BORDER BAROMETER a Project of the Border Policy Research Institute at Western Washington University and the University at Buffalo Regional Institute

February 2010

49th PARALLEL BORDER BAROMETER A project of the Border Policy Research Institute at Western Washington University and the University at Buffalo Regional Institute

For the eight northern border ports featured in this brief, 2008’s perfect storm of economic recession, stricter border controls and industry churn, particularly in the auto sector, yielded a decline in cross-border auto and truck traffic of 4.8 percent and a drop in the value of U.S.- Canadian trade of 9 percent. Not all ports fared similarly, however, revealing important regional variation. Although this edition of the Border Barometer provides a good foundation for informing policy, further data gathering and analysis are important future steps for border policymaking. BORDER BAROMETER

The international border that binds Canada and Developed through a partnership of the Border Policy the United States is the subject of debate among Research Institute of Western Washington University policymakers and stakeholders in binational regions and University at Buffalo Regional Institute, the Border and beyond. Much of this focus is on security, but Barometer is a tool that provides a U.S. perspective understanding how border performance relates to the on northern border performance. It seeks to provide economic competitiveness of Canada and the United researchers, policymakers and other interested parties States – and crafting policies that enhance their with a better understanding of economic conditions and collective position in the global economy -- also is critical, trends along the entire border and at individual ports of particularly in the current economic environment. entry. This publication serves as the second edition of the Border Barometer, with the inaugural issue released in February 2009. The Border Barometer has been funded by the BORDERNET initiative of the Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade.

BLAINE, WA SWEETGRASS, MT PORTAL, PEMBINA, ND ND

CHAMPLAIN, NY

The Border Barometer uses publicly available data to measure performance in terms of porosity (economic flows of goods and people across the border), and infrastructure (the capacity to support flows) according to the following indicators: PORT HURON, MI BUFFALO- DETROIT, MI NIAGARA FALLS, NY INDICATORS POROSIT Y: TRUCK AND RAIL TRADE FLOWS, 1995-2008, IN BILLIONS 1,2 COMMODITY COMPOSITION, 2008, WITH EXPORT SPECIALIZATION ANALYSIS 1,3,4 TRAFFIC BY MONTH, 2007-2008, WITH SEASONAL VARIATION ANALYSIS 5

BORDER INFRASTRUCTURE: BOOTH DISTRIBUTION, 2008

In addition to expanding coverage to eight ports of entry, this edition of the Border Barometer offers three features:

NORTHERN BORDER TRENDS COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVES INDIVIDUAL PORT SNAPSHOTS

RANK 8.5% a section that highlights a tool to compare and SWEETGRASS one-page detailed #8 6.4% northern border trends rank performance of DETROIT summaries of performance and individual port each port according to 3.5% for each port. variation from these specific metrics. 0 5 10 trends.

2 NORTHERN BORDER TRENDS

To provide a comprehensive border-wide perspective of porosity, this section examines border-wide truck and rail two-way trade flows from 1995-2008, commodity composition in 2008 and 2007-2008 monthly traffic flows.

U.S. TRUCK TRADE FLOWS, 1995-2008, IN BILLIONS TRADE FLOWS EXPORTS IMPORTS Trucking dominates commercial $150 exchange between Canada and the United States and serves as a critical lifeline for these economies. Border- $100 wide trend data suggest that the value of truck exports declined slightly from $156 billion to $150.8 billion between $50 2007 and 2008. A closer look at individual port performance, however, $00 indicates that truck exports actually

’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 rose at six of the eight ports examined, 1995 2008 2007 with only Detroit and Buffalo – the largest ports of entry on the northern 2007 2008 border -- experiencing declines during EXPORTS $156 billion $150.8 billion this period. These drops are most likely attributed to fallout from the IMPORTS $104.4 billion $85.4 billion recession, particularly in the hard-hit auto industry.

U.S. RAIL TRADE FLOWS, 1995-2008, IN BILLIONS With regard to rail trends in cross- border trade, imports are far greater EXPORTS IMPORTS than exports – a pattern in place since $50 $0 1995. Exports continued a seven-year trend, increasing border-wide between $0 2007-2008. This trend is reflected at

’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 each port of entry except for Detroit. 1995 2008 2007 In the recent past, rail flows into the United States increased border-wide, 2007 2008 however, 2007-2008 witnessed a EXPORTS $22.8 billion $24.9 billion decrease, which is reinforced by activity at each port of entry except for IMPORTS $45.8 billion $38.5 billion Pembina and Portal.

3 NORTHERN BORDER TRENDS

COMMODITY COMPOSITION

Taking a look at what flows over the borderWood Fab is csas C thing,important Paper Product as understanding how goods move between CanadaMet ls, Met li 5 r and the United States. In 20089% manufactured goods dominated trade flows in terms of exports (55 percent) and imports (41 percent), thus serving as the foundation of our U.S. COMMODITY COMPOSITION, 2008 interdependent economies. Two-way exchange of goods classified as 1% EXPORTS IMPORTS 3% minerals, ores, chemicals

Food, Beverages, Agricultural Commodities and the like (18 percent of 9% 10% exports and 19 percent Minerals, Ores, Chemicals, Plastics, Rubber, Fossil Fuels of imports) and food and Wood, Fabrics, Clothing, Paper Products, Books 18% ls O es, Chemicals asti s Rubb r Fossil Fuels 19% beverage products (9 othMetals, ng, Pa erMetallic Pro uc s, BooksMaterials percent of exports and 10 percent of imports) was 54% ctManufactured re G o s Goods 41% 9% Other ds Goods essentially even. More 13% of a disparity between 9% exports and imports 14% exists with the remaining commodity groups.

1 TRUCK TRAFFIC ENTERING U.S. BY MONTH, 2007-2008 606,491 MONTHLY TRAFFIC ENTERING U.S. - TRUCK AND AUTO TRUCKS8% 530,006 There is generally less seasonal variation in truck traffic when compared to car flows across the border. Nonetheless, truck flows experienced a steep decline in 514,972 late 2007, picking up slightly in early 2008 only to drop 382,977 steadily – and significantly -- during the last quarter. This trend is consistent at each port of entry. Jul Jul Jan Jan Jun Jun Oct Oct Feb Feb Apr Apr Sep Sep Dec Dec Aug Aug Nov Nov Mar Mar May May Summer is high season for cars crossing the border, 2007 2008 with peak periods occurring in July and August at most ports of entry. August 2008 auto traffic peaked higher when compared to 2007 (3,277,277 versus 3,327,485), but underperformed in each month HIGHEST COUNT LOWEST COUNT thereafter when compared to 2007 levels.

AUTO TRAFFIC ENTERING U.S BY MONTH, 2007-2008

3,277,277 3,327,485

AUTOS

1,804,266 1,833,417 Jul Jul Jan Jan Jun Jun Oct Oct Feb Feb Apr Apr Sep Sep Dec Dec Aug Aug Nov Nov Mar Mar May May 2007 2008

4 Find COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVES COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVES on each Port Snapshot page

Four metrics are used to provide a comparative perspective on border performance: . Percentage Change in Total Trade Value, 2007-2008 RANK . Dependency on Manufacturing Commodities, 2008 #1 . Degree of Seasonal Variation in Car Traffic, 2008 PORTAL . Percentage Decrease in July through December Car Traffic, % Change in Total Trade Value, +13.3% 2007 - 2008 PEMBINA 2007 to 2008 +7.5% SWEETGRASS For each metric, a ranking system was developed, with #1 +1.1% representing the most desirable position and #8 representing the least desirable position vis-à-vis other ports. - 20 - 10 0 +10 +20 CHAMPLAIN -1.5% BLAINE -4.1%

PORT HURON PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN TOTAL TRADE VALUE, 2007-2008 % Not surprisingly, Detroit, with a 19.5 percent decline in total -6.0% NORTHERN BORDER AVERAGE trade value, experienced the most significant decrease -9.0% RANK between 2007 and 2008, followed by Buffalo at 10.8 percent. RANK #8 BFLO/NF DETROIT On the other hand, Portal came in with a 13.3 percent -10.8% 68.0% #8 increase in trade value for the same period – an unparalleled DETROIT BFLO/NF -19.5% 48.3% increase not seen at any other port and well above the SWEETGRASS northern border average of a 9-percent decline. 48.1% NORTHERN BORDER AVERAGE 47.3% DEPENDENCY ON MANUFACTURING COMMODITIES, 2008 PORT HURON A heavy reliance on manufacturing commodities is less desirable, Dependency on 45.7% reflecting a more vulnerable position when the economy takes a Manufacturing PEMBINA Commodities, 44.9% downturn. Manufactured goods dominated both truck and rail exports in 2008 BLAINE 2008. Yet imports for these modes were far more varied at all ports except for 37.0% those located in Great Lakes states (Port Huron, Detroit and Buffalo). PORTAL RANK 35.8% When exports and imports are analyzed together, Champlain is the port with #1 CHAMPLAIN the least dependence on manufactured goods, at 29.2 percent. At the other 29.2% end of the spectrum, Detroit is most dependent, with 68 percent of all trade drawn from manufactured commodities. 0 20 40 60 80

DEGREE OF SEASONAL VARIATION IN PERCENTAGE DECREASE IN JULY THROUGH DECEMBER CAR TRAFFIC, 20085 CAR TRAFFIC, 2007 TO 2008 According to the ranking system, a In 2008, all ports saw declines in July through December car higher degree of seasonal variation Degree of Seasonal traffic compared to the Variation in Car RANK is desirable, as these peaks Traffic, 2008 same period in 2007. provide an added boost to regional Detroit experienced a DETROIT #8 % Change in CHAMPLAIN -16.2% July through economies dependent upon 22.4% 16.2 percent decrease seasonal industries. Five of the in car traffic during the CHAMPLAIN December Car PEMBINA #1 -12.7% Traffic, eight ports experienced double- latter half of 2008. Five 2007 to 2008 19.8% RANK SWEETGRASS digit seasonal variation, ranging PORTAL of the remaining ports -10.5% from 11.2 percent (Port Huron) 16.0% came in at or below the NORTHERN BORDER AVERAGE BFLO/NF -7.3% to 22.4 percent northern border average BFLO/NF (Champlain). 15.1% of 7.3 percent. NORTHERN BORDER AVERAGE -7.3% Detroit and 12.0% PEMBINA -7.2% Sweetgrass were on PORT HURON the lower end of PORTAL 11.2% -5.1% the spectrum, BLAINE RANK 8.5% BLAINE with relatively SWEETGRASS -4.5% #8 RANK modest 6.4% PORT seasonal DETROIT HURON #1 -3.5% fluctuation. 3.5% 0 5 10 15 20 25 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0

5 PORT : BLAINE, WASHINGTON

POROSIT Y: TRADE FLOWS, 1995-2008, IN BILLIONS >> The recent decline in U.S. housing construction TRUCK EXPORTS IMPORTS contributed to a drop in $10 imports at Blaine, which is a major import gateway for $8 wood products. $6

$4 COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVES RANK $2 % Change in Total Trade Value, 2007 to 2008 -4.1% #5 $0

’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 Dependency on Manufacturing 1995 2008 #3 2007 Commodities in 2008 37.0% Degree of Seasonal Variation in Car Traffic, 2008 8.5% #6 2007 2008 EXPORTS $8.2 billion $8.5 billion % Decrease in July through December Car Traffic, 2007 to 2008 -4.5% #2 IMPORTS $3.8 billion $3.1 billion

RAIL EXPORTSEXPORTS IMPORTSIMPORTS BORDER INFRASTRUCTURE: BOOTH DISTRIBUTION, 2008 $2$2

$0 $0 COMMERCIAL AUTO ’96 ’9 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’0 ’0 ’0 ’04 ’0 ’06

’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 NEXUS OR 199 2008 200 1995 2008 2007 STANDARDod, FAST Bev ,STANDARD Agricultural Co modFLEXIBLE ties

Peace Arch - a ap8 Boo 2007 2008 llic M Peace Arch16% -- 10  EXPORTS $711 million $774 million od IMPORTS $1.6 billion $1.4 billion Pacific Highway 3  6  Pacific Highway12% 3  7 

POROSIT Y: COMMODITY COMPOSITION, 2008 6% EXPORTS IMPORTS 18% 17% EXPORT Food, Beverages, Agricultural Commodities d Bev rage gric ltur l C mm dit es SPECIALIZATIONS4 Minerals,Minerals Or sOres, Chemicals, Chemicals, Plast cs, Rubber, Plastics, Fossi FuelsRubber, Fossil Fuels 23% Animal & Animal Products;

Wood, Fabrics, Clothing, Paper Products, Books Foodstuffs; Chemical & 16% e ial 15% Allied Industries; Mineral 46% nufactu e Goods Metals, Metallic Materials Products; Miscellaneous

Manufactured Goods 8% (Furniture and Toys) 12% Other Goods 8% 31%

POROSIT Y: TRAFFIC ENTERING U.S BY MONTH, 2007-2008

HIGHEST COUNT LOWEST COUNT 300,374 284,004 32,782 TRUCKS 30,306 AUTOS

25,038 171,823 169,148 23,090 Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jun Jun Jun Jun Oct Oct Oct Oct Feb Feb Feb Feb Apr Apr Apr Apr Sep Sep Sep Sep Dec Dec Dec Dec Aug Aug Aug Aug Nov Nov Nov Nov Mar Mar Mar Mar May May May May 2007 2008 2007 2008

6 PORT : SWEETGRASS, MONTANA

POROSIT Y: TRADE FLOWS, 1995-2008, IN BILLIONS >> This port surged to a large trade surplus in recent TRUCK EXPORTS IMPORTS years. High value exports $6 (manufactured goods) were $5 countered by commodities of $4 lower value (agriculture, ores). $3

$0 COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVES

’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 RANK 1995 2008 2007 % Change in Total Trade Value, 2007 to 2008 1.1% #3 2007 2008 Dependency on Manufacturing EXPORTS $5.3 billion $5.7 billion Commodities in 2008 48.1% #6 IMPORTS $3.3 billion $3.0 billion Degree of Seasonal Variation in Car Traffic 6.4% #7 % Decrease in July through December Car Traffic, 2007 to 2008 -10.5% #6 RAIL EXPORTS IMPORTS

$1 BORDER INFRASTRUCTURE: $0

’ ’ ’ ’ ’ ’ ’ ’ ’ ’ BOOTH DISTRIBUTION, 2008 19 20 20 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 1995 2008 2007

COMMERCIALWood erAUTO P od 2007 2008 NEXUS ls OR EXPORTS $654 million $876 million STANDARD FASTa STANDARD ufactu ed Go FLEXIBLE

IMPORTS $701 million $552 million Sweetgrass 2  3  Sweetgrass% 3  3 

POROSIT Y: COMMODITY COMPOSITION, 2008

11% EXPORTS IMPORTS 10% 22% EXPORT oFood, Beverages Beverages, Agricultur Agricultural l Commod ties Commodities SPECIALIZATIONS4 in O , a s, s bbe o ue Chemicals and Allied 20% Minerals, Ores, Chemicals, Plastics, Rubber, Fossil Fuels Industries; Foodstuffs; Wood Fabrics Clothing Paper Products, Books 56% Metals Metallic Materials Footwear/Headgear; ufa tu ed Goods 38% Metals, Metallic Materials Service; Machinery/ 4% 20% Manufactured Goods Electrical 9% Other Goods 6% 4%

POROSIT Y: TRAFFIC ENTERING U.S BY MONTH, 2007-2008 27,941 28,071 HIGHEST COUNT LOWEST COUNT

12,865 TRUCKS 12,249 AUTOS

16,705 10,347 15,176 9,468 Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jun Jun Jun Jun Oct Oct Oct Oct Feb Feb Feb Feb Apr Apr Apr Apr Sep Sep Sep Sep Dec Dec Dec Dec Aug Aug Aug Aug Nov Nov Nov Nov Mar Mar Mar Mar May May May May 2007 2008 2007 2008

7 PORT : PORTAL, NORTH DAKOTA

POROSIT Y: TRADE FLOWS, 1995-2008, IN BILLIONS >> This port boasts the

TRUCK EXPORTS IMPORTS busiest rail crossing between $5 the Rockies and the Great Lakes, with rail-borne imports $4 exceeding truck-borne imports. $3

$0 COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVES ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 1995 2008 2007 RANK % Change in Total Trade Value, 2007 2008 2007 to 2008 13.3% #1 EXPORTS $4.5 billion $5.3 billion Dependency on Manufacturing IMPORTS $1.1 billion $1.1 billion Commodities in 2008 35.8% #2 Degree of Seasonal Variation in Car Traffic, 2008 16.0% #3 RAIL EXPORTS IMPORTS $3 % Decrease in July through December Car Traffic, 2007 to 2008 -5.1% #3 $2

$1 BORDER INFRASTRUCTURE: BOOTH DISTRIBUTION, 2008 $0 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06

1995 2008 2007 COMMERCIAL AUTO

NEXUS OR 2007 2008 , STANDARD FAST STANDARD FLEXIBLE EXPORTS $2.4 billion $2.9 billion

IMPORTS $2.9 billion $3.1 billion Portal 3  1 - Portal 1  1 -

POROSIT Y: COMMODITY COMPOSITION, 2008 3% 6% EXPORTS IMPORTS 10% Food Beverages Agricultural Commodities 21% EXPORT Beverages Agricultural Comm di i s SPECIALIZATIONS4 23% Minerals,ner l , Ores, Chem Ores, c sChemicals, P a t cs, Rub er,Plastics, ssi u Rubber, s Fossil Fuels 11% Chemicals & Allied Wood,Met Fabrics ls M talli Clothing, Mat i Paper Products, Books Industries; Metals; 54% Machinery/Electrical; Metals,actured Goods Metallic Materials 9% 3% Plastics/Rubbers; Manufactured Goods Transportation 14% Other Goods 46%

POROSIT Y: TRAFFIC ENTERING U.S BY MONTH, 2007-2008 11,654 HIGHEST COUNT LOWEST COUNT 10,642 7,663 TRUCKS 6,998 AUTOS

5,211 5,061 4,809 4,063 Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jun Jun Jun Jun Oct Oct Oct Oct Feb Feb Feb Feb Apr Apr Apr Apr Sep Sep Sep Sep Dec Dec Dec Dec Aug Aug Aug Aug Nov Nov Nov Nov Mar Mar Mar Mar May May May May 2007 2008 2007 2008

8 PORT : PEMBINA, NORTH DAKOTA

POROSIT Y: TRADE FLOWS, 1995-2008, IN BILLIONS >> Served by interstate and $10 situated well to carry tourism TRUCK EXPORTS IMPORTS between the U.S. Midwest and $8 the Canadian Prairies, this port exhibits large summer peaks in $6 car traffic.

$0 COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVES

’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 RANK 1995 2008 2007 % Change in Total Trade Value, 2007 to 2008 7.5% #2 2007 2008 EXPORTS $7.9 billion $8.7 billion Dependency on Manufacturing Commodities in 2008 44.9% #4 IMPORTS $3.8 billion $3.4 billion Degree of Seasonal Variation in Car Traffic, 2008 19.8% #2 RAIL % Decrease in July through #4 EXPORTS IMPORTS December Car Traffic, 2007 to 2008 -7.2%

$2 BORDER INFRASTRUCTURE: $0 BOOTH DISTRIBUTION, 2008 19 20 20 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 1995 2008 2007

, COMMERCIAL AUTO 2007 2008 NEXUS OR

EXPORTS $451 million $757 million STANDARD FAST STANDARD FLEXIBLE

IMPORTS $1.2 billion $1.5 billion d Pembina 3  4  Pembina 2  3 

POROSIT Y: COMMODITY COMPOSITION, 2008

EXPORTS IMPORTS 7% 7%

Food, Be e agBeverages, A ricu t r Agricultural Commod t es Commodities EXPORT 17% 28% 4 Minerals,Minerals, O e Ores, Chem als,Chemicals, P astics, R Plastics, ber, Fossil Rubber, els Fossil Fuels SPECIALIZATIONS 28% Vegetable Products; Wood, Fabrics, Clothing, Paper Products, Books a ls 57% Machinery/Electrical; 9% ufacturedMetals, oodsMetallic Materials Textiles; Chemicals

Manufactured Goods & Allied Industries; 10% Metals Other Goods 6% 21% 10%

47,283 POROSIT Y: TRAFFIC ENTERING U.S BY MONTH, 2007-2008 45,463

HIGHEST COUNT LOWEST COUNT

21,295 TRUCKS 20,594 AUTOS

17,394 17,577 15,481 12,482 Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jun Jun Jun Jun Oct Oct Oct Oct Feb Feb Feb Feb Apr Apr Apr Apr Sep Sep Sep Sep Dec Dec Dec Dec Aug Aug Aug Aug Nov Nov Nov Nov Mar Mar Mar Mar May May May May 2007 2008 2007 2008

9 PORT : PORT HURON, MICHIGAN

POROSIT Y: TRADE FLOWS, 1995-2008, IN BILLIONS >> The rail-borne trade flows at Port Huron are the greatest $25 TRUCK EXPORTS IMPORTS of any port, and as at most rail $20 gateways, trains carry more $15 goods into the U.S. than out.

$10

$0 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 1995 2008 2007 COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVES

2007 2008 RANK EXPORTS $20.4 billion $22.2 billion % Change in Total Trade Value, 2007 to 2008 -6.0% #6 2 IMPORTS $12.2 billion $10.92 billion Dependency on Manufacturing RAIL Commodities in 2008 45.7% #5 $10$25 EXPORTS IMPORTS Degree of Seasonal Variation in 11.2% #5 $20$5 Car Traffic, 2008

$15 % Decrease in July through $0 December Car Traffic, 2007 to 2008 -3.5% #1 $10

$5 BORDER INFRASTRUCTURE: BOOTH DISTRIBUTION, 2008 $0 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 1995 2008 2007

COMMERCIAL AUTO

NEXUS OR 2007 2008 STANDARD FAST STANDARD FLEXIBLE EXPORTS $6.1 billion $6.2 billion

IMPORTS $15.5 billion $11.6 billion Port Huron 7  7  Port8% Huron 5  11 

POROSIT Y: COMMODITY COMPOSITION, 2008 3% EXPORTS IMPORTS 11% 4% EXPORT Food Beverages Beverages Agr cultural CommoditAgricultural es Commodities 19% SPECIALIZATIONS4 inerMinerals, s, Ores, Ch Ores, m c Chemicals, s tics, Ru Plastics, er, F ss lsRubber, Fossil Fuels Chemicals and Allied Wood, Fabrics Clothing, Paper Products, Books 45% 27% Met l M tall Materia Industries; Plastics/ facturedMetals, G odsMetallic Materials 46% 8% Rubbers; Raw Hides, Skins, Leathers & Manufactured Goods Furs; Mineral Products; 8% Other Goods 20% Textiles 9%

POROSIT Y: TRAFFIC ENTERING U.S BY MONTH, 2007-2008 189,889 HIGHEST COUNT LOWEST COUNT 178,249 72,785 67,768 TRUCKS AUTOS

51,679 103,074 103,469 45,296 Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jun Jun Jun Jun Oct Oct Oct Oct Feb Feb Feb Feb Apr Apr Apr Apr Sep Sep Sep Sep Dec Dec Dec Dec Aug Aug Aug Aug Nov Nov Nov Nov Mar Mar Mar Mar May May May May 2007 2008 2007 2008

10 PORT : DETROIT, MICHIGAN

POROSIT Y: TRADE FLOWS, 1995-2008, IN BILLIONS >> With a less diversified commodity structure than other ports, Detroit took the TRUCK EXPORTS IMPORTS biggest hit in terms of truck, $60 rail and auto flows from 2007 to 2008. $40

$20 COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVES RANK $0 % Change in Total Trade Value, ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 -19.5% #8 1995 2008

2007 2007 to 2008 Dependency on Manufacturing Commodities in 2008 68.0% #8 2007 2008 EXPORTS $57.1 billion $48.5 billion Degree of Seasonal Variation in Car Traffic, 2008 3.5% #8 IMPORTS $35.0 billion $26.3 billion % Decrease in July through December Car Traffic, 2007 to 2008 -16.2% #8

RAIL EXPORTS IMPORTS BORDER INFRASTRUCTURE: $20 BOOTH DISTRIBUTION, 2008

$00 COMMERCIAL AUTO ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 esNEXUS OR 1995 2008 2007 STANDARD FAST STANDARD FLEXIBLE

oo l ro Ambassador Bridge 13  19  2007 2008 Ambassador7% Bridge 18  11  EXPORTS $7.9 billion $6.9 billion

IMPORTS $8.7 billion $5.9 billion Detroit–Windsor Tunnel 2  9  Detroit–Windsor Tunnel 3  9 

POROSIT Y: COMMODITY COMPOSITION, 2008 3% 8% EXPORTS IMPORTS 6% EXPORT 10% Food Beverages Beverages Agr cultural CommAgricultural di i s Commodities 11% SPECIALIZATIONS4 Minerals,ner ls, Ores, Chem Ores, c Chemicals, s P a t cs, Rub er,Plastics, ss u Rubber, s Fossil Fuels 5% 5% Transportation; Service; Animal & Wood,Met Fabrics, ls M tall Clothing, Mat i Paper Products, Books 7% Animal Products; facturedMetals, Goods Metallic Materials 9% Machinery/Electrical;

70% Manufactured Goods 66% Wood and Wood Other Goods Products

POROSIT Y: TRAFFIC ENTERING U.S BY MONTH, 2007-2008

162,6121 HIGHEST COUNT LOWEST COUNT

139,521 498,339 TRUCKS AUTOS 437,548 115,664 393,167 91,580 336,200 Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jun Jun Jun Jun Oct Oct Oct Oct Feb Feb Feb Feb Apr Apr Apr Apr Sep Sep Sep Sep Dec Dec Dec Dec Aug Aug Aug Aug Nov Nov Nov Nov Mar Mar Mar Mar May May May May 2007 2008 2007 2008

11 PORT : BUFFALO-NIAGARA FALLS, NEW YORK

>> With vacations and tourism POROSIT Y: TRADE FLOWS, 1995-2008, IN BILLIONS in high gear during summer, the four border crossings at Buffalo- TRUCK EXPORTS IMPORTS Niagara Falls manage the $30 highest levels of auto traffic.

$20 COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVES RANK

% Change in Total Trade Value, $10 2007 to 2008 -10.8% #7 Dependency on Manufacturing #7 $0 Commodities in 2008 48.3%

’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 Degree of Seasonal Variation in 1995 2008 2007 Car Traffic, 2008 15.1% #4 % Decrease in July through 2007 2008 December Car Traffic, 2007 to 2008 -7.3% #5 EXPORTS $30.7 billion $28.4 billion IMPORTS $19.4 billion $15.2 billion BORDER INFRASTRUCTURE: BOOTH DISTRIBUTION, 2008 RAIL EXPORTS IMPORTS COMMERCIAL AUTO $10 NEXUS OR STANDARD FAST STANDARD FLEXIBLE

Peace Bridge 7  11  $0 1 2 Peace Bridge 4 14 2  

’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 1995 2008 - - 2007 Rainbow20% Bridge 15  Rainbow Bridge - - 14 P  B

2007 2008 Whirlpool Bridge - - 2  Whirlpool Bridge - - 1  EXPORTS $2.2 billion $3.1 billion - IMPORTS $5.1 billion $4.5 billion Lewiston Queenston Bridge 4  6 Lewiston 1Queenston0% Bridge 3  6 -

POROSIT Y: COMMODITY COMPOSITION, 2008 4%

7% EXPORTS IMPORTS 8% Food, Beverages, Agricultural Commodities o Be erages Agricult Comm i ies EXPORT 20% 18% 4 Minerals,Mine a s, Or sOres, Chem cals,Chemicals, Plastics, R bberPlastics, Fossil uelsRubber, Fossil Fuels SPECIALIZATIONS

Wood, Fabrics, Clothing, Paper Products, Books Footwear/Headgear; t al Textiles; Plastics/ 50% 47% nufacturedMetals, GoodsMetallic Materials Rubbers; Vegetable 9% 13% Manufactured Goods Products; Stone/Glass Other Goods 10% 14%

POROSIT Y: TRAFFIC ENTERING U.S BY MONTH, 2007-2008 740,593 717,101 HIGHEST COUNT LOWEST COUNT

100,457 TRUCKS 88,949 AUTOS

71,369 348,168 65,987 326,683 Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jun Jun Jun Jun Oct Oct Oct Oct Feb Feb Feb Feb Apr Apr Apr Apr Sep Sep Sep Sep Dec Dec Dec Dec Aug Aug Aug Aug Nov Nov Nov Nov Mar Mar Mar Mar May May May May 2007 2008 2007 2008

12 PORT : CHAMPLAIN, NEW YORK

POROSIT Y: TRADE FLOWS, 1995-2008, IN BILLIONS >> Distant from the industrial Midwest and TRUCK EXPORTS IMPORTS close to timber resources, $10 this port accommodates

$8 a relatively small flow of manufactured goods. $6

$0 COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVES

’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 RANK 1995 2008 2007 % Change in Total Trade Value, 2007 to 2008 -1.5% #4 2007 2008 Dependency on Manufacturing EXPORTS $6.7 billion $7.4 billion Commodities in 2008 29.2% #1 IMPORTS $7.1 billion $6.2 billion Degree of Seasonal Variation in Car Traffic, 2008 22.4% #1 RAIL % Decrease in July through #7 EXPORTSEXPORT IMPORTSIMPORT December Car Traffic, 2007 to 2008 -12.7% $2$

$0$ BORDER INFRASTRUCTURE:

’9 ’9 ’9 ’99 ’0 ’0 ’0 ’0 ’0 ’0 ’0 BOOTH DISTRIBUTION, 2008 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 199 200 200 1995 2008 2007

COMMERCIALMin ra , AUTOcs, Ru 2007 2008 , NEXUS OR EXPORTS $392 million $401 million STANDARD FASTals, STANDARD Meta c MaFLEXIBLE al

IMPORTS $1.5 billion $1.4 billion Champlain 9  he10 G  Champlain % 3  7 

POROSIT Y: COMMODITY COMPOSITION, 2008 2% 4% EXPORTS IMPORTS 7% 11% Food, Beverages, Agricultural Commodities EXPORT 4 g 24% 14% SPECIALIZATIONS Minerals, Ores, Chemicals, Plastics, Rubber, Fossil Fuels Stone/Glass; 36% 22% Wood,d, Fabr cs, Fabrics, Clothing, PaperClothing, Produc sPaper Books Products, Books Vegetable Products; Metals, e l Metallic t r s Materials Animal & Animal Products; Textiles; ManufacturedGoods Goods Plastics/Rubbers Other Goods 18% 32% 9% 20%

POROSIT Y: TRAFFIC ENTERING U.S BY MONTH, 2007-2008 142,061 135,129 HIGHEST COUNT LOWEST COUNT 35,448 35,967 TRUCKS AUTOS

26,611

22,406 50,156 45,963 Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jun Jun Jun Jun Oct Oct Oct Oct Feb Feb Feb Feb Apr Apr Apr Apr Sep Sep Sep Sep Dec Dec Dec Dec Aug Aug Aug Aug Nov Nov Nov Nov Mar Mar Mar Mar May May May May 2007 2008 2007 2008

13 A NORTHERN BORDER RESEARCH AGENDA This edition of the Border Barometer underscores several key themes in Canada-U.S. engagement. Metrics generally reveal that regional variation exists among ports, most evident in commodity flows. Data also suggest that rail exports are up at most ports, pointing to the potential of this transportation mode to future commercial exchange. Yet the Border Barometer highlights that declines in social interaction and steep drops in truck traffic continue to affect economic exchange between actors on both sides of the border. Across the border, imports have taken a hit as well, although it is unclear how much of this drop is due to the economy, changes in the rules of the game or other factors. These findings, coupled with the significance of the northern border to the economies of the United States and Canada, point to the need for policies that better enhance economic competitiveness. The Border Barometer is a good start, providing a solid foundation for analysis. Crafting better policy will depend upon a clear understanding of challenges, new ways of thinking about these challenges and a forum for actors to exercise creative, enlightened leadership and brainstorm about strategy and action steps. Ultimately, stakeholders must become better at telling the story of the border, demonstrating with objective analysis that border policies that strengthen or weaken the Canada-U.S. relationship are the lifeline for continued prosperity.

Going forward, a research agenda with buy-in from the academic, public, private and nonprofit sectors is essential to crafting policies that work. An agenda that posits important yet unanswered questions could include the following:

What if border flows decline at a rate of five percent per year over the next ten years? What if flows increase five percent per year for the next five years? How should the northern border be governed? How does border policy impact the competitiveness of Canada and the US in the global economy? How does the northern border differ from the southern border?

At the end of the day, the hazards of uninformed decision-making are real. Asking and answering the right questions will lay the foundation for the future of these two neighbors and allow policymakers to best address both common and extraordinary challenges presented by the border.

14 D A T A N O T E S

1TRADE FLOWS AND COMMODITY COMPOSITION DATA: Given the Border Barometer’s focus on structured border crossings, data pertain only to land transport (rail and truck), with trade involving energy (pipeline) excluded.

2TRUCK AND RAIL TRADE FLOWS: Truck and rail trade flows calculated for 1995-2008 were adjusted to 1995 values using import and export price index factors obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

3COMMODITY COMPOSITION: Based on the two-digit Harmonized System Codes classification system, the commodity categories used in this report are as follows: Food, beverages, agricultural commodities (1 – 24); Minerals, ores, chemicals plastics, rubber, fossil fuels (25 – 40); Wood, fabrics, clothing, paper products, books (41 – 71); Metals, metallic materials (72 – 83); Manufactured goods (84 – 96); and Other goods (97 – 99). In addition, percentages for the commodity composition pie charts may not add up to 100 because of rounding calculations.

4EXPORT SPECIALIZATIONS: In order to identify sub-sector export specializations, a more detailed sixteen category classification than in Commodity Composition was used. Specializations were determined using a Location Quotient analysis. A statistical measure of concentration, the location quotient indicates the geographical concentration of an activity (in this case, trade by commodity), as a function of the expected concentration based on the average occurring at the eight port universe. For example, ‘Footwear / Headgear’ is a specialization at Buffalo-Niagara Falls because it represents 7% of all trade at the port, but average trade is 4% for all ports.

5SEASONAL VARIATION: This measures the degree to which a port’s automobile traffic is evenly distributed over a year. Based on the assumption that an equal distribution of automobile traffic (25% of car traffic occurring in each quarter) reflects no seasonal variation, this metric calculates the sum of quarterly absolute deviations from equal distribution. For example, the Blaine crossing’s quarterly car traffic breakdown was 23.3% / 25.2% /29.5% /22.5%. The sum of each quarterly deviation from 25% is 8.5%.

DATA SOURCES TRADE FLOWS AND COMMODITY COMPOSITION: U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, North American Transborder Freight Data.

TRAFIC BY MONTH: U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Border Crossing/Entry Data; based on data from U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Customs and Border Protection, OMR database.

BORDER INFRASTRUCTURE: Booth distributions represent estimates based on a compilation of sources and methodologies including: published information on the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol and Canadian Border Services Agency Web sites; the Canada-United States Transportation Border Working Group Online Border Infrastructure Compendium; and visual counts obtained from online aerial map sites.

15 BORDER BAROMETER

University at Buffalo Regional Institute Border Policy Research Institute The State University of New York Western Washington University UB Downtown Gateway 516 High Street 77 Goodell Street, Suite 302 Bellingham, WA 98225-9110 Buffalo, NY 14203

Phone: 360 650-3728 Phone: 716-878-2440 Fax: 360 650-3995 Fax: 716-842-0154 Web: www.wwu.edu/bpri/ Web: www.regional-institute.buffalo.edu E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]