TOKYO TATEMONO Fumio Inada General Manager Investment Management Division REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY
MARKET FORECAST
80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 06/7 07/1 07/7 08/1 08/7 09/1 09/7 01/7 02/1 02/7 03/1 03/7 04/1 04/7 05/1 05/7 06/1
residential development office leasing brokerage residential brokerage commercial
Reference:The Land Insutite of Japan OFFICE MARKET ・・・・・・Supply-Demand
Tokyo 23 wards
1,500,000㎡ 100%
1,250,000㎡
1,000,000㎡
750,000㎡
500,000㎡ 90% 250,000㎡
0㎡
-250,000㎡
-500,000㎡
-750,000㎡ 80% 2002y 2003y 2004y 2005y 2010y 1998y 1999y 2000y 2001y 1994y 1995y 1997y 1996y 2006y 2007y 2008y 2009y 1992y 1993y
supply net absorption rate of occupancy
Reference: CB Richard Ellis Research Institute K.K. OFFICE MARKET ・・・・・・Average Asking Rent & Rate of Occupancy
Tokyo 23 wards
average asking rent rate of ccupancy
30,000 100% 98.2% 97.4%
96.7% 98% 96.2% 96.0% 95.7%
25,000 95.3%
94.6% 96% 94.1% 94.1% 94.0% 94.0% 93.9% 93.5% 93.1% 94%
20,000 92.0%
90.9% 92% 90.4% 15,000 90% 88% 10,000 86% 84% 5,000 82% 14,220 13,940 13,640 13,320 13,030 20,270 17,350 16,120 15,610 15,340 14,830 14,400 13,050 13,590 14,590 13,580 0 28,580 24,230 80% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2009 1998 1999 2000 2001 1997 2006 2007 2008 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Reference: CB Richard Ellis Research Institute K.K. OFFICE MARKET
Tokyo Tatemono's buildings at CHUO KU base year = 1997 115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70 1997y 1998y 1999y2000y 2001y2002y 2003y 2004y2005y 2006y 2007y 2008y 2009y
Average target rent for new contract Average rent of continued contract OFFICE MARKET ・・・・・・Forecast For Rent Price Index
50,000 forecast stndard 45,000 optimistic pessimistic 40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1990 1991 1992 1995 1996 2014 1993 1994
Reference:NLI Research Institute BROKERAGE ・・・・・・Secondary condominium in the Greater Tokyo Area
Ten thousand yen Number of transactions & average price 1991~2009 transactions average price
39000 Inventory January-2009~January-2010 37000 35000 33000 31000 29000 27000 25000 09/01 09/02 09/03 09/04 09/05 09/06 09/07 09/08 09/09 09/10 09/11 09/12 10/01
Reference: Real Estate Information Network For East Japan BROKERAGE ・・・・・・Transactions over ¥100million
1-6 7-12 1-6 7-12 1-6 7-12 1-6 7-12 1-6 7-12 1-6 7-12 1-6 7-12 1-6 7-12 1-6 7-12 1-6 7-12 1-6 7-12
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Reference: Tokyo Tatemono Real Estate Sales Co.,Ltd Real Estate Investment Market
MARKET FORECAST(in 6months)
2008-october
better good stay bad worse
Reference:NLI Research Institute Real Estate Investment Market
MARKET FORECAST(in 6months)
2009-october
better good stay bad worse
Reference:NLI Research Institute RALLY・・・・・・・Prime Location Otemachi・Marunouchi・nihonbashi Otemachi 1-Chome Project Phase 2
Otemachi 1-Chome Project Phase 1 Otemachi1-6 project
TOKYO SANKEI Bldg.
Muromachi East JFE Bldg. Progect Reconstruction project
Palace Hotel Nihonbashi Mitsui Tower Reconstruction project
Marunouchi 1-4 Marunouchi Oazo Project
Mitsubishi UFJ Trust And Bankingu Bldg. Sapia Tower Nihon kogyo Club Bldg.
Shin-Marunouchi Bldg.
COREDO Nihonbashi Mitsubishi Shoji Bldg.
Marunouchi Trust City Marunouchi Bldg.
Marunouchi Central Bldg. Meiji Yasuda Seimei Bldg.
Gran Tokyo North Tower Marunouchi Park Bldg.
Gran Tokyo South Tower Tokyo Bldg.
Kyobashi 3 chome JP tower project
Transactions・・・・・・・Prime Location Otemachi・Marunouchi
Resona Maruha Bldg 42Billion yen Dec-2009 Tokyu Reit→SPC(Mitsubishi Estate )
Asahi Seimei Otemachi Bldg. Mar-2009 80billion yen Asahi Mutual Life Insurance → SPC(Mitsubishi Estate )
AIG otemachi Bldg Mar-2009 115Billion yen AIG→Nippon Life Insurance Company
Pacific Century Place Marunouchi Dec-2009 140billion yen SPC(daVinci Advisors) →Secured Capital Japan Otemachi1-6 project
Otemachi Forest Kyobashi 3 chome project