VIEW POINT
ECONOMIC CYCLE REFRESH FOR BANKS UNDERSTANDING IMPACT, RISKS, AND SURVIVAL STRATEGIES
“What goes up must come down.” - Isaac Newton Throughout the history of economics, periodical ups and downs define the very nature of it. Behind revolving peaks and valleys, there is balancing act of supply and demand forever. Study of economic indicators often recognizes certain patterns of this cyclical nature of business of which Economic cycle is one of the most influential patterns. In a sinusoidal curve, between rise and fall of credit, this cycle depicts a true state of economics. In this study, nature of economic cycle is explained by taking note of historical evidences and current economic indicators. Based on the analysis further efforts has been made to determine if current economy is nearing the end of current cycle. Acknowledgements
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Introduction
In the third decade of eighteenth century, classical economics started recognizing the fact, that economic activities are periodic in nature. From middle of eighteenth century many notable economists started studying this pattern and by 1950, modern economics had completely convinced itself on the importance of economic cycles on everything around.
Banking and financial institutions are the driving institutions of global economy and thus are the most sensitive towards the change of economic cycles.
Without deep understanding of economic cycle, banks cannot sustain, operate and become profitable. But this understanding is nearing impossible to perfectly master, as there are thousands of factors and variables in economics - and considering complex interrelations and ever changing nature of those, no amount of efforts will be enough.
But it is absolutely necessary to have a good understanding of the economic cycle and there is no escaping from it.
Hence, in this paper, we have tried to explain basics of economic cycle to the reader, and then based on economic data, tried to understand the current phase in the cycle. This understanding is further used to determine the impact of current cycle on the banking industry and the best strategies to deal with the same.
External Document © 2018 Infosys Limited Phases of economic prosperity are known as expansions and phases of economic downtrend are called recessions/depressions. The combination of these two phases of expansions and recessions is called the business cycle.
Three phases of economic cycle are:
A. Recovery Phase: This phase comes after a recession where evaluation is at the cheapest level where most of the companies are involved in proving their credit profile. What Is an Economic Cycle? depressions. The combination of these two with caution. Deterioration phase can phases of expansions and recessions is actually last for years and end of the Economic cycleB. Expansion Phase: Where we see increased borrowing and lending, means expansion and with increment in underlying called the business cycle. phase depends on the combination of contraction of borrowingasset value. and lending factors like weakening economy and between companies and investors. C. Deterioration Phase: Today we are in this phase. It is seen thaThree phases of economic cycle are: t we are through the best of the recession, steps taken by central banks, Significant swingscycles and proceeding with caution. Deterioration phase can act in economic parameters ually last for years and end of etc. 1. Recovery Phase: This phase comes are observed naturallythe phase depends on the combination of factors like weakening in The United economy and recession, steps after a recession where evaluation is at Also the question arises as to how investors States and all othertaken by central banks, etc. modern industrial the cheapest level where most of the should be positioning their portfolios economies, though their duration may companies are involved in proving their vary. During peak, industries are growing in this environment. It is better suited credit profile. and unemployment is lower; but in few for focusing on capital preservation and years duringAlso the question arises as to h phase of contraction, most ow investors should be position2. Expansion Phase: Where weing their portfolios in this environment. It see generating a reasonable return rather than industriesis better are not suited operating for well focusing with high on capital increased preservation borrowing and and gener lending,ating with a reasonable trying return to maximize rather earnings. than trying to maximize earnings. levels of unemployment. increment in underlying asset value. Below diagram shows the phases of PhasesBelow of economic diagram prosperity shows are the known phases of 3. economic Deterioration cycle. Phase: This Today diagram we areis in just for economic depiction cycle. and This does diagram not is just for as expansionscorrespond to any data. and phases of economic this phase. It is seen that we are through depiction and does not correspond to any downtrend are called recessions/ the best of the cycles and proceeding data. The Economic Cycle 1.2 PEAK PEAK
1.0 R E A 0.8 L O 0.6 U T 0.4 P U T 0.2 TROUGH TROUGH TROUGH
0.0 year1 year2 year3 year4 year5 year6 year7 year8 year9 year10 year11 year12
Figure 1: Theoretical depiction of economic cycle
production. So more the man hours more activates increase. Leading indicators which willFigure 1: Theoretical depi ction of economic cycle is the manufacturing and more is the explain economic cycle? 4. New orders for plant and equipment: demand indicating the positive trend in As new orders come in as per increased There are numerous factors across the the economy. demand during time of expansion,5 more globe, which are used quantatively and 2. New claims for unemployment insurance: plants and equipment’s are required. An methodically in different studies for The more the claims indicate the slowness increase in plant and equipment purchase determining the economical state. In the in the economy, as unemployment by factories, generates more employment, below section we are explaining few of the increases. An increase in unemployment more supply and more industrial lending. most important factors in the context of this rate is usually not a good sign of economic 5. Building permits for private houses: More paper. health. new houses again increases employment 3. Consumer spending: With increased for so many indirect jobs and also more Leading Indicators: consumer spending, new orders come in to spending by customers also indicate 1. Hours of production workers in manufacturing industry that in turn creates positive flow in the economy. Also to note, manufacturing: Increase in hours more number of jobs. This is a sign of a real estate has been a great contributor to indicates more work and more good economic state as positive economic GDP of the country.
External Document © 2018 Infosys Limited 6. Fraction of companies reporting increasing, that generates opportunity increasing inflation and lower slower deliveries: When a sector or for business to greater revenue and purchasing power. industry reports slower deliveries for profit margin, along with increases risk 9. Money growth rate: It indicates the few consecutive quarters, that leaves a appetite for fresh investments. grim outlook on the economic growth inflation in the economy. Inflation prospect. Eventually if this trend 8. Change in commodity prices: This is zero if money supply is equal to continues, slowness in the economy indicates the inflation in the market money demand. Positive inflation is a may lead to a breakdown and recession and thus plays its part in deciding the good sign for economies, but only up period starts. spending power of consumers in the to a threshold. Less inflation denotes
7. Index of consumer confidence: This is economy. For example, price of oil and poor return on capital investments, a very important point indicating the gas sector has direct impact in profit and very high inflation denotes investing power of consumer into the margins of any large industry, rise in weakness in supply demand system market. When consumer confidence is edible commodities points towards underlying.
Below figure can summarize the co relations and impacts on the current economic cycle of the above indicators.
Increased Increasing Production "Increased supply Increased man hours manufacturing UPTREND hour in manufacturing and demand " output "less consumer Increasing claims for more no of insurance Increased spending , and DOWNTREND unemployment insurance claims unemployment demand" Increasing consumer fresh set of more plants and more UPTREND spending manufacturing orders equipments employment Increasing orders for plant more investment Increased demand more employment UPTREND and equipment and spending Increasing building increased increased lending increased GDP UPTREND permits for private houses employment Increasing companies Lower supply and lower purchasing lower wages DOWNTREND reporting slower deliveries demand power Increasing Index of more investment more business higher consumption UPTREND consumer confidence and risk appetite growth Increasing commodity lesser purchasing less profit by Higher inflation DOWNTREND prices power industry Increasing money growth Higher investment Higher healthy increased supply UPTREND rate and lending inflation and demand
Figure 2: Incident indicators and co relations with economic cycle
Co - Incident indicators:
1. Nonagricultural employment: This indicates the increase of jobs in the market depending on the demand and thus one of the indicators.
2. Index of industrial production: Its increase shows the positive trend in the economy and decrease marks towards the slowing of the economy.
3. Personal income: This greatly varies depending on the market and plays a vital role in spending trend in the economy.
4. Manufacturing and trade sales: More sales in the manufacturing and increase in supply is the positive hint of a good economy.
External Document © 2018 Infosys Limited When did economic cycle refresh happen last time?
Lets have a look at below data and then the graph, which can show the history of economic cycle refresh. Duration, bust to Duration, boom to Duration, bust to boom month bust month Duration, boom to bust boom boom bust Feb-45 Oct-45 8M 80M 88M 93M Nov-48 Oct-49 11M 37M 45M 48M Jul-53 May-54 10M 45M 56M 55M Aug-57 Apr-58 8M 39M 49M 47M Apr-60 Feb-61 10M 24M 32M 34M Dec-69 Nov-70 11M 106M 116M 117M Nov-73 Mar-75 16M 36M 47M 52M Jan-80 Jul-80 6M 58M 74M 64M Jul-81 Nov-82 16M 12M 18M 28M Jul-90 Mar-91 8M 92M 108M 100M Mar-01 Nov-01 8M 120M 128M 128M Dec-07 Jun-09 18M 73M 81M 91M
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
So if below table data are averaged, we get into below numbers.
Duration, boom to bust Duration, bust to boom Duration, boom to boom Duration, bust to bust From Year 1945 till year 2009 (11 cycles) 11.1M 58.4M 68.5M 69.5M
So this tells us, average recession period is of 11 months or 1 year roughly . but recovery is a longer period of around 5 years.
Why we believe economic from some leading sources below. basis since 1854, current phase is already overdue for another recession. cycle refresh could happen 1. As per CNBC, at present, after recovering anytime soon? from recession of 2008-2009, the Between 1854 to 1919, there were total current economic uptrend will age 16 completed economic cycles, and Loan performance or flow of credit greatly around on its eighth year and will be the average recession period is about denotes the range for phases of economic on its 96 months’ age. As the historical 22 months, and the average economic expansion and recession. In positive probability suggests, in any particular expansion is about 27 months. scenarios, lenders provide more loans year, probability of recession is around to wider spread of marginal borrowers Between 1919 to 1945, there were total 6 15 percent. So based on the maturity and but when loan quality starts to degrade, cycles, recessions period averaged of 18 historical average, it can be predicted a lenders become more protective, which months and expansions averaged for 35 50 % chance of recession for the coming often accelerates an economic recession. months. And the period between 1945 1 year and 100 % in the coming two Therefore, an understanding of the to 2001 we saw 10 cycles, recessions years. economic cycle is paramount for banks. lasted an average of 10 months, and Reference:https://www.cnbc. expansions an average of 57 months. As the global economy is already in its 7th com/2017/06/27/op-ed-a-history-of- year of expansion following the traumatic So recessions are getting shorter and economic-cycles-suggests-a-recession- great recession episode in 2008-2009 and expansion periods longer over time. is-near.html as default rates have already started to The level of total debt is higher in climb, it is worth examining whether now 2. As per Huffington post, National Bureau aggregate and relative to output, is the appropriate time for a fresh cycle. of Economic Research data suggests, reflecting higher leverage ratios. World Let’s collaborate some views regarding this which tracks recessions on a monthly
External Document © 2018 Infosys Limited debt to GDP has swollen from an rates raise, thus increasing the inflation lend. already record high of 269% in 2007 expectation. The inflation expectation Reference:https: //www.economicshelp. to nearly 300% according to McKinsey, comprises of parameters like household org/blog/571/unemployment/trade-off- with average world GDP also lower by expectation, consumption etc. When between-unemployment-and-inflation/ nearly 1% compared to the last decade, an economy experiences inflation, the therefore reducing debt repayment Central Bank will raise interest rates. https://qrius.com/interest-rates-and- capacity. Also past due debts were not Higher interest rates will reduce consumer gdp-growth-rate/ resolved completely during the last spending and investment leading to Based on the historical data, and current cycle, leaving many organizations with lower aggregate demand which slows state of affairs, we are predicting US an unsustainably high level of debt. down the growth percentage and impacts economy may start to show sign of the GDP of the economy significantly. Reference:https: //www.huffingtonpost. recession period in coming 12 to 20 However, if there is a decline in Real GDP, com/daniel-wagner/history-tells-us-that- months. firms will employ fewer workers leading 201_b_7763774.html to a rise in unemployment. This concerns As an illustration, below figure depicts 3. As per Qrius website and econominshelp the general economy as it fears another unemployment rate of US economy in past website, this would further lead to credit crunch rise; with the banks at mercy years. Trough phases are indicated by blue slower investments and higher interest of higher borrowing rates and reticent to downward arrow.
US Unemployment - Inflation 12
10 10 10 10 10
8 8 8 8 7 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 Percent 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
2
0
Year Figure 3: US annual employment rate from 1948 till 2017
External Document © 2018 Infosys Limited Below graph shows slowed down growth parameters for business investment on US economics
Composition of Growth in Real Business Fixed Investment(BFI) 100%
80% 8.44 4.91
60% 0.71 8.44 4.94 40% 2.64 0.11 1.27 20% 1.77 7.52 3.70 1.54 0% 0.32 2010-2011 -20% -2.08 2012-2014 -2.82 -40% 2015 YEAR
percenT,aVERAGE aNNUAL rATE -60% -1.05 2016:Q1-Q3 -80% Equipment Structures Intellectual Property Products Total Business Fixed Investment
Figure 4: US Industry Investment growth composition
When will things be back to In average, a typical complete economic If we have to take an educated guess, normal after refresh? cycle has taken about 58 months to refresh recovery shall take around 70 to 80 months. since 1945. That means somewhere around 2026 -2027. Earlier we have determined based on This point of time, based on the current Below are some factors that may lead to historical data, that average recession state of economy and different global delayed recovery from economic cycles. period is of 11 months to 1 year however factors, our guess recovery phase will Growth is slowing down in large economies recovery is a longer period of around 5 take longer than 5 years to recover from Year on Year. Let’s look at below figure on years. upcoming economic cycle refresh. IMF growth forecast. IMF World Real GDP Growth Forecast,2010-2021 30.0
3.1 3.6 25.0 3.4 3.6
20.0 3.3 4.0
0.0 4.2 3.8 0.0 3.3 15.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 3.9 0.0 3.6 0.05.4 3.5 0.0 0.0 PERCENT cHANGE yEAR OVER yEAR 10.0 4.1 4.7 4.1 4.0
5.5 4.9 0.04.1 0.04.0 5.0 3.5 3.4
0.000.0.000.0.000.0.0 0.0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 yEAR
Actual Growth Forecast Sept 2011 Forecast Oct 2013 Forecast Oct 2012 Forecast Oct 2014 Forecast Oct 2015 Forecast Oct 2016 Figure 5: IMF World growth forecast 2010- 2022
External Document © 2018 Infosys Limited Why economic cycle refresh As a result, the banks refuse to lend tightening by the banks. The effect of is important to banks? to marginal customers and demand credit tightening plus lower demand more collateral to reduce the cost of during the downtime at US commercial Impact on bank earnings: borrowing for banks. This increases banks is illustrated in Figure 5. The economic cycle refresh has significant the cost to the consumers in the form impact on the banking industry. During of increased interest rates. This impact The growth rate of industrial and the economic cycle downturn, the lending could be seen when in July 1990 ,United commercial loans tends to drop when and the bank earnings drops as higher States entered recession, that lasted for 8 economy enters recession, while lending interest rates are charged on the loans. months till March 1991. There was credit rate increases.
US Average majority prime rate charged by banks 12.0
10.9
10.0 10.0
9.3 9.2 8.8 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.1
7.2 6.9 6.3 6.2 6.0 6.0
5.1 4.7 4.3 Prime interest rate 4.0 4.1 3.5
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
2.0
0.0
Year Figure 6: US bank prime lending rate 1986 to 2016 Figure 6: US bank prime lending rate 1986 to 2016
Impact on ROE of Banking sector: During economic cycle refresh, banks primarily response by adjusting credit standards for the new loans. But the impaired credit quality of already existing loans remains primary concern as this impacts the return on equity (ROE) in the banking sector.
Figure 6 illustrates return on equity for banks in United States. ROE is a commonly used accounting term. This measures the performance of banks against industry earnings with respect to invested capital. ROE trend can be seen downwards throughout the decade of the 80s in US. Bank earnings drop, additionally, bank capital positions had reduced to the alarming level. In fact, few banks had difficulty managing fresh capital for fresh loans, even after the economic recovery from recession.
Also when banks profitability and growth are reduced, it leads to a chain effect across industry and consumers. When consumers demand less, and industries produce less, that in turn affect banks by bringing a deadlock situation.
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Impact on ROE of banking sector: Figure 6 illustrates return on equity for banks had difficulty managing fresh capital banks in United States. ROE is a commonly for fresh loans, even after the economic During economic cycle refresh, banks used accounting term. This measures the recovery from recession. primarily response by adjusting credit performance of banks against industry Also when banks profitability and growth standards for the new loans. But the earnings with respect to invested capital. ROE are reduced, it leads to a chain effect across impaired credit quality of already existing trend can be seen downwards throughout industry and consumers. When consumers loans remains primary concern as this the decade of the 80s in US. Bank earnings demand less, and industries produce less, impacts the return on equity (ROE) in the drop, additionally, bank capital positions had that in turn affect banks by bringing a banking sector. reduced to the alarming level. In fact, few deadlock situation.
Retun on Equity for US banks 18.0
15.6 16.0 15.9 15.0 15.7 15.3 14.8 14.6 14.0 14.8 14.8 14.7 14.9 13.2 13.5 14.1 12.0 12.3 11.9 13.6 11.4 11.3 10.8 10.0 9.8 9.6 9.2 9.0 8.8 9.0 ROE 8.0 7.9 8.8
6.0 5.4 4.5 4.0
2.0 1.8
0.6 0.0
Year Figure 7: US bank ROE 1985 to 2016 Figure 7: US bank ROE 1985 to 2016 Competitive environment for banks drastically when deregulation happened risk exposure by a great extent. Now in affected: order to cover this risk, banks need more Competitive environment for banks affected: on bank Interest rates, some prohibitory regulations were imposed over banking capital, but supply is short. Based on the swing of economic activities, organizations to expand over other states bankingBased on the swing of economic activities, banking industry whi industry which operates with ch operates with the larger trend, feels Because of this short supply, during the largerthe change in its operating environment. Those who are well pos trend, feels the change in its weakened the growth prospect. itioned as per the economical trend, recession capital is more expensive even operatinghas better asset qualities, and those who refrains from proving environment. Those who are As a double trouble, during that phase bad credit to its customers, possess a for banks. Now for weaker institutions, well positionedbetter chance to survive a downfall than the weaker ones. as per the economical capital markets drawn many investors it is almost impossible to fulfil its capital trend, has better asset qualities, and those requirements. This would infringe The crunch in banking and financial sector during period of 198towards it from banks, by proving0s and 2008’s, left many major players in better who refrainsthe sector from proving in a very bad credit poor to positio n to safety survive margin further with promise recession of better. As returns. an example, deadlock one conditions can observe in which the is famously its customers, possess a better chance to known as stagflation, which would in turn competitive environment for banks In altered below figure drastically 7, we can when see the dere wideninggulation happened on bank Interest survive a downfall than the weaker ones. intensify the recession. It’s a double edged rates, some prohibitory regulations gap were between imposed personal over income banking and banks organizations to expand over other sword, making recession a painful period The crunchstates weakened the growth prospect. in banking and financial sector income during phase of recession., during for banks. during period of 1980s and 2008’s, left As a double trouble, during that phase capital markets drawn ma1980 and 1990s. ny investors towards it from banks, by many major players in the sector in a very In below figure 7, we can see the proving better safety margin with promise of better returns. Deterioration of bank assets: poor position to survive further recession. detoriation of asset quality and banking As anIn example, below one figure can observe 7, we the can see the widening During recession, gap between asset quality personal of banks’ is income income and banks during period income of recession, during in competitivephase of recession., during 1980 and 1990s. environment for banks altered subjected to deterioration, which increases 1980’S and 1990’S.
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Housing and Personal Income 1.60 1.39 1.33 1.40 1.25 1.25 1.20 1.00 1.02 1.00 0.78 0.80 0.59 0.62 0.60 0.50 0.52 0.50
0.40
0.20
0.00 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Year Value of household real estate assets/Personal Income Household Total Liabilities/Personal Income
Figure 8: Asset decrement vs personal income 1970 to 1995
Why information technology Other than crisis management during adopted in banks strategy as it allows is important for banks to downtime, Information technology can banks’ profits to be stable during the also help during phases on boom, by period of volatility. The banks should not handle economic cycle identifying and capitalizing the newly only focus on net interest income but refresh? available market opportunities. Banks who it must explore opportunities for non- can position themselves in a safer stand, interest income. Banking industry is the sector which is during period of prosperity, will have most influenced by the advancement of Other than traditional financial better leverage during phases of recession. information Technology. intermediation, Banks can opt for new sources of revenues, like capital and This is often regarded as an investment and money market services, providing trading also as a cost by the banks. But it has been How should banks prepare platforms, financial operations, etc. The seen times and again that its possibly the themselves for the cyclical ratio between non-interest income and best strategic directions for the financial interest based income (a traditional bank services industry during the period of volatility? business of deposits and lending) should downturn. The classical theory of economics indicates improve sharply. that risk increases proportionately with IT can pre-warn regulators of another the fall, during economic cycle downtrend This adaptation of revenue diversification credit crisis, it can find underlying asset and vice versa. Poor economic conditions can result into a smoothing effect on qualities, cash management gaps, trends hamper loan portfolio quality, generate profitability. This also helps to reduce risk in market, and perform accurate statistical substantial credit losses, which results exposure by controlling bank lending analysis of banks health. into reduction of bank’s profits. Historical during growth phase of the business cycle Information technology can be used to findings indicate that bank profitability is thus also reducing the impact of credit build an information system that can a very important measurement of financial crunches in the recession time. stream real time market data, which health. Below are the few measures banks Provisioning policy: on the other hand also can identify can adopt to be better prepared for the patterns, otherwise not visible in manual credit crisis. loan provisions and capital, are closely observations. usage of analytics, usage of related to each other. A strong and Revenue diversification by banks: big data, and other technology adoptions balanced provisioning policy should can really make the difference in bank’s Revenue diversification is in simple term, form the foundation of regulations on capability to outstand a bad economic means banks should have multiple sources capital requirements. The banks must phases, better than its competitors. for income generation. This should be investigate the present links between loan
External Document © 2018 Infosys Limited provisioning methods and the business generating less credit opportunities when risk. They must build up loan loss reserves cycle. Also the link between capital the banks need them most. Hence an in good times to balance against the credit requirements and the current state of alternate approach is required to treat crunch in bad times. economic cycle to be studied carefully. this practice as a risk and measures to be Though it’s been enforced by regulatory The favorable conditions during taken to manage the financial imbalances and governing bodies that the banks should economic expansion often results into that increase the impact of a recession. maintain minimum loan loss reserves and an unpleasant increase in credit lending According to counter cyclical view, some capital stock which act as buffers to as creditworthiness of a loan seeker is provisions should be positively synced with ensure bank’s sustainable solvency. This done less diligently. On the contrary this the business cycle, and banks should asses reserve shields banks against, expected and reverses during the economic fall, thus and act on the cyclical pattern of credit unexpected losses during credit crunch.
Conclusion Banking industry is the sector which is most influenced by the advancement of information Technology.
This is often regarded as an investment and also as a cost by the banks. But it has been seen times and again that its possibly the best strategic directions for the financial services industry during the period of downturn.
IT can pre-warn regulators of another credit crisis, it can find underlying asset qualities, cash management gaps, trends in market, and perform accurate statistical analysis of banks health.
Information technology can be used to build an information system that can stream real time market data, which on the other hand also can identify patterns, otherwise not visible in manual observations. usage of analytics, usage of big data, and other technology adoptions can really make the difference in bank’s capability to outstand a bad economic phases, better than its competitors.
External Document © 2018 Infosys Limited About the Authors
Karunesh Mohan nce Practice, Financial Services Domain Consulting Group, Infosys Principal Consultant, SAP Practice, Infosys Karunesh Mohan holds a full time PGDBM in Finance from Birla Institute of Management and Executive education program in Strategic Management from IIM, Kozhikode. Karunesh is part of DCG group in Infosys with 19 years of experience working with banks as a banker and IT process and domain expert, consulting for Top global banking clients in US, UK, Australia, Singapore and Japan geographies. Karunesh is also a certified trainer on banking domain and has trained 2000+ IT resources across the globe.
Debmalya Das Barman nce Practice, Financial Services Domain Consulting Group, Infosys Principal Consultant, SAP Practice, Infosys Debmalya Das Barman holds a bachelor degree in computer engineering and masters in Service excellence. He is part of DCG banking group in Infosys. He has spent over 8+ years in IT industry working with major international Banks. Debmalya is passionate about computing, economics, and stock market investing.
Chaitanya Tallam nce Practice, Financial Services Domain Consulting Group, Infosys Principal Consultant, SAP Practice, Infosys Chaitanya Tallam holds a bachelor degree in computer science, and has over 7+ years of experience in IT industry. He is part of DCG banking group in Infosys. He has BA and testing experience in BFSI domain. He is part of FSDCG group and has interest in payments and cash management areas.
Deepshikha Sharma nce Practice, Financial Services Domain Consulting Group, Infosys Principal Consultant, SAP Practice, Infosys Deepshikha Sharma has done a fulltime PGPM from The Great Lakes Institute of Management, Chennai and B.E from Punjab University with 3.5 years of experience in the areas of banking, business analytics, business intelligence, business analysis and data management.
References http://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/10203-5-signs-the-credit-cycle-is-coming-to-an-end http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/credit-cycle.asp https://www.bea.gov/papers/pdf/US_Cyclical_Indicators_Moscow.pdf https://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/scribd/?item_id=535300&filepath=/files/docs/publications/ERP/2017_erp.pdf https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/27/op-ed-a-history-of-economic-cycles-suggests-a-recession-is-near.html http://www.huffingtonpost.com/daniel-wagner/history-tells-us-that-201_b_7763774.html http://www.nber.org/cycles.html http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/BusinessCycles.html
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