The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025
BATTERIES 2015 Christophe PILLOT Nice, France, Director, AVICENNE ENERGY October 6, 2015
Presentation Outline • The rechargeable battery market in 2014 • The Li-ion battery value chain • Li-ion battery material market Christophe PILLOT • Forecasts & conclusions + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] AGENDA
The market in 2014 by technology, applications & battery suppliers Li-ion battery value chain The Rechargeable Raw materials market Battery Market and Main Trends Supplier / customer relationship 2014-2025 Raw material cost New entrants strategy Raw material road map 2000-2030 xEV market in 2014 xEV forecasts up to 2025 BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 Nice, FRANCE Could Lithium ion replace lead acid for industrial applications? Rechargeable battery market forecasts up to 2025
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 2 AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS
HEV powered by Lithium ion battery EV sold, in million units, worldwide, forecasts from 2008 to 2014 2010 - 2020
5 2,5 IIT 2007 IIT (MARCH 2011)
The Rechargeable Battery Market and DEUTSCHE BANK (2012) 2 4 Main Trends IIT 2008
2014-2025
1,5 IIT 2009 3 IIT (MARCH 2010)
IIT 2010 1 2
ROLAND BERGER (2011) Million Million HEV poweredLIB by
BATTERIES 2015 REALITY
October 6, 2015 ROLAND BERGER (2012) Number of EV sold worldwide (Million) worldwide sold EV of Number Nice, FRANCE 0,5 AVICENNE 2007 1 AVICENNE 2007-2012
AAB (2012)
0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2015 2020 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011 [email protected] 3 THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC
Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) Portable PC sold per Year (Million)
2000 500
Li-ion 400 Li-ion
year 1500 Year
/ / NiMH / 300 230 M
1000 Tablets Units
The Rechargeable Units 200 Battery Market and 500 170 M Main Trends 100 Million Million Portable 2014-2025 Million PCs 0 0 2000 2014 2000 2014
Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh) 120000
3
100000 2,5 Year 80000 2 BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 60000 1,5
Nice, FRANCE $/Wh 40000 1 0,5 Tons of cathode / / cathode of Tons 20000
0 0 2000 2014 2000 2014 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2015 [email protected] 4 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2015 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry investments
70 000
The Rechargeable Battery Market and 60 000 Main Trends 2014-2025 50 000 Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
40 000 Li-ion
MWh 30 000 NiMH
BATTERIES 2015 20 000 NiCD October 6, 2015 Nice, FRANCE 10 000
0 1990 2000 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015 2015: Estimations [email protected] 5 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2015 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share) 400 000 450 000
The Rechargeable 350 000 400 000 Battery Market and Main Trends 350 000 300 000 2014-2025 Others (Flow battery, 300 000 250 000 NAS, …)
Li-ion
250 000
200 000 MWh MWh NiMH 200 000 150 000 NiCD 150 000
BATTERIES 2015 100 000 October 6, 2015 Lead Acid 100 000 Nice, FRANCE 50 000 50 000
0 0
1990 2000 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015
1990 2000 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015 2015: Estimations [email protected] 6 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2015 60 BILLION US$ in 2014 – Pack level1 5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2014) 70 70
60 60 Others (Flow The Rechargeable battery, NAS, …) OTHERS 50 50
Battery Market and Li-ion AUTOMOTIVE
Main Trends 40 40 INDUSTRIAL 2014-2025 NiMH 30 E-BIKES
30 US$ Billion Billion US $ US Billion POWER TOOLS NiCD 20 20 PORTABLE Lead Acid SLI 10 10
0 0
1990 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015
1990 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 BATTERIES 2015 SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc… October 6, 2015 PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals, Nice, FRANCE POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools INDUSTRIAL • MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others • STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear, AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen Christophe PILLOT concentrators + 33 1 47 78 46 00 1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included [email protected] Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015 2015: Estimations 7
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET IN 2014: US $ 60 BILLION Battery market in 2014 (M$)
Others 70 000 18 000 SLI Other Applications Automotive 16 000 Marine Portable 60 000 The Rechargeable Medical devices Battery Market and Other Applications Main Trends Marine 14 000 Wheelchair 2014-2025 Medical devices 50 000 Medical Cart Wheelchair SLI 12 000 Medical Cart Other Stationary
Other Stationary 40 000 Seismic 10 000 Seismic US $ 20 ESS ESS Automotive Billion for 8 000 Other Stand-by 30 000 “other” Other Stand-by applications UPS UPS Portable BATTERIES 2015 Telecom 6 000 Telecom October 6, 2015 Other Motive 20 000 Nice, FRANCE Forklift Other Motive 4 000 Power Tools Forklift E-Bikes 10 000 2 000 Power Tools
E-Bikes Christophe PILLOT 0 0 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Lead Acid LIB [email protected] 1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included 8 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015
WORLDWIDE BATTERY SALES BY CHEMISTRY, UNITS, 1995-2015 The worldwide rechargeable battery Which cell are we talking about? market, Million cells, 1995-2015
9000
8000 The Rechargeable Battery Market and 7000 Main Trends 2014-2025
6000
5000
4000 Front Edge Technology, Inc Million cells Million
3000
2000 BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 1000 Nice, FRANCE
0
2011 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2013 2015
NiCd NiMH Li-ion Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 2015: estimation data GS Yuasa International / Lithium Energy Japan [email protected] 9 WORLDWIDE BATTERY SALES BY CHEMISTRY, MWH, 1995-2015 The worldwide rechargeable battery market, in volume, MWh, 1995-2015 80 000 2004-2014(CAGR): +17% The Rechargeable 70 000 NiCd: -2% per year Battery Market and NiMH: +6 per year Main Trends 2014-2025 60 000 Li-ion: +22% per year
50 000
Li-ion 40 000
MWh NiMH 30 000 NiCd
BATTERIES 2015 20 000 October 6, 2015 Nice, FRANCE 10 000
-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 2015: estimation data [email protected] 10 WORLDWIDE BATTERY SALES BY CHEMISTRY, M$, 1995-2015 The worldwide rechargeable battery market, in value, M$, 1995-2015 (1) 25 000 2004 – 2014 CAGR):+12% The Rechargeable NiCd: -6% per year Battery Market and NiMH: + 9% per year Main Trends 20 000 2014-2025 Li-ion: +14% per year
15 000 Li-ion (2) -
Li-ion 375 1325 1755 2 171 M$ NiMH 992 870 907 953 10 000 NiCd 2066 1881 1750 1 709
BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 Nice, FRANCE 5 000
0 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 (1) Cell level [email protected] (2) New Lithium ion battery market detected: e-bus, x-ev, others in China 11 EACH BATTERY TECHNOLOGY HAS ITS SPECIFIC ABSOLUTE ADVANTAGES
Advantage Lithium-Ion of ... Lead Acid Nickel Cadmium Nickel Metal Hydride NiCd NiMH ...On Conventional Laminate
• Gravimetric energy density • Gravimetric energy • Gravimetric energy density • Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density density • Volumetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Operating temperature • Volumetric energy density • Voltage output • Self discharge rate Lead Acid range • Self discharge rate • Self discharge rate • Design characteristics • Self discharge rate The Rechargeable • Reliability (progressive extinction) Battery Market and • Higher cyclability • Gravimetric energy • Gravimetric energy density • Gravimetric energy density Main Trends • Voltage output density • Volumetric energy density • Volumetric energy density 2014-2025 Nickel Cadmium • Price • Volumetric energy density • Voltage output • Self discharge rate NiCd • Self discharge rate • Design characteristics
• Higher cyclability • Operating temperature • Gravimetric energy density • Gravimetric energy density • Voltage output range • Volumetric energy density • Volumetric energy density Nickel Metal • Price • Higher cyclability • Operating temperature • Operating temperature Hydride • Self discharge rate range range • Price • Higher cyclability • Self discharge rate NiMH • Voltage output • Design characteristics • Self discharge rate
• Higher cyclability • Operating temperature • Price • Gravimetric energy density • Price range • Safety • Volumetric energy density • Safety • Higher cyclability • Discharge rate (potentially) Conventional • Recyclability • Price • Recyclability • Design characteristics • Safety • Safety BATTERIES 2015 Ion - • Recyclability • Price October 6, 2015 Nice, FRANCE • Higher cyclability • Operating temperature • Volumetric energy density • Operating temperature
Lithium • Price range • Higher cyclability range Laminate • Higher cyclability • Price • Higher cyclability • Price
• Higher cyclability • Operating temperature • Volumetric energy density • Gravimetric energy density • Gravimetric energy • Price range • Volumetric energy density density Absolute • Price • Self discharge rate • Volumetric energy density advantages • Voltage output • Self discharge rate Christophe PILLOT • Voltage output • Design characteristics + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 12 JAPANESE, CHINESE & KOREAN MARKET SHARE Japanese market share (value) decreasing: from 82 % of the market in 2001 to < 40% in 2014
Rechargeable battery(1) market by LIB market by country country The Rechargeable 90% 80% Battery Market and Japan Japan Main Trends 80% Korea 2014-2025 70% Korea China 70% China 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% BATTERIES 2015 20% October 6, 2015 20% Nice, FRANCE 10% 10%
0% 0%
1994 2001 2006 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 (1) Excluding lead acid batteries [email protected] 13 NICD BATTERY: MARKET SHARE IN 2014 IN VOLUME WORLDWIDE The worldwide NiCd battery SANYO-PANASONIC is leading market Company market share the market in 2014 in volume – 920 M cells Companies Million cells SANYO-PANASONIC 350 In volume The Rechargeable OTHERS SAFT 60 Battery Market and 15% GOLD PEAK 40 Main Trends BYD 320 SANYO- 2014-2025 PANASONIC OTHERS 150 39% TOTAL 910 BYD 35%
GOLD PEAK SAFT 4% 7%
In value OTHERS BATTERIES 2015 11% October 6, 2015 Nice, FRANCE BYD SANYO- 23% PANASONIC 51%
GOLD PEAK 5% SAFT Christophe PILLOT 10% + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Fumio Ohtsubo (Panasonic) & Seiichiro Sano (Sanyo) January 8th, 2012 [email protected] 14 NICD IN 2014 MAIN APPLICATION: POWER TOOLS 920 M cells – 2450 MWh CAGR 2004/2014 600 M$1 -2% per year in volume -6% per year in value
The Rechargeable NiCd by application worldwide, % All the applications are decreasing Battery Market and in value, 2014 Main Trends 2014-2025 Competition with NiMH & Li-ion Security lighting 10% Others New application (?) 18% Energy storage
Power BATTERIES 2015 Tools October 6, 2015 72% Nice, FRANCE
Note: Christophe PILLOT 1 Portable applications, power tools and emergency lighting only: + 33 1 47 78 46 00 industrial application as well as energy storage are excluded ABB Inc., Fairbanks, Alaska, 27 MW/15 minutes [email protected] 15 NIMH BATTERY: MARKET SHARE IN 2014 WORLDWIDE
The worldwide NiMH battery The worldwide NiMH battery market Company market share market Company market share in in 2014 in volume – 1200 M cells 2014 in value – 1670 M$
The Rechargeable OTHERS Battery Market and OTHERS Main Trends 8% 9% 2014-2025 20% 5%
24% 8% 1 17% 13% 61% 16% 11% 4% BATTERIES 2015 4% 1 October 6, 2015 Nice, FRANCE Note: 1 PEVE: Primearth EV Energy (PEVE) The company was known as Panasonic EV Energy Co until 2 June 2010. The company was formed in 1996 as a joint venture between Toyota and Panasonic, with Panasonic holding 60% of the capital. Panasonic sold 40.5% of the company to Toyota. PEVE is the supplier of the NiMH battery packs for Toyota’s hybrids, as well as for Honda (Civic hybrid and first generation Insight) hybrids. The company also provides the NiMH prismatic battery modules for the General Motors ² Japan's Sanyo Electric Co sold part of its battery operations to FDK Corp a Fujitsu Ltd unit, for 6.4 billion yen ($70 million) to satisfy antitrust regulators Christophe PILLOT ahead of its planned takeover by Panasonic Corp at the end of 2009. + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses Note: Market in value at the cell level – 1,9 B$ at the pack level 16 NIMH IN 2014 MAIN APPLICATION: HYBRID VEHICLES 1 165 M cells – 3 700 MWh CAGR 2004/2014 1.65 B$(1) +9% per year in Volume NiMH battery market worldwide in +8% per year in value value
The Rechargeable % for HEV application NiMH battery by applications, 2 000 90% Battery Market and worldwide, % in value, 2014 Main Trends 1 800 80% 2014-2025 Cordless 1 600 70% Others Phones 2% 7% Retail: RC 1 400 60% cars,Toys,
1 200 Household 50% M$ 15% 1 000 40% 800 30%
600 % of HEV battery in NIMH revenues NIMH in battery HEV of % BATTERIES 2015 20% October 6, 2015 400 Nice, FRANCE 200 10% HEV
0 0% 77%
2002 2014 2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 Others HEV % of HEV in NiMH sales Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 (1) Cell based market – 1,9 B$ at the pack level [email protected] 17 LI-ION BATTERY: MARKET SHARE IN 2014 WORLDWIDE The worldwide Li-ion battery The worldwide Li-ion battery market Company market share market Company market share in 2014 in volume: 5400 M cells in 2014 in value(1) – 13,6 B$
The Rechargeable Others Battery Market and 2% 7% Main Trends 9% 4% Others 18% 2014-2025 2% 22% 3% 3% 4% 2%
4% 5%
4% 7% 18%
17% 6% 6% BATTERIES 2015 6% October 6, 2015 9% Nice, FRANCE 17% 7% 18%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2015 (1) Cell level. LIB battery pack market: >16,7 B$ [email protected] 18 MAJOR LI-ION MANUFACTURERS YEARLY PRODUCTION 2001-2014 Samsung SDI & LG Chem are growing very fast
1400
The Rechargeable SDI Battery Market and 1200 Main Trends 2014-2025 1000
Sanyo-Panasonic
Year
/ / 800
cells LG Chem 600
Million SONY 400 BATTERIES 2015 BYD ATL October 6, 2015 LISHEN Nice, FRANCE 200 BAK MAXELL
0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Panasonic acquired Sanyo in Dec 2009 [email protected] Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2015 19
CYLINDRICAL LI-ION BATTERY
In 2014, TESLA demand represent roughly 15% of the Cylindrical cells demand Cylindrical LIB market Company SANYO-PANASONIC, SDI & LG market share in 2014 in volume: will share the market 1960 Million cells (+6%) 3 000
2 500
Others 2 000
The Rechargeable cells 11% 1 500 Battery Market and 8% 1 000 Main Trends 38% Million 2014-2025 500 17% - 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 18650 cells for Portable PC & others 18650 for TESLA 26% Assumptions: TESLA sold 35 kEV in 2014, 55 kEV in 2015 and 100 kEV in 2016 Key success factor Cylindrical cells (M) by mfg. • Production speed (-> cost) 2 500 • Performances BATTERIES 2015 2 000 October 6, 2015 • Customer (Portable PCs) access Nice, FRANCE 1 500 Production Speed: 18650 – 2,8Ah cells 1 000 PANASONIC 350 ppm1 500 SDI 400 ppm - 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Christophe PILLOT LG 400 ppm + 33 1 47 78 46 00 PANASONIC-SANYO PANASONIC - TESLA Sony SDI LG Others [email protected] 0 500 1000 1500 Note: 1 ppm: piece per minutes Ah / min Source: Interviews with LG, SAMSUNG, SANYO-PANASONIC 20 PRISMATIC LI-ION BATTERY
Prismatic LIB market Company Prismatic cells (M) by Mfg. : market share in 2014 in volume: SAMSUNG is leading 1120 Million cells (-10%) 1800 The Rechargeable Others Battery Market and 1600 Main Trends 3% 7% 2014-2025 1400 8% 29% 1200
6% 1000
800
600 14% 9% 400 BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 200 Nice, FRANCE 24% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Panasonic-Sanyo SDI LG BYD LISHEN BAK OTHERS
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2015 [email protected] 21 LI-LAMINATE BATTERY
Laminate battery market Pouch cells (M) by Mfg. SONY, Company market share in 2014 ATL and SAMSUNG are leading in volume: 2 080 Million cells this market (+15%) 2500 The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025 15% 2000 20%
2% 1500 17% 5% 1000 5%
BATTERIES 2015 9% 500 October 6, 2015 14% Nice, FRANCE 13% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Panasonic-Sanyo Sony SDI LG BYD LISHEN Christophe PILLOT BAK ATL Others + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2015 [email protected] 22 LI-ION IN 2014 MAIN APPLICATIONS
5 250 M cells – 50 000 MWh CAGR 2004/2014 13 600 M$ (2) +20 % per year in Volume +14% per year in value Li-ion Battery sales, The Rechargeable Li-ion Battery sales, Battery Market and MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2015 (1) MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2015 Main Trends 2014-2025 70 000 50 000
60 000 40 000 50 000
30 000
40 000
Wh Wh M M 30 000 M M 20 000
BATTERIES 2015 20 000 October 6, 2015 10 000 Nice, FRANCE 10 000
- -
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2004 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tablets Other electronics Outils Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others Christophe PILLOT E-bikes 12 volts SLI xEV + 33 1 47 78 46 00 (1) 2015 estimation data EV & PHEV China Industrial Medical deices [email protected] (2) Cell level E-bus 23 LI-ION IN 2014 MAIN APPLICATIONS
5 250 M cells – 50 000 MWh CAGR 2004/2014 13 600 M$ (2) +20 % per year in Volume +14% per year in value
The Rechargeable Li-ion Battery sales, Li-ion Battery sales, Battery Market and M$, Worldwide, 2000-2015 (1) M$, Worldwide, 2000-2015 (1) Main Trends 2014-2025 20 000 14000 18 000 12000 16 000 14 000 10000
12 000
8000
M $ M 10 000 M $ M 8 000 6000 6 000 BATTERIES 2015 4000 October 6, 2015 4 000 2000 Nice, FRANCE 2 000
- 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2004 2014 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 Automotives Tablets Cellular Phones Power tools Camcorders Christophe PILLOT Portable PCs Digital camera MP3 Games E-Bikes + 33 1 47 78 46 00 (1) 2015: Avicenne Forecasts [email protected] Others E-bus, xEV, … China (3) 24 (2) Cell level 3) New market detected in China – 30 000 E-bus sold in 2014 LIB MAIN APPLICATIONS
From Portable devices to Automotive & industrial batteries
Li-ion battery market worldwide by Li-ion battery market worldwide by application in volume, 2000 application in volume, 2014 The Rechargeable Battery Market and (< 2 GWh) (50 GWh) Main Trends 2014-2025
Industrial, Portable ESS, non Phones Electronics portable 19% 17% 12% Phones 17% AUTO 20% BATTERIES 2015 PCs October 6, 2015 Portable PC 19% Nice, FRANCE 66%
E-bikes Portable 4% Electronics Power tools 22% Christophe PILLOT 4% + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 25 Lam. Pris. CELLULAR PHONES MARKET 50% 50% > 1980 M LIB CELLS IN 2014 LIB cell format (Volume) 2014 +1800 M cell phones sold in Samsung Galaxy & I-phone 2013 (+7% CAGR) change the game
500 SAMSUNG 450 + 2% (2012/2014 growth) 400 400 The Rechargeable 300 NOKIA Battery Market and 200 MOTOROLA 350 Main Trends APPLE
2014-2025 100 300 M cellular cellular phones/year M 0
250 -37%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 +40% NOKIA MOTOROLA SAMSUNG LG 200 APPLE RIM ZTE SONY 150
2012 2014 +55% 100 170% 1630 M Phones 1900 M Phones +200% 50 BATTERIES 2015 Others ZTE October 6, 2015 Others Nokia 39% 28% 3% 0 Nice, FRANCE 28% Huawei 4% APPLE ZTE Motorola 10% Xiaomi 4% 3% Nokia Sony- 4% RIM 11% RIM Samsung Ericsson Samsung 2% LG 3% APPLE 21% 2% 22% 5% 5% LG Standard Smartphones 6% Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 26 CELLULAR PHONES/LIB SUPPLIERS RELATIONSHIPS 2014 Cellular Phone makers / Smartphones ie laminate LIB battery suppliers relation increasing
ZTE Battery market for cellular phones worldwide, 2000-2014, in Volume The Rechargeable APPLE (M cells) Battery Market and LG Chem 2 000 Main Trends 2014-2025 Samsung 1 800
Nokia 1 600
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1 400
Panasonic Sony SDI LGC Lishen ATL Others 1 200 LIB La. 1 000 APPLE needs in 2014 M cells LIB Pr.
M/ cells Year 800 Mac 110 NiMH BATTERIES 2015 600 October 6, 2015 IPad 200 Nice, FRANCE 400 iPhone 175
iPod 200 -
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ATL SDI LG SONY LISHEN 2000 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 27 Lam. 19% Pris. 1% PORTABLE PC MARKET Cyl. 80% 990 M LIB CELLS IN 2014 LIB cell format (Volume) 2014 173 M portable PCs sold Market outlook 2014 2013/2014: -4% 250 40% Uncertain macro & weakness in both consumer & commercial growth 35% No sign for end-customer demand The Rechargeable 30% recovery Battery Market and 200 Main Trends 25% Decrease due to cannibalization by tablets 2014-2025 20% 150 Small overall decrease only thanks to 15% Emerging market growth
MPortable PC/year 10% 100 Increase of Ultra-thin Portable 5% PCs 0%
100%
50 -5% 80% 16in -10% BATTERIES 2015 15in October 6, 2015 0 -15% 60%
Nice, FRANCE 14in
2012 2014 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013
2002 40% 13in %of Portable PC sold Dell HP Toshiba 11-12in 20% Acer Lenovo Asus Netbook APPLE Others Growth/years 0% Christophe PILLOT 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Note: Excluding Tablets [email protected] 28 Lam. TABLET MARKET 100%
LIB cell format > 550 M CELLS IN 2014 (Volume) 2014 Tablets sold (Million) Market Outlook 2014 Apple leadership
250 Lower growth (7% only).
200 year
/ Growth driven by The Rechargeable 150 Others 100 mature market (77%) Battery Market and Samsung Main Trends tablets 50 consumer market (95%)
M M Apple 2014-2025 0 Apple (27%), Samsung (17%), Asus (5%), Acer, Lenovo, Amazon are Source: Gartner, IDC, Display search – 2013: AVICENNE Estimation the key competitors Others 2014: Asus 11,5 M, Lenovo 11,2 M, Amazon 3,3 M… ASP tablets drop From $636 in Q4 2010 to $335 in Q4 2013: - 47% in 36 months
700 BATTERIES 2015 636 October 6, 2015 600 607 616 550 Nice, FRANCE 500 522 508 500
480 449 Price (US $)
400 405 370 345 335 300
Average 200 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 iPad Non i-Pad Total Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 29 Cyl.; POWER TOOL MARKET 100%
LIB cell format LIB DEMAND IS GROWING (Volume) 2014 Power tools market is growing Power tools suppliers
Power Tools (Million/year) Power tools maker market share (2013) 80
60 TTI The Rechargeable OTHERS 13% B&D Battery Market and 40 30% 14% Main Trends 20 2014-2025 Metabo Bosch 0 7%
Sumec Makita 15%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2000 9% 12% Others: Jingding (3.6 M), Panasonic (0.5 M), Hitachi (2.4 M), Hilti (2M)… LIB penetration in power tools Power tools maker battery choice
% of power tools equiped with LIB PANASONIC HILTI 50% BATTERIES 2015 HITACHI October 6, 2015 40% Jingding Metabo Nice, FRANCE NiCd 30% Sumec 20% Makita NiMH TTI Li-ion 10% B&D Bosch 0%
0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Christophe PILLOT 2000 M power tools + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 30 LIB BATTERY SHORT TERM TRENDS
18650 battery capacity* Cellular phones battery capacity 100% 100% > 3Ah > 1800 mAh 80% 80% 2,8Ah 1600 mAh 60% 2.6Ah 60% 1400 mAh The Rechargeable 2.4Ah 1200 mAh Battery Market and 40% 40% 2.2Ah Main Trends 1000 mAh 20% 2.0Ah 20% 2014-2025 800 mAh 1.8Ah 0% 0% < 800 mAh 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 <=1.6Ah 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 *1C rate or laptop type 18650 cells Cylindrical/Prismatic/Laminates Cylindrical/Prismatic/Laminates 3 000 in 2013 2 500 100% 2 000 BATTERIES 2015 Others October 6, 2015 1 500 80% Nice, FRANCE TESLA 1 000 60% Power Tools M cells cells M /year 500 40% Tablets - 20% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Portable PCs Li-ion Cyl Li-ion Pr 0% Cellular Laminate Li-ion Cyl excl Tesla Cylindrical Prismatic Laminates Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Li-ion cylindrical: “Tesla impact”: 150 M cells in 2013, 300M in [email protected] 2014, 600 M in 2015 31 CYLINDRICAL LIB 18650 ROADMAP (CAPACITY + POWER)
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025
BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 Nice, FRANCE
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source : [email protected] 32 BATTERY PRICE IS DECREASING DRASTICALLY In 10 Years 80% price decreasing Average LIB cell price ($/Wh) despite a fluctuating Co price 1,00 0,80
0,60 The Rechargeable Battery Market and 0,40 Main Trends 0,20 2014-2025 0,00 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Cylindrical Prismatic Laminate Source: UMICORE, march 2011 Note- Q4 2013: Cylindrical: 0,17 $/Wh ; Laminates: 0,3$/Wh Production capacity 2009/2011: 18650 oversupply ratio is from 150 to 250 M cells/month decreasing thanks to TESLA 3 000 50%
300 BAK
BATTERIES 2015 ATL 2 500 250 40%
October 6, 2015 Lishen Ratio
2 000 Nice, FRANCE 200 E-One 30%
month 1 500 / 150 LG 20% supply
M/Year cells 1 000
cells 100 SDI
10% Over M M 500 50 MAXELL SONY - 0% 0
Christophe PILLOT PANASONIC
3Q09 3Q10 3Q11
2Q 09 2Q 09 4Q 10 1Q 10 2Q 10 4Q 11 1Q 11 2Q 11 4Q 1Q 09 1Q SANYO + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Standard Demand TESLA [email protected] Production Capacity Oversupply ratio 33 LIB: THE BIGGEST PART OF THE COST IS RAW MATERIALS
RAW MATERIALS ACCOUNT FOR 50 TO 80% OF LIB CELLS BUSINESS RAW MATERIAL COST IMPACT DRASTICALY ON THE BATTERY MAKERS PROFIT
LIB Cost structure for Japanese, Chinese & Korean makers Average cost structure of Li-ion cell in 2014 The Rechargeable Battery Market and 100% Main Trends Overheads 2014-2025 Operating cost 90% 6% Margin profit 6% 80% Sales & Adm 6% Depreciation Cathode cost
70% 21% Production Production 60% SGA R&D Anode cost 6% 7% 50% R&D Energy, utilities 40% Electrolyte 3% 5% 30% Labor Direct labor Separator 6% BATTERIES 2015 Depreciation Other 8% October 6, 2015 20% 13% materials Material 13% Nice, FRANCE 10% 0%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Note: Average mix of cylindrical, prismatic & laminate cells Lithium ion cell average cost [email protected] 34 LI-ION VALUE CHAIN – MARKET DEMAND
CATHODE >110 OOO T in 2014 Revenues: 2,5 B$ CAGR 04/14: +16% CELL PACK ANODE MANUFACTURERS MANUFACTURERS >55 000 T Revenues: 0,8 B$ Revenues: Revenues: The Rechargeable CAGR 03/13: +14% 15 B$ 21 B$ Battery Market and Main Trends Gross margin: Gross margin: 2014-2025 ELECTROLYTE <10% <10% >45 000 T Revenues: 0,7 B$ CAGR 04/14 : 20%
SEPARATOR > 700 M m² Revenues: 1,15 B$ CAGR 04/14 : 18%
BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 BINDER Nice, FRANCE 7 500 Tons Revenues: 0,2 B$ CAGR 08/13 : 15%
ANCILLARY
Christophe PILLOT Revenues: 0,8 B$ + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 35 LIB CATHODE MATERIAL
Cathode raw materials market LiCoO2 (LCO) LiMn2O4 (LMO) LiMPO4(1) (LFP) The Rechargeable Li[NixMnyCoz]O2 - NMC Battery Market and Main Trends Li[NixCoyAlz]O2 – NCA 2014-2025 Supplier/customer by chemistry Forecasts (1) M= Fe or Mn Source: SANYO, March 2011
Ni & Co price 2003-2015 140 Ni 120 Co BATTERIES 2015 100 October 6, 2015 Nice, FRANCE 80
$/kg 60 40 20
0 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: Mitsubishi, Batteries 2012 – Nice Source: LME [email protected] 36 CATHODE ACTIVE
MATERIALS NEEDS NMC – > 25 KT (2014)
Chinese EASPRING Nichia Cathode active materials for LIB 9% 3% 13% Reshine in Tons, 2000-2014 (Demand) 4% ShanShan 140 000 11% Umicore 24% 120 000 L&F 9% The Rechargeable Internal Others Battery Market and 100 000 19% 8% Main Trends LFP
80 000 LCO – >45 KT (2014) LFP – > 20 KT (2014)
2014-2025 LMO Tons 60 000 NCA Shan PULEAD Internal Shan 9% 2% Nichia 9% Others NMC Others 9% 40 000 25% INTERNAL LCO 2% Umicore 34% 15% Tatung 20 000 2% Other B&M Zhuoneng China 10% 6% JOHNSON - 8% L&F MATTHEY Easpring 15% Pulead ALEEES 6%
Reshine 6% STL
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2000 15% 8% 9% 10% BATTERIES 2015 LEADERS: October 6, 2015 NCA – > 10 KT (2014) LMO – > 18 KT (2014) Nice, FRANCE Nippon Nichia Mitsui Denko Others 14% 5% Yuan Ecopro Toda Kogyo 4% 8% Yuan 5% 16% 4% NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: Reshine Nihon 8% JGC Kagaku 11% Christophe PILLOT Sangyo Qyanyun 13% 12% + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Sumitomo Chinese ShanShan [email protected] 58% 33% (…) 9% LCO SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS IN 2014 SUPPLY >45 000 TONS IN 2014 LCO Battery makers & suppliers LCO market share in 2014 relation in 2014 (Volume)
Others Internal The Rechargeable BAK Shan Shan 3% Battery Market and 10% Main Trends ATL Nichia 2014-2025 Others 13% Lishen 3%
BYD Other China LGC 14% Umicore 17% SDI
PANASONIC L&F 16% SONY B&M BATTERIES 2015 7% October 6, 2015 Easpring Nice, FRANCE 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Reshine 6% Tons 11%
Nichia Corp Umicore Korea L&F Reshine B&M ShanShan Internal Other China Others Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 38 NMC SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS IN 2014 SUPPLY > 25 000 TONS IN 2014 NMC Battery makers & suppliers NMC market share in 2014 relation in 2014 (volume)
Others E-One Other The Rechargeable Easpring China Battery Market and BAK 4% Nichia 8% Main Trends 15% ATL Reshine 2014-2025 Maxell 4% Lishen LGC ShanShan SDI 11% PANASONIC SONY L&F 8% Umicore 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 31% BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 Tons Nice, FRANCE Internal Internal Nichia Corp Umicore Korea 15% Others 4% Chinese local ShanShan Reshine
3M L&F Beijing Easpring
Christophe PILLOT Others + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 39 NCA SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS IN 2013 SUPPLY > 9 000 TONS IN 2014 NCA Battery makers & suppliers NCA market share in 2014 relation in 2014 (Volume)
The Rechargeable Others Battery Market and Chinese Main Trends Others 6% 2014-2025 7% SDI Ecopro Toda Kogyo 7% 13%
PANASONIC Nihon Kagaku Sangyo 13% Sumitomo BATTERIES 2015 Metal October 6, 2015 SONY Nice, FRANCE Mining 54%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Tons Toda Kogyo Corp Sumitomo Metal Mining Christophe PILLOT Nihon Kagaku Sangyo Ecopro + 33 1 47 78 46 00 JFE Minerals Others [email protected] Chinese 40 LMO SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS IN 2014 SUPPLY >18 000 TONS IN 2014 LMO Battery makers & suppliers LMO market share in 2014 relation in 2014
Others The Rechargeable NEC Easpring Battery Market and 2% Nichia Corp Main Trends Qiannyun 7% Maxell 2014-2025 15%
Lishen
Yuan Yuan BYD 4% MGL Chinese local LGC 3% 26%
SDI
BATTERIES 2015 PANASONIC Nichia Reshine October 6, 2015 8% Nice, FRANCE SONY Shan Shan Nippon denko 9% 8% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Tons JGC Chinese local JGC Catalyst Shan Shan 16% Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Yuan Yuan Qiannyun Easpring [email protected] 41 LFP SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS IN 2014 SUPPLY - 20 000 TONS IN 2014 LFP market is icreasing LFP market share in 2014 drasticaly, mostly in China
50 000
The Rechargeable 45 000 Others World Battery Market and Main Trends 40 000 Others 2014-2025 25% INTERNAL 34% 35 000 Others China Tatung
30 000 2% Zhuoneng 25 000 LISHEN 6% JOHNSON
TonnesdeLFP MATTHEY 20 000 Pulead 6% BATTERIES 2015 8% October 6, 2015 15 000 STL ALEEES Nice, FRANCE ATL 9% 10% 10 000
5 000 BYD - Others: Sumitomo, BeLife (Umicore-Prayon), BASF, etc… Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 2013 2014 2015 2016 [email protected] 2015, 2016 : AVICENNE forecasts 42 CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL DEMAND MAIN DRIVER APPLICATIONS
Autres LCO: Smartphones, Tablets NMC: Portable PC, Auto 40 000 30 000 Industrie 35 000 EV 25 000 30 000 20 000
PHEV 25 000
HEV 20 000 15 000 Tons The Rechargeable Tons 15 000 Battery Market and Outils portables 10 000 Main Trends Tablettes 10 000 5 000 2014-2025 5 000 PC Portables 0 0 Smartphones 2000 2005 2010 2014 2000 2005 2010 2014
NCA: Auto (TESLA), LMO: Auto LFP: Tools, e-bike, Auto, Stationary Portable PCs 12 000 25 000 25 000 E-bus, e-bike, 10 000 mostly in China 20 000 20 000
8 000
BATTERIES 2015 15 000 15 000
October 6, 2015
6 000
Tons Tons Nice, FRANCE Tons 10 000 10 000 4 000
5 000 5 000 2 000
0 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2014 2000 2005 2010 2014 2000 2005 2010 2014 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 43 CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL FORECASTS 2000-2025 Cathode active materials Cathode active materials in 2000-2025 - Tons 2014: > 110 000 Tons
350 000 80% LFP 17% 300 000 70% LCO The Rechargeable 60% 250 000 33% Battery Market and LMO 50% Main Trends 200 000 19% 2014-2025 40% NMC Tons NCA 150 000 23% 30% 8% 100 000 20% 50 000 10% Cathode active materials in - 0% 2025: > 300 000 Tons 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 LCO NMC NCA LFP 27% LMO LFP China (%) LCO 25% BATTERIES 2015 ASSUMPTIONS: October 6, 2015 Portable devices: Nice, FRANCE 2013-2025: +11% per year in volume HEV LMO 4,8 M HEV/year in 2020 - 35% LIB NMC 6,8 M HEV in 2025 90% LIB 9% NCA 25% P-HEV 0,4 M P-HEV/year in 2020, 0,7 M in 2025 14% 100% LIB EV Assumption: Tesla keep NCA chemistry and have a relative success Christophe PILLOT 1M EV/year in 2020, 1,5M/year in 2025 (200 000 EV sold per year in 2025 – TESLA forecast 500 000)
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00 100% LIB LFP part could be higher thanks to explosion of Chinese EV market [email protected] Industrial & stationary 44 2013-2025: +16% per year
ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS > 55 000 TONS IN 2014 LIB Anode Materials
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025
Source: A. Jossen, IRES 2007 Source: Hitachi Chemical
LIB Anode Materials LIB Anode market, (Tons) 60000 LTO 1,2 50000 1,0 BATTERIES 2015 40000 Si or Sn Type
October 6, 2015 0,8
Nice, FRANCE 30000 Amorphous Carbon Tons
0,6 20000 0,4 Meso-Phase 10000 0,2 0 Artificial Graphite 0,0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2006 Natural Graphite Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: Sanyo, March 2013 [email protected] 45 ANODE FOR LIB IN 2014 Natural graphite become a commodity
Others Hard Soft Graphite A123 Carbon Carbon BAK Capacity 400 mAh/g 250 mAh/g 325-375 ATL ARTIFICIAL Maxell (/g) mAh/g MCMB Lishen Capacity ++ 0 + The Rechargeable BYD NATURAL (/cc) LGC Battery Market and Amorphous Power ++ + 0 Main Trends SDI PANASONIC METAL 2014-2025 Stability ++ + 0 SONY Cyclability ++ + 0 SANYO Source: Hitachi Chemical 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Precursors Petroleum Petroleum Natural or Pitch, Resin, coke petroleum Carbon for LIB anodes by type (2013) cellulose, coke wood, MCMB coconuts… Artificial 4% Graphite COST 30 -> 25 25->20 15 -> 10 26% Amorphous 2012- $/kg $/kg $/kg 4% >2020 Si or Sn Type BATTERIES 2015 1% Natural SUPPLIERS KUREHA HITACHI HITACHI October 6, 2015 Graphite LTO BTR 64% Nice, FRANCE 1% & many others Note: MCMB: Mesocarbon Microbeads
LEADERS: NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:
Christophe PILLOT (…) + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 46 NATURAL GRAPHITE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS 38 000 TONS IN 2014
Natural Graphite Battery makers Natural Graphite market share in & suppliers relation in 2014 2014
A123
The Rechargeable BAK Hitachi Battery Market and Chemical ATL Main Trends LS Mtron 17% 2014-2025 Carbonics Maxell 10% Others Ghangsha 8% Lishen Hairong 4% BYD Carbon Tech 3% Nippon Carbon LGC 15% Chuo Denki SDI Kogyo 1% SONY BATTERIES 2015 Mitsubishi October 6, 2015 PANASONIC Chemical Nice, FRANCE 7% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Shenzhen BTR Tons 35% Nippon Carbon Mitsubishi Chemical Shenzhen BTR Chuo Denki Kogyo Carbon Tech Ghangsha Hairong Christophe PILLOT LS Mtron Carbonics Others + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Others: Sumitomo, Mitsui, LG, etc… [email protected] 47 ARTIFICIAL GRAPHITE 14 000 TONS IN 2014
Artificial Graphite Battery makers Artificial Graphite market share & suppliers relation in 2014 in 2014
Others ConoccoPhilipps A123 The Rechargeable 1% Battery Market and Tokai Carbon BAK 3% Main Trends 2014-2025 ATL Showa Denko 7% Maxell Shanshan Tech Lishen 10%
BYD Shenzhen BTR 6% LGC JFE Chemical SDI 5% Hitachi Chemical SONY 68% BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 PANASONIC Nice, FRANCE 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Tons Hitachi Chemical JFE Chemical Shenzhen BTR Shanshan Tech Showa Denko Tokai Carbon ConoccoPhilipps Others Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 48 LIB SEPARATOR MARKET 2014
LIB separator market, M$, LIB Separator supplier, market CAGR 2004/2014: +17% share in 2014 1400
1200 The Rechargeable UBE Others ASAHI Battery Market and 1000 7% 14% Main Trends 25% 2014-2025
800 CELGARD M$ 600 14%
400 TORAY 23% SK 200 SUMITOMO 13% ENTEK 1% 0 3% Others: TDK/Nitto Denko, Foshan Jinhui Hi-Tech, Shenzhen Senior
BATTERIES 2015
2006 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2000 Technology Material, Xinxiang Green next Energy, Dupont,… October 6, 2015 Nice, FRANCE LEADERS: NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:
Christophe PILLOT Evonik, TEIJIN, + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] HIFUTURE, UBE-MAXELL (…) 49 ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS 44 000 TONS IN 2014 LIB electrolyte market, Tons, LIB electrolyte supplier, market CAGR 2004/2014: +23% share in 2014 50000 Others UBE 45000 Mitsubishi Soulbrain 8% 5% 40000 Chem The Rechargeable 7% 14% Battery Market and 35000 Main Trends 30000 ShanShan
2014-2025 25000 7% Tons 20000 In-house Cap Chem 15000 9% 8% 10000 Tomiyama 3% 5000 Jinniu 0 8% GTHR 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Mitsui 15% PANAX- ETEC Cellular Portable PC Tablets 3% 13% BATTERIES 2015 Power tools E-bikes HEV October 6, 2015 PHEV EV Others Nice, FRANCE LEADERS: NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:
Christophe PILLOT Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huang JINNIU + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] Note: (1) GTHR: Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong 50 LIB ELECTROLYTE MARKET 2014 Electrolyte Battery makers & suppliers relation in 2014 (Tons)
TOSHIBA
Yuasa (BEC)
YUASA (LEJ)
NEC
A123 The Rechargeable BAK Battery Market and Main Trends ATL 2014-2025 Maxell
Lishen
BYD
LG Chem
SDI
Panasonic
BATTERIES 2015 Sony October 6, 2015 Nice, FRANCE 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 Tons
Mitsubishi Chem In-house Tomiyama PANAX-ETEC GTHR
Mitsui BASF Jinniu Cap Chem ShanShan
Christophe PILLOT Soulbrain Tinci Others + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] (1) Full electrolyte formulation in-house (2) Panax-Etec bought Samsung Chiel activities in 2010 51 LIB ELECTROLYTE MARKET 2005-2014 Electrolyte maker sales 2005-2014
7 000 GTHR
6 000 Capchem Mitsubishi PANAX (2) The Rechargeable 5 000 Battery Market and Main Trends 4 000 In-House 2014-2025 Jinniu Shanshan
Tons 3 000
2 000 Soulbrain Ube Mitsui 1 000 Tomiyama
BASF (Merck, Novolyte) BATTERIES 2015 -
October 6, 2015
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Nice, FRANCE 2005
Ube Mitsubishi In-House Tomiyama PANAX-ETEC Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong Mitsui BASF (Merck, Novolyte) Jinniu Capchem Shanshan Soulbrain Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 (1) Full electrolyte formulation in-house (2) Panax-Etec bought Samsung Chiel activities in 2010 [email protected] 52 BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS 2014-2025 Applications covered Parameters analysis
Portable PCs, net-book, Ultra-book Main segment trends Cellular Phones, Smart-phones Power need trends (volume, The Rechargeable Tablets Battery Market and Camcorders weight, capacity, running time) Main Trends Cordless Tools, Gardening tools Penetration rate for each 2014-2025 Digital Camera Games, MP3 Chemistry, each form factor, Cordless Phones 2013 -2025 Forecasts Shavers, Toothbrush, OEM strategies and positions RC Cars E-bikes Main drivers & limiters Power tools Security lighting BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 Vehicles: HEV, P-HEV, EV Nice, FRANCE Industrial motive (forklift) Industrial stationary (UPS, Telecom) Medical Energy Storage (Small / large)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 53 PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES FORECASTS 2010-2025
Cellular phones demand (M Units) Cellular Phones market Drivers CAGR 2010-2025: +6% 4 000 OTHERS Emergent market INDIA 3 000 ASIA Renewal ratio increase The Rechargeable 2 000 CHINA Battery Market and JAPAN Smartphone penetration increase Main Trends 1 000 2014-2025 EUROPE - USA
LIB cells demand 2010-2025 Polymer penetration: 30% -> 75% 100% BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 80% LIB cells for cellular phones Nice, FRANCE 60% Polymer trends 40% Prismatic 20% Laminates ratio increase 0% Increase of Thickness Increase of >1400 mAh capacity Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses [email protected] 54 Lam. 19% Pris. 1% PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES Cyl. FORECASTS 2010-2025 80% Portable PCs demand (M Units) Portable PCs market trends 2014-2025 – Almost stable 250 Mature market stable or decreasing 200 Growth driven by Emerging market The Rechargeable 150 Ultrabook is increasing (20(1) to 60% in Emerging Battery Market and 100 2013(2)) Main Trends 50 Mature 2014-2025 ASP decreasing (<499$ Portable PCs 0 increase from 25% in 2010 to 33% in 2012
Source: IDC, Gartner, AVICENNE Energy (1) Samsung & AVICENNE (2) Intel LIB cells demand 2014-2025 LIB cells for portable PCs trends Polymer penetration: 20% -> 40% 100% Thinner cells BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 80% Polymer penetration increasing from Nice, FRANCE 60% Laminate 7% in 2010 to 28% in 2025 40% Prismatic > 2800 mAh for Premium/corporate 20% Cylindrical 0% 2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses [email protected] 55 2025 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES 2000 -2025 LIB market, MWh, by 2000-2025 LIB market, M cells, application (3C) by form factor (3C) CAGR 14-25: + 10% 70000 7000
The Rechargeable Battery Market and 60000 Others 6000 Main Trends Household 2014-2025 50000 Toys 5000
MP3 4000
40000 Video Games
Digital Camera
MWh 3000 30000 Camcorders cells/year M
Cordless Phones 2000 20000 Tablets BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 Portable PCs 1000 Nice, FRANCE 10000 Cellular Phones 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 0 Li-P
Li-ion Pr
2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2000 Li-ion Cyl Christophe PILLOT Takeshita - March 2013 (1) + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses (1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4 56 X-EV MARKET
Why x-EV ? Definition & segmentation X-EV worldwide in 2014 The Rechargeable Battery Market and By country Main Trends 2014-2025 By car makers By battery chemistry X-EV forecasts AVICENNE ENERGY & other analyst forecasts Battery chemistry forecasts BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 Battery cost forecasts Nice, FRANCE X-EV battery forecasts
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 57 WHY X-EV ?
Price of the WTI1 barrel of oil, MAJOR DRIVER: CO2 regulation US $ worldwide: From 2013 to 2014 120 4
3,5
Oil price decrease but HEV sales 100
increase by 5%, P-HEV by 30% 3 80 and EV by 60% 2,5
60 2
US$ US$ /Gallon
US US / $ Barrel
190 - The Rechargeable 1,5 – 40 Battery Market and 180 1 Main Trends 20 2014-2025 0,5 170
0 0
Gasoline Gasoline Price
Crude Oil CrudeOil Price
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 160 1973
Source:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html 150
140 Petroleum consumption worldwide 1960-2030 130
Million barrel per day CO2 Emission CO2 (g/km) Emission BATTERIES 2015 150 October 6, 2015 120 Nice, FRANCE 100 110 50
100 0
90 2012 2015 2020 Source: Energy Information Administration, US Christophe PILLOT Government + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Europe USA Japan China [email protected] Note 1 WTI: West Texas Intermediate 58 HEV, P-HEV & EV DEFINITION & SEGMENTATION
EV & HEV MARKET
HEV P HEV EV 0.6-2 kWh 10 kWh The Rechargeable 25 kWh batteries batteries Battery Market and Main Trends MICRO MILD MEDIUM FULL 2014-2025 HEV* HEV HEV HEV
Fuel saving Vs. Cost CITROEN C2, C3 HONDA CIVIC 100% TOYOTA PRIUS BMW 3Series GM Saturn Vue INSIGHT EV TOYOTA CAMRY Fiat 500 GM AURA MERCEDES FORD ESCAPE 80% Hyundai i10 GM MALIBU S400 BATTERIES 2015 FORD FUSION Hyudai i30 HONDA October 6, 2015 MILAN Kia ACCORD 60% Nice, FRANCE GM YUKON P-HEV Smart for2 GM TAHOE Toyota Yaris NISSAN ALTIMA 40% Toyota Auris VW Passat 20% ….. HEV 0% 0 $ 5 000 $ 10 000 $ 15 000 $ Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Note: Micro HEV are not in the HEV statistics & HEV forecast [email protected] 59 Growth 2013-2014: +5% HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2014 From 1,9 M to 2 M HEV 2 M HEV HEV sold per year, M units, Penetration of hybrids in the worldwide, 2000 - 2014 global sales, 2000-2014
2,5 30% TOYOTA OTHERS
The Rechargeable Million Battery Market and 25% Main Trends 2,0 2014-2025
20% JAPON 1,5
15%
1,0 10% BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 0,5 Nice, FRANCE 5%
USA Penetration of hybrids in the globale sales globale thein hybrids of Penetration EUROPE
0,0 0%
2001 2014 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY [email protected] Micro hybrid not included 60 HONDA & FORD market share HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2014 growing BY CAR SUPPLIER Total HEV Vehicles HEV sold per year, M units per 2 Million HEV in 2014 car manufacturers, 2000-2014
1 600 OTHERS HYUNDAI The Rechargeable 5% 1 400 TOYOTA 3% Battery Market and NISSAN GM 3% 1% Main Trends 1 200 2014-2025 FORD
4% 000 ‘ HEV sold 1 000
800
HONDA 15% 600
400 TOYOTA HONDA 69% BATTERIES 2015 200 October 6, 2015 Nice, FRANCE 0
TOYOTA HONDA Others: Chineses, VW, Porsche, Mercedes, Mazda, Audi, Subaru etc… Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY [email protected] Micro hybrid not included 61
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2014 BY CAR SUPPLIER TOP 3: TOYOTA, HONDA, OTHERS: FORD, GM, … FORD
1 600 90
The Rechargeable 1 400 TOYOTA 80 FORD Battery Market and
‘ 000 000 ‘ HEV sold 70 Main Trends 1 200 2014-2025 60 ‘ 000 000 ‘ HEV sold 1 000 50 NISSAN 800 HYUNDAI 40 600 30
400 HONDA 20 GM BATTERIES 2015 200 10 October 6, 2015 FORD
Nice, FRANCE 0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
TOYOTA HONDA FORD FORD GM NISSAN
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY [email protected] Micro hybrid not included 62
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2014 BY COUNTRY Total HEV Vehicles HEV sold per year, M units per 2 M in 2014 country, 2004-2014 1200000 JAPAN OTHERS The Rechargeable Battery Market and 8% 1000000 Main Trends 2014-2025 USA 23% 800000
600000 EUROPE USA 12% 400000 JAPAN BATTERIES 2015 57% October 6, 2015 EUROPE Nice, FRANCE 200000
OTHERS
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2015 Micro hybrid not included [email protected] 63 P-HEV & EV SALES 2010-2014 (YEARLY)
CHINE Others OTHERS 5% 7% 7% US 25%
US CHINA EUROPE EV sales P-HEV sales 41% 31% 22% JAPAN 11% JAPON EUROPE 25% 26% 250 000 250000 The Rechargeable Others Battery Market and CHINA Main Trends +58% Others VW 2014-2025 200000 200 000 BMW
Volvo Honda +28% Toyota 150000 150 000 Tesla Mitsubishi Renault Smart 100000 100 000 Ford Ford
BATTERIES 2015 MITSUBISHI October 6, 2015 NISSAN Nice, FRANCE 50000 Toyota 50 000
GM Volt, 0 Ampera 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses [email protected] 64 LIB FOR AUTOMOTIVE VALUE CHAIN Comments 1 The largest share of the value (40%) comes from cell components 2 Cell manufacturers & OEM alliance may be the winning model but The Rechargeable comes with high risk if the wrong cell Battery Market and manufacturer is selected Main Trends 2014-2025 3 Tiers 1- cell manufacturers alliance: most of them disappear (eg. Saft-Johnson Controls, Bosch- Samsung, Enerdel- Delphi…) 4 Tiers 1- OEM alliance on Battery are not successful Panasonic and LG Chem, BATTERIES 2015 5 cell manufacturers October 6, 2015 develop raw -material in- Nice, FRANCE house and make the pack integration for OEM 6 On a different scale, Toyota, BYD or BOLLORE are fully integrate
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 65 LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS 2009-2015 10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE >50 GWh invest from 2011 to 2014) < 7 B$ invested from 2014 to 2017 by TESLA (5), BYD (1,2), ATL (1)
Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing ATL (2014 - 2017) BYD (2013 - 2015) The Rechargeable TESLA (2014-2017) Battery Market and LiTec GmbH Main Trends Panasonic EV SK Energy 2014-2025 Mitsubishi H.I. NEC Tokin AESC Japon Hitachi Vehicle Energy 2014 – 2017 SAFT TESLA, ATL, BYD TESLA Plant, Nevada, Feb 2015 SAFT US Investments: BAK Lishen 150 $ / kWh Nissan-Renault (Port) Blue Energy Toshiba Nissan - Renault (UK) LG Chem Rusnano-Thunder Sky BATTERIES 2015 Lithium Energy Japan Hitachi Vehicle Energy October 6, 2015 SB Limotive Nice, FRANCE GS YUASA Dow Kokam Nissan-Renault (Fr) Ener1 Average 2012-2014 Sanyo A123 Investments: JCI 250 $ / kWh LG Chem BYD Christophe PILLOT Sony + 33 1 47 78 46 00 NISSAN Motor US M$ PANASONIC TESLA GIGA FACTORY, Feb 2015 [email protected] 66 0 2000 4000 6000 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2015 TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS IN LIB INDUSTRY
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025 The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming. Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launched by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 20 years ago. BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (22 years ago) Nice, FRANCE Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (20 years ago). So, it takes between 10 & 20 years to commercialize a new material in the battery industry. Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 67 BATTERY TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
Batteries take a long time to develop; to reach the automotive market, another 4 to 5 years are needed
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025
BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 Nice, FRANCE
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: Avicenne Energy analysis [email protected] 68 TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS IN LIB INDUSTRY
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025
BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 Nice, FRANCE
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 69 SAFETY ISSUES
Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious safety concerns
In the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The The Rechargeable growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit. Battery Market and • CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled
Background their projects Main Trends
2014-2025 Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid
electrolyte. In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”) CONSEQUENCES: In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of
Mobile 400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date
With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns: (1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode (2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !) BATTERIES 2015 (3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company without any authorisation by Toyota)
October 6, 2015 Automotive Nice, FRANCE Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused
by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell. CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.
Aircraft
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 70 LIB BUSINESS RECALLS SLASH BATTERY PROFIT
RECALL SLASH BATTERY PROFIT More & more incidents & Sanyo
accidents 30% The Rechargeable Battery Market and All the battery makers 20% MBI Main Trends 2014-2025 and the OEM are 10% BYD
concerned 0% SGS Recall cost impact -10% Sony
drastically the battery profit/Revenue Operating -20% business and the NEC -30% profitability Maxell -40% LGC BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 -50%
Nice, FRANCE SDI
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Average
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 71 SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES
Some technologies are already out of the game due to stability issues
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025
BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 Nice, FRANCE
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 72 LIB BATTERY COST
Costs analysis Battery price in 2014 $/kWh Raw material cost (Co, Mn, Ni, Al, 1000 Cu, …) 900 The Rechargeable Anode, cathode, Electrolyte , Battery Market and 800 Main Trends separator, binders, Cu & Al foil, etc… 2014-2025 cost structure : 700 CAPEX, labor cost, 600 R&D 500 Marketing, Adm, Overhead, margin) Raw material needs / mAh 400 Electrode process Yield 300
BATTERIES 2015 Assembly Process Yield 200 October 6, 2015 Cell manufacturing cost Nice, FRANCE 100 Module manufacturing cost 0 Pack assembly cost LIB LIB EV LIB pack LIB HEV LIB pack … 18650 Cell for EV cell for HEV cell Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 73 BATTERY & POWER ELEC. COST IN EV
€ 8,250 - € 50 - € 5,500 - € 18,100 € 300 € 8,000
HV batt. Pack for EV € 8,150 - € 15,100
HV batt. CELL for EV
€ 100 - € 400 € 50 - € 1,000 - The Rechargeable € 400 € 2,500 Battery Market and € 1,500 - Main Trends € 3,000 2014-2025
€ 150 - € 150 - € 250 € 350 € 300 - € 500 € 900 - € 1,250 € 150 - € 350
Overall HV Cooling Batt. Charger Inverter battery Syst Packaging Rectifier Manuf. LV cell Packaging Batt. DC/DC Generator HV battery material Magt converter Inverter Cables & pack Syst Connectors
12 000 € BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 10 000 € Power Elec Nice, FRANCE 8 000 € Pack Manufacturing 6 000 € BMS 4 000 € Thermal Mgmt + packaging 2 000 € Cell manu 0 € Cell Christophe PILLOT Active Hybrid 5 Volt Bluecar Leaf + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] HEV P-HEV EV 74 AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION LIB CELL BILL OF MATERIALS
NISSAN LEAF BOLLORE BLUE CAR
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025
GM VOLT BMW ACTIVE HYBRID 5
BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 Nice, FRANCE
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION 75 LI-ION BATTERY COST 2013-2020
LIB cell average cost (36Ah pouch) LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST (EV design ; LMO/NMC cathode) FOR EV 600 350 The Rechargeable Margin Battery Market and 500 300 Pack Cost Main Trends Warranty 2014-2025 Overheads 400 250 Sales & Adm Cell Manufacturing
R&D 300 Other 200 Energy, utilities
$ / $ kWh Materials Direct labor
$ / kWh / $ 150 Depreciation 200 Separator Others
Separator Electrolyte BATTERIES 2015 100 100 October 6, 2015 Electrolyte Nice, FRANCE Anode (1) Anode 50
Cathode (1) 0
Cell
Cell
Pack
Cell Pack Pack Cathode 0 2014* 2015* 2020* 2014 2015 2020 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 (1) Active materials only * For Production > 100 000 packs/year [email protected] 76 HEV FORECASTS 2000-2020 HEV MARKET: >2 Million units in 2015 – 3 M in 2020 – 5 M in 2025
35% 6 Million The Rechargeable 30% 5 Battery Market and Main Trends 25% 2014-2025 4 20%
3
(% of total car sales) car totalof (%
15% 2
10% penetration
HEV HEV 1 5% BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 Nice, FRANCE 0% 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS WORLD USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Micro hybrid not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2015 [email protected] 77 EV, P-HEV, EV 2025 FORECASTS Scenario 2: thanks to very high incentives, China could change the game
S1: HEV, P-HEV & EV market S2: HEV, P-HEV & EV market forecasts up to 2025 forecasts up to 2025
10 The Rechargeable 10 Battery Market and 9 Main Trends 9 1,5 2014-2025 8 8 1 7 7 0,3 EV in China 1,5 1,1 6 6 P-HEV in China 1 EV 0,62 0,65 5 HEV in China 5
P-HEV EV Million Million cars
Million Million cars 4 0,75 4 1 HEV P-HEV 0,38 BATTERIES 2015 0,4 3 HEV October 6, 2015 3 5 Nice, FRANCE 0,35 5 0,27 0,25 0,17 2 0,17 0,16 2 0,135 0,13 3,2 3,2 1 2,1 1 2 2,2 1,9 0,9 0,9 0 0 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 78 TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND 2025 FORECASTS Scenario 2: thanks to very high incentives, China could change the game
EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh) Total battery demand (MWh) CAGR 2014-2025: +16% / S2:+22% CAGR 2014-2025: +11% / S2: +14% The Rechargeable 200 000 250000 Battery Market and Main Trends 180 000 2014-2025 160 000 200000
140 000
120 000 150000
100 000
MWh
80 000 100000 MWh
60 000 BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 40 000 50000 Nice, FRANCE 20 000
- 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 NiCd NiMH except Auto NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB except Auto NiMH for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV Christophe PILLOT LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV + 33 1 47 78 46 00 S2 (China Explosion) LIB for EV S2 EV China Explosion [email protected] 79 X-EV BATTERY MARKET 2000 – 2025 IN M$ Rechargeable battery market, M$ for x-EV 2000-2025 Cell Level Pack Level CAGR 2014-2025: +8% / S2:+11% CAGR 2014-2025: +8% / S2:+11% CAGR Li-ion 2014-2025: 11% / S2: 14% CAGR Li-ion 2014-2025: 10% / S2: 13% 18 000 25 000 The Rechargeable Battery Market and 16 000 Main Trends 2014-2025 20 000 14 000 (S2) 12 000 (S2) 15 000
10 000
M $ M M $ M 8 000 10 000 6 000
BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 4 000 5 000 Nice, FRANCE 2 000
0 0 2005 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2005 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025
NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV Christophe PILLOT LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV + 33 1 47 78 46 00 China (S2) China (S2) [email protected] 80 35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN 2020 Micro-hybrids car market Advantages of micro-hybrid 2010-2020 compare to HEV Micro-hybrid car sold per year Powered by Advanced lead acid 80 batteries The Rechargeable Battery Market and Much more profitable than full 70 Main Trends HEV: 8 to 10 times less expensive 2014-2025 60 than full HEV to save 5% gasoline AVICENNE instead of 20% (4 times less) 50
Much more impact on CO2 Optimistic 40 Scenario
Million JD Power Micro-hybrid Full HEV 30 Battery Advanced lead NiMH or LIB Valeo BATTERIES 2015 acid October 6, 2015 20 Cost ($) 300 3000 Nice, FRANCE Fuel saving 5% 20% 10 Million Vehicle 35 3.5 sold per year in 0 2020 2010 2015 2020 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 81 HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID BATTERIES
MICRO MILD FULL STANDARD CAR HYBRIDS HEV HEV EV 88.5% P-HEV 10% 0.5% 1% 2010
The Rechargeable Lead Advanced
NiMH NiMH batteriesNiMH
Battery Market and Li -
Main Trends ion
Lead
Standard Batteries
2014-2025
batteries
acid
2015
acid
FULL STANDARD CAR MICRO HYBRID EV BATTERIES 2015 HEV P-HEV October 6, 2015 2020 44% 50% 2% Nice, FRANCE 4%
ULTRA Li-ion Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells AFTER BATTERY Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 82 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)
450 000 Lead Acid Batteries
The Rechargeable 400 000 +350 GWh for > US $ 30 Billion Battery Market and Main Trends 350 000 2014-2025 64% Others (Flow SLI battery, NAS, …)300 000 Industrial Li-ion 3% E-bikes
250 000 33%
NiMH MWh 200 000 Industrial Batteries NiCD 58 GWh for US $ 13 Billion 150 000 Telecom BATTERIES 2015 Lead Acid October 6, 2015 22% Nice, FRANCE 100 000 UPS 24% 12% 50 000 Other Stationary 2% Forklift 0 40% 1990 2000 2010 2013 2014 Other Christophe PILLOT motive + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2014 [email protected] 83 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET IN 2014: US $ 60 BILLION (1) Battery market in 2014 (M$)
Others 70 000 18 000 SLI Other Applications Automotive 16 000 Marine Portable 60 000 The Rechargeable Medical devices Battery Market and Other Applications Main Trends Marine 14 000 Wheelchair 2014-2025 Medical devices 50 000 Medical Cart Wheelchair SLI 12 000 Medical Cart Other Stationary
Other Stationary 40 000 Seismic 10 000 Seismic US $ 20 ESS ESS Automotive Billion for 8 000 Other Stand-by 30 000 “other” Other Stand-by applications UPS UPS Portable BATTERIES 2015 Telecom 6 000 Telecom October 6, 2015 Other Motive 20 000 Nice, FRANCE Forklift Other Motive 4 000 Power Tools Forklift E-Bikes 10 000 2 000 Power Tools
E-Bikes Christophe PILLOT 0 0 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Lead Acid LIB [email protected] (1) Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included 84 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015
TOTAL POTENTIAL MARKET ANALYZED IN THE SURVEY (M$, PACK LEVEL1) Application details US$ 20 Billion in 2014 (1)
Battery Market (%) E-Bikes Power Tools 8% Power Tools E-bikes 13% Forklifts 20% Forklift Motive Others 1% Other Motive The Rechargeable TOTAL MOTIVE 21% Marine 3% Other App Telecom Battery Market and 6% Telecom back-up 16% Medical UPS Main Trends devices UPS 14% E-Bikes Other Stand-by 2014-2025 Industrial Misc. Standby 2% 6% 12% Stationary ESS 3% Power Tools ESS Seismic (1) 1% 9% Seismic Other Stationary 6% Other Stationary Forklift 20% Total STATIONARY 42% UPS 14% Medical Cart TOTAL INDUSTRIAL 63% Medical Cart 1% Wheelchair Wheelchair 0% Telecom Medical devices 17% Medical Device 7% Marine Marine 3% Others (2) 6% Other App (2) BATTERIES 2015 TOTAL 17 600 October 6, 2015 Nice, FRANCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2013 1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC [email protected] converters, invertors…) not included 85 2- Other App: Military, aerospace, Oil & Gas, Railways, Aviation, Utility metering,… MARKET SEGMENT SYNTHESIS TEMPLATE
Battery market in LIB market in value ASP in 2012 & LIB main drivers & value 2012/2025 - 2012/2025 - 2020 limiters CAGR CAGR
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025
LIB market by Area Major competitors Battery market by Area Major customers
Most important performances LIB Penetration in BATTERIES 2015 characteristic, ASP, % of total device October 6, 2015 Average capacity Nice, FRANCE LIB most valuable improvement
LIB market in M$ LIB form factor
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 86
1- E-BIKES LIB: FROM US$ 1,1 BILLION IN 2013 TO 2,7 IN 20201 – CAGR: +18%
Market 2013-2020 (US $, Main drivers Main Limiters Million) – CAGR: 13% E-bike in China: Banning of In Japan, US and Europe, E- 5000 1 ASP : gasoline powered bikes are already equipped 2012: 600 $/Kwh 4000 motorcycles in china boost by Li-ion 2020: 400 $/kWh 3000 e-bikes: “Necessary” In China the only LIB The Rechargeable 2000 In US, Europe and Japan, parameter to choose a Battery Market and Lead Acid “Green image”, sport, battery is the cost Main Trends 1000 leisure, transportation: Chinese E-bike ASP: 320 ASP : “Environment & Health” 2014-2025 0 $/kWh: very difficult to 2012: 80 $/kWh LIB penetration in China penetrate this market 2020: 70 $/kWh from 6 to 14%
Battery 2013 by Area LIB 2020 by Area Competitors Customers 10% 10% 3% US 3% US BMZ (Germany) Bosch, 10% 14% AXEON2 (UK) Europe Europe Panasonic HITECH (Taiwan) Bion-X China China Phylion (China) 77% 73% TranX-Z Others Others … + > 500 e-bike mfg. BATTERIES 2015 LIB Penetration (% device) LIB market (M$) October 6, 2015 Battery needs LIB needs Nice, FRANCE 100% 3 000 Performances characteristic Most valuable 50% 2 000 1- Cycle life improvements 0%
2-Energy density 1- Price decrease
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2012 1 000 2- Cycle life 3- Low cost 3- Fast charge LIB Penetration - Average Capacity:300 Wh Form factor: from China 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 cylindrical to Laminate Christophe PILLOT US, EU, Jap CHINA Others No standardization + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] Note: 1- Pack level – 2- A Johnson Matthey affiliate Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 87
2- POWER TOOLS LIB: FROM US$ 0,8 BILLION IN 2012 TO 1,2 IN 20201 – CAGR: +7%
Market 2013-2020 (US $, LIB Main LIB main Million) – CAGR:+3% drivers Limiters
2000 Higher voltage LIB average sales price ASP1 2012:560 $/Kwh NiCd substitution Reliability 1500 2020: 390 $/Kwh NiCd regulation High rate discharge Cordless power tools & Fast charge The Rechargeable 1000 Li-ion gardening tools market Life time Battery Market and 500 increase (+4% per year) NICd Main Trends Higher energy density, less 0 2014-2025 ASP: weight 2012: 335 $/kWh 2020: 275 $/kWh
Battery 2013 by Area LIB 2020 by Area Competitors Customers >75% of the power tools Power tools will be Cell/Pack Mfg.: TOP3: Bosch Makita made in China Samsung, Panasonic, are made in China B&D Jingding Local demand in Europe, Sony (> 75%) But, battery pack could TTI Hilti be made on the end- US, next to the end user Pack makers: AXEON … user area (Ex: Bosch – to increase flexibility & (Bosch),
Axeon Poland) Just in Time mfg.
BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 LIB Penetration LIB market (M$) Battery needs LIB needs Nice, FRANCE 60% 1 500 Important characteristic: Most valuable 40% 1- Higher power & capacity improvements 20% 1 000 1- Price decrease 0% 2-Fast recharge 500 2012 ASP NiCd: 350 $/kWh 2- Fast charge - 2012 ASP LIB: 550 $/kWh 3- High rate discharge Average Capacity: 60 Wh Form factor: Cylindrical
Christophe PILLOT LIB Penetration
2018 2014 2016 2020 2012 No standardization + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses Note: : 1- Pack level 88
3- MOTIVE INDUSTRIAL: FORKLIFTS2 LIB: FROM US$ 60 MILLION IN 2013 TO 375 IN 20201 – CAGR: >40%
Market 2013-2020 (US $, Main drivers Main Limiters Million) – CAGR:7%
6000 Where economies are Low penetration of E- ASP healthy, they reflect strong forklift in Asia 5000 2012:550 $/kWh motive power production High LIB capital price (x 5 2020: 365 $/kWh 4000 compare to lead acid) LIB Europe & US got high E- The Rechargeable 3000 forklift ratio compare to Asia Safety concerns 2000 in two of the lift truck Battery Market and Lead Acid LIB higher life time (* 3 to 5) 1000 types, sit-down rider and Main Trends Multiple shift operation high reach, the 0 ASP 2014-2025 where battery change is counterbalance for the lift 2012:150 $/kWh required (time consuming) 2020: 144 $/kWh truck is supplied mainly by a lead acid battery
Battery 2012 by Area LIB 2020 by Area Competitors Customers
Europe – largest producer 7% Lead Acid & LIB: Enersys For lead acid, After market of motive power batteries – US (35%), Exide (10%), East represent 60% of the market: lot has higher percentage of Europe Penn (10%), Hoppecke of different customers (industrials) electric vs. gas trucks (75%) 42% (10%), Crown (10%) For LIB, OEM Forklift: TOYOTA, than in N. America (64%) – 51% LIB systems: BMZ, Kion , Jungheinrich, NACCO , China: High % of Crown, Mitsubishi Caterpillar Lithium Balance, … Gas/propane trucks (> 80%) Others BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 LIB Penetration LIB market (M$) Battery needs LIB needs Nice, FRANCE 8% 300 important characteristic Most valuable 6% 200 1-high charge/discharge rates improvements 4% and capacity 1- Price 100 2- Convince customers on 2% 2-high life time, range, “total cost of ownership” 0% - Form factor: large format Average Capacity: 22 kWh prismatic – size Christophe PILLOT standardization + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses Note: : 1- Pack level 2- Including all kind of Material handling equipment 89
4- STATIONARY: TELECOM MARKET LIB: FROM US$ 0,2 BILLION IN 2013 TO 1,1 IN 20201 – CAGR: >50%
Market 2013-2020 (US $, Main drivers main Limiters Million) – CAGR: +7%
5 000 LIB developed for new Lead Acid Vs. Li-ion… ASP equipment 2012: 600 $/kWh Lead Acid capital cost 5 4 000 Increased Bandwidth 2020: 400 $/kWh times cheaper requirements 3 000 Total cost of ownership LIB Wireless Market driving growth The Rechargeable could be compare with 2 000 Strong Network Growth in Battery Market and Lead Acid Lead acid 1 000 China, India, E. Europe & S. Main Trends America 2014-2025 - ASP 2G-> 3G -> 4G … need new 2012: 200 $/kWh equipment's
2020: 185 $/kWh
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2012 LIB: Specially in Hot climate Competitors Battery 2012 by Area Battery 2020 by Area Customers China Lead Acid & LIB: Enersys Not so many customers; big China (35%), Exide (10%), and 8%14% 5% Europe Europe 16% local suppliers in each telecom carriers in each 16% 20% US countries countries 28% US 21% India India LIB systems: “large 14% 19% Others 20% Others 19% companies” : SAFT, others? Japan Japan BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 LIB Penetration LIB market (M$) Battery needs LIB needs Nice, FRANCE 20% 1 500 Most important Most valuable 15% 1 000 performances characteristic improvements 10% 1- Hot T°C performances 1- Capital costs 2- Safety Proof 5% 500 2- Customized for the new Equipment network 3- Reliability 0% - Customized battery Average Capacity: 5-10 kWh developed for new
Christophe PILLOT modules (100 Ah)
2018 2014 2016 2020 2012 equipment + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses Note: : 1- Pack level 90
5- STATIONARY: UPS MARKET LIB: FROM US$ < 0,1 BILLION IN 2013 TO 0,5 IN 20201 – CAGR>+40%
Market 2013-2020 (US $, Main drivers main Limiters Million) – CAGR: +4%
3 500 UPS Drivers: Safety could be an ASP New Data Storage Centers important issue here 3 000 2012:600 $/kWh Mobile Society 2 500 2020: 400 $/kWh LIB drivers: 2 000 LIB Less volume, less place The Rechargeable 1 500 > Life time Battery Market and Lead Acid 1 000 LIB is more needed where Main Trends 500 data are sensitive ASP 2014-2025 - Li-ion battery could also help 2012: 200 $/kWh
2020: 170 $/kWh to save electricity during
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2012 peak time
Battery 2012 by Area Battery 2020 by Area Competitors Customers China Lead Acid & LIB: Enersys Few leaders/many products: (35%), Exide (10%), and China Emerson/Liebert 8%14% 5%16% Europe local suppliers in each Europe Schneider/APC 16% 20% US countries US 21% Eaton Powerware 28% India LIB systems: local India 19% Gamatronic 14% Others companies providing > 20% Others 19% Riello Japan services Japan BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 LIB Penetration LIB market (M$) Battery needs LIB needs Nice, FRANCE 10% 600 Most important Most valuable 8% performances characteristic improvements 6% 400 1- Back-up at high current 1- Convince on Safety 4% 200 2- weight, volume 2- Capital Cost 2% 3- Reliability 0% - 3- life time Form factor: Cylindrical Average Capacity: 3-5 kWh New development for new Christophe PILLOT modules equipment + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] Note: UPS: Uninterruptible Power Supply Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses APC: American Power Conversion 91
THE BATTERY MARKET FOR ENERGY STORAGE SYSTEM (ESS) ESS segmentation ESS by power rating
Kinetic Flywheels Mecanical
The Rechargeable Hydroelectric (PHS) Battery Market and Fuel Potential Main Trends Compressed Air (CAES) 2014-2025
ESS Electrochemistry BATTERIES & Flow Batteries Chemical
Photo synthesis & Biomass
Thermal Gaz, H2
PHS: Pumped Hydroelectric Storage CAES: Compressed air energy storage Source: Electricity Storage Association
BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 Nice, FRANCE
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: KEMA, Market Evaluation for Energy Storage in the United States, 2012 [email protected] 92 6- ESS (LARGE SYSTEMS2) LIB: FROM US$ 0,2 BILLION IN 2013 TO 0,7 IN 20201 – CAGR: +30%
Battery Market 2013-2020 (US Main drivers main Limiters $, Million) – CAGR: +25%
1400 Integration of Renewable Not a mature market ASP energy 1200 2012:900 $/kWh Business model ? 1000 2020: 500 $/kWh Poor electricity network Regulation? 800 Gas Turbine Replacement Battery capital cost (leasing LIB The Rechargeable 600 Purpose: could be a good solution) Battery Market and 400 Others Frequency Regulation Main Trends 200 Peak Shifting 2014-2025 0 ASP Load Leveling 2012: 500 $/kWh
2020: 450 $/kWh
Battery 2012 by Area Battery 2012 by type Competitors Customers All big LIB suppliers: Panasonic, > 100 kWh Samsung, LG, … Large Electricity providers CHINA 11% A123, New comers with renewable 6%16% 22% 1% Johnson Controls US 10-100 energy Yuasa kWh Often support by local 11% JAPAN SAFT government 45% EUROPE 88% < 10 kWh Tesla Altairnano OTHERS … BATTERIES 2015
October 6, 2015 LIB Penetration LIB market (M$) Battery needs LIB needs Nice, FRANCE 60% 800 Most important Most valuable 600 40% performances characteristic improvements 400 1- Life time 1- cost of ownership 20% 200 2- Power capabilities Customized development 0% - 3- Cost Average Capacity: from 10 Christophe PILLOT kWh to MWh + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses Note: : 1- Pack level – 2- > 10 kWh systems 93 : 7- ESS (SMALL SYSTEMS)2 LIB: FROM US$ 40 MILLION IN 2013 TO 170 IN 20201 – CAGR>30%
Battery Market 2013-2020 (US Main drivers main Limiters $, Million) – CAGR: +27%
350 Residential back-up Not a mature market ASP 300 2012:8003 $/kWh PV Integration Business model ? 250 2020: 400 $/kWh « Net Zero Energy Home » Regulation? 200 Electricity cost Battery capital cost (leasing The Rechargeable LIB 150 Government subsidiaires could be a good solution) Battery Market and 100 Others Main Trends 50 2014-2025 - ASP 2012: 450 $/kWh 2020: 400 $/kWh
Main countries Battery 2012 by type Competitors Customers Germany All big LIB suppliers: Panasonic, > 100 kWh Samsung, LG, … Large Electricity suppliers France 11% A123, Private companies: (Ex: 1% Johnson Controls US 10-100 Solarcities, One Energy Corp., Yuasa kWh SunRun’s) Japan SAFT PV residential solution 88% < 10 kWh Tesla Altairnano providers: Panasonic, Kyocera, … Sharp, SMA … BATTERIES 2015 LIB Penetration LIB market (M$) October 6, 2015 Battery needs LIB needs Nice, FRANCE 60% 200 Most important Most valuable 150 40% performances characteristic improvements 100 1- Energy density 1- Cost of ownership 20% 50 2-Life time 2- Life time 0% - 3- Power capabilities 3- Charge acceptance Average Capacity: < 10 kWh Customized development Christophe PILLOT Standardization? + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] Note: : 1- Pack level – 2- < 10 kWh systems for home or office Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 3- Battery pack only, not including the management system, power electronics, installation, … 94 The total price of a 7 kWh system from SAFT is 10 k€ (1800 $/kWh) THE BATTERY MARKET FOR ESS IN 2013-2020 AVICENNE ENERGY estimates the ESS market in 2013 On Sept 2011 NGK-manufactured NaS < 500 M$ batteries plant caught fire. Following the incident, NGK temporarily suspended ESS market in MWh worldwide production
The Rechargeable 2000 Battery Market and
Main Trends 1500
2014-2025 1000
MWh 500 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Li-ion Others ESS market in M$ worldwide BATTERIES 2015 2000 October 6, 2015
Nice, FRANCE 1500
1000 M$ 500
Christophe PILLOT 0 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 [email protected] 95 2013 OTHER APPLICATION MARKET US$ MILLION US $ 18 Billion in 2013
6000 4%
The Rechargeable 5000 21% Battery Market and Main Trends 4% 2014-2025 4000 71%
3000 Others 2000 Li-ion Ni based 1000 Lead Acid
BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 0 Nice, FRANCE
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 MOTIVE STATIONNARY MEDICAL [email protected] 96 2020 OTHER APPLICATION MARKET US$ MILLION US $ 28 Billion in 2020 – CAGR 2013/2020: +8%
6000 4%
The Rechargeable 5000 Battery Market and 35% Main Trends 59% 2014-2025 4000 2% 3000 Others 2000 Li-ion Ni based 1000 Lead Acid
BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 0 Nice, FRANCE
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 MOTIVE STATIONNARY MEDICAL [email protected] 97 “OTHER APPLICATIONS” 10 B$ POTENTIAL MARKET1 Battery market in 2012 (M$) Battery market in 2020 (M$)
18 000 18000 Other Applications
Marine 16 000 16000 The Rechargeable Medical devices Battery Market and Wheelchair 14 000 14000 Main Trends 2014-2025 Medical Cart 12 000 12000 Other Stationary
Seismic 10 000 10000
ESS 8 000 8000 Other Stand-by
UPS 6 000 > US$ 10 B 6000
BATTERIES 2015 Telecom > 7 US$ B October 6, 2015 Nice, FRANCE Other Motive 4 000 4000 Forklift 2 000 2000 Power Tools
E-Bikes 0 0 Christophe PILLOT Lead Acid LIB Lead Acid LIB + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2013 For Power tools, NiCd batteries are used rather than lead acid batteries 98 1- Pack level LI-ION CELL & PACK MARKET DETAILS Portable: from 29 to 65 GWh 2014 -2025 Automotive: from 10 to 60 GWh / S2: 100 GWh Others: from 7 to 32 GWh Li-ion cell market (B$) Li-ion Pack market1 (B$) 45 45
40 40 The Rechargeable Battery Market and 35 35 Main Trends 2014-2025 30 30
25 Others (2) 25 Others (2) Automotive Automotive 20 20 Portable Portable
15 15
BATTERIES 2015 10 10 October 6, 2015 Nice, FRANCE 5 5
0 0 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025
1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included Christophe PILLOT 2- Others: Batteries for Power tools, E-bikes, Industrial, medical… + 33 1 47 78 46 00 S2: Chinese EV market explosion [email protected] 99 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis 2015 TAKEAWAYS RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET WORLDWIDE Battery Market 2010-2025 2000-2025 CAGR = +10%
Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & 775 GWh electronic devices (smartphones, tablets) 575 GWh For HEV, the battery technology is today the Others NiMH 380 GWh LIB The Rechargeable In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) MWh 280 GWh Battery Market and switch to Li-ion NiMH Main Trends P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: NiCd 2014-2025 6 B$ market in 2015 - 11 B$ in 2020 & 15 B$ in 2025 Lead Acid EV expectations attract large Chemical companies 2000 2010 2020 2025 New materials are needed to meet Automotive > 100 B$ standards (Pack level) 4,3 HEV will account for less than 5% of the 83 B$ 14 automotive sales in 2020 64 B$ 60B$ 16 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020 54B$ 12 Huge Chinese Market appears in 2014: to be BATTERIES 2015 followed ! 25 B$ October 6, 2015 Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% 52 Nice, FRANCE Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume & value A very small EV market in the automotive world 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-6%) will represent a huge market for batteries NiMH (-6%) LIB for 3C (+1%) New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, LIB for xEV (+10%) LIB for Others* (+11%) Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 15% Others (CAGR 2014-2025) Christophe PILLOT in the next 15 years + 33 1 47 78 46 00 In 2020, Energy storage will represent less than Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, [email protected] 5% of the total battery market Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, … 100 THANK YOU
Christophe PILLOT AVICENNE ENERGY The Rechargeable [email protected] Battery Market and Main Trends Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00 2014-2025 Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49
BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 Nice, FRANCE
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 101 About AVICENNE ENERGY
AVICENNE ENERGY
JANUARY 2015
Christophe PILLOT [email protected] +33(0)1 4778 4600 AVICENNE PROFILE
Information for Growth - Powering your company’s market strategy with in-depth research
Creation: 1992, by Ali MADANI The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends Headquarter: Paris 2014-2025 Liaison Office: Japan, USA
AVICENNE Energy Director: Christophe Pillot
BATTERIES 2015 5 consultants The Rechargeable October 6, 2015 Customized A Madani Battery market Nice, FRANCE survey C Pillot 23rd Edition JP Salvat X Zhang A Yassari Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 104 OUR BUSINESS STORY
•AVICENNE Creation 1992 •AVICENNE advised French Industry Ministry on the European battery business opportunities 1994 •AVICENNE open its office in JAPAN
•« BATTERIES » congress 1st edition in Paris The Rechargeable 1999 Battery Market and Main Trends •AVICENNE work on the due diligence process for the sales of SAFT by 2003 ALCATEL 2014-2025
•AVICENNE: expert witness in the NTT-Hydro Quebec conflict 2008
•AVICENNE presented its market forecasts to industrials (CIAPS) in Beijing – 2009 China
•Avicenne developed partnership with BATTERY JAPAN 2010 •20thEdition of “The rechargeable battery market worldwide 2010-2020
BATTERIES 2015 •AVICENNE Energy division is created th October 6, 2015 2011 •13 Edition of BATTERIES Congress Nice, FRANCE •21st Edition of “The rechargeable battery market worldwide 2011-2025 2012
•23rd Edition of our Battery Market Syrvey •16th Edition of BATTERIES Congress in NICE, France 2014 • 1 month mission in China: Qinghai EV Rally, CIBF, 50 companies visited Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 105 OUR METHODOLOGY
Track valuable INFORMATION COLLECTION Information's Primary Research Secondary Research
Executive Interviews Company News & Financials
Vendor Briefings Technology & Product Specs
SIDE Product Demos and Tours Government Data Strategic SUPPLY Economic, Demographic Data The Rechargeable Analysis Battery Market and
Consumer Surveys Case Studies Main Trends Business Leader Surveys Reference Customers
2014-2025
SIDE DEMAND
Presentation of the results MARKET & STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
Qualitative Quantitative Strategic
BATTERIES 2015 Business Models & Company News & SWOT Analysis October 6, 2015 Q&A with Trends Financials Gap Analysis Nice, FRANCE customers Technology Issues Technology & Business Plan Policy & Regulatory Product Specs Value Proposition Factors Government Data Due Diligence Competitive Economic, Merger & Landscape Demographic Data Acquisition Profiles of Key Christophe PILLOT Customer Players + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Evaluation [email protected] METHODOLOGY: EXTENSIVE FIELD RESEARCH TO RETRIEVE & CROSS CHECK INFORMATION
Top management In Depth analysis contact network Cross Check Of applications > 19 000 contacts Analysis
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends Conferences & 2014-2025 Battery Exhibitions Makers
Substitution OEM technologies
BMS Raw materials Electronics BATTERIES 2015 suppliers October 6, 2015 Environment Nice, FRANCE & recycling
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] CUSTOMIZED & MULTICLIENT SURVEY FOR ALL THE VALUE CHAIN
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends Source : Photo from BASF 2014-2025 Raw BMS & Materials Electronics
Batteries BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 Nice, FRANCE
Cooling Power Systems Electronics
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] MORE THAN 200 REFERENCES WORLDWIDE 3M DIALOG SEMICONDUCTOR JOHNSON MATTHEY SAKTI A123 DOW CHEMICAL KODAK SAMSUNG SDI AIR LIQUIDE DOW CORNING KRUGER SANIK AIR PRODUCT DUPONT LAZARD SCHRODER VENTURE AHLSTROM DURACELL LECLANCHÉ SCOTENT ENTREPRISE ALCATEL EDF LEGRAND SEPCELL AMPEREX (ATL) ELECTRO ENERGY LG CHEMICAL SFPZ APPLIED MATERIALS ENER 1 LION CELLS SHENZHEN HIGH POWER TECHNOLOGY ARKEMA ENERGIZER LITTLE FUSE SCHOTT AG AROS SECURITIES EOLITE LILIPUCIAN SKC ARC EPCOS OHG LYNAS CORP SQM ASHLAND ERAMET MATSUSHITA SVE - DASSAULT The Rechargeable ATL AMPEREX ETC AB MICROSOFT SOLVAY Battery Market and AT KEARNEY FACOM MTI MICRO FUEL CELLS SONY AUSTRIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY FALCON BRIDGE MOLTECH STIBAT Main Trends AXEON FAIRSHILD SEMICONDUCTOR MOLYCORP STORCK BAIN FAMEART MOMENTIVE STRATEGY ANALYSIS 2014-2025 BASF FIST MOSAID TECHNOLOGIES TERRAROSSA CAPITAL BATTERY ASSOCIATION OF KOREA FLORIDIENNE DE CHIMIE MOTOROLA TIGER GLOBAL BAYER FMC MUNSTER UNIVERSITY TODA KOGYO BLACK & DECKER FORTU POWER CELL NANOCYL TOTAL BHP BILLITON FRANCE TELECOM NCCP – RUSSIA TOTAL WIRELESS SOLUTION BRAND LICENCING PARNERS (BLP) FREUDENBERG VLIESSTOFFE SE & CO NEC TOYO BOURNS FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE NITECH TOYOTA BOSCH FULTON INNOVATION NKKPC TREOFAN BOOZ GAIA NORILSK NICKEL TYCO BRUCKNER GIL IMPORT BATTERIES LTD. NOVALED UMICORE BUHLER GMBH GS MELCOTEC NTK POWERDEX UNIROSS BYD HC STARCK OLIVER WYMAN URALELEMENT CABOT HILTI OMG INC US NAVY CALL2RECYCLE HITACHI MAXELL ORANGE VARTA CAP X HOLLINGSWORTH & VOSE CIE OSKR VOLTRACK CATELLA HONEYWELL PANASONIC WACKER CHEMIE AG BATTERIES 2015 CARBONE LORRAINE HPL (HIGH POWER LITHIUM) PHILIPS WARBURGPINCUS October 6, 2015 CARLYLE HUTCHINSON PHOTON WILDCAT CATELLA ICC NEXERGY PK & WISE WORLD INDUSTRIAL INFORMATION Nice, FRANCE CATERPILLAR INC. IER PLEXTRONICS CENTER CDN COBALT IGL EXPORT. POWER GENIX WR GRACE & CIE CEA/LITEN INTERNATIONAL COMPONENT CORP. PRAYON YASLAMEN CELGARD INTERNATIONAL RECTIFIER PRISMARK ZEBRA CHEMETALL INTEK PSA ZPOWER CHEMISHE FABRIK BUDENHEIM INTEL RAYOVAC CIBA INTERSIL RECHARGE CIAPS CHINA INCO RENAULT COGEMA ISRAEL CONSULTING RHODIA CONOCO PHILIPS ITRI ROLAND BERGER Christophe PILLOT CRU GROUP ITS ROSKILL INFORMATION SERVICES + 33 1 47 78 46 00 CSC CHALLENGE STRATEGY CHANGE JBC SAFT [email protected] DELTA JETRO SAGENTIA DGA JOHNSON CONTROLS SAINT GOBAIN 109 SPEAKER, CHAIRMAN OR WORKSHOP MODERATOR Tens of INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCES per year
Extended Battery Life Working Group on battery technology development for mobile devices Meeting Tokyo Japan , Dec 2014 – 1h30 Presentation “The battery market for mobile 2013-2025” BATTERIES 2014, FRANCE – (1999-2014) The Rechargeable Owner, chairman & speaker Battery Market and “The battery market 2013-2025” Main Trends INTERNATIONAL Li-ion BATTERY SUMMIT – Dec 2013, Shenzhen, China 2014-2025 “The Li-ion battery raw materials market 2012-2020” AABC Europe, Mainz (2012, 2013, 2015) “The Lithium ion raw material battery market 2010-2020” THE INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR - FLORIDA Fort Lauderdale, Florida , March 2014 – 2h tutorial “HEV, PHEV & EV market 2010-2020 ; Battery is the key” (From 2004 to 2014) EVER 2009, 2011, MONACO “Challenges for EV market in Europe” EVS 2011, 2013 “Battery market for automotive industry” BATTERIES 2015 CIAPS (China Industrial Association of Power sources), BEIJING, Dec 2009 October 6, 2015 “Advanced battery market & raw materials worldwide” Nice, FRANCE Advanced Battery for Vehicles, IQPC, Frankfort, 2009, 2010, 2012 Chairman & speaker, “The battery business 2009-2020” EET-2008 European Ele-Drive, MOTOR SHOW GENEVA, International Advanced Mobility Forum – Geneva Motor Show (Professor Gaston Maggetto Award: C. Pillot as the best rated paper & presentation by EET-2008 Scientific Reviewing Committee) “The HEV & EV market trends & main challenges” Christophe PILLOT China Industry Battery Fair 2006, 2010, 2014 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 “The Chinese battery Industry” [email protected] …
AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS
HEV powered by Lithium ion battery EV sold, in million units, worldwide, forecasts from 2008 to 2014 2010 - 2020
5 2,5 IIT 2007 IIT (MARCH 2011)
The Rechargeable Battery Market and DEUTSCHE BANK (2012) 2 4 Main Trends IIT 2008
2014-2025
1,5 IIT 2009 3 IIT (MARCH 2010)
IIT 2010 1 2
ROLAND BERGER (2011) Million Million HEV poweredLIB by
BATTERIES 2015 REALITY
October 6, 2015 ROLAND BERGER (2012) Number of EV sold worldwide (Million) worldwide sold EV of Number Nice, FRANCE 0,5 AVICENNE 2007 1 AVICENNE 2007-2012
AAB (2012)
0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2015 2020 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011 [email protected] 111 BATTERIES 2015
www.batteriesevent.com
3 days congress in France (Paris, Nice, Cannes) The Rechargeable th Battery Market and 17 Edition (first edition in 1999) Main Trends 2014-2025 500 attendees 40 Booths Battery makers, raw materials suppliers, IC & BMS suppliers, tests, machining, coating, 80 international experts: BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 Nice, FRANCE Researchers, industrial process, marketing, financials,
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] SUMMARY
A small team dedicated We will help and support on the battery industry your growth since almost 20 years
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Working with large Main Trends group worldwide: FMC, 2014-2025 Umicore, Dupont, Dow,
Panasonic, LG, Flexibility Samsung, JCI, Nokia, Expert Network Bosch, Siemens, Toyota, Renault, … Methodology BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 Synthetic presentation Nice, FRANCE to management & CEO Knowledge of major groups
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] THANK YOU
Christophe PILLOT AVICENNE ENERGY The Rechargeable [email protected] Battery Market and Main Trends Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00 2014-2025 Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49
BATTERIES 2015 October 6, 2015 Nice, FRANCE
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 114