Alert Status NO ALERT FOOD SECURITY UPDATE WATCH WWAARRNNIIINNGG July 2005 EMERGENCY

CONTENTS Page CONCERN OVER DELAY IN AID PLEDGES Rainfall situation...... 2 High temperatures and continuing food deficits are putting many pastoralists at risk. Pastoralists are currently selling livestock to purchase grain, and water demand has almost doubled due to the scorching heat. At the same time, water catchments are drying rapidly. Despite these conditions, Food aid pipeline ……………...... 2 livestock body conditions are generally normal for this time of year. The onset and the performance of the Karan/Karma rainy season will influence the livestock productivity in the rural areas. Further Urban food and livelihood security 3 delays in pledges in response to the government’s international appeal to assist drought-affected households are likely to lead to a deterioration in the food security situation in the zones on alert status (see below). Prices in urban areas have exceeded the alert level for poor households. Desert locust threats ...... 3

NATIONAL OVERVIEW Djibouti City Some milking camels were moved Livelihood Zones of Djibouti Alert Status: Watch as usual to Dorale (main milk The cost of the minimum food market) in search of a market for and non-food basket recently their milk in order to supplement reached an unaffordable level for their cash income during this poor households in urban areas. period. Water is becoming scarce The nutritional status of poor and animals and people are household members may currently concentrated around deteriorate if this situation deep wells to avoid trekking long persists. Price control measures distances in search of water. An may be required. Strengthening increase in the government’s of therapeutic feeding centers is normal provision of water is recommended during the summer highly recommended. months.

Central Pastoral Zone harvesting (dates and mangos) woreda. Sharp cereal price Southeast Pastoral Zone Alert Status: Warning continues. Agriculturalists are increases have been recorded in (Border Sub-Zone) Livestock in this zone moved to entering the off-season. Afdem due to constraints on Alert Status:Warning more elevated areas to escape the Increasing fuel prices are a supply linked to tribal conflict. Drought-affected livestock have heat. Remittances, the main source constraint on agricultural Because the Gu rains were poor still not fully recovered. Animals of income in this zone, have been production, especially with in Biki, Adeytu and Afdem, in this zone have moved near regular due to the stable payment respect to on-going irrigation pastoralists started to move to Assamo and Guestir, consistent of salaries in the capital. With the requirements. Meissa as per their normal with their normal seasonal closure of school feeding programs Border Areas of Neighboring seasonal migration pattern. Of 9 pattern. Areas around Geustir and during the summer and a decline in Countries distribution sites, only Biki and Assamo received some showers animal productivity, pastoralists Afdem received their June food Eritrea: during June. Animal body are facing a food deficit. aid allocations. conditions are satisfactory and Djiboutian pastoralists have FEWS NET /SC-UK pastoralists have started selling Northwest Pastoral Zone moved to neighboring highland Somalia The internal migration of their livestock to buy cereals to Alert Status: Warning areas to escape the heat. The meet food needs. Charcoal prices food security situation in the livestock in Awdal coastal belt Pasture and browse are inadequate are increasing due to the seasonal border areas in Eritrea is declined due to significant in most areas of this zone, summer production decline.. improving due to the timely improvements in water, pasture particularly in As-guellah and Camel looting has been reported onset of the Kremti rains. and browse conditions following Madgoul. Water catchments are around Aseyla, leading to new Recent USAID Food for Peace good rainfall in April and May. practically dry and livestock have concerns about tribal conflict. pledges of around 200,000 MT Djiboutian livestock are expected been moved to nearby deep wells are expected to meet almost all to remain there until the next operated by the government. The food aid requirements for the season. The food security (Roadside Sub-Zone) food security situation in this zone rest of the year. Source: FEWS situation in rural areas improved. is precarious. Alert Status: Warning NET Eritrea An unusually high number of

Pasture and browse have dried up people from Djibouti are Market Gardening Zone Ethiopia: in the scorching heat of summer. currently in Somaliland for the Livestock body conditions in Households in this zone are Alert Status: Watch summer, escaping the heat in Shinille Zone have improved providing supplementary feeding The summer vegetable harvest is Djibouti. Source:FSAU/ FEWS despite rainfall scarcity in some to their milking camel herds. approaching an end . Fruit NET Somalia parts of the

B.P. 96, Djibouti FEWS NET Djibouti Héron/Marabout, Rue de la Paix, Lot 155 Fax: (253)352125 Tel: (253)353343/35 FEWS NET is funded by the US Agency for International Development Email: [email protected] www.fews.net Djibouti Food Security Update July 2005

NATURAL RESOURCES (RAINFALL, WATER AND PASTURE) SITUATION June falls between the Diraa/Sougum1 and Karan/Karma2 Figure 2 Estimated rainfall for March to June 2005 seasons. It is typically the driest month of the year. Insignificant (1-10mm) showers were recorded in elevated inland areas, (percent of short term mean: 1996 – 2003) particularly the Northwest Pastoral Zone and some parts of the Eritrea legend Southeast (Ali-sabieh) and Central Pastoral Livelihood Zones. N 0 - 10% Satellite images indicate that the coastal areas did not receive any ia Obock 10 - 25% rains (Fig 1). Some pockets around Assamo and Guestir received p io h 25 - 50% some unexpected showers during this month. The overall t E Tadjourah cumulative rains (Fig 2) derived from satellite images from 50 - 75% March to June were normal to above normal as compared to the 75 - 100% short term mean (1996-2003), but the temporal distribution was Djibouti 100 - 150% very poor. The rains in most parts of Obock and Arta were Dikhil 150 - 200% below normal during this period. Water catchments are Arta a li practically dry in all rural livelihoods zones and animals are a 200 - 300% m o concentrated around water wells. S >300%

Figure 1: Estimated cumulative rainfall (in mm) for June 2005 Source: USGS

Legend Government water tankering intensified since the beginning of Eritrea N June. Water aquifer levels reportedly declined significantly and 0 severe water shortages exist in the cities of Arta and Wea. These shortages are only likely to increase as the summer wears on. ia Obock 1 - 10 p Additional pledges to the water sector are needed. Both pasture io 10 - 20 th and browse are becoming scarce. A majority of households in the E Tadjourah 20 - 40 Central and Southeast Roadside zones have had to increase to an 40 - 80 unusual degree their purchase of supplementary feeding to support Djibouti 80 - 160 the milk production of female camels who gave birth recently. Karan/Karma rains are expected to start soon . Animal Dikhil 160 - 320 Arta productivity will depend on the onset and performance of rains in a li Ali Sabieh a >320 the coming season. The consensus outlook for the period m o S June to September 2005 indicates an increased likelihood of near

Source: USGS normal to above normal rainfall over Djibouti and adjacent border areas in Ethiopia. Localized variations and temporal distribution problems may occur.

Fig: 3 Seasonal calendar

FOOD AID PIPELINE Expected arrivals in July will resolve a pipeline break that occurred in June. Current food aid requirements in July are estimated at around 1500 MT of which more than half (861MT) is destined for drought affected victims under the Emergency Operation (EMOP 10448.0). However, current stocks available are not adequate to meet the requirements for this month. Considering the time-frame for shipments to arrive and the urgent need to supply food aid to the drought affected victims, WFP is considering internal loans and possibly local purchase to cover the short-term food deficit. Combined, the drought affected case load (47,000) and the longer-term assistance caseload (62,000) will total around 100.000 people. Figure 4: WFP Stock balances report (MT) Food Stock at the Expected Arrivals Food aid available with Requirements for Anticipated Balance at items end of June in July new arrivals July the end of July Cereals 8.8 2383 2391.8 946.0 1445.8 Pulses 78.4 40 118.4 156.0 -37.6 Blends 226.5 268 494.5 179.0 315.5 Oil 51.6 190 241.6 77.0 164.6 Others 235 0 235 138 97 Total 600.3 2881 3481.3 1496 1985.3 Source: WFP Note : Figure 4 shows the amount of food available for WFP operations in July. The table takes into account the stock available at the end of June (either received or expected), requirements (ongoing distribution) and expected physical stocks at the end of July.

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URBAN FOOD AND LIVELIHOOD SECURITY Key Indicators at a Glance Expenditure Indicators Current Situation Key Indicators Explained Cost of staple food Increasing In the city, most necessities are purchased, and thus the key Cost of other food Increasing indicators to monitor are those linked to expenditure and to income. Cost of non-food items Slight decrease The main sources of income for poor households are casual labor, Income Indicators Current Situation petty trade, low paid employment and pensions. Payment of government Regular salaries and pensions Cargo loaded/unloaded at Not Known Djibouti port Current Hazards

The cost of the minimum food and non-food basket for poor Figure 5 Cost of expenditure Basket for households increased (1%) compared to last month. The V.Poor HH - Djibouti City increase is attributable to a 2% rise in staple food prices, countered by a 1% decrease in the cost of the non-food basket. The price of sugar rose most significantly, by 19%. 23 This is due to re-exportation because of serious deficits in this needed commodity in Ethiopia. Milk powder, tea and salt 22 prices increased by 8%, 7%, and 5% respectively. These 21 increase were partially off-set by decreases in the cost of 20 sorghum, cooking oil and beans by 2%, 4% and 5% 19 respectively. The 1% decrease in the cost of the total non- 18

Jan-02 Mar-02 May-02 Jul-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 Jan-03 Mar-03 May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 food basket is due to a drop in soap prices. Kerosene prices

Thousand FDper month are still high and government program to stabilize is still not fully operational. With summer incomes lower than other Total basket cost times of year, due to a drop in petty trade and other services Watch level while better-off households are out of the city, poor

Source: DISED/FEWS NET households have been forced to reduce their expenditure on Notes: Figure 5 shows trends in the cost of expenditure of very poor households in either minimum non staple food and/or non-food items. The Djibouti city. nutritional status of poor urban households is likely to deteriorate during this summer. Khamsin winds are approaching and there is a higher risk of fire, particularly for poor households in wood and corrugated iron huts, which are more vulnerable to fire. Possible response options • Price control policy to keep costs in check; • Acceleration of the kerosene price stabilization scheme; • Increased vigilance and rapid deployment of fire brigades.

DESERT LOCUST THREAT

According to FAO, locust swarms arrived late May in Darfur, and from there moved to central and eastern Sudan, with one swarm reportedly Figure 6: Desert locust infestation as of July 5, 2005 moving into Northern Ethiopia where it dispersed. Swarms have been spotted in far western Tigray and Amhara regions in Ethiopia and government officials together with the Desert Locust Control Organisation (DLCO-EA) started control campaigns to fight swarms evaluated at a density of around 300,000 locusts per hectare, according to IRIN. No locusts were seen in Djibouti during a survey carried out in June on the coast between Tadjourah and Obock and on the northern coastal plains between Obock and Eritrean border. Although the FAO forecast indicate no significant developments are likely to occur in Djibouti, the areas supplying Djibouti in both livestock and cereals (Ethiopia and Somaliland) are at high risk. Solitary migratory locusts have been reported as close as Kalawleh and Karuure areas in Somaliand, less than 100km from the border of Djibouti Source: FAO/DLIS where Djiboutian pastoralist migrated currently. If the swarms move into Djibouti serious damage could occur to the limited pasture and browse within a short of period. Intensive monitoring of the situation should continue on a regular basis throughout the summer, as the main Karan rains are approaching.

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