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Climate Change and Migration in Mexico: a Report

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Climate Change and Migration in Mexico: a Report CLIMATE CHANGE, MIGRATION AND SECURITY Best-Practice Policy and Operational Options for Mexico Elizabeth Deheza and Jorge Mora Royal United Services Institute WHITEHALL REPORt 1-13 First Published January 2013 © The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission of the Royal United Services Institute. Whitehall Report Series ISSN 1750-9432 About the Programme Since 2006, the Climate Change and Security Programme at RUSI has developed relationships with academics, scientists, military personnel, politicians, policy-makers, NGOs and other research institutions in the UK and across Europe, the US, China, India and Latin America through conferencing, roundtables and joint research. This was achieved with the intention of engaging traditional security actors in a dialogue about climate change, the implications for global security scenarios, and what changes it might bring to the security sector in terms of the types of missions required and the equipment used. For more information, see www.rusi.org/climate About RUSI The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) is an independent think tank engaged in cutting edge defence and security research. A unique institution, founded in 1831 by the Duke of Wellington, RUSI embodies nearly two centuries of forward thinking, free discussion and careful reflection on defence and security matters. For more information, please visit: www.rusi.org About Whitehall Reports Whitehall Reports are available as part of a membership package, or individually at £10.00 plus p&p (£1.00 in the UK/£2.00 overseas). Orders should be sent to the Membership Administrator, RUSI Membership Office, Whitehall, London, SW1A 2ET, United Kingdom and cheques made payable to RUSI. Orders can also be made via the website or by e-mail to: membership@rusi. org For more details, please visit: www.rusi.org/publications Printed in Great Britain by Stephen Austin & Sons Ltd for the Royal United Services Institute, Whitehall, London, SW1A 2ET, United Kingdom RUSI is a Registered Charity (No. 210639) Cover image: Tarahumara women and children return by foot to their communities in the mountains after receiving food aid in Laguna de Aboreachi, Mexico, during the worst drought for seventy years. Photo courtesy AP/Dario Lopez-Mills. Whitehall Report 1-13 Climate Change, Migration and Security Best-Practice Policy and Operational Options for Mexico Elizabeth Deheza and Jorge Mora www.rusi.org The views expressed in this paper are the authors’ own, and do not necessarily reflect those of RUSI or any other institutions with which the authors are associated. Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwarded to the series editor: Adrian Johnson, Director of Publications, Royal United Services Institute, Whitehall, London, SW1A 2ET, United Kingdom, or via email to [email protected] Published in 2013 by the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies. Reproduction without the express permission of RUSI is prohibited. About RUSI Publications Director of Publications: Adrian Johnson Publications Manager: Ashlee Godwin Editorial Assistant: Cathy Haenlein Paper or electronic copies of this and other reports are available by contacting [email protected]. Printed in the UK by Stephen Austin and Sons Ltd. Contents Acknowledgements v Advisory Panel vii Preface ix Executive Summary xiii I. Introduction 1 II. An Empirical Model of Climate Change and Migration 25 III. Resource Competition and Security in Mexico 53 IV. Government Responses (2006–12) 69 V. Conclusions 89 About the Authors 91 Appendix A: Definitions 93 Appendix B: Theoretical Considerations 97 Appendix C: Emissions Scenarios and Climate Models 101 Acknowledgements This study was commissioned by the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) through the British Embassy in Mexico, and led by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in close partnership with Carolina Hernandez, Director at the Secretariat of GLOBE (Mexico) and Erubiel Tirado, co-ordinator of National Security Studies at the Universidad Iberoamericana (Mexico City). Firstly, we would like to thank Dr Benjamin Martinez for his valuable contribution in the generation of atmospheric variables. We would also like to thank the National Institute of Ecology (INECC), Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT), Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development, Fisheries and Food (SAGARPA), National Water Commission (CONAGUA), National Migration Institute (INM), Center for Research and National Security (CISEN), Ministry of Foreign Affairs (SRE), Ministry of Communications and Transportation (SCT) and the Presidency for providing some information for this report. The interim report associated with this project benefited from the generous contribution of time by many individuals and organisations, including Professor Boris Graizbord and his colleagues at the El Colegio de Mexico; the Henrich Böll Stiftung in Mexico; Oxfam Mexico; Green Peace; IMCO; the Ministry of Environment of Mexico City; and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. We are also grateful to Dr Adrián Guillermo Aguilar; Victoria Livia Unzueta, Security Adviser for Security and the Armed Forces of the PRD; and Yolanda Alanís (Secretaria Técnica de la Comisión de Medio Ambiente, Senate). For the final report, we would like to thank: ex-Senator Alberto Cárdenas Jiménez, Porfirio Muñoz Ledo, Jorge Castañeda, Fernando Gómez Mont Urueta, Oscar Vásquez Martínez (Secretariat of Environment, Mexico City), Max Alberto Diener Sala (Subsecretario de Asuntos Jurídicos y Derechos Humanos, SEGOB), Federico Patiño (Director of the Banca de Inversión, Delegado Fiduciario de FONADIN, SHCP, Banobras), Dr Ivan Pliego Moreno (Centro de Estudios de las Finanzas Publicas), Jorge A Vega Cárdenas (Secretario Técnico, Comisión de Asuntos Fronterizos Zona Norte, Senate), Vianey M Bautista, (PRD, Senate), Fernanda Sánchez, Guerrero, Alejandro Hope (IMCO), Ismael Reyes Retena Tello, Miguel Angel Cervantes, Ernesto Rodríguez Chávez (Director, Centro de Estudios INM), Dwight Dyer, Javier Tello Diaz, Juan Pablo Calderón (PRI, Chamber of Deputies), Ana Lucia García Briones, Ximena de la Macorra, Dr Javier Riojas, Dr Cuauhtemoc León, Andrea Cerami and Mariana Castillo (CEMDA), Dr Francisco Sales, Efrén Arellano and Salvador Moreno (CESOP), Mario Serafín (Secretario Técnico de Medio Ambiente, Senate), and Juan Luis Ordaz Díaz (BBVA). vi Climate Change, Migration and Security We would also like to acknowledge the support of Dr Tobias Feakin, former Director of the National Security and Resilience Department and Head of the Climate Change and Security Project at RUSI, who was central to the process of designing and editing the report, as well as to Professor Malcolm Chalmers, Research Director at RUSI, for providing much guidance and feedback. Our gratitude and special thanks also go to Ugo Ribet and Lorena Gutierrez for the in-depth research that they conducted for the final report and for their assistance throughout the second phase of the project. Finally, many thanks to Duncan Depledge, Kyle Johnston (both research analysts at RUSI) and Dr Duncan White for reviewing multiple drafts of the manuscript and providing very useful commentary and discussion. Last but by no means least we would like to express our sincere gratitude to Richard Shackleton, Gabriela Rodriguez and Stephen Lysaght at the British Embassy in Mexico for their continued support. Advisory Panel Professor Susan Martin Susan Martin holds the Donald G Herzberg Chair in International Migration and serves as the Director of the Institute for the Study of International Migration in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. Previously, Dr Martin served as the Executive Director of the US Commission on Immigration Reform, established by legislation to advise Congress and the president on US immigration and refugee policy, and Director of Research and Programs at the Refugee Policy Group. She is the author of ‘Climate Change, Migration and Governance’, in Global Governance; ‘Managing Environmentally Induced Migration’, in Frank Laczko and Christine Aghazarm (eds.), Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence; ‘Climate Change, Migration and Development’ in Irena Omelaniuk (ed.), Global Perspectives on Migration and Development; and ‘Environmental Change and Migration: Legal and Political Frameworks’ in Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy (forthcoming). She co-chairs the German Marshall Fund (GMF) Study Team on Climate Change and Migration, composed of experts and policy-makers from the migration, environmental and humanitarian communities. Dr Fernando Aragón-Durand Fernando Aragón-Durand is an international consultant and researcher on risk, disasters, climate-change adaptation and policy for Latin America urban contexts. He holds a PhD in Planning Studies (Development Planning Unit, University College London) and is member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), working group II, ‘Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation’. He is also a fellow of the Leadership for Environment and Development Program (www.lead.org). For more than fifteen years, Dr Aragón-Durand has researched the social construction of disasters and risk at policy and community level. More recently, Dr Aragón-Durand
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