El Centro
Economic Development Strategy
FINAL REPORT
Prepared by WAHLSTROM & ASSOCIATES
November 2011
El Centro Economic Development Strategy i November 2011
TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... v 1. EL CENTRO AND THE REGIONAL ECONOMY ...... 1 ! 1.1 Employment Trends ...... 2! 1.2 Built Space Estimates ...... 4! 1.3 Employment Growth Projections ...... 6
1.4 Projected Demand for Built Space and Land, 2010–2015 ...... 8 2. COMMERCIAL RETAIL BASELINE INFORMATION ...... 10! 2.1 Taxable Sales Trends ...... 10! 2.2. Demographic and Income Trends ...... 11! 2.3 Spending Leakages ...... 12 3. LAND SUPPLY AND DEMAND ...... 14! 3.1 Demand and Supply of General Commercial Space ...... 14! 3.2 Supply and Demand for Industrial Space ...... 15 4. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITY AREAS ...... 17! 4.1 Imperial Avenue Corridor ...... 20! 4.2 Center City District ...... 24! 4.3 Industrial Areas ...... 27! 4.4 New Shopping Areas along South Dogwood Avenue ...... 30 5. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ELEMENT ...... 32! 5.1 Background ...... 32! 5.2 Economic Development Goals, Policies and Actions ...... 33! 5.3 Goals, Policies, and Actions for Targeted Opportunity Areas . 45! APPENDIX A: TABLES ...... 54 APPENDIX B: REPORT CONTRIBUTORS ...... 71!
El Centro Economic Development Strategy ii November 2011
LIST OF FIGURES
1. Estimates of Built Space in El Centro by Land Use Categories, 2007 ...... 5! 2. Job Growth Projections by Industry Sector in El Centro, 2010–2025 ...... 6! 3. Projections of New Jobs by Industry Sector in Imperial County, 2010–2025 ...... 8! 4. Projected Demand for New Built Space in El Centro, 2010–2025 ...... 9! 5. Average Household Income Trends in California, Imperial County, and El Centro: 1990–2000 and 2000–2009 ...... 11! 6. El Centro’s Capture of Regional Sales, 2009 ...... 12! 7. Supply and Demand for General Commercial Space ...... 15! 8. Supply and Demand for Industrial Space ...... 16! 9. Economic Development Opportunity Areas Sorted by Geographic Subareas ...... 18! 10. El Centro’s Key Economic Development Opportunity Areas ...... 19! 11. Imperial Avenue Corridor: Opportunity Area Characteristics and Challenges ...... 21! 12. Center City District: Opportunity Area Characteristics and Challenges ...... 25! 13. Industrial Areas: Opportunity Area Characteristics and Constraints ...... 28! 14. New Shopping Areas Along South Dogwood Road: Economic Development Goals and Site Characteristics ...... 30! 15. Economic Development Goals, Policies, and Actions ...... 34! 16. Opportunity Area Goals and Policies ...... 46!
El Centro Economic Development Strategy iii November 2011
LIST OF APPENDIX TABLES
A-1 California Employment Trends, 1998–2010
A-2 Five-County Region Employment Trends, 1998–2010
A-3 Imperial County Employment Trends, 1998–2010
A-4 El Centro Employment Trends, 1998–2010
A-5 Summary of Built Commercial Space in El Centro’s Commercial Areas, 2010
A-6 Estimates of Built Business Space by Land Use Categories in El Centro, 2010
A-7 El Centro Employment Projections, 2010–2025
A-8 California Employment Projections, 2010–2025
A-9 Five-County Region Employment Projections, 2010–2025
A-10 Imperial County Employment Projections, 2010–2025
A-11 Land Demand and Built Space Projections in El Centro, 2010–2025
A-12 Taxable Sales Trends in El Centro and Neighboring Jurisdictions, 2000–2008
A-13 Population Growth Trends in El Centro and the Region, 1990–2009
A-14 Average Real Household Income Trends in El Centro and the Region, 1990–2009
A-15 El Centro’s Retail Spending Leakages and Capture of Regional Sales, 2010
A-16 El Centro Household Expenditure Estimates, 2010
A-17 Economic Development Potential within El Centro’s Opportunity Areas, 2010
A-18 Occupied Commercial Space and Sales Earned by Business Establishments within El Centro’s Commercial Districts, 2010
El Centro Economic Development Strategy v November 2011
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report documents more than one year of work to prepare an economic development strategy and to update of El Centro’s 2004 Economic Development Element. The data incorporated into this report describes the demographic and economic trends in El Centro and the surrounding region, and projects future growth. An inventory of El Centro’s built commercial retail space, occupancy rates, and a retail leakage analysis is significant new information that was previously absent. Sixteen opportunity areas are identified as locations to focus specific economic development initiatives.
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
Some key analytical findings described in the report are summarized below:
. Employment growth in Imperial County and El Centro was very strong prior to the 2008 financial crises.
. The area experienced fewer job losses than the region or State since 2008.
. Incomes dramatically declined by $16,100 per household during the past decade, which lowers the quality of life and reduces the available consumer spending.
. El Centro has positioned itself as Imperial County’s regional shopping destination that captures half of all retail sales within Imperial County.
. El Centro retailers depend on spending by residents of Mexicali and the surrounding Imperial Valley communities for up to 80 percent of their sales.
. El Centro should anticipate the need to accommodate 17,000 new jobs by 2025, with most new job in the service sectors. The growth projections assume that the U.S. economy will ultimately rebound from the current malaise.
. El Centro should anticipate a need to develop 4 million square feet of new office and business park space by 2025.
. Less than 500,000 square feet of industrial and warehouse space will be needed.
El Centro Economic Development Strategy vi November 2011
. Only 1.1 million square feet of commercial retail space will be needed. The demand for new retail space will be softened by the need to absorb 660,000 square feet of vacant space.
. El Centro has a significant oversupply of commercial retail and industrial space, and an undersupply of office and business park space. The out-of-balance demand for and supply of land presents a challenge to adjust to a changing economy.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT GOALS
Economic development goals that apply to the entire City and to specific opportunity areas are summarized below: . Attract employers that pay higher wages in order to reverse the decline of household incomes; . Encourage entrepreneurship as a strategy to combat high rates of unemployment; . Encourage sustainable development practices that will help El Centro comply with California’s greenhouse gas reduction requirements; . Create more shovel ready industrial and business park sites that can attract new business prospects; . Continue to attract shoppers from Mexicali and neighboring communities to strengthen El Centro’s position as a regional shopping destination; . Improve community amenities that make El Centro a better place to live and visit; . Transform Downtown El Centro into a mixed-use neighborhood that attracts people to live, work, and play; . Reduce the inventory of vacant commercial space, which is highly visible and concentrated along Imperial Avenue; . Encourage more intensive development at underutilized shopping center sites; . Upgrade the appearance and maintenance of abandoned and underutilized commercial properties until they are revitalized; . Convert a portion of industrial land into business park or general commercial uses; and . Complete the development of the Imperial Valley Commons site.
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REPORT CONTENTS
Below is a brief explanation of each section of the report.
Section 1 Describes the economy of El Centro and the surrounding region. The information in this section describes past employment trends, current estimates and the projected demand for built space and land.
Section 2 Describes El Centro’s commercial retail sector, which generates a significant amount of tax receipts that can help fund improvements. This section includes information about the demographic and income trends that affect consumer spending, and the spending leakages available to be captured.
Section 3 Compares El Centro’s inventory of available commercial and industrial land with the anticipated demand for land and built space. The information in this section yields valuable insight about El Centro’s current land use policies, and changes that may be required to accommodate market forces.
Section 4 Identifies sixteen opportunity areas that should be the focus of the City’s economic development initiatives. This section describes the economic development constraints and/or challenges for each opportunity area along with its physical setting.
Section 5 The 12 goals, 31 policies and implementation action steps articulate an economic development strategy that will replace the 2004 General Plan Economic Development Element. This section also describes economic development initiatives that the City should pursue.
Appendix The appendix includes 18 tables of data and background information that helps formulate the economic development element.
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El Centro Economic Development Strategy November 2011 1
El Centro’s high rates of unemployment and poverty
are national news.
1 EL CENTRO AND THE
REGIONAL ECONOMY
he most recent statistics state that El Centro’s unemployment rate was 29.3 percent, and more than 1,800 families are living in poverty with a 20.6 percent poverty rate compared T to a 9.2 percent national poverty rate. Of course, the news media usually leave out the fact that El Centro’s high rates of unemployment and poverty are directly related to the City’s location near Mexicali, with more than one million residents and family members living on both sides of the border. The large movement of people across the border makes it possible for people to work in Imperial County but live in Mexicali, which distorts the unemployment and poverty data.
In fact, El Centro retains its high rates of unemployment and poverty despite the City’s considerable success at expanding the job base and strengthening the commercial retail sector. During the mid-2000s, El Centro became the Imperial Valley’s employment center and a regional mall and other new shopping centers were developed to attract customers from throughout the Imperial Valley and Mexicali.
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1.1 EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
El Centro and Imperial County have a very successful track record of creating new jobs when compared to the region and the State. Past trends in the city, region, and State are described below.
California’s Employment Trends California’s private employers created 1.22 million new jobs between 1998 and 2007. Nearly 400,000 manufacturing jobs were lost during that period, which were counter-balanced by a gain of 1.36 million service sector jobs.1
California’s job growth was halted by the 2008 financial crises. Since that time, the US economy lost 8 million jobs and California lost nearly 670,000 jobs. Approximately 55 percent of the new jobs created in California between 1998 and 2007 disappeared between 2008 and 2010.
Regional Employment Trends Nearly 645,000 new jobs were created within the five-county Southern California region between 1998 and 2007.2 The pace of the region’s job creation expanded at a 1.3 percent annual growth rate, which was a faster pace than California’s 1.1 percent annual growth rate.3
However, since 2008 Southern California lost 340,000 jobs, which accounts for more than half of California’s job losses. The job losses have affected all sectors of the economy, including the loss of more than 140,000 construction and manufacturing jobs, and nearly 200,000 service sector jobs.
Imperial County Employment Trends Imperial County’s economy generates 27,000 private sector jobs; and 19,000 federal, state, and local government jobs. The presence of military bases, state prisons, and various homeland security operations contributes to Imperial County’s unusually high percentage of government jobs.4
1 See Appendix Table A-1 for California employment trends data. 2 The Southern California region includes the five counties of Los Angeles, San Diego, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Imperial. Orange and Ventura Counties are not included in this data set. 3 See Appendix Table A-2 for Southern California employment growth trends. 4 See Appendix Table A-3 for Imperial County employment growth trends.
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Approximately 11,700 new jobs were created in Imperial County between 1998 and 2007. The area’s relatively low land and labor costs, proximity to Mexico, and the significant federal and state investments in the region provided a foundation for strong private sector growth, which added 8,000 new jobs. Private sector jobs in Imperial County expanded at a 3.8 percent annual growth rate, which was triple Southern California’s 1.3 percent annual growth rate during the same period.
However, since 2008 Imperial County lost nearly 800 private sector jobs that cut across all sectors of the economy. The construction sector lost 430 jobs, wholesale and retail trade lost 510 jobs, financial activities lost 160 jobs, professional and business services lost 140 jobs, and leisure and the hospitality sector lost 80 jobs. Imperial County’s private sector jobs were lost at a 1.0 percent annual rate between 2008 and 2010, which was less severe than the 2.0 percent annual rate of job losses in Southern California. The recession’s impact in Imperial County was softened by some growth in public sector employment fueled by the continued expansion of homeland security and immigration enforcement operations along the border.
El Centro’s Employment Trends Approximately 25,900 jobs are located in El Centro as of 2010, including 13,300 private sector jobs and 12,600 jobs with federal, state, and local governments. El Centro is the County Seat, which makes the City a logical location for State agencies as well as Federal Homeland Security, Border Patrol, and immigration operations.5 The composition of El Centro’s economy is described below:
. Retail trade generates 3,330 jobs, or 25 percent of El Centro’s private sector jobs
. Professional and business services generate 1,760 jobs
. Health care services generates 1,660 jobs
. Leisure and hospitality generates 1,550 jobs
Approximately 3,800 private sector jobs were added to El Centro’s economy between 1998 and 2007. The largest employment gains were in retail trade (790 jobs), professional and business services (670 jobs), construction (610 jobs), and financial activities (520 jobs). El Centro’s growth rates among construction, financial activities, and the distribution industries nearly tripled Imperial County’s growth rates in these industry sectors.
5 See Appendix Table A-4 for El Centro employment growth trends.
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However, El Centro lost nearly 500 private sector jobs, 62 percent of Imperial County’s private sector job losses since 2008.6 The largest job losses were in construction (-240 jobs), retail trade (-180 jobs), and professional and business services (-100 jobs). The same industries were also the largest growth sectors during the 1998 to 2007 expansion.
1.2 BUILT SPACE ESTIMATES
El Centro’s daytime workforce occupies approximately 9.9 million square feet of commercial and industrial space built on 920 acres of land. Nearly 95 percent of the City’s built business space consists of retail shopping, office, and business park buildings as described below (See Figure 1).
Retail Centers, Strip Malls, and Downtown Commercial Space Approximately 4.2 million square feet of retail commercial space was built on 380 acres of land.7 Retail, personal service, and food service establishments generate 5,470 jobs that occupy 3.5 million square feet of built space, Approximately 665,000 square feet of the built retail space is vacant and available to be absorbed or redeveloped.
Office and Business Park Space Government agencies and private business establishments employ 16,120 daytime workers within 5.26 million square feet of office and business park space.8 Essentially, El Centro has more office and business park space than it does built commercial space.
Industrial Space El Centro ‘s manufacturing, distribution, and construction firms employ 670 workers within 302,000 square feet of occupied industrial space. The built industrial space accounts for only 3 percent of El Centro’s business space and job base. The lack of shovel-ready sites with easy access to water and sewer infrastructure services places El Centro at a competitive disadvantage to attract new business. Calexico can offer new business prospects hundreds of acres of available industrial land with water and sewer services.
6 El Centro lost 490 private sector jobs and Imperial County lost 790 jobs between 2008 and 2010. 7 See Appendix Table A-5 for detailed information on built commercial retail space. Estimates of land absorbed assumed floor area ratios (FARs) that ranged between .25 and .35 depending on location and the type of space. 8 The supply of vacant office and business park space is unknown and not included in the built space estimates.
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FIGURE 1 Estimates of Built Space in El Centro by Land Use Categories, 2007
TOTAL
9.9 Million SF
Source: California Employment Development Department, US County Business Patterns and City of El Centro. Southern California Association of Governments Employment Density Study, 2001. Analysis: Wahlstrom & Associates. Note: See Appendix Table A-6 for detailed data.
Warehouse Space El Centro’s manufacturing and distribution firms employ 420 workers within 336,000 square feet of warehouse space. The small inventory of warehouse and distribution space is due to weak demand, as users prefer distribution space that is nearer to the international border.
Other Business Land Uses Approximately 2,210 workers are employed in an array of land uses such as motels, institutions, transportation centers, utility complexes, recreational facilities, schools, hospitals, churches, and others. Some business tenants need specialized buildings that are not well suited for shopping center or business park locations.
Self-Employed Approximately 530 self-employed El Centro residents are working from home and are not in the market to rent or purchase commercial space.
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1.3 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH PROJECTIONS
El Centro should anticipate 11,900 new jobs to be created during the next 15 years (See Figure 2) assuming that the national economy rebounds from its current malaise.9The mix of new private sector jobs that El Centro should anticipate is summarized below:
. 1,750 retail jobs
. 1,360 health services jobs
. 1,300 new manufacturing and distribution jobs
. 820 new professional and business service jobs
. 230 new construction jobs
FIGURE 2 Job Growth Projections by Industry Sector in El Centro, 2010–2025
Total New Jobs
11,900
Source: California Employment Development Department and Wahlstrom & Associates. Note: See Appendix Table A-7 for detailed data.
9 Employment growth projections included in this report rely on the accuracy of the growth projections published by the California Employment Development Department, which projects the California economy to rebound.
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Facts and Assumptions Behind the Employment Projections The projections of demand for land and built space are based on the local employment projections that are translated into land-use demand. The employment projections are not predictions. Instead, the projections utilize credible national and state econometric forecasting models of employment forecasts for the State and the Southern California region. Local employment growth forecasts combine the new jobs to be created from internal business expansion and business attraction efforts. The assumptions described below:
. The California Employment Development Department (EDD) forecasts of nearly 5 million new jobs to be created in the State through 2025 are reasonably accurate;10 fewer jobs will be created in El Centro if the California employment forecasts prove to be optimistic.
. Nearly 2.1 million new jobs will be created in Southern California through 2025 as the region’s economy continues to expand at a slightly faster pace than California’s economy.11 Fewer jobs will be created in the region if the California employment forecasts prove to be optimistic.
. El Centro can anticipate fewer jobs if California’s job growth shifts to other regions of the State.
. More than 20,000 new jobs will be created in Imperial County through 2025, assuming that Imperial County’s rate of job creation will continue at a slightly faster pace than the pace of Southern California’s job creation (See Figure 3).
. El Centro will continue to capture about half of the new private sector jobs created in Imperial County, and about 80 percent of the new government jobs. Changes in governmental fiscal conditions could alter El Centro’s growth trends and projections.
. Finally, the employment growth projections assume no major changes in international relations with Mexico that might affect cross-border shopping and bi-national trade. A crackdown in the number of Mexicali residents allowed to cross the border would affect El Centro’s potential to expand its retail sector. A reduction of international trade with Mexico would slow down the volume of goods that cross the Mexican border and affect the demand of distribution space and commercial services in El Centro.
10 See Table A-8 for California employment projections. 11 See Table A-9 for Southern California employment projections.
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FIGURE 3 Projections of New Jobs by Industry Sector in Imperial County, 2010–2025
Total New Jobs 21,380
Source: California Employment Development Department and Wahlstrom & Associates. Note: See Appendix Table A-10 for detailed data.
1.4 PROJECTED DEMAND FOR BUILT SPACE AND LAND, 2010–2025
El Centro should plan to accommodate 11,900 new jobs through 2025, which will require the development of three million square feet of new business space on 282 acres of land. The type of business space needed is summarized in Figure 4, and described below:
. Approximately 2.1 million square feet of office and business park space will be needed for government agencies, health care facilities, and service establishments.
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FIGURE 4 Projected Demand for New Built Space in El Centro, 2010–2025 (square feet)
Source: Wahlstrom & Associates. Note: See Appendix Table A-11 for detailed data.
. Approximately 157,000 square feet of new industrial space and 240,000 square feet of new warehouse space will be needed during the next 15 years. Essentially, the City should plan another industrial park similar in size to the Centerpoint Business Park.
. Only 450,000 square feet of new retail space will be needed assuming that retail can be attracted back into the 660,000 square feet of vacant space. The projected growth will support the development of a new small shopping center.
. Another large shopping center can be supported only if the current vacant space remains unoccupied in favor of new development on greenfield sites.
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El Centro Economic Development Strategy November 2011 10
El Centro has become a regional shopping destination with the majority of sales attracted from residents of
Mexicali and the neighboring Imperial County 2 COMMERCIAL RETAIL communities BASELINE INFORMATION
he factors that affect demand for retail services, and the conditions that will support the future expansion of El Centro’s Tretail services are described below. 2.1 TAXABLE SALES TRENDS
El Centro has historically been Imperial County’s dominant retail destination. The development of the Imperial Valley Mall, the Plaza at Imperial Valley, the Wal-Mart Supercenter, Target, and Lowe’s expanded El Centro’s importance as a regional retail destination. Only one quarter of Imperial County population lives in El Centro, but the City’s retailers capture half of the County’s retail sales.
The successful efforts to attract the new retail businesses and shopping centers also softened the impacts of the financial crises on El Centro’s tax base. The City’s taxable sales receipts declined by only 4.2 percent between 2006 and 2008, compared to a 5.2 percent decline in Imperial County and a 4.9 percent decline throughout California.12
12 See Appendix Table A-12 for detailed taxable sales data.
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2.2. DEMOGRAPHIC AND INCOME TRENDS
Population Growth Trends Approximately 25 percent of Imperial County’s residents live in El Centro (44,300 people). However, El Centro’s population, growth has proceeded at a relatively slow 1.8 percent annual growth rates, compared to Imperial County’s 2.6 percent growth rates between 2000 and 2009.13
Household Income Trends El Centro’s average household income in 2009 was only $40,200, which is half of California’s $80,100 average household income (See Figure 5). In addition, real household incomes in El Centro actually declined by $16,100 between 2000 and 2009, which exacerbates the long-term problem of low wages and a lack of household wealth. The low and declining incomes translate into a significant loss of household capacity to spend and purchase retail products.
FIGURE 5 Average Household Income Trends in California, Imperial County, and El Centro: 1990–2000 and 2000–2009
Source: US Census, Demographics Now, Claritas, US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Numbers are adjusted for inflation and measured in $2009 (millions). Analysis: Wahlstrom & Associates. Note: See Appendix Table A-14 for detailed data.
13 See Appendix Table A-13 for State, local and regional population trends data.
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This phenomenon of El Centro’s declining incomes is caused by a combination of factors that includes national trends, a shift toward more low paying retail and personal service jobs, employer’s efforts to reduce business costs, and other demographic factors. The decline of household income and wealth in El Centro has certainly accelerated since 2008.
2.3 SPENDING LEAKAGES
The development of the covered Imperial Valley Mall and the Plaza at Imperial Valley provided El Centro with a full range of commercial services that virtually eliminated retail spending leakages and helped strengthen the City’s position to attract more than $500 million of regional spending each year (Figure 6). Any new retail stores, shopping centers, and commercial pads developed in El Centro will need to attract retailers that compete for the regional spending. Key findings about the spending leakages are summarized below:
. El Centro households spend $150 million on consumer products and personal services;
. The retail business establishments in El Centro earn $680 million of sales, including $549 million of taxable sales;
. This means that El Centro’s retailers capture $522 million of spending from Mexicali’s cross-border shoppers and long distance travelers who stop at the new shopping centers developed along the Interstate 8 interchange; and
FIGURE 6 El Centro’s Capture of Regional Sales, 2009
El Centro Household Sales Captured From Store Category Spending Leakages Regional Capture Spending Households Apparel $11,700,000 $111,300,000 $0 $99,600,000 General Merchandise $42,200,000 $271,700,000 $0 $229,500,000 Specialty Stores $12,000,000 $34,700,000 $0 $22,700,000 Food Stores and Restaurants $67,200,000 $164,300,000 $0 $97,100,000 Home Furnishings $11,600,000 $24,100,000 $0 $12,500,000 Building Materials $4,100,000 $62,600,000 $0 $58,500,000 Auto Parts and Accessories $1,500,000 $11,800,000 $0 $10,300,000 TOTAL $150,300,000 $680,500,000 $0 $530,200,000
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Household Spending Surveys, US Census of Retail Trade. Analysis: Wahlstrom & Associates. Note: See Appendix Table A-15 for detailed data.
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. Spending by consumers who do not live in El Centro accounts for 80 percent of the City’s taxable retail sales.
It is also important to note that the average El Centro household spends $12,200 per year on consumer products and personal services, entertainment, food, and personal services, which amounts to 30 percent of the household income earned.14 The remainder of household income is spent on housing, transportation, insurance, taxes, private education, and health care services, and these spending categories are not available to retail establishments.
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14 See Table A-16 for consumer spending by category information.
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El Centro would benefit from an inventory of available commercial and industrial land that more closely matches the market demand for land and 3 Land Supply and business space Demand
omparing the existing land use designations with the estimates of projected growth can provide valuable insight about current land use policies, and the changes that may be required to C accommodate market forces.
3.1 DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF GENERAL COMMERCIAL SPACE
El Centro has 5.3 million square feet of office and business park space scattered throughout the City.15 A large portion of the office space is in the downtown corridor that is occupied by government agencies and professional service establishments. New office space has also been built in the Valley Plaza Center and elsewhere along Imperial Avenue, much of which is occupied by Federal border security operations.
Figure 7 describes the mismatch between the market demand and inventory of available space and undeveloped commercial land. Land demand projections indicate a demand for 1.1 million square feet of new retail space during the next 15 years, and 2.1 million square feet of new office and business park space (See Appendix Table A-11). However, and oversupply of retail space indicates that El Centro should convert
15 See Appendix Table A-6 for detailed built space estimates for all land uses.
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FIGURE 7 Supply and Demand for General Commercial Space
Project Demand for Commercial Square Foot Acres Demand Retail Land (2010–2025) Demand Demand for Retail Centers, Strip Malls, and Downtown Retail Space 102 1,110,000 Demand for Office and Business Park Space 200 2,101,000 Supportable Commercial Retail Land Supply Land Inventory Space Vacant Retail Space 62 665,000 Undeveloped Commercial Retail Land 155 1,687,000 Vacant Space and Undeveloped Commercial Land 217 2,352,000
Source: Wahlstrom & Associates. See Appendix Table A-17 for detailed information on vacant land. See Appendix Table A-11 for detailed information on the demand for retail, office, and business park space.
some vacant shopping centers into office and business park centers. In addition, new office and business park space may need to be developed on land intended for retail shopping.
The City has 665,000 square feet of vacant commercial retail space that needs to be reused. Another 155 acres of undeveloped land is zoned and available for general commercial uses, which can support 1.69 million square feet of new space.16 This means that El Centro has enough vacant commercial space and undeveloped land to absorb 2.35 million square feet of new commercial growth when undeveloped land and vacant space is combined.17
3.2 SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR INDUSTRIAL SPACE
Figure 8 indicates an extreme imbalance between the inventory of industrial land and the demand for new industrial space.18 El Centro has 159 acres of undeveloped industrial land that could support more than 1.7 million square feet of new space for the fabricated manufacturing, assembly, or processing of materials. Thus, the supply of vacant industrial land is seven times the current amount of built industrial space (302,000 square feet). The projected growth rates indicate that El Centro has a 65-year inventory of undeveloped industrially zoned land. Only 14 acres of industrial land may be absorbed during the next 15 years, may leave a large inventory of undeveloped industrial land for many decades.
16 See 2004 General Plan Land Use Element allows for retail, services, administrative offices, light manufacturing, and other related uses under the general commercial land use designation 17 See Appendix Table A-17 for detailed information on vacant land and space within 16 opportunity areas. 18 See Appendix Table A-17 for information of vacant industrial sites.
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FIGURE 8 Supply and Demand for Industrial Space
Projected Demand for Acres Square Foot Industrial Land Demand Demand (2010–2025)
Light Industrial Space 14 157,000
Warehouse Space 22 240,000
Industrial Land Supply Land Inventory Supportable Space Undeveloped Industrial Land 159 1,730,000
Source: Wahlstrom & Associates. See Appendix Table A-17 for detailed information on vacant land. See Appendix Table A-11 for detailed information on the demand for industrial and warehouse space.
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Business attraction and retention efforts should focus on sixteen opportunity areas
4 Economic Development Opportunity Areas
he City’s business attraction and retention efforts should be focused on more intensive development or redevelopment of T sixteen economic development opportunity areas to: . Capitalize on the City’s assets, including its strategic southern California location near Mexicali, and its relative affordability for both business and residential uses;
. Preserve and attract businesses that provide jobs for El Centro residents,
. Enable the City to compete effectively for new business and job growth;
. Help ensure a healthy jobs/housing balance; and
. Encourage the City’s long-term economic sustainability.
The 16 opportunity areas fit within four geographic groupings— Imperial Avenue Corridor, Center City Area, Dogwood Avenue Commercial Area, and Industrial Areas (See Figure 9). The location of each opportunity area can be found in the map on the following page (See Figure 10). The narrative below describes the constraints to attracting jobs and revitalizing the opportunity areas within each geographic grouping.
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FIGURE 9 Economic Development Opportunity Areas Sorted by Geographic Subareas
Imperial Avenue Dogwood Avenue Center City Area Industrial Areas Corridor Commercial Area
Area 1 Area 7 Area 9 Area 12
Valley Plaza Shopping Adams Avenue Plaza @ Imperial 8th Street Industrial Park Center Corridor Valley Subdivision
Area 2 Area 8 Area 10 Area 14
Former Heilig Main Street Corridor Imperial Valley Mall Danenberg Meyers Center (Downtown) and Surrounding Pads Industrial Area
Area 3 Area 13 Area 11 Industrial Area South of El Centro Bowling Alley Highway 86 Imperial Valley Industrial Park Site Railroad Properties Commons
Area 4 Area 16
Valley Centerpoint Abatti Property South of Plaza (Former El Centerpoint Business Centro Shopping Park Center)
Area 5
Former Wal-Mart Store
Area 6
El Centro Town Center Phase II
[This space intentionally left blank]
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FIGURE 10 El Centro’s Key Economic Development Opportunity Areas
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4.1 IMPERIAL AVENUE CORRIDOR
The Imperial Avenue corridor includes 1.95 million square feet of built commercial space that extends for three miles from Main Street to the Imperial City Limits. The corridor emerged as Imperial County’s primary shopping destination in the early 1980s when big-box retail first emerged. Wal-Mart, Kmart, Costco, and Sam’s Club became magnets for Imperial County and Mexicali shoppers. However, a number of retail establishments along the corridor became stale as time passed, and the region’s retail synergy shifted to the South Dogwood Road shopping malls. This shift has left the corridor with vacant big-box stores and shopping centers that are challenging to reuse and redevelop. Figure 11 describes the challenges to attract more intensive development and/or revitalize six opportunity areas along the corridor.
4.1.1 AREA 1: VALLEY PLAZA SHOPPING CENTER
El Centro’s first shopping center has approximately 130,000 square feet of built commercial space that is transitioning into a mix of commercial retail, food service, and office uses. However, recent store closures have left the site with only 30,000 square feet of occupied retail space, and the commercial retail tenants earn only $10 million of sales. Essentially, the Valley Plaza is no longer a viable shopping center, as the consumer spending synergy has shifted to other commercial districts and shopping centers.
Challenges The combination of extremely poor retail sales earnings with a 58 percent commercial vacancy rate makes it very difficult to revitalize Valley Plaza as a retail-shopping destination. The area should be transitioned into a mix of commercial retail, food service, and office uses.
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FIGURE 11 Imperial Avenue Corridor: Opportunity Area Characteristics and Challenges
Area 1 Area 2 Area 3 Area 5 Area 6 Area 4 Valley Plaza Former Heilig Bowling Alley Former Wal-Mart El Centro Town Valley Centerpoint Plaza Shopping Center Meyers Center Site Store Center Phase II
Strategically located site 18-acre site with 119,000 SF 6-Acre site vacant land site 17-acre site partially adjacent to the Target and El Centro’s first shopping of vacant space formerly adjacent to the Brunswick occupied by Imagine Lowe’s includes 30-acres of center that is transitioning 90,000 SF of built space formerly occupied by Wal-Mart— Zone Bowling alley that Charter School undeveloped commercially into a mix of commercial occupied by Heilig Meyers approximately 14-acres could support another 9,000 zoned land and 18-acres of retail and office uses surrounding the building is SF of new space undeveloped industrially reserved for parking Area zoned land Characteristics 14-acre site with 132,000 Build out of the undeveloped Nearly 120,000 SF of SF of built commercial Site includes 40,000 SF of vacant land will require water and Highly visible site along former shopping center space that includes 77,000 space and acres of asphalt sewer infrastructure Imperial Avenue with space remains vacant SF of vacant space and adjacent to Imperial Avenue that improvements, storm significant traffic flows along with acres of land acres of underutilized are dedicated for parking drainage and internal dedicated for parking parking roadways
58% vacancy rate makes it Market demand for new Market demand for new Market demand for new retail Market demand for new difficult to reverse this Market demand for new retail retail shopping is saturated retail shopping is shopping is saturated at this retail shopping is saturated area’s decline as a retail shopping is saturated at this time at this time saturated at this time time at this time location Market demand for industrial The site remains visibly The site is visibly blighted is weak and the site faces The site is visibly blighted which blighted despite the which projects an image of abundant competition Challenges projects an image of neglect presence of the Imagine neglect elsewhere in El Centro and School the region New uses attracted to Location within the Airport the site should be flight zone imposes compatible with the constraints on uses and school, which is the new densities anchor tenant
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4.1.2 AREA 2: FORMER HEILIG MEYERS CENTER
The 90,000 square foot former Heilig Meyers furniture store site has been partially reoccupied by the Fallas Paredes clothing store and the Rosita China Buffet, located at the south end of the center. Approximately 40,000 square feet remain vacant along with acres of underutilized parking in front of the buildings and visible to Imperial Avenue traffic.
Challenges The market demand for new retail shopping is saturated at this time, which challenges the reuse or redevelopment of the shopping center site. Unused parking and a partially boarded up building project an image that the site is abandoned.
4.1.3 AREA 3: BOWLING ALLEY SITE
This six-acre site was developed with a new Brunswick Zone Bowling Alley that has become a successful recreational facility. Another 9,000 square feet of new commercial space could benefit from the bowling alley traffic and be supported on the vacant site adjacent to the bowling alley.
Challenges The saturated demand for new retail shopping is the primary constraint to developing the vacant site adjacent to the bowling alley.
4.1.4 AREA 4: VALLEY CENTERPOINT PLAZA (FORMER EL CENTRO SHOPPING CENTER)
The Valley Centerpoint Plaza includes 173,000 square feet of built space on a 17-acre site that fronts Imperial Avenue. The closure of Sears and Mervyn’s left the sight blighted, but attracting the IMAGINE charter school to occupy 55,000 square feet of space has partially revitalized the area. The buildings have been painted and are more attractive to other potential users.
Challenges The market demand for new big-box retail is saturated at this time, and nearly 120,000 square feet of space within this former shopping center remains vacant. Approximately 13 acres of land along Imperial Avenue
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is paved for parking, which projects an image of neglect and abandonment. New investment attracted to the site must be compatible with the school, which is the new anchor tenant.
4.1.5 AREA 5: FORMER WAL-MART STORE
The 119,000 square foot former Wal-Mart store was allowed to become vacant and blighted as an aftermath of constructing the new Wal-Mart Supercenter. The building is located on a site surrounded by 15 acres of asphalt parking along Imperial Avenue.
Challenges Vacant big-box stores are difficult to reuse, and the market demand for big-box retail shopping is saturated at this time.
4.1.6 AREA 6: EL CENTRO TOWN CENTER PHASE II
The area includes 34,000 square feet of partially occupied built commercial space, another 30 acres of undeveloped commercially zoned land, and 18 acres of undeveloped industrially zoned land. The undeveloped land can support another 300,000 square feet of new commercial space and nearly 200,000 square feet of new industrial space. The commercial land will be desirable to retail developers due to its strategic location along Imperial Avenue adjacent to Target and Lowe’s; developers prefer undeveloped land sites over the challenges of redeveloping vacant and underutilized shopping center sites.
Challenges The saturation of the retail market will continue to constrain the successful build out of commercial space on this site, which needs water and sewer extension lines as well as drainage and road improvements. Attracting business to the undeveloped industrial land is challenged by lack of infrastructure services, weak demand, and an abundant inventory of competitive sites elsewhere in El Centro, Imperial, and Calexico. This area is also located within the airport flight zone, which restricts commercial uses and constrains densities.
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4.2 CENTER CITY DISTRICT
For nearly 30 years the Main Street corridor (downtown) has been a focus of the City’s revitalization efforts. In the 1970s, El Centro’s destination stores were located downtown and retailers have moved to more viable commercial destinations. Figure 12 identifies three geographically close but distinctly different opportunity areas are located within the Center City district.
4.2.1 AREA 7: ADAMS AVENUE CORRIDOR
The one mile long Adams Avenue corridor is a major transportation route between Brawley and Calexico. The corridor is characterized by older motels and scattered commercial sites within walking distance of Main Street. Numerous undeveloped and underutilized sites can be infilled or redeveloped for higher and better uses.
Challenges The commercial corridor is unattractive and in need of streetscape and urban design improvements. Retail uses are scattered along the corridor, making it difficult to generate consumer synergy. Existing land use patterns makes the area not easily walkable.
4.2.2 AREA 8: DOWNTOWN MAIN STREET CORRIDOR
The City has committed to revitalizing downtown over a long period of time by improving entryways, establishing water features, improving parking options, and implementing streetscape and land use changes suggested by Project SHAPE. A planned new bus transfer terminal will help generate foot traffic and improve the area’s economic viability.
The Main Street corridor is actually a very small commercial district with only 285,000 square feet of built commercial space.19 Retail establishments occupy approximately 150,000 square feet of space downtown, while food and personal service establishments occupy another 70,000 square feet of space.
19 See Table A-5 for detailed information on built space by commercial district.
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FIGURE 12 Center City District: Opportunity Area Characteristics and Challenges
Area 7 Area 8 Area 13
Adams Avenue Corridor Downtown Main Street Corridor Highway 86 Railroad Properties
285,000 square feet of built commercial space, Older industrial and warehouse buildings located on both sides of the Multiple commercial sites between Imperial Avenue Area plus additional office space between 4th and 8th railroad tracks between Commercial Avenue and W. Main Street. and 4th Street that can be infilled or redeveloped for Description Street. Retailers occupy half the built space, and Location within walking distance of downtown commercial services higher and better uses 69,000 square feet of space remains vacant could help attract new real estate investment.
The Main Street corridor has lost its retail Unattractive commercial corridor in need of synergy with few viable established retail Area is built out with buildings that are difficult to reuse streetscape and urban design improvements businesses Large inventory of commercial vacancies makes Retail uses are scattered along the corridor, making it Many properties are owned by Union Pacific, which lacks an incentive it undesirable to attract new retail establishments difficult to generate consumer synergy to redevelop the area to the downtown area Constraints Perception of limited parking makes downtown Area lacks a long term vision to guide redevelopment unattractive to some local residents Many community leaders hang on to the notion of revitalizing downtown as a retail destination, which has constrained ideas about how downtown can be a successful business district and neighborhood.
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The remaining 69,000 square feet of space is vacant, as the recession has hit downtown very hard. The area’s 24 percent vacancy rate is the highest among all of El Centro’s commercial districts. The eighteen vacant storefronts scattered along Main Street, between 4th and 8th Streets range in size from 1,500 to 6,000 square feet—with a 3,800 square foot average vacancy size. The highly visible vacancies convey an image of economic decline that detracts from the area’s continued commercial viability.
The downtown retail establishments earn less that $9 million, which amounts to only 1 percent of the City’s total retail sales.20Essentially, Downtown cannot compete with El Centro’s other commercial areas for retail sales due to the area’s small size and unique physical character.
Constraints Downtown lacks an anchor business to attract customers, and El Centro’s commercial synergy has shifted to other areas of the City. The area’s small size and high vacancy rates make it difficult to expand retail sales. Its physical character has consistently created parking challenges, and the perception of limited parking makes downtown unattractive for some local residents. Most importantly, many community leaders have clung to the notion of revitalizing downtown as a retail destination, which has restricted the thinking and imagination of how downtown can be transformed into successful business district and neighborhood.
4.2.3 AREA 13: HIGHWAY 86 RAILROAD PROPERTIES The Highway 86 railroad properties are located along the same transportation corridor connecting Adams Avenue to 4th Street. The older industrial and warehouse buildings located on both sides of the railroad tracks between Commercial and West Main Streets are within walking distance of downtown commercial services. Significant traffic flow traveling between Calexico and Brawley passes by the blighted buildings each day, which need to be redeveloped or adaptively reused for commercial uses.
Constraints The area lacks a long-term vision to guide redevelopment or reuse. The older industrial and warehouse buildings are owned by Union Pacific, which lacks an incentive to redevelop the area, or to fix or reuse the buildings.
20 See Table A-18 for detailed information on sales earned by commercial district.
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4.3 INDUSTRIAL AREAS
El Centro has 159 acres of vacant industrial land available that can support 1.7 million square feet of new industrial space. However, the undeveloped land lacks the infrastructure and the amenities needed to attract investors to develop shovel ready sites and less than 40 acres of undeveloped land is likely to be needed during the next 15 years. The current absorption rates indicate that El Centro has a 66-year supply of industrial land, but the conditions of the property and the lack of infrastructure services make the sites unattractive to business prospects. The supply and demand imbalance indicates that the City should concentrate its efforts to improve sites and attract business within a relatively small area that can benefit from an efficient use of infrastructure improvement investment.
Four industrially zoned opportunity areas that could be affected by the General Plan update are described in Figure 13. The opportunity areas can be developed for industrial uses, or the City may consider converting a portion of these sites for general commercial or office uses.
4.3.1 AREA 12: 8TH STREET INDUSTRIAL PARK SUBDIVISION
The 49-acre undeveloped land site abuts the railroad tracks. Water and sewer infrastructure services are extended to 8th Street, which abuts the other edge of the site. The site is owned by an affordable housing developer who intends to develop 22 acres for residential uses. The remaining 17 acres is zoned for industrial users.
Constraints The area is isolated from other industrial or commercial business sites, and two rural roads limit access. The potential development of housing in advance of industrial development may create land-use conflicts and constrain the industrial land buildout. In addition, the industrial property must be subdivided with internal roads, and transformed into shovel ready lots with water and sewer lines stubbed to the property’s edge. Weak demand for industrial space is the area’s primary development constraint.
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FIGURE 13 Industrial Areas: Opportunity Area Characteristics and Constraints
Area 12 Area 14 Area 15 Area 16 8th Street Industrial Park Subdivision Danenberg Industrial Site South of El Centro Industrial Park Abatti Property
49-acre undeveloped land site. 17-acres are zoned for industrial, and the remainder of the 27-acres of vacant industrial land 17-acres of vacant land with available water 120-acre area. 80-acres zoned for Area site is zoned for residential. An affordable with adequate water and sewer and sewer services zoned for industrial industrial and 40 acres zoned for Description housing developer owns this site, and housing services stubbed to the property uses residential uses is likely to be developed in advance of edge. potential industrial uses.
Weak demand for new industrial Weak demand for new industrial space Weak demand for new industrial space Weak demand for new industrial space space
Site is located south of the Relatively isolated site with poor roadway Interstate 8 interchange, which Poor visual appearance limits the types of Lack of area amenities make it access that is located away from other may conflict with shopping center potential business tenants that can be challenging to develop mixed uses industrial or commercial businesses traffic to and from the Imperial attracted to the area Valley Mall Constraints
Development of housing may create land use Access is via rural roads that Industrial land is not subdivided or improved conflicts that constrain the industrial land build need improvement into shovel ready industrial lots out
Industrial land is not subdivided Industrial land is not subdivided or improved or improved into shovel-ready into shovel ready industrial lots. industrial lots
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4.3.2 AREA 14: DANENBERG INDUSTRIAL SITE
This 27-acre area of undeveloped industrial land, located south of Interstate 8, is very similar in size and character to Area 12 (the 8th Street industrial Park Subdivision). The site has water and sewer services extended to the property edge.
Constraints In addition to the weak demand for new industrial space, the site’s location south of Interstate 8 presents difficult truck access and potential conflict with retail shopping traffic to and from the Imperial Valley Mall. The access road needs to be improved, and the property still needs to be transformed into shovel ready lots with water and sewer lines stubbed to the property’s edge.
4.3.3 AREA 15: SOUTH OF EL CENTRO INDUSTRIAL PARK
The17-acre undeveloped land area is connected to water and sewer services with good access to the Interstate 8 interchange. Many of the sites that are used for outdoor storage lack landscaping, lighting, sidewalks, gutters, and other amenities.
Constraints The area is not attractive to business seeking improved industrial lots with landscaping, streetlights, and other amenities.
4.3.4 AREA 16: ABATTI PROPERTY
The area offers business prospects a good location near other industrial users and good access to the Interstate 8 interchange. In general, water and sewer services are available, but specific parcels may need line extensions before they can be developed for commercial or industrial uses. The site should be developed with a mix of land uses that includes multi-family residential, commercial, and business park/office.21
Constraints The general lack of improvements in the area will make it challenging to attract mixed use investment. The area is currently not attractive to business seeking improved industrial lots with landscaping, streetlights, and other amenities.
21 December 10, 2010 letter to Marcela Pierre from Joseph Abatti.
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4.4 NEW SHOPPING AREAS ALONG SOUTH DOGWOOD AVENUE
New shopping centers clustered around South Dogwood Avenue include three economic development opportunity areas (Figure 14). The one million square feet of new shopping center space has transformed this area into a regional shopping destination for residents of the Imperial Valley and Mexicali.
4.4.1 AREA 9: THE PLAZA @ IMPERIAL VALLEY
The Plaza @ Imperial Valley is a 350,000 square foot shopping center that was built in 2007. The shopping center’s location near the Imperial Valley Mall helped attract national chain stores such as Best Buy, Old Navy, and the Burlington Coat Factory. The Plaza accounts for 8 percent of El Centro’s occupied retail space (280,000 square feet). Two vacant storefronts account for 72,000 square feet of space and a relatively high 21 percent vacancy rate.
Constraints Visible vacant commercial buildings detract from the shopping center’s desirability as a retail location.
FIGURE 14 New Shopping Areas Along South Dogwood Road: Economic Development Goals and Site Characteristics
Area 10 Area 11 Area 9 Imperial Valley Mall and Imperial Valley Plaza at Imperial Valley Surrounding Pads Commons Covered mall opened in 2007 85-acres of vacant land visible to Shopping center developed in 2005 with 770,000 square feet of Interstate 8 traffic, with infrastructure with 350,000 square feet of space Area space. The site also includes a in place to support a new shopping that has attracted large format chain Description hotel and an additional 90,000 center. A new 65,000 square foot stores as anchor tenants. Includes square feet of retail space on the Kohl’s is under construction and will 70,000 square feet of vacant space surrounding pads open in September, 2011
Traffic bottlenecks along South Visible vacant commercial buildings Dogwood Avenue and at the Market Demand for New Retail Constraints detracts from the shopping center’s Interstate 8 interchange Shopping is saturated desirability as a retail location constrain traffic flows into the shopping district Customer base would be negatively affected by disruptions of cross-border shopping
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4.4.2 AREA 10: IMPERIAL VALLEY MALL
The City spent more than a decade to attract investors and developers to build the Imperial Valley Mall along Dogwood Avenue on the south side of Interstate 8. The covered mall that opened in 2004 includes 24 percent of the City’s retail space, including 770,000 square feet of leasable space anchored by four department stores and numerous apparel chain stores. The surrounding pads add another 90,000 square feet of commercial space to the site. Businesses in this area capture $141 million of sales that attracts customers from Mexicali and throughout the Imperial Valley. The 1 percent vacancy rate stands out in sharp contrast to El Centro’s other commercial areas, which suffer from very high vacancy rates. In addition, the Fairfield Inn is a premier lodging facility that attracts business visitors and tourists to within walking distance of the covered mall.
Constraints Traffic bottlenecks along Dogwood Avenue south of Interstate 8 discourage travel to this new shopping area. In addition, the customer base for the mall is heavily reliant on Mexicali shopper spending, which makes the mall vulnerable to potential disruptions to cross-border shopping.
4.4.3 AREA 11: IMPERIAL VALLEY COMMONS
The 85-acre vacant land area is a planned shopping center with infrastructure and signage in place that is visible to Interstate 8 traffic. The site’s outstanding location can benefit from the traffic flow and customer base generated by the neighboring Imperial Valley Mall. A 65,000 square foot Kohl’s store was recently attracted, which should kick start more development on the site.
Constraints The shopping center was partially built, but development was halted by the financial crisis. The development of more retail space in this area is unknown as the market demand for new retail shopping is still saturated, and it is unclear if more retail shopping can proceed to be developed.
* * *
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El Centro’s economic development element addresses the City’s challenges to expand jobs and improve household 5 Economic Development income. Element
he Economic Development Element articulates citywide economic development goals, policies and actions as well as goals and policies for the 16 opportunity areas. City leaders T and stakeholders can also use the Element to guide decisions about the type and location of future initiatives and projects that will generate positive outcomes for El Centro’s economy.
5.1 BACKGROUND
The Lehman Brothers collapse in September 2008 caused a chain of events that led the United States into the great recession and a reset of the national economy. A number of the nation’s most important financial institutions became insolvent and were bailed out by Congress and the Federal Reserve. Since that time housing prices have dramatically declined, 5.8 million private sector jobs disappeared, trillions of dollars of household net worth were lost, up to 30 percent of homeowners are under water, and housing foreclosures became a significant economic and social problem since 2008. These events have reduced consumer demand for goods and services as households cut costs to reduce debt causing a decline of state and local government retail sales tax receipts.
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The General Plan update process provides an opportunity for El Centro to strategically position the City to resume growth after the economy resets by taking advantage of the larger globalization forces that are shaping the economy of Southern California and the US-Mexico border area. The challenge will be to establish land uses that support viable business sectors, and facilitate the start-up and recruitment of businesses that will pay higher wages and reverse the declining incomes among households.
The Economic Development Element update that replaces the 2004 ED Element will help the City adjust to the changing economy with a strategy to reuse or redevelop the underutilized industrial and commercial sites and to improve downtown by encouraging new investment and a mix of commercial, residential and office uses.
5.2 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT GOALS, POLICIES AND ACTIONS
The economic development goals describe the outcomes that the City seeks to accomplish with its economic development initiatives. The policies and actions present various approaches towards achieving the goals (See Figure 15). Note that the policy and action numbers do not correspond with any type of prioritization.
5.2.1 ED GOAL-1: ATTRACT EMPLOYERS THAT PAY HIGHER WAGE
El Centro’s economic development efforts should attempt to reverse the steep decline of household incomes caused by a job mix that is dominated by low wage paying retail trade, leisure, and personal services business establishments. The income decline has occurred despite El Centro’s very strong job growth rates relative to the region and State. The City’s inventory of undeveloped industrial land and vacant shopping centers should be promoted as available business sites. A good promotional effort may require an improved website and trade show booth, with information about the available business sites and a description of possible business incentives.
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FIGURE 15 Economic Development Goals, Policies, and Actions
Economic Development Goals Policies and Actions Geographic Focus
1.1 Collaborate with the regional business attraction efforts led by the Imperial Valley EDC 1. Attract employers that pay 1.2 Assign staff or a consultant to be El Centro’s business attraction lead point of contact Entire City with no geographic focus higher wages 1.3 Continue to fund the IVEDC and participate in the Board meetings
2.1 Improve access to small business financing and technical assistance 2.2 Assure that El Centro can offer the full range of telecommunication services and support 2. Encourage entrepreneurship infrastructure Entire City with no geographic focus 2.3 Support the development of home businesses provided they do not adversely impact the surrounding neighborhood 3.1 Partner with the IVEDC, Imperial County and other regional partners to attract renewable energy 3. Encourage sustainable development investment to El Centro Entire City with no geographic focus practices 3,2 Evaluate the potential to attract green technology firms 3.3 Create incentives to encourage property owners to adopt renewable energy technologies 4.1 Use tax increment financing and the City’s Capital Improvement Fund to partner with industrial property land owners and developers to finance infrastructure improvements needed to create shovel 4. Create more shovel ready industrial Goal applies to undeveloped sites that are zoned for ready sites and business park sites industrial or business park uses. 4.2 Seek federal and state grants to fund the infrastructure improvements needed to create shovel ready industrial sites Goal applies to shopping centers with destination 5.1 Partner with magnet retailers and the Chamber to promote El Centro as a regional shopping stores that attract shoppers from Mexicali and the 5. Continue to attract shoppers from destination neighboring communities. Destinations include the Mexicali and neighboring communities 5.2 Establish a business retention program to track and monitor shopping patterns Plaza @ Imperial Valley, the Imperial Valley Mall, and the big box stores along Imperial Avenue
6. Improve community amenities that 6.1 Attract other tourism support businesses such as resorts, lodging facilities, restaurants, make El Centro a better place to live and recreational facilities such as golf courses and water parks Entire City with no geographic focus and visit 6.2 Upgrade and maintain City parks and recreational facilities such as Stark Field
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FIGURE 15 (continued) Economic Development Goals, Policies, and Actions
Economic Development Goals Policies and Actions Geographic Focus
7.1 Encourage the development of new housing and live/work space that will be attractive to people who may 7. Transform Downtown El Centro not have previously considered living downtown. into a mixed use neighborhood that 7.2 Continue to invest in downtown urban design and streetscape improvements Goal applies to the Main Street Corridor between attracts people to live, work and 7.3 Encourage a mix of different sizes and types of downtown businesses. 4th and 8th, and Broadway and State Street play in the area 7.4 Provide financial support in the form of reduced rents to attract artists and non-traditional uses to occupy vacant space 8.1 Encourage and allow vacant and underutilized shopping centers to be transitioned into a mix of Goal applies to the vacant and underutilized commercial retail, office and/or residential uses in the downtown area commercial sites at the Valley Plaza Shopping 8. Reduce the inventory of vacant Center, the El Centro Shopping Center, the 8.2 Encourage infill development and the redevelopment of underutilized sites along the Adams Avenue commercial space former Wal-Mart site, the Adams Avenue corridor corridor and the Highway 86 Railroad property 8.3 Encourage the planned redevelopment of the Highway 86 railroad properties site Goal applies to underutilized shopping center 9. Encourage more intensive 9.1 Collaborate with property owners to attract new uses with more building space and reduced parking sites along Imperial Avenue including the Valley development at underutilized 9.2 Collaborate with the property owners to transition underutilized shopping center sites into pedestrian Plaza Shopping Center, the former Heilig shopping center sites friendly areas Meyers Center, the El Centro Shopping Center and the former Wal-Mart store site 10.1 Expand code enforcement and require property owners to maintain the sties 10. Upgrade the appearance and Goal applies to underutilized shopping center 10.2 Encourage property owners to improve the appearance of boarded up buildings by collaborating with maintenance of abandoned and sites along Imperial Avenue including the former local artists underutilized commercial Heilig Meyers Center, the El Centro Shopping properties until they are revitalized 10.3 Collaborate with property owners to attract temporary uses to the acres of unused parking fronting Center and the former Wal-Mart store site Imperial Avenue 11.1 Encourage and allow some industrially zoned vacant land to be developed for general commercial or Goal applies to the vacant industrial land on the 11. Convert a portion of industrial land business park uses Abatti Property and at the El Centro Town into business park or general Center Phase II. The goal also guides the commercial uses 11.2 Proposals to convert industrially zoned land to residential uses should be discouraged, recognizing that redevelopment of the Highway 86 railroad the opportunity areas have some residentially zoned land that has yet to be developed properties 12. Complete the development of the 12.1 Encourage and allow the site to be developed for a mix of commercial retail and business park uses Goal applies to the Imperial Valley Commons Imperial Valley Commons site 12.2 Partner with the property owner to complete the infrastructure improvements required for site build out site
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Policies and Actions
ED Policy/Action 1.1: Collaborate with the regional business attraction efforts led by the Imperial Valley EDC The IVEDC has an ongoing effort to attract new investors and business prospects to Imperial County. However, it is up to El Centro to compete with neighboring communities for IVEDC-generated leads. The City should assign a single staff person to collaborate with the Imperial Valley Economic Development Corporation (IVEDC) at trade shows and other business recruitment tasks in order to strengthen its partnership with the IVEDC.
ED Policy/Action 1.2: Assign staff or a consultant to be El Centro’s primary point of contact for business attraction leads A single person should be to lead El Centro’s business attraction efforts El Centro’s single point of business contact would also respond to leads generated by the IVEDC.
ED Policy/Action 1-3: Continue to fund IVEDC and participate in its Board of Director Actions The City of El Centro should continue its financial support of IVEDC pending the availability of sufficient revenues. The funding should be expanded if fiscally viable. Funding the IVEDC should provide El Centro with a seat on the Board of Directors and a say in the direction of the regional business attraction efforts.
Geographic Focus Economic Development Goal #1 and the policies apply to the entire City and are not limited to any specific opportunity site.
5.2.2 ED GOAL-2: ENCOURAGE ENTREPRENEURSHIP
Efforts to expand small businesses and support new business startups are a proven strategy that can reduce unemployment and increase incomes. The City currently operates a small business loan fund, but improved access to technical assistance can also expand employment opportunities that increase household incomes.
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Policies and Actions
ED Policy/Action 2.1: Improve access to small business financing and technical assistance A staff person or a consultant should be assigned to inform self- employed entrepreneurs and small businesses about available financing from private banks Imperial Valley SBDC, the SBA, the City’s revolving loan fund and other small business lenders.
ED Policy/Action 2.2: El Centro should offer the full range of telecommunication services for business and households El Centro should have the necessary infrastructure to allow for high quality broadband service for business and residents. A citywide wi-fi service would make a positive contribution to the City’s image and its attractiveness to new business investment.
ED Policy/Action 2.3: Support the development of home businesses, provided they do not adversely impact the surrounding neighborhood Supporting the establishment of small home-based business encourages entrepreneurs to generate their own income sources. Firms with fewer than 20 employees accounted for 18 percent of private sector jobs in 2006, and nearly 25 percent of net employment growth from 1992 to 2005.22
Geographic Focus Economic development goal #2 and the policies apply to the entire City and not limited to on any specific opportunity site.
5.2.3 ED GOAL-3: ENCOURAGE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PRACTICES
El Centro must comply with California’s greenhouse gas reduction legislation that will affect land use, transportation, buildings and energy, waste reduction, water conservation, and green infrastructure (AB 32 and SB 375). The State’s climate change requirements create an opportunity for El Centro to capitalize on recent investments in geothermal energy plants and solar energy farms. The General Plan update can encourage energy efficient systems, waste and water saving technologies, more compact land-use patterns, and other sustainable practices that will create new jobs.
22 See President’s Council of Economic Advisors, The Economic Effects of Health Care Reform on Small Business. July 25, 2009.
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Policies and Actions
ED Policy/Action 3.1: Partner with the IVEDC, Imperial County and other regional partners to attract renewable energy investment to El Centro El Centro can benefit from investment in geothermal power plants, wind and solar power facilities. The construction activities can generate new jobs and a sustainable source of energy for business activities. Operating and maintaining the renewable energy facilities can create long term, permanent jobs.
ED Policy/Action 3.2: Evaluate the potential to attract “green” technology firms to El Centro, explore particular niches in the industry that El Centro may be able to attract and formulate a strategy to attract new green tech firms. Many southern California cities are aggressively pursuing green technology companies. The City should develop and implement a strategic plan that examines industry trends, catalogs existing green technology companies in Imperial County, and identifies the particular type of firms that El Centro would best serve with its ample industrial land. Competition from other jurisdictions should also be considered.
ED Policy/Action 3.3: Create incentives to encourage residential and commercial property owners to retrofit existing buildings and design new buildings with energy efficient and renewable energy technologies Other southern California cities have adopted programs to encourage property owners to retrofit their buildings, and require renewable energy technologies be incorporated into new commercial and residential buildings. The City should identify examples of successful programs adopted elsewhere, and replicate other communities’ successful case studies.
Geographic Focus Economic Development Goal #3 and the policies apply to the entire City and not focused on any specific opportunity site.
5.2.4 ED GOAL-4: CREATE MORE SHOVEL READY INDUSTRIAL SITES
El Centro has a large inventory of undeveloped industrially zoned land, but very few improved industrial lots with streetlights, sidewalks, landscaping, and other amenities. The Centerpoint Business Park is an example of an improved industrial area that has successfully attracted
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businesses and allowed El Centro to compete with the cities of Imperial and Calexico.
ED Policy/Action 4.1: Utilize public/private partnerships to help finance the infrastructure improvements needed to create shovel ready business sites It is often not feasible to create shovel ready industrial sites by relying on private financing of water, sewer, and other infrastructure improvements. Public/private partnerships can leverage additional investments that may be needed to implement industrial improvement projects. The Centerpoint Industrial Park is an example of a public private partnership that financed a successful industrial park.
ED Policy/Action 4.2: Apply for federal and state grants and/or loans to fund the infrastructure improvements Despite severe Federal and State fiscal constraints a few grants or lending sources remain to help finance infrastructure improvements. The Economic Development Administration (EDA) offers grants to fund infrastructure improvements, but require applicants to demonstrate a commitment from a business to locate on the site. State CDBG offers grants with similar requirements.
Geographic Focus Economic development goal #4 and the associated policies applies to vacant industrially zoned land at the El Centro Town Center Phase II, 8th Street Industrial Park Subdivision, Danenberg Industrial Site, South of El Centro Industrial Park, and the Abatti Property.
5.2.5 ED GOAL-5: CONTINUE TO ATTRACT SHOPPERS FROM MEXICALI AND NEIGHBORING COMMUNITIES
The City should initiate a promotional effort that continues to attract thousands of Mexicali shoppers to El Centro every day. The number of Mexicali shopping visitors may be expanded by a coordinated effort to promote the regional shopping center and El Centro’s other retail stores.
Policies and Actions
ED Policy/Action 5.1: Partner with anchor store retailers and the Chamber to promote El Centro as a regional shopping destination The City should explore ways to expand promotional opportunities that attract shoppers from neighboring Imperial County communities and Mexicali. Continuation of El Centro’s role as a regional shopping destination is critical to the City’s fiscal health.
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ED Policy/Action 5.2: Establish a business retention program to track and monitor shopping patterns The City should establish a direct line of communication with the major retailers and shopping center owners regarding their business expansion and retention needs. Improved communications could facilitate City assistance with business expansion and retention issues such as traffic flow, construction management, signage, and other urban design topics.
Geographic Focus Economic Development Goal #5 focuses on the destination retailers and shopping centers that include the Imperial Valley Mall, the Plaza at Imperial Valley, and the big box destination stores along Imperial Avenue. Smaller shopping centers and downtown El Centro are not regional shopping attractions.
5.2.6 ED GOAL-6: IMPROVE COMMUNITY AMENITIES THAT MAKE EL CENTRO A BETTER PLACE TO VISIT AND RESIDE
El Centro can become a more attractive visitor destination by improving the City’s physical attractiveness and upgrading community amenities.
Policies and Actions
ED Policy/Action 6.1: Attract tourism-support businesses such as resorts, lodging facilities, restaurants, golf courses, water parks and other recreational facilities El Centro can attract businesses that support snowbirds and other visitors who enjoy the area’s desert climate and natural and recreational resources. Resorts, lodging facilities, restaurants, golf courses and water parks are examples of tourism-support businesses that could locate in El Centro. However, competition with higher-end, more attractive visitor support facilities in Yuma and the Coachella Valley have constrained El Centro’s ability to attract new tourism support facilities.
ED Policy/Action 6.2: Upgrade and maintain City parks and recreational facilities Continued maintenance and improvements of the public parks and sports fields (i.e. Stark Field) makes El Centro a better place to live and a more attractive community to visit.
Geographic Focus Economic Development Goal #6 and the policies apply to the entire City and are not focused on any specific opportunity site.
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5.2.7 ED GOAL-7: TRANSFORM DOWNTOWN EL CENTRO INTO A MIXED-USE NEIGHBORHOOD
Downtown El Centro should be transitioned into a high-density neighborhood with a mix of retail, general commercial, office, and residential uses that attract people to live, work and play in the area. The former goal of revitalizing downtown as a retail-shopping destination should be abandoned.
Policies and Actions
ED Policy/Action 7.1: Encourage the development of new housing and live/work space that will attract people who may not have previously considered living downtown. Market rate and affordable housing should be developed on vacant infill sites. Underutilized buildings should be redeveloped with a mix of residential and commercial uses. Space could be converted into live/work studios in order to attract people who may not have previously considered living downtown.
ED Policy/Action 7.2: Continue to invest in downtown urban design and streetscape improvements The urban design and streetscape improvements that were started during the 1990s should be resumed with new investments to make the area more attractive.
ED Policy/Action 7.3: Encourage a mix of different sizes and types of downtown businesses Attracting people and businesses back into the downtown will require flexibility and creativity. The City should encourage a variety of businesses that may need different types of spaces. Flexible zoning rules should be adopted to attract business and residents into the vacant downtown spaces.
ED Policy/Action 7.4: Provide financial support in the form of reduced rents to attract artists and non-traditional uses to occupy vacant space The City could acquire some vacant downtown space, and lease it out to artists for a very low lease rates.
Geographic Focus Economic Development Goal #7 and the policies are focused on the Main Street corridor between 8th and 4th Street, and between Broadway and State.
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5.2.8 ED GOAL-8: REDUCE THE INVENTORY OF VACANT COMMERCIAL SPACE
El Centro should reduce the inventory of vacant shopping centers and other commercial space.
Policies and Actions
ED Policy/Action 8.1: Encourage and allow vacant and underutilized shopping centers to be transitioned into a mix of commercial retail, office and/or other business uses The City should encourage and consider proposals to redevelop the vacant shopping centers into alternative uses.
ED Policy/Action 8.2: Encourage mixed use infill development and the redevelopment of underutilized sites along the Adams Avenue corridor The City should encourage vacant and underutilized infill sites to be developed or redeveloped with a mix of uses.
ED Policy/Action 8.3: Encourage the planned redevelopment of the Highway 86 railroad properties The City should collaborate with the property owner to redevelop the abandoned rail yard buildings for general commercial or office uses. The site could benefit from a planned approach, as some buildings may be able to be saved, but other buildings will need to be demolished.
Geographic Focus Economic Development Goal #8 is focused on a limited number of sites along Imperial Avenue, the Adams Avenue corridor, and the Highway 86 railroad properties.
5.2.9 ED GOAL-9: ENCOURAGE MORE INTENSIVE DEVELOPMENT AT UNDERUTILIZED SHOPPING CENTER SITES
El Centro should encourage proposals to more intensively develop vacant and underutilized shopping centers. Proposals to add more building square footage and reduce off street parking requirements should be encouraged.
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Policies and Actions
ED Policy/Action 9.1: Collaborate with the property owners to attract new uses with more building space and reduced parking More intensive development can be achieved by redeveloping sites with a mix of uses.
ED Policy/Action 9.2: Collaborate with the property owners to transition underutilized shopping center sites into pedestrian friendly areas The design and amenities incorporated into the redevelopment of underutilized sites should promote pedestrian movement, including shade and walking areas that separate pedestrians from moving vehicles.
Geographic Focus Economic Development Goal #9 is focused on a limited number of sites along Imperial Avenue including the Valley Plaza Shopping Center, the former Heilig Meyers Center, Valley Centerpoint Plaza, and the former Wal-Mart store.
5.2.10 ED GOAL-10: UPGRADE THE APPEARANCE OF ABANDONED AND UNDERUTILIZED COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES UNTIL THEY ARE REVITALIZED
The appearance of the vacant and underutilized shopping centers should be improved in the short-term, and in advance of redevelopment or revitalization.
Policies and Actions
ED Policy/Action 10.1: Expand code enforcement and require property owners to maintain vacant and underutilized commercial sites A number of underutilized shopping center sites have become blighted with graffiti, broken windows and unmaintained parking lots. The owners should be required to maintain the properties, which will make the sites more attractive to new investors and improve the City’s appearance.
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ED Policy/Action 10.2: Encourage property owners to improve the appearance of boarded up buildings by collaborating with local artists The City should encourage property owners to improve the look of the vacant and underutilized shopping center sites by allowing local artists to create murals, sculptures, and other public art.
ED Policy/Action 10.3: Collaborate with property owners to utilize the vacant parking lots with temporary activities. People could be attracted to return to the vacant sites by establishing temporary activities on the unused parking lots such as cook offs, art shows, farmer’s markets and other similar activities.
Geographic Focus Economic Development Goal #10 is focused on a limited number of sites along Imperial Avenue.
5.2.11 ED GOAL-11: CONVERT A PORTION OF VACANT INDUSTRIAL LAND INTO BUSINESS PARK OR GENERAL COMMERCIAL USES
The current General Plan land-use designations leave El Centro with a 64-year inventory of undeveloped industrial land, some of which can be converted to other business uses. Essentially, El Centro has an oversupply of undeveloped industrial land, and a lack of land designated for office and business park uses outside of the Main Street corridor.
Policies and Actions
ED Policy/Action 11.1: Encourage and allow some industrially zoned vacant land to be developed for general commercial or business park uses. Alternative business uses for undeveloped industrial land should be considered because the absorption of industrial land is very slow, and it is difficult to finance the needed infrastructure improvements.
ED Policy/Action 11.2: Proposals to convert industrially zoned land to residential uses should be discouraged. Conversion to residential land use will remove sites from job creating business uses, and may set the stage for future land use conflicts.
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Geographic Focus Economic Development Goal #11 applies to the 120-acre Abatti site and the 18 acres of industrially zoned land within the El Centro Town Center Phase II site. The goal also applies to the built out Highway 86 railroad site that needs to be redeveloped.
5.2.12 GOAL ED-12: COMPLETE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE IMPERIAL VALLEY COMMONS SITE
A new Kohl’s was recently attracted to the Imperial Valley Commons site, which will encourage additional new investment for commercial uses. The build out of the partially completed site is an important economic development goal.
Policies and Actions
ED Policy/Action 12.1: Encourage and allow the site to be developed for a mix of general commercial, retail and business park uses The General Plan update should allow and encourage the site to be built out as a mix of uses. The City should partner with the landowner and developers to implement infrastructure improvements needed to complete the site build out.
Geographic Focus Economic Development Goal #12 applies to the Imperial Valley Commons site.
5.3 GOALS, POLICIES, AND ACTIONS FOR TARGETED OPPORTUNITY AREAS
Figure 16 re-sorts the economic development goals, policies, and action steps for the 16 opportunity areas in Figure 15. The re-sort allows the reader to connect the goals, policies, and action steps with the individual opportunity areas. The number of each goal and policy is consistent with the citywide goals.
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FIGURE 16 Opportunity Area Goals and Policies
Opportunity Areas Economic Development Goals Actions and Policies Imperial Avenue Corridor . Encourage and allow the shopping center to be transitioned into a mix of commercial retail, . Reduce the inventory of vacant commercial space office and/or residential uses (ED Policy 8.1) (ED Goal #8) 1. Imperial Valley Plaza . Attract new uses with more building space and reduced parking (ED Policy 9.1) . Encourage more intensive development at underutilized shopping centers (ED Goal #9) . Transition the shopping center into a pedestrian friendly area (ED Policy 9.2)
. Reduce the inventory of vacant commercial space (ED Goal #8) . Encourage and allow the shopping center to be transitioned into a mix of commercial retail, office and/or residential uses (ED Policy 8.1) . Encourage more intensive development at 2. Former Heilig Meyers underutilized shopping centers (ED Goal #9) . Attract new uses with more building space and reduced parking (ED Policy 9.1) Center . Upgrade the appearance and maintenance of the . Expand code enforcement and require property owner to maintain the site and the appearance shopping center until the property is revitalized or of dilapidated buildings (ED Policy 10.1) redeveloped (ED Goal #10)
. Encourage the vacant parcel to be developed for 3. Bowling Alley Site . Collaborate with the property owner to facilitate development of the vacant site recreation or entertainment related uses
. Encourage and allow the shopping center to be transitioned into a mix of commercial retail, office and/or residential uses (ED Policy 8.1)
. Reduce the inventory of vacant commercial space . Encourage the property owner to attract new uses with more building space and reduced (ED Goal #8) parking (ED Policy 9.1) 4. Valley Centerpoint Plaza . Encourage more intensive development at . Transition the shopping center into pedestrian friendly areas (ED Policy 9.2) underutilized shopping centers (ED Goal #9) . Expand code enforcement and require property owner to maintain the site and the appearance of dilapidated buildings (ED Policy 10.1) . Collaborate with property owners to attract temporary uses to the unused parking in front of Imperial Avenue (ED Policy 10.2)
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FIGURE 16 (continued) Opportunity Area Goals and Policies
Opportunity Areas Economic Development Goals Actions and Policies
. Encourage and allow the Imperial Valley Plaza to be transitioned into a mix of commercial retail, office and/or residential uses (ED Policy 8.1) . Reduce the inventory of vacant commercial space (ED Goal #8) . Encourage the property owner to attract new uses with more building space and reduced parking (ED Policy 9.1) . Encourage more intensive development at 5. Former Wal-Mart Store underutilized shopping centers (ED Goal #9) . Transition the shopping center into pedestrian friendly areas (ED Policy 9.2) . Upgrade the appearance and maintenance of the . Expand code enforcement and require property owner to maintain the site and the appearance shopping center until the property is revitalized or of dilapidated buildings (ED Policy 10.1) redeveloped (ED Goal #10) . Collaborate with property owners to attract temporary uses to the unused parking in front of Imperial Avenue (ED Policy 10.2) . Use Redevelopment tax increment financing and the City’s Capital Improvement Fund to finance . Create more shovel ready industrial and business the infrastructure improvements needed to create shovel ready sites (ED Policy 4.1) 6. El Centro Town Center park sites (ED Goal #4) . Seek federal and state grants to fund the infrastructure improvements needed to create shovel Phase II . Convert land zoned for the regional airport (RAP) into ready industrial sites (ED Policy 4.2) business park uses (ED Goal #11) . Encourage and allow some vacant RAP zoned land to be developed for business park uses (ED Policy 11.1)
Center City District
. Reduce the inventory of vacant commercial space . 8.2 Encourage infill development and the redevelopment of underutilized sites along the Adams (ED Goal #8) Avenue corridor . Encourage and allow more intensive development at . Collaborate with property owners to attract new uses with more building space to vacant and 7. Adams Avenue Corridor underutilized shopping center sites (ED Goal #9) underutilized sites (ED Policy 9.1) . Upgrade the appearance and maintenance of . Expand code enforcement and require property owners to maintain the sties and the abandoned and underutilized commercial properties appearance of dilapidated buildings (ED Policy 10.1) until they are revitalized (ED Goal #10)
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FIGURE 16 (continued) Opportunity Area Goals and Policies
Opportunity Areas Economic Development Goals Actions and Policies
. Encourage the development of new housing and live/work space that will be attractive to people who may not have previously considered living downtown. (ED Policy 7.1) . Continue to invest in downtown urban design and streetscape improvements (ED Policy 7.2) . Transform Downtown El Centro into a mixed use . Encourage a mix of different sizes and types of downtown businesses (ED Policy 7.3) 8. Downtown Main Street neighborhood that attracts people to live, work and Corridor play in the area (ED Goal #7) . Provide financial support in the form of reduced rents to attract artists and non-traditional uses to occupy vacant space (ED Policy 7.4)
. Implement Project Shape recommendations for improved parking, landscaping and land use changes
. Reduce the inventory of vacant commercial space . Encourage and allow the site to be transitioned into a mix of commercial retail, general (ED Goal #8) 9. Highway 86 Railroad commercial or office uses (ED Policy 8.1) . Upgrade the appearance and maintenance of Properties . Expand code enforcement and require property owners to maintain the sties and the abandoned and underutilized commercial properties appearance of dilapidated buildings (ED Policy 10.1) until they are revitalized (ED Goal #10) Industrial Areas . Use Redevelopment tax increment financing and the City’s Capital Improvement Fund to finance . Create more shovel ready industrial and business the infrastructure improvements needed to create shovel ready sites (ED Policy 4.1) 10. 8th Street Industrial Park park sites (ED Goal #4) . Seek federal and state grants to fund the infrastructure improvements needed to create shovel Subdivision . Convert the industrially zoned land into business park ready industrial sites (ED Policy 4.2) or general commercial uses (ED Goal #11) . Encourage and allow some vacant industrially zoned land to be developed for general commercial or business park uses (ED Policy 11.1) . Use Redevelopment tax increment financing and the City’s Capital Improvement Fund to finance the infrastructure improvements needed to create shovel ready sites (ED Policy 4.1) 11. Danenberg Industrial Site . Create more shovel ready industrial and business park sites (ED Goal #4) . Seek federal and state grants to fund the infrastructure improvements needed to create shovel ready industrial sites (ED Policy 4.2)
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FIGURE 16 (continued) Opportunity Area Goals and Policies
Opportunity Areas Economic Development Goals Actions and Policies
. Use Redevelopment tax increment financing and the City’s Capital Improvement Fund to finance 12. South of El Centro . Create more shovel ready industrial and business the infrastructure improvements needed to create shovel ready sites (ED Policy 4.1) Industrial Park park sites (ED Goal #4) . Seek federal and state grants to fund the infrastructure improvements needed to create shovel ready industrial sites (ED Policy 4.2)
. Use Redevelopment tax increment financing and the City’s Capital Improvement Fund to finance the infrastructure improvements needed to create shovel ready sites (ED Policy 4.1) . Seek federal and state grants to fund the infrastructure improvements needed to create shovel . Create more shovel ready industrial and business ready industrial sites (ED Policy 4.2) 13. Abatti Property park sites (ED Goal #4) . Encourage and allow some vacant industrially zoned land to be developed for general
commercial or business park uses (ED Policy 11.1) . Proposals to convert industrially zoned land to residential uses should be discouraged (ED Policy 11.2)
New Shopping Areas Along South Dogwood Road . Continue to attract shoppers from Mexicali and neighboring communities (ED Goal #5) 14. The Plaza @ Imperial Valley . Promote the shopping center in Mexicali (ED Policy 5.1) . Reduce the inventory of vacant commercial space (ED Goal #8)
15. Imperial Valley Mall . Continue to attract shoppers from Mexicali and . Promote the shopping center in Mexicali (ED Policy 5.1) neighboring communities (ED Goal #5) . Encourage and allow the site to be developed for a mix of commercial retail, business park and residential uses (ED Policy 12.1) . Complete the development of the Imperial Valley 16. Imperial Valley Commons . Promote the shopping center in Mexicali (ED Policy 5.1) Commons site (ED Goal #12) . Partner with the property owner to complete the infrastructure improvements required for site build out (ED Policy 12.2)
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IMPERIAL AVENUE CORRIDOR
5.3.1 AREA 1 GOALS: VALLEY PLAZA SHOPPING CENTER
The Valley Plaza Shopping Center should transition into a mixed use business center. The General Plan update should encourage the site to be more intensively developed with new business space, reduced parking, and amenities that encourage pedestrian activities.
5.3.2 AREA 2 GOALS: FORMER HEILIG MEYERS CENTER
This underutilized shopping center should be more intensively developed with new business space and a reduced number of parking spaces. The site’s appearance should be upgraded and maintenance improved until the demand for new business space improves.
5.3.3 AREA 3 GOALS: BOWLING ALLEY SITE
This area should encourage more recreation or entertainment uses that complement the bowling alley. It is also important that the bowling alley remains a recreation and entertainment destination that is competitive in the regional market place.
5.3.4 AREA 4 GOALS: VALLEY CENTERPOINT PLAZA (FORMER EL CENTRO SHOPPING CENTER)
This underutilized site should be redeveloped or reused with a mix of uses that are compatible with the Imagine Charter School. The General Plan update should encourage the site to be more intensively developed with additional buildings and a reduced amount of land dedicated for parking. The vacant buildings should be properly maintained until the demand for new business and residential space improves.
5.3.5 AREA 5 GOALS: FORMER WAL-MART STORE SITE
The former Wal-Mart site should be redeveloped with a mix of business uses. More intensive development on the site should be encouraged along with a reduced amount of land reserved for parking. The vacant building should be properly maintained until the demand for new business space improves.
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5.3.6 AREA 6 GOALS: EL CENTRO TOWN CENTER PHASE II
The General Plan should encourage the build out of this 30-acre area with a mix of office, business-park uses, recognizing that site buildout is constrained by the area’s location within the regional airport zone. A public-private partnership could help finance the infrastructure improvements needed to develop shovel ready business sites.
CENTER CITY DISTRICT
5.3.7 AREA 7 GOALS: ADAMS AVENUE CORRIDOR
Vacant and underutilized sites within this corridor should be developed or redeveloped for higher and better uses. The attraction of new private investment can upgrade the appearance and economic vitality of the corridor.
5.3.8 AREA 8 GOALS: DOWNTOWN MAIN STREET CORRIDOR
The downtown should be transitioned into a mixed-use neighborhood that includes retail, general commercial, office, and residential uses. Infill housing should be encouraged on vacant and underutilized lots. Flexible zoning should attract a diversity of people and businesses into the vacant downtown spaces. Project Shape recommendations for parking, landscaping and land use changes should be implemented.
5.3.9 AREA 13 GOALS: HIGHWAY 86 RAILROAD PROPERTIES
This area should be transformed into general commercial or office uses. The dilapidated buildings should be maintained and the appearance improved until the site can be revitalized.
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INDUSTRIAL AREAS
5.3.10 AREA 12 GOALS: 8TH STREET INDUSTRIAL PARK SUBDIVISION
Shovel ready business sites should be created for the 17 acres of vacant industrially zoned land. The effort will require a partnership between the private property owners, the City and federal and state agencies that may fund infrastructure improvements.
5.3.11 AREA 14 GOALS: DANENBERG INDUSTRIAL AREA Shovel ready business sites should be created for the 27-acres of vacant industrially zoned land. The effort will require a partnership between the private property owners, the City and federal and state agencies that may fund infrastructure improvements.
5.3.12 AREA 15 GOALS: SOUTH OF EL CENTRO INDUSTRIAL PARK
Shovel ready business sites should be created for this 17-acre area of vacant industrial land. The effort will require a partnership between the private property owners, the City and federal and state agencies that may fund infrastructure improvements.
5.3.13 AREA 16 GOALS: ABATTI PROPERTY (SOUTH OF CENTERPOINT BUSINESS PARK)
This 120-acre area should be developed with a mix of business uses. The General Plan update should allow the vacant industrially zoned land to be reclassified and developed for business park and/or office uses due to the weak demand for industrial space and strong demand for business park space. Shovel ready sites should be created for business park/office uses.
NEW SHOPPING AREAS ALONG SOUTH DOGWOOD AVENUE
5.3.14 AREA 9 GOALS: PLAZA @ IMPERIAL VALLEY
The Plaza @ Imperial Valley Plaza should remain a competitive retail destination in the regional marketplace by a strong marketing effort that continues to attract corporate retailers to occupy the large spaces. Office
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and general commercial uses should be attracted to the newly built smaller spaces on the other side of the parking lot.
5.3.15 AREA 10 GOALS: IMPERIAL VALLEY MALL AND SURROUNDING PADS
The covered mall should be promoted as Imperial County’s premier regional shopping destination by marketing the area to Mexicali shoppers, and improving the flow of traffic along Dogwood Avenue and at the Interstate 8 interchange.
5.3.16 AREA 11 GOALS: IMPERIAL VALLEY COMMONS
This area should complete the site built out by allowing the property owner to develop a mix of office, general commercial, and retail uses. The City should no longer require the property owner to develop another regional shopping center because of saturated demand for new retail space. The new Kohl’s should be promoted to Mexicali shoppers.
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APPENDIX A: TABLES
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TABLE A-1 California Employment Trends, 1998–2010
Annual Growth Job Growth Rates 1998– 2008– 1998– 2008– 1998 2007 2010 2007 2010 2007 2010 Total Nonfarm 13,623,800 15,173,700 14,424,200 1,549,900 -749,500 1.2% 1.7% Total Private 11,457,700 12,679,100 12,010,700 1,221,400 -668,400 1.1% -1.8%
Goods Producing 2,524,300 2,383,700 2,045,700 -140,600 -338,000 Mining, Logging & Construction 670,500 919,300 707,900 248,800 -211,400 -2.9% -8.3% Manufacturing 1,853,800 1,464,400 1,337,800 -389,400 -126,600 -1.0% -3.0%
Private Service Producing 8,933,400 10,295,400 9,965,000 1,362,000 -330,400 Wholesale Trade 615,000 715,300 678,800 100,300 -36,500 -0.6% -1.7% Retail Trade 1,476,700 1,689,900 1,552,900 213,200 -137,000 -0.9% -2.8% Transportation, Warehousing 497,700 507,600 486,000 9,900 -21,600 -0.5% -1.4% and Utilities Information 483,500 470,800 456,800 -12,700 -14,000 -0.3% -1.0% Financial Activities 785,600 904,600 793,800 119,000 -110,800 -1.4% -4.3% Professional & Business 2,017,300 2,264,300 2,166,900 247,000 -97,400 -0.5% -1.5% Services Educational & Health Services 1,332,100 1,670,300 1,773,800 338,200 103,500 0.7% 2.0% Leisure & Hospitality 1,264,800 1,560,400 1,549,700 295,600 -10,700 -0.1% -0.2% Other Services 460,700 512,200 506,300 51,500 -5,900 -0.1% -0.4% Government 2,166,100 2,494,600 2,413,500 328,500 -81,100 -0.4% -1.1%
Data Source: California Employment Development Department. Analysis: Wahlstrom & Associates.
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TABLE A-2 Five-County Region Employment Trends, 1998–2010
Job Growth Annual Growth Rates 1998– 2008– 1998 2007 2010 1998–2007 2008–2010 2007 2010 Total Nonfarm 5,961,000 6,748,000 6,374,384 787,000 -373,616 1.4% -1.9% Total Private 5,041,300 5,686,500 5,346,804 645,200 -339,696 1.3% -2.0%
Goods Producing 1,125,200 1,037,900 894,910 -87,300 -142,990 Mining, Logging, and 246,900 365,100 292,410 118,200 -72,690 3.1% -7.1% Construction Manufacturing 878,300 672,800 602,500 -205,500 -70,300 -2.4% -3.6% Private Service Producing 3,916,100 4,648,600 4,451,894 732,500 -196,706 Wholesale Trade 285,600 331,200 306,740 45,600 -24,460 0.9% -2.5% Retail Trade 621,000 757,200 696,640 136,200 -60,560 1.1% -2.7% Transportation, Warehousing 239,400 265,700 256,664 26,300 -9,036 1.4% -1.1% and Utilities Information 262,100 263,200 254,450 1,100 -8,750 1.0% -1.1% Financial Activities 324,900 377,900 324,220 53,000 -53,680 0.0% -5.0% Professional & Business 833,000 969,900 903,930 136,900 -65,970 1.7% -2.3% Services Educational & Health 600,100 749,900 785,650 149,800 35,750 2.0% 1.6% Services Leisure & Hospitality 543,900 695,800 689,330 151,900 -6,470 2.1% -0.3% Other Services 206,100 237,800 234,270 31,700 -3,530 1.2% -0.5% Government 919,700 1,061,500 1,027,580 141,800 -33,920 1.1% -1.1%
Source: Historical data reported by the California Employment Development Department. Analysis: Wahlstrom & Associates. Notes: 1) Data combines employment within the 5-County region of Los Angeles, San Diego, San Bernardino, Riverside and Imperial. 2) Projections assume a continuation of past industry trends in the five county region relative to California industry trends.
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TABLE A-3 Imperial County Employment Trends, 1998–2010
Annual Growth Job Growth Rates 1998– 2008– 1998– 2008– 1998 2007 2010 2007 2010 2007 2010 Total Nonfarm 34,200 45,900 46,040 11,700 140 3.3% 0.1% Total Private 19,800 27,800 27,009 8,000 -790 3.8% -1.0%
Goods Producing 3,100 4,500 4,200 1,400 -300 Mining, Logging, and Construction 1,400 1,900 1,470 500 -430 3.5% -8.3% Manufacturing 1,700 2,600 2,730 900 130 4.8% 1.6%
Private Service Producing 16,700 23,300 22,809 6,600 -490 Wholesale Trade 1,800 1,900 1,780 100 -120 0.6% -2.1% Retail Trade 5,400 7,500 7,110 2,100 -390 3.7% -1.8% Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities 800 1,800 1,933 1,000 130 9.4% 2.4% Information 500 400 360 -100 -40 -2.4% -3.4% Financial Activities 1,200 1,400 1,240 200 -160 1.7% -3.9% Professional & Business Services 1,900 2,700 2,557 800 -140 4.0% -1.8% Educational & Health Services 1,700 2,900 3,150 1,200 250 6.1% 2.8% Leisure & Hospitality 2,700 3,500 3,420 800 -80 2.9% -0.7% Other Services 700 1,200 1,260 500 60 6.2% 1.6% Government 14,400 18,100 19,030 3,700 930 2.6% 1.7%
Source: Historical data reported by the California Employment Development Department. Analysis: Wahlstrom & Associates.
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TABLE A-4 El Centro Employment Trends, 1998–2010
Annual Job Growth Growth Rate 1998– 2008– 1998– 2008- 1998 2007 2010 2007 2010 2007 2010 Total 19,420 25,660 25,910 6,240 250 3.0% 0.3% Total Private 9,940 13,760 13,270 3,820 -490 3.7% -1.2% Goods Producing 1,110 1,950 1,750 840 -200 Mining, Logging, and Construction 440 1,050 810 610 -240 10.1% -8.3% Manufacturing 670 900 940 230 40 3.3% 1.5% Private Service Producing 8,470 11,330 11,040 2,980 -290 Wholesale Trade 680 680 640 0 -40 0.0% -2.0% Retail Trade 2,720 3,510 3,330 790 -180 2.9% -1.7% Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities 190 390 420 200 30 8.3% 2.5% Information 360 300 270 -60 -30 -2.0% -3.5%
Financial Activities 260 780 690 520 13.0% -4.0%
Professional & Business Services 1,190 1,860 1,760 670 -100 5.1% -1.8%
Educational & Health Services 1,210 1,530 1,660 320 130 2.6% 2.8%
Leisure & Hospitality 1,450 1,600 1,560 150 -40 1.1% -0.8%
Other Services 410 680 710 270 30 5.8% 1.4%
Government 9,480 11,900 12,640 2,420 740 3.9% 1.7%
Data Sources: US County Business Patterns; California Employment Development Department; "Self-Employment in the United States: an Update.” Monthly Labor Review, April 2004. Analysis: Wahlstrom & Associates. Notes: 1) Government employment estimates assumes that 80% of federal and state employment, and 60% of local government employment is located in El Centro. 2) Self employment estimates assume national averages.
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TABLE A-5 Summary of Built Commercial Space in El Centro’s Commercial Areas, 2010
Adams Imperial Imperial Main Plaza @ Percent Valley & 4th Valley Avenue Street Imperial El Centro Total Type of Use Plaza Ave. Mall & Corridor Downtown Valley (Total) Type of (1) Corridor Pads (2) (4) (5) Use (3) (6) Retail 29,300 1,375,200 395,500 148,200 277,600 706,700 2,932,500 70% Restaurants & Fast Food 14,600 115,900 126,100 33,900 0 56,200 346,700 8% Personal Service 1,800 22,800 16,700 34,700 0 85,300 161,300 4% Establishments Rental Establishments 10,200 64,000 9,000 0 0 0 83,200 2% Vacant Retail 76,600 376,900 62,000 68,800 72,400 8,600 665,300 16% Total Built Space 132,500 1,954,800 609,300 285,600 350,000 856,800 4,189,000 Percent Total built space 3% 47% 15% 7% 8% 20% by Sub-area Total Space Occupied by Commercial 55,900 1,577,900 547,300 216,800 277,600 848,200 3,523,700 Establishments Percent Total occupied 2% 45% 16% 6% 8% 24% space by Sub-area Vacancy Rates by 58% 19% 10% 24% 21% 1% 16% Sub-area
Source: Field inventory completed by Wahlstrom & Associates during the months of October to December 2009; partial data provided by the City of El Centro. Notes: (1) Valley Plaza is El Centro’s first shopping center located at the corner of Imperial Avenue and State Street. (2) Corridor includes all commercial space from the Interstate 8 interchange to the City of Imperial boundary, excluding the Valley Plaza commercial space. (3) Corridor includes all commercial space from the Adams and Imperial Ave. intersections, and along 4th Street on both sides of the Interstate 8 interchanges until the City/County border. (4) Downtown includes Main Street, between State and Broadway, and between 4th and 8th. (5) This new shopping center is located along Dogwood Avenue and includes Best Buy as one of the anchor stores. (6) This area includes the covered mall and the surrounding open-air commercial pads. Data does not include built space used for auto service, repair establishments, office or light industrial buildings partially utilized for retail.
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TABLE A-6 Estimates of Built Business Space by Land Use Categories in El Centro, 2007
Developed Building SF Built Space Land Use Categories Employment1 FAR3 Acreage per employee2 Estimates Estimate
Retail Centers, Strip Malls & 5,470 640 0.25 4,189,000 380 Downtown Retail Space Office and Business Park Space 16,120 325 0.25 5,259,000 480 Industrial Space 670 450 0.25 302,000 30 Warehouse 420 800 0.35 336,000 30 Other Business Land Uses 2,210 n/a n/a n/a n/a Self Employed 530 n/a n/a n/a n/a Total 25,420 10,086,000 920
Data Sources: U.S. County Business Patterns; California Employment Development Department; "Self-Employment in the United States: An Update.” Monthly Labor Review, April 2004. Southern California Association of Governments Employment Density Study, 2001, Wahlstrom & Associates field research. Analysis: Wahlstrom & Associates. Notes: Employment by industry data is converted into employment by land use categories. Retail data measures occupied and vacant spaces.
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TABLE A-7 El Centro Employment Projections, 2010–2025
Projected Growth Job Growth Rates
2010 – 2017– 2010- 2017- 2010 2016 2025 2016 2025 2016 2025
Total 25,910 32,420 37,350 7,000 4,910 4.1% 2.4%
Total Private 13,270 17,120 20,120 4,330 3,000 5.0% 2.7%
Goods Producing 1,750 2,450 2,750 700 300 Mining, Logging, and Construction 810 1,090 1,040 280 -50 5.1% -0.8% Manufacturing 940 1,360 1,710 420 350 6.3% 3.9% Private Service Producing 11,040 14,060 16,670 3,630 2,700 Wholesale Trade 640 710 730 70 20 1.7% 0.5% Retail Trade 3,330 4,350 5,080 1,020 730 4.6% 2.6% Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities 420 600 880 180 280 6.1% 6.6% Information 270 280 250 10 -30 0.6% -1.9%
Financial Activities 690 900 970 210 70 4.5% 1.3%
Professional & Business Services 1,760 2,200 2,580 430 390 3.7% 2.8%
Educational & Health Services 1,660 2,350 3,020 690 670 6.0% 4.3%
Leisure & Hospitality 1,560 1,770 2,000 210 230 2.1% 2.1%
Other Services 710 900 1,160 190 260 4.0% 4.3%
Government 12,640 15,310 17,230 2,670 1,920 3.2% 2.0%
Data Sources: US County Business Patterns; California Employment Development Department; "Self-Employment in the United States: An Update.” Monthly Labor Review, April 2004. Analysis: Wahlstrom & Associates. Notes: 1) Government employment estimates assumes that 80% of federal and state employment, and 60% of local government employment is located in El Centro. 2) Self employment estimates assume national averages.
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TABLE A-8 California Employment Projections, 2010–2025
Job Growth Projected Growth Rates 2010– 2017– 2010– 2017– 2010 2016 2025 2016 2025 2016 2025 Total Nonfarm 14,424,200 17,774,400 19,399,830 3,350,200 1,625,430 3.5% 1.5% Total Private 12,010,700 14,938,600 16,307,160 2,927,900 1,368,560 3.7% 1.4%
Goods Producing 2,045,700 2,573,000 2,544,850 527,300 -28,150 Mining, Logging & Construction 707,900 1,083,500 1,247,650 375,600 164,150 7.4% 1.8% Manufacturing 1,337,800 1,489,500 1,297,200 151,700 -192,300 1.8% -1.7%
Private Service Producing 9,965,000 12,365,600 13,762,310 2,400,600 1,396,710 Wholesale Trade 678,800 808,300 914,230 129,500 105,930 3.0% 1.6% Retail Trade 1,552,900 1,910,900 2,056,870 358,000 145,970 3.5% 0.9% Transportation, Warehousing 486,000 557,600 605,870 71,600 48,270 2.3% 1.0% and Utilities Information 456,800 540,400 589,050 83,600 48,650 2.8% 1.1% Financial Activities 793,800 1,017,500 1,064,460 223,700 46,960 4.2% 0.6% Professional & Business 2,166,900 2,758,700 2,886,020 591,800 127,320 4.1% 0.6% Services Educational & Health Services 1,773,800 2,391,900 2,888,680 618,100 496,780 5.1% 2.4% Leisure & Hospitality 1,549,700 1,809,500 2,128,480 259,800 318,980 2.6% 2.1% Other Services 506,300 570,800 628,650 64,500 57,850 2.0% 1.2% Government 2,413,500 2,835,800 3,092,670 422,300 256,870 2.7% 1.1%
Data Source: California Employment Development Department. Analysis: Wahlstrom & Associates. Notes: Data utilizes State EDD Projections through 2016, and assumes the historical growth rates between 1990 and 2007 for the period of 2017 to 2025.
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TABLE A-9 Five-County Region Employment Projections, 2010–2025
Job Growth Projected Growth Rates 2010– 2017– 2011– 2017 - 2010 2016 2025 2016 2025 2016 2025 Total Nonfarm 6,374,384 7,667,580 8,446,910 1,293,196 779,330 3.1% 1.2% Total Private 5,346,804 6,458,870 7,124,500 1,112,066 665,630 3.2% 1.2%
Goods Producing 894,910 1,063,960 1,063,940 169,050 -20 Mining, Logging, and 292,410 418,160 531,860 125,750 113,700 6.1% 3.1% Construction Manufacturing 602,500 645,800 532,080 43,300 -113,720 1.2% -2.4%
Private Service 4,451,894 5,394,910 6,060,560 943,016 665,650 Producing Wholesale Trade 306,740 348,670 373,110 41,930 24,440 2.2% 0.9% Retail Trade 696,640 859,140 939,690 162,500 80,550 3.6% 1.1% Transportation, Warehousing 256,664 299,560 334,480 42,896 34,920 2.6% 1.4% and Utilities Information 254,450 298,920 323,920 44,470 25,000 2.7% 1.0% Financial Activities 324,220 398,730 397,890 74,510 -840 3.5% 0.0% Professional & 903,930 1,094,560 1,253,830 190,630 159,270 3.2% 1.7% Business Services Educational & 785,650 1,031,910 1,204,560 246,260 172,650 4.6% 2.0% Health Services Leisure & 689,330 801,050 945,310 111,720 144,260 2.5% 2.1% Hospitality Other Services 234,270 262,370 287,770 28,100 25,400 1.9% 1.2% Government 1,027,580 1,208,710 1,322,410 181,130 113,700 2.7% 1.1%
Source: California Employment Development Department. Analysis: Wahlstrom & Associates. Notes: 1) Data combines employment within the 5-County region of Los Angeles, San Diego, San Bernardino, Riverside and Imperial. 2) Projections assume a continuation of past industry trends in the five county region relative to California industry trends.
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TABLE A-10 Imperial County Employment Projections, 2010–2025
Projected Growth Job Growth Rates 2010– 2017– 2010– 2017– 2010 2016 2025 2016 2025 2016 2025 Total Nonfarm 46,040 57,440 66,540 11,400 9,100 3.8% 1.9% Total Private 27,009 35,060 41,760 8,050 6,700 4.4% 2.2%
Goods Producing 4,200 5,930 6,860 1,730 930 Mining, Logging, and Construction 1,470 1,970 1,880 500 -90 5.0% -0.6% Manufacturing 2,730 3,960 4,980 1,230 1,020 6.4% 2.9%
Private Service Producing 22,809 29,130 34,900 6,320 5,770 Wholesale Trade 1,780 1,970 2,020 190 50 1.7% 0.3% Retail Trade 7,110 9,280 10,830 2,170 1,550 4.5% 2.0% Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities 1,933 2,770 4,060 840 1,290 6.2% 4.9% Information 360 370 330 10 -40 0.5% -1.3% Financial Activities 1,240 1,620 1,740 380 120 4.6% 0.9% Professional & Business Services 2,557 3,190 3,760 630 570 3.8% 2.1% Educational & Health Services 3,150 4,450 5,720 1,300 1,270 5.9% 3.2% Leisure & Hospitality 3,420 3,880 4,380 460 500 2.1% 1.5% Other Services 1,260 1,600 2,060 340 460 4.0% 3.2% Government 19,030 22,390 24,800 3,360 2,410 2.7% 1.3%
Source: State projections prepared by the California Employment Development Department. Analysis: Wahlstrom & Associates. Note: Projections assume a continuation of past industry trends in Imperial County relative to California and the Southern California region.
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TABLE A-11 Land Demand and Built Space Projections in El Centro, 2010–2025 (In millions of SF)
2010 2025 Projected Growth 2010 Built Developed 2025 Built Developed New New Space Land Use Categories Space Acreage Space Acreage Acreage Required Estimates Estimate Estimates Estimate Required
Retail Centers, Strip Malls & 4,189,000 380 5,299,000 490 450,000 50 Downtown Retail Space
Vacant Retail Space 660,000 60 Office and Business Park Space 5,259,000 480 7,360,000 680 2,101,000 200 Industrial Space 302,000 30 459,000 42 157,000 12 Warehouse 336,000 30 576,000 50 240,000 20 Other Business Land Uses n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Self Employed n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Total 10,086,000 920 13,694,000 1,262 2,948,000 282
Analysis: Wahlstrom & Associates. Note: Projected demand for new space will be reduced by employers absorbing existing vacant space.
TABLE A-12 Taxable Sales Trends in El Centro and Neighboring Jurisdictions, 2000–2008
Annual Annual Growth Growth 2000 2002 2006 2007 2008 Rate Rate 2000-2006 2006-2008 El Centro 524,000,000 546,700,000 824,000,000 786,000,000 724,900,000 7.8% -4.2%
Percent of Imperial 45% 44% 49% 49% 51% County Total Calexico 382,100,000 413,100,000 435,000,000 430,600,000 366,900,000 2.2% -5.5% Brawley 97,100,000 107,900,000 111,000,000 111,800,000 105,000,000 2.3% -1.8% Imperial (City) 51,300,000 48,200,000 108,400,000 107,800,000 90,500,000 13.3% -5.8% Imperial County 1,170,900,000 1,237,300,000 1,666,900,000 1,608,000,000 1,421,600,000 6.1% -5.2% California 357,584,300,000 359,621,100,000 413,962,200,000 400,467,400,000 355,990,700,000 2.5% -4.9%
Data Source: California State Board of Equalization. Analysis: Wahlstrom & Associates. Note: Data is adjusted for inflation and measured in $2009.
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TABLE A-13 Population Growth Trends in El Centro and the Region, 1990–2009
Annual Annual Growth Growth Geographic Area 1990 2000 Rate 2009 Rate 1990-2000 2000-2009 California 29,760,021 33,871,648 1.3% 38,292,700 1.4% Imperial County 109,303 142,361 2.7% 179,300 2.6% El Centro 32,772 37,835 1.4% 44,300 1.8% Imperial (City) 4,751 7,560 4.8% 13,000 6.2% Brawley 18,907 22,052 1.6% 26,400 2.0% Calexico 19,060 27,109 3.6% 39,300 4.2%
Data Sources: U.S. Census, 1990 and 2000; California Department of Finance. Analysis: Wahlstrom & Associates.
TABLE A-14 Average Real Household Income Trends in El Centro and the Region, 1990–2009
Real Income Change Real Income Change 1990 2000 2009 1990–2000 2000–2009 California $75,900 $81,700 $80,100 $5,800 -$1,600 Imperial County $49,300 $54,200 $41,200 $4,900 -$13,000 El Centro $53,400 $56,300 $40,200 $2,900 -$16,100 Imperial (city) $55,500 $66,400 $49,500 $10,900 -$16,900 Brawley $49,800 $53,100 $37,100 $3,300 -$16,000 Calexico $41,900 $49,200 $37,500 $7,300 -$11,700
Data Sources: U.S. Census, Demographics Now, Claritas and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Analysis: Wahlstrom & Associates. Notes: 1990 and 2000 income data are adjusted for the consumer price index to $2009. All data are rounded to hundreds.
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TABLE A-15 El Centro’s Retail Spending Leakages and Capture of Regional Sales, 2010
Sales El Centro Captured Spending Regional Store Category Household From Leakages (3) Capture (4) Spending (1) Households (2)
Apparel Clothing Stores $9,316,000 $108,350,000 $0 $99,034,000 Shoe Stores $2,398,000 $2.920,000 $0 $522,000 General Merchandise Group Discount Stores $9,457,000 $37,460,000 $0 $28,003,000 Department Stores $6,496,000 $28,380,000 $0 $21,884,000 Warehouse Clubs and Superstores $14,553,000 $183,660,000 $0 $169,107,000 Other General Merchandise $2,381,000 $5,410,000 $0 $3,029,000 Drug Stores $9,301,000 $16,800,000 $0 Specialty Retail Group Gifts and Novelties $839,000 $1,110,000 $0 $271,000 Sporting Goods $1,850,000 $2,230,000 $0 $380,000 Florists $150,000 $1,860,000 $0 $1,710,000 Books and Music $1,413,000 $380,000 $1,033,000 $0 Office Supplies $2,143,000 $9,605,000 $0 $7,462,000 Jewelry $1,237,000 $11,850,000 $0 $10,613,000 Used Merchandise $514,000 $1,240,000 $0 $726,000 Misc. Specialty Retail $3,818,000 $6,440,000 $0 $2,622,000
Food Stores & Restaurants Supermarkets, Grocery Stores & Specialty Foods $36,257,000 $76,980,000 $0 $40,723,000 Convenience Stores $1,237,000 $3,170,000 $0 $1,933,000 Liquor Stores $2,548,000 $2,150,000 $398,000 $0 Fast Food ,Restaurants & Bars $27,181,000 $82,020,000 $0 $54,839,000 Home Furnishings Group Furniture and Home Furnishings $7,419,000 $13,430,000 $0 $6,011,000 Household Appliances and Electronics $4,175,000 $10,690,000 $0 $6,515,000
Building Materials Home Centers, Nurseries & Building Materials $4,039,000 $60,825,000 $0 $56,786,000 Paint shops $94,000 $1,785,000 $0 $1,691,000 Automotive Group Auto Parts and Accessories $1,521,000 $9,260,000 $0 $7,739,000 Totals $150,300,000 $678,000,000 $1,400,000 $521,600,000
Data Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics Household Spending Surveys, U.S. Census of Retail Trade, Wahlstrom & Associates. Analysis: Wahlstrom & Associates. Notes: Data does not include sales leakages for motor vehicle dealers and gas stations. Column (1) Measures Total Consumer Spending by Store Type Among Residents of El Centro. Column (2) Measures Actual (Not Taxable) Sales Captured by El Centro’s Commercial Business Establishments. Column (3) Measures Net Spending Leakages by Store Type. Column (4) Measures the Net Amount of Sales Captured by El Centro Businesses among Consumers that live outside of El Centro.
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TABLE A-16 El Centro Household Expenditure Estimates, 2010
Total % Total Consumer Products & Entertainment (30%) $12,200 30% Housing (35%) $14,000 35% Transportation (17%) $6,800 17% Health Care (6%) $2,300 6% Insurance, taxes & private education (12%) $4,900 12% Total $40,200
Data Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Household Consumer Surveys. Analysis: Wahlstrom & Associates. Notes: Data is adjusted to be consistent with El Centro’s average household income; Numbers are rounded to the nearest $100.
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TABLE A-17 Economic Development Potential Within El Centro’s Opportunity Areas, 2010
Undeveloped Potential Commercial Potential Industrial Undeveloped Economic Development Vacant Retail Commercial Space Supported on Space Supported on Industrial Opportunity Areas Space Retail Land Undeveloped Undeveloped Industrial Land [Acres] (1) [Acres] Commercial Land Land (4) (2) (3) (5) Valley Plaza 1 77,000 Shopping Center Former Heilig 2 40,000 Meyers Center 3 Bowling Alley Site Single lot 9,000 El Centro 4 118,000 Shopping Center 5 Former Wal-Mart Store 119,000 El Centro Town Center 6 31 327,000 18 195,000 Phase II 7 Adams Avenue Corridor 4 44,000 Main Street 8 69,000 2 22,000 (Between 8th and 4th) 8th Street Industrial 9 17 185,000 Park Subdivision Highway 86 10 Railroad Properties 11 Danenberg Industrial Site 27 294,000 Industrial Sites South of 12 17 185,000 El Centro Industrial Park 13 Abatti Property 120 871,,000 14 Plaza at Imperial Valley 72,000 Imperial Valley Mall and 15 9,000 Surrounding Pads 16 Imperial Valley Commons 0 85 1,285,000 0 Other 161,000 Total 665,000 122 1,687,000 159 1,730,000
Data Source: City of El Centro and Wahlstrom & Associates. Notes: Column (1) data collected by Wahlstrom & Associates. Columns (2 and 4) data provided by the City of El Centro. Columns (3 and 5) data assume .25 FARs.
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TABLE A-18 Occupied Commercial Space and Sales Earned by Business Establishments within El Centro’s Commercial Districts, 2010
Space Occupied by Retailers, Percent of Percent of Commercial District Sales Earned Restaurants Occupied Retail Space Total Retail Sales & Fast Food Valley Plaza (1) 55,900 2% $10,070,000 1% Imperial Avenue Corridor (2) 1,577,900 45% $381,350,000 54% Adams & 4th Avenue Corridor (3) 547,300 16% $107,350,000 15% Main Street Downtown (4) 216,800 6% $8,930,000 1% Plaza at Imperial Valley (5) 277,600 8% $59,600,000 8% Imperial Valley Mall & Pads (6) 848,200 24% $141,160,000 20% Total 2,932,500 100% $708,460,000
Source: Field inventory completed by Wahlstrom & Associates during the months of October to December 2009; partial data provided by the City of El Centro. Notes: (1) Valley Plaza is El Centro’s first shopping center located at the corner of Imperial Avenue and State Street. (2) Corridor includes all commercial space from the Interstate 8 interchange to the City of Imperial boundary, excluding the Valley Plaza commercial space. (3) Corridor includes all commercial space from the Adams and Imperial Ave. intersections, and along 4th Street on both sides of the Interstate 8 interchanges until the City/County border. (4) Downtown includes Main Street, between State and Broadway, and between 4th and 8th. (5) This new shopping center is located along Dogwood Avenue and includes Best Buy as one of the anchor stores. (6) This area includes the covered mall and the surrounding open-air commercial pads. Data does not include built space used for auto service, repair establishments, office or light industrial buildings partially utilized for retail.; sales estimates measure actual not taxable sales.
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APPENDIX B: REPORT CONTRIBUTORS
CITY OF EL CENTRO 1249 Main Street El Centro, California 92243
Marcella Piedra, Economic Development Director Deborah Harold, Community Development Specialist Norma Villicana, Planning Director Rosie Blankenship, City Planner
WAHLSTROM & ASSOCIATES 2140 Shattuck Avenue #2239 Berkeley, Ca. 94704 (510) 684-6253
Stephen Wahlstrom, Principal Yve Susskind, Associate Claudette Carr, Production Mary Alice Sanderson, Production
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