Planning adaptation to climate change: Tourism community of 2030

Using future scenarios to assess local adaptation

Arnoldo Matus Kramer D.Phil Candidate

26th of May 2010, Department of International Development, University of Oxford Outline

1. Why using future scenarios in Tulum? 2. Methodological Approach 3. Findings 4. Final remarks Why using future scenarios in Tulum?

• Information on climate change impacts • Spatial expansion of the tourism industry • Rapid pace of coastal urbanization • Exponential growth of population in tourist communities • Use of scenarios to assess adaptation options, priorities and barriers. Climate Change Information and policy in Mexico

1997 2001 2006 2007 2009 2012

Fifth NC

Four National Communications IPCC FAR (2007) • Fifth NC 2012

National Climate Change Strategy Stern Report • Special Climate Change Programme (2009- 2012) States Climate Change Action Programmes • Hurricane impacts in tourism communities

Hurricane Gilbert (1988) Hurricane Wilma (2005) Hurricane Dean (2007)

24% hotels rooms Most costly natural disaster in history Total destruction of damaged in Cancun. for the Mexican Insurance sector. the cruiser port in Mahahual. +$3,000 Millones USD.

Cancun 1979-2007

1979 2007

Population: 37,190 Population: 572,412 Urban sprawl: 2239 ha Urban sprawl: 18083 ha Boom de la

2000 2008

Población: 55,000 habitantes Población: 135,108 Urbanización: 3780 ha habitantes Urbanización: 5863 ha Two main models of tourism

Source: CEMDA

Source: Proyecto Marti Tulum

2000 2008 Key events: Población: 6,733 habitantes Población: 19,913 habitantes Urbanización: 605 ha Urbanización: 1217 ha •New International Airport of the Riviera Maya by 2012 •National strategy on tourism: 10th most visited country in 2010 Top 5 by 2018 Methodological Approach

Phase I Phase II Phase III

Mapping stakeholders and drivers of change Scenarios planning Deliberative workshop Phase I: Mapping stakeholders and drivers of change

• Field season 1 (6 months) – In-depth interviews – Informal conversations – Passive observation of regional land-use planning meetings – Collection of secondary data Mapping Stakeholders

External stakeholders

Secondary stakeholders International Organisations

IDB National officials Primary stakeholders State officials Local Hotel officials owners and UNDP Developers managers Community leaders Academics Consultants ECLAC Leaders of NGOs Phase II: Scenarios planning

• Field season 2 (3.5 months) – Semi-structure interviews (20 interviews) – Informal conversations – Triangulation – Draft of storylines for two scenarios – Focus groups (2 sessions) – Briefing participants with methods and storylines Phase III: Deliberative Workshop • One-day workshop to assess adaptation options and barriers (2030) – Introduction (methods, climate change information, and storylines) – Stakeholders working in two groups with scenarios A and B • Adaptation options, priorities and barriers for the periods: 2010-2015, 2020 and 2030 – Discussion – Results – Feedback Key findings of using scenarios

Opportunity Challenge • Right participation • Facilitate discussion • Key partners: • Time management – Local authorities in Tulum • Financial and logistical – National Institute of Ecology resources – UNDP Final Remarks

• Alternative to assess local climate change adaptation in a dynamic socioeconomic context

• From participant observer to action-oriented research

• More case studies needed Thanks

[email protected] or [email protected] http://www.cbnex.com/arnoldo-matus-kramer.html/