Thought Leadership Evolving : The future shape of the capital

Spring 2012

In association with 08449 02 03 04 gva.co.uk 1. Introduction

London is evolving This change will be driven by a analyses the most important factors that combination of factors, including major will influence prospects for development rapidly. The next decade new infrastructure, relentless long-term and regeneration for each of London’s will see continued major market trends and emergent market boroughs and how they may work in needs, and the impact of national and combination to produce places to watch. property market, physical city-wide policies, amongst others. It is hoped that the findings will assist and socio-economic In an attempt to establish a clearer the private sector in making important change in many parts understanding of where the greatest decisions about where to invest, while change is likely to take place, Centre helping the public sector respond to these of the capital. for Cities and GVA have collaborated pressures, and to address those areas that to research the impact of the most need continuing support. significant of these factors across London. The essential question for local government, investors and developers is which parts of London will change the most over the next 10 years, and what will influence that change? This report seeks to answer that question. It investigates investment potential across different parts of London, in residential and in different commercial markets. It

02 I GVA 10 Stratton Street London W1J 8JR Evolving London – The future shape of the capital Spring 2012 2. Approach and method

3. Market preferences The prevailing property market trends do not always coincide with public policy preferences. Indicators of market strength include growth over the past decade in households, dwellings, employment, and office floorspace stock. They also include current demand indicators such as average house prices, housing affordability, office and retail rents and quantity of commercial floorspace. Prevailing market trends are discussed in Section 3. The areas of London where these drivers combine, and the public and private sector work towards shared objectives, will be the places most likely to see significant change over the next 10 years. Methodology Centre for Cities has devised a methodology - the Future London Development Index – as an analytical tool for assessing the relative development prospects across the 33 London authorities. The Index uses 29 weighted indicators, covering the three principal drivers highlighted above, to assess likely future development activity in each London borough. Full details of the methodology used can be found in an online methodological note. Approach and public policy designations. The Index assesses: These influence future development This research report looks by establishing areas where it will be a) Potential future commercial demand welcomed and express preferences about and opportunity - indicators profiling at three principal drivers of how and where future need should be where office occupiers and retailers are property market change fulfilled. Designations are primarily based most likely to want to locate and where on land availability but not necessarily developers will have the opportunity and development. reflecting market demand. to build. 1. Public policy 2. Infrastructure investment b) Potential future residential demand and opportunity - profiling where Policy levers include factors that have There is a series of recently completed, people will want to live, where they will the potential to attract development forthcoming or proposed large-scale be able to afford to live and where to particular places: consistency of transport projects with varying timescales developers will have the opportunity local political priorities and approaches and levels of certainty: , the to build. to growth, the role of development upgrade, new overground incentives such as the New Homes connections, the link to This data analysis has been enriched Bonus, business rate retention, Enterprise , the potential Northern through insights and intelligence Zones, the Outer London and Mayor’s Line extension to , new river gathered from an extensive literature Regeneration Funds. Policy influences are crossings – both proposed and confirmed review, a policy round table and interviews discussed in Section 4. in East London, and proposals for new with senior public and private sector London figures. Our analysis also includes factors that airport capacity will help shift the pace influence public policy such as projected of change in many parts of the capital. growth in households or employment1 Infrastructure influences are discussed in Section 4.

10 Stratton Street London W1J 8JR GVA I 03 3. Current development trends

This section reviews the trends in the current London property market, and how they vary across different sectors and areas of the city. The review is restricted to sectoral trends that are likely to affect major development investment on a scale that has the potential to significantly change areas of London. Residential market Although the highest house prices and levels of market demand are in Central and West London, the largest areas of development land are in East London. The allocates around a quarter of new homes to Greenwich, Newham and Tower Hamlets.2 More development land is available where the market has traditionally been weaker, where infrastructure is most limited and where enabling costs constrain financial viability.3 For example, the boroughs of Barking & Dagenham and Newham have the largest supply of development land, but also some of the lowest average house prices. In a period of continuing economic uncertainty, investors and developers will broadly favour the areas of Central and West London with the greatest demand and highest long-term values.4 Focused public policy and investment will be needed to change this pattern Office market Our research suggests that over the next significantly over the next ten years. Places ten years the strongest growth in office such as Stratford or the Royal Docks, with Demand for London office space, jobs by area will be in the City of London, good transport links and strategies to although affected by global economic Westminster, Tower Hamlets and Islington. attract businesses, can be expected to uncertainty, has remained resilient. Increasing foreign investment in large- also see further residential development Vacancy rates in the West End, the City scale office development may reinforce as part of their changing roles. On the and Docklands have fallen from their established markets6 and expansion is other hand, large developments such peak in 2009 and prime rents continue therefore likely on the central fringes in as Barking Riverside in Barking and to rise.5 places such as Farringdon. Dagenham will find it more difficult to make significant progress over the next decade. Vacancy rates in the West End, the City and Docklands have fallen from their peak in 2009 and prime rents continue to rise.

04 I GVA 10 Stratton Street London W1J 8JR Evolving London – The future shape of the capital Spring 2012

However, demand has been partly driven Retail and leisure market major investments in suggest by emerging sectors with, for example, large, highly accessible centres will remain the Technology, Media and Telecoms While the buoyant retail desirable to investors, possibly at the sector responsible for over 20% of central market continues to defy wider London expense of planned investment in London activity in 2011, up 50% on 2010. and national trends, falling demand has smaller, outer London town centres. These companies tend to have more resulted in higher vacancy rates and lower More distinctive local or niche retail, as flexible accommodation and locational rents in secondary retail centres.8 The found in places such as Marylebone High requirements and therefore are more likely growth in online retailing and significant Street or Spitalfields, are likely to become to move to fringe or new locations. competition from major retail destinations more popular as consumers seek are combining to create unprecedented alternative experiences. In contrast, prospects for major new office pressure on small centres and high streets development in many locations outside across the capital. Central London are likely to decline, with some established centres becoming Major centres such as Westfield’s more marginal.7 However, some outer developments at White City and Stratford London locations have the potential are attracting higher-than-expected to become stabilised as new office footfall and sales levels. Westfield and locations, for example White City. Hammerson’s reported plans to make

10 Stratton Street London W1J 8JR GVA I 05 4. Policy influences on future development

introduced in 2011, will see a significant reduction in public funding for new residential development until at least 2015. The government’s aim to accelerate the release of public sector land should help deliver more housing. To date government departments have announced little that is new, but the disposal of large scale London Development Agency land holdings at the Royal Docks for example has generated significant market interest. Although not supported by all London boroughs a greater opportunity for the re-use of obsolete office buildings will emerge if proposals are enacted to allow change of use from commercial to residential without the need for planning permission (where the conversion does not entail change to the external appearance). London’s secondary town centres and local centres with good transport connections are most likely to see change as a result.19 The government is introducing two new Demographic and policy likely to particularly increase for one and policy measures that could incentivise two bedroom properties. However, the local authorities in London to allow factors will have a spatial remaining 30 percent of households development. In the face of funding cuts, impact on development will require a continuing supply of sources of additional revenue will be across London over the family housing. increasingly important to local authorities. Government reforms are predicted to The New Homes Bonus (NHB) is designed next 10 years. make privately rented homes in large to encourage more residential areas of London, including almost the development by giving councils a fixed More people living entirety of central London boroughs such sum for each house built or brought back in London as Camden, Islington and Kensington into use in that area. In 2012/13 London and Chelsea, unaffordable to people on boroughs will receive an average £2.7 London continues to grow. In 2010 the housing benefit.15 This may result in more million additional income from the NHB.20 population was 7.8 million9 and it is set to people moving from Central London When the incentive kicks in next year it will reach 8.6 million by 2022.10 In recent years to more affordable boroughs like increase incrementally from 2009-15 and this growth has been driven by natural Newham, increasing rents and continue in perpetuity. change, with at least 50,000 more births reducing housing supply.16 than deaths each year from 2003-10.11 To encourage new commercial development the government also It is estimated that London needs What will influence proposes that councils be allowed to nearly 35,000 new homes each year to developers? keep a proportion of any increase in clear the existing backlog and address revenue from business rates. On current pressures from future growth.12 These A reduction of public funding means the trends most London boroughs would stand numbers are unlikely to be delivered, so pace of development is likely to slow, to benefit financially. The big winners, pressure on house prices and rents will with developers reassessing the viability 17 however, could be places with existing continue to increase. of schemes with planning permission. In previous years public funding for high demand such as Westminster, City of Declining household size also increases affordable housing has underpinned the London, Camden and Tower Hamlets. This the demand for housing, a trend viability of many mixed-tenure schemes policy is therefore likely to reinforce rather 13 expected to continue. Between in more marginal locations18 and has than change the location of established 21 2008 and 2023 over 70 percent of been an important source of finance commercial property markets in London. household growth is predicted to be in for the largest regeneration projects. The 14 one person households. Demand is new affordable housing funding model,

06 I GVA 10 Stratton Street London W1J 8JR Evolving London – The future shape of the capital Spring 2012 5. Prospects for change

Future large-scale Map 1 combines relative change in future values in London23 and Crossrail demand and opportunity for office and investment will reinforce these markets, development is most retail development potential over the next providing rapid new links both to the City likely in areas with well- ten years, at borough level. Full data is in of London and to . the Future London Development Index – However these boroughs have a limited established growth see online methodological note. supply of sites24 and development is trajectories, where there Map 2 combines relative change in likely to be pushed to their fringes. Major is strong underlying future demand and opportunity for new residential development will continue housing potential over the next ten years, to push the boundaries of the Central demand, where new at borough level. Full data is in the Future London residential market further infrastructure is proposed London Development Index – see online outwards, with the south bank of the methodological note. Thames in Wandsworth and Southwark, and where there is a from Vauxhall to Bermondsey, in particular supply of appropriate sites Central London likely to see significant change. and the political will to Living in Central London The fringes of the Central London market 22 are also likely to continue pushing north advance them. The Central London residential market and east. Camden, Islington and Hackney has been supported by the international This section assesses which boroughs have high household growth projections status and strength of the London are most likely to see significant change over the next 20 years.25 Continuing economy and by demand for housing through development over the next development at King’s Cross and generated in part by London’s attraction 10 years and what will need to happen forthcoming redevelopment at Euston for to overseas investors. for them to realise their development the High Speed 2 link will increase pressure potential. The City of Westminster and Kensington to replace industrial and service uses with and Chelsea have the highest residential residential and to bring forward housing

10 Stratton Street London W1J 8JR GVA I 07 Map 1

Centre of Cities 2012. Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2012. See online methodological note for data sources.

Map 2

Centre of Cities 2012. Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2012. See online methodological note for data sources.

08 I GVA 10 Stratton Street London W1J 8JR Evolving London – The future shape of the capital Spring 2012

End still has an international market and appeals to retailers targeting customers at the top end of the market. Continued investment in the most expensive locations is likely, with retail expansion focused around the fringes of the core retail zone at Oxford Street and Bond Street. Sites around Tottenham Court Road are likely to prove attractive as Crossrail opens up new sites as well as improving accessibility. West London Living in West London Residential values are generally high in West London, due to good access to employment in both Central London and beyond the M25 and the expectation of Crossrail and High Speed 2 are likely to increase prices further. West London is therefore likely to see substantial change over the next 10 years, especially in Hammersmith & Fulham where there are a number of significant sites, including Earl’s Court and White City. These areas are well-connected with established nearby residential markets and new retail and office development also planned. The new public transport interchange estate renewal. Land supply is likely Office development is likely around planned for Old Oak Common, although to be the principal constraint on railway stations. Office uses at not due for completion until 2026, is likely residential growth within and close to King’s Cross will be anchored by to draw developer interest in advance. central London.26 Camden Council’s new administrative The borough will be encouraged to headquarters, with interest from media pursue its housing programme by the Working in Central London and digital companies. Renovation benefits that will accrue from the New 29 London’s office market operates on a of and its Homes Bonus. global scale in Westminster, the City surroundings is likely to encourage Hammersmith & Fulham’s household of London, Camden (the south of the further office growth in a location that growth is predicted to be relatively borough) and Tower Hamlets at Canary is already home to international low,30 but demand will be generated Wharf. The relatively modest pace of corporate occupiers. by the wider West London market and new office development from 2000-2010 The large-scale, mixed-use development the capital’s overall household growth. means that supply and demand are planned at Battersea- would Hammersmith & Fulham therefore has generally well balanced in these places27 represent a step change for office the potential to play a much greater and they are very likely to continue to space in Wandsworth.28 The new US role in meeting housing demand in lead office development in London over Embassy should boost potential office West London. the next 10 years. development. However site preparation Working in West improvements, in the form of and infrastructure costs are substantial Crossrail, Thameslink and overground rail, and the potential of the area’s proximity There is a significant office market in the will provide much needed extra transport to central London will only be realised outer West London boroughs, centred capacity to help central locations if the proposed Northern Line extension on the Thames Valley/M4 corridor with maintain their accessibility. Crossrail will can be funded. business parks at Stockley Park, Bedfont Lakes, Chiswick Park and elsewhere. reinforce the role of the City and Canary Shopping in Central London Wharf and allow Tottenham Court The long-term attractiveness of these Road and St Giles to develop as office West End retail is now facing competition locations will continue to be driven by a locations. Crossrail could also boost from new, large-scale shopping well established and large labour market Paddington’s established credentials as destinations including Westfield White and excellent motorway and airport an office location. City, Westfield Stratford and One New access, unless Heathrow is downgraded Change in the City. However the West in favour of a new airport in East London.

10 Stratton Street London W1J 8JR GVA I 09 Hammersmith & Fulham, on the fringe require public sector support if values and of East London and , of the central boroughs, has seen rising viability are to improve over time in parts the Docks have seen recent hotel and business rates over the past decade31 of North London. residential developments. A Crossrail driven by an increasing office role, station, a new cable car link to Greenwich particularly around Hammersmith town East London and a proposed new road tunnel at centre. The White City area, with a Silvertown will all improve connectivity and Living in East London significant supply of development land, residential appeal. could reinforce this role as an important East London has traditionally been Given the scale of change anticipated office location. In the longer term, Old challenging for residential developers. As for large areas of East London, developers Oak Common’s transport connections a typical example, the London Borough are being presented with lots of choice could also draw business to locations of Newham has very high land availability and opportunity. The wider impact from closely linked to White City. and substantial housing targets, but the London Olympics is not yet clear, relatively low residential values, low historic but the places with the best transport North London rates of growth and a relatively high connections will be in the best position number of unstarted sites with planning Living in North London to succeed and attract housing over the permission.34 If its full development next 10 years. This means, however, that North London has a wide variety of potential is to be realised, it needs to other locations without the same attributes residential markets with a diversity of develop a new role in the London market. will take longer to develop, for example values. As well as development pushing Signs exist that it has the potential to Barking Riverside. north from the centre of London, and the achieve this on the back of the Olympics strong markets in places such as Muswell and development at the Royal Docks. Working in East London Hill, Hampstead and Highgate, demand As the focus of the UK’s largest Newham’s aim is to attract significant has been strong in areas to the North West regeneration project, Newham has new business activity in the wake of the including Barnet, driven by good public significant potential to capitalise on the Olympics to Stratford and to the transport connections. profile, transport and place-making Royal Docks. Larger potential schemes include boost provided by the Olympics and by New infrastructure and public realm Haringey Heartlands, White Hart Lane redevelopment at Stratford. Substantial around Stratford town centre and the and Wards Corner / Seven Sisters public subsidy for site preparation, Olympic Park will attract office demand (Haringey) – with an opportunity for transport and public realm has paved the and development activity in the medium- residential led mixed-use development. way for new residential neighbourhoods. term. The Royal Docks are the subject of Although housing is relatively affordable These advantages, combined with a concerted inward investment strategy. in the areas of Enfield and Haringey, the international visibility and caché of The designated Enterprise Zone, although household growth is projected to be lower the Olympics location, means that a only part of the solution,35 will provide than in many other parts of London over new housing market could be extra attraction to business. The Royal the coming decade.33 established here. Docks has the potential to develop as a The A1010 corridor, which runs from the The Royal Docks is also the subject business location in the medium-term, M25 through Ponders End, Edmonton, of private sector interest in housing but this development is likely to follow Tottenham and Stamford Hill, has more development, albeit as part of mixed- residential development and further than 60 sites32 with the potential for use developments, especially on the major investment in infrastructure and the redevelopment. Western Docks - Silvertown Quays and environment. Minoco Wharf. Anchored by expansion of Over the next 10 years, private sector the Excel Exhibition Centre, the University development is likely to continue to

010 I GVA 10 Stratton Street London W1J 8JR Evolving London – The future shape of the capital Spring 2012

South London of outdated post-war office buildings. competition from the larger shopping These have historically been occupied centres, making the delivery of large Living in South London by the public sector and by corporate scale retail-led projects more difficult in occupiers, but large companies have the short-medium term. As well as the likely extension of the moved out and annual take-up is currently Central London residential market along low. The decline in demand reflects wider Reflections the south bank of the Thames, locations in commercial office market conditions as (Convoy’s Wharf, Deptford) and Where public policy and incentives well as the nature of the stock in Croydon, Greenwich (town centre and the Peninsula) combine with strategic investment, market but the overall office capacity in the town are predicted to benefit from improved preferences can change and major centre needs to be reduced to become transport via the East London Line as well development take place. In summary, the sustainable. A number of the buildings as connections to analysis outlined in this section indicates are being renovated and upgraded, but Canary Wharf. In particular Deptford and that the boroughs to watch for major proposals for new office development are New Cross have good accessibility to the property market activity and change over generally part of mixed-use schemes. centre and are among the few remaining the next 10 years are: locations close to Canary Wharf and the Reviving the office market in • Camden City that have yet to see major investment Croydon is likely to depend on and market uplift. successful improvement of the town • Croydon centre public realm and improving it Further south, Croydon has substantial • Hackney as a shopping destination. housing targets and a strong borough • Hammersmith & Fulham commitment to growth.36 Public transport Shopping in South London is very good, with rapid access to the • Haringey West End, City and Canary Wharf, and the Croydon is one of the largest South 38 • Islington borough has a strategic commitment to London retail centres. Other important centres at Kingston-upon-Thames and more residential development in the town • Lewisham centre.37 There are significant challenges Richmond-upon-Thames attract shoppers • Newham to overcome to change the town’s image from beyond their borough. and to make it more attractive as a place Croydon’s status as an important shopping • Southwark to live. Key to this will be the regeneration centre would be enhanced by recent • Tower Hamlets of the town centre and improvement of proposed investments. This market its shopping offer. interest reflects the size and spending Working in South London power of Croydon’s catchment and its general connectivity. The realisation of Business rate levels, reflecting underlying this potential would not only strengthen rents, have been falling in South London the town as a shopping destination, but centres such as Bromley and Croydon. should drive wider regeneration. Croydon, which is the largest commercial Ambitions for redevelopment in smaller market in South London, has a large stock centres will suffer from increasing

10 Stratton Street London W1J 8JR GVA I 011 7. Places to watch

Enfield M1 M11 Barnet Tottenham Harrow Haringey Waltham Redbridge Forest

Islington Havering Brent M40 A40 Hackney Park Royal & Camden Barking & Old Oak Common Dagenham Hillingdon Newham Tower Royal Docks Ealing Kensington City & ChelseWeWestminsterstminster Hamlets Hammersmith White City & Fulham M4 a Southwark

Hounslow Greenwich Bexley Richmond Deptford Richmond Wandsworth Creek Lambeth Lewisham

M3 Merton

Kingston Croydon Bromley

Sutton Croydon Central Activities Zone

Boroughs of Change

Centre of Cities 2012. Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2012. See online methodological note for data sources. Places to Watch

This section looks in more 1: Park Royal/Old Oak Commercial detail at a selection of Common - Ealing, development illustrative case studies, Brent and Hammersmith Growth advantages mainly within those & Fulham Public transport links with Central boroughs predicted to Park Royal/Old Oak Common is a large London are already good, particularly experience the most area in West London where proposed by Underground. A new Crossrail new infrastructure investment could be station and the HS2 station at Old Oak change. The case studies a principal driver of market change. It Common has the potential to raise the are not an exhaustive list straddles three boroughs - Ealing, Brent profile of Park Royal and the wider area and Hammersmith & Fulham, but much as a hub for service businesses or for of places where change of the area lies within Hammersmith & company headquarters. will occur, but a selection Fulham. The London Plan identifies this The provision of new infrastructure will drive of areas that our analysis as an Opportunity Area. The proposed up property values, which will improve the interchange at Old Oak Common with viability of major commercial and mixed- indicates will be of Crossrail and High Speed 2 (HS2) is likely use developments and have a knock-on to create the opportunity to release effect on the residential market. particular interest to the substantial new commercial and market over the next 10 residential potential. The highest profile commercial development is the redevelopment of the years. The reviews below Park Royal is already an important former Guinness Brewery site, providing examine this potential, industrial location and has Strategic 29,030 sq m of B1 office space,41 partially Industrial Location status in the London occupied by Diageo. The scheme was the principal drivers and Plan. 26.8% of jobs located here are originally designed as the second biggest in manufacturing and construction, office park redevelopment in Europe, but the main issues to be 39 far above London average. It is likely to require the impetus of HS2 to addressed to achieve full accommodates 2,000 businesses achieve its full potential. 42 market and economic employing around 40,000 people.40 potential.

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Centre for Cities interviews Evolving London – The future shape of the capital Spring 2012

A407

A404

A404

A404

M1 M11 A400

0

M40 A40 Park Royal & A219 Old Oak Common Willesden Junction M4 Park Royal & Old Oak Common

M3 Park Royal A40 North Acton

A400 0

0

A400

A4000

Centre for Cities 2012. Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright West and database right 2012. Acton © Crown copyright and database rights 2012 Ordnance Survey

Growth barriers Residential development Significant factors Current office values, although relatively Growth potential and barriers influencing development strong for outer London, are not generally sufficient to support speculative The area around Park Royal and Old Oak • Higher than average residential values development. Both Brent and Ealing have Common is not currently seen as a prime and office rents in the vicinity indicate seen below London average employment location for residential development. that private sector investment can be and business rate growth over the past However, the Opportunity Area Planning made viable in the area. However, decade. This context demonstrates the Framework for the area proposes public sector intervention will be substantial nature of the change needed increasing housing targets from the 1500 required to address high capital costs if Old Oak Common/Park Royal is to homes suggested by The London Plan to associated with infrastructure provision, achieve higher levels of office growth. 3600 homes. 46 remediation and land assembly. 47 Although the area is surrounded by Ealing, Brent and Hammersmith & Fulham • The new public transport interchange Underground and rail stations, internal all have examples elsewhere of relatively at Old Oak Common has the potential accessibility is a problem. Sites at the high value areas, driven by quality of to transform the area as a business heart of Old Oak Common/Park Royal are stock, access to good quality shopping, and residential location. However, the some distance from stations, and both community facilities and green spaces HS2 station is not scheduled to open bus services and cycling infrastructure coupled with strong public transport links. until 2026, so change will not happen are poor. As a result more than a half of immediately. However the impetus A number of sites in Old Oak Common/ employees drive to work. 43 Park Royal has behind this will start to encourage Park Royal have the potential to support a relatively low grade environment related investment over the next 10 years. residential development, but any to the industrial/ commercial nature residential development will need to be • Overcoming the image of a largely of much of the land use there, which supported by significant investment in industrial location is the main challenge impacts upon perception of the area. 44 shops, public spaces and community for Old Oak Common/Park Royal. As part of the process of shifting infrastructure. While the new transport New residential development will only perceptions of Old Oak Common/ interchange at Old Oak Common take place on a large scale when the Park Royal, Ealing and Brent have will provide a major boost to future environment and local infrastructure is both released industrial land to allow development, large scale residential improved and sites are made available. 45 mixed-use development. Change development will require image • The location of this area straddling of use will also be required for the key improvements along with better three boroughs means that close cross- sites in Hammersmith & Fulham to take internal connections. borough collaboration will be essential advantage of the mixed-use potential to encourage private sector investment of Network Rail-owned land next to the on the scale required. planned HS2 station.

10 Stratton Street London W1J 8JR GVA I 013

A40

A40 A219

Latimer Road

M1 M41 M11

White City

M40 A40

White City White City M4 Wood Lane

M3

Shepherd’s A219

Bush Market A3220

A4020

Shepherd’s

A219 Bush

Centre for Cities 2012. Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright A219 A3220 and database right 2012. © Crown copyright and database rights 2012 Ordnance Survey

A219

A402 2: White City, Commercial in White City. This would generate new demand for commercial properties in Hammersmith & Fulham Development White City East and potentially on the White City is located in Hammersmith Growth advantages Television Centre site, if the BBC moves & Fulham. It includes a number of high out of that particular building in 2015 Hammersmith & Fulham ranks relatively 51 profile sites and developments: the as planned. high for both potential future commercial Westfield shopping centre, BBC Television Plans are in place for the site immediately opportunity and demand on the Future Centre and Media Village, Queens Park to the north of Westfield for housing London Development Index. This reflects Rangers FC’s Loftus Road ground, the and for an expansion to the shopping strong business rate growth over the past Imperial Collegew site and the White centre. Delivery will require increased decade and relatively high prime retail City Estate. transport network capacity and improved and office rents. Political stability in the connections to the A40.52 The area is well connected to central borough is combined with a relatively London, served by one overground and high rate of approval on major planning Growth barriers four Underground stations. It is also a applications and a pro-development gateway area for road access to Central reputation. White City shares most of the Office stock in the area is currently quite London, bordered on two sides by the A40 borough’s strengths, but has many issues limited in volume, and establishing the and dual carriageways. to address including social deprivation, area as a new business location will lack of housing choice and quality, require a market shift. The vision for regeneration of the area and the need to fully include the local seeks to capitalise on the presence of Even though rail and road links are good, community in regeneration plans. the BBC to create a location for media there is high peak hour congestion on 53 and creative businesses. White City The new Imperial College site north of the surrounding main roads. This problem East, a former dairy and warehousing Westway has already received planning is recognised by 54 site in the north-east of the area, has consents and will host a centre for which is planning improvements, but significant potential to accommodate bio-science and medical research.49 given that major capacity changes a large scale mixed-use development. are unlikely, this could prove a principal The White City East site can 55 Housing-led mixed-use developments restriction on future development. The accommodate up to 400,000 sq m of and refurbishment schemes are already presence of large land holdings also limits commercial floorspace between Wood planned across the area with a central the opportunities to remodel the road Lane and the West Cross Route. Removal 56 ambition being to help address socio- network. of its Strategic Industrial Land designation economic deprivation in the surrounding has stimulated developer interest in Despite fragmented land ownership, communities by providing housing and the site and will help facilitate planning land assembly is not expected to create employment opportunities for residents, as 50 barriers to development as the majority 48 permission for a mix of uses. well as accommodating new residents. of owners have agreed to work together The BBC brand has the potential to draw to bring the regeneration of the media and creative businesses to locate area forward.57

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Residential development lines all create barriers to local movement. and environmental challenges. The Although Westfield has improved the area includes some of the most deprived Growth potential public realm to the south of the area, neighbourhoods in London, with above sites further north still present a hostile average unemployment and 65 percent Hammersmith & Fulham ranks high pedestrian environment. of the population living in neighbourhoods on future residential development within the 10 percent most deprived in opportunity, reflecting a significant Significant factors London.59 However, it is well linked to number of housing developments Central London with particularly good already in the pipeline. A relatively pro- influencing development Underground connections. development council, a high approval Even though both residential and rate for major planning applications and With the decline of manufacturing commercial development potential in the relatively high growth in dwellings over the industries, more sites around Tottenham borough is strong, some issues need to be past decade all combine to make future Hale are becoming available for addressed if the area’s full potential is to residential developments more likely. redevelopment. The speed at which be realised: this regeneration takes place will be High property values would attract • Transport improvements will be needed determined by the ability of the public interest from developers if sites become to tackle congestion. However, the sector to intervene to counter low values, available. A significant amount of land is limited potential to increase capacity which currently prevent speculative potentially available for housing at White will require new development to use development. The Mayor’s Regeneration City East. Refurbishment of the White City creative solutions. These should include Fund will provide at least £40 million for Estate would open up new opportunities, improvements to the pedestrian regeneration of the area in the wake but although residents would in principle environment to help make the area of the August 2011 riots, assisting the be allowed to relocate to White City East, more accessible and welcoming. regeneration process.60 this process would be voluntary and no Commercial A significant amount of land is potentially development available for housing at White City East. Growth advantages Refurbishment of the White City Estate would Demand for commercial space in open up new opportunities Haringey is relatively low. Commercial development potential is greatest around timescale has been set.58 Redevelopment • Deprivation levels need to be transport hubs, where office space for of QPR’s Loftus Road ground, for which addressed through various measures: small enterprises could be provided within again there is no timescale, could enable an access-to-work programme, new mixed-use developments. However, estate improvement works. the provision of local employment because of low existing values most of opportunities for people living in estates this development will depend on public Good transport links, plans for and integrating these estates into the sector intervention. development of a balanced mixed- wider area. use environment and employment The Tottenham Hale Retail Park has proved opportunities in the area should all • Potential benefits from the presence of a success in attracting national retailers, support demand for residential properties. both Westfield and of the BBC should and has the potential to become a form the basis for attracting further district centre. This, together with proposed Growth barriers commercial development to the area. improvement of the public realm, could On the demand side Hammersmith & However, the relatively small proportion create potential for further retail and Fulham has a relatively low forecast for of jobs in the media and in creative leisure activity. 62 household growth. Nevertheless, the industry sectors at a time when there is The sites with the most commercial connectivity and high values in the area competition for these sectors from other potential are likely to be around the should entice people to move into the parts of London and elsewhere in the UK proposed new Tottenham Hotspur stadium White City area if good quality stock was indicates the need for caution. at White Hart Lane, with support from the made available. 3: Tottenham Hale Mayor’s Regeneration Fund and Haringey The need to target high deprivation levels Council for transport infrastructure and is central to achieving regeneration and and White Hart Lane, public space improvements.63 The attracting new development. There is a Haringey scheme would include provision of retail need to diversify the housing offer and space including a new supermarket, create more choice for existing and new The adjoining neighbourhoods of offices and housing. A £400m investment residents alike. Tottenham Hale and White Hart by the football club includes significant Lane present potential for substantial funds to tackle local deprivation which Despite its Underground links, internal regeneration and development over could act as a catalyst for regeneration. connectivity at White City is not as good the next 10 years. The area is currently as it might be. The heavy transport characterised by low market values infrastructure - major roads and railway representing image, socio-economic

10 Stratton Street London W1J 8JR GVA I 015

White Hart Lane Rail

Northumberland

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0 Park Rail A10 A1080

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Tottenham A1080 A109 A109

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10 Turnpike A Tottenham Lane Hale Rail Blackhourse A1055 Road

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A504 Seven A503 Sisters A503 Seven St James Street Sisters Rail (London) Rail South Tottenham Rail Centre for Cities 2012. Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright Harringay

and database right 2012. Green Lines A1 © Crown copyright and database rights 2012 Ordnance Survey 0

Proposed entertainment and leisure increased land supply, with larger Funding available through the Mayor’s activities along the Lee Valley Regional sites now allocated for mixed-use and Regeneration Fund could be used to Park and reservoirs, and the proximity residential schemes.66 The Hale Village address this issue. of the Olympic Park provides the development is nearly complete and opportunity to raise the profile of the area, its success could positively influence Significant factors depending upon the extent of Olympic surrounding sites. influencing new legacy effect.61 Growth barriers development Growth barriers Tottenham Hale has been described • There is the potential for commercial Short to medium-term confidence in as “fragmented, dominated by property development in Tottenham if the local property market is significantly traffic, illegible and suffering from an the weakness of the local market can 67 dependent on both the success of unwelcoming environment”. These issues be overcome. Residential mixed-use the Hale Village development and on will be partly addressed by the Transport schemes are expected to be the 68 Tottenham Hotspur’s proposed new for London gyratory project, but more drivers of growth. stadium going ahead. work on public realm and congestion will be needed. • Improvements to the physical Despite proximity to Stratford, limited environment, measures to address transport connections to the Olympic Park Although well connected, rail and deprivation and negative perceptions may constrain the extent to which area Underground into central London are (not helped by the recent riots) and 64 can benefit from the Games. congested. During peak hours the Victoria work to ease congestion on public line is overcrowded and national rail transit will all improve residential 69 Residential development services at local stations are restricted. demand. The Mayor’s Regeneration Some capacity improvements are Growth advantages Fund provides an opportunity to target underway on both Underground and rail, some of these issues. While Tottenham Hale is an important but may not be enough to alleviate the North London transport hub, proposed long-term congestion problem.70 • Success of flagship schemes including public realm upgrades are needed the Hale Village and redevelopment Relatively low house prices have to increase the attractiveness of the of White Hart Lane could be crucial historically restricted residential developer area for residential development. The to changing developer attitudes to interest.71 However, nearby locations in the reconfiguration of the Tottenham Hale the area. west of the borough have higher values, gyratory would deliver high quality public demonstrating the potential to grow • Vacated industrial land provides space as well as increased highway and residential values in this area. opportunities for development. It is 65 bus station capacity. important that change of use decisions Improvements are also needed to parks Release of industrial land around and planning policy is used to support and leisure facilities in order to make has significantly such schemes. the most of recreational resources.72

016 I GVA 10 Stratton Street London W1J 8JR Evolving London – The future shape of the capital Spring 2012

4: Royal Docks, Newham Commercial The Enterprise Zone will be of interest to businesses, through incentives including The Royal Docks is in the midst of a development business rate discounts, simplified long-term post-industrial regeneration Growth advantages planning regulations and provision of programme, following the closure of superfast broadband. the docks in 1981 and extensive public The borough has high land availability sector intervention has proved necessary. and significant public sector support, with Growth barriers A series of major developments have the Olympics’ legacy acting as a spur. It Past and projected employment growth been delivered over the past decade also has political stability and delivers a rates for Newham are mid range against and interest in the area appears to be high rate of planning approvals on the the average for all London boroughs. increasing making the Docks a place to back of a pro-development outlook. Office rents in the Royal Docks are watch over the next decade. Newham Borough Council is promoting currently too low to support speculative The Excel Exhibition Centre, City Airport the Royal Docks as a location for development. Pre lets or build to suit for and the University of East London have distinct business sectors - bio-medical, corporate occupiers will be required to provided a backdrop for a series of pharmaceutical, computer and telecoms move beyond modest levels of provision. new hotels, higher density housing and low carbon. The Excel Exhibition developments and the Siemens Centre. Centre has recently completed expansion work to provide new hotel capacity. The Public sector sites are now being brought Siemens Pavilion project, announced to the market at Silvertown Quay and the in May 2010 is now under construction. Royals Business Park. A series of industrial A major mixed-use development at sites are being promoted for change of Minoco Wharf was submitted for planning use by the private sector. permission in 2011. There are still hurdles to overcome. The area’s proximity to the main Olympic Deprivation and unemployment levels site and its profile through staging events is are above London average. Employment already improving and helping to change is heavily dependent on activity around public perception of the area. City Airport and Excel, and on the public sector. Most of the land along the Transport improvements - the Crossrail riverfront is still in heavy industrial use. station at Custom House; the cross-river Opportunities arise from the availability cable car; recently announced plans for a of large waterfront development sites tunnel between the from the presence of the airport and from and Silvertown; and a new ferry crossing improving public transport connections. between Beckton and Thamesmead73 - will significantly increase accessibility.

A13

A112

A117

A13

A124 Beckton M1 M11 Canning Town

Custom

A117 Royal House A1020 Victoria Gallions M40 A40 Reach A1020

A Prince 1011 Beckton Cyprus Regent A117 Royal Docks Royal Park Albert M4 London

A1020 A112 City Airport

A1020 King George V West Pontoon M3 Silvertown Royal Docks Dock A112

A117

A205

A206

A206 Centre for Cities 2012. Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright Woolwich and database right 2012. © Crown copyrightDockyard and database Rail rights 2012Woolwich Ordnance Survey Arsenal Rail

10 Stratton Street London W1J 8JR GVA I 017 The pace of development in the Enterprise and restricts demand, although The DLR provides direct connections to Zone may largely depend on anchor the Olympics present a significant Canary Wharf and Stratford, national rail occupiers committing to the area within opportunity to raise the profile and provides quick links to the City, London the next couple of years.74 change perceptions of the residential Bridge and Waterloo and the recently offer in the Royal Docks. completed East London line extension has Residential growth – advantages provided new direct services across the • Housing benefit and affordable rent and barriers Thames to Shoreditch and south to West reforms, in their proposed format, are Croydon from New Cross Gate. Another Proximity and connectivity to Canary likely to create an influx of residents East London line branch will connect the Wharf via Canning Town station gives the unable to rent elsewhere in Central area to Clapham Junction and the rest of western side of the Royal Docks significant London and parts of West London. West London before the end of 2012. potential for residential development. These potential impacts need to be Crossrail will further improve journey times monitored closely. Recent studies suggest that Deptford 75 to central London. Creek is not reaching the employment If commercial development succeeds 5. Deptford Creek or population densities that might be expected for places with comparable it could have a knock on effect on Deptford Creek has been recognised transport accessibility.78 This finding, perceptions of Newham more widely, for some years as having development which also applies to a lesser extent to potentially releasing significant residential potential and significant change has Lewisham town centre, suggests that the development capacity in the rest of the already occurred. Major schemes, in development capacity of these areas has borough, but this process will take time. particular at Convoy’s Wharf, suggest the not been fully realised. development context for the area may be Significant factors about to evolve significantly. The area has influencing development major advantages in its relative proximity to Canary Wharf and to the City via • Previous research into the London Docklands Light Railway (DLR), national rail 76 Plan Opportunity Areas by the LDA and overground stations in the area. suggested that the Royal Docks will require significant public sector intervention to facilitate development. Since then much of that intervention has been forthcoming: new proposed transport links and the granting of Enterprise Zone status have the potential to improve the viability of development in the area.77 • The London Borough of Newham’s political stability and pro-development attitude make an important contribution to developer confidence around Stratford and the immediate area around Excel/ City Airport. This is yet to spread significantly beyond these two areas. • The delivery of the recently proposed river crossing for the Royal Docks would help make the area more attractive for development. However, road connections to the west and across the Docks are also likely to need improvement. • The Enterprise Zone may help unlock the commercial development but growth targets suggest its impact is likely to be gradual. • Relatively high deprivation still affects the attractiveness of the area, particularly to prospective residents

018 I GVA 10 Stratton Street London W1J 8JR Evolving London – The future shape of the capital Spring 2012

Growth barriers Deptford Creek has been recognised for some Continued effort will be needed to years as having development potential and improve perceptions of these areas and upgrade the physical environment in order significant change has already occurred to increase demand for housing and to improve viability. Commercial Growth advantages Deprivation levels are relatively high with development Housing values are relatively strong in over 70 percent of people living in a the area and Deptford Creek combines neighbourhood amongst the 40 percent Growth advantages and barriers good access to employment with most deprived in London, and Job relative affordability. Ambitious housing Seekers Allowance claimant count above Deptford Creek is currently home to the London average. small business and arts uses. Strong targets reflect the council’s residential and improving transport accessibility development aspirations for the area, Significant factors is likely to be a key factor in attracting with major schemes underway south of development. The eastern part of the the Creek. influencing new area has potential to benefit from The Convoy’s Wharf site is the largest development proximity to the more dynamic property site at Deptford Creek and the key to • Prospects for retail and leisure-led market in neighbouring Greenwich town unlocking riverfront access in the area. development in Deptford could be centre, a cultural and creative hub, and Planning approval was granted in 2005, improved through closer development this could have a knock-on effect for the but progress then stalled. Consultation links to the growing Greenwich town remainder of the Creek. Recent public took place during 2011 on new planning centre market. realm improvements in Deptford town proposals to provide up to 3,500 homes, centre may contribute to making the local with office, leisure and retail space. • Development potential around the DLR 79 retail market more attractive. and Overground stations has not been The delivery of existing permissions will utilised to full capacity. Deptford Creek, like neighbouring New generate further confidence in the area Cross or Greenwich town centre, is not a and may boost values. If this happens • Public intervention, for example via 80 significant office location. there are a significant number of smaller the Get Britain Building investment Its regeneration potential lies in its sites, many of which are currently home to programme, may be required in relative proximity to Canary Wharf and low value industrial premises, which have order to help stalled residential the City, which could drive a new and potential for redevelopment when the schemes proceed. improved residential offer and improved market is strong enough. shopping facilities.

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Deptford Creek Greenwich Deptford Rail Rail M3 A206

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A2210 A206 Centre for Cities 2012. Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright A2 and database right 2012. © Crown copyright and database rights 2012 Ordnance Survey

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A236 A23 A222 A213

M1 A213 M11

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Centre for Cities 2012. Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright Waddon and database right 2012. Rail A212 © Crown copyright and database rights 2012 Ordnance Survey A236 A232 A212 A232 6: Croydon town centre Lynch, Direct Line and the UK Border and Whitgift shopping centres Agency. A wide range of office stock from and small businesses on neighbouring Croydon town centre is the second largest low cost managed work space to newly streets. Relatively high rents and low in London.81 Following substantial post- refurbished high specification space vacancy rates83 indicate strong demand. war office and retail growth, it now faces is available. However future growth is likely to require the challenge of redefining its purpose higher end retailers to attract shoppers, Croydon Council is seen as in the wake of reduced corporate office which should lead to expansion of the entrepreneurial and pro-development, activity and public sector job losses.82 catchment area and build market share.84 setting up a Local Asset Backed Vehicle Surplus office stock means the role of the Recently reported interest from both with John Laing to develop key publicly- town centre is being reconsidered, as a Westfield and Hammerson would suggest owned sites over time and commissioning place to live. Major mixed-use schemes that a new era of retail development in masterplanning work to co-ordinate a are being promoted by the private sector the town centre is beginning, reinforcing development vision for Croydon. and Croydon Council that could have a the town as a dominant South London significant impact. Private sector investment includes Abstract shopping centre. Security’s proposed new 100,000 sq ft Growth barriers – office and retail Commercial Grade A office scheme at Dingwall Road, development adjacent to . A long In recent years Croydon has seen planned Stanhope-led scheme at Ruskin businesses moving either nearer to the Growth advantages – office Square, also next to East Croydon station centre of London or to locations further is proposed to include a new 200,000 sq 85 Fast rail connections to Central London, outside the capital. Those relocating ft office building, 123 flats, half of which 86 and ; rapid road include BT, Philips and Nestlé. will be affordable homes, and a new access to the M25 and a South London There is a surplus of post-war office . hub for bus and tram have helped stock and estimates suggest that Croydon town centre become a regionally Growth advantages – retail vacancy rates are at least 12 percent. significant office and retail location. A large proportion of the office space Scale and accessibility, both from central The recent East London line extension vacated is unlikely to be re-let in the near London and outside the capital, is the has improved Croydon’s accessibility future. In these circumstances office town centre’s biggest advantage. even further. stock needs to be reduced. The high street is focused around the In 2008 Croydon had the fourth largest stock of offices after West End, Canary Wharf and the City, exceeding Reading, Scale and accessibility, both from central Milton Keynes and Brighton. Major London and outside the capital, is the town occupiers include: AIG, RBS, Lloyds, Merrill centre’s biggest advantage

020 I GVA 10 Stratton Street London W1J 8JR Evolving London – The future shape of the capital Spring 2012

Croydon

Competition from out of town retail schemes in and around Central • Successful repositioning will require centres, given the rapid rail and motorway Croydon such as the Bauhaus project. expansion of the retail offer, particularly access from Croydon, is a challenge. Berkeley’s Saffron Square scheme is being the higher end retailers that increasingly West End, and now East End, shopping constructed, and Menta has secured a anchor shopping destinations. destinations are also easily accessible. planning consent for a 55-storey tower to • Office oversupply in the area should The overall public realm and ambiance of the east of East Croydon station at Cherry be addressed through a combination the town centre needs to be addressed in Orchard Road. Other major mixed-use of different interventions. Change of tandem with the retail and leisure offer. schemes are pursuing residential use already considered by the council led consents. The perception of Croydon is a significant may have to be supplemented by problem. Its wider image, reinforced by Growth barriers mothballing or demolition. the 2011 riots, reflects deprivation and The civil disturbances of summer 2011 • Residential development in the town unemployment levels in the town centre were damaging to the public perception centre may depend upon upgrading higher than the London averages.87 of Croydon. The residential market also overall quality of public realm on Outdated public realm, transport facilities faces a structural problem. Even though streets and within shopping centres. and building stock are significant issues in affordability of housing is higher than An ongoing programme of public the centre.88 Major remodelling is planned average across London, the proportion of realm improvements is being pursued to overcome physical divisions across the stock in the town centre comprising flats is by the borough. New schemes and town centre created by the railway line, unusually high for outer London.89 renovations are an opportunity to two dual carriageways and the Whitgift create stronger and better connections Centre. Overall a modernisation and Significant factors through the town centre. improvement programme is essential if the town centre if to be fully revitalised. influencing development • Croydon town centre’s good Residential development transport links and the Council’s support for major development Growth advantages are significant advantages. Overall Croydon is well positioned to • The retail market has potential to attract residential development primarily expand significantly and recent due to its transport accessibility. Recently developer and retailer interest are the private sector has advanced a encouraging signs that this potential number of higher density residential could be realised.

10 Stratton Street London W1J 8JR GVA I 021 8. Conclusion

The next 10 years will This research has considered the • Lewisham combined implications of the main • Newham see London experience factors influencing this change. From this major physical and socio- we have drawn a number of conclusions. • Southwark These have implications for investment • Tower Hamlets economic change. The decisions and policy makers - both at nature and geographic Authority and Borough Although demand in all sectors will level. remain strong in the central boroughs that characteristics of this have a track record of attracting large Those boroughs that are likely to see commercial or residential investment, change will be influenced the greatest change or have the potential the greatest market change over the for significant change over the next by a range of factors, next 10 years is likely to be found around decade are: including prevailing the edges of central London and at new market trends, investment • Camden transport hubs. in transport and • Croydon Around the city centre the market push eastwards – around Farringdon-Smithfield • Hackney infrastructure and policy Shoreditch, Dalston, Old Street and changes and attitudes. • Hammersmith & Fulham Aldgate East – is expected to continue and the strength of the West London • Haringey market is likely to be cemented by the • Islington commencement of redevelopment at Earl’s Court.

022 I GVA 10 Stratton Street London W1J 8JR Evolving London – The future shape of the capital Spring 2012

However, the area of greatest change The economic success of London over Overall, London’s economic centre is is likely to be south of the river - inner the next 10 years depends not just on the growing along the river and the major Southwark/ Bankside/ Bermondsey in traditionally strong market locations, but transport corridors. The greatest potential particular and Nine Elms/ Battersea further also on the success of the central fringe exists where new transport investment will west in Wandsworth. The momentum areas and on places such as this report’s be made, especially around new of change seen over the last 10-15 six ‘Places to watch’. These are beyond the stations/interchanges. years in Islington and Camden has yet city centre and city fringe where market, This provides opportunities for the to take hold south of the river, but that transport and policy factors will combine boroughs affected to be proactive momentum is likely to increase over the to create real opportunity for property in facilitating and engaging with next decade as the effects of , market change and regeneration. investors and the development industry improvements at London Bridge station, The six ‘Places to watch’ are: to maximise this economic and Bermondsey Spa etc. are felt and the regeneration potential. early developments appear at Nine Elms • Old Oak Common/Park Royal and in . If this can be achieved, London, and • White City these ‘places to watch’, will be very Places to watch • Tottenham Hale/White Hart Lane different in 10 years’ time. Outside Central London and its • Royal Docks fringe areas, the key to any significant • Deptford Creek future transformation will be a positive planning regime, major land releases • Croydon town centre and transport infrastructure investment – particularly significant new transport hubs and stations.

10 Stratton Street London W1J 8JR GVA I 023 London West End 10 Stratton Street London W1J 8JR

London City 80 Cheapside London EC2V 6EE References Rose Building Third Floor 1 Throughout this report commercial employment refers to office and re- 46 Ibid tail employment. To estimate commercial employment, employment 47 GVA/GLA (2009) Park Royal Opportunity Area Profile 16 Howard Street in the: distribution, hotels and catering, transport and communications, Belfast BT1 6PA financial and business services and other (mainly public) services sec- 48 Hammersmith & Fulham Council, Mayor of London, TfL (2011) White tors has been considered. The agriculture, manufacturing, construction City Opportunity Area Planning Framework. and engineering sectors have been excluded as these are likely to 49 Ibid. account for very little or no office or retail employment. Birmingham 50 Hammersmith & Fulham Council, Mayor of London, TfL (2011) White 2 Own analysis of housing targets, Mayor of London (2011) The London City Opportunity Area Planning Framework 3 Brindleyplace Plan, London: GLA, p83 51 Ibid. Birmingham B1 2JB 3 Centre for Cities interviews and roundtable 52 Ibid. 4 Centre for Cities interviews. See also Parkinson M, Ball M, Blake N, Key T (2009) The Credit Crunch and Regeneration: Impact and Implications, 53 LDA, (2009) White City Opportunity Area Profile, London: LDA. Bristol London, DCLG 54 Centre for Cities interviews 5 St Catherine’s Court (2011) Economic and property market review, London 55 Hammersmith & Fulham Council, Mayor of London, TfL (2011) White Berkeley Place 6 Centre for Cities interviews and round table City Opportunity Area Planning Framework (Consultation version) London, GLA 7 London Office Policy Review, op cit, see for example p viii Bristol BS8 1BQ 56 LDA (2009) White City Opportunity Area Profile 8 February 2012 57 Ibid. 9 ONS mid 2010 estimate 58 Hammersmith & Fulham Council, Mayor of London, TfL (2011) White 10 ONS population projections (2008 based) City Opportunity Area Planning Framework One Kingsway 11 ONS mid-year estimates, GLA and own analysis http://data.london.gov. 59 CLG (2011) The English Indices of Deprivation 2010, own analysis Cardiff CF10 3AN uk/datastorefiles/visualisations/atlas/ons-mye-2010-coc/atlas.html 60 GLA (2011) Mayor investing over £41 million to secure a bright future 12 Mayor of London (2011) The London Plan, London: GLA for Tottenham, (www.london.gov.uk/priorities/public-order-disturbances/ Edinburgh 13 Gleeson J (2011) Housing a growing city, London: GLA financial-support-businesses/mayors-50m-regeneration-fund) 61 Quayside House 14 ONS/CLG household projections (2008 based), own analysis ibid 15 For example, Fenton A (2011) Housing Benefit reform and the spatial 62 LDA (2011) Upper Lee Valley Opportunity Area Planning Framework. 127 Fountainbridge segregation of low-income households in London, Cambridge: London University of Cambridge and London Councils (2011) Briefing note: the 63 GLA (2011) Mayor Calls on Spurs to cement their commitment to Edinburgh EH3 9QG effect of the cap on Local Housing Allowance in London and ways to Tottenham, www.london.gov.uk/media/press_releases_mayoral/mayor- mitigate the impact, London: London Councils calls-spurs-cement-their-commitment-tottenham 16 Centre for Cities interviews and roundtable. See also, Fenton op cit. 64 LDA, (2009) Upper Lee Valley Opportunity Area Profile, London: LDA 17 Centre for Cities interviews 206 St Vincent Street 65 GLA/LDA (2011) Upper Lee Valley Opportunity Area Planning Framework 18 Centre for Cities interviews. See also Savills (2011) Development, (Consultation draft), London: GLA Investment and New Homes Focus: A question of balance; matching Glasgow G2 5SG 66 LDA (2011) Upper Lee Valley Opportunity Area Planning Framework. development viability with housing need, London, Savills London 19 Spry M and Furlonger N (2011), ‘Business space to offices – the oppor- 67 GLA/LDA (2011) Upper Lee Valley Opportunity Area Planning Framework tunity in London’ in Planning in London, Issue 79, London: LPDF (Consultation draft), London: GLA, p. 104. London 20 CLG New Homes Bonus Allocations, own analysis City Point First Floor 68 TFL website (2011), Tottenham Hale Gyratory (http://www.tfl.gov.uk/ 29 King Street 21 See Larkin, K and Wilcox Z (2011) Capital gains: What doe the Local corporate/projectsandschemes/13315.aspx) Government Resource Review mean for London?, London: Centre 79 GLA/LDA (2011) Upper Lee Valley Opportunity Area Planning Framework Leeds LS1 2HL for Cities (Consultation draft), London: GLA 22 Centre for Cities interviews and roundtable 70 Centre for Cities interviews. See also, Mayor of London/GLA (2010) 23 Centre for Cities – Future London Development Index Mayor’s Transport Strategy, London: GLA Mercury Court 24 Centre for Cities – Future London Development Index 71 LDA, (2009) Upper Lea Valley Opportunity Area Profile, London: LDA Tithebarn Street 25 Centre for Cities – Future London Development Index 72 ibid 26 Centre for Cities – Future London Development Index 73 http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/01/12/boris-johnson-pledges- Liverpool L2 2QP new-thames-tunnel-silvertown_n_1201259.htm 27 February 2012 74 Centre for Cities/GVA Round table 28 Centre for Cities – Future London Development Index 75 Centre for Cities interviews 29 Centre for Cities – Future London Development Index 76 LDA (2009) 81 Fountain Street 30 Centre for Cities – Future London Development Index 77 Centre for Cities interviews Manchester M2 2EE 31 Centre for Cities – Future London Development Index 78 LDA, (2009) Deptford Creek Opportunity Area Profile, London: LDA, 32 February 2012 (2009) Lewisham Opportunity Area Profile, London: LDA. 33 Centre for Cities – Future London Development Index Newcastle 79 LDA, (2009) Deptford Creek Opportunity Area Profile, London: LDA, Central Square 34 Centre for Cities – Future London Development Index (2009) Lewisham Opportunity Area Profile, London: LDA. 35 Larkin, K. Swinney, P. Wilcox, Z. (2011_ What Would Maggie Do? Lon- 80 Ramidus with Roger Tym (2009) London Office Policy Review, London: Forth Street don: Centre for Cities GLA, pp114-6 Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 3PJ 36 Centre for Cities – Future London Development Index 81 Mesken, K., Tochtermann, L., Wilcox, Z., (2011) Linked In: Realising Croydon’s potential now, Centre for Cities. London. 37 Centre for Cities interviews 82 ibid 38 Mesken, K., Tochtermann, L., Wilcox, Z., (2011) Linked In: Realising Croydon’s potential now, Centre for Cities. London. 83 LDA (2009) Croydon Opportunity Area Profile 39 ONS/GLA (2011) Business Register Employment Survey 2010: London 84 Ibid. 40 GLA (2011) Park Royal Opportunity Area Planning Framework 85 Mesken, K., Tochtermann, L., Wilcox, Z., (2011) Linked In: Realising Croydon’s potential now, Centre for Cities. London. 41 GLA (2009) Park Royal Opportunity Area Profile 86 http://www.freeofficefinder.com/officemarketnews/nestle-leaves- 42 http://www.peri.ltd.uk/projects.cfm/fuseaction/showreference/refer- croydon-hq-for-new-office-rental-in-crawley/ ence_ID/1089/referencecategory_ID/65.cfm 87 Centre for Cities interviews and roundtable 43 Department for Transport (2010) High Speed Rail. Presentation to the Parliament 88 Centre for Cities interviews and roundtable 44 LDA (2009) Park Royal Opportunity Area Profile 89 LDA, (2009) Croydon Opportunity Area Profile, London: LDA 45 GLA (2011) Park Royal Opportunity Area Planning Framework

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