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Commonwealth of Massachusetts 2013 State Hazard Mitigation Plan Section 14. Severe Weather ................................................................................................................... 14-1 14.1 General Background .................................................................................................................. 14-1 14.1.1 High Winds .................................................................................................................. 14-1 14.1.2 Thunderstorms .............................................................................................................. 14-1 14.1.3 Tornadoes ..................................................................................................................... 14-2 14.1.4 Extreme Temperatures ................................................................................................. 14-3 14.1.5 Drought ........................................................................................................................ 14-8 14.2 Hazard Profile ......................................................................................................................... 14-14 14.2.1 Location...................................................................................................................... 14-14 14.2.2 Previous Occurrences ................................................................................................. 14-23 14.2.3 Severity ...................................................................................................................... 14-33 14.2.4 Warning Time ............................................................................................................ 14-34 14.2.5 Frequency of Occurrences .......................................................................................... 14-35 14.3 Secondary Hazards .................................................................................................................. 14-36 14.4 Climate Change Impacts ......................................................................................................... 14-36 14.5 Exposure .................................................................................................................................. 14-37 14.5.1 Population .................................................................................................................. 14-37 14.5.2 State Facilities ............................................................................................................ 14-37 14.5.3 Critical Facilities ........................................................................................................ 14-40 14.5.4 Economy .................................................................................................................... 14-41 14.6 Vulnerability ........................................................................................................................... 14-42 14.6.1 Population .................................................................................................................. 14-42 14.6.2 State Facilities ............................................................................................................ 14-43 14.6.3 Critical Facilities ........................................................................................................ 14-45 14.6.4 Economy .................................................................................................................... 14-45 Table 14-1. The Enhanced F-Scale .......................................................................................................... 14-3 Table 14-2. Enhanced Fujita Scale Damage Indicators ........................................................................... 14-3 Table 14-3. Heat Index Chart ................................................................................................................... 14-7 Table 14-4. Economic, Environmental and Social Impacts of Drought .................................................. 14-9 Table 14-5. Drought Indices .................................................................................................................. 14-12 Table 14-6. Wind Zones in the U.S. ...................................................................................................... 14-15 Table 14-7. FEMA Severe Weather-Related Disaster Declarations (1954 to 2012) ............................. 14-23 Table 14-8. Tornado Events Between 1950 and 2011 ........................................................................... 14-27 14-1 Commonwealth of Massachusetts 2013 State Hazard Mitigation Plan Table 14-9. Notable Cold Weather Events ............................................................................................ 14-30 Table 14-10. Notable Warm Weather Events ........................................................................................ 14-30 Table 14-11. Estimated Droughts Based on the Massachusetts Standardized Precipitation Index ....... 14-31 Table 14-12. Drought and Extreme Heat Events Declared by USDA ................................................... 14-32 Table 14-13. Number of State-Owned and Leased Buildings in Wind Load Zones ............................. 14-38 Table 14-14. Number of Critical Facilities Located in Each Wind Load Zone ..................................... 14-41 Table 14-15. Number of Critical Facilities in the Tornado Probability Zones ...................................... 14-41 Table 14-16. Estimated Replacement Cost Value of State-Owned and Leased Facilities in Wind Load Zones (Structure Only) .......................................................................................................................... 14-43 Table 14-17. State-Owned and Leased Buildings in Historical Tornado Density Zones ...................... 14-45 Table 14-18. Residential General Building Stock Replacement Cost Value for the Commonwealth ... 14-46 Figure 14-1. Wind Chill Temperature Index and Frostbit Risk ............................................................... 14-5 Figure 14-2. Wind Zones in the U.S. ..................................................................................................... 14-14 Figure 14-3. Annual Average Number of Thunderstorm Days in the U.S. ........................................... 14-16 Figure 14-4. Annual Days Suitable for Thunderstorms with Extreme Winds ....................................... 14-16 Figure 14-5. Annual Average Number of Tornadoes in the U.S., 1991 to 2010 ................................... 14-17 Figure 14-6. Tornado Risk in the U.S. ................................................................................................... 14-18 Figure 14-7. Total Annual Threat of Tornado Events in the U.S., 1980-1999 ...................................... 14-19 Figure 14-8. Climate Divisions of the United States ............................................................................. 14-20 Figure 14-9. Climate Divisions of Massachusetts.................................................................................. 14-21 Figure 14-10. Drought Regions of Massachusetts ................................................................................. 14-22 Figure 14-11. Watersheds with Surface Water Intakes for Drinking Water .......................................... 14-22 Figure 14-12. Number of FEMA Severe Weather-Related Disaster Declarations (1954 to 2012)........ 14-24 Figure 14-13. National Fatalities from Weather Events ........................................................................ 14-33 Figure 14-14. Statewide Drought Levels using SPI Thresholds from 1850 to 2012 ............................. 14-36 Figure 14-15. Severe Weather Probabilities in Warmer Climates ......................................................... 14-37 Figure 14-16. Wind Load Zones in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts ........................................... 14-39 Figure 14-17. Reported Tornado Occurrences from 1950 to 2011 ........................................................ 14-40 14-2 Commonwealth of Massachusetts 2013 State Hazard Mitigation Plan SECTION 14. SEVERE WEATHER 14.1 GENERAL BACKGROUND 14.1.1 High Winds Wind is air in motion relative to surface of the earth. For non-tropical events over land, the NWS issues a Wind Advisory (sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph for at least 1 hour or any gusts 46 to 57 mph) or a High Wind Warning (sustained winds 40+ mph or any gusts 58+ mph). For non-tropical events over water, the NWS issues a small craft advisory (sustained winds 25-33 knots), a gale warning (sustained winds 34-47 knots), a storm warning (sustained winds 48 to 63 knots), or a hurricane force wind warning (sustained winds 64+ knots). For tropical systems, the NWS issues a tropical storm warning for any areas (inland or coastal) that are expecting sustained winds from 39 to 73 mph. A hurricane warning is issued for any areas (inland or coastal) that are expecting sustained winds of 74 mph. Effects from high winds can include downed trees and/or power lines and damage to roofs, windows, etc. High winds can cause scattered power outages. High winds are also a hazard for the boating, shipping, and aviation industry sectors. Massachusetts is susceptible to high wind from several types of weather events: before and after frontal systems, hurricanes and tropical storms, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, and Nor’easters. Sometimes, wind gusts of only 40 to 45 mph can cause scattered power outages
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