Bulletin #27 • August 2019 • www.zrbf.co.zw

The purpose of the ZRBF High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is to avail real IN THIS REPORT time data and information on identified and agreed trigger indicators for Overall Results and Implications 2 the activation of the crisis modifier, performance monitoring, programming Implications and Actions related to Resilience and other decisions for the overall ZRBF adaptive programme management. Programming 4 Information presented in this bulletin is readily available in the HFM Online Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators 5 Database, accessible using this url

Vegetation Condition Index 5 https://197.155.231.242/undp/ZRBF/HFMS/index.php Real-time water levels in major rivers 6 The bulletin contains official information for the month of July 2019 collected Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger from various sources by ZRBF partners and analysed by ZRBF PMU. The High Indicators 6 Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is a product of collaboration between the ZRBF Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update and Partners and other government agencies. For questions and comments regarding Proposed Mitigatory Activities 7 this bulletin, kindly get in touch withVhusomuzi Sithole (vhusomuzi.sithole@ Annex 1: Flood monitoring thresholds for water , or level in selected rivers 11 undp.org) Alfios Mayoyo ([email protected]) Rufael Fassil (rufael. [email protected]).

UNDP , ZRBF Programme Management Unit Arundel Office Park, Block 9, Norfolk Rd, Mt. Pleasant, , Zimbabwe, Phone: +263 4 338836-44 Page 2 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #27 | August 2019

Overall Results and Implications

Summary Classification

Key Highlights

According to the High Frequency Monitoring (HFM) classification, 14 districts (, Bubi, Chiredzi, , , Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mbire, Mudzi, , Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza, and ) were rated “Alert” and four (Beitbridge, Binga, Chiredzi and Nkayi) were in the Alarm stage. The follow- ing indicators were rated “Emergency” during the reporting month of July 2019 were: 1. Cattle Price in Beitbridge, Binga, Bubi, Chiredzi, Insiza, Kariba, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mbire, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane. 2. Common Diarrhoea Reported Cases in Beitbridge, Binga, Chiredzi, Insiza, Kariba, Lupane, Matobo, Mbire, Mud- zi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane 3. Crops pest and Diseases Outbreaks in Mbire 4. Distances to water sources for households in Nyanga 5. FMD Reported Cases in Insiza and Nkayi 6. Goat Price in Beitbridge, Binga, Bubi, Chiredzi, Insiza, Kariba, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mbire, Nkayi, Nyan- ga, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane. 7. Indigenous Chicken Price in Beitbridge, Binga, Bubi, Chiredzi, Insiza, Kariba, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane. 8. Maize Price in Beitbridge, Binga, Bubi, Chiredzi, Insiza, Kariba, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mbire, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane. 9. Pastures Availability in Beitbridge 10. Pearl Millet Price in Beitbridge, Binga, Chiredzi, Insiza, Kariba, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Nkayi, Umzing- wane and Zvishavane. 11. Rapoko Price in Beitbridge, Chiredzi, Kariba, Matobo, Mberengwa, Nyanga, Umzingwane and Zvishavane. 12. Sheep Price in Chiredzi, Mberengwa, Nkayi, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane. 13. Sorghum Price in Beitbridge, Binga, Bubi, Chiredzi, Insiza, Kariba, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane. 14. Vegetation Cover Index in Binga, Bubi, Lupane, Mbire, Mwenezi, Nkayi and Umguza.

Page 3 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #27 | August 2019 Zvishavane

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Umzingwane

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal No data Umguza

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

No data Nyanga

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal No data No data Nkayi

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm

Normal No Data Mwenezi

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Mutoko

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Mudzi

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Mbire

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

No data No data No data No data Mberengwa

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Matobo

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Lupane

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Kariba

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal No data No data No data No data No data Insiza

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Chiredzi

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Alarm Normal Normal Binga

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm

Normal Normal Normal Normal No data No data No data No data No data Bubi

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Beitbridge

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Alarm Alarm Normal Month Jan-19 Apr-19 Oct-18 July 18 July-19 Feb-19 Nov 18 Nov Dec-18 Aug-18 Mar-19 Mar-18 May-19 May-18 Sept-18 June-19 June-18 April-18 Table 1 below summarises these trends in the overall classification of all 18 districts over the last 12 months. over the last of all 18 districts classification in the overall summarises these trends 1 below Table of the 18 districts Overall Classification Page 4 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #27 | August 2019

Implications and Actions related to Resilience Programming • Vegetation Cover Index was categorized under emergency in Binga, Bubi, Lupane, Mbire, Mwenezi, Nkayi and Umguza while Beitbridge, Chiredzi, Insiza, Kariba, Matobo, Mberengwa, Umzingwane and Zvishavane districts were under alarm. Community members should be advised against starting unnec- essary fires and to make efforts to stop veldt fires where possible. Resources permitting, community member should be equipped with fire beaters to help the stop veldt fire.

• Crops and livestock prices were rated under the emergency category in all the 18 ZRBF targeted dis- tricts. However, the high prices reflect inflation and the weakening of the RTGS against the major -cur rencies. Although the prices appear to be high, the prices of livestock and cereal are still lagging behind the inflation rates and the exchange rates of the RTGS $ against major currencies in both the formal and informal market. Farmers are therefore encouraged to form producer groups to enable them to sell collectively and negotiate better prices with buyers. They should also be encouraged to triangulate prices from different buyers to avoid being taken advantage of by unscrupulous buyers.

• Common diarrhea cases were reported in Beitbridge, Binga, Chiredzi, Insiza, Kariba, Lupane, Matobo, Mbire, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane. The consortia partners across the 18 districts are encouraged to partners with the Ministry of Health to carry our rig- orous public health and hygiene promotion campaigns to reduce the prevalence of diarrheal diseases. Diarrhea affected community members should be encouraged to use oral rehydration solution while seeking medical attention from the nearest health centre.

• Seven districts were in the Alarm category for State of water sources up from 5 in the previous month and 9 districts were in the Alert category. Distance to water sources was in the Alert category for 14 out of the 18 districts with households travelling between one and five kilometres for domestic water. The ZRBF consortia and other development agencies should work closely with the affected communi- ties to rehabilitate non-functional boreholes, drilling new boreholes and installing solar pumps on high yielding boreholes where possible to reduce trekking distances and availing more portable water to the communities.

• Pasture availability continued to deteriorate with districts which were in the Alert category last month have moved to Alarm as pastures continue to be depleted. Farmers should be encouraged to destock their non-productive stock and buy stock feeds to sustain their productive stock. They should not wait until their cattle are heavily emaciated or die to sell them but should make effort to plan and fatten the cattle before selling them, to enable them to realize better income from their cattle. Farmers with dry stover should be advised to treat their stover before they feed their cattle to improve the nutrition content of their stover. Urea treatment will boost the crude protein of dry stover from 3% CP to 12% CP and will go a long way in maintaining the body throughout the dry season.

• Livestock diseases were categorised under emergency in 3 districts with Nyanga recording four anthrax cases and Foot and mouth disease (FMD) cases being recorded in Nkayi and Insiza, Newcastle, lumpy skin and heartwater were reported in almost all the districts while Kariba reported 9 cases of theileri- osis. Communities should be advised to vaccinate their livestock against the major killer diseases and to restrict cattle movement where FMD was reported to avoid the spread of the disease. In order to prevent transmission of the diseases to human beings, people should be advised against consuming meat from the livestock dying from these diseases. Page 5 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #27 | August 2019

Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators Vegetation Condition Index

Figure 1: Vegetation Condition Index for July 2019

The Vegetation Condition Index shows deteriorating vegetation condition in all districts culminating in the following classification:

1. Alert (Mudzi, Mutoko and Nyanga)

2. Alarm (Beitbridge, Chiredzi, Insiza, Kariba, Matobo, Mberengwa, Umzingwane and Zvishavane), and

3. Emergency (Bubi, Binga, Lupane, Mbire, Mwenezi, Nkayi and Umguza)

District VCI Vaue Crisis Modifier District VCI Vaue Crisis Modifier Beitbridge 0.28 Alarm Mbire 0.15 Emergency Binga 0.20 Emergency Mudzi 0.61 Alert Bubi 0.18 Emergency Mutoko 0.52 Alert Chiredzi 0.33 Alarm Mwenezi 0.24 Emergency Insiza 0.34 Alarm Nkayi 0.23 Emergency Kariba 0.32 Alarm Nyanga 0.62 Alert Lupane 0.23 Emergency Umguza 0.24 Emergency Matobo 0.28 Alarm Umzingwane 0.32 Alarm Mberengwa 0.36 Alarm Zvishavane 0.29 Alarm Page 6 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #27 | August 2019

Real-time water levels in major rivers

The second macro-indicator, real-time river flow, showed that all the rivers had low flow rates indicating low flooding risk. The classification is based on a scale determined in Annex 1. The rain season has ended across the country and Table 3 show that there was no flooding risk in all the districts.

Average water levels along selected major rivers in Zimbabwe, July 2019. River Site Level Crisis Modifier Category Zambezi 0.63 m Normal Odzi Odzi Gorge 0.43 m Normal Mazowe Mazowe Bridge 0 Normal Musengezi Centenary No data Musengezi Chidodo 1.7 m Normal Save Condo Dam 0.205 m Normal Runde Confluence with Tokwe No data

Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger Indicators • The micro-indicator data from the 17 reported districts reflect conditions in the four broad classes of indicators, biophysical, production and access indicators, were mostly in the Alert/Normal category maintaining the same categories from the past month. • Biophysical indicators were in Emergency category in one district; Beitbridge due to pasture availability which is in Emergency and state of water sources in Alarm. Three (3) districts were in the Alarm category and 13 districts in the Alert category. Pastures are fast depleting and water sources becoming fewer as we reach the peak of the dry season. • Production indicators were in the Alert category for 14 districts up from 13 in the previous month. This is attributed mainly to deteriorating livestock body condition. • Access indicators were in the Alert category for 17 districts up from 15 in the previous month. One district was in the Alarm category. Livestock trekking distance for water is increasing as water sources dry up. • Twelve districts were in the Emergency stage for trade indicators mainly due to the price distortions on the mar- kets. It must be noted that trade indicator thresholds have greatly increased due to the changes in the economic environment hence the system is yet to be upgraded to reflect the realist thresholds. Upgrade on the thresholds will begin in September.

Trigger Indicator summary for July 2019 District Biophysical Indicators Production Indicators Access Indicators Trade Indicators Beitbridge Emergency Normal Alert Emergency Binga Alarm Alert Alert Emergency Bubi Alert Alert Alert Emergency Chiredzi Alarm Alert Alert Emergency Insiza Alert Alert Alert Alarm Kariba Alert Alert Alert Emergency Lupane Alert Normal Alert Alarm Matobo Alert Alert Alert Emergency Mberengwa Alert Alert Alert Emergency Mbire Alert Alert Alert Alarm Mudzi Alert Alert Alert Alert Mutoko Normal Alert Alert Normal Mwenezi Alarm Normal Alert Alert Nkayi Alert Alert Alert Emergency Nyanga Alert Alert Alarm Emergency Umguza Alert Normal Alert Emergency Umzingwane Alert Alert Alert Emergency

Zvishavane Alert Alert Alert Emergency Page 7 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #27 | August 2019

Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update and Proposed Mitigatory Activities

Biophysical Trigger indicators

Biophysical trigger indicator summary for July 2019

Biophysical Indicators District Pastures Availability Rainfall State of Water Sources Beitbridge 1 No data 2 Binga 2 No data 2 Bubi 2 0 2 Chiredzi 2 No data 3 Insiza 2 0 3 Kariba 2 0 3 Lupane 2 0 3 Matobo 2 0 2 Mberengwa 2 0 3 Mbire 3 0 3 Mudzi 2 0 4 Mutoko 3 0 4 Mwenezi 2 No data 3 Nkayi 2 0 2 Nyanga 3 0 3 Umguza 2 0 2 Umzingwane 2 0 2 Zvishavane 2 0 3

• Pasture availability was in Emergency category in Beitbridge, Districts which were in the Alert category last month have moved to Alarm as pastures continue to be depleted. 14 Districts were in the Alarm category and three (3) in the Alert

• Seven (7) districts were in the Alarm category for State of water sources up from five (5) in the previous month, this means that water sources are inadequate as only 30-65% of boreholes are functional. Nine (9) districts were in the Alert category. Only Mudzi and Mu- toko districts reported Normal meaning above 85% of boreholes are functioning Page 8 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #27 | August 2019

Production Trigger indicators

Production trigger indicator summary for July 2019

Production Indicators District Crops Pest Crop Condition Livestock Body Number Reported Cases Reported Cases and Diseases Condition Livestock of Livestock of Waterborne Outbreaks Poverty Deaths Diseases Diseases Beitbridge 3 3 1 10 0 382 Binga No data No data 2 0 2 293 Bubi 3 No data 2 5 5 95 Chiredzi 3 3 2 0 3 1009 Insiza No data No data 2 27 24 110 Kariba 3 3 3 0 35 268 Lupane No data No data 2 0 0 184 Matobo No data No data 2 15 63 153 Mberengwa 3 No data 2 4 30 3 Mbire No data No data 2 0 0 321 Mudzi No data No data 2 0 19 411 Mutoko 3 4 3 0 24 430 Mwenezi 3 3 2 0 0 477 Nkayi 3 No data 2 0 4 264 Nyanga 2 3 2 0 28 470 Umguza 3 No data 2 0 2 371 Umzingwane 3 No data 2 0 17 131 Zvishavane No data 3 2 0 16 390

• was in the Alert category for crop pests and diseases. The rest of the districts were normal as there are no crops in the fields. • Fifteen districts were in the Alert category for livestock body condition, mainly due to inadequate pasture and high livestock trekking distances for water. was in the Alarm category • Livestock poverty deaths were experienced in Beitbridge, Insiza, Bubi and Matobo districts putting them in the Alert category. Insiza recorded the highest with 27 deaths. The rest of the districts re- corded zero deaths. • Three (3) districts; were in the Emergency stage for livestock diseases. Nyanga reported four (4) sus- pected anthrax cases which were awaiting lab confirmation at the time of reporting. Nkayi reported Three (3) FMS cases and a total of 2079 cattle were vaccinated to control the disease. Cattle sales have since been suspended in the district. Insiza also reported two (2) FMD cases in Ward 1. Ten districts were in the Alert stage, Newcastle, lumpy skin and heartwater being reported in almost all the districts. Kariba reported 9 cases of theileriosis. • Sixteen districts were in the Emergency category for water borne diseases. Chiredzi continues to record the highest cases with a total of 1009 up from 865 last month. Included in these cases is one reported case of typhoid. Page 9 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #27 | August 2019

Access Trigger Indicators

Access trigger indicator summary for July 2019

Access Indicators District Distances to Water Number of Meals School Attendance Water for Livestock Sources for Households Trekking Distance Beitbridge 1 2 3 1 Binga 3 2 No data 7 Bubi 2.5 2 4 7 Chiredzi 1.26 2 3 1.93 Insiza 3 3 3 3 Kariba 3 2 4 8 Lupane 3 2 4 3 Matobo 3 2 4 4 Mberengwa 1.71 2 4 2.74 Mbire 2 2 3 5 Mudzi 3 2 4 3 Mutoko 3 2 4 4 Mwenezi 2.07 2 3 3.4 Nkayi No data 2 4 5 Nyanga 5 2 4 5 Umguza 2.5 2 4 5 Umzingwane 3.5 2 4 3 Zvishavane 1.43 2 4 2.35

• Distance to water sources was in the Alert category for 14 out of the 18 districts. Households travel- ling between one and five kilometres for domestic water.

• Seven districts were in the Alarm category for livestock trekking distance with cattle in Kariba trek- king an average of 8 kilometres for water. Nine districts were in the Alert category, water sources are reduced as the dry season continues.

• Seventeen districts where households were eating an average of 2 meals a day, were in the Alert category. Due to increase in prices of food commodities, households have reduced meals to two per day to cope.

• School attendance was in the normal category in most districts except Chiredzi, Beitbridge, Mwen- ezi, Insiza, and Mbire which were in the Alert category. Page 10 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #27 | August 2019

Trade Trigger Indicators

Trade trigger indicator summary for July 2019

Trade Indicators District Cattle Price Goat Price Indigenous Maize Pearl Rapoko Sheep Sorghum Chicken Price Millet Price Price Price Price Price Beitbridge 3000 150 35 25 35 35 170 35 Binga 1200 120 30 25 20 No data 120 20 Bubi 1800 160 25 25 No data No data 200 30 Chiredzi 1604.59 163.32 23.21 26.14 25 31.67 244.23 24.07 Insiza 900 90 12 14 15 17 111 15 Kariba 1800 120 30 35 60 70 200 50 Lupane 600 77 15 16 18 11 130 22 Matobo 700 70 23 24 30 26 134 28 Mberengwa No data 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mbire 1300 100 10 13 No data No data 150 10 Mudzi 250 20 4 4 5 7 36 4 Mutoko 300 25 5 5 6 7 35 5 Mwenezi 345.56 28.36 4.25 4.19 3.89 7.6 45.14 3.71 Nkayi 2500 250 35 20 22 No data 350 22 Nyanga 1500 200 20 15 No data 40 200 35 Umguza 5000 300 50 25 No data No data 500 25 Umzingwane 2000 200 25 25 30 30 250 30 Zvishavane No data 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

• Cattle prices were in the Emergency category in twelve districts as cattle prices continue to rise in RTGs responding to the rates against the USD. Although regarded as emergency in the High Frequen- cy Monitoring System Definitions; these prices are normal given the prevailing economic environ- ment. Some districts have resorted to pegging cattle prices in USD hence the normal categorisation.

• Mudzi Mutoko and Mwenezi districts have pegged their goat prices in USD hence the Alert catego- risation.

The price increases in all the highlighted commodities was mainly due to the weakening of the bond notes against the US dollar and a response to the general increase in prices of goods. Most districts in the normal category have pegged their prices in USD and those with prices below 10 are also in USD. The HFMS System is being upgraded to accommodate the new thresholds which are reflective of the current economic environment. Page 11 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #27 | August 2019

Annex 1: Flood monitoring thresholds for water level in selected rivers

River water flow categorisation

Station River Site Province Maximum Unit Normal Alert Trigger 1 Alarm Emergency number flow/level Trigger 3 Trigger 2 A38 Gwayi Dahlia Mat North 147 m3/s <66.15 66.15 88.2 117.6 B35 Limpopo Beit Bridge Mat South 6 m3/s <2.7 2.7 3.6 4.8 C109 Musengezi Chidodo Mash 7.2 m3/s <3.24 3.24 4.32 5.76 Central C59 Sanyati Copper Midlands 2320 m3/s <1044 1044 1392 1856 Queen C61 Manyame Chinhoyi Mash West 16.5 m3/s <7.425 7.425 9.9 13.2 Bridge C68 Musengezi Centenary Mash 80.7 m3/s <36.315 36.315 48.42 64.56 Central D75 Mazowe Mazowe Mash 577 m3/s <259.65 259.65 346.2 461.6 Bridge Central E130 Odzi Odzi Gorge Manicaland 383 m3/s <172.35 172.35 229.8 306.4 E21 Save Condo Dam Manicaland 2853 m3/s <1283.85 1283.85 1711.8 2282.4 E74 Runde Confluence 2021 m3/s <909.45 909.45 1212.6 1616.8 with Tokwe ZGP25 Zambezi Victoria Mat North 9352 m3/s <4208.4 4208.4 5611.2 7481.6 Falls Crisis modifier range < 45% 45.1%