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Centre of Policy Studies Research Summaries

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Centre of Policy Studies Research Summaries CENTRE OF POLICY STUDIES RESEARCH SUMMARIES FINDINGS FROM OUR WORLDWIDE MODELLING PROJECTS Compiled and edited by James Giesecke, INTRODUCTION CoPS Director, March 2017 Researchers at the Centre of Policy and the departments of Commerce, • the incorporation into CGE models of Studies (CoPS) have been world leaders Agriculture, Transportation, insights from modern trade theory; in computable general equilibrium Homeland Security and Energy in the • the specification in a CGE framework (CGE) modelling for over 40 years. Our US; and the State Information Centre of markets for labour disaggregated models are used in many countries to in China; and, by skill, education, occupation, birth analyze a diverse range of economic • trained several thousand people in place and legal status; issues. Output from CoPS models has the use of CGE models. • the incorporation into CGE models informed the highest level of policy The achievements of the CoPS team of increasingly detailed economic/ decision-making. The team has a have been recognised in many ways: engineering/geographic data on history dating back to 1975. Over that nine members have been promoted to energy, water, greenhouse gases, history, CoPS has: full professor through their work with the land use, and transportation; • produced computable general group; four have been elected fellows • the development of large-scale equilibrium (CGE)1 models (ORANI, of the Academy of the Social Sciences multi-regional models capable of MONASH, MMRF, TERM, USAGE, in Australia; three have been inducted accommodating high levels of threat CHINAGEM, VU-National, VURM) to the Hall of Fame of the Global Trade specific detail for a very large number that have been world leading in terms Analysis Project; two have received the of terrorism risk scenarios; of technique; highest award of the Economic Society of • combining the best of CGE and • applied models to an enormous range Australia, the Distinguished Fellowship; DSGE modelling: high levels of policy of economic issues in Australia, the two have been recognised under the relevant detail with decision-making US, China, and many other countries; Australian Honours System (one AO under uncertainty; • ensured the relevance of its modelling and one AM); and one has been • enhancement of GEMPACK software by techniques to current policy issues appointed to the Editorship of an Elsevier the exploitation of parallel computing by working closely with major policy Handbook in Economics, the world’s and extending supported data types to organisations such as: the Productivity most prestigious economics series. allow double-precision accuracy; Commission, the Commonwealth At every point in its history, CoPS has Treasury, and many Australian undertaken both application work on • the incorporation into CGE models state government departments; the major issues and fundamental research of financial sector detail covering International Trade Commission consistent with its vision. Current financial agents, financial instruments fundamental research includes: and the policy actions of the central bank; and, 02 • CENTRE OF POLICY STUDIES • VICTORIA UNIVERSITY RESEARCH AT CoPS CONTENTS • bottom-up modelling of city-specific 01 MODELLING TERRORIST ATTACKS TO AID detail for analysis of congestion, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKERS PAGE 05 agglomeration, transportation, and 02 THE IMPACT OF A CUT TO COMPANY TAX 06 urban-environment issues. The shared vision of the CoPS team 03 COPS’ MODELLING OF ISSUES ASSOCIATED is to be a world-leading organization WITH CLIMATE CHANGE AND GREENHOUSE POLICY 07 for elucidating economic problems 04 TRAINING IN COMPUTABLE and improving policy via the creation, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELLING 08 dissemination, application and solution 05 GEMPACK: SOFTWARE FOR SOLVING CGE MODELS 09 of economy-wide models. This report summarises the recent history of the 06 STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT IN THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY 10 realisation of that vision, containing 30 vignettes describing a selection of 07 NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN CGE MODELLING: FINANCIAL CGE MODELS 11 the research projects undertaken by the CoPS team over the last few years. 08 STEM AND THE LABOUR MARKET 12 These vignettes demonstrate the breadth of important policy topics investigated 09 EMPLOYMENT FORECASTING IN A CGE MODEL 13 by the CoPS team, the important 10 FEES AND COMMONWEALTH SUPPORT IN HIGHER EDUCATION 14 domestic and international agencies that have funded the work, and the high 11 REGIONAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF LOCAL UNIVERSITIES 15 quality academic publications that the 12 ISSUES IN US IMMIGRATION POLICY 16 work has generated. 13 MODELLING THE REGIONAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF AUSTRALIAN IMMIGRATION 17 1These are economy-wide models based on optimizing behaviour by individual agents. 14 BUILDING CGE MODELLING CAPACITY FOR CHINA 18 They can give detailed descriptions of 15 MODELLING RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION industries, regions, occupations, financial AND LABOUR MARKET REFORM IN CHINA 19 sectors, socio-economic groups, government finances, land use, pollution emissions, and 16 MODELLING CHINA’S ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES 20 macroeconomic variables. 17 FARM SUBSIDIES IN INDIA: DO THEY REALLY HELP FARMERS? 21 18 BUILDING CAPACITY FOR ECONOMIC POLICY ANALYSIS 22 19 TAKING COPS TO THE MIDDLE EAST 23 20 WHAT’S REALLY AT STAKE WITH FREE-TRADE AGREEMENTS? 24 21 MODERN TRADE THEORY: WHAT DOES IT OFFER POLICY MODELLERS? 25 22 USAGE-TERM: DEPICTING US STATES AND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS AS SEPARATE ECONOMIES 26 23 A DYNAMIC FISCAL CGE MODEL OF FLORIDA 27 24 MEGA SPORTING EVENTS: GAME OVER FOR THE OLYMPICS BONANZA STORY 28 25 CGE MODELLING IN AFRICA 29 26 EXPLORING THE CONSEQUENCES OF AGRICULTURAL INTERVENTIONS 30 27 MODELLING ECONOMIC CHANGE IN BRAZIL 31 28 MODELLING ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF PANDEMICS: THE 2013-2015 EBOLA OUTBREAK 32 29 THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL EPIDEMICS 33 30 NAFTA: HAS IT CAUSED STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT PROBLEMS FOR THE US? 34 OUR PARTNERS AND FUNDERS 35 CoPS RESEARCH • 03 04 • CENTRE OF POLICY STUDIES • VICTORIA UNIVERSITY RESEARCH AT CoPS MODELLING TERRORIST ATTACKS TO AID EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKERS #01 DHS was established in response to the FUNDERS Center for Risk and Economic Analysis 9/11 attacks. With other US security, of Terrorism Events (CREATE) US Department of Homeland emergency management and public health Security (DHS). agencies, DHS makes contingency plans RESEARCHERS for diverse threat scenarios. Professor Peter Dixon Professor James Giesecke WORKING WITH CREATE, A DHS- role for policy intervention. BI might be Dr Jason Nassios funded research centre at the University of minimised by expeditious site clean-up, Professor Maureen Rimmer Southern California, CoPS has helped DHS judicious application of environmental Professor Glyn Wittwer understand the economic consequences of regulations, and effective communication PUBLICATIONS these scenarios. of decontamination efforts. Prior planning J. Nassios, J. Giesecke Our first study was in response to a to resolve potential conflicts among (under review) “Informing ex-ante event DHS and US Treasury request for analysis stakeholders could further lessen delays in studies with macro-econometric evidence of a shutdown of US borders to movements getting business back to work. on the structural and policy impacts of of people and goods; a possible reaction Values for the magnitudes of terrorism”, Risk Analysis. to threats from a pandemic or international behavioural effects in ex-ante CGE studies P. Dixon, M. Rimmer, G. Wittwer, terrorism. Using CoPS’ USAGE model of of terrorism have typically been inferred A. Rose, N. Heatwole (2016) “Economic consequences of the US, we found the cost of full border or estimated by indirect means (e.g. via terrorism and natural disasters: the CGE closure would be severe, with the possibility literature review or survey). An important approach”, in A. Abbas, D. von Winterfeldt of a GDP collapse in the vicinity of 50 per question for policy analysts is: how confident and M. Tambe (eds), Improving Homeland cent. Banning “bottleneck” imports, like oil, can they be in the validity of input values Security Decisions, CREATE Handbook, contributes disproportionately to the policy’s sourced this way? To investigate this, we Cambridge University Press. cost, but drawing on inventories of such used USAGE to infer the movements in J. Giesecke, W. Burns, A. Rose, commodities (like the Strategic Petroleum variables describing behavioural and BI T. Barrett, M. Griffith (2015) “Regional Dynamics under Adverse Reserve) alleviates the GDP impact by eight effects that are implicit in ex-post macro- Physical and Behavioral Shocks: The percentage points. Exempting bottleneck econometric evidence on the effects of Economic Consequences of a Chlorine imports from the ban alleviates the GDP terrorism. We found that the values for Terrorist Attack in the Los Angeles Financial impact by a further 30 percentage points. behavioural and BI effects calculated in this District”, in P. Nijkamp, A. Rose and K. Kourtit (eds), Regional Science Matters – These results highlight the importance of way were of a similar magnitude to those Studies Dedicated to Walter Isard, Springer selectivity and strategic commodity reserves, calculated via indirect means. This adds to Verlag, Berlin. should border closure ever be contemplated. the confidence that policy makers can place J.A. Giesecke, W. Burns, A. Barret, Subsequently, we examined specific in carefully conducted ex-ante studies. E. Bayrak, A. Rose, P. Slovic, M. Suher threat
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