Making War and Building Peace: The United Nations since the 1990’s Michael W. Doyle Harold Brown Professor of Law and International Affairs Columbia University
[email protected] and Nicholas Sambanis Associate Professor of Political Science Yale University
[email protected] Contents List of figures and tables Acknowledgements i ONE. INTRODUCTION 1 War-Making, Peacebuilding and the United Nations 1 The New Interventionism 5 Generations of UN Peace Operations 9 The Challenge of Peacebuilding 16 Plan of the Book 20 TWO. THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVES 23 Internal (Civil) War and Peacebuilding 23 Theories of Civil War 25 A Definition of Civil War 25 Political-Economic Theories of Civil War Onset 27 International Dimensions of Civil War 35 Civil War Duration, Termination, and Recurrence 39 Implications of Civil War Theory for UN Intervention 44 Type of Conflict and Optimal Peacekeeping Strategy 45 Enhancing Coordination by Improving Communication, Providing Assurance and Building Capacity 47 Enhancing Cooperation by Making Noncompliance Costly and Compliance Cheap, or Transforming the Game 48 Strategic Peacebuilding 50 Defining Peacekeeping Success in a Dynamic Model of Peacebuilding 53 A Peacebuilding Triangle 56 THREE. TESTING PEACEBUILDING STRATEGIES 62 Triangulating Peace 62 The Peacebuilding Dataset 65 The Dependent Variable 65 Explanatory Variables 72 Analysis of Peacebuilding Success in the Short Run 77 Policy Hypothesis and Hypothesis Testing 82 Hostility Indicators 83 Local Capacities Indicators 92 International Capacities Indicators 95 Measuring the Effects of UN Missions on the Probability of Peacebuilding Success 101 Robustness Tests 103 Selection on Observables 105 Long-term Analysis of Peace Duration 108 Index Models of Peacebuilding Success 109 Policy Analysis 110 Conclusion 117 Appendix A: Definition and Coding Rules 119 A.1 Definition and Coding of Civil War 119 A.2 Coding of the Dependent Variable 122 Appendix B: Summary Statistics for Key Variables 123 FOUR.