Ivory Coast Deep Dive 2020
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Ivory Coast - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 1 of 31 Sanctions & Terrorism: No Comprehensive Ivory Coast � Sanctions against the Country, though some former senior leaders are still designated. For Section 1 - Executive Summary Proliferation Tier 3 PPI (Proliferation) Index, reflects lowest threat level but a low score of NRA: The Ivory Coast National Risk 360/1,300 for Controls. Terrorism ratings from Assessment has not yet been published, GTI give Ivory Coast a “Low” impact (Score though the assessment is under way and 2.598/10) 72nd highest out /138. commenced in January, 2019. It is expected to be published in late 2020. Indices: Freedom House 2019 Freedom in the World Report - score 51/100, “partly free”, Grey Lists: The Ivory Coast is not listed as one 54.5/100 in the Mo Ibrahim Index of African by the US as a Country of Primary Concern in Governance, & 6.62/10 ranked 18th worse respect of ML & FC, is not listed by FATF, or the from 129 countries in the Basel AML Index. EU on their Grey lists. Response & Resilience: The Ivory Coast, Corruption: TI CPI - 2019 - ranked the Ivory Coast scores 4.54 for resilience, (response), ranked 106/180, with a score of 35/100 in 2020, (no 18/54 Africa and 6/15 for West Africa in the change on 2018) a score below 50 is indicative of a OC Index. It was last evaluated in 2012, against country struggling with corruption issues. FATF standards, with results reported in 2013 Organised Crime: “High Criminality and Low with no ratings of “Compliant,” with the 40 Resilience” in the OC Index, with a criminality Recommendations, 6 for “Largely score of 6.23, ranked 8/54 Africa & 2/15 W Compliant” (LC),18 for “Partially Africa. The main markets, with highest Compliant” (PC), 24 for “Not Compliant” (NC), criminality scores are Illegal Logging & Mining and 1 Recommendation considered “Not (7.5/10), Human & Arms Trafficking (7/10), Applicable” (NA). The next evaluation, is Wildlife Crime (6.5/10), Drug Trafficking expected to start in February 2021. (Cannabis & Synthetics (6/10) & Human Smuggling 5/10. On Groups, State enabled Overall Ratings: Ivory Coast is rated overall actors (8/10) received the highest score, “Mod - High” Risk, 4th highest risk out of 13 followed by Criminal networks, and Foreign West African Countries and 13th highest risk actors (7.5/10), and Mafia style groups (3/10). out of 40 in FCN’s SSA Threat Assessment with a score of 45/100, and with an “Improving” Slavery: US Trafficking in Persons: Tier 2 trend. Country; Global Slavery Index: 56/167 Countries, 31/51 African Countries, with FCN Rating “Mod - High” Risk 45/100 137,000 modern day slaves, incidence of Trend “Improving” 5.9/1000 people and a “B” response. Ivory Coast - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 2 of 31 Section 2 - Country Dashboard Ivory Coast ↗ Improving Capital/Population: Yamoussoukro/Abidjan / 27.5 million (2020) President: President Alassane Dramane Quattara (since 2010) GDP: US$43 billion (2017) (2.7% of SSA GDP) Economic Sector Breakdown: Agriculture (20%), Industry (27%), Services (53% Exports: US$11.7 billion (2017 est.) Cocoa , coffee, timber, petroleum, cotton, bananas, pineapple, palm oil, fish to Netherlands 11.8%, US 7.9%, France 6.4%, Belgium 6.4%, Germany 5.8%, Burkina Faso 4.5%, India 4.4%, Mali 4.2% (2017) Imports: US$9.4 billion (2017 est.) fuel, capital equipment, foodstuffs from Nigeria 15%, France 13.4%, China 11.3%, US 4.3% (2017). Score: 45/100 “Mod-High” FCN Risk Rating (Average Country Score is 32 - SSA ) Proceeds / Laundering Rank: 16/40 SSA - 6/13 Region WA range 8% - 11% GDP / 40 - 50% of Proceeds Organised Crime Costs of Corruption range up to approx 34 - 36% of Proceeds range up to approx 10 - 15% of Proceeds (State Enabled 8/10, Criminal Networks 7.5/10, Foreign Actos 7.5/10, Mafia Style 3/10) Ivory Coast Higher (Inherent) Risk Factors Total Criminal Proceeds in Sub Saharan Africa in US$ Billions - FCN Customer Sector Country 2020 (not including fraud and Risks Risks Risks corruption and tax evasion) Customers with elevated Banks (in particular Retail Neighbouring Countries exposures to: and Correspondent in particular Ghana & Banks) Guinea (Smuggling) Mali (Terrorism AQIM / AD) Mining Fishing Criminal activities such as: Other FI’s such as Bureau 10 2.5 Illegal Logging & Mining, de-Change, MSB’s MMO’s Wildlife Goods Piracy Lebanon (Terrorism 2 Human & Arms Trafficking, 9 DNFBP’s including Finance - via support for Wildlife Crime & Drug precious metals and Hezbollah) Trafficking, & Smuggling stones dealers Logging along with Corruption (e.g Major Export / Import 12.5 PEP’s) which also helps Informal Sectors Partner Countries (Trade Modern Slavery Mispricing and IFF’s - 8.3 facilitate these crimes & particularly mining and Tax Evasion as a high risk extraction sectors) Drugs concern also. 3 Theft Latin America (drugs) & 15 SE Asia (wildlife) to Higher Risk Sectors and/or Geography Risks FCN SSA Country Risk Rating by FCN - “Mod” Threats by FCN - " GTI GSI INCSR TI CPI US TIP WEF OC GFI IFF’s Overall US Terror IUUF Index OC Index US END Wildlife FCN SSA Country Risk Rating by FCN - “Low - Mod” Response - " GSI PPI Gov Free Basel OCI NRA FATF 40 FATF 11 Overall Seizures US$ FATF/EU Lists Ivory Coast - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 3 of 31 Section 3 - Country Information People & Geography: The Ivory Coast is bauxite, copper, gold, nickel, tantalum, silica home to almost 27.5 million people (estimated sand, clay, coffee & palm oil. 2020), with most of its inhabitants living along the coastal region and in the economic capital, Cocoa: The Ivory Coast is the worlds leading Abidjan, with the interior sparsely populated. supplier of cocoa, with cocoa accounting for The Ivory Coast landmass is mostly used for 40% of total exports and 10% of GDP or Agriculture and forestry, though whilst fresh US$4.3 billion. There are estimated to be cover a decade ago was at 30% most of the 600,000 farmers (paid approx 54 cents a day) - Country’s forests, have been cleared through and about 6 million people working in the deforestation. Water pollution from sewage, cocoa industry, with child labour extensive - and from industrial, mining, and agricultural with around 6.6% of final retail price of effluents is also a concern. The Ivory Coast has chocolate going to growers. 515 km of coastline, and an exclusive economic fishing zone of 200 nautical miles Gold & Diamonds: Gold production reached into the Atlantic Ocean. 23,5 tons in 2015, valued at US$857 million. Illegal Mining is widespread, particularly in the Recent History & Leadership: The Ivory Coast regions of Bounkani and Gontougo, with many achieved its independence from France in farmers turning from cocoa to illegal mining. 1960, but retains close ties, with French the Diamond production generated approx US$5 official language. In December 1999, a military million in exports in 2016. coup overthrew the government, with Laurent Gbagbo in time coming into power. A failed Fishing: Represents 0.8% GDP or US$388 coup attempt in 2002 developed into a civil million, with 3 local tuna processing plants war, which by 2003, resulted in the country exporting canned tuna. Other popular catches being divided between the north and the include sardines and shrimp. south, and peacekeeping forces in between. In 2007, an agreement to reunite the country was Forestry: Ivory Coast produced in 2015 about made and after delays, Alassane Ouattara won 2.5 million m3 of logs, which was primarily new presidential elections and with the help of used in the domestic industry. Exports were UN and French forces came to power. Outtara valued at US$218.4 million in 2015 (0.5% won a second term in 2015. The UN GDP). peacekeeping mission departed in June 2017. Gbagbo was in The Hague on trial for crimes Environment: According to the Environmental against humanity, but was acquitted in 2019. Protection Index 20181. The Ivory Coast is Next Presidential elections are scheduled for scored 43.41/100 & ranked149/180. November 2020. Outtara announced he will not stand. Finance: The Ivory Coast financial profile2 includes the following (people aged over 15); Economy & Trade:The Country is known for 15% have Bank account’s, 1.3% have a credit cocoa production, but has other natural card, 34% have a mobile money account, 7.1% resources including petroleum, natural gas, make online payments, Internet penetration is diamonds, manganese, iron ore, cobalt, at 47% via 12 million internet users 34 million mobile connections or 131%. Ivory Coast - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 4 of 31 Section 4 - Country Ratings & Country Threats Heat Map Source Ivory Coast � Source Ivory Coast � Source Ivory Coast � World Economic Forum 51.3 / 100 Transparency International (TI) 35 / 100 Proliferation Index - PPI Tier 3 Organised Crime Index* Corruption Perceptions Index* Threat Lowest Threat Level OC Index “High” Criminality TI & Afrobarometer 34% Proliferation Index - PPI 360 / 1300 Criminality* 6.23 Citizens Views and Experiences of Corruption Controls* Low Controls score Report OC Index 6.5/10 TRACE No Rating Global Terrorism Index “Low” Impact Criminal Actors Bribery Risk Matrix GTI - Impact* 2.598 OC Index 8/10 Global Slavery Index 5.9/1,000 US Dept of State No State Embedded Actors GSI Incidence* Incidence Country Reports on Terrorism* OC Index 7.5/10 Global Slavery Index 137,000 Global Cybersecurity Index 3.276/10 Criminal Networks No of estimated Modern Day Slaves Total numbers 2018 (63/175) OC Index 7.5/10 Global Slavery Index “B” Rating Mo Ibrahim Governance Index 54.5/100 Foreign Actors Country Response Rating* (49.9