The Homelessness Monitor: Northern Ireland 2016
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The homelessness monitor: Northern Ireland 2016 Suzanne Fitzpatrick, Hal Pawson, Glen Bramley, Steve Wilcox and Beth Watts, Institute for Social Policy, Housing and Equalities Research (I-SPHERE), Heriot-Watt University & City Futures Research Centre, University of New South Wales November 2016 The homelessness monitor The homelessness monitor: The homelessness monitor is a longitudinal study providing an independent analysis of the homelessness Northern Ireland 2016 impacts of recent economic and policy developments in Northern Ireland. It considers both the consequences of the post-2007 economic and housing market recession, and the subsequent recovery, Suzanne Fitzpatrick, Hal Pawson, Glen Bramley, Steve Wilcox and Beth Watts, and also the impact of policy changes. Institute for Social Policy, Housing and Equalities Research (I-SPHERE), Heriot-Watt This updated report provides our account of how homelessness stands in Northern Ireland in 2016, or as University & City Futures Research Centre, University of New South Wales close to 2016 as data availability allows. It also highlights emerging trends and forecasts some of the likely future changes, identifying the developments likely to have the most significant impacts on homelessness. November 2016 While this report focuses on Northern Ireland, parallel Homelessness Monitors are being published for other parts of the UK. Crisis head office 66 Commercial Street London E1 6LT Tel: 0300 636 1967 Fax: 0300 636 2012 www.crisis.org.uk © Crisis 2015 ISBN 978-1-78519-032-2 Crisis UK (trading as Crisis). Registered Charity Numbers: E&W1082947, SC040094. Company Number: 4024938 Contents v About Crisis UK Contents Crisis is the national charity for homeless people. We are dedicated to ending homelessness by delivering life-changing services and campaigning for change. Figures and tables vi Acronyms vii Our innovative education, employment, housing and well-being services address individual needs and Executive summary ix help homeless people to transform their lives. We are determined campaigners, working to prevent people from becoming homeless and advocating 1. Introduction 1 solutions informed by research and our direct experience. 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Definition of homelessness 1 About the authors 1.3 Research methods 1 Professor Suzanne Fitzpatrick, Professor Glen Bramley and Dr Beth Watts are all based at the Institute 1.4 Causation and homelessness 2 for Social Policy, Housing and Equalities Research (I-SPHERE) at Heriot-Watt University. Professor Hal 1.5 Structure of report 2 Pawson is based at the City Futures Research Centre, University of New South Wales. Steve Wilcox is an independent housing consultant and former Professor at the Centre for Housing Policy, University of York. 2. Economic factors that may impact on homelessness 3 Acknowledgements 2.1 Introduction 3 This report was commissioned by Crisis and funded by Crisis and the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF), 2.2 Post-2007 UK economic context 3 and our thanks go to Francesca Albanese, Lígia Teixeira and Matthew Downie at Crisis, and Brian Robson, 2.3 The Northern Ireland economy 4 Quintin Oliver and Emma Stone at JRF, for all of their support with this work. We would like to thank the 2.4 Post-2007 housing market downturn and partial recovery 6 Northern Ireland Housing Executive, and especially Joe Frey, for their assistance in accessing relevant 2.5 Household growth and housing market prospects 9 data. We are also extremely grateful to all of the key informants from the statutory and voluntary sector 2.6 The homelessness implications of the economic and housing market context 11 agencies who found time in their busy schedules to help us with this study. 2.7 Key points 14 Disclaimer: All views and any errors contained in this report are the responsibility of the authors. The views expressed should not be assumed to be those of Crisis, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation or of any of the 3. UK Government and Northern Ireland Executive policies potentially key informants who assisted with this work. impacting on homelessness 16 3.1 Introduction 16 3.2 Homelessness policies in Northern Ireland 16 3.3 Housing policies in Northern Ireland 31 3.4 Welfare reforms 38 3.5 Key points 46 Crisis head office 66 Commercial Street 4. Homelessness incidence and trends 49 London E1 6LT Tel: 0300 636 1967 4.1 Introduction 49 Fax: 0300 636 2012 4.2 Rough sleeping 49 www.crisis.org.uk 4.3 Incidence of statutory homelessness 49 © Crisis 2015 4.4 Hidden homelessness 56 ISBN 978-1-78519-032-2 4.5 Key points 65 Crisis UK (trading as Crisis). Registered Charity Numbers: 5. Conclusions 66 E&W1082947, SC040094. Company Number: 4024938 Bibliography 69 vi The homelessness monitor: Northern Ireland 2016 vii Figures and tables Acronyms Chapter 2 CHNI Council for the Homeless Northern Ireland Figure 2.1 Slow UK growth after extended economic downturn 3 DCLG Department for Communities and Local Government Figure 2.2 Northern Ireland recovery lags rest of UK 4 DLA Disability Living Allowance Figure 2.3 Housing market affordability in Northern Ireland 7 DSD Department for Social Development Figure 2.4 Rapid growth of the private rented sector 8 DSS Discretionary Support Scheme Table 2.1 Northern Ireland household and population projections, 2012-2037 10 DUP Democratic Unionist Party Figure 2.5 Mortgage possession court orders ease back 12 DWP Department for Work and Pensions EHS English Housing Survey Chapter 3 EU European Union Figure 3.1 Annual social sector lettings to new tenants per each one thousand households 32 FDA Full Duty Applicant Figure 3.2 Difference between LHA rates and average rents for similar areas 39 GB Great Britain HHSRS Housing health and safety rating system Chapter 4 JRF Joseph Rowntree Foundation Figure 4.1 Northern Ireland statutory homelessness presentations 2004/05-2015/16 50 LFS Labour Force Survey Figure 4.2 Northern Ireland statutory homelessness applications 2010/11-2015/16: LHA Local Housing Allowance breakdown by case assessment outcome 50 LP Lone Parent Figure 4.3 Breakdown of homelessness presentation/assessment decisions 52 NI Northern Ireland Figure 4.4 Statutory homelessness rates across the UK, 2015/16 52 NIHE Northern Ireland Housing Executive Figure 4.5 Statutory homelessness in Northern Ireland compared with Great Britain 53 NISRA Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency Figure 4.6 Full Duty Applicants 2015/16: Breakdown by reason for application 54 OBR Office for Budget Responsibility Figure 4.7 Full Duty Applicants in Northern Ireland: % change in numbers associated ONS Office of National Statistics with specific reasons, 2012/13-2015/16 55 PIP Personal Independence Payment Figure 4.8 Full Duty Applicants 2015/16: breakdown by household type 56 PRS Private Rented Sector Figure 4.9 Homelessness temporary accommodation placements 2009/10-2015/16 57 SAR Shared Accommodation Rate Figure 4.10 Households containing potential concealed households by tenure, SMI Support for Mortgage Interest Northern Ireland 2013-15 58 SP Supporting People Table 4.1 Concealed potential households by household type and poverty, TA Temporary Accommodation Northern Ireland 2013 59 UC Universal Credit Figure 4.11 Concealed potential households in Northern Ireland, 1997-2015 60 UKHLS UK Household Longitudinal Survey Figure 4.12 Household representative rates by selected age groups in Northern Ireland and UK, 1992-2015 61 Table 4.2 Sharing measures for Northern Ireland and UK, 2012 62 Figure 4.13 Households overcrowded by country 2010 and 2013 63 Figure 4.14 Overcrowding by tenure: Northern Ireland and UK 2010 and 2013 63 viii The homelessness monitor: Northern Ireland 2016 Executive summary ix Executive Summary Key points rented accommodation. This likely reflects The Homelessness Monitor series is a the differential impact of welfare reform longitudinal study providing an independent in the two jurisdictions, and possibly also analysis of the homelessness impacts of the fact that, unlike in Great Britain, direct recent economic and policy developments in payment to private landlords was retained Northern Ireland and elsewhere in the UK.1 after the Local Housing Allowance regime This updated report provides an account was introduced. of how homelessness stands in Northern Ireland in 2016, or as close to 2016 as data • Temporary accommodation use has availability allows. been fairly steady in Northern Ireland in recent years. Between 2,800 and 3,000 Key points to emerge from our latest analysis placements are made annually. are as follows. • Statutory homelessness acceptance rates • Statutory homelessness rose significantly are higher in Northern Ireland than in the in Northern Ireland during the early 2000s other UK countries. This is partly because and has remained at historically high levels acceptances have fallen elsewhere since 2005/06. following the implementation of the ‘Housing Options’ model of homelessness • In 2015/16 some 18,600 households prevention. It is expected that the presented as homeless in Northern Ireland. imminent roll-out of a similar model in Of these, 60 per cent – some 11,200 – Northern Ireland (‘Housing Solutions and were judged as ‘Full Duty Applicants’.2 Support’) will see statutory homelessness This represents a 13% increase in rates move closer to those in Great Britain. Full Duty Applicants since 2012/13. Trend over time analysis highlights • The very large proportion (76%) of all ‘accommodation not reasonable’ as Northern Ireland Housing Executive (the the ‘reason for homelessness’ category main social housing provider) lets to exhibiting the largest increase over recent new tenants accounted for by Full Duty years. It is understood that this category Applicants is also partly explained by the relates mainly to older people subject to above local administrative traditions on rehousing having been judged no longer rehousing older people via the statutory able to maintain a family home. If this homelessness route. This is likely to category were excluded from the Full Duty change if policy proposals to reform Applicants total, the recorded increase social housing allocation policies and since 2012/13 would have been 6%.