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Guangzhou Retail Q2/2021

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Guangzhou Retail Q2/2021 Guangzhou – July 2021 MARKET IN MINUTES Retail Savills Research Savills team Please contact us for further information RESEARCH James Macdonald Senior Director China +8621 6391 6688 james.macdonald@ savills.com.cn Carlby Xie Director Southern China +8620 3665 4874 carlby.xie@ savills.com.cn CENTRAL MANAGEMENT Market prospects remain strong Alvin Lau Managing Director Guangzhou’s retail market fundamentals continued to improve, supported by Guangzhou the growing population and consumption power. +8620 3665 4888 [email protected] • By the end of 2020, Guangzhou’s permanent population • Link Real Estate Investment Trust (Link REIT) reached 18.7 million, growing by 3.93% per annum over announced to acquire the Happy Valley Shopping Mall the last decade. The average age of the population was 35.4 from Hande Donghui Asset Management Co., Ltd (HDDH) RETAIL years, 3.4 years younger than the national level. for a total consideration of RMB3,204.7 million. Steven Zhang Director • Guangzhou’s retail sales aggregated to RMB423.7 billion Guangzhou by the end of May 2021, an increase of 23.8% year-on-year +8620 3665 4879 (YoY) or 9.1% compared to the same period in 2019. steven.zhang@ “ Despite the stricter COVID-19 savills.com.cn • Two new shopping centres with a combined retail GFA of Savills plc Savills is a leading global real 299,000 sq m debuted, pushing up the citywide total stock prevention and control estate service provider listed on to 6.5 million sq m. the London Stock Exchange. The measures triggered by a company established in 1855, has a rich heritage with unrivalled growth. It is a company that leads • Leasing demand was active in the period from April to May small outbreak at the end of rather than follows, and now has but became subdued as a result of the small outbreak of over 600 offices and associates May and a pause on all F&B throughout the Americas, Europe, the COVID-19 in June, with deal signings slowing down Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East. This report is for general considerably as many site visits had to be postponed. and entertainment retail informative purposes only. It may not be published, reproduced or quoted in part or in whole, nor may operations in several it be used as a basis for any • In Q2/2021, the citywide average vacancy rate of the contract, prospectus, agreement Guangzhou retail property market increased by 0.3 of a or other document without prior neighbourhoods, the overall consent. Whilst every effort has percentage point (ppt) quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to 13.0%. been made to ensure its accuracy, Guangzhou retail property Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its • The citywide rental index edged up 0.2% QoQ, with rents market remained relatively use. The content is strictly averaging at approximately RMB694.8 per sq m per month. copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is stable during Q2/2021.” prohibited without written permission from Savills Research. CARLBY XIE, SAVILLS RESEARCH savills.com.cn/research 1 Retail SUPPLY the OneLink Walk. Notably, many of these GRAPH 1: Total GFA Of New Supply, 2016 to New supply in the secondary prime areas deals were concluded with rentals on par 1H/2021 was abundant as two new shopping centres with the levels in Q1/2021. By the end of 1,000,000 debuted during Q2/2021. These two projects Q2/2021, the citywide average vacancy rate were AEON Mall Xintang in Zengcheng of the Guangzhou retail property market 900,000 and Agile Mall in Huadu. The combined increased by 0.3 of a ppt QoQ and 2.3 ppts 800,000 retail GFA of the new projects amounted to YoY to 13.0%. 700,000 299,000 sq m, pushing the total stock of the Guangzhou retail market to expand to 6.5 RENT 600,000 million sq m by the end of Q2/2021. Market sentiment improved relative to 500,000 Q1/2021, and most landlords, especially sq m those in the Tianhe Road submarket, held 400,000 DEMAND According to the seventh national census, up their rental expectations in spite of 300,000 Guangzhou’s permanent population the small outbreak of COVID-19 in June. 200,000 (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Overall, the citywide rental index edged up Taiwanese people and foreign citizens 0.2% QoQ, with the citywide rents averaging 100,000 residing in the city) grew by 3.93% per approximately RMB694.8 per sq m per 0 annum over the last decade from 2010 to month. 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1H/2021 2020, reaching 18.7 million by the end of Source Savills Research 2020. The average age of the population INVESTMENT was 35.4 years, 3.4 years younger than The investment market witnessed a the national level of 38.8 years. These significant en bloc sales transaction fundamentals have attracted retailers from concluded by an overseas institutional investor in Q2/2021. On 4 June 2021, Link GRAPH 2: Vacancy Rates By Submarket, Q3/2016 many sectors to expand in Guangzhou, to Q2/2021 creating leasing demand for the retail REIT announced to acquire the Happy properties. Valley Shopping Mall from HDDH for a Citywide Tianhe Road Yuexiu total consideration of RMB3,204.7 million. Zhujiang New Town Liwan Haizhu The property is located at No. 36 Machang Baiyun Panyu In Q2/2021, leasing market was active in 30% the period from April to May but turned Road, Tianhe District, Guangzhou. This cold as a result of the small outbreak of was the second retail property that Link 25% the COVID-19 in June. Echoing this, site REIT has purchased in Guangzhou thus far, visits and leasing contract signing activities and the acquisition reflects the continued 20% slowed considerably as most had to be investment interest from a number of 15% postponed. The New Energy Vehicle (NEV) overseas investors and their long-term sector outperformed in terms of leasing commitments of pursuing retail market 10% demand during this quarter, while others prospects in Guangzhou. such as F&B continued to show an unabated 5% appetite for quality retail spaces in response OUTLOOK to the sustainable growth in the catering Despite the disruption of the COVID-19, the 0% market and the upgraded lifestyle among outlook for the Guangzhou retail property Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 many white-collar workers and youngsters. market should remain positive, underpinned 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 by the gradual economic recovery, demographic advantages and improved Source Savills Research Most retailers remained relatively confident in the longer-term business environment consumption power. New supply in Q3/2021 and market prospects and continued to is expected to reach approximately 164,000 search for opportunities to open new sq m, comprising two shopping centres in stores. Headline leasing transactions Tianhe District. Despite that, the average during Q2/2021 include: Acqua Di Parma vacancy rate of the Guangzhou retail GRAPH 3: Rental Indices By Submarket, Q3/2016 to opened a new store at the Parc Central, property market is anticipated to decline, Q2/2021 Qianguo Shabu-shabu Buffet opened its given the high pre-commitment rates thus Citywide Tianhe Road Yuexiu Zhujiang New Town Liwan Haizhu first Guangzhou store at the same shopping far. Baiyun Panyu centre and Tie For Her leased retail space at 200 190 180 170 160 TABLE 1: Future Supply in Q3/2021 150 140 PROJECT SUBMARKET RETAIL AREA (SQ M) Q1/2009=100 130 ICC Mall Tianhe Road 44,000 120 110 M.LIVE (Ph II) International Financial Town 120,000 100 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Source Savills Research Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Note Calculation of rental indices for all submarkets starts from Q1/2009 except for: Zhujiang New Town – Q4/2010; Panyu – Q4/2012 Source Savills Research savills.com.cn/research 2.
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