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United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Grain: World Markets and Trade December 2018 China’s Exports of Corn-based Products Rise Corn-based Product Exports (Oct-Sep; unconverted product weight) 5 4 Million Tons 3 2 1 0 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18* * 2017/18 China's trade data (in Chinese) do not list exports of corn-based products. Thus, importers' data are used in lieu of China's exports. Corn Starch Residue of starch Sweeteners Citric acid Lysine & Glutamic acid China and the United States have been top exporters of corn-based products1. In 2017/18 China’s exports of these products have grown nearing 5 million tons, roughly equivalent to 10-15 million tons of unprocessed grain corn. South Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, and the European Union have been top destinations for these products. While China is not competitive on corn exports due to higher domestic prices relative to world levels, it appears that the country is competitive in the corn-based product market. China already has ample wet milling (so-called “deep processing”) capacity established years ago when the government singled out corn processing as a key industry and stressed developments of value-added supply chains. Similarly, there have been support programs that include subsidies for purchasing corn aimed at industrial processors and support in the form of refunds of value-added tax for exports of corn-based products. Moreover, because of limited competition in global trade of corn-based products, China benefits from proximity to its key markets. For the United States, corn-based products are exported mainly to Canada, Mexico, and other countries in the Western Hemisphere. 1. Lysine and glutamic acid includes HS 292241 and 292242; Citric acid are HS 291814 and 291815; Sweeteners include HS170230, 170260, and 170290; Residue of starch is HS 230310; and Corn starch is HS 110812. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA For email subscription, click here to register: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new Table of Contents World Markets and Trade: Commodities and Data WHEAT ........................................................................................................ 3 RICE ............................................................................................................ 9 COARSE GRAINS ..................................................................................... 13 ENDNOTES ............................................................................................... 16 DATA TABLES ........................................................................................... 19 The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m. To download the tables in the publication, go to Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): scroll down to Reports, and Click the plus sign [+] next to Grains. FAS Reports and Databases: Current World Markets and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports Archives World Markets and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online) Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports) Export Sales Report Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports) Other USDA Reports: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Economic Research Service National Agricultural Statistics Service Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 December 2018 Office of Global Analysis WHEAT OVERVIEW FOR 2018/19 Global wheat production is nearly unchanged this month as larger crops for Canada and Mexico mostly offset a reduction for Australia. Global import demand is little changed. Higher exports for Russia partially offset cuts to Australia and the European Union. The U.S. season-average farm price is raised $0.05 to $5.15 per bushel. WHEAT PRICES Domestic: Wheat prices were up at the end of November due to improved export demand and unfavorable weather in some exporting countries. Hard Red Winter (HRW) gained $5/ton to $239 due to a slow pace of new-crop plantings, while Soft Red Winter (SRW) rose $9/ton to $223 driven by confirmation of sales to Egypt. Soft White Winter (SWW) was little changed at $237/ton. Hard Red Spring (HRS) gained $7/ton to $264. U.S. Daily FOB Export Bids 340 320 300 280 260 $/MT $/MT 240 220 200 180 160 HRWHRW SRWSRW SWWSWW HRSHRS Source: IGC Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 3 December 2018 Office of Global Analysis Global: Exporter quotes were mixed in November, but mostly rangebound. Argentine, Australian, and Black Sea prices were down, while Canadian, EU, and U.S. quotes were up. Argentina has begun harvesting what is estimated to be a record crop, pushing prices lower. Australia’s quotes have come down slightly with harvest progressing, but its export prices remain uncompetitive as the crop is significantly reduced by drought. U.S. and Canadian prices are up on strong international demand. Black Sea, EU, Argentine, and U.S. quotes are currently within a very narrow range. Month Ending Argentina Australia Black Sea Canada EU US November $219 $315 $226 $269 $231 $239 October $225 $322 $228 $265 $228 $235 September $230 $320 $227 $263 $237 $237 Month Ending Prices for Major Wheat Exporters Source: IGC Note on FOB prices: Argentina- 12.0%, up river; Australia- average of APW; Fremantle, Newcastle, and Port Adelaide; Black Sea- milling; Canada- CWRS 13.5% St. Lawrence; EU- France grade 1, Rouen; US- HRW 11.5% Gulf International Daily FOB Export Bids 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 $/ton 200 180 160 140 Argentina Australia Black Sea milling Canada EU United States Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 4 December 2018 Office of Global Analysis MARKET FEATURES By-Class Summaries: Hard Red Winter Hard Red Winter (HRW) is the largest class of U.S. wheat, representing about 40 percent of production and 35 percent of exports. Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas are the major producing states of this class. It is used to make general-purpose flour for many products including bread, rolls, and flat breads. As a winter wheat, it is planted in the autumn, goes dormant during the winter months, emerges from dormancy in spring, and is harvested in early summer. Mexico is normally the largest buyer of this class, but it is also exported to other destinations in Latin America, Asia, and Africa. 2018/19 HRW Exports Behind Pace, but Expected to Improve The pace of HRW exports so far has U.S. HRW Total Commitments as a been below average and will need to Percentage of Final Export Estimate* accelerate to reach the current export 120% forecast of 8.7 million tons (320 million bushels). As of November 29, HRW total 100% commitments (accumulated exports plus 80% outstanding sales) are down one-third compared to last year. Commitments to 60% Mexico and Nigeria in particular are down from last year, but have begun to improve 40% 13/14 14/15 in recent weeks. This class has been the 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 most heavily impacted by international 20% competition this year as Russia’s robust pace of exports has left little demand for 0% HRW outside of typical customers. However, Russia’s export pace is expected to slow in the coming months as exportable supplies taper off. This would *Note: At the end of the year, total commitments as reported in USDA’s Export Sales Reporting do not add up to 100 provide an opportunity for HRW exports as percent of total exports due to differences in data sources, this class of wheat fits a similar demand sales that are delayed to the next marketing year, and inclusion of flour and products. profile when it is priced competitively. Average Monthly FOB Spread HRW Closing the Price Gap with Russia Between Russia and U.S. HRW** Russia’s prices were very low at the time 50 of its winter wheat harvest in July and 40 August. At that time, Russia’s supplies 30 were plentiful based on large carryin and $/MT 20 the third-largest crop on record. Russia’s 2017/18 price advantage has greatly diminished 10 2018/19 since then as those supplies have become - tighter amid an frenetic pace of exports. This improving price competitiveness for **Note: This is calculated based on the monthly U.S. wheat, combined with the recent pick- averages of IGC quotes - this compares U.S. 11.5% up in export sales, is an indicator of a protein HRW at the Gulf with 12.5% protein Black Sea changing competitive dynamic. Milling wheat. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 5 December 2018 Office of Global Analysis By-Class Summaries: Hard Red Spring Hard Red Spring (HRS) is the second largest class of U.S. wheat, typically accounting for about 25 percent of production. It is a high-protein, high-gluten wheat used in making rolls, bagels, and pizza crust. HRS is also used to improve protein content in flour blends. North Dakota is the leading producer of this class of wheat. HRS is a spring wheat variety, which means that it is planted during the spring and harvested in late summer. HRS is sought after for its quality characteristics and generally commands a price premium over other classes. Typically, the majority of HRS exports go to Asian markets such as the Philippines, Japan, and China. HRS Exports Expected to Rebound in 2018/19 U.S. HRS exports are expected to reach a robust 8.2 million tons HRS Exports To Date* (300 million bushels), up 31 9.0 percent from last year and above 8.0 the 5-year average. Total 7.0 commitments of this class as of November 29 are up 6 percent 6.0 from last year. This year, HRS 5.0 exports to China have dropped Million Tons off completely based on the 4.0 retaliatory duties placed on U.S. 3.0 wheat. Exports to Latin America 2.0 are down from last year based on strong competition from 1.0 Canada in several key markets.
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