Quantifying Non-Recurring Delay on New York City’s Arterial Highways Project C-01-29 FINAL REPORT Prepared for: New York State Department of Transportation Region 11 Prepared by: Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Polytechnic Institute of NYU Rutgers University City University of New York, City College December 2008 I DISCLAIMER STATEMENT “The contents of this report reflect the views of the author(s) who is (are) responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the data presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official views or policies of the New York State Department of Transportation, University Transportation research Center or the Federal Highway Administration. This report does not constitute a standard, specification, or regulation.” TECHNICAL REPORT STANDARD TITLE PAGE 1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient’s Catalog No. 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date Quantifying Non-Recurring Delay on New York City’s Arterial December 2008 Highways 6. Performing Organization Code 7. Author(s) 8. Performing Organization Report No. George List (RPI and later, NCSU), John Falcocchio (Polytechnic Institute of NYU), Kaan Ozbay (Rutgers) and Kyriakos Mouskos (CUNY – City College) RF 55657-1215 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. Region 2 - University Transportation Research Center The City College of New York 11. Contract or Grant No. New York, NY 10031 13. Type of Report and Period Covered 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address New York State Department of Federal Highway Administration Transportation, 50 Wolf Road U.S. Department of Albany, NY Transportation 14. Sponsoring Agency Code 15. Supplementary Notes 16. Abstract This research project was undertaken for NYSDOT to provide a better understanding of the impacts of traffic incidents/accidents on traffic delays on New York City’s Arterial Highways, and to better quantify and predict non-recurring traffic delay for the city’s arterial highways. The project had two basic goals: (1) the development of New York City input data for the New York City’s application of the New York State DOT’s delay prediction model “CNAM” (Congestion Needs Analysis Model), and (2) investigation of the published literature to identify models / methods that could improve the CNAM approach for estimating non-recurring delay. The research activities consisted of six basic tasks as follows. Task 1 developed the goals and objectives for the research project, and identified the performance measures to be used in the collection and analysis of traffic incident data for New York City. Task 2 contains a review of the models that have been developed for predicting non-recurring delay (NRD). Task 3 was started by searching for potential data sources that could used to identify nonrecurring incident characteristics and performance metrics. The task focused on agencies that are involved in highway incident management/monitoring as well as those that collect roadway attributes data, such as physical roadway and traffic flow characteristics. Task 4 was on Look-up Tables. In this task, the “look up tables” for CNAM’s application in New York City were updated, consistent with data availability. Task 5 described how the new look up tables will change the structure of CNAM and alter its predictions of non-recurring delay. A new set of look up tables are recommended. 17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement Traffic delay, incidents, traffic model, incident management 19. Security Classif (of this report) 20. Security Classif. (of this page) 21. No of Pages 22. Price Unclassified Unclassified 319 Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-69) Executive Summary This research project was undertaken for NYSDOT to provide a better understanding of the impacts of traffic incidents/accidents on traffic delays on New York City’s Arterial Highways, and to better quantify and predict non-recurring traffic delay for the city’s arterial highways. The project had two basic goals: (1) the development of New York City input data (look up tables) for the New York City’s application of the New York State DOT’s delay prediction model “CNAM” (Congestion Needs Analysis Model), and (2) investigation of the published literature to identify models / methods that could improve the CNAM approach for estimating non-recurring delay. The research team comprised of Professors George List (RPI and later, NCSU), John Falcocchio (Polytechnic Institute of NYU), Kaan Ozbay (Rutgers) and Kyriakos Mouskos (CUNY – City College). The research activities consisted of six basic tasks and products as described below. Task 1 – Establishing Goals and Objectives This task developed the goals and objectives for the research project, and identified the performance measures to be used in the collection and analysis of traffic incident data for New York City, and in the review of the published literature to assess the suitability of alternative models (to the CNAM) for estimating non-recurring delay. Task 2 – Review of Non-Recurring Delay Models This task contains a review of the models that have been developed for predicting non-recurring delay (NRD). The literature review did not uncover reliable NRD models in use in practice. The CNAM was found to be as good as or better than those that are in use today. i Task 3 – Data Collection and Analysis The task was started by searching for potential data sources that could used to identify non- recurring incident characteristics and performance metrics. The task focused on agencies that are involved in highway incident management/monitoring as well as those that collect roadway attributes data, such as physical roadway and traffic flow characteristics. The research team initially expected using detailed incident data from the Integrated Incident Management System (IIMS) Demonstration Project, sponsored by the USDOT. This source, however, could not make the necessary information available and a change in venue was made by deciding on the use of TRANSCOM as the primary source of data from incidents recorded for the I-278 Corridor in New York City, from February 1, 2004, to March 31, 2005. The TRANSCOM incident data were complemented with data (volume, roadway geometry, etc.) from other sources to form the basis for incident analysis and CNAM model enhancement. Incident data from TRANSCOM were summarized and cross tabulated for a number of variables, including (1) roadway facility type, (2) types of incident, (2) incident frequency, (3) number of lanes blocked by the incident, (4) incident duration, (5) time of day, (6) day of week, and (7) weather and pavement conditions. These data were used in the development of a model for predicting incident frequency and their duration as well as traffic delay. Because the incident frequency data set in the TRANSCOM database was found to be incomplete, the models’ results must be interpreted with this constraint in mind. Task 4 – Look-up Tables In this task, the “look up tables” for CNAM’s application in New York City were updated, consistent with data availability. Final Tasks Report - Quantifying Non-Recurring Delay on NYC’s Arterial Highways ii Task 5 – Strategy Assessment (Validation of Methodologies) This task describes how the new look up tables will change the structure of CNAM and alter its predictions of non-recurring delay. A new set of look up tables are recommended. The change consists in changing the classification of incidents from what CNAM currently uses (i.e., number of lanes blocked) to one that defines incidents focusing on categories such as “property damage”, disabled vehicle”, personal injury”, etc. This new definition has the added advantage of using CNAM as a planning tool for reducing incident frequency and severity. This is because the delay information provided by the revised model can be directly related to the type of incident. Final Tasks Report - Quantifying Non-Recurring Delay on NYC’s Arterial Highways iii TABLE OF CONTENTS TASK 1: Goals and Objectives 1-1 1.0 Introduction 1-2 2.0 Literature Review 1-2 2.1 New York State DOT 1-2 2.2 CalTrans 1-3 2.3 Other State 1-4 2.4 Local Area Studies 1-5 2.5 FHWA Guidance 1-5 2.6 Other Studies and Papers 1-7 2.6.1 F-SHRP Study 1-8 2.6.2 Integrated Public Safety and Highway Operations 1-8 2.6.3 Judycki and Robinson 1-8 2.6.4 Lindley 1-9 2.6.5 Lomax 1-10 2.6.6 Institute of Transportation Engineers 1-10 2.6.7 Taylor, Saif, Sisiopiku 1-11 3.0 Project-Centered Thoughts 1-11 3.1 Insights from the Literature 1-11 3.2 New Thoughts 1-11 3.3 Summary 1-13 4.0 Conclusions, Recommendations, and Next Steps 1-14 References 1-16 Appendix A More Thoughts on Evaluation Metrics 1-20 Final Tasks Report - Quantifying Non-Recurring Delay on NYC’s Arterial Highways I TASK 2: Review of Non-Recurring Delay Models 2-1 1.0 Introduction 2-2 2.0 Basic Concept 2-3 3.0 Models in Practice 2-5 3.1 TTI Model-Shrank and Lomeax 2-6 3.2 CNAM – NYSDOT 2-6 3.3 IDAS – Cambridge Systematics 2-9 3.4 Concluding Thoughts 2-12 4.0 Other Models 2-12 4.1 Incident Duration 2-13 4.1.1 Regression-Based Analysis 2-14 4.1.2 Hazard Function-Based Analysis 2-17 4.2 Capacity Reduction 2-19 4.3 Incident Delay 2-20 4.4 Simulation-Based Techniques 2-23 4.5 Concluding Remarks 2-25 5.0 Summary and Conclusions 2-25 References 2-28 Appendix 2-34 Final Tasks Report - Quantifying Non-Recurring Delay on NYC’s Arterial Highways II TASK 3 Subtask 3.1: Data Assembly and Analysis 3.1-1 1.0 Background 3.1-2 1.1 Purpose 3.1-2 1.2 Subtask 3.1 3.1-2 2.0 Incident Data Sources 3.1-2 2.1 Directly from the Field 3.1-2 2.2 From Remote Centers 3.1-3 A.