’. This was several days before Obasanjo State, Greg Ero, as his replacement. Namanga Ngongi leaves at the end of this month. released the official list of ministerial candidates, He was much criticised by Western officials for let alone allocated them portfolios. NIGERIA II his ineffectual diplomacy, and his departure may The second problem is the Bank’s view that the leave a sour taste with the Kinshasa government effective subsidy on locally sold petrol costs over with whom he built strong relations. His US$2 billion a year and benefits the country’s Security blanket replacement, the United States’ former already privileged middle class at the expense of A new security team is emerging to take on rising ambassador to Kinshasa, William Swing, is the poorest. Although Obasanjo and the director crime, threats of terrorism and political unrest in expected to take a more muscular approach to of the Bureau of Public Enterprises, Nasir el the Niger Delta as President Olusegun Obasanjo ensuring a power-sharing government is set up. Rufai, share this view, it’s not common currency. consolidates power. Here, considerations of We hear that US diplomats suggested that if Swing So last week’s 50 per cent rise in the fuel price has effectiveness will trump imperatives of regional were not appointed, Washington’s support for UN already provoked a general strike by the National balance or political preference. Obasanjo’s two operations in Congo would dwindle further. Labour Congress. El Rufai (from State) key northern security chiefs – former Chief of The Nigerian head of the UN operation in has also been suggested for a senior economic Army Staff Lieutenant General Aliyu Mohammed Sierra Leone, , has also come role, either as chief economic advisor to Obasanjo Gusau as National Security Advisor and former under Western pressure. Now tipped as a possible or Minister of State for Finance. head of the National Security Organisation Gen. Foreign Minister or another senior post in the new According to President Obasanjo’s draft list of as Chief of Staff – are Olusegun Obasanjo government, Adeniji may ministers circulating in Abuja, only six survive likely to stay put for now. be more inclined to leave Freetown. Three years from the previous government: the lacklustre We hear the well regarded Gen. Saliu Ibrahim ago it was Obasanjo and Kofi Annan’s intervention Professor Babalola Borishade (Education); is to replace outgoing Defence Minister Gen. that kept him in place. These struggles raise the Muktar Shagari (Water Resources, son of former Yakubu Danjuma, whose wife Daisy Danjuma awkward question of peacekeeping apartheid President ); Turner Isoun (Science is energetically pursuing her own political career. referred to by the UN’s Under Secretary General and Technology); and Odion Ugbesia This follows a reshuffle of the military command for Peacekeeping, Jean-Marie Guéhenno: the (both ministers of State); and Adamu Bello as with the Chief of Defence Staff, Admiral Ibrahim countries which mandate and pay for peacekeeping Agriculture Minister, which is to be Obasanjo’s Ogohi, going into retirement, replaced by former don’t do peacekeeping any more. The six top top priority to generate jobs. Chief of Army Staff Gen. . troop contributing countries for UN operations Other mooted candidates include: Senator Lyel The new Chief of Army Staff is Lt. Gen. Martin are Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, India, Bangladesh Imoke, who was a presidential advisor and was Akwai (like Ogohi, from Benue State), who has and Pakistan. This new division of labour will formerly in charge of the beleaguered National already distinguished himself as a commander of make the top management of peacekeeping Electric Power Authority; Bode Agusto, who the UN peacekeeping force (UNAMSIL) in Sierra operations in Africa still more politically sensitive.

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