Wealth Report 2009

the wealth report 2009

Property: Tracking prices in the world’s prime residentIAl locations assets: how the markets for classic cars, wine and art are faring Interview: city designer Alejandro Gutierrez shares his visionary ideas opinion: money isn’t everything, says philosopher Alain de Botton

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Market coverage: UK  Europe  Caribbean  Asia  Australia  Africa Residential: Agency Sales & Lettings  Equestrian & Rural  Financial Services Residential Development  Valuations & Consultancy Commercial: Agency & Capital Markets  Trading Properties  Professional Services  Financial Services ) richardpowers.co.uk ( PHOTOGRAPH: Richard Powers Powers Richard PHOTOGRAPH: wealth n Contents Attitudes Growing concerns 32 1. a large amount How global farmland Welcome letter and Attitudes to wealth 12 of money or values are faring during contributors 5 Where HNWIs invest, possessions. how and why the economic downturn 2. Econ. all goods Causes for concern 16 Trading places 34 Monitor How the credit crisis is Asian financial centres and services with World overview 6 affecting the trend towards will overtake London, monetary value. Sebastian Dovey, of Scorpio philanthropy according to Joergen Partnership, assesses the Oerstroem Moeller Money matters? 20 impact of the economic 3. an abundance There’s more to wealth than downturn on the super rich or great profusion: a healthy bank balance, says Trends The future foretold 8 philosopher Alain de Botton a wealth of gifts. The art of investment 36 A panel of experts dissects Unravelling the allure of 4. Arch. wellbeing key economic issues Property art, cars and wine for the or prosperity. Rouble trouble 10 modern investor Why Russia’s economy New horizons 23 What’s next? 40 is feeling the chill, Ten emerging global The latest fashions in by Edward Lucas opportunities property, interiors and Prime property 26 luxury travel, as identified The annual PIRI index by Katherine Vaughan World Cities Survey 29 Design for the times 44 The new Knight Frank index Arup’s Alejandro ranks the world’s top cities Gutierrez shares his vision for sustainable cities Contacts 47

Notes and definitions: HNWI is an acronym for 'high net worth individual’, a person whose investible assets, excluding their principal residence, total between $1m and $10m. An UHNWI (ultra high net worth individual) is a person whose investible assets, excluding primary residence, are valued at between $10m and $100m plus. The term ‘prime property’ equates to the most desirable, and normally most expensive, property in a defined location. Commonly, but not exclusively, prime property markets are areas where demand has a significant international bias. Exchange rates: unless otherwise stated these were calculated using the rate on 2 January 2009. The Wealth Report 2009 Attitudes Survey: the participants of the survey comprised 60 Citi Private Bank wealth managers around the world, representing around 2,000 HNWIs. Survey conducted between 1 December 2008 and 31 January 2009. Written and edited by Andrew Shirley and Liam Bailey, Knight Frank LLP. For research and press enquiries: Liam Bailey, Knight Frank LLP, 55 Baker Street, London W1U 8AN; +44 (0)20 7629 8171 Cover image: Richard Powers Colour repro: Colour Systems Printing: The Westdale Press Ltd. The Wealth Report 2009 is published by Redwood (7 St Martin's Place, London WC2N 4HA; +44 (0)20 7747 0700) on behalf of Knight Frank LLP in association with Citi Private Bank. For Knight Frank: Head of Residential Research Liam Bailey Head of Rural Research Andrew Shirley Marketing and Communications Marisa Ling. For Citi Private Bank: Head of Business Development David Poole Marketing and Communications Susan Tether, Alison Taylor. For Redwood: Editor Alison Tyler Art Director Jo Raynsford Deputy Editor Marcus Trower. With thanks to Chris Hodgson and Chris Hubbard. Account Manager Kirsty Ware Creative Director Paul Kurzeja Editorial Director Sara Cremer. © Knight Frank LLP 2009. The views expressed in this report are collated by the authors from opinions expressed by individuals working within or alongside the property and financial industries.A lthough high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in this report, no legal responsibility can be accepted by Knight Frank Residential Research or Knight Frank LLP for any loss or damage resultant from the contents of this document. This material does not necessarily represent the view of Knight Frank LLP in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is allowed with proper reference to Knight Frank Residential Research. Knight Frank LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England with registered number OC305934. Our registered office is 55 Baker Street, London W1U 8AN, where you may look at a list of members’ names.

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©2009 Citigroup. All rights reserved Citibank. N.A., Member FDIC Contributors We l c o m e to the 2009 edition of Andrew Edward The Wealth Report, the third such collaboration Shirley Lucas between Knight Frank and Citi Private Bank. The Head Lucas has Over the past 12 months the economic outlook has of Rural been covering Property Research at Knight Russia and Eastern Europe become even more uncertain. Most of the developed Frank, Shirley edited this since 1986 for the likes of The world is now in recession, and even the emerging edition of The Wealth Report. Independent, BBC and most He formerly covered UK and recently, The Economist, for economies have been forced to pause for breath. Every global property markets as which he was the Moscow commentator accepts 2009 will be tough. Our Attitudes Business and Property Editor Bureau Chief from 1998 to at the UK’s leading farming 2002 and is now Central and Survey (page 12) indicates clearly that HNWIs will look magazine. He has an Eastern Europe Correspondent. to protect their wealth from the ravages of the international background, His book, The New Cold War: downturn with an emphasis firmly on security and having worked on agricultural How the Kremlin Menaces projects in Asia and Africa. both Russia and the West, was transparency rather than risk. Farmland focus 32 published in February last year. The tangible nature of property means it is well Future wealth trends 10 placed to benefit from this shift in emphasis, and there are signs that some mature prime property markets, Katherine Liam such as London and New York, have readjusted to price Vaughan Bailey levels that offer good value for purchasers. For some After reading The Head of emerging markets, the rollercoaster ride looks set to English at Knight Frank’s continue. A full analysis of prime global markets is Brasenose College, Oxford, market-leading Residential Vaughan spent 10 years Research team, Bailey is a included on page 26, and we recommend 10 locations working at The Spectator, recognised authority on and sectors that offer potential for growth on page 23. where she was Strategic residential and property trends, Director, and later at and is widely quoted in the As property is just one aspect of wealth, we have international art magazine, media. He works with clients expanded the scope of The Wealth Report by including Apollo, as Associate Publisher. in the UK, US, Australia and She is now a freelance writer Europe, advising on their an investigation into the performance of alternative specialising in luxury brands. market strategies. assets, from art and cars to wine (page 36), and an Luxury trends 40 Prime property 26 assessment of the state of the philanthropy sector (page 16). Influential thinkers, such as Alain de Botton (page 20), also share their views on how the world will Jon Alain de adjust to life post credit crunch. Neale Botton We hope you enjoy reading the report. Knight Frank's Born in Zurich, Head of Switzerland Development Research is in 1969, de Botton now lives in a former journalist with five London. A writer of essayistic years’ experience of writing books that have been described about property and housing. as giving a philosophy of A former Residential Editor everyday life, de Botton also of Estates Gazette, he has helps to run the School of Life particular expertise in in London, which is dedicated to residential development, a new vision of education. His Patrick Ramsay Peter Charrington regeneration, planning and next book, The Pleasures and HEAD OF RESIDENTIAL HEAD OF Citi PRIVATE BANK UK government policy. Sorrows of Work, will be Knight Frank Citi Private Bank Attitudes to philanthropy 16 published later this year. The meaning of wealth 20

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status report GLOBAL WEALTH DISTRIBUTION (% of total number of c r u n c h HNWIs by region, 2008*) 25% t i m e asia pacific What impact has the global economic downturn had on the fortunes of the 3% world’s super rich? Sebastian Dovey, of middle east Scorpio Partnership, sets out his view & africa illustration by NICK REDDYHOFF 28% europe

ealthy investors across the world have 37% been as shocked by the severity of the north current financial crisis as the average america investor. To a degree, many super wealthy have fared slightly better, as their professional advisers will have been able to 7% latin america forecast the storm and they would have moved & caribbean into a more defensive asset allocation as much as 12 months ago. However, the big question on everyone’s mind is how long the current economic conditions will last – and here even the super wealthy do not have the answer. Inevitably, the next question is: when will be the right time to get back into the market in terms of investing? At the end of 2008, I was with a family in Singapore who felt that the risk of being slightly early to the market was going to money are undergoing complete revision due to the intense review. Investors now look at financial slowdown in property investment interest be worth taking in the first quarter of 2009. They turmoil. My best guess is that the mature economies institutions in a totally different light. There is en masse, there are some specialist super rich also freely acknowledged that they were basing that are supported heavily by government “Both buyers a loss of confidence that the institutions are as investors who are now beginning to deploy capital this assessment on a hunch rather than any intervention and a strong currency will recover more and sellers have mighty as they claim. in new property ventures. mathematical certainties. quickly. In particular, we would look to European to re-engage Indeed, in my view, we have shifted into a new We can expect some big changes in the year Global wealth distribution remained broadly countries. But there are also certain emerging with the concept world order for wealth management where clients ahead: clients will want to take much greater control static last year following a period of strong growth markets, such as South Africa, which have not been will actively seek out independent advice and of their wealth matters. This is perfectly reasonable. in emerging markets. As the credit crunch and as substantively affected and may show green shoots of responsible recognise this as a value solution. Strange though In many ways, I am very excited about this market recession unfold, the distribution will remain the of recovery earlier. and realistic this may sound, I think this is going to be a good condition. For over a decade I have been calling same globally, although in absolute terms the In terms of wealth management, the world’s investing” thing in the long run. Both buyers and sellers have for change in the industry, with greater respect number of HNWIs will inevitably fall, as most super rich, particularly in Europe, are beginning to re-engage with the concept of responsible and toward the process of offering advice and building individuals have experienced, on average, a fall to seek investment opportunities, and while they realistic investing. a client-centric focus. in total wealth of between 20% and 40%. acknowledge they might not be getting it exactly At the moment, we are hearing of a greater Behind this call is a driving passion to see the Investors will have to begin to accept risk again if right in terms of market timing, they know an appeal among clients toward direct investment. customer – of whatever level of fortune – being they wish to recover some of their wealth, but the opportunity when they see one. One investor The asset classes could be private equity, real estate better served in financial services. While I did not crucial matter remains identifying the right time to suggested to me in Geneva recently that “the best and even venture capital. Critically, the clients want realise it would require a cataclysm to bring about get back into the market and, more specifically, thing to do when you fall off your ‘investment bike’ to know what it is that they are buying, the the change and for the industry to hear my calls, it identifying the right asset classes in which to is to get right back on it”. Private equity and real provenance of the opportunity and also have a is here now, so let us just get on with it. It is time for participate. Here, we expect many of the super rich estate are asset classes of particular interest. greater influence in the outcome. During the last change. And it is time for a new agenda. to lead the way, as they are often at the frontier of But the credit crunch has fundamentally 12 months they have learnt that they do not like the • wealth creation. changed wealth management. This is a critical sense of helplessness that comes with being swept Sebastian Dovey is Managing Partner and Head Predicting where wealth creation will recover issue. We are now in a new era of wealth re-creation, along in the market crises. This is being of Consulting at Scorpio Partnership.

first is almost impossible, as the rules of making and the role of the financial institutions is under Partnership S corpio * S ource: demonstrated in the property market. Despite the www.scorpiopartnership.com

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C risis t a l k s In January, Knight Frank hosted a panel of leading experts from the worlds of investment, property and wealth management in order to How bad is the current recession compared with by governments, intensifies. However, the ability of GH It is likely that there will be protectionist discuss the critical issues affecting the global others you have experienced? regulation to prevent another bear market is movements in particular industries, especially economy. Here are the highlights Nick Burnell The most striking characteristic is its questionable. Indeed, intervention of states in “This is the those that take state funding, as shareholders with breadth, both internationally and across different markets has not led to a substantial resumption of worst recession alternative agendas to the norm join the corporate portraits by Annabel moeller sectors of the economy. Most economic downturns lending so far, although it can be argued it in my working arena. But trade will continue between states and in the recent past have been more concentrated prevented the collapse of the system entirely. lifetime. It companies with regional or global supply chains. the panel geographically and on particular industries. The widespread nature of the current one results from When will property prices stop falling and when connotes One minute we are worrying about inflation, then its root cause in the credit markets, which have will they start to pick up again? profound deflation, then inflation again. What is happening, turned off the tap after a sustained period of RO I think prices will continue to fall for change for the and which should we fear the most? excessive liquidity. The effect of this has been a investment property in secondary and tertiary Anglo-Saxon PW Deflation is today’s principal concern. Sharply radical correction in the pricing of almost every locations throughout 2009, but I think core property business model” deteriorating global growth, prompted by a large asset class, as the disconnect between inflated will reach the bottom this year. People will start synchronous collapse in global trade, is reigniting pricing and fundamentals has been cruelly exposed. buying this type of property because a current yield financial distress. Declining wealth, high levels of of 7% is much better than earning less than 1% in uncertainty and financial disruptions have led to Philip Watson Roger Orf Nick Burnell roger orf This is the worst recession in my working your bank account. sharp declines in demand around the world. Head of Investment President and CEO of Head of Rutley Capital lifetime. It connotes profound change for the Lower commodity prices and rapidly growing Analysis and Advice Group, Citi Property Investors Partners, the real Anglo-Saxon business model. The model is based Dan Thomas The UK housing market is likely to output gaps have led to rapidly declining levels of Citi Private Bank EMEA estate private equity and investment management on leverage and consumption, and the model is continue to come under pressure throughout 2009 inflation in most countries. It is likely that attention business of the broken. It will take three to five years to recover but will hopefully stabilise in 2010 and start to see will eventually turn towards central banks and Knight Frank Group from this downturn. a relatively sound recovery in the years after. Never authorities to ensure reflationary policy is bet against further shocks to the system: the controlled and does not spiral rapidly into heavily Should banks and other financial institutions brace banking bailout has had no discernible effect on inflationary policy. themselves for increased regulation in light of the the supply of mortgages or lending criteria, and failings exposed by the credit crunch, and would that showed no sign of changing in the first quarter How would you rate government attempts to unlock that help prevent a similar scenario in the future? of this year. Buying into an economic recession the credit crunch, and will they work? Philip Watson Without doubt we will see change – the seems ill-advised, and all the indicators suggest this NB I would not rate them highly. The truth is the Dan Thomas Graham Harvey big question is what type. There is no question that year will be tough, with climbing unemployment, taxpayer does not have sufficient financial resources Property Correspondent for Senior Associate at Scorpio momentum towards the establishment of tighter economic contraction and issues around inflation. to rebuild the balance sheets of the major banks, the Financial Times, with a Partnership, a business regulation is underway. Disparate regulation in the and this has to be accepted by government and fresh beat that includes both UK strategy firm dedicated to and global markets the global wealth industry past, such as the imposition of leverage ratios, the People are worried that the recession could usher in policy developed accordingly. An examination of risk weighting of assets and – even more a new era of global protectionism. Do you think that most banks’ balance sheets reveals a large liability fundamentally – the meaning of capital, has led to will happen, and what would be the consequences? component in the shape of bonds. They should be some confusion. This has led to differing scenarios NB There is certainly a risk of this type of knee-jerk obliged to convert these to equity in a manner akin emerging across geographies. Remedies, therefore, reaction. I happen to think, however, that the credit to the recapitalisations by creditors seen in most also differ. A transparent, globally coordinated and crisis will only be solved by concerted international other industries. The government should participate harmonised approach with adequate resourcing action that will eventually occur on a properly alongside to a restricted extent, perhaps only at a would better support today’s global markets. Bank coordinated basis. This approach will be level necessary to protect depositors. nationalisations, whether partial or complete, may fundamentally incompatible with the adoption by serve to speed the process, too, though it is individual countries of strongly protectionist PW This is a difficult question to assess. There was conceivable that immediate concerns, such as policies. Conversely, therefore, were a mood of no dress rehearsal for the crunch. Furthermore, easing credit conditions, may in the short term lead strong protectionism to take root, then I think this governments responded in different ways and over to looser bank capital constraints. would hamper efforts to restore the flow of differing lengths of time. In my opinion, the key international credit and greatly prolong the issue here is how governments interact with their Graham harvey There will be regulatory change, as recession. I think we will see a little protectionism global counterparts to manage this international public and shareholder pressure on financial going on for domestic political reasons, but not at a economic reality, while also managing their institutions, especially those partly or wholly owned level that will be critically dangerous. electorates’ local fears and concerns.• 8 citiprivatebank.com knightfrank.com 9 monitor Future wealth trends Future wealth trends monitor

ussia’s economic performance over the Equities have plunged. Safe government debt yields The public attitude to past eight years has been astounding. almost nothing. Risky commercial debt is worth banks during the crunch Between Vladimir Putin becoming prime next to nothing. Worst of all, our sensible, wealthy Russia in figures... minister in 1999 and stepping down as president Russian may be facing demands from friends and A survey by the All-Russian Public Opinion Research

last year, GDP rose more than six times in nominal associates to repatriate some money to repay $386bn Centre (VTsIOM), ‘People and Banks Amid the The nation’s foreign Finanical Crisis: What Should Depositors Do?’, terms. Poverty halved – only a sixth of Russians live favours and help them out. For those scrambling currency reserves on conducted in October 2008* below the breadline, compared with one-third when for cash, one option might be to sell a prized 4 February, down by more he took office. Once a basket case, Russia became property in London or New York. But the weakening than a third from their peak of $600bn in August 2008. one of the largest economies in the world, paying residential property market means that these flats People who have .4% 40.6% bank deposits 59 off its debts and building up a $600 billion foreign and houses, bought at the top of the market, may be (% of the total 40% number of currency reserve. worth considerably less. The drop in value of the respondents)

rouble in the six months to Yet look a bit more closely and the results are less The most likely solution is an uncomfortable one:

4 February. The currency

impressive. Russia failed to diversify its economy. thrift and patience. The bad thing about being rich

Are not afraid of

hit a historic low against

losing their money

The number of small and medium-sized enterprises is that you have expensive habits. The good thing is

the dollar at a few kopeks

shrank. Reform in public service faltered. Plans for that you can always cut back on them in a downturn. short of 41 roubles.

new roads, schools, hospitals and power stations The bigger questions are about what the

Are afraid of

losing their money

were much-publicised but rarely completed. future holds. Firstly, will the current traumas and 8.7% Corruption rocketed. As Boris Nemtsov and economic pain in Russia herald a future in which The fall in industrial output in November 2008, expert opinion Vladimir Milov have pointed out in their seminal wealth is held more widely and more durably? compared with the previous pamphlet, Putin: The Bottom Line, the results of the Economic downturns have one good feature: they year, according to figures the safest way to save Money past eight years are actually rather feeble. The same highlight the faults of badly managed businesses. published in December. (% of the total number of respondents) point is made, from a different quarter, by Igor That can give the well-managed competitor a Yurgens, who runs a think tank close to the Russian chance to move in. For now, the story in Russia is $42.8 property 51% The average price for Urals Will the president, Dmitri Medvedev. of the politically motivated bailout. But over the crude oil on global markets Gold and Jewellery 19% So when the financial crisis hit Russia, the economy as a whole, the downturn will see more bad in January this year. The sBErbank (Russia’s Largest bank) 17% country was more fragile than it should have been, businesses go bust than good ones – and that is an budget forecast an oil price bear given the recent bonanza. The stock market has opportunity for the entrepreneurial class. of $70. roubles in cash 13% plunged by nearly three-quarters. The rouble – Secondly, will the business class in Russia shares of companies 8% once a symbol of Russia’s recovery from the 1998 develop a political voice? One of the startling 13.8% Buckle? The rate of inflation last foreign cash currency 7% Russia has seen huge levels of wealth creation in economic crisis – has been steadily devaluing. features of opinion poll surveys over the past November. One of the recent years. Edward Lucas, a leading commentator Investors who hold Russian commercial debt eight years has been the clash between Russians’ biggest macro-economic are twitchy. Inflation is high and unemployment appreciation of higher living standards and problems over the previous complaints of business – about tax rules, about bad on the country, evaluates what the global recession two years, inflation remains is rising. The rickety financial system has not political stability, and their generally gloomy stubbornly high. roads and about silly regulations – are the will now mean for its economy and super rich collapsed, but it is in poor health. For many who feelings about the nitty-gritty performance of foundation of political pluralism. have done well out of the past eight years, these are the government. Is corruption getting better or Thirdly, if the business people of Russia do illustration by luke wilson worrying times. worse? Worse, say the polls – and president Dmitri demand a better deal, will the Kremlin actually A sensible, wealthy Russian would typically Medvedev agrees. Are elected representatives pay attention to them? For now the arguments diversify his assets and income streams: some following their own interests or those of their seem finely balanced, with people around would be inside Russia – perhaps in the company voters? Their own. Are public services getting Medvedev, such as the economist Igor Yurgens, or job where he first made his fortune. Then there better or worse? Worse. And so on. saying that the time has come for more political might be some property in London, plus a mix of For anyone doing business in Russia, the costs and economic openness, and some people around blue-chip equities and government securities, with of the overloaded infrastructure and predatory Putin saying the opposite. On the outcome of that a few holdings in hedge funds and more exotic officialdom are burdensome and infuriating. Yet, hangs the future of Russia’s new middle class – and investments, perhaps with leveraged bets at so far the business world has preferred to keep its much else besides. brokers in Moscow or London. head down and enjoy the profits rather than •

For the truly unlucky, all those have gone sour is within 3.4%. of error T he margin 2008. in O ctober of R ussia and republics territories in 42 regions, in 140 settlements among 1,600 respondents nationwide survey the proactive s IOM conducted complain about the costs. With the downturn, Edward Lucas is the Central and Eastern Europe

at once. The brokers are demanding margin calls. * T he V there is just a chance that this will change. The Correspondent for The Economist.

10 citiprivatebank.com knightfrank.com 11 Attitudes Attitudes to wealth Attitudes to wealth Attitudes owers ichard P G R A P H Y : ichard P H OTO

research

t’s tempting to assume that wealth insulates Survey Distribution enough to have increased their exposure to equities. quickly. Many investors also acknowledge the HNWIs from the day-to-day worries associated Bank accounts have been the biggest beneficiary long-term nature of property investment: even with economic downturns. Surely, when you are from the flight away from stock market volatility – if values fall your asset is unlikely to disappear % 3 8 3 worth millions or even billions, it doesn’t matter 2 % almost 60% of those represented by our survey have completely. Despite this, a significant number Changing if stock markets fall a bit or your house is worth substantially increased the amount they have on of HNWIs have either increased or reduced their less than you paid for it. However, according to the deposit. The perceived safety of the bond markets is exposure, with a very small percentage increasing

results from The Wealth Report’s Attitudes Survey, reflected by the fact that 67.8% of respondents have it substantially.

2 fortunes which was completed by a global spread of Citi 2 increased their exposure to this kind of investment. This ambivalence is probably a reflection of the

The results from The Wealth Report’s Private Bank’s wealth managers acting for almost % But uncertainty about the ability of even national diversity of the property market and the attitude of HNWI Attitudes Survey provide a unique 2,000 of the world’s richest people, that is not the governments to repay increasing levels of debt could the wealthy towards it. While stock markets around Europe & Russia window on how the credit crunch is case. The wealthy have the same preoccupations and Americas explain why 14.3% of people have decided to reduce the world have all been heading one way only, affecting the behaviour and attitudes of concerns as everybody else. If anything, they keep an China, SE Asia & Australasia their exposure to bonds. property markets have not reacted homogeneously. even closer eye on their investments and react more Middle East, Indian As our PIRI survey on page 26 confirms, the wealthy towards their property and Subcontinent & Africa investment portfolios. Knight Frank’s quickly when markets start to change. property as an investment performance has varied widely. In those areas where Andrew Shirley analyses the numbers When looking at bricks and mortar as an investment values dropped fastest and furthest, canny HNWI Asset Distribution class, the picture becomes less clear. The majority investors are sensing the bottom of the downturn is There has already been a substantial shift in asset of HNWIs appear to be sitting on the fence at the imminent and are slowly reinvesting. distribution among the rich, who appear to have moment, with 57.1% making no change to their Experienced investors realise we are firmly into taken decisive action to mitigate risk and protect property portfolios, although over 90% have seen the bargain-hunting stage of the property cycle, their wealth (see bar chart on page 14). Although their property portfolios decrease in value during especially in the commercial and newbuild sectors. the creation of fortunes is often associated with the credit crunch, with about a third of those hit by a A number of survey respondents said their clients risk and daring decisions, safety first seems to be substantial decrease (see the graphs on page 14). were actively looking to take advantage of distressed the mantra in times of economic turbulence, with The illiquid nature of property probably goes sales to cheaply acquire stable assets with good both transparency and stability highly valued. Based some way towards explaining this lack of action. yields. Many fortunes have been property-based and on this survey, almost 90% of HNWIs have either While an entire portfolio of stocks and shares can a large proportion of the HNWI community has a decreased or substantially decreased their exposure be sold with just a few taps on a keyboard, it is passion for property ownership. According to our to equities, while virtually all have moved away from more difficult – and sometimes almost impossible survey, property accounts on average for 30% of their hedge funds. A small proportion, 7%, feels confident – during an economic downturn to sell property asset portfolios. But even this enthusiasm has

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survey sample is likely to increase its exposure to How concerned are How HNWIs plan to change their exposure to residential property over the next one or two years. HNWIs about a drop specific classes of property in the next 1-2 years in value of their Within this timescale, most commentators are primary or secondary Increase exposure also predicting that prices will start to stabilise, residences? 54.4% 47.4% bringing some certainty to the market. By nature, 5.3% 11.3% many investors fear buying an asset that has further 19.6% % 6 to depreciate in value, but by waiting for the bottom . 1 Reduce exposure Residential property of the market they also risk missing out on the best 3

12.3% Commercial property 6

opportunities. These will already have been snapped .

2 21.1% Agriculture and forestry % up by those prepared to take more risks. 15.1% REITs and other Commercial property is also set to grow in 27.5% property funds popularity, with just under half of HNWIs showing No change their understanding of the market by planning to Very concerned 33.3% increase their investments in this area. This sector Slightly concerned 31.6% Not at all concerned has been particularly hard hit by the recession, and 73.6% 52.9% is arguably well placed to offer growth potential in Intentions for primary the near future for the shrewd investor. Quality stock residence as result of credit crunch in the best locations with good clients has probably as an opportunity rather than a threat, with some 7.0% been devalued too much and this is reflected in some seeing it as an opportunity to buy more cheaply. Not 2 very tempting yields for those with funds to spend 0.0% 6 everybody feels immune, though, with a number . 3 now. But investing in commercial property does % admitting they might have to sell some property.

generally require a more in-depth understanding of Most, though, seem content with their existing

specific industries and markets to minimise risk. % primary residences, with just over a quarter

7 .

6 Perhaps acknowledging this, over 20% of our sample 6 prepared to improve their existing dwelling rather is planning to cut its exposure to the sector. than move (see chart, left). Only 7% are expected to Not all property investments are man-made and take advantage of falling prices by upsizing. It may agricultural land has received much attention over Planning to downsize be that even the rich are nervous about displays of Planning to upsize the past few years. Despite the press headlines, Staying put but improving ostentation and affluence during a severe recession, our survey suggests farmland is still viewed as a Staying put or it could be that even international globetrotters been dented by recent events. Although the attitude specialist long-term investment, with almost value the stability and familiarity of somewhere they How did HNWIs change their exposure Property How have HNWI Intentions for second to various asset classes in 2008? property portfolios Equities of almost 60% has either remained unchanged three-quarters of investors having no intention of homes as result of can expect to call home for the foreseeable future. fared during the credit crunch Substantially increased exposure Bonds credit crunch? or become more positive towards property as an buying or selling land in the short to medium term. If we look at how the credit crunch could affect 1.8% (Q4 2007 to Q4 2008) investment since the credit crunch, that still leaves Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have 14.3 the ownership of secondary residences (see chart, Hedge funds % % 0% .2 5.3% a significant number who now have a more negative suffered horribly during the credit crunch. With the 3 left), we can see both concerns and opportunities Cash deposits 2

7.1% 0.0% % outlook. It may be that these are relatively new or market for new homes stagnant, cash flows have reflected in the survey responses, but maintaining 0% .8 9 1.8% 2 57.9% over-geared investors who have only invested in all but dried up for developers and construction the status quo seems to be the majority position Increased exposure rising property markets and whose confidence has firms, sending their stock into freefall. Although for nearly 63% of HNWIs. Just over 14% of the

17.9% been knocked by the realisation that not even bull nearly 20% of HNWIs feel bullish enough about a sample is predicted to go bargain-hunting during

. 6 5

7% % 3 runs with seemingly boundless energy can carry future recovery to recognise some value in this kind the downturn and add to their tally of secondary

2 60.7% % going on for ever. of investment, 27.5% are less confident and plan residences, while 23.2% may reduce the number of 0% to scale back their exposure. (See page 25 to get the Increasing number houses they have around the world. Some of these 36.8% of secondary residences Substantially increased Future exposure to property classes expert view on REITs.) sales may be forced, but it is more likely to be a No change Staying the same in value Looking to the future (see bar chart, opposite page), Reducing number reflection of a more considered and less flamboyant 57.1% Increased in value Attitudes to where we live of secondary residences 7% No change our survey reveals that property is set to play a major approach to life in these recessionary times. 17.9% Decreased in value role in HNWIs’ investment strategies, but the tough Judging by the results of the survey, HNWIs are What overall conclusions can we draw from the 3.5% Substantially decreased lessons learnt during the credit crunch mean the not losing too much sleep about any drop in the survey responses? First and foremost it appears that 1.8% in value focus will remain firmly on tangible and transparent value of where they actually live (see chart at top HNWIs still regard property as a crucial part of their Decreased exposure assets. Residential property is easily understood of page). Only 5.3% are very concerned about any investment portfolios and have more confidence 23.2% 54.4% by everybody. We all know what we expect a house fall, with 31.6% not worried at all. This is likely in it than other more ephemeral investments. 10.7% or apartment to provide – warmth, security, to be because primary and secondary residences Secondly, the majority of them are by and large 57.9% comfort and prestige. Expectations and emphasis account for a much smaller proportion of HNWIs’ happy with the houses they live in and have no 3.5% will, of course, vary dramatically depending on total wealth than the majority of the population, plans to either retrench or expand their property Substantially decreased exposure circumstance, but the concept is uniformly shared whose homes may well be their only real asset of collections because of the credit crunch. 0% by most societies around the world and the vast value. According to last year’s Attitudes Survey, The results show that when times get tough even 31.6% majority of its population will occupy a dwelling primary residences made up 13% of HNWIs’ wealth the wealthy take the view that you should only invest 3.6% 38.6% in one form or another. This common ground portfolios, with secondary residences taking a in things that you understand. Property: we can see 0% and empathy help explain why over half our further 8%. If anything, the fall in values is perceived it, we can touch it, and we still all want it. • 14 citiprivatebank.com knightfrank.com 15 Philanthropy attitudes

Just giving

A sense of burden, responsibility and enduring legacy motivate many of the world’s great philanthropists. Jon Neale investigates the rise of charitable giving and the impact of the downturn

ver the past decade, wealth Attitudes towards wealth and giving are also has been amassed on an changing. Susan Mackenzie, Director of advisory unprecedented scale, creating service Philanthropy UK, says: “There is definitely a huge number of wealthy a difference in the underlying demographic as we individuals across the world move from inherited wealth to self-creation. In and making many of the rich 1989, three-quarters of The Sunday Times Rich List even richer. This process has had inherited their wealth; now three-quarters are driven the emergence of new self-made. The UK is increasingly like the US with categories of luxury goods and new wealth from entrepreneurs and the City.” services aimed at this wealthy elite. But, compared As our case studies on page 18 show, the attitude to the rise in luxury spending, the growth of giving of donors has changed over time as well. No longer among HNWIs has received little attention. are people happy just to give money to a cause – According to The Chronicle of Philanthropy, a increasingly they want to see it being used to allow record $15.5bn-plus was donated by the 50 most people to change their life chances for the better. generous US philanthropists in 2008 – a 112% Mackenzie believes the underlying reasons for increase on the previous year. This is backed up by giving have not changed. These, she says, are “belief the results of The Wealth Report’s Attitudes Survey in a cause, personal experience, and a desire to help (page 12). Of the wealth managers we questioned, schools and hospitals that have helped family 80% said charitable giving had increased over recent members”. She does notice some other changes, years, with 29% of HNWIs involved in philanthropic however. “It’s often inspiring how humble people activities. Most (64%) opted to channel it through are. They want to feel like partners in the process. specialist funds or foundations. People are becoming far more involved, and far The individuals who set up institutions that give more creative in the ways their foundation gives.” to good causes are a diverse set of people. They are Musa Okwonga, a director at the London-based Patron on the arts: more likely than in the past to have made money Institute for Philanthropy, explains that givers have opened in 1959, the themselves and, thanks to the massive growth of certain characteristics. “People are more likely to be Guggenheim Museum was a gift from the the financial services industries, they are younger philanthropists if they have been through higher Solomon R Guggenheim than ever before. Almost half our survey education or are part of a church. Generally, they Foundation to New York respondents said people were beginning to tend to identify with one of the main political

PHOTOGRAPHY: David M Heald/SRGF, New York David M Heald/SRGF, New PHOTOGRAPHY: consider large-scale giving at an earlier age. parties, read a daily broadsheet and are over 35.”

16 citiprivatebank.com knightfrank.com 17 LOOking UP: the Philanthropy attitudes skylight at The Guggenheim, which was designed by Frank Lloyd Wright

perpetuity. In fact, it considered the 5% payout a attitudes to giving* floor not a ceiling. Until recently, it was able to make this distribution from its earning alone. Prior to the credit crunch, Is philanthropy had there been an increasing always a good idea? Now that the return of its investments has dropped trend among HNWIs towards substantially, it is having to reconsider whether philanthropy? Liam Bailey this is still feasible. In another case, a donor is 20% considering dropping all payments for five years to N The rapid growth of philanthropy in recent years o one of its three core mission areas, or at least until has encouraged a more critical examination of its

the financial storms have passed. impact. While giving is viewed as noble, there is no

However, Schnoll-Begun believes there’s a silver guarantee of its success. The $33.5bn Bill & Melinda

lining as donors are becoming increasingly involved Gates Foundation, for example, came under fire in e

with their selected causes. According to our survey, 2006 for appearing to concentrate on technological

the biggest area in which philanthropists need solutions to global health problems rather than advice is not which causes to give to, but how to ensuring these solutions worked at local level. It has If yes, do you think that the maximize the effect of their donations. “We will credit crunch has reversed since worked hard to tackle this problem and the see the emergence of an alternative form of that trend? wider accusation of unaccountability. philanthropy, where donors are more involved There are undoubtedly problems within the

and engaged in the programme. They will offer 34 sector, and the main charge is the ineffectual use of .1 leadership and commitment. We are already % funds, including the duplication of effort and

CASE STUDIES witnessing a new wave of donors who will adopt o under-performance of the not-for-profit sector.

At the most elite level, though, philanthropy a more hands-on approach. They are demanding s Research from 2007 found that in the US there were e Y

Peter Munk Gerald Ronson

becomes very different – and the phenomenon more reporting and accountability than ever.” 1.6m organisations employing nearly 9% of all

Businessman Chief Executive, .

of the ‘family office’ emerges. “These are quite Schnoll-Begun remains convinced that donors workers. Many worked in the same fields, with little

“People are more

and Developer Heron International

likely to be opaque, perhaps a bit like hedge funds in the sense are far more aware of issues today than in the past cooperation or sharing of resources. Peter Munk is an example Gerald Ronson is one of that very few people, until recently, knew they as a result of volunteering, social networking and An important criticism is that the sheer size of the of how personal experiences the UK’s most successful philanthropists How do you think the age at existed or understood what they did,” explains the internet. There is also a lot more information mega foundations means they divert resources – are often the most important entrepreneurs and property if they have which HNWIs start to think philanthropic drivers. Munk developers. In 1956, he Okwonga. “They manage the investments and on the work that non-profit organisations are doing. about philanthropic activities labour, research spending and materials – towards arrived penniless in Canada in founded Heron Group, now been through trusts – and philanthropic activities – of a single There is a danger, she says, that the effects of the has changed over the last their own areas of particular interest and take away five years? the 1940s, after his family fled called Heron International. higher wealthy family, or sometimes a number of families. recession could lead donors to concentrate their effort from equally needy but less glamorous causes. Nazi-occupied Hungary. He Its current projects include 6.5% education or In the US, in particular, there is a whole industry efforts in certain areas. An increasingly fragile However, this argument would seem to imply that subsequently became one of the 220m Heron Tower in

Canada’s richest men, building Bishopsgate in the City are part of devoted to advising family offices on giving.” Western economy could lead to philanthropists governments and businesses have a monopoly on

4 Barrick Gold into the world’s and the Heron, a As the results of our Attitudes Survey show, nearly giving to domestic causes rather than global or 7 intelligent resource allocation – in the light of the .

a church” 8

largest gold mining operation. 284-apartment residential %

66% of wealth advisers believe the economic developing world concerns. % sub-prime fallout and welfare spending failures 7

Munk’s charitable tower near the Barbican. .

downturn has reversed the trend towards Nevertheless, Barack Obama's presidency has 4 across the developed world, this seems rather unfair.

foundation is worth more Ronson’s public image

philanthropy among HNWIs. Large amounts of brought a new wave of optimism to America and There is little doubt that the wealthy may find it

than $150m and he says he is may be that of a hard-nosed,

proudest of the contribution no-nonsense businessman, wealth have simply vanished over the past year and this may inspire a greater degree of philanthropy – hard to dispose of their wealth effectively, but this he has made to Toronto, the but he donates 20% of his time many HNWIs are not quite as rich as they thought although this may take the form of volunteerism, difficulty ought not to dissuade them from the city that took in his destitute to good causes and raises over they were a year or two ago. rather than financial resources, at least in the short Starting younger attempt. The significant potential offered by family. The Peter Munk Cardiac £5m a year for charities. Stayed the same term. Moreover, the new administration's attitude so-called ‘smart philanthropy’ ought to keep them Centre is now the best of its “The Gerald Ronson Melanie Schnoll-Begun, Head of Citi Family Starting older kind in Canada, treating Foundation gives a Office Philanthropic Services, is convinced that the to areas, such as stem cell research and focused on the potential outcomes. around 17,000 patients a year seven-figure sum to help the amount given in dollars will decline this year – microfinance – including US-based microfinance Paul Brest and Hal Harvey’s book, Money Well and, through an impressive underprivileged in education particularly as the wealth of so many prominent US – could spur new interest in these, hitherto, Spent: A Strategic Guide to Smart Philanthropy, research programme, and welfare, although I developing innovative probably raise four or five donors has been eroded by the equity markets, overlooked subjects. suggests that rather than conflicting with treatments. His interest here times that for the other credit crisis and Madoff scandal. “Many prolific Looking further forward, Schnoll-Begun believes government programmes, philanthropy is has a personal element too – charities I help with,” says donors are going into wait-and-see mode,” she says. that philanthropy will continue to evolve and complementary. This should be the experimental the hospital helped his mother Ronson, whose faith plays a “While they may be cutting back on their giving, change. “There will be a new emphasis on the sector, where more risky and longer-term solutions survive a cardiac arrest. big role in his philanthropic Munk likes to combine activities. “I have been involved they still want to keep their philanthropy vital and legacy of grandparents in wealthy families – the can be trialled before the public or business sectors business with philanthropy. in many causes, from the fulfilling. We’re encouraging donors to give fewer matriarchs and patriarchs. There is a need to implement them on a wider scale. Brest goes further He is currently developing Prince’s Trust and the Natural but larger gifts. Doing so maximizes the educate young adults in the family’s history, how by welcoming philanthropic failure. He argues that Porto Montenegro, a 650-berth History Museum, to cancer effectiveness of charitable dollars. Also, we’re the wealth was accumulated and the family’s through failure lessons can be learnt and future marina that will be the largest research. I have been involved home for super yachts in the all my life and shall be even at urging them to use grant agreements. These outline background before it had money.” improvements can evolve, and without the Mediterranean. But behind the 70, predominantly in charities how grant funds will be used, and what outcomes While the next few years will present problems to willingness to fail, the big advances that donors glitz, he is aiming to leave a helping the underprivileged. are expected. Finally, we’re finding that some the philanthropy industry, they will also provide seek will not be achievable. It is hard to make legacy of investment through I believe if the good Lord foundations are renegotiating the terms of pledges new opportunities. money work effectively, but this challenge educational and training blesses you with the ability to made, in terms of the amount and the term.” • motivates the likes of Bill Gates and the countless programmes that will help make money, then you have the former Yugoslav republic the responsibility to put it back In one case, she adds, a foundation committed to Jon Neale is Head of Development Research other philanthropists. Their willingness to waste as prosper in the future. into the community.” giving out more than 5% of its corpus each year in 2009 Attitudes Survey *Source: at Knight Frank. well as to give money ought to be welcomed.• 18 citiprivatebank.com knightfrank.com 19 attitudes The meaning of wealth The meaning of wealth attitudes

think tank B onfire of the vanities Recessions ask us to look past the Recessions ask us to look past the value of our property and investment value of our property and investment portfolios and consider some of the portfolios and consider some of the biggest questions of all, says influential biggest questions of all, says influential philosopher Alain de Botton philosopher Alain de Botton portrait by harry borden

he current economic crisis is forcing all of us to rethink nothing less than the meaning of life. In particular, it is prompting us to re-examine a key idea in our society: the connection between making money and being happy. Criticisms of consumer society have focused not only on the shortcomings and inadequacies of products but also, more fairly perhaps, on the distorted picture of our needs that ensues from the way these products are presented to us. They can appear essential, blessed with extraordinary powers to bestow happiness on us, because we understand neither their actual identities nor our own functioning. A car advertisement will, for example, be careful to ignore aspects of our psychology and of the overall process of ownership that could spoil, or at least mitigate, our joy at coming to possess a featured vehicle. It will fail to mention our tendency to cease appreciating anything after owning it a short while. The quickest way to stop noticing something may be to buy it – just as the quickest way to stop appreciating a person may be to marry them. We are tempted to believe that certain achievements and possessions will guarantee us an enduring satisfaction. We are led to imagine ourselves scaling the steep sides of the cliff face of happiness to reach a wide, high plateau on which to continue our lives; we are not reminded that soon after reaching the summit we will be called down again into fresh lowlands of anxiety and desire. thinking through: Life seems a process of replacing one anxiety with another the quickest way to stop and one desire for another – which is not to say that we appreciating something is should never strive to overcome any anxieties or fulfil any to buy it, says de Botton desires, but that we should perhaps build into our strivings

20 citiprivatebank.com knightfrank.com 21 attitudes The meaning of wealth

It means an abundance of anything, from butterflies to books to smiles. Ruskin wished to be wealthy in kindness, curiosity, sensitivity, humility, godliness and intelligence – a set of virtues he referred to simply as ‘life’. In Unto This Last, first published in 1860, Ruskin entreated us to set aside our ordinary monetary conceptions of wealth and take up a life-based view, according to which the wealthiest people would no longer be merchants and landowners but those who most keenly felt wonder beneath the stars at an awareness of the way our goals promise us levels night or were best able to interpret and alleviate the of rest and resolution that they cannot, by definition, sufferings of others. “There is no wealth but life,” he deliver. The car will quickly be absorbed and hardly “If we cannot intoned. “Life, including all its powers of love, of joy be noticed – until the night a burglar does us the stop envying, and of admiration.” paradoxical service of breaking a window to steal the it is especially Ruskin was uttering the plain, childlike truths radio and reminds us, in the midst of the shattered poignant that of the prophets – and when people did not guffaw, glass, how much there was to be grateful for. they listened. In a lecture on the centenary of The advertisement stays quiet, too, about the we should Ruskin’s birth, George Bernard Shaw proposed weak capacity of all material goods to alter our levels spend so much that the invective of Lenin and the indictments of of happiness, as compared with the overwhelming of our lives Marx were, when compared with Ruskin’s works, power of emotional events. The most elegant and envying the like the platitudes of a rural dean. Ruskin’s political accomplished of vehicles cannot bring us a fraction wrong things” message to the cultured people of his day – the class of the satisfaction of a relationship – just as it cannot to which he himself belonged – began and ended in be of any comfort whatever following a domestic this simple judgement: “You are a parcel of thieves.” argument or abandonment. At such moments, we Ruskin wasn’t alone in the opinion. Others may even resent a car’s impassive efficiency and the hammered home identical criticisms of the methodical calculations of its onboard computer. way money appeared to have become the chief We are equally prone to misunderstand the determinant of respect, something to wield as a sign attractions of certain careers, because so much of of demonstrable goodness, and not merely one what they entail has been edited out, leaving only component – and perhaps not the most important – highlights it would be impossible not to admire. If of a fulfilled life. “Never did people believe anything we cannot stop envying, it is especially poignant that more firmly than nine Englishmen out of 10 at the we should spend so much of our lives envying the present day believe that our greatness and welfare wrong things. are proved by our being so very rich,” lamented poet The essence of the charge made against modern Matthew Arnold in Culture and Anarchy (1869). materialism is that it is guilty of a gigantic distortion Thomas Carlyle agreed, only more angrily. In of priorities, of elevating to the highest level of Midas (1843), he asked, “This successful industry of achievement a process of accumulation which England, with its plethoric wealth… which of us has should be only one of the many things determining it enriched?… We have sumptuous garnitures for our the direction of our lives under a more truthful, life, but have forgotten to live in the middle of them. more broadly defined conception of ourselves. Many men eat finer cookery, drink dearer liquors, but Incensed by the distortion of priorities, in the heart of them, what increase of blessedness is the 19th-century art critic John Ruskin excoriated there? Are they better, beautifuller, stronger, braver? Victorian Britons for being the most Are they even what they call ‘happier’? We have wealth-obsessed people in the history of the world. profoundly forgotten everywhere that cash payment They were, he wrote, never far from a concern with is not the sole relation of human beings.” who had what and from where. Carlyle was not blind to the benefits of modern But Ruskin made a confession. Contrary to enterprise. But he could not accept a way of life expectations, he too was frantic to become wealthy. in which what he termed “Mammon worship” The thought of wealth preyed on his mind from subsumed the drive towards “blessedness” and breakfast till dinner. Yet he was only sarcastically “satisfaction” on “God’s Earth”. toying with an ambiguity in the word ‘wealth’ to Whatever our politics, recent events are making bring home more forcefully how far he felt his such voices ever harder to ignore. countrymen had strayed from virtue. For the •

dictionary tells us that wealth means not only, or Alain de Botton is author of The Architecture of S tarr OG R APH : V incent T

historically even primarily, large amounts of money. Happiness (Pantheon). www.alaindebotton.com PHO

22 citiprivatebank.com Global opportunities Property NEW HORIZONS

The recession has left few sectors undented, but even in turbulent times there are opportunities to be seized Bricks and mortar still remain an attractive long-term investment, offering a sense of security that stock markets cannot provide in today’s economic environment. Even cash deposits look out of favour, as investors question the safety of their money and banks slash interest rates. Here, experts at Knight Frank and Citi Private Bank reveal the worldwide locations and sectors that should make sound investments for the future.

Up-and-coming prime London locations Liam Bailey, Head of Residential Research, Knight Frank “The weakness of sterling, combined with significant price falls, means London is very attractive to international buyers. Up-and-coming areas with additional growth potential include Fitzrovia, to the east of Marylebone. It may lack the historic and architectural integrity of areas further west but it makes up for this with a more varied selection of properties. “Neighbouring Bloomsbury is already famous for its leafy appearance and elegant architecture, as well as the British Museum. Bedford Square is often cited as the best preserved of all London’s Georgian squares. The vast regeneration programme planned for King’s Cross is likely to make this area far more attractive to prime buyers. Already, the opening of the high-speed Eurostar link at St Pancras has vastly improved the image of the area.” PHOTOGRAPH: Narratives / Ignacio Izquierdo, richardpowers.co.uk, 4CornersImages.com richardpowers.co.uk, / Ignacio Izquierdo, Narratives PHOTOGRAPH:

knightfrank.com 23 Property Global opportunities Global opportunities Property

US vacation and Distressed US and Luxur y penthouse resort areas UK property, plus apartments Michael McPartland, Head of Barbados emerging markets Patrick Dring, Head of Residential Real Estate Lending, Georgina Richards, Roger Orf, Head of International International Residential, Citi Private Bank Caribbean Desk, Knight Frank Investment, Citi Property Investors Knight Frank “Over the next one to three years, I believe “The term ‘flight to quality’ is one being “The US and the UK have an abundance of “Penthouse apartments in the best there will be opportunities in vacation and used above all others at present, and I do distressed real estate – in many cases buildings in key city centres and resorts resort areas for real estate and investment not think it is more applicable than in the distressed not because of the locations or will retain their popularity. The wealthy vehicles like REITs [real estate investment Caribbean. We have seen increasing tenants, but due to their capital structures. are short of time and forever trying to trusts]. As values rise, these areas generally interest in up-and-coming islands, but I believe there will be opportunities to buy simplify their lives, and fully managed trail primary home regions, but they are over the last few months this has retracted debt on these properties at a deep discount lock-up-and-leave properties are ideal. also usually the first area to give back value to focus yet again on Barbados. Buyers to par in future years. There may not be “If I were an investor, I’d start looking when prices decline. appreciate its consistent track record, even growth for a number of years to come, but now and select at least two locations in “The euphoria of the last few years led in uncertain markets, thanks to a stable the high volume of distressed property will different parts of the world and different to a lot of over-building within the sector. government, good infrastructure, a outweigh available capital, which should currencies. If I were a lifestyle purchaser The inventory exists, and much of it was developed economy and accessibility. result in some attractive returns. then clearly the location will be driven by created during a real estate bull cycle. This “Virgin Atlantic is expanding its routes “Asian property continues to decline in factors other than pure investment inventory will need to be reabsorbed, and from Manchester to Barbados, property value, but the underlying economies returns. Different locations are in different the basic fundamentals remain that made transfer tax has been reduced to 2.5% and remain strong. Real estate historically has stages of the property cycle right now, but these areas attractive to begin with. We are foreign exchange controls have been lifted. appreciated in tandem with a country’s Paris has displayed considerable resilience also beginning to see many experienced I would invest in either a beachfront GDP. China and India are likely to in recent years and is still benefiting from real estate funds acquiring properties. property or well-maintained themed economically outperform most countries the Eurostar link to London. Monaco has These funds are likely to begin to show development offering an array of facilities and this presents an opportunity to buy seen some of the froth come off prices and profits over the next five years, assuming and security. Three-bedroom townhouses assets cheaply as well as participate in London now looks good value. Buying that the desire for inventory and capital in a waterfront development in St James these countries’ strong ongoing property in these markets, which perform constraints loosen.” are available for $1.7m.” underlying economic fundamentals.” consistently well, will always make sense.”

Prime marina Moscow and regional Northern Tuscany, Brazil developments European REITs Nicholas Barnes, Russian centres James Price, Head of Lazio and Bordeaux Harry Stokes, Real Estate Head of International Elena Norton, Russian and International Residential Paul Humphreys, European Analyst, Citi Investment Residential Research, CIS Desk, Knight Frank Development, Knight Frank Desk, Knight Frank Research EMEA Knight Frank “Moscow is the place where everyone “Demand remains for high-quality “An improvement in infrastructure means “The opacity of direct property values is “Although Brazil is a popular tourist from Russia and the CIS would like a property linked to desirable facilities, that northern Tuscany in Italy is reflected in the confusion and sharp destination, it remains in the emerging base. There is a lack of development such as marina-based residential projects. increasingly accessible and the area to the write-downs of net asset value market category for second-home buyers. opportunities in the inner city centre, and Porto Montenegro (visualised below), a north of Lucca, the Garfagnana Valley, is expectations in the quoted sector. For There are few developments of quality, many developers have been affected by the regenerated port on the Bay of Kotor, undoubtedly well worth considering as an institutional investors, whose though several are planned. Nonetheless, crisis. I believe that in 12-18 months’ time offers attractive surroundings and 650 alternative to the more traditional areas in performance is benchmarked quarterly, Brazil has considerable untapped potential the shortage of quality stock will be really berths, including 130 for boats over 30m.” the south. The area to the north of Lazio property stocks are a risky selection at the and offers many attractive features. felt. Among regional cities, Kaliningrad also has potential, as a new international moment. However, for private investors “The country boasts more ecological and Astrakhan will be interesting for airport at Viterbo is scheduled for who take a longer-term view, some of the diversity than any other, its economy has residential property investment due to completion next year. shares look interesting. performed well in recent years and it is their strategic locations as major sea ports “In France, Bordeaux is undergoing “Real estate is a long-term investment, expecting a considerable boost following on the Baltic and Black seas. something of a renaissance, and we are and the introduction of REITs was the discovery of what is believed to be the “I would definitely start looking for expecting to see increased Chinese intended to allow private investors the world’s largest offshore oil field. The opportunities now, taking advantage of interest in the area’s vineyards following opportunity to access income streams of nation’s exotic, slightly frontier character the global economic turmoil. The Moscow Hong Kong’s abolition of import tax on the direct market via liquid, quoted is appealing to those seeking something market will be the first to recover, with wine. In all of these areas, an expenditure companies. The dividend yield of the different within the comfort of a fully most growth towards the end of 2010. of between €500,000 and €2m will give European real estate sector is currently serviced resort community. Average Here, $5m will buy an apartment that will buyers some excellent options to choose at a 50% premium to the wider market values are low – resorts along the hold its value and appreciate over the short from. The growth period over which and should remain one of the more northeast coast average $1,400 per square and medium term. The level of regional property should be purchased and held is resilient, given index-linked or metre for villas and $1,900 per square investment will be about $1-2m.” at least five years.” upwards-only rental growth.” metre for apartments.”

24 citiprivatebank.com knightfrank.com 25 Property Prime residential Prime residential Property

research or most of the world’s prime residential downturn, but nowhere will be immune from a markets, 2008 was a year to forget. Prices fell significant fall in property values. in almost half of all global hot spots and sales Tax-efficient locations, which proved to be “Different volumes all but dried up in many markets. From market leaders during the boom years, have begun parts of the back to Europe, to the Middle East, to the Americas and to come under pressure. Zero growth was recorded world are at Asia, few places had much to celebrate. The impact during the year for both the Cayman Islands and different stages of the credit crunch was felt first in the prime Bermuda, whereas in Monaco a respectable rate of reality newbuild and investment-led markets. By the growth in the first half of 2008 was reversed by a of the global The results of the 2008 Knight Frank summer of 2008, off-plan sales in Europe, North sharp downturn in Q3 – before values stabilised in downturn, but Prime International Residential Index show Africa, the Caribbean and Middle Eastern resorts the final quarter – leaving prices 2.1% up on the year. nowhere will be widespread price falls in the world’s most struggled to maintain traction and development Following rapid price adjustments, in addition to immune from desirable property markets. Liam Bailey, plans were either scaled back or put on hold. currency fluctuations, the league table for the a significant Head of Residential Research at Knight It was perhaps obvious in retrospect that world’s most expensive residential markets has fall in property Frank, reveals the figures investment and some over-inflated second-home changed substantially since the 2008 Wealth Report markets would be hit hardest. In areas where local (see chart below). Despite recent price falls, Monaco values” demand for prime property is limited or even stands out at the head of the field – with an average non-existent – especially those with an abundance value of €50,000 per square metre for the best of stock – investors have created an artificial market. properties. London, where values have been hit hard Without them there is nothing to support prices. by the slide in the value of sterling, slips down the As returns from equity and commodity markets ranking to number two. Manhattan is in third place, plunged, even HNWIs and UHNWIs cut their while Asian cities (Hong Kong, Tokyo and discretionary expenditure. But the worsening global Singapore) compete with European centres and local market conditions meant that through the (Moscow, Rome and Paris) for the remaining year even the prospects for the world’s most positions in the table, with Sydney bringing up the expensive first-home markets – including London, rear. The impressive showing from Moscow (fourth) New York, Hong Kong, Sydney and Singapore – is influenced by the relatively small size of the city’s weakened sharply. prime market area – and the rapid growth of HNWI The results from our Prime International purchasers over recent years – although recent Residential Index reflect these trends (see page 28). evidence is that price growth has slowed and turned Of the 55 locations covered by our index, 23 saw negative in the final quarter. prices fall over the course of 2008, six saw no change and 26 saw growth. But data for the final quarter of and the future? the year is more telling, revealing how the downturn Depending on where you were in the world, 2008 saw ichard Powers OG RA P H : R ichard

T has gathered pace. Comparing Q4 against Q3 2008, prime market conditions range from ‘challenging’, 35 locations saw prices fall as opposed to only 14 to ‘difficult’, to ‘awful’. Looking ahead to the rest of showing growth. The biggest losers were the prime 2009 and beyond, it is very easy to become districts of the big cities: Hong Kong (-25%) and despondent about the prospects for prices and sales London (-17%) led the decline, but several other volumes throughout the luxury market. Rather than cities saw double-digit price falls, including being immune from the wider market downturn, as Singapore (-15%) and Sydney (-12%). many felt would be the case 12 months ago, the The most resilient prime markets last year tended luxury housing sector is potentially more vulnerable to be found in the emerging economies – notably Moscow (+13%), Jakarta (+18%) and Bangkok (+23%). the global top 10 Even Dubai, which has been tipped for a crash for Prime global city markets almost as long as it has being developing, managed Comparative residential pricing, Q4 2008* to record growth of 11% in 2008, although by Q4 prices were slipping substantially and our data 1 monaco €50,000 $6,550 revealed a 19% decline between Q3 and Q4. 2 london €28,000 $3,670 Price rises in prime Asian locations have been 3 manhattan €16,500 $2,160

driven by a lag between wealth creation and slow 4 Moscow €16,200 $2,120

growth in new high-specification housing. But 5 Paris €16,000 $2,100

evidence is mounting that in these locations, where 6 Tokyo €15,850 $2,080 annual double-digit price growth has become the 7 hong kong €15,750 $2,060 expectation, performance has weakened noticeably K$10.940; euro = S$2.032. P H O = H K$10.940; euro = $1.409; euro 2008: euro on 31 D ecember taken rates E xchange R esidential esearch. rank 8 ROME €13,500 $1,770 in recent months and there is talk of steep price falls 9 Singapore €11,850 $1,550 this year as wealth creation falters. Different parts of € per sq m 1,000

10 sydney €11,000 $1,440 1,000 *Source: Knight F *Source: the world are at different stages of the global $ per sq ft

26 27 citiprivatebank.com $ knightfrank.com Property Prime residential

to economic shocks than the mainstream market, winners And losers although the most desirable and established prime Prime global markets Q on Q Y on Y locations will retain their liquidity and long-term Residential price change, year to Q4 2008 and Q3 to Q4 2008* values better than the artificially inflated newcomers Location: Country to the prime arena discussed earlier.

1 Bangkok: Thailand 3.4% 22.5% The element that gave the sector its impetus for 2 Jakarta: Indonesia 3% 17.7% growth over the last decade was the expansion of 3 Bali: Indonesia 3.7% 16.7% global trade and economic linkages. This factor 4 Kuala Lumpur: Malaysia 2.3% 15.8% contributed to the rapid growth of a footloose and 5 Istanbul: Turkey 2.1% 14.3% wealthy global elite, giving the global luxury market 6 Moscow: Russia -5.6% 13.1% a substantial raison d’être. This trend saw an 7 Dubai: UAE -19.1% 10.8% explosion in demand for multiple residences by 8 Geneva: Switzerland 1.1% 8.5% those who ran their business in, say, Russia, raised 9 Verbier: Switzerland 0.5% 7.6% finance in New York, and spent August in 10 Cancun: Mexico 1.1% 7.3% St-Jean-Cap-Ferrat and February in Courchevel. 11 Vancouver: Canada 0% 5.6% The demand for property to facilitate this lifestyle 12 Marrakech: Morocco 0.9% 5.5% grew substantially. As late as the summer of 2008, 13 Shanghai: China -3.9% 5.2% Knight Frank sold more European properties priced 14 Gstaad: Switzerland 0% 4.4% at or above €10m in three months than in the whole 15 Cape Town: South Africa 0.5% 4.3% 16 Limassol: Cyprus -0.5% 3.9% of 2006. The credit crunch and resulting economic 17 Paris: France 0% 3.8% downturn slowed this process. 18 Mauritius 0.6% 3.7% The question to answer is whether the downturn 19 Seychelles 0.5% 3.6% is leading to a simple repricing of assets that had 20 Berlin: Germany 0% 3.1% become overvalued through the late boom period, or 21 Johannesburg: South Africa -1% 2.9% whether something more fundamental has occurred 22 Monaco: Monaco -10.7% 2.1% in the global economy that will mean prime market 23 Montenegro -0.5% 2.1% pricing will be further suppressed and take a long 24 Rome: Italy 0.4% 1.4% time to recover. The evidence from one market at the 25 Milan: Italy 0.2% 1.2% epicentre of the downturn is that the former is more 26 Bermuda: Carribean -0.3% 0.1% likely. London’s top-end market saw the downturn 27 Nice: France -5% 0% accelerate in late 2008 as the market accepted that 28 Sao Paulo: Brazil 0% 0% 10% or 15% price reductions were insufficient to get 29 Cayman Islands: Carribean 0% 0% sales underway. By early 2009, the 30% discounts 30 St Tropez: France -5% 0% being offered triggered a rally in market activity and 31 Cannes: France -3% 0% 32 St-Jean-Cap-Ferrat: France -5% 0% allied to a 20% decline in sterling against the major 33 Frankfurt: Germany -0.7% -0.7% world currencies, offered the potential of savings up 34 Lake Como: Italy -1.4% -0.9% to 50% on peak prices for international buyers. 35 Central Algarve: Portugal -2% -1% The response has been dramatic: wealthy 36 Forte dei Marmi: Italy -3% -2% international buyers who considered the market too 37 San Francisco: United States -3.1% -0.7% hot a year earlier have come back strongly and the 38 Florence: Italy -3.6% -2.5% early evidence is that this demand has acted to place 39 Madrid: Spain -3.8% -2.6% a floor underneath prices. An additional factor 40 New York (Manhattan): United States -4.1% -3.2% supporting prices is that supply is constrained when 41 Tokyo: Japan -5.4% -4.4% low prices are offered – the very wealthy do not need 42 Courchevel: France -7.5% -5% to sell their prized assets in a weak market. 43 Chianti: Italy -8.2% -5% The desire to own good property in the best 44 Melbourne: Australia -8.5% -1.9% markets is an enormous driver for the prime 45 Mallorca: Spain -10% -5% residential sector. The lesson to draw from the last 46 Venice: Italy -10.5% -6.5% 47 Sydney: Australia -11.9% -6.4% two years is that no market, no matter how 48 Mumbai: India -12.5% -6.2% luxurious, can escape a bubble-and-bust scenario. 49 Barbados -14.3% -5.3% However, when the market believes prices have 50 Dordogne: France -14.5% -5% returned to offer good value, activity will rise and the 51 Singapore -14.6% -2.2% perennial factors that make a true prime market 52 Marbella: Spain -15% -5.7% desirable will endure. rank R esidential esearch rank 53 London: United Kingdom -16.9% -9.4% • 54 Home Counties: United Kingdom -19.4% -10.2% Liam Bailey is Head of Residential Research 55 Hong Kong: China -26.6% -24.5% at Knight Frank. Knight F *Source:

28 citiprivatebank.com World Cities Survey Property

City living: A good quality of life, influential inhabitants and strong economic activity make Hong Kong a world city

s there such a thing as a world city? Are considered much more than each city’s there locations where the confluence share of world financial flows, important of financial, creative and intellectual though these are. We have assessed activity is so great that the city has political influence, contribution to t h E an impact way beyond its national and intellectual activity and liveability. regional borders? If the answer is yes, how Our assessment criteria are grouped should we recognise a world city when we under four main themes. Firstly, we w o r l d ’ s see it? Several organisations have attempted considered economic activity – including to provide an answer, and the field of global economic output, income per head, BE ST surveys is crowded. financial and capital market activity We asked ourselves whether there and market share, and the number of was space for yet another. A review of the international business headquarters. c i t i E S competition showed that to date most have The broader non-economic influence A growing number of cities fallen into the trap of considering economic exerted by each city has been captured are staking their claim as the activity only, and do not place sufficient by our second measure, which we loosely emphasis on the elements that make up the label ‘political power’. In this category key location for the wealthy whole of a city’s attraction. we calculated the importance of each and influential. In this, the first In our survey (see page 31 for the results), city to global political and intellectual edition of Knight Frank’s we attempted to create the most rounded thought and opinion – identifying World Cities Survey, Liam Bailey picture of the world’s leading cities in the reality of where power is held and provides the definitive guide order to provide an accurate measure of the influence is exercised. Our ranking to the ones that really matter locations that matter to wealthy individuals included the number of headquarters for choosing first or second homes. We have national political organisations

knightfrank.com 29 Property World Cities Survey World Cities Survey Property

and international non-governmental attitudes Knight frank organisations, together with the number wer survey ctivity world cities survey, 2009 of embassies and think tanks in each city. Thirdly, we looked at intellectual Contributors were wledge and Influence Each city has been assessed against EconomiPolict AicaKnol PoQuality of Life influence. This was measured for each asked to rank key four criteria and awarded a ranking city in terms of its own knowledge global financial from one to 40 for each category. centres – both 1 London 2 4 3 10 The lower the cumulative score, base, including the education level of 2 new york 2 2 8 13 now and how they the higher the rank. inhabitants and newly arrived migrants, 3 paris 4 5 5 2 16 imagined the order 4 tokyo 3 6 4 7 20 together with the number of world-leading 5 los angeles 11 16 6 9 42 would be in 10 Economic activity international educational facilities. In years’ time. 6 brussels 16 3 15 14 48 addition we looked at how well each city is 7 singapore 6 15 7 22 50 Political power 8 toronto 22 22 9 54 Knowledge and influence able to transmit this knowledge. For this Ranking now 9 washington 30 10 13 54 10 chicago 12 19 8 15 54 we considered the number of national Rank City Quality of life and international media organisations 11 seoul 7 18 16 18 59 1 New York 12 beijing 9 7 24 19 59 Top five in each category and news bureaus, and the international 2 London 13 berlin 24 13 18 5 60 Bottom five in each category market share of locally based media. 3 Tokyo 14 honG kong 5 32 3 23 63 15 frankfurt 10 26 26 4 66 Finally, we assessed the quality of life 4 Hong Kong 16 san francisco 23 24 14 12 73 5 offered by each city. The range of issues Beijing 17 bangkok 15 12 17 30 74 considered was extensive and included 6 Frankfurt 18 sydney 14 34 12 16 76 7 Shanghai 19 mexico city 29 10 25 17 81 measures of personal and political 20 moscow 20 31 22 11 84 8 Singapore freedom, censorship, personal security, 21 shanghai 8 17 31 29 85 9 Paris crime, political stability, health facilities, 22 zurich 26 40 11 10 87 10 Moscow 23 istanbul 27 8 21 32 88 public services and transport, culture 11 Mumbai 24 sao paulo 13 21 28 27 89 and leisure, climate and the quality of the 25 munich 25 28 32 6 91 natural and man-made environment. Ranking in 10 years 26 taipei 17 14 29 34 94 27 buenos aires 33 11 27 24 95 1 New York 28 dubai 18 35 13 33 99 The results 2 London 29 miami 28 20 23 31 102 3 Beijing 30 cairo 39 9 20 35 103 The 40 cities in our index are dominated 31 milan 21 29 35 20 105 4 Shanghai by the established European, American 32 boston 31 38 19 21 109 5 Hong Kong and Asian urban centres. In fact, the top 33 bogota 37 23 34 28 122 6 Singapore 34 kuala lumpur 19 30 37 39 125 10 displays a remarkable similarity to the 7 Mumbai 35 tel aviv 40 25 36 25 126 36 new delhi 38 27 30 36 131 most expensive residential cities revealed 8 Tokyo rank 37 rio de janeiro 35 37 40 26 138 on page 26 in our Prime International 9 Moscow 38 jakarta 34 33 33 38 138 Residential Index. While the top-tier 10 Frankfurt 39 mumbai 32 39 38 37 146

cities are likely to remain relatively 11 Paris Knight F Source: 40 johannesburg 36 36 39 40 151 unchanged in the short term, we expect to see considerable change in the middle high scores for knowledge and influence. Middle East and Asia are working hard to locations like London, New York and concentrate on the wrong things. Excellent acceptance of new ideas and invention, and lower end of our ranking, not least While Hong Kong (14) scores in the top compete directly on. Despite significant Tokyo losing their hold on world city transport infrastructure is a good thing, their open economies and free press and following the outcome of the current five for economic activity and knowledge investment, Dubai (28) struggles to score leadership. However, evidence from our and to some extent so too are shiny new intellectual scenes – all of which bode economic crisis, which is undoubtedly and influence, its poor results in political well on this measure, however we expect Attitudes Survey (on the opposite page, business districts, stock exchanges and well for the future. It will be fascinating opening opportunities for other cities to power – where Beijing (12) takes precedence the city to climb further in the future. and examined in detail on page 12) entertainment quarters, but the real to see locations like Shanghai and Dubai take market share in financial services. – and quality of life drag down its score. As The crux of the matter for many cities in reinforces a less dramatic view. We asked underpinning of the current top-tier world challenge this pre-eminence in the future. The top of the table doesn’t really a result, Singapore (seven) comes out ahead emerging economies is that while they have our contributors to rank the key global cities is much more complex. Our survey results suggest that in order contain many surprises. The traditional as the second Asian centre in our survey. benefited from government investment financial centres – both now and how they One of the significant conclusions to to make it as a world city, you need more powerhouses lead the rankings, with One of the key insights provided by the in infrastructure and facilities, issues imagined the order would be 10 years draw from our survey is that economic than just success in a single economic London (number one), New York (two) and European centres in the middle of the surrounding personal freedoms and safety, hence. The results suggest that both New growth on its own is not enough. The field. It seems that the world only regards Tokyo (four) heading their respective world table – Berlin (13), Frankfurt (15), Zurich as well as broader political tension, remain York and London will remain in first and importance of political and thought your city as indispensable if in addition regions. Notwithstanding the market chaos (22) and Munich (25) – is that along with stumbling blocks to their development as second positions over the 10-year period. leadership in addition to a vibrant public to delivering on wealth creation, you of the past 12 months, economic power Toronto (eight), these are cities that have world cities. Despite this, we expect that One of the key reasons for selecting a sphere mean even medium-sized cities provide an attractive built and natural ensures a top score in all three cases. been able to develop successful world-class the ranking for locations like Dubai, Sao wide range of criteria in our World Cities such as Brussels, Toronto and Munich can environment, your universities are open New York scores well for political power economies, and at the same time provide an Paulo (24), Moscow (20), Mumbai (39) Survey was the recognition that economic wield a greater influence in the world than to the best brains from around the world, and is second only to Washington (nine) on excellent quality of life with a high-quality and Shanghai (21) will improve over the drivers can only be part of the assessment. the emerging economy behemoths. think tanks and political activists feel free that measure. As the EU’s official capital, public realm. With the added advantage next few years, as economic growth and All three top cities – London, New York The two cities that stand apart from all to discuss and disseminate ideas, the press while weak on economic activity, Brussels of excellent cultural facilities, these are development continue. and Tokyo – share similarities in that others are London and New York. Both have can publish without fear or favour, public (six) scores very highly on political power attractive places to live and work, and offer they are each vast and messy. Planned been hit hard by the credit crunch, but their spaces are both well maintained and safe, but cannot offer sufficient presence on the models for other cities to emulate. How to build a world city in part, they are generally the result of networks remain largely intact and they and finally – and most importantly in remaining themes to eclipse Paris (three), The quality of life elements displayed The zeitgeist is that western capitalism organic growth, and have a crowded and should be able to recover from the current some eyes – a city’s residents and visitors

which is in effect Europe’s second city. with such success in Germany, Switzerland has been found wanting, and a new form Taverne-Agency I ntercontinental, OGR APH Y : Chris E verard chaotic character. The danger for some slump relatively well. The successful have somewhere pleasant to discuss its T

Los Angeles comes in at number five, with and Canada are elements that cities in the of economic leadership will evolve, with PH O newly emerging world centres is that they ingredients for both cities are in their attractions over a decent lunch.

30 citiprivatebank.com knightfrank.com 31 Property Farmland focus Farmland focus Property

gricultural land was the property market's at about €3,500 per hectare during 2008, but are result, with prices in Iowa up 14% to $11,000 per darling for much of last year. A massive land likely to weaken as potential investors struggle to hectare. Further rises now seem unlikely, as falling rush ensued as new farmland funds touted access funds this year. Farming in figures… ethanol prices threaten the viability of refineries. for business and governments from cash-rich but While the credit crunch has affected demand

currency considerations £182 food-poor nations scrambled to secure productive Price, per tonne, of UK for land in most parts of the world, Australia farmland to feed their populations. When looking at potential investments, shifts wheat at its peak in 2008. and Canada actually seem to be benefiting. The One of the key drivers was a surge in soft in exchange rates make it important to not just By January 2009 this had combination of relatively cheap land and a low-risk commodity prices. World cereal stocks were consider changes in home currency values. Despite fallen to £107 per tonne, a political and economic environment is attracting drop of 41.2%. dwindling and the price of biofuels produced from falling in value in the final quarter of 2008, English investors who might otherwise have considered crops like maize (corn) and sugar cane escalated in farmland increased by 16% overall to almost 48.7% South America or Eastern Europe. In the Canadian tandem with oil prices. Eager investors piled into £12,000 per hectare, according to the Knight Frank The fall in the price of US prairie states, average values rose 10% in 2008 to anything to do with farming and, of course, acquired Farmland Index. But sterling’s slide against the corn (maize) from its 2008 C$2,100 per hectare ($1,725), says fund manager land. In undervalued areas this helped push prices dollar and euro means land at the beginning of this peak of $7.60 per bushel to Agcapita, while in Australia, productive cereal land $3.90 this January. to more realistic levels, but in others it created an year was 16% cheaper for US buyers and 11% down rose 10% to A$4,950 per hectare ($3,450). overheated market that has now started to cool, for those from the eurozone. 44.8% as recession forces down commodity prices and Brazil is another country where fluctuations are The fall in the price of Long-term outlook potential investors struggle to access credit. In some working in favour of outside investors. One US dollar ethanol, in dollars per For the far-sighted investor, an agricultural cases the bubble has burst spectacularly. bought 1.5 reais last August; now it will buy about 2.3. gallon, from its 2008 peak downturn could be the ideal time to buy farmland. to January this year. Ukraine falls into this latter category. A country In reais, average values rose by 8% last year to R$4,330 Most commodity analysts believe the current Source: Enagri with countless under-utilised hectares of fertile black per hectare ($1,850), according to the AgraFNP land situation is a dip in a longer upwards trend driven by Chernozem soils, it seemed ripe for investment. price survey. But land used to grow sugar cane has factors such as an increasing world population and In their eagerness, many investors overlooked the been badly hit by falling ethanol values and prices in a slowdown in agricultural productivity gains. issue of land tenure: in Ukraine there is no legal some areas are said to have fallen by up to 50%. South Deciding where to invest depends on your aversion to framework for the private ownership of land – you America offers vast swathes of cheap, undeveloped risk – some areas with the highest potential returns can only buy the right to rent it. Lease agreements land that can be converted into valuable cropping or also offer the biggest challenges, particularly where of between two and 20 years were being sold for up pasture land and sold on for big profits. In Brazil it is the politics of food production are contentious. to $1,000 per hectare at the beginning of 2008. Now, still possible to buy 100,000 hectares of undeveloped Rich nations with limited agricultural resources following an IMF bailout of Ukraine, they are worth land in a single block. Prices vary, but can be as low have already been accused of neo-colonialism as research only $250, according to Brown & Co, a company that as $200 per hectare. they try to secure land in some of the world’s poorest advises on land deals in Eastern Europe and Russia. US land values are linked to farm profitability and countries. Escalating food prices prompted riots have been rising strongly. The US Department of across the developing world last year, and foreign soil searching Agriculture estimates farm incomes reached almost ownership of land may not sit well with poor Land values in nearby countries with similar soils $90bn last year, 42% above the 10-year average. Much populations struggling to feed themselves. Growing but more stable environments have fared better. In of this was fuelled by a rash of new maize-hungry • Russia, the primary land market consists of small bio-ethanol refineries. Farmland values in the Andrew Shirley is Head of Rural Property Research blocks of land distributed to individuals following Midwestern breadbasket states rose rapidly as a at Knight Frank. concerns the fall of communism. This has remained stable, While other property markets crumbled at about $300 per hectare, but large consolidated Indicative farmland prices per hectare, Year-on-year change Year-on-year change last year, global farmland values initially blocks have fallen by about 20% to $800 per hectare. january 2009 in local currency (where applicable) in US dollars

kept rising. But recently that resilience In countries where demand is also supported by P H : G etty I mages : G etty I mages P HOTOGRA N P, QV Z. P HOTO CC , A graF US (Ohio) +14% US$11,000 has been tested. Andrew Shirley indigenous farm businesses, there has been less Canada (Prairie States) US$1,725 -11% +10% C$2,100 investigates whether agriculture is of a slowdown. Within the EU, agricultural subsidy Brazil (all) US$1,850 -17% +8% R$4,330 still a good investment payments also help to level the market. In Poland, for example, arable land values have fallen since England (all) US$17,100 -16% +16% £11,850 €42,200 -16% peaking last summer, but still ended 2008 at about ireland (all#) 20,000 zlotys per hectare (€4,800), about 10% more US$58,500 -20% €9,000 No change than they were at the beginning of the year. France (arable) US$12,50 -5% New EU members, such as Romania, appeal to investors because they offer the prospect of an Poland (arable) US$6,660 -10% +10% Zl 20,000 €3,500 No change increase in capital values as land prices, bolstered by romania (arable) US$4,855 -5% subsidies and access to EU markets, gradually catch €2,250 -30% up with those in countries such as the UK. bulgaria (arable) US$3,120 -33% Investing is not without risk, however. UKRAINE* (arable) $125 -75% Agricultural infrastructure lags behind Western Europe and land tenure, while legally binding, is russia (arable) $800 -20% less transparent. Much of the land remains in small australia (arable) US$3,450 -13% +10% A$4,950 New zealand (all#)** US$9,643 -15% +13% NZ$16,683 post-communist parcels. In Romania, values stayed & C o, F Brown K night Frank, ** U ntil June 2009 # I ncluding buildings and houses S ources: lease * R ight to

32 citiprivatebank.com knightfrank.com 33 Property East versus West East versus West Property

decadent, driven by greed, and suffered from severe Trading places flaws in its economic performance. City stickler Joergen Oerstroem Moeller China and other creditors who once trusted in the Stuart Fraser system will not waste much time concluding that it The US, European and Japanese economies are did not, after all, look after their interests, so why go The financial services sector the world over is likely to contract by 1-2% this year as the global on putting their savings at its disposal? still reeling from the turmoil of the credit crunch. recession bites. By contrast, most of Asia will Their first reaction has been to buy shares in a The City of London Corporation supports and probably be capable of maintaining growth, albeit number of well-known Western financial promotes the Square Mile – and we know that at a slower rate than the last decade. China and institutions in order to transfer the knowledge base nothing can be taken for granted as we move India will expand by about 6% – perhaps higher built over decades, even centuries, from Western forward. But we must remember the City’s many with some luck – and a number of other economies institutions to Chinese institutions. The second advantages in an increasingly competitive world. in Southeast Asia will grow by 3-5%. reaction will be a gradual one in which Chinese To prepare for the recovery, we must invest now to A hot issue has been whether or not Asia has stockholders use their influence to change the attract global business. We all know what firms look decoupled from the US economy. That is mainly investment pattern in a way better suited to their for in a financial centre: a friendly and predictable a question of vocabulary. Asia has been less hit by interests. Gone are the days when Chinese and tax regime; good regulation; a pool of skilled and the calamities haunting the US economy than it other creditors lined up to buy treasury bonds the talented people; a pleasant living and working would have been five or 10 years ago, and under American public did not want. environment; and good transport. That is why half of the lower growth can be subscribed to a drop The Western institutions’ liberty to shuffle funds projects such as Crossrail, a large rail infrastructure in net exports. Out of this cauldron, the US, Japan around with an eye to their, and Western, interests initiative that the City of London Corporation has and Europe will emerge weaker while rising Asian has ended. Instead of financing expansion of championed for over 15 years, are so important. powers such as China and India will grow stronger. Western multinationals, the financial institutions Our international residents particularly enjoy the Financial centres like Shanghai will topple New York will be mobilised to finance Asian companies. As openness and tolerance of UK society. This is why so expert opinion and London from their positions as undisputed the West used its savings to sustain its economic many have taken advantage of our diverse and global financial hubs. expansion, so will Asia. transparent residential and commercial property Asia has for many years stood for the world’s The third reaction will be to transfer power market to establish permanent homes. savings. The flywheel for the global economy was from Western institutions partly owned by Asian The eastward shift of the global economy will China’s readiness to allow the US to consume investors, including Asian governments through continue, and financial centres in Asia will grow in Tigers beyond its means. China put its savings at the sovereign wealth funds, to genuine Asian financial importance, but this is not necessarily bad for disposal of the US consumer and was paid with two institutions domiciled in the region. These will London: we can position ourselves as the partner of trillion in greenbacks, which accumulated in its primarily be Asian financial centres such as choice for these growing centres. London has take on coffers. China’s own financial system, however, was Shanghai and Mumbai, but maybe also Singapore, exceptional expertise to offer – in traditional areas weak, not only making foreign assets attractive, but Hong Kong and Tokyo. It is too early to predict such as the English legal system as well as innovative the west also disqualifying Chinese financial institutions as exact locations. Asia will follow in the footsteps of new fields such as carbon trading. Our language, Will burgeoning Asian financial centres such as players on the global financial markets. Europeans in the 19th century and the US in the accepted as the mother tongue of business, is a Singapore and Mumbai oust London from its place? Consequently, the Chinese authorities concluded 20th century, combining manufacturing and high strategic advantage and, as a full member of the EU, that their interests were best served by asking technology with financial power to create a real we can act as a bridge between the world’s largest Economist Joergen Oerstroem Moeller argues Western, primarily US, financial institutions that power base for exercising global leadership. trading block and the rest of the globe. controversially for the East, while Stuart Fraser excelled in knowledge, expertise and reputation to It is an inescapable conclusion that financial Taxation is one of the most important factors presents the counter view invest the money and ensure a high yield. This is how power moves to where production takes place. The businesses consider when choosing where to locate. Wall Street and the City became guardians of the world has never seen any other model. The answer The government’s decision last year to tax profits illustrations by luke wilson world’s savings. is no longer blowing in the wind. It is right here where they are earned could make the UK a highly The crash disclosed that this perception had little before our eyes, telling us that Asia will take over attractive location for headquarters. Research shows to do with reality. Some Western institutions proved establishing the world’s coming financial centres. companies want not only low rates, but also a to be not only not able, trustworthy or competent, It will not happen overnight. It will take time, predictable tax regime enforced consistently. but also irresponsible, violating almost all rules but it will happen. In our eyes, the growth of the East is an about how to serve the interest of the depositor. • opportunity to build strong partnerships with Asia’s This breakdown has undermined the Joergen Oerstroem Moeller is Visiting Senior leading financial centres, which can only strengthen attractiveness of the Western edition of capitalism Research Fellow at the Institute of Southeast the financial services sector here. as the model to lead the world into decades of Asian Studies, Singapore and Adjunct Professor • growth and prosperity. It has also revealed the at Copenhagen Business School and Singapore Stuart Fraser is Chairman of Policy at the City of unwelcome truth that this system was morally Management University. London Corporation. www.cityoflondon.gov.uk

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An invested interest

Andrew Shirley assesses how the markets for fine wine, art and fast cars have fared during the credit crunch and discovers that there are some shrewd purchases to be had for the canny investor

portfolio of stunning followed prices ever higher and then gleefully property is only one of the unleashed their gloomy headlines when the market accoutrements needed to turned. However, the Mei Moses index, which create a luxurious lifestyle. tracks auction results, reveals prices actually fell Millions are spent on average by a relatively modest 4.5% last year. But ensuring wine cellars are this comes after five years of stratospheric growth bursting with the right averaging 20% a year and masks a sharp downturn vintages and garages are in certain sectors of the market. lined with gorgeous, Contemporary art has suffered most, with many growling thoroughbreds from classic marques – works failing to sell at auction at the end of 2008. and there seems little point owning the most But, as Henry Wyndham, Chairman of Sotheby’s expensive real estate if its walls aren’t adorned Europe, admits, the market – which reached a with the most desirable art. spectacular zenith with his firm’s £111m Damien But, like bricks and mortar, such luxury assets Hirst sale last September – had become overheated. increasingly serve two purposes. They are to be “Since 2006, prices had doubled or even trebled in enjoyed, savoured, admired and sometimes even some cases.” Contemporary prices have got to be consumed, but commonly their owners also expect a readjusted back to levels seen in 2005 or 2006, he more tangible return. Wine, art and cars are now all states. “I think now could be the time to buy.” considered, by some at least, as investment classes Other sectors and even some relatively modern in their own right. Indices track their performance artists are still delivering strong results, says and funds buy and sell them without enjoying or Wyndham. “There is definitely still a market out even appreciating the desirability of their assets. So there and there are still a lot of people with a lot of how have the markets for these luxuries been money.” Last November, for example, a 1916 work Heartbutterfly stopper: effect: performing while the credit crunch sliced and diced by Russian artist Kazimir Malevich achieved $60m Sotheby’ssotheby’s £111m Damien its way through more traditional investments? If you at auction by Sotheby’s in New York. Works by Degas Hirst sale last September,september, believe the headlines, some markets have virtually and Munch also sold for over $30m at the same sale. which included this piece, was the swansong of an collapsed. Speak to the experts, however, and it The market for Old Masters is far less dictated overheated contemporary becomes harder to generalise. by fashion and tends to be dominated by serious art market Like property, the art market has suffered a very collectors who have been buying for many years.

PHOTOGRAPHY: Rex Features, Getty Images Getty Features, Rex PHOTOGRAPHY: public fall from grace. Breathless commentators Market estimates for this year’s sales will reflect

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the economic downturn, says Wyndham, but not nearly as dramatically as for contemporary art. “If you don’t buy a Rembrandt today, you might have to The new nationalism wait years for the opportunity.” in art collecting Jonathan Binstock, Senior Adviser at Citi Private George Bailey Bank’s Art Advisory Service, believes the market is correcting, not disintegrating. “A lot of what An observer of the art market in 2008 could not happened was irrational, but the speculators have fail to note how fundamentally the collecting gone from the market and some of the serious landscape has changed. An art world once largely collectors who were put off by the ‘hot’ prices are confined to Western Europe, the United States and now back.” isolated parts of Asia had, in the space of a decade, Although he says auction houses will be attaching become complete. The end of communism and far more conservative estimates to their 2009 sales resulting creation of private wealth returned two and certainly won’t be offering the kind of price great players to the art market – Russia and China. guarantees that were seen at the peak of the market, Last year an astonishing £183m-worth of Russian Binstock cautions that public sales don’t tell the art changed hands at Sotheby’s and Christie’s. Eight whole story. “In this market I think more people will years ago it was a mere £4m. Likewise, sales of choose to sell privately and a number of sales on the Chinese art have grown exponentially, particularly private market have been very encouraging,” he says. Selling price contemporary art, which raised $133.7m at “The market is not gone by any stretch.” 1965 Ferrari Sotheby’s in 2007, compared with $2.9m in 2004. Fine wine is another area that has experienced 275 GTB The re-emergence of China and Russia on the some sharp headline drops since the credit crunch, world stage and the attendant economic growth new £6,000 but again those in the trade remain optimistic. early 1970s £3,000 and cultural transformation has brought about “The wine market was slow to react,” says Thomas late 1970s £18,000 huge demand for the very finest works of art, and Jenkins, Broking Manager at Justerini & Brooks, one goon Down: early 1980s £24,000 for objects of the greatest artistic and historical of London’s oldest wine merchants. “While Despite its status as a 1987 £150,000 significance. This has transformed auction well-known banks were going to the wall, some 2000 schoolboy fantasy, the 1989 £800,000 houses into a platform for repatriating Chinese Ferrari 275 GTB 1991 £120,000 vintage Bordeaux achieved record prices at auction.” and Russian cultural treasures. (here driven by Peter 2006 £500,000 Even in December, a Hong Kong-based wine lover Sellers in 1965), has 2008 £700,000 For Russian art, the defining moment came in softened in value paid HK$3.2m (about £112,000) for a case of 1961 2009 £600,000 January 2004 when Sotheby’s sold Malcolm Forbes’s Latour auctioned by Christie’s. Prices at auction. Source: Bonhams fabled Imperial Fabergé Collection to prominent What eventually took some of the steam out of Russian industrialist Victor Vekselberg for $100m. the market, says Jenkins, was not a drop in demand vintages in their portfolios. The production of some not big buyers of classic cars anyway. “Most of the Vekselberg returned these treasures of Russian from private purchasers, but a sudden off-loading first-growth vintages is down to only 15,000 cases, rich from emerging markets where a lot of wealth heritage to their homeland to great acclaim. of specific vintages in the last few months of 2008. “While some as producers concentrate on quality at the expense has been created and lost tend to prefer the latest The artistic legacy of China stretches back five These were sold by wine funds set up over the past well-known of quantity. Burgundies are also sought after, but high-performance and luxury cars. It’s the same in thousand years, and there have recently been similar 10 years to capitalise on the demand for alternative banks were with some vineyards issuing as few as 200 cases, London. A lot of people from the banking sector stories of repatriation of lost Chinese cultural relics. investments. “In September, a case of 2005 Lafite going to the getting hold of the most desirable vintages can who sadly lost their jobs would have been driving In 2007, Sotheby’s sold an 18th-century bronze was worth £9,400; at the beginning of the year it was prove extremely difficult, even for those who have the newest Aston or Ferrari, not a classic.” horse head, cast by Jesuit missionaries for the down to £6,800. It could go down a bit further, but wall, 2000 the best connections. As with the art market, much will come down to Summer Palace, for HK$69.1m to Dr Stanley Ho, we’ve already seen the market start to pick up again vintage In the world of classic cars, James Knight, supply and demand, with some marques holding who donated it to China. The sale of Xu Beihing’s now there is no stock on the market. A lot of people Bordeaux International Managing Director of Motor Cars at their own while others lose more ground, predicts masterpiece, Put Down Your Whip, achieved with a lot of money are waiting to buy quality wines achieved Bonhams, says he knew the credit crunch had started Knight. “There will always be some cars, like the HK$72m, an auction record for a Chinese painting. at bargain prices.” record prices to bite during his firm’s annual winter auction of Jaguar D-type, that are regarded as very important. This new nationalism is not limited to just Russia Growing global demand and a fall in production Ferraris in Gstaad. “Usually we have a 70% sale rate; There are only about 85 of them left.” and China but also applies to Greece, India, Turkey by some leading chateaux should also help maintain at auction” last year it was down to 40%. However, those cars that Cars that could see their values soften are those and the Middle East. Sales of Greek art at Sotheby’s prices, believes Jenkins. “I think there is enough did sell still went for good money.” which though extremely desirable are not especially alone have grown 550% since 2000, while in the wealth out there to maintain prices at current levels Knight believes that car values will weaken as rare. The 1965 Ferrari 275 GTB is a case in point, says Middle East a multitude of new museums and and we’ll be back to mid-2008 values by 2010.” the global recession deepens, but he doesn’t think Knight. “It’s every schoolboy’s fantasy, but recently galleries are acquiring on a large scale. Despite losing its grip on the mass market, that the decline will be on the same scale as in the there were eight of them on the market. If there were Today, prices have seen a degree of recalibration, France is still king when it comes to the very top of early 1990s, when prices collapsed. “Many of the only one or two it would be a different story.” but results show that great art continues to find the wine hierarchy. Classic Bordeaux like Mouton, cars that had to be sold in a hurry then were bought The message from those who deal with the finest buyers, and that collectors – whether Russian, Latour, Lafite and Margaux remain the investment with borrowed money. In recent times, the market examples that the worlds of art, cars and wine have Chinese or British – are still attracted by art that is wines of choice, but supply is strictly rationed to has been far more liquid and fewer cars are bought to offer seems to be to act now if you’re looking for rare, high-quality and of exceptional provenance. long-standing clients. This means that wine funds like that now.” a bargain. There is only a finite supply of the very • have to compete on the open market and pay He also says many of the people whose fortunes best and demand could soon start to outstrip George Bailey is Chairman of Business Development premium prices if they want to include the best have been most affected by the credit crunch were supply once again.• for Europe at Sotheby’s. www.sothebys.com 38 citiprivatebank.com knightfrank.com 39 Trends New directions New directions Trends Luxury reinvented

Will the credit crunch affect the trends the wealthy follow as much as the value of their houses and investments? Luxury commentator Katherine Vaughan investigates

hen fashion guru Karl Lagerfeld of Chanel says that bling is over and has been replaced by something he terms the “new modesty”, you know that even in the rarefied world of the super stylish the credit crunch is having a dramatic impact. From fashion to design, the new emphasis is on recessionary luxury, and there is a tangible shift towards something more considered in terms of consumption and lifestyle – more suited to these crisis-ridden times. Inconspicuous consumption does not mean that the luxury lifestyle has vanished. The move is towards something more thoughtful, more sophisticated and of course much better for us.

Property In difficult economic times we can expect a return to the safe and familiar. As the trend spotters at the New York-based Luxury Institute noted recently, “Wealthy customers will opt for classic luxury that is unique and exclusive.” This trend is mirrored in the international second homes market, where Patrick Dring, Head of International Sales for Knight Frank, says the tried-and-tested playgrounds and investment hot spots of the rich and famous are still the places to be. The list of sought-after locations reads like a classic guide to the traditional world of the international super-rich. In Europe, it’s Saint-Jean-Cap-Ferrat, Cap D’Antibes, Cannes, St Tropez, Mallorca, Ibiza, Portofino, Capri, Tuscany and Como. In the US and Caribbean it’s New York, The Hamptons, Palm Beach, Barbados and Mustique. The credit crunch has reinforced a trend towards downshifting in terms of lifestyle, which has fed a greater interest in both provenance and authenticity. Although the

PHOTOGRAPHY: Scott Frances: Marge Casey + Associates Casey Marge Frances: Scott PHOTOGRAPHY: wealthy have long sought out bucolic boltholes, these are

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becoming more than just places to relax and According to acclaimed interior designer Janine Travel consume. Celebrity exponents of a luxury Stone, “We are seeing a new level of refinement in Luxury travel is no longer just about an infinity pool grow-your-own lifestyle include rock star Sting and the artisanal quality and specification that high net and unbeatable service: the very perception of what his wife Trudie Styler who have developed both worth clients expect.” She predicts that this year is luxurious is changing – and it’s being defined by their UK-based Lake House organic brand, supplied “textures and finishes will be understated luxe, the individual. Anonymous luxury has been from their farm in Wiltshire, and sales of honey moving away from lavish detail to show honesty, replaced with a drive towards real local experiences and extra virgin olive oil from their Il Palagio estate simplicity and integrity. There will be a focus on that are strongly linked to the destination, in Tuscany. On a smaller scale, the ever-glamorous properties and objects that reflect a sense of environment and indigenous culture. Ledbury Elizabeth Hurley manages to combine her various authenticity, craftsmanship, heritage and skill.” Research, which specialises in helping brands to ventures with a new business. She has started Houston Morris, of contemporary design understand and reach the wealthy, says wealthy supplying British pork from heritage breed company Houston Morris Architects, believes that travellers are looking for educational experiences Gloucester Old Spots to local butchers and retailers quality of space and light is at the heart of rather than just relaxation. Now, more than ever, from her 400-acre Gloucestershire estate. enhancing his clients’ way of living. Adding volume guests want to be participants, not spectators. So Even on a determinedly non-commercial scale, rather than just floor space may once have been what do the cool finders predict for this year? international buyers are looking to get the deemed counter-intuitive in terms of enchancing Urban resorts are very much on the agenda, maximum lifestyle value out of their country a property’s value – for example, by adding a offering the perfect mix of architectural and cultural properties by installing beehives for home-grown structural double-height conservatory made of significance, together with opportunities for honey, establishing fruit orchards and creating the frameless glass – however it works because it makes creative curiosity. Rocco Forte’s boutique hotel, most elegant but also productive of old-fashioned daily living indulgent. Uber-hip designer Martin The Augustine, opens in Prague this spring. Created kitchen gardens. For the super-rich, simple Brudnizki has a self-termed signature style of from a complex of historic buildings, such as the entertaining at home, serving truly home-grown ‘minimalism deluxe’ that reflects the design trend 13th-century Augustinian St Thomas’s Monastery, produce, wins hands down in the glamour stakes for comfort and indulgence alongside pared-down it has kept many key historic features, including the over the latest celebrity chef’s restaurant. Seasonal, purity and simplicity. As he puts it: “Pair echoes of plainchant from the in situ monks. sustainable, good for the planet and very eco-chic. sumptuous materials with straightforward When it comes to cool destinations, our industry If one of the joys of having serious amounts of architecture and you’ll have the ultimate refuge.” insiders are unanimous, touting South America as money is the luxury to indulge one’s passions then, the place to explore this year. Watch out for for wealthy wine aficionados, seeking out the Art Trancoso in Brazil, ‘the St Barts of South America’, perfect chateau with accompanying vineyards is Although contemporary art has taken a hit recently which is more than cool enough for the likes of still high on the agenda. Whether it’s in Europe, (see page 36), contemporary furniture is still highly Leonardo DiCaprio and Matt Damon, while the US, Argentina, Chile, South Africa, New Zealand fashionable. Names to watch include Ron Arad, Uruguay and Argentina are also being tipped. or Australia, buying a vineyard is an increasingly Donald Judd, Danny Lam and acclaimed architect Extended holidays are a growing trend, states popular venture. Amanda Skinner, from UK wine Zaha Hadid, who has extended her reach into the The Future Laboratory. According to them, it’s experts, Private Cellar, says, “Although there’s no world of furniture, lighting and bathroom fittings. about the luxury of total contact – a merging of doubt that this is a capital-hungry occupation, you And don't miss Klauser & Carpenter, whose work business and pleasure where we take longer end up with a lifestyle that money alone can’t buy.” was showcased at last year’s London Frieze Art Fair. holidays but still spend time working remotely, too. Some celebrated names have led the field, such The trend for innovative lighting also continues; Of course this requires a rethink of, and as Sam Neill, the New Zealand actor, who produces 21st-century ‘chandeliers’ are increasingly sought reinvestment in, the traditional hotel business Pinot wines under the Kiwi Two Paddocks label, and after. Now seen as collectable sculptures in their centre. From being something of the poor relation, film director Francis Ford Coppola, who sells under Textile designer Geraldine Larkin is a perfect Bright idea: Pieke own right, these pieces can command enormous it’s now moving up the scale of importance. The the Niebaum-Coppola label from Napa Valley. example of this new ethos. She has a world-class Bergmans’ ‘Light Bulb’ sums. The recently held global design forum, Future Laboratory predicts that it will become as chandelier. Innovative Design Miami, saw a perfect example of this, with a crucial to luxury hotels as the spa or wellness centre. “The very reputation for designing highly luxurious and lighting is considered Design and interiors wealthy don’t understated hand-embroidered textiles that are sculpture in its own right select group of collectors ordering Dutch artist And what about the most important trends in The main themes in design and interiors are very want statement used by many of the most famous fashion and Pieke Bergmans’ ‘Light Bulb’ chandelier from the travel for the 21st century – sustainability and the simple – quality and sustainability. Good design designs any couture houses and interior decorators. Larkin says: Netherlands-based Priveekollektie Contemporary environment? According to Sonu Shivdasani, has always been an international currency. The “The top end of the market is still spending but in Art/Design gallery. Swarovski Crystal Palace Chairman and CEO of Six Senses, despite the fact world of luxury homes and interiors hasn't more. Now an understated way, where the textiles speak before showcased a chandelier-based installation, that “people are facing the reality of a financial disappeared beneath the radar but has evolved into it’s all about the label. The very wealthy don’t want mass-branded comprising a chandelier and table entitled ‘Liquid rather than environmental crisis, there will be a something beyond brands and definitely doesn’t wealth products and they don’t want statement designs any Space’, by world-renowned British industrial continued emphasis on sustainable travel”. He come blazing a logo. whispering” more. They want style and simple luxury: now it’s all designer Ross Lovegrove, which sums up the mood maintains that the current situation is making The Luxury Institute believes consumers will about wealth whispering.” for 2009: it celebrates uniqueness, movement, sophisticated luxury consumers even more aware look extensively to their own peers for guidance of Karen Howes, of Taylor Howes Designs, which rarity, simple organic forms, modest designs and of the plight of the planet. what is, and what is not, true luxury. Craft has won the prestigious Andrew Martin Interior natural materials combined with cutting-edge – Despite the credit crunch, luxury has not returned, with a focus on longevity. The new Design Award in 2006, is currently working on albeit hidden – technology. The chandelier and disappeared but reinvented itself. interiors trends look to emulate the qualities of a Imperial Wharf, a riverside development in table that make up ‘Liquid Space’ are custom-made • Savile Row suit – beautiful materials, textures and London. She says: “Understated quality and and priced at a suitably luxurious $825,000 and Katherine Vaughan is a freelance writer specialising fabrics, exquisite detail and bespoke design. The discreet luxury are the trends moving forward at $425,000 respectively. An opulent price for a in luxury lifestyle brands who contributes to wealthy are still buying, just less but better. the high end of the market.” contemporary slice of world-class design. Very 2009. Spectator Business and TTA Group's Industry Insights.

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lejandro Gutierrez speaks calmly as and because of that you can at least partially get the avenues for the wealthy investor looking for we discuss the issues facing cities life of a medium-sized city. I can cycle to work in sustainable, yet profitable, opportunities. “Surveys today – the pollution, the congestion, 15 minutes and do everything I need to do around “Parks, public in the US show that buildings certified by the the vast carbon footprint hastening where I live.” transport, Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design the process of global warming. He Acknowledging that not everybody is so lucky, pavements scheme [which meet certain sustainability doesn’t raise his voice or gesticulate, unlike many Gutierrez believes one of the key things for the and the way standards] attract a higher rent per square metre, environmental campaigners when they start to future will be to start making, or helping, people because people value their energy security, energy proselytise, but the visionary young architect and make the right choices by pricing carbon or fuel in city dwellers efficiency and lower operational costs, as well as the urban designer leaves you in no doubt as to how different ways. London’s congestion charge, which procure their prestige of being able to say in the annual serious he thinks the consequences will be for urban he applauds, is an obvious example, but some of the energy are all shareholder report that they reduced their carbon areas, which by 2050 will house two-thirds of the ideas he mentions go much further than that. In the relevant to emissions by taking space in those buildings.” world’s population, if we don’t start addressing their US, for example, the idea has been mooted of quality of life” Although initiatives such as the Clinton problems now. Climate change and dwindling or mortgages where the interest rate becomes more Foundation’s C40 alliance, which has persuaded 40 polluted natural resources will threaten both cities’ expensive the further you live from your place of of the world’s leading cities to commit to reducing and mankind’s ability to survive. It’s a fairly bleak work. “When you start looking at things at that level, their carbon footprints, are encouraging, Gutierrez assessment that leaves no room for complacency. it will start to cluster people around their work despairs when he sees so much unsustainable Gutierrez, who works for engineering and design places in a highly efficient way. These are the things development continuing around the world. “But if giant Arup, also makes it clear that he’s not anti-city. that will start to change the future of cities.” we focus on those disasters we could be crying. We expert opinion In fact, the Chilean-born Hampstead resident loves Ideas like this may sound uncomfortable to most need to focus on those things that could get us out cities, which probably explains why he wants to help of us now – uneasy as we already are with the of the very risky position the planet is in today.” save them. What inspires him is the ability of the growing influence of politicians and regulators on Again, Gutierrez comes back to the need for the public parts of cities to improve the lives of their our lives – but something has to be done, says right incentives or legal frameworks that allow inhabitants. “The parks, the pavements, public Gutierrez. “We are already experiencing a traditional governments to make the right decisions. “The The transport, the way city dwellers procure their energy economic meltdown, but I think the biggest moment you put a price to carbon, however you do it are all so relevant to quality of life,” he says. “We challenge we will have is how we get hold of – through trade, tax or pricing it at a personal level – carbon tend to focus on the quality of our private and resources to fuel our lifestyles – and that includes you will see behaviour change and that change will commercial space, where we work and live, but as the Chinese, the Brazilians, the Russians and all be at all scales, from personal, to metropolitan, to anybody in the real estate industry knows, the those other countries that are fast developing. As we national,” he says. factor context of where you put a thing, whatever that produce things today, as we create energy today, the Saving the world may sound a slightly ambitious World-leading architect and urban designer thing may be, is as important as the thing itself.” way we move around cities today, there are not addition to the traditional role of the planner or Alejandro Gutierrez says cities must change As a student of both economics and architecture, enough resources. There needs to be a fundamental architect, but that is what makes integrated radically if we are to win the battle against Gutierrez is fascinated by how the relationship change in how we use resources, how we reduce urbanism – the idea that cities need to adapt into global warming. Andrew Shirley meets him between built form and the way it is shaped by resource consumption and we need to stop more habitable places to live, which Gutierrez and economic, social and environmental drivers is depleting the elements that support life, like water his colleagues pioneered at Arup – different. “People

illustration by luke wilson crystallised in cities. Medium-sized ones – Verona and air. It sounds simple but we are not doing it.” are doing design better or worse, but they’re not in northern Italy is a favourite – are the most Such things sound expensive, especially during addressing the central problem of this age, which interesting, he says. “They have a scale that allows a global recession, but Gutierrez envisages a new is resource efficiency, and how it relates to cultural, you to do things in much quicker, faster and easier greener economy where environmental measures social and economic development.” ways and to have social contact while at the same will shift from becoming a burden to creating new Talking, of course, is easy but as the lead designer time, having the diversity and resilience as an investment sources and industries, offering the of Dongtan, the world’s first major eco-city designed economic entity to allow the supply of good jobs, opportunity to tackle both the economic downturn completely from scratch, Gutierrez has shown, on retail opportunities and services. Big cities work less and the climate crisis. “That could be the most paper at least, how his ideals can coalesce into a well in the sense that regardless of the level of wealth powerful thing to happen in the next 10 years. We viable, attractive and environmentally sustainable or development, the sheer distance you have to go need to have environments of a sufficient scale to urban environment. Ironically, his creation is in through makes them difficult.” test the new technologies and systems.” China, the world’s fastest growing polluter. But Despite its size, London is one of the few big cities He says there is already an investment case for even China, it seems, recognises that the that works, he says. “It’s more a collection of villages reducing carbon emissions, which could provide detrimental side effects from rapid and unchecked

44 citiprivatebank.com knightfrank.com 45 Trends Sustainable cities

urban blueprint: Dongtan offers a sustainable housing solution for big cities

industrial growth eventually start to put the brakes integrated urban ecosystem with its own on further wealth creation, as natural resources environmental rhythms, far removed from a become polluted and unusable. Located on an “People laugh conventional planning blueprint. island in the Yangtze Delta close to the financial at me when Dongtan looks like an impressive model for the powerhouse of Shanghai, Dongtan was supposed I talk about future, however the biggest challenge is retrofitting to be part of the country’s solution, a blueprint that cities being the existing cities that account for the majority of other developing Asian nations can copy, though the built stock, says Gutierrez. “It should, for example, city remains unbuilt at the present time. carbon neutral be the norm for energy service companies to export Arup’s brief for the new city left little room for in 40 years, but energy from new developments into surrounding compromise. In addition to the inherent challenge we have seen districts.” Economics will also force change – not of building a large settlement on a low-lying marsh, changes of this necessarily by changing the physical structure of all Dongtan’s power needed to come from local magnitude cities, but by altering how we use it. renewable energy sources and the delicate ecology before” “It will be based on a different paradigm,” says of the island, home to the rare black-faced spoonbill Gutierrez. “Cheap oil has generated this way we bird, could not be harmed. move around cities, but it is now becoming Settling on the right population density was key depleted. I don’t think commuting from any to Gutierrez’s master plan. He wanted to avoid distance will make sense. Instead of everybody unsustainable high-rise developments while travelling to work in the same place, more people ensuring there were sufficiently dense population will work from home and firms will have smaller clusters to make local renewable power generation offices in different locations. viable and to encourage walking or cycling between “People laugh at me when I talk about cities being home, leisure and work spaces. The result was carbon neutral within 40 years, but we have seen surprising. Despite limiting buildings to a changes of this magnitude before. Who would have maximum of eight storeys, 500,000 people could believed in 1770 that in just 40 years the amount of be fitted into an area originally mooted for just cloth produced by 200 workers would be made by 50,000. Commuters would reduce, on average, one machine? It can happen.” Some of the changes travelling time by 20 days a year, but 65% of the needed to make it happen will not only affect the land could still be devoted to parks, farmland and houses and cities we live in, but also our lifestyles. the ponds and flood cells needed to cope with “We may not have any freedom if we keep all the changing water levels. freedoms we have today.” A centrally located power plant burning rice It’s a tough message, admits Gutierrez, but if we husks, a common agricultural by-product in China, change the way in which we consume, travel and would heat and cool the entire city, while at the procure energy and food, in 50 years’ time we may be micro level homes would be fitted with energy leading much healthier lifestyles than today. performance meters, coupled with usage-based • price tariffs, to help homeowners reduce their Alejandro Gutierrez is an Associate Director at consumption. What is proposed is a totally Arup. www.arup.com

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knightfrank.com 47 Issue 03, 2009 Giving: The changing face of philanthropy Property: How are prime residential locations performing? Wealth: Alain de Botton questions its meaning now Economics: Will the West be eclipsed by emerging Asian financial centres? Attitudes: How the credit crunch is affecting the behaviour of HNWIs Trends: Dispatches from the frontline of luxury living Investments: Buying into classic cars and vintage Bordeaux Hot spots: The world’s best cities revealed Design: Urban architect Alejandro Gutierrez wants to revolutionise the way we live Insight into global wealth

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