BJP SET TO WREST POWER IN HIMACHAL

The BJP is all set to win the 20017 Assembly elections in with a clear majority. With this the hill state would stay in line with the rhythm it has set for itself since the 1990s by voting out incumbent governments.

Peoples Pulse, a Hyderabad based political research organisation, conducted a week long Mood Survey in HP in the last week of October. This was before the BJP announced as the chief minister candidate.

In this Mood Survey our research scholars conducted group discussions and held wide ranging discussions with people from all sections of the society. Across the state the trend is the same with people clearly in favour of the BJP. The disposition of the voter is such that if the party that it in power at the Centre is also in the state it would ensure a smooth flow of funds and hasten the development process. The party is set to win more than 40 Assembly seats. The ruling Congress would win not more than 20 seats.

Significantly there is no real anti-incumbency against Virabhadra Singh government. On the contrary, the voter is speaking favourably about this government that it has done some positive development work. This anti- incumbency factor, however, is working against the sitting MLAs belonging to both the Congress and the BJP.

------Flat No.402, Surabhi Complex, Opp: Lotus Hospital, Lakadikapool, Khairatabad, HYDERABAD- 500 004. [email protected]

The issues, which are chasing the ruling Congress is the Kotkhai rape case and the forest guard murder case in Mandi. To add to this the Congress is plagued by infighting due to which it has totally failed in projecting a united fight, which in turn has caused a lethargic and aimless campaign. What has further harmed the Congress is that Mr Singh has changed his constituency. Though the people are unhappy with demonetisation and GST the Congress has failed even in remotely capitalising on them.

On the other side the BJP has unleashed a highly energetic and extremely visible campaign. Though there are fraught with groupism between Mr Dhumal, Mr Shanta Kumar and Mr NP Nadda, they have succeeded in putting up a united face during this campaign. Their use of money is very visible.

It also has to be mentioned that there is no visible Modi factor or NaMo sentiment. Actually the role of BJP or Congress national leaders is next to nothing in these Assembly elections.

The Mood Survey was conducted in all the 68 Assembly constituencies. We listed each constituency as ‘sure win’, ‘edge’ and ‘keen contest’. The list is enclosed. The lists have been prepared one week before the scheduled date for elections.

The constituencies are small and in places where the contests are keen or tight and winner would be the one who would take electioneering to a crescendo by the time campaigning ends.

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------Flat No.402, Surabhi Complex, Opp: Lotus Hospital, Lakadikapool, Khairatabad, HYDERABAD- 500 004. [email protected] OVERVIEW OF HIMACHAL PRADESH ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS - 2017

NAME OF THE SURE KEEN S.NO RES EDGE REMARKS AC WIN CONTEST

1 CHURAH SC BJP BJP MLA has better connect than INC candidate

2 BHARMOUR ST BJP corruption charges against Cong candidate

3 CHAMBA GEN INC Tough BJP canadidate deserted INC ,not accepted fully by BJP cadres

4 DALHOUSE GEN Tough BJP new comer giving tough fight to ec-congress Minister

anti-incumency against BJP candidate, 5 BHATTIYAT GEN BJP Tough overall scenrio against Congress

6 NURPUR GEN BJP

7 INDORA SC BJP

Two BJP rebel to help INC 8 FATEHPUR GEN Tough but BJP candidate plus point "Close to Modi"

Flat No.402, Surabhi Complex, Opp: Lotus Hospital, Lakadikapool, Khairatabad, HYDERABAD- 500 004. [email protected] 9 JAWALI GEN BJP Tough Resentment against INC backing one family for ticket

Independent big challenge to BJP, Cong at third place 10 DEHRA GEN Tough Anouncement of Dhumal as CM nominee to help BJP

11 JASWAN-PRAGPUR GEN BJP Tough Congress new comer giving tough fight

12 JAWALAMUKHI GEN BJP Cnogress canidate's rude behaviour an issue

13 JAISINGHPUR SC BJP

14 SULLAH GEN BJP Tough Anti-incumbency against Cong

15 NAGROTA GEN INC Tough Ressoureful Congress minister facinf stiff challenege from BJP

16 KANGRA GEN INC Tough Congress candidate good image,resourceful

17 SHAHPUR GEN Tough BJP(anti-incumbency ),INC( bad image),Independent(Powerful)

18 DHRMASHALA GEN Tough INC(scandal involving women), BJP(ex-minister Gaddi votebank)

Flat No.402, Surabhi Complex, Opp: Lotus Hospital, Lakadikapool, Khairatabad, HYDERABAD- 500 004. [email protected] BJP rebel, a Shanta Kumar Loyalist who was denied ticket, 19 PALAMPUR GEN Tough hurting BJP women candidate who is close to Modi

BJP( newcomer plus point), INC 20 BAIJNATH SC BJP ( sitting MLA did not prform, weak)

Cong candidate has done well but comes from Spiti area 21 LAHAUL&SPITI ST INC Tough which has 35 percent votes, BJP candidate from larger Lahaul area

Arrogance of BJP candidate and unity among 22 MANALI GEN INC waring cong leaders to help Cong

23 KULLUM GEN BJP BJP candidate erstwhile Raja of Kullu

Cong has fielded son of ex-minister Karan Singh who died early this 24 BANJAR GEN INC Tough year, trying to get sympath vote

25 ANNI SC BJP Tough Anti-incumbency against Congress

26 KARSOG SC Tough Anti-incumbency against Congress candidate

BJP could win if ex-minister Roop Singh, 27 SUNDERNAGAR GEN Tough dincerely supports its candidate

28 NACHAM SC BJP Presence of Cong rebel to help BJP

Flat No.402, Surabhi Complex, Opp: Lotus Hospital, Lakadikapool, Khairatabad, HYDERABAD- 500 004. [email protected] 29 SERAJ GEN BJP

30 DARANG GEN Tough INC(anti-incumbency against health minister)

31 JOGINDERNAGAR GEN Tough Resourceful Indepenent giving tough tine to BJP,INC 3rd place

32 DHARMPUR GEN BJP

Ex-telecom ministerSukh Rams clout to help his son now 33 MANDI GEN Tough contesting on BJP ticket butcadres not happy with ticket to Anil

Congress minister having tough time due to coruption charges, 34 BALH SC Tough but has done much for constituency

35 SARKAGHAT GEN INC Congress newcomer giving tough time to sitting BJP MLA

36 BHORANJ SC BJP

37 SUJANPUR GEN BJP

38 HAMIPUR GEN BJP

Flat No.402, Surabhi Complex, Opp: Lotus Hospital, Lakadikapool, Khairatabad, HYDERABAD- 500 004. [email protected] 39 BARSAR GEN BJP

PCC Chief may win seat for Congress if chief minisster 40 NADAUN GEN Tough supports him sincerely

Congress candidate facing anti-incumbecy , 41 CHINTHPURNI SC Tough not done much for constituency

42 GAGRET GEN INC

43 HAROLI GEN INC

State BJP chief facing tough challenge but overall trend 44 UNA GEN BJP Tough in favour of party will help him

45 KUTLEHAR GEN Tough Congress new comer giving tough fight to BJP

BJP has strong candidate but supporters of Ex-minister Raikhi 46 JHANDUTA SC Tough Ram who was denied BJP ticket may resort to undercutting

47 GHUMRAWIN GEN INC Tough Annoucemnt of Dhumal as CM Candidate has negative impact on

48 BILASPUR GEN Tough Announcement of Dhumal as CM candidate has hurt sentiments

Flat No.402, Surabhi Complex, Opp: Lotus Hospital, Lakadikapool, Khairatabad, HYDERABAD- 500 004. [email protected] 49 SRI NAINA DEVIJI GEN BJP Tough Closeness to Dhuma may help BJP candidate

50 ARKI GEN INC Chief Miister Virbhadra Singh's clout to help Cong

51 NALAGARH GEN BJP Congress rebel in field

Resourceful Congress candidate pumps in resources 52 DOON GEN Tough in the final phase

BJP, Cong candidates close relatives 53 SOLAN SC INC but BJP campaign has ot picked up so far

54 KASAULI SC Tough Anti-incumency against BJP candidate may help Cong

55 PACHHAD SC BJP

Cnogress candidte has good connect with people , 56 NAHAN GEN BJP Tough giving tough fight to powerful BJP leader Bindal who shifted from Solan

57 SRIRENUKAJI SC INC Presence of BJP rebel hleping Cong

58 PAONTASAHIB GEN BJP

Flat No.402, Surabhi Complex, Opp: Lotus Hospital, Lakadikapool, Khairatabad, HYDERABAD- 500 004. [email protected] 59 SHILLAI GEN Tough could go either way

60 CHOPAL GEN Tough BJP candidate more resourcful

61 THEOG GEN Tough CPM giving fight to BJP,Congress 3rd place due to exit of Vidya Stokes

62 KASUMPTI GEN INC

Congress rebel, BJP ,CPM in close fight, 63 SHIMLA GEN Tough Congress may end up at of 4rth place

64 SHIML(RURAL) GEN Tough CMs son may eventually win

65 JUBBAL-KOTKHAI GEN Tough could go ether way

Anti-inumency against Cong 66 RAMPUR SC Tough but the fact it is Virbhadra Singhs home seat

67 ROHRU SC INC Traditona strong hold of Virbhadra Singh

Congress candidate has done much development 68 KINNAUR ST INC Tough but his arrogance a problem

Flat No.402, Surabhi Complex, Opp: Lotus Hospital, Lakadikapool, Khairatabad, HYDERABAD- 500 004. [email protected]