Planning adaptation to climate change: Tourism community of Tulum 2030
Using future scenarios to assess local adaptation
Arnoldo Matus Kramer D.Phil Candidate
26th of May 2010, Department of International Development, University of Oxford Outline
1. Why using future scenarios in Tulum? 2. Methodological Approach 3. Findings 4. Final remarks Why using future scenarios in Tulum?
• Information on climate change impacts • Spatial expansion of the tourism industry • Rapid pace of coastal urbanization • Exponential growth of population in tourist communities • Use of scenarios to assess adaptation options, priorities and barriers. Climate Change Information and policy in Mexico
1997 2001 2006 2007 2009 2012
Fifth NC
Four National Communications IPCC FAR (2007) • Fifth NC 2012
National Climate Change Strategy Stern Report • Special Climate Change Programme (2009- 2012) States Climate Change Action Programmes • Quintana Roo Hurricane impacts in tourism communities
Hurricane Gilbert (1988) Hurricane Wilma (2005) Hurricane Dean (2007)
24% hotels rooms Most costly natural disaster in history Total destruction of damaged in Cancun. for the Mexican Insurance sector. the cruiser port in Mahahual. +$3,000 Millones USD.
Cancun 1979-2007
1979 2007
Population: 37,190 Population: 572,412 Urban sprawl: 2239 ha Urban sprawl: 18083 ha Boom de la Riviera Maya Playa del Carmen
2000 2008
Población: 55,000 habitantes Población: 135,108 Urbanización: 3780 ha habitantes Urbanización: 5863 ha Two main models of tourism
Source: CEMDA
Source: Proyecto Marti Tulum
2000 2008 Key events: Población: 6,733 habitantes Población: 19,913 habitantes Urbanización: 605 ha Urbanización: 1217 ha •New International Airport of the Riviera Maya by 2012 •National strategy on tourism: 10th most visited country in 2010 Top 5 by 2018 Methodological Approach
Phase I Phase II Phase III
Mapping stakeholders and drivers of change Scenarios planning Deliberative workshop Phase I: Mapping stakeholders and drivers of change
• Field season 1 (6 months) – In-depth interviews – Informal conversations – Passive observation of regional land-use planning meetings – Collection of secondary data Mapping Stakeholders
External stakeholders
Secondary stakeholders International Organisations
IDB National officials Primary stakeholders State officials Local Hotel officials owners and UNDP Developers managers Community leaders Academics Consultants ECLAC Leaders of NGOs Phase II: Scenarios planning
• Field season 2 (3.5 months) – Semi-structure interviews (20 interviews) – Informal conversations – Triangulation – Draft of storylines for two scenarios – Focus groups (2 sessions) – Briefing participants with methods and storylines Phase III: Deliberative Workshop • One-day workshop to assess adaptation options and barriers (2030) – Introduction (methods, climate change information, and storylines) – Stakeholders working in two groups with scenarios A and B • Adaptation options, priorities and barriers for the periods: 2010-2015, 2020 and 2030 – Discussion – Results – Feedback Key findings of using scenarios
Opportunity Challenge • Right participation • Facilitate discussion • Key partners: • Time management – Local authorities in Tulum • Financial and logistical – National Institute of Ecology resources – UNDP Final Remarks
• Alternative to assess local climate change adaptation in a dynamic socioeconomic context
• From participant observer to action-oriented research
• More case studies needed Thanks
[email protected] or [email protected] http://www.cbnex.com/arnoldo-matus-kramer.html/